Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-28-16 | Penguins v. Capitals -126 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 36 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Pens are loaded with talent and they've certainly been hot in recent weeks. The Caps are also loaded though and they've been hot all year long. While the Pens are 24-19 on the road, the Caps are a dominating 31-13 at home. That includes a 20-8 mark here at Washington when the O/U line was less than 5.5. The Pens beat them here a few weeks ago but the Caps are 29-19 (+10.2) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* |
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04-27-16 | Predators v. Ducks -162 | 2-1 | Loss | -162 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. The Preds deserve a lot of credit for pushing the Ducks to the brink. I expect the cream to rise to the top tonight though. The Preds don't have much experience in this situation; with the 5-2 loss in Game 5, they're 0-2 the few seasons when tied in a series. True, they bounced back with a 3-1 win in Game 5. However, during that stretch, they're also 26-35 off a win by two or more goals, a moneyburning 8-15 (-15.2) this season. The Ducks, 5-2 the last seven times they were tied in a playoff series, outscore teams by a 2.9 to 2.1 margin at this rink on the season, while the Preds get outscored by a 2.9 to 2.5 margin on the road. Take the superior team, playing at home. *8 |
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04-25-16 | Blackhawks v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. With the Hawks doing everything they could to get back in the series, recent games have been high-scoring. Now, with things back to even and with it all in the line, I expect things to change back to the way they were at the beginning of the series. Remember, way back in Game 1, when the Blues won 1-0, a game which was scoreless after three periods. Blues goalie Elliott stood on his head, stopping all 35 shots he faced. It took a bad bounce to beat Crawford in OT. While that seems like ancient history, it was less than two weeks ago. When the series has been tied, incuding the opening game, the games have averaged only three goals per game. Hitchcock has long been regarded as a defensive coach and I expect this to be a defensive affair. 10* |
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04-24-16 | Capitals -170 v. Flyers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Flyers have made things interesting. However, I look for the superior team to seal the deal this afternoon. While the Flyers are 8-12 (-4.6) off a win by two or more goals, the Caps are 10-2 (+6.7) off a loss by two or more. The Caps score more, and allow less, goals on the road than the Flyers do at home. They're arguably stronger in all areas and I look for them to be on a mission from the opening whistle. 7* |
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04-23-16 | Blues v. Blackhawks UNDER 5 | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis UNDER. The recent games have been high-scoring but I won't be surprised to see a low-scoring battle in this one. The Hawks are allowing only 2.1 goals per game at home. Excluding pushes, the Under is 12-8 (60%) in games here when the O/U line was less than 5.5. Speaking of "12-8," the Blues, who allow an average of 2.4 goals per game, have seen the UNDER go 12-8 this season, after allowing four or more goals. While there's always a reasonable chance of a 'push.' on these totals of five, I believe this one has a greater shot at producing fewer than five goals than it does of finishing with more than five. 8* |
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04-23-16 | Blues v. Blackhawks -137 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Don't count out the Hawks. The Hawks stayed alive with a critical win at St. Louis last time out. Back on home ice, backs still to the wall, I expect them to play like champions again this evening. The Hawks are now 10-3 (+6.8) the last 13 times that they played when trailing in a playoff series. Extremely well-coached and with a ton of talent and leadership on the ice, the Hawks will refuse to say die here. 9* Personal Favorite |
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04-23-16 | Predators v. Ducks -160 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. This series has been dominated by the road team. However, I expect the Ducks to restore order on home ice today. For the first time all series, the Ducks are coming off a game where they scored more than three goals; they won Game 4 by a score of 4-1. That's noteworthy as they're a fanastic 69-29 (+31.3) the past 2+ seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the Preds are just 36-43 (-11.2) after allowing four or more. Talent, momentum, playoff experience and venue all favor the Ducks. I expect them to take care of business. 8* |
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04-22-16 | Sharks v. Kings -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. Its true that the Sharks have been very good on the road and also that they've thrived here in LA. The Kings have been very good here for years though. Facing elimination, they're not about go down without a fight. I believe that they're favored for good reason. The Kings can take inspiration from their own 2014 Stanley Cup winning team. You may recall that they were in a 3-0 hole against these same Sharks, before making their improbable run. They're 25-15 their last 40 against an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting and I look for them to bounce back with a win tonight. 10* |
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04-21-16 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Lightning | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing DETROIT on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) It may seem like a steep price to pay but I believe that this is actually a "good deal," given the situation. The last game was a close one, a 3-2 win for the Lightning. That's been the story of these playoffs overall and we saw it again yesterday; each of Wednesday's games was decided by a single goal. The Lightning offense isn't as explosive without its top sniper and the Wings haven't been held off the scoresheet in any of their last 17 games, scoring at least two goals in 15 straight. This is a veteran team with a lot of savvy and a lot pride. I don't expect them to go down without a fight and look for at least a "cover" here. 6* |
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04-20-16 | Capitals v. Flyers +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Flyers on the Puck-Line. (+1.5 goals) The Flyers got blown out in Game 3 and are now down 3-0 in the series. Even die-hard Flyer fans aren't too hopeful. I don't like their chances of coming back to win the series either - but I do expect tonight to result in their most competitive effort of the series. They're a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they were off three or more consecutive losses; since a 6-game losing streak early on in the season, they've had five different (six including this one) 3-game losing streaks. They've snapped the streak right there, in each of them. Note that three of those came by a single goal. Facing elimination, I expect them to again respond with their best effort, leading to AT LEAST a "cover" on the puck-line. 6* |
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04-19-16 | Blues v. Blackhawks -155 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Hawks are essentially in a "must win" spot here and I expect them to respond accordingly. This is a team of champions, extremely well-coached, highly talented and very experienced. They've been in this spot many times and they know the task at hand. The Blues are 1-3 (-2.2) the past few seasons when playing with a lead in a playoff series, a spot they haven't fared well in. During the same span, the Hawks are 9-2 (+7.2) when trailing in a playoff spot, a spot they've thrived in. I expect them to bounce back big (again) here. 10* |
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04-19-16 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Pens and Rangers to finish UNDER the total. Whether its basketball or hockey, the change in venue for Game 3 often leads to a change in the "pace" at which a game is played. I expect that to be the case tonight; after two high-scoring games at Pittsburgh, I expect tonight's game at MSG to be lower-scoring. Five of the past eight meetings here, including two of the last three, have produced five or fewer goals. The last meeting here was on 3/27, a 3-2 win for the Pens. While the Pens don't score nearly as many goals on the road as they do at home, they actually allow slightly less on the road than they do at home. Overall, their road games are averaging 5.1 goals. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 9-4 when they play a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to imrprove here. 10* |
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04-18-16 | Capitals v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -251 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Flyers on the Puck-Line (+1.5 goals.) The value of an extra 1.5 goals is huge in hockey, arguably even more so in the playoffs. Three of yesterday's four games were again decided by a single goal. Down 0-2, the Flyers return home as a desperate club. They know that is now or never for them and I expect their absolute best effort. The Flyers have won four of their last five here overall and the lone loss came by a single goal. They've also beaten Washington five of the last six meetings here. So, why lay the extra $ for the extra +1.5 goals? While I also like the Flyers as an underdog to win "outright," the Caps are a very strong team and they've been great on the road this season. An OT game won't surprise and if thats the case, I'll sure feel a lot better with the extra +1.5 goals. 6* B.M. |
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04-17-16 | Predators v. Ducks -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. Losing the first game has put a lot of pressure on the Ducks to win this one. I expect them to respond accordingly. This is a talented team, one which has been very strong on home ice. The Ducks, now 8-3 in the first round the past 2+ seasons, are still 11-6 their last 17 against winning teams. On the other han, even with their Game 1 win, the Preds are only 9-13 (-5.6) against winning teams, during the same time. Expect the Ducks to be all business as they bounce back in convincing fashion. 8* |
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04-17-16 | Panthers v. Islanders -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Islanders got their road split and now they're on home ice, where they've been much stronger all season and where they average better than three goals per game. The Isles are 14-6 (+6.9) off a game where they scored one goal or less and 15-6 (+8.8) off a loss by two or more goals. I believe this price is very reasonable and I look for them to improve on those stats this evening. *8 |
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04-17-16 | Lightning v. Red Wings -120 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. While the Lightning were able to win both games at home, I expect the absence of Stamkos and Stralman to finally catch up with them, on the road, against a desperate Detroit team. The Lightning weren't nearly as good on the road as they were at Tampa and the Wings were better here at Detroit than they were on the road. The home team has now won all six meetings this season and I expect that trend to continue for at least another day. 9* |
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04-16-16 | Sharks v. Kings -141 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. After dropping the opener here, the Kings obviously really need this one. With their backs to the wall, I expect their best effort. Note that they're 5-2 (+3.6) the past couple of seasons, when trailing in the playoffs. This season, they're 13-7 after allowing four or more goals. They're also 24-14 when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, 9-5 when attempting to avenge a home loss. They should improve on those stats here. 10* personal favorite |
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04-16-16 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 50 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. The series opener between these teams had an O/U line of 5, with some fairly heavy juice attached to the 'over.' With that game producing seven goals, the O/U line has now climbed to 5.5, the extra juice attached to the 'under.' I expect Game 2 to be much lower-scoring and feel that the extra half goal is providing us with excellent value. Prior to Game 1, five of the previous eight meetings between these teams had produced five or fewer combined goals, the last five games all having O/U lines of five. Four of five games in last year's playoff series finished with scores of 2-1. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 10* blue chip |
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04-15-16 | Predators v. Ducks -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. One of the reasons that the NHL playoffs are exciting is that any team is capable of beating any other. That said, this is a tough matchup for the Predators. Home ice means a lot to both clubs and it was the difference in the season series. The Preds won 3-2 and 5-1 in the games at Nashville. The Ducks won 4-2 here at Anaheim. Going back a little further and we find that the Ducks have beaten the Preds three straight times in Southern California, going 5-1 the last six meetings here. The Preds were below .500 on the road on the season, getting outscored by an average score of 2.9 to 2.4 when playing away from Nashville. Thats not going to cut it against an Anaheim team which outscores teams by an average of 2.8 to 2.1 in this building. Home ice makes the difference, the Ducks moving to 40-20 the last 60 times they played at home with an O/U line of less than 5.5. 9* Personal Favorite |
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04-14-16 | Sharks v. Kings -136 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -136 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. Neither of these teams has played since 4/9. I expect that longer than usual break to favor the Kings as they've been much better than San Jose has been that situation. On 2/2, after an extended break, the Sharks lost 3-2 against the Ducks. On 1/7, they lost 2-1 against the Wings. They returned from Christmas to lose 6-3 against the Avs on 12/28. Earlier in the season, they lost 3-1 against the Predators. That adds up to an 0-4 (-5) mark when playing with three or more day's rest, the Sharks getting outscored in those games by a 14-7 margin. On the other hand, the Kings were 7-2 (+3.4) when playing with three or more day's rest. They beat Montreal 3-2 on 3/3. They destroyed Boston 9-2 on 2/9, after handling Arizona by a 6-2 margin on 2/2. That was preceded by a 5-3 loss against the Sens, a 4-3 win against Arizona, a 5-3 win against the Pens, a 4-1 win against these same Sharks, after an early 4-3 win against Nashville and an 0-3 loss against Vancouver. That's a combined 38-24 in favor of the Kings in the those nine games. Add up the Sharks 0-4 mark in that situation with the Kings 7-2 mark and you've got a combined 11-2 "in season" angle. While the Sharks were indeed good on the road, the Kings are every bit as good at home. Even with a couple of losses this season, the Kings are still 14-5 the last 19 as a host in the series. I look for them to start things off with a "W." 10* Game Of Week |
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04-13-16 | Red Wings v. Lightning -148 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. Without Stamkos, many will be calling for the upset in this series and likely in this game, too. His loss is certainly a blow to their overall hopes of hoisting the Cup, however, I believe the Lightning still have the depth and talent to take care of business on home ice tonight. Remember, the home team won all four games during the season. The Wings were 19-22 on the road, getting outscored 3.0 to 2.5; the Lightning oustscored teams by an average of 2.9 to 2.4 here at Tampa, going 25-16. While coaches Cooper and Blashill are friends, Cooper has done the better job of having his team ready, when playing with some extra rest. The Wings are 3-5 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Lightning are 6-0 when doing so. I'm going with Tampa. 9* |
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04-10-16 | Flyers v. Islanders -138 | 5-2 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. While I won with the Flyers yesterday, I'm going against them here. Yesterday's victory, which came against instate rival Pittsburgh, secured the final playoff spot for the Flyers and guaranteed them a date with Washington in the first round. That's where their focus is already now on. As Voracek noted: "We have a good enough team to beat Washington and we have to focus on that.'' The Isles have already also locked up a playoff spot. However, a win here will get them the Penguins while a loss would have them play Florida. While one could argue that the Isles would actually prefer to play the Panthers, I look for them to be motivated to win here. The Flyers have beaten them two straight times and they don't want to back their way into the playoffs. While the Flyers are 5-10 (-5.6) when playing the second of b2b games, the Isles are 9-5 (+3.4) when doing so. 9* |
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04-09-16 | Oilers v. Canucks -112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. Many of you will recall that I just won with the Oilers, when these teams played each other a few nights ago. Edmonton won that game by a score of 6-2. That was Edmonton's home finale. Tonight, however, its the Canucks who are playing their home finale. That being the case and with the Canucks playing with revenge on their minds, I expect a much different result than we saw on Wednesday. Needless to say, neither team has had a good year. The Canucks have been (slightly) better at home than the Oilers have been on the road though and they'd badly like to reward the faithful with one final victory before the season ends. With back-to-back losses in Alberta, the Canucks are 43-49 in divisional games the past few seasons. While that record isn't very good, its MUCH better than the Oilers' 21-65 (-38.2!) mark against divisional opponents, during the same period. These teams last played here on 12/26, the Canucks winning by a score of 2-1. They were -135 favorites in that one. Including that victory, the Canucks are 6-2 the last eight times they hosted the Oilers and 16-5 the last 21. They were bigger favorites in EVERY single one of those games (lines ranged from -125 up to more than -300!) than they are tonight. I look for the Canucks to be the hungrier team tonight and believe that a line in the pick'em range is providing us with excellent value. 10* |
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04-09-16 | Penguins v. Flyers -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While both teams always love beating their instate rival, this game means MUCH more to the Flyers than it does to the Penguins. The Flyers need a win, the Pens have already wrapped up their playoff spot and today's result won't affect their seed. While they've been playing well, the Pens are dealing with a number of injuries. Though I won't count on it, I wouldn't be shocked to see some of the stars get the afternoon off for rest. Either way, the Pens are only 5-7 (-3.6) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5 while the Flyers are 8-3 (+3) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Flyers are 23-16 (+12.6) when facing teams with a winning record this season. I look for their best effort in this critical game, as they bounce back, improving to 6-3 when off three or more consecutive losses. 10* Main Event |
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04-09-16 | Senators v. Bruins -217 | 6-1 | Loss | -217 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Bruins, 48-19 (+20.8) in Saturday games the past few seasons, desperately need a win. The Senators are playing out the string, looking to play spoiler. "Must win" games don't always win, of course. However, in this case, I look for the Bruins to be the much hungrier team. The Sens don't play much defense on the road. They've given up an average of 3.4 goals per game on the road this season, 34 shots a game. They're scoring only 2.6 goals over their past five games, on the strength of 25.8 shots per game. That's not going to cut it against a determined Boston team which is averaging 3.4 goals and 36.8 shots its past five games. The home team has won all three meetings, the Sens winning both at Ottawa, the Bruins winning the lone one here at Boston by a score of 7-3. They're 18-11 (+5.4) in divisional play and I look for them to pick up the critical two points here. 6* |
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04-08-16 | Blue Jackets v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Columbus and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. The last eight Buffalo games have ALL had O/U lines of five. Tonight, we're getting an extra 1/2 goal to work with. The difference between 5 and 5.5 may not sound like much but its extremely significant, as a high number of games finish with exactly five goals. A look at the Sabres' last dozen games shows that 10 of them have finished with five or fewer goals. If the O/U line was 5.5 for each of them, the UNDER would have been 10-2. Instead, however, as 11 of those games had O/U lines of five, the UNDER was only 2-8-2. Yes, EIGHT of the Sabres last 12 finished with exactly five goals. For the season, the UNDER is 9-4 when the played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Sabres are riding just their second 3-game winning streak of the season. After previously winning three straight, their next game finished with a score of 2-1. This season's two series meetings have averaged exactly five goals (4-0 and 4-2) and I look for this one to also finish at five or less. 9* |
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04-07-16 | Ducks v. Kings -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. This is a big game for both teams and I look for home ice to ultimately prove the difference. While the Ducks are 19-14-5 on the road, the Kings are 25-12-2 at home. Anaheim knows that winning here isn't easy. Can Fowler noted: "Anytime you go up into L.A., it's going to be a hostile environment in there. It's extremely difficult to play in that building, especially ... " While the Ducks have enjoyed a fantastic second half, their success has primarily come against the league's weaker teams. In fact, they're only 16-16 (-1.8) against winning teams on the season. LA, on the other hand, is 19-11 (+4.2) against teams with a winning record. Note that the Kings are also 12-6 (+2.3) after allowing four or more goals and 23-12 (+3.4) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. LA's Jeff Carter, who scored the winning goal in OT for the Kings in their last game, had this to say: "It's a big game. We want to win the rest of the games here and get on a roll..." I look for Carter and co. to bring their A Game, en route to earning the important two points. 10* |
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04-07-16 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers -230 | 4-3 | Loss | -230 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While I played against the Flyers last night, I'm playing on them tonight. Off back-to-back losses, this game has become critical for the Flyers. They're still holding down a playoff spot - but they're barely doing so - and their final two games (Pens and Isles) are against far more difficult opponents than this one. The Leafs are playing out the string. While they may say otherwise, the Leafs may be thinking more about improving their standing in the draft lottery than about winning games. Yesterday was their home finale and they got destroyed 5-1 by a bad Columbus team. While both teams are playing the second of b2b games here, the Leafs are also playing their third game in four nights, which is not the case for the Flyers. While the Leafs are 7-13 on the road when the O/U line was 5.5, the Flyers are 8-2 at home with an O/U line of 5.5. They should bounce back in a big way here. 6* B.M. |
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04-07-16 | Red Wings v. Bruins -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON. While I won with the Wings last night, I'm going against them here. Last night's win was huge for the Red Wings and it actually helped the Bruins too, as they're fighting with the Flyers for the final spot. Boston, which had last night off, knows it needs this one though. Boston's Bergeron noted: "...This is our last chance and we have to seize it and go out there and do it." Though they did beat Toronto the last time they were in that situation, the Wings are still a poor 5-11 (-6.8) when playing the second of b2b games. Look for the Bruins to be a little fresher and a little hungrier as they elevate their game, en route to earning a critical two points. 9* |
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04-07-16 | Islanders v. Rangers -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. The Isles have won each of this season's previous meetings. They've never swept the Rangers though and I don't see it happening tonight. Chris Kreider, who scored the game winner for the Rangers against Tampa on Tuesday, had this to say: "The last few games are really big for us because we'd like to have home ice in the first round of the playoffs, that's a pretty big advantage." While the Rangers are also dealing with some injuries, the Isles' injury woes are arguably worse. Indeed, the Isles are without both their #1 goalie and their #1 defenseman as well as a number of others who are banged-up. While the Isles have admittedly fared well here recently, the Rangers' 26-9-4 home record remains far superior to the Isles' 19-16-5 mark on the road. Note that the Isles are only 7-9 (-2.4) when playing a road game with an O/U of less than 5.5 while the Rangers are 22-9 (+8.5) when playing a home game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. I really like the way the Rangers rallied to beat the Lightning and I look for them to carry that positive momentum into tonight's game, as they rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep. 10* |
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04-06-16 | Flyers v. Red Wings -117 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Flyers took the first two meetings this season. Playing their final home game of the season, a game they really need to win, I expect the Red Wings to return the favor this evening. Detroit coach Jeff Blashill had this to say about the Wings' approach tonight: "We want to play a complete 60 minutes, we want to be on our toes and get them on their heels. When momentum goes against us, we need to make sure we recapture it as quick as possible. Should be a great game. We're excited for it. Let's enjoy this. Let's enjoy the great opportunity we have ahead of us." While the Flyers upset them here in January, the Wings have still dominated them here at Detroit over the years. They're 25-18 (+5.4) in the 'revenge' role and I expect them to be at their best on NBCS tonight. 10* |
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04-06-16 | Canucks v. Oilers -150 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. While the Canucks have been the hotter team in recent days, I believe that Edmonton is favored for good reason. This is the final home game for the Oilers and they'd desperately like to reward the faithful with a victory. They'd also really like to "hold serve" at home, as they'll face these same Canucks at Vancouver on 4/9, the final game of the season for both teams. While the Canucks are 6-11 (-8.1) the past 17 times that they were off a 3-game winning streak, the Oilers are 10-7 (+3.8) when off three or more consecutive losses. The Oilers, who average 2.6 gpg game at home, beat the Canucks, who average 2.3 gpg on the road, by a 2-0 score here a few weeks ago. I expect them to be the "hungrier" team tonight and for that to lead to another victory. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-05-16 | Sharks v. Wild -115 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I believe this game will mean a little more to the Wild. True, the Sharks are proud of their impressive road record and would like to keep winning. The Wild still haven't officially clinched a playoff spot though and they know that they need to get back on track and gain some momentum before the postseason. A victory tonight would accomplish both those goals. While they've had trouble at San Jose over the years, the Wild split there this season. They've fared well against the Sharks here at Minnesota, winning seven of the past eight meetings. Look for them to get back on track this evening. 10* Personal Favorite |
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04-05-16 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -200 | 2-1 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON. I successfully played against the Bruins in their last game. That was on the road against a talented and motivated Chicago squad though. The Hurricanes represent a significant drop in class though and I expect a now desperate Bruins team to take advantage. Boston's recent swoon has put them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. They know if they can win their final three that they're in though, making winning this one imperative. Coach Claude Julien noted: "We've got a big week ahead of us. All we've got to do is win our games and we're in. Our focus has to be on that and that's what we're going to do this week – one game at a time." The Canes are 6-10 (-2.2) their last 16 against teams with a winning record. During that stretch, the Bruins are 12-7 against teams with a losing record. While the Canes beat them here last month, the Bruins are still 4-1 their last five home games in the series. Look for them to bounce back in a big way here. 6* |
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04-04-16 | Rangers -140 v. Blue Jackets | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Rangers have dropped three straight, Columbus should be the perfect opponent to get back on track against. The Rangers, who haven't lost four in a row all season, are 3-0 against the Jackets this season and 4-1 in five visits here the past few seasons. While the Jackets are 2-11 (-8.8) their last 13 against teams with a winning record, the Rangers are 12-5 (+4.6) during the same span, when facing teams with a losing record. With the Rangers also at 11-1 (+10.2) their last 12, after losing three or more consecutive games, I'm backing the visitors. 9* Personal Favorite |
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04-03-16 | Stars v. Ducks -145 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. The home team has won both meetings this season and I expect home ice to again make the difference tonight. The Stars have won four straight. However, they're off an 'upset' at LA last night and are now playing their third game in the past four days. That's noteworthy as they're just 4-7 (-3.4) when playing the second of b2b games, an ugly 13-23 (-7.5) their last 36. I rarely pay much attention to what day of the week it is, in terms of handicapping. However, in this case, I feel its worth mentioning that Anaheim plays quite a few more Sunday games than Dallas does. The Starts are 8-14 (-6.2) on Sundays the past few seasons while the Ducks have played roughly twice as many, going a profitable 33-10 (+18.9). With the Ducks at 4-1 the last five times that the teams played here, I'm backing the home team. 9* personal favorite |
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04-03-16 | Bruins v. Blackhawks -123 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Black Hawks (5-4 win over Jets) on Friday and I believe they're offering us excellent value again here. While its true that the Bruins have been excellent on the road, the Hawks are also very tough to beat at home. They're playing with 'revenge' this afternoon, having lost at Boston a few weeks ago. I rarely pay much attention to what day of the week it is, in terms of handicapping. However, in this case, I feel its worth mentioning that Chicago plays a lot of Sunday games and Boston rarely does. The Bruins are 2-3 on Sundays this season and 11-9 the last few seasons. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 12-3 on Sundays this season and 37-16 on Sundays the past few years. I expect that familiarity, combined with home ice, to help them be the team which better copes with the early starting time here. Look for them to improve to 14-6 their last 20, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. 9* breakfast club |
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04-02-16 | Devils v. Lightning -210 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
'm playing on TAMPA. The Lightning lost 3-0 Thursday but I fully expect them to bounce back here. Tampa is 12-6 (+2.9) off a loss by two or more goals, a profitable 34-21 (+9.3) its last 55 in that situation. With Thursday's loss at Florida, the Devils are a poor 18-32 their last 50 against teams with a winning record, in the second half of the season. The Devils average just 2.2 goals per game on the season and only 1.8 over their last five games. On the other hand, even after getting blanked last time out, the Lightning are still averaging 3.6 gpg their last five and 2.8 per game on the season. The Lightning, who won 4-0 at NJ, are 15-6 (+5.2) their last 21 against losing teams. They'll improve on those stats here. 6* |
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04-02-16 | Canadiens v. Panthers -200 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. While the Canadiends did them a favor by beating Tampa on Thursday, don't exepct the Panthers to go easy on them tonight. While it may have won b2b games, Montreal is a mess right now. The Habs have been without their top goalie for months and now their blue line is in shambles. In fact, they played with just five defensemen on Thursday, after Nathan Beaulieu left with a broken thumb. That figures to spell trouble against a Florida team which is averaging 3.58 goals per game (tied for 2nd best in the NHL) since March 7th. The Panthers have won this season's two meetings by a combined score of 7-2. While they outscore teams by a 3.0 to 2.5 margin here, the Canadiens are getting outscored by an average of 3.3 to 2.8 on the road. Look for the healthier and hungrier team to finish on top, improving to 9-4 at home, when the O/U line was 5.5. 6* |
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04-02-16 | Sabres v. Rangers -225 | 4-3 | Loss | -225 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. While I won with the Sabres on Thursday, there's a big difference between playing a home game against the Leafs and facing the Rangers at MSG. Buffalo fans know that fact all too well as the Sabres are 0-9 their last nine in this series. The Rangers won eight of those nine games, including each of the last five, by multiple goals, too. Overall, the Sabres are 3-9 (-3.4) their last 12 against teams with a winning record and 10-25 (-8.6) on the season. Conversely, the Rangers are 24-13 against teams with a losing record, 12-4 (+6.6) their last 16. Looking back a bit further finds NY at a profitable 43-14 (+22) its last 57 against losing teams, in the second half of the season. Off back-to-back losses, the Rangers should be extremely motivated. Look for them to bounce back and improve to 14-7 (+7.3) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. 6* |
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04-01-16 | Blackhawks -148 v. Jets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Off a 4-1 loss on Wednesday, the Hawks should be all business this evening. While they lost this season's first meeting here, the Hawks have since beaten the Jets three striaght times. They're 5-1 their last six visits to Winnipeg. While the Jets are 8-15 (-8) after scoring one goal or less, the Hawks are 12-6 (+2.6) after allowing four or more. The Hawks are 25-12 (+7.1) against losing teams. The Jets, on the other hand, are 12-22 (-7.2) against teams with a winning record. Even without a few key pieces, the Hawks should have more than enough to get it done. 9* personal fav |
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03-31-16 | Senators v. Wild -190 | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Sens won yesterday, I expect them to stumble at a much tougher venue tonight. The Wild, who had yesterday off, are playing their best hockey of the season right now, having won six straight. Their last three games saw them win by a combined score of 14-3. No team has scored more than two goals against them in two weeks. The Sens are an ugly 3-10 (-7.4) their last 13 when playing the second of b2b games and a money-burning 14-27 (-10.6) in that situation the past few seasons. They don't fare well on the road against good defensive teams either, going 1-5 in six road games where the O/U line was less than 5.5. Looking to avenge a loss at Ottawa from a couple of weeks ago, I look for the Wild to keep on rolling for another day, improving to 13-7 the last 20 times that they were off a game where they scored four or more goals. 6* B.M. |
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03-31-16 | Canadiens v. Lightning -235 | 3-0 | Loss | -235 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Canadiens have won both this season's meetings and that should ensure we've got a fully motivated Lightning team tonight. That shoud be all we need, as TB is much better than Montreal these days. While the Habs are 14-24 (-9.8) on the road, the Lightning are 24-15 at home. Tampa outscores teams by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin here. Montreal gets outscored by a 3.3 to 2.8 average on the road. The Lightning, who won 3-0 on Monday and who have now won four of five, are 12-7 when playing with two day's rest. They're also a dominating 15-5 (+7.6) their last 20 against teams with a losing record. During that span, the Habs are just 4-9 (-3.1) against teams with a winning record. The Lightning are 5-1 off a shutout win and I fully expect another "W" tonight. 6* |
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03-31-16 | Maple Leafs v. Sabres -121 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. While the Leafs are off a win and the Sabres are off a loss, I believe that the Sabres are playing better hockey these days, particularly here at Buffalo. They've won two in a row here and three of four. The Sabres have also been much better against other 'bad' teams than the Leafs have. Toronto is 5-12 (-6.2) its last 17 against teams with a losing record and 12-19 on the season. Buffalo, on the other hand, is a profitable 19-15 (+7.4) against losing teams. While the Leafs are 6-10 (-2.4) off a win by two or more goals, the Sabres are 11-9 (+5.2) after allowing four or more goals. The Sabres score more goals (2.4 gpg compared to 2.1) at home than the Leafs do on the road. The Sabres also allow fewer goals (2.7 compared to 3.0) here than the Leafs do on the road. All things considered, I feel the price could easily be higher and I look for the Sabres to be the team which comes away with the two points. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-30-16 | Flames v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Calgary and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. While its true that the Flames aren't the stingiest team in the league, I believe the true O/U line for this game should be five, rather than 5.5. Games at Anaheim are averaging only 4.8 goals this season. While the Flames average only 2.5 goals per game on the road, the Ducks allow a mere 2.1 per game here at home. Over the past few seasons, the UNDER is 50-36 when the Flames played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5 and 44-33 when the Ducks played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. (That's a combined 94-69, a solid 57.7%.) The Flames have only scored 21 combined goals their last 12 trips here and the Ducks are off a 2-1 win in their last game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* |
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03-29-16 | Avalanche v. Blues -235 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Off back-to-back losses, the Avs got back on track yesterday, earning a 4-3 win at Nashville. This is a difficult spot/matchup for them though. Note that Colorado is just 6-11 (-6.4) after scoring four or more goais in its previous game. The Blues also scored four goals in their last game, a 4-0 win over Washington. Unlike their guests, however, the Blues had the past two days off. (They're 12-5/+5.4 when playing with two day's rest, 32-15/+11 in that situation the past few seasons.) Also, the Blues allowed zero goals, as compared to three, their second straight 4-0 shutout and their fourth shutout in a row. (They're the first team in more than 10 years with four straight shutouts!) Additionally, unlike the Avs, the Blues are a profitable 15-8 (+4.3) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Avs, who will be without their top two offensive players (MacKinnon, Duchene), best hope might be for the Blues to overlook them. However, thats highly unlikely to happen as the Blues are playing with "triple-revenge." The Blues haven't given up a goal in more than 240 minutes. With starting goalie Elliott at 8-0 (1.58 GAA) since February, I'm laying the wood with the home team. 6* B.M. |
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03-28-16 | Sabres v. Red Wings -183 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The last time that these teams met (1/22) the Wings were off b2b losses. Some of you may recall that I played on them in that game, stating that they badly needed a victory and that the Sabres were the perfect opponent to get one against. The Wings would outshoot the Sabres 45-19 in that game, winning 3-0. While that was at Buffalo, the Wings have also dominated the Sabres here at Detroit. Even with a December loss here, the Wings are 8-1 the last nine meetings here and 16-2 the last 18. Off a 7-2 loss last time out, the Wings badly need another victory. Once again, I believe the Sabres are the right opponent to get them one. 6* |
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03-28-16 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -248 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Leafs upset the Lightning at Toronto a couple of weeks ago. Don't count it happening again tonight though. The Lightning have beaten the Leafs four straight here at Tampa, winning six of the last seven meetings here. The Leafs are 4-21 (-15.2) in divisional play, 6-18 (-9.6) after scoring one goal or less and 13-22 against teams with a winning record. The Lightning are 27-13 against losing teams, incl 14-5 (+6.6) their last 19. Look for the Lightning to bounce back from Saturday's loss, improving to 12-6 off a loss by two or more goals. 6* |
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03-28-16 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -239 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Both these teams lost badly on Saturday. Columbus fell 5-1 at Nashville while Washington was blanked 4-0 by the Blues. The Caps have been MUCH better at bouncing back from those type of defeats though. The Jackets are 8-19 (-11.1) after allowing four or more goals and 9-17 (-7.5) after a loss by two more goals. Meanwhile, the Caps are 7-1 (+5.6) after scoring one or fewer goals and 8-1 (+6.6) after a loss by two or more. The Caps have taken two of three meetings and are 5-1 the last six series meetings here at Washington. They should continue that dominance this evening, improving to 18-5 (+10.2) when playing a home game with a total listed at LESS than 5.5. 6* |
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03-26-16 | Oilers v. Kings -225 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. The Oilers are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Kings have dropped three straight for the third time this season. They snapped the skid at three, on each of the previous occasions, allowing just a single goal in each of the victories. Looking back a bit further finds them at a profitable 16-8 (+7.6) the past few seasons, after losing three or more consec. games. If the line seems steep, keep in mind that the Oilers are just 20-62 (-35.7) in divisional games the past few seasons. Look for LA to again bounce back, improving to 11-5 after allowing four or more goals in its previous game. 6* B.M. |
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03-26-16 | Stars v. Sharks -125 | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The home team has won both meetings this season and I expect that trend to continue this afternoon. While they did beat the Hawks recently, the Stars are still just 7-9 (-3.8) their last 16 against teams with a winning record. The Sharks, on the other hand, have been at their best against other quality teams recently. They're 10-2 (+7.6) their last 12 against teams with a winning record. Look for the Sharks to come away with the two points, improving to 14-6 their last 10 off a loss by two or more goals. 9* annihilator |
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03-25-16 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB/NYI OVER the total. These teams can both put the puck in the net. The Lightning average 2.8 goals per game, 2.9 here at home. Over their last five, they're average 3.2 ggp. While they've had some trouble scoring lately, the Isles are still a talented offensive team. They're still averaging 2.8 goals per game. The Isles offense got back on track with three goals last time out while the Lightning exploded for six. The OVER is 5-3-2 when TB attempted to avenge an earlier loss and 5-3-5 when the Isles played a road game with an O/U line of five. While there's always a reasonable chance of a push, when playing an O/U line of five in a hockey game, I feel this one has a much better shot at finishing with more than five, than it does with less. 9* |
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03-24-16 | Canucks v. Predators OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver and Nashville to finish OVER the total. The Canucks have been blanked in three straight games. That's not good. Its particularly bad when your team has allowed AT LEAST two goals in ALL 11 of its March games. The Canucks will (obviously) be highly motivated to score tonight and they should find the back of the net at least a couple of times against the Predators. After all, like Vancouver, Nashville has allowed AT LEAST two goals in ALL 10 of its games played in March, allowing an average of 2.9 per game during that stretch. The Preds have averaged 3.6 goals themselves during March. Not surprisingly, the OVER was 7-1-2. These teams combined for six goals at Vancouver a couple of weeks ago. The most recent meeting at Nashville saw them combine for nine goals; the last four meeetings here have produced 26 goals. While we have to lay a little extra juice to play at O5, I feel it'll prove to be well worth it. 9* blue chip |
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03-24-16 | Canadiens v. Red Wings -215 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The home team has won both meetings this season. The Habs won in Montreal in October. The Wings returned the favor with a victory here in December. With tonight's game at Detroit, I expect the Wings, who have won seven of 10 here, to take advantage of a depleted Habs lineup which has had trouble on the road all season. While the Canadiens are essentially playing out the string, the Wings are battling for their playoff lives. Justin Abdelkader had this to say: "We've obviously been comfortable at home, so we've just got to come out and play well ... It's a big game for us." While the Wings give up 2.5 goals per game here at home, the Canadiens give up 3.3 per game on the road. The Wings can't afford to squander this opportunity and I don't believe that they will. 6* B.M |
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03-23-16 | Senators v. Islanders -175 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Islanders badly need a win and this should be the perfect spot/opponent to get one. While the Isles had last night off, the Sens were busy losing (4-2) against the Capitals. That's noteworthy as they're just 3-9 (-6.4) when playing the second of b2b games, an ugly 14-26 their last 40 in that situation. The Isles are still 11-6 off a loss by two or more goals and 12-6 after scoring one or less in their last game. They had some back luck on Monday as a puck bounced off the linesman to give the Flyers a break which led to the game-winning goal. (Flyers won 4-1 but was 1-1 when that happened.) While the Sens are 14-22 on the road, the Isles are 21-13 at home. Ottawa allows 3.6 goals per game on the road. The Isles allow 2.4 here at home. It all adds up to two points for the home team. *9 violator |
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03-22-16 | Stars v. Blackhawks -135 | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Hawks are too talented to continue losing. The Stars are no slouches themselves, but the absence of Seguin figures to hurt against an elite team like Chicago. Given the home/road records, the price could easily be higher. The Stars are a modest 19-17 on the road, where they give up 3.1 goals per game. On the other hand, the Hawks give up just 1.9 gpg here at Chicago, where they're 24-13. With or without Crawford, they figure to be the stingier team tonight. The Hawks have a few days off after this and then head out on the road. With a 3/11 loss at Dallas still fresh in their memories, I expect this well-coached team to bounce back with its best effort. 9* annihilator |
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03-22-16 | Sabres v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Carolina. The Sabres have won both this season's meetings but I expect the Canes to get some payback this evening. It should be noted that both earlier meetings were at Buffalo while tonight's game is being played at Carolina. That's noteworthy as the Canes are brutal (14-23) on the road and respectable (17-18) by comparison, here at home. While the Sabres are 7-13 (-3.4) off a loss by two or more goals, the Canes are a profitable 5-3 (+2.9) after having lost three or more consecutive games. While the Sabres are out of the playoff race, the Canes are still fighting to keep their hopes alive. Though they haven't been winning, they've been earning points in the majority of their games to stay within range. Currently, entering the new week, the Canes are seven points out of the final playoff spot, needing to pass three teams to get there. Needless to say, they can't afford to get swept by a non-playoff team like the Sabres, a team which is 1 for 31 on the power-play its last 10 road games. I say its "payback time." 10* Revenge GOY |
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03-21-16 | Flyers v. Islanders -138 | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. Off three straight losses, all on the road, the Isles figure to be extremely hungry tonight. They should also be thrilled to return home, where they're 21-12 on the season and where they outscore opposing teams by an average of 3.2 to 2.4. A look at the schedule shows that the Isles have played 12 of their last 14 on the road. They won their only two home games during that time. They also beat the Flyers, who are just 15-19 on the road, in this season's only meeting here, while splitting the games at Philadelphia. In fact, they've beaten the Flyers four straight times here. The Isles are 7-1 after playing their previous three on the road and 11-5 when coming off a loss by two or more goals. Prior to their current 3-game slide, the Isles had only lost three games in a row two other times this season. They were a perfect 2-0 the following game, winning by a combined score of 7-3. I like their chances of bouncing back again here. 9* Personal Favorite |
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03-20-16 | Coyotes v. Sharks -220 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. I won with the Sharks yesterday and am coming right back with them again today. While both teams played yesterday, the Sharks played an afternoon game here at SJ (4-1 win vs NYR) while the Coyotes played a night game (2-0 loss vs. TB) at Phoenix. With yesterday's loss, the Coyotes are just 4-12 (-6.7) their last 16 against teams with a winning record, 9-20 on the season. One of those wins came against these same Sharks, a few days ago. With the schedule in their favor, the revenge-minded Sharks, 23-13 (+9.1) when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, get some payback. 6* B.M. |
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03-19-16 | Devils v. Blue Jackets -145 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. This is the front end of a home-and-home series as the teams will meet again at NJ tomorrow evening. Knowing this, I expect the Jackets to go all out to "hold serve" on home ice, and to snap their current skid. The Devils get outshot by an average of 30.2 to 24.1 on the road, where they score just 2.4 goals per game. The Jackets aren't great at home but they do score 2.8 goals per game here, on 30.4 shots. They've dominated the Devils this season, outscoring them by a combined 11-3 margin in going 3-0. I expect them to continue that domination for at least one more night. 9* Personal Favorite |
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03-19-16 | Rangers v. Sharks -134 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The overall records are quite same. However, a closer look shows that SJ is better against "good" teams and NY is better against bad one. The Rangers are only 12-17 (-6.2) against teams with a winning record. The Sharks, on the other hand, are 14-7 (+6.8) against teams with a winning record, including 9-1 (+8) the last 10. Needless to say, they're playing better now than when NY beat them 4-0 early in the season. The Rangers get outshot 32.6 to 28.6 on the road, getting outscored 2.8 to 2.5. The Sharks, who score 2.9 gpg here, outshoot teams by a 32.3 to 25.3 margin here. The Sharks have won 60 of their last 100 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, 23-13 (+9.1) their last 36. Throw in a 12-6 record, when off a loss by more than a goal, and I say its Payback Time. 8* |
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03-18-16 | Bruins v. Ducks -145 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. The Ducks hammered the Bruins at Boston earlier and they swept them last season. Hungry for a win, I expect them to continue that recent series dominance tonight. The Bruins are a mediocre (and money-burning) 56-55 (-11.3) against teams with a winning record the past couple of seasons. During that same stretch, the Ducks are a solid (and profitable) 78-58 (+12) against teams with a winning record. They're also 30-20 the last 50 times that they were held to less than two goals in their previous game. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 7* |
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03-18-16 | Blackhawks -157 v. Jets | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Hawks typically aren't quite as good away from Chicago. However, their road record is still superior to Winnipeg's home record. Speaking of superior, the Hawks have the edge on both sides of the puck. Even after a loss last time out, their fourth straight, they're still 10-4 the last 14 times that they lost their previous three games. They're too talented and too well-coached to endure many extended losing streaks and I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. 8* Personal Favorite |
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03-18-16 | Predators v. Capitals -160 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. For as good as the Capitals have been, this price could easily be higher. The Preds are 18-19 on the road. The Caps are 27-8 at home. The Preds get outscored by an average of 2.7 to 2.5 away from Nashville. The Caps outscore teams by an average of 3.3 to 2.2 here at Washington. The Preds, who won 4-2 last night, are 3-7 (-5.6) when playing the second of b2b games and 7-13 (-12.8) when off a win by two or more goals. With the well-rested Caps at 16-4 when playing at home with a total of less than 5.5, there's only one way to go here. 7* |
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03-17-16 | Wild -150 v. Devils | 4-7 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Tough spot for the Devils, as this is their first game back home after a trip out West. Home ice doesn't mean much to NJ either. The Devils are below 500 here and get outscored by a 2.5 to 2.1 margin on home ice. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Minnesota, I expect the Wild to move to 12-9 (+1.2) when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. 7* |
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03-16-16 | Rangers v. Ducks -150 | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. The Ducks are off a dominating 7-1 effort last time out. Some teams might suffer a letdown, off that type of big win. However, the Ducks had lost their previous three. So, they aren't likely to have been patting themselves on the back for one win. They know they need to keep winning and that tonight's opponent will require their best game. It should be noted that the Ducks are an outstanding 65-27 (+32) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. It should also be mentioned that the Rangers will be without starting goalie Lundqvist, as Raanta is expected to be the starter. The Rangers swept the Ducks last season and they beat them at MSG earlier. With Anaheim at 59-39 (+11.6) the past few seasons, when playing with revenge, I say its "payback time." 8* Violator |
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03-16-16 | Avalanche v. Canucks OVER 5 | 3-1 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver/Colorado OVER the total. While we have to lay some extra juice to play at Over 5, I feel it will be worth doing so. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have produced a minimum of five goals. Four of those finished with more than five, including last month's 5-1 Vancouver win here, and two finished with exactly five. Most of those games had O/U lines of 5.5, which is probably where they should have set this one. The Canucks have seen 14 STRAIGHT games produce at least five goals, 10 of those topping the five mark. Even after some lower-scoring games of late, the Avs have still seen 12 of 14 games finish with at least five goals. BOTH teams should get AT LEAST a couple again tonight which will lead to another high-scoring affair. 8* |
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03-16-16 | Flyers v. Blackhawks -190 | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Flyers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Blackhawks lost 5-0 last game (their third straight loss) and they're none too pleased about it. This is a very talented team, one with a lot of pride. They don't get blown out like that too often, nor are they accustomed to losing streaks. They'll be highly motivated to bounce-back and I look for them to do so. The Hawks are 11-5 after allowing four or more goals and 10-3 the last 13 times that they had dropped their previous three games. They're 2-0 this season, after losing their previous three. They won those two games by a combined score of 10-3. Catching the Flyers off a game last night, I expect more of the same here. 6* B.M |
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03-15-16 | Bruins v. Sharks -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Bruins may be the league's best road team but I expect them to stumble tonight. The Sharks are better than their record inidicates and they've been putting it all together lately. They've won six of eight including a big win over Washington here last time out. I believe that was a momentum-building type of victory. They're now 8-1 their last nine against teams with winning records and I expect them to finally string together consecutive home wins tonight. 9* |
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03-15-16 | Kings v. Stars -120 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. While the Kings, who are off a big win at Chicago last night, have been pretty good overall when playing the second of b2b games, they'd did lose (4-2 at Anaheim on 2/28) their last time in that situation and I expect them to stumble again tonight. Note that LA is an ugly 57-73 (-28.8) over the years, off a shutout win. The Stars, who had the last two days off, are 12-3 when playing with two day's rest and 12-5 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. Looking to avenge an earlier loss at LA, I look for them to bounce back with their best effort tonight. 9* |
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03-15-16 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -218 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. If the Capitals hadn't lost two in a row, I might be more concerned that this was their first game back from a road trip out West. However, those losses, combined with the fact that Carolina beat them in the last meeting, should ensure we get a fully focused effort. The Caps, 13-6 when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, are 15-4 at home when the O/U line is less than 5.5. Carolina, on the other hand, is 19-47 (-24.2) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. The Canes get outscored by a 2.7 to 2.3 average on the road. The Caps outscore teams by a 3.3 to 2.2 margin here. Mismatch. 6* |
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03-14-16 | Devils v. Ducks -240 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. The Devils managed a win at LA, as a similar sized underdog, in their last game. They won't be so fortunate here. The Ducks, who will be extremely motivated after dropping three straight, are 11-1 their last 12 against teams with a losing record. They're also 12-2 this season when playing with two day's rest. With the Devils averaging only 2.3 gpg on the road and the Ducks allowing just 2.2 gpg at home. all signs points to a win for the home team. 6* BM |
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03-14-16 | Panthers v. Islanders -133 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
10* Islander. Analysis before 7am PST |
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03-13-16 | Maple Leafs v. Red Wings -195 | 1-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. While the price may seem steep, it could easily be higher. Both teams played yesterday. However, unlike Toronto, the Wings had the advantage of playing an early game and also they didn't have to travel. Note that the Leafs, who are dealing with a ton of injuries at the moment, are an awful 1-12 when playing the second of b2b games. They're even worse (1-19!) in division play this season. With a tough 4-game road trip on deck, the Wings know they can't afford to squander the two points available here. They beat the Leafs 4-0 here earlier and all signs point to another mismatch. 6* personal fav |
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03-12-16 | Flyers v. Panthers -155 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. These teams have split this season's meetings, the home team winning each time. The Flyers won 1-0 at Philly. The Panthers pounded them 7-1 here at Florida. With the schedule in their favor and back on home ice, I expect the Panthers to have the edge today. The Panthers, who had yesterday off, got back on track against Ottawa on Thursday, earning a 6-2 victory. Note that they're 14-5 (+9) off a win by two or more goals. Unlike their hosts, the Flyers played (3-1 win at Tampa) last night. Note that the Flyers remain with Voracek, one of their best offensive players, and that they've had trouble with Florida goalie Luongo, who has limited them to one goal each of the last three times he's faced them. Florida's Vincent Trocheck said this of Thursday's win: "We just needed a little bit more confidence in here. We're a young team. The confidence was a little bit down, so having a win like this, scoring that many goals, it definitely gets your confidence back up." With their confidence restored, the Panthers make it two in a row. 10* Eastern Conf. GOM |
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03-11-16 | Flyers v. Lightning -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Off b2b losses, the Lightning will be hungry tonight. Throw in the fact that the Flyers beat them in this season's only meeting (4-2 win this past Monday) and we should have an extremely motivated Tampa team. Lightning forward Brian Boyle said this of Monday's effort: "That's not who we are as a team. We don't show that very often if at all." Even with the recent losses, the Lightning are still 21-6 their last 27 games. As for the Flyers, even with their recent wins, they're still a sub .500 team against the moneyline. With TB at 25-11 (+8.7) its last 36 against sub 500 teams and at 8-0 its last eight as a host in this series, I see this one resulting in a win for the home team. 8* |
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03-10-16 | Sabres v. Canadiens -158 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Canadiens lost two games to the Sabres in the first half of February. Those games should provide them with some added motivation tonight. The Habs got back on track with a win over Dallas last time out. As disappointing as things are, they're still above .500 here at home. While the Sabres have some exciting young players, they're still averaging only 2.4 goals per game. While the Sabres are 27-57 (-11.8) the past few seasons, after allowing four or more goals, the Habs are 46-32 (+11) after scoring four or more. Payback time. 8* Annihilator |
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03-09-16 | Capitals v. Kings -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Capitals have been rolling for some time now. The Kings have recently started playing very well too though and I expect them to have the edge on home ice tonight. The Kings, who lost at Washington a few weeks ago, are a profitable 22-10 the last 32 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. They've had success against the Caps here at LA, including a 3-1 win here on Valentine's Day last season. Off their 5-1 win over the Canucks, note that the Kings are an impressive 18-4 (+9.9) when coming off a divisional game. Look for the Kings' best effort, as they improve on those stats and grab the important two points. 10* Personal Favorite |
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03-09-16 | Ducks v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Anaheim and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. This season's earlier meeting finished with a score of 3-0. This one figures to also be low-scoring. The Ducks are an extremely stingy team. In fact, they've allowed two goals or less in nine straight. Their games are only averaging 4.8 combined goals this season. Admittedly, the Avs haven't been nearly as good defensively as their guests. That said, they allowed just one goal last game, the second time in three games they've allowed two or less. Anaheim's last visit here finished with a score of 3-2, staying below the total of 5.5. This one should too. 10* Blue Chip |
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03-08-16 | Rangers -145 v. Sabres | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Sabres beat me in a shootout yesterday, I'm prepared to go against them again today. The Rangers lost 6-4 last time out which will have them hungry here. Unlike Buffalo, they had last night off. That's noteworthy as the Sabres are an ugly 11-33 (-11.8) the past few seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. The Rangers tend to take care of business against the league's weaker teams, particularly as the games become more important down the stretch. They're 10-2 their last 12 against losing teams and a commanding 41-12 (+22.6) against teams with a losing record, in the second half of the season, the past few years. Not surprisingly, they've dominated the Sabres. The price on them is always a lot more expensive on the Rangers (against Buffalo) than it is here, including -325 and -250 their last two last trips here. The Rangers won those game 3-1, outshooting the Sabres 43-25 and 2-0, outshooting them 33-20. More of the same here. 9* Personal Favorite |
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03-07-16 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -149 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Coyotes are off a 5-1 win. The Avs are off a 5-2 loss. Play on Arizona, right? Not tonight. Prior to Saturday's win, the Coyotes had lost seven straight, giving up 29 goals in the process. Its a little early to "trust" them. Note that the Coyotes are just 12-22 (-7.4) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals and 7-14 (-5.8) after a win by multiple goals. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Avs are a respectable 38-30 (+10.8) after allowing four or more and a commanding 39-20 (+22.3) off a loss by two or more goals. Throw in the fact that the Coyotes won both this season's meetings and we should have a very motivated Colorado team. The Avs were laying more than -200 when they hosted the Coyotes earlier. Tonight's price is far more reasonable and I believe its providing very fair value. 10* GOM |
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03-07-16 | Sabres v. Maple Leafs -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. Even when these teams are both having a bad season, as has been known to happen, there's still a rivalry between the Leafs and the Sabres. Buffalo's Evander Kane noted: "It's lights, camera, action in T.O. It's a fun place to play no matter if they're having a good season or not. I know Buffalo and Toronto have a bit of a rivalry." More often than not, in games played here at Toronto, the rivalry has been pretty one-sided in recent seasons. Indeed, the Leafs have won six straight here against the Sabres and 11 of the last 12. Looking to avenge an earlier loss at Buffalo and motivated to snap their current losing streak, I expect the Leafs to be a little hungrier tonight and for that to lead to a much-needed two points. 10* Div GOW |
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03-06-16 | Oilers v. Jets OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the OVER between Edmonton and Winnipeg. Five of these teams last six in the series have gone UNDER the number, including both this year, but I think the value has now clearly swung the other way as these two are poised to finally put the biscuit in the basket tonight. Following a brutal 1-8-2 stretch, the Oilers have started to show some life again, a victory at Buffalo on Tuesday was following by a win against Philadelphia on Thursday. Edmonton’s two game win streak came to an end in Friday’s 6-3 loss at Columbus though. Winnipeg looks to avenge a listless 3-1 loss at home to the Oilers on December 21st, but note that it has won five of the last six meetings overall in the series. The Jets are coming off a 4-2 win over the Habs on Saturday, it was the first time in eight games that they’d been able to hold an opponent to fewer than three goals. Note that Edmonton has seen the total go over in 14 of 24 after allowing four goals or more this year, while Winnipeg seen total go over in six of nine after playing three consecutive home games. 10* BEST BET OVER |
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03-05-16 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers -159 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams both just faced the Oilers. The Flyers lost 4-0 while the Jackets won 6-3. The problem for the Jackets is that they played last night while the Flyers had last night off. Throw in the fact that the Flyers will be looking to avenge a pair of December losses and we should have a more motivated team, as well as a fresher one. The Flyers are 11-7 (+5.3) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. 9* personal fav |
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03-04-16 | Devils v. Stars -220 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. This line may initially appear steep but it could easily be even higher. The Stars have a major talent advantage on offense. They score 3.2 goals per game here, while the Devils were averaging 2.2 on the road, entering Thursday's action. The Stars fire 33.6 shots at the net per game here. The Devils entered Thursday with an avg of only 24.2 shots per game on the road. The Stars are 10-3 (+5.9) when playing with two day's rest and they're catching the Devils in a b2b spot, off a hard-fought OT win at Nashville. Off four straight losses and looking to avenge an earlier loss at NJ, they'll be all business tonight. 6* B.M. |
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03-03-16 | Sharks v. Canucks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing Vancouver on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) With the Sharks favored on the money-line, we're able to get the extra 1.5 goals with the Canucks at a "relatively" reasonable price. Yes, I realize its still a bit steep. However, the value of an extra 1.5 goals in a hockey game is immense, particularly one which is expected to be close the entire way. These teams are in a bit of an odd scheduling situation here. They just faced each other here on 2/28 and they'll also face each other again at SJ on Saturday. That's three games against each other in less than a week, something you don't regularly see in the reg. season. Having already dropped the first contest - and knowing the next one is on the road - the Canucks should be going all out here. Note that they've played one game since the 2/28 game vs. the Sharks and it resulted in a 1-goal loss, a game where the 1.5 goals would have turned a loser into a winner. Three of the last seven meetings between these teams, including a 3-2 game in early March last season, have also been decided by a single goal. OT won't surprise. 6* B.M. |
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03-03-16 | Rangers v. Penguins -135 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Rangers are playing well right now but I expect their winning streak to come to an end here. The Pens should be extremely motivated. They lost their last game, at Washington, and need points. They were also blanked by the Rangers here a few weeks back. Additionally, it was the Rangers who knocked them out of the playoffs last season and the Rangers who have dominated them in recent seasons. Add it all up and we should be ensured of the Pens' best effort this evening. While they've played better on the road recently, the Rangers are still below .500 on the road and they're still just 10-16 (-7.6) when playing on the road when the O/U line was less than 5.5. The Pens, on the other hand, are a respectable 13-8 (+3.2) when playing at home when the O/U line was less than 5.5. The Pens have won nine of their last 11 games here and they've won their last two here by a combined score of 10-1. The Pens have had Melkin, who missed last month's game, back for a few games now and he scored last time. Time to finally get some payback against those pesky Rangers. 9* Personal Fav |
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03-03-16 | Flames v. Sabres OVER 5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Calgary/Buffalo OVER the total. For a Buffalo team looking to get its offense going, a visit from Calgary should be just what the doctor ordered. The Flames don't often see O/U lines of five. That's because their games are averaging a lot closer (5.8 gpg) to six goals than they are to five. When they play on the road, the Flames are allowing 3.3 gpg. They've given up AT LEAST two goals in 12 straight games, allowing an average of four during that stretch. Yikes. Not surprisingly, eight of those 12 games topped the total. Only three of those games had O/U lines of five. They finished with seven, eight and 10 goals. This season's earlier meeting produced seven goals, a 4-3 Flames win back in December. The most recent meeting here at Buffalo also finished with seven combined goals. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair this evening. 9* blue chip |
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03-02-16 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Montreal and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. These teams played here almost exactly one year ago to the day. That 3/4/15 game had an O/U line of five (instead of 5.5) and finsihed with a final score of 3-1. The previous meeting had a final score of 2-1. This one figures to be another low-scoring affair. The Ducks have allowed two goals or less in five straight games, allowing an average of just 1.4 gpg during that span. Admittedly, the Habs haven't been nearly as stingy; they allowed six goals in their last game alone. That said, prior to the debacle at SJ, they'd allowed just one in their previous game and three or less in five straight. They should be motivated to improve defensively tonight. In fact, some of you may recall that I also played on the Canadiens to finish Under the total the last time that they'd allowed six goals in their previous game. That 2/17 game (at Colorado) stayed below the number and I expect this one to do the same. *10 blue chip |
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03-01-16 | Avalanche v. Wild -150 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. These teams have split a pair of games at Colorado. The Wild won there back in October and the Avs won there in December. The Wild won the lone meeting here at Minnesota though and I expect them to have the edge again tonight. Minnesota blanked the Avs in the game here and figures to have the defensive advantage once again. Colorado gets outscored by a slight 2.8 to 2.7 margin on the road. Minnesota outscores teams by a 2.7 to 2.3 score here at home. The Avs bolstered their lineup before the trade deadline and the additions may well help them in the long run. Losing a tough one in the Stadium Series figures to sting though and I expect there to be some lingering negative effects from that game tonight. The Wild have been mired in a terrible slump for much of 2016. They won last game and now have victories in five of their last eight. A win (in regulation) here and they'll jump Colorado in the standings and into the second wild card spot. I expect them to do just that. 9* Personal Fav |
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02-29-16 | Red Wings v. Stars -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Wings have won two straight while the Stars have dropped two straight. In some cases, that might point us towards a play on Detroit. I don't think this is one of those. The back-to-back losses figure to make the Stars angry, particularly as they both came on home ice. In fact, the Stars have lost three straight here. Note that the Wings are off an exciting late win at Coors Field on Saturday, which could be a little more cause for a letdown than a "regular" game. Also, note that the Wings had been winning before they faced the Stars earlier in the season, at Detroit. Dallas jumped all over them in that game though and ended up winning 4-1. While the Wings would obvioulsy like to avenge that loss, note that they're a money-burning 25-35 (-13.6) the last 60 times they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The Wings are 3-5 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Stars are 19-10 at home with an O/U line of 5.5. While the Wings get outscored by an average of 2.7 to 2.4 on the road, the Stars outscore teams by an average of 3.3 to 2.7 here at Dallas. The Stars didn't play badly last game, a 3-2 loss vs the Rangers. In fact, the result might well have been different if a controversial goal (non-goal?) wasn't disallowed mid-way through the third period. They're still 20-10 here at Dallas though and this is their only home losing streak this season. The Wings have dominated the Stars here in recent seasons, a fact that Dallas is well aware of. They know a win tonight snaps both their home losing streak and their home losing streak against the Wings. I expect them to go all out and I expect that to lead to them coming away with the two points. 10* GOM |
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02-28-16 | Capitals v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. When an elite team is struggling, sometimes it takes a visit from another top team to provide a "wake up call." That's what I expect to happen for the defending champs this afternoon. Yes, the Caps are having a great season. They'll be without their top-scoring defenseman today though and when properly motivated, the Hawks can beat anybody when playing on home ice. The Hawks, who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss (and one from last year's Winter Classic) will receive a boost with the acquisition of Ladd and co. I expect their best effort to lead to two points. 10* Breakfast Club. |
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02-27-16 | Rangers v. Stars -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas. The Stars are off a home and home series against the Jets. They won the game at Dallas but followed it up with a 6-3 loss at Winnipeg. Not surprising really, as they're much better at home, where they're 20-9. The Rangers are another team which is MUCH better at home and they already hammered the Stars at MSG in the first week of January. The Stars are 13-8 in the "revenge" role though and an even better 11-2 (+8.9) off a loss by two or more goals. I like their chances of bouncing back here. 10* Personal Fav |
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02-26-16 | Sabres v. Sharks -235 | 3-1 | Loss | -235 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. At first glance, the price on the Sharks seem steep. Many bettors staunchly refuse to play games in this price range. That's totally fine. For me, however, "expensive" is a relative concept. To some, dropping $40K on a brand new car might seem "expensive." However, if someone was shopping for a car in that price range and that they believed that the true cost was actually $60K, then that car would seem like a "bargain." On that note, consider that the Sharks were laying -350 the last time that they hosted Buffalo. The time before that? -420! The fact that the Sabres won both those games, combined with the fact that SJ is coming off a loss, should ensure that we get the Sharks' best effort here. Still with a considerable talent edge, that "best effort" should be all it takes for the Sharks to come away with an important two points. 6* B.M |
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02-25-16 | Senators v. Canucks -105 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. I backed the Canucks in their last game, a 5-1 win over Colorado. The offense got back on track and they got a great game from their goaltender. The losing streak now in the past, I expect them to build off that victory and make it two in a row tonight. While the Sens are off a 4-1 win, they're only 29-45 (-19.4) the past few seasons, after scoring four goals or more in their previous game. While they've lost back-to-back games at Ottawa, the Canucks have won six of the last seven meetings here at Vancovuer. A look at the last six meetings here reveals that the Canucks were laying anywhere from -138 all the way to -270. Tonight's price is far better and I believe its offering excellent value. 10* best bet |
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02-24-16 | Sabres v. Ducks -234 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ANAHEIM. Yes, the price is high. However, it could easily be - and should be - higher. The Ducks have five straight. They've scored 24 goals during that 5-game streak, five or more in each of their last four. A slow start to the season a distant memory, the Ducks have been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks. One thing thats not so distant a memory is a 3-0 loss at Buffalo in mid-December. The Ducks were struggling at the time, mired in a stretch that saw them lose four of five. They outshot the Sabres 44-22 but Johnson was hot in goal for Buffalo. (Lehner is expected to go tonight.) The December loss should ensure that the Sabres receive Anaheim's full attention here. The Ducks are 58-37 (+13.4) the past few seasons when playing with revenge. During that stretch, they're also 62-27 (+28.9) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. While the Sabres are 4-9 when playing with two day's rest, the Ducks are 10-2. All signs point to a win for the home team. 6* B.M. Beatdown |
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02-24-16 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. The Avs gave up five goals last time out, a 5-1 loss at Vancouver. I had the Canucks for that game, so the result worked just fine for me. It also sets this one up nicely, as the Avs typically follow up a bad loss with a low-scoring game. In fact, the UNDER is 13-7-1 when they've allowed four or more goals in their previous game and 12-4-1 off a loss by two or more goals. Even with the result at Vancouver, Colorado games are averaging 5.2 the past five. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 9* |
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02-24-16 | Penguins v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Boston to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. The game at Pittsburgh was high-scoring, a 6-2 win for the Bruins. The game here at Boston, however, was not. The Bruins won by a score of 3-0. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. While they have seen their past three games finish above the total, the Pens are banged-up and missing some key offensive players. Malkin, the most important of those, remains out. Note that the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that Pittsburgh had seen its previous three games finish above the total. Boston gave up six goals last time out, its third "really bad" (more than five goals) defensive game in February. After the previous two games, the Bruins allowed just two and one goal, most recently winning 2-1 after losing 6-5 the previous game. I expect a much better defensive effort here, the UNDER improving to 5-1 when the Pens played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. 10* |
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02-24-16 | Canadiens v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Montreal and Washington to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. Both games had O/U lines of five. Both games finished with five or less goals, 3-2 at Montreal and 3-1 here at Washington. Yet, tonight we're getting an O/U line of 5.5 instea of five. While it may not sound like much, I believe thats providing us with excellent value. The Under is 6-1-1 the last eight meetings in the series, 4-0 here at Washington. The Caps, who allow 2.2 gpg here, have seen the Under go 8-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 9* |
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02-23-16 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings -189 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Wings badly need a victory and this game sets up perfectly for them to get one. Not only do they get to host a relatively weak Columbus team, they also have the schedule in their favor. While the Wings had yesterday off, the Jackets are off a 6-4 win over the Bruins. Note that the Jackets are a poor 7-17 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The Wings have four far more diffcult games (two against Chicago) on deck, before they face these same Jackets at Columbus on 3/8. Armed with this knowledge, they know its imperative to take care of business tonight. They will. 7* B.M. |