Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-16 | Flames v. Islanders -140 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the the NEW YORK ISLANDERS. The Isles badly need a win and this should be the perfect spot to get one. While the Isles are rested, the Flames are off a game at Philadelphia and playing their third road game in the past four days. This marks the final leg of their 6-game road trip. Having already tasted some success on the trip, it may be easy to get caught looking ahead to the return trip home to Calgary and to Wednesday's showdown vs. the Leafs. I played against the Flames earlier in their trip (at Buffalo) when they played the second of b2b games and they lost 4-2. Including that result, they're just 1-3 this season, when playing a road game after having played the previous night. (The lone win in that situation came in a home-and-home series vs. the Blues, where they were playing with recent-revenge from a loss at Calgary.) While the wins weren't there, the Isles, 16-4 the last 20 times that they played their previous three on the road, actually played well on their recent trip out west. Head coach Jack Capuano noted: "When you play your three best games of the year and come away with two points it's tough. But as resilient as you have to be with your work ethic, you have to have that with your attitude. Not everything in life happens the way you want it to happen, but if they keep playing that way, they'll get some results."Look for the Isles, who I believe to be better than their record indicates, to have the fresher legs and to be a little hungrier and for that to lead to a much-needed two points. |
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11-27-16 | Flames v. Flyers -138 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 8* PERS FAV. The home team won both meetings last season and I look for home ice to prove the difference in this one. The Flames, still playing without Goudreau, are averaging a mere 2.1 goals per game (28 shots) on the road. The Flyers fire 33 shots per game on home ice, averaging 3.2 goals here. Off b2b losses, look for the Flyers to be the hungrier team here and for them to ultimately come away with two points. |
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11-26-16 | Canucks v. Avalanche -165 | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO 8* PERS FAV. Both teams lost last time out. However, the Canucks' loss came last night, a hard-fought 2-1 loss at Dallas. Meanwhile, the Avs have enjoyed a couple of days off, after Wednesday's 6-3 loss against the Oilers. That scheduling advantage figures to work in their favor tonight. The Canucks, who will now be playing their third road gam in the past four nights, are an ugly 2-8 on the road. The Avs are a lucrative 33-21 (+18.2) the past 2+ seasons, off a loss by two more goals. Most recently, off a 2-0 loss against the Bruins, they responded with a 4-1 win over the Kings. More of the same here. |
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11-25-16 | Canucks v. Stars -170 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS 8* PERS FAV. These teams have similar records, against the moneyline. The Canucks are 8-12, while the Stars are 8-13. (Dallas is ahead in the standings, due to an 8-8-5 overall mark compared to Vancouver's 8-10-2 record.) The Stars are arguably better than their record indicates though, while the same likely cannot be said of the Canucks. Dallas was dealing with some major injuries early on and they were still a factor when these teams met at Vancouver on 11/13. The Stars, who lost that game 4-3, are getting healthier though and they'll be looking to settle the score, while also looking to bounce back from Wednesday's 5-2 loss at Nashville. They're 3-0 against the Canucks here the past couple of seasons. During that time, the Stars are also a profitable 32-18 (+14.3) off a loss by two or more goals, a situation which has long been profitable for them. With the Canucks just 2-7 away from Vancouver, the revenge-minded Stars should improve on those stats here. |
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11-25-16 | Jets v. Predators -195 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. These teams will meet again in Winnipeg on Sunday. That being the scheduling situation and given the home/road records of both teams, I fully expect the Preds to take care of buiness on home ice here. The Preds are 7-2-1 here at Nashville but only 2-8-2 on the road. Likewise, the Jets are 3-9-2 on the road but 6-4 at Winnipeg. The Preds have won five striaght here and have won those games by a combined score of 19-5, each of those five wins coming by multiple goals. Look for them to "hold serve" and keep rolling for another day. |
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11-24-16 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens -168 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MONTREAL 8* SPECIAL. The Canes are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 4-3 loss and looking to avenge last week's loss at Raleigh, the Habs are going to be in a foul mood. They're already 3-1 on the season, after allowing four or more goals. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark in games here at Montreal, wins against Pens, Flyers and Bruins. Overall, the Canadiens are 11-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by a dominating 3.5 to 1.6 margin here. Meanwhile, even off a win at Toronto, the Canes are still just 3-7 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.6. The Habs are 3-0 as a host in this series the past 2+ seasons. Payback time. |
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11-23-16 | Islanders v. Kings -177 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA 8*. The home team won both meetings last season. With the schedule in its favor, I expect the home team to have the advantage again this evening. The Isles upset the Ducks last night. However, winning on back-to-back nights in Southern California is rarely easy. Off three striaght wins, the Kings are starting to roll. They're 7-2 here at home. Even with last night's win, the Isles are just 1-5 on the road. Look for the Kings, who have had the past two nights off, to have the fresher legs tonight, improving to 21-12 the past 33 times that they were off a 3-game winning streak. |
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11-23-16 | Stars v. Predators -166 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. The Stars upset them here last month. Tonight, I expect the Preds to get some payback. Last month's result here notwithstanding, the Preds have been much better here at home than the Stars have been at home. Nashville is 6-2 here, outscoring teams by commanding 3.1 to 1.4 margin. On the other hand, the Stars are just 3-7 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 3.9 to 2.6. With the Stars allowing a whopping 2.5 more goals per game on the road than the Preds allow at home, I'm laying the wood with the revenge-minded home team. |
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11-23-16 | Flames v. Blue Jackets -174 | 2-0 | Loss | -174 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS 8*. I don't mean to keep picking on the Flames but this is another tough spot for them. Calgary is averaging only 2.1 goals per game on the road (while allowing 3.1) and thats likely not going to be enough to keep up with a Columbus team which is averaging a whopping 4.0 goals per game (while allowing 2.5) here on home ice. The Jackets, who lost last time out, have been money off a loss in recent weeks. They've followed up each of their last three losses with a victory, winning those three games by a combined score of 15-6. I expect them to bounce back again tonight. |
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11-22-16 | Hurricanes v. Maple Leafs -125 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TORONTO 8*. The Canes are on a winning streak. However, with this game being played at Toronto, I expect the Leafs to have the advantage. All of Carolina's recent wins have come at home. On the road, the Canes are an ugly 2-7, getting outscored by an average of 3.4 to 2.7. The Leafs have also had their problems on the road. However, they've been tough to beat here at Toronto. In fact, they're 7-2 here, outscoring teams by an average of 4.1 to 3.1. The Leafs last hosted the Canes last February. Toronto won 3-1. The Leafs are already 3-1 on the season after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, most recently erupting for six goals vs. Nashville. I like their chances of bouncing back with another win here. |
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11-21-16 | Flames v. Sabres -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO 10* PERS FAV. The Sabres got back on track last time out, snapping a long losing streak. Now, with some momentum on their side and the schedule in their favor, I expect them to make it two in a row. Some of you may recall that I backed the Flames when these teams faced each other back on 10/18. Calgary was winless at the time and desperately needed a victory. My play was based on them being the 'hungrier' team and the fact that the game was being played at Calgary with a former Buffalo goalie (Johnson) getting a crack at his old team. Calgary won 4-3. Tonight's game sets up much differently. If anything, it should be the Sabres who are the hungrier team. The last thing they want is another loss after finally getting the skid snapped. Meanwhile, wiinners of three of their last four, Clagary could be a little more complacent. I noted in my 10/18 writeup that the home team won both meetings last season. With the Flames off a win last night and playing their third game in the past four, I expect the home team to finish on top once again. |
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11-20-16 | Flames v. Red Wings -143 | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT 8* PERS FAV. The Wings need a victory and a date with one of the weaker teams from the Western Conference should be just what the doctor ordered. Already 4-2 against teams from the West, Detroit is now 38-24 (+9) against Western Conf. opponents, the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 4-2 win over the Flames in the most recent meeting. Note that the Wings were laying -180 for that one. While the Wings aren't scoring a ton of goals, they're still averaging more than the Flames. Calgary, which is now without Gaudreau, is managing a mere 1.6 goals over its past five games and just 2.0 per road game on the season. Look for the Wings, who average 2.9 here at home, to bounce back, improving to 12-8 their last 20, after having lost their previous three or more games in a row. |
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11-20-16 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -209 | 3-2 | Loss | -209 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON 5* BC. The Capitals are obviously pretty steep favorites here. However, I don't seem them letting this game get away and feel that the price could in fact be even higher. The Jackets, 1-8 their last nine Sunday games have an "easier" game vs. Colorado tomorrow. The Caps don't play for a few days after this, so have nothing to look forward to and can leave it all on the ice. Given that the Jackets just beat them at Columbus on 11/15, I expect them to do exactly that. The Caps, 39-18 (+12.8) their last 57 at home with an O/U line of less than 5.5, are a dominating 55-30 (+18.7) the past 2+ seasons when playing with 'revenge.' They were laying -230 the last time they hosted the Jackets. That resulted in a 4-1 win, the Caps outshooting Columbus by a commanding 40-22 margin. Payback time. |
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11-19-16 | Sharks v. Coyotes OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ and Arizona to finish OVER the total 8* SHOOTOUT. The Coyotes have been on a recent 'under' streak and thats driven the O/U line down from 5.5 to five. Thats extremely significant given that 14 of their 16 games have produced a minimum of five combined goals, seven of those finishing with exactly five. Only twice did the O/U line dip from 5.5 to five. Each of those games finished above the total, producing seven and eight combined goals. Overall, Arizona games are averaging six goals on the season. This season's earlier meeting produced five goals, a 3-2 Arizona win. That O/U line was 5.5. That game could have easily seen more goals though as more than 70 shots were fired, 41 by the Sharks. That'll generally lead to more than two goals. If we throw out the pushes, the OVER is 15-11 the last couple of seasons when the Coyotes played a home game with an O/U line of less than 5.5 and 24-20 when the Sharks played a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. While there's a reasonable chance of having to settle for another push, I believe we've got a much better chance seeing more than five goals than less. |
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11-19-16 | Sharks -167 v. Coyotes | 2-3 | Loss | -167 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ 8* ANNIHILATOR. When these teams played earlier, the Sharks fired 41 shots but only managed two goals. Arizona won 3-2. That'll have the Sharks looking for some payback tonight; they're 56-35 (+12.4) the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Coyotes are really struggling, as they've lost four straight. They'll have a better chance of getting on track against Vancouver in their next game though, as they're an ugly 20-62 (-30.5) their last 82 against teams with a winning record. While the Coyotes are a money-burning 9-23 (-14) the last 32 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of less than 5.5, during the same stretch, the Sharks are 33-22 (+11.2) when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. I'm going with the revenge-minded Sharks to close out their road trip with a win. |
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11-19-16 | Predators v. Blues -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 10* PERS FAV. While I respect the Predators, they're not as good away from Nashville and this is a tough place to play. Even with a 5-1 win at Ottawa in their last game, the Preds are still just 2-7 on the road. They've been outscored by an average of 3.8 to 2.7 in those games. While the Preds are giving up nearly four goals per game on the road, the Blues are allowing a mere 1.7 per game here at St. Louis. They've won seven of 10 here. The Preds are a money-burning 19-30 the past 2+ seasons off a win by two or more goals and an even worse 19-35 (-28.5!) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Blues, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Nashville, have taken four of the last five home meetings in this series. The're 49-35 (+7.4) when playing with 'revenge' the past 2+ seasons and I look for them to get some payback tonight. |
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11-19-16 | Devils v. Kings -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA 10* ANNIHILATOR. I like how this one sets up for the home team and feel that the price could easily be higher. I backed the Kings in their last game and they rewarded me with a 4-2 win. That victory snapped a losing streak and should provide some positive momentum. I also sucessfully played against the Devils in their last game, as they came up short against the Ducks. That loss snapped a 5-game winning streak and may be of the 'deflating' variety. Note that the Devils are just 31-51 the past 2+ seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. The Kings were laying -260 the last time (last March) that they hosted the Devils. NJ's recent win streak notwithstanding, I don't think that much has changed to warrant such a difference in price. I'm going with the Kings, again. |
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11-18-16 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. While this season's earlier meeting at Pittsburgh snuck over the total, (4-2 Pens) I'm expecting a lower-scoring contest this evening. Prior to this season's earlier meeting, three staight games between these teams had fallen below the total. Pittsburgh's last two visits here produced five combined goals and three combined goals. After giving up seven goals last time out, an embarrassing 7-1 loss to the Capitals, the Pens should be serious about improving defensively tonight. They're facing the right opponent, as the Isles aren't scoring too much these days. In fact, they've only managed three combined goals their past three games. Not surprisingly, all three finished with five or fewer combined goals. The UNDER is 27-17-6 the last 50 times that the Pens allowed four or more goals in their previous game. They last two times that they were in that situation, they limited their opponent to a single goal. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-17-16 | Oilers v. Kings -125 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA 8* ANNIHILATOR. Both teams are on losing streaks. Playing on home ice, I expect the Kings to be the team which bounces back with a win. The Oilers are an ugly 19-44 (-17.2) the past 2+ seasons, off a loss by two or more goals. During that time, they're 19-29 after losing their previous three or more games. Losing streaks haven't been nearly as common for the Kings but they tend to snap them quickly when they occur. During the same time, they're 13-3 (+9.7) after losing three or more in a row. The Kings have dominated the Oilers here and I expect that to continue for another night. |
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11-17-16 | Devils v. Ducks -152 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM 10* PERS FAV. Sure, the Devils are on a bit of a roll right now. Lets keep in mind that they're still just 3-5 on the road though and also that they just lost Taylor Hall to injury. Now, they're at a very tough venue against a team which has found its groove and which has payback on its mind. The Ducks had dominated the Devils in recent seasons, prior to a 2-1 Devils' win, at NJ, last month. While the Devils are 31-50 (-7.1) the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5, the Ducks are 38-19 (+7.4) at home with an O/U line of less than 5.5. This season, the Ducks are outscoring teams by a 3.4 to 2.1 margin at home while the Devils are getting outscored by a 2.2 to 2.0 mark on the road. The Ducks were laying -260 the last time they hosted the Devis, a 7-1 destruction last March. I feel this line could also easily be higher and expect them to finish on top once again. |
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11-17-16 | Jets v. Flyers -128 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 8* ROAST. The Jets are off a 4-0 home win over Chicago. They're not the same team on the road though. In eight road games, they've been oustscored by an average score of 3.0 to 2.4, going 3-5. Its also worth noting that they're a money-burning 31-51 (-20.2) the last 82 times that they were off a win by two or more goals, 19-30 (-10.2) the past couple of seasons. The Flyers, who are outscoring teams by a slight 3.4 to 3.3 margin here at home, have dominated the Jets in recent seasons. I expect a highly motivated effort from them tonight, as they bounce back and improve to 30-19 their last 49 home games with a total of 5.5. |
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11-15-16 | Oilers v. Ducks -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM 10* PERS FAV. I successfully played against the Ducks in their last game, a 5-0 loss at Nashville. Even at the time, however, I stated that I "respected them" and felt that they were a strong team. Rested and back home in sunny Southern California, I expect the Ducks to bounce back right away. Anaheim is 28-16 (+6.6) the past couple of seasons, afters scoring one goal or less in its previous game. During that span, the Ducks are also 24-10 (+12.2) after playing their previous three on the road, 45-23 (+12.2) against divisional opponents, 26-13 (+9.1) when playing with two day's rest and 37-19 (+6.4) when playing at home with an O/U line of less than 5.5. During the same stretch, the Oilers who have cooled off with three straight losses, are 17-35 (-11.9) after scoring one goal or less and 19-43 (-16.2) off a loss by two or more goals. The Ducks, who have dominated the Oilers in recent years, were laying -265 the last time they hosted them. They won that one 2-1, outshooting the Oilers 34-18. While today's price is obviously far more reasonable, I expect the end result to be the same. |
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11-15-16 | Sabres v. Blues -212 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 5* ANNIHILATOR. Both teams are on losing streaks but the Blues should be the team which snaps their skid tonight. For starters, the Blues are a much stronger team. They're well-coached and playing at home. Opposing teams are only scoring 1.7 goals per game here. The Blues have absolutely owned the Sabres over the years, including a 4-0 mark the past couple of seasons. While the Sabres are 10-22 (-7.5) the past 32 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, the Blues are 25-14 (+5.8) in that situation, during the same span. I'm confident that they'll improve on those stats tonight and am laying the large number. |
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11-15-16 | Senators v. Flyers -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. The Sens have the better record overall. However, I feel that the Flyers are favored for good reason. Off a win last time out, the Flyers are the team which comes in with some positive momentum. The 3-2 victory over the Wild snapped a 3-game slide. While the Flyers are scoring an impressive 3.6 goals per game on home ice, the Sens are being outscored by an average of 2.3 to 1.8 on the road. In fact, the Sens have failed to score more than two goals in six straight games now, scoring less than two in four of those. Ottawa is now 28-35 on the road, the past couple of seasons, when the O/U line was 5.5. During that span, the Flyers were 29-18 (+7.1) when playing at home, with an O/U line of 5.5. The Flyers, who have won two straight in this series, were laying -200 the last time these teams met. Philly won that won by a 3-2 margin. While tonight's price is obviously far more reasonable, I expect the end result to be the same. |
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11-14-16 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -250 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing the ISLANDERS on the puck-line 5* SPECIAL. (+1.5 goals) Obviously, we're laying a pretty steep price to get the extra +1.5 goals here. While I realize thats not everyone's cup of tea, its the way I'm personally playing it. This is a huge game for the Isles and I expect an extremely motivated effort. Not only do they need to get back on track but they've got a major score to settle with Tampa. The Lightning knocked them out of the playoffs last season and have already beaten them badly twice this season, most recently just four nights ago, at Tampa. The Lightning are a talented team. They're beatable though. Currently, they're below .500 (3-4) on the road and have just three wins in their last nine. While I like the Isles chances of winning "outright," it should be noted that they'd be 4-1 their last five games, instead of 1-4, if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each game. (Three of their last five gave have resulted in 1-goal losses.) Prior to the 11/1 game here, Tampa's three previous visits here had resulted in a pair of 1-goal wins for the Lighthing and a 5-2 win for the Isles. Look for the revenge-minded home team to rise to the occasion with at least a "cover" tonight. |
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11-13-16 | Canadiens v. Blackhawks -148 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO 8* SPECIAL. While both teams are red hot, the schedule and venue favor the Hawks. Chicago had last night off, after losing to Washington the previous day. The last time that they lost a game, the Hawks responded by reeling off seven straight victories. While the Habs were certainly impressive in last night's 5-0 win, they're expected to give their #1 goalie (Price) the night off here; Montoya isn't at the same level. (With last night's win, Price is now 10-0.) Also, they're just 6-9 (-5.7) the last 15 times that they were off a shutout win. The Hawks have dominated the Habs in recent seasons, most recently sweeping a home-and-home series back in January. They were laying more than -200 for that home game (a 5-2 win) and given the schedule and the fact that Price is likely out, I feel this line could also easily be higher. |
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11-13-16 | Bruins v. Avalanche -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO 10* PERS FAV. The Bruins won again last night, as they continue to roll with Rask between the pipes. However, playing the second leg of a b2b situation, we may well see McIntyre. He's 0-2 with an GAA above four. Either way, I expect the Avs to have the edge. Already 0-2 in that situation this season, the Bruins are an ugly 10-19 (-9.6) the past 2+ seasons when playing the second of b2b games. During that stretch, they're an even worse 24-35 (-19.9) against Western Conf. teams. The Avs got back on track with a win last time out. I look for them to carry the positive momemtum into tonight's game, taking advantage of the favorable schedule en route to earning an important two points. |
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11-12-16 | Ducks v. Predators -129 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE 10* PERS FAV. I respect the Ducks but I believe this will be a case of being at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back victories, the Predators have gotten on track and are on their first "winning streak" of the season. Each win came by a 3-1 score, making it five straight games that they've allowed three or fewer goals. They've earned at least a point in all five of those games, Rinne playing superbly in goal. Nashville coach Peter Laviolette noted this of his team "For me, there's been a lot of good signs the last couple of games" and this of his goalie: "Pekka in the last four or five games has been excellent." The Preds haven't forgotten that the Ducks handed them their worst loss of the season, a 6-1 beatdown at Anaheim on 10/26. In addition to the revenge factor from this season, these teams have a bit of a rivalry going, as they met in the playoffs last year. This is the Preds' only chance to face the Ducks on home ice and I look for them to make the most of it. |
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11-11-16 | Jets v. Avalanche -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO 10* GOW. The Avs badly need a victory and this should be an excellent spot to get one. While Colorado had the past two nights off, the Jets are off a hard-fought 3-2 win at Arizona last night. If you watched that game, you'd have seen that the Jets were sloppy out of the gate and were arguably fortunate to come away with the two points. A similar effort vs. a determined Colorado team figures to prove costly. Though they've won a couple times in that spot this season, its still worth noting that the Jets remain an ugly 14-32 the last 46 times that they played the second of b2b games. On the other hand, the Avs, who will be looking to avenge an earlier 1-0 loss here, are still a profitable 31-21 (+16.1) the past 2+ seasons, off a loss by two or more goals. A look at the boxscore of that 10/16 game reveals that the Avs held a 37-21 edge in shots. With the schedule in their favor, its payback time tonight. |
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11-10-16 | Canucks v. Red Wings -191 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT 5* BEATDOWN. Both teams snapped a losing streak in their last game. I expect the Wings to be the team which follows it up with another victory this evening. A fast start by the Canucks temporarily masked the fact that this team has some issues. The Wings are outscoring teams by an average score of 2.9 to 2.4 on home ice. On the other hand, the Canucks are being outscored by an ugly 3.6 to 2.1 margin on the road and 2.9 to 1.9 overall. The Wings are 37-24 against Western Conf. teams the past 2+ seasons. They're playing better hockey right now and I look for them to come away with the two points tonight. |
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11-10-16 | Wild v. Penguins -163 | 4-2 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 8* PERS FAV. While the Pens are still fairly heavy favorites, I believe that this price could easily be considerably higher. The Pens are rolling right now and showing no signs of slowing down. Often, in recent seasons, they've dealt with injuries to Crosby and/or Malkin. However, when the two stars are both healthy, as they are now, this team is tough to beat. Crosby was held without a point last time out (first time all season!) Malkin stepped in and picked up the slack, scoring his fifth goal in the past six games. Its no coincidence that the Pens are 6-0-1 their past seven. They're also 6-0-1 at home on the season. On the other hand, the Wild have just two wins in six road games. The Wild haven't been playing much these days. They played one game on 11/1, a loss. Next, they didn't play until 11/5, another loss. Now, its 11/10 and they're finally playing their third game in November. Don't expect them to be helped by the extra rest though, as they're only 9-14 (-8.8) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with three or more day's off in between games, including a 1-0 shuout loss last time out. The Wild know all about Crosby and Malkin, as each has averaged better than a point per game against them for their careers. Look for the Pens keep on rolling for another day. |
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11-08-16 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -166 | 4-2 | Loss | -166 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO 8*. Both teams lost 5-1 their last time out. Both were on the road, both at a tough venue. Playing at home, I expect the Avs to be the team which bounces back tonight. One of the biggest differences between these teams the past couple of seasons has been their character when dealing with adversity, their ability to bounce back off a bad loss. The Coyotes have struggled in that department, the Avs have thrived. Over the past 2+ seasons, Arizona is 24-48 (-17.2) after allowing four or more goals, 26-44 (-7) when coming off a loss by two more goals and 21-33 (-5) after scoring one or less. During the same period, the Avs are 31-20 (+17.6) after a loss by two or more golas and 26-14 (+18.8) after scoring one or less. The Avs already beat the Coyotes at Phoenix. With the Coyotes already 1-6 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 4.6 to 2.7, and also 8-34 (-22) their last 42 when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss, I'm backing the Avs. |
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11-08-16 | Senators v. Predators -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE 8*. Off back-to-back losses, I expect the Predators to be extremely hungry tonight. Their most recent loss was the first game back from a road trip, which can sometimes be a tough spot. They've got no excuses tonight though and I expect them to bounce back against an Ottawa team which they've handled here in recent seasons. The Preds are outscoring teams by a 2.7 to 2.0 margin at home while the Sens are getting outscored by a 2.5 to 2.0 margin on the road. While they've been winning, the Sens have scored two goals or less in five straight games and three or less in seven straight. It caught up with them last game, a 2-1 loss vs. Buffalo, and I expect more of the same tonight. |
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11-08-16 | Oilers v. Penguins -171 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 8*. Clearly, the Oilers are a much improved team. That said, I don't think that they're ready to win on the road against a well-rested Penguins team which is off a 5-0 win at SJ and which is also playing great hockey in its own building right now. The Pens are 5-1 in six games here, outscoring teams by a 3.3 to 2.3 margin. The Oilers are still just 26-58 (-20.2) their last 84 against teams with a winning record. During that stretch, they're also an ugly 16-41 (-15.4) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Look for the Pens to keep rolling for another day, improving to 60-44 (+10.8) their last 100+ after shutting out their previous opponent. |
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11-06-16 | Flames v. Ducks -199 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM 5* SMASH. The Ducks have absolutely dominated the Flames here over the years. With the schedule in their favor, there's little reason to think that won't continue here. The Flames are off a 5-0 loss at LA last night and playing their third road game in the past four days and fourth in November. The Ducks are 44-23 (+11.2) against divisional opponents the past 2+ seasons. Look for them to continue their domination of the Flames here, moving to 45-25 (+11.8) their last 70 off a game in which they scored four or more goals. |
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11-05-16 | Hurricanes v. Predators -164 | 3-2 | Loss | -164 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE 8*. Both these teams have had to play a large number of road games to start the season. Neither has enjoyed it. The Predators are 1-6 (1-6-2) on the road. Likewise, for the the Canes, who are also 1-6 (1-6-3). The Preds are the team that gets to play on home ice tonight though and that figures to be significant. Nasvhille is 2-1 in games here, outscoring teams by an average score of 3.0 to 1.7. The Preds have dominated the Canes here for years, going 9-2 the last 11 meetings here. While the Canes are well-rested, that doesn't generally help them. They're only 5-11 (-6) the past 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest, a dismal 58-87 (-34.4) in that situation over the years. Preds win. |
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11-05-16 | Devils v. Lightning -170 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA 8*. Catching them playing the fourth leg of a 6-game trip, the Devils beat the Lightning at New Jersey on 10/29. With tonight's rematch being played at Tampa, where the Lightning already beat the Devils a couple of weeks earlier, I expect the revenge-minded Lightning to return the favor. With an O/U line of just five, note that NJ, still winless on the road this season, is an awful 28-49 (-9.7) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. With TB at 37-15 (+20.6) during the same period, after allowing four or more goals, I'm going with the Lightning. |
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11-05-16 | Oilers v. Islanders -127 | 4-3 | Loss | -127 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK 8*. Both teams will be looking to get back on track here. Playing on home ice, I expect the Isles to have the edge. The home team won both meetings last season. The Oilers won 3-1 at Edmonton but the Isles hammered them by an 8-1 score in the game here on Long Island. Going back further finds the Isles at 10-2-1 the last 13 meetings here. The Oilers have been pretty stingy, for the most part. They gave up five goals last time though, which isn't a good sign for them. They're 25-48 the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals. During that span, they're also 18-43 (-17.3) off a loss by two or more goals. The Isles are already off to a 3-1 start against teams from the West; they're now 36-24 (+8) their last 60 non-conference contests. Lastly, note that the Isles were laying -175 when they hosted the Oilers last season. This evening's line is considerably lower and I believe thats providing us with very fair value. |
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11-04-16 | Coyotes v. Ducks -205 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM 5* BM BEATDOWN. The Ducks are obviously pretty expensive here. However, I believe that the price could easily be even higher. The Coyotes beat Nashville last night. This will be their third tough opponent in the first four days of November though, a difficult stretch indeed. The Coyotes have been fortunate to play their last three at home. Prior to that, they'd been on a 6-game road trip which saw them win only once. They're giving up an average of 4.5 goals per game on the road this season. Speaking of poor defense, note that Anaheim has scored 10 combined goals against the Coyotes the past two times that the teams faced each other. The Ducks beat them 5-2 the last meeting and 5-1 the last time that the teams faced each other here at Anaheim. The Coyotes are just 10-19 the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. During that time, they're also an ugly 8-20 (-8.8) after having played their previous three at home and 18-44 (-17.1) when playing on the road with an O/U line of 5.5. The Ducks, 43-23 their L66 divisional games, are 54-31 (+4.4) against teams with a losing record. They're going to be hungry tonight and I expect them to take care of business. |
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11-04-16 | Jets v. Red Wings -167 | 5-3 | Loss | -167 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT 8* SMASH. Both teams will be hungry to snap their 3-game losing streaks. However, the situation favors the Wings. Winnipeg, never as good on the road, is off an OT loss against Washington last night. They really "left it all on the ice" in that one, as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to get to OT. The fact that they were rewarded with a point may make the loss a little easier to take - but it won't help their tired legs tonight. Even with a win at Colorado last week, the Jets are still an ugly 13-32 the last 45 times that they played the second of b2b games. Last night's loss dropped the Jets to 31-39 (-11.5) their last 70 non-conf. games. On the other hand, Detroit is 37-22 (+11.4) against teams from the West. During that time, the Wings are also 10-6 (+2.7) off three or more consecutive losses and 32-22 (+7) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. They beat the Jets here last season and I fully expect them do so again tonight. |
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11-03-16 | Devils v. Panthers -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Panthers played well last game, outplaying the Bruins, but ran into a hot goalie. That'll happen sometimes. However, a similar effort should be enough to take care of New Jersey. The Panthers already beat the Devils here a few weeks ago, outshooting them 24-14 en route to a 2-1 win. That marked their third straight win against NJ, dating back to last season. Including that result, the Panthers are 3-2 at home, ouscoring teams by an average of 2.8 to 2.0. Meanwhile, the Devils are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 2.3 to 1.3. The Devils are getting outshot by an average of 34.7 to 29 on the road. The Panthers are outshooting teams by an average of 34.4 to 25.8 here at Florida. With the Devils now 28-48 their last 76 road games with an O/U line of less than 5.5, I'm backing the Panthers. |
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11-03-16 | Bruins v. Lightning -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA 8*. The Lightning snapped a 3-game skid in a big way last time out, earning a 6-1 win over the Islanders. I expect them to build positive momentum from that game and follow it up with another victory tonight. The Bruins are playing the final leg of a road trip here. Over the past couple of seasons, they're a mediocre 88-85 overall. However, if we look only at their record against winning teams, they're just 35-45, good for -15.3 net units vs. the moneyline. Already 4-1 against division opponents, the Lightning are now 52-31 (+8.2) against divisional opponents the past 2+ seasons. I like their chances of improving on those stats tonight. |
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11-03-16 | Flyers v. Islanders -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS 8*. Off a 6-1 loss in their last game, the Isles figure to be in a foul mood tonight. Note that they're 32-22 (+8) the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, they're also 27-17 (+6.9) after a loss by two or more goals. While the Isles had last night off, the Flyers were busy battling the Red Wings. Even with a recent win at Carolina in that situation, the Flyers are still only 13-20 (-5.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. During that stretch, the Flyers are also a dismal 9-37 (-25.8) when playing on the road when the O/U line was 5.5. With the schedule and venue in their favor, I'm back the Isles. |
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11-02-16 | Canucks +1.5 v. Canadiens | 0-3 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing VANCOUVER on the PUCK-LINE 8* (+1.5 goals) With the Canadiens on a winning streak and the Canucks going the other way, Montreal is heavily favored on the moneyline. Thats allowed us to get the Canucks at a very reasonable price, given the immense value of an extra +1.5 goals, on the puck-line. While the Habs have been rolling, they're not "blowing teams out." Their last win was by a 2-1 score, their second 1-goal win in their last three. None of their last five wins have come by more than two goals. Speaking of close games, last season's lone meeting was a 1-goal game here last November. The Canucks were laying -210 on the (+1.5) puck-line for that one. I believe tonight's significantly lower price is proving value and I'm expecting another close game. |
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11-01-16 | Bruins v. Panthers -128 | 2-1 | Loss | -128 | 32 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. Both these teams won at Detroit in their last game. The Bruins did so on Saturday, the Panthers on Sunday. While Rask and co. have admittedly had some past success against the Panthers. However, I believe that the Panthers are playing a little better right now and I look for home ice to prove significant. Though both teams have four overall wins, the Panthers are outscoring teams by an average score of 2.8 to 2.6 while the Bruins are being outscored by an average of 2.9 to 2.2. Prior to their win at Detroit, the Bruins were on a 3-game slide which saw them get outscored by a combined 14-4 margin. The Panthers are 3-1 at home ice, the lone loss coming against a strong Washington team. I look for them to continue their strong play here for another night. |
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10-30-16 | Kings v. Blackhawks -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I played against the Kings last night. Off that hard-fought 1-0 loss at St. Louis, I'm going against them again here. Home ice has been significant in this series, the home team winning all three again last season. With the Kings a money-burning 18-21 (-14.7) the past couple of seasons, off a game where they scored one or less, I look for home ice to again prove the difference on Sunday. |
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10-30-16 | Maple Leafs v. Islanders -170 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK 8* PERS FAV. Off back-to-back losses, the Isles are going to be hungry here. They're well-rested and catching the Leafs off an Original Six rivalry game last night. The Leafs are just 12-23 the last 35 times that they played the second of b2b games. During that stretch, they're also just 16-41 (-20.5) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The Isles, 31-22 their last 53 off a game where they allowed four or more goals, are 50-34 their last 84 against teams with a losing record and I look for them to take care of business here. |
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10-29-16 | Stars v. Wild -145 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 8* BLOWOUT. Longtime hockey fans in Minnesota don't like Dallas. Many years ago, the old Minnesota North Stars moved to Dallas, leaving Minnesota without a team. They eventually got the Wild but some of them never forgot. Now, they've got a new reason to hate the Stars. That's because Dallas knocked them out of the playoffs last April. This should be a great time to get a small measure of revenge. Off back-to-back dominating (4-0 and 5-0) victories, the Wild are playing very well. They're catching the Stars off a 4-1 loss, their third in four games and dealing with a number of injuries on the forward line. Look for the revenge-minded Wild to continue their strong play for another night, improving to 13-6 ther last 19, when off a shutout victory. |
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10-29-16 | Kings v. Blues -138 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 8* ANNIHILATOR. The Blues are already 2-0 against the Kings in 2016, a pair of 2-1 victories back in January and February of last season. They're going to be extremely motivated to get back on track tonight, potentially a little hungrier than the Kings, who have won four straight. Like the Kings, the Blues, who are allowing 2.5 goals per game at home thus far, have long been stingy defensively. That's led to an O/U line of five (laying juice on the over) instead of 5.5. LA often doesn't fare well on the road against other defensive-minded teams though, as the Kings are only 32-44 (-21.1) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. That includes an 0-2 mark this season, losses at SJ and Minnesota. (Their other road game had a higher total and the Kings won that one.) Look for the Blues to bounce back. |
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10-28-16 | Jets v. Avalanche -144 | 1-0 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. While the Avs are very well-rested, the Jets are playing the second of back-to-back games and also their third in four nights. While the Avs won their only home game, Winnipeg has yet to win on the road. The Avs have won three of their last four against the Jets here. Look for them to have the fresher legs tonight, moving to a lucrative 31-18 the last 49 times that they were off a loss by two or more goals. |
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10-27-16 | Red Wings v. Blues -155 | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 8* PERSONAL FAVORITE. Having won five straight, the Wings come in as the hotter team. I expect the Blues, who should be a little extra hungry off a 4-1 loss to Calgary and after getting "read the riot act" by Coach Hitchcock, to cool them off tonight though. Even with their 4-2 victory over Carolina last time out, the Wings are still just 7-12 (-9.3) the last 19 times that they'd won their previous three (or more) in a row. During that stretch, they're also a mediocre 25-25 (-6.3) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Over that same period, the Blues are 29-20 (+4.8) after allowing four or more goals. While they've been winning the close ones so far this season, the Wings have still been a little sloppy in their own end - and they're still giving up 3.7 goals per game (while scoring only 2.3) when playing on the road. That figures to catch up with them a lot more in a road game agianst the Blues than it did in a home game against Carolina. The Wings have actually won four in a row here, the last two in OT. Enough is enough. Blues bounce back with a highly motivated effort and get some payback. |
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10-26-16 | Capitals -135 v. Oilers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the Oilers in the opener, noting that they were an exciting young team with some talent. I successfully backed them again six nights later, when they beat Carolina. So, I'm not entirely surprised by their fast (5-1) start to the season. A look at the Oilers' schedule reveals that they've been fortunate to face a number of weak/mediocre teams. They've played six games, facing five different opponents. Three of those games came against teams that are currently in last place in their respective divisions. Five of the six games came against teams which are below .500. Arguably, their only "quality opponent" was St. Louis. Give them some credit for that win. However, keep in mind that they're still a dismal 24-56 (-20.2) their last 80 against teams with a winning record. Now, the Oilers, who are just 1-4 the last five times they were off a shutout win, step up in class, as the Caps are right there among the best teams in the league. Having been involved in the "Heritage Classic" on the weekend, its possible the Oilers could be a little flat. Either way, they're in for a tough game. The Caps, who get the next couple of nights off, come in well-rested and off a 4-2 loss. That should make them particularly dangerous. They already bounced back from their only loss this season and they're an oustanding 20-7 (+11) the past couple of seasons, off a loss by two or more goals. The Caps won both meetings last season, a 1-0 win at Washington and a 7-4 victory here at Edmonton. That wasn't nearly as favorable a situation for them either, as they were playing their third game in the past four. After the game here last season, Edmonton coach Todd McLellan noted: "They’re a very talented team. Obviously, they took advantage of a team that was sloppy in a lot of areas and when you have the skill and the talent like that, your opposition isn't performing at even a close enough level they are going to eventually score and they didn't need many opportunities. They had more ... " Oilers defenceman Eric Gryba added: "We weren’t ready to play and we made it pretty easy on them. When you're playing against the best players in the world and you give them easy nights they're going to look good and they're going to play good. It was far too easy a game for them ... " While the Oilers are better this season, I don't think they're ready to beat the Caps. Not tonight, at least. |
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10-25-16 | Ducks v. Sharks -150 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ 8* PERSONAL FAVORITE. I won with the Ducks on Sunday. While I didn't love the fact that they were playing their first game back home, after an Eastern road trip, I felt that any potential negative effects from the trip would be negated by the energy in the buidling due to it being the home opener. I also liked that the Ducks were catching the Canucks in a difficult scheduling spot. Things set up differently on Tuesday. This time, the Ducks will be stepping up in class (SJ better than Vancouver) while doing so on the road. Those potential negative effects from the last week's trip could still rear their ugly head. Meanwhile, off b2b losses, the Sharks will be very hungry to get back in the win column. Look for the Sharks, who have taken three of the last four meetings here at SJ against the Ducks, to bounce back, improving to 31-19 the last 50 times they were off a loss by more than a goal and 28-14 the last 42 times that they played with two day's rest. |
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10-25-16 | Jets v. Stars -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS 8* SPECIAL. I've backed the Jets in both their victories this season. Both those Jet wins came at Winnipeg though. Both were against relatively weak and/or young teams, the Canes and the Leafs. In each case, the Jets needed a desperate rally/comeback to win. The Jets have lost every other game, including their lone one on the road. I successfully played against them in that one and I'm going against them here. Off back-to-back losses and after getting blanked 3-0 last time out, the Stars should be extra hungry here. The Stars, who are a superb 17-7 (+12.3) their last 24 after scoring one goal or less, know they need to take care of business tonight and "hold serve" at home, as they'll face these same Jets at Winnipeg on Thursday. They're 29-16 their last 45 after a loss by two or more goals. During that stretch, they're also 26-12 when playing with two day's rest. They were laying -200 the last time they hosted the Jets and I believe this line could also easily be higher. |
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10-25-16 | Flames v. Blues -200 | 4-1 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 6* BIG JUICE BEATDOWN. These teams just played in Calgary on 10/22, the Blues winning 6-4. While the Flames would obviously love to avenge that loss, the Blues have a major scheduling advantage. While St. Louis hasn't played since the game at Calgary, the Flames are off a rare road win last night, upsetting the Blackhawks. That means they'll be playing their third game in the past four here. It'll also be their 7th game in 11 days, which is a pretty tough stretch, when also factoring in considerable travel. The Flames are already 0-1 when playing the second of b2b games though and they'll be taking on a well-rested, well-coached and determined St. Louis team, one which has dominated them in recent seasons. The Blues are 17-6 their last 23 home games with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, they're 25-11 (+10.2) when playing with two day's rest. Back-to-back losses, prior to the win at Calgary, should ensure there's no complacency. The Blues are now 6-1 against the Flames the past few seasons and that includes a 3-0 mark here at home. With the schedule in its favor, the superior team wins again. |
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10-23-16 | Canucks v. Ducks -190 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM 8* BLOWOUT SPECIAL. While the price is admittedly a little on the steep side, this game sets up very nicely for the Ducks. Thus far, the Canucks are over-achieving while the Ducks are under-achieving. Combine that with the fact that the Ducks are playing their home opener AND that they have the schedule significantly in their favor, and I expect the Ducks to be the "hungrier" team tonight. The Canucks are off to a great start. However, they lost in a shootout last night, a hard-fought affair at LA. This will be their third game in the past four nights and their sixth game in the past nine. That's a pretty grueling schedule right out of the gate and I expect it to catch up to them against a talented, well-rested and hungry opponent. The Ducks, 41-22 (+9.2) against divisional opponents the past couple of seasons, are also 23-10 (11.2) the last couple of seasons, after playing their previous three on the road. During that stretch, they were 35-17 (+7.2) at home, with an O/U line of less than 5.5. As for the steep price, keep in mind that the Ducks were laying -320 the last time they hosted the Canucks - and they didn't have the scheduling advantage they do tonight. Fans go home happy tonight. |
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10-22-16 | Canucks v. Kings -155 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA 8* PERSONAL FAVORITE. Starving for a winner, fans in Vancouver are getting pretty excited about the Canucks' 4-0 start. Local radio stations are already talking playoffs. Its far too early to be getting excited yet though. This team was still projected to finish at or near the league's basement with a projected O/U win total of only 33.5 games. Note that even with a win last time out, they're still just 2-7 (-7.1) the last nine times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. After dropping their first three games, the Kings got on track last time out. They'll bring some positive momentum into tonight's game and will be hungry for their first home win. Looking at the last two times that the Kings hosted the Canucks and we find that they were laying -275 and -210, respectively. (They won those games by a combined score of 7-2.) I don't think that much has changed and believe tonight's much more reasonable line is providing us with excellent value. |
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10-22-16 | Hurricanes v. Flyers -134 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 8* ANNIHILATOR. Off three consecutive losses, the Flyers should be extremely hungry tonight. I believe they're catching Carolina at the right time. The Canes earned a much-needed victory last time out. However, they're still far from an elite team. Note that they're just 13-22 (-8.6) the last 35 times that they scored four or more goals in their previous game. Playing the fifth leg of a 6-game trip which took them all through Western Canada, they may be getting a little road-weary. Also, note that even with a victory last time out, the Canes are just 8-15 (-4.8) the last couple of seasons, after playing their previous three (or more) games on the road. The Flyers took three of four meetings from the Canes last season, including both here at Philadelphia. They've dominated them for longer than that too. I expect more of the same tonight. |
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10-21-16 | Predators v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit and Nashville to finish UNDER the total 10* TOTAL OF WEEK. I successfully played on the Wings to finish below the total in their last game, a 2-1 win over the Rangers. They've now seen two of their three finish with five or fewer combined goals. The Preds are also off a 2-1 game, a loss vs. Dallas. Two of their three games overall have produced five or less. Thirteen of the last 15 meetings between these teams have had had an O/U line of five. While we do have to lay some extra juice to play at 'under' 5.5 for this one, I feel it'll be worth it. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Wings have seen the UNDER go 19-11 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that same stretch, the Preds have seen the UNDER go 20-11 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That's a combined 39-22 (64%) mark, more than enough to justify the extra cost. Thirteen of the last 19 meetings between these teams have produced five or fewer combined goals. More of the same Friday. |
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10-20-16 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 8* ANNIHILATOR. The Wild have dominated the Leafs over the years and they should have the edge again tonight. The Leafs are off a hard-fought and potentially deflating loss last night; they took a 4-1 lead into the third period only to give up the tying goal in the final minute and then to lose in OT. They're only 12-22 (-4.8) the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games, and last night's figures to take more of a toll than some others probably did. While the price may initially seem a little steep, consider that the Wild were laying -235 the last time these teams faced each other - and that was at Toronto. They were -240 the last meeting here at Minnesota. The Wild won both those games, limiting the Leafs to a single goal in the two games combined. Knowing the hit the road for awhile after this, the Wild will be hungry to take care of business. They're already 2-0 here, scoring 10 goals in the process. They'll be licking their chops the prospect of facing a Toronto team which has allowed 10 goals in losing its two road games. With the Leafs now at 13-44 (-25) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, I'm laying the wood with the rested home team. |
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10-19-16 | Red Wings v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Detroit and NY to finish UNDER the total 8* O/U BEST BET. While its important to learn from a team's first few games, I believe that its also important not to over-react to them. In this case, I believe the first few games of these teams have helped to create value with the total. As both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games out of the gate, we're getting an O/U line of 5.5, instead of five. That may not sound like much but the difference is indeed significant. Three previous 2016 meetings between these teams (all last season) all had O/U lines of five. Two of those games produced exactly five goals, a 3-2 Detroit win in March and a 3-2 NY win in April. The other resulted in a 1-0 final. So, while the 'under' was 1-0-2 in those games, it would have been 3-0 if those O/U lines had been 5.5 instead of five. Going back further reveals that the UNDER is 8-1-3 the last 12 meetings between these teams but that it would have been 11-1 if all the totals had been set it 5.5. Eight of the past 10 meetings had totals of five. In fact, only four games between these teams, since 2009 had totals of 5.5. All four of those games finished below the total. The UNDER is also 18-12 the past 30 times that the Wings played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5 overall and I expect those stats to improve Wednesday night. |
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10-19-16 | Maple Leafs v. Jets -125 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The last time that the Jets hosted the Leafs they were laying -170. (They won 6-1.) Tonight's line is far more reasonable and I feel thats providing us with very fair value on what should be a determined home team. With their new rookie star having scored four goals in his first game and their team following it up with a win over Boston, Leaf fans are certainly feeling excited these days. Lets not forget that this team is still 13-43 (-24) the past 2+ seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, they were also just 5-10 (-3.9) when playing with three or more day's rest. The Jets are a respectable 34-31 (+7.3) the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort, en route to an important two points. |
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10-18-16 | Sabres v. Flames -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALGARY 8*. Winless (0-2-1) through their first three games, the Flames figure to be extremely hungry tonight. Captain Mark Giordano had this to say: “We have to find a way this week to play desperate ... " I expect their very best effort. Calgary "backup" goalie Chad Johnson is expected to get the call between the pipes. With a big game and a victory tonight, however, he might not be the backup for long. Johhnson, who made 45 appearances for the Sabres last season, figures to be highly motivated. A chance to win over his new teammates and fans while sticking it to his old team at the same time. Note that he was 22-16-1 with a 2.36 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage last season, excellent numbers considering that the Sabres didn't even make the playoffs. The home team won both meetings last season. Look for the Flames to bounce back with their best effort, improving to 26-19 (+9.4) their last 45, after scoring less than two goals in their previous game. |
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10-18-16 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -139 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. While the Oilers get to play their first five games in their home province of Alberta, the Canes play their first six on the road, the first four of those thousands of miles away from home in Western Canada. From a betting perspective, Edmonton is 2-1 while Carolina is 0-2. However, as the Canes have gotten points in each game (they're 0-0-2 in the standings) they may not be quite as "desperate" as an 0-2 team often is. Rather, losing their first two games after regulation, each time after having an early 3-0 lead, may have a deflating effect. Either way, the Canes are likely in for a tough year. The Oilers have much to be excited about. They've got a fancy new rink, a talented young superstar for a captain and "The Great One" is back in town. By the way, Gretzky just had this to say about McDavid yesterday: "...I don’t think there's any question that Connor's the best 19-year-old hockey player I've ever seen and I saw Mark Messier, I saw Lemieux, I saw Lafleur." As of this writing, Talbot (expecting twins to be born tomorrow) is expected to get the start. He's 3-0 with a 0.64 ERA and two shutouts vs. the Canes. Look for the Oilers to bounce back with a win. |
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10-18-16 | Ducks -111 v. Devils | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. Obviously, the Devils are going to want to win their home opener. However, I don't expect them to be any more "desperate" than the Ducks, who are off to an 0-3 start. While expectations are relatively low in NJ, the Ducks are a "big money team" and they're expected to win. (Anaheim was projected to win 43.5 games entering the season, compared to NJ's 36.5.) Getzlaf and Perry are an extremely dangerous duo and are likely to give the Devils real trouble. Getzlaf and co have dominated the league's weaker teams, going 51-29 their last 80 against teams with a sub 500 record. They beat the Devils by a combined score of 9-2 in winning last season's two games and I look for them to find a way to finish on top again tonight, moving to 9-3 the last 12 times that they were off three or more consec. losses. |
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10-18-16 | Avalanche v. Capitals -215 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Caps are heavily favored for good reason here. Not only are they an elite team which is well rested, but they're also catching the Avs off a hard-fought win last night and playing their third game in the past four nights. Note that the Avs were 9-13 the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. During that stretch, they were also a money-burning 16-27 (-11.4) after having scored four or more goals in their previous game. The Caps won last season's two meetings by a combined 11-5 score. With the schedule in their favor, we should be able to expect more of the same tonight. |
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10-17-16 | Senators v. Red Wings -133 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. Off to an 0-2 start, the Wings badly need a victory. At 2-0, the Sens may not be quite as desperate. Note that neither Ottawa win has come in regulation and that the Sens are giving up 3.5 goals per game. They've been fortunate to play both their games at home, each of them coming against teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. The Sens also haven't scored a powerplay goal yet. Off their 4-3 victory, note that the Sens are just 21-28 (-7.5) the past couple of seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, Detroit was 31-21 (+7) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The Wings, who were 3-1-1 against the Sens last season, will be playing their home opener. The Wings had a strong exhibition campaign. The last thing they want is to start 0-3. I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to two points. |
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10-15-16 | Flyers v. Coyotes -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Coyotes are "rebranding" again this year. This season's schtick is that they're apologizing for all their previous tacky gimmicks to attract fans over the years. Give them credit for trying. It can't be easy to sell hockey in the desert. No amount of marketing will beat a winning product on the ice and tonight sets up well for the Coyotes to start the season off with a win. The Flyers, who are off a hard-fought win at LA last night, are just 11-19 (-6.6) their last 30, when playing the second of b2b games. During that stretch, the Flyers are also a dismal 8-36 (-26) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Coyotes have beaten the Flyers here each of the last two seasons, including a 2-1 win (as a +115 dog) back in March. Look for them to send the fans home happy once again. |
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10-15-16 | Devils v. Lightning -177 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB 6*. I watched their game against the Wings and the Lightning confirmed what I/we already knew - they're a very good team. They fell behind early (and more than once) in that game, despite playing well, partly as they were having trouble beating a goalie that was playing well. There was no panic though. They just kept playing their game and ultimately wore down a determined Detroit team, winning by a 6-4 margin. This is the same team - only healthier - that advanced to the Eastern Finals last year. Everybody's back and they're on a mission to take the next step this year. While the Lightning were projected to win 49.5 games coming into the season, the Devils were projected to win just 36.5. The Lightning have outscored them by a combined 11-3 margin in beating the Devils in the most recent three meetings. I expect another win for the superior team, the Lightning improving to 35-15 their last 50, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. |
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10-15-16 | Jets v. Wild -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 8*. The Jets came through for me nicely in their first game, rallying from a big deficit to beat Carolina in OT. That was their home opener though and they were facing lowly Carolina. They're stepping up in class considerably though, while also venturing out on the road. While the Canes were projected to win 35.5 games this season, the Wild were projected to win 42.5. While the Wild dropped their first game, that was at St. Louis. Just as the Jets were, they'll be fired up to win their home opener. With the Jets just 19-31 the last 50 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5, look for the Wild to bounce back. |
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10-14-16 | Oilers v. Flames -125 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALGARY 8* PERSONAL FAVORITE. As many of you are aware, I backed the Oilers when these teams faced each other Wednesday. That was "Opening Night" at Edmonton's new rink and there were plenty of reasons for the Oilers to be "extra pysched." While every game in the "Battle of Alberta" is a big one for both teams, the Flames should be the team which is a little hungrier for tonight's rematch. Not only are they looking to avenge Wednesday's loss, but now its their home opener. Off a disappointing season, the absolute last thing in the world they want/need is to start off 0-2, losing a pair of games against their hated provincial rival. Even with Wednesday's win, the Oilers are still 14-45 (-27.3) in divisional play, the past 2+ years. During the same stretch, the Flames are 37-33 (+7.6) in divisional play. While the Oilers are 8-18 (-8.2) the past 2+ seasons, off a win by two or more goals, the Flames are 28-21 (+10.6) off a loss by two or more. Calgary bounces back. |
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10-13-16 | Hurricanes v. Jets -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. While the Canes won both meetings last season, the Jets figure to be the stronger team this year. Carolina is projected to win just 35.5 games on the season. With a regular season O/U line of 40.5, the Jets are expected to be considerably better. The Jets scored 2.7 goals per game here at home last season, compared to the Canes' 2.2 gpg on the road. Both teams played seven exhibition games. The Canes scored 13 goals, alllowing 14. The Jets scored an extra goal per game, as they managed 20 goals, while allowing 17. Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice was fired (twice) by the Canes. Beating his former team on opening night should be extra sweet. |
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10-13-16 | Red Wings v. Lightning -165 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. Assuming they still reasonably healthy, the Lightning figure to be one of the top teams in the league once again this season. They advanced to the Eastern Conf. Finals last season after making it to the Stanley Cup Finals the previous year. Last year, they were very strong, despite dealing with serious injury issues. This season, they're starting out much healthier. They also return almost the entire lineup from last year, after shelling out big bucks to the likes of Stamkos and Hedmen. This week, they extended Kucherov's contract. They recognize that the "future is now." Coach Cooper noted: "All the players made decisions to fit themselves into a situation with us where we were able to keep everybody back together. It shows the team-first mentality of a lot of our players. It's probably why we've had success here the last couple of years. While the Wings had a good preseason, they've got some new faces this season and they're just 2-9 their last 11 here at Tampa. The Wings got outscored by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin on the road last season. Conversely, the Lightning outscored teams by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin here at home. Add it all up and I expect the Lightning to start their season with a "W." |
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10-12-16 | Flames v. Oilers -128 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON on opening night. These proud franchises have both fallen on hard times in recent years. However, a new season brings new hope for both and there's nothing bigger in the province than "The Battle Of Alberta" on Opening Night. While their team will surely continue to experience some growing fans, Oiler fans are particularly optimistic this year. Edmonton will be playing in a brand new rink and tonight marks its first reg season game there. It also marks the first game that young superstar Connor McDavid, who recently became the youngest captain in NHL history, will "wear the C" on his jersey. McDavid and the Oilers had a strong preseason, going 5-3 and 4-1 at home. Though they lost their final game, 3-2 at Vancouver, they outshot the Canucks by a 36-21 margin and McDavid was flying all over the ice, while scoring a goal. While the Oilers scored 22 goals (allowing 21) in the preason, the Flames finished below .500 while managing a mere 10 (allowing 16) goals. They lost 4-0, also at Vancouver last time out. These teams will face each other again Friday night at Calgary. I look for the Oilers to "hold serve" on home ice, starting the "new era" with a victory. |
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06-12-16 | Penguins v. Sharks -115 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. It would have been easy for the Sharks to quit in this series. Down 2-0 in games, they fell behind in Game 3 but battled back. Down 3-1 in the series and playing on the road, they pulled off the upset. Now, back home, with the support of their Cup-starved fans behind them, I expect the Sharks to force a Game 7. While the Pens managed the split in the first two games here, the Sharks have dominated them here over the years and they've been outstanding on home ice for weeks. I'll note that the travel schedule could favor the Sharks slightly, as they're accustomed to going from time zone to time zone, while the Pens are not. While the Pens run has been impressive as well, many seem to forget that the Sharks are still 24-9 (+14.4) their last 33 against winning teams, as they've been on a mission for weeks. I dont think they're done yet. 10* |
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06-09-16 | Sharks +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing SJ on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) The general feeling is that the Pens have got this series wrapped up. Certainly, they're in a good position. Its not over yet though and I don't expect this season's best road team to go quietly. Rather, I see a tight game, one with a reasonable shot of being tied after three periods. That said, I'm willing to lay the extra price to get the extra +1.5 goals. With everyone thinking the series is over, the price on the Pens on the money-line has gone up. In turn, the price on the Sharks on the puck-line sits in relatively reasonable territory. Three of four games have been decided by a single goal. Look for the Sharks to give everythng they have, en route to AT LEAST a "cover." 6* |
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06-06-16 | Penguins v. Sharks -130 | 3-1 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ. The Sharks got the monkey off their back with their Game 3 victory. That victory showed a lot of resolve and determination. They were down 2-0 in games and feeling a lot of pressure. Then, they were down 1-0 out of the gate. After tying it, they fell behind 2-1. Once again, they fought back. With a Stanley Cup Finals victory under their belts and their rabid fans now in full belief/support, I expect the Sharks to carry the momentum into this evening's game. While the Sharks may have thrived on the road during the regular season, they've been better here at SJ in the playoffs. They've won eight of their last nine here, while having now dropped six of their last eight on the road. They've dominated the Pens here this entire millennium and I see them tying up the series tonight. 10* |
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06-04-16 | Penguins v. Sharks -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE in Game 3. After getting thoroughly outplayed in Game 1, the Sharks were much better in Game 2. It still wasn't enough. That puts them in "must win" territory on Saturday. While teams certainly don't always win just because they need to, I expect the Sharks to be at their very best. This is a team/city which has waited for decades, literally, to get here. So many times, the Sharks teased their fans with a great regular season, only to fade in the playoffs. They played so well throughout the playoffs in winning the West, I don't expect them to just roll over. While the Sharks may have thrived on the road during the regular season, they've been better here at SJ in the playoffs. They've won seven of their last eight here, while having now dropped six of their last eight on the road. They've dominated the Pens here this entire millennium and I fully expect them to come away with the critical victory in Game 3. 10* |
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06-01-16 | Sharks v. Penguins -125 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Everyone I talk to keeps telling me "the Sharks are going to win Game 2." I like and respect the Sharks, too. However, I feel the value lies with the Pens, on home ice, for Game 2. The final 3-2 score from Game 1 was a little misleading, in my opinion, as the Pens actually dominated that game. Pittsburgh would finish with a 41-26 edge in shots on goal. While the Sharks will surely try and make some adjustments, they'll have a lot to "adjust to," as the Pens were successfully penetrating and dominating the zone in a variety of ways. The Pens, 14-4 their last 18 here at Pittsburgh, have beaten the Sharks three of the last four times the teams played here. Crosby may not be putting up huge numbers but he's still arguably the best player in the world and he's still playing excellent hockey. Look for him to lead his team to another victory tonight. 9* |
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05-30-16 | Sharks v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on SJ and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total in Game 1. If this game goes the way I expect it to, we're likely to see an O/U line of five for Game 2. For now, however, we're getting a 5.5 to work with. I believe thats providing us with excellent value. While the offenses have certainly done their part, both teams have also gotten excellent goaltending. The Sharks are allowing 2.3 goals per game in the playoffs, the Pens are allowing 2.4. Both teams started their last series with a low-scoring opening game. Those games had scores of 3-1 and 2-1. Both teams have had more than three day's worth of rest. While that extra rest is surely appreciated at this time of the year, it could potentially also lead to some early offensive rust. Note that the Sharks' last two visits here saw final scores of 3-1 and 3-2, each game staying below the total. While this is new for the Sharks, the Pens have seen the UNDER go 8-3 their last 11 in the finals. The Pens closed off the Tampa series with a 2-1 victory; with both teams feeling each other out in the opener, I expect them to start this series with another low-scoring affair. 10* |
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05-26-16 | Lightning v. Penguins -190 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Great run by the Lightning but I look for it to come to an end tonight. The Pens have been a different team when superstar Sidney Crosby plays his best. In Game 7, I expect to see the "good" Crosby, as he looks to add to his legacy. While the Lightning have been here before (won 2-0 at MSG in Game 7 last year) the losses of Stamkos and Bishop, both of whom starred/played in last year's big Game 7 win, figure to finally catch up with them tonight. The Pens have too much talent and I look for them to ultimately be the team which faces SJ in the finals. 6* |
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05-26-16 | Lightning v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. While this has been a high-scoring series, I expect a lower-scoring contest tonight. The Lightning were involved in a very high-scoring Game 6 in the conference finals last season but saw a much different result in Game 7, as the teams combined for only two goals. The Pens have seen the UNDER go 5-3-1 the past 2+ seasons, when tied in a playoff series. During the same stretch, the Lightning have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when tied in a playoff series. Going back further finds the UNDER at 17-8, excluding pushes, the last 25 times that TB was tied in a playoff series. Look for the young goalies to play well and for this to prove the lowest-scoring game over the last week. 10* |
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05-25-16 | Blues v. Sharks -152 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. For many years, the Sharks have been very good. However, during that time, they've never been to the Stanley Cup Finals. They're finally one game away and I look for them to take that final elusive step this evening. The Sharks have been the more dominant team in these playoffs. While the Blues are only outscoring teams by a 2.9 to 2.7 margin in the postseason, the Sharks are outscoring opponents by a commanding 3.4 to 2.3 average margin. They're 21-6 (+14.2) their last 27 against winning teams and I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. 7* |
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05-24-16 | Penguins -137 v. Lightning | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Lightning are right where they want to be. Up 3-2 with a chance to close out the series at home. I'm not writing off the Pens yet though. Note that the Lightning were here before, up 3-2 with a chance to close out the Rangers in last year's Conference Finals. They got hammered 7-3. While TB is just 17-17 after scoring four or more goals in its previous game, Pittsburgh is 13-5 after allowing four or more. The Pens have been perfect in these playoffs when trailing in a series, bouncing back when trailing earlier in this series and also against Washington. Malkin had this to say: ''I believe in my team. I believe in myself, and we can come back to Pittsburgh for sure." Melkin, Crosby and co. bounce back again. 10* |
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05-24-16 | Penguins v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and TB to finish UNDER the total. With a few high-scoring games, we're now seeing a 5.5 instead of five. Perfect timing as I'm expecting this one to be the lowest scoring game of the series. The UNDER is 15-8 the last 23 times that the Pens had seen their previous three games top the total. That includes a 5-2 UNDER mark in that situation this season. As for the Lightning, they've seen the UNDER go 6-3-2 when their previous three games topped the total. (Keep in mind that the two 'pushes' were games with a total of five.) The Pens have seen the UNDER go 28-14-6 the past few seasons when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. More? The Pens have seen the UNDER go 4-1-1 their last six when trailing in a playoff series, the Lightning have seen the UNDER go 4-1-2 their last seven when leading in a series. Go Under. 10* |
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05-20-16 | Penguins v. Lightning +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing TB on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) Prior to a 4-2 loss last time out, the Lightning hadn't lost a game by more than a goal this entire month. They've been excellent at bouncing back from losses and I'm not willing to write them off quite yet. Over the past few seasons, TB is 38-22 (+12.6) vs. the money-line off a loss by two or more goals, 16-7 in that situation this season. Needless to say, down 2-1 in the series, this game is critical for the Lightning. All three games have been decided by two goals or less and I see this one "coming down to the wire." 6* |
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05-19-16 | Blues v. Sharks -139 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on SJ. While they've excelled here over the years, the Sharks weren't a dominant home team during the regular season. However, they've elevated their game here in the playoffs. They enter tonight's game with a perfect 5-0 record their last five. They battled hard to earn the split in St. Louis, dominating Game 2 by a 4-0 margin. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. The Sharks are now an impressive 19-5 their last 24 against teams with a winning record. They're outscoring teams by a 3.3 to 2.1 margin (in the playoffs) compared to the Blues 2.9 to 2.4 mark. Sharks win. 10* |
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05-16-16 | Lightning v. Penguins -190 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Lightning stole Game 1. That puts the pressure on the Penguins to bounce back in Game 2. I expect them to respond to that pressure with their best effort. The Pens have been money off a loss, as they're a perfect 15-0 the last 15 times they were off a loss, dating back to mid-January. Tough to go against that. 6* |
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05-13-16 | Lightning +1.5 v. Penguins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing TAMPA on the puck-line. With the Pens fairly heavy favorites on the money-line, we're able to get Tampa at a relatively reasonable price on the puck-line. I feel that extra +1.5 goals could easily come into play and that a price of less than -200 is providing very fair value. While the Pens are playing great, the same can be said of the Lightning. They've won four straight and six of seven. They've won their last four games by a combined score of 15-6. By finishing the Isles off quickly, they come in well-rested. That doesn't always help all teams but the Lightning have fared very well in that situation, as they're 7-1 (+5.6) against the money-line when playing with three or more day's rest, the lone loss coming in Game 1 against the Isles. The Lightning are 3-0 against the Pens in 2016 and I look for AT LEAST a "cover" in Game 1 tonight. 6* |
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05-12-16 | Predators v. Sharks -165 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ. While the Preds have pushed them to the brink, I believe that tonight will belong to the Sharks. Home ice has been the difference in the series and it figures to be the difference again this evening. The Sharks have won the three games here by a combined score of 13-5. They're 30-14 their last 44, when facing a team that beat them in the prevoius meeting. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 6* |
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05-09-16 | Stars v. Blues -158 | 3-2 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Blues have been the better team in this series. They've outscored the Stars by a 17-10 margin and have a 3-2 edge in the series. That means the Blues can wrap up the series tonight with a win and that they'll go back to Dallas for Game 7, with a loss. Needless to say, the first option is a whole lot more attractive. The last thing that Blues want to do is go back to Dallas, where the Stars have won 31 games. The Stars just aren't as good away from Dallas though. They allow 3.1 goals per game on the road while the Blues allow just 2.3 here at St. Louis. The Stars are also allowing 3.1 goals per game in the playoffs, compared to 2.5 allowed per game for St. Louis. The Blues arguably had a much more difficult first round opponent, too. Blues wrap it up. 8* |
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05-08-16 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 0-4 | Loss | -198 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing NY on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) The last two games in this series have both been decided by a single goal and another tight game won't surprise at all. Speaking of 1-goal games, when trying to close out the Wings, the Lightning won 1-0 in Game 5 of their opening round series. As for the Isles, they've now seen seven of their 10 playoff games decided by a single goal. I don't expect them to go down without a fight and look for AT LEAST a "cover" this afternoon. 6* |
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05-07-16 | Predators v. Sharks -160 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Predators have gotten themselves back in the series and bring some momentum into tonight's game. They're not as good away from Nashville though. In fact, with the two losses in Game 1 and Game 2, the Preds are just 21-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average of 2.9 to 2.4. Even with the results at Nashville, the Preds are only 14-18 (-4.8) their last 32 against winning teams. During that time, the Sharks are 16-4 (+11.8) against winning teams. With the Sharks also at 29-14 (+14) the last 43 times they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous game, I look for home ice to again prove the difference. 9* |
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05-07-16 | Predators v. Sharks UNDER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on SJ and Nashville to finish UNDER the total. After the "marathon" in the last game, I expect a tight low-scoring game on Saturday. The last game here at SJ finished with five goals. However, it could easily have been lower-scoring. It was 1-0 late in the the third and still 2-1 before an empty net goal was followed by another goal in the final seconds. It took three OT periods to score the winning goal on Thursday, a much different style/pace than was played in regulation. Look for that "OT tempo" to carry over. 10* Blue Chip |
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05-07-16 | Penguins v. Capitals -130 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Caps only lost three games in a row once all season. They resonded to that 3-game skid with a 5-1 victory. Off three straight losses, now they find themselves in a must win situation. I expect them to again respond with a victory. While the Pens are obvioiusly playing very well these days, the Caps still score more goals at home than the Pens do on the road and they still allow less. I'm not writing them off quite yet. 9* |
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05-06-16 | Lightning v. Islanders -106 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Lightning have long since proven that they can win without Stamkos, Stralman and co. Still, I feel they're getting a little too much respect here. The Lightning are still only 23-21 on the road, compared to the Islanders' 27-18 mark at home. Perhaps more importantly, its the Islanders who need this game more, which should add a level of desperation to their play. Yet, we're still able to get the Isles at pick'em price. The Isles actually played very well in Game 3, much better than Game 2. Center Frans Nielson called in the Isles best game so far and went on to say this about tonight: ''It's for sure a must-win for us ... " I expect them to respond with their best effort. 10* |
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05-03-16 | Stars v. Blues -135 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Blues accomplished their goal of getting the split in Dallas. Back on home ice, I expect them to have the advantage in Game 3. Note that the Blues are 3-0 the last three times they hosted the Stars, winning 2-1, 3-2 and 3-0. While the Stars have a potent offense, they can also be suspect defensively. That's particularly true on the road where they allow three goals per game and more than 30 shots per game. By comparison, the Blues allow less than 30 shots per game at home and they allow only 2.4 goals per game here. Armed with such a stingy defense, when the Blues offense also gets rolling, the team really gets going. In fact, they're 19-9 (+7.1) their last 28 after scoring four or more goals their previous game. Look for them to build on those numbers tonight. 9* |
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05-01-16 | Predators v. Sharks UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nashville and SJ to finish UNDER the total. While we saw a high-scoring opener, I expect goals to be harder to come by in Game 2. The Preds, who allowed five goals in Game 1, also let the Ducks score five goals against them in one of the opening round games. They responed by limiting Anaheim to just one goal in each of the next two games, getting outstanding goaltending. The only time they were trailing in the first series, they won the next game 3-1. Prior to Game 1, Nashville's previous seven visits here had these for final scores: 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-1. Look for things to return to "normal" this evening. 10* |
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04-30-16 | Islanders v. Lightning -158 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB. With the Isles taking Game 1 here, the Lightning desperately need to get this one. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Isles have won three straight but they're a horrible 40-71 over the years, after three or more straight wins. That incudes an ugly 3-8 mark this season. They're also just 10-14 (-9.5) off a loss by two or more goals. During that stretch, TB is 15-7 (+5) off a loss by two or more. Going back a little further and we find the Lightning at a profitable 37-22 (+11.6) off a loss by two or more goals. While we have to go back some time, the Lightning are also 20-10 their last 30 when trailing in a playoff series. They followed up their only loss in the opening round with a victory and I look for them to bounce back with a much-needed victory this afternoon. 9* |
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04-29-16 | Predators v. Sharks -160 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ. Could this be the year of the Sharks? Its possible but lets focus on tonight's game for now. While the Preds deserve credit for getting here, they're still only 12-16 (-4.8) their last 28 against winning teams. During the same stretch, the Sharks are 15-4 (+10.8) against winning teams. While the Preds did win here back in October, the Sharks have taken two of the last three meetings here. Going back further finds the Sharks at 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the Preds. I look for them to grab Game 1. 7* |