Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -110 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Im betting on Dallas to find a way to extend this series to 5 games with a home win tonight in desperation mode. (Vegas won the last game 4-0 after taking two narrow 1 goals wins in the first two games of this series) Stars are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.DALLAS is 32-12 ATS off an embarrassing home loss where they were shut out since 1996. DALLAS is 20-8 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.Stars are 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Play on Dallas to win |
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05-25-23 | Padres v. Nationals +172 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
. Padres southpaw starter SNELL is 4-11 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-8 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-14 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Nationals have done their best work against lefties this season garnering 5.1 rpg via a .289 BA and deserve respect here as home underdogs in this spot play. Meanwhile, the Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Nats starting hurler Irvin. Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. Play on the Washington Nationals to win |
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05-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Todays pitching matchup features: Toronto's Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.15 ERA) opposite Tampa Bay's Zach Eflin (6-1, 3.45) in a duel of right-handers. Jays starter MANOAH is 9-15 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rays are 124-51 in their last 175 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Manoah and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings is fade material here vs the Rays . Rays starter EFLIN is 24-7 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) Elfin has looked good this season, and shown great consistency with his breaking stuff, and deserves respect here as a favorite. Blue Jays are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. TAMPA BAY is 22-5 against the money line in home games this seasonTAMPA BAY is 55-28 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. Rays are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play on the Rays to win |
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05-25-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +161 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Cardinals, have dropped two of the first three in the series and Im betting against them here again today as their starter Mikolas makes his 17th career appearance and 15th start against the Cincinnati Reds . The Cards righty hurler has just one victory in his last 12 appearances against the Reds, recording a 0-3 record along with a bloated 7.94 ERA in his last six starts in Cincinnati and is fade material here this afternoon, MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 31-16 L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.( Reds Starter Weaver qualifies) CINCINNATI is 21-7 against the money line at home when the total is 11 or higher since 1997. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-24-23 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.94 ERA), who is the major league leader in WHIP (0.79) and opponents' batting average (.168, second), will start for the Orioles on Wednesday. Im betting he keeps the explosive Yankees bats at bay. Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.21 ERA) will be on the hill for the Yanks . The southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in six innings at Toronto on Thursday and is finally starting to uptrend in my power rankings after a slow start to this season. Cortes 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts) against Baltimore and Im betting he continues his upward momentum tonight in what will be some cool night time temps that favor the pitchers. CORTES is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 24-12 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-2 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League East.Under is 8-3-2 in Orioles last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the UNDER |
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05-24-23 | Orioles v. Yankees -121 | 9-6 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Baltimore's starter. Wells is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his past six starts, but has not had any luck facing the NYY as his 0-4 record along with a 4.68 ERA would indicate. Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like Wells. Meanwhile, Cortes the Yanks expected stater who is off a strong effort last time out for a win has momentum entering this tilt vs a Orioles side that he has had success against as is evident by a 4-0 record along with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts). BOONE is 106-42 against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the manager of NY YANKEES Orioles are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in New York. Play on the NYY to win |
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05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies +156 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Alcantara is a top tier hurler, but this season for some reason hes giving up plenty of hard contact and alot of line drives which is never a good omen when especially here in the Coors Field launching pad. The line is just to off, according to Alcantara's current form. Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 1-11 in their last 12 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Colorado.Play on Colorado |
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05-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers -106 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The Panthers are playing their best hockey of the season, and thanks to the play of their star goaltender Bobrovsky look to be headed towards a Stanley Cup finals appearance. CAROLINA is 0-5 ATS in road games after getting shutout in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. (Panthers pulled off a 1-0 victory last time out )FLORIDA is 6-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where 4 or fewer total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons. Hurricanes are 3-13 in their last 16 Conference Finals games. Hurricanes are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Florida.Hurricanes are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings. NHL Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Panthers to win |
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05-24-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +146 | 3-10 | Win | 146 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Cards lefty starter MATZ is 0-6 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) CINCINNATI is 8-0 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season. Cincinnati has clobbered LH pitchers this season averaging 5.3 rpg game via a .274 BA and are being under rated tonight. Cardinals are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Reds Starter Lively. ST LOUIS is 3-9 against the money line when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-24-23 | Astros v. Brewers -102 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings. He is according to my pitcher power rankings and under rated hurler. Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings and get the nod here vs a Houston side expected to be without Jose Altuve . Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Astros Bielak. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games.Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Play on the Brewers to win |
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05-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies +107 | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Gallen is the superior pitcher in this matchup vs the Phillies Suarez, but the Phillies have the superior bullpen and a more explosive offense. SUAREZ is 12-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SUAREZ is 11-6 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - average hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phillies to win. |
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05-24-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +120 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
I cant see how the Rangers are road favs here. There is not that much of a difference in the pitching matchup according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Rangers Perez. Also the Pirates have the superior bullpen and deserve respect here as underdogs. PITTSBURGH is 23-12 against the money line vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS is 20-40 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central. MLB Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 92-76 L/5 seasons. Rangers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Pirates to win |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The Heat are playing their best hoops of the season in the play offs, and their peak performance of entire play offs was last time out a they shot a blistering 56.8 percent from the field (46 of 81) and 54.3 percent from 3-point range (19 of 35) and now have a strangle hold on this series.A resounding and over powering 128-102 victory now has me expecting a immediate regression and for a soul searching group of the Celtics to leave everything on the floor tonight. and get us the cover. MIAMI is 0-9 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 36-12 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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05-23-23 | Dream +2.5 v. Lynx | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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05-23-23 | Giants v. Twins OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray are average at best pitchers but have performed very well out of the gate. Based on early season performance charts the total seems right, but after delving in deeper, and highlighting these two hurlers career averages a regression looks to be inevitable. MINNESOTA is 50-30 OVER vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.7 runs per game scored over that 80 game sample size. Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 6-2 in Giants last 8 interleague road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. MLB team (MINNESOTA) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 30-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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05-23-23 | Mets v. Cubs +100 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Chicago has been struggling but with starter Drew Smyly (4-1, 2.86 ERA) on the hill they have a strong opportunity for success in this tilt vs the Mets. The lefty allowed a run on four hits and SO eight in six innings at Houston on Wednesday, but the Cubs choked on a 6-1 lead and eventually lost by a 7-6 count . The Cubbies southpaw, has allowed just three runs over 12 innings of his last two starts, and is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in four career starts against the New York Mets and get the nod vs a inconsistent Mets offense. SMYLY is 33-19 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in his career. (Team's Record) Note: Senga the Mets starter is 1-1 along with a 7.98 ERA, with opponents batting .323 on the road this season. Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter. NY METS are 1-6 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Mets are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.Mets are 20-41 in the last 61 meetings in Chicago. Play on the Chicago Cubs to win |
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05-23-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +130 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Veteran hurler Adam Wainwright no longer seems imposing and very much looks to be on the downside of his career, as his velocity has dropped significantly. With that said, my pitcher vs betting order power rankings also suggest we have an edge . Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.ST LOUIS is 11-21 against the money line in night games this season. Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-23-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 20-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
These offenses are explosive to say the least . When looking at the pitching matchup of Berrios and Bradley some powerful trends pop up. BERRIOS is 9-0 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. BERRIOS is 16-4 OVER (+11.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. It must also be noted Berrios owns divergent numbers at home (3.74 xFIP) and road (4.58 xFIP) during his career, and once again is vulnerable in the Rays backyard where they have 5.8 rpg this season. Meanwhile, Bradley the Rays starter has not pitched all that well at home this season where he has garnered a 5.40 ERA and against a Blue Jays side that averages 4.8 rpg on the road this season looks like cannon fodder for a strong offense. Over is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bradley. Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play on the over |
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05-23-23 | Rangers -154 v. Pirates | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
The Rangers lost to the Pirates yesterday, but have proven resilient in the past as is evident by going 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter like Hill and matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note: The Rangers own a top-three offense against both righties and southpaws this season. Meanwhile, Pirates are 26-59 in their last 85 interleague games and are 17-39 in their last 56 during game 2 of a series. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Eovaldi who owns a 5-2 recored on the season including a solid .283 ERA and a 3-1 record and a stingy 1.83 ERA on the road. Everything points to a conclusive Rangers win in game 2 of this series. MLB team (TEXAS) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent NL starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20), with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games are 26-8 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas Rangers to win |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 224.5 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late, the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.
DENVER is 48-33 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over |
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05-22-23 | Dodgers +140 v. Braves | 8-6 | Win | 140 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
The Braves sill have some issues Im betting against rookie Gavin Stone, who will make his second MLB start after an impressive spring including Triple-A action. It must be noted that Gavin Stone garnered 24 swinging strikes while generating a season high 10 strikeouts for OKC. With a fastball that averaged 94.4 - t96.3 Braves hitters could end up taking time to figure this kid out. Meanwhile the LA DODGERS are 28-9 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Morton whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons .MORTON is 1-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.396. Advantage Dodgers on the money-line Dodgers are 60-24 in their last 84 during game 1 of a series. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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05-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -107 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rays are 27-12 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter like Jays starter Bassitt. Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Rays are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.Rays are 23-8 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series. TAMPA BAY is 15-2 against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Rays Kelley.Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. American League East.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games on astroturf. TORONTO is 0-6 (against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games this season. Blue Jays are 18-37 in the last 55 meetings in Tampa Bay. MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - team with an excellent SLG (.450 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 17-42 L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Rays to win |
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05-22-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +120 | 4-6 | Win | 120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Ortiz has not looked great from a data standpoint early on this season, but this young Pirates starter has above average stuff, and must be respected here on a value line. Meanwhile, the Rangers Dunning is a capable mid rotation pitcher, but not at this level of favoritism, making the Pirates a viable underdog. DUNNING is 4-21 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-14 against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-13 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter like Ortiz.Rangers are 3-9 in their last 12 inter-league road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 inter-league road games. MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Rangers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings. Pittsburgh Pirates to win |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Celtics felt the effect of their grueling 7 game series vs the Sixers in the previous play off round, and looked a little tired against a Miami Heat side that is currently playing their best hoops of the season. The talented and deep Celtics subsequently lost the first two games of this series at home, and are now in desperation mode making them a dangerous opponent for the Heat. Note: BOSTON is 12-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-18 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Celtics are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record NBA team (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 48-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.Play on Boston to cover |
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05-21-23 | Guardians v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
A pair of former Cy Young Award winners go to the hill tonight as the Guardians' Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.20 ERA) and the Mets' Justin Verlander (1-2, 4.76 ERA) do battle. Both hurlers have looked average at best, making this number offered by the books vulnerable .With the Cleveland bullpen struggling of late and the Mets bullpen having struggled for most of this season, it will be an easy decision to take an over stance . My projections make this total closer to 8 giving us value on the over cashing.Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings. Play on the over |
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05-21-23 | Sky v. Mercury -3 | 75-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My WNBA basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating back over 27 years) In other words no stone is left unturned. WNBA Road favorites (CHICAGO) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 10-24 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rare for bettors. Play on the Mercury |
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05-21-23 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Cubs starter Justin Steele after a fast start to his season is finally starting look human. Steele in his last outing allowed a season-high five runs on four in the fourth inning -- and five hits in barely getting through six innings of Chicago's 7-3 loss at Houston on Tuesday. Today against the sometimes explosive bats of the Phillies Im betting Steel will be humbled again. Thanks to Chicagos 4.9 rpg game offensive output on the road this season, Im also betting the Cubbies dont go down without a fight in a game I have pegged as an over result. Cubs are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 games following a loss.Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 3 of a series.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-0 in Cubs last 8 road games.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. .Over is 11-1 in Cubs last 12 overall. MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (PHILADELPHIA) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), after a win by 4 runs or more are 48-15 OVER L/26 seasons with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.Play over |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Down 2-0 the senior laden Lakers have their backs against the proverbial wall and now need a win desperately and Im betting will now play all out hoops at home where they are undefeated in the this seasons play offs. Denver is a fine team but when experienced super star ballers like James and Davis feel cornered look out. LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Coming off a loss during this campaign, the Lakers are 28-16 ATS and 5-0 in the playoffs. Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. DENVER is 4-13 ATS ( in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 11-23 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games. Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 222.5 | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over. Note: LA LAKERS in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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05-20-23 | Emily Ducote +130 v. Lupita Godinez | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
05-20-23 | Viacheslav Borshchev -156 v. Vanessa Melo | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
05-20-23 | Vanessa Demopoulos v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -130 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
05-20-23 | Tigers +102 v. Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Tigers won the opener 8-6 on Friday night and once again look like viable bets with momentum on their sides and now going against a very inconsistent Nats hurler Left-hander Patrick Corbin (2-5, 4.65 ERA) . He had a good outing last time out, but has shown very little ability to stay hot for very long over the last few seasons and is fade material in this spot play opportunity. Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like Motowns starter Faedo. Nationals are 4-18 in their last 22 interleague home games.Nationals are 1-7 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. .DETROIT is 6-1 against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. DETROIT is 11-3 against the money line in an inter-league game this season. Tigers have won 3 of their L/4 games. Play on the Detroit Tigers to win |
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05-20-23 | Tigers v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Based on my power rankings projections this total should be closer to 10 thus giving us value with an over wager. Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 inter-league games vs. a left-handed starter like the Nats Corbin. Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 inter-league games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 inter-league road games.Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 inter-league games.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.DETROIT is 12-2 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season.Over is 21-8-3 in Tigers last 32 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 inter-league home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Nationals last 11 vs. American League Central. Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington. Play over |
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05-20-23 | Rockies +180 v. Rangers | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Colorados starter FREELAND is 26-13 against the money line after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings. When hes running hot the Rockies are viable bets . To much value to pass up on here in this spot play. In three career starts vs. the Rangers, Freeland is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA. I know Texas starter Texas starter Jon Gray (3-1, 3.15 ERA) has pitched well , but the Rockies batting order according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings match up well here. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (COLORADO) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 26-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado to win |
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05-20-23 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
After missing nearly three weeks, Taillon has thrown a combined 10 1/3 innings over his past three starts, recording a 9.58 ERA and once again looks to be cannon fodder for the Phillies sometimes explosive bats. Taillon has made five career starts against the Phillies, garnering a 1-2 record along with a bloated 6.86 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola (3-3, 4.53 ERA) is scheduled to take to the hill for the Phillies. Nola is 4-2 with a 4.74 ERA in seven starts in his career against the Cubs.NOLA is 19-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. Everything points to this total being eclipsed. Over is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games.Over is 7-0 in Cubs last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 overall. CHICAGO CUBS are 8-0 OVER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 10 games are 35-10 L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia. Play over |
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05-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -134 | 4-3 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Keller (5-1, 2.38 ERA) will face Diamondbacks rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 8.59) on Saturday. ARIZONA is 12-46 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons like the Pirates Keller. Pirates starter Keller in his L/3 starts has garnered a minuscule 0.43 ERA and 0.714 WHIP. Keller has already matched his win total from last season. He has not given up a home run over his past five starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four home outings.and gets the nod here. PITTSBURGH is 10-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 38-75 L/6 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to win |
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05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Jays starting right-hander Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.40 ERA) is winless in his past seven starts, and has garnered a bloated 7.98 ERA in three starts this month. Meanwhile, Baltimore sends right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (2-1, 6.57 ERA) to the hill to start against the Blue Jays . He is 1-1 and has recorded a ugly 11.37 ERA this month. Everything points to these sometimes explosive offenses teeing off today and for this total to be eclipsed. Over is 10-4 in Blue Jays last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Orioles starter Rodriguez. Over is 8-3 in Blue Jays last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 vs. American League East. Over is 33-16-7 in the last 56 meetings.Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Toronto.Over is 7-3 in Orioles last 10 road games.Over is 12-4-1 in Orioles last 17 on astroturf. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - after 4 straight games where they committed no errors, in May games are 38-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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05-19-23 | Marlins v. Giants -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami starter Alcantara reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has yet to win on the road this season, going 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA. With the Giants,, offense in high gear as was evident during a three-game home sweep over the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week, totaling 17 runs in the victories Im betting that momentum carries on into this tilt against the Marlins. This is also an interesting anomaly or trend: ALCANTARA is 1-12 against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Giants offense ranks top 7 against righties like Alcantara. SFO starter DESCLAFANI is 22-9 against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Play on the SF Giants to win |
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05-19-23 | Red Sox +134 v. Padres | 6-1 | Win | 134 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The Red Sox starter Paxton is throwing heaters at a very high velocity right now ( 96.3 mpg on average) which is his highest since 2019. Whatever he is doing- the veteran is successfully turning back the clock and must be respected here on the road as an underdog. Note: Paxton in three career starts against the Padres, owns a 1-1 record along with a 1.98 ERA, a 1.527 WHIP and a .241 opponents' batting average. Padres starter SNELL is 1-7 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-13 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record key trend:The Padres are struggling to hit in the clutch, possessing a majors-worst .196 average with runners in scoring position, while the Red Sox's .294 average in those situations ranks second behind the Texas Rangers' .331 mark. SAN DIEGO is 0-8 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. Play on Boston Red Sox to win |
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05-19-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
All three games played between these Western conference rivals stayed under the total this season with a combined average of 4 gpg scored. Im betting on more tough defensive hockey here tonight in the series opener. VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER off a win by 3 goals or more over a division rival this season with a combined average of 3.8 gpg scored. (Vegas wrapped up their series vs the Oilers last time out with a 5-2 victory).VEGAS is 10-1 UNDER (+9.2 Units) in the conference finals (lifetime) with a combined average of 4.3 gpg scored. DALLAS is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 4.8 gpg scored.-3 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 5.1 gpg scored. NHL team against the total (VEGAS) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win are 302-215 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In the first game of this series, the well rested Heat took advantage of a emotionally drained Boston team that had previously took part in a grueling 7 game seres . Now a fire has been lit under the proverbial butts of the Celtics and now more rested and rejuvenated mentally Im betting on a big bounce back zig zag theory win and over. Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 5-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-19-23 | Royals +118 v. White Sox | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Veteran right-hander Zack Greinke (1-4, 5.01), is coming of a strong outing last time out ,as he allowed two runs on three hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, striking out five without issuing a walk. He actually looked close to the pitcher who was hard to beat in his prime and gets my backing here on a value line. Meanwhile, Kopech is preparing to make his first start against Kansas City this season after going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three trips to the hill against them last season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here. Pale Hose staeter KOPECH is 0-6 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CHI WHITE SOX are 9-21 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season. MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after 2 straight one run wins are 38-17 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on KC Royals to win |
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05-19-23 | Mariners +154 v. Braves | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Seattles starter Bryce Miller is absolute fire. His fastball is of the top tier variety and Im betting the Braves will have a hard time catching up with the flame throwers over powering stuff. He has the lowest WHIP (0.421) in any pitcher's first three career starts in MLB history. I know Elder has looked really good for the Braves, but this line according to my projections offers great value as the pitching matchup is being undervalued in relation to the dog. SEATTLE is 41-32 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.SEATTLE is 94-68 ( against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 12-2 against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. Play on Seattle to win |
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05-19-23 | Guardians +135 v. Mets | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Mets right-hander Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.56 ERA), is expected to come off the injured list to pitch against his former team for the first time. The veteran hurler hasn't pitched for New York since April 15 due to right elbow inflammation and Im betting his rust despite of some minor league rehab will not help his situation. Note:Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter like Carrasco.Guardians are 13-3 in their last 16 inter-league road games.Guardians are 25-9 in their last 34 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mets did get a win yesterday bit that has not been a omen for success so far this season as is evident by a 1-7 record in their last 8 games following a victory. QUANTRILL is 7-1 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CLEVELAND is 7-1against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 11-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons NY METS are 3-9 against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season MLB team (NY METS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are just 13-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
The senior laden Lakers were off playing a grueling series against the Golden State Warriors previous to the the first game of this series and came out flat in the first half. In that game 1 tilt here in the Mile High City the Lakers tried to comeback from a DD deficit at half time but failed on the comeback attempt despite of a huge effort that Im betting will have them very tired here . James and Davis are great players but their durability must be questioned at this stage of their career, making the exhausted Lakers fade material in game 2 of this series. Denver has won all their post season games this season at home and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation as well as an all important cover .
DENVER is 16-7 ATS in home games off a home win this season. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 33-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense. Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors in the last five seasons. Play under |
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05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Florida has gone under this total in four consecutive trips to the ice as they come off a low-scoring series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. In that series, the Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 164 of 174 shots for a .943 save percentage and Im betting he remains hot here tonight in Carolina. Meanwhile, Carolina has also played top tier D in this season play offs , allowing the second-fewest goals per game (2.55) in the post season which was a continuation of a top tier defensive effort during the regular season where they garnered a stingy 2.56 GAA. It must also be noted that Goalie Frederik Andersen has been in top form for the Hurricanes garnering a .931 SVP in his last 5 appearances. CAROLINA is 30-18 UNDER in home games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA is 18-6 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season. These teams played under this total in2 of 3 meetings this season and Im betting on a risne repeat situation tonight. Play on the under |
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05-18-23 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +140 | 8-16 | Win | 140 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Cards starter Wainwright is now said to be healthy after injuring himself during training for the World Baseball Classic. This will be his 3rd start off a lay off and now Im betting like the thoroughbred he is will be ready to pitch at a high standard. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 41-18 in their last 59 games vs. a left-handed starter like Urias. St.Louis to win |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
The well rested Miami Heat take on a Boston Celtics side off a grueling 7 game series vs the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat have saved their best hoops of the season for the play offs, and played the Celtics tough recently winning the last two matchups between these teams during this campaign with a 98-95 victory at home back on Jan 24th and a 120-116 road win back in December. Now very fresh and ready to continue their assault the Heat catch the Celtics in a emotional and physical down mode after their huge series win vs the 76ers.BOSTON is 0-9 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MIAMI is 32-18 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MIAMI is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 47-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Boston.Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-17-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Its not an ideal night for baseball in Bostons Fenway as temps are expected to be around 50 degrees all night with , with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field. Pitchers have an advantage in this weather conditions. Seattles starter GONZALES is 17-4 UNDER in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7 rpg scored. GONZALES is 21-8 UNDER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the BoSox starter Bello. Home plate umpire Mike Estabrook has seen 55% of his career gigs go under the total, a notorious pitchers leaning official. Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series. MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (BOSTON/SEATTLE) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%), in May games are 48-14 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-17-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox -115 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Red Sox hit southpaws well, and are 33-18 against the money line against left-handed starters like the Mariners starter Gonzales over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 28-10 against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Brian Bello the Bosox starter has pitched well of late garnering a 2-0 record along with a solid 2.81 ERA in his L/3 starts with his team winning all 3 games . Advantage Boston. Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Mariners are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings. Play on the Red Sox to win |
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05-17-23 | Reds +102 v. Rockies | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Reds starter Ashcraft owns a 53.7% career ground-ball rate while allowing just 0.91 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) which is important here in the launching pad known as Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Rockies will send left-hander Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.30), to the hill . The pitching advantage goes to the Reds. The Reds Starter ASHCRAFT is 8-3 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ASHCRAFT is 11-5 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rockies are 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Play on Cincinnati to win |
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05-17-23 | Pirates v. Tigers -153 | 8-0 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been in top form this season and his D, has played extremely well behind him. In 8 starts this season the lefty has garnered a 1.57 ERA and very much gives his team an edge in this tilt vs a Pirates side is 1-16 ( against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is also an ugly 7-44 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 3 seasons. MLB team (DETROIT) - bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 27-9 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Tigers to win |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. DENVER is 42-23 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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05-16-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Brandon Williamson will make his MLB debut in the launching pad known as Coors Field and Im betting it wont be a pretty start to his big league career. Hes got a great arm but has control issues, none of which have been worked out during his minor league career. Not a good omen for him here in this type of ball park. Williamson went 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Louisville this season. The Rockies have done their best offensive work vs lefties this season averaging 5.4 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rockies will respond with Anderson who will face his former team in his first start of the season. ( The Reds have an extensive scouting report on Anderson) COLORADO is 21-10 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 12.9 rpg scored. Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higherOver is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. Play on the over |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed, and have been for most of this season , and have home-court advantage. They were 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season and have won all six home playoff games going into this tilt with the Lakers. Im calling on a rinse and repeat situation and for the Nuggets to have the edge on this ATS offering at home where they have won 4 of their L/5 matchups vs the Lakers. LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 13-2 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. DENVER is 21-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 36-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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05-16-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Seattle won Monday's series opener, racking up 15 hits in a 10-1 victory and Im betting the hits and runs will keep on coming this Tuesday night as they face the very inconsistent BosSox starter N. Pivetta who owns a 8.40 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. PIVETTA in his L/6 after getting rocked for 7 or more runs last outing has seen a combined score of 13.3 rpg scored. ( In his latest appearance, on May 9 at Atlanta, he allowed seven runs on eight hits in four innings) Meanwhile, Boston despite of some sluggish offense efforts of late are more than capable of a bounce back game here vs a Seattle pitcher in Castillo. Note: The Red Sox are ranked near the top in MLB vs righties like Castillo averaging 5.4 rpg on a .273 BA. BOSTON is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored. .BOSTON is 16-7 OVER in home games this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. Play over |
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05-16-23 | Rays +148 v. Mets | 8-5 | Win | 148 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mets are battered and beaten and tired after a long road trip and may take some time to get used to home cooking which is not a good omen against an explosive Tampa Bay side that deserve alot of respect. I know Verlander is a top tier pitcher , but the Rays are currently MLB top offensive side and have equally smashed lefties and righties with astonishing fire power. The Mets were outscored 64-39 over the previous 13 games.. New York starting pitchers have pitched more than five innings just twice during that span and are fade material in this current form no matter who's on the hill for them. TAMPA BAY is 16-2 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. NY METS are 2-8 against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. NY METS are 0-6 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season which was the case last time out. MLB Home teams (NY METS) - after 4 straight games with no home runs, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are 42-72 L/26 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to win |
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05-16-23 | Yankees +180 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 180 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Gausman the Jays starter is a durable top tier pitcher, but the Yankees bats can make the best of hurlers look sub standard. GAUSMAN is 1-5 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, German the Yankees starter , must also not be underestimated as is evident by garnering a stingy 1.89 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. Considering the pitching matchup and the viable offenses its obvious to me that the line is bloated as compared to the true odds giving us value with the dangerous underdog. TORONTO is 12-19 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. .Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Yankees are 77-35 in their last 112 during game 2 of a series.Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 overall. MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games are 127-83 L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. Play on the NY Yankees |
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05-15-23 | Royals +188 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Padres starter WACHA is 4-11 against the money line in home games in an inter-league game in his career. (Team's Record) Royals righty starter Keller according to my power rankings is a pitcher that is very under rated and must be respected here on this bloated underdog line. He has recorded a 2-0 record and .2.91 road ERA this season, and gets the nod on a value line. Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. SAN DIEGO is 6-12 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 39-17 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-15-23 | Cubs +171 v. Astros | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Taillon will make his third start since returning from the 15-day injured list on May 4. He looked a little rusty so far, but now should find himself in a groove here vs a lineup that he matches up well against according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. TAILLON is 16-2 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Left-hander Framber Valdez (3-4, 2.38 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros today . With the Astros offense not looking as powerful as it has the last few seasons, he has not been getting sufficient run or bullpen support as is evident by his stingy ERA but sub par record. VALDEZ is 0-5 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) Considering the Cubbies have done their best work against southpaws this season averaging 6 rpg it is an easy decision to fafe the Astros in this matchup. HOUSTON is 6-10 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against an excellent AL starting pitcher (ERA 3.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 23-11 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 36-17 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cubs to win |
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05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Dallas HC Peter DeBoer is the man to back in Game 7s- as he has a 100% success rate in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since game 1 of this series 5 straight games have been decided by 2 goals or more and tonight Im betting on another value puckline result this time favoring the SU fav and home side the Dallas Stars. Play on Dallas to win -1.5 |
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05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My power rankings suggest the BoSox offense matchup well vs the Mariners starter Kirby. BOSTON is 9-1 OVER vs. a starting pitcher like Kirby with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined 12.3 rpg scored. BOSTON is 18-6 OVER against right-handed starters this season with a combined 11.6 rpg scored. Kirby is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 10 innings. He has also surrendered four home runs.BOSTON is 26-13 OVER in all games this season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored.Meanwhile, the Mariners offense should also roll today vs a tired pitching staff and bullpen that just allowed 21 runs in a 3 game set to the Cardinals in which they were swept. Red Sox starter Houck has also looked less than stellar of late, garnering a 6.48 ERA in his L/3 starts. Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games are 65-30 OVER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings in Boston.Over is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Play over |
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05-15-23 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
NYM starter Peterson has not looked great so far this season, but has a good hsitroy against the Dbacks, as is evident by a 2-0 record along with a 2.93 ERA in six career outings (five starts) against Washington. With the Nats only averaging 2.9 rpg this season at home Peterson and his bullpen should do fine from a defensive perspective in this tilt. Meanwhile the Nationals starter Corbin has also under performed but is trending upwards as he has worked at least into the sixth inning in his last five starts. With the Mets only averaging 2.7 rpg vs lefties this season, Corbin should have a decent outing. NY METS are 12-4 UNDER against left-handed starters this season like Crobin with a combined average of 6.7 rpg going on the board. NY METS are 9-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 14-5 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 18-7 UNDER in home games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or better errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. MLB team (WASHINGTON) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). are 52-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-14-23 | Cardinals -114 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and have won the first two games of this series at Fenway and must not be underestimated in their ability to make it 3 in a row here with Mikolas on the hill. The Cards right hurler owns a 2.20 ERA in his L/3 starts and is in top form. Meanwhile, BoSox starter Corey Kluber has really struggled under the shadows of the Green Monster and posted a 7.72 ERA in 4 starts here this season, which is not a good omen for his side tonight. Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Red Sox are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague home games. BOSTON is 5-13 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.4 or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL) are 13-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cards to win |
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05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's +130 | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Oakland not played well this year, but the implied odds of this tilt to not matchup well as compared to my projected outcome giving us value with the underdog. Heaney the Rangers pitcher has lost his L/2 starts here in this venue, and is being over rated today. TEXAS is 25-33 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rangers are 21-44 in their last 65 during game 4 of a series. Rangers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Oakland. Play on the As to win |
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05-14-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Celtics | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
It's do or die for both sides here in game 7 and Im betting on a hard fought affair that goes down to the wire. The Sixers have already proved they can win on the road in this series and have proven their resilience as well. Note: Two of Philadelphia's three victories in the series came in Boston. key quote: "If I have to go to war, Game 7 in Boston, I would want to go with this group," Philadelphia's Tyrese Maxey said. "I know we've got some fighters. I know we've got some resilient guys. I'm ready to get it on." PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Celtics got the desperation win last time out, but maintaining that energy Im betting will be very difficult. The Celtics have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 after a victory. The Sixers have covered 5 of their L/8 trips to Bean-town. Play on the Sixers to cover |
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05-14-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | 3-16 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Minnesota's Louie Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will make his ninth career start and first against the Cubs, while Chicago will respond with right-hander Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28). Varland has pitched his best at home this season where has garnered a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings of work. It must also be noted that Stroman has gone at least six innings while allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts this season and Im betting nothing changes today in what Im projecting will be a lower scoring affair. (Also expecting immediate offensive regression from the Twins after yesterdays 11 run output) Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.CHICAGO CUBS are 10-2 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 15-7-2 in Twins last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Play under |
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05-14-23 | Angels v. Guardians -101 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Cleveland's right-hander Tanner Bibee (1-1, 4.30) posted a 3.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first three outings covering 14 2/3 innings and deserves respect here on this line offering. The Halos who have lost 10 of their 12 here at Progressive Field will counter with left-hander Patrick Sandoval (3-1, 3.41 ERA) in the finale. With the Halos winning the first two games of their series the Guardians will be hell bent on salvaging something from this series and will play hard today behind a viable hurler making them my choice in this spot play. Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Guardians are 15-5 in their last 20 during game 3 of a series.Guardians are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. American League West. Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.. NEVIN is 2-8 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of LA ANGELS. Play on Cleveland to win |
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05-13-23 | Phillies v. Rockies +139 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who will come off the IL on Saturday could easily be rusty here in a hitters ball park, making the Rockies a viable underdog at his implied price. The Rockies also hit lefties well, and deserve respect at home to pull of the upset in this spot play. Colorado has won 8 of their L/11 overall.Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like Suarez.Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. Phillies are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado. Play on the Rockies to win |
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05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The pitching matchup of righty Musgrove going against Urials the lefty gives the offenses and advantage as the Dodgers rank third against righties (119 wRC+), while the Padres rank eighth against southpaws with a 115 wRC+ so far this season. Dodger stadium will see temps in the high 70s, with light winds blowing out to center. LA DODGERS are 13-4 OVER in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons with 11.7 rpg scored. Over is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over |
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05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Baltimores starter Wells, , has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks and is not an easy guy to face for a Pirates side that has not scored more than 3 runs in 11 straight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Roansy Contreras (3-3, 4.74 ERA) will go against a Baltimore team that hits southpaws better than righties ranking 15th . My projections based on the pitching matchup , and projected offensive outputs suggests a line closer 7.5 thus giving us value on this offering. Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.BALTIMORE is 15-4 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.7 rog scored. Play under |
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05-13-23 | Cardinals v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
These teams took part in a high scoring game yesterday, and the environment is right for another fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total according to my projections. With temps in the low 18s and NW winds at around 13 mph Im expected plenty runs. BOSTON is 18-9 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored.BOSTON is 15-6 OVER in home games this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague games.Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 overall. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play over |
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05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins -161 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Twins starter Joe Ryan is a top tier pitcher and deserves a great deal of respect. Considering his performance charts this season, this is not to high of price to ask on this offered line . Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 inter-league home games. Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Twins starter Ryan. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - hot hitting team - batting .325 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 11-46 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less ), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 110-39 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Twins to win |
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05-13-23 | Braves v. Blue Jays -122 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Jays starter BERRIOS is 15-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 15-1 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 16-2 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) TORONTO is 15-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. I know Elders the Braves starter has pitcher very well out of the gate, but according to my projections this kid could in for a tough outing against explosive Blue Jays batting order. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. MLB home teams (TORONTO) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 25-7 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to win |
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05-13-23 | Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Marlins stater ALCANTARA is 10-2 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.ALCANTARA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored. MIAMI is 14-4 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like the Reds Lodolo. with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons of 4.5 rpg scored. both theses offenses have been very inconsistent this season, while their pitching has been viable. My projections estimate a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 33-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-13-23 | Rays v. Yankees +122 | 8-9 | Win | 122 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
McClanahan (7-0, 1.76 ERA) can become the first eight-game winner in the majors and hes performing an exaggerated level just like the rest of the team. Regression is obviously coming and Im betting it starts today against the Yankees. Note:McClanahan is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees. Meanwhile, Yanks starter Cortes was 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay last season, including a victory on May 26 at St. Petersburg, Fla., when he hurled eight innings of one-run ball. My pitcher vs power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Rays and at these implies odds is under rated. Rays are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Yankees are 71-33 in their last 104 home games and are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter like McClanahan. TAMPA BAY is 24-35 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. NY YANKEES are 33-9 against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base are 49-24 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. NYY to win |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
The Warriors shot 51.1 percent from the field last time out in a win and outrebounded the Lakers 48-38. Im betting on immediate regression here against what will be a more motivated Lakers group here tonight. The Lakers Davis played his least amount of min in the play offs in that last game, but should be more rested for this key tilt. What was troubling was the Warriors 14 turnovers and tonight Im betting under pressure that those ugly numbers will contribute the Warriors downfall. GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.GOLDEN STATE is 14-32 ATS in road games this season.LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Lakers to cover |
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05-12-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +103 | 5-7 | Win | 103 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Nelson. SAN FRANCISCO is sub .500 61-70 against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons and according to my projections being over rated here today vs the Snakes. Value resides with a hungry home side on a 3 game slid. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West .Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.ARIZONA is 20-17 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13 against the money line vs. a team with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. Play on Dbacks to win |
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05-12-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Cubs send right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA) to the hill to face the Cubs.Gray currently owns the best ERA in the American League and has allowed more than one run in only one of his seven trips to the hill this season. Meanwhile,Left-hander Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05) will takes to the mound for the Cubs. In 16 career appearances (six starts) against the Twins, Smyly is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA. My projections estimate, a pitchers duel here and when need be for the bullpens to finish the job. SMYLY is 19-8 UNDER in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games.Under is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. Under is 6-0 in Twins last 6 overall. CHICAGO CUBS are 24-12 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Play under |
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05-12-23 | Royals +205 v. Brewers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Burnes, who won the Cy Young Award in 2021, has not been as sharp thus far as he was the last two seasons and is being over rated here. With that said, there is to much value to pass up with a Royals side that has won four of their last five games and that has homered in 10 consecutive games. Also the Brewers have lost 8 of their L/10 and are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Royals Taylor. Brewers are also 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play on the KC Royals to win |
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
Having enough talent on the floor is obviously very important, but in the play offs if you don't have an experienced coach, you are most probably doomed.With Spoelestra on the sidelines for Miami in a clutch post season action Im betting the Heat have the edge especially playing here at home where they have defeated the Knicks in 5 of their L/7 meetings. I know the Knicks played a great game last time out in desperation mode, but even after leaving everything on the floor, there was a feeling of inadequacy surrounding the Knicks and an emotional let down situation could easily hamper their flow this evening. MIAMI is 29-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 46-25 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Spoelstra is 30-14 ATS in the second round of the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-12-23 | Angels v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Clevelands lack of offense and top tier pitching have produced consistent unders of late. The Guardians have gone under in 9 of thier L/10 games with no tilt over that span seeing more than 8 combined runs scored. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight vs the visiting Angels. Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter like the Guardians starter Allen. Under is 7-2-1 in Angels last 10 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-7 in Angels last 27 games following an off day. CLEVELAND is 10-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 21-7 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-12-23 | Cardinals +105 v. Red Sox | 8-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Paxton off a long lay off after getting injured back in April is being over rated here based on what Ill describe as rust. The Cards despite of some very inconsistent baseball early this season, are team that has generally hit lefties like Paxton hard, and once again look like they will do damage. Note: Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games. Play on St.Louis to win |
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05-12-23 | Mets v. Nationals +110 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
NY METS are 3-8 against the money line in May games this season. Mets are in a funk and fade material in their current form. NY METS are 4-16 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Nationals Gore. Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games are 78-25 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Advantage value with the Washington Nats to win |
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05-12-23 | Reds +129 v. Marlins | 7-4 | Win | 129 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Cincinnati will have the pleasure of going against a fresh rookie just coming from Double A. Hes a talented kid but he goes against much tougher competition here and him stepping up wont come easily vs a Reds team, off winning two of three from the Mets. Meanwhile, the Marlins face a hurler in Graham Ashcraft (2-1, 3.82) who matches up well against them according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. In two career starts against Miami, he has garnered a 1-0 record along with a stingy1.80 ERA. Marlins are 17-36 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Ashcraft .Marlins are 34-73 in their last 107 during game 1 of a series.Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 games following an off day. Reds are 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. Play on Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-12-23 | Mariners v. Tigers +105 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Boyd matches up well here vs the Seattle Mariners. Boyd is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Mariners. It must also be noted that Motown has momentum entering this tilt against Seattle as is evident by having won seven of their past nine games. Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like Seattles Gonzales. DETROIT is 12-4 against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 86-47 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Tigers to win |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Suns | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
This has been a homer series so far with the host team winning all five tilts. However, the discrepancy in scores has been more tilted to towards the Nuggets in their home wins while the Suns home victories have been much closer and hard fought. My won feelings and analysis suggest the Nuggets are the superior side overall , and deserve respects as underdogs in this key spot play. DENVER is 20-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA team (PHOENIX) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 18-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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05-11-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Giants starter Cobb has pitched well so far this season. However, he is 2-2 with a 6.10 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, including 0-1 with an 8.36 mark in three outings at Chase Field. COBB is 13-21 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) I know Henry the Snakes starter does not have great numbers this season, but he is undervalued here according to my own pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West. Play on the DBacks to win |
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05-11-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. 76ers | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
With the backs up against the proverbial wall, Im betting on a huge bounce back effort from the Celtics in classic zig zag theory mode. They played lousy D, and inconsistent offense and will easily uptrend in their return to the court. Don't count the never say die Celtics out is my moto for tonight. Remember last season when the Celtics won Game 6 on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks and then captured the series in seven games. Quote: "If you're not willing to pretty much get dirty, if you're not willing to bleed, if you're not willing to break something, willing to tear something going hard, then you shouldn't be on that court, because that's what it is," Marcus Smart said. "That's what the playoffs are about. Hopefully you stay safe, but that's the mentality. You gotta go, you gotta be willing to risk it all for these games. end Quote BOSTON is 20-7 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more. BOSTON is 15-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. BOSTON is 15-4 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a home loss are 51-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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05-11-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -125 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Devils imploded on themselves vs the Hurricanes in game 4 of this series as the Canes recorded a 6-1 win in Game 4 on Tuesday to secure a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and with the proverbial death blow at hand Im betting on the more experienced Canes to bring home the cash . New Jersey coach Lindy Ruff said. "We had guys who just went rogue. You can call that lack of experience, even the power play turned into one man trying to do something and then the next man trying to do something." The Devils lack of play off experience is the difference maker here as is home ice advantage for the Canes. Hurricanes are 41-15 in their last 56 home games.Hurricanes are 24-9 in their last 33 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Hurricanes are 36-15 in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference.Hurricanes are 38-16 in their last 54 games following a win.Hurricanes are 21-9 in their last 30 Conference Semifinals games. NEW JERSEY is 0-11 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS in home games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or more of shots against this season.CAROLINA is 23-7 ATS in home games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 3 seasons. Play on Carolina to win |
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05-11-23 | Rays v. Yankees +110 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Im betting the Rays will soon regress offensively, after a very fast open to their season. Yankees starter German while viable is not as viable a pitcher as Rasmussen, but Germans bullpen is better and Im betting the Yankees will hang tough in this tilt and at this offering are viable underdog selections. Note: Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Rasmussen. NYY starter GERMAN is 18-4 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in his career. (Team's Record) GERMAN is 10-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-11 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 5 starts 44-17 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Rays are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Play on NYY to win |
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05-11-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 10 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Reds will send right-handed reliever Derek Law (2-4, 3.00)to the hill in his fifth career start as an opener among his 210 major league appearances. Right-hander Ben Lively is will make his first big-league appearance since 2019 with Kansas City. This will be a nice weather afternoon tilt with temps in the high 70s and light wind blowing out to center. With two average major league baseball starters on the hill Im betting on a boatload of runs going on the board this afternoon. Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games. Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. National League East.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Reds last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Play over |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6.5 | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
The senior laden Lakers are probably pretty tired right now, after playing all out hoops in 4 straight games, and will have a hard time here against Golden State that plays their best hoops at home as is evident by their 36-10 home record this season. GOLDEN STATE is 15-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS ( in home games off a loss against a division rival this season Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.LA LAKERS are 8-20 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons.MLB team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 55-22 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (LA LAKERS) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs, in a playoff game are 113-173 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors |
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05-10-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
Its going to be a fairly cool night in Chicago with temps near 60 and the wind blowing in from Center/right field, and Im betting on a lower scoring game that benefits the pitchers and not the hitters. It must also be noted the Cubs have seen more than 8 runs combined scored in just one of their L/8 games and only twice in their L/13 trips to the diamonds. Play under |
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05-10-23 | White Sox v. Royals +123 | 1-9 | Win | 123 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The White Sox won yesterday but thats not always a good omen for this underperforming side as is evident by going 2-11 in their last 13 games following a win.Note: White Sox starter LYNN is 10-16 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are also 3-13 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series and are are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Royals expected starter Keller. White Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City and Im betting they go down in proverbial flames tonight. (MLB Team's RecordMLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season are 9-28 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 76% conversion rate. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
The Knicks have their backs up against the proverbial wall , as Miami will try to close out this series tonight. Im betting that will be delayed by a desperate side. The Knicks pulled down an average of 46.6 rebounds per game during the regular season, tied for second-most in the NBA, and out-rebounded foes by 4.5 per game and tonight Im betting we see them at their best and very physical as they leave everything on the court. MIAMI is 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. NEW YORK is 12-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 20-46 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Knicks to cover |
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05-10-23 | Mets v. Reds +146 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
The Mets are vulnerable at moment and in a bit of a funk and even with Verlander on the hill their favorite status is bloated. NY METS are 2-7 against the money line in May games this season.NY METS are 3-15 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. NY METS are 3-9 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 6 runs or more 2 straight games are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati to win |
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