Ben Burns NHL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-03-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a fairly high-scoring (5-1) game against each other already this season. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair this afternoon.
The UNDER is 35-17-5 the past few seasons, when playing against divisional opponents. During the same stretch, the Sens have seen the UNDER go 27-21-1 when matched up against a divisional opponent. True, the Habs had a breakout game yesterday. They've seen the UNDER go 27-13-4 the past couple of seasons, after scoring four or more goals. With the Sens off a 1-0 loss and now having allowed two goals or less in seven of eight games (and 1 or less in five games) I'm expecting a defensive affair. *9 |
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02-02-13 | Dallas Stars v. Phoenix Coyotes -135 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. These teams played each other last night at Dallas, the Stars coming away with a win in a shootout. The Stars also beat the Coyotes in their first game of the season. Playing with double-revenge and now back in their own rink, I expect the Coyotes to get some payback tonight.
While the Coyotes admittedly haven't done too well (13-18) when playing the second of b2b games the past couple of seasons, the Stars have been downright terrible in that situation. They're 0-2 when playing the second of b2b games this season, getting outscored by a combined 5-1 mark. That brings them to a dismal 7-21 their last 28 in that spot. The Coyotes didn't play poorly last night and they've been competitive each time out lately. Coach Dave Tippett had this to say of last night's effort: "I thought our team hung around the game, competed really hard and gave ourselves a chance to win, but in the end gave a point up. We'll take that point, put it in the bank." Look for the Coyotes, 19-7 in February the past couple of seasons, to bounce back with a much needed "W." *9 Personal Favorite |
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02-02-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Philadelphia Flyers -139 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Its true that the Flyers do have some injury issues. However, I like them to respond with a huge effort tonight. While the Canes are off a win last night, the Flyers are off a loss. In this strike-shortened season, there's some extra urgency to bounce back from every loss.
True, the Hurricanes were impressive in last night's shutout (1-0) win. (That was fine by me, as I had the Under.) However, its interesting to note that Carolina is a dismal 27-48 (-29.3) the last 75 times it was off a shutout victory. While the Flyers' 14-16 mark the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games, isn't too good. Its far better than the Hurricanes' 12-26 (-14.2) mark when playing the second of b2b games. The Flyers are 14-7 (+5.4) the past couple of seasons after having played three straight on the road. Back home and playing with some desperation, I look for them to come away with the important two points. *8 |
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02-02-13 | BUFF SABRES v. MON CANADIENS UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that the price will prove to be worth it.
Note that the last five meetings in this series all had O/U lines of five, instead of 5.5. We're getting 5.5 here in part because of the fact that both teams had a couple of recent "overs." Buffalo has seen back-to-back games top the total while Montreal has seen three straight finish above the number. That doesn't happen often for the Habs though and those type of "over streaks" rarely continue. In fact, the UNDER is 4-0 the last couple of seasons when the Canadiens had seen their previous three finish above the number. The Canadiens, who have seen the UNDER go 31-11-5 on Saturdays the past couple of seasons, have also seen the UNDER go 21-10-7, when playing with two day's rest. When matched up against a divisional foe, the Habs have seen the UNDER go 35-16-5. That includes a 9-1-2 mark in this series, a 5-0-1 mark here at Montreal. With both teams looking to improve their number of goals allowed, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. *9 blue chip |
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02-01-13 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Vancouver Canucks -118 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. These are both talented teams, each very capable. Throw in the fact that they don't like each other and this has the makings of a good game. Given that they'll play at Vancouver and given the fact that they've been getting excellent goaltending of late, I give the edge to the Canucks.
Off a 3-0 win, note that the Canucks are 13-6 (+3.8) off a shutout win the past couple of years. During that stretch, they're a dominating 68-34 (+21.2) against team with a winning record, including a 5-3 mark as a host against the Hawks. While the Hawks are 40-43 (-7.5) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, the Canucks are 47-25 when playing a home game with the same O/U line. Obviously both teams will really want this one. However, as they're not off to as strong an overall start, I feel that the game is a little more important to the Canucks. With their passionate fans supporting them the entire way, I expect the 2-time defending regular season champs to rise to the challenge and come away with the two points. *8 feast |
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02-01-13 | OTT SENATORS v. CAR HURRICANES UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ottawa and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. The most recent two meetings between these clubs each finished with identical 2-1 scores. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here.
The Senators have allowed two or fewer goals in six of their seven games. The only time that they allowed more was when they were playing the second of back-to-back games, at Tampa. They're not in that situation here. A closer look shows that they've actually allowed one goal or less in four of seven games. Although they did manage five goals last time out, note that the UNDER is already 3-0 when the Sens had scored four or more in their previous game. Admittedly, the Hurricanes haven't been as consistent at the end of the ice. They allowed five goals vs. Boston last time out, after a 3-1 win vs. Buffalo in their previous game. Note that the UNDER is 28-20-3 the last couple of seasons when the Canes were off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. On the other side of things, note that the Canes have scored three or fewer goals in four of their five games, including one or less in two of them. Having been off since 1/28, its also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 11-4 the last 15 times that the Canes played with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back further finds the UNDER at lucrative 21-8 the last 29 times that the Canes were a host in this series. I feel those stats have an excellent shot at improving here. *9 best bet |
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01-31-13 | EDM OILERS v. SJ SHARKS -185 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks have been one of the league's better teams for quite a few years. Right now, they're playing as well, or perhaps better, than any other team in the league. While their perfect record obviously won't last forever, I do expect the Sharks to keep it going for at least another night.
The Sharks, who had yesterday off, aren't just winning - they're dominating. They've outscored teams by an average margin of 4.3 to 1.7 per game. Five of their six wins have come by multiple goals. The Oilers, who won at Phoenix last night are just 7-16 (-4.4) the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. During that stretch, they were also an ugly 25-52 (-15.2) when matched up against a team with a winning record. While this year's team is indeed improved, I don't feel that they're ready to win back-to-back road games, the second of those coming against the hottest team in the league. While the price is admittedly a little steep, keep in mind that the Sharks were laying -260 the last time that the Oilers were in town. Given the way that they're currently playing, I believe this line could even be higher and I expect the Sharks to again come away with the two points. *6 blue marlin |
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01-31-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. NY Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Rangers and Penguins to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game against each other earlier. However, I'm expecting this evening's rematch to prove lower-scoring.
The Rangers began the season by allowing 12 goals through their first three games. They've since gotten back to their style of hockey, allowing just five combined goals over their last three games. Meanwhile, after playing three consecutive games which topped the total, the Pens have also started to play lower-scoring games. Each of their last two contests have finished with five or fewer goals. I expect this one to do the same. *9 best bet |
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01-30-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Vancouver Canucks -159 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks may seem like a rather obvious choice here. One doesn't need to look at the "consensus sites" to know that they'll be a "popular" pick here. While I've been known to go against the grain at times, sometimes the obvious choice is actually the correct one. I feel that's the case here.
The Canucks have been the best "regular season" team in hockey the past couple of years. They've had very few losing streaks and they've been dominant in Vancouver. They've owned Colorado, a team which remains winless on the road. The Avalanche are 0-3 on the road. They've been outscored by an an average margin of 4-1 in those games, losing 4-2, 4-0 and 4-1. The Canucks are 37-13 (+12.8) their last 50 against divisional opponents. Conversely, Colorado is 13-37 (-25.2) its last 50. In a strike-shortened season and with more difficult games (Chicago followed by a 2-game road trip) on deck, the well-coached Canucks are well aware of the importance of earning two points here. If this were a baseball game, given the mismatch on paper and recent histories of the two teams, I believe the line would be over -200. Note that the Canucks are 6-0 the last six times that they were a host in the series and that they've been laying as much as -340 in those games. While anything can obviously happen, I like the Canucks' chances and feel that the price is fair. *7 annihilator |
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01-30-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Phoenix Coyotes -125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. I won with the Oilers in their last game. Playing at home, they took care of business against a Colorado team which has struggled on the road thus far. However, I also successfully played against the Oilers in their previous game, a road loss at Calgary. They're back on the road again here and I expect them
I will acknowledge that the Oilers are an improved team from the one we've seen in recent years. I'm not ready to call them elite yet though - they're still young and some struggles on the road won't surprise. The Coyotes are off a momentum-building 4-0 win last time out. They're 7-1 against the Oilers the last couple of seasons. They're also 52-41 (+10.4) off a shutout win. The Coyotes outshot the Oilers by a 42-20 margin in winning 4-2 the last time that the teams faced each other here. I expect them to come away with the important two points once again. *9 personal favorite |
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01-29-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Minnesota Wild -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is by far the steepest price I've played so far this NHL season. While I'd prefer the majority of my money line plays to come at a lower-cost, I don't mind occasionally laying this kind of number - provided I believe that the number should actually be even higher. That's how I feel here.
The Wild, who had last night off, were a better team than the Jackets in recent seasons and they should be again this year. Off three straight losses and with a difficult game against Chicago on deck tomorrow, they should have plenty of motivation. The Jackets, who beat Dallas last night, have been terrible throughout their history, when playing the second of back-to-back games, including an 11-24 mark their last 35 in that situation. They were beaten 4-0 the only time that they played the second of b2b games this season. The Wild are 15-7 (+3.5) their last 22 as a host in the series. I expect them to dig deep and come away with the much-needed two points. *7 personal favorite |
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01-29-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Minnesota Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota and Columbus to finish UNDER the total. After allowing five goals in back to back games, the Wild should be very determined to crack down defensively and improve on their number of goals allowed.
Note that the UNDER is 34-17-6 the past few seasons, when they were off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. Facing a Columbus team which is averaging only 1.8 gpg (1.3 on the road) should certainly help the Wild's chances of an improved defensive effort. While we do have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5, note that the UNDER is 20-9 the last 29 times that the Wild have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Both 2012 meetings had lines of five and each finished with four combined goals. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. *8 blue chip |
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01-28-13 | COL AVALANCHE v. EDM OILERS -123 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. I successfully played against the Oilers on Saturday night. That was on the road against their desperate arch rival though. They're back home now though and I believe it will prove to be a favorable matchup.
While the Oilers have had a tough few years, this is a much improved team. While they may have lost Saturday, they battled hard - and the fact that they're even 2-2 at this point says something. A look at the Oilers' first four games shows that they had to play a road game at Vancouver - the Canucks have been dominant there in the regular season in recent years. Their two home games came against San Jose and LA. The Sharks are a very good team which is off to a 5-0 start and the Kings are the defending Stanley Cup Champs - I already noted that the last game came against a desperate rival. Now, however, the Oilers will finally play a home game against a "middle of the road" team, one which is already 0-2 on the road. The Avs have been outscored 8-2 in losing their two road games. Note that the Avs lead the NHL in penalty minutes per game with 28 and also in penalty-minute differential at 11:30. The Oilers have been starting slowly and battling to come back. They're aware of that issue and I expect them to correct it tonight. I expect them to be extremely hungry from the opening faceoff and for them to ultimately come away with two points. *9 Personal Favorite |
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01-27-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Tampa Bay Lightning -135 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Flyers looked pretty good in disposing of the Panthers yesterday. However, they're facing a better team here and they're doing so when playing the second of back-to-back games and while dealing with some key injuries.
When playing the second of b2b games earlier, the Flyers lost 5-2 at Buffalo. Note that the Flyers are a poor 24-30 (-19.3) the past couple of seasons, off a win by two or more goals. The Lightning, who had yesterday off, are talented and are playing well to start the season. They've 2-0 here at home, scoring six goals each time here. In addition to having had recent success against the Flyers in this building, the Lightning are an outstanding 12-1 the last 13 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of six or more. I feel the price is reasonable and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8 Personal Favorite |
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01-26-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Calgary Flames -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALGARY. The "Battle of Alberta" resumes in Calgary this evening. While the Oilers have gotten off to a better start, I expect to see a desperate Calgary squad this evening.
Already 0-3, in this strike-shortened season, the Flames know they can't afford to dig themselves a deeper hole. Note that they're a profitable 13-8 (+7) the last 21 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses While they did lose the most recent meeting here, the Flames are still 5-1 against the Oilers here the past couple of seasons. I expect them to step up and get it done. *8 Western Conf Best Bet |
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01-26-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. NY Rangers -180 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY RANGERS. The Leafs are off to a better start than the Rangers. However, I feel that the Rangers are a considerably stronger team. Off to a 1-3 start and with games vs. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on deck, followed by road games at NJ and TP, this is a game that the Rangers can't afford to drop. I expect a highly motivated effort, en route to an important two points. *8 personal fav
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01-25-13 | Vancouver Canucks v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game against each other on opening night, the Ducks chasing Schneider from the net. I expect tonight's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring.
Since the high-scoring opener, which caused all the Vancouver fans to panic, the Canucks have seen each of their next two games produce only four goals in regulation. (Each was decided in a shootout, both finishing with a 3-2 final score.) The Ducks have been involved in back-to-back high-scoring road games to start the season, most recently a 5-4 win at Calgary on 1/21. Note that they've seen the UNDER go 10-3-2 the last 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games though. Going back further finds the UNDER at 70-51-4 their last 125 in that scheduling situation. More of the same tonight. *8 feast |
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01-25-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Buffalo Sabres -144 | 3-1 | Loss | -144 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. I won with Carolina in the front end of yesterday's home and home contest. I'm coming right back with the Sabres here though.
The Hurricanes are a terrible 10-27 (-18.2) the past 37 times that they were off a win by two or more goals. During that stretch, they were also 11-26 (-15.6) when playing the second of back-to-back games. Last night's game notwithstanding, the Sabres, already 1-0 when playing the second of back-to-back games, are still the superior team. They're 22-13 (+4.9) the last 35 times that they hosted the Canes and I look for them to continue that home ice dominance in the series tonight. *8 personal favorite |
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01-25-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Buffalo Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game at Carolina last night. I expect this evening's rematch to be considerably lower-scoring.
Prior to giving up six last night, the Sabres had allowed just three goals through their first two games. They've seen the UNDER go 25-17-2 the past couple of seasons, when playing the second of back-to-back games. Three of Carolina's last four visits here have seen the final score fall below the total. Those four games produced only 19 combined goals, an average of less than five. I'm expecting a tight-checking affair. *9 best bet |
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01-24-13 | Buffalo Sabres v. Carolina Hurricanes -128 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. In this strike-shortened season, teams know that its critical to avoid a prolonged slump to begin the season. Already 0-2, the Hurricanes know that they'll face these same Sabres at Buffalo tomorrow night. Knowing that its likely going to be easier to beat the Sabres here than there, we should be able to expect their very best effort tonight.
Note that 0-2 teams thrived yesterday. The 0-2 Rangers beat the 2-0 Bruins. The 0-2 Coyotes beat the Blue Jackets. And the 0-2 Canucks and 0-2 Flames both earned a point against each other. The Canes are 9-6 the last 15 times that they hosted the Sabres, including a 4-2 win in the most recent meeting here. I expect them to be a little hungrier and to find a way to pick up the important two points. *9 best bet |
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01-23-13 | Calgary Flames v. Vancouver Canucks -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. Both these teams figure to be desperate. One can't ignore the fact that the Canucks have been the best "regular season" team in each of the last two seasons. They're well-coached, talented and they typically dominate at home. While the price might seem a little high, consider that the Canucks were -210 the last time that they hosted the Flames, a 3-2 Vancouver victory. In fact, before that, the Canucks were -300 and -260 in the two previous meetings against the Flames here.
Even with the shootout OT loss against Edmonton, the Canucks remain a commanding 36-13 (+11.8) against divisional opponents the past couple of seasons. The Flames really need this one. However, they've at least got a stretch of potentially winnable home games after this. On the other hand, with three road games on deck, the Canucks can't afford to drop this one. I expect them to get it done. *7 |
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01-23-13 | Calgary Flames v. Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Calgary and Vancouver to finish UNDER the total. The Canucks will have "#1 goalie" Schneider back in the starter's role here and I expect them to be extremely determined to play sound defense in front of him. I also expect Schneider to bounce back with a much improved effort, after a shaky outing in his first start.
Keep in mind that Schneider posted a stellar 1.96 GAA in 33 regular season games last season. The last four meetings between these teams all produced five or fewer combined goals. While the majority of those had O/U lines of five, note that the UNDER is 40-30 the last couple of seasons when the Canucks played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. *8 |
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01-23-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Phoenix Coyotes -148 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Columbus may have gotten off to a better start than Phoenix. However, lets not forget that the Coyotes were division winners for the first time in franchise history last season. They had high hopes coming into this season and should be desperate here. Starting 0-3 is never good - but in strike-shortened season, it could prove tragic. Before getting too carried away about the Blue Jackets, lets keep in mind that they've been one of the worst teams in the NHL in recent seasons.
The Coyotes have won six of their last eight home games against the Jackets, most recently a 2-0 win last April. Phoenix was laying -240 in that game, making tonight's price a "bargain" in comparison. The Coyotes are 23-12 (+11.5) the last 35 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. I expect them to play with desperation and to find a way to come away with the badly needed two points. *9 Personal Favorite |
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01-23-13 | Boston Bruins v. NY Rangers -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. These teams will already be facing each other for the second time. The Bruins won the first meeting, at Boston. Playing on home ice, I expect the revenge-minded Rangers to return the favor.
The Rangers were expected to be a Stanley Cup contender this season. Yet, they're in danger of starting 0-3 for the first time in 14 seasons. Starting 0-3 is never good - but in strike-shortened season, it could prove tragic. I expect to see a desperate Rangers team. The Rangers are 26-13 (+10.6) the past couple of seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. During that stretch, they were also 28-16 (+9.2) when off a loss by two or more goals. I expect their best effort and that to lead to an important two points. *9 |
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01-22-13 | Florida Panthers v. Montreal Canadiens -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Canadiens were swept by the Panthers last season. I don't believe that they've forgotten. Throw in the fact that they also lost their opener and I believe we can expect a highly motivated effort.
Montreal's Tomas Plekanec noted: "I'm sure we'll figure out and work out the things we need to for the next game and be ready. We can be better. We have to be better. And we will." The Panthers got blanked 4-0 at Ottawa last night. Dating back to last season, they're 2-7 the last nine times that they played a road game, after having played the previous day. The Canadiens haven't lost their opening two games in more than 10 years. In this shortened-season, its more important than ever to keep that from happening. Expect them to step up and get it done. *7 annihilator |
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01-21-13 | Florida Panthers v. Ottawa Senators -138 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OTTAWA. Both teams were impressive in their opener. Playing at home, I expect the Senators to be the team which keeps on rolling for another day.
The Sens are 7-1 against the Panthers last few seasons, including a 4-0 mark here at Ottawa. Going back a bit further finds that they've won 11 of the last 15 home meetings with the Panthers, including five straight. These teams will play against at Florida on 1/24. While the Panthers will play at Montreal tomorrow, the Sens don't play again until that game. I feel the Sens are the better team and I expect them to step up and give the fans a win in their home opener. *7 personal favorite |
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01-19-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Vancouver Canucks -169 | 7-3 | Loss | -169 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. This price may initially seem a little steep for an opening night matchup. However, I believe it could easily be higher.
The Canucks have won six of the last 10 meetings with the Ducks here and they were laying more than -200 in four of the last five of those. While they will be without Kesler, this is a very talented and well-coached Vancouver club, a team which has won the President's Trophy in back to back seasons. Their experience should serve them well in the strike-shortened season. Naturally, the Ducks will also be looking to get off to a fast start. Keep in mind that they lost 15 of their first 17 road games last season, en route to missing the playoffs. The Canucks should be hungry here. Daniel Sedin noted: "Every time you lose that last game of the season, it still hurts. We're a team that should be competing for the Stanley Cup. That's where we want to get to this year." Playing in front of their hockey-crazed fans, I expect Sedin and co. to take the first step for that goal tonight. *6 |
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01-19-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Winnipeg Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Winnipeg and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay a little extra juice to play at six. However, for the first game of the season, I believe that a line of six will prove to be too high and that the price is actually very reasonable.
Ottawa games averaged 5.8 goals last season. Winnipeg games averaged 5.7 goals. That average dipped to 5.5 when the Jets played here at home. Ottawa got great goal-tending down the stretch and improved defense is a primary goal of the Jets this season. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. *9 blue chip |
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06-02-12 | Los Angeles Kings v. New Jersey Devils -108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. When the Spurs had won 20 in a row in basketball, there started to be a lot of talk, or at least some, that they wouldn't lose another game. Of course, that was rather far-fetched. The Thunder thumped them in Game 3 and are favored to win Game 4. There's also talk that the Kings will run the table and win the Cup without losing another game. I didn't buy the talk about the Spurs (won with Thunder in Game 3) and I'm not buying the talk of the Kings running the table either. The first game went to OT, so easily could have gone either way. Keep in mind that the Devils won both regular season meetings. More importantly, note that New Jersey has been at its very best when trailing in these playoffs. In fact, the Devils are a perfect 5-0 in that situation this postseason. Down 2-1 vs. Florida, they won 4-0. Down 3-2 in that same series, they won 3-2. Down 1-0 vs. Philadelphia, they won 4-1. Down 1-0 to the Rangers, they won by a score of 3-2. Down 2-1 in that same series, they responded with a 4-1 victory. As indicated by the above results, the Devils have been at their best when their backs are against the wall. A quick tally of the above five games shows that New Jersey won them by a combined score of 18-6. The Devils are 28-16 (+14.8) the last 44 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting and I'm not counting them out yet! *10
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05-25-12 | NY Rangers v. New Jersey Devils UNDER 4.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on the UNDER in the Rangers/Devils game. We've seen back-to-back high-scoring games in this series. That's helped out on the line, as we're now getting "plus money" on the "under 4.5" goals. I feel that's providing excellent value. Lundqvist wasn't at his best last game. However, he's an elite goalie and I expect him to be much better tonight. Keep in mind that he's already had two shutouts in this series. Also, note that the UNDER is 11-6-3 the last 20 times that the Rangers were trailing in a series. Eighteen years ago, these same teams met here at New Jersey, also in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Devils had a 3-2 series lead, just as they do today. A cocky and confident Mark Messier, captain of the Rangers, guaranteed that his team would win. Messier backed up his boast with a hat trick. The Rangers went on to win 2-1 in Game 7 back at New York and then proceeded to beat Vancouver in the Finals. Brodeur was the goalie in that game 18 years ago. He remembers it well and he's determined not to let it happen again. I expect the future Hall of Fame goalie to shine tonight. The Devils may have tallied five goals last time out. However, they've still seen the UNDER go a profitable 36-22-10 the last 68 times that they scored four or more in their previous game. With one or more goalies "standing on his head," I expect those stats to improve tonight. *10
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05-23-12 | New Jersey Devils v. NY Rangers -125 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. I won with the Devils last game. However, I'm coming right back with the Rangers here. Home ice didn't seem to help some teams much at the beginning of the playoffs. Its an important factor for these Rangers though, who have been winning when it counts here at MSG. Note that NY is 25-11 (+8) the last 36 times it played a home game with an O/U line of five or less. Last game, I noted that the Rangers weren't very good when leading in a playoff series. The opposite is true when they've been tied though. They're 6-1 (+4.4) their last seven in that situation. Last game, I noted that the Devils were quite good when trailing in a playoff series. The opposite is true when they've been tied though. They're 2-5 (-4.4) their last seven in that situation. The Rangers are 13-7 (+4.2) after allowing four or more goals and 15-7 (+7.4) after scoring one goal or less. With the home fans cheering them on, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. *8
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05-21-12 | NY RANGERS GM4 v. NEW JERSEY GM4 -113 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. I like and respect this Rangers team and have won with them a number of times already during these playoffs. However, I also respect the Devils and feel that they're the team providing us with value here. The Devils have been playing great hockey. They haven't lost two in a row since the middle of April when they dropped two in a row vs. Florida. They followed up those setbacks with a convincing 4-0 victory. They haven't lost more than two in a row since February. While the Rangers are 0-6 the last six times that they were leading in a playoff series, the Devils are 4-0 the last four times that they were trailing in one. The Devils are also 15-9 the last 24 times that they were off a loss by two or more goals. This is a talented team backed by a future Hall of Fame goalie. I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort and for that to lead to a much needed victory and the series getting tied at 2-2. *10
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05-12-12 | WASHINGTON GM7 v. NY RANGERS GM7 -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. When teams get to Game 7, obviously they're quite evenly matched. I still feel the Rangers are a little more of a complete team though and playing on home ice, I expect them to find a way to be the team which advances. The Capitals are 8-7 when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. The Rangers, on the other hand, are 23-10 (+7.4) when they've played a home game with an O/U line of five or less. The Caps are 13-10 when playing with two day's reset in between games. The Rangers, on the other hand, are 13-4 (+7.6) when they have played with two day's rest in between games. The Caps are 2-3 when tied in a playoff series. The Rangers are 4-1 (+2.4) when they've been tied, most recently winning Game 5 in this series. The Rangers are also 23-13 (+6.2) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting and 14-7 (+6.4) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. With the home fans helping them along, I expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats Saturday evening. *9
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05-09-12 | NY RANGERS GM6 -103 v. WASHINGTON GM6 | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK RANGERS. I believe momentum can play a major role in a playoff series. Had the Capitals won Game 5 at MSG, as it appeared they would, they likely would have won this series. However, the Rangers pulled off a thrilling comeback, tying the game in the final 10 seconds of regulation and winning in OT. That puts them in the driver's seat in the series and gives them all kinds of positive momentum heading into Game 6. I expect them to "ride the wave" and to wrap things up here. The Rangers have shown an ability to win here and on the road. They won Game 6 (at Ottawa) in the last series and they already earned the split in the first two games here. The Rangers have been a better team than the Caps this season. They scored more goals while also allowing significantly less. I expect them to get it done here, as the Caps fall to 2-8 their last 10 second round playoff games. *9
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05-08-12 | New Jersey Devils v. Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on New Jersey and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The last game finished above the total, a 4-2 NJ victory. However, it only did so thanks to a late giveaway which led to an empty net goal. With the Flyers playing without their star and leading scorer, I expect a low-scoring affair here. (Claud Giroux was suspended for this game.) The Devils have seen the UNDER go 35-25-10 the last 70 times that they were off a victory of two or more goals. The UNDER is an even more profitable 35-21-10 if they scored four or more goals in their most recent game. Don't be surprised if this one proves to be the lowest-scoring game of the series to date. *8
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05-07-12 | WASHINGTON GM5 v. NY RANGERS GM5 -145 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. This series has seen the teams alternate victories. After the Rangers won the opener, the Capitals won the second. The Rangers responded with a victory in Game 3. The Caps then won Game 4. With the series tied 2-2, I look for the pattern to continue and for the Rangers to hold serve for this very important Game 5. The Rangers were in this position in the first round. Tied 2-2, they lost here vs. Ottawa. While they managed to battle back and win the series, they obviously do not want to put themselves in that hole again. I expect them to have learned their lesson and to come out with their very best effort. Note that even with the other Game 5 loss, the Rangers are 3-1 when tied in a series. New York captain Ryan Callahan had this to say of tonight's game: "We have to win it. It's a big game, especially coming back home. We have to make sure we concentrate on our start, take the crowd's energy and make sure that our first 10 minutes are there.'' While home ice hasn't always been much of an advantage in these playoffs, I expect it to be here. The Caps are 20-27 on the road; he Rangers are 30-17 at home. With the Rangers also 22-13 (+5.2) the last 35 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the last meeting, I look for them to bounce back and seize control of the series. *9
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05-06-12 | PHILADELPHIA GM4 v. NEW JERSEY GM4 UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on New Jersey and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. After the first game of this series finished with a 4-3 score, I came back and successfully played on the "under 5.5" in Game 2. That game finished with a final score of 4-1, i favor of New Jersey. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring as only one goal had been scored, entering the third period. Off a 4-3 final in Game 3, I'm once again coming back with the UNDER in Game 4. While the Devils broke out with four goals in each of the last two games, they rarely keep scoring like that many times in a row. In fact, the UNDER is 35-20-10 the last 2+ seasons, after New Jersey scored four or more goals in its previous game. The Devils only scored four once in the previous series vs. Florida. They followed up that breakout offensive performance by getting blanked (3-0) in their next game. Even with the Game 3 result, the UNDER is still 3-1 when the Devils have hosted the Flyers in 2012. Now leading this series for the first time, note that the UNDER is 24-15-11 (61.5%) the last 50 times that New Jersey was leading in a playoff series. While we do have to lay a little extra juice on the 5.5, I feel that getting a win with a 5-goal game justifies that price. I expect those stats to improve here as (at least) one of the two goalies raises his level of play and this one turns into a defensive affair. *9
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05-04-12 | PHOENIX GM4 v. NASHVILLE GM4 -160 | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Coming into this series, I felt that the Predators were the stronger team. I didn't play them for either of their losses at Phoenix. However, I did successfully back them in their 2-0 shutout win in Game 3. Off that momentum-building victory, I expect the Preds to follow it up with another one this evening. The Preds are now 29-16 (+6) at home. They've outscored teams by an average score of 3.0 to 2.4 here at Nashville. That's much better than the Coyotes' 23-22 mark away from Phoenix. With the Game 3 loss, note that the Coyotes are now an ugly 4-9 (-5.6) the last 13 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Really, the Preds could have easily split the first two games in Phoenix, as they had a 42-24 edge in shots in the first game. They've now got their goalie, Pekka Rinne, playing with confidence again though, an element that was missing at Phoenix. Rinne had this to say: "We played desperate hockey and showed a lot of character when we faced maybe some adversity. That was nice to see.'' Having their goalie playing well and the team playing great defense tends to lead to further success for Nashville. Indeed, the Preds are a highly profitable 14-5 (+9.1) the last 19 times that they were off a shutout victory. I expect them to be at their best again here, improving on those stats and evening up the series. *8
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05-02-12 | PHOENIX GM3 v. NASHVILLE GM3 -148 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Down 2-0, the Predators obviously really need this game. While we do have to lay a fairly large number, I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While the Coyotes are a respectable 23-21 on the road, the Predators are a more impressive 28-16 at home. They're outscoring teams by an average of 3.0 to 2.5 goals here. The Predators have suspended a couple of players (Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn) for this game, due to them breaking "unspecified team rules." I don't expect that to be an issue though. As coach Trotz had to say: "Every team that has success in the playoffs has to go through some adversity. They haven't had to go through a whole lot of adversity yet, so this is a good test. When you go through adversity, it really reveals your character so we're going to find out what kind of character we do have.'' Although they didn't win Game 2, the Predators are still a solid 21-15 (+5.4) when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. Going back further finds them at an awesome 72-46 (+33.6) in that situation the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *7
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05-02-12 | PHOENIX GM3 v. NASHVILLE GM3 UNDER 5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Nashville and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. The first two games in this series have been surprisingly high-scoring. They finished with seven and eight combined goals. That's unusual for these teams though and I expect the change of venue to bring with it a much lower-scoring game. The Predators last game here resulted in a 2-1 win over the Wings. Going back a bit further finds the UNDER at 3-0-2 their last five games here. Three games finished with three or fewer combined goals, the others finished with exactly five. While the Preds have seen the UNDER go 3-0-2 their last five at home, the Coyotes have seen the UNDER go 3-0-2 their last five on the road, most recently a 4-0 shutout win at Chicago. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 10-4-3 their last 17 away from Phoenix. The fact that the last game was on Sunday is also significant. The UNDER is 29-19-6 the past few seasons when the Preds have played with two day's rest in between games, 14-5-2 this season. During that same stretch, the UNDER is also 25-15-4 when the Coyotes have played with two day's rest. With the UNDER also a highly lucrative 42-19-10 the last 71 times that the Coyotes were off a win by two or more goals, expect a defensive affair. *10
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05-01-12 | NEW JERSEY GM2 v. PHILADELPHIA GM2 UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on New Jersey and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The first game of this series was high-scoring, a 4-3 victory for the Flyers, in OT. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair here. With a future Hall of Fame goalie between the pipes for so many years, the Devils have shown a strong tendency of bouncing back from a poor defensive effort with a good one. Excluding pushes (the vast majority of which all would finished with five goals) the UNDER is 167-100 the last 167 times that the Devils allowed four or more goals in their previous game, 37-19 the past 2+ seasons alone. I played on the "under" after the Devils allowed four goals most recently, a 4-3 loss vs. Florida on 4/17. Brodeur bounced back with a shutout and New Jersey won 4-0. Prior to Game 1, the two most recent meetings between these teams had both finished with five or fewer goals, a 4-1 game at New Jersey and a 3-0 game here at Philly. Even with the Game 1 result, the UNDER is 28-17 the last 45 times that NJ played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, 123-76 their last 199 in that situation. I feel those stats have an excellent shot at improving here. *10
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04-29-12 | Nashville Predators v. Phoenix Coyotes UNDER 5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Phoenix and Nashville to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring opening game; Phoenix won 4-3 in overtime. I'm expecting significantly fewer goals here though. The Predators have seen the UNDER go 13-9-3 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The Coyotes have seen the UNDER go 9-6-10 after scoring four or more. Going back further finds the UNDER at 35-26-13 the last few seasons, when they were in that situation. Prior to Friday's open, the Coyotes had allowed two or fewer goals in four straight games, including a 4-0 shutout in their final game in the first round. In fact, even including the three they allowed on Friday, the Coyotes have still allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of their last 12. Prior to Friday's game, the Preds had allowed just four goals in their previous three games. They've still seen the UNDER go 6-3-3 their previous 12. When playing a game with an O/U line of five, there is always a fairly good chance of finishing with a "push." (Obviously, that's not we're looking for.) That said, I feel this one has a much better chance of finishing below the five mark than it does of finishing above that number. Expect a defensive affair and don't be surprised if one of the goalies posts a shutout. *10
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04-28-12 | WASHINGTON GM1 v. NY RANGERS GM1 -157 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. I won with New York in Game 7 in the Ottawa series. Some may expect a letdown. I don't. The Capitals are off a thrilling Game 7 victory of their own - they've just had more time to think about it. Personally, I feel the Rangers, who rallied from a 3-2 deficit in the last series, are rolling right now and that playing again without such a long break will benefit them. The Capitals have proven they are no slouches and that they can win on the road. That said, they're still getting outscored by an average score of 3.0 to 2.5 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers are outscoring teams by a commanding 2.7 to 2.1 margin here at MSG. While the Caps have some impressive talent, I feel the Rangers are the more complete team from top to bottom; they're the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They've also got the better goalie, one is currently playing at the top of his game. I expect them to keep on rolling, "holding serve" on home ice in Game 1. *7
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04-26-12 | OTTAWA GM7 v. NY RANGERS GM7 -164 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. While this series has obviously been very close, I still believe that the Rangers are the superior team. They won on the road in Game 6 to force this game. Back at home, I now look for them to step up and close out the series. Its certainly true that home teams have not fared well in this first round. However, I do believe that home ice will benefit NY here. The Rangers finished the season with 109 points. Ottawa had just 92. The Rangers were 27-14 (27-12-2) at home. The Sens were 21-20 (21-14-6) on the road. The Sens are 2-3 in road games with an O/U line of five. The Rangers are 20-9 in home games with an O/U line of five. The final score of the last game was 3-2. However, the Rangers were actually in control with a 3-1 lead, until the Senators scored a highly controversial goal in the final minute. As NY goalie Lundqvist commented: "Someone wants them back in the game, obviously, because there's no other explanation." After playing every other day for most of this series, I believe that the extra day's rest in between games (last game was on 4/23) will serve the Rangers well. For starters, its given captain Ryan Callahan an extra day to help mend a finger injury sustained by blocking a shot in Game 6. Additionally, note that the Sens are 8-9 (-0.9) when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Rangers are 12-3 (+7.6) when doing so. While the Sens are 0-4 in Game 7s, the Rangers are 3-0 their last three at MSG, when playing a Game 7. With the support of the home fans behind them, I expect them to improve on those stats, demonstrating that superior talent and home ice actually are important. *7
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04-24-12 | FLORIDA v. New Jersey Devils -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. The opening round of the NHL playoffs have provided a reminder that teams in "must win" situations don't always win. That said, I feel that the Devils, who are currently in a must win spot, will find a way to win this game. After Monday's practice, NJ sniper Ilya Kovalchuk had this to say: "We put ourselves in this situation and so we just have to look at it one game at a time. It's a huge game for us and I think we were sharp today. We did what we wanted to and we're ready to go." Kovalchuk went on to say: "I think all of us, we have to shoot the puck more and we have to create more traffic. We don
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04-22-12 | Los Angeles Kings v. Vancouver Canucks -175 | 2-1 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on VANCOUVER. After dropping the first three games of the series, the Canucks showed that they weren't ready to go golfing quite yet, earning a 3-1 Game 4 victory at LA last Wednesday. That kept the series alive and now we're back in Vancouver. Well-rested and with the full support of the Vancouver crowd behind them, I expect them to now force a Game 6. The Kings may have won the first two games here. However, they're still 20-23 on the road. On the other hand, the Canucks are still 27-16 at home. Schneider will get the start again for Vancouver - not only has he been better than Luongo but the team has been better when he's been in net. Off the 3-1 victory last time out, note that the Canucks are 59-41 the last 100 times that they were off a win by two or more goals in their previous game. If recent history is any indication, the extra break in between games should serve the Canucks well. In fact, they're a highly lucrative 21-4 (+15.8) the last 25 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. While the price is admittedly a little on the high side, all things considered, I feel it could easily be even higher. *8
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04-21-12 | Ottawa Senators v. NY Rangers -170 | 2-0 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. With the series tied 2-2, obviously this is a pivotal game. Playing at home, I expect the Rangers to come out on top. The Rangers were the better team all season. After flopping in the first round of the playoffs last year, I really do expect them to advance (at least) past the first round this year. That means they better take care of business tonight - as being down 3-2 in a 7-game series is a tough hole to climb out of. It should be noted that Ottawa captain Daniel Alfredsson is out - and reportedly did not even make the trip. While the Sens would surely love to win this for their captain - his absence figures to hurt. The Rangers lost last game. However, they played very well towards the end of the game (Coach Tortorella said the third period of Game 4 was NY's best of the series) and I expect them to bring that momentum into tonight's game. Marc Staal had this to say: "Going into the third, we knew we needed to have a big period and we did. Obviously, we didn't get a goal, get rewarded like we wanted to, but it's something we can take into the next game.'' The Rangers are very tough at home. They're 27-12-2 here, the second best home mark in the East. As Brandon Prust noted: "We love playing at home. We love playing in front of our fans.This building is a hostile environment for an opposing team. Home ice advantage is huge to have.'' The Sens are 7-9 (-2.3) when playing with two day's rest in between games. Conversely, the Rangers are 12-2 (+9.3) when doing so. They bounce back in a big way here. *8
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04-20-12 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Pittsburgh Penguines UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. I can't remember a higher-scoring NHL playoff series than this one. Not in recent years anyway. However, I've got a feeling that order will finally be restored - at least a little - and I feel that this O/U line is providing us with excellent value. The series opened up with an O/U 5.5. Then climbed to six the next game. That's already high for an NHL playoff series. We're seeing fives from the other games - with the occasional 5.5u-140 mixed in. Yet, by last game, the line was up to 6.5. Now, we're all the way up to 7. In fact, we're even getting an underdog price to boot. With all due respect to these obviously potent offenses, I feel that it just too much for an NHL playoff game - even one from a series which has proven to be as amazingly wide open as this one. After giving up so many goals last time out, the Flyers should really look to slow the tempo here. They've seen the UNDER go 13-8-2 the past 23 times that the played a road game with an O/U line of six or higher. I look for those stats to improve as things to finally settle down and this to actually resemble a normal game. *9
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04-19-12 | St Louis Blues v. San Jose Sharks +101 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. I lost with the Sharks last time out. I'm willing to give them another shot here though. I feel these teams are very evenly matched. Both are well coached. The Blues may have a slight edge in goal - however, that can change from game to game. The Sharks have the better skilled offensive players though, at least in my opinion. They've also been here before, many times. I expect their very best effort. Due to what was seen in practice, the Sharks are expected to mix up their lines a little for Game 3, which could provide a spark. As SJ defenseman Dan Boyle noted: ''Sometimes when things aren't working you have to switch it up ... When things aren't going well you have to try to find a way to get a spark.'' The Sharks are still 21-9 their last 30 in April. During that time, they're also 40-29 after allowing more than three goals in their previous game. Even with the Game 3 win, the Blues are still 15-16 when playing a road game with an O/U lie of five. On the other hand, the Sharks are still 19-10 the last 29 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five, 10-5 their last 15 in that situation. While I respect the Blues, I feel that the Sharks will be at their very best and that they're providing us excellent value, given the situation. *10 (Roast)
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04-19-12 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Chicago Blackhawks -143 | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Coyotes are certainly proving to be no slouches. Desperate to get back in the series and inspired/angered by the loss of fallen Marian Hossa, I expect the Hawks to be too much for them here though. Chicago's Patrick Sharp had this to say: ''There's only been one dirty hit in our series and you saw the same thing from that guy last year in the same series. You know it's coming. You try to warn your linemates and be aware when he's on the ice. He's got a history of targeting guys' heads and having questionable hits. It makes it that much more frustrating to see it happen, but we got to rally behind Hoss.'' Sharp is referring to the fact that Raffi Torres, the player who hurt Hossa, also hurt Chicago's Brent Seabrook in the playoffs last season. (Torres was playing for Vancouver at the time.) The Coyotes are up 2-1. However, they haven't fared too well in their history when leading in a playoff series. In fact, they're just 1-7 (-6.8) the last eight times that they played a playoff game when leading the series. On the other hand, the Hawks are 7-2 (+5.6) the last nine times that they were trailing in a series. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8
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04-19-12 | FLORIDA v. New Jersey Devils -164 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. After their Game 3 "meltdown," I expect the Devils to be all business in Game 4. Future Hall of Fame goalie Martin Brodeur got the hook in Game 3. Whether or not that was the right move, (they lost, so one could certainly argue it wasn't) its safe to say that Brodeur will be back between the pipes when the puck is dropped Thursday. Its also safe to say that he's be extremely determined to bounce back with his best effort. I believe he will. Brodeur should get some support. This is arguably a more potent Devils' offense than he's had in front of him in many of his previous memorable playoff runs. Obviously, the Devils are going to be playing with desperation. A loss here and they're in trouble. Even with the Game 3 win, the Panthers are still a dismal 6-13 (-5.8) the last 19 times they played a road game with an O/U line of five. Even with the Game 3 loss, their second straight, the Devils are still 23-14 (+11.1) when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. While the line is a little steep, I fully expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *7
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04-18-12 | Vancouver Canucks v. Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and LA to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay some extra juice to play the ''under' here. However, given the way games have gone here at LA all season, I feel the price is well justified. I won with the 'under' in the last game of this series. That one was 0-0 entering the third and finished with a score of 1-0. This one may not be that "easy" but I do expect another low-scroring affair. Games here are now averaging just 4.3 goals on the season. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 22-12, excluding 'pushes.' Off their 1-0 victory, note that the UNDER is an extremely profitable 41-19-8 the past few seasons, when the Kings were off a game in which they scored one goal or less. That includes a 16-6-3 UNDER mark their last 25 in that situation. With the UDER also a lucrative 7-3-1 when the Kings are off a shutout win, I'm expecting goals to again be at a premium. *8
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04-17-12 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Chicago Blackhawks -147 | 3-2 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. While the Coyotes were the higher seed, I feel the Hawks are the superior team. Note that Chicago had the better record and more points this season. Phoenix earned the higher seed, courtesy of winning its division. Having split at Phoenix, the Hawks now have home ice advantage though. They're a very well-coached team and I don't expect them to just relinquish that without a serious fight. The Hawks had a very high 45 shots in Game 1 and then followed it up with a whopping 50 shots in Game 2. The Coyotes had 33 and 34. While the Coyotes' goalie Mike Smith has had an outstanding season, no goalie can stand up to facing 45 or 50 shots every game. Note that Smith is also a bit banged-up now, too. The Hawks were 27-14 at home during the season. The Coyotes were just 20-21 on the road. The Hawks were also 24-12 (+6.3) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game; they're 75-44 (+7.6) in that situation the past few seasons. While the first two games have both gone to OT, I expect the Hawks to step up and win this one in regulation. *9
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04-16-12 | St Louis Blues v. San Jose Sharks -106 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Blues may have had the better regular season record. However, the Sharks are arguably the more talented team and they've also got more playoff experience. Returning home, after having achieved a split in the first two games at St. Louis, I believe the Sharks are providing us with excellent value here. The Blues won Game 2 by a score of 3-0. They're only 30-41 (-16.6) the past 71 times that they were off a win by two or more goals though. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Sharks were 35-18 (+8.4) when off a loss by two or more goals. The Blues haven't been in that situation for a few years but are just 5-8 (-6.1) the last 13 times that they were tied in a playoff series. During that stretch, the Sharks were 14-9 (+6.4) when tied in a playoff series. The Blues were also only 14-15 when playing a road game with an O/U line of five. The Sharks, on the other hand, were 10-4 (+2.8) wen playing a home game with an O/U line of five, a situation they are 19-9 in the past few seasons. It may not be easy but I look for them to dig deep and to improve on those stats here. *10
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04-15-12 | Vancouver Canucks v. Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and LA to finish UNDER the total. The first two games at Vancouver both snuck over the number. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game here at LA though. Games here averaged a mere 4.4 combined goals this season. Excluding "pushes," the under was a lucrative 21-12. Having played three straight on the road, note that the UNDER is 26-13-4 the past few seasons, when the Kings played their last three on the road, 8-3-1 their last 12 in that situation. The Canucks have played here four times the past couple of seasons. All four games produced five or fewer combined goals. I feel this one has an excellent shot at falling below that mark. *10
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04-13-12 | Los Angeles Kings v. Vancouver Canucks -168 | 4-2 | Loss | -168 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Kings stole Game 1. The Canucks are a #1 seed - and the league's President's Trophy winners for a reason though. They should now be desperate while the Kings have already accomplished their mission of earning at least a split in the first two games. While the Kings are 11-12 after scoring four or more, the Canucks are 11-7 after allowing four or more goals. The Canucks are also an outstanding 36-11 (+23.8) the past few seaons, when attempting to avenge a home loss. That includes an excellent 11-2 record their last 13 in that situation. I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort and look for them to improve on those stats here. *7
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04-13-12 | Los Angeles Kings v. Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on LA and Vancouver to finish UNDER the total. The first game snuck above the total. I expect a far more disciplined effort from the Canucks to lead to a lower-scoring affair for tonight's rematch though. Even with the Game 1 result, the Kings have still seen the UNDER go 16-9-7 when playing a road game with an O/U line of five. Prior to Wednesday's 4-2 final, these teams had seen eight straight meetings against each other produce five or fewer combined goals. That includes a 1-0 final in the last meeting of the regular season. Goals should again be at a premium. *10
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04-13-12 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Pittsburgh Penguines -189 | 8-5 | Loss | -189 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Penguins appeared in total control in Game 1, jumping out to a 3-0 lead. The Flyers showed they weren't just going to roll over though, battling all the way back or a 4-3 OT victory. Now the Penguins are "desperate" though, while the Flyers have already accomplished their mission of (at least) splitting the first two games. The Pens are still 30-15 their last 45 games and that includes a commanding 18-4 (+11.6) mark their last 22 against teams with a winning record. While the price is obviously a little on the steep side, I fully expect them to bounce back and even up the series here. *6
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04-12-12 | Ottawa Senators v. NY Rangers -149 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Rangers are fairly heavy favorites here. However, the price has come down from its opener - and it could easily even be a little higher. The Rangers finished with a 51-31 (51-24-7) record, good for 109 points. The last time they finished with at least 109 points? The 1993-1994 season, the year they won it all. The Sens were 21-20 on the road. The Rangers were 27-14 at home. After a disappointing showing in last year's playoffs, the Rangers are on a mission. The Sens are just happy to be back in the playoffs. Ottawa's had some success here in the past - but not tonight. *7
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04-11-12 | Detroit Red Wings v. Nashville Predators -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Playing on home ice arguably means more to each of these teams than it does to the majority of other teams around the league. The Red Wings were an outstanding 31-10 (31-7-3) at Detroit this season. However, they were only 17-24 (17-21-3) on the road. The Predators were a respectable 22-19 (22-16-3) on the road but a much better 26-15 (26-10-5) here at Nashville. Given those home/road records, it should come as no surprise to learn that the Preds took two of three home meetings against the Wings this season. That was also the case last season. The Wings struggled down the stretch and lost their final two regular season games. They've scored two goals or less in five of their last six games, scoring three in the other. The lost four of those six games and are 4-7 their last 11. Note that the Wings are just 3-8 (-5.6) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five. The Preds won the most recent meeting here by a score of 3-2. They also followed it up with a 4-1 victory at Detroit on 3/30. They've won three straight (and six of eight) and should have plenty of confidence here. Given the venue and current play of both teams, I feel the Preds have an excellent shot at starting things off with a win. *9
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04-07-12 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Winnipeg Jets -139 | 4-3 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on WINNIPEG. I successfully played against these same Jets in their last game. However, that was on the road and part of the reason I played against them was that I felt they would get caught looking ahead to this, their home finale. While they didn't make the playoffs, one could argue that the Jets return to the NHL was a success. Certainly, their play in Winnipeg was, at the least. Indeed, the Jets are an excellent 23-17 (23-13-4) here at home. On the other hand, the Lightning are a terrible 12-28 (12-22-6) on the road. The Jets were 14-9 (+5.8) in division games this season. They lost all three at Tampa this season but won both meetings vs. the Lightning here in Canada. Expect them to give their loving home fans one last reason to cheer. *8
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04-07-12 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Montreal Canadiens -119 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on MONTREAL. Kind of sad to see these two once proud teams having both fallen upon such hard times. Still, a Toronto/Montreal showdown on Saturday night is always a big deal. I expect both teams to be anxious to close out the season with a victory. That said, playing at home, I expect Montreal to be a little more "hungry." Really, one could find plenty of negative things to say about both clubs. Still, the Leafs have been outscored 3.3 to 3.0 on the road while the Canadiens have at least outscored teams (2.8 to 2.7) on home ice. In the end, I expect home ice to be the difference as the Habs reward the faithful by restoring a small measure of pride. *8
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04-07-12 | Anaheim Mighty Ducks v. Calgary Flames -129 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CALGARY. Playing their home finale, I expect the Flames to be a little more hungry here. While its been a disappointing season, the fans in Calgary still love their team. The players should be looking to reward that loyalty with one last victory here. The Flames are still a respectable 22-18 (22-12-6) at home. That's MUCH better than the Ducks' 13-27 (13-17-10) road record. The Flames are 22-11 the last 33 times they were a host in this series, too. The Flames rallied to beat Vancouver last game, showing they haven't quit. Calgary right winger Tom Kostopoulos said this of the Flames mindset: "I know we let our fans down this year but we wanted to come out and show
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04-05-12 | Winnipeg Jets v. NY Islanders -119 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on the ISLANDERS. Neither team will make the playoffs. I feel that the Isles will be a little more focused and motivated to win this one though. The Islanders are playing their home finale, while looking to snap a skid. The Jets are off a big OT win against Florida, their third straight division game. They're now playing their fourth straight on the road and could be caught looking ahead to their home finale, which also happens to be a divisional game, on Saturday. The Jets are an ugly 3-10 (-7) after playing three straight on the road. They're also just 18-19 (-3.1) against teams with a losing record. The Isles, on the other hand, have quietly gone 17-14 (+2.8) against losing teams. I expect them to outwork the Jets tonight, en route to earning the home fans a final victory. *10
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04-03-12 | Winnipeg Jets v. FLORIDA -150 | 5-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. I successfully played against the Panthers in their last game. However, they were on the road for a non-conference game in that one and I even noted at the time that I thought they may well get caught looking ahead to this game, the first of three big divisional showdowns to close out the season. I'll admit to being a little fortunate to winning the last one, as the Panthers actually fought quite hard. Returning home, stepping down in class, desperate for a victory and playing with revenge from an embarrassing 7-0 loss, I expect their very best effort tonight. I actually had the Jets when these teams met on 3/1. I remember it well as it was such an easy victory. (As noted above, Winnipeg won 7-0.) The shoe is on the other foot now though. Not only are the Panthers much better at home but the Jets are terrible on the road. This is a massive game for the Panthers and they should be inspired by the fact that Washington lost yesterday. A victory here gives them the division title and will end the longest playoff drought in the NHL. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it done. *8
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04-03-12 | NY Rangers v. Philadelphia Flyers -114 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Rangers have the better record. They've also dominated the season series. However, I feel that the Flyers have opened as very slight favorites for good reason. The Rangers still need a point to wrap up the top seed in the East. Meanwhile, the Flyers appear destined for a first round matchup with instate rival Pittsburgh. That may have some feeling that the Rangers need this one more. I would argue otherwise though. The fact is, even if they don't win here the Rangers are very likely going to still finish with the best record in the East. They've got two more games to gain the point after this. Plus, even if they lose all their games - if the Pens don't win all theirs, the Rangers would still clinch #1. So, its not exactly urgent in terms of seeding. I believe the fact that Rangers have won all the earlier meetings will provide added motivation for the Flyers. Regardless of seeding, the Flyers don't want to go into the playoffs with an opponent in their own conference having a psychological edge on them. Some will be surprised but I look for the Flyers to step up and "shock" the Rangers, avoiding the first sweep in this series in 40 years. *10
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04-01-12 | Florida Panthers v. Detroit Red Wings -169 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. The Wings are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel the high price tag will prove to be justified. This is a very big game for both teams. They both should be determined to give their best effort. Florida's best figures to be no match for Detroit's best though. The Panthers are 17-23 (17-16-6) on the road, including 2-6 (2-4-2) in March. The Wings are 30-8 (30-6-2) at home. While this is a big game for the Panthers, after this, they return home and close out the season with three straight divisional contests, including a huge showdown vs. Washington. So, they've got an even bigger game coming up. Both teams lost 4-1 last time out. However, the Wings were beaten by a tough Nashville squad while the Panthers were upset by lowly Columbus. Note that the Panthers have now scored three goals or less in eight straight games, two or less in six of those. While the Panthers are a money-burning 5-12 (-6.4) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five, the Wings are a perfect 4-0 when playing a home game with an O/U line of five. Still trying to lock up home ice advantage in the first round, I expect the Wings to get back on track in a big way here. *6
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03-31-12 | Dallas Stars v. San Jose Sharks -158 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. There are a number of reasons why I really like how this one sets up for the Sharks. For starters, I feel they're they're the more talented squad. They're also playing at home. Additionally, they had yesterday off while the Stars were busy playing a late game at Vancouver. However, perhaps the most important reason I like the Sharks is that this truly is a "must win" game for them. Currently, their chances of making the playoffs are less than 50%. But, they're still far from done yet. While "must win" games certainly don't always win, I believe this team has the coaching, character and talent necessary to respond with its very best effort. San Jose coach Todd McLellan had this to say of his team's mindset: "WE LOST A SET OF BACK-TO-BACK GAMES AND SCORED ONLY ONE GOAL. WE SHOULD BE DOWN. BUT (FRIDAY) WE'LL PICK OURSELVES UP OFF OF THE MAT AND GET READY TO SWING...
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03-30-12 | Winnipeg Jets v. Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Carolina and Winnipeg to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams are on their last legs. Barring a miracle, neither will be going to the playoffs. That said, both are still mathematically alive, entering today's action. With both teams fighting to keep their flickering hopes alive, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. The Jets have seen the UNDER go 5-3-1 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss and 4-2 when off a loss by two or more goals. The Canes closed out their road trip with a 3-0 shutout of Toronto. Note that the UNDER is 5-3 after they played their previous three on the road. Looking at the season series shows that ALL three games at Winnipeg were high-scoring. They had scores of 5-3, 4-2 and 4-3. However, the games here at Raleigh were an entirely different matter. They finished with scores of 3-1 and 2-1. The UNDER is 8-3-2 the last 13 games here at Carolina overall. Ten of those 13 games produced five or fewer combined goals. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. *10
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03-27-12 | Chicago Blackhawks v. New Jersey Devils UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on New Jersey and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. Neither of these teams was very happy with its defensive play last time out. The Devils were beaten 5-2 at Pittsburgh. The Hawks were embarrassed 6-1 by Nashville. I expect both teams to be motivated to cut down their number of goals allowed here and for that to lead to a relatively low-scoring affair. The Devils have seen the UNDER go 42-23-7 the past few seasons, after a loss by two or more goals. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 35-18-9 when they were coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. During that same period, the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 43-32-3 after having allowed four or more goals. That includes a lucrative 13-7 UNDER mark their last 20 in that situation . Chicago doesn't play here often. When it does, the games tend to be low-scoring. The Hawks have only visited here three times since 2006. Those games had scores of 2-1, 3-2 and 2-1, each staying below the number. With the UNDER at 24-16 the last 40 times that the Devils played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. *8
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03-26-12 | Colorado Avalanche v. San Jose Sharks -153 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. Every game is huge for both these teams right now. This one is no exception. Both teams should be extremely motivated to win. I feel the Sharks are the superior team though, particularly when getting to face the Avs here at San Jose. I also like how this one sets up from a "momentum" standpoint. The Sharks are 23-15 (23-12-3) at home. The Avs are 18-20 (18-16-4) on the road. The Sharks played a big game vs. Phoenix on Saturday. They found themselves trailing on two separate occasions (1-0 in 1st and 3-2 in the 2nd) but managed to battle back for a 4-3 victory in a shootout. After that game, captain Joe Thornton said.
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03-24-12 | Winnipeg Jets v. Nashville Predators -185 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. Wrong place, wrong time or the Jets. For starters, this is a tough venue. The Predators are 23-14 (23-9-5) here. On the other hand, even off a win at Washington last night, the Jets are 12-24 (12-20-4) on the road. Speaking of last night's win, not only was it a "hard-fought" victory, it was also an emotional one and it came vs. a division rival which they are battling against. Of course, it doesn't matter who they played the previous day, the Jets have been dismal when playing the second of b2b games. They're 1-10 (-8.6) when playing the second of b2b games. With the Preds at 10-2 (+8.6) when coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less, I'm expecting a victory for the home team here. *6
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03-23-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. Florida Panthers -165 | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. I played against the Oilers at Tampa, last night. That game worked out perfectly, although I did have to sweat a bit at the end. The Lightning led that game up until the Oilers got a late third period goal to force overtime. In the end, the Lightning would win in the shootout. That meant that the Oilers were required to work extra hard. Plus, the fact that they earned a point makes them having already accomplished something on their trip to Florida. That should make it easier for this team, which is playing out the string, to go through the motions here. Of course, even if they give their best effort, the Oilers are likely in over their heads here. They're 3-7 (-1.8) the last 10 times that they played the second of back-to-back games, going a dismal 7-25 (-12.2) their last 32 in that situation. The Panthers lost last time out. However, they're still 5-1 their last six. They gave up three goals last time out but had allowed two or less in six straight games before that. After this, four of six come on the road. In other words, the Panthers know they need to take care of business here. They're 18-11 (+6.5) against teams with a losing record and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *6
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03-22-12 | St Louis Blues v. Los Angeles Kings -130 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on LA. The Blues lost vs. the Ducks last night. They've suddenly dropped three of four. This figures to be a tough spot for them to bounce back. The Blues are an ugly 6-9 (-2.1) when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Kings are now 5-0 their last five and 8-2 their last 10. They're undefeated at home this month. While the Blues are getting outscored 2.3 to 2.2 on the road, the Kings outscore teams by a 2.4 to 1.9 margin here. These teams split a pair of meetings at Sat. Louis. However, the Kings won 5-0 in the lone meeting here at LA. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect the Kings to keep rolling for another day. *9
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03-22-12 | St Louis Blues v. Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on St. Louis and LA to finish UNDER the total. While the Blues are getting outscored 2.3 to 2.2 on the road, the Kings outscore teams by a 2.4 to 1.9 margin here. That's 4.5 and 4.3 goals. True, the Kings have been scoring quite a few goals lately. However, they haven't allowed more than two goals in the past 10 days and they'll be facing a stingy St. Louis squad tonight. The Blues are off a 4-3 loss last night. However, they'd allowed only three combined goals in their previous two games, 2-0 and 3-1 contests. They've still allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of their last 13 games. The last time they allowed more than two, their next game finished with a score of 2-0. The UNDER is 4-1-3 when they allowed four or more. The UNDER is also 7-4-4 when they played the second of back-to-back games. All three meetings this season (and six straight in the series) have finished with five or fewer goals. The most recent finished with a score of 1-0. I expect another defensive affair. *8
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03-22-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. TAMPA BAY -113 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. These teams are both playing out the string. In such cases, often the more motivated team will be the winner. Playing at home and trying to snap a losing streak, I expect that team to be Tampa. The Oilers are 7-18 (-6.3) on the road, when the O/U line is 5.5. Meanwhile, the Lightning are 19-13 (+4.2) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Oilder won 6-3 last time out. That was the first time since February that they scored more than three goals though. The last time that they did so, they followed it up with a 5-2 loss in their next game. In fact, they're just 18-34 (-9.4) after scoring four or more goals, the past few seasons. The last time the Lightning had lost three straight, they responded by beating Boston 6-1. Expect them to bounce back once again. *10
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03-21-12 | St Louis Blues v. Anaheim Mighty Ducks UNDER 5 | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on St. Louis and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. When playing on a game with an O/U line of five, there's always a reasonable chance of having to settle for a "push," due to the high number of games which finish with exactly five combined goals. In this case, assuming we can avoid the "push," I feel we've got a better chance of seeing less than five goals than we do of seeing more than five. The Blues are an extremely low-scoring team. Their games are averaging only 4.5 goals on the season and that number dips to 4.3 when they play away from St. Louis. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a lucrative 37-18 (excluding pushes) in their games, including 21-7 on the road. Note that the UNDER is 13-4 (with 8 pushes) in the 25 road games that the Blues have played which had an O/U line of five. The Ducks have also been a profitable UNDER team of late as 23 of their last 34 games (excluding three pushes) have fallen below the total. They've seen the UNDER go 11-3-2 their last 16 against teams with a winning record. The lone 2012 meeting in this series occurred two weeks ago, a 3-1 St. Louis victory. I expect another low-scoring affair. *9
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03-20-12 | Calgary Flames v. Colorado Avalanche -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO. These teams have faced each other four times this season. All four of those meetings were won by Calgary. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those games were played in 2011. The Avalanche have been the stronger team in 2012. During the second half of the season, the Avs are 18-16 (+3.8). The Flames, on the other hand, are 16-18 The Flames are off back to back losses, scoring only two goals in the two games combined. The Avs, on the other hand, are off a 3-1 win at MSG. Note that they're 34-19 (+20.8) the past few seasons when off a game vs. an Eastern Conference opponent, including 12-5 (+9) their last 17. While the Flames get outscored 2.9 to 2.4 on the road, the Avs outscore teams by a 2.6 to 2.4 margin here at Colorado. They're 10-4 the last 14 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five, which is the case tonight, and I look for them to exact some revenge from the earlier losses here. *10
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03-20-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. Nashville Predators -200 | 6-3 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. I feel the Predators are heavily favored for good reason here. While the price may initially seem high. Check out these numbers. The Oilers are a money-burning 17-53 (-29.4) the last 70 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Preds are an outstanding 41-18 (+18.4) when playing a home game where the O/U line is 5.5. During that same period, the Oilers are 36-81 (-28) against teams with a winning record. On the the other hand, the Preds are 58-37 (+14.3) against losing teams. While they've since won at Edmonton, the Preds were actually beaten by the Oilers here back in November. Now its payback time. *6
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03-20-12 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Dallas Stars -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. This is a huge game for each of these teams. That's because they're both tied with 83 points on top of the Pacific Division. Meanwhile, SJ and LA, also each in the same division, both have 82 points. The Coyotes have won three of five in the season series, including three straight. That said, despite a couple of recent losses, the Stars have been the better team in recent weeks. They've had a few days off in between games and I look for them to return with their best effort. The Coyotes have hung around but really don't have that much talent. They beat Edmonton last time out (an even weaker team) but are still only 3-7 since the beginning of March. The last time that the Stars played with three or more day's rest in between games, they won by a score of 6-2. They're a lucrative 9-2 (+7.2) the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five. Looking at some other stats finds that Dallas has long been outstanding after a bad loss. The Stars are 14-8 (+5.9) after allowing four or more goals. The Stars are also 13-7 (+6.2) after a loss by two or more goals. They're an extremely profitable 171-107 (+57.7) their past few hundred in that situation, 38-29 (+13.3) the past few seasons. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort here. *10
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03-19-12 | WASHINGTON v. Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Washington to finish UNDER the total. This is a big game for both teams. The Wings are trying to snap a skid and get back into the race for first overall. The Capitals are trying to bounce back from yesterday's 5-2 loss at Chicago and to make the playoffs. I expect that to translate to a tight-checking affair. The last time that the Capitals played the second of back-to-back games, they won by a score of 2-0. They've seen the UNDER go 11-8-1 the last 20 times that they were off a loss by two or more goals. The Wings have seen the UNDER go 3-2-2 their last seven games. Doesn't sound that impressive. However, consider that five of those seven games had O/U lines of five (instead of 5.5) and that both "pushes" finished with exactly five goals. That means the UNDER would have bee a far more profitable 5-2, if those games had an O/U line of 5.5, as tonight's game does. The UNDER is now 4-1-1 the last six times that the Wings had lost three straight games. Five of those six games finished with five or fewer goals. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 the last six times that the Wings were a host in this series. Once again, five of those six finished with less than 5.5 goals. I expect this one to do the same. *9
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03-19-12 | WASHINGTON v. Detroit Red Wings -170 | 5-3 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. Both teams want this one. I feel the Wings are favored by this much for good reason though. While they've lost a few recently, keep in mind that the Wings have been dominant here this season. They're 28-6 (+17.9) here on the season, outscoring opposing teams by a 3.7 to 1.8 margin. On the other hand, the Capitals are 13-23 (-11.7) on the road, getting outscored by a 3.2 to 2.5 margin. While the Caps want to win, they're off a game yesterday and are now playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip. Note that they're only 4-7 (-3.8) when playing the second of back to back games. The Wings, who recently got superstar Pavel Datsyuk back from injury, got embarrassed 7-1 at Washington earlier this season. They're 10-2 the last 12 times that they hosted the Caps, 3-0 the last three. They're also 17-8 (+5.2) the last 25 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Behind a highly motivated performance, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *6
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03-19-12 | New Jersey Devils v. NY Rangers -134 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. The Rangers have been in a bit of a funk lately and it all can be traced back to a loss vs. New Jersey. Now they get a chance to "exorcise the Devil" that started their slump. I expect that to translate to their very best effort. Both teams lost on Saturday. However, the Rangers were arguably the much better team. They outshot the Avalanche by a 42-20 margin but just had trouble putting the puck in the net. On the other hand, the Devils got destroyed by the Penguins, getting outshot by a 44-14 margin. With this being the 4th game of a 6-game homestand, note that the Rangers are 14-6 (+9) the last 20 times that they'd played their previous three at home, 5-2 their last seven in that situation. With the Rangers also a commanding 16-4 (+9.6) the last 20 times that they played a home game where the O/U line was five, its payback time at MSG. *10 Personal Fav.
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03-18-12 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Winnipeg Jets -159 | 4-3 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on WINNIPEG. I've ridden the Jets a number of times at home while playing against them on the road. While that sounds simplistic, in their case, its been effective. The Jets are 23-14 (23-10-4) at home but just 11-23 (11-19-4) on the road. Currently tied for ninth place in the Eastern Conference and with three very difficult road games (Pittsburgh, Washington and Nashville) on deck, the Jets know they absolutely can't afford to squander this very winnable home game. While the Jets had yesterday off, the Hurricanes were busy playing at Minnesota. To their credit, the Canes did manage to rally for a victory. They're still a dismal 10-25 (10-16-9) on the road though and that includes a 0-2 mark here at Winnipeg. They're also a money-burning 17-33 (-16.7) the last 50 times that they played the second of back-to-back games, going an ugly 3-10 their last 13 in that situation. The Jets are 11-7 (+5.2) against divisional opponents. I expect them to improve on those stats here and all things considered, the price could easily be higher. *8
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03-16-12 | Los Angeles Kings v. Anaheim Mighty Ducks -120 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on ANAHEIM. This game is very important for the Kings. However, its even more so for the Ducks. Desperate for points and off an impressive shutout victory, I expect the Ducks to be at their best here. Despite being quite far back and knowing the odds are against them, the Ducks aren't giving up yet. Off a shutout win last time out, goalie Jonas Hiller had this to say: "All we can do is win as many games as possible. You have to take care of it on our end, and hope that
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03-15-12 | Nashville Predators v. San Jose Sharks -127 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. I won with the Sharks two games ago, as they snapped their losing streak with a victory at Edmonton. I stayed off them in their most recent game, as it was a back-to-back situation and I felt they might have trouble with Calgary. (They did.) They're back home now though and have had a day off in between games. Desperate for points, I expect them to bring their "A Game." The Predators are a solid team. No question. They're comfortably in fifth place in the West though, five points ahead of #6 Chicago. So, things aren't exactly urgent. On the other hand, the Sharks have fallen to ninth - although they do have a few games in hand on 8th place Colorado. Throw in the fact that they're also playing with "revenge" and I expect we'll see a highly motivated effort from the Sharks here. Having had two days off, one would expect the Preds to be refreshed and ready to go. However, it should be noted that they're a surprisingly ugly 19-31 (-17.4!) the last 50 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. This is the first game back home for the Sharks, which can sometimes be a tough spot. However, the trip wasn't that long, as it was only four games. Plus, the Sharks typically often well in this situation. The last time they returned home from a road trip they earned a shutout win against the Flyers. They're now 27-18 their last 45, after having played three or more on the road. While the Preds upset them here back in November, the Sharks are still a commanding 15-4 the last 19 times that they were a host in this series. The price was higher on every single one of those games than it is tonight. I feel we're getting excellent value tonight and look for the Sharks to bounce back and resume their home ice dominance in this series. *8
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03-15-12 | Colorado Avalanche v. New Jersey Devils -163 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. I've won with the Avalanche a couple of times recently. I also won by playing against the Devils in their last game. However, tonight, the situation sets up very nicely for a play "on" NJ and also "against" Colorado. Last night's win at Buffalo was of the "hard fought" variety. The Avs were forced to play a full overtime period and then won in the shootout. They're now playing their their third game in the past four days. Note that the Avs are a dismal 12-28 the last 40 times that they played the second of back-to-back games. The Devils may have only split vs. the Flyers but they're still 4-1 their last five. Unlike Colorado, htye had yesterday off - they also have tomorrow off - so should have the fresher legs. The Devils should also have some added motivation as they lost at Colorado earlier this season. They didn't just lose either - they got embarrassed by a score of 6-1. That was way back near the beginning of the season though. Much has changed. The Devils are 17-12 (+7.4) the last 29 times that the played with "revenge." Off their third straight low-scoring game, note that they're also 30-15 the last few seasons, when off three or more consecutive "unders." Those numbers improve here, as its payback time in NJ. *8
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03-14-12 | Dallas Stars v. Winnipeg Jets -119 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on WINNIPEG. Dallas has certainly been rolling. However, this is a very tough spot. The Stars are off a hard-fought win at Minnesota last night. They'll now be facing a well-rested Winnipeg team which is desperate for a victory and which has been at its very best here at home all season. While they're 11-19-4 on the road, the Jets are an excellent 21-10-4 here at home. The Jets are outscoring teams by a 2.9 to 2.3 margin here. They won their last tw games here by a combined score of 10-1. While respectable on the road, Dallas still scores the same amount of goals (2.6) as it allows, when playing away from home. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I look for the Jets to bounce back and improve to 12-8 (+4.4) when off a loss by two or more goals. *8
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03-14-12 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Ottawa and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. The Senators have been involved in a couple of high-scoring games recently. However, they've had a few days off to "cool down" now and they'll be facing a typically stingy Montreal team. I expect a relatively low-scoring affair and feel that an O/U line of 5.5 is providing us with an excellent shot at cashing. The Canadiens have seen each of their last two games finish with exactly five goals. Seven of their last 11 have finished with five or fewer combined goals. Montreal divisional games have been low-scoring for years and this season has been no exception. Their divisional games are averaging a mere 4.8 goals this season with the UNDER going 11-5-2. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 42-22-9 in their divisional games the past few seasons. Not surprisingly, three of the last four in this series have finished with five or fewer combined goals, most recently a 3-2 Ottawa win on 1/14. Exactly two months later, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair with the UNDER improving to 36-20-9 the last 65 times that the Canadiens attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. *10
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03-13-12 | New Jersey Devils v. Philadelphia Flyers -113 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams just faced each other at New Jersey a couple of days. Playing on home ice, the Devils "held serve," earning a 4-1 victory. With tonight's rematch being played at Philadelphia, I expect it to be the revenge-minded Flyers who finish on top. While the Devils have now won four straight, keep in mind that two of those came against the lowly Islanders. The Flyers have also been hot and they've been facing some stronger opponents. Prior to Sunday's loss, Philadelphia had won five straight, including wins over Detroit, Florida and Washington. The Flyers outscored opponents by a 16-5 margin during that 5-game winning streak, recording three shutouts along the way. Philadelphia Coach Laviolette didn't downplay how important this game is. He was quoted as saying: "It's a division game and it's a big game. You come off of a loss where you don
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03-13-12 | WASHINGTON v. NY Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Washington and the Islanders to finish UNDER the total. The Caps are off a 2-0 victory over Toronto last time out. That's noteworthy as the UNDER is a lucrative 39-23-9 the last 71 times that they were off a shutout victory, 10-6-2 the past few seasons. With Sunday's win, the Caps have now 12-4-2 their last 18 against teams with a losing record. The Isles managed three goals last time out. They'd scored just one in each of their previous three games. They've now gone eight straight games without scoring more than three goals. They've averaged exactly two per game during that stretch. This has been a low-scoring series in recent seasons and both 2012 meetings have finished with five or fewer goals. With games here averaging 5.2 goals on the season, I feel the extra juice attached to the "under" 5.5 is fair. *9
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03-12-12 | San Jose Sharks -137 v. Edmonton Oilers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. Things are starting to get desperate for the Sharks. I expect a visit to Edmonton to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. These teams met recently at San Jose. After giving up a goal in the opening seconds, the Sharks bounced back and carried the play. However, the Oilers would hang on and eventually win the game in a shootout. That puts San Jose in the "revenge role" here. Of course, at this point, stopping the bleeding with a victory (against any opponent) is far more important than are any thoughts of revenge. After the previous loss vs. Edmonton San Jose's captain Joe Thornton said: "...We did a good job tonight. We worked hard. That's all we can do is keep working and hopefully the hockey gods will be kind to us the next few games..." While they've been struggling of late, I still view the Sharks as a "good" team. On the other hand, the Oilers remain one of the worst teams in the league. They've currently lost five of their last six and are long out of the playoff race. The Sharks are still 32-16 (+8.4) the past 48 times that they were off a loss by two or more goals. They're also 6-2 their last eight visits to Edmonton. I expect their best effort here en route to a very important two points. *9
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03-11-12 | NY Islanders v. NY Rangers -205 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. The Rangers are obviously heavy favorites here. However, given the venue and scheduling situation, I feel the price is fair. The Rangers, who had yesterday off, have dropped three straight. While they're still "sitting pretty" in the playoff race, the losing streak should provide plenty of motivation. Note that they're a profitable 11-8 (+3.4) the past couple of seasons, off three or more losses. During that stretch, they're also a lucrative 31-22 (+5.9) when off three or more consecutive losses. While the Rangers were resting yesterday, the Islanders played against the Devils yesterday. This will be their third game in four days. In addition to being motivated to snap the 3-game slide, the Rangers lost the lone 2012 meeting in this series. That should provide some further incentive. While the Islanders did win the most recent meeting, that was at Long Island. The Rangers have dominated the Isles here at MSG. In two games here this season, the Rangers are 2-0 with a 7-2 combined edge in goals. Even with the loss at Long Island last month, the Rangers are still a commanding 20-7 (+10.8) against teams with a losing record. They're also 14-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of five. The bottom line is that the Rangers are one of the best teams in the league while the Islanders would be happy to be considered "mediocre." The Rangers have the venue and schedule in their favor and should be fully focused on the task at hand. Lay the wood. *6
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03-10-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. Colorado Avalanche -155 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO. This game features two teams currently out of the playoff picture. The Avalanche are still very much fighting for a spot though while the Oilers have been playing out the string for many weeks. That makes this every game very important for the Avs. Taking advantage of a home game against an inferior opponent is critical, particularly when coming off a loss last time out. Off a 4-2 loss at Nashville, Colorado coach Joe Sacco commented: "In a game like this, that had such meaning, I didn't think we had enough guys giving a full 60 minutes, and that
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03-08-12 | Winnipeg Jets v. Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and Winnipeg to finish UNDER the total. These teams often have O/U lines of five. However, this one is set at 5.5. While we do have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. The Jets have allowed just one goal their past two games. Off a 3-1 over Buffalo on Monday, note that the UNDER is 6-4 when they've played with two day's rest in between games. The Canucks off back-to-back losses. The last time that they were in that situation, they won by a score of 2-0. They've seen the UNDER go 7-5-2 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game and I expect them to be highly motivated to improve defensively here. While the Jets have seen the UNDER go a modest 13-11 when playing a road game w/ an O/U line of 5.5, the Canucks have seen the UNDER go 55-47 the past couple of seasons when playing at home with an O/U line of 5.5. While the Jets haven't been here, the UNDER was 3-1 the last four times that the Thrashers played here. Last year's lone meeting (at Atlanta) finished with a score of 3-1. I expect this one to also produce five or fewer goals. *8
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03-08-12 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Washington Capitals -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Things have become desperate for the 4-time defending Southeast Division champion Capitals. Having lost three straight and playing the final game of a 5-game home-stand, they absolutely need a victory this evening. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Caps know they aren't usually as good on the road - and that they play six of their next seven away from home. That makes winning tonight even more critical. The Lightning have been playing better of late. They're down to backup goalie Dwayne Roloson though. Not such a good thing, when considering that he's just 2-8-1 with a poor 4.38 goals-against average over his last 16 appearances. As Tampa's Steven Stamkos noted of the injury to their #1 goalie:
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03-07-12 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Buffalo Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Buffalo and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. The Canes are off a high-scoring (4-3) win at Washington last night. Three of their previous five had finished below the 5.5 mark though and I expect a lower-scoring affair this evening. The Sabres lost 3-1 at Winnipeg last time out. They've now seen six of their last seven finish with fewer than 5.5 goals. Five of those games finished with four or less. While this season's previous meeting here at Buffalo did finish above the total, each of last season's meeting here were low-scoring. They had scores of 3-2 and 1-0. The Canes won the most recent meeting and the UNDER is a lucrative 66-46-8 the last 120 times that the Sabres played with "revenge." That includes a 19-12-3 UNDER mark in that situation this season. More of the same here. *9
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03-06-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. San Jose Sharks -200 | 3-2 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. I successfully played against the Oilers last night and they're in an arguably tougher spot tonight. The Oilers, playing their second of b2b games, have dropped three in a row and are out of the playoff race. They'll face a talented but desperate San Jose club, one which had the past two days off. Note that Edmonton is an awful 6-25 (-14.4) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games. The Sharks lost the last meeting in this series, a 2-1 victory for the Oilers on 1/23. However, that was at Edmonton and the Sharks had a 45-18 edge in shots. The Sharks won the lone meeting here at San Jose, outshooting Edmonton by a 37-25 margin in that one. They've beaten the Oilers in five of the last six meetings here and they were laying a minimum of -230 in five of those. That makes tonight's high price seem more reasonable. I expect a one-sided affair as the desperate Sharks show up with their A-game which will be too much for the outclassed Oilers to handle *7
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03-06-12 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on Phoenix and Columbus to finish UNDER the total. I played on the Coyotes to finish 'under' the total at Pittsburgh last night; the final score was 2-1. Now the Coyotes will take on a far weaker offensive team and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. The Blue Jackets did score five goals last time out. However, they'd scored just six combined goals in their previous four games, two or less in each of those. Note that the UNDER is 7-4 when they were off a game in which they scored four or more. For the season, the Jackets are averaging a mere 2.3 goals per game at home. The Coyotes, who happen to have the worst power-play in hockey, aren't much better. They're averaging only 2.5 goals per game on the road. With the Jackets having won the last meeting in this series, note that the UNDER is 18-11-6 the last 35 times that the Coyotes attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect those stats to improve here. *10
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03-05-12 | Edmonton Oilers v. Anaheim Mighty Ducks -155 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on ANAHEIM. After a great stretch to get within striking distance of the playoff race, the Ducks have stumbled a bit, losing three of four. With three fairly tough road road games on deck, they absolutely need to take advantage of tonight's winnable road game. The Ducks have dominated the Oilers in recent seasons. They're 8-1 the last three years. They won this season's lone meeting by a score of 5-0. Note that the Oilers are 17-50 (-26.4) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Ducks are 31-13 (+14.5) the past few seasons when facing a losing team in the second half of the seasons. They're the better team and I expect them to continue their series dominance this evening. *7
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