Ben Burns NHL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-01-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Carolina and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I believe the price will prove to be well worth it.
The Canadiens often have a line of five instead of 5.5, for their games here at Montreal. However, when the line is 5.5, they've seen the UNDER is 7-2 this season and 31-21 the last few. The Hurricanes have seen the UNDER go 9-5 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Note that the Hurricanes are off a 3-1 win and have now seen eight of their last nine games produce five or fewer combined goals. Meanwhile, off a 3-0 shutout win, the Habs have seen three of four finish with three or fewer combined goals. Five of their last seven have finished with five or less. With the UNDER at 3-0 when the Canadiens were off a shutout and 9-4-3 their last 16 in that situation, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 9* |
|||||||
04-01-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I believe the price will prove to be well worth it.
The Wings got embarrassed by Chicago yesterday. I expect them to emphasize an improved defensive effort here. Prior to yesterday's game, the Wings had seen three straight finish with five or fewer combined goals, two of those games finishing with three or less. While yesterday' game had an O/U line of five, note that the Wings have seen the UNDER go 7-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also 7-4 when the Avs played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Note that the Avs are off a 1-0 shutout victory and that they're averaging just 1.8 goals their past five games. While its been a different story against top tier teams, the UNDER is 9-3-5 when the Wings faced a team with a losing record. That includes a 2-1 win over the Avs a few weeks ago, in this season's only previous meeting. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair tonight. 9* |
|||||||
04-01-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. NY Rangers -143 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY RANGERS. The Jets have a better record than the Rangers and they've won both of this season's meetings. That said, while I give the Jets credit and understand they're pretty solid, I still believe the Rangers are the superior team. If these teams met in the playoffs today, I'd expect the Rangers to win the series. With tonight's game being played at MSG and with the Rangers needing points more than the Jets, I expect New York to come away with the important victory.
While this season has admittedly been a bit disappointing, the Rangers remain a lucrative 58-46 (+6.2) the past couple of years, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. During that stretch, they're also 32-22 (+6.4) off a loss by two or more goals. While the Jets are getting outscored by an average of 3.1 to 2.4 away from Winnipeg, the Rangers are outscoring teams by a 2.8 to 2.4 margin here at MSG. Off three straight on the road, note that the Rangers are 12-4 (+7.4) off three or more consecutive road games. I expect their best effort. 9* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-31-13 | Boston Bruins v. Buffalo Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boston and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. These teams both played yesterday, each coming up short. The Sabres lost 4-3 vs. Washington. The Bruins lost 3-1 at Philadelphia. With each trying to bounce back with a victory, I expect to see an emphasis on defense.
The Sabres have seen the UNDER go 3-2-1 (2-1 at Buffalo) when playing the second of back-to-back games, 27-16-3 the past few seasons. The last time that they played a home game, after playing the previous day, was on 2/10, against these same Bruins. That game ended with a final score of 3-1. The Bruins have seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing the second of back-to-back games. That includes a 2-0 mark on the road. The last time that they were in that situation, they lost 2-1 at Pittsburgh. The Bruins have also seen the UNDER go 3-0 after a loss by two or more goals and 8-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. While we have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5, I believe it will prove well worth it. 9* blue chip |
|||||||
03-29-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Chicago Blackhawks -150 | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Ducks have won both this season's previous meetings. They're suddenly reeling though, off four straight losses, getting outscored 16-5. Playing with "double-revenge," the Hawks should have no shortage of motivation.
Anaheim's Francois Beauchemin had this to say of his team's recent play: "We're not working hard enough and we're not winning the battles. It shows on the ice..." The Hawks are 5-1 (+3.6) when playing with two day's rest in between games and 9-3 (+5.1) when attempting to avenage an earlier loss. They're outscoring teams by a 4.2 to 2.4 margin their last five while the Ducks are being outscored by a 3.6 to 1.8 mark. While they likely won't have Hossa or Sharp in the lineup, this is still a loaded Chicago squad. All things considered, I feel the price is reasonable. 9* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-28-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. St Louis Blues -125 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Blues are off a 3-0 loss on Tuesday and have now dropped three of four overall. They did have 43 shots in that game though - and they'd previously won four straight at home. Their coach (Hitchcock) isn't standing for any more losing. He held a lengthy closed door meeting after Tuesday's loss.
Hitchcock was quoted saying: "I think it's going to require a deeper buy-in from the group, which is what we talked about here with our leaders. It's going to take a deeper buy-in by the group for us to be successful. I think that's going to be a partnership by management, coaches and players. It's going to have to be deeper. It's not deep enough." While the Blues were in their meeting on Tuesday, the Kings were at the White House, meeting the president. While the Kings are 6-8-1 on the road, the Blues are 8-6-1 at home. While the Kings are 38-41 (-.2.7) the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less, the Blues are 37-19 (+6.7). Playing with "double-revenge," I expect a highly motivated effort from the Blues to lead to an important two points. 10* personal fav |
|||||||
03-28-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Pittsburgh Penguins -192 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. This price is obviously a little higher than I normally prefer to lay. However, I believe it could (and should) be even higher.
With the Heat having lost yesterday, the Penguins streak is now the "talk of the sports world." They're simply playing at another level from most of the teams right now. The "streaky" Pens are now 42-14 (+23.8) after three or more consecutive victories. They're only getting stronger and I don't see their winning streak coming to an end against an outclassed Jets team which is sandwiched in between "big" games vs. divisional rival Carolina. 5* |
|||||||
03-27-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Colorado and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. Each of those games topped the total. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this evening though.
The Flames didn't manage a single goal last night, getting blanked by a 2-0 score at Chicago. After a run of "overs," they've now seen back-to-back games stay below the total. The Avalanche, who average a mere 2.1 goals per game on the road, have seen the UNDER go 7-3 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5 While the Avs have scored two or less in three of their last four, the Flames have scored three or fewer goals in five straight. The first meeting between these teams closed with an O/U line of 5.5u45. The next meeting had an O/U line of 5o40. Today, we're getting 5.5 again but without the steep price tag. I feel that's providing us with very fair value and am expecting a relatively low-scoring contest. 9* best bet |
|||||||
03-26-13 | BUF SABRES v. TB LIGHTNING -122 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Both the Lightning and the Sabres are in a similar position, with each team having a frustrating season, failing to live up to expectations. The Sabres fired head coach Lindy Ruff several weeks ago, while Tampa Bay let go Guy Boucher just a few days ago. The Lightning have named Jon Cooper as their new bench boss, and he will make his debut against the Sabres tonight. Cooper has an impressive resume, leading the Syracuse Crunch to the AHL's best record, after winning the Calder Cup with Norfolk last season. "He has had success at every level he has coached and is extremely familiar with our organization, as well as our players," general manager Steve Yzerman said. "He has a tremendous record at all levels and we feel he is ready to make the move to the NHL." He is fortunate to inherit a team loaded with offensive talent, ranked third in the league in scoring. The Sabres may be due for a let down after winning three straight, two of those games decided after regulation time. They might have been fortunate to be getting such positive results, as they continue to play poor defensively. Ryan Miller has seen a lot of rubber all year, and he's faced 73 shots in his last two starts. Buffalo isn't likely going to come away with points from this game if they surrender 30+ shots against the potent offense of the Lightning. With the players looking to make a positive impression for their new coach, there is added motivation for Tampa Bay to earn a victory tonight. They are facing the right opponent at the right time, giving them an excellent opportunity to do so. 8* |
|||||||
03-26-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Carolina Hurricanes -119 | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. The Hurricanes enter this game on a losing streak. They've had some extra time off to "get it together" though and I expect them to be very determined.
Adding to the Canes' motivation is the fact that the Jets defeated them here in this season's earlier meeting. Carolina is four points behind Winnipeg in the Southeast Division, but the Jets have also played three more games than the Canes. With a win tonight, the Hurricanes are still in the driver's seat, with their fate in their own hands as far as the playoff race. The Jets have had their own troubles of late, losing consecutive games to another Southeast Division rival, getting out-scored 10-1 by Washington in back-to-back home games Thursday and Friday. They might feel as though they have snapped out of it, after defeating Tampa Bay on Sunday, but that result isn't all that impressive against a team that is no longer in the playoff picture, having recently fired their coach. The Jets will face a much tougher task in Carolina, and they may feel the effects of the grueling schedule. Tonight's game will be their fifth in eight days, and their first in a very difficult road trip, that will see them play Pittsburgh on Thursday, before returning home to take on Carolina again on Saturday. If all goes according to plan for the Hurricanes, they could take over the division lead in that game. 8* |
|||||||
03-26-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina and Winnipeg to finish UNDER the total. When these teams met earlier, the line was 5.5. Now, although we do have to lay some extra juice to play at that number, we're getting an O/U line of six. I believe that the price is well worth it and that this game has a greater chance of finishing with five or fewer combined goals than it does of finishing with seven or more.
Both teams have struggled to put pucks in the net in recent games, The Canes have managed just four goals in their last four games, while Winnipeg has scored just four during a recent three game home stand. Neither team is particularly efficient with the man-advantage, in fact they are each among the bottom five in the NHL in power-play goals scored. There is plenty on the line here in this game, as the Canes are trying to make up ground on the Jets who have a four point lead in the Southeast Division. The Jets have played three more games than Carolina, so their lead is still in question. With so much at stake, we should see both teams play an extra cautious style, not wanting to give any open ice to their opponent. Winnipeg has tended to play a more defensive style against teams within their own division, resulting in the total going under in seven of their last eight against Southeast Division teams. They have only played one game in their last five that saw the total go over the number, while the Canes have played six straight games without the total going over. This is a trend we will expect to see continue as the games become more meaningful down the stretch. 8* |
|||||||
03-25-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. Phoenix Coyotes -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While the Wings come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Coyotes.
If you follow my NHL picks, then you already know that the Wings played at Anaheim last night, earning a 2-1 win. That was their second straight win over the Ducks. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days here. True, the Wings have been "respectable" (4-3) when playing the second of back-to-back games. Still, its not an ideal situation. On the other hand, the Coyotes have had the past few days off. That's not always an ideal situation either. However, in the Coyotes' case, I believe the time off came at a great time. That's because the Coyotes were off a winless road trip and then had proceeded to lose their first game back home. (In fairness, that can be a challenging spot.) Knowing that they're back on the road again after tonight, this game becomes even more critical. That's even more true given that the Coyotes are currently 12th in the west (3 points behind the 8th place team) and that they're 3-11 (3-8-3) on the road but 10-7 (10-6-1) at home. Even with a few recent wins, the Wings are still below .500 (7-8) on the road. While the Wings are 8-15 (-6.6) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5 or less, the Coyotes are 31-24 (+1.6) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5 or less. The Wings have had success in the series overall but the Coyotes won the last meeting here. I expect them to be a little hungrier tonight and for them to step up and earn a much needed two points. 10* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-24-13 | St Louis Blues v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Calgary and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. The Flames have been on an extended "over" streak. Today, however, they'll be taking on a St. Louis team which has seen four straight games stay beneath the number. I expect the Blues' "under" streak to be the one which remains in tact here.
Off a 3-0 shutout win last night, note that the Blues have seen the UNDER go 15-10-2 the past couple of seasons, after a shutout win. During that stretch, the UNDER is 20-14-7 when the Blues played the second of back-to-back games. (Keep in mind that those "pushes" finished with five goals, too.) The UNDER is 71-51-9 over the long-term when the Flames had seen three or more consecutive games finish above the total. Even factoring in a high-scoring game here last month, the UNDER is 15-3 the last 18 times that the Blues played here, 8-1 the last nine. Expect things to return to "normal" tonight. 9* |
|||||||
03-24-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. These teams just met a couple of days ago. That game finished with a final score of 5-1, in favor of Detroit. That's one of the major reasons why the O/U line has climbed from five, as it was in that game, to 5.5. If you follow hockey and/or my picks, you already know that the difference between five and 5.5 is significant.
The Ducks have seen the UNDER go 7-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. They've also seen the UNDER go 5-2 off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. Detroit goalie Jimmy Howard should be between the pipes. That's worth mentioning as he's 7-2-2 with a 1.61 GAA in his last 11 starts. He's also now 3-0-1 with a 1.24 goals-against average in his last four starts in Anaheim. I'd expect Hiller will likely get the call for the Ducks - he posted a shutout (4-0) in his last start vs. the Wings. Even factoring in Friday's result, the Wings have still seen the UNDER go 6-2 their last eight trips here. With the Ducks emphasizing an improvement on defense, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-24-13 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -152 | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NY RANGERS. The Capitals recently had their way with the Winnipeg Jets. This is an entirely different opponent though, one which has given them fits. I expect the Caps, 24-29 (-11) the past few seasons off a win by two or more goals, to come back to earth here.
The Rangers are off a 3-1 loss on Thursday. They didn't play badly though. As captain Ryan Callahan noted: "We'd be concerned if we weren't getting the chances. We had 40-something shots. You get those chances on a nightly basis, you're going to get more than one goal easily.'' The Rangers are 56-28 (+16.3) against teams with a losing record the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also 31-15 (+13) when playing with two day's rest in between games. I expect a highly motivated Rangers squad to move to 3-0 in the season series. 8* |
|||||||
03-23-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Nashville Predators -148 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. I won with the Predators in their last game and I feel that this will be another good spot to back them.
Give the Blue Jackets some credit. They were the worst team in the league last year and proceeded to lose their best player. They started off horribly again this season. However, they've been working hard and have fought all the way back to the point that they're in contention for a playoff spot. That said, this is a tough situation for them. While the Jackets are off a win vs. Calgary last night, the Preds had last night off. The secret of the Jackets' success has been to outwork their opponents. That's harder to do when in a b2b situation though. Note that they're 2-4 (-0.8) in that situation this season and 13-27 (-7.7) their last 40 in that situation. During that stretch, they're also 14-26 (-8.9) in that situation. The Jackets are also a dismal 19-42 (-15) vs. divisional opponents the past few seasons. During that period, the Preds are 35-26 (+11.6) in divisional games. The Preds, who play with "double-revenge," are 52-42 (+14.5) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They're also 29-6-1 the last 36 times that they were a host in the series. Its payback time. 8* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-22-13 | Calgary Flames v. Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. The Flames have been on an "over" streak of late. Facing a Columbus team which has allowed three or fewer goals in nine straight games, I expect that streak to come to an end here.
The Blue Jackets are off a high-scoring (4-3) game vs. the Predators. However, their previous six games ALL finished with five or fewer goals. Even including the Nashville game, the Jackets' last five games are still averaging a mere 3.8 goals. For the season, their games are averaging 4.9. True, this season's previous meeting saw the Flames win 4-3 here. However, the Flames are still averaging only 2.2 gpg game on the road and the UNDER is still 16-7 Calgary's last 23 visits here. The fact that the Flames won here last time out is noteworthy as the UNDER is 7-2 when the Jackets attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and 12-5 their last 17 in the revenge role overall. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-21-13 | CAL FLAMES v. NASH PREDATORS -135 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. After a tough road trip, which included a loss at Calgary, the Predators should be thrilled to return home. They're now desperate for points and they've got a score to settle. I expect them to bounce back with an important win. Home ice means a lot to both of these teams. Here at Nashville, the Preds are outscoring teams by a 2.5 to 1.9 margin. On the other hand, the Flames are getting outscored by an average of 3.6 to 2.2 on the road. The Preds won by scores of 5-3 and 2-1 the last two times that they were hosts in this series. They're 51-42 (+13.5) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 8* annihilator |
|||||||
03-20-13 | Dallas Stars v. Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. When these teams faced each other here last month, the O/U line was five. That game landed right on the number, a 3-2 final. Tonight, due mostly to recent high-scoring results, we're getting a higher O/U line to work with, as the line has climbed to 5.5. I feel that's providing us with solid value and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring game.
As we saw last month, when the game finished with exactly five goals, the difference between 5 and 5.5 is a significant one. Note that Dallas has seen the UNDER go 4-2 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5 and that Colorado has seen the UNDER go 5-2 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-5-1 the last 19 games between these teams. That includes a 9-0-1 mark the last 10 here in Colorado. All 10 games finished with five or fewer combined goals, six of them finishing with exactly five. As for the recent high-scoring games, I expect both teams to be motivated to clean up their defensive efforts. Ultimately, I look for the final combined score to again finish at five or less. 9* |
|||||||
03-20-13 | Minnesota Wild v. Detroit Red Wings -134 | 4-2 | Loss | -134 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Wild have won three straight, while the Red Wings have won two in a row. Playing on home ice, I expect the Wings, 41-24 the last 65 times that they were off a win by two or more goals, to be the team which keeps its streak in tact.
These teams have faced each other twice this season. The home team won both those games. The Wings won 5-3 at Detroit back in January. A few weeks later, when playing at Minnesota, the Wild returned the favor with a 3-2 victory. Including this season's win here, the Wings are 16-6-1 the last 23 times that they were a host in this series. While the Wild often get to three straight wins, getting that fourth is often a challenge for them. They're 44-56 (-13.1) the last 100 times that they were off three straight wins, 9-11 their last 20 in that situation. The well-rested Wings are 94-52 (+17.3) over the years, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, going 12-6 (+3.8) their last 18 in that situation. I expect them to take care of business again this evening. 9* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-19-13 | St Louis Blues v. Vancouver Canucks -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. I played the Canucks last night in their loss to Minnesota, and while I was not pleased with the outcome, I feel that the Canucks played hard in losing effort, and were unfortunate to have come away without any points. Vancouver out-shot the Wild 36-25, and they scored the game's first goal on the power-play.
The level of desperation for this Vancouver team just gets greater by the day, as they are now just two points up on San Jose, who occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The Canucks are in serious danger of missing the post-season all together. That would be unthinkable for a franchise that has led the league in points for the past two years, and was just one game away from hoisting it's first Stanley Cup just two seasons ago. The St. Louis Blues are in town tonight, and they will have fond memories of their last visit to Rogers Arena. The Canucks will seek to avenge a 4-3 shootout loss to the Blues in Vancouver last month. Vancouver took both meetings last year, including a 2-0 shutout win at home. St. Louis is coming off three straight wins at home, and the Blues have won five of six overall. They might be set to experience a let down, coming into a hostile environment against a desperate hockey club in the first game of this road trip. I expect the Canucks to carry the play, and bring a level of intensity that the Blues will be unable to match. 9* |
|||||||
03-19-13 | Buffalo Sabres v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. The Canadiens are one of the surprise teams this year, as many would have expected Montreal to have trouble just making the playoffs, let alone competing for first in the conference. The Habs owe much of their success to solid defensive play, and stellar goaltending from Carey Price.
While solid defense has led to success for Montreal, it's a different story in Buffalo. The Sabres poor play has already cost long time coach Lindy Ruff his job, and we haven't seen a lot of improvement with Ron Rolston taking over behind the bench. While the Sabres aren't particularly good defensively, they are really struggling on offense. The Buffalo power-play ranks dead last in the NHL, with a conversion rate of just over 11 percent. Low scoring tilts have been the norm when these two teams meet, as the total has landed on five or fewer goals in seven of the past 10 meetings. While they have played a couple of high scoring games this season, I expect to see a more traditional Buffalo versus Montreal matchup tonight. A tight checking hard hitting down and dirty matchup of two bitter Eastern Conference rivals. The Sabres have started slow before, and come storming back in the second half to make a push for the playoffs, and Ryan Miller is calling for his club to do it again this season. "It's frustrating where we're at, but we need to keep things in perspective," Miller said. "There's points to be had. To make the playoffs we're going to have to play a lot of good games and get a lot of wins." I expect to see a spirited effort from the Sabres in a close, low scoring game here tonight. 10* |
|||||||
03-18-13 | Minnesota Wild v. Vancouver Canucks -151 | 3-1 | Loss | -151 | 31 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks recently lost at Minnesota. Tonight, they get to face the Wild at Vancouver. I expect them to get some payback.
The Canucks have dominated the Wild here for years. In fact, a 2-1 victory last month brought them to 11-0 the last 11 times that they were a host in this series. A closer look at those games here at Vancouver show that the Canucks were much larger favorites than they are here. In fact, they were laying at least -200 in each of the last nine meetings, including about -230 in last month's meeting here. By comparison, tonight's price is a bargain. The Canucks are typically at their best, when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're 9-4 their last 13 in that situation and 55-27 (+12.3) the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're a dominating 42-15 (+15.3) against divisional opponents. I expect them to take care of business, once again. 7* |
|||||||
03-18-13 | Calgary Flames v. Dallas Stars -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. While the Flames come in as the "hotter" team, I expect the Stars to be the "hungrier" team. I expect that to lead to an important two points.
The Stars got embarrassed last time out, getting crushed 8-1 by Chicago. Throw in the fact that they're 0-2 against the Flames this season and that they've lost four straight overall - and we should be able to expect a highly motivated effort. Dallas' Jamie Benn said this of the Stars' last game: " ... it's unacceptable. We need to do something within this room to change that. It's an unacceptable effort. Chicago gave us a wakeup call.'' While Calgary is off back-to-back impressive wins, both those came at home. The Flames have now won six straight at home. However, they've lost six straight on the road, getting outscored 24-8. While the Flames, who are without their #1 goalie here, are 23-40 (-20.2) the last 63 times that they were off a game in which they scored four or more goals, the Stars are 34-28 (+7) after allowing four or more. I expect their best effort. 8* |
|||||||
03-18-13 | Calgary Flames v. Dallas Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on Calgary and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. Both games have been high-scoring. I expect a much different type of game tonight though.
The Stars got embarrassed in their last game, giving up eight goals, en route to an 8-1 loss. They've now lost four straight. (Each of the previous three losses finished with five or fewer combined goals.) Off Saturday's debacle, in addition to just winning a game, I expect the Stars' primary objective here to be an improvement on defense/goaltending. Dallas player Jamie Benn had this to say about the team needing to improve defensively: "We dumped on our first goalie and we dumped on our second goalie. We left them to hang out to dry and it's unacceptable. We need to do something within this room to change that. It's an unacceptable effort. Chicago gave us a wakeup call.'' Over the past few seasons, the UNDER is 39-22 when the Stars had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 29-19 when the Stars were off a loss by two or more goals and 14-7 when they'd lost three or more consecutive games. While the Stars are averaging 2.5 goals per game at home, the Flames are averaging a mere 2.1 gpg on the road. I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-18-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. NY Rangers -140 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. Both teams should be hungry here. The Canes have lost two straight while the Rangers have lost three in a row. With tonight's game being played at MSG, I expect the Rangers to have the edge.
While the Hurricanes are still only 21-23 (-1.4) the past few seasons, off a loss by two or more goals - the Rangers are 31-20 (+7.1) in that situation. During the same span, they're 6-4 (+2.3) off three or more consecutive defeats. The Rangers are 3-0 the last three times that they hosted the Canes. They won those games by a combined score of 11-4. Going back further finds them at 13-6 with one tie, the last 20 times that they were a host in this series, 20-10-1 the last 31. Carolina has scored two or fewer goals in 15 of its last 20 visits here. Note that Carolina, still playing without its #1 goalie, has allowed three or more goals in five of its last six games. The Rangers have allowed three or less in nine straight. They need this game more than the Canes do and I expect them to continue their domination on home ice in the series. 8* |
|||||||
03-16-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Toronto Maple Leafs -132 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jets come in as the "hotter" team. However, I expect the Leafs to be the more "desperate" team this evening and for that to translate to a badly needed two points.
These teams just met at Winnipeg a few days ago. The Jets won that one by a score of 5-2. Including that setback, the Leafs have now dropped four straight. That should ensure an extremely motivated effort here. Remember, its a short season and teams simply can't afford extended losing streaks. The Leafs have been at their best in this situation. They're 5-3 off a loss by two ore more goals this season and they're 3-1 (+2.9) after scoring one or less. They're also still a respectable 15-13 (+1.2) the past couple of seasons, after losing three or more consecutive games, 67-60 (+11) their last 100+ in that in situation. During that stretch, they are 158-132 (+24.8) after scoring one goal or less and 194-181 (+21.2) ater a loss by two or more. When compared to their poor overall numbers over that period, those stats look even better. Saturday nights are still a big deal in Canada - hockey night in Canada. And the Jets typically don't fare too well under the "bright lights." They're 1-3 their last four Saturday games and 7-16 (-9.8) their last 23. The Leafs are 3-1 their last four as a host in this series and 14-8-1 their last 23. I expect their best effort here. 10* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-16-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Buffalo Sabres -120 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. The Sabres got back on track last time out, knocking off a good Rangers team. I expect them to carry that momentum into this afternoon's contest.
These teams have faced each other twice this season, Ottawa winning each of them. Both those meetings were in early February though and both were played in Canada. The Sabres finally get a chance to face the Sens on home ice this time around - and they'll catch an Ottawa team which is no longer playing as well as it was last month. Indeed, the Sens are off back-to-back losses and are now just 1-6 their last seven. Goalie Craig Anderson was it net for both the earlier meetings for Ottawa. However, he's now out; the Sens have allowed an average of three goals per game their last seven. They gave up at least two goals in every one of the games. He's just one of many injured Senator plays, a long list headed by the likes of Spezza and Karlsson, a pair of "star" players. The well-rested Sabres are 11-8 (+3.1) the past few seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, going a profitable 94-69 (+10.5) their last 150+ in that situation. Even including the earlier wins, the Sens are only 21-38 (-17.1) against divisional opponents the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Sabres are 32-26 (+5) against divisional foes. Its "payback time" on Saturday afternoon. 9* annihilator |
|||||||
03-15-13 | New Jersey Devils v. Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Jersey and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. This is the second game of a home and home series. Playing at home, the Devils won Wednesday's game by a score of 5-2. With the series shifting to Philly, I feel that the Flyers have a solid shot at returning the favor. That said, I feel that the UNDER is providing us with even better value.
After giving up five goals, the Flyers should be highly motivated to improve their defensive (and goaltending) performance here. Note that the UNDER is already 7-4 on the season, when they were off a loss by two or more goals. Limiting New Jersey should be easier here. The Devils have been able to score on home ice. However, they're averaging only 2.1 gpg on the road. While four of the last five meetings at New Jersey have now topped the total, the UNDER is 3-1 the last four meetings here at Philadelphia. Going back further shows that 12 of the last 18 series meetings here at Philly, have finished with five goals or less. While its only been a 3-3 mark this season, note that the UNDER is a highly profitable 127-79 over the long-term, when the Devils have played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-14-13 | Nashville Predators v. Vancouver Canucks -154 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks got back on track with a much needed victory last time out. I expect the defending President Trophy champs to follow it up with another win tonight.
The Predators are off a 4-0 shutout win. That doesn't mean that they'll follow it up with another victory though. They just won 6-0 a few games ago and lost their next game by a score of 2-1. They're 1-3 on the season off a shutout win and 1-4 after winning by two or more goals. Having lost 1-0 vs. the Canucks at Nashville earlier, note that the Preds are also only 17-26 (-6.5) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. While the Preds are being outscored by a 2.9 to 2.0 margin on the road, the Canucks are outscoring teams by an average score of 2.9 to 2.7 here at Vancouver. This is still a strong and well-coached team. They've been laying a higher price each of the last eight times that they were a host in this series. By comparison, I feel tonight's line is reasonable. 7* |
|||||||
03-14-13 | NY Islanders v. Tampa Bay Lightning -112 | 2-0 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. The Islanders won the earlier meeting, at Long Island. I expect the Lightning to avenge that loss tonight.
With an O/U line of six, this is expected to be a high-scoring contest. That suits the Lightning just fine. They're 15-3 (+11.2) the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or more. The Isles have only played one game with an O/U line of six all season. That was last time out and they lost 6-1. The fact that they've had some time off to recover from that beating isn't necessarily a good thing either. In fact, they're only 3-12 (-8.5) the last 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During that stretch, the Isles are also a money-burning 24-50 (-20) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The last meeting here at Tampa saw the Lightning come out on top by a score of 4-3. I feel that they've got a great shot at another victory here and feel that a price practically in the "pick'em range" is offering excellent value. 8* |
|||||||
03-14-13 | Washington Capitals +1.5 v. Carolina Hurricanes | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing WASHINGTON on the PUCK-LINE. (+1.5 goals.) As is almost always the case, we do have to lay a pretty steep price for the privilege of getting an extra +1.5 goals to work with. However, in this case, I believe the price could easily be higher and that having that extra cushion could well prove worthwhile.
These teams just met at Washington, a couple of days ago. The Canes won that one by a score of 4-0. That should provide the Caps, 4-3 (+0.6) vs. the money-line when attempting to avenge a home loss with some added incentive. Note that Carolina is an awful 27-49 (-30.3) its last 76, when off a shutout loss. Off this season's only previous shutout win, the Canes lost 5-3 in their next game. While they've got some wins in that situation this season, it should also be noted that the Canes are still an ugly 17-30 (-13.6) the past couple of years, off a win by two more goals. While the Canes are 4-1their last five, they'd only be 2-3 in those games, if being asked to lay -1.5 goals. The Canes are still 3-5 (-3.2) against divisional opponents while the Caps are 6-3 (+2.6) I expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a "cover" here. 6* |
|||||||
03-12-13 | Vancouver Canucks -144 v. Columbus Blue Jackets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Blue Jackets may be the hotter team. However, the Canucks are still the much better team. Desperate for points and playing with recent "revenge," I expect them to prove it this evening.
While the Blue Jackets have been catching some breaks and playing hard lately, it should be noted that they're missing a few key regulars from their lineup. The Canucks, who lost at Columbus this past Thursday, are typically at their best when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. In fact, they're 8-3 (+3.8) their last 11 in that situation, going an outstanding 54-26 (+13.2) their last 80 in that situation. I expect an extremely motivated effort to lead to a very important two points. 8* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-10-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. New Jersey Devils -127 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Daylight savings snuck up on me and has me running a bit short on time today. As a result, my writeups may be a little more brief than usual. Rest assured. the same amount of time was spent researching the plays, as always.
The Devils should have no shortage of motivation here. Not only are they desperate to get back on track, they're also playing with "double-revenge." Despite losing both this season's meetings, they're still 13-7 the last 20 against the Jets/Thrashers, 5-1 the last six at New Jersey. The Jets are playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip and have a home game vs. rival Toronto on deck. Note that even with a few wins in that situation this season, they're still only 7-12 (-4.6) since moving to Winnipeg, after playing three or more consecutive road games. True, the Devils played yesterday, while the Jets did not. They're a respectable 21-19 (+3.2) their last 40 in that situation though, despite a few recent losses. They get the next couple of days off and I expect their "desperation" to help in overcoming any possible fatigue. I'm not writing off the Devils yet and I say its "payback time" tonight. 9* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-10-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Detroit Red Wings -178 | 3-2 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. Daylight savings snuck up on me and has me running a bit short on time today. As a result, my writeups may be a little more brief than usual. Rest assured. the same amount of time was spent researching the plays, as always.
I haven't played too many large favorites this season. However, I won't hesitate to do so, when I feel that the price could/should be higher and when I believe that my team has a very strong chance of coming out on top. This one fits the bill. The Jackets are actually on a bit of a roll these days and they beat the Wings by a 3-0 score at Columbus yesterday. The Wings are still the superior team though and now they're playing at their home rink. Yesterday's shutout loss should ensure the Jackets get their full attention today. In fact, the Jackets have now beaten the Wings three straight times. I expect to see a VERY DETERMINED Detroit team. As noted, both teams played yesterday. That should work in Detroit's favor too. The Jackets are an ugly 12-27 (-9.3) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. 1-4 (-2.4) their last five. On the other hand, the Wings are a respectable 20-13 (+6.6) when playing the second of b2b games, 3-2 (+1.2) their last five in that situation. While the Wings are a modestly profitable 8-6 (+1.8) when playing with "revenge," they're a perfect 6-0 (+7.3) on the season, after scoring one goal or less, in their previous game. The Wings are still a commanding 29-8 the last 37 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion here. 7* blue marlin |
|||||||
03-09-13 | Dallas Stars v. Phoenix Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been involved in some recent high-scoring games. I believe that those results have worked in our favor, in a couple of different ways.
For starters, I expect both teams to be motivated to improve defensively, particularly the Coyotes. Phoenix gave up six goals last time out - and that surely doesn't sit well with the coaching staff. The Stars have already returned to playing a better brand of defensive hockey. After allowing four or more goals in three straight games, they've allowed just three combined goals their past two games. Phoenix player David Moss had this to say: "If you're giving up four, five or six goals a game, you're not going to win no matter how good of an offense you have. We are a team that should be comfortable in those tight, little scoring games and right now we're giving up too many chances in the house area. It's killing us." Additionally and perhaps more importantly, the recent results have caused this line to climb from five to 5.5. True, we have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I still feel it will prove to be worth it. The difference between five and 5.5 is indeed significant. Looking at some long-term stats and we find the UNDER at 222-162 (excluding pushes) the last 10+ years when the Stars had scored four or more goals in their previous game and 217-150 when they were off a win by two or more goals. These teams have met three times this season, all three games had an O/U line of five. Both games at Dallas were high-scoring. The Stars won both by identical 4-3 scores. The lone meeting here at Phoenix was considerably lower-scoring though. I successfully backed the Coyotes in that game, they won by a score of 2-0. Including that shutout victory, the UNDER is 5-0-1 the last six times that the Coyotes hosted the Stars. ALL six o those games finished with five or fewer goals. They had scores of 3-2, 2-1, 3-2, 3-0, 2-1 and 2-0. That's an average of only 3.5 goals per game. I expect this one to also finish with five or fewer goals. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-09-13 | MON CANADIENS v. TB LIGHTNING -104 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Canadiens are off to a great start to the season and they already beat the Lightning once. The Lightning are arguably still the more talented team though, at least in my opinion. In this case, I also expect them to be a little more hungry than their guests.
The Canadiens did have yesterday off. However, they're playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip. They're 7-10 (-4) the past couple of seasons, after playing their previous three or more games on the road. While the Habs are outscoring opponents by a solid 3.1 to 2.7 margin on the road, the Lightning are outscoring teams by a wider 3.8 to 2.8 margin at home. While the Canadiens are off an impressive 4-2 victory, that came against a Carolina team which was without its #1 goalie and which doesn't have the type of firepower that the Lightning do on offense. Note that Montreal hasn't won back-to-back games in weeks. Each of the Canadiens last four victories has been followed by a loss. Its also worth mentioning that Montreal is 21-30 (-10.9) the past couple of seasons, after scoring four or more goals. Additionally, it should be noted that the Lightning were favored in the -130 to -135 range for last month's game here and that we're getting much better value here. Prior to last month's loss here, the Lightning were 4-1 their previous five games as as host in this series. I expect them to avenge last month's loss, earning the valuable two points along the way. 10* best bet. |
|||||||
03-08-13 | Calgary Flames v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Calgary and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Ducks' last game to finish below the total. Anaheim won that game by a score of 2-0, one of the two goals coming on an empty net, at the end of the game. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here.
After Wednesday's 2-0 victory, Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau commented: "We were mad that we gave up four goals the last two games and we know solid defense is going to win you more than just games. It's going to win division titles and championships." Needless to day, Boudreau would love to a see a similar type of effort here. The Flames got their #1 goalie (Kiprusoff) back last time out and promptly limited the Sharks to a single goal, winning 4-1. Calgary coach Bob Hartley said this of his top netminder: "I felt that Kiprusoff was solid right from the get-go. He was seeing all the pucks and that's such a good feeling for guys on the bench, for coaches, and probably for fans.'' These teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Calgary early this season. However, Calgary's games here at Anaheim have been low-scoring in recent seasons. The UNDER is 12-7-1 the last 20 times that the Flames visited here. That includes a 7-2 UNDER mark the Flames last nine visits here, 2-0 in last season's two meetings here. After the Ducks only previous shutout win, their next game finished with a score of 3-1. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-07-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Tampa Bay Lightning -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Lightning snapped their losing streak in a big way last time out, knocking off New Jersey by a score of 5-2. Now with some positive momentum and facing a team they match up well against, I expect them to string together consecutive victories.
These teams met once earlier this season. The Lightning dominated, winning 8-3. That brought them to 3-0 their last three against the Jets. Going back further and we find the Lightning at a commanding 15-3 the last 18 in the series, dating back to when the Jets were the Thrashers and playing out of Atlanta. A look back at the earlier meeting shows that the Lightning were laying a price of -200. With that game being played on 2/1, that was only about five weeks ago. Yet, now we're getting them at a significantly reduced rate. I feel that's providing us with very fair value. *10 personal favorite |
|||||||
03-06-13 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. This is kind of a unique scheduling spot, at least for the regular season. That's because these teams will be playing each other for the third consecutive game. That's normal in baseball but not other hockey.
The first two games, both of which were played at Phoenix, were both high-scoring. Each had the same scoring pattern. The Coyotes won both by a score of 5-4, via the shootout. The results from the last two games have many expecting another high-scoring affair this evening. Those results have also caused tonight's O/U line to climb from five to 5.5. Needless to say, that's a significant difference. Teams rarely play the same "style" of game over and over. With the venue shifting to California, I expect a far more defensive game here. The Ducks have seen the UNDER go 5-3-1 at home, including a 5-1 UNDER mark in six games here with an O/U line of 5.5. The Coyotes have limited opponents to two power-play goals in 21 chances over their last seven road games. Not surprisingly, four of their last six road games have finished with five or fewer goals. They've seen the UNDER go 14-7-3 the past couple of seasons, after playing three straight at home. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-05-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. NY Rangers -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. Both these teams have started to get back on track recently. Each are off back-to-back victories. With this game being played at MSG, I feel that the Rangers will be the team which extends its winning streak.
This will be the third meeting of the season already. The first game was played at Philadelphia, the Flyers winning by a 2-1 score. They faced each other a few days later, here at NY, and the the Rangers returned the favor, matching the Flyers with a 2-1 victory of their own. With that win, the Rangers are a dominating 9-1 the last 10 meetings in this series, 5-0 the last five at MSG. They won those five games by a combined score of 20-5. This season, the Rangers are 8-5 at home, outscoring teams by a 3.0 to 2.5 margin here, outshooting them by a 33-27.2 margin. Conversely, the Flyers are 4-8 on the road, getting outscored 3.3 to 2.9. Throw in the fact that the Rangers are also healthier and I feel this price is more than fair. 8* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-03-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Carolina and Florida to finish UNDER the total. These teams met at Raleigh yesterday, the Canes winning by a 6-2 score. I expect today's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring.
Needless to say, after giving up six goals yesterday, the Panthers will be looking for a much better defensive effort here. Note that the UNDER is 58-36-14 the past few seasons, when the Panthers attempted to avenge an earlier loss. During that stretch, the UNDER is 15-11-5 when Florida has played the second of back-to-back games, including a 2-0 mark this season. The Panthers managed a single goal in each of those games. The Canes have seen the UNDER go 4-2 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 5-3 after a win by more than a goal. I expect those stats to improve here. *10* blue chip |
|||||||
03-02-13 | Nashville Predators v. San Jose Sharks -140 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks came up a little short last time out, costing me in the process. However, I had won with them in their previous game and I'm willing to give them another shot here.
The Sharks should have no shortage of motivation. There are rumblings that their coach is on the hot seat, they're desperate to get back on track and into the playoff race AND they're playing with "double-revenge," having already been beaten by the Predators twice this season. San Jose figures to be catching Nashville at the right time. The normally stingy Preds have given up four or more goals in three straight games and they're only 2-5 their last seven. During that stretch, they've given up 26 goals, nearly four per game. Even with the loss here last month, the Sharks are still 20-10-1 the last 31 times that they hosted the Preds. They were laying -185 the last meeting here. We're getting a much better price to work with here and I believe that's providing very fair value. *8 |
|||||||
03-02-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. Vancouver Canucks -125 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. I've been riding the Kings of late. So, I'm well aware that they've been playing well and are on a winning streak. That doesn't mean that I'm not willing to go against them though.
Tonight, the defending Stanley Cup champs are walking into a hornet's next. They'll be taking on the 2-time defending "President Trophy" (league's best regular season) team, one is well rested and one which has tons of motivation. Note that LA has a losing record (5-6) on the road this season and that the Kings are only 2-3 (-2) when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Canucks were thinking Stanley Cup last season. They might have done it too, if not for getting matched up against the Kings. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten. Adding fuel to the fire, the Canucks also lost at LA early this season. This is their first shot at the Kings here at Vancouver though, a game Canucks' players and fans have had circled since the schedule was released. Note that Vancouver is an outstanding 53-25 (+13.6) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 7-2 (+4.2) their last nine in that situation. During that stretch, the Canucks are also a commanding 13-3 (+7.8) when playing with three day's rest in between games. I believe the price is reasonable and I say its payback time for the highly motivated and well-coached Canucks. 10* personal favorite |
|||||||
03-02-13 | ANA DUCKS v. PHO COYOTES -116 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Ducks have been one of this year's biggest surprises. After a dismal season last year, they're one of this season's top teams. That said, I feel that they're in a tough spot.
The Ducks jumped out to a lead over the Wild last night and managed to hang on for a 3-2 win. They're only 99-126 (-23.2) the last 200+ times that they played the second of b2b games though and tonight they'll be taking on a rested Coyotes team, one which is arguably better than many are giving them credit for. The Coyotes lost a tough one (5-4 vs. Wild) on Thursday. That was their first game back off a road trip though, one which concluded with a win at Vancouver, which can be a tough spot. They'd won their previous two home games by a combined score of 9-3. The Coyotes are already 5-2 (+3.9) after allowing four or more goals. They beat the Ducks 4-0 the last time they faced them, (last March) a game that they were laying -170 for. Now, despite having the schedule in their favor, we're getting them in the pick'em range. I feel that's providing excellent value and I expect them to scratch and claw their way to an important two points. *9 |
|||||||
03-01-13 | EDM OILERS v. STL BLUES -162 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Both teams played last night. The Oilers scored an upset win at Dallas. The Blues were beaten by Chicago.
The Blues are 1-0 this season, when playing a home game after playing the previous day. They've won four of six, since last season, when playing the second of b2b games. Unlike the Oilers, they didn't have to travel last night. The fact that they lost should make them extra "hungry" here. The Blues are 5-0 the last five times that they were a host in this series. They outscored the Oilers by a 16-7 margin in those games. Last night notwithstanding, I feel the Blues are still the stronger team. I expect them to demonstrate that fact in convincing fashion here. *6 |
|||||||
02-28-13 | DET RED WINGS v. SJ SHARKS -168 | 2-1 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. I successfully played against the Wings last night. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so.
While the Sharks had last night off, the Wings were off a heart-breaker at LA. They had a 1-0 lead into the third period but lost 2-. As I pointed out last night, the Wings haven't been nearly as good on the road as they've been at home. In fact, with last night's loss, they're now 2-6 away from Detroit, getting outscored by a 3.1 to 2.2 average margin in those games. On the other hand, the Sharks are 6-3 at home, outscoring opponents by a 2.9 to 2.0 margin here. The Sharks are 6-2 the last few seasons, when hosting the Wings. They got back on track last time out and I look for them to follow it up with another win tonight. *7 |
|||||||
02-28-13 | New Jersey Devils v. WINNIPEG JETS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Jersey and Winnipeg to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other at NJ last week, the Jets earning a 4-2 win. I'm expecting this evening's rematch to be lower-scoring.
The UNDER is 49-30-19 the past few seasons when the Devils have attempted to avenge an earlier loss. That includes a 23-14-8 mark when that loss came at home. Keep in mind that the majority of those "pushes" were games which had an O/U line of five. Tonight, we're getting a number of 5.5 to work with instead of five. Big difference. Note that the Devils have seen the UNDER go 126-78 the past 200+ times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, the UNDER is a lucrative 172-103-30 after they allowed four or more goals in their previous game, 29-19-7 the past couple of seasons. The Devils most recent game here had a final score of 2-1. With their road games averaging only 4.8 goals this season, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. *10 blue chip |
|||||||
02-28-13 | TOR MAPLE LEAFS v. NY Islanders -130 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS. The Isles knocked off the Leafs by a score of 7-4 when the teams met at Toronto last month. With the schedule in their favor and tonight's rematch being played at Long Island, I expect the Isles to have the advantage once again.
While the Isles had yesterday off, the Leafs were busy losing vs. arch-rival Montreal. The last time that they played the second of back-to-back games, the Leafs lost 4-2 at Tampa. Including that setback, they're just 12-22 (-6.9) the last 2+ seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. I expect the Isles to have the fresher legs and I look for them to come away with the important two points. *9 |
|||||||
02-27-13 | DET RED WINGS v. LA KINGS -159 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA KINGS. The Kings weren't the best team during the regular season last year. However, they caught fire at the right time and went on a huge winning streak when it counted, en route to winning their first Stanley Cup. Don't look now but, after a bit of a slow start, the champs have that look to them again.
Last time out, facing a red hot Anaheim squad, the Kings avenged an earlier loss with a 5-2 victory. That was their fourth straight victory and sixth win in their last seven games. (The lone loss came on the road, vs. a Chicago team which is currently setting records.) Once again, the Kings find themselves in the "revenge" role. This time, its the Red Wings, a team which defeated them 3-2 at Detroit about 2.5 weeks ago. A closer look at that 2/10 meeting shows that the Kings actually outshot the Wings by a 47-31 margin. Tonight's rematch is at LA, which is certainly significant. That's primarily because the Wings haven't been nearly as good away from Detroit this season. In fact, they're only 2-5 on the road and they've been outscored by a 3.3 to 2.4 margin in those games. The fact that they're dealing with several injuries hasn't helped matters. Note that the Kings won 5-2 the last time that they were a host in the series. Including that 5-2 loss here last March, the Wings are an ugly 5-13 (-8.7) the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. I expect the surging Kings to keep on rolling for another day, improving to 41-24 (+11.5) the last 65 times that they were off a win or greater than a goal. 10* personal favorite |
|||||||
02-26-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. San Jose Sharks -162 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks are fairly heavy favorites here. However, given the talent gap between these teams, I feel that the price could actually be even higher.
These teams met once this season. The Sharks dominated that 1/26 meeting, winning by a score of 4-0. They outshot the Avs by a 43-24 margin. Naturally, the Avs would like to avenge that loss. That's often easier said than done for this team though. In fact, Colorado is only 42-66 (-24.2) when playing with "revenge" the past few seasons. The previous meeting here (last March) saw the Sharks win by a 5-1 score. Including those victories, the Sharks are 5-0 as a host in the series the past few seasons. Desperate to get back on track, I expect this talented team to get back on track, continuing its home ice dominance in the series. *6 |
|||||||
02-26-13 | CAL FLAMES v. MIN WILD -142 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. These teams faced each other at Calgary a few nights ago. The Flames won that one and then proceeded to beat Phoenix the following night. The Wild haven't played since. With tonight's rematch being played at Minnesota, I expect the revenge-minded and well-rested Wild to get some payback.
While the Flames won 5-4 on Sunday, they're an ugly 20-38 (-21.2) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a 1-5 (-4.7) mark in that situation the past few seasons. With the Flames averaging 2.5 gpg on the road and the Wild allowing only 2.2 here at home, I feel that its unlikely we see another offensive outburst from Calgary tonight. Note that Calgary is still without its #1 goalie. While the Wild struggle on the road, they're 6-2-1 here at Minnesota. They beat the Flames the last time the teams met here and I expect them to do do again here. *8 |
|||||||
02-26-13 | CAR HURRICANES v. WAS CAPITALS -128 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Both these teams will be hungry here. Not only are they division rivals but former Capital Alexander Semin is now with Carolina and will now be up against his old team. With the game being played at Washington, expect the Caps to have the advantage.
Undoubtedly, Semin would love to stick it to his old team. That's probably more true than ever since Washington's Troy Brouwer recently publicly questioned Semin's effort, over his time in Washington. Still, Semin is only one player - and the entire Capital team should be motivated to prevent their former teammate from rolling into town and showing them up. That includes Washington's Alexander Ovechkin, a friend of Semin's. Ovechkin, considered to be among the top two or three players in the world only a couple of years ago, looked like his old self last time out, recording a hat trick. (The Caps won 5-1.) He's been a bit streaky over his career and I expect him to build some momentum from his effort last game. The Canes are off a 4-2 win at Long Island on Sunday. However, they'd previously lost three straight and they're a money-burning 14-29 (-15.6) the past few seasons, after a win by two or more goals. During that stretch, the Caps are 31-22 (+3.1) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Caps, who are trailing Carolina in the division, need this game more and I expect them to improve to 28-14-2 the last 44 times that they were a host in the series. *8 |
|||||||
02-25-13 | ANA DUCKS v. LA KINGS -143 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA KINGS. The Ducks have arguably been the biggest over-achivers so far this season. Give them credit for playing well. That said, they're in a tough spot here and I expect them to stumble.
While the Ducks have been playing well all season, the Kings are starting to also play very well. In fact, they've won three straight and five of their last six. The lone loss came at Chicago - against a Blackhawks team which is currently setting records. They allowed only a single goal in all five of those wins and each of the victories in their current 3-game streak has come by multiple goals. While the defending champs had last night off, the Ducks are off an OT game last night. They've played well in that situation so far this season but that still doesn't mean that its ideal. The Kings are 39-24 (+9.5) the past few seasons, when off a win by two or more goals. Playing with revenge from a blowout loss at Anaheim, I expect the champs to rise to the occasion, making a statement that they're still the top team in their state. *10 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-24-13 | WINNIPEG JETS v. NJ DEVILS -158 | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Both these teams were in action yesterday afternoon. The Devils lost 5-1 at Washington. The Jets coughed up a lead at Philadelphia, losing 5-3. I expect that scheduling situation to favor the Devils.
Despite suffering a loss the last time it was in that situation, New Jersey is an impressive 10-3 the last 13 times that it played the second of back-to-back games. On the other hand, the Jets are an ugly 3-12 the last 15 times that they played the second of back-to-back games, 2-11 when doing so on the road. The Devils have dominated the Jets. They're 6-1 the last seven in this series and 15-5 the last 20. That includes a 5-0 mark at New Jersey. The most recent meeting resulted in a 5-1 NJ victory. All signs point to more of the same here. *7 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-24-13 | WINNIPEG JETS v. NJ DEVILS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -137 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on New Jersey and Winnipeg to finish UNDER the total. Both teams saw their game yesterday finish above the total, each giving up five goals. I expect both to be motivated to improve defensively here.
The last time that the Devils allowed five goals (2/16) they saw their next game finish with a score of 2-1. Including that result, the UNDER is 172-102-30 the last 300+ times that they allowed four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a 29-18-7 UNDER mark when they've been in that situation the past couple of seasons. The UNDER is 4-2 the last six times that the Devils played the second of back-to-back games. The UNDER is 9-7-4 the last 20 times that these teams met, dating back to when the Jets were the Thrashers. Thirteen of those 20 games produced five or fewer goals. I expect this one to do the same.*9 blue chip |
|||||||
02-24-13 | BOS BRUINS v. FLA PANTHERS +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -212 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing Florida at +1.5 goals. (Puck-Line.) With the Bruins fairly steep road favorites, we're able to get the Panthers at +1.5 goals for a "relatively" reasonable price.
The Panthers are only 4-7 their last 11 games. However, four of those losses came by a single goal. So, they'd be 8-3 their last 11, if getting +1.5 goals each time. The Bruins have seen four of their last six wins come by a single goal. If asked to lay -1.5 goals each time out, they'd be only 2-7 their last nine. The Panthers won the most recent meeting in the series and the one before that was a 1-goal loss. I feel the Panthers have a great shot at another upset here and expect them to earn AT LEAST the cover. *6 |
|||||||
02-23-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. St Louis Blues -222 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. At first glance, this line seems pretty high. I feel that it could easily be even higher though.
Keep in mind that the Blues are laying -200 a few weeks ago at Columbus (they won 4-1) and that now they're back home at St. Louis. They're 25-9-1 against Jackets here. Note that the Jackets are currently getting outscored by an average score of 3.2 to 1.9 on the road, getting outshot 30.7 to 23.7 in those games. On the other hand, the Blues are outshooting teams by a 29 to 20.2 average margin here at St. Louis. Off back to back losses, the Blues should be extremely motivated here. They're a team which tends to take care of business against bad teams, going 43-26 (+4.9) against losing teams the past couple of seasons. On the other hand, the Jackets are a dismal 27-62 (-22.9) against winning teams, during the same period. Add it all up and I expect a solid victory for the home team. *6 blue marlin |
|||||||
02-23-13 | NY Islanders v. BUFF SABRES -120 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Its been a tough stretch for the Sabres. That led to the dismissal of long-time coach Lindy Ruff. The shake-up wasn't enough to snap the Sabres' funk, as they lost their first game under interim coach Ron Rolston. Coaching changes to typically provide a spark to NHL teams though, if only temporarily. Playing at home against a team they know they can beat, I expect the Sabres to rise to the occasion and to stop the bleeding.
Buffalo forward Tyler Ennis said this of the coaching move: "It's a change that if we're playing better doesn't happen, but we're moving forward. I think (Rolston's) a great coach. We just have to get some wins." "Coach" Rolston added: "Most importantly, we need to generate more shots, more scoring chances. We've got to shoot and get more traffic in front. We've got the guys back there on defense who can really shoot it. If we can establish that, it should really open things up for us.'' Facing an Islander team which allows nearly 3.5 goals per game on the road (and more than 33 shots) should help in that area. Miller sparkled in goal for the Sabres when they beat the Islanders at Long Island. He's got a stellar 1.95 GAA his last three games against them. While the Isles would surely love to avenge that loss, note that they're only 35-69 the last 100+ times they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. The Sabres are 11-8 (+2.7) the past couple of seasons, when off three or more consecutive victories. I look for them to step up and get Rolston a win. *9 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-22-13 | San Jose Sharks +1.5 v. Chicago Blackhawks | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on San Jose on the Puck-Line. (+1.5 goals.) The Sharks got back on track last time out, upsetting the Blues by a score of 2-1. That victory snapped an extended losing streak. With the monkey off their back, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's contest vs. Chicago.
While I do feel the Sharks have an excellent shot at the outright victory, I'm willing to lay the extra juice to get them at +1.5 goals. Admittedly, the cost of doing so is a bit steep. However, given the high percentage of games being decided by a single goal this season and by both teams of late, I believe that the price is actually very fair. The Hawks are also off a 1-goal game, as they took out Vancouver, a team they hate, by a score of 4-3. That was their second straight game decided by a single goal. Going back further finds that eight of their last 12 were decided by a single goal. Tuesday's win at St Louis marked the seventh time in their last 10, that the Sharks had a game decided by a single goal. The Hawks have been playing well and are a talented team. They're not unbeatable though and are starting to deal with some injury issues. The Sharks are playing with "double-revenge," having lost both of this season's meetings already. I expect their best effort and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. *9 |
|||||||
02-21-13 | Vancouver Canucks v. Dallas Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other at Vancouver last week. The Stars won by a score of 4-3. Including that result, the "over" is now 8-0 the last eight times that the Stars visited Vancouver. This game is being played at Dallas though and games here have been an entirely different story.
In fact, the UNDER is a highly lucrative 14-2-3 the last 19 times that the Canucks played here. When considering that two of those "pushes" finished with exactly five goals, that means that 16 of Vancouver's last 19 visits here produced five or fewer combined goals. While Tuesday's game at Chicago did top the total, the Canucks have still seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Note that the UNDER is also 24-18-5 the past couple of seasons, after Vancouver had allowed four or more goals in its previous game. While Monday's game vs Calgary did finish above the total, the Stars have still seen the UNDER go 36-26 the past couple of seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect both teams to emphasize an improved effort on defense and for the final score to again finish with five or fewer combined goals. *10 blue chip |
|||||||
02-20-13 | PHI FLYERS v. PITT PENGUINS -154 | 6-5 | Loss | -154 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Penguins already won at Philadelphia earlier this season. However, they still haven't forgotten that it was their instate rivals who knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Well-rested, healthy and playing great hockey, I expect the Pens to take care of business again today.
The Pens check in off three straight victories. Known for their potent offense, the Pens are also sound defensively and between the pipes. In fact, they have now allowed three or fewer goals in 10 straight games, allowing an average of exactly 2.0 goals per game, during that stretch. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is now 6-1 with a 2.01 goals-against average in his last seven starts. That should spell some trouble for a Flyers team which is averaging only 2.6 gpg on the road, while permitting 3.2. Note that those numbers were a lot worse before a 7-0 win at Long Island last time out. (Prior to that game, the Flyers were being outscored by an average of 3.5 to 2.2 away from Philadelphia.) Even with Monday's win, the Flyers are still just 3-8 on the road. Note that they're also only 25-31 (-19.3) the past couple of seasons, off a win by two or goals. Playing the final game of a 6-game road trip, still dealing with significant injury issues, stepping up in class and with a home game on deck tomorrow, I expect them to struggle here. The Pens are loaded with talent and Sidney Crosby is again playing like he's the best player in the world. They're 24-11 (+9.4) the last 35 times that they played with two day's rest in between games and I look for them to keep on rolling for another day. *7 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-19-13 | San Jose Sharks +1.5 v. St Louis Blues | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE at +1.5 goals. Given the situation, I quite like the Sharks to score the upset here. However, with such a high number of games being decided by a single goal and with this one likely to be closely contested the entire way, I'm willing to lay the extra juice to get an extra 1.5 goals and to improve my chances of winning.
The Blues come in on a roll. However, this is their first game back off a road trip. They're off an emotional game at Vancouver and than had to wait around, as there was a problem with their plane. The Sharks are desperate. They got off a great start but have been mired in a losing streak. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort. Of course, the fact that the Blues eliminated them from the playoffs last season should provide even further incentive. The well rested Sharks are 13-6 (+3.6) against the moneyline the last 19 times that they played with three or more day's rest. They lost the last time that they were in that situation. However, that loss was by a score of 1-0. No big surprise there. The Sharks have seen six of their last nine decided by a single goal. Meanwhile, the Blues have seen four of their last six victories come only one. I'm expecting AT LEAST a "cover" from a desperate SJ team which still hasn't forgotten last spring. *6 |
|||||||
02-19-13 | San Jose Sharks v. St Louis Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis and San Jose to finish UNDER the total. We to pay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that the price prove to be worth it.
You may recall that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. Those games had O/U lines of five AND bettors were having to lay extra juice to play on the Under. With a large number of games finishing with exactly five goals, getting that extra half goal is certainly significant. A closer look at the games between these teams here at St Louis shows that the UNDER is 6-0-1 the last seven. Those games had scores of 3-1, 3-0, 2-3, 3-0, 1-0, 4-1 and 2-0. Going back a little further finds the UNDER at 13-2-1 the last 16 times that the Sharks played here. While the Blues have admittedly been a high-scoring team thus far, that's not the way that they want to play. They're still a defensive-oriented team. Facing a SJ squad which has seen the UNDER go 9-2 its last 11, I expect things to return to "normal" this evening, the UNDER improving to 29-16-2 the past few seasons, when the Blues were off a game in which they scored four or more goals. *10 blue chip |
|||||||
02-19-13 | TOR MAPLE LEAFS v. TB LIGHTNING -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Leafs have been on quite a roll of late. In fact, they're off back-to-back shutout wins and are now 6-1 their last seven. While that has fans in Toronto very excited, I expect the Leafs' streak to come to an end this evening.
The Leafs may have blanked the Panthers and the Sens. They're facing a TB team which scored six times in its last game, one which averages a whopping 4.7 gpg here at home. In other words, don't expect another shutout. While the Lightning had the past two nights off, the Leafs played last night. Therefore its worth noting that they're only 12-21 (-5.9) the last 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. With the O/U having climbed all the way to six, note that the Lightning are an outstanding 14-1 (+13.1) the last 15 times that they played a home game with an O/U of six or greater. Throw in the fact that the Lightning still have a score to settle when the Leafs embarrassed them here last season and I expect a relatively convincing victory for the home team. *8 Personal Favorite |
|||||||
02-18-13 | CAL FLAMES v. PHO COYOTES -160 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the Phoenix Coyotes. Calgary comes limping into the desert on Monday, after playing yesterday afternoon in Dallas. The Flames came storming back in the third, scoring three unanswered goals to overcome a 3-1 deficit, winning 4-3. They might find it more difficult to come back if they fall behind against this Coyotes team. While the Flames were fortunate to take advantage of a struggling backup netminder in yesterday's game, the Coyotes have a pair of capable goalies with Jason Labarbera and Mike Smith.
Calgary on the other hand is still without Miikka Kiprusoff, and they have sent backup goalie Leyland Irving to the AHL after he failed to impress in four starts this season. That leaves Calgary with a pair of goalies that didn't even start the season with an NHL club. Joey MacDonald has allowed six goals on 51 shots over the better part of Calgary's last two games, and 26 year old Danny Taylor has only played one period in the NHL so far in his career, allowing a pair of goals. The Coyotes have won three of their last four, and they are currently sitting in eighth place in the Western Conference, in good position to earn a playoff spot. They have a respectable 5-3-1 record in Glendale this year, and they have won four straight when coming off one day of rest. The Flames are likely to have tired legs playing in the second leg of a back to back, and their third game in four nights. They have really struggled in these situations this season, and they have lost four in a row when playing the last game of a 3-in-4. This is only going to make it that much more difficult for Calgary to overcome a disadvantage with its unproven goaltenders. *7 |
|||||||
02-18-13 | OTT SENATORS v. NJ DEVILS -179 | 2-1 | Loss | -179 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the New Jersey Devils. The Devils will be looking to respond to a lopsided loss to the Isles over the weekend, when they host Ottawa on Monday. The Sens are reeling after losing their two best players. Already without last season's leading scorer Jason Spezza, they lost Norris Trophy winning defenseman Erik Karlsson to a season ending Achilles injury on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. They went on to lose that game, and then lost again to the Leafs, getting shutout in a 3-0 game on Saturday.
The Sens are still one of the league's best defensive teams, allowing fewer than two goals per game, good enough to rank third in the NHL in that category. It doesn't do them any good if they can't score though, and that has been the case at times this season. Ottawa has scored just twice in their last two games, losing two in a row. Only once in their last eight games have the Sens scored more than two goals. They have been shutout three times during that span, and they have lost six of eight. The Devils know a thing or two about playing defense themselves, they currently rank sixth in the NHL in goals against, allowing an average of 2.3 goals per game. Unlike the Senators, New Jersey doesn't have any trouble scoring goals, especially on the power-play. The Devils are converting on over 20 percent on their man-advantage opportunities this season. Prior to their loss to the Isles on Saturday, the Devils had won six of seven, scoring at least three goals in each of those victories. They should be in a good spot to earn a win against a banged up Ottawa team that they have defeated in eight of the previous nine meetings at Prudential Center. *6 |
|||||||
02-18-13 | OTT SENATORS v. NJ DEVILS UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Ottawa versus New Jersey to finish UNDER the total. Coming off a blowout loss to the Islanders on the road on Saturday, the Devils will look for a better effort defensively when they host the Senators on Monday. Johan Hedberg was between the pipes for the Devils in the loss to the Isles, and after allowing five goals on 33 shots, he'll likely be backing up Marty Brodeur against Ottawa.
Note that Broeduer has a 36-22-4 lifetime record vs. the Senators, with a solid .917 save-percentage. We're able to get some extra line value (plus or even money) on the Under, in part because of the Devils' recent streak of "overs" and also because Ben Bishop is expected to be in net instead of Anderson for Ottawa. While Anderson has indeed been excellent, that still shouldn't be cause for concern. The last time that Bishop played, he made 36 saves, suffering a 1-0 loss. He's excited at the chance to face Brodeur stating: "It's pretty cool. Watching him play growing up as a kid and getting the chance to play against him is really cool." While they have seen their last three finish above the number, four of the Devils previous five games had fallen below the total. Note that the UNDER is 54-33-11 the last 98 times that they'd seen their previous three games finish above the total, 8-4-3 their last 15 in that spot. The Sens are reeling after losing their two best players. Already without last season's leading scorer Jason Spezza, they lost Norris Trophy winning defenseman Erik Karlsson to a season ending Achilles injury on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. Between the two of them, Karlsson and Spezza combined for 162 points for the Sens last season, that's a lot of offense missing from their lineup. The Sens are still one of the league's best defensive teams, allowing fewer than two goals per game, good enough to rank third in the NHL in that category. It doesn't do them any good if they can't score though, and that has been the case at times this season. Ottawa has scored just twice in their last two games, losing two in a row. Only once in their last eight games have the Sens scored more than two goals. They have been shutout three times during that span, and they have lost six of eight. The Devils know a thing or two about playing defense themselves, they currently rank sixth in the NHL in goals against, allowing an average of 2.3 goals per game. The Sens have seen the total go under in four of their last five games overall, and seven of their last 10. Previous meetings between these two teams have resulted in the the total falling short of the number at a rate of 6-3-1 in the last 10. With the UNDER at 9-3-4 the last 16 times that the Sens played a road game with an O/U line of five or less, all signs point to another low-scoring affair. *10 blue chip |
|||||||
02-17-13 | STL BLUES v. VAN CANUCKS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis versus Vancouver to go UNDER the total. The Canucks had appeared to be in complete control of their last game at home against Dallas, but sloppy play in the third period resulted in two quick goals for Dallas, as the Stars stole one in Vancouver winning 4-3. They will look to avoid making a similar mistake as they take on St. Louis tonight at Roger Arena.
The Blues have now won back to back games after losing five straight in the beginning of February. Coach Ken Hitchcock still isn't satisfied with his team's play: "For us to get to the next level, we have to collectively enjoy the competition and not want it to be something different," Hitchcock said. "For me, we need to find 60 minutes in our game. We've been playing 40 minutes but we've had our foot off the accelerator. We're making some strides but we aren't there yet." Hitchcock will know that coming into Vancouver to play the Canucks, his team will need to be at their best. The Canucks are one of the top defensive teams in the league, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals against per game. They have also allowed fewer even strength (5-on-5) goals than any other team in the league. Both teams will be looking to tighten things up, improving on sloppy performances their last time out. Traditionally these teams have combined to play low scoring games in past meetings, as they have failed to tally more than five goals between them in any of the previous nine meetings dating back to 2009. This looks like it could be another low scoring game between two of the top teams in the Western Conference. 9* |
|||||||
02-17-13 | BOS BRUINS v. WINNIPEG JETS +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Winnipeg +1.5 goals. The Jets are the home underdog against the powerhouse Boston Bruins tonight, but I like Winnipeg's chances of pulling off the upset in this spot. While I believe there is a good chance they win outright, I feel it's an even stronger play to take the Jets +1.5 goals, as I think there is very little chance of the Jets getting blown out on home ice in this game.
Boston is off to a good start, sitting just three points out of first in the Eastern Conference, but the Bruins haven't been sharp lately. Boston is coming off back to back losses, to the Rangers and Sabres. Despite taking a lead into the third period of Friday's game at Buffalo, the Bruins surrendered three unanswered goals in the third and went on to lose 4-2. Goaltending has been one of Boston's strong points this season, but both Tuukka Rask and backup Anton Khudobin are coming off sub-par performances. Khubodin allowed four goals on just 26 shots in the loss to Buffalo, while Rask was beaten three times on 29 shots, and then beaten once more in the shootout versus the Rangers. The Bruins will need a better effort from their netminder if they want to get a win on the road tonight. Another sore point for the Bruins is their struggling power-play. They have only converted on 11.1 percent of their opportunities, ranking near last in the league with the man-advantage. The Jets have lost eight of 13 games so far, but half of those losses were in one-goal-games. One of those was a 2-1 overtime loss to the Bruins in just their second game of the season. Their last game versus Pittsburgh ended with a final score of 3-1 after the Penguins scored into an empty net, but the Jets gave Pittsburgh all they could handle. The game was a lot closer than the final score indicated. A similar effort from the Jets at home tonight will likely result in a victory, or at the very least, a cover. 6* |
|||||||
02-17-13 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
*9 analysis before noon
|
|||||||
02-16-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Edmonton Oilers -139 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Edmonton. The Oilers were embarrassed by the Dallas Stars in their last game, losing 4-1 at home. They have had plenty of time to think about that loss, with three days off since Tuesday. The Oilers will host Colorado tonight, and the Avs are banged up, with several key players out of the lineup due to injuries.
Colorado earned an overtime win in Minnesota in their last game, with J.S. Giguere getting the start. The veteran netminder made 26 stops en route to the victory, but he won't be available tonight, as he's left the team to due to personal reasons. That leaves 24 year old Semyon Varlamov to get the start tonight, and he's allowed three goals in each of his last three starts, losing all three. The Oilers will be looking to avenge a 3-1 loss to the Avs at home in Edmonton two weeks ago. With Colorado missing two of their top defensemen, their team captain, their leading scorer from last season as well as their veteran netminder, Edmonton should be able to take advantage of this weary group from Denver. This Oilers team is young, but loaded with talent, and it's only a matter of time before these young kids start lighting it up. The Avs have had one day of rest since their overtime victory over Minnesota, and they are just 1-5 in their last six such situations. The home team has come out on top in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, and it's the home team that appears to have a significant advantage in tonight's fixture. 7* |
|||||||
02-16-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Phoenix Coyotes -183 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Phoenix. The Columbus Blue Jackets were the league's worst team last season, and they are well on their way to a repeat performance this year. The Jackets lost last night in L.A., getting out-shot 22-13 by the Kings. They were held scoreless for over 57 minutes of regulation before breaking Jonathan Bernier's shutout bid with less than three minutes remaining. They have managed to score just four goals, while losing four in a row on the road.
A trip to Phoenix to play the defensive minded Coyotes in the second leg of a back-to-back might not help matters. The Jackets have only managed to score once, getting out-scored 7-1, while losing their last two visits to Glendale. Columbus has lost four of five on the road so far this season. Artem Anisimov left last night's game after taking a puck off the leg, and he's questionable for tonight's game in Phoenix. It's also questionable if James Wisniewski will be able to go tonight for the Jackets, he missed Friday's game due to personal reasons. Columbus doesn't win a lot of games at the best of times, but coming into Phoenix to face a hungry Coyotes team in a back to back situation, undermanned with a few key injuries is likely to be a recipe for disaster for the Jackets. They have lost five of their last six visits to Phoenix, and they are in a tough spot again tonight. 6* |
|||||||
02-16-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Nashville Predators -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
I'm play on Nashville. The Preds have won back to back games, and Pekka Rinne hasn't allowed a goal in either of those victories. As good as Rinner is, you also have to give credit to the defense playing in front of him. He was only forced to make 19 saves in a 3-0 shutout win over Phoenix on Thursday, and he hasn't had to face 30 shots in any of his last three starts. Rinne is among the league leaders in all major goaltending categories, ranking third with a 1.61 goals against average, fourth with a 9.38 save percentage, and eighth in wins with six victories and a record of 6-3-3.
Nashville will host the Ducks tonight, and Anaheim is off to a great start to the season, sitting second in the Western Conference just four points back of Chicago. The Ducks picked up another win in Detroit last night, and they will play their second game in as many nights in Nashville tonight. This will be the last game of a six game road trip, and Anaheim has already taken four of five so far. This sets up as a possible let down spot for the Ducks, who return home on Monday for a relatively easy matchup with Columbus. Anaheim won in overtime in the only meetings between these teams this season, but prior to that the Preds had owned Anaheim, winning six in a row versus the Ducks. Anaheim has lost it's last three visits to the Music City. Catching Pekka Rinne on the heels of back to back shutouts is the last thing the Ducks need, Rinne has dominated Anaheim in his career. The 30 year old Fin is 7-0-1 with a 1.54 goals against average and a pair of shutouts in his last eight starts against the Ducks. Needless to say, offense could be hard to come by for Anaheim tonight, and the Preds are in a good spot to take advantage of a tired team on a back-to-back. 10* GOM |
|||||||
02-16-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philadelphia vs Montreal to finish UNDER the total. The Flyers were in New Jersey last night, and they lost to the Devils by a score of 5-3. They don't have a lot of time to sit around and think about blowing a 3-1 lead, or giving up a pair of late third period goals, as they are on the ice again this afternoon. The Flyers will be in Montreal to take on the Habs at the Bell Center in their second game in as many nights.
Montreal is coming off a 1-0 victory in Florida, in a game that went scoreless through regulation, and was decided by a Rene Bourque goal in overtime. Carey Price stopped all 26 shots he faced in the shutout of the Panthers, and we will expect to see Price back in the net tonight against Philly. It was a nice bounceback performance for Price, who had been shaky in his previous two starts. The 25 year old netminder has been having a fantastic season overall, putting up some excellent numbers, ranking among the top goaltenders in the league. Price is 8-3 with a 2.06 goals against average and a .922 save percentage. Philadelphia hasn't had much success putting pucks in the net this season, ranking near the bottom of the league, averaging 2.5 goals per game. The Flyers had the top power-play in the NHL last season, but this year they have tailed off, clicking on fewer than 20% of their man-advantage situations. The Habs have also struggled with the man-advantage, as they have converted on just 1 of 14 with the power-play over their last three games. In fact goals have been hard to come by for Montreal in their last five games, failing to score more than once three times in that span. I don't expect to see a lot of open ice in this game between bitter Eastern Conference rivals, and this should turn into a defensive struggle with goals proving to be hard to come by. 7* |
|||||||
02-15-13 | St Louis Blues v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on St. Louis versus Calgary to finish UNDER the total. The Flames took advantage of a backup goaltender in their last game, blowing out the Dallas Stars by a score of 7-4, scoring six goals on just 22 shots on Richard Bachman on Wednesday. Calgary will look for another solid performance from it's own backup goaltender Leyland Irving, as they get set to take on St. Louis tonight.
The Blues are expected to start 22 year old rookie Jake Allen for the second straight game on Friday. Allen picked up a win in Detroit in his first career start, and he was only forced to make 15 saves in a 4-3 victory over the Wings. The Blues will give the Rookie an excellent chance to succeed, as they play a tight defensive style, limiting opponents to fewer than 20 shots on a regular basis. Both the Blues and the Flames have scored plenty of goals so far this season, but goals have been few and far between when these two teams have faced each other in recent years. The total has come up short of the number in each of the past six meetings in Calgary, and in eight of the last 10 meetings overall. Going a little farther back reveals that the under has hit at a rate of 17-3-2 in the past 22 meetings at the Saddledome. I expect to see this game dominated by the two defenses, as both teams are looking to protect their backup netminders. (9*) |
|||||||
02-15-13 | ANA DUCKS v. DET RED WINGS UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Anaheim versus Detroit to finish UNDER the total. The Ducks have emerged as one of the biggest surprises in the NHL this season. After missing the playoffs last year, they are currently in contention for first in the Western Conference. Anaheim is just four points back of Chicago, with a game in hand. The Ducks defeated the Blackhawks in Chicago by a score of 3-2 in a shootout on Tuesday.
Starting goaltender Jonas Hiller is on the shelf with an injury, however given the way Viktor Fasth has played so far, Hiller might have found it difficult to get in the lineup even if he was healthy. Fasth has yet to lose a game this season, posting some impressive numbers, while going 6-0 with a 1.74 goals against average to go along with a .933 save percentage. The Ducks are in Detroit tonight to take on the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena. The Wings have a hot goaltender of their own, as Jimmy Howard has been stellar between the pipes for Detroit in recent starts. Howard stopped 45 of 47 shots, while robbing the L.A. Kings on Sunday, in a game that the Wings had no business winning, but escaped with a 3-2 victory at home. Howard has owned the Ducks in his career, with three shutouts in 10 career starts, posting a record of 7-2-1 with a 2.00 goals against average. He has won all five of his home starts versus Anaheim. These two teams have combined to play low scoring games in six of their previous seven meetings. The UNDER ticket has payed out a winner in eight of the last 10 matchups between the Ducks and the Wings. The Ducks have seen the total go under in nine straight games when coming off two days of rest. I don't expect to see a lot of room for either team to create offense tonight, as both teams look to play a conservative defensive style.(9*) |
|||||||
02-15-13 | BOS BRUINS v. BUFF SABRES +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Buffalo +1.5 goals. I expect the Sabres to win this game. However, with the high number of over-time, shootout and 1-goal games occurring of late, I'm willing to lay some extra juice in order to significantly increase my chances of success.
The Bruins may be an impressive 7-3 their last 10 overall. However, a closer look reveals that only two of those games resulted in a win of greater than a goal. In other other words, they'd be 2-8 if being asked to lay 1.5 goals in each of those. Meanwhile, the Sabres have seen four of their last six games decided by a single goal, all six of those decided by two or less. The Sabres are sitting dead last in the East, but they are by no means out of contention. They are currently just four points back of the Rangers for the eighth and final playoff spot. One of the biggest concerns for the Sabres early on this season has been the inconsistent play of goalie Ryan Miller, but Miller has really turned it on in his last few starts. Miller is coming off a string of three consecutive impressive performances, but with Buffalo scoring just one goal over their last two games, they have lost two in a row. ??One of those losses came against Boston on Sunday, losing a close game by a score of 3-1. The Bruins started their backup goaltender in that game, and Anton Khudobin stopped 25 of 26 shots, and was named the game's first star. Tuukka Rask is the probable stater tonight, and he's coming off a below average effort against the Rangers, allowing three goals on 29 shots in a 4-3 shootout loss. Rask has really struggled in previous meetings in Buffalo, with a record of 0-2-1 with a 3.62 goal against average, while getting the hook in two of four starts. He was also lit up for six goals in a 7-4 loss at home against the Sabres on January 31. ?? No matter who goes, the Bruins netminder can likel expect to see plenty of rubber tonight, as the Sabres are in desperate need of a win, and they will be throwing everything at the net. Buffalo fired 42 shots on Craig Anderson in a 2-0 loss to Ottawa in their last game, but they were stymied by Anderson, who leads the NHL in save percentage. I expect a similar effort against the Bruins tonight to yield AT LEAST a "cover" here. *6 |
|||||||
02-14-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Minnesota Wild -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota. The Wild are coming off a hard fought 2-1 loss at Vancouver on Tuesday, and they will take a step down in competition when they host the Colorado Avalanche tonight. The Avs are banged up, missing several key players due to injury. Colorado isn't one of the more talented teams in the league at the best of times, so when the Avs lose a few skilled players, it may hurt them more than most
The injuries just keep piling up for the Avalanche, they were already without their Captain Gabriel Landeskog, and winger Steve Downie, but then they lost defenseman Erik Johnson to a head injury in their loss to Phoenix on Monday. Adding insult to injury, the team has still failed to come to terms with holdout Ryan O'Reilly, who would be one of their top centers. Colorado won't have much of a chance to turn things around if they continue to struggle on the power-play. They have the worst power-play in the league, clicking at a rate of just 8.1 percent on the man-advantage. Minnesota hasn't exactly been lighting it up on offense either this year, despite adding some big name talent in the off-season. The Wild have a lot of weapons, including Zach Parise, Danny Heatley and Mikko Koivu. With a home record of 5-2, and going up against a team that has been just gutted by injuries, they appear to be in a good spot to break out tonight, and get a win at home. (8*) |
|||||||
02-14-13 | WAS CAPITALS v. TB LIGHTNING -141 | 4-3 | Loss | -141 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Tampa Bay. The Lightning have lost five straight, but they showed a lot of fight in their last game rallying from a 3-0 deficit with under six minutes remaining, to tie the game and force overtime against Montreal. The Habs went on to win in a shootout, but the Lightning earned a point that had appeared to be so far out of reach.
The Lightning are the highest scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.8 goals per game so far, and they will get a chance to face a struggling Capitals netminder tonight. Braden Holtby surrendered five goals on 32 shots in his last start, a 6-5 Capitals victory. The 23 year old owns the worst goals against average of any netminder in the league (4.04). The Caps have really struggled versus the Lightning, winless in their last six visits to Tampa Bay. They have also allowed 25 goals during those six games. Given the way they have played so far this season, it seems unlikely that these trends will change in tonight's visit. The Bolts are a team loaded with offensive talent, and that has translated into a top tier power-play unit that ranks 3rd in the league, clicking at a rate of 27.5 percent. If the Caps can't stay out of the penalty box, they will have a tough time keeping Tampa from putting pucks in the net. With the Lightning in desperate need of a victory, there is no team they would be better off facing than the Capitals, and I expect Tampa to exploit this mismatch. (8*) |
|||||||
02-14-13 | TOR MAPLE LEAFS v. CAR HURRICANES -136 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina. The Leafs sure have looked good so far this year, but I remain unconvinced that this team that finished two points out of last in the Eastern Conference last year is as good as it's win/loss record indicates. I firmly believe that even if Toronto stays healthy, they will struggle to compete for a playoff spot this season. A recent rash of injuries could cause the Leafs to struggle sooner rather than later.
Toronto will come into Carolina tonight without it's starting goaltender, after James Reimer left his last start in the first period with knee injury. Ben Scrivens came in to replace Reimer in that game, and the 26 year old was solid, stopping 32 of 33 shots in a 5-2 victory over Philly. Scrivens has had his struggles this year though, and he has fairly poor numbers in 15 career starts. Scrivens is 6-7-2 lifetime as a starter, with a 2.97 goals against average and a .905 save percentage. The injuries don't stop there for Toronto, as they will also be without Matt Frattin and Joffrey Lupul. Both players will be missed, as Frattin was averaging a point per game this season, while Lupul finished with 67 points in 66 games last season. Carolina has been playing well of late, with four wins in it's last five games, the only loss coming in overtime. The Canes haven't had any trouble putting the puck in the net during that time, scoring 20 goals in that five game span. Carolina will be in a good spot to take advantage of a banged up Leafs team in Raleigh tonight. (8*) |
|||||||
02-13-13 | St Louis Blues v. Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis versus Detroit to go UNDER the Total. Coach Ken Hitchcock hasn't been pleased with his team's effort in recent games: "This is the homestand from hell," Hitchcock said. "We lost our goalie, we didn't play as well and now we've got to take this onto the road and we've got to be much more accountable to each other."
The Blues have been very successful under Ken Hitchcock, and as we witnessed a decade ago when Hitchcock was the bench boss of the Dallas Stars, he doesn't rely on having the most talented players, the fastest skaters or the biggest stars. Instead, Hitchcock expects his players to out-work their opponents and play within a system that is designed to stifle the opposition, not giving them any opportunity to generate offense. When this system works, you can see average goalies, like Marty Turko and Brian Elliot, or perhaps a rookie shine. When it breaks down, and the players stop playing within the system and allow themselves to get sloppy, it puts added pressure on the goalie and that is what I believe has happened to Brian Elliot. I expect the Blues, who appear to be going with Jake Allen between the pipes, to come into Detroit tonight, focused on playing a solid road game and getting back to the team they were at the beginning of this season, and all of last year. Meanwhile, Detroit is also a very solid defensive team, with a goalie who is capable of stealing the show when the players in front of him aren't at their best. Jimmy Howard absolutely stood on his head this weekend, stopping 45 of 47 shots against the L.A. Kings, a 3-2 victory in a game the the Kings dominated from start to finish. These two teams have played each other three times already this year, with the total going over in each of those games. They had played low scoring games in six straight meetings prior to this season though, and I expect another tight, low scoring game tonight.(10* Blue Chip) |
|||||||
02-13-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Pittsburgh Penguins -174 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh. The Penguins are coming off back-to-back losses to New Jersey in a home-and-home series this weekend. They have since had a couple of off days, to practice and rest up for tonight's game against Ottawa. The Senators have been a tough team to beat recently, as they have only allowed a single goal over their last two games. That being said, they still managed to lose one of those games, and they come in tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back.
The Penguins are hoping to see defenseman Kris Letang return to the lineup tonight, he missed both games against the Devils with a lower body injury. Letang has three goals and six assists in 10 games this season. Sidney Crosby has been held off the score sheet the last few games, but he will fancy his chances of tallying a few points against Ottawa tonight. Sid the Kid has feasted on the Senators in his career, scoring 49 points in 38 meetings, and 28 points in 18 home games against Ottawa. Crosby seems intent on putting the puck in the net tonight: "We need to play more in the opponent's zone," he said. "Our offensive zone time needs to get better. That's something we pride ourselves on. We want to improve in that area." Since the Senators lost Jason Spezza to a back injury, they have struggled to score goals. They have only found the net nine times over their last six games, and it isn't going to get any easier tonight against Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins starting netminder has won back-to-back starts at home, allowing just three goals in those games. This appears to be a tough spot for Ottawa, coming off a game last night and really struggling offensively in recent games. With tired legs the Senators may be prone to take a few lazy penalties, and that could prove to be costly. The Penguins are firing on all cylinders on the man-advantage, with a power-play that is clicking at a rate of 28 percent. I like the Penguins to snap their losing streak with a win at home against a tired Senators squad. (7* Personal Favorite) |
|||||||
02-12-13 | DAL STARS v. EDM OILERS -113 | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Edmonton. It's been just six days since the last time these teams faced each other, and Dallas won that game at Rexall Place with Jaromir Jagr scoring the game winner in overtime. It was a goal that Devan Dubnyk would like to have back, and it put a blemish on an otherwise solid performance. Dubnyk has been excellent since then, and he's coming off a dominant performance in Columbus on Sunday, stopping a season-high 39 shots in a 3-1 victory in a game that the Oilers really had no business winning.
Ryan Nudgent-Hopkins was not in the lineup the last time Dallas came to town, and he should give the Oilers a boost in his third game back since missing time with a shoulder injury. The 19 year old got on the score sheet with an assist in the Oilers win over Columbus. The Stars have been one of the most penalized teams in the league, and they will have to be wary of taking too many penalties against the Oilers, who own one of the NHL's top power-play units. The Oilers rank fifth in the league, clicking on over 24 percent of their man-advantage opportunities. They should enjoy a significant advantage on special teams, as the Stars power-play is below average, converting on just 17 percent of their chances. With these two teams locked in a four way tie with Minnesota and St. Louis for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, the loser of tonight's game will find itself on the outside looking in. The Oilers are in a much better spot than they had been in the previous meeting with Dallas. The Stars came into that game as a desperate bunch, and the Oillers were banged up, particularly thin down the middle. This time around, Dallas comes in as winners of four of it's last five, and perhaps feeling pretty good about themselves. "We've been winning now the last three games so we have to build on that," Loui Eriksson said. "We know it's going to be a tough road trip up here in Canada so it's going to be fun to get there and try to win the first one and just keep going." Interesting to hear Eriksson say "it's going to be fun", I think he may be in for a surprise if he's expecting it to be a cakewalk in Edmonton tonight. The Oilers will have the previous meeting in mind as they look to execute their revenge, and I expect them to play with a fire inside them that the Stars may not be able to match. 9* |
|||||||
02-11-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Toronto Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The Leafs are coming off a dominant outing, shutting out their rivals Montreal in a 6-0 blowout at the Bell Center. They will return home to Toronto to take on a Philly team that is desperately trying to establish themselves as a contender in the Eastern Conference. Needless to say, I would expect the Flyers to prove to be a tougher opponent in tonight's fixture.
Jame's Reimer made 37 stops earning a shutout in the win over Montreal, adding another solid performance to his already excellent start to the season. Reimer is 5-3 with a 2.30 goals against average, but an impressive .929 save percentage. We can expect to see the 24 year old back between the pipes on Monday, as he's been far superior to backup Ben Scrivens. The Flyers have been looking for an elite goaltender for several years now, and they thought the had found their man when they acquired Ilya Bryzgalov from Phoenix prior to last season. Bryzgalov didn't really win over the hearts of fans in his first season with Philly, failing to find consistency and that ended up costing the Flyers in the playoffs as they were swept by the Devils in the second round. It's been a different story for Bryzgalov in 2013, as he's consistently been solid between the pipes, often keeping the Flyers in games even when they have been outplayed. The 32 year old veteran has had more success against the Leafs than any other club, with a record of 5-0 and a goals against average of just 1.21. Aside from just strong goaltending, we have two bitter rivals fighting for position in the Eastern Conference standings, with little margin for error for teams that hope to be playing in the post-season. The Flyers won in a rout, blowing out the Leafs by a score of 7-1 in their last visit to Toronto. While that game got away from the Leafs, each of the previous four meetings in Toronto have been close low scoring games finishing under the total. I expect to see another close hard fought battle tonight, with goals being at a premium. (9* Best Bet) |
|||||||
02-10-13 | New Jersey Devils v. Pittsburgh Penguins -161 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -161 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh. These teams are playing the second leg of a home-and-home, with the Devils taking yesterday's game in New Jersey, winning 3-1 with a pair of late third period goals. The Penguins were undisciplined, taking too many penalties and New Jersey was able to convert twice on 10 chances with the man-advantage.
Back home in Pittsburgh, I expect the Penguins to do a better job of staying out of the box, and playing a more disciplined brand of hockey. Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh owns the second highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 3.5 goals per game. The Pens also have one of the league's most dangerous power-play units, converting on nearly 30% of their man advantage situations. Marc-Andre Fleury struggled between the pipes for the Pens in his first few starts this season, but he's since been pretty solid in each of his last four starts. He's now 5-2 with a 2.37 goals against average and a .909 save percentage. Assuming he's back in, I expect a big peformance from Fleury. Note that Fleury beat the Devils by scores of 5-1 and 5-2 the last two times he faced them at Pittsburgh. (It's possible that Fleury could be backing up veteran netminder Tomas Vokoun on Sunday. That'd be fine too, as Vokoun has been great, winning three of his four starts and posting a goals against average of just 2.09.) On the other side, NJ's backup (Hedberg) is likely to be in net. While Hedberg has admittedly been strong in limited action and is certainly capable - there's only one Martin Brodeur. The Pens have had no trouble when playing the second of back-to-back games. This will be the third time that they have been in that situation this season. They won each of the first two games by identical 6-3 scores. Going back further finds them at 22-13 (+6.8) their last 35 when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Penguins will have revenge on their minds, and with an embarrassment of riches when it comes to offensive talent, they are tough to beat at home. The Devils have lost their last two visits to Pittsburgh and they are going to struggle to avoid making that three straight on Sunday. (8* Personal Favorite) |
|||||||
02-09-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. St Louis Blues -175 | 6-5 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the St. Louis Blues. The Anaheim Ducks will be in St. Louis tonight, after losing on the road in Dallas last night. The Ducks haven't had much success in St. Louis in recent years, losing five straight against the Blues. Playing their second game in as many nights, and facing a Blues team that is looking to snap a three game losing streak could prove to be a momentous task for the Ducks.
St. Louis has struggled since losing their starting netminder Jaroslav Halak in the first period of a 5-3 loss at Detroit last Friday. Some have singled out backup goalie Brian Elliot as the man to blame for the Blues recent losing skid, but there may be more to the story. The Blues surrendered 31 shots on goal against the Red Wings last Friday, and that was the first time this season they had allowed 30 or more shots. So while Elliot has allowed 11 goals over his last three starts, the Blues have also surrendered a lot more shots in those three games than they normally do, which would suggest that the team hasn't played as well in front of their goaltender. Coach Ken Hitchcock is certainly not pleased with the effort from his players during this losing streak: "We're cheating all over the ice. We're cheating each other, we're cheating the game and we're paying the price for it," Hitchcock said. "You hope that sooner or later the players have had enough and they're willing to make the changes necessary." Hitchcock will likely light a fire under his team, having them ready to deliver another stifling defensive effort, giving Elliot an opportunity to shine between the pipes. The Blues have allowed 30 shots just once this season, and they have held opponents to fewer than 20 shots four times. I expect St. Louis to get back to playing the kind of defensive hockey that has made them so successful in the past, and snap their losing skid against the Ducks at home tonight. (6*) |
|||||||
02-09-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Montreal Canadiens -155 | 6-0 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs have lost two straight, but it certainly hasn't been due to poor play. In fact, they were probably the better team, more deserving of the win in both those losses. Their last game ended in a shootout after the Sabres completed an amazing third period comeback by tying the score with less than two seconds left on the clock.
Backup goalie Peter Budaj was in net versus the Sabres, and he gave up four goals on 40 shots. Carey Price will be back between the pipes tonight, and he's been excellent so far this season. Price has a record of 6-2 with a goals against average of just 1.74. The Canadiens have been excellent at home, with a record of 5-1 in their last six at the Bell Center. The Habs have been solid on special teams, clicking on almost 24% of their power-play chances, and ranking in the top 10 in the NHL on the penalty kill. They should have an edge against a Leafs team that has been terrible with their special teams, ranking near the bottom of the league in both areas. The Habs took three of four meetings with the Leafs in 2012, but lost to Toronto in their only meeting this year by a score of 2-1. They should execute their revenge tonight, with superior special teams play and having the better of the two netminders, I like Montreal to get the victory. (7*) |
|||||||
02-09-13 | Florida Panthers v. Washington Capitals -127 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the Washington Capitals over the Florida Panthers. There is no doubt the Capitals have struggled so far this season, as they are sitting in the Eastern Conference cellar, and the heat is on head coach Adam Oates. Washington may not be as terrible as you might think though, when you have a closer look, you will see that four of their losses came in one-goal games.
The Caps will host Florida tonight, and the Panthers aren't exactly a powerhouse in the east either. Florida is playing it's final game of a four game road trip, and the Panthers have taken two of three so far, after losing five of seven games in January. The Capitals are a desperate hockey club at the moment, badly in need of a win, and a meeting with the Panthers could be just what the doctor ordered. Washington has won five straight home meetings with Florida, out-scoring the Panthers 19-6. Alex Ovechkin has tallied five goals and four assists in those games. Florida's starting netminder Jose Theodore has really struggled, with a record of 1-5 and a 3.88 goals against average in his last seven visits to Washington. I expect the Caps to throw a lot of rubber at the net tonight, and it might be a long night for the former Capitals goalie. Washington should come with a solid effort, playing with desperation, as both coaches and players are at risk of losing their jobs unless the team can turn things around. I expect them to out-work, out-hit, and out-skate the Panthers, en route to a victory. (8*) |
|||||||
02-09-13 | CAR HURRICANES v. PHI FLYERS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Carolina versus Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The Flyers have had a rough start to the season, and injuries to several key players haven't helped. It was a crushing blow losing Scott Hartnell early in the campaign, but then just shortly after that, they lost another one of their top forwards when Wayne Simmonds became the victim of a vicious elbow courtesy of John Erskine.
Simmonds actually led the Flyers in scoring at the time, and he has since missed the last three games with a concussion. Simmonds and Hartnell scored 65 goals between them last season, and that's a lot of firepower missing from the Flyers lineup. This perhaps explains why Philly ranks near the bottom of the NHL in scoring, averaging just 2.3 goals per game. Their power-play that was the best in the NHL last season, now ranks 18th, clicking at a rate of just 18%. On a positive note, Philly has been getting great goaltending from Ilya Bryzgalov, he's posted a 2.20 goals against average along with a .923 save percentage this season. The Flyers will hope that he continues his solid play between the pipes as they get set to host Carolina this afternoon. The Canes have also been blessed with great play from their starting netminder, Cam Ward stoned the Sens his last time out, stopping 45 shots in a 3-2 win in Ottawa. He allowed just a single goal on 43 shots in his previous start, in a 4-1 win over the Leafs. Carolina will need another solid outing from Ward if they are going to be successful in Philly, as I don't expect the Flyers to give up much at home. This should be a pretty tight checking, low scoring tilt, with goals being at a premium. (*9 best bet) |
|||||||
02-07-13 | DET RED WINGS v. STL BLUES UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice already this season. Both games finished above the number. However, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.
Both teams come in off a bad defensive showing. I expect both to be motivated to improve in that area this evening. Note that the Wings have seen the UNDER go 30-23-3 the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the Blues have seen the UNDER go 23-16-6 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. Thats an UNDER records of 53-39-9. Also, keep in mind that nearly every one of those nine pushes, if not every one of them, was a game which finished with five goals. Recent meetings here at St. Louis have had an O/U line of five. While we have to pay some extra to play at 5.5, I feel that it prove well worth it. *9 best bet |
|||||||
02-07-13 | CAR HURRICANES v. OTT SENATORS -115 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OTTAWA. The Senators may still have a bitter taste in their mouth after winding up on the wrong end of a 1-0 shutout versus Carolina last Friday. I feel confident that the Sens will respond with a little added effort, as they seek to hand the Canes a little payback.
Dan Ellis was the starter for the Hurricanes in Friday's victory, however it's likely that Ellis will be the backup to Cam Ward in tonight's fixture. Ward is coming off a solid outing, stopping 41 shots, while stone-walling the Leafs in a 4-1 victory on Monday. While Ward was impressive in Monday's start, such performances have been few and far between for the 28 year old netminder this season. Ward is just 2-3 with a 3.43 goals against average on the year. The Hurricanes won't want to give up too many goals against Ottawa, as the Sens have been pretty stingy, allowing an average of just 1.8 goals against, the fewest in the NHL. Ottawa will look to exploit a complete mismatch when it comes to special teams, with a power-play unit that has converted on 27.3% chances on the year, good enough to rank 4th in the NHL. They are even more dominant when it comes to killing penalties, with the 3rd best penalty killing unit in the league. The Hurricanes aren't particularly dangerous on the power-play, clicking at a rate of just 15%. They are even worse killing penalties, as opponents have cashed in on nearly 27% of Carolina's short-handed situations. With a more consistent goaltender in Craig Anderson, and a far superior special teams units, I feel the Senators possess all the necessary tools to execute their revenge on Carolina tonight. |
|||||||
02-07-13 | FLA PANTHERS v. PHI FLYERS UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Florida versus Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The Flyers have been dealt a rough hand in the beginning of the season, losing several of their top forwards to injury. They haven't rolled over though, and they are coming off back to back impressive victories at home.
Coming into the season there were concerns in the Flyers camp that they may need to upgrade their goaltending situation. Ilya Bryzgalov has silenced his critics so far this year with brilliant play between the pipes for Philadelphia. Bryzgalov may have a losing record, but he has posted a 2.24 goals against average along with a .923 save percentage. He was only forced to make 21 saves, allowing a single goal in the Flyers 2-1 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday. It was an impressive effort by the Flyers, who shut down the highest scoring team in the league with their defense. They could use a similar effort at home tonight if they hope to get past Florida's other team. The Panthers have really picked up the defensive side of their game, after struggling mightily in their early part of this season. They only surrendered 21 shots in a losing effort against Winnipeg their last time out, and they have limited opponents to an average of just 25 shots per game over their past five contests. Florida will be fortunate that they won't have to face hulking forwards Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds, who are two of Philly's top scorers. Simmonds scored one of seven goals in a 7-1 rout over the Panthers earlier this year, but that high scoring contest was the exception rather than the norm. Before that meeting, these teams had combined to play five straight low scoring games over the past two years. With both teams focusing on improved defensive play, and Philly lacking some of their firepower, I expect to see another low scoring tilt between these two teams tonight. *8 |
|||||||
02-07-13 | NY Islanders v. NY Rangers -151 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on NYR. The Rangers have not lived up to lofty expectations so far this year, with a sub .500 record and sitting in the 11th spot in the Eastern Conference. They are one point behind the Islanders, who sit in eighth, currently owning the final playoff spot in the East.
Head Coach John Tortorella has put his team on notice, letting players know that anything less than giving 100% will result in a healthy scratch, or reduced ice time. "We have some guys on our hockey club that are really playing hard, and we have some guys that look scared and tentative," Tortorella said. "I'll tell you right now we're not waiting. We don't play careful hockey." The Rangers will look for more production from Marian Gaborik, who has failed to tally a point in any of his last four games. Gaborik has feasted on the Islanders in his career, scoring 17 goals and adding 11 assists in his last 18 starts against New York's other team. Henrik Lundqvist won't be satisfied with his start to the season, as he's posted a 2.83 goals against average so far, after finishing with a 1.97 goals against average last year. He will count on his team to start playing a more disciplined brand of hockey in front of him, which is something we are likely to see in tonight's game. The Rangers are a far too talented a team to be flirting with a spot in the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and I expect the coach to have his squad well prepared for tonight's tilt with the Islanders. The Rangers should get the monkey off their back with a more inspired performance at home, and earn a victory tonight. *9 Personal Favorite |
|||||||
02-06-13 | Dallas Stars v. Edmonton Oilers -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Stars have won two of three while the Oilers have lost three straight. I feel this one sets up nicely for the Oilers to bounce back with a win though.
True, the Oilers have dropped three straight. However, all three came on the road. Prior to that, the Oilers had won three of four, including wins in each of their last two games here at Edmonton, 4-1 vs. Colorado and 2-1 vs. LA. Prior to having won two of three, the Stars had dropped four straight. They're averaging only 1.2 goals per game away from Dallas on the season. Going 1 for 21 on the power-play on the road doesn't help matters. That doesn't bode well against an Oilers team which has surrendered just two goals its last two games. Meanwhile, the Stars continue to take a lot of penalties and they'll facing an Edmonton team which has shown an ability to convert on the power play, particularly here at Edmonton where they're clicking at a 33% rate. The Oilers are younger and arguably more talented. I expect them to also be hungrier and that to ultimately lead to them earning an important two points. *9 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-05-13 | Florida Panthers v. Winnipeg Jets -152 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. Sometimes when analyzing games, we can make things too complicated. Obvious factors like "home ice advantage" can be forgotten about, or at least skimmed over. Often, the simple answer is the right one though. In the case of the Jets, they've been a different team in Winnipeg than on the road.
While they can't buy a win away from Winnipeg and come in on a 3-game (road) losing streak, the Jets continue to play well here in Manitoba. The Jets dropped their home opener but have since won their last two home games. While the Panthers did win their last road game, like their hosts, they're typically not very good when playing away from home. One can't under-estimate the significance of the "desperation" factor either. The Jets, who haven't lost four in a row since November 2011, know how important every game is in this strike-shortened season. Note that the Jets are 5-2 (+5.1) since returning to the league, after having lost their previous three games. Coach Claude Noel commented: "Our job is to find solutions to these things, and for me, I know how our team can play and that's what we have to get back to doing." Winnipeg forward Alexei Ponikarovsky added: "We've got two choices. Choice 1 is to pout and complain and moan about taking too many penalties. The second choice is go home, improve collectively and individually. That's going to have to be our focus." Not that they should need any added motivation but the fact that they just lost at Florida should provide the Jets with even more incentive. I played on the Jets the last time that they hosted the Panthers and they rewarded me with a 7-0 victory. This one likely won't be quite that easy but I expect the end result to be the same. *9 personal favorite |
|||||||
02-05-13 | BUFF SABRES v. OTT SENATORS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. The Sabres have seen four straight games top the total. Desperate to improve the number of goals which they are allowing and matched up against a stingy Senators squad, I expect the Sabres run of "overs" to come to an end here.
I've successfully played on the Senators to finish below the total a few times already this season, including each of their last two outings. Those games, which had final scores of 2-1 and 1-0, brought the UNDER to 7-2 through Ottawa's first nine games, 3-1 when they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That brings the UNDER to 40-32 the last couple of seasons, when Ottawa played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. A closer look shows the Sens have allowed one goal or less in five of nine games and two or less in eight of nine. Even with another 'over' last time out, the Sabres have still seen the UNDER go 65-55-9 the last 100+ times that they were off three straight games that finished above the total, including an 11-8-1 UNDER mark their last 20 in that situation. Five of Buffalo's last six visits here have finished with five or fewer goals. I look for this one to do the same. *9 best bet |
|||||||
02-04-13 | MIN WILD v. PHO COYOTES -119 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Home ice has been very important to both these teams thus far. The Coyotes are 0-3-1 on the road but 3-2-1 here at Phoenix. The Wild are 4-1 at Minnesota but 0-2-1 on the road.
The Wild have a quality top line - but they haven't shown much of an ability to generate goals from their other lines. Shut down the top line, as other teams have done the past couple of games, and the Wild don't have much left. The Coyotes started slowly but are now playing well. They've generated points in four straight games and have shutout wins in two of their last three. I backed them in their last game and they outshot Dallas 34-17, en route to a 2-0 win. Goalie Mike Smith, the Coyotes' #1 netminder and a huge part of last year's success, was stellar. Coach Dave Tippett said: "He looked like Smitty out there. It's the first game I'd say he looked confident all year.'' I feel that the price is fair and I expect the Coyotes, 52-42 (+9.2) their last 94 off a shutout win, to keep on rolling for another day. *8 annihilator |
|||||||
02-03-13 | Florida Panthers v. Buffalo Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo and Florida to finish UNDER the total. After getting shellacked at Montreal yesterday, I expect a highly determined defensive effort from the Sabres this afternoon.
Note that the Sabres have seen the UNDER go 26-17-2 the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games and that the UNDER is already 2-0 when they've been in that scheduling situation this season. (Those games had scores of 2-1 and 3-1.) While the Sabres played yesterday, the Panthers had the last two day's off. That's noteworthy as we find the UNDER at 15-7-3 the last 25 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. True, the Panthers erupted for six goals against defensively-challenged Winnipeg last time out. However, keep in mind that they'd scored just five goals (2, 1, 1, 1, 0) in their previous five games combined. Yes, we do have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5. However, with each of the last four meetings in this series having finished below that mark, I believe the price is justified. *9 blue chip |
|||||||
02-03-13 | Florida Panthers v. Buffalo Sabres -155 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. The Sabres figure to be in a foul mood after getting embarrassed at Montreal yesterday. Florida should be a good opponent to take their frustrations out on.
True, the Panthers are off an impressive 6-3 win over Florida. However, lets not forget that they'd lost their previous five in a row. They were outscored by a combined score of 23-5 in those games too. Also note that the Panthers are only 14-24 (-8.1) the past couple of seasons, after scoring four or more goals. They're a dismal 126-179 (-59.4) in that situation, if one goes back further. The Panthers have yet to win a road game and have been outscored by an average margin of 4.3 to 1.1 away from Florida. The Sabres are 19-9 with a three ties the last 30 times that they were a host in the series, most recently winning 2-1. I expect them to continue that domination this afternoon. *8 personal favorite |