|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-17-17||Sabres +102 v. Golden Knights||4-5||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
The Vegas Knights have not played like an expansion team early on this season, winning 4 of 5 games, but I'm betting tonight they come back down to earth, as their starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is out with a injury. Tonight instead the Knights will start Subban, who was claimed off waivers from the Bruins on Oct. 3, and making just the third start of his NHL career after compiling a 0-2 record and a bloated 5.82 goals-against average with the Bruins. Meanwhile, the Sabres despite of starting slow, got their first win against banged up Anaheim, on Sunday night, and now on a days rest should be ready to come out with momentum on their sides against the Knights in this tilt.
|10-17-17||Dodgers v. Cubs -115||6-1||Loss||-115||31 h 47 m||Show|
The Cubs will be primed and motivated to get a much needed win here , and I'm betting we see them at their very best in game 3 of this NL series vs the Dodgers. I know both sides have been operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but in this critical game, the ghosts of Wrigely will be out in full force to help out the defending champions notch a win.
The Dodgers have looked good in the first two games of this this National league finals series, and overall in the play offs as their defense and pitching are in top form. However in the past this has not been a guarantee that they will continue to produce positive results as is evident by their , 6-17 mark against the money line in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games. DODGERS are also just 4-11 L/15 against the money line in road games after a 5 game span with an OBP of .375 or better and are 4-13 L/17 against the money line in road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs.
A lot has been made of the fact that the Cubs bats have been ice cold of late , but it must be noted that the LA DODGERS are just 22-23 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. There also long term league wide trends that tell us these types of struggling offenses have done well against the moneyline in the past.
MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the Cubs - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts are 43-15 over the L/20 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-17-17||Celtics v. Cavs OVER 211.5||99-102||Loss||-110||15 h 6 m||Show|
The Celtics have added the offensive explosiveness of Kyrie Irving to a strong overall lineup with a lot of depth. Irving and the smoothness of inside/outside threat Gordon Hayward ( if they can stay healthy) will be a dynamic duo. Also the addition rookie Jayson Tatum who is one of the very best players from this draft class is also going to surprise a lot of the pundits as he fits in perfectly with HC Brad Stevens system. Meanwhile, on D, the Celtics I'm betting may not be that staunch defensively as Horford and Baynes are undersized , and protecting the rim will be a key issue , especially tonight against a Cleveland team that can light it up in a big way from the inside thanks to some off season tinkering. The Cavs are now more versatile than ever with the additions of Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon and Turkish small forward Cedi Ozman on the wing and always remain offensively dangerous with the best player in the NBA ( James) on the floor .
I'm betting these teams come at each other full throttle tonight, in a tilt that I have pegged to go over a total. Note this Total has been beaten down by both sharps and the public from its orginal 214.5 opening and is now a viable investment opportunity.
CLEVELAND is 39-16 OVER L/54 when the total is 210 to 219.5 dating back to last season and is 18-8 OVER L/26 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5, with the average combined score ringing in at 222.5 ppg.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.Over is 20-7-1 in Cavaliers last 28 home games.
|10-16-17||Colts +7.5 v. Titans||22-36||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
The Titans behind a not 100% healthy QB Marcus Mariota are in my humble opinion at a disadvantage in this tilt vs disrespected Indianapolis Colts side, that maybe better than expected with QB Jacoby Brisset under center, especially with T.Y. Hilton waiting to grab passes and a trio of backs that can do damage. Remember, the 43-point loss the Titans experienced vs the Texans two weeks ago, as Mariota recorded a 56 QB rating while throwing two interceptions? Mariota and his offense looked out of sync. So completely blaming his back up Matt Cassel for the Titans 16-10 loss to Miami last week, maybe misplaced, as the Ttians offensive line looked weak in allowing 6 sacks. Indy in my opinion is not as bad as the public and pundits might think, and maybe we vastly over rated how good the Titans were going to be this season. After all actions speak louder than words, and thus far everything written and talked about by the media about the Titans has turned out to be wrong. It's still fairly early in the season, so I won't get to down on the Titans. As far as tonight goes, I'm expecting this to be closer than the lines-makers are expecting , and getting points to be a viable wagering investment opportunity backing a visiting Colts team that has been a curse on this Titans franchise winning 11 straight meetings.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS L/9 vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season .TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record .TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS L/27 against conference opponents .
NFL Favorites like Tennessee - off 2 consecutive road losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 8-28 ATS during the L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.
NFL Home teams like Tennessee - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 17-50 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 8-29 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.
Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-15-17||49ers +10 v. Redskins||24-26||Win||100||125 h 9 m||Show|
The NFL is an interesting league , with changes in a teams momentum from week to week , and there is also enough parity to justify taking a underdog like the 49ers that look futile at best in the eyes of the public.
Because of the Niners inconsistencies, there are some exaggerated weak lines attached to their tilts. This week, I have isolated such a line, and recommend we take the underdog getting DD points. The old saying of "Any given Sunday" should be given relevance here, and we should not rush to judgement about how bad a team San Francisco is as compared to the Redskins, who are far from a consistent side themselves. I know the Skins are off a bye week but from a recent historical stand point have not faired well with rest as is evident by a 2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week.
49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Redskins are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6.Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return or less and 22-45 ATS L/67 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS L/83 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
The Redskins are 0-17 ATS and 3-14 SU as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game.The Redskins are 0-10 ATS /SU at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.
Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-15-17||49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5||24-26||Win||100||113 h 42 m||Show|
This week I expect the well rested Skins off a bye to come out, ready to run and gun, and I'm betting they will drag the Niners into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own. This will result in what will be a high scoring affair.
Its also interesting to note that the 49ers are traveling west to east this week to play the Redskins in their own backyard. During the last two seasons teams that are travelling from the west coast to the east as road underdogs of 1 point or more like the Niners are 16-1 OVER with SF going over in 7 of their 8 games under these perimeters dating back 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 OVER L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 53.4 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 10-2 OVER L/12 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return with a combined average of 54.5 ppg going on the board. Washington, is 7-0 OVER in non division home games with a Total of 49 points or less. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.3 ppg getting scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER L/7 after 1 or more consecutive losses with a combined average of 52.3 ppg going on the board.
SF has gone OVER 12 straight times as a non division road dogs of 4 points or more.
NFL teams against the total like the 49ers - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 35-12 L/47 overall for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|10-15-17||Packers -3 v. Vikings||10-23||Loss||-110||101 h 41 m||Show|
GB QB Aaron Rodgers has made big comeback wins in 2 of his L/3 games, and is red hot at the moment. When the Packers man under center is on his game, he has to be considered the best QB in football along with Tom Brady. The Packers are currently a full two games atop the NFC North and early on this season look like the class of the division. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a Monday night game, vs Chicago winning by a 20-17 count, but are just 2-11 ATS L/13 at home in division games off a Monday night tilt. It must also be noted that Rodgers is 3-0 SU/ATS in a division game vs a side of the MNF game.With the Vikings QB Sam Bradford still not 100% healthy and the Vikes running game, operating a lower level than it has over the last few seasons, I'm fading them here, as home dogs.
|10-15-17||Lions v. Saints -4.5||38-52||Win||100||100 h 26 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints are off two straight wins and covers and have momentum on their sides and are also well rested after coming of their bye week. Meanwhile, the visiting Lions continue to be inconsistent, and are off a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last time out as hosts. It must be noted that QB Matt Stafford has not performed well on the road in his career as is evident by a 8-22 SU mark vs a winning opponent . With a lack of a running game the Lions, have become to one dimensional, and are easily figured out by opposing defenses, which makes them fade material against a Saints side, that has held their L/2 opponents to a total of 237 yards of offense.
Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.Saints are a perfect 5-0 ATS/SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Teams like the Saints returning from England and off a bye are a near perfect 8-0-1 ATS.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game and 8-0 ATS L/8 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DETROIT is 7-21 ATS L/28 in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Lions - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.
Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Washington v. Arizona State +17.5||7-13||Win||100||53 h 25 m||Show|
Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.
ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games when playing with 2 weeks .
Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .
Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Michigan State v. Minnesota +3||30-27||Push||0||129 h 8 m||Show|
Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.
It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Utah +13 v. USC||27-28||Win||100||32 h 58 m||Show|
Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured. However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.
Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Cubs +185 v. Dodgers||2-5||Loss||-100||6 h 25 m||Show|
Clayton Kershaw the ace of the Dodgers staff struggled down the stretch this season, because of back issues, and I don't think he is 100% yet. Kershaw also has a history of struggling in the play offs in the past, and in my opinion is not a strong a favorite as the lines-makers are making him here in game 1. The Dodgers southpaw hurler gave up back-to-back home runs in the seventh inning of his Game 1 start vs. Arizona, and all told, he has a 21.86 ERA in the seventh inning of postseason games. Considering the defending World Series Champion Cubs have done their best work against LHP this season averaging 5.5 rpg a on a 2.71 ERA , they must not be underestimated here as big underdogs. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana the Cubbies starter has been in top form of late, recording a 1.86 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill,
QUINTANA team when he starts is 30-11 L/41 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game.CHICAGO CUBS are 17-6 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
Cubs are 7-0 in Quintanas last 7 starts.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games.Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 5-14 in their last 19 League Championship games.
MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like the Dodgers - good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, after 2 straight games where they stranded 10 or more runners on base are 24-43 L/5 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||UTSA v. North Texas +3||26-29||Win||100||81 h 38 m||Show|
Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.
NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Maple Leafs v. Canadiens +100||4-3||Loss||-100||10 h 17 m||Show|
It doesn't matter how good or how bad each team is currently playing, when these sides have met in the past the Montreal Canadians have almost always been up to task, and have been a curse to the Toronto Maple Leafs, especially if Habs star goalie Price is between the pipes. Price has owned the Leafs in his career as is evident by a 11-0-0 career record with one shutout and a stingy 1.88 goals-against average in his last 11 starts versus Toronto. Tonight the Leafs behind their high octane offense will come out swinging but Price I'm betting will be their nemesis again . On the flipside, the Leafs lackluster defense, will finally give the Les Canadien a chance to break out of a early season offensive funk and help them notch a win. Note:Maple Leafs goaltender Fredrik Anderson, owns a 1-3-1 record against the Habs.Toronto has allowed 16 goals in four games, with goaltender Frederik Andersen looking like he is wearing swiss cheese pads. His save percentage is now a lowly .871.
Maple Leafs are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Maple Leafs are 6-15 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Canadiens are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Atlantic.Maple Leafs are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings in Montreal.
Play on the Montreal Canadians to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Georgia State +7.5 v. UL-Monroe||47-37||Win||100||79 h 47 m||Show|
LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg. Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.
ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.
GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents and is 12-3 ATS L/15 in road games.
Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Charlotte +16.5 v. Western Kentucky||14-45||Loss||-110||77 h 53 m||Show|
Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue has lost their offensive effectiveness and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count. Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is just 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .
Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Navy +3.5 v. Memphis||27-30||Win||100||77 h 36 m||Show|
Last week Navy unleashed its option attack out of the shotgun against Air Force and rushed for 471 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 victory. Considering Memphis ranks 93rd in the nation against the run its obvious to me that Memphis coach Mike Norvell and his team are in trouble this week.Navy won last year's meeting 42-28, rushing for 532 yards in a key conference victory that propelled the Midshipmen to the American Athletic Conference Western Division title and repeat performance is not out of the question here.
NAVY is 11-2 ATS L/3 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game and 9-21 ATS after a win by 28 or more points and 7-26 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game and 2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened in a lopsided win vs UConn last time out.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Auburn v. LSU +7.5||23-27||Win||100||75 h 19 m||Show|
LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.
With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.
I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.
Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.
LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.
CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.
Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 60||48-30||Loss||-110||68 h 28 m||Show|
Bowling Greens offense is horrendous and cannot move the ball with consistency as is evident by averaging just 19.5 ppg. 'm betting their output will be muted again, and that they will just t try to stay competitive by eating clock time and put everyone who bothers to watch this game to sleep. Considering Ohio is pretty banged up and have a long list of injured and walking wounded I expect despite of this being a conference game, that they will be conservative in their approach as they try to stay healthy for bigger games ahead. This combination will make for what will be a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the number.
OHIO U is 10-0 UNDER L/10 against conference opponents with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the board.
BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 UNDER L/6 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse with a combined average of 54.8 ppg going on the board.
OHIO U is 8-1 UNDER L/9 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games with a combined average of 49.4 ppg getting scored.
BOWLING GREEN is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games with a combined 41.3 ppg getting scored.
CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 Bowling Green - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, in October games are 80-37 UNDER over the L/10 seasons.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Buffalo||14-13||Loss||-110||44 h 9 m||Show|
Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.
BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival
.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS L/112 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road chalk are 42-4 SU this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||UNLV +7.5 v. Air Force||30-34||Win||100||75 h 15 m||Show|
Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.
AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.
CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.
Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-14-17||BYU v. Mississippi State -23.5||10-35||Win||100||72 h 7 m||Show|
Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia , and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested chalk off their bye week.
Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.
Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-13-17||Yankees v. Astros -160||1-2||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
Keuchel the Astros starter is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA over six career starts against the Yankees, In his one postseason start against the Yankees, Keuchel pitched six superb shutout innings with seven strikeouts in the 2015 AL wild-card game, a 3-0 Astros victory at Yankee Stadium.On May 11, he limited the Yankees to five hits, one walk and one unearned run with nine strikeouts over six innings in a 3-2 win. Meanwhile, Tanaka the Yankees starter has been hos worst on the road this season as is evident by a 4-7 record along with a bloated 6.48 ERA over 15 road starts in 2017. He is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career starts against Houston. From a starting pitcher perspective the Astros must be respected here, and backed on the money-line.
KEUCHEL team when he starts is 13-3 L/16 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game .TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.Astros are 5-1 in Keuchels last 6 starts vs. Yankees.
Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 League Championship games and are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship road games.Yankees are 2-5 in Tanakas last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff home games.Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 League Championship games.
NY YANKEES are 11-23 L/33 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.HOUSTON is 81-38 against the money line against right-handed starters this season.HOUSTON is 23-8 against the money line after batting .315 or better over a 5 game span this season.
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Yankees - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or better ) (AL), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are just 11-41 for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Yankees - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season are 14-52 over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.
Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-13-17||Capitals -136 v. Devils||5-2||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
NJ enters this game off a big win vs the Toronto Maple Leafs last time out by a 6-3 count and will now be in a let down spot, vs a hungry and motivated Washington Capitals team looking to avoid a third straight loss.Washington went 3-0-1 against the Devils, last season allowing them to a combined five goals in the four head to head tilts. With that said, look for Capitals super star Alex Ovechkin , 8 g in 4 games to be the catalyst behind a road win vs a side that they matchup very well against.
Devils are 4-9 in their last 13 games following a win.Devils are 7-19 in their last 26 home games.Devils are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Metropolitan.Capitals are 11-4 in their last 15 road games.Capitals are 40-14 in their last 54 games playing on 1 days rest.
Capitals are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey.Capitals are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Play on the Washington Capitals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-13-17||Clemson v. Syracuse +22.5||24-27||Win||100||58 h 52 m||Show|
Kelly Bryant the Clemson QB no matter what the media is saying, is not 100% for this game with a ankle injury. I'm going do a little speculating, by predicting he may not see that much game time, as HC Swinney will not want to jeopardize his stud pivot, and risk further injury to his already tender ankle. I 'm betting if he dresses , that he may just be their as a backup if things go wrong, and if he starts, he could easily get pulled and rested, if the Tigers are up big. With that said, either scenario bodes well for the Syracuse Orange covering this DD number as home dogs.
Clemson beat Syracuse 37-27 last time they played here at the Carrier Dome, in game that was much closer than many pundits expected.
The Orange are 5-2 ATS L/7 at home as 14 point or more dogs while the Tigers are 0-8 ATS L/8 as AWAY favorites of 18 or more points and have covered just 2 of their L/8 off a DD home conference win , which happened vs Wake Forest last week. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Orange are 4-0 ATS L/4 vs. a team with a winning record..
Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-13-17||Calgary -9.5 v. Hamilton||28-25||Loss||-110||34 h 15 m||Show|
Calgary enters this game against Hamilton as the class of the league, after having won their first 7 games and covering 6 of those 7 tilts. The Stamps can beat you in many different ways, and when focused are a lethal force. Tonight against a Hamilton team that has been improving since a horrendous start to their season, and off a upset win vs the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last time out, will now have the full attention of a well coached Stampeders team. I know the Ti-Cats will be primed to compete and pull off another upset, but Calgary has a way of feeding off other teams ramped up home crowds, and use that energy to smack around their hosts. Lay it and play it with the visitors tonight.
Stampeders are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.Tiger-Cats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.Tiger-Cats are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.Tiger-Cats are 4-12-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Stampeders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Hamilton.
CFL team Calgary - after allowing 325 or less total yards in 3 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 120 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Calgary Stampeders to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-12-17||Jets -123 v. Canucks||4-2||Win||100||14 h 49 m||Show|
The Jets enter this game well rested after two days off, and should be primed to take down a Vancouver side that despite of being 1-1 on the season, is a team I have pegged for decline in 2017-18, . The Canucks depend way to much on a pair of aging 36 year old Sedin brothers and as the team try's to fit new players in slowly, they will struggle , and currently do not matchup well vs the Winnipeg Jets team that has a lot of firepower ie (Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler and Patrick Laine). That firepower was on display in their last game against a very good Edmonton Oilers squad as visitors winning a 5-2 decision deep in the heart of Alberta as +140 dogs. Tonight as roach chalk, they once again look like a viable investment option on the moneyline.
My projections estimate that Winnipeg will score three or more goals tonight. VANCOUVER is 9-33 ATS when they allow 3 goals or more over the last few seasons.
Note: The Canucks have only managed one power-play goal on 11 extra-man chances this season, and I'm betting that will be their demise tonight and going forward.
Canucks are 1-10 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Canucks are 5-16 in their last 21 home games.
VANCOUVER is 9-23 ATS in home games off a home loss over the last few seasons.
Jets are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.Jets are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Jets are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
NHL Home underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line lie the Canucks- off a close home loss by 1 goal, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season in the first half of the season are just 14-51 during the last 20 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.
Play on Winnipeg to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||28-23||Loss||-110||82 h 24 m||Show|
Carolina (4-1) very much looks like they have returned to the form that got them to the 2015 Super Bowl. QB Cam Newton despite of injury woes and being maligned by the pundits and even me on occasion, has shown a lot of professionalism and to his point in the season proved almost everyone wrong. He had a great game against the Lions last time out, leading his team to a 27-24 road dog win, and looks like he is on a mission. Meanwhile, Philadelphia (4-1) is off beating up on a Arizona team with numerous issues and injuries by a lopsided 34-7 count. The Eagles have looked very competitive so far, but here in Carolina, I'm betting they are over matched, on a short line , which in my opinion makes for a viable wagering opportunity backing the host side. There is also extra motivation for the Panthers, as they look for redemption for a embarrassing DD home loss to the Saints the last time they played in front of their own fans on Sept 24.
Carolina HC Rivera is 32-13 ATS L/45 after playing their last game on the road. CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game.CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
The Panthers are 15-0 SU/ 14-1 ATS as a regular season home favorite when they are off a road game and facing an opponent that is averaging at least 360 offensive yards per game. The smallest margin of victory came by 4 points , with the average margin of victory registering at 16 ppg.
NFL Home teams like Carolina - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 23-6 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Underdogs or pick like Philadelphia - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 11-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-11-17||South Alabama +17 v. Troy||19-8||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as big DD favorites. It must also be noted that none of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.
S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.
Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-10-17||Blackhawks +110 v. Canadiens||3-1||Win||110||9 h 30 m||Show|
The Montreal Canadiens (1-2-0) have started their season struggling on offense and have scored four goals (one at even strength) in regulation and overtime during their three-game road trip . They scored one goal total in their past two games, a 6-1 loss to the Washington Capitals on Saturday and a 2-0 loss to the New York Rangers on Sunday. Needless to say their are offensive issues in the Habs camp as was the case most of last season. note: The Canadiens entered Monday one of six teams yet to score a power-play goal. Add to that the Habs are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and their are at a disadvantage from a few different perspectives. Canadiens are just 4-11 in their last 15 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and are 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Meanwhile ,the Blackhawks (2-0-1) have scored 18 goals in three games, one behind the Maple Leafs for most in the NHL. Chicago is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss to Toronto on Monday, but are well prepared and conditioned to bounce back , despite of playing last night and 3 games in the last 4 days. Blackhawks are 8-1 in their last 9 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Blackhawks are 36-15 in their last 51 games following OT on the previous day.
The Blackhawks have had the Habs number of late winning 7 straight meetings, and with both teams operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum at the moment it will be easy decision to back the Hawks here as road dogs.
Play on the Chicago Blackhawks on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-09-17||Flames v. Ducks||2-0||Loss||-125||11 h 13 m||Show|
The Calgary Flames do battle with their long time nemesis the Anaheim Ducks this Monday night. The Flames have had a horrendous ride against the Ducks , especially when visiting California as they have lost a record setting 29 times here. Tonight the lines-makers are telling us that the Ducks should once again win, despite of being banged up. I know this streak will eventually come to an end, some day , maybe even tonight, but I'll continue to ride this gravy train till it crashes and burns. With that said, and according to Einstein, " Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of insanity."
I agree with Einstein, to an extent, but must also point out that from a betting perspective and in life all good and bad runs must eventually come to end. But timing it can sometimes prove difficult. So for now on what I perceive to a value money-line opportunity, I'll back the physically intimidating Ducks to make it 30 straight home victories in this series.
Flames are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. Pacific.
Ducks are 20-9 in their last 29 vs. Western Conference.Ducks are 40-16 in their last 56 vs. Pacific.Flames are 0-29 in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim.
Play on the Anaheim Ducks to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-09-17||Avalanche +188 v. Bruins||4-0||Win||188||4 h 57 m||Show|
The Avalanche,(1-1-0) opened the season with a 4-2 win over the Rangers in New York an than lost a 4-1 decision at New Jersey on Saturday night despite of out shooting (41-39) and in my opinion out playing the Devils. I know not a lot is expected from the Avs this season, but their not as bad as some of the pundits might think. With that said, I'm betting tonight against a Bruins (1-0) lineup dealing with some injuries and illnesses, and alot of youth in their lineup the Avs are a viable underdog .
Boston injuries: forwards Patrice Bergeron (lower body) and Austin Czarnik (illness) as well as defenseman Torey Krug (jaw). If any play they will be less than 100%.
Colorado has won 9 straight meetings here in Boston.Bruins are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.Boston has not won its first two games since the 2013-14 season.
Play on the Colorado Avs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Packers +2 v. Cowboys||35-31||Win||100||124 h 59 m||Show|
Green Bay played the Thursday night game in Week 4 and destroyed Chicago by a DD deficit. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have alternated wins and losses this season and looked inconsistent last week in a loss to a Rams team that must be considered a lower tier side at the moment.
After watching GB QB Aaron Rodgers operate at an extremely high level over the last couple of weeks , and knowing how streaky he is it will not be a hard decision to support a Packers side that is now in a upswing and with momentum behind them.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS L/6 off a division game. HC Garrett is just 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. GB HC McCarthy is 29-10 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records.Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf.Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
NFL team like the Packers - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 31-7 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Seahawks +1.5 v. Rams||16-10||Win||100||102 h 33 m||Show|
The Rams are being made favorites here against a veteran Seattle side after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys last week in a 35-30 win. But despite of the victory the Rams are exhibiting a Swiss cheese type of defense that has allowed 93 points in their L/3 tilts and more than 400 yards in two consecutive games. It must be noted that the LA RAMS are just 2-14 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Today against a Seattle side, with a great D , I'm betting the Rams find it hard to move the ball and score consistently and for the Seahwaks to use the momentum of consecutive offensive outbursts of 27 and 47 points to do a great deal of offensive damage on their way to a cover.
Seahawks are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
First year coaches off an underdog SU win, are just 11-31 -1 ATS in their follow up games as chalk.
Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10||3-10||Loss||-115||5 h 23 m||Show|
Astros RH Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88)
Fister the Red Sox starter today vs the Astros enters Game 3 with a 4-1 career record and 1.78 ERA in eight postseason starts, and I'm expecting him to be in good form here again and slow down the hot bats of the Astros. Meanwhile, the Stros starter Peacock enters this tilt having held his last seven opponents to two or fewer earned runs .With the way the struggling offense of the BoSox is operating at the moment, I'm betting on them having a less than favorable output in this spot.
Under is 6-1 in Fisters last 7 starts overall.Under is 28-12-2 in Red Sox last 42 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Fisters last 7 home starts.Under is 20-8 in Red Sox last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Peacocks last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Astros - in a playoff game, having won 15 or more of their last 20 games are 32-9 UNDER dating back 20 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 like the Astors - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% are 32-8 UNDER dating back 20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Bills +3 v. Bengals||16-20||Loss||-116||145 h 40 m||Show|
Buffalo enters this tilt against Cincinnati with a 3-1 record, and last week went into Atlanta and beat the Atlanta Falcons straight up as 8 point dogs and the week before beat a very tough Denver team. Now they are being made 3 point opening line dogs to a Cincinnati team that has looked extremely inconsistent getting shutout in their opener by a now down graded Baltimore side, and than in week 3 fell apart after taking a big lead against the Packers, showing me their defensive deficiencies. I know they clobbered the Browns last week, but that cannot be considered surprising. This week, however, I'm betting the Bengals will have their hands full with a smash mouth D, that will have them struggling to move the ball, much like was the case in their first two games where they scored a total of 9 points.
Bengals HC Lewis is 7-18 ATS L/25 after a 2 game road trip .Lewis is 9-20 ATS L/29 against AFC East division opponents and is 11-22 ATS L/33 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
NFL Home favorites like the Bengals - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.
NFL teams vs the money line like Buffalo - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU dating back 10 seasons for a 94% conversion rate!
NFL Road teams like the Bills- mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.
Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Panthers v. Lions -3||27-24||Loss||-110||141 h 16 m||Show|
The Detroit Lions are 3-1 on the season, after last weeks underdog win on the road vs the Minnesota Vikings. Their one loss was a controversial one, against the Atlanta Falcons where it appeared they scored a last minute TD, that was over turned by the NFL head office despite of irrefutable evidence. Now the up trending Lions face a Carolina side, that has been very inconsistent this season, and now off an emotional letdown scenario after defeating the league champions New England Pats last time out in a Foxboro by a 33-30 count. I'm not sold on Carolina's QB Cam Newton having back to back decent games, and feel the Lions will give him a lot of headaches here in Motown on their way to a bigger win then the lines-makers estimate.
Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
NFL team vs the money line like the Lions - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU L/35 games for a 94% conversion rate for bettors..
Home teams like the Lions - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better) are 23-5 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.
Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-08-17||Cardinals v. Eagles UNDER 45||7-34||Win||100||43 h 21 m||Show|
Arizona's high powered offense of the last few seasons has been muted so far this season, as they are averaging just 18.5 ppg in their first 4 games , thanks in part to a weak offensive line. Arizona is also without RB David Johnson and they will miss him greatly here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been adequate on both offense and defense, and another average output game will be expected. Their also on tired legs after traveling out to the West Coast last week, and could come here a little slowly.Considering both teams current form I'm betting on a combined score that remains on the low side of the number.
Arizona has gone under in 4 of their L/5 vs Philly with a combined average of 43.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.
The Cardinals are 0-12 UNDER L/12 on grass after a win in which they did not hold the lead after any of the first three quarters with a combined average of 32.2 ppg going on the board.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Philadelphia - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 57-24 UNDER for a 70% conversion rate during the L/24 seasons.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Stanford v. Utah +7||23-20||Win||100||131 h 42 m||Show|
Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile, the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.
UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.
Play on the Utah Utes to cover
Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28
|10-07-17||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +12.5||38-17||Loss||-110||81 h 33 m||Show|
Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.
In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)
I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Alabama v. Texas A&M +27||27-19||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive. With that said, I'm betting that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)
CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.
Play on Texas A&M to cover
|10-07-17||Kansas State +4 v. Texas||34-40||Loss||-110||120 h 16 m||Show|
Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium. .K-State
defense remains it strong point and has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.
K-State has run over teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.
K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.
KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.
CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Sabres v. Islanders -125||3-6||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
The NY Islanders started their current season losing a 5-0 decision to the Columbus Blue Jackets last night. The Islanders looked in disarray, early in the game and their starting goaltender Greiss had a bad outing, and was pulled in favor of Halak who will start tonight in Barclays in NYI home opener. Halak did not allow a goal in the third, and finished off last season in red hot form, and I'm betting will once again buoy his team to victory vs a Buffalo Sabres team the Isles match up well against. Yes, I know the Isles might be on tired legs after playing last night, but the trip was short and the season young and being one of the best conditioned teams in the league they will be prepared to compete here and get redemption for the last nights debacle.
Islanders are 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.Islanders are 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.Sabres are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Note: Buffalo starting goalie Lehner has struggled against teams from the Metro Division as he has recorded a lowly 9-25 record along with a 3.11 GAA in his career.
Play on the NY Islanders to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||SMU +7 v. Houston||22-35||Loss||-115||34 h 6 m||Show|
I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.
|10-07-17||Southern Miss +13.5 v. UTSA||31-29||Win||100||79 h 10 m||Show|
Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games, until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.
Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Cubs +115 v. Nationals||3-6||Loss||-100||10 h 30 m||Show|
Cubs LH Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96)
Lester finished his season in top form as is evident by a 5-1 record in September and is 9-7 in play off action along with a stingy 2.63 ERA in 22 career appearances (19 starts). This season he has been in good form vs the Nationals and owns a solid 2.84 ERA in two no-decisions. Meanwhile, Gonzalez struggled down the stretch, losing four of his last six starts.
The defending World Series champs came away the victory in game 1 of this NL series, and I'm betting they get the win here again today over the Nationals. Watching both teams, its become apparent to me that the Cubs look calm cool and calculated, while their seems to be an edge or nervousness surrounding the Nationals as they nervously try to avoid their forth straight first round elimination.
Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 Divisional Playoff games.Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff home games.Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Nationals are 4-13 in Gonzalezs last 17 starts vs. National League Central.Nationals are 0-4 in Gonzalezs last 4 starts vs. Cubs.
Cubs are 8-1 in Lesters last 9 starts vs. National League East.Cubs are 7-2 in Lesters last 9 road starts.Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Cubs are 20-8 in Lesters last 28 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff road games.Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Colorado State v. Utah State +8||27-14||Loss||-106||76 h 2 m||Show|
Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.
Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.
UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Maryland +30.5 v. Ohio State||14-62||Loss||-110||71 h 49 m||Show|
The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3), I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.
OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.
CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||LSU +3.5 v. Florida||17-16||Win||100||71 h 12 m||Show|
LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win. With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.
LSU is 27-13 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Miami-FL v. Florida State +3.5||24-20||Loss||-115||68 h 10 m||Show|
Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane cancellations are taking time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are 23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups in this spot.
Play on Florida State to cover
|10-07-17||Penn State v. Northwestern +15.5||31-7||Loss||-110||72 h 48 m||Show|
Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games, and with HC Frankilin 3-11-1 ATS and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites
. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.
PENN ST is 8-19 ATS L/27 in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.
Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||34-10||Win||100||64 h 23 m||Show|
East Carolina's defense is no better than going against a bunch of pylons and have allowed 34 or more points or more a game n 9 straight tilts dating back to last season. So yes, even Temples pedestrian offense should tee off today, and usually solid D, will provide enough key stops to get us the win and cover in this spot.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game. TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS L/11 against conference opponents .TEMPLE is 11-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.E CAROLINA is 4-13 ATS L/17 in all games.
Play on Temple to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-07-17||Wake Forest +22.5 v. Clemson||14-28||Win||100||41 h 3 m||Show|
Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.
Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points
. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.
CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-06-17||Boise State v. BYU +9||24-7||Loss||-110||63 h 42 m||Show|
BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.
BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.
BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-06-17||Hamilton +14.5 v. Winnipeg||30-13||Win||100||75 h 55 m||Show|
Hamilton after a horrendous start to their season have been very competitive of late, and have covered their L/2 as DD road dogs, at Ottawa and BC winning both times SU. Now we are getting more than two TDs again with the Ti Cats vs a Winnipeg side, off a grueling and emotional underdog road win vs Edmonton last time out, and now will be in a letdown mode vs a side they maybe over looking and underestimating.
Tiger-Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 16.Tiger-Cats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Winnipeg.
CFL Road underdogs or pick like the TI Cats - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-18 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Hamilton to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-06-17||Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 7||3-0||Win||110||26 h 16 m||Show|
The Cubs enter this game batting under the Mendoza line on the road this season, averaging just 4.8 rpg on a .247 BA. With that said, I'm betting their offensive output against Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg will be muted . The Nats starter is in top form, and registered a stingy 1.93 ERA in his L/3 starts and is 7-2 at home this season along with a stable 2.85 ERA. Meanwhile, The Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is also in red hot form and has registered a miniscule 0.96 ERA in his L/3 starts and owns a viable 2.83 ERA in away tilts. It must be noted that the Nationals have done their least damage vs RHP this season, batting just .266 and should once again find putting runners in scoring position a difficult prospect.Considering both bullpens are stable, it will not be a hard decision to recommend we take an under stance here.
|10-05-17||Penguins v. Blackhawks -130||1-10||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
The Blackhawks after a very good campaign, in 2016- 2017 , were unceremoniously dumped from the play offs in speedy fashion by the Nashville Predators. Now this year the Hawks are on a search and destroy mission, and have the guns to get the job done. Tonight in their home opener I expect they will take advantage of a Penguins team on tired legs and off a game last night that they had to work hard to tie with two late goals, and will now be in an emotional and physical letdown state after losing in OT. Note:Penguins are 3-12 in their last 15 games following OT on the previous day and have lost 4 of their L/5 with no rest.
The Pens have lost 6 straight to the Hawks and number 7 I'm betting comes tonight in Illinois.
Hawks will start G Crawford who has been nearly flawless vs the Pens in his career as is evident by 6-1-0 record along with a .946 save percentage and a 1.65 goals-against average in seven games.
Play on the Chicago Blackhawks to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-05-17||Patriots -5 v. Bucs||19-14||Push||0||35 h 50 m||Show|
Many pundits are now down the New England Patriots, but any team with Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick as their HC is an extremely dangerous animal when wounded. I know that through four games,including Sunday's 33-30 home loss against the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick , which is surprise considering the Pats owned the best D in the league last season. However with that said, the Pats have the talent to right their sinking ship and trend back towards their expected norm beginning tonight in Tampa Bay.
I'm not a big proponent of laying lumber on the road in any sport, but in this situation I'm betting we have an edge, behind a QB a future hall of famer in Tom Brady that is 16-3 SU/ATS off a loss as favorite and now on the road and 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights and 6-1 ATS away.
It must be noted that TB has not had success vs defenses that are allowing a lot of yards. TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS lL6 in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game and is 9-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored with the average margin of victory coming by almost 15 ppg.
TB is 0-4 ATS at home on Thursday nights.
NFL Road favorites like the Pats - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 22-4 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on the New England Pats to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +4.5||25-39||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and Murray State. Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless 54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.
Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-04-17||Rockies +155 v. Diamondbacks||8-11||Loss||-100||26 h 3 m||Show|
Rockies RH Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20)
Colorado's starting hurler Gray became a key part of the rotation after the All-Star break while going 8-4 with a 3.65 ERA over 15 starts, and allowed a total of just seven runs in 30 innings of quality work in his last five appearances and struck out 10 batters to win at Arizona on June 30 and is more than capable of shocking the DBacks tonight. Meanwhile, Arizona's ace Greinke looked fatigued to me towards the end of the season, and was hammered in his last home start against Miami on Sept. 22 as he allowed eight runs in just four innings. I know the Rockies are underdogs here, but I'm betting they matchup well against Greinke and deliver a value line winner behind what can be an explosive offense.
Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 home starts vs. Rockies.
GRAY is 5-0 against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.Rockies are 4-0 in Grays last 4 road starts.Rockies are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Diamondbacks are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games.
Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-04-17||Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5||7-2||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
The Maple Leafs and Jets officially drop the puck on a new year in hockey Oct. 4 .
These teams have gone over in their last 4 meetings. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Winnipeg
.In the Jets last 29 non conference games an average of 6.7 gpg were scored.
Key Notes from last season: Toronto converted an NHL second-best 23.8 percent of its power plays last season while Winnipeg had the league's fifth-worst penalty kill at 77.5 percent.
The Jets allowed 3.1 goals per game last season, which was fourth worst in the NHL.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|10-03-17||Twins v. Yankees UNDER 7.5||4-8||Loss||-105||34 h 44 m||Show|
American League Wild Card Game
Minnesota's Santana, the ace of Minnesota's staff, will make his ninth career postseason appearance and third start in the AL Wild Card Game. He finished the year strong with a 3.31 ERA in six September starts. The Twins starter struck out 230 batters over 193 1/3 innings this season and will be a hand full for the Yankees .Meanwhile, Severino will be making his first career postseason appearance at any level in Tuesday's AL Wild Card Game for the Yankees, after going 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA since the break. The big thrower, has a lot of stamina and can go deep into games, as was evident by his velocity late into games, throwing more 100-plus mph fastballs after the seventh inning than any other starter.
With two quality hurlers on the mound, and sudden death implications, I expect defense and pitching and a mistake free mentality to make for a low scoring affair.
SANTANA is 16-4 UNDER L/20 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 6 rpg gong on the scoreboard. NYY Manager GIRARDI is 19-7 L/26 UNDER in home games in October games with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored.
Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 playoff home games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games.
These teams have gone under in 5 of 6 meetings this season.
MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 like Yankees - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better) -AL, in October games are 58-23 UNDER for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 20 seasons.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Eagles +1.5 v. Chargers||26-24||Win||100||101 h 3 m||Show|
Some people and some teams just don't like change. Looks like the Chargers are one of those teams. Since finding out their moving out of the comforts of San Diego , the team has nose dived. Since last December the Chargers are 1-11 SU/ATS overall and are 0-4SU/ATS in their new Stadium , where no more than 25000 people have come to watch them play lately. It's hardly a home winning environment, and once again I'm fading them in this spot.
LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS L/8 off 2 or more consecutive overs.
Play on Philadelphia to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Mets +110 v. Phillies||0-11||Loss||-100||5 h 5 m||Show|
Phillies rookie Nick Pivetta (7-10, 6.26 ERA) goes to the hill to face the Mets here this afternoon . Pivetta is 1-1 with a 6.48 ERA, surrendering 18 hits to Mets batters in 16 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Mets will respond with Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 3.18 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in Sunday afternoon's season finale.He has pitched well against the Phillies, as is evident by a 4-1 career record and a stingy 1.89 ERA against them. This is an important start for Syndergaard as will have direct implications for his future standing with the Mets. I'm recommending we back his motivational intentions today.
The Mets are 7-2 in Philadelphia this season.
Play on the NY Mets to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 44||26-9||Win||100||123 h 36 m||Show|
After the Ravens were ripped apart in London last Sunday , absorbing a 37-point loss , I'm betting they look for immediate atonement, and come out here with a staunch defensive effort vs their rivals the Steelers in game I am betting is a grinding hard hitting affair that stays under the Total.
Under is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games.Under is 23-9-1 in Steelers last 33 vs. AFC.Under is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 vs. AFC North.Under is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games.Under is 7-2 in Ravens last 9 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER L/13 as a road favorite with a combined average of 40 ppg going on the board. PITTSBURGH is 15-3 UNDER L/18 in the first half of the season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg going on the board. Baltimore's HC Harbaugh is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 27.4 ppg going on the board.The Ravens have gone under 12 straight times by an average of 9.5 ppg as a home dog vs a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with a combined average of 32.8 ppg going on the scoreboard, with highest combined score clicking in at 39 points.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 46.5||35-30||Loss||-110||115 h 33 m||Show|
The Dallas D, came to play last week against Arizona winning 28-17 on the road at Arizona and I'm betting that same D, will control Rams QB Jeared Goff and company this Sunday. I'm also betting on a Rams well rested D, that despite of being inconsistent to display some stopping power with fresh legs under them. Look for both teams to use a run heavy orientated attack that will speed the clock up and slow the game down to a grind , which in turn will result in a lower scoring affair than the line might indicate.
DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER L/7 vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last few seasons with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at 34.7 ppg.LA RAMS is 7-0 UNDER after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored , which happened in last Thursday nights 41-39 win vs the 49ers , with the average combined score clicking in at 33.8 ppg. LA RAMS is 6-0 UNDER l/6 in road games after playing their last game on the road with a combined score of 33.4 ppg scored.
The Rams are 0-15 UNDER by an average of 11.5 ppg on the road vs a non-divisional opponent that is scoring more than 24.3% of their points from field goals with the average combined score clicking in at 29.4 ppg, with the highest combined score during the run 39 points
NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like the Rams - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 27-6 under in their next game, dating back 34 seasons, for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Bills +8 v. Falcons||23-17||Win||100||114 h 12 m||Show|
Last week vs a highly-respected defense in Denver, the Bills moved the the ball with impunity in superb fashion and coasted to a 26-16 victory. QB Taylor completed 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and now owns a 126 PASSER ratting , and could finally be reaching the bar that was set so high for him out of the gate in his career. Quote: “I sense that our team embraces some of the underdog role, and that’s good,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “There’s a lot of power in that. I would say that we focus on a lot that’s going on in this building, not outside of this building.” END QUOTE: With that said, I expect the Bills to give Atlanta all they can handle this week, and for their D, to be the key behind what I am betting will a Buffalo cover.
ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS L/22 in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game which happened against the Lions last time out. ATLANTA is 13-32 ATS 45 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
NFL team vs the money line like the Bills - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better have won 38 of the L/48 times SU, thus giving us extra value getting points here.
Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-01-17||Steelers v. Ravens +3||26-9||Loss||-110||98 h 19 m||Show|
Baltimore's Quarterback Joe Flacco had the worst game of his entire career in London last time out. He completed eight of 18 pass attempts for just 28 yards with two interceptions. He finished with a quarterback rating of 12.0 and his team was gutted 44-7. But this is still a good Ravens team, that is not as bad as their last game might indicate. Now looking to exercise the demons of that embarrassment I expect the Ravens to give their arch rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers a fight for their money this Sunday. Baltimore has bounced back well in the past off a 20 or more point loss winning 7 of 9 games straight up and teams coming back from England are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 dating back to the 2015 season.
BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS L/9 after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game . Baltimore has covered 3 straight in this series, and are 2-0 ATS/SU L/2 at home.
NFL Road favorites like the Steelers - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-73 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.
Play on Baltimore to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Nevada +10.5 v. Fresno State||21-41||Loss||-110||109 h 36 m||Show|
Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated. Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
NEVADA is 8-1 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
Play on Nevada to cover
|09-30-17||Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5||31-17||Loss||-110||83 h 31 m||Show|
Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.
CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.
Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Diamondbacks v. Royals +104||3-4||Win||104||10 h 45 m||Show|
Diamondbacks RH Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.54 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jake Junis (8-3, 4.39)
KC sends Rookie Jake Junis to hill to start for them today. He is 8-3 with a 4.39 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings. He lost his previous start to the New York Yankees, ending an impressive personal six-game winning streak.Junis is 2-0 with a 3.49 ERA in six starts and two relief appearances this year at Kauffman Stadium and is a viable pitcher to back here against a Arizona Dbacks side that has already clinched a wild card birth and looking ahead to post season play. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent, Walker has been on the wrong end of back-to-back starts to San Francisco and Miami, working a total of 8 2/3 innings, but getting beaten around for early exits. Walker is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against the Royals.
Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague road games.Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Royals are 4-0 in Junis' last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.Royals are 9-4 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Royals are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Diamondbacks are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.JUNIS when he starts for the Royals has seen his team go 7-1 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Florida Atlantic -2.5||20-38||Win||100||105 h 10 m||Show|
Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak I am betting their ready to notch a home victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up. If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on Florida Atlantic to cover
|09-30-17||Troy +21 v. LSU||24-21||Win||100||82 h 35 m||Show|
LSU looks like they have problems and HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs. As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.
LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14 in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.
Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5||10-17||Win||100||77 h 33 m||Show|
Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.
Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Buffalo -7 v. Kent State||27-13||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since. Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls team comes out here with their helmets on fire as they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.
KENT ST is 0-9 ATS after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and is 0-10 ATS after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.
CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Florida State -7 v. Wake Forest||26-19||Push||0||49 h 47 m||Show|
Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma, vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.
FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons.
Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Vanderbilt +10 v. Florida||24-38||Loss||-110||123 h 49 m||Show|
Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money. The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Colorado State -7 v. Hawaii||51-21||Win||100||74 h 58 m||Show|
Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.
COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.
CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-30-17||Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 63||51-21||Win||100||2 h 55 m||Show|
Colorado State is a explosive side with a lot of offensive talent. Against a defensively challenged team like Hawaii I'm betting they unload for a boatload full of points. Meanwhile, Hawaii, has proven they can score in bunches, and will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in what I am betting will be a high scoring affair.
COLORADO ST in its L/6 games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play have seen a combined score of 74.3 ppg go on the board.COLORADO ST is 9-1 L/10 OVER in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game with a combined average of 66.5 ppg getting scored.HAWAII is 15-1 OVER L/16 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival which happened vs Wyoming last time out in a 28-21 loss. The combined average score of those games rings in at 66.5 ppg.
Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||USC v. Washington State +4||27-30||Win||100||73 h 15 m||Show|
USC( 4-0) No.5 enter this game ranked very highly , thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.
WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||Minnesota Lynx v. LA Sparks UNDER 155||64-75||Win||100||58 h 42 m||Show|
|09-29-17||Brewers -130 v. Cardinals||5-3||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
Brewers RH Chase Anderson (11-4, 2.81 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH John Gant (0-0, 3.65)
Anderson the Brewers starter tonight lost to the Chicago Cubs in his last appearance but won each of his previous four decisions and remains a viable candidate to deliver a winning ticket tonight. With Milwaukee still having a chance of catching the Colorado Rockies for the second National League wild-card spot I expect he will get some motivated support. Meanwhile, also considering the Cardinals are now deflated after their 11th-inning, 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Thursday night eliminated them from the play off race, I expect the Brewers have a edge based on motivation. With that said, I expect the Brewers to beat up on Cardinals' starter John Gant, who is making only his second start since he was recalled from Triple-A Memphis at the start of September.
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||BYU -3 v. Utah State||24-40||Loss||-115||80 h 44 m||Show|
After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.
Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-29-17||Miami-FL v. Duke +7||31-6||Loss||-115||69 h 31 m||Show|
Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-28-17||Texas v. Iowa State +6.5||17-7||Loss||-115||47 h 11 m||Show|
So Texas is a favorite here based on reputation and past pedigree, but definitely not because their current form. This is a team that even their greatest high profile fan Matthew McConaughey could not feel good about. Tom Herman has a great reputation , but he is still dealing with a young gridiron group dealing with a Charlie Strong hangover, and they will take a while to jell. So here on the road against a feisty Iowa State side, I'm betting the visiting Longhorns who are 1-4 ATS L/5 as conference road chalk will find it tough to get out of here with a cover. It must be noted that Iowa State is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 16 points or less vs a below .500 team with Matt Campbells teams covering 6 of their L/8 as a home dog.
TEXAS is 2-12 ATS L/14 in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 6-16 ATS in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game.IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.Campbell is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games in the first half of the season .
Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-28-17||Cubs +183 v. Cardinals||2-1||Win||183||8 h 0 m||Show|
The Cardinals have lost four of their last five, scoring two or fewer runs three times over that stretch and one more loss would put them out of any play off contention. I know Chicago has clinched their spot in post season play, but would love nothing more than to finish off their opponents hopes in killer fashion which is repeatedly exhibited by championship teams. I expect some of the Cubs young talent to see time tonight, and to want to make a mark, so I don't expect the Cubs to lay down and just the let the desperate Cards roll over them.
It must also be noted that Cubs starter Hendricks who has been very sharp of late is in line to start the Cubs’ playoff opener, and will be primed to make an impression on his coaching staff tonight with a top notch effort . He is 4-4 with a 2.25 ERA in his last eight apperances – all quality starts – and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 12 trips to the hill since coming off the disabled list July 24.
Meanwhile, cards starter Lynn has only one victory over his last nine starts and off a very ugly effort last time out, and owns a 13.03 ERA in his L/3 overall. He looked fatigued in the above mentioned outing, which is not a good omen for his teams chances at staying alive after tonight. Lynn has seen his team lose 7 straight vs the Cubs when he starts.
Cardinals are 1-7 in Lynns last 8 starts overall.
Cubs are 22-5 in their last 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline
|09-27-17||Astros v. Rangers OVER 10||12-2||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
The Houston's Astros bats are on fire , as is evident by scoring 25 runs in their L/2 games. The way they are hitting I don't think it matters which pitcher they go against. Today against Nick Martinez, who makes his fourth start since rejoining the rotation this month, I'm betting the Astros explode again vs a 3-7 pitcher with a 5.42 ERA. Martinez is 0-3 over his past four starts with a 4.63 ERA and a .230/.264/.425/.689 opponents' slash line. Meanwhile, a relaxed Texas side playing as spoilers will primed to bang out some hits and runs vs a hurler in Verlander that they have done well against. Verlander is 1-1 with a slightly bloated 5.54 ERA against Texas this season, both starts coming with Detroit.
HOUSTON is 12-3 OVER L/15 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg going on the board.TEXAS is 15-4 OVER L/19 in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over with a combined average of 12.5 rpg going on the scoreboard. TEXAS is 9-1 OVER after scoring 4 runs or less 4 straight games with aa combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 11-2 OVER in road games after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 12.7 rpg scored.
MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 like the Rangers - after 2 straight losses by 6 runs or more against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 74-38 OVER dating back 20 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for over bettors.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|09-25-17||Padres +255 v. Dodgers||3-9||Loss||-100||6 h 44 m||Show|
Padres LH Travis Wood (4-6, 6.55 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (9-12, 3.96)
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||28-17||Loss||-115||82 h 29 m||Show|
Arizona is being underestimated here in my humble opinion and listed as underdogs vs a very public Dallas side. However, I am not totally surprised after last seasons disappointing results for the Cards, and the top tier season that the Cowboys had. But now their seems to be decent in the Boyz locker room and side lines with coach Garrett calling out RBs Elliott's hustle and or competitiveness when the RB showed little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions in the Cowboys embarrassing loss at Denver last week. That kind of work ethic, tells me a story of a Dallas team that might be resting on their recent laurels and believing in their own headlines, which won't equate well in on the field performances as was the case last week . Elliott had more carries (nine) than rushing yards (eight) in that tilt and Prescott did not look like a star QB.
Despite of missing the play offs last year Bruce Arians team outstated their opponents overall, and once again look like viable post season contenders this year. It must be noted that Dallas is just 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 in this series, 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 games here in the desert losing all three as chalk. Meanwhile, Arizona is 14-1 ATS L/15 and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition , and have covered 11 straight vs these teams off a victory.Arians is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a home underdog of 3 points or less and is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less .
Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||Raiders v. Redskins +3.5||10-27||Win||100||57 h 59 m||Show|
Everyone loves the Raiders and their explosive attack, and they are a fine team behind an exceptional QB in Carr and a strong offensive line, but their Achilles heel remains their defense. Also with the success and attention they have garnered they now have a big target on their backs with teams very hyped up to bring them back down to earth. Tonight I'm betting that Oakland after logging a lot of miles during the L/3 weeks , first travelling out to Tennessee in a highly charged game, than flying back home to the West Coat last week for their opener, and now back east to play in DC , could easily find themselves in a letdown spot and tired against a motivated Redskins side that would love nothing more to pull off an upset. It must also be noted that the Raiders are 0-7 ATS away in Sunday games after back to back SU/ATS wins.
The Raiders are 0-13 ATS L/14 on grass after a game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average, and are 1-12 SU losing SU by an average of 2 TDs per game, with the lone win coming by 3 points.
Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||Angels v. Astros UNDER 9||7-5||Loss||-110||10 h 56 m||Show|
Houston enters this game with their pitching in defense in top form , having allowed a total of 10 runs in their L/6 games. Meanwhile, the LA Angles have scored a total of 15 runs in their L/6 and once again look like offensive production will be curtailed as they face Astros starter McCullers who has pitched his best at home this season going 4-0 in 8 starts along with a stable 2.87 ERA. He will also be well rested after being off since Sept 6 , recouping from fatigue.McCullers, has allowed only one unearned run over 13 2/3 innings in two starts versus the Angels this season and should once again be solid and fresh in this spot.Meanwhile, the Angels starter Skaggs has been in strong form of late as his last three starts would indicate, posting a 2.45 ERA. I'm betting bot these hurlers and their bullpens do enough to help keep this contest from eclipsing the total.
Under is 5-0 in Skaggs' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 overall.Under is 17-5 in McCullers Jr.s last 22 home starts.Under is 6-0 in McCullers Jr.s last 6 starts vs. Angels.Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
MCCULLERS JR. is 17-4 UNDER L/21 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game dating back to last season with a combined average of 5.9 rpg going on the board. MCCULLERS JR. is 15-4 UNDER L/19 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. LA ANGELS are 18-5 UNDER after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season, with a combined average of 6.7 rpg getting scored.MCCULLERS JR. is 9-1 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 dting back last season with a combined average of 5.2 rpg scored.
The Angels are 0-15-1 UNDER by an average of 4.19 rpg in the last game of a series as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||Bengals v. Packers UNDER 44.5||24-27||Loss||-110||99 h 42 m||Show|
Cincinnati was on the wrong end of a 13-9 decision at home against the Texans on Thursday Night Football last week. The Bengals are ranked a dismal 22nd in the NFL in both passing (178.5 yards per game) and rushing (79.5 yards per game) and are ranked 31st in scoring offense averaging just 4.5 ppg. On the flip side they are currently ranked 7th in scoring defense allowing just 16.5 points per tilt. These early season numbers are not an anomaly and something that I'm betting continues. Meanwhile, Green Bay enters this game, in a letdown spot off a loss in the NFC Finals rematch last week against Atlanta and may come out with a muted early effort this week , which will contribute to a much lower scoring game than many might expect.
Under is 20-8-1 in Bengals last 29 road games.Under is 11-5 in Packers last 16 home games.
Lewis is 15-5 UNDER L/20 in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games with a combined average of 37.5 ppg going on the board.
The Bengals have gone under 14 straight times by an average of 12.82 ppg on the road after a game in which at least 30 percent of their first downs were from third down with a combined average of 31.4 ppg going on the board with the highest score clicking in at 42 points.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx UNDER 158.5||85-84||Loss||-110||136 h 11 m||Show|
|09-24-17||Saints +6 v. Panthers||34-13||Win||100||123 h 15 m||Show|
New Orleans have started their season, at 0-2, and while its still early, a sense of urgency now permeates around the team, and now I'm betting on big effort from the Saints against 2-0 Carolina this Sunday. I know both teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , entering this tilt, but I pretty well know what to expect from both teams when they meet based on my power and head to head divergence rankings .With that said, my own numbers based on both teams strengths and weakneeses tell me that this game will be closely contested, thus making getting points to be a viable investment decision.
Saints HC Payton is 15-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses and is 19-8 ATS L/27 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orelans is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.
NFL Home favorites like Carolina - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games 5-23 ATS for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors dating 5 seasons.
The Saints are 13-0 ATS L/13 when facing an undefeated team after week 1 and 9-4 SU with two losses coming by 2 points and the other two by 4 and 5 points respectively.
Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover
|09-24-17||Falcons v. Lions +3||30-26||Loss||-115||99 h 44 m||Show|
Atlanta (2-0) got by their first two opponents, and have yet to experience the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.However, with that said, I'm betting that hangover finally catches up with them this week vs a Detroit Lions team that is finally starting to live up to expectations behind their top tier QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit has a good recent history vs NC South opponents winning 5 straight meetings and get the nod again today,
NFL Road Favs like Atlanta - a solid team from last season-outscored opposition by 7 or more points , after a win by 10 or more points are 4-22 ATS L/26 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettotrs 34 seasons.
Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||Browns v. Colts UNDER 40.5||28-31||Loss||-110||96 h 58 m||Show|
The Browns going forward now base their successes and failures and their ground attack and ball control and overall conservative approach that eats up a lot of clock time. They will not score a lot of points , but also won't score many, Today they face a Indianapolis team that is a mess, and without starting QB Andrew Luck which will make their offense muted as well. This combination will lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-8 UNDER L/29 in home games against AFC North division opponents with a combined average of 37.7 ppg getting scored.
Browns have gone under 19 straight times by an average 9.29 ppg when the line is within three of pick and they are off two games in which they scored fewer points than expected with a combined average of 28.4 ppg getting scored with the highest output clicking in at 38 points.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|09-24-17||Broncos v. Bills OVER 40||16-26||Win||100||96 h 37 m||Show|
The Broncos smacked 42 points on the board vs Dallas last time out and showed their offensive prowess, and now this week, I expect they will also do significant damage vs a Buffalo side that has over achieved defensively in their first two games, vs the Jets and the Panthers. I'm also expecting for the Bills to score above what the lines makers expect in a big time back and forth effort. No matter which way this plays out the Total is tainted because of previous results, and way to low in my humble betting opinion.
BUFFALO is 8-1 OVER in home games over the last 2 seasons, with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games in September.Over is 7-2 in Bills last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 10-4 in Bills last 14 games overall.
The Broncos have gone over 16 straight times by an average of 13.2 rpg as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent that had less than 26:15 minutes of possession time in their last game with combined average of 60.7 ppg getting scored, with the lowest output during the streak clicking in at 45 points.
NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points like the Bills - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 37-12 OVER for 76% conversion rate the last 10 seasons for bettors.
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|09-24-17||Ravens v. Jaguars OVER 39.5||7-44||Win||100||93 h 49 m||Show|
Last week Jacksonvilles D, got blown up for 37 points by Tennessee, and now I'm betting Baltimore and QB Joe Flacco will have their turn to burn the Jags D this week in Wimbley Stadium in London England even though they have injury issues with the offensive line. With Jags QB Blake Bortles under pressure to perform , I'm betting a sometimes explosive Jags offense will keep pace, and provide us with a tilt that eclipses the number. Hey, I know the Ravens D has looked good in their first two games vs Cincinnati and Cleveland , but that is hardly a measuring stick of their stopping proficiency. Last week the Ravens allowed 293 passing yards and 93 rushing yards on 21 carries and it was their ability to get turnovers that buoyed them.
Harbaugh is 6-0 OVER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival , which happened in a 24-10 vs Cleveland . the combined score of these tilts rings in at a combined average of 48 ppg.
The Jaguars have gone over in 16 straight by an average of 12.25 ppg in franchise history on a natural surface off a home loss in which they never led and they are facing a team that is averaging less than 1.6 turnovers per game. with a combined average of 57.5 ppg getting scored with the lowest combined output clicking in at 43 points.
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|09-23-17||UCLA +7.5 v. Stanford||34-58||Loss||-110||133 h 47 m||Show|
Rosen jumped out to the top of the Heisman watch list after throwing for 3,668 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015 and than last season , the hopes for UCLAs winning the PAC 12 and making a big Bowl appearance was erased because of the Rosen injury. Now after his triumphant return to the gridiron which saw the Bruins stage a miraculous 45-44 comeback win vs Texas A&M after being down by more than 30 points at one point , the legend of Josh Rosen continues to grow. So far this season he's been lights out, and despite of losing a 48-45 heartbreaker last week in Memphis he must be respected here vs Stanford just because of the share fire power this Bruins team has. Yes, they're defense is their Achilles heel, and Mora's team will give a load of points on a regular basis, to strong offenses, but their own offense will keep them in most games, as I am betting will be the case this week vs the Cardinal who are not a confident group at the moment after coming off two straight losses, to USC and San Diego State.
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Stanford - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 15-42 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors during the past 10 seasons.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UCLA - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons.
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|09-23-17||Notre Dame v. Michigan State +4||38-18||Loss||-110||83 h 26 m||Show|
Notre Dame goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Last week , the band wagon crawlers came out of the woodwork , after the Irish defeated Boston College. However defeating this Michigan State program will be a much harder conquest. The Spartans enter this game as the nations 3rd ranked D, and must not be disrespected on offense either as a deep set of backs could easily wreak havoc on a side, that may find it difficult adjusting and dealing with a team that can actually move the ball, after facing Boston Colleges horrendous offense last week. It must be noted that Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of the L/13 games in this series, and the Spartans DanAntonio is 17-2-1 ATS L/20 at home taking on sides off a SU/ATS victory.
MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 ATS L/18 allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games.MICHIGAN ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.
NOTRE DAME is 2-14 ATS L/16. in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
CBB Road favorites like the Fighting Irish- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 7-31 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.
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