Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Phoenix Suns +7
The Dallas Mavericks have been on a tear at home of late, but it has been a different story for them on the road this season. The Mavericks are just 2-9 SU & 5-6 ATS on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.3 points per game on average. They can’t be 7-point road favorites over the Suns tonight.
That’s especially the case when you factor in the tough situation for the Mavs tonight. They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days here. They are without Dennis Smith Jr. and could be without J.J. Barea for this game tonight.
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Suns right now. They are 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. So we’re getting some extra value on the Suns tonight because oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be.
The Suns own the Mavs, going a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They’ve won outright as underdogs five times during this stretch. It’s just a matchup that favors them, and given the tough situation for Dallas, don’t be surprised if Phoenix wins this game outright, too. Bet the Suns Thursday.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Chicago Bulls +5.5
The Bulls are going through a coaching change and they just got several key players back from injury of late. Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis and Kris Dunn all recently returning from injury. I think this team is going to be a good bet moving forward now that they finally have some talent to surround Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker. It has also allowed Justin Holiday and Wendell Carter Jr. among others to get some valuable minutes. This is now a deep team that will pull some upsets. I like getting the 5.5 here with the Bulls against the Magic tonight. Orlando is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 against Southeast division opponents while Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six against NBA Central division teams. The Magic are also 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing on two days of rest. Give me the Bulls.
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1* Free NFL Pick on Chargers/Chiefs UNDER
There's zero doubt the public is going to back the over in this game. These two combined for 56 points back in a Week 1 meeting and both of these teams have been lighting up the scoreboard. I think it's resulted an inflated number and a lot of value on the UNDER.
I get the Chiefs still have the MVP front-runner in Patrick Mahomes, but they are simply not as explosive without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have backup Spencer Ware for this game and are down starting guard Cam Erving. Wide out Sammy Watkins also won't be available.
As for the Chargers, they are also down their top two running backs, as Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. It was already going to be tough enough for this offense dealing with the noise of Arrowhead, but not being able to run the ball could spell disaster against a great KC pass rush. One that is drastically better at home and getting back All-Pro safety Eric Berry, who if anything close to what he was before, will make a much bigger impact than I think people are expecting.
This is also the time of year where scoring is a lot tougher because of the conditions. It's going to be just above freezing with winds blowing at close to 15 mph. I'm not saying there won't be scoring, just not enough to eclipse this high total. Take the UNDER!
Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Houston Rockets -5
The Key: The Houston Rockets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 4th game in 10 days here Thursday night. They are rested and need to kick it into high gear now after a disappointing 12-14 start this season. The are coming off a win and cover at home against the Blazers, which is a good start. And I think they can handle a Lakers team that will be missing Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight. The Rockets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Houston is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 home meetings. The favorite is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Take Houston.
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #313 Dallas Cowboys over Indianapolis Colts (1p.m., Sunday, December 16 FOX) Just believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. Dallas has won 5 straight games including beating teams that are better than what they will see from Indianapolis this week. The Colts need to win out to keep their slim hopes of a playoff berth alive and I just do not see that happening. They will struggle to move the football against the Cowboys defense and expect this to be a low scoring game. Dallas has covered the spread in 5 straight games during this 5 game winning streak. Indianapolis is 5-12 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 19 games following a victory in their previous game. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. Monster runs going in all sports and now is the time to sign-up with a veteran handicapper that has been in business since 1971.
The Cowboys have completely turned their season around.
After it looked like they were down and out, the offense has completely shifted gears with Amari Cooper coming over. He added the value on Sunday as he caught a deflected pass in overtime to help Dallas grab a win over Philadelphia.
They hold value here on Sunday as the Colts haven't been as sharp as they'd like to be as of late. Indianapolis has been sloppy taking caring of the ball and have struggled to cover the number at home.
Grab the points here. Back Dallas.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Your FREE PICK today on the New Orleans Bowl will be on underdog Middle Tennessee State. Appy State loses it's HC, OC, DC and strength coaches to Louisville. The defense is solid, but not sure giving a TD might be a bit steep. Coming in with 10 wins, are they really happy and motivated, with their coach leaving them, to face an 8 win team who couldn't win CUSA? Blue Raiders excited to try to end the year with a win. MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS get the call.
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Syracuse Orange. The West Virginia Mountaineers were hoping to compete for a playoff spot this season, and Will Grier was won of the favorites to win the Heisman. Finishing the season with back to back heartbreaking losses leaves a cloud hanging around Morgantown heading into Bowl Season. When first asked about the Camping World Bowl, Will Grier said: “I have no thoughts or decisions,” Grier said. “I was planning on playing [in the Big 12 championship]. Just kind of taking it all in, my last game in Morgantown. Wish we would have came out on top, but we left it all out there for the fans.” The Orange are coming into this game with a chance to reach 10 wins, which would be considered a huge success for Dino Babers and company. The last time I bet on the Orange, they lost their starting quarterback early in the first quarter and ended up getting blown out by Notre Dame. Here is what I said prior to that game: "This a team that has already proved it can hang with the big boys, last year they handed Clemson it's only regular season loss. Senior quarterback Eric Dungey has been lighting it up with his arm and his legs. He's got a dozen rushing TDs and 690 rushing yards so far this season. The Orange have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. I'll take the points with Syracuse." Given the situation, I think the bookmakers are offering a generous number here on the underdog. Take CUSE. GL,
This is a 1* Free Play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bucs did their best to play “spoiler” to the Saints last weekend and while they looked “OK” for one quarter, eventually they’d stumble and succumb to the superior team. The Bucs laid everything on the line at home and the result was a 28-14 setback. Now they have to hit the road and face the league’s No. 1 defense which comes in off a tough 27-24 OT road loss in KC. The Ravens will be hungry to return to form and to keep pace in the playoff picture.
Additionally note that Tampa is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a loss by ten points or more, while Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Lay the points.
#NBA FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Dallas Mavericks will be playing on no rest following a 114-107 win over Atlanta Wednesday night. They're only 1-6 ATS in their last seven in the second night of a back-to-back.
Dallas is 13-2 SU home at American Airlines Center but just 2-9 straight up on the road. That run includes setbacks at some of the worst teams in the league and they took a 121-100 loss here in Phoenix back on October 17.
The Suns 4-24 record (9-19 ATS) is the worst in basketball by a mile and they're expected to be without Devin Booker (left hamstring injury) for a seventh straight game, but they've won six straight meetings with Dallas straight up and I think Phoenix will keep this reasonably close, if not win outright.
Free pick on Phoenix Suns.
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10* FREE NBA PICK (Bulls +5.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago as a decently priced dog against the Magic. This game is being played on a neutral court in Mexico City and I just think Orlando is way overpriced due to the fact that the Bulls are coming off a couple of ugly losses in their last two games. I actually think Chicago is a team you are going to want to be on quite a bit here in the near future, as they recently got back their best player in Lauri Markkanen and are now working two more starters back in the mix in Bobby Portis and Kris Dunn. It's also not like the Magic are in prime form right now. Last time out Orlando lost by 25 at Dallas and the game before that they lost by 22 at home to the Pacers. I just feel like this should be closer to a pick'em. Give me the Bulls +5.5!
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Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Thursda 12-13-18
LA Clippers +3
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NBA 75 DIME GAME
Los Angeles has been hot of late with six wins in their last seven and it’s hard to go against that kind of momentum. The Lakers have the weapons, even with Rondo suffering a setback after having fluid drained from his hand. Houston is too inconsistent to rely on, even with their trio of Harden, Paul and Capela leading the way. The Rockets lack the wing depth necessary and it’s going to be hard to try and guard James and Kuzma. Take the points and the Lakers in this one.