Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -158 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VEGAS. I played on the 'under' in Game 1 of this series. It didn't look good early, as the Stars scored right out of the gate. However, that proved to be the only goal of the entire game. Naturally, the O/U line has now dropped. That being the case, I now believe that the value lies with the Knights, who are going to be desperate to get back in the series. The Stars have only recorded two other shutouts all season. In both cases, they lost their next game. Coincidentally, one of those losses came against Vegas. The Knights are 9-4 after scoring one goal or less. Going back further finds them at 30-14 (+11.6) in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and even up the series. |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -147 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. By now, the Islanders have done more than enough to show that they're to be taken seriously. That said, I feel that they're going to be in over their heads here. While the Lightning won't have Stamkos, they've still got arguably more talent than the Isles. With the Isles playing Game 7 against Philly on Saturday, the Lightning are coming in as the more rested team. Islanders coach Barry Trotz ackwnowledged: "The Lightning have been off for a little bit, they're fresh, they've been waiting for our series to end. They went to Edmonton yesterday, they probably practiced. The time change that we're going to have, all that, that's what we're going to deal with today. They probably had meetings today on us, if not, maybe they had it yesterday, I don't know. But they're a little bit ahead of us because they've been watching and scouting..." Expect TB to draw first blood. |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Vegas UNDER the total. The Stars got into some high-scoring games against Colorado. The Knights are a different kind of team though and they've been winning with defense and goaltending of late. The final three games of the Vegas/Vancouver series all stayed below the total. Scores were 2-1, 4-0 and 3-0. Vegas shutdown the Canucks when it really counted. Note that the UNDER was 3-1 when the Knights were in the Conf. finals last. Also, the UNDER is 16-9 when they're off a shutout win. Meanwhile, Dallas has seen the UNDER go 46-26-2 over the years, after allowing four or more goals in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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09-05-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -227 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals) While the price is obviously a bit steep, given how tight these games are, it could easily be much higher. Indeed, four of the past five have been decided by a single goal. The last three games have had scores of 3-2, 4-3 and 5-4. Though I like the Flyers to win outright, there's no reason not to expect another close one. Don't be surprised if/when this one finds it way to OT, the Flyers picking up AT LEAST the 'puck-line cover.' |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing Dallas/Colorado UNDER the total. This has been a high-scoring series. That changed in Game 6 though. Here's an excerpt of what I said, prior to that game: "Recent games have featured one team falling behind big in the first period. Dallas was down 5-0 after the first last game and Colorado was down 3-0 the previous game. Thats led to the trailing team having to open things up and ultimately to very high-scoring games. In turn, those results have caused the O/U lines to keep getting higher. While I've admittedly been on the wrong side of some of these totals, I expect a much lower-score in this one. That said, I believe that the O/U line is generously high and offering us excellent value. Look for a closer first period to lead to a tighter game ..." Sure enough, the first period was closer. The score was 1-1 after the first and 2-1 after the second. I feel the same way about Game 7, as I don't expect an "early blowout" like we saw earlier in the series. Expect another tight one, the final combined score staying beneath the big number. |
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09-03-20 | Golden Knights -225 v. Canucks | 0-4 | Loss | -225 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VEGAS. I believe that the Knights are big favorites for good reason and I expect them to close out the series here. The Canucks were fortunate to even be in the game last time out as they were getting badly outshot. Vegas is 8-3 after scoring one goal or less. Going back further finds that the Knights are a dominant 29-13 (+13) in that situation. Indeed, they rarely get held down twice in a row. Even factoring in the last result, the Knights are 67-36 against divisional opponents the past 2+ seasons, while the Canucks are 33-50. The Canucks have clearly taken a big step and can hold their heads high. However, their season ends here. |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche -112 v. Stars | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. Its been a strange series. I still believe that the Avs are the better team though. As I mentioned before last game, I'm definitely not writing them off. Speaking of last game, off that big win, they're now 8-5 (+5.1) the past few seasons, when trailing in a playoff series. This team will not quit and absolutely still believes. Both teams allow an average of 2.7 goals overall. However, the Stars score 2.7 themselves while the Avs score 3.5. Indeed, Colorado has been the stronger team all season. Expect that to be the case again tonight. |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/Dallas UNDER the total. Recent games have featured one team falling behind big in the first period. Dallas was down 5-0 after the first last game and Colorado was down 3-0 the previous game. Thats led to the trailing team having to open things up and ultimately to very high-scoring games. In turn, those results have caused the O/U lines to keep getting higher. While I've admittedly been on the wrong side of some of these totals, I expect a game and a much lower-score in this one. That said, I beleive that the O/U line is generously high and offering us excellent value. Look for a closer first period to lead to a tighter game, goals being harder to come by and the final combined score staying beneath the big number. |
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09-01-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -216 | 2-1 | Loss | -216 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm backing VEGAS on Tuesday. The Knights are deeper and I believe they've proven to be better. They won with defense on Saturday and won with the offense the following day. The Canucks squandered a golden opportunity in that Sunday game. Indeed, Vancouver took a lead into the third period and easily could have tied the series. It was not to be though as they suffered a deflating loss. I expect them to have a very difficult time recovering from it. Of course, the Canucks can hold their heads high. Even with a loss here, they can return home proud of their efforts. Look for the Canucks to do just that as the Knights punch their ticket to the next round. |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 3-6 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Colorado UNDER the total. The Avs fell behind 3-0 early yesterday and that led to a high-scoring game. I expect goals to be far harder to come by in this one. The Avs have seen the UNDER go 8-5 when playing the second of b2b games. As for Dallas, the last time (8/14 vs. Calgary) that the Stars played two games in two days, they lost 2-0. Don't be surprised to see them have trouble scoring against a determined Colorado team again here. |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Avs found themselves in too big of an early hole yesterday and were unable to dig themselves out. They're now also in a pretty deep hole in the series. I'm not writing them off quite yet though and fully expect to see their very best effort today. Even after falling behind 3-0 yesterday, the Avs still almost found a way back. This is a very strong team, on both sides of the puck. There was a gap in between games before yesterday and that may have contributed to the slow first period. No excuses for the Avs today though and the extra rest prior to yesterday should help with the b2b situation. Speaking of b2b spots, the last time (8/14 vs. Calgary) that the Stars played two games in two days, they lost 2-0. Don't be surprised to see them have trouble scoring against a determined Colorado team again here. |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/Dallas UNDER the total. The fact that is been a high-scoring series has led to additional line value. Thats significant, particularly as I expect this to be the lowest scoring game of the series thus far. Prior to stopping these teams had been scoring. However, the break, casused by the protest, figures to slow down that offensive momentum. The last two times that the Stars allowed more than four goals, their next game had scores of 4-0 and 2-1. Going back a little further finds that the Stars have allowed more than four goals on five separate occasions, since 12/22. In all five of those instances, the next game finished with five or fewer combined goals. Expect this one to do the same. |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights -183 v. Canucks | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VEGAS. The Canucks have already exceeded expectations. I expect them to come back to earth this evening. The Knights are 13-6 (+4.4) off a loss by two or more goals. They're also 20-11, after allowing four or more goals. While the Knights outshot opposing teams by an average of 34.7 to 28.9 this season, the Canucks were outshot 33.7 to 30.7. The Knights are coming off just their second loss in weeks. They immediately bounced back from the previous one and I expect them to do the same tonight. Lay it. |
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08-29-20 | Lightning v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing TB/Boston UNDER the total. After getting shellacked for seven goals last time out, its safe to say we'll see a stingier Boston team this afternoon. Indeed, I expect goals to be at a premium. Considering that they only average 2.3 goals themselves, during the playoffs, the Bruins know that they'll need to be better defensively. The last time that the Bruins allowed more than four goals (March 7th against these same Lightning) they responded by winning their next game 2-0. It remains to be seen whether or not they'll bounce back with a win here, but I do expect another low-scoring affair. |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Colorado/Dallas UNDER the total. After back to back high-scoring games to start this series, I expect goals to be at a premium in this one. These teams are still both capable of being very stingy. After giving up five in b2b games, Colorado will be hard to score on today. Prior to this series, off their last two losses, the Avs allowed 0 and 1 goal in their next game. Even factoring in the first two games, the UNDER is still a profitable 18-9-1 in Dallas divisional games. Prior to Game 1, seven straight meetings between these teams had produced five goals or less. Expect things to return to 'normal' here. |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Avs are in a must-win spot. I expect their very best effort and am not writing them off in this series yet. Colorado pummeled Arizona and may have come in a little cocky. There will be none of that here though. Rather, the Avs will be 100% focused on the task at hand, all business. Look for them to bounce back and move to 16-7 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. |
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08-26-20 | Islanders v. Flyers -111 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Down a game, I believe the pick'em price tag provides excellent value with what will be a desperate Flyer team. Flyers are 10-5 after scoring one goal or less and 16-8 (+9.2) after allowing four or more. Game 1 notwithstanding, they've been stronger than the Isles this season. They responded to each loss in the Montreal series by bouncing back with a victory. Look for them to do exactly that again this afternoon. |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -157 | 5-2 | Loss | -157 | 33 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Stars scored the upset in Game 1, a 5-3 win. That will ensure we get the best effort from the Avs here. They're 15-6 (+8.3) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. While the Stars showed that they won't be a pushover, the Avs have been the superior team all season. Both teams allow an average of only 2.6 goals. However, while the Stars average 2.7 themselves, the Avs average 3.4 goals per game. Indeed, this team is very strong on both offense and defense. Off their last two losses, the Avs responded by winning 3-0 and 7-1. Expect more of the same here. |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Colorado UNDER the total. While Game 1 was high-scoring, these teams are both capable of being very stingy. After giving up five in the opener, Colorado will be hard to score on today. Off their last two losses, the Avs have allowed 0 and 1 goal in their next game. Even factoring in Game 1, the UNDER is still a profitable 18-8-1 in Dallas divisional games. Prior to Game 1, seven straight meetings between these teams had produced five goals or less. Expect things to return to 'normal' here. |
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -180 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VEGAS. The Canucks deserve a lot of credit for making it this far. However, the Knights are playing at another level and I believe that they represent a big step up in class from the teams that Vancouver has faced. Now 7-1 in the playoffs, Vegas is outscoring teams by an average of 3.7 to 2.6. Vegas has taken eight of 10 meetings with the Canucks. Look for the extra rest to benefit the Knights as they continue their surge and take Game 1. |
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08-21-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on St. Louis/Vancouver UNDER the total. As of this writeup, the Blues haven't announced who their starting goalie will be. I expect it will be Binnington. Either way, whether or not its Binnington or Allan between the pipes, I expect the entire team to commit to their best defensive effort of the season. Yes, the Blues gave up four goals last game. However, they'd only allowed three in the previous two games combined, winning 3-1 and 3-2. Expect a similar effort in this one, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting. |
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08-21-20 | Blues -129 v. Canucks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -129 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Facing elimination, I expect the very best from the defending champs in this one. Whether or not its Binnington or Allan between the pipes, I expect an entire team effort. This is brand new territory for the Canucks; learning how to win isn't always easy. The Blues, on the other hand, are battle tested in the playoffs. Look for that experience to prove key as the champs dig deep and force a Game 7. |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -129 v. Canadiens | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. There's getting to be some bad blood in this one. The Habs have lost Gallagher to a broken jaw after a cross-check to the face, one of numerous incidents both ways. Flyer fans are fuming after Suzuki tapped their goalie on the head after a Montreal goal. All the ill will aside, I expect the superior team to ultimately finish on top. While they found a way to get this far, the Canadiens were the lowest ranked team to make the postseason, 24th in the league at the pause. While losing Gallagher may fire up the Canadiens a bit, he'll be missed on the ice, as he was just finally getting going and was a player who had scored 22 times in the reg. season, one who brings a lot to Montreal. Expect him to be missed as the Flyers take care of business. |
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08-19-20 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -129 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Colorado UNDER the total. While the Avs erupted for seven goals on Monday, the Coyotes are still a stingy team. Facing elimination, I expect them to respond with a much better defensive effort. That doesn't mean that they're going to be able to score though. They got four goals in their win but two of those were via the empty net. In the other three games vs. the Avs, the Coyotes have managed 0, 1 and 2 goals. Indeed, while they're more known for their offense, the Avs are capable of being extremely stingy themselves. The Coyotes were already without a top line forward (Schmaltz) and now Conor Garland may miss this one. That would be a blow as he was their reg. season goal-scoring leader and scored the game winner in the Coyotes' lone win. Either way, expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -171 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. As many of you know, I've been riding the Lightning the last few games. While the games have been close, I feel that they've shown and established themselves to be the superior team. Columbus is a gritty team that doesn't quit. However, the long hard series against Toronto, the 5-OT game and now a superior opponent have all caught up to the Jackets. This series ends today. |
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08-17-20 | Avalanche v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. Arizona doesn't necessarily have the quality to open things up against the talented Avalanche. Instead, the Coyotes try to bottle things up and be ultra stingy with their defense and goaltending. After the Coyotes blocked 27 shots (a season high) last game, Colorado coach Bednar commented: "It definitely speaks to Arizona's grittiness and the way they're playing and the commitment they have and the sacrifices they're making, no question. They're getting in shooting lanes all over the place." Sure, the last game finished at 4-2. However, keep in mind that two of those were empty net goals. The previous two games had scores of 3-0 and 3-2. Neither team's power play has been converting. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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08-17-20 | Lightning -153 v. Blue Jackets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. Here's what I said prior to the last game: "The price on the Lightning has come down a bit from its opener and I now believe that the superior team, in my opinion, is providing us with value. The Lightning took their foot off the gas a little in Game 2 and paid for it. Series tied, I expect them to be all business the entire way. I still feel that the 5-OT game combined with the 5-game series against the Leafs will eventually take a toll on Columbus. Lets not forget that Columbus was outscored 187-180 this season while TB outscored opposing teams by a 245-195 margin. That +50 goal differential was second to only Boston (+53) in the entire NHL. Tampa rolls." While the score showed a close game, Tampa was in control of Game 3 the entire way. I do believe that the Lightning are superior and that the Toronto series is indeed catching up to Columbus. Tampa wins, again. |
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08-16-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on St. Louis/Vancouver UNDER the total. The last game was 3-2 with less than 10 seconds left in the game but a late goal forced OT and sent the final score above the number. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair here. The Canucks have seen the UNDER go 17-10 the past 27 times that they had seen their previous three games finish above the total. Remember, that prior to this series, three of the previous four meetings between these teams had produced fewer than 5.5 goals. Look for goals to be at a premium. |
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08-16-20 | Blues -124 v. Canucks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST LOUIS. Down 2-0, this is obviously a must win spot for the Blues. They cannot afford to go down 3-0. Normally, we have to pay a premium for a team in a must win spot. Yet, we're getting the Blues at a fairly reasonable price, particularly when considering that they're the defending champs. Even after the tough Game 2 loss, the Blues are still 5-1 the past six times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Expect their playoff experience to be evident here, as they elevate their game and get back into the series. |
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08-16-20 | Capitals -115 v. Islanders | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Down 2-0, this is obviously a must win spot for the Capitals. They cannot afford to go down 3-0. Normally, we have to pay a premium for a team in a must win spot. Yet, we're getting the Caps at a pick-em price. I expect their very best effort and believe that we're getting excellent value. Keep in mind that the Caps had a +25 goal differential (240-215) while the Isles were outscored by a goal, 193-192. While this is obviously a new season and situation, I believe that the Caps were the superior team over the course of a season for a reason. Don't count them out quite yet. |
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08-15-20 | Golden Knights v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Vegas/Chicago UNDER the total. While the last game did produce seven goals (the 7th coming in OT) I believe that this O/U line is generously high and I'm expecting a lower-scoring Game 3. Keep in mind that the opener was a 4-1 final. Even with the Game 2 result, the Knights have still seen the UNDER go 9-3-1 in their short history, when leading in a playoff series. Don't be surprised when those stats improve this evening. |
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08-15-20 | Lightning -154 v. Blue Jackets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. The price on the Lightning has come down a bit from its opener and I now believe that the superior team, in my opinion, is providing us with value. The Lightning took their foot off the gas a little in Game 2 and paid for it. Series tied, I expect them to be all business the entire way. I still feel that the 5-OT game combined with the 5-game series against the Leafs will eventually take a toll on Columbus. Lets not forget that Columbus was outscored 187-180 this season while TB outscored opposing teams by a 245-195 margin. That +50 goal differential was second to only Boston (+53) in the entire NHL. Tampa rolls. |
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08-14-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -120 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington. After squandering Game 1, the Caps are going to be all business here. They've been here before. The Caps are 5-1 (+3.5) the last six times that they trailed in a playoff series. During that span, they're 64-44 when playing with 'revenge' and 50-31 after having allowed four or more goals in their previous game. The Caps outscored teams by a 3.3 to 3.0 margin on the road this season while the Isles were outscored by a 2.7 to 2.5 average margin, when playing away from home. Caps bounce back. 10* |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -140 | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. After dropping Game 1, the Blues are going to be all business here. This is a playoff battle-tested team, one which isn't going to roll over. The Canucks, on the other hand, are in unfamiliar territory. The Canucks have a big top line but not so much after that. However, the Blues showed an ability to slow it down, when playing 5-on-5. Expect the champs to slow down that top-line at even strength, while using a disciplined approach to limit their time in the penalty box, en route to a highly important victory. |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver/St. Louis UNDER the total. The Canucks scored five goals in the opener. Don't expect a repeat performance. The Canucks have a big top line but not so much after that. However, the Blues showed an ability to slow it down, when playing 5-on-5. Expect the champs to slow down that top-line at even strength, while using a disciplined approach to limit their time in the penalty box, en route to a much lower-scoring game. Remember, that prior to Game 1, nine of the previous 14 meetings between these clubs have produced five or fewer combined goals. Look for this one to do the same. |
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08-13-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Carolina UNDER the total. These teams were supposed to meet Monday. However, because of the length (5 OT's!) of the Columbus/Tampa game, they were forced to play early Tuesday instead. The Bruins won that game by a score of 4-3. Nothing abnormal about the Bruins winning, as they've now beaten the Canes seven straight times. The high score wasn't exactly 'normal' of recent meetings though. In fact, the previous three meetings between these teams had resulted in Boston wins with scores of 2-0, 4-0 and 2-1. With the teams now playing their second game in two days, I'm expecting things to tighten up. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Bruins played the second of b2b games. Look for those stats to improve Thursday. |
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08-13-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -170 | 3-1 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. As you probably know, the opening game was a marathon. The Lightning won in the fifth Overtime. Those are the type of losses that can really be tough to bounce back from. Keep in mind that the Jackets were already off an emotional and physical hard-fought series against the Leafs. They'd barely had a chance to recover and then left it all on the ice in Game 1. To do that and ultimately come up short is going to take a toll on them today. Expect the Lightning, who still haven't forgotten last year, to take advantage of the situation and for them to take a commanding lead in the series. |
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08-12-20 | Canucks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Vancouver/St. Louis UNDER the total. We're getting an O/U line of 5.5 to work with, though we have to lay some extra juice to get it, for tonight's opener. After tonight, however, we may be down to five the rest of the way. That extra half goal doesn't sound like much but is indeed often significant. The last two meetings between these teams had scores of 3-1 and 2-1. Going back further reveals that nine of the past 14 meetings between these clubs have produced five or fewer combined goals. Vancouver goalie Demko has been fantastic against the Blues over the course of his career. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be anticipating. |
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08-12-20 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Col UNDER the total. These teams are both capable of being extremely stingy. Though the Avs have the talent advantage but the Coyotes can neutralize that with their system and netminder. Indeed, Arizona goalie Darcy Kuemper was excellent against Nashville in the qualifying round, posting a .933 save percentage while making 152 total saves and allowing only 11 goals. The last three meetings between them had scores of 3-0, 3-2 and 3-2. Look for this one to also finish with five or less. |
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08-12-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -129 | 4-2 | Loss | -129 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Caps started slowly in the round robin but got better as it progressed. I believe that they're peaking at the right time, entering their series with the Islanders. The Isles are well-coached as former Trotz led the Capitals to the Cup a couple of years ago. The Caps are the more complete and talented team though, in my opinion. While the Isles were taking on the Panthers, the Caps were getting warmed up against top Eastern teams like Tampa, Boston and Philadelphia. The Caps can beat you with offense or with defense. They can beat you by being more physical or they can out-finesse you. That said, I feel this price is more than reasonable. Expect the Caps to draw first blood. |
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08-11-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. The Lightning got the matchup they wanted. This is the team which upset them last year and now its time for payback. The Lightning catch the Jackets coming off a very hard fought and emotional series against the Leafs and I expect them to jump all over them. Tampa coach Jon Cooper noted: "What happened last year happened last year. That's in the history books forever. Now it's time to write your own history, and that's what we intend to do with this team..." Expect a highly determined effort and the Lightning to draw first blood. |
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08-09-20 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs -146 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -146 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. You probably saw that the Leafs pulled off a truly remarkable comeback in Friday's game. The stars came out when they were needed most. That's going to give Toronto a lot of momentum and a feeling of invincibility. On the other hand, the Jackets are going to be feeling deflated. Outside of the momentum and confident factor, the Leafs simply have far more offensive firepower. Now feeling a like a "team of destiny," look for them to close the deal. |
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08-08-20 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Vegas/Colorado UNDER the total. First place is on the line and both teams appear hungry to get it. Both are capable of being extremely stingy and I expect goals to be hard to come by. While the Knights have seen some higher scores, the Avs' last two games had scores of 2-1 and 4-0. A closer look shows that the Vegas games would have been lower-scoring if Vegas didn't score seven third period goals to rally. That won't happen today. Note that the Knights remain without their top scorer Max Pacioretty, who has 32 goals, 66 points. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -131 v. Blackhawks | 2-3 | Loss | -131 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. I lost with the Oilers in Game 3. Despite that tough loss, I still feel very much the same way. Here's what I said, prior to Wednesday's game: "I won with the Hawks in Game 1 and the Oilers in Game 2. So, I've had a good handle on it, thus far. I believe that the Oilers are the superior team though. By the end of Game 2, they'd broken the Hawks' spirit. They were facing a lot of pressure coming in but now they've got that first victory out of the way, I expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game. The Hawks are just 54-78 (-13.7) in the revenge role the past few seasons. So, if they can't beat a team once, it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to bounce back in the next meeting. In fact, during that span, Chicago is only 45-78 (-22.7) against teams with a winning record. Look for McDavid and co. to win this critical affair." The Oilers did indeed come very close to winning Game 3, as they were up 3-2 late in the third. This time, look for them to find a way to even the series. |
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08-07-20 | Oilers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Edmonton/Chicago UNDER the total. Though a couple of late third period goals caused Game 3 to finish above the number, it was a far tighter game than the first two. With the Oilers facing elimination, I expect that to be the case, but even more so, in Game 4. Indeed, this is an extremely high number. Remember, the O/U lines were 6 at the beginning of the series and they're 5.5 for most of the other matchups. The reality was that the Hawks got a couple of relatively fortunate goals in that Game 3. As McDavid noted: "We got back in the game, in control of the game. Then two shots from the point ended up in the net." When speaking of taking penalties and turning the puck over, Edmonton's star would also mention: "...We have to be more disciplined..." With the Oilers committing to being more disciplined, look for this to prove to be the lowest scoring of the bunch. |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -155 v. Canadiens | 0-2 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Down 1-0, we saw the best from the Penguins in Game 2. Down 2-1 and facing elimination, I expect another determined effort from Crosby and co. in Game 4. Yes, Game 3 was a tough loss, as they appeared to be in control. However, this team still has the talent and the experience to overcome it. As Montreal coach Julien noted: "...we're playing a team that knows exactly what to do to get back into a series..." Remember, the Pens had a +28 goal differential in the season while the Habs were -9. I say this one's going the distance. |
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08-06-20 | Flames v. Jets +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -183 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing WINNIPEG on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) I really like the Jets' chances of winning this one outright. However, I also believe that a close, tight game is likely. In that type of game, the type that could go to OT, getting an extra +1.5 goals could well prove invaluable. Yes, they lost 6-2 last time out. However, the last (only) time that the Jets were trailing in this series, they responded with a 3-2 win. Including that result, they're 37-26 vs. the money-line, the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss by two or more goals. During that span, they're 66-46 (+19.2) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. With the Flames just 5-17 (-15.2) the past 22 times that they were leading in a playoff series, expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover" from the desperate Jets. |
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08-06-20 | Canucks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver/Minnesota UNDER the total. With the series now tied 1-1 and the intensity already high, I expect goals to be few and far between in Game 3. We saw that in yesterday's games, the majority of them finishing with five or fewer goals. The Wild are a stingy team which limits scoring chances. The last time the series was tied (0-0) the final score was 3-0. Expect a low-scoring affair and don't be surprised if one of the goalies comes away with another shutout. |
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08-05-20 | Oilers -136 v. Blackhawks | 3-4 | Loss | -136 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. I won with the Hawks in Game 1 and the Oilers in Game 2. So, I've had a good handle on it, thus far. I believe that the Oilers are the superior team though. By the end of Game 2, they'd broken the Hawks' spirit. They were facing a lot of pressure coming in but now they've got that first victory out of the way, I expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game. The Hawks are just 54-78 (-13.7) in the revenge role the past few seasons. So, if they can't beat a team once, it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to bounce back in the next meeting. In fact, during that span, Chicago is only 45-78 (-22.7) against teams with a winning record. Look for McDavid and co. to win this critical affair. |
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08-05-20 | Oilers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Edmonton/Chicago UNDER the total. We've seen that these teams can score. However, for a series which is tied, a critical Game 3 in a Best-Of-5, I expect to see fewer goals and believe that this number is generously high. Note that we're now working with a 6.5 after the first two games had 6. That extra half goal doesn't sound like much but could well come into play. Both teams also closed out their reg. seasons with an 'over.' Note that the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 4-0 after playing three or more consecutive 'overs.' Going back further finds that the UNDER at 12-5-2 when the Oilers were off three or more consecutive 'overs.' Very early goals have gotten the scoring going in the first two. I expect that first goal to take longer to get this time, leading to the final score proving lower than many will be expecting. |
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08-05-20 | Predators v. Coyotes UNDER 5 | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nashville/Arizona UNDER the total. The first two games of this series finished above the number. This afternoon, however, with the series tied and the teams playing their second game in two days, I expect goals to be few and far between. This is still a very stingy Arizona team, yesterday notwithstanding. The Preds are also capable of being "stingy" themselves. We saw that yesterday as they committed to clogging up the shooting lanes and got strong goal-tending from Saros. Expect the goalies to steal the show in this one. |
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08-04-20 | Hurricanes v. Rangers +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -195 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing NYR on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) Facing elimination, we're going to get the very best that the Rangers have. While coming back from a 2-0 deficit, in a best of five series, has historically proven very difficult, I don't expect the Rangers to go down without a fight. While the Panthers are 12-13 off a win by two or more goals, the Rangers are 13-8 (+8.2) off a loss by two or more. They're also 8-3 (+7.8!) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The first game was decided by a single goal. Expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" from the desperate Rangers here. |
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08-04-20 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs -141 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. After getting blanked 2-0 in the opening game, the Leafs are going to be a hungry and desperate team. Coach Sheldon Keefe had this to say: “That's what their system is designed to do, is to frustrate you. We've talked a lot about that. But the good news is in just talking to our guys and the type of practice that we had, our guys are not frustrated. Our guys are hungry to get back at it and recognize where we can get better and know that we have more to give so we'll be ready to play tomorrow." I absolutely expect that to be the case. The Leafs had plenty of chances. This is a team with some serious offensive weapons. They hadn't been blanked in a playoff game since back in 2002 and it won't happen twice in a row. Leafs bounce back. |
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08-03-20 | Blackhawks v. Oilers -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. I won with the Hawks in the opener. So, I wasn't surprised that they gave the Oilers a tough game. I commented on Toews' playoff experience and leadership and the Chicago captain absolutely led by example. That said, I expect a desperate Oiler team to respond this evening. McDavid is considered by many to be the top player in the game these days. Great players lead their teams to victory in these type of situations. I expect the Oilers' star to do exactly that. While the Hawks do have a few key veterans who have been through the wars, outside of them, this is a relatively inexperienced team - not the same Hawks that were so strong in years past. McDavid and co. respond. |
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08-03-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -125 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. After dropping the series opener, you know that the Pens are going to be all business here. The Habs are still an ugly 43-74 against winning teams the past few seasons. Over the years, they're also a poor 12-19 when leading in a playoff series. The Pens had a 41-35 edge in shots in the opener, so they were getting their chances. Expect a desperate Pittsburgh team, back against the wall, to bounce back and even things up. |
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08-02-20 | Coyotes v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Nashville UNDER the total. If this first game proves low-scoring, as I expect to be the case, we'll be seeing O/U lines of 5 the rest of the way. For now, however, we're able to work with a 5.5. While we do have to lay some extra juice to get that extra half goal, I still believe that a line of 5.5 is providing us with excellent value. While the Coyotes score a little bit more than years past, they're still not a very strong offensive team. Rather, they're here because they're a defensive-minded club, one which is strong at killing penalties. They finished third in goals against and got excellent goal-tending. Expect a low-scoring affair. |
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08-01-20 | Jets v. Flames UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Winnipeg/Calgary UNDER the total. The last time that the Flames and Jets met was back in October. The O/U line was six but the teams combined for only three goals, a 2-1 win for the Jets. In this first game back and with much at stake, I'm expecting another tight low-scoring affair this evening. As of this writing, there are still some O/U lines of 6 available. Thats the line I'd prefer you play at, rather than 5.5. However, I still like the play at 5.5. After tonight, if things go the way I expect, we won't be seeing any more sixes. Five of the past seven meetings have fallen below the total and this one will too. |
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08-01-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -150 | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. This line came down a bit from its opener; I feel thats providing value with the superior team. While anything can happen in one game, particularly in the first game back from the pandemic, the Pens are favored for a reason. The Pens average 3.2 goals per game while allowing 2.8 gpg. The Habs, meanwhile, allow 3.1 gpg while scoring 3.0. The Pens won both previous 2020 meetings. Expect them to draw first blood here. |
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08-01-20 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Oilers | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 170 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing CHICAGO on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) Yes, we have to pay a premium to get it. However, the value of getting an extra +1.5 goals in a playoff game can't be understated. The Oilers have a serious weapon in Connor McDavid. However, the Hawks have been here before and are not going to be easy to beat. Captain Toews is still a great leader and has three Cups to his credit. The Oilers are going to be feeling more pressure than the Hawks and winning is going to be tough enough, let alone winning by multiple goals. I expect the opening game to come down to the wire and am grabbing the extra +1.5 goals. |
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03-11-20 | Senators v. Kings -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. The Kings are rolling right now, playing their best hockey of the season. They've quietly been solid at home all season long. The Sens, on the other hand, have been terrible on the road all season long. While the Kings had yesterday off, the Sens were busy losing at Anaheim. They're 14-33 the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the suddenly surging Kings to avenge an earlier loss at Ottawa. |
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03-11-20 | Rangers v. Avalanche -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Rangers are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Having dropped three of four and looking to avenge an earlier loss at MSG, the Avs are angry. While the Rangers are 13-13 against teams from the West, the Avs are 20-10 against teams from the East. The last time that the Rangers played two games in two days, as they are here, they won the first by a score of 5-2 but lost the second by a score of 5-2. Last night, they won 4-2, while the Avs rested. The Rangers also won when these teams met at MSG last season. However, in the rematch here at Colorado, the Avs won by a score of 6-1. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the Avs to get some payback tonight. |
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03-11-20 | Jets v. Oilers -131 | 4-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. As of this writing, McDavid is a game-time decision. While I suspect that he will give it a go, I like the Oilers, with or without their superstar. The home team has already won both meetings so far this season. The Jets may be rolling but they're also 14-24 (-16.9) their last 38, when on a 3-game winning streak. That includes an 0-5 mark their last five in that situation. Look for the Oilers to cool them off here. |
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03-10-20 | Rangers v. Stars -163 | 4-2 | Loss | -163 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. Both these teams are off divisional losses and both could really use a win. That said, the Stars arguably need it more. I expect them to be extremely hungry and playing on home ice, I expect them to have the advantage. The Rangers, who lost 6-4 last time out, are an ugly 29-46 (-13.9) the past 75 times that they were off a loss of two or more goals. During that span, the Rangers were also 28-47 (-14.9) when off a division game. Meanwhile, over the same period, the Stars were 52-35 (+11.3) when off a division game. With the Stars also a healthy 13-4 (+7.4) on the season, when playing with two day's rest in between games, look for the home fans to leave happy. |
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03-09-20 | Capitals v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing BUFFALO on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) With the Capitals favored on the money-line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the home for a relatively reasonable price. While I like Buffalo's chances of the outright win, I also feel that the extra +1.5 goals could well come in handy. The Sabres are going to be hungry to snap their losing streak. Additional motivation will come from the fact that the Caps embarrassed them (6-1) in this season's earlier meeting. While they did come up short again last time out, the Sabres played pretty well. In fact, they outshot the Flyers by a 39-24 margin. Two late goals proved costly. The line of Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart, which played together for the first time this season, accounted for 15 of those 39 shots. As Skinner noted: "We're getting opportunities ... " A look at Washington's last 12 games shows a record of 5-7. A closer look reveals that three of those five wins were by a single goal. In other words, the Caps would be just 2-10 their past 12, if asked to win by more than 1.5 goals. Expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover" from the desperate Sabres. |
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03-08-20 | Blue Jackets v. Canucks -147 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Jackets are a banged-up team right now. Thats going to make playing their second game in two days that much more difficult. Off last night's loss, the Jackets are now just 9-18 against teams from the West. One of those victories was against these same Canucks, just one week ago. That was at Columbus though. The Canucks were mired in a losing streak, at the end of a trip and playing the second of b2b games, while off a loss at Toronto the night before. (Some will recall that I successfully played against Vancouver in both those games.) The Canucks are a much better team at home and now they're coming off a win where they scored six goals. This time, they're the rested home team against a road weary visitor playing its second game in two days. Shoe on the other foot, its payback time. |
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03-08-20 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Penguins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing CAROLINA on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) Both teams play an early game after playing yesterday. Both will be playing their third game in the past four days. However, the Canes had some time off before that, while the Pens will be playing their fourth game in the past six. Alsol the Canes have been a bit better than the Pens, when playing the second of b2b games. Yesterday's 1-goal win was the Canes' third 1-goal game in the past four. Expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" this afternoon. |
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03-07-20 | Senators v. Sharks -153 | 2-1 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ. Home ice has been significant when these teams have faced each other and I expect that to be the case again here. The Sharks may only be 17-17 (17-16-1) at home but thats much better than Ottawa's 6-25 (6-19-6) record on the road. The Sens won the earlier meeting, at Ottawa. The Sens have now beaten the Sharks three straight times and five of six, when the teams play in Canada. However, when they face each other in California, the Sharks are 2-0 the last two seasons, winning by a combined score of 9-1. While the Sens have scored 71 goals on the road, the Sharks have scored 100 here at home. Ottawa, off a 4-3 win, is just 6-14 after scoring four or more. While they've struggled against elite teams, the Sharks are 15-7 (+7.5) against losing teams. Expect them to take care of business. |
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03-07-20 | Predators v. Stars -145 | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Stars are going to be a desperate team this afternoon. Not only have they dropped four straight but these same Predators just blanked them, at Nashville. Back on home ice and playing with immediate revenge, I expect a huge effort. Prior to Thursday, the Stars had enjoyed success against the Preds. In fact, they'd won the previous five meetings. This season's earlier game here at Dallas saw the Stars win 4-2. Including that result, the Preds are 16-16 on the road, the Stars are 19-13 at home. While the Stars are 17-12 in the revenge role, the Preds are just 11-14 (-7.4) their last 25, when off a shutout win. Stars stop the bleeding. |
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03-06-20 | Maple Leafs -163 v. Ducks | 1-2 | Loss | -163 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Off a 1-0 shootout loss last night and in danger of going winless on the road trip, the Leafs are going to be all business tonight. True, they haven't fared well in b2b situations this season. However, those have primarily involved one home game and one away game and therefore required travel. In this case, there's obviously very little distance to be covered. So, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor the way that it normally might be. This is an Anaheim team which the Leafs have dominated. They've won the last five games in the series, outscoring the Ducks by a combined 23-11 mark. With the Ducks just 6-12, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, look for a determined Leafs team to continue that series dominance tonight. |
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03-06-20 | Golden Knights v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Vegas/Winnipeg OVER the total. The last two meetings between these teams have had O/U lines of 6.5. We're working with a lower number tonight and I feel thats offering excellent value. Consider that the most recent meeting finished with seven goals and that the last three have averaged seven. While the Jets have indeed seen their last three games finish below the total (part of the reason for the relatively low O/U line) note that the OVER is 6-2 when they were off three or more consec. games which stayed below the total. As for the Knights, the OVER is a lucrative 14-5-2 when they were off a win by two or more goals. Expect those stats to improve as this one turns "offensive." |
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03-05-20 | Canadiens v. Lightning -177 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. The Canadiens are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Lightning are going to be in an angry mood. Knowing that they've got a road trip on deck, starting with a big game at Boston, they know that they absolutely need to close out the homestand with a win. Montreal is a team which they have handled in all three of this season's meetings. Sure, the Habs would like to avenge those losses. However, they're just 50-79 (-33.7) in the revenge role, the past few seasons. During that span, the Lightning are 22-10 (+6.9) after having scored one goal or less in their previous game. Expect a determined effort as the Lightning improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-05-20 | Bruins v. Panthers +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing FLORIDA on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) The Bruins are tough. However, the Panthers have fared fairly well against them recently. In fact, they've won five of the last eight meetings, one of those losses coming by a single goal. They're catching the Bruins off a win in a big showdown against TB and potentially looking-ahead to a rematch with those same Lightning. Off a 3-0 loss, their third straight, the Panthers are going to be extremely hungry. They're 35-24 (+9) vs. the moneyline, the past 2+ seasons, after a loss by two or more goals. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a "puck-line cover." |
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03-05-20 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Flyers | 1-4 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing CAROLINA on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) This should be a good scheduling spot for Carolina. While the Canes had the last few nights off, the Flyers are off a big win at Washington. The Flyers are 5-7 vs. the ML when playing the second of b2b games. The Canes are off back-to-back 1-goal losses. The last meeting between these teams was a 1-goal game, Carolina winning 5-4. The Canes are 14-9 (+4.4) vs. the money-line when off three or more consec. losses. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a puck-line cover. |
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03-04-20 | Flyers v. Capitals -148 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Flyers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Having recently lost 7-2 to these same Flyers, right here at home, the Caps are going to be in an extremely angry mood. Note that they've gone 10-4 (+5.5) when attempting to avenge a home loss. Both teams had the past two days off. While the Caps have had a winning record in that situation, the Flyers are actually an ugly 19-30 (-16.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Caps are a dominant 23-8 (+14.7) in March the past couple of years. Expect payback. |
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03-03-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -119 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA. Big showdown between the top two teams in the East. While the Lightning won't have Stamkos, a player who helped them win the first two games of the season series, I believe that they've still got enough to take care of business on home ice here. These teams will meet again at Boston in a few days. Knowing this, the Lightning will be going all out to "hold serve" here. I like that they won their last game, snapping a 4-game skid and providing some positive momentum. The Lightning have beaten the Bruins five straight times here, scoring three or more goals in all five of those games. Expect them to build off the Calgary win and keep that home ice streak in tact. |
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03-03-20 | Senators v. Penguins -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the puck-line. (-1.5 goals) The Senators are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. On a rare losing streak, the Penguins are going to be in a very angry mood. As Ottawa coach D.J. Smith noted of the Pens: "They've lost six straight, they have some of the best players in the world, they're good at home and they're going to come out strong. They need these two points and I'm sure they don't care who they're playing against." Of course, Ottawa is a dismal 39-73 against winning teams the past 2+ seasons. Looking at the last five times that the Pens beat the Sens, we see that all five victories came by more than a goal. Rested and angry, expect another multi-goal win tonight. |
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03-01-20 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets -135 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Both teams could really use a win. However, with the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect the Jackets to have the advantage. While Columbus had yesterday off, the Canucks are off a hard-fought loss against Toronto. A Saturday night game against the Leafs is always a big deal; fatigue may well be a factor. Vancouver is 11-18 the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. Both teams are much better on home ice. The Jackets are 19-12-4 (19-16) at home but 12-9-10 (12-19) on the road. The Canucks are 20-7-4 (20-11) at home but 14-17-2 (14-19) on the road. Knowing that they'll have to face these same Canucks at Vancouver in a week, expect the Jackets to take advantage of the favorable schedule and for them to "hold serve" on home ice. |
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02-29-20 | Jets v. Oilers -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Jets check in off a 3-0 win over Washington. Thats pretty impressive, as the Caps are tough to beat. That said, lets not forget that the Jets had lost their previous three games. All three losses came on the road, while the win over the Caps came at home. Also, imporantly, they're 0-4 when off a shutout win. While the Jets are off the 3-0 win, the Oilers are off a 3-0 loss. They're an outstanding 14-5 (+9.8) when off a loss of two or more goals though. Knowing their next three games all come on the road, look for a big effort from the Oilers as they bounce back with a much-needed win. |
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02-29-20 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs -175 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Leafs have turned the corner of late. They've won back-to-back games and three of four. The Canucks aren't nearly as tough on the road, as they are at Vancouver - and the Leafs already beat them there. While the line may seem steep, consider that the Leafs were laying -275 the last time that they hosted the Canucks. They are indeed the more talented team. The Canucks are 21-36 (-6.5) the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or more, going an ugly 13-27 (-13.2) in February during that span. Leafs close out the month with an important win. |
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02-29-20 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Carolina/Montreal UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Canes are suddenly having trouble scoring. They've managed just three goals their last two games. Both of those finished with five goals in total, a 3-2 final and a 4-1 final. When these teams last met, they combined for only four goals, a 3-1 final. While that was at Raleigh, the Canes have seen the UNDER go 13-8 when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or higher. Menawhile, the Habs have seen the UNDER go 17-10-3, when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or higher. Off b2b losses, the Canadiens are going to be fighting hard to clean up the goals allowed. Their last win was a 3-0 shutout. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-29-20 | Blackhawks v. Panthers -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 5-3 loss and having dropped three of their past four, the Panthers are going to be in an angry mood. They're 20-11 (+8.8) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. While the Hawks might want to avenge an earlier loss at Chicago, they're only 51-77 (-16.1) in the revenge role the past couple of seasons, 21-38 when attempting to avenge a home loss. The Panthers are 31-12 (+13.2) the past two years, when facing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Expect them to take care of business on home ice. |
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02-28-20 | Rangers v. Flyers -162 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. This is the front end of a home-and-home series between these teams. Knowing they'll face these same Rangers, at MSG, on 3/1, the Flyers will absolutely be determined to take care of business on home ice here. Not only do they have the venue in their favor but the Flyers also have the schedule working for them. While they had Thursday off, the Rangers were involved in a hard fought "Original Six" matchup at Montreal. The last time that these teams met and the only time so far this season was a game here at Philadelphia, on Dec 23. The Rangers were also playing their second game in two days for that one. It didn't work out too well as the Flyers won 5-1. Including that result, the Flyers have taken seven of the last eight meetings. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to continue that series dominance for at least another day. |
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02-28-20 | Wild v. Blue Jackets -130 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. The Jackets are badly in need of a victory and I expect their very best effort tonight. While the game wasn't exactly taxing, as they blew out the Red Wings, the Wild did play Thursday. That's noteworthy, as they're only 13-24 (-11.8) the past 2+ seasons, when playing their second game in two days. Prior to that, these teams had just faced each other, at Minnesota. The Wild eked out a 5-4 win in that one. The Wild also won a close one (2-1) in last season's game at Minnesota. However, in the game here at Columbus, the Jackets prevailed by a 4-2 score. This season, Columbus is 19-15 at home compared to Minnesota's 13-17 mark on the road. The Wild have allowed 106 goals on the road while the Jackets have allowed just 75 at home. The Jackets are 33-22 the past 2+ seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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02-27-20 | Rangers v. Canadiens -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. The reality is that the Canadiens won't be making the playoffs. However, they're still mathematically alive and I still expect their very best effort, as a result. Their captain, Weber had this to say: "We're not done yet,” Weber said. “We still got a long ways to go, but we got to take it one game at a time. Obviously, we got one point last night. We need to work on getting points tomorrow and then going forward. Just one game at a time. We can't look further than New York right now and they’re actually playing well. So we got to be ready for them and make sure it’s our best effort to date." Weber's right that the Rangers have been playing well, as they've won four straight. However, they've got a big divisional game on deck against the Flyers tomorrow and they're also an ugly 103-117 (-50.1) the past 200+ times that they were off three or more consec. wins. Look for the Habs to cool them off tonight. |
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02-25-20 | Rangers v. Islanders -134 | 4-3 | Loss | -134 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NY ISLANDERS. These teams met three times in January. The Rangers took two of those three meetings, including the lone one here. That loss notwithstanding, the Islanders have been excellent on home ice. I expect home ice to provide them with the advantage in this one. While the Rangers are a solid 16-11-2 on the road, the Isles are an outstanding 20-7-4 at home. Currently, the Isles have won five straight here. They scored four or more goals in all five of those wins, too. The trade deadline having come and gone, expect them to keep that streak in tact for another day. |
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02-23-20 | Golden Knights v. Ducks +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing ANAHEIM on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) The Knights were able to pull off the 2-goal win last night. However, now they're on the road and playing their second game in two days. They're facing a rested Anaheim team which has already beaten the Knights here this season. (The home team has won all three meetings, the Knights taking both in Vegas.) While the Knights have won their last two by two goals, none of their previous five games resulted in a win of more than a goal. They had three 1-goal wins and two losses, during that 5-game span. The Ducks are off a 1-goal loss of their own, falling 1-0 to the Avs. They're 8-6 (+4.4) against the money-line, after scoring one goal or less. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" this evening. |
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02-22-20 | Bruins v. Canucks +1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing VANCOUVER on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) I successfully played against the Bruins on the puck-line yesterday, the +1.5 goals coming in handy. It was their second straight 1-goal win. Tonight, though I like the Canucks to score the outright win, I'll go back to the well and grab the extra +1.5 goals once again. The Bruins are playing their second game in two nights, their third game in the past four and the final leg of a road trip. The trip has already been successful and it should be easy to get caught looking ahead. The Canucks are off a 1-goal loss, their second straight defeat. They hit the road after this, which makes tonight's game that much more important. Playing with revenge from a 4-0 loss at Boston, expect AT LEAST the "puck-line cover" here. |
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02-22-20 | Sharks +1.5 v. Rangers | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing SAN JOSE on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals) While the Rangers are off a win at Raleigh yesterday, the Sharks come in rested. The Sharks haven't forgotten that the Rangers pounded them 6-3, at San Jose, back in December. Note that the previous three meetings were all 1-goal Ranger wins. The Sharks last five road games have resulted in four wins and one 1-goal loss. Schedule in their favor, expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" here. |
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02-21-20 | Bruins v. Flames +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing CALGARY on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) The Bruins are playing the third leg of a 4-game road trip that ends in Vancouver tonight. I believe they'll be vulnerable against a Calgary team which knows it will face these same Bruins, at Boston, on 2/25. Last season, the Flames beat the Bruins 5-2 here. The previous season, they lost by a single goal (2-1) against the Bruins here. While the Bruins have been hot, their last win came by just a goal. The Flames, who have won four of six and who check in off a 6-4 victory. are 44-31 (+7.3) against the moneyline, the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals. Expect AT LEAST a "puck-line cover" from the home team here. |
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02-21-20 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -167 | 5-2 | Loss | -167 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rangers have had their way with the Hurricanes so far this season. That changes tonight. While the Rangers are a respectable 15-13 away from MSG, the Canes are a much better 19-11 here at Raleigh. The Rangers have outscored teams by a single goal (89-88) on the road this season. The Canes have outscored visiting teams by a dominant 104-77 margin. The Rangers are 9-11 off a win by two or more goals. The Canes are 11-6 (+3.9) when playing with two day's rest in between games. Its payback time tonight. |
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02-20-20 | Penguins v. Maple Leafs -111 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Pens have dominated the Leafs in a pair of meetings this season. Once back in November and once two days ago. Those were both at Pittsburgh though. Now, they get a chance to host the Pens. I expect the change of venue to work in their favor. I also expect an extremely motivated effort. Note that the Leafs are 61-43 in the revenge role the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Pens are just 16-19 (-11) after having won their three previous games. Payback time for Toronto. |
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02-19-20 | Wild v. Canucks -123 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. I feel that this line could easily be higher. These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season. Both those were at Minnesota though. Now playing at home, where they are typically much stronger, I expect the Canucks to have the advantage. While the Canucks are 19-10 (19-7-3) at home, the Wild are 10-17 (10-15-2) on the road. The Canucks, 16-8 when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or greater, are 8-5 (+2.9) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The Wild are just 5-11 when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or greater. Expect home ice to prove significant as the Canucks bounce back with a big win. |
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02-19-20 | Islanders v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Islanders/Avs OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game against each other, at NY, last month. That game had an O/U line of six though. Now, due to recent results, we're working with an O/U line of 5.5, which I feel is providing us with excellent line value. Note that the OVER is 20-13 the past 2+ seasons, when the Avs played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that span, the Avs have also seen the OVER go 50-35-5 against opponents from the Eastern Conference. The fact that the Isles won last month's game is also relevant as the OVER is 71-52-3 the past 2+ seasons, when the Avs played with revenge. The Avs gave up four last time, while scoring three. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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02-19-20 | Rangers v. Blackhawks -126 | 6-3 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The home team took both meetings last season. The Rangers won 4-3 at MSG but the Hawks won 4-1 here at Chicago. I expect home ice to again prove significant. Both teams had the past couple of days off. That figures to favor Chicago. While the Rangers are just 3-4 when playing with two day's rest in between games, the Hawks are an excellent 8-3 (+8.5) when doing so. Having dropped six of their last seven, the Hawks are going to be highly motivated. Look for them to "dig deep" as they stop the bleeding with a much-needed victory. |
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02-17-20 | Ducks v. Flames -186 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALGARY. The Flames just dominated (6-0) the Ducks, at Anaheim. Now, they face them at Calgary and the Flames have the schedule in their favor. While they had yesterday off, the Ducks are off a win at Vancouver. This is the Ducks' seventh road game in their past eight. Last time in a b2b situation, they lost 5-4. After giving up eight goals last time out, the Flames are going to be hungry. They're 43-31 the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals. That includes a 13-8 (+2.8) mark in that situation this season. Yesterday's win notwithstanding, the Ducks are terrible on the road and they're still a money-burning 35-45 (-16.4) in divisional games the past couple of seasons. As for as wanting payback for the 6-0 loss, the Ducks are also just 19-30 (-10) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss, 5-9 this season. Flames roll. |
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02-16-20 | Blues v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis/Nashville UNDER the total. These teams played a 4-3 game against each other yesterday. However, I expect today's rematch to be lower-scoring. The last meeting here at Nashville between these teams finished with a 3-2 score. Yesterday's game featured Saros and Allen between the pipes. However, today we're projected to see Binnington and Rinne. Saros and Allen entered yesterday's game with save percentages of 0.904 and 0.922. Today's goalies have save percentages of 0.909 and a low 0.895 for Rinne. Look for the expected change in goalies and venue to result in a lower-scoring affair. |
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02-16-20 | Ducks v. Canucks -154 | 5-1 | Loss | -154 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks have been a streaky team all season. After recently having lost four straight, they've now won b2b games. Markstrom is off a 49-save shutout (3-0 win) last game and is expected to back between the pipes for Vancouver. Gibson is expected to go for the Ducks today and he only lasted a period last game, a 6-0 Ducks loss. The Canucks are 15-6 when off a win by two or more goals. They're also a perfect 5-0 when playing with three or more day's rest. They lost at Anaheim earlier but they're a far better team at home. Expect them to keep on rolling for another day. |
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02-15-20 | Oilers v. Panthers -151 | 4-1 | Loss | -151 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. Both teams will want this one but I expect the Panthers to be a little hungrier. This is a team which has dropped three straight on home ice and which absolutely needs to stop the bleeding here. Keep in mind that the Panthers are still a healthy 16-11-2 at home, so the recent skid isn't an indication of how they typically play here. On the season, the Panthers average 3.5 goals per game compared to Edmonton's 3.2. The Panthers already beat the Oilers at Edmonton. Knowing that their next five come on the road, expect them to go all out here and come away with a much-needed victory. |
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02-14-20 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Both teams played yesterday. The Rangers won at Minnesota. The Jackets lost at Buffalo. That makes it three straight wins for NY and three straight losses for Columbus. No-brainer on the Rangers then, right? Not in my opinion. The Jackets are favored for a reason. The Rangers have been outscored 84-80 on the road this season. The Jackets have outscored opposing teams by a 81-65 margin here at home. The three straight wins could give the Rangers some complacency while the three losses will provide the Jackets with a sense or urgency. The Rangers are 5-8 the past couple of seasons after three or more consec. victories. While both teams are playing a b2b, the Rangers are also playing their third game in four days, which is not the case for Columbus. Jackets roll. |
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02-13-20 | Islanders v. Predators -135 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. The Isles are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Preds are going to be in an extremely angry mood. The last time that they lost two in a row, the Preds immediately snapped the skid with a 2-1 win over the Sabres. While the Isles have scored five goals in b2b games, they're still just 10-11 (-4.2) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Preds, 8-4 when playing with two day's rest in between games, have dominated the Isles in recent meetings. In fact, they're 4-0 the last four times that the teams faced each other, scoring 22 goals in the process. Expect "more of the same" on Thursday. |