Ben Burns NHL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-14 | Ottawa Senators v. Washington Capitals -128 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -128 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
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01-20-14 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Phoenix Coyotes -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
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01-20-14 | Dallas Stars v. Nashville Predators -125 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
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01-20-14 | Philadelphia Flyers v. NY Islanders -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
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01-20-14 | Philadelphia Flyers v. NY Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
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01-19-14 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks -151 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
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01-19-14 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
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01-18-14 | Calgary Flames v. Vancouver Canucks -202 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
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01-18-14 | Anaheim Ducks v. St. Louis Blues -140 | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
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01-17-14 | Anaheim Ducks v. Chicago Blackhawks -129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
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01-16-14 | New Jersey Devils v. Colorado Avalanche -143 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
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01-16-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
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01-16-14 | Detroit Red Wings v. NY Rangers -150 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
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01-15-14 | Buffalo Sabres v. Toronto Maple Leafs -163 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
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01-14-14 | Calgary Flames v. Nashville Predators -181 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
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01-13-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under. Analysis to follow.
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01-12-14 | New Jersey Devils v. Toronto Maple Leafs -131 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
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01-11-14 | Detroit Red Wings v. Los Angeles Kings -180 | 3-1 | Loss | -180 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
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01-10-14 | St. Louis Blues v. Vancouver Canucks +100 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
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01-10-14 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Washington Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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01-09-14 | Boston Bruins v. Los Angeles Kings -126 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
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01-08-14 | Ottawa Senators v. Colorado Avalanche -141 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
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01-07-14 | Minnesota Wild +1.5 v. Los Angeles Kings | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
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01-06-14 | Florida Panthers v. Montreal Canadiens -180 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
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01-06-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. NY Rangers -151 | 4-3 | Loss | -151 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
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01-05-14 | San Jose Sharks v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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01-04-14 | Washington Capitals v. Minnesota Wild -130 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
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01-02-14 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Colorado Avalanche -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
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01-02-14 | Buffalo Sabres v. Minnesota Wild -185 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
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01-01-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Vancouver Canucks -152 | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
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12-31-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
I`m playing on Philadelphia and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. The Flyers have been a very profitable Over team this month. Off a 4-3 win last night, I expect that to change tonight.
This will be just the fourth time in the past six weeks that the Flyers will be playing the second of back-to-back games. The UNDER was a perfect 3-0 in the previous three instances, final scores of 2-1, 3-2 and 2-1. Unlike the Flyers, the Flames have been a profitable UNDER team this month, 10 of 13 December games dipping below the total. They haven`t scored a single goal in either of their last two games, both 2-0 losses. Another low-scoring affair won`t surprise. 9* |
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12-31-13 | Buffalo Sabres v. Winnipeg Jets -166 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
I`m playing on WINNEPEG. The Sabres won when these teams faced each other two weeks ago, at Buffalo. With today`s rematch being played at Winnipeg, I expect the Jets to return the favor.
Even with the loss at Buffalo, the Jets have quietly gone 10-5 (+6.6) in non-conference games. That`s a lot better than the Sabres` 4-10 (-2.8) mark. The Jets are off back to back wins, outscoring a pair of quality teams by an 8-5 margin. Playing with recent revenge, I expect them to keep on rolling to close out the year. 7* |
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12-30-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago and LA to finish UNDER the total. The Hawks have been in a number of high-scoring games recently. Facing the stingy Kings, I expect that to change this evening.
LA games are averaging only 4.8 goals on the season. When the Kings play on the road, that average dips all the way down to 4.5. Not surprisingly, when on the road, the Kings usually see O/U lines of five, not 5.5. When the Kings do see O/U lines of 5.5, the UNDER has gone 4-2 the last six and 9-3 the last 12. The Hawks gave up six goals last time out and surely can't be pleased about it. I expect an emphasis on improved defense. The last time the champs had a similar defensive breakdown was a 7-3 loss at Toronto on 12/14. After giving up the seven goals vs. the Leafs, the Hawks' next game came against these very same Kings. The result? A 3-1 Chicago win. In fact, the Hawks would allow just one goal in each of their next two games, going a 5-game stretch where they allowed only nine combined goals. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 9* |
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12-27-13 | NY Rangers v. Washington Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington and NY to finish UNDER the total. While we have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5, I believe it will prove worthwhile to do so. Both this season's meetings finished with five or fewer goals. The game at NY finished with a score of 4-1. The game here at Washington was a 2-0 final.
That result wasn't anything new for games here. These teams have met here 10 times since 12/28/2011. All 10 games finished with five goals or less, the UNDER going 7-0-3. Only one of the Rangers' last 14 visits here has finished with more than five combined goals. Considering that they've seen the UNDER go 4-0 this season (1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games OR that they're managing only 2.1 goals per game on the road, I won't be surprised if we see another relatively low-scoring affair. 7* |
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12-27-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. New Jersey Devils -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. These teams have met twice so far this season. The Blue Jackets won both of those games. Both those games were at Columbus though and the Devils weren't playing well entering either meeting.
The most recent meeting was 12/10. The Devils lost 5-4, despite holding a 34-23 edge in shots. At the time, they were in the midst of a stretch where they lost five of six games. Tonight's rematch is at New Jersey and the Devils are now playing better. While they lost at Chicago last time out, they still won three of their last five, two of three at home. It should be noted that the Devils blew a 2-goal lead in the last meeting and that the five goals Brodeur allowed were a season high. Additionally, it should be mentioned that there was some "controversy" in that game, the Devils believing they "got screwed." The Jackets' winning goal came with left than two minutes left. Brodeur believed that he was interfered with before the goal and the Devils believing that the Columbus player (Foligno) kicked it in. I mention the above, as I believe Brodeur and the Devils have had this game circled. Note that Brodeur has a 1.55 GAA in his career home starts vs. Columbus. The Devils outscore teams by an average score of 2.4 to 1.9 here at New Jersey. On the other hand, the Jackets get outscored by an average of 3.1 to 2.6 away from Columbus. The Jackets allow 31.5 shots per game on the road; the Devils allow 22.4 per game at home. Not surprisingly, the Devils have dominated the Jackets here over the years. They're 4-0 (3-0-1) with one tie. They're also 38-23 (+19.2) the past few seasons, when playing with revenge from an earlier loss. I believe the price is fair and I like them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* |
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12-23-13 | St. Louis Blues v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. The Blues have been on an "over" streak recently, each of their last three games producing six goals. I expect that run to come an end this evening though.
These teams met in early November, at St. Louis. That game finished with five combined goals, a 3-2 final. That was the identical score of the last meeting here at Calgary, although the Flames won instead of the Blues. Going back a little further finds that six of the last seven meetings have finished with five or fewer combined goals. True, the Blues have been potent offensively this season and of late. They're off a 6-0 win last time out. They're expected to be without their leading scorer tonight though; as Alexander Steen went down with an injury in that game, missing the third period. While not as profitable (yet) this season, the UNDER remains a lucrative 14-8 the Blues' last 22 road games with an O/U line of 5.5. While the Flames gave up some (4) goals last time out, that was at Pittsburgh and it was the final game of a road trip. The Flames' last home game was a 2-1 win. Going back further finds that the Flames have seen five straight home games finish below the total. Eight of the Flames' ten overall December games have fallen below the total. Throw in the fact the UNDER is 12-4-2 the past couple of seasons when the Blues were off a shutout win and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* |
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12-21-13 | Dallas Stars v. San Jose Sharks -197 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. Obviously, the Sharks are pretty expensive here. I believe the price is justified though.
Dallas goalie Kari Lehtonen is off a good game. However, before getting too excited, note that he was 2-3-1 with a 4.17 goals-against average in his previous six games and that he had allowed 10 goals in his previous two starts. Also, keep in mind that he's 5-7-1 with a 3.54 GAA in 13 starts. While the Stars have had some success against the Sharks at Dallas, they haven't fared well here at San Jose. The Sharks are 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in the series, outscoring the Starts by a commanding 26-11 margin in those games. The Sharks are 11-1-3 at home on the season. A recent skid combined with the earlier loss at Dallas figures to have them extremely motivated here. I expect them to take care of business. 6* |
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12-21-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Columbus to finish UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other at Philadelphia, on Thursday. The Flyers rallied for a 5-4 win in that game. With the venue switching to Columbus, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair.
The last five times that the Flyers played here, the UNDER was a perfect 5-0/100%. Those games had scores of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-1 and 2-2. Five of the last eight games at Columbus have finished with five or fewer combined goals, including three of the last five. Opposing teams were blanked in two of those games. I look for the Jackets to be much stingier here, the final combined score finishing at five or less. 10* |
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12-20-13 | Florida Panthers v. Winnipeg Jets -147 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The Panthers come in as the much hotter team. I believe the Jets are favored for good reason though.
The Panthers are 3-0 on their current road trip, after winning last night at Ottawa. While they deserve credit for those victories, this will be the first time that the Panthers played the second of back-to-back games since they lost 6-2 on 12/8. They're just 7-13 their last 20 in that situation. Having already over-achieved on their current trip and knowing they return to sunny Florida after this, I believe it will be easy for the Panthers to get caught thinking ahead to the return trip home. While they've had some recent success against Eastern Conference teams, the Panthers are just 11-23 (-10.8) against Western Conf. opponents the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Jets are 17-15 (+3.1) against Eastern Conf. teams, including 9-5 (+5.6) their last 14. The Jets lost 4-2 on 12/17. They were playing the second of b2b games in that one though and they've since had the past two days off. Note that the Jets, who have since had two days off, are a lucrative 20-12 (+8.6) the past couple of seasons, off a loss by two or more goals. The fact that the Panthers beat the Jets a couple of weeks ago at Florida figures to provide the Jets with some added motivation here. Note that the last series meeting here at Winnipeg resulted in a 7-2 win for the Jets. Ultimately, I look for the Jets to be the "hungrier" team. Throw in the fact that they're playing on home ice and that they have a scheduling advantage and I look for them to find a way to come away with two points. 10* |
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12-20-13 | Washington Capitals v. Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. While I respect the Capitals' offense, for a game at Carolina, I believe that an O/U line of 5.5 is generous.
Games here are averaging only 4.6 goals this season. The Canes have allowed three or fewer goals in seven of their last eight games. The only time, during that stretch, that they allowed more was when playing on the road, in a back-to-back situation. Their last two games had final scores of 3-1 and 2-1. The Caps, who last played Tuesday, have seen the UNDER go 19-9-3 the past couple of seasons. During that time, the Canes, who last played way back on Saturday, have seen the UNDER go 6-1 when playing a game with three or more day's rest. The last three meetings between these teams have had scores of 3-1, 3-2 and 4-1. I look for this one to also finish with five goals or less. 9* |
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12-19-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. St. Louis Blues -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
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12-19-13 | Nashville Predators v. Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
7* Analysis before 11am PST
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12-19-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
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12-18-13 | Ottawa Senators v. New Jersey Devils -117 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Both teams are off victories. Neither have won consecutive games for some time and both will be hungry to do so. While the Senators have had the recent advantage in the series, I favor the Devils here.
The Devils are expected to have Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The future Hall-Of-Fame goalie hasn't been getting as much playing time as he would like. Off a shutout in his last game, Brodeur is getting the call here. I expect another strong effort, as he looks to show he's still worthy of getting the majority of the starts. (Note that I do like Schneider as a goalie, as well.) Note that the Devils are 23-11 (+14.) the last 34 times that they were off a win by more than a goal. These teams have met here nine times since the start of the 08/09 season. While the Sens did win the most recent two, the Devils had previously dominated the series here. A look at those nine games shows that the Devils were never less than -135 and that they were laying as much as -245. We're getting them at a much better rate here and I believe that's offering very fair value. 8* |
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12-17-13 | Washington Capitals v. Philadelphia Flyers -122 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams just faced each other at Washington, on Sunday. The Capitals trailed 4-1 in the third period but rallied to win 5-4. With this evening's rematch being played at Philadelphia, I expect the revenge-minded Flyers to have the advantage.
The Flyers aren't just looking to avenge Sunday's loss, they also haven't forgotten that the Caps embarrassed them here by a score of 7-0 in early November. Needless to say, they should be extremely motivated. Even with Sunday's loss, the Flyers are still 7-5 (+3.4) the last dozen times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. While they've been hot lately, the Caps are still only 6-8 on the road. Even with the November loss, the Flyers are 24-12-2 over the years, as a host in this series. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
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12-17-13 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Montreal Canadiens -119 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Canadiens have dominated the Coyotes over the years. With this game being played at Montreal, I expect them to continue that series dominance this evening.
The Canadiens are 11-9 at home, outscoring teams by an average margin of 2.5 to 2.2. The Coyotes, who have been playing without captain Shane Doan, are 8-9 on the road. They're getting outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.8 in those games, getting outshot by an average of 35.2 to 29.8. While the Canadiens admitted to being "tired" after their last game, they had yesterday off and are playing back-to-back home games, meaning they didn't have to travel. I expect them to be re-energized. Since the Coyotes relocated to Phoenix, the Habs are 12-2 with four ties against them. All things considered, I feel this price is more than fair. 8* |
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12-17-13 | Washington Capitals v. Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Washington to finish UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other at Washington, on Sunday. The Capitals trailed 4-1 in the third period but rallied to win 5-4. I expect this evening's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring.
The Flyers have seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 off a division game and 7-3-2 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They've also seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 the last eight times that they gave up four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the Caps have seen the UNDER go 7-3-1 after they gave up four or more goals in their previous game AND 9-5-1 after scoring four or more. Overall, games here are averaging only 4.6 combined goals this season. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 9-4-2 here on the season, including a 5-2 mark when the O/U line was 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* |
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12-15-13 | Calgary Flames v. NY Rangers -190 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NY RANGERS. Off to an 0-4 start to their current home stand, the Rangers figure to be desperate (highly motivated) here. The Flames should provide them with a perfect opportunity to earn a victory.
While they won at Buffalo last night and have won a few lately, the Flames have still been pretty bad when playing on the road. They entered yesterday's game getting outscored by an average margin of 3.5 to 2.5 in games played outside of Calgary. While the Flames are off a hard-fought (OT) win yesterday afternoon, the Rangers have had the past two days off. Even with a recent win at Edmonton in that situation, the Flames are still only 5-10 the last 15 times that they played the second of b2b games. The Rangers have won two in a row in this series and I fully expect them to make it three straight here. 6* |
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12-14-13 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Toronto Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. Due in large part to the fact that the Hawks have been involved in high-scoring games recently and because the Leafs have been giving up quite a few goals, we're getting an O/U line of six to work with here, rather than 5.5. I believe that's providing us with excellent value.
When these teams met back in October, the line closed at 5.5u45. The final score was 3-1. This will be just the fourth time in recent seasons the Leafs have had an O/U line of six at home. All three previous games stayed beneath the number. The Hawks have only seen one road game the past couple of seasons have an O/U line of six. It also finished below the total. Needless to say, the Hawks can score. That said, I expect them to emphasize defense here. Defenseman Duncan Keith noted: "Our talk in the room is more about playing the right way, being good defensively, being hard on pucks, checking well." Rookie Antti Raanta has been solid in net for the Hawks. He's 5-0-1 with a 2.12 GAA, stopping 93% of the shots he's faced. I also expect the Leafs to emphasize improved defense: Defenseman Dion Phaneuf, the team captain will return from suspension today. He noted: "We don't have time to sit here and look at the past, we have to take care of the present and get back to playing the way we have to play to win hockey games." Note that the Leafs have seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 the last 10 times that they gave up four or more goals in their previous game. As for the Hawks, they've seen the UNDER go 18-13-1 the past 2+ seasons when playing with two day's rest. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 8* |
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12-14-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. NY Islanders +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS at +1.5 goals. (On the Puck-Line.) As usual, we have to lay a pretty steep price to get the extra +1.5 goals. While I realize that's not everyone's cup of tea, I feel thats where the best value lies here. That may sound strange for a line this high. However, I believe it could easily be higher.
The Isles have indeed struggled lately and on the season in general. They're back home now though and I expect a much better effort. Note that they've only played four home games the past 3+ weeks and three of those resulted in 1-goal losses. Over the past month, they're 1-5 here. However, they'd be 5-1 if getting +1.5 goals in each. In fact, a closer look shows that they'd be 14-2 here on the season, if getting +1.5 goals in each of those games. That's a pretty big difference from 5-11! As for the Habs, they're off back-to-back losses, getting outscored by a combined 8-1 mark. Prior to that they'd won four consecutive 1-goal games. In other words, they'd be 0-6 if laying -1.5 goals in each of their last six. Note that Montreal is only 13-21 (-13.5) against the money-line the past few seasons after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. I feel the Isles have an excellent shot at the outright win and I expect AT LEAST a "cover." 5* |
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12-12-13 | Dallas Stars v. Nashville Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas and Nashville to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that it will be worth doing so.
The Predators got back on track defensively last time out, winning 4-1. That resulted in a "push" though, as the O/U number was five. That's been the case for four of their last five games, including each of their last three at home. For the season, the Preds are averaging only 2.2 goals per game here. Games at Nashville have averaged 5.1 goals on the season. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Looking at a few other stats and we find that the Preds have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were off a win by two or more goals and 20-8-5 the past 2+ seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Stars figure to be motivated to improve defensively, as they were lit up for six goals by the Black Hawks last time out. Note that they allowed only one goal in their previous game and that they'd allowed three or fewer goals in six straight games, prior to the Chicago loss. Over the past couple of seasons, the UNDER is 20-12 when the Stars had allowed four or more goals in their previous game and 18-14 when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 10* |
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12-11-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. Both teams enter off high-scoring games. However, I'm expecting a lower-scoring contest this evening.
After giving up five goals in back-to-back games, the Flyers, who average only 2.3 goals per road game, should be determined to improve defensively. Even factoring in last game, they've still seen the UNDER go 4-1-1 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The UNDER is also 4-2-3 when they've faced a Western Conf. opponent. With their top goalie (Crawford) out with an injury, the Hawks figure to try and limit the number of shots they allow. Last night, they allowed a mere six shots through the first 30 minutes of the game. Goalie Antti Raanta eventually did get tested, turning in a solid performance. Defenseman Michael Kostka said this of Raanta: "He played great." Meanwhile, Marc Emery figures to get the call for the Flyers and he should be highly motivated to face his former team. Note that Emery went 17-1-0 with a 1.94 goals-against average in 21 games for Chicago last season. Overall, the Flyers have seen the UNDER go 16-10-4, including 4-1 against teams with a winning record. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 9* |
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12-10-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Washington Capitals -143 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Capitals are off back-to-back wins, outscoring their opponents by a 9-3 margin. They've now won four of five. Facing a team they have dominated here, I expect them to keep on rolling for another day.
While the Caps are heating up, the Lightning are finding life without Stamkos to be difficult. They've lost three of their last four and also five straight on the road. In their last three losses, the Lightning have only managed a single goal. The Lightning are now 17-29 (-7.4) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Meanwhile, the Caps are 30-19 (+4.5) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that time, the Caps are also 24-14 (+9) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. While they're just 1-6 their last seven visits to Tampa, the Caps are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Lightning. I feel the line is fair and that the Caps have an excellent shot at another victory. 7* |
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12-09-13 | NY Islanders +1.5 v. Anaheim Ducks | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NY ISLANDERS on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) Recent results have worked in our favor here, giving us a very reasonably priced line on the Isles at +1.5 goals.
Its true that Ducks have been much better than the Isles this season AND that they're currently the much hotter team. That's why we're able to get the Isles at this price though, instead of laying in the -200 range, like we'd normally have to do. I believe that's providing us with solid value. For starters, I believe the Isles are more talented than their record indicates. I also believe that the Ducks may be patting themselves on the back a little, having just returned home off road wins at St. Louis and Chicago - two of the league's best teams. A closer look at the Ducks' recent games shows that three of their last four have been decided by a single goal. Going back further finds that the Ducks have only won four of their last 13 games by more than a goal. As for the Isles, they've seen two of their last four decided by a single goal. They'd be 7-5 their last 12 games, if getting +1.5 goals in each of those. NY coach Jack Capuano had this to say: "I know what our record is, but it's not like we're getting dominated in these games |
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12-06-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Calgary Flames UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Colorado and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. The Avalanche got embarrassed last night, giving up eight goals. That was their worst defensive performance in years and doesn't figure to sit well with their coach, Patrick Roy. Roy was quoted saying: "...we knew as a team that would be very dangerous if we just exchange chances with them. We just played into their game tonight. That's all. And we need to learn from it."
Prior to last night's debacle, the Avs had seen four straight games produce five or fewer combined goals. For the season, Colorado road games are averaging 4.8 goals. As for the Flames, they've seen back to back games (and three of four) finish with five goals or less. While they did score four goals (4-1 win) last time out, note that the UNDER is 17-6-3 the past few seasons, when they'd scored four or more goals in their previous game. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 9* |
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12-06-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. New Jersey Devils -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Both teams lost last time out. The Wings saw their winning streak snapped, losing 6-3. The Devils dropped their second straight, a 4-3 setback vs. Carolina. I expect it to be the Devils who bounce back here.
Over the past couple of seasons, the Devils are a respectable 20-15 (+5.8) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. During the same stretch, the Wings are an awful 13-22 (-16.5) after giving up four or more goals. The Wings are dealing with some key injuries and it finally caught up with them in the third period of their last game - they had originally been up 3-1 before giving up five unanswered goals. Don't expect the Devils to show them any sympathy here. 10* |
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12-05-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Nashville Predators -128 | 5-2 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Having lost the first three games of their current 4-game home stand, the Predators should be extremely hungry here. I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed win.
Off a 3-1 loss vs. Vancouver, note that the Preds are 16-11 (+5.5) the past couple of seasons, when off a loss by two or more goals. During that stretch, they're also 18-8 (+11.8) when off a game in which they scored one goal or less. Off a 4-1 win at Washington, note that the Canes are only 6-14 (-7) the last 20 times that they were off a win by two or more goals. During that time, they're also 8-16 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and an awful 7-26 (-19.6) when off a divisional game. Throw in the fact that the Preds have always dominated the Canes here and I'm expecting a win for the home team. 9* |
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12-05-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Tampa Bay Lightning UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Ottawa and Tampa to finish UNDER the total. The Senators have been involved in some high-scoring games lately, most recently a 4-2 win at Florida a couple of nights ago. I believe those results have helped to provide us with plenty of value.
Yes, the Sens have seen a few games top the total. However, the Lightning have been the opposite of late. In fact, they've been blanked in each of their last two games and have now been shutout in three of their last five. (Those five games have seen a mere 16 combined goals scored.) Playing without their top scorer doesn't help matters. While the Lightning have seen the UNDER go 5-1-1 the last seven times that they were off a game in which they scored one goal or less, the Sens have seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were off a game in which they won by two or more goals. I expect those stats to improve here. 9* |
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12-04-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. New Jersey Devils +100 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. These teams just met two nights ago at Montreal. The Devils had a significant edge in shots in that game, but came up short. With the rematch being played at New Jersey, I look for the revenge-minded Devils to settle the score.
While they're hot right now, the Habs are still just 8-13 (-4.8) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. The Devils have long been at their best when looking to avenge an earlier loss. In fact, they're 36-21 (+19.2) in that situation the past couple of seasons, 8-5 (+4.4) their last 13. Prior to Monday's loss, the Devils had won back-to-back games. They're 24-7-3 as a host in this series over the years and I look for them to bounce back with a win. 9* |
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12-03-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Washington Capitals -160 | 4-1 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Hurricanes won here earlier in the season. Tonight, however, I expect home ice to prove significant.
The Caps are currently the hotter team. They've won two in a row. The Canes, on the other hand, have dropped two straight. The Caps are 9-6 here on the season. They've outscored opposing teams by a 3.0 to 2.8 average margin here. Meanwhile, the Canes are 4-7 on the road. They've been outscored by an average score of 3.5 to 2.5, when playing away from Raleigh. Lack of power play scoring has really hurt Carolina. The Canes were 0 for 6 on the p.p. last time out and are now 3/41 their last 13 games. The Canes are being outscored by an average of 2.8 to 2.2 in divisional games. Conversely, the Caps are outscoring divisional foes by an average score of 3.2 to 2.1. The Canes are 3-10 (-6.7) when facing a team with a winning record. They're 17-30 in that situation the past couple of seasons. The Caps are 10-5 (+3.6) against teams with a losing record. They're 35-23 (+7) in that situation the past couple of seasons. I expect them to finish on top once again. 7* |
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12-02-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Minnesota Wild -145 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Wild have fared pretty well against teams from the Eastern Conference. They're 8-5 (+2.3) against non-conference foes. For the most part, they've also taken care of business against sub-500 teams. They're 9-4 (+4) against teams with a losing record vs. the money-line. Playing at home and desperate to snap their current skid, I look for them to get it done tonight.
While the Flyers are 5-7 on the road, the Wild are 10-5 here at Minnesota. At home, the Wild are outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 to 1.9. On the road, the Flyers being outscored by a 2.3 to 2.2 average. Despite coming up short last time out, the Wild did play well. Coach Yeo noted: ''That's a huge point for us. We lost the skill competition at the end of the game, the shootout, whatever you want to call it. Bottom line I really believe we deserved the win in regulation.'' I expect the Wild to bring their A-game tonight, en route to a much needed two points. 8* |
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11-29-13 | New Jersey Devils v. Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5 | 5-2 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NJ and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. These teams just played a fairly high-scoring game at Carolina, two nights ago. The Canes won 4-3. I expect today's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring. Prior to Thursday's game, the Canes had seen eight of their previous 10 games produced five goals or less. Meanwhile, the Devils had seen 11 of their previous 12 games finish at five or less. While NJ games are now averaging 4.6 goals overall, games here at Carolina are averaging a mere 4.2 goals. The normally stingy Devils have seen the UNDER go 3-1-1 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game, most recently a 3-0 shutout. More of the same here. 8*
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11-29-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Columbus Blue Jackets -151 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. This game sets up well for the home team. While the Oilers were busy beating up on Nashville last night, the Jackets had the day off. Note that the Oilers are only 1-3 when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Jackets, who are off a loss last time out, have alternated wins and losses for the past couple of weeks. With the Jackets motivated to avenge a recent 7-0 loss at Columbus, I expect that pattern to continue for another day. 8*
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11-29-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. Washington Capitals -110 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Canadiens come in as the hotter team. I expect the Capitals to be a little more hungry though. In addition to trying to snap their current skid, the Caps should have some extra motivation due to the fact that Montreal beat them here, one week ago and due to having given up six goals vs. Ottawa last time out. The Caps are 26-15 (+11.1) the past few seasons, after giving up four more goals. During that time, they're also 19-11 (+7.2) after a loss by two more goals. I expect them to bounce back with a big win. 9*
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11-29-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Philadelphia Flyers -136 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Flyers figure to be hungry here. After winning five of six, they've now dropped two straight. The last time that they were off b2b losses, they won three straight by a combined score of 11-3. The Flyers play with "revenge" here, as the Jets beat them at Winnipeg, a couple of weeks ago. Knowing that they head out on an extended road trip after this, I expect a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Flyers, as they bounce back with an important two points. 8*
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11-28-13 | Vancouver Canucks -110 v. Ottawa Senators | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The schedule favors the visitors here. The Canucks have had the last couple of days off, while the Senators are off a win at Washington.
While the Sens are playing on home ice, both these teams have actually been stronger on the road. The Canucks have a losing record at home but a winning one on the road. Meanwhile, the Sens are only 4-8 at home. They've been outscored by a 3.2 to 2.6 average here. The Sens have played back to back games a couple of times recently. They lost 4-1 vs. Carolina and 4-3 vs. Minnesota. In fact, they're already 0-4 in that situation this season, giving up a minimum of four goals in all four losses. The Canucks, who are 17-8 (+3.5) the last 25 times that they played with two day's rest, should be very hungry here. I expect them to come away with an important two points. 9* |
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11-27-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. San Jose Sharks -158 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The home team has dominated this series. The Kings won on home ice earlier this season. That marked the 13th consecutive time that the home team won in this series. While it won't last forever, I expect that streak to continue for at least one more game.
The 13-game series winning home ice streak includes all seven games in last year's playoffs. The Kings had home ice advantage in that series, meaning that they won Game 7. In other words, the Sharks still haven't had a chance to get any payback against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Needless to say, they should be highly motivated. The Sharks are 8-3 the last 11 times that they played with three day's rest in between games. During that time, they're also 18-7 (+7.2) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 7* |
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11-27-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Washington Capitals -138 | 6-4 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I successfully played against the Senators in their last game. While I don't mean to keep going against them, I believe that they're in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The Capitals have lost three straight, meaning the Sens should have their full attention. Note that they're 6-2 the past eight times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The only time that they were in that situation this season, they responded with a solid 4-2 victory. Off the Carolina loss, Ottawa coach MacLean said this of his team: "Right now, we don't play hard enough to win. We don't play long enough to win consistently |
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11-26-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Dallas Stars UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Anaheim and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Anaheim last month, the Ducks winning by a score of 6-3. I expect tonight's rematch to be significantly lower scoring.
Including last month's shootout, the "over" is 14-5-1 the last 20 times that the Ducks hosted the Stars. That includes a 4-1 "over" mark the last five meetings there. Games here at Dallas have been considerably lower-scoring though. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that the Ducks played here. Those games had scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-1 and 4-0. The Stars should be highly motivated to improve defensively and in between the pipes. In addition to the six they allowed in California last month, they also gave up six goals in their most recent game. Note that the UNDER is 20-11 the last 31 times that the Stars allowed four or more goals in their previous game. The last time they were in that position was after they gave up five goals vs. Chicago two weeks ago. They responded with a shutout in their next game, winning 3-0. The Stars, who have scored just five combined goals in their last three games, rank near the bottom of the league on the power play. In fact, only Florida is worse in that department. The Stars average only 2.5 goals per game at home, which is less than they score on the road. Meanwhile, the Ducks manage 2.5 goals per game on the road. That's a considerably lower average than they have at Anaheim. With the UNDER at 25-10 the last 35 times that the Ducks played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, I'm expecting a fairly tight-checking affair. 9* |
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11-25-13 | Minnesota Wild v. St. Louis Blues UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on St. Louis and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that it will prove worth it to do so.
Both teams are stingy defensively. Both have more than one very capable goalie. The Wild allow 2.3 goals per game. Ditto for the Blues. (That's tied for the 5th best mark in the league.) Note that seven of the last eight meetings between these teams finished with five or fewer goals. The Blues have seen the UNDER go 12-6 the past couple of seasons when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that time, the UNDER is also 7-4 when the Wild played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. True, the Blues exploded for six goals last time out. However, that doesn't mean we should expect them to do so again. Indeed, the UNDER is 17-6-5 the past 2+ seasons, after the Blues had scored four or more goals in their previous game. During that time the UNDER is also 22-12-6 when the Blues were off a win by two more goals. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair. 8* |
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11-24-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Carolina Hurricanes -111 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Both teams played yesterday. The Canes did so in the afternoon though while the Sens did so in the evening. Throw in the fact that the Canes are playing at home here and I feel they've got the schedule in their favor.
Carolina lost in OT at Boston yesterday but coach Muller still believes his team can gain some momentum from picking up the point at such a tough venue. He noted: "I think that's huge for us. Not too many teams are going to walk in here and get points the way they're playing. We battled through a little adversity earlier on, but I thought the guys played hard, played well, and that's a big point. We can kind of turn the corner and gain on and build on it Sunday." The Canes have dominated the Sens here over the years, going 9-0-1 the last 10 times that they were a host in the series. All things considered, I believe we're getting very fair value with the home team here. 9* |
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11-23-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Los Angeles Kings -147 | 1-0 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. The Avs have kept winning, despite without leading scorer Matt Duchene. Facing the stingy Kings, I expect his absence to catch up with them tonight.
The Kings are allowing an average of only 1.2 goals per game, their last five games. During that time, the Avs are allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game. The Avs don't always fare so well, when playing on the road, against these top defensive teams. They're just 9-13 (-2.7) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. During that time, the Kings are 38-23 (+3) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. Over the same period the Kings are 25-16 (+6.4) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season, the Kings scoring 15 goals in those games. Off a 2-1 loss, I expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight. 8* |
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11-23-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Phoenix Coyotes -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. This one sets up nicely for the home team. While the Ducks are off a hard fought OT win vs. TB last night, the Coyotes had last night off. The Coyotes have been excellent here and I expect them to be very hungry tonight.
The Ducks won both this season's previous meetings, which should give the Coyotes some added motivation here. Note that both those games were at Anaheim. Of course, the Coyotes also haven't forgotten that it was the Ducks who eliminated them from the playoffs last season. While the Ducks have lost four straight on the road, the Coyotes have won eight of nine at home. They have yet to lose in regulation here, going 9-0-2. Note that the Coyotes are also 4-1 against the Ducks here the past couple of seasons. I'd say some payback is in order. 8* |
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11-23-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Detroit Red Wings -133 | 4-2 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. While the Wings may not have Alfredsson available to go up against his former team, I still expect them to have the advantage this evening.
The Wings got back on track with a much-needed win last time out. The same can't be said for the Senators, who have dropped three straight. The Wings haven't forgotten that the Sens embarrassed them here by a 6-1 score on 10/23. (Prior to that, the Wings had long fared well against the Sens here.) Coach Babcock noted this after Detroit's victory on Thursday: "It was a good win for us. There were a lot of positives." Back on track and looking to avenge last month's debacle, I expect the Wings to get it done. 8* |
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11-22-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Vancouver Canucks -190 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks have cost me a couple of times on their recent skid. It hasn't been from poor play though. They should have a significant advantage on the ice tonight and I'm willing to give them another shot.
Vancouver coach Tortorelli isn't accepting losing to the league's lower tier teams and he should have the Canucks ready to go from the opening whistle. The fact that the Jackets beat them at Columbus last month figures to add even further motivation. Note that starting goalie Luongo is 6-1-3 with a 2.15 GAA in 10 home starts against the Jackets, while playing with Vancouver. While they came up short vs. Dallas (a game the Canucks dominated) the Canucks are still a lucrative 16-8 (+2.5) the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Jackets, who are playing without a couple of their top players, haven't won here in ages. I don't see it happening against a desperate and talented Vancouver team tonight. 6* |
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11-22-13 | Florida Panthers v. Calgary Flames -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALGARY. Admittedly, victories have been few and far between for the Flames. They've actually been quite competitive against teams from the Eastern Conference though and tonight figures to provide them with an excellent opportunity to give the home faithful something to cheer about.
The Flames know they can't afford to let this winnable opportunity slip by. They've got a break after this, followed by a hard game vs. Chicago and two on the road. In other words, this game offers their best chance - on paper - for a win, in the foreseeable future. After last night's 4-1 loss at Edmonton, note that Florida is now getting outscored by an average of 3.5 to 2.2 on the road, for the season. The Panthers, who are playing the final leg of a 5-game trip, have already picked up some points since leaving home. They shouldn't be quite as "desperate" as their hosts. The Panthers, who are thousands of miles away from home, surely can't wait to leave chilly Alberta. They played a single home game on 11/12. However, that was preceded by three straight on the road. A closer look reveals that this will be the 11th straight game that the Panthers played at a different rink than they played their previous game at. During that stretch, they've traversed the entire continent. I feel they could be a little road weary and could easily get caught looking ahead to getting out of the cold. (I just checked Weather dot com a second ago, roughly 10am Mountain time, and it claims that the temperature in Calgary feels like its 9 Fahrenheit, which is about -13 Celsius.) With the schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Flames to rise to the occasion with a rare win. 9* |
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11-22-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. Washington Capitals -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Canadiens are off a big 6-2 win. They don't always follow up a big win with another one though and I expect them to find the going tough tonight.
The Capitals didn't play well last time out, losing 4-0. They were red hot before that game though. They've been very good at responding to "bad" losses in recent years and I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort. The Caps are 19-10 (+8.5) the past couple of seasons, after a loss by two or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the Caps are also a lucrative 26-14 (+12.3) after allowing four or more goals, in their previous game. On the other hand, over the same period, the Canadiens are an ugly 10-18 (-10.7) when off a win by two or more goals AND a money-burning 8-21 (-15.9) after scoring four or more goals. With Montreal just 7-13 its last 20 road games with an O/U line of five or less, I feel the price on Washington is more than fair. 8* |
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11-21-13 | Florida Panthers v. Edmonton Oilers -137 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. Both teams have suddenly caught fire. Playing on home ice, I expect the Oilers to be the team which makes it three in a row.
The Oilers are a young team. However, they've got some talent, arguably more than the Panthers. While the Panthers eked out a 3-2 shootout win last time out, the Oilers won a 7-0. When factoring in that they scored the final four goals in a 4-2 comeback win over Calgary, the Oilers have suddenly outscore the opposition by a dominating 11-0 mark the last four periods. The Oilers already won at Florida and they've dominated the Panthers here. They've only won three games by more than one goal this season and they followed up each of the first two with another victory. I expect them to keep on rolling for another day. 8* |
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11-21-13 | Florida Panthers v. Edmonton Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Edmonton and Florida to finish UNDER the total. Both teams have suddenly caught fire. Improved defense and stellar goaltending has played a critical role.
The Panthers have allowed just three combined goals their last two games. Both of those finished below the 5.5 mark. Six of their last seven games have now finished with five or fewer goals. They average only 2.2 goals per game on the road. The Oilers allowed three goals in back to back games. That was followed by a game in which they allowed just two goals and that was followed by a shutout win. Even with the outburst last game, the Oilers are still averaging only 2.1 goals per game at home. The UNDER is 20-12 the past couple of seasons, when the Oilers played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. With both goalies suddenly in red hot form, I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* |
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11-19-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Los Angeles Kings -141 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Lightning in their last game and believe that this will be another good spot to do so.
The Kings are tough to score on at the best of times. In fact, they haven't given up a single goal in their last two games and they've given up a total of just six goals over their last six games. That task becomes even more difficult when playing without your top scorer, which is the case for Tampa. The Kings outshoot teams by a commanding 33.1 to 23.5 margin here at LA, outscoring them by an average of more than a goal per game. (While the Lightning do have a winning record on the road, they're actually getting outscored by a 2.4 to 2.3 average per road game.) The Kings are playing with "revenge" from a 5-1 loss at Tampa earlier. This well-coached team has played well when looking to avenge an earlier loss. I look for them to get some payback against their short-handed guests. 8* |
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11-19-13 | Florida Panthers v. Vancouver Canucks -210 | 3-2 | Loss | -210 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. I read the AP preview for this game and it starts by saying that the Panthers may be catching the Canucks at just the right time. I feel that the exact opposite is true.
Yes, I know the price is pretty steep but I feel it could easily be even higher. Not only do the Canucks have a major talent edge in this one, they'll also be extremely motivated, as they're desperate to snap their current 4-game skid. Last game, they dominated a streaking Dallas team, but lost 2-1. A disallowed goal - which should have counted - didn't help matters. Running into a hot goalie can do that in hockey. With Luongo up against his former team, the Canucks should also have the edge between the pipes here though. The Panthers are already 0-2 this month when playing with two day's rest in between games. They're 5-15 (-9.6) their last 20 in that situation. During that time, Florida is also a money-burning 9-20 (-10.6) against teams from the Western Conference. Not surprisingly, the Canucks have dominated them here over the years. Its been years since the Canucks lost five straight. I don't see it happening here. 6* |
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11-19-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Edmonton Oilers +101 | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Oilers haven't won a home game in ages. Tonight's matchup should provide them an excellent opportunity to change that.
Both teams have struggled but both are coming off victories. While both teams are hoping those wins will be "momentum-building" ones, I believe that Edmonton's victory will provide a bigger lift. Down 2-0 against archrival Calgary, four Oilers scored in the third period to give the Oilers a 4-2 win. Coach Dallas Eakins had this to say: "It gives you a spark, it gives the individuals some confidence scoring goals |
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11-18-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Pittsburgh Penguins -148 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Both these teams are talented. Both are good records. Both have struggled recently. I believe the Pens bring a little more to the table though. Playing on home ice, I look for them to be the team which bounces back to earn an important two points.
The Ducks have been hurt in the special teams department, particularly away from Anaheim. They haven't done an effective job killing penalties and their own power play ranks last in the league on the road, at just 6.5%. The Ducks are only 18-30 the past couple of seasons against winning teams. During that time, they're also 13-20 (-4.1) when playing a road game with an O/UI line of 5.5. Over the same period, the Pens are 31-14 (+6.4) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. While the Ducks are getting outscored by an average of 3.1 to 2.5 on the road, the Pens are outscoring teams by an average score of 3.1 to 1.8 here at home. All things considered, I feel the price is reasonable. 8* |
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11-17-13 | Dallas Stars v. Vancouver Canucks -150 | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The visitors come in as the hotter team. However, I expect the home team to be a little more "hungry." Recent results notwithstanding, I also believe the Canucks are the stronger squad. I look for a determined effort right from the opening face-off.
The Canucks have dropped three straight. The first two of those came on the road, the last here at home. Although only 4-4 here, they're outscoring teams by an average score of 2.5 to 2.2 here in Vancouver, outshooting them by a 35.6 to 26.2 average. The Canucks have gotten that "first game back home from a road trip" out of the way and they now have a stretch of games here at Vancouver. With Florida and Columbus on deck, they've got nothing to look ahead to. The losing streak should have them fully focused on the task at hand. The Stars could potentially be a little complacent and/or could get caught looking ahead to returning home. This is the final game of a road trip and they've already exceeded expectations on it. This will mark the 11th straight time that they played in a different rink than they did in their previous game. (They've gone home a couple of times, just never for more than a game.) Both teams play with two day's rest in between games. The Stars are 0-2 their last two in that situation, going 9-13 (-5.2) the past couple of seasons. On the other hand, the Canucks are 16-7 (+4) when playing with two day's rest, 3-1 their last four. The Stars are 1-5 their last six, after scoring four or more goals. They're 11-16 (-4.6) in that situation the past couple of seasons. During that time, the Canucks are 16-9 (+3.6) after scoring one or less. 8* |
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11-16-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Phoenix Coyotes -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Both these teams are off to excellent starts. Playing on home ice, I expect the Coyotes to be the team which continues its winning ways tonight.
The Lightning are 2-0 since Steve Stamkos went down with a broken leg. Give them credit for digging deep and getting it done without their best player. However, his loss will eventually be felt - and I expect that to be the case tonight. Phoenix goalie Mike Smith has been outstanding of late and is now 11-0-2 with a 2.01 goals-against average in his last 14 home starts. Smith should benefit from not having to face one of the league's top snipers. While the Lightning have been great against the West, the Coyotes have won seven straight at home. While the Lightning are only averaging 2.2 goals per game on the road, the Coyotes are averaging a whopping 4.0 at home. 7* |
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11-15-13 | San Jose Sharks v. Edmonton Oilers +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -179 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Edmonton at +1.5 goals. (Puck-Line). As you're likely aware, getting an extra +1.5 goals to work with in a hockey game is significant. A look at last night's board shows that four of seven games were decided by a single goal, including a 2-1 (OT) win by the Sharks over the Canucks.
Off that hard fought, emotional (and fortunate) win over rival Vancouver and with a date with the Stanley Cup champions on deck, I won't be surprised to see the Sharks suffer a bit of a letdown against the "lowly" Oilers. Those lowly Oilers should be hungry to get back on track though. While the Sharks were leaving it all on the ice at Vancouver, the Oilers had last night off. While the season has certainly gotten off to a disappointing start, I believe the Oilers are more talented than their record indicates. While they're currently on a 4-game skid, the Oilers remain a profitable 11-9 (+5.4) vs. the money line the last 20 times that they'd lost their previous three or more games. (Compared to their overall stats over the same period, those numbers are very good.) Including last night's result, the Sharks have now seen three straight games decided by a single goal. In fact, six of their last seven were decided by a single goal and the one that wasn't was a 2-goal loss. The Oilers, who have seen two of their last five decided by a single goal, lost by 1-goal each of the last two times that the faced the Sharks. I expect at least another "cover" tonight. 6* |
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11-15-13 | Nashville Predators v. Pittsburgh Penguins -209 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Both teams have struggled recently. Playing on home ice, I expect the Pens to be the team which turns it around tonight.
The Pens are arguably the most talented team in the league. Despite the recent losses, they're still getting strong goaltending. (Fleury has allowed two goals or less in 11 of his 15 starts and ranks among the league leaders with a 2.07 GAA.) Meanwhile, its only a matter of time before the potent Pittsburgh offense starts clicking again. Facing a struggling Nasvhille team which is playing without its #1 goalie should be just what the doctor ordered. The Preds have allowed 31 goals their past seven games, a minimum of three in each of those. Nasvhille coach Barry Trotz said this of his team's last effort: ''We were slow to the puck all night and they did a better job winning the 1-on-1 battles. We're going through a tough time |
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11-14-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. St. Louis Blues -148 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. While each are off a loss, these teams have both played well to start the season. Playing on home ice, I like the Blues to have the advantage for tonight's showdown.
These teams met three times last season. In each case, the home team won. The Blues were laying -225 for the game here at St. Louis, winning 3-1. Including last season's victory, the Blues are 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Avs, outscoring them by a 13-4 combined margin. With Tuesday's loss at Carolina, the Avs are now 9-12 the last 21 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. During the same stretch, the Blues were 28-14 (+5.1) when playing a home game with an O/U line of less than 5.5. As well as they've fared away from Colorado, I believe its worth noting that the Avs are being outshot by an average of 32.7 to 27.7 when playing on the road. Conversely, the Blues are outshooting teams by a 31.2 to 24.8 average margin here at St. Louis. Speaking of shots, the Blues were unfortunate to lose their last game, outshooting Phoenix by a 37-18 margin. I like them to bounce back with a big effort. 8* |
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11-13-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Minnesota Wild -150 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. These teams met last month at Toronto. At the time, the Wild were off a game the previous night while the Leafs were well rested. The Leafs got off to a strong start, the Wild did not. Things set up much differently this time.
This time, the Wild are playing at home. This time, they didn't have to play last night. Note that the Wild have long been a better team on home ice. Currently, they've won seven of their last eight here. In six of those games, they allowed a single While the Wild got off to a 3-6 start, as seen by their home stats, they're playing much better now. Off a win last time out, they're 7-2 their last nine games overall. They've now earned at least a single point in nine of their last 10. While the Leafs got off to a 5-1 start, they've lost two of their last three games. With the loss to Boston, they're now just 14-31 (-14.4) their last 45 against teams with a winning record. They've had some trouble with the Leafs in recent meetings but I look for the revenge-minded Wild to take care of business tonight. 8* |
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11-12-13 | Winnipeg Jets v. Detroit Red Wings -166 | 3-2 | Loss | -166 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Jets came through for me in their last game. That was at Winnipeg though. Tonight, they're on the road at a tough venue against a talented and hungry opponent. Big difference.
The Wings have dropped three straight, the first of those losses coming at Winnipeg. That should give them some extra motivation here. The Jets are rarely as good away from Winnipeg; they're getting outscored by a 2.9 to 2.1 margin away from home this season. While the Wings have admittedly struggled here so far this season, they've been very good here, for a very long time. I expect them to get it together on home ice, at least for tonight. While the Jets are 12-24 (-9.1) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, the Wings are 30-12 (+11) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, they're 27-19 (+2.9) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. While the line may seem steep for a struggling team, consider that it was nearly as big for last week's game at Winnipeg and that the line has been greater than -200 four of the past five times the Wings were a host in this series. The last time the Wings hosted the Jets (12/10/11) they won by a score of 7-1. I don't expect this one to be that "easy" but I expect the end result to be the same, two points for the Wings. 9* |
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11-11-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Boston Bruins -156 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Lightning come in with a slightly better record and playing well. However, I believe that the Bruins are favored by this much for good reason. Keep in mind that the Bruins were laying -200, when they beat the Lightning 3-1 here in early October.
As noted on Saturday, Boston tends to bring its "A Game" when facing teams within its division. Indeed, the Bruins are now a dominating 30-8 (+16.8) their last 38 divisional games, 7-1 their last eight. While the Lightning would surely love to avenge a pair of losses last month, some teams just have other teams' number, matching up well against them. The Bruins, who are outscoring teams by a 2.8 to 1.9 average margin on the season, have long been "stingier" than the Lightning - and that has led to a one-sided series. Including this season's two wins, which it won by a combined score of 8-1, Boston has won six straight in the series. The Bruins are outscoring teams in their division by a 3.6 to 1.4 margin in games this season. They've allowed just two goals their past two games and I believe they've got an excellent shot at continuing their dominance of the Lightning for another day. 7* |
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11-10-13 | San Jose Sharks v. Winnipeg Jets +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG at +1.5 goals. (Puck-Line.) With the Sharks favored on the money-line, we're able to get the Jets on the puck-line at a "relatively" reasonable price. That may sound funny for a play in this price-range, but the fact is that one often has to pay more than this to get an extra +1.5 goals with a home team.
The Jets come in off an impressive 5-0 win. They've won two of their last three, the lone loss coming on the road vs. the defending champs. A closer look at the Jets' last nine games shows that only two of them have resulted in losses of more than a goal. (Both came against Chicago.) The Sharks are off four straight losses. While they lost by two last time out, five of their last eight games have been decided by a single goal. I like the way the Jets are playing right now and feel they have an excellent shot at an upset. However, with the Sharks desperate to snap their skid and with the game having a fairly high probability being close, I'll improve my chances by taking the extra +1.5 goals. 6* |
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11-09-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. St Louis Blues -124 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Blues have been excellent here at St. Louis. They're 6-2 here, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.6 to 2.5.
The Penguins have also been dominant at home. However, they're a mediocre 4-3 on the road, getting outscored by a 3.0 to 2.9 average margin. The Pens, who are dealing with some injuries at the moment, saw their 4-game winning streak snapped last time out, losing 5-1 to the Rangers. Note that they're only 7-11 (-8.4) the last 18 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. During that time, the Pens were just 21-21 (-6.3) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Meanwhile, the Blues are 12-3 (+7.5) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Blues are now 18-5 (+12.5) their last 23 non-conference games. They've won five of six and I expect them to keep rolling for another night. 8* |
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11-09-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Boston Bruins -186 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Bruins are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel that the price is justified.
The Bruins tend to step up their game vs. division opponents and they've long dominated the Leafs. They're 6-1 (+4.4) in their seven games vs. the division, outscoring teams by an average score of 3.7 to 1.4. Going back further finds them at 29-8 (+15.8) in division games the past couple of seasons. During that span, the Leafs are still only 14-19 (-4.4) in divisional games. While the Leafs are 14-30 (-13.4) vs. teams with a winning record, the Bruins are 48-27 (+9.8) vs. winning teams. The Bruins are 13-4 the last 17 in the series, 7-2 here at Boston. I expect them to continue that dominance this evening. 6* |
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11-09-13 | NY Islanders v. Columbus Blue Jackets -123 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Both these teams have gotten off to disappointing starts, each had hoped to be doing better. While each team should really want to get back on track, I expect the Blue Jackets to be a little more "desperate." Playing at home against a team which they have dominated, I expect that to translate to a victory.
The Jackets have now lost five straight. Four of those five games, including each of the last three, have come on Columbus. They hit the road after this though, making getting at least one home win all the more imperative. They've catching the Isles off a pair of road losses, games they got outscored by a combined 7-2 margin. These teams met on 10/5, the Jackets winning 3-2. While that was at Long Island, over the years, they're also 6-1 as a host in the series. 8* |
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11-07-13 | NY Rangers v. Columbus Blue Jackets -133 | 4-2 | Loss | -133 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. The Jackets badly need a win. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to get one.
While the Jackets had last night off, the Rangers are off a big emotional TV win. That's the type of win a team that can result in a letdown the next night. Note that the Rangers, already without Nash, aren't expected to have #1 goalie Lundqvist between the pipes tonight. Lundqvist made 28 saves in last night's win. While rookie Cam Talbot has been solid thus far, he's still only got a few games under his belt. While they haven't hosted the Rangers for some time, the Jackets are 5-1 the last six times the teams met here. With Gaborik fired up to face his former mates and the team desperate to snap their skid, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 9* |
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11-07-13 | Minnesota Wild v. Washington Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota and Washington to finish UNDER the total. While they haven't been here in some time, five of the Wild's six visits here have fallen below the total. I expect more of the same tonight.
Over the past 2+ seasons, the Caps have seen the UNDER go 23-17 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that time, the Wild have seen the UNDER go 6-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Off a 5-1 win last time out, note that the Wild have seen the UNDER go 9-4-5 the last 18 times that they were off a win by two or more goals. This season, the Wild have seen their road games average 4.7 goals, the UNDER going 4-1-1. Six of their seven games against Eastern Conf. opponents have fallen below the total. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. 9* |
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11-05-13 | Calgary Flames v. Minnesota Wild UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. While we have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5, I believe that the price will prove to be worth it.
Its not often that the Wild see O/U lines of 5.5. Usually, their lines are five. That may not sound like a significant difference. However, if you watch hockey, you'll see there are an awful lot of games that finish with exactly five goals. So, we're turning all those "pushes" into wins. Significant, indeed. Note that two of Calgary's last three visits here finished with exactly five goals, the other finishing with three. The "under" was only 1-0-2 in those games, as all had O/U lines of five. However, it would have been 3-0, if those lines had been 5.5. Looking back further shows that only two of Calgary's last 20 visits here have had O/U lines of 5.5. All the rest were set at five. The UNDER was 5-7-8 in those games. Yet, it would have been 13-7 if all lines were 5.5. Note that the UNDER is 7-2 the last nine times that the Wild played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Both teams got back on track defensively, last time out. The Flames limited high-scoring Chicago to two goals, a 3-2 win. Meanwhile, the Wild blanked the Devils by a 4-0 score. They've now seen seven of their last 10 stay below the number. Note that the UNDER is 4-0-3 the last seven times that they were off a shutout, most recently a 3-1 win vs. Carolina on 10/24. Games here are averaging 4.9 goals this season. All things considered, I feel this one also has an excellent shot at finishing with five or less. 8* |
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11-05-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Columbus Blue Jackets -130 | 4-1 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Both teams are on losing streaks, both should be desperate for a victory. Playing at home, I believe the Jackets will have the edge.
The Senators, expected to be without Craig Anderson, are having serious problems keeping the puck out of the net. They've allowed 20 goals their last four games, at least four in each of them. For the season, the Sens are allowing 3.4 goals per game. Columbus, on the other hand, allows 2.8 per game, 2.6 here at home. The Jackets have still won three of their last five here at home. They're 2-1 on the season, when playing at home, after having played their previous game at home. The Sens get to return home for an extended home stretch after this. They should snap their streak at that time - just not tonight. While the teams haven't met often, the Jackets are 3-1 as hosts in the series. I expect them to continue that dominance Tuesday evening. 8* |
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11-02-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. Edmonton Oilers -106 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. While the Wings come in as the hotter team, I like how this one sets up for the Oilers. Edmonton has had the past few days off. That's not always a great thing. However, in the Oilers case, I believe the break came at the right time. That's because they'd lost four straight. A look at the schedule shows that this will be the first time that the Oilers will have played back-to-back home games for more than three weeks. They're back on the road after this game, making it all the more important to take care of business tonight. While the Oilers are well-rested, the Wings are off a hard-fought 4-3 win at Calgary. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they're now playing their third game in the past four nights. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect the Oilers to rise to the occasion, earning a badly needed two points. 10* |