Ben Burns NHL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. Minnesota Wild -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Western Conference teams have held the edge vs. Eastern Conference ones thus far. I expect that to be the case again in Minnesota this evening.
The Canadiens have been pretty stingy recently, which has helped to make up for a rash of injuries. Tonight, they'll take on a team that is also very capable defensively. Prior to a home-and-home series vs. high-scoring Chicago, the Wild had limited five of their previous eight opponents to one goal or less. Note that Montreal is only 7-12 (-4.8) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. Even with the loss vs. Chicago, the Wild are outscoring teams by an average of 2.6 to 2.1 here, outshooting them by an average of 30.6 to 22.2. While the Canadiens play former star goalie Patrick Roy and the red hot Colorado Avalanche tomorrow, the Wild have tomorrow night off. While the Canadiens were 6-8 (-2.1) in November the past couple of seasons, the Wild were 11-4 (+7.8) in November. I expect them to start the month off with a win. 9* |
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11-01-13 | St. Louis Blues v. Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis and Florida to finish UNDER the total. The Blues won 7-0 when these teams met at St. Louis last month. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.
Even including last month's result, the UNDER is still 13-3-1 the last 17 meetings between these clubs. The Blues' last visit here resulted in a 2-1 final score. Looking back further finds the UNDER at 6-1 this millennium when the Blues have played here. True, the Panthers are off a 4-3 loss vs. rival Tampa. However, their previous four games had all produced five or fewer combined goals. Also, note that the UNDER is a profitable 17-5-5 the past couple of seasons, after the Panthers had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. Overall, the Panthers have been considerably stingier at home - and they'll be motivated for a much better defensive effort than they gave last month. The Blues, who are allowing 2.3 goals per game on the road this season, have seen the UNDER go 9-4 the last 13 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that time, the UNDER is also 13-6-5 when they had two day's rest in between games. While we do have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5, I believe it will prove to be worth it. 10* |
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10-30-13 | Boston Bruins v. Pittsburgh Penguins -131 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Both these teams have been playing very well and one could easily make an argument for either. I believe that the Penguins, who have had this game circled ever since the schedule came out, will be a little more "hungry" though. That's because the Bruins swept them out of the Eastern Conference Finals last season, Crosby taking a punch on his just healed broken jaw in the process. Lets not forget that the Pens have beaten the Bruins six straight times in the regular season though. While the Bruins lost their last game, the Pens got back on track with a victory their last time out. I expect them to get a small measure of payback from last June, continuing their regular-season series dominance along the way. 8*
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10-29-13 | NY Rangers v. NY Islanders -154 | 3-2 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS. I believe both these teams are probably better than their early season records indicate. While the Rangers have dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, tonight, I believe the Isles will have the edge.
The Isles will be getting their first look at Thomas Vanek tonight. Vanek has a knack for finding the net and should provide an immediate boost. Expected to initially be on a line with Tavares, the Isles top line should be one of the most potent in the entire league. Vanek, who figures to be thrilled to be away from rebuilding Buffalo, noted: "It's a fresh start for me and hopefully I can help these guys out right away. I'm just happy to be here right now, taking it all in. An opportunity like this doesn't come around much. I'm going to try to make the most of it." The Rangers are off a 2-0 shutout loss last night. That was their first game in NY after a long 9-game road trip, one which saw them travel the entire country. I'm not sure that they're fully recovered from that trip quite yet. Note that the Rangers lost by a score of 9-2 the only previous time that they played the second of back-to-back games this season. Note that the Rangers have now been blanked three times this season and that they've scored two or fewer goals in seven of 10 games. While the Isles are being outscored by a 3.4 to 3.3 margin at home, the Rangers are being outscored by a 3.7 to 1.7 margin on the road. Unlike their guests, the Isles are fresh. They've had the last couple of days off. They're 13-10 (+5.3) the past couple of seasons, when playing with two days rest in between games. (That's a considerably better winning percentage than they had when not playing with two day's rest.) They're sick of the Rangers dominating them and tonight I believe they'll serve notice that its a "new era" in NY. 9* |
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10-26-13 | Minnesota Wild +1.5 v. Chicago Blackhawks | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing MINNESOTA on the puck-line. With the Hawks fairly heavy favorites on the money-line, we're able to get the Wild at a "relatively" reasonable price on the puck-line. Given the way the teams are playing right now, I believe that extra +1.5 goals could easily come into play.
The Wild are playing well right now. They've won their last two games by score of 3-1 and 2-0. While they're still only 5-6 overall, they'd be 9-2 if getting +1.5 goals in each of their games. The Hawks are off a 6-5 loss last time out, falling to 5-4 their last nine games. Note that EIGHT of those games were decided by a single goal. The Wild are 11-4 (+8.5) vs. the money-line the past couple of seasons, off a win by two or more goals. During that stretch, the Hawks are just 9-17 (-14) vs. the money-line, after allowing four or more. The Wild, who host the Hawks on Sunday, have payback on their minds after the Hawks knocked them out of the playoffs last year. I expect a hard-fought game with the visitors earning AT LEAST a "cover." 6* |
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10-25-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Columbus Blue Jackets -115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. Off back to back victories, the Blue Jackets are starting to play well. This is a team which came into the season with very high expectations, believing this would be the year that they took the next step as a franchise. Things didn't start particularly well. However, the Jackets have won their last two games by a combined score of 7-2. I look for them to make it three in a row this evening.
Columbus center Brandon Dubinsky had this to say about his team's recent improved play: In addition to having home ice advantage, note that the Jackets have the schedule in their favor. They had the last two nights off and they also get tomorrow night off. Their entire focus can be on the Leafs. On the other hand, Toronto has a big game vs. Pittsburgh on deck tomorrow. Note that Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, is 3-1 with a 2.26 goals-against average in four career starts vs the Leafs While they've had some overall success on the road, the Leafs are being outshot by a 36.2 to 27.2 average margin, when playing away from Toronto. Facing a Columbus team which is outscoring teams by a 2.7 to 2.2 margin here, I expect it to catch up to the Leafs here. All things considered, price on home team seems more than fair. 10* |
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10-24-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Minnesota Wild -156 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Wild got back on track with a 2-0 shutout win over the Predators last time out. It was a determined effort from a team which had been playing well but which hadn't been catching many breaks. I believe that they'll carry the positive momentum forward into tonight's contest.
The last time that the Wild were off a game vs. the Preds, they followed it up by winning their next three games. Note that the Wild are 10-4 (+7.5) the past couple of seasons, when off a win by two or more goals. During that time, they're also 4-2 (+3.2) when off a shutout win. The Canes, who are off a 4-3 win vs. the Isles, are 5-21 (-16.5) the past couple of seasons, when off a divisional game. During that time, they're also 7-14 (-4.2) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Note that the Canes, who give up 31.2 shots per game, are being outscored by an average score of 2.9 to 2.4. The Wild are outshooting teams by a 31.4 to 19.6 average here, outscoring them by a 2.8 to 1.8 margin. While the Canes, who have won three straight on the road, are admittedly playing well, they haven't won four consecutive road games in more than two years. They're also winless against teams from the west. Overall, western conference teams have had their way with those from the eastern conf. I expect that to continue this evening. 9* |
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10-23-13 | Boston Bruins v. Buffalo Sabres +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing BUFFALO on the Puck-Line. (+1.5 Goals) With the Bruins heavily favored on the money-line, considering Buffalo on the puck-line becomes an option. While we do have to pay a premium, I believe it gives us an excellent shot at cashing and that the price could easily be higher.
Every goal is extremely significant in hockey; getting an extra 1.5 goals to work with is worth a great deal. Four of yesterday's eight games were decided by a single goal. (Seven of the eight were decided by two or less.) The previous day, all three games were decided by a single goal. That's 7/11 games in two days that have been decided by a goal. The Sabres have gotten off to a tough start and that the fans are calling for the coach's head. The truth is that they were likely to have a difficult season, no matter who was the coach. Still, even struggling/rebuilding teams are fully capable of scoring upsets (or at least "covering" @ +1.5 goals) in this league. Having a good goalie helps. Note that Ryan Miller is 5-2 in his last seven starts vs Boston with a 1.83 goals-against average. On the other hand, Rask surrendered a career-high six goals the last time that he faced Buffalo. The Sabres are well-rested having had a few days off. The break figures to come at a good time for a team which was struggling. The Bruins have also had a few days off. However, they're playing the final game of a road trip. With a home game vs. San Jose on deck for tomorrow, it should be easy to overlook the "lowly" Sabres. While they won big last time out, the Bruins' previous two games were both decided by a single goal. As for the Sabres, six of their 10 games have finished with one team on top by a goal. 6* |
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10-23-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ottawa and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams are off low-scoring losses last time out. The Sens saw their game vs. Edmonton finish with a score of 3-1. The Wings were blanked 1-0 by the Sharks.
While the Sens have seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, the Wings have seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. With these teams now both in the Atlantic division, note that the Wings have seen the UNDER go 22-6-11 the past 2+ seasons, when facing divisional opponents. That includes a 2-0-1 mark this season, game which are averaging 4.3 goals. Games here are averaging just 4.0 goals this season. The Wings average 2.2 gpg here, opposing teams a mere 1.8 goals. I feel this number could easily be 5 instead of 5.5 and am expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. 10* |
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10-22-13 | Nashville Predators v. Minnesota Wild -142 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Vikings didn't come through for me last night, I'm going back with another Minnesota team tonight.
The Wild, who have lost three straight overall, have had some early season struggles on the road. Each of their losses was on the road. They're 2-2 at home though, outshooting opponents by a 32 to 20.5 margin in those games, outscoring them by a 3.0 to 2.2 average. (The Preds are 2-2 on the road, getting outshot 33-30 and outscored 2.2 to 2.0. ) The Wild are also 2-1 in divisional play. The lone loss came against these same Predators, at Nashville. Note that Minnesota had a 34-20 edge in shots in that game. Despite not winning games, the Wild have been playing hard. Coach Mike Yeo noted: "I'm disappointed for our guys. They're playing their tails off. We're playing great defensively, generating chances, but we're not winning games. The Wild are 70-54 (+16.4) over the years when off three consecutive losses. They've had the edge against the Preds here over the years, most recently a 2-1 win here last February. Back on home ice, I expect their hard work and solid defense to pay off, as the revenge-minded Wild bounce back with an important two points. 9* |
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10-19-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Chicago Blackhawks -175 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Leafs have gotten off to a great start. However, they lost last time out and I believe that they're in for a reality check tonight.
The Leafs have had success against losing teams. They're still a dismal 12-28 (-13.6) their last 40 against teams with a winning record though. Now, they'll take on arguably the best team in the league. The Hawks are 16-5 (+7.4) the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. During that same time, they're also 43-29 (+7.4) against teams with a winning record and a dominating 20-9 (+9) against teams from the opposite conference. Going back further finds the Hawks a perfect 7-0 their last seven against the Leafs. Off a loss and welcoming a former player (now with the Leafs) back, I expect them to be extra hungry and for them to continue their series dominance. 7* |
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10-18-13 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Anaheim and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. The Ducks have allowed a mere eight goals in winning their last five games, and just five goals over their last four. With that brand of hockey working so well for the Ducks, I expect them to continue to try and play that way here.
Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau noted: "When you don't allow a lot of goals then you usually have some success." The Ducks have had to play that type of defense as they're 0 for 18 on the power play their last four games. For the season, they're worst in the league in that category, checking in at 1 for 23. The Coyotes, who lost 4-3 on Tuesday, have seen the UNDER go 15-10-4 the past couple of seasons after allowing four or more goals and 13-7-2 when playing with two day's rest. Keep in mind that the majority of those "pushes" were games that finished with five goals - which would be a win tonight. Off back to back games which finished with five goals, each sneaking Under the number, the Ducks have now seen the UNDER go 8-0-1 the past couple of seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games. I see that streak continuing for at least another day here. 10* |
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10-17-13 | St Louis Blues v. Chicago Blackhawks -139 | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams have both gotten off to strong starts. They also just faced each other last week. That game appeared headed to OT, but the Blues scored with 21 seconds remaining, earning a 3-2 win.
Chicago coach Joel Quenneville said this of that loss: "You've got to get that game to overtime. You take one (point) maybe two. You don't get none. That's unacceptable. ... There was not a lot of mistakes. We played a good game. But you can't make a mistake like that." Keep in mind that Quenneville used to coach at St. Louis, leading the Blues to seven straight playoff berths. One of the top coaches in the game, its safe to say that he doesn't want to get swept by his former club. The Blues lost 6-2 last time out, their first loss of the season. They're just 6-9 the past couple of seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. They have yet to play a single game on the road. The champs are outhsooting teams by a commanding 35.2 to 24 average margin through four games here. They've dominated the Blues here over the years and I expect them to get some payback tonight. 8* |
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10-17-13 | St Louis Blues v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. Five of the last six meetings between these rivals have fallen below the total. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.
The Hawks have been getting it done with defense so far this season. They're allowing just 2.5 goals per game, a mere 24 shots per game at home. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, each of which stayed below the total. The Blues allowed three goals or less in each of their first four games, two or less in three of those. Then, last time out, they gave up six. That should have this normally stingy team placing an extra emphasis on improved defense/goaltending here. Note the UNDER is 6-4-5 the past couple of seasons, after the Blues had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. (*Those five "pushes" were games that finished with five goals.) The Blues, who typically see more 5s than 5.5s, have seen the UNDER go 8-3 the last couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 9* |
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10-16-13 | NY Rangers v. Washington Capitals UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington and NY to finish UNDER the total. You may recall these teams facing each other in the playoffs. That series saw five of seven games produce five or fewer goals. The games had scores of 3-1, 1-0, 4-3, 4-3, 2-1, 1-0 and 5-0. Those games all had O/U lines of five. Tonight, we're getting 5.5 goals to work with instead. I believe that's providing us with excellent value.
It may have happened but I can't remember any recent times that the Rangers gave up 20 goals in a 3-game period. This is normally a very stingy team, at least that has been the case in recent seasons. I expect them to be extremely motivated to try and keep the puck out of the net tonight. Note that the UNDER is 65-46-5 over the years, when NY was off three or more consecutive games which topped the total. New York goalie Lundqvist noted: "There are going to be stretches when the puck is really big and stretches when the puck is a lot smaller. At the same time, it can turn around for you pretty quick." Lundqvist already bounced back with a better effort (stopped 16 of 17 shots) against the Blues, although it was in relief of Biron, who has since been set down. Note that Lundqvist blanked the Caps the last two times that he faced them. Overall, the UNDER is 6-1-3 the last 10 times that the Rangers played here. In fact 18 of the last 20 meetings between these teams have produced five or fewer goals. Only two of those games had O/U lines of 5.5, both falling below the total. I look for tonight's game to do the same. 10* |
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10-15-13 | Florida Panthers v. Nashville Predators -157 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. The Predators are winless on the road. However, they've won back to back home games, improving to 2-1 here on the season. I expect them to have the edge over the struggling Panthers, a team they have dominated here over the years.
While they don't face them too often, the Predators are undefeated when hosting the Panthers, this entire millennium. The Panthers are 0-4-2-1 in Nashville, since winning their first two games there. Their most recent win here came way back on Dec. 11, 1999. The Panthers aren't just losing on the road, they're getting dominated. They've lost their last three road games by a combined score of 16-3. The Panthers are 6-15 (-7.8) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. During that time, the Preds were 20-12 (+3) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. I expect them to take care of business once again. 8* |
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10-15-13 | San Jose Sharks v. St Louis Blues UNDER 5.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on St. Louis and San Jose to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that will prove to be worthwhile.
While the offenses for both teams have been receiving the bulk of the credit, both teams have also been very stingy defensively. Through the first handful of games, they both rank in the top four in the league, in terms of goals allowed. The Sharks are allowing an average of 1..4 goals per game, second best in the NHL. The Blues are allowing 1.8 per game, which ranks fourth. Both teams also rank in the top five in the league, in terms of shots allowed. The Sharks are allowing just 22.8 shots per game, second best in the league. The Blues rank fifth in that category, at 26.5. Both starting goalies have fared well. Antti Niemi has 1.40 goals-against average for San Jose and Jaroslav Halak has a 1.75 mark for St. Louis. The UNDER is 15-7 the last couple of seasons, when the Blues played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Blues, who normally have a line of five for their home games, have seen the UNDER go 8-4 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That's a combined 23-11. Overall, during that same period, the UNDER is 50-29-22 in St. Louis' games the past couple of seasons. Keep in mind that those pushes are almost entirely made up of games which finished with five goals. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 14-4-5 when the Blues were on a winning streak of three or more games AND that the UNDER is 15-3-4 after they'd scored four or more goals in their previous game, and I'm expecting a defensive affair. 7* |
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10-14-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Washington Capitals -154 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While this season hasn't started well, this should be a could spot for the Capitals to get back on track. Over the past 2+ seasons, they're 23-12 (+11.3) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, they're also 22-14 (+3.3) when playing a home game with a n O/U line of 5.5 and 16-9 (+6.5) off a loss by two or more goals. They're also 5-2 (+2.4) the last seven times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.
On the other hand, the Oilers are 4-13 (-8.5) the last 2+ seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. While the Caps have struggled in giving up a lot of goals, the Oilers are giving up even more - particularly on the road. In two games away from Edmonton, they've allowed 12 goals, six in each. In fact, they've allowed four or more goals in every one of their five games. While they don't' face them often, the Caps are 7-2 (+3.7) the last nine times that they hosted the Oilers. Already 0-2 on the home stand, I expect the Caps to come out with a lot of intensity here, en route to a much needed two points. 8* |
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10-12-13 | NY Islanders v. Nashville Predators -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. The Predators are off to a disappointing start, most recently losing 4-0 vs. Toronto a couple of nights ago. While I lost with them in that game, I'm willing to give them another shot here.
Nasvhille has the schedule in its favor. The Preds, which had last night off, catch the Isles off a 3-2 loss last night vs. Chicago, the defending Stanley Cup champion. The Preds have been excellent in recent seasons, at bouncing back from a poor offensive performance. In fact, they're 13-3 (+11) the last 16 times that they were off a game in which they scored one goal or less, already 1-0 this season. They've had their way with the Isles here over the years and I look for that to continue tonight. 9* |
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10-12-13 | Dallas Stars v. Minnesota Wild -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Its been a lot of years since the old Minnesota North Stars left for Dallas. Yet, there are still a few fans in Minnesota who haven't forgotten. Whenever the "Stars" come to town, its still an extra big deal.
Both teams are off a win vs. the Jets in their last game. However, the Wild have had time off since their victory. The Stars just played at Winnipeg last night. While they did have a long break before facing the Jets, this will still be the first time all season that the Stars have played the second of back-to-back games. The Wild know that they don't play at home again for another 10 days. I expect them to take care of business, rewarding the home fans with two points. 8* |
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10-12-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Washington Capitals -131 | 5-1 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Avs are off to a great start to the Patrick Roy coaching era. I expect them to come back down to earth here though.
The Capitals played a strong game last time out but came up short. A similar effort should be enough to win on most nights though. While the Avs have admittedly been very stingy defensively, they're only averaging two goals per game on the road. I feel that they'll have some trouble keeping up with the Caps, who are averaging 3.5 gpg here at home. I look for the Caps, who are 22-13 (+4.5) their last 35 on home ice with an O/U line of 5.5, to be a little more hungry here and for that to ultimately lead to two points. 8* |
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10-11-13 | Los Angeles Kings -120 v. Carolina Hurricanes | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA KINGS. While they've had some trouble on the road, the schedule favors the Kings here. LA had last night off; the Hurricanes were involved in a hard-fought battle with rival Washington. I believe that will make a difference.
As noted, last night's game was "hard fought." The Canes twice had to erase 1-goal deficits. The game came against a division rival, one who was also a long-time division rival, prior to the recent realignment. Carolina coach Kirk Muller said this of last night's win: "These are the games you have to reach down and give a little extra |
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10-10-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Nashville Predators -105 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nashville. The Leafs are off to a great start. However, they're dealing with some early season injuries and playing at a tough venue. They came back to earth a bit last time out, losing 2-1 to Colorado. The Predators started off 0-2 on the road. However, they played their home opener last time and won that. So, despite the 1-2 overall record, they bring some positive momentum to the table.
As captain Shea Weber noted: "It's always nice to win the first one and try to build some confidence, some good things and keep moving forward when we're at home because we're going to be on the road quite a while." The Preds, who have had success against the Leafs here (in limited games) over the years, are 10-5 the last 15 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5, a situation they've long thrived in. I expect them to come out on top and believe the price is more than fair. 9* |
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10-10-13 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Washington Capitals -152 | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Capitals may be 1-2. However, they're 1-0 here at home and they've got their superstar (Ovechkin) seemingly back in top form. That's bad news for the Hurricanes, as Ovechkin routinely killed them (65 points in 52 games) when the Caps and Canes were division rivals. The Caps beat the Canes four of five times last year, including each of the last three. Going back over the years finds Washington at 29-15-2 its last 46 as a host in the series. The Canes are already 0-1 on the road, giving up five goals and losing 5-2. The Caps have had some extra time off in between games. That isn't always a good thing. However, in their case, I believe a break early in the season came at the right time. I feel the Caps bring more to the table and I look for them to come out energized and fired up to face a former division rival. 9*
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10-09-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Los Angeles Kings -144 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. The Kings figure to be in a foul mood. They've dropped back-to-back games and everyone's been laughing at their star goalie. Ottawa should be the perfect opponent to take their frustrations out on.
The Kings have won seven of their last nine games with the Senators. In 13 all-time home games in the series, the Kings boast an 11-1-0 record with one tie. Dominance. How about Quick, the goalie everyone's laughing at? (If you haven't seen it, he gave up a horrendous goal last game.) All he's done is go 3-1-0 with a 1.76 GAA and one shutout in four career starts vs. the Sens. I expect Quick to bounce back with a big effort and for the entire team to rally around him. While the Sens have had a few days off, note that they're only 4-7 (-3.1) the past couple of seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Knowing that they won't play again here for another 10 days should add to the Kings' sense of urgency tonight. Given the situation, venue and series history, I expect a win for the Kings and believe that the price is reasonable. 9* |
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10-08-13 | NY Rangers v. San Jose Sharks -159 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks appear poised for a big year and are playing very well out of the gate. They've won both their games by identical 4-1 margins. Here, they catch the Rangers on a West Coast road trip and off a win at LA last night.
Including their win last time out, the Sharks are now 16-8 (+5.2) the last 24 times that they were off a win of two or more goals. During that stretch, they're also 16-6 (+6.8) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. The Sharks fired 51 shots at the net last time out and are outshooting opponents by an average of 43 to 22.5. As Marc-Edouard Vlasic noted: "When you put up 50 shots you get rewarded." With the schedule in their favour, I expect the Sharks to keep on rolling for another day. 7* |
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10-08-13 | New Jersey Devils v. Vancouver Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Canucks and Devils to finish UNDER the total. The Canucks have gotten off to a high-scoring start, the 'over' going 2-0-1 their first three games. I expect that to change this evening.
I'm anticipating Schneider being in net for the visitors. As of this writing, with Brodeur having played last night, that's the expectation and plan. Assuming that's the case, he'll obviously be very motivated to perform well against his old team - and should be very comfortable with the venue. Schneider admitted he'd be trying to his best to outplay Luongo. "...generally you want to be better than the other guy." Likewise for Luongo, who saw Schneider steal his starting job last year. Note that Luongo has allowed a grand total of ZERO goals, his last three "home" starts vs. the Devils. He's got shutouts in four of his last five games against them overall. Even with last night's game topping the total, the UNDER is still 125-77 the last 202 times that the Devils played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. With at least one (and very possibly both) of the goalies rising to the occasion, I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* |
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10-08-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Buffalo Sabres -111 | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Already 0-3 and off to the worst 3-game start in franchise history, the Sabres figure to be desperate for a victory here. Facing an opponent which they have long dominated here, I expect them to get it.
As Buffalo forward Cody Hodgson noted: "We're going to have to figure it out real quick because these losses are piling up." While the Lightning did earn a win last time out, they were fortunate to do so, having been outshot 39-16. Even coach Jon Cooper noted: "I was looking for the police when we left the locker room because I thought we'd get arrested for stealing. We stole two points." The Sabres are 6-3 (+3.5) the past couple of years off three or more consecutive losses, going 7-3 (+5.1) when off three consecutive "unders." I expect their best effort to lead to a much-needed two points. 8* |
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10-08-13 | Florida Panthers v. Philadelphia Flyers -156 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Already 0-3 on the season, the Flyers figure to be desperate here. The Panthers, who were destroyed 7-0 last time out, figure to be the perfect opponent to provide them an opportunity for that first win.
While they've had a couple of days off since the debacle at St. Louis, the Panthers are a money-burning 78-122 (-47!) the last 200 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 5-10 their last 15 in that situation. The Flyers played well out of the gate in their lone home game but couldn't capitalize. Stepping down in class, I expect a full 60-minute effort, en route to an important two points. 7* |
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10-07-13 | New Jersey Devils v. Edmonton Oilers -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EDMONTON. Both teams come in winless and hungry for their first victory.. Playing in their own building and getting one of their top young stars in the lineup, I expect the Oilers to be the team that gets it.
Nugent-Hopkins is back from injury and has stated he's "feeling good." He should provide an emotional boost. The Devils have a number of new faces in their lineup, prompting Brodeur to acknowledge: "It's going to take time a little bit. I think we need to give ourselves a little time here |
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10-05-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Vancouver Canucks -142 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks had a tough opening game, as they had to play out at San Jose. They lost 4-1. Playing their home opener and facing a team they have long dominated here, I expect them to bounce back with a victory. The Oilers lost vs. Winnipeg on Tuesday and haven't played since. Over the last couple of seasons, they're 2-7 (-5.9) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games and 8-16 (-7.4) vs. divisional opponents. Over the last couple of seasons, the Canucks have gone 12-6 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, 17-9 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5 and a dominating 18-7 (+5.9) against divisional opponents. The Canucks haven't dropped their first two games in more than a decade. Needless to say, new coach Tortorella doesn't want to be the first to do so. The Canucks are 9-2 (9-1-1) the last 11 times that they were a host in the series, the Sedin twins picking the Oilers apart. The Canucks were laying a minimum of -170 for 10 of those 11 games and as much as -300 in a couple of them. We're getting a far more reasonable price to work with here, which I feel is providing us with fair value. 9* |
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10-05-13 | Florida Panthers v. St Louis Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis and Florida to finish UNDER the total. These teams both saw their opening game finish above the number. That has helped in giving us a generous number. If they'd both played low-scoring games, this O/U line could easily be five, as most St. Louis games were last season. I believe that's giving us excellent value with what I expect to be a relatively low-scoring affair.
As mentioned, both teams saw their openers finish above the total. However, in both cases the score was only 4-2. In Florida's case, the score was 1-1 seven minutes into the third period and the teams proceeded to score four goals in an 11 minute span, capped off by an empty-netter. In other words, it easily could have been lower-scoring. Including Thursday's opener but excluding "pushes," the Blues have seen the UNDER go 49-27 the past 2+ seasons, including a 7-3 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During the same stretch the UNDER is also 14-2 after they scored four or more goals in their previous game, 19-8 after a win by two or more. While they don't meet too often, these teams have long had a history of playing low-scoring games against each other. I won't be at all surprised if it continues tonight. 10* |
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10-04-13 | Calgary Flames v. Columbus Blue Jackets -178 | 4-3 | Loss | -178 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLUMBUS. The Jackets come into this season with a lot more hope than normal. They were very hot (19-5-3 since early March) down the stretch last year and are now moving over to the Eastern Conference, a big bonus in reduced travel - and perhaps slightly lesser competition.
Columbus forward R.J. Umberger noted: "We expect nothing short of being in the playoffs this year. That's our goal.'' Tonight, the Jackets get to face a team they have dominated - and there aren't many of those - and they catch that same team off a hard-fought shootout loss, one which saw them squander two 3-goal leads. With last night's loss, the Flames are 5-17 their last 22 on the road, when the total was 5.5. I expect the Jackets to be too much for them. 6* |
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10-02-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Philadelphia Flyers -131 | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Situation favors the home team here. The Flyers, who have some important new faces, are playing their season opener. Leafs are off emotional road win vs. archrival Montreal.
Philadelphia got off to a poor start last season and never recovered. I expect this year's team to be highly motivated to avoid that happening again. Coach Peter Laviolette noted the following: "Every team's objective is to get off to a good start. We didn't get one last year. We were disappointed about that, and it put us behind the eight-ball. We scratched and clawed all year, and it didn't work out for us." The Leafs may have won here last season but the Flyers had previously had their number here for years. I expect the home fans to go home happy. 8* personal favorite |
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06-22-13 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 55 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago and Boston to finish UNDER the total. The teams exploded for 11 goals last game. However, I expect things to return to "normal" on Saturday and believe that Wednesday's outburst has worked in our favor.
After we cashed back-to-back "unders" in Game 2 and Game 3, the O/U line dipped from five to 4.5 for Game 5. Now, because of all Wednesday's goals, the line has climbed (at most shops) back to five. Needless to say, there's a huge difference between 4.5 and five. While the Hawks were obviously happy with the outcome, neither team was pleased with how many goals it allowed in Game 4. I expect both to respond with improved defense and goal-tending. The Bruins have seen the UNDER go 52-29-7 the past few seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a 12-4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 35-19-2 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game, 5-2-1 this season. (They also saw the UNDER go 12-7-6 after scoring four or more.) Additionally, it should be noted that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that the Hawks have been tied in a playoff series, most recently a 2-0 final score in Game 3. With the UNDER also a lucrative 36-21-2 (10-3-2 L15) the past couple of seasons when the Hawks played with two day's rest in between games, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. 9* Blue Chip |
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06-22-13 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. With both teams having won twice and with three of four games going to OT, needless to say, its been a very close series. I still feel the Hawks bring more to the table though and believe that they've been a little stronger. With the series shifting back to Chicago, I expect them to have the edge.
The Hawks have had an edge in shots on goal in three of the four games, including both here at Chicago. They fired 97 combined shots at Rask in those two games. Last game, the Hawks had a 47-33 edge in shots. For the season, the Hawks are outscoring teams by a 3.2 to 2.2 margin here, outshooting them 34.7 to 27.2. While the Bruins are 18-15 on the road, the Hawks are a dominating 28-8 here. The Hawks are 19-6 (+9.9) the last 25 times that they scored four or more goals in their previous game. They're also 17-5 their last 22 home games when the O/U line was at five or less. I expect those stats to improve here. 9* main event |
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06-17-13 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Boston Bruins UNDER 5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boston and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. I played on the "under" in Game 2. As you're likely aware, that one finished with a score of 2-1. While every game always has its own character, I see no reason not to expect another low-scoring affair.
Only two goals were scored in regulation in Game 2. That was on the heels of a 3-OT game in Game 1, where it took nearly three full OT periods to notch a single goal. Needless to say, both goalies have been excellent. The Hawks have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of five or less. During that stretch, the UNDER is 6-3-2 when they scored one goal or less in their previous game and 7-2 when they'd played their previous three at home. It should also be noted that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the last four times that the Hawks were tied in a playoff series. That includes a 2-0 mark in these playoffs. Those games (Game 3 and Game 7 in the Detroit series) had scores of 3-1 and 2-1. While the Hawks allow exactly two goals per game on the road, the Bruins allow just 2.1 here at Boston. The Bruins' last three games here had scores of 1-0, 2-1 and 3-1. Their last game vs. the Hawks here finished with a score of 3-0. As far as I'm concerned, all signs point to more of the same on Monday. 8* Main Event |
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06-15-13 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago and Boston to finish UNDER the total. These teams combined for seven goals in the opener. Six of those goals came in the first three periods. However, they needed nearly three more periods to get the seventh goal. I expect that type of stingy defensive play and excellent goal-tending - the type we saw in the overtime periods - to carry over into Game 2.
True, the Hawks tallied four goals in Game 1 and have now seen three straight games top the total. However, it should be noted that the UNDER is 10-4 the past couple of seasons when they'd played three or more consecutive "overs." During that stretch, the UNDER is also 52-38-7 when the Hawks were off a game in which they scored four or more goals. With Thursday and Friday being "off days," it should also be noted that the UNDER is 35-21-2 the past couple of seasons, when the Hawks played with two day's off in between games. That includes a 9-3-2 UNDER mark their last 14 in that situation. As for the Bruins they've seen the UDER go 12-7-2 the last 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. The Bruins allow 2.2 goals per game overall while the Hawks allow 2.1. The Bruins have still seen four of their last six fall below the total. I expect this one to do the same. 9* blue chip |
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06-12-13 | Boston Bruins v. Chicago Blackhawks -143 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Both teams were impressive in the last series. Many seem to view Boston's sweep of the Penguins as a bigger feat than Chicago's five-game series victory over the Kings. However, keep in mind that the Kings were the defending champs - they were also a team that plays a similar type of game than the Bruins. Ultimately, the Hawks were just too much for them. I expect that to be the case in this series too.
To be fair, the Bruins have been getting it done on both sides of the rink - scoring goals and getting great goal-tending. The same can be said for the Hawks though. I believe they bring more to the table. They're loaded, very well-coached and playing at home. The Bruins outscored teams by a 2.7 to 2.3 margin on the road this season. Admittedly, that's pretty good. However, the Hawks outscored teams by a 3.2 to 2.2 margin here at Chicago. That's even better. The Hawks outshot visiting teams by a dominating 33.9 to 26.4 margin here too. While the Bruins are a modest 8-7 when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less, the Hawks are a commanding 16-4 (+8.6) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. All things considered, I believe the price is more than fair. 9* |
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06-03-13 | BOSTON GM2 v. PITTSBURGH GM2 -180 | 6-1 | Loss | -180 | 33 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Penguins certainly didn't fare too well in Game 1. They'd had a long time off in between games though. Now desperate for a win and playing on regular rest, I fully expect them to bounce back with a much better effort.
Even with the Game 1 loss, the Pens are still a dominating 17-4 (+11.4) their last 21 against teams with a winning record. The Pens are also 13-4 (+7.6) the last 17 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The Bruins are only 3-3 (-0.8) off a shutout win and they're also only 7-9 (-.5.6) the past couple of seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Pens are arguably the most talented team in the entire league. I expect the cream to rise to the top here, as Crosby and co. bounce back and improve to 57-25 the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. 7* Main Event |
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06-01-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. Chicago Blackhawks -144 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 40 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I hear a lot of talk about the Kings having the advantage in this series. I'm not buying it though. At the very least, I believe the Hawks will have the edge in the opener.
The Kings may have survived their series against the Sharks but they lost all three of the road games. They're just 9-21 (-13.6) their last 30 away from LA, getting outscored by a 2.9 to 2.2 margin. By comparison, the Hawks are 24-7 (+12) here at Chicago, outscoring teams by a 3.2 to 2.2 margin. The Kings are a particularly brutal 6-21 (-16.6) their last 27 when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 19-8 (+5.4) their last 27 when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. I believe the Hawks will be too much for them and expect home ice to prove significant. 9* personal favorite |
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05-29-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. Chicago Blackhawks -204 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I've backed the Hawks a couple of times in this series and I still believe that they're going to be the team which advances to the next round.
The Hawks are simply loaded with stars. Toews, arguably their best player, didn't get off to a good start in the playoffs. However, with his team down and out, Toews has come to life the last two games. When they score, the Hawks are very tough to beat and they tend to build off that. Indeed, they're 17-4 (+10.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. While the Wings have been outscored on the road this season, the Hawks are outscoring teams by a 3.3 to 2.2 margin here at Chicago. The Wings are only 14-23 (-7.2) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. During the same stretch, the Hawks are 18-8 (+4.4) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. These long-time rivals have played two Game 7s against each other over the years - both back in the 60s. The Hawks won both. I expect history to repeat itself tonight. 6* |
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05-25-13 | DETROIT GM5 v. CHICAGO GM5 -197 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Like most bettors, I typically prefer to avoid prices that are this high. However, unlike some, when I feel that the price should actually be higher - and when I really feel that my team has an extra strong chance of winning, I will pull the trigger on games in this range. That's how I feel here.
The Hawks were the best team in the west all season and they easily won in the first round. The Wings barely snuck into the playoffs and then were fortunate to survive against Anaheim. While the Wings are 14-22 the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less, the Hawks are 17-8 when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. The Hawks, who have dominated divisional opponents in recent seasons, are still 7-2 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. I'm not counting them out yet. 6* personal favorite |
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05-25-13 | NY Rangers v. Boston Bruins UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY and Boston to finish UNDER the total. The last game in this series produced seven goals. I expect a considerably lower-scoring contest here.
While the Bruins allow only 2.2 goals per game at home, the Rangers score only 2.1 on the road. After Game 2 saw seven goals scored, Game 3 saw only three. While that was at MSG, the Rangers have also seen the UNDER go 33-19 (excluding pushes) the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less, including 12-5 the last 17. I expect those stats to improve here. 8* best bet |
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05-24-13 | Ottawa Senators v. Pittsburgh Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ottawa and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. Last game got a little crazy at the end, the Pens erupting for seven goals, the teams combining for 10 goals. I'll be surprised if we even see half that many tonight.
The series has alternated from high-to-low scoring games. The previous high-scoring game was followed by a 2-1 OT win by the Sens. Including that result, the UNDER is 5-2-2 when the Sens are off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 when the Sens were off a loss by more than a goal. Overall, the UNDER is still 32-16-5 in Ottawa games, including 9-4 when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Ottawa's Jason Spezza said this about helping out Anderson tonight and committing to improved defense: ''To expect him to make save after save from point-blank range is unrealistic. We have to do a better job of keeping them to the outside and taking some of the heat off him that way.' While we know they can score, the Pens are also stingier than many give them credit for, allowing just 2.1 goals per game here at Pittsburgh. The UNDER is a respectable 44-35 (55.7%) in games here the past few seasons, when the O/U line was 5.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* blue chip |
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05-23-13 | Chicago Blackhawks -138 v. Detroit Red Wings | 0-2 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Home ice is worth a lot at the betting window. However, in the NHL playoffs, its not always quite as important as is reflected by the price. In many cases, like last night in Ottawa - and tonight at Detroit - we're able to get able to get a superior team at a reasonable price, just because that team is on the road. In this case, we've got arguably the most complete team in the league, in a near "must win" spot - and we're getting them priced as a fairly modest favorite. I feel that's providing us with very fair value.
The Hawks are still 12-5 (+5.1) the last 17 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 7-1 (+5.6) the last eight times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 9* personal favorite |
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05-23-13 | Boston Bruins v. NY Rangers UNDER 5 | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY and Boston to finish UNDER the total. I had the "under" in the last game and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this evening. Yes, we do have to lay some extra juice to play at five. However, five is a whole lot better than 4.5, which this could easily be. As I believe this has a much greater chance of finishing with less than five goals than with more, I feel that extra juice is worth it. The Rangers have seen the UNDER go 8-1-1 the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, the UNDER going 32-15-6 when they were in that situation the last few seasons. During the same stretch, the UNDER is also 7-3-1 when the Rangers were off three consecutive losses. I'm not certain whether or not the Rangers can avoid the sweep - but I do look for them to be "stingy" once again. 8* |
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05-22-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins -138 v. Ottawa Senators | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Senators, who have been dealing with adversity all season, deserve a lot of credit for even getting this far. That said, I believe they're in over their heads here.
The Penguins are the most talented team in the East, if not the league. They've also been playing like it for many weeks now. Crosby is likely the best player in the world - but this Pittsburgh team was so good that it still rolled along without him in the lineup. True, the Sens did rally to win Game 3 here at Ottawa. However, the Pens have been superb on the road all season. (They're 20-8 away from Pittsburgh, outscoring teams by a 3.6 to 2.9 margin.) They know they can't afford to let this series drag on, particularly after seeing the Bruins go up 3-0 in their series last night. |
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05-21-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. San Jose Sharks -129 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. Home ice has been huge for both of these teams this season, so its no huge surprise that the home team has won every game thus far.
The Sharks were 17-7 (17-2-5) here in the regular season and that included a pair of wins over Los Angeles. They're undefeated here in the playoffs. Conversely, the Kings were only 8-16 (8-12-4) away from LA this season. While the Kings are a dismal 6-19 (-14.6) the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of five or less, the Sharks are 30-14 (+7) the last 44 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five or less. I expect home ice to again prove significant and given the home/road stats, I feel that the price is very fair. 9* |
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05-21-13 | Boston Bruins v. NY Rangers UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY and Boston to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game last time out. However, I'm not expecting to see another one this evening.
Boston has allowed two or fewer goals in four of its last five games. For the season, the Bruins are allowing 2.3 overall and 2.4 on the road. The Rangers finished off the last series with two shutout victories. Last game was the first time all playoffs that they allowed more than three goals. They're allowing 2.3 goals per game on the season and just 2.1 here at New York. Even including the Game 2 result, the UNDER is still a profitable 14-8-4 the last 26 times that the Rangers were facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. With the UNDER also at 10-4-1 the last 15 times that the Bruins scored four or more goals in their previous game, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. 10* |
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05-21-13 | Boston Bruins v. NY Rangers -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Rangers have been a different team on home ice. They're down 2-0 but they've been here before. Just last series, in fact. The responded by winning Game 3 and Game 4, here at MSG.
Coach Tortorella had this to say: "You don't want to be down 2-0. We know what hole we're in, but by no means is this a really bad thing. We need to win a game and try to get momentum on our side. Last year, we had to win a couple in a row and we were going back and forth with wins and losses. We've been in this situation for a long time the past couple of years. I am not worried about that. I just want to make sure we correct the things we need to correct, and I think we'll be OK." Even with the Game 2 win, the Bruins are still just 5-8 (-5.6) the last 13 times that they were leading in a playoff series. The Rangers beat the Bruins here back in January and have outscored teams by a 3.2 to 2.1 margin here on the season. The Rangers are 30-16 (+11) the last few seasons, after allowing four or more goals, going 6-0 their last six in that situation. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. 9* |
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05-19-13 | NY RANGERS GM2 v. BOSTON GM2 UNDER 5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -131 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Rangers and Bruins to finish UNDER the total. Game 1 finished with exactly five goals. That'll happen quite often, as five is a very common final combined score. However, in this case, I believe we've got a much better chance of finishing below that number than above it.
The Bruins allow just 2.2 goals per game here. They've seen the UNDER go 15-10-4 here on the season. The Rangers score only 2.1 goals per game on the road. The UNDER is 16-6-7 in their games away from MSG, including a 12-4-7 mark when the O/U line was five or less. Their playoff games are averaging 4.1 goals. The Rangers have also seen the UNDER go 14-7-4 the last 25 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. With the UNDER also at 14-5-5 their last 24 "second round" playoff games, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair Sunday afternoon. 10* best bet |
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05-18-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. San Jose Sharks -129 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks are in a hole but I'm not ready to count them out quite yet. The Sharks had an edge in overall shots in the two games at LA. They easily could be 1-1 here, if not better. Now, they get to play at home. Not only are they much better at home but the Kings aren't typically as strong on the road.
The Sharks are 19-7 at home. They outscore teams by a 3.2 to 2.1 margin here. Conversely, the Kings are 8-19 on the road, getting outscored by a 3.0 to 2.4 margin. While the Kings are 6-18 (-13.6) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less, the Sharks are 29-14 (+5.9) their last 43 when playing at home with an O/U line of five or less. The Sharks are 8-3 the last 11 times that they hosted the Kings, going 34-16 the last 50. I expect them to continue that home ice series dominance here. *10 personal favorite |
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05-16-13 | SAN JOSE GM2 +1.5 v. LOS ANGELES GM2 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing SJ on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals.) We're being asked to lay greater than -200 to play the Sharks on the puck-line. While I realize that's not everyone's "cup of tea," I believe the price could easily be higher.
Down a game, the Sharks are going to be desperate. I expect their best effort. Prior to the (2-0) Game 1 loss, the previous two reg. season meetings between these teams were both decided by a single goal. In fact, five of the previous six meetings between these teams were decided by a single goal or less. Prior to the Game 1 loss, the Sharks were on a 9-4 run. A closer look reveals that all four losses were by a singe goal. In other words, they'd gone 13 straight games without losing by more than a goal. I won't be at all surprised by an "upset" but will pay for the added insurance 1.5 goals. 6* blue marlin |
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05-12-13 | Detroit Red Wings v. Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Anaheim and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Friday's game finished with a final score of 4-3, in favor of the Wings. That game could have easily been lower-scoring though as it was 1-1 entering the third period and was still 3-1 late in the period. (The Ducks got two goals in the final 3.5 minutes to force OT.) I expect a lower-scoring affair on Monday.
Friday's game marked just the 14th time all season (and first in the playoffs) that the Ducks had allowed more than three goals. They typically respond with a big defensive effort in their next game. In fact, the UNDER is 11-2 when the Ducks had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wings have seen the UNDER go 8-4 after scoring four or more in their previous game. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 11-6-2 when the Ducks were playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss. While the UNDER has gone just 1-1-1 in the three playoff games here, if we go back further we find the UNDER at 25-15-6 the last 46 times that the Wings played here. With everything on the line, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 10* |
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05-10-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Boston Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The difference between five and 5.5 is quite significant when betting on hockey totals, as many games land right on the number five. Tonight, we're getting a 5.5, after every previous game in the series had a five. While we do have to lay some extra juice, I feel that's providing us with value - as I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring contest.
The Bruins have seen the UNDER go 42-29 the past 71 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That includes an 8-4 mark this season. The Bruins have also seen the UNDER go 49-2-6 the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Games are averaging less than 5.5 goals (5.2) here this season and I look for tonight's final combined score to stay below that mark once again. 9* blue chip |
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05-09-13 | NY Islanders v. Pittsburgh Penguins -214 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pens have already received a bigger fight than many were expecting. That's kept this price lower than it could have been. That might sound funny, when they are laying greater than -200. However, this price is still lower than the Chicago price - and I feel it could easily be closer to the -300 range.
The Pens are 57-37 the last few seasons, when playing with "revenge." That includes an 11-4 (+3.6) their last 15 in that role. They're also 16-7 (+4.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, going 60-32 (+12.5) in that situation the past few seasons. The Pens are 6-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or greater while the Isles are only 1-3 when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or greater. I expect the "cream to rise to the top" and the Pens to take care of business. 6* |
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05-08-13 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -131 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the RANGERS. The home team has won every game so far in this series. I expect that trend to continue for at least another night. Down 2-0 in games, the Rangers fell behind early in Game 3. They didn't fold though, eventually battling back for the win. Now they've got confidence and momentum. While I also respect the Capitals, this is a Rangers team, which I feel, is built for the playoffs. They've outscored teams by a commanding 3.2 to 2.2 margin here this season, outshooting them by an average of 32.1 to 27.5. On the other hand, the Caps give up three goals a game on the road and get outshot 33.1 to 27.3. 9* personal favorite
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05-07-13 | VANCOUVER GM4 v. SAN JOSE GM4 UNDER 5 | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Vancouver and SJ to finish UNDER the total. The Canucks are on the verge of elimination here. I'm not sure whether or not they'll avoid the sweep. However, I do expect a better defensive effort and in goal.
The Canucks were also down 3-0 in the playoffs last year. Game 4 finished with four combined goals, a 3-1 win. Despite the Game 3 result, the UNDER remains a profitable 13-6-5 when the Canucks attempted to avenge an earlier loss. As for the Sharks, they've seen the UNDER go 6-3-3 after a win by two or more goals and 8-4-1 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Over the long-term, the UNDER is 224-163-24 their last 411 in that situation. That's 57.88% over 400+ plays. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 9* |
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05-07-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. Ottawa Senators UNDER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. After a high-scoring Game 1, we saw a low-scoring Game 2. Off a high-scoring Game 3, I expect a low-scoring Game 4.
The UNDER remains a lucrative 43-23-8 in Ottawa's last 74 first round playoff games and 30-13-8 in the Sens' 2013 games overall. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 20-8-2 the last 32 times that they had a lead in a playoff series. After giving up six last time and being "insulted" in the process, the Canadiens should be determined to improve defensively. The UNDER is 34-23-4 the past few seasons, after the Habs gave up four or more goals in their previous game. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 9* |
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05-07-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. NY Islanders UNDER 6 | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh and New York to finish UNDER the total. This number has climbed from 5.5 to six. With all due respect to Crosby and co, I feel that's too high for a playoff game.
The Isles have seen the UNDER go 43-34-4 the past few seasons, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game, 10-7-1 this season. The Isles have only had one game with an O/U line of six in recent weeks. That game (4/25 vs. Philly) finished with a final score of 2-1. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 9* |
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05-06-13 | Anaheim Ducks v. Detroit Red Wings -123 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. Many are writing the Wings off in this one. However, I'm not counting them out yet.
As coach Babcock noted yesterday: ''I'm going to say we were right there knocking on the door and we're going to win tomorrow and make it a best-of-three." The Wings are 9-3 (+6.3) the last dozen times that they failed to score more than one goal in their previous game. I expect their best effort this evening and feel that the low price tag is more than fair. 8* annihilator |
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05-06-13 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. The Capitals won both games at Washington. I'm not counting the Rangers out yet though. Back in their own building and playing a "must win" game, I expect the Rangers to respond with their best effort.
While they've had trouble on the road all season, the Rangers are an entirely different team here at MSG. In fact, they're 16-8 (16-6-2) here on the season. That's a lot better than the Caps' 12-12 (12-10-2) mark away from Washington. Overall, the Rangers outscored teams by a commanding 3.2 to 2.1 margin here. The Rangers have been particularly strong here recently. In fact, they've won six straight games here. They won those games by a combined score of 27-7! The Rangers have taken three of the last four as a host against the Caps. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Rangers are still 63-48 (+9.4) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. When asked if the Rangers were discouraged, Rangers coach John Tortorella had this to say: "That is the furthest thing as a worry for me. This is a good group of guys, and last time I remember you need four games to win a series. Our guys are fully aware of that." 9* personal favorite |
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05-05-13 | MONTREAL GM3 v. OTTAWA GM3 UNDER 5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. I've played on the "under" in each of the first two matchups, going 1-1. (Also won with Montreal in Game 2.) Once again, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair.
Both goalies are excellent. Both are capable of dominating. The last meeting between these teams, here at Ottawa, finished with a score of 2-1. Looking back further finds the UNDER at 5-3-1 since 2010, when the Sens have hosted the Habs. The Sens have been an "under machine" at home all season and games here are averaging only 4.4 goals. If this game is low-scoring, as I expect it to be, I won't be surprised to see the Game 4 O/U line dip to 4.5. For now, it remains at five. While we do have to lay a little extra juice to play at five, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. 10* blue chip |
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05-04-13 | TORONTO GM2 +1.5 v. BOSTON GM2 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing TORONTO on the Puck-Line. (+1.5 goals) The Bruins are the biggest (money-line) favorite on the Saturday NHL board. As a result, we're able to get the Leafs at +1.5 goals at quite a reasonable price.
That +1.5 goals can really make a difference. Consider that two of yesterday's four games were decided by a single goal. That was also the case the previous day. True, Boston did win Game 1 in convincing fashion. However, heading into Saturday's action, every series which has played more than one game has seen at least one of those games decided by a single goal and/or has seen the team that lost Game 1 come back and win Game 2. The Leafs had a great year and they fought very hard to get here. Note that three of four regular season meetings were decided by a single goal. (The only one that wasn't was a 4-2 game which saw an empty net goal scored with 15 seconds remaining.) The Leafs were 10-7 (+4.2) vs. the money-line this season, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game this season. I feel that the extra day off in between games will help the Leafs and I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort, en route to AT LEAST a "cover." 7* personal favorite |
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05-03-13 | SAN JOSE GM2 v. VANCOUVER GM2 -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. Home ice didn't help the Canucks in the opener, as they fell by a 3-1 margin. Now with their backs against the wall, I expect the Canucks to play with urgency and to even up the series.
The Sharks are a good team and I respect them. However, one can't ignore the fact that they're 9-16 on the road, outscored by a 2.7 to 2.2 margin in those games. The Canucks are 31-11 (+17) the past few seasons, when facing a team that beat them at Vancouver in the previous meeting. This is a loaded team, one which won the President's Trophy in the previous two seasons. I'm not counting them out yet. 9* personal favorite |
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05-03-13 | OTTAWA GM2 v. MONTREAL GM2 -143 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Senators grabbed yesterday's series opener. I expect the revenge-minded Canadiens to settle the score this evening.
The Canadiens had a 50-31 edge in shots last night. That type of effort will lead to a victory more often than not. Seeing one of their players go down with a concussion combined with being desperate to avoid going down 0-2, should ensure we get the Habs' best effort tonight. The Canadiens are 7-2 (+6.4) the last nine times that they played the second of back-to-back games, going 8-4 (+2.9) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The Habs are still outscoring teams by a 2.9 to 2.4 margin here. I expect them to be the hungrier team and that to lead to a very important win. 8* feast |
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05-03-13 | OTTAWA GM2 v. MONTREAL GM2 UNDER 5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game finished above the total, a 4-2 win for the Senators. Anderson was stellar in goal for the Sens, making 48 saves. I expect continued strong goal-tending this evening, this time also coming from the Montreal.
The UNDER is 33-23-5 the past few seasons, after the Canadiens allowed four or more goals in their previous game. Despite last night's result, the Sens have still seen the UNDER go 42-22-8 their last 70+ playoff games, including a 19-8-4 UNDER mark when leading in a playoff series. Of course, the Sens have been a profitable Under team all season, the UNDER going 29-12-8. Note that while the line is still five, the price on the UNDER is much better than it was yesterday. With the UNDER also at 6-2-3 on the season, after the Sens scored four or more goals, I'm expecting a defensive affair. 10* blue chip |
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05-02-13 | OTTAWA GM1 v. MONTREAL GM1 UNDER 5 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. When playing an O/U line of five, there's always a fairly good chance of a "push." That said, I feel this one has a much greater chance of finishing with five or fewer combined goals than it does with five or more.
The UNDER is 15-9 on the season, here at Montreal. Since the Sens played a 4-3 game here on 3/19, the UNDER has gone 8-2 here. Since that 3/19 game here, the Sens have seen the UNDER go 13-3-2 overall. That includes a 10-1 mark their last 11. True, their most recent game did top the total, a 4-2 win over Boston on the final day of the regular season. However, keep in mind that the UNDER is 6-1-3 after the Sens scored four or more goals in their previous game and 7-3-3 when they were off a win by two or more goals. The Sens have seen the UNDER go 3-1-3 in the first round the last couple of seasons and 42-21-8 their last 71 playoff games overall. All six of this year's playoff games have finished with five or fewer goals thus far, including four of them at five or less. Those six games have averaged exactly four combined goals. With a pair of very capable goalies between the pipes, this figures to be another relatively low-scoring series. That should start this evening. 8* best bet |
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05-01-13 | San Jose Sharks v. Vancouver Canucks -131 | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The home team won all three games in yesterday's NHL playoff action. I expect home ice to again provide an advantage here.
The Sharks were 8-16 (8-14-2) on the road. The Canucks were 15-9 (15-6-3) here at Vancouver. The Canucks outscored teams by a 2.9 to 2.2 margin here. The Sharks were outscored by an average margin of 2.8 to 2.1 on the road. The Sharks had their way with the Canucks in the regular season. However, that was also true of the Kings against the Blues and we saw St. Louis prove that the playoffs are an entirely new season. The Canucks are 61-29 (+15.8) the past few seasons, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the last meeting. During that time, they're also 14-3 (+8.8) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. While I respect both teams, considering their home/road records, I feel the price on Vancouver is more than fair. 8* |
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04-30-13 | Los Angeles Kings v. St Louis Blues -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. As the defending champions, the Kings certainly deserve respect. That said, this is an entirely different season and I feel that the Kings are getting a little "too much" respect here.
Lets not forget that the Kings were only 8-16 (8-12-4) on the road this season, getting outscored by an average margin of 3.1 to 2.5. Lets also keep in mind that the Blues were 15-9 (15-8-1) at home, oustscoring teams by a 2.5 to 2.2 margin. The Blues, who were swept by the Kings in the playoffs last season (and again this regular season) are peaking at the right time. They've won 12 of their last 15. Needless to say, they feel that they've got a score to settle. Coach Hitchcock had this to say: "'Look, we haven't beaten them in two years. I think we're really hungry for this series ..." While the Kings have the "playoff experience," the Blues have home ice advantage tonight and have something to prove. I believe that they're better than the team that the Kings beat last season and I look for them to demonstrate it tonight. 8* |
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04-27-13 | Chicago Blackhawks v. St Louis Blues -157 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Hawks were the "best in the west" during this regular season and are admittedly a very strong team. However, the Blues are playing as well as any team of late and I like how this one sets up for them.
A 4-1 victory on Thursday brought the Blues to 11-3 on the month, including five straight victories at home. That surge has given them a chance to clinch home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. However, to guarantee that will happen, they need a victory today. Conversely, the Hawks already have the #1 seed wrapped up. In other words, this is a bigger game for the Blues. Blues coach Ken Hitchcock had this to say: "It's an important game. You move on one way or the other, but it's an important game. Hitchcock went on to say: "Chicago's arguably the best team in a long time in the league the way they've played. We're going to have to be at our best to win the hockey game. ... It's obviously more important for us than it is for them." In addition to needing the game more and having home ice advantage, the Blues also have the schedule in their favor. They had yesterday off while the Hawks are off a relatively hard-fought win vs. Calgary last night. Admittedly, Chicago has fared very well when playing the second of back-to-back games. However, its possible the Hawks may be without Toews (arguably their best player) here. St. Louis goalie Brian Elliott has been outstanding of late, winning 10 of his last 12 games with a 1.30 GAA and three shutouts. He's started every time during the five-game home winning streak, compiling a 0.97 GAA. The Blues, who were beaten by the Hawks here less than two weeks ago and who haven't lost here since, are 7-2 the last nine times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. I expect them to rise to the occasion, earning an important two points. *8 Main Event |
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04-25-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Dallas Stars -125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. This is a huge game for both teams, arguably bigger for the Stars. With it being played at Dallas, I expect the Stars to have the advantage.
With the Wings winning last night, both these teams are currently on the outside looking in. The Jackets, currently in ninth, trail the Wings by one point. The Stars, currently in 10th, are four points back of the Wings. In other words, the Stars' chances are pretty slim. That said, they're not mathematically eliminated yet - although they will be with a loss tonight. Misery loves company. Even if the Stars don't make the playoffs, beating Columbus will help to ensure that the Jackets don't either. The fact that they've lost four straight on the road is a big reason why the Stars find themselves in such a precarious situation. They've been a much better team here at home though. A look at the Stars' last three home games show that they've gone 3-0 while beating three really good (Vancouver, San Jose, LA) teams. They won those games by a combined score of 12-3, too. The Jackets have certainly improved in recent weeks. However, they're still 9-14 on the road and they've still been outscored by a 2.9 to 2.3 margin when playing away from Columbus. The Stars outshot the Jackets 39-20 the last meeting, winning 2-1. While the playoffs are obviously a longshot, I expect their best effort tonight en route to a critical two points. 10* personal favorite |
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04-25-13 | NY Rangers v. Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -142 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY and Carolina to finish UNDER the total. We have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel it will prove to be well worth it.
When playing away from MSG, the Rangers typically have an O/U line of five, rather than 5.5. That's not surprising, given that this season's road games have averaged only 4.6 combined goals. When they do see an O/U line of 5.5 on the road, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five and 29-14 the past few seasons. The Canes scored four goals last time out, winning 4-3. However, they'd managed three or fewer goals in each of their previous four games. In fact, prior to last game, they'd scored four or less in 19 of their previous 20 games. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3 when the Canes had scored four or more goals in their previous game. Both 2013 meetings between these clubs have produced five or fewer combined goals. I believe this one has an excellent shot at doing the same. 8* |
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04-24-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Tampa Bay Lightning -107 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TAMPA. While the Leafs have enjoyed a far more successful season, I believe that the Lightning will be the "hungrier" team this evening. I expect that to translate to a victory.
The Leafs are saying all the right things about playing hard and taking this game seriously. However, after securing their first playoff berth in nearly a decade, I believe that they're ripe for a letdown. Perhaps more than any other city, Toronto loves its hockey team. Fans of the Leafs have suffered for my entire life and therefore making the playoffs is a huge deal. Getting up for a game vs. a non-playoff team figures to be a challenge. Conversely, playing their final home game vs. a "playoff team," (TB hosts Florida on Saturday but the Panthers aren't going to the playoffs) and trying to snap an extended losing streak, I expect the Lightning to be quite motivated. Lightning coach Jon Cooper had this to say: "Is it human nature to look and see our last game is Saturday? Yeah. It's probably a little deflating for some of these guys to know we're out of it, but for me it's pride. I want to see who's got that fire in the belly. Guys are playing for jobs next year. We want to see, regardless of where you are in the standings, who's going to bring it every night." I expect the Lightning to play with "more fire in their belly" and for them to end their losing streak. 9* best bet |
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04-23-13 | Dallas Stars v. San Jose Sharks -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Stars have had their way with the Sharks this season, winning all three meetings. I expect that to provide the Sharks, who haven't been swept by the Stars in a decade, with some extra incentive tonight.
True, the Stars are desperate for points. That hasn't helped them lately though, as they've dropped three of their last four, including two straight. The Sharks lost last time out but are still 11-4 (11-3-1) their last 15 games. They've only lost two home games in regulation this entire season. The Sharks are outscoring teams by a 3.0 to 2.0 margin here at home, outshooting them by a 32.3 to 28.5 margin. On the other hand, the Stars are being outscored on the road and being outshot by a 29.7 to 26 margin. Note that the Sharks are 26-14 the last 40 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five or less. While the price might seem a little steep, keep in mind that the Sharks are laying -210 when they hosted the Stars a few weeks ago. Its payback time. 7* |
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04-23-13 | Calgary Flames v. Nashville Predators -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. These teams are both "playing out the string." In such cases, the more motivated team is often the team which comes away with the two points. Tonight, I expect the Predators to be the hungrier squad.
The Preds are currently mired in an extended slump and have certainly endured a difficult season. I still believe that they're more talented than the version of the Flames which they'll face tonight though. Knowing that this is their home finale, I expect them to go all out, in order to give the home fans one last victory. Coach Barry Trotz noted: "Everybody's pushing to try to get a win.'' Admittedly, the Flames have played some of their best hockey recently. However, each of their recent victories has come when they had something to really play for. Last game, they faced Minnesota. Not only are the Wild fighting for the playoffs, they also had beaten the Flames, at Calgary, less than a week previous. Prior to that, the Flames beat Anaheim, another "playoff team" and a game that was being billed as Kiprusoff's last game in front of the Calgary faithful. Other recent wins have all come against "playoff teams" or against Edmonton, a hated rival which had embarrassed them to start the month. The Flames, who recently traded Iginla and who are without leading goal scorer Curtis Glencross, have dropped three straight on the road in the series. Note that the Flames are a horrible 23-44 (-24.7) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a 4-11 mark their last 15 in that situation. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne is likely to get the start, considering that he's 4-1-0 with a 1.96 GAA in his last six starts vs the Flames. Either way, I fully expect the Preds' best effort and for that to result in a "W." 10* GOY |
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04-22-13 | Phoenix Coyotes v. Detroit Red Wings -149 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DETROIT. These teams both desperately need a win here. With the game being played at Detroit, I expect the Wings to have the advantage.
The Coyotes have struggled (6-16) away from Phoenix all season long. Scoring 2.1 goals per game (while allowing 2.8) doesn't help matters. Detroit's captain Henrik Zetterberg noted: "We don't care how our home record is now. We know we got to win games to get into the postseason. Of course, we're happy to be at home than on the road, but we got to go in and focus on Monday." The Wings are 7-3 (+4.1) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The Coyotes are an ugly 5-12 (-5.9) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. Throw in the fact that the Wings are 5-0 the last five times that they were a host in this series and 13-4 the last 17 and I feel that this price is more than fair. *9 personal favorite |
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04-22-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. Ottawa Senators UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Ottawa and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. I rarely lay this much juice on a total. However, in this case I feel that the high price tag is warranted.
The Senators have seen seven straight games produce five or fewer combined goals. Its no coincidence that streak started when Anderson returned. However, even without Anderson in between the pipes, this Ottawa team has been involved in low-scoring games. Eleven of the Sens' last 12 games have finished with five or fewer combined goals. In fact, the UNDER is 26-10-7 on the season. That includes a 9-3 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. For the season, games here at Ottawa have averaged a mere 4.4 goals. That includes a 2-1 game vs. the Pens, in the lone meeting between these teams here. While the Pens have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 after a winning streak of three or more games, the UNDER is also 7-2-1 after the Sens scored one goal or less and 4-0-1 after a loss by two or more goals. More of the same tonight .7* |
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04-20-13 | Washington Capitals v. Montreal Canadiens -142 | 5-1 | Loss | -142 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MONTREAL. These teams enter this evening's game on different notes. The Capitals had been on an extended winning streak but lost 3-1 vs. Ottawa last time out. Conversely, the Canadiens had been blown out three games in a row, before winning 3-2 vs. Tampa last time out. I expect the Habs to build off that victory tonight, while the Caps lose their second straight.
Its true that the road team has won both this season's meetings. However, that doesn't mean that home ice isn't important to both these teams. The Habs are outscoring teams by a 3.0 to 2.3 margin here at Montreal this season, outshooting their guests by a 30.3 to 26.5 margin. On the other hand, the Caps are getting outshot by a 33.1 to 27.2 margin outside of Washington, getting outscored by a 3.0 to 2.9 margin in those games. Note that Washington, which has a huge game vs. Winnipeg (possible look-ahead situation) on deck, is only 22-28 (-13.8) after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. Off the big win last time, Montreal's Brian Gionta had this to say: "It's big for our confidence ..." I expect the Canadiens, who are trying to hold off Boston for top spot in the Northeast, to build momentum from that win, en route to earning another important two points here. 9* personal favorite |
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04-18-13 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Los Angeles Kings -184 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the LA KINGS. The Jackets are hot right now and they earned another important win at Anaheim last night. I expect them to have considerably more trouble against the defending champs tonight though.
Last night's game vs. the Ducks went to OT. So, it was certainly of the hard-fought variety. In fact, that's three straight games that the Jackets have played, which were decided after regulation. This will now be their fifth game in the past seven days, about as grueling a stretch as you'll get in the NHL. (The Kings will be playing just their third game during the same stretch.) Note that Columbus is 15-29 (-7.2) its last 44 when playing in a second of back-to-back games situation. The Kings, who had yesterday off, have handled the Jackets. They're 2-0 in the season series, outshooting them by a combined 53-33 margin. In the lone game here at LA, the Jackets managed a mere 13 shots. Including that 2/15 victory, the Kings are 16-5 (+7.8) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. With the schedule in their favor, I expect the champs to improve on those stats this evening. 8* blue marlin |
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04-17-13 | Montreal Canadiens v. Pittsburgh Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Montreal and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. After a stretch which saw five of their six games stay below the number, the Canadiens have seen each of their last three games top the total. Determined to clean up their number of goals allowed and facing a Pittsburgh team which has seen the UNDER go 7-3 its last 10, I expect things to return to "normal" for Montreal this evening.
Comments from the Canadiens' players and coach indicate that the Habs will be taking this game seriously. That starts with improving the number of goals allowed. Montreal coach Michel Therrien had this to say: "Since we clinched, our intensity and concentration level, our attention to detail and our work ethic, have fallen a lot. It's a game of pride. You have to come to the rink ready to play. That's what we were not doing the last two games. It's disappointing.'' Montreal defenseman Francis Bouillon added: "We're not panicking, but we have to be able to learn from this. It's been easy to play against us lately and we want to be able to head into the playoffs with more wins under our belt. We have to focus on these next games that are coming up." Even after Monday's debacle, the UNDER is still 32-22-4 the past few seasons, after Montreal has allowed four or more goals in its previous game. The Penguins, who have seen the UNDER go 12-5-1 after winning three or more consecutive games, have seen the UNDER go 9-4 this season, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That includes a 1-0 game vs. these same Canadiens in this season's lone meeting here. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that the Pens were a host in this series, including a 4-1 mark the last five. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. 10* blue chip |
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04-16-13 | Vancouver Canucks v. St Louis Blues -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Its entirely possible that these teams could meet in the first round of the postseason. First, however, the Blues need to make sure that they're even in the playoffs. That being the case, I expect them to be a little more hungry than their guests tonight.
Of course, playing on home ice - and having a scheduling advantage - should also work in the Blues favor. While the Canucks played last night, the Blues have been off since Sunday. With an O/U line of five, this is expected to be a fairly low-scoring game. Note that the Canucks are only 19-21 (-9) the last 40 times that they played a game with an O/U line of five or less. On the other hand, during that same stretch, the Blues are 38-21 (+5.4) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five or less. While they've split this season's meetings (both at Vancouver) the Blues have taken two of the last three as a host in this series. I expect them to take care of business again tonight. 9* Western Conf. Personal Fav. |
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04-16-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Washington Capitals -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Leafs beat me last night. However, with the exception of their goalie, they really didn't play that well. In fact, they were outshot by a 32-13 margin. They're up against a much hotter team tonight and I expect them to stumble.
While they were up against a struggling New Jersey team last night, the Leafs are now taking on a red hot Capitals squad. Indeed, the Caps have won seven straight and are 11-2 their last 13. Note that the Leafs are 19-29 (-9.9) the past couple of seasons, off a win by two or more goals. During that stretch, they're also just 14-24 (-6.8) when playing their second game in two days. After losing both this season's meetings vs. the Leafs, we should see a motivated effort from the Caps tonight, as they look to avoid the season sweep. Of course, the Caps also still need to wrap up the division title - as there's a possibility that they'll miss the playoffs if they don't. I expect them to keep on rolling, as they improve to 9-3 the last 12 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. 9* Eastern Conf GOM |
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04-15-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Montreal to finish UNDER the total. It would appear that the Flyers have accepted the fact that they aren't going to the playoffs this year, as they have showed very little fight over the past week. Philly has lost four in a row, and they have only found the net three times in those four losses. All four of those games finished with the total going under 5.5 goals. It isn't going to be easy to break out of their goal-scoring slump against a stingy Habs team that is in the middle of a battle with the Bruins for the lead in the Northeast. Think the Flyers can't possibly keep going "under" the total? Consider that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times that they'd seen their previous three (or more) games stay below the total. Also, note that the UNDER is now 7-3 the last 10 times that the Flyers scored one goal or less in their previous game. Montreal sits just one point ahead of Boston in the division, so this is a big game with playoff implications for the home team. Coming off an embarrassing 5-1 loss to the Maple Leafs should serve as added motivation for the Habs to improve defensively. Note that the UNDER is 32-21-4 the past few seasons, when the Canadiens had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 34-21 when the Habs have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. That includes a 10-2 mark this season. Overall, games are averaging just 5.1 goals here on the season, visiting teams recording less than 26 shots per game. Montreal has been rock solid defensively this season, and they have been getting great goaltending from both Carey Price and Peter Budaj. While they've had a couple of high-scoring tilts on the road, the Canadiens have played seven consecutive low scoring games at home, with each of those games going under the total. The Habs may also have revenge on their minds, after losing 5-3 in Philadelphia the last time they faced these Flyers. I'm expecting to see a gritty defensive effort from the Canadiens, as each point is so important for them right now. We should see another low scoring hockey game at the Bell Center tonight and I believe the current line is providing us with very fair value. 10* best bet |
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04-15-13 | New Jersey Devils +1.5 v. Toronto Maple Leafs | 0-2 | Loss | -230 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the DEVILS on the puck-line. The Devils desperately need two points in order to keep their slim hopes of making the playoffs alive.
The Leafs are coming off a huge win over Montreal, blowing out the Habs 5-1 on Saturday night. Coming off such an emotional victory over their arch-rivals, this could be a spot where Toronto suffers a let down. The Leafs' current position in the standings doesn't give them any reason for urgency, as they don't have any real chance of earning home ice in the first round, but are also relatively comfortably ahead of the teams behind them. While they'd claim otherwise, the number one priority for the Leafs right now is likely just staying healthy, and avoiding any injuries before they head into the playoffs. Given the success that Toronto has had against New Jersey in recent meetings, the Leafs could get caught looking past the Devils in this spot. Toronto hasn't suffered a defeat in any of it's last five meetings with New Jersey, and the Leafs are 5-0-4 at home versus the Devils in their last nine. Even if they don't believe the playoffs are a reality, the fact that they've been beaten by the Leafs each time - and the the fact that they are trying to snap their skid - should provide the Devils will plenty of motivation here. Toronto will play on the road in Washington tomorrow night. That game figures to have more meaning, as it will be against a team that the Leafs may meet in the playoffs. While the Devils have lost nine straight, four of those losses came in overtime or shootouts, and seven of those nine games were decided by just one goal. It's fair to say that New Jersey has been a lot more competitive than its 0-9 record over the past few weeks indicates. Note that the Devils outshot Ottawa 33-11 last game. That type of effort will generally lead to a win. Goalie Martin Brodeur commented: It's been tough because the guys, they care, and they are playing hard. when you go out there and execute what you are supposed to do and you come back with nothing - what is it, eight or nine games in a row - it's just a tough way to play hockey.'' Note that prior to dominating the Sens and losing by two, the Devils had seen four straight games decided by a single goal. Likewise, prior to beating up on Montreal, the Leafs had seen three straight decided by a single goal. Four of the last five meetings in this series, including one last week, have also been decided by a single goal. I believe that this is will be a good spot for the Devils to get the monkey off their back and put an end to this losing skid. However, given all their recent 1-goal losses, I'm willing to lay the extra wood in order to get an added "insurance" goal to work with. 6* blue marlin |
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04-13-13 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Washington Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tampa Bay and Washington to finish UNDER the total. The Capitals are coming off six straight victories, however they are clinging to a two point lead, with Winnipeg hot on their heels in the battle for the final playoff spot in the East.
The Caps host the Lightning at the Verizon Center on Saturday, and they will look to continue their recent success at home against Tampa. Washington has taken two of the three previous meetings this season, and four straight home meetings dating back to 2011. Previous meetings between these teams have often been high scoring games. However with so much at stake in this contest, I expect that trend to come to an end here. While the Lightning have played their fair share of high scoring hockey games this season, ranking second in the NHL in goals scored, it has been a different story versus divisional opponents. Tampa has seen the total fall below the number in six of it's last seven games versus teams within the Southeast Division. A few stats to consider. Excluding "pushes," (none of which finished with more than 6) the Caps have seen the UNDER go 11-7 the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of six or more. During that stretch, the UNDER is also 21-11 when the Caps have won three or more consecutive games and 31-19 when they were off a win by two or more goals. Prior to their defeat in Pittsburgh on Thursday, the Lightning had not seen the total go over six in any of their previous five games, and three of those five saw the total land on five goals. With tonight's total sitting at six, it's expected that these two teams are going to light the lamp a few times tonight. (Note that recent meetings have had an O/U line of 5.5) I don't expect the Caps to allow a lot of scoring chances in this must win though and if they manage to jump out to an early lead, we can expect them to lock things down defensively. Don't be surprised to see a low scoring defensive battle in the nation's capital tonight. 9* |
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04-12-13 | Ottawa Senators v. New Jersey Devils -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. The Devils are still alive in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, but they face a do or die situation Friday. New Jersey sits four points out of eighth place and it host sOttawa, one of the few teams the Devils still have a chance to catch.
Ottawa played a tough road game last night in Philadelphia, scoring late in the third to get past the Flyers by a score of 3-1. Prior to last night's victory, the Sens had lost five straight. Injuries have taken their toll on the Senators, who are still without Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson and Milan Michalek. The Sens have a history of struggling in New Jersey, with only two wins in their last 10 visits. This will be their sixth consecutive road game, as well as their second in as many nights. Clearly, they aren't in an ideal spot here. Note that NJ is 29-20 (+9.3) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in its previous game. The Sens had to dig deep for last night's victory and it must feel like a weight off their shoulders snapping their losing skid. Colin Greening scored the game winning goal, and he commented: "Because of the situation we're in, we're just so happy to get out of here with two points," It's going to be a lot tougher to match that level of intensity playing on back to back nights, against an opponent that is also in a desperate spot. The Devils should prove to be too much for the Sens to handle in this game. 9* Personal Favorite |
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04-11-13 | NY Islanders v. Boston Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boston and New York to finish UNDER the total. The Bruins are off a high-scoring game (5-4 win) last night. I expect a considerably lower-scoring contest this evening.
This will be just the sixth time that the Bruins have played back-to-back games this season. A look at the previous five times that they were in that situation reveals that the UNDER is 4-1. Despite two of them coming against high-scoring Pittsburgh, those games had scores of 2-0, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4 and 2-1. That's an average of only four combined goals. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is a profitable 8-2-1 when the Bruins had scored four or more goals in their previous game. That brings the UNDER to a lucrative 48-27-6 when the Bruins were in that situation the past few seasons. (That's 64%.) Prior to last night, the Bruins had limited five straight opponents to two goals or less, giving up a mere six combined goals during that 5-game stretch. That included a pair of shutouts, 1-0 and 2-0. While we know that the Bruins can be very stingy, the Isles have quietly started playing some pretty solid defense of their own recently. In fact, they've held five straight opponents to two goals or less, giving up an average of 1.6 goals during that stretch. Going back further finds that the Isles have allowed two or fewer goals in eight of their last nine, allowing three or less in all nine of those. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 6-3 during that stretch. While we do have to lay some extra juice to play at 5.5, note that the UNDER is 39-29 the past few seasons, when the Bruins have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I'm expecting those stats to improve tonight. 9* blue chip |
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04-10-13 | Vancouver Canucks v. Calgary Flames +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -185 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing CALGARY on the Puck-Line. (+1.5 goals). The Flames don't have nearly as good an overall record as the Canucks. However, that's been because of their terrible record on the road. Many might be surprised to learn that they actually have a winning record at home and that they have more victories here than the Canucks do on the road. Yet, its Vancouver thats the heavy favorite on the money-line. That being the case, we're able to Calgary at a "relatively" reasonable price on the puck-line. I use the word relatively as the price is still admittedly rather steep - just not in comparison to what it normally is for a home team - when that option is even available. In this case, while I believe the Flames have an excellent shot at the outright win, I also feel that the extra 1.5 goals could come in handy.
A look at Vancouver's last 13 games on the road shows that the Canucks are just 6-7. A closer look reveals that ALL six of those victories came by a single goal. In other words, they'd be 0-13 if being asked to laying -1.5 goals in all of those games. One of those losses came here at Calgary, a 4-2 win for the Flames in early March. While they have dropped their last two games here, the Flames are still 8-2 their last 10 home games. They've beaten the Canucks three straight times here and only one of the last six meetings here has resulted in a Vancouver win by more than a goal. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" again tonight. 7* annihilator |
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04-10-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. NY Rangers -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. These teams just met at Toronto a couple of nights ago. The Leafs won that one by a score of 4-3. Tonight's rematch is at MSG though and I expect the Rangers to exact some revenge.
The Rangers are 60-46 (+8.4) in the "revenge" role the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-16 (+8) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark in that situation this season. They won those games by scores of 4-3, 2-1 and 4-1. On the other hand, the Leafs are only 30-40 (-9.5) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. New York's Rick Nash said this of his team: "At this point of the season we have to be a lot more desperate and can't be having those defensive zone breakdowns." After having played three straight on the road, the Rangers should be thrilled to return home. Note that they're 13-4 (+8.4) their last 17, after playing their previous three away from home. The Rangers won this season's lone meeting vs the Leafs here by a score of 5-2 outshooting them by a 42-17 margin. I successfully backed them in that game and I'm expecting them to earn another important two points tonight. 9* "situational" GOY |
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04-09-13 | Buffalo Sabres v. Winnipeg Jets -151 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. I successfully backed the Jets in their last game. At the time, the Jets were mired in a lengthy losing streak. I watched the game and saw them play fairly hard in the first period (although they were outshot) but miss several chances and then get burned by somewhat of a fluke goal - a long shot by the Flyers from near the blue line which got deflected and which the goalie didn't see. They entered the first intermission down 1-0. For a team stuck in a rut, that could have been rather deflating. That didn't prove to be the case though, as the Jets came out on absolute fire in the second. In fact, they outscored the Flyers 4-0 in that period, eventually winning by a score of 4-1. Now that they've got their "mojo" back, I expect them to follow it up with another important win this evening.
Philadelphia forward Scott Hartnell said this of the Jets: "They played like they wanted it the last 40 minutes." Winnipeg's Evander Kane, who played very well in Saturday's win, had this to say: 'Our top players have to be hot and get our team going, and I thought we did a good job of that. We had to win this game to give ourselves a shot to even make the playoffs. Our season is on the line right now." Give the Sabres credit - three straight wins has them thinking playoffs and back in the race. However, keep in mind that this team has struggled all season long and that it just traded away several of its best players at the deadline, essentially throwing in the towel in terms of advancing to the postseason. Note that the Sabres are 0-2 this season, after winning three straight. After winning three consecutive games in late February and early March, when trying to make it four in a row, they lost 3-2. A few weeks later, after winning three straight in mid-late March, they lost 2-1. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 5-11 (-7.6) the past few seasons, off three or more consecutive victories. The Jets have dominated the Sabres. They're 4-1 in the series since the team moved to Winnipeg, including 4-0 the last four. The Sabres have failed to score more than a single goal in any of those four games. Going back further finds that the Jets/Thrashers are 16-7 with a tie the last 24 times that they were a host in this series. I expect another "desperate" effort to lead to another important two points. 8* personal favorite |
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04-08-13 | Calgary Flames v. Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Colorado and Calgary to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen all three of this season's meetings finish above the number. However, that doesn't mean that we need to expect tonight's game to do the same.
We saw a perfect example of that at Detroit yesterday. All four previous 2013 meetings between the Blues and Wings had produced a minimum of six goals. Yet, yesterday's game finished with a score of 1-0. The Avalanche are off a 4-0 shutout loss. They've now seen six straight games produce five or fewer combined goals, the UNDER going 5-0-1. A closer look shows that Colorado has managed only seven total goals its last six games combined. The Avs have scored two goals or less in eight of their last nine, managing only three in the other game. For the season, the Avs have seen the UNDER go 7-3 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. They've also seen the UNDER go 11-6-3 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss and 7-3-2 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. True, the Flames have been giving up quite a few goals of late. However, after each of their recent "defensive meltdowns," their next game has been much lower-scoring. After giving up six goals vs. Columbus on 3/29, their next game finished with five combined goals. Then, after giving up eight vs. Edmonton, their next game finished with a mere three combined goals. After giving up five vs. Vancouver last time out, they should again be motivated to emphasize an improved performance in their own end. While this season's lone meeting here at Colorado did finish above the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 6-4 the last 10 times that the Flames played here. I expect those stats to improve tonight. 9* annihilator |
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04-07-13 | St Louis Blues v. Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. Louis and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met four times this season. All four meetings were relatively high-scoring, each finishing above the number. The last meeting was back in mid-February though and both teams have started playing much lower-scoring games since that time. I expect this one to also prove defensive in nature.
The Blues are off a 3-1 win over Columbus. They've now seen eight of their last 10 games produce five or fewer combined goals, the UNDER going 7-2-1 during that stretch. The Wing are off a 3-2 win at Colorado. They've now seen two of their last three games produce five or fewer combined goals. Going back a little further finds that five of their last seven have finished with five or less. For the season, the UNDER is 8-3 when the Wings have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. 10* Main Event |
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04-06-13 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. New Jersey Devils -119 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. The Leafs are so close to making the playoffs that the "postseason-starved" fans in Toronto can practically taste it. Don't expect the Devils to make things easy for them though.
The Leafs suffered their first "regulation" loss in nine games last time out. Now, it appears likely that they'll be without a key contributor in Joffrey Lupul. They'll also be taking on a New Jersey team which is desperate for points. Toronto's James Reimer said this of Lupul's injury: "He's done a lot for us. He's a great player. I don't know how long he's out for but hopefully it's short." Even though they lost again, the Devils played well last time out. In fact, they had a season-high 40 shots but just happened to run into a really hot goalie. They suffered a 1-0 loss but if they play like that again tonight, they're likely to find the back of the net at least a few times. New Jersey defenseman Andy Greene said this of the 1-0 loss and the team's overall outlook: "I'd be lying if I said we don't know where we are in the playoffs. But we're not thinking about it (every) game. If we play 11 more games like this, I think we'll give ourselves the best chance to continue to play." Note that the Devils are still an outstanding 51-31 (+12) the last 82 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The Devils, who allow a mere 24.5 shots per game, are still outscoring teams by an average of 2.7 to 2.4 on home ice. (The Leafs allow 31.8 shots per game.) I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to an important two points here. 10* personal favorite |
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04-06-13 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Winnipeg Jets -125 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The Flyers come in as the much hotter team. However, I expect the Jets to be a little more hungry this afternoon and for that "sense of desperation" to lead to them earning a very important two points.
After losing 4-1 on Thursday, Winnipeg coach Claude Noel commented: "I don't think you can expect to lose five straight games and expect that things aren't going to change. We know that if we continue down this road it isn't good. That's why there's urgency. We're running out of games." While the Flyers have certainly been better of late, lets not forget that they're still an awful 5-13 (5-12-1) on the road. They're getting outscored by a 3.4 to 2.6 margin. Even with a couple of recent losses, the Jets are still 7-4 (+5.3) when off three or more consecutive losses. During that stretch, they're also 19-13 (+7.6) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. I expect the Jets' best effort this afternoon, as they improve to 6-1 after playing three or more consecutive road games. 10* annihilator |
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04-05-13 | Calgary Flames v. San Jose Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Calgary and San Jose to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met twice this season. Both games had an O/U line of five. Both finished with exactly five goals. In large part due to Calgary's recent poor defensive play, we're now getting a line of 5.5. I believe that's providing us with very fair value.
Yes, the Flames got lit up for eight goals a couple of nights ago. That should provide them with plenty of incentive to improve defensively tonight though. Calgary defenseman Mark Giordano had this to say: "As players, you're frustrated and all that stuff, but there's no reason for that. Even though you're down, you have to play the same way and we didn't. We played a soft game, we tried to make plays across the middle. It just comes down to, again, in our own zone, we were far from good enough." The Sharks have allowed two goals or less in five straight games, including two shutouts. While they did score four goals last time out, note that the UNDER is 6-3 after the Sharks scored four or more goals in a game and 5-2-1 when they were off a win by two or more goals. Games here at San Jose are averaging only 4.8 goals this season, the Sharks holding opponents to only 1.9 goals here. (Calgary only averages 1.9 goals per game on the road.) The Sharks have seen the UNDER go 7-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* blue chip |
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04-04-13 | Edmonton Oilers v. Vancouver Canucks -172 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Oilers blew out their provincial rival (Calgary) by a score of 8-2 last night. While that was an impressive win, they're stepping up in class significantly tonight. Facing a hungry and talented Canucks team, I expect the Oilers to come back down to earth here.
The Oilers have played back-to-back games five times in 2013, losing three of them. The wins came vs. Columbus and St. Louis. In neither case were they facing a "revenge minded opponent," as they will be here. (In the case of their win vs. Columbus, it was the first time that they'd seen the Jackets this season. In the case, of their win vs. the Blues, they'd just been beaten by St. Louis a few nights earlier and were playing with "double-revenge." Tonight, however, its the Canucks who play with "recent revenge," as they were just blanked 4-0 at Edmonton on 3/30. That's a role in which Vancouver typically excels. Indeed, the Canucks are 11-6 (+2.4) the last 17 times they were playing with revenge, going an outstanding 57-29 (+11.8) in that situation the past few seasons. While the Oilers are playing the second of b2b games, the Canucks were well-rested, having the last two days off. That's noteworthy as we find them at 30-15 (+4.9) the last few seasons, when playing with two day's off in between games. The Oilers may have beaten up on lowly Calgary last night but they're only 3-5 vs. teams with a winning record, going 28-56 (-14.4) against winning teams the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also 6-15 (-6.5) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. The last time that the Oilers played the second of back-to-back games here at Vancouver resulted in a 3-2 loss on 1/24/2012. While this price may initially seem a little steep, keep in mind that the Canucks were -330 favorites in that one. I believe this line could actually be higher too and I look for the well-rested and revenge-minded home team to come away with the important two points. *7 blue marlin |
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04-03-13 | Pittsburgh Penguines v. NY Rangers -108 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY RANGERS. The Penguins have won all three of this season's previous meetings and have dominated this series in recent seasons. However, the situation favors the Rangers here and I expect them to exact some revenge.
I backed the Rangers on Monday. They beat the Jets by a score of 4-2. Note that NY is 36-24 (+6.3) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals. This season, the Rangers are 5-2 after a win by two or more goals. The Rangers had yesterday off. On the other hand, the Pens are off a 4-1 setback vs. Buffalo last night. That loss snapped their 15-game winning streak. While they've certainly got plenty of other talented and capable players, one can't ignore the fact that they're without Crosby, arguably the best in the world. Many will likely expect the Pens to immediately respond and to bounce back with a victory. I often find that teams don't necessarily perform too well, after finally having an extended winning streak snapped though. The Pens will obviously want to get right back on track and to show they can win without Crosby. The Rangers need this game more though and I expect them to be a little more hungry. Coach John Tortorella had this to say: "I don't give a damn about a deadline or anything else, except trying to win. It's pretty simple as far as the coaches and players that are here right now. We just want to win. We as a group just want to win. Nothing else is being talked about or discussed; we just want to win." I expect a highly motived effort and for the revenge-minded Rangers to come away with the important two points. 10* main event |
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04-02-13 | Colorado Avalanche v. Nashville Predators -160 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NASHVILLE. These teams met at Colorado a few days ago, the Avalanche winning 1-0. I expect the Predators to exact some revenge here.
Both teams played yesterday, each losing 3-2. While the Preds have won four of their last seven, when playing the second of back-to-back games, the Avs are 0-4 their last four in that situation and 2-8 their last 10. Going back further finds Colorado at an ugly 9-21 (-7.8) their last 30 when playing their second game in two days. While they've endured a trying season, the Preds are still a lucrative 54-44 (+14.5) the past few years, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They're 3-1 off three straight losses and I look for them to step up and stop the bleeding here. 7* personal favorite |