Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-11-23 | Twins +183 v. Blue Jays | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays' scheduled starter is right-hander Kevin Gausman (5-3, 2.63). In 10 career starts against Minnesota, he is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA, After losing the first two games of this series, the consensus is that Toronto will bounce back here, but Im going the other way in true contrarian fashion. It must be noted that the Twins have won 12 of their past 15 games in Toronto and are being disrespected here on this line. I know Gausman had a tremendous outing last time out against Houston recording 13 SO in a victory, but now Im betting on immediate regression in an emotional and physical letdown situation. GAUSMAN is 3-7 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 12-21 against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record) SCHNEIDER is 17-23 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of TORONTO. Play on Minnesota to win |
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06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
In the series finale, New York right-hander Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.94 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (7-2, 3.60 ERA). The pitching advantage goes to the Pirates and their bullpen is stable enough to clean things up when need be. I know Keller has been roughed up in his l/2 starts but hes a viable pitcher and a bounce back is a favorable option. Meanwhile, Corrasco seems to be on the downside of his career as his SO ratio is way down this season, (10% below his career average). PITTSBURGH is 17-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Pirates are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 overall. NY METS are 2-11 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. National League Central.Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 overall. Play on Pittsburgh to win |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights +102 v. Panthers | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The Panthers were fortunate to eek out a win in game 3 of this series, in OT. Watching this series and using my own power rankings adjusted data is obvious to me the Knights are the superior side.It must noted Florida has scored two regulation goals or less in nine of their last 10 games and are lucky to have lasted this long into the play offs, despite of a lackluster season that saw them just sneak into the post season after a mediocre campaign. Now with key cogs Matthew Tkachuk and Brandon Montour banged up things should become even more difficult for the Panthers. Advantage Knights. VEGAS is 30-12 ATS revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite this season. Golden Knights are 12-2 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Golden Knights are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Golden Knights are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. Atlantic.Golden Knights are 27-10 in their last 37 vs. a team with a winning record.Golden Knights are 15-6 in their last 21 road games. Play on Vegas to win |
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06-10-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees -116 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Boston has lost 8 of their L/11 and look to be adding to that negative column tonight against Yankees starter German who has seen his team win his L/3 starts. Meanwhile Boston's Tanner Houck (3-5, 5.46 ERA) will bring a seven-game winless skid into Saturdays action. Im betting his current negative run continues even though he will not have to face the injured Aaron Judge. Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.Red Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing record. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games are 172-114 L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NYY to win |
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06-10-23 | Astros +120 v. Guardians | 6-4 | Win | 120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
The Astros right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.44 ERA) goes to the hill on Saturday. The rookie received a no-decision after allowing three hits over seven innings of one-run ball against the Los Angeles Angels this past Sunday. He had a no-hitter for the first 5 1/3 innings of that tilt and enters this game with momentum making the Astros a viable underdog.France owns a 29-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first six career starts spanning 34 innings and is a under rated hurler at his time.HOUSTON is 40-26 (against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland has won three straight, while Houston has dropped a season-high four consecutive games, but it will be the desperation of a hard working Houston group that will the difference maker tonight.
Play on the Astros to win |
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06-10-23 | Astros v. Guardians UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Astros starting hurler France owns a 29-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first six career starts covering 34 innings and will Im betting make life difficult on the Cleveland Guardians batting order. Cleveland will fire back with right-hander Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00), who is off a successful season debut. He returned after being out with a major muscle strain and allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out 10 over five scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. He still not 100% but his bullpen should at least help keep the Astros bats to minimal production as compared to out expectations. After yesterdays 10-9 victory by the Guardians in extra innings Im betting on immediate offensive regression. Under is 10-1 in Astros last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 9-4 in Astros last 13 during game 2 of a series.Under is 11-5 in Astros last 16 road games. Under is 25-8-1 in Guardians last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 20-7 in Guardians last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 22-8 in Guardians last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 29-11-1 in Guardians last 41 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 5-2 in Guardians last 7 Saturday games.Under is 43-18-1 in Guardians last 62 vs. a team with a winning record. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 7.1 rpg. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Play under |
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06-10-23 | Padres v. Rockies +119 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
San Diego beat Colorado 9-6 on Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Denver, but that has not been a good omen in the past for the Fathers as they have lost 5 of 6 after a victory. Padres starter WEATHERS is 0-7 against the money line when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)COLORADO is 9-3 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season like Weathers. Weathers is 0-1 with a 9.69 ERA in his four career appearances (three starts) against the Rockies, all of which came in his rookie year of 2021. More pain to come here today is my bet. The Rockies stater FREELAND is 34-16 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) since 1997. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 41-23 against the money line in day games in his career. (Team's Record) note: Freeland, who will face the Padres for the second time this season threw six scoreless innings in the second game of the season to get the victory. Play on Colorado to win SAN DIEGO is 3-11 against the money line on the road when the total is 11 or higher over the last 3 seasons.Padres are 17-35 in their last 52 road games with the total set at 11 or higher.Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. |
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06-09-23 | Cubs +105 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Cubs starter Stroman is on a tear right now winning his L/3 games while posting a minuscule 0.78 ERA. In his current form he gives the Cubbies a strong chance of victory tonight in SF. SAN FRANCISCO is 15-35 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Stroman whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons. Giants are 17-45 in their last 62 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Cubs are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series. Play on the Chicago Cubs to win |
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06-09-23 | Mystics v. Storm +12.5 | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
06-09-23 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Heat | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Then came game 3 where the rust was completely off as the Nuggets dominated a Heat side that is now suffering regression after a strong play off run. Still the fresher of both sides and according to my power rankings the superior side , the Nuggets get the nod again as road favs in game 4. From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.13 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 4 victory out and grab the cover in the process.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season. DENVER is 29-12 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - averaging 45 or less rebounds/game on the season, after a game being out-rebounded by opponent by 20 or more are 14-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 14-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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06-09-23 | Astros -118 v. Guardians | 9-10 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Houstons offense has done their best work vs lLHP this season as is evident by averaging 5.5 rpg on a .276 BA and and should one again fair well vs Cleveland's southpaw hurler Allen. Also my pitcher vs power rankings suggest Christian Javier the Astros starter has the edge here, as is evident by a solid 2.84 overall ERA and a recent 1.59 ERA in his L/3 starts all victories. Both sides, have solid bullpens, but the difference maker comes on offense, where Cleveland owns a ugly .233 BA at home where they average just 3.1 rpg. Guardians are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series. HOUSTON is 30-15 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons like Allen. Astros are 40-11 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter like Allen. Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 road games.Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Astros are 14-5 in the last 19 meetings.Astros are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Cleveland.Play on Houston to win |
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06-09-23 | Twins v. Blue Jays -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
The Twins have lost 5 straight and are fade material in their current form.
Jays lefty starter KIKUCHI is 17-9 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Minnesota has struggled against LHP this season averaging just 3.5 rpg via a nasty looking .224 BA and are a disadvantage tonight that has won 7 of their L/8 games overall while allowing 2 runs or less in 6 of those tilts. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 8-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to win |
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06-08-23 | Cubs +117 v. Angels | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Angels left-hander Reid Detmers (0-5, 5.15 ERA) will make his 11th start of the season on Thursday and is fade material in his current form. I know he has a decent bullpen behind him, but he is the type of hurler that can implode and put his team in the hole quickly. DETMERS is 7-16 ( against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly (5-3, 3.56 ERA) goes to the hill for the Cubs. SMYLY is 49-33 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 in his career. (Team's Record) SMYLY is 21-13 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) LA ANGELS are 1-13 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons like Smyly. Note:Angels outfielder Hunter Renfroe will miss this game as he is off with paternity leave. Cubs are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.Cubs are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Cubs to win |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights +110 v. Panthers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 51 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are looking very cohesive entering this game and according to my current power rankings matchup very well vs the Florida Panthers as was evident in the first two lopsided wins for the Knights in game 1 and 2 of this series. You have to remember that this Panthers team barely snuck into the play offs after a sub par season and after a great run may now be going into regression mode that brings them back to the mean average. I know the Panthers are playing at home and in desperation mode, but my money rides with what is now a very confident group of Vegas Knights.FLORIDA is 1-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6 goals or more this season which was the case last time out in a 7-2 loss) .Golden Knights are 7-2 in their last 9 road games. Golden Knights are 40-19 in their last 59 vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the Golden Knights to win |
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06-08-23 | Aces v. Sun UNDER 169.5 | 77-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play under |
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06-08-23 | Giants v. Rockies +166 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Chase Anderson owns a stingy 1.72 ERA at home in Coors Field this season, and is a viable underdog hurler to back here today . Meanwhile, Giants starting pitcher COBB is 2-8 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Giants are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League West.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play on Colorado to win |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2 v. Heat | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 40 h 34 m | Show | |
The Nuggets after a long lay off had a rust vs rest situation manifest positively for them in game 1 against a tired group of the Heat. However, in game 2 you could see the Nuggets looked less than cohesive despite of entering the 4th quarter of that tilt up by 8 points before completely falling apart in the 4th quarter for their first loss at home in these play offs. Now with this being their 3rd game off extended rest, Im betting we will see the Nuggets at their optimal setting, and with the added incentive of a bounce back performance look like very viable short favs on the road today according to my overall power rankings. From a overall SRS perspective Denver is the superior side. Note: Denver ranks 6th in the league with a +3.04 mark while Miami ranks 19th with a -0.34 mark. So according to this SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM -a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average the Nuggets are the true favs even with home court advantage taken into consideration. the lines-makers have it right, and with that said, Im also on the Nuggets to pull a game 3 victory out. NBA team (DENVER) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Miami won 111-108) NBA Favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 44-12 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Denver has won and covered their L/3 most recent visits to Miami. Play on Denver Nuggets to win/cover |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. Malone is 15-5 OVER off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. MIAMI is 20-11 OVER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play over |
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06-07-23 | Dodgers v. Reds +150 | 6-8 | Win | 150 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
The Dodgers pitching staff is not as strong it has been in recent seasons, and their starter today Noah Syndergaard has not looked as dominating as he did in the past as is evident by his 6.45 ERA and a 9.90 road ERA in 20 innings of sub par work. With that said, their is to much value here to pass up fading Syndergaard in his current form. Note: Dodgers bullpen owns a bloated 5.73 road ERA. CINCINNATI is 21-7 L/28 against the money line at home when the total is 11 or higher. LA DODGERS are 11-19 against the money line vs. good base-running teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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06-07-23 | Twins +130 v. Rays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The Rays go with a bullpen game on Monday led by Shawn Armstrong. However, with that said my data and power rankings suggest not only is the Twins starting pitcher Lopez under rated but their bullpen has also proven to be of the top tier variety early on this season as is evident by a solid 3.45 overall ERA. Lopez has won his L/2 starts vs Cleveland and Toronto and gets my support here on a value line.Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.Rays are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.Twins are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Minnesota Twins to win |
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06-06-23 | Mariners +120 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 120 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
Seattles starter GILBERT is 15-4 against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 9-1) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). GILBERT is 19-7 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Seattles starter Gilbert. Im betting Gilbert has a decent night, vs a Padres squad that has the seventh-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging 4.10 runs per game while rankings) 21st in OPS+ 96. I know the Mariners are not much better, but it must be noted the Padres starter Musgrove, is just 3-10 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)SEATTLE is 25-10 against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League West.Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.Mariners are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. SAN DIEGO is 6-12 against the money line in home games in night games this season. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 37-13 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Seattle Mariners |
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06-06-23 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
I know both these offenses have been less than consistent this season, but my pitcher vs power rankings suggest this Totals line offers value for over bettors based on my projections that suggest runs output to be closer to 8.3 . Seattles starting pitcher GILBERT is 15-4 OVER in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. Padres starting right handed hurler MUSGROVE is 16-6 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. Over is 21-6 in Mariners last 27 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Musgrove. SEATTLE is 16-4 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. SEATTLE is 21-9 OVER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scored. Over is 15-5-1 in Padres last 21 vs. American League West.Over is 33-15-3 in Padres last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 37-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego. Play over |
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06-06-23 | Fever v. Sky -6 | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the Sky to cover |
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06-06-23 | Red Sox +110 v. Guardians | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The Red Sox will send left-hander fire baller James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) to the hill in the series opener. He allowed one run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last week. Paxton had pitched a total of 21 2/3 innings in his previous three seasons due to a number of injuries, but looks now to be back in top form and health. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his first four outings this season, while recording 27 strikeouts in 19 innings and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well against the light hitting guardians.BOSTON is 18-4 against the money line vs. sub standard power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Note:Cleveland starting right-hander Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA), enters this game in a bit of a funk after allowing seven runs over four innings against the Baltimore Orioles last week.Bieber has recorded a 3-3 record along with a bloated 5.50 ERA in six career tilts (five starts) vs. BoSox and is fade material here today.The Red Sox offense rank top-eight against right-handed pitching. Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day. Guardians are 1-11 in their last 12 Tuesday games. Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Play on the Boston Red Sox to win |
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06-05-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -131 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
After a long lay off the Panthers looked out of sorts in game 1 of this series, and it also looked like that extended rest broke the momentum held by their s goalie Sergei Bobrovsky who was red hot in the post season despite a mediocre reg season, mimicking his teams overall performance that saw them barely squeeze into the playoffs. Note: Bobrovsky was 24-20-3 in 49 games during the regular season, and his 3.07 GAA ranked him 27th among the 42 NHL goalies who played at least 30 games. Meanwhile, the Knights net-minder Hill is having an amazing postseason, leading all puck stoppers with a .938 save percentage including eight quality starts in 10 games during the playoffs Vegas is now a team to be reckoned with as was evident in their 5-2 game 1 victory. Note: Florida has never won a Stanley Cup Finals game, that was their 5th straight loss in championship round. Rinse and repeat. Golden Knights are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Golden Knights are 19-7 in their last 26 home games. Golden Knights are 15-4 in their last 19 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game Vegas is 6-0 L/6 vs the Panthers including 3-0 SU at home. Play on Golden Knights to win |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Rangers starter Martin Perez has pitched his best baseball at home this season garnering. a 1. 93 ERA in 18.7 innings of work and my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Cards and should once again have. a stable outing . Under is 11-4 in Cardinals last 15 inter-league road games vs. a left-handed starter like Perez.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 inter-league games.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games. On the flip-side , I know former cy Young award candidate Wainwright (2-1, 6.15 ERA) has yet to complete six innings, and his ERA is nearly double his career mark of 3.41, but hes to talented not see upward momentum, and must be respected to keep the explosive Rangers bats at bay. Under is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 overall. ST LOUIS is 28-15 UNDER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored in this 33 tilts. ST LOUIS is 20-9 UNDER in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 rpg. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 40-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for. a 82% conversion rate. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.Under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings. Play under |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The Cardinals will be facing Texas left-hander Martin Perez (6-1, 4.43) and despite of not pitching at home in over a month showed he enjoyed being on the hill at home going 3-0 along with a stingy 1.93 ERA. Im betting on home cooking being favorable to him again and for the Rangers to bring home the cash.PEREZ is 15-3 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)PEREZ is 21-7 against the money line in June games in his career (Team's Record) Cardinals are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League West.Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter like Wainwright.Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Wainwright.Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 20-7 in their last 27 overall. Cardinals are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings.Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Texas. Play on the Texas Rangers to win |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8 | 111-108 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are still well rested , while the Heat must still be feeling some exhaustion after their grueling 7 game series, with the Celtics and than immediately leaving for the Rockies to play in the Mile High City. This is never an easy venue to play in and nothing will change tonight for a Heat side, that according to my current power rankings is over matched . Hey Im not knocking the Heat, as they are a talented hard working group, but the physical toll of play off hoops Im betting will take its toll on them vs a very fresh Denver side, that has had one game to get the rust off, and now could easily be even more explosive in game 2 of this series. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season. MIAMI is 0-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season.Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Denver is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 in this series including 4-0 SU/ATS as hosts. Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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06-04-23 | Yankees +136 v. Dodgers | 4-1 | Win | 136 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
NYY starter German is in good form so far this season, garnering a 3-3 record along with a 3.98 ERA in 10 starts. He’s struck out 53 in 54.1 innings . His 0.98 WHIP is of the top tier variety and he must be respected here in LA on a vleu line tonight .GERMAN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.167. I know Miller the young Dodgers right handed hurler, has been strong since coming up from the minors because of rotational injuries, going 2-0 along with a 1.64 ERA in his first two MLB starts, however, Im betting regression is imminent against an explosive veteran Yankees lineup that could easily make this kid look mortal. Note: Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games.Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 road games. Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 34-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NYY to win |
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06-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Mets -125 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
The Jays won the first two games of this low scoring series , but Im betting their vaunted but recently struggling offense will have problems today dealing with the ghost forkball a pitch used by Mets right-hander Kodai Senga (5-3, 3.44 ERA) . The pitch has accounted for 39 of the 70 strikeouts Senga has in 10 starts this season, according to information provided by the Mets. NY METS are 36-19 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. SHOWALTER is 29-13 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 as the manager of NY METS. TORONTO is 11-18 against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY METS) - after scoring and allowing 4 runs or less last 3 games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Mets to win |
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06-04-23 | Rays -115 v. Red Sox | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rays right-hander Taj Bradley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) will start against the team he opposed in his MLB debut on April 12. He struck out eight in five innings of three-run ball, helping the Rays in their four-game series sweep and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to manifest itself here today in Fenway. Rays are 13-5 in their last 18 during game 3 of a series.Rays are 39-15 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like BoSox Starter Houck. TAMPA BAY is 37-13 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play on Tampa Bay to win |
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06-03-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -123 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The Panthers enter this game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals with nine days off . Im betting alot of the momentum they gained during this play off run may well have worn of now , and will be hard thier star goalie Bobrovsky to get back on the flow he had during these play offs. I know Florida has won 7 of 8 road games in the play offs, but 5 of those games went to OT, and they were far from dominating . Meanwhile, Vegas is rested , but not to the extent of Florida and will more easily get into the flow of things here in game 1 on their own home ice where they garnered a 6-3 play off record and a overall 25-15-2 record this season. The key difference maker tonight will be in even man play as Vegas is averaging 3.42 even-strength goals per 60, ranking No,1 in the post season. Also Vegas netminder, Hill has been playing some of his best hockey of the season as he owns a 5-2 record, a 1.99 GAA and a .941 save percentage in his past seven tilts. VEGAS is 12-5 ATS as a # 1 seed in the playoffs this season.FLORIDA is 13-19 ATS in non-conference games this season. Golden Knights are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. Atlantic.Golden Knights are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.Golden Knights are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Play on Vegas to win |
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06-03-23 | Yankees -115 v. Dodgers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Yankees starter COLE is 10-0 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. (Team's Record)COLE is 16-3 against the money line in road games in June games in his career. (Team's Record)Cole (6-0, 2.93 ERA) has not lost a game this season in 12 starts and gets the nod again. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will replay with M. Grove (0-1, 8.44 ERA) has been out since April 21 with a strained right groin and fade material until he can get himself back in a regular rotational groove. Note:Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter and are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague games. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rare for bettors. Play on NYY to win |
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06-03-23 | Cardinals v. Pirates +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
On Saturday, St. Louis left-hander Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.48 ERA) and Pittsburgh right-hander Luis L. Ortiz (1-2, 4.35) are expected to start. Montgomery is tied for the team lead with five quality starts but is 0-6 with a 5.03 ERA over his past nine starts and Im betting his luck will continue to be bad here today vs a under rated Pittsburgh side off a win vs the Cards yesterday and playing at home. Cards lefty starter MONTGOMERY is 0-6 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)MONTGOMERY is 1-9 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-9 against the money line in the first half of the season this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 2-7 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Pirates are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter. PITTSBURGH is 14-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central. ST LOUIS is 7-12 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.MARMOL is 6-17 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) as the manager of ST LOUIS. Play on Pittsburgh to win |
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06-03-23 | Rays v. Red Sox -110 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
After an extremely fast start to their season the Rays have finally cooled off as is evident by losing 8 of their L/11 games. Im betting on that regression to continue here today in Fenway vs a Red Sox team averaging 6 rpg at home this season. It must be noted the Boston's starting pitchers have allowed four or fewer earned runs in 12 of the past 14 games . Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bos sox starter Whitlock. BOSTON is 9-2 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East. TAMPA BAY is 8-19 against the money line in road games in June games over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or worse), cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games and are 11-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. Play on Boston to win |
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06-02-23 | Orioles +145 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Kremer went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in five May starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of them and gives his team a very good chance at pulling off an underdog win here vs the Giants and their top tier starter Logan Webb tonight. Orioles starter KREMER is 8-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 15-1 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)KREMER is 9-2 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 12-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 17-22 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 43-19 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orioles to win |
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06-02-23 | Yankees +126 v. Dodgers | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
LA dodgers starter Kershaw (6-4, 3.32 ERA) will make his fifth career start against the Yankees. He does not have a win against them despite of a 1.67 ERA over 27 innings. Im betting he does not stay in tune with his previous efforts, as this version of the Yanks batting order own a .870 OPS against Kershaw in 140 plate appearances, With the Yanks sending right-hander Luis Severino (0-0, 1.59), to the hill for his third start of the season after a lat injury Im betting the Yanks have an edge on a value money line offering. Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES) - allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 26-11 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NYY to win |
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06-02-23 | Angels +117 v. Astros | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Right-hander Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 2.91 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Angels on Friday. He leads the majors in opponent batting average (.155), ranks second in WHIP (0.95) and fourth in strikeouts (90) and offers value as an underdog vs a defending World Series Champion side that does not look as potent as it has in recent seasons. The Angels after a out control event yesterday, that saw Manager Nevin ejected fro arguing balls and strikes will be primed to for a bounce-back effort after losing 5-2 yesterday. Motivation factor will be key for a Halos victory. HOUSTON is 2-8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Astros starter Valdez. Play on the LAA to win |
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06-02-23 | Aces v. Dream +12.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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06-02-23 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
We have two viable pitchers starting for each team (Gray vs Wheeler), but both bullpens are substandard as is their defenses. Its also going to be a hitters environment tonight as the wind is blowing out to center field with temps expected in the high 80s. With that said, Im betting this is value Totals offering that needs to be taken advantage of. Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 19-6-2 in the last 27 meetings.Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Washington. MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 39-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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06-02-23 | Cardinals v. Pirates +119 | 5-7 | Win | 119 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Pittsburghs starter CONTRERAS is 10-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CONTRERAS is 9-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series. Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are 14-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Advantage Pittsburgh Pirates ( play to win) |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
Western Conference - NBA Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 1 The Miami Heat after a dominating game 7 game win and series clincher against the Celtics will now be in an emotional letdown spot on the road in the high altitudes of the Mile High City. Im betting the combination of a playing a grueling 7 game series, and than taking a long trip from the East to the West will take its toll on the Heat here for game 1 in thin air environment that is never easy for opposing sides to play in. MIAMI is 0-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. Note: In Denver 38 home games this season the average ppg diff clicks in a +10.1 . NBA Favorites (DENVER) - in non-conference games, off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog.are 33-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Denver is 6-0 SU /ATS L/3 seasons vs the Heat including 3-0 SU/ATS at home. Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 19 m | Show | |
After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun. This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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06-01-23 | Sun v. Lynx UNDER 161.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 90 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or more are 196-127 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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06-01-23 | Guardians +125 v. Twins | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Guardians will start Tanner Bibee (1-1, 2.88 ERA) on Thursday giving the Guardians a good chance of cashing here as underdogs. Bibee will be opposed by right-hander Pablo Lopez (3-3, 4.11), a hurler that my power rankings suggest the Guardians batting order matches up well against. Note: The Twins are also in an emotional letdown spot after taking 2 of 3 from the defending World Series Champs the Houston Astros. Im betting a motivated group of Guardians that are now 3.5 games behind the Twins will be primed to claw out a win here in this spot play situation. Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win and are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. MLB Home teams (MINNESOTA) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 4.20) (AL), after 2 straight games with no home runs are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Guardians are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.Guardians are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. Play on the Guardians to win |
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06-01-23 | Rockies +157 v. Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks will send Zach Davies (0-1, 5.68 ERA) to the hill to face the Rockies this afternoon. I know the Rockies won the first 3 games of this 4 game series but Im betting they don't get the sweep. This will be Davies 2nd start since coming of the injured list, and he still does not look 100% and is vulnerable . In four starts vs. Colorado last year, Davies had no decisions and a 4.05 ERA and looked average at best. Also veteran Charlie Blackmon returns from a stint on the bereavement list, and should boost the Rockies sometimes doormat offense giving us an edge with a value based dog. COLORADO is 12-6 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Play on Colorado to win |
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06-01-23 | Brewers +176 v. Blue Jays | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Neither the Jays or the Brewers have been playing top tier baseball of late. But the one thing that stands out about the Jays sub par performances is a sudden lack of offense more often than one would expect with this type of lineup. For example in yesterdays 4-2 loss the the Brewers the Jays went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. With that said, Im betting on the Brewers to win this game in what is a coin flip event. The price does not match the situation or data thus giving us value with the underdog. Jays righty starter GAUSMAN is 3-8 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 1-7 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter. MILWAUKEE is 20-7 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 inter-league games vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 12-5 in their last 17 inter-league road games. The Blue Jays have lost each of their last seven games as home favorites after playing the previous day. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Brewers starter Peralta. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Play on the Brewers |
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05-31-23 | Yankees +129 v. Mariners | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
The Yankees are up-trending in top form as is evident by their 5-0 record in their last 5 vs. American League including a 6-0 record in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Seattles starterKirby .Yankees are also 6-0 in their last 6 road games and they get the nod again vs a Seattle side that is 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East.SEATTLE is 7-12 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 39-58. L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Yankees to win |
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05-31-23 | Rays -128 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Cubs starter Steele started fast this season in top form but has regressed lately going 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last four trips to the hill. Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter like Steele. Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, the CHICAGO CUBS are 14-24 against the money line against right-handed starters like Eflin this season.TAMPA BAY is 35-12 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a seriesEFLIN is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.326. STEELE is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 13.48 and a WHIP of 2.247. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win |
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05-31-23 | Rangers v. Tigers +125 | 2-3 | Win | 125 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas starter Dunning has pitched well this season so far but is do for regression. Note: DUNNING is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.78 and a WHIP of 1.125.DUNNING is 2-12 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-14 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-10 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-7 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Advantage Motown. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20% are 25-9 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on Detroit Tigers to win |
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05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Braves behind top tier pitcher Elder (3-0, 2.01 ERA) look like viable bets here tonight on the run-line vs a downtrodden As side. The right-hander's ERA ranks third among all qualified major league pitchers. Oakland ended an 11-game losing streak with a 7-2 victory on Monday, giving the A's just their 11th win this season and sixth at home. Im betting on them having immediate regression here today and for the Braves to be primed for a big win in redemption mode. Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. Braves are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland.OAKLAND is 1-19 SU vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with the average run per game diff clicking in at +4 which easily qualifies on this run line offering.OAKLAND is 8-41 SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.7. Play on Atlanta Braves -1.5 to win |
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05-30-23 | Yankees +135 v. Mariners | 10-2 | Win | 135 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.30 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.60). My power rankings suggest the Yanks have the edge here. Note:Gilbert is 1-1 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. GILBERT is 2-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East. SEATTLE is 12-19 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Yankees are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings.Yankees are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Seattle. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 10 runs or more are 11-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Yankees to win |
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05-30-23 | Reds +175 v. Red Sox | 9-8 | Win | 175 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Reds are expected to start right-hander Ben Lively (2-2, 2.65 ERA) on Tuesday night . It must be noted that the Bosox are below .500 vs ( 15-19 )against right-handed starters this season. |
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05-30-23 | Brewers +135 v. Blue Jays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Jays starter Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his past three starts. He started this season off fast but now he is fade material in his current form. KIKUCHI is 3-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Recor Meanwhile, the Brewers are expected to start right-hander Adrian Houser (1-0, 2.25) who according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well vs a Jays side that is 4-10 L/14 overall. It must be noted Houser has pitched much better against right handed hitters than southpaw batters in his career, and considering the amount of righty hitting stars in the Jays lineup that is a good omen for us backing the Brewers on value line in this matchup. MILWAUKEE is 19-6 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 28-13 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. COUNSELL is 25-13 against the money line against AL East opponents as the manager of MILWAUKEE. MLBRoad underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 26-13 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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05-30-23 | Fever +13 v. Sun | 78-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the Fever to cover |
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05-30-23 | Sky v. Dream UNDER 161.5 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the UNDER |
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05-29-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
The Heat took the first 3 games of this series while the Celtics have won the last 3. But the Heat finally came to life in the last 5 min of the last game, and narrowly lost 104-103. Im betting the Heats regression is now over and will give what must be an exhausted Boston side all they can handle here in game 7. Teams like Boston that were down 0-3 in a NBA play off series are 0-149 lifetime . NBA team (MIAMI) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 27-8 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion. .Play on Miami to cover |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a straight up loss.NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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05-29-23 | Twins +118 v. Astros | 7-5 | Win | 118 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch a victory at a value price. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in 54 1/3 innings of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked very viable at times but according to my power rankings this is a bad matchup for him. Houston is also set for major regression today after a season-high seven home runs the in their 10-1 road win over the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Note: HOUSTON is 3-10 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 1-7 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Play on Minnesota to win |
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05-29-23 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 8 | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Twins and gives the Twins a strong opportunity to notch another top notch effort. He leads the majors in ERA, adjusted ERA-plus (236) and fielding independent pitching (2.02), and has yet to give up a home run in 54 1/3 innings of quality work this season. His opponent, Rookie right-hander J.P. France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) has looked very viable at times and will also help keep this score to the low side of the offered total. Both these bullpens have also been in good form this season and deserve respect to pick up where the starters left off. Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 vs. American League Central.Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning recordUnder is 16-5 in Astros last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter like Gray. Under is 20-8 in Astros last 28 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 9-4-1 in Astros last 14 home games. MINNESOTA is 18-6 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored.Under is 32-15-5 in Twins last 52 vs. American League West.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 1 of a series. Under is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings. Play on the under |
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05-29-23 | Rangers -158 v. Tigers | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Detroit will send left-hander Matthew Boyd to the hill vs the Rangers. Boyd (3-3, 5.74) has a win and a no-decision in his last two starts but hasn't gone deep in those games and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here vs a Rangers side that has hit lefties hard this season as is evident by averaging 7.7 rpg via a 290 BA. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has overpowered opposing offenses in his last five starts. Eovaldi is coming off a complete-game victory at Pittsburgh 6 days ago. He held the Pirates to one run on six hits and one walk while striking out five and throwing 104 pitches. In three of his previous four starts before the above mentioned top tier effort vs the Pirates, Eovaldi (6-2, 2.60 ERA) held his opposition scoreless and lasted at least eight innings. Overall during the five-game span , the veteran righty has allowed four runs and 22 hits while garnering 35 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings of lightning work. Advantage on the hill goes to Texas. Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. TEXAS is 21-8 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. Tigers are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Tigers are 51-111 in their last 162 vs. American League West. MLB team (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.70 to 6.20)-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 29-3 L/26 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas to win |
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05-28-23 | Phillies +230 v. Braves | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Right-hander Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA), acquired on waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 20, will get his first start with the Phillies against Atlanta. Im betting the Braves light him up and put a heaping helping amount of runs on the board that will help us get over this total. Meanwhile, the Braves will send fire baller Strider to the hill. We love heavy fastball pitchers but he has lost his past two decisions and allowed four runs in each of his two previous starts. In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Dodgers, Strider pitched six innings and allowed four runs (two earned) on five hits, three walks and 11 strikeouts and Im also betting the Phillies sold offense should do some damage tonight,ATLANTA is 27-16 OVER vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg going on the board.ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 4 of a series.Over is 12-4-1 in Phillies last 17 vs. National League East.Over is 7-3-3 in Phillies last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Play over |
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05-28-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Right-hander Dylan Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA), acquired on waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 20, will get his first start with the Phillies against Atlanta. Im betting the Braves light him up and put a heaping helping amount of runs on the board that will help us get over this total. Meanwhile, the Braves will send fire baller Strider to the hill. We love heavy fastball pitchers but he has lost his past two decisions and allowed four runs in each of his two previous starts. In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Dodgers, Strider pitched six innings and allowed four runs (two earned) on five hits, three walks and 11 strikeouts and Im also betting the Phillies sold offense should do some damage tonight,ATLANTA is 27-16 OVER vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg going on the board.ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 4 of a series.Over is 12-4-1 in Phillies last 17 vs. National League East.Over is 7-3-3 in Phillies last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Play over |
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05-28-23 | Reds v. Cubs -150 | 8-5 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Cincinnati starter Ashcraft is 0-3 with a 12.98 ERA in his last four outings and 0-4 with an 11.88 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs and is fade material here once again in Chicago today. Meanwhile, the Cubs will send left-hander Drew Smyly (5-1, 2.93) to the hill . The Cubs hurler, has allowed two or fewer runs in nine straight starts, posting a 2.13 ERA during that stretch and deserves respect here as a favorite. SMYLY is 31-18 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in his career. (Team's Record) SMYLY is 15-4 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 5 starts are 27-9 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cubs to win |
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05-28-23 | Padres +140 v. Yankees | 7-10 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
NYY starter Cole (5-0, 2.53 ERA) is on a run of six straight no-decisions, since winning five of his first six trips to the hill. Of late , he has looked ordinary at best as is evident by a 4.67 ERA including allowing six HRs in 27 innings of mediocre work and as a result the NYY are being over rated today. Meanwhile, the The Padres will start Yu Darvish (3-3, 3.67), who owns a 3-1 record along with a 1.64 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, and is a viable underdog selection that is backed by a solid bullpen and viable enough offense to find the win column. Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter like the NYY starter Cole. Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Padres starter Darvish..Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Play on San Diego to win |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
The Celtics in their last two games are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.Play under |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
The Heat after an amazing play off run and top tier game 3 performance in this series , looked to have hit their peak and now regression has reared its ugly head. With the Celtics now in top form the Heat are in trouble, and Im betting on at least one more meltdown here tonight by the home side in Miami against what my power rankings suggest is a superior Celtics side.Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Celtics own a 5-2 mark in their L/7 trips to Miami.BOSTON is 14-6 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MIAMI is 8-21 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Play on Celtics to cover |
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05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights -131 | 4-2 | Loss | -131 | 39 h 55 m | Show | |
Dallas left everything on the ice in game 4 of this series with a 3-2 OT win to extend it to a 5th game in Las Vegas. The Stars even though they found a way to win last time out, just dont seem to have the same grit and fortitude as the Knights, and now in an emotional letdown spot, could easily regress against a very determined Knights group playing at home. Stars are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.Stars are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Golden Knights are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Golden Knights are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Golden Knights are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Central. Golden Knights are 23-9 in their last 32 home games. Favorite is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Golden Knights to win |
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05-27-23 | Dodgers +116 v. Rays | 6-5 | Win | 116 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (6-4, 2.98 ERA) takes to the mound after being away from the club a few days due to personal reasons and Im betting the veteran is now rested and fresh enough to give the Rays batting order all they can handle. KERSHAW is 4-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 0.846. KERSHAW is 93-34against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record). KERSHAW is 150-55 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in his career. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, the Rays will reply with starter who Glasnow has been sidelined by injuries. Im betting he will take some time to get back to viability giving the Dodgers an edge. Glasnow doesn't have much history facing the Dodgers. In four innings, all in relief, he has allowed six runs, leading to an bloated 13.50 ERA. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 inter-league road games vs. a right-handed starter.Dodgers are 72-24 in their last 96 during game 2 of a series. Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games are 8-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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05-27-23 | Pirates v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez (4-3, 3.06 ERA) is expected to be activated from the injured list to face Seattle ace Luis Castillo (3-2, 2.97). Velasquez iw fresh but rusty after the lay off and Im betting the Mariners tag him for some offensive production early. Meanwhile , Castillo according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Pirates matchup well here, and more runs than anticipated by the pundits and lines-makers should easily help up get an over wager to cash here. PITTSBURGH is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons. Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 25-10-1 in Pirates last 36 vs. American League West. Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Velesquez. Over is 9-4 in Mariners last 13 during game 2 of a series. MLB team (SEATTLE) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 31-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rare for bettors. Play on the over |
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05-27-23 | Padres v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Right-hander Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.58 ERA) will start Saturday for the Padres. He has allowed one run over his past four starts and is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA in those appearances and Im betting on another strong effort today in NY. Meanwhile, the Yanks will respond with Right-hander Luis Severino (0-0, 1.93) who will make his second start since returning from a right lat strain that cost him nearly two months to begin the season. Severino fell one out shy of qualifying for the win in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon when he allowed one run on four hits and struck out five in 4 2/3 innings. Severino is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 16 career inter-league appearances (14 starts). Im expecting Severino to be stronger here of the extended lay off. . With that said, im betting on a pitchers duel and bullpen relief that help keep this score on the low side of the total. Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0 in Padres last 6 interleague road games.Under is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 vs. American League East.Under is 10-1 in Padres last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 8-1-1 in Padres last 10 during game 2 of a series.Under is 14-2-1 in Padres last 17 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. SAN DIEGO is 15-2 UNDER\ when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season with combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER in an inter-league game this season with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 10-2 UNDER in home games after a loss this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored. Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 vs. National League West. Play under |
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05-26-23 | Mets v. Rockies +200 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Scherzer has not pitched well in his career at Coors Field. In six career appearances in the Mile High city the veteran has gone 0-3 along with a bloated 6.39 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP and is fade material on a value line. Mets are 4-11 in their last 15 road games. NY METS are 1-8 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.NY METS are 3-8 against the money line in road games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.COLORADO is 61-49 against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MLB Road teams (NY METS) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a sub par starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or higher ) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 13-34 L/26 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado to win |
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05-26-23 | Nationals v. Royals -120 | 12-10 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
I like the Royals today as they had the day off and their bullpen should be fresh and able to support Lyles if he gets in trouble. The Royals also got to rest at home during this extended home stand and will be ready to play. Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington starter CORBIN is 4-19 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Royals starter LYLES is 12-7 against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter like KC starter Lyles. WASHINGTON is also 1-10 L/11 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.40 or worse Nationals are 6-13 in their last 19 inter-league games. Play on the KC Royals to win |
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05-26-23 | Padres v. Yankees +117 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.75 ERA), , goes to the ill for the Padres. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest the Yanks matchup well against him and haver an edge playing at home .Meanwhile, the Yanks will start international signee Randy Vasquez who makes his major league debut, he is being called up from the minors because of Germans suspension for using foreign material on balls. I actually betting this is more a bullpen pitching affair for the Yankees and Vasquez will be closely monitored and allowed to go til he gets in trouble. Bottom line the Padres despite of beating up on the lowly Nats in this last series, have not played consistent baseball this season and are being over rated in this tilt vs a the Yankees. Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 inter-league games vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 58-27 in their last 85 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Yankees are 73-35 in their last 108 home games. Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.SAN DIEGO is 7-13 against the money line in May games this season. Padres are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in New York. Play on NYY to win |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
The Heat played their best game of the play offs in game 3 of this series and after an amazing run during the post season, they finally showed some regression as they suffered a down effort in game 4 losing by a DD deficit . With that said, Im betting on further regression here to the mean as the Heat begin to play down to true talent levels against a Boston side that is overall superior in talent and also in desperation mode as they look to avoid elimination and extend this series. Quote:"Yeah, everybody was in good spirits, everybody was upbeat, and as cliche as it sounds, we just tried to take it one game at a time," Tatum said. "We didn't play well the first three games, we didn't deserve to win, but we didn't want that to define us, define the season."We've still got a long uphill battle to go. But (Tuesday) was a good start. Just to try to carry this momentum toward Thursday." End quote. Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -110 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Im betting on Dallas to find a way to extend this series to 5 games with a home win tonight in desperation mode. (Vegas won the last game 4-0 after taking two narrow 1 goals wins in the first two games of this series) Stars are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.DALLAS is 32-12 ATS off an embarrassing home loss where they were shut out since 1996. DALLAS is 20-8 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.Stars are 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Play on Dallas to win |
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05-25-23 | Padres v. Nationals +172 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
. Padres southpaw starter SNELL is 4-11 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-8 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) SNELL is 1-14 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Nationals have done their best work against lefties this season garnering 5.1 rpg via a .289 BA and deserve respect here as home underdogs in this spot play. Meanwhile, the Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Nats starting hurler Irvin. Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. Play on the Washington Nationals to win |
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05-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Todays pitching matchup features: Toronto's Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.15 ERA) opposite Tampa Bay's Zach Eflin (6-1, 3.45) in a duel of right-handers. Jays starter MANOAH is 9-15 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rays are 124-51 in their last 175 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Manoah and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings is fade material here vs the Rays . Rays starter EFLIN is 24-7 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) Elfin has looked good this season, and shown great consistency with his breaking stuff, and deserves respect here as a favorite. Blue Jays are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. TAMPA BAY is 22-5 against the money line in home games this seasonTAMPA BAY is 55-28 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. Rays are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play on the Rays to win |
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05-25-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +161 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Cardinals, have dropped two of the first three in the series and Im betting against them here again today as their starter Mikolas makes his 17th career appearance and 15th start against the Cincinnati Reds . The Cards righty hurler has just one victory in his last 12 appearances against the Reds, recording a 0-3 record along with a bloated 7.94 ERA in his last six starts in Cincinnati and is fade material here this afternoon, MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 31-16 L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.( Reds Starter Weaver qualifies) CINCINNATI is 21-7 against the money line at home when the total is 11 or higher since 1997. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-24-23 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Tyler Wells (3-1, 2.94 ERA), who is the major league leader in WHIP (0.79) and opponents' batting average (.168, second), will start for the Orioles on Wednesday. Im betting he keeps the explosive Yankees bats at bay. Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.21 ERA) will be on the hill for the Yanks . The southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in six innings at Toronto on Thursday and is finally starting to uptrend in my power rankings after a slow start to this season. Cortes 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts) against Baltimore and Im betting he continues his upward momentum tonight in what will be some cool night time temps that favor the pitchers. CORTES is 19-8 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 24-12 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-2 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League East.Under is 8-3-2 in Orioles last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the UNDER |
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05-24-23 | Orioles v. Yankees -121 | 9-6 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Baltimore's starter. Wells is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his past six starts, but has not had any luck facing the NYY as his 0-4 record along with a 4.68 ERA would indicate. Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter like Wells. Meanwhile, Cortes the Yanks expected stater who is off a strong effort last time out for a win has momentum entering this tilt vs a Orioles side that he has had success against as is evident by a 4-0 record along with a 1.37 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts). BOONE is 106-42 against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the manager of NY YANKEES Orioles are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in New York. Play on the NYY to win |
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05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies +156 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Alcantara is a top tier hurler, but this season for some reason hes giving up plenty of hard contact and alot of line drives which is never a good omen when especially here in the Coors Field launching pad. The line is just to off, according to Alcantara's current form. Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 1-11 in their last 12 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Colorado.Play on Colorado |
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05-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers -106 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The Panthers are playing their best hockey of the season, and thanks to the play of their star goaltender Bobrovsky look to be headed towards a Stanley Cup finals appearance. CAROLINA is 0-5 ATS in road games after getting shutout in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. (Panthers pulled off a 1-0 victory last time out )FLORIDA is 6-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where 4 or fewer total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons. Hurricanes are 3-13 in their last 16 Conference Finals games. Hurricanes are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Florida.Hurricanes are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings. NHL Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (CAROLINA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Panthers to win |
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05-24-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +146 | 3-10 | Win | 146 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Cards lefty starter MATZ is 0-6 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) CINCINNATI is 8-0 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season. Cincinnati has clobbered LH pitchers this season averaging 5.3 rpg game via a .274 BA and are being under rated tonight. Cardinals are 20-41 in their last 61 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Reds Starter Lively. ST LOUIS is 3-9 against the money line when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-24-23 | Astros v. Brewers -102 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings. He is according to my pitcher power rankings and under rated hurler. Houser is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances, including one start, against the Astros, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings and get the nod here vs a Houston side expected to be without Jose Altuve . Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Astros Bielak. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 inter-league home games.Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Play on the Brewers to win |
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05-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies +107 | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Gallen is the superior pitcher in this matchup vs the Phillies Suarez, but the Phillies have the superior bullpen and a more explosive offense. SUAREZ is 12-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SUAREZ is 11-6 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - average hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phillies to win. |
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05-24-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +120 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
I cant see how the Rangers are road favs here. There is not that much of a difference in the pitching matchup according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Rangers Perez. Also the Pirates have the superior bullpen and deserve respect here as underdogs. PITTSBURGH is 23-12 against the money line vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS is 20-40 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games.Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central. MLB Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 92-76 L/5 seasons. Rangers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Pirates to win |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The Heat are playing their best hoops of the season in the play offs, and their peak performance of entire play offs was last time out a they shot a blistering 56.8 percent from the field (46 of 81) and 54.3 percent from 3-point range (19 of 35) and now have a strangle hold on this series.A resounding and over powering 128-102 victory now has me expecting a immediate regression and for a soul searching group of the Celtics to leave everything on the floor tonight. and get us the cover. MIAMI is 0-9 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 36-12 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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05-23-23 | Dream +2.5 v. Lynx | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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05-23-23 | Giants v. Twins OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray are average at best pitchers but have performed very well out of the gate. Based on early season performance charts the total seems right, but after delving in deeper, and highlighting these two hurlers career averages a regression looks to be inevitable. MINNESOTA is 50-30 OVER vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.7 runs per game scored over that 80 game sample size. Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 6-2 in Giants last 8 interleague road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. MLB team (MINNESOTA) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 30-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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05-23-23 | Mets v. Cubs +100 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Chicago has been struggling but with starter Drew Smyly (4-1, 2.86 ERA) on the hill they have a strong opportunity for success in this tilt vs the Mets. The lefty allowed a run on four hits and SO eight in six innings at Houston on Wednesday, but the Cubs choked on a 6-1 lead and eventually lost by a 7-6 count . The Cubbies southpaw, has allowed just three runs over 12 innings of his last two starts, and is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in four career starts against the New York Mets and get the nod vs a inconsistent Mets offense. SMYLY is 33-19 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in his career. (Team's Record) Note: Senga the Mets starter is 1-1 along with a 7.98 ERA, with opponents batting .323 on the road this season. Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter. NY METS are 1-6 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Mets are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.Mets are 20-41 in the last 61 meetings in Chicago. Play on the Chicago Cubs to win |
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05-23-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +130 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Veteran hurler Adam Wainwright no longer seems imposing and very much looks to be on the downside of his career, as his velocity has dropped significantly. With that said, my pitcher vs betting order power rankings also suggest we have an edge . Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.ST LOUIS is 11-21 against the money line in night games this season. Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-23-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 20-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
These offenses are explosive to say the least . When looking at the pitching matchup of Berrios and Bradley some powerful trends pop up. BERRIOS is 9-0 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. BERRIOS is 16-4 OVER (+11.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. It must also be noted Berrios owns divergent numbers at home (3.74 xFIP) and road (4.58 xFIP) during his career, and once again is vulnerable in the Rays backyard where they have 5.8 rpg this season. Meanwhile, Bradley the Rays starter has not pitched all that well at home this season where he has garnered a 5.40 ERA and against a Blue Jays side that averages 4.8 rpg on the road this season looks like cannon fodder for a strong offense. Over is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Bradley. Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play on the over |
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05-23-23 | Rangers -154 v. Pirates | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
The Rangers lost to the Pirates yesterday, but have proven resilient in the past as is evident by going 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter like Hill and matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note: The Rangers own a top-three offense against both righties and southpaws this season. Meanwhile, Pirates are 26-59 in their last 85 interleague games and are 17-39 in their last 56 during game 2 of a series. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter like Eovaldi who owns a 5-2 recored on the season including a solid .283 ERA and a 3-1 record and a stingy 1.83 ERA on the road. Everything points to a conclusive Rangers win in game 2 of this series. MLB team (TEXAS) - very good AL offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent NL starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20), with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games are 26-8 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas Rangers to win |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 224.5 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late, the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.
DENVER is 48-33 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over |
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05-22-23 | Dodgers +140 v. Braves | 8-6 | Win | 140 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
The Braves sill have some issues Im betting against rookie Gavin Stone, who will make his second MLB start after an impressive spring including Triple-A action. It must be noted that Gavin Stone garnered 24 swinging strikes while generating a season high 10 strikeouts for OKC. With a fastball that averaged 94.4 - t96.3 Braves hitters could end up taking time to figure this kid out. Meanwhile the LA DODGERS are 28-9 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher like Morton whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons .MORTON is 1-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.396. Advantage Dodgers on the money-line Dodgers are 60-24 in their last 84 during game 1 of a series. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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05-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays -107 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rays are 27-12 in their last 39 games vs. a right-handed starter like Jays starter Bassitt. Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Rays are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.Rays are 23-8 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series. TAMPA BAY is 15-2 against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter like the Rays Kelley.Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. American League East.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games on astroturf. TORONTO is 0-6 (against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games this season. Blue Jays are 18-37 in the last 55 meetings in Tampa Bay. MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - team with an excellent SLG (.450 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 30-9 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 17-42 L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Rays to win |
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05-22-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +120 | 4-6 | Win | 120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Ortiz has not looked great from a data standpoint early on this season, but this young Pirates starter has above average stuff, and must be respected here on a value line. Meanwhile, the Rangers Dunning is a capable mid rotation pitcher, but not at this level of favoritism, making the Pirates a viable underdog. DUNNING is 4-21 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-14 against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-13 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 inter-league games vs. a right-handed starter like Ortiz.Rangers are 3-9 in their last 12 inter-league road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 inter-league road games. MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games are 13-32 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Rangers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings. Pittsburgh Pirates to win |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Celtics felt the effect of their grueling 7 game series vs the Sixers in the previous play off round, and looked a little tired against a Miami Heat side that is currently playing their best hoops of the season. The talented and deep Celtics subsequently lost the first two games of this series at home, and are now in desperation mode making them a dangerous opponent for the Heat. Note: BOSTON is 12-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-18 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Celtics are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record NBA team (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 48-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.Play on Boston to cover |
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