Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -7 | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
Stanford lost to Oregon by a 35-14 count in their opener but the game was much closer than the final score might indicate as they Cards were only out-yarded by 496-413. Meanwhile, Colorado came out swinging in their opener and beat UCLA 48-42 in a game that exposed their defence for me leading into this game. With that said Ill back Stanford here , to take advantage of the Buffs porous D, and back HC David Shaw who is 9-0 SU in home openers, with the average margin of victory coming by 24 PPG to come out on top and get the cover. Stanford to cover |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7.5 | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
Indiana is off ending a 23-game series losing streak to Michigan with a 38-21 victory against Michigan. You can see the emotion in that game from the Hoosiers and the celebrations afterwards. But now their in a big time emotional letdown situation that makes them susceptible to being upset. Especially with Ohio State on board which also creates a look ahead situation. Hey I know Michigan state looked horrible last time out in a DD loss, but Im betting they bring out some magic here today and get us a cover in a place where they have won 14 of the L/15 meetings in this series SU. Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Play on Michigan State to cover |
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11-14-20 | Army +3 v. Tulane | 12-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Armys offense is churning out 5.5 yards per carry in their games against FBS opponents and today Im betting that attack will remain in top gear against a Tulane run unit that has been stringent , but has yet to face a dangerous triple option. Army is 39th in the country in rushing success and sixth in power success this season. On the flipside Black Knight run D, is one of the top units in the nation allowing just 3.4 ypc ranking sixth nationally in defensive rushing success. Tulane can move the chains on the ground, but this kind of smash mouth stopping unit can make opponents dizzy. Advantage Army. Army to cover |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina +28 v. Cincinnati | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
East Carolina QB Ahlers is on a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception run and put together his best career game against a Tulsa defense that must be considered stringent. With that said Im betting he is capable of orchestrating consistent drives and putting points up on the board today vs a staunch Cincinnati D. Considering the Bearcats have UCF on board we could easily see them in a look ahead situation and if in the lead by a big enough margin may take the pedal of metal and go into stay healthy mode , which opens up the door for a Pirates back door cover. Either way Im projecting that 4 TDs is just a tad high here and the value resides with taking points.Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Bearcats are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play on East Carolina to cover |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | 35-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Iowa after smashing Michigan State 49-7 last week take recency bias into this game as road chalk, something i really don't think they deserve. After such a big output by Ferentz's group I can see them down trending here vs a home dog in Minnesota that must not be underestimated. The Golden Gophers are 10-5 ATS L/15 as conference home dogs, including 7-1 ATS against opposition coming off a SUATS victory like Iowa. Golden Gophers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Tonight Im betting on a the Colts side that are allowing only 1.25 passing TDs per game to have a bounce back performance off a loss last time out vs a strong Baltimore side. Indianapolis also has the No. 2 ranked run defense and with Darius Leonard back in the lineup and at 100% this Colts team looks dangerous. Tonight is a classic top tier offence vs defence matchup and as usually the case the D will be key to a win. Note: The Colts have won 19 of the last 23 meetings and get my support to turn the trick again. Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Tennessee has failed to cash 12 of their L/15 as home favorites when coming off a win of 7 or more points. Meanwhile, the Colts are 10-2 ATS iL/12 in Thursday night tilts as visitors and are 9-1 ATS as underdog after scoring fewer than 14 points in their last trip to the gridiron. Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Tennessee.Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings.Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State -13.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
BYU smashed Boise State at home on the Blue carpet in embarrassing fashion last time out, their worst defeat since a 64-19 blowout by in state rivals Idaho back in 1996. Broncos, seemed to just lose their drive to compete, when starter Hank Bachmeier was ruled out pregame and backup Jack Sears left very early in the game. Everything imploded from there, and now after being throttled and the laughing stock of Mountain West for a week, Im betting HC Harsin will have his squad ready to rebound in a big way here this week, as his QB situation looks to be back to normal. Note: Boise State is 12-2 SU/ 11-3 ATS off a defeat where they allowed more than 36 points. Wyoming, which for a long time has seen a lack of a consistent aerial attack, had 10 passes of at least 15 yards last Thursday night in a loss to the Rams and Im betting will get torched here this evening.Colorado State has also been one of the worst teams in College Football in coverage and defensive finishing drives and should be ripe to be smashed here vs an angry redemption minded group of Broncos who will not take the pedal off the medal til the very end in this spot. I know this is the Broncos 3rd game in 13 days, but these young guys are well conditioned and Boise State has never lost a Thursday night game in the history of the program, and tonight Im betting it comes by more than this posted line. Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on Boise State to cover |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan -7.5 v. Northern Illinois | 40-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Central Michigan after an impressive season returns 70% of its offensive production from last campaign, and Im betting they take advantage of N.Illinois Huskies side off a loss to Buffalo in week one allowing 49 points and failing to cover. CMU also owned the second-best defense in the MAC last season and returned 77% of production to a unit that ranked 40th in the country in Success Rate and 24th against the run behind a front seven. Ranked No. 1 in the nation in Stuff Rate in 2019. I think some pundits were impressed by the Huskies ability to look cohesive enough to hang with Buffalo, but the program was confident knowing they had not lost to Buffalo in more than 28 years. Anyway my projections are telling me we have a mismatch here and that the favorite is highly likely to win by DDs. In last season’s meeting, the Chippewas crushed the Huskies, 48-10 and out-gained NIU, 615-251 and a rinse and repeat situation vs an inexperienced sled dogs is not out of the question. It must be noted that the Chips are 8-2 SU and 9-0-1 ATS on Wednesdays, and 5-1 ATS in their last six lined road openers. Play on Central Michigan to cover |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan UNDER 58.5 | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Toledo and Western Michigan own run heavy offenses that operate at a much slower tempo than the most of the FBS.Western Michigan didn’t allow a single pass over 15 yards, in their first game, meanwhile, the Toledo defense kept Bowling Green below a single point per trip inside the 40-yard line and recorded a grade of 15th in the country in tackling and coverage. With that said, Im expecting these two MAC contenders to take part in a hard fought physical battle that sees a less combined point score than the linesmakers number suggests .Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 home games. Play on the UNDER |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | 31-38 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
E.Michigan has a reputation for covering as underdogs and stayed within the numbers in a 27-23 loss, in game 1 despite of a less than average performance and also thanks in part in Kent State inability to kick a late FG for the cover. Now alot of pundits are on the Eagles again, maybe because of their reputation and because of Ball State loss to Miami O. A game that Ball State probably deserved to win when looking at the data. Anyway as far as todays game goes, it must be noted that E. Michigan ranks 124th overall in returning production this season and 116th on offense and . 112th on defense. I know Creighton is a fine coach but the rebuilding.restocking inexperienced Eagles, Im betting just dont have the guns to hang with a cranky Ball State side that has won 10 straight home openers. Play on Ball State to cover |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The RedHawks’ are off a come from behind win vs Ball State in their very physical opener, and could now find themselves in a letdown spot on the road road with their QB situation being a big question mark for the game as starter Brett Gabbert could still be in concussion protocol. . Tonight Im betting the Buffs to come out of this with a cover and victory behind the legs of their backfield super star Patterson who has 35 career rushing TDs and just short of 3000 yards. Note Miami allowed 195 yards and three touchdowns last week on the ground and should be cannon fodder in this spot as visitors. RedHawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.RedHawks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Tuesday games. Bulls are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games. Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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11-10-20 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 55.5 | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Bowling Greens QB Matt McDonald went 8-of-30 with two interceptions in his first game of the season with his team scoring just one FG in a 38-3 loss. Bowling Green made seven incursions past the Toledo 40-yard line and could only muster 3 points and Im betting things do not get much better this week vs Kent State side that ranks second overall in the Havoc ratings and has shown a propensity not to miss many tackles. There will be some winds tonight gusting up to 23 plus miles per hr and criss crossing the field which will make moving the chains difficult for both sides. Under is 14-3 in Golden Flashes last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a road favorite. Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 conference games. Under is 11-4 in Falcons last 15 games as an underdog.Under is 14-4 in Falcons last 18 games on fieldturf. Under is 12-4 in Falcons last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Play on the UNDER |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they run the ball recording a 50.1% clock consuming average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog. Play UNDER |
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11-08-20 | Saints +4.5 v. Bucs | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show | |
The Saints must not be discounted here as underdogs according to my projections. The Saints’ last five games have all been one-score tilts with the Saints notching the victory in their their last three trips to the gridiron, I know TB are now public darlings with Tom Brady at the helm of the offence, but their has been progressively more Chinks in the armour of the future HOF. Hes missing snap counts, and not seeing the field as consistently as he once did and his team also looked flat as big favs vs the giants last week . Father time remains undefeated and these type of inconsistent efforts will become more frequent Im betting. Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9. Buccaneers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.Buccaneers are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Buccaneers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. HC Sean Payton is 34-12-2 ATS as a dog versus .500 or greater foes, including 19-2-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Play on the Saints to cover |
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11-08-20 | Steelers v. Cowboys UNDER 42 | 24-19 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 50 m | Show | |
Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500. Play UNDER |
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11-08-20 | Steelers v. Cowboys +14 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show | |
The Steelers are off a huge win vs the Ravens last week and will be in an emotional letdown state and susceptible to a slow start here and mediocre performance vs a side that Im sure they are over looking . Teams like Pittsburgh off a victory as at least 3-point dogs where they forced 4+ turnovers are a long term bad bet going 121-151-7 ATS . NFL teams like Dallas on a 0-8 ATS run are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS at home with none of the these teams going 0-9 ATS through the first nine games of the season. Play on Dallas to cover |
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11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers -1 | 31-26 | Loss | -112 | 140 h 56 m | Show | |
Last week the Chargers fell apart late and gave up a DD lead to the Denver Broncos and lost on a last second FG . Meanwhile, the Raiders upset the Cleveland Browns on the road. The Raiders are 0-10 SUATS L/10 away versus opponents coming off a SU favorite loss. Add to that bad omen shows the Raiders are 2-5 SU/ATS away in division games when coming off a straight up away victory , including 0-3 SUATS when going against an opponent coming off a loss . Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Raiders are 0-14 ATS L/14 wen the total is at least five points higher than last game which they won. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LAS VEGAS) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 8-34 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (LAS VEGAS) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 5-33 L/37 seasons. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons -4 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris, who was promoted from defensive coordinator after Quinn was fired following an 0-5 start. With that said Im betting on a Confident Falcons offense roll here vs a Denver side that had to use up alot of energy last time out coming back from a DD deficit to notch a win on a last second FG vs the Chargers. Huge letdown spot for the Broncos vs Falcons offence that is clicking as is evident by notching 28 first down last week . Play on Atlanta |
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11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings -4 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
The Vikings have owned this series recently, garnering a 5-0 SUATS run in the last five meetings. With Lions QB Stafford probably not cleared to play this week, this selection seems even stronger from a projections standpoint. Vikings to cover |
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11-08-20 | Panthers +10.5 v. Chiefs | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
The Panthers enter this game off a loss and are now big road underdogs . Recency bias and the fact they will play a top tier side, has this line floating on value for advantage players. Considering QB Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS in his career as a road dog and the fact that road underdogs off a loss are 24-13 ATS this season for a 65% conversion rate we have a viable wagering opportunity. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS L/9 as a dog of more than a TD coming off a home game where they scored at least seven points less than expected. Play on Carolina Panthers to cover |
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11-08-20 | Giants +3 v. Washington Football Team | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played earlier this season, the Gmen squeaked out a win vs this Washington football team. Now in a game I have pegged as a pickem Washington is being made FG favs which does not matchup with my projections, thus giving us value on the underdog. I dont believe that Washington should be favs against any side other than the Jets. Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Meanwhile, Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Football Team are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. |
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11-07-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame +5.5 | 40-47 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show | |
Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence will miss this game due to COVID-19. With that said, Im not sold on freshman backup QB D.J. Uigalelei being able to notch a road win vs a one of the best looking Fighting Irish squads Ive seen in a long time. Add to that the Irish have won 22 straight home games and will not be easily intimidated has me going against Swinney and company . Note: Brian Kelly is 11-3-2 ATS career record as a home pup. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
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11-07-20 | Baylor +14 v. Iowa State | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
The Bears are not getting alot of respect from lines-makers because of the perception of their current mediocrity , because of the qss kicking they took vs TCU last time out but it must be noted that they are 8-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 6 points and must be respected against an inconsistent Iowa State program that is just 23-27 ATS L/50 as chalk. Hey I know Iowa State pounded a pathetic looking Kansas side last time out, but it must also be noted that the Cyclones are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win. Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bears are 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.Bears are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bears are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Baylor to cover |
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11-07-20 | UCLA v. Colorado +7 | 42-48 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
Buffs new HC Karl Dorrell will be primed take on a UCLA program he coached from 2003 to 2007 which is his old alma mater . With that said, Colorado looks to me to be a viable home dog vs a UCLA program that is 0-5-1 ATS lined season openers, as well as 1-5 ATS in lined road openers, while Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS in lined season openers. Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on Colorado to cover |
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11-07-20 | Pittsburgh +2.5 v. Florida State | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
I think the linesmakers got this line right when Pittsburgh U was installed as favorites when the line first emerged. Now with the big swing in the line we have value with a pup that is alot better than their record might indicate. The fact that the Panthers are 0-4 SU L/4 and got pounded by Notre Dame last time out had had huge implications on this line, but from a matchup perspective of teams with offenses that are not flowing it must be noted that Pittsburgh are allowing 2 Yards Per Rush while the Seminoles allow 5.8 per rush. Im betting on rested Pittsburgh finding running room, while the Seminoles wont which will result in the visitors covering with a outright SU win not beyond the perimeters of reality. Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
Ill call this investment option the magic of 3s. Georgia has won the last 3 head to head games in this series after Florida grabbed the previous 3 after Georgia took the 3 before that and Florida took the 3 before that. Its now time for the Gators to start a 3 game win streak of their own. Ok , guys enough of the numerology. From a projection standpoint getting points here with a up-trending Florida is a viable wagering opportunity that deserves an outlay of funds taking points. Note: College Football SEC teams like Florida that scored 38 or more points in its last game if they are seeking triple revenge-exact are 32-6 ATS in conference games and if they have suffered a least one loss on the season are 25-3 ATS in these situations. Play on Florida to cover |
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11-07-20 | Vanderbilt v. Mississippi State OVER 44 | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
True freshman quarterback Ken Seals is the real deal and uptrending after hitting on 67 percent of his passes so far. The kid had a big game against Ole Miss, passing 31-of-40 for 319 yards for an efficiency 155.9 and now against a much better defence will have the needed reps to get some more positive work in and bolster the confidence of the offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores Defense is ranked 108th in the country in total defense, giving up 499.0 yards per game. So Im betting they do some damage but also give up a boatload full of points. So despite of Miss States inconsistent offence Im betting they finally pound away today with non stop attack as the pent up demand for scores is unleashed. The above combination will result in a fairly high scoring affair as compared to the totals number being offered. Vanderbilt is 14-0 OVER L/14 as a dog coming off a game as a dog where they lost by at least 14 points with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored with none of the games in this subset failing to eclipse this totals number. Play OVER |
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11-07-20 | Houston +14 v. Cincinnati | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
Cincinnati enters this game off a big revenger vs Memphis last week where they left everything on the field in DD win. Now in a letdown situation Im betting Houston behind a offense that can do some damage look to be viable upset specialists or backdoor artists. Note : Houston HC Holgerson is 13-3 ATS record as a double- digit underdog, including 8-1 ATS if they own a .record of .500 or better . Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.. Play on Houston to cover |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a classic hangover spot for me to center my attention on this week. Michigan State upset Michigan last week and Im betting they will be a in a letdown spot vs a very hungry Iowa side that is playing at home in desperation mode after two straight losses to start their season. Note: Iowa is 6-0 ATS coming off consecutive losses and get my support here today.Spartans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Iowa. Play on Iowa to cover |
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11-07-20 | South Florida v. Memphis -17.5 | 33-34 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Last week Memphis took a beating from a revenge minded Cincinnati and now will be out to get some revenge here vs a USF side, that is 0-5 SU and ITS vs FBS sides this season(outstated in all 5 games). Memphis is 15-0 ATS /SU L/15 as a 12+ point favorite coming off a loss with the average margin of victory coming by 31.2 ppg. Play on Memphis to cover |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -160 v. Indiana | 21-38 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
The Indiana Hoosiers have lost 24 straight to the Wolverines and Im betting on the streak to continue here this Saturday. No way Michigan comes in here asleep at the proverbial wheel after being upset last week by Michigan State . Lay the lumber on the ML with a motivated side that has owned this series. Play on Michigan to win. SU |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 46 m | Show | |
The Broncos are 5-0 vs. BYU in games played in Boise. The Broncos have won 4 straight over teams ranked in the AP Top 10 and despite of how well BYU is playing Im backing the Broncos to bring us home the cash. Boise State is 4-0 L/4 as dogs the last 3 years, and 3-0 SU/ATS as home underdogs of less than 3 points. Harsin is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached. CFB Home underdogs (BOISE ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 67-22 ATS L/28 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on Boise state to cover |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State OVER 61.5 | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
BYU QB Wilson has completed 74.6 percent of his passes this season including 2,152 passing yards and 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Meanwhile, Boise State rank top-10 nationally in Finishing Drives, red zone efficiency, completion percentage and interception rate. Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) during its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). Everything points to a high scoring back and forth affair on the speedy Blue turf. Play OVER |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 48 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
Both these teams have started slowly offensively in their games this season, and Im betting that trend continues here tonight which will contribute to a lower scoring game the linesmakers number suggests. Both these sides have shown decent offense but its the defenses that have shined..Both defenses rank top-10 in Finishing Drives. San Jose State has allowed 6 and 21 points respectively in their two tilts and San Diego State has allowed just 6 and 7 points respectively. The Aztecs defense is ranked No.1 in the country in defending expected points through the air and rank first in the nation in defensive Havoc and third-place rank in opponent passing Success Rate. San Diego State defense ranks top-10 in Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and PFF coverage grade. San Jose State has allowed their opposition to score a minuscule 1.8 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. From a offensive perspective and considering SD State has called 65% rushing plays with a pace of 78th in FBS it wont be surprised if they use a run heavy option here tonight. On the flip side with San Jose State Im betting their success rate moving the ball will be limited via the ground game as they rank second-to-last in Rushing Success Rate and Explosiveness and through the air they take on hard core secondary. So the above combination has me leaning heavily on a low scoring tilt. Under is 36-17-1 in Aztecs last 54 home games.Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play UNDER |
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11-06-20 | Miami-FL v. NC State +11 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 59 h 8 m | Show | |
The Wolfpack’s has a 3-game winning streak come to an end vs North Carolina, 48-21 last time out. The game was closer than the final score might indicate, and NC State looked viable overall. Meanwhile, Miami is off to a 5-1 start with their only defeat coming to Clemson). Tonight though the Canes might easily be in a look ahead situation as VTech is on deck next for them. Thats not a solid situation for Miami bettors as NC State is well rested after a week off . Note: The Wolfpack are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/24 opportunities when playing with rest vs an ACC opposition. Miami Fl is just 1-6 ATS as conference road favs of 3 plus points, as well as 3-15 ATS with rest versus a league opposition. Play on NC State to cover |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming v. Colorado State OVER 52.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
The Rams defense looked very vulnerable last week , especially against the pass. Fresno State QB Jake Haener carved up the Colorado State secondary, throwing for 311 yards and three scores while averaging 14.1 yards per completion and Im betting they get torched again this week by a Wyoming offense that is off scoring 25 points in the 2nd half of their last game and up-trending with flow. Meanwhile, Colorado State after starting slowly in their first game in the season vs Fresno State will be primed to bounce back here vs a D that maybe a little over rated considering the accolades they are getting for stuffing a revamped Hawaii offense that was playing the 2nd end of back to back road trips. The kids from Hawaii looked tired. Tonight with the weather looking perfect for fall football , no rain or snow expected , light winds and comfortable temps this game looks set to eclipse the total. Play OVER |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
The 49ers may not inspire bettors in their current inconsistent form and with the amount of injuries thy have recently sustained but they are 12-3 SU L/15 at home against the NFC North, including 7-1 SUATS when they own a .500-record or better. Meanwhile the Packers Aaron Rodgers is just 2-13 SU l/15 in away in non-division games during the month of November. Tonight I expect HC Shanahan to work around his teams abscences with a run heavy attack behind capable backups JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon vs a Green Bay side that just gave up 163 yards and three touchdowns to the Vikings . To me this line move favoring the Packers is just to exaggerated which gives us value with the home underdog. Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 9. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco. . Play on 49ers to cover |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada OVER 56 | 9-34 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
The Aggies are off to a 0-2 start and cant afford to go 0-3 and really have to open things up in liberal fashion and cant afford to just play a conservative game. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack behind a offense that averages, 37 ppg, and ranking 13th in FBS in total offense, averaging 496 yards per game for 7.47 yards per play should be able to eclipse that mark vs a Aggies D, that has allowed an average of 40 points per game thus far while ranking 98th in FBS in total defense, allowing 510 yards per game, and 6.94 yards per play. My projections estimate the Wolfpack should eclipse the 45 point plateau while Utah State fires back in wide open fashion, as they play for their proverbial play off lives . |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -16.5 | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
The Aggies are off to a 0-2 start and look hapless in a lot of ways. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack behind a offense that averages, 37 ppg, and ranking 13th in FBS in total offense, averaging 496 yards per game for 7.47 yards per play should be able to eclipse that mark vs a Aggies D, that has allowed an average of 40 points per game thus far while ranking 98th in FBS in total defense, allowing 510 yards per game, and 6.94 yards per play. My projections estimate the Wolfpack should eclipse the 45 point plateau and easily run away with this vs a side that will not have the guns to get a back door cover . Play on Nevada to cover |
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11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My projections for both sides has me seeing them as equal competitors. With the line above the key 3 point reference point for this type of matchup Im recommending we take the points here. It must be noted that EMU has cashed three straight times in lined season openers, while Kent State has failed miserably out of the gate recording an ugly 0-8 SU record under the same perimeters . In last years meeting Eastern Michigan blitzed the Flashes D for 509 total yards despite of losing and being upset. With that said, and revenge on board I look for EMU to do more damage to the Flashes D, which translates into another rinse and repeat situation looks to be a viable option and cover. Creighton is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of E MICHIGAN. Play on EMU to cover |
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11-04-20 | Ohio -120 v. Central Michigan | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Like Ol’ Man River, Ohio head coach Frank Solich just keeps rolling along, now in his 16th season in Athens and boasting 113 victories and three consecutive bowl wins. And while many feel they are the team to beat in the MAC this season, we sound the alarm that seniors started 68.2% of their game last season – the largest number in the nation. Ouch. Across the field, CMU head coach Jim McElwain brings a ton of credibility to the program and he proved it last season by taking a 1-win team that he inherited to an 8-win campaign in his debut in Mt. Pleasant. Remember though, the Chippewas failed to beat an FBS team that finished the season with a winning record last year, with their 7 FBS victories coming against foes who were 27-58 collectively. The Chips were also tied for the worst team in the nation in fumbles lost, and were the 3rd worst unit the country in most penalties. A trip to the ATS archives doesn’t solve the riddle either, as Ohio has lost and failed to cover in four straight series meetings, while Central Michigan stands 0-11 SU in lined season openers. In a showdown of two potentially strong teams with many lingering questions, we’ll lean to Solich and company to snap their ugly series losing streak against the Chippewas. |
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11-04-20 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois +14 | 49-30 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I know this Buffalo program has come along way and deserves respect , but this line is just a bit to bloated considering N.Illinois pedigree. You have to remember despite of a below .500 season last season the Huskies still upset the likes of Ohio, Toledo and Western Michigan. I do know that N.Illinois is restocking but, their current young group must not be disqualified as capable opponents. N ILLINOIS is 63-40 ATS as an underdog since 1992. N ILLINOIS is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992. Play on N.Illinois to cover |
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11-04-20 | Eastern Michigan +5 v. Kent State | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections for both sides has me seeing them as equal competitors. With the line above the key 3 point reference point for this type of matchup Im recommending we take the points here. It must be noted that EMU has cashed three straight times in lined season openers, while Kent State has failed miserably out of the gate recording an ugly 0-8 SU record under the same perimeters . In last years meeting Eastern Michigan blitzed the Flashes D for 509 total yards despite of losing and being upset. With that said, and revenge on board I look for EMU to do more damage to the Flashes D, which translates into another rinse and repeat situation looks to be a viable option and cover. Creighton is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of E MICHIGAN. Play on EMU to cover |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 45 | 25-23 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more are 19-55-1 to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER
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11-01-20 | Cowboys +11 v. Eagles | 9-23 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
Finally the Cowboys decided to bench Dalton in favor of the young Ben DeNucci . Wow it is a little surprising how the Boyz have fallen from grace and are now being touted as DD dogs . I know they looked horrible against Washington last week but Im betting their better than that.Im not trying to sell hopeimism but there is now some hope and a fresh start for a group that has not played well since Dak Prescott went down. With that said, Im betting the coaching staff of the Cowboys will orchestrate a run heavy attack and move the chains with short passes more consistently vs a banged up Eagles D that struggles vs the run as was evident giving up 160 yards on the ground to the Gmen last week . It must be noted that the Eagles have not won by more than five points, so this is a huge disparity considering Philly has not covered a single game as favs this season as is evident by their 0-4 ATS mark while failing by an average of more than 10 ppg. The Cowboys are 8-0-1 ATS L/9 on the road coming off a away game where they allowed 24 or more points. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The Eagles are 0-18 ATS L/18 coming off a home game where they allowed at least 130 rushing yards . NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 122-66 ATS L/37 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
I know Denver looked bad last time out vs Kansas City but this team according to my power rankings is greatly under rated and should not be underdogs vs a over rated Chargers side off a win vs lowly Jacksonville and getting to much recency bias respect. What was interesting in the lopsided loss to KC was that they out yarded the Chiefs by 125 yards. Note: . Teams that lost by 14 points or more points last game while outgaining their opposition by 99 yards or more are bankroll expanding 43-18-1 ATS. Today Im betting on the Broncos to pound the ball the ground and to make the Chargers work hard here in the high altitude of the Mile High City and to get us the cover. LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS L/6 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.DENVER is 12-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rivals. Fangio is 9-2 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of DENVER. Denver is 9-1-1 ATS at home as an underdog vs below .500 sides and have won 14 of the 18 meetings in this series straight up. Play on Denver to cover |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -1 | 16-6 | Loss | -128 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
Cleveland QB Mayfield completed 20 straight passes and finished 22-of-28 for 5 TDs last week in a Cleveland win and is finally coming into his own in the NFL. Im betting on his arm to be the difference mkaer here this week vs a Vegas side that is allowing an average of 33 ppg and has lost 3 of their L/4 games and are off a dd beatdown last week at the hands of the Buccaneers. LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.LAS VEGAS is 6-18 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents. Gruden is 1-9 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992. NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.4 ppg. Play on Cleveland Browns to cover |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-01-20 | Steelers +4.5 v. Ravens | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
This Steelers team is for real, and play the type of smash mouth football that the old steel curtain group would be proud of. I know Baltimore are and have been public darlings for a while because of their ability to pound opponents senseless and deliver consistent ATS victories, but according to my projections this game is closer to a pickem and screams value with the underdog in what could easily be a last second FG win for one of these sides. PITTSBURGH is 10-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Steelers are 14-4 SU and 16-1-1 ATS L/18 as underdogs of less than 7 points against opposition with an above .500 record. The Ravens are 0-11-2 ATS L/13 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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11-01-20 | Jets +20 v. Chiefs | 9-35 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
Two teams at the opposite end of the performance spectrum. huge line divergence here and slight value make this a take. KANSAS CITY is 9-22 ATS L/31 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. The Chiefs are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they gained less than 300 total yards and lost the last 3 SU. NFL Road teams (NY JETS) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 28-6 ATS L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals +7 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
When these teams played a couple of weeks ago the Colts win 31-27 and Im betting on another closer game here. The Bengals are 10-0 ATS L/10 off a game as a dog that went over the total by at least seven points. TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS L/16 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 ATS L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on The Bengals to cover |
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10-31-20 | San Diego State -8 v. Utah State | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Utah State is not as explosive as they have been in past seasons, and were smashed by Bosie State 42-13 in their first game of the year. Now against another top tier side, this Aggies group that no longer has Packers first round pick QB Jordan Love in the lineup are a side that is in in big torouble. I know Rocky Long is no long er the HC for San Diego State but now with Brady Hoke the Aztecs are ready to blaze a new more relentless course behind a usually tough D, and now a more stable offence. Note: San Diego State is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS L/8 as 6 or more road chalk. |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State +12.5 | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | Mississippi State +31 v. Alabama | 0-41 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | New Mexico v. San Jose State -13.5 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech +20.5 | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a game where Im betting that Notre Dame after a big blow out victory vs Pittsburgh last time out will come out here with a more muted effort against a downtrodden Georgia Tech crew on the road . This is a situation where the Irish will want to stay healthy and get out of here not having to exert to much energy with bigger fish on the horizon and very little chance of moving up in the CF polls.Collins is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in all games he has coached since 1992 and GTech is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. Georgia Tech to cover |
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10-31-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers +11.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
After last weeks monumental OT win vs Penn State will have the Indiana Hoosiers in a natural letdown state here on the road vs a under rated Rutgers side that is also off a upset last week vs Michigan State. CFB road team (INDIANA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a double digit road win are just 25-60 ATS L/28 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (INDIANA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more against opponent off a road win are just 10-57 SU in their following game since 1992. Play on Rutgers to cover |
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10-31-20 | UAB v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Skip Holtz’s LATEch are in trouble and in jeopardy of having their 6 game bowl streak come to an end . But Holtz has done well in the underdog role in the past going 52-27-1 ATS career mark as an underdog, including 12-3 ATS as a pup with revenge in a conference tilts.UAB is 1-4 ATS vs FBS teams this season and cannot be trusted to cover this big a spread on the road. LOUISIANA TECH is 18-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite which was the case last week in a 1 point loss to under rated UTSA. Louisiana Tech to cover |
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10-31-20 | Troy v. Arkansas State -130 | 38-10 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
Anderson is 32-19 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of ARKANSAS ST. CFB home team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) - excellent passing team (8.3 or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 34-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play on Arkansas State to win |
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10-31-20 | Wake Forest -11.5 v. Syracuse | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
Syracuse is a team that looks completely asleep at the wheel, and today Im betting they get run over by what can sometimes be an explosive Wake Forest offense and what has now suddenly become a dominant D in the red zone as was evident vs Virginia Tech last time out in a win. The Demon Deacons have won 3 straight games, and are rolling, and Im betting they tee off today against a banged up Orange side that is playing with little confidence. WAKE FOREST is 7-0 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. CFB road team (WAKE FOREST) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) are 42-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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10-31-20 | Memphis v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
Cincinnati proved to me how potent they are when they marched into SMU and smashed them by a 42-13 count. Now here in revenge mode vs Memphis Im betting on another conclusive victory. Last year the Bearcats lost to the Tigers twice so you can bet their motivational juices are oozing everywhere. With Memphis having to deal with star WR Damonte Coxie deciding to opt out of this season, their definitely going to have problems with big plays and their overall flow against one of the nations top defenses. Note: Memphis is 0-7 ATS on the road vs ,750 or better opposition. CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS off a road blowout win by 28 points or more. Fickell is 12-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play in all games.
CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati |
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10-31-20 | Purdue v. Illinois +8 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
I think this line is bloated and favors the underdog at home. I know Purdue came from behind last week to upset Iowa, but now Im betting their in a letdown mode, and going on the road here is not easy especailly against a side Im sure theyre not hyped up to play against. Note: Purdue is 1-5 ATS when favored by more than 3 points on the road, Meanwhile, Illinois was a solid 5-2 ATS at home last season, including 3-0 ATS as dogs and at least from my perspective deserve respect here as underdogs. |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +3.5 | 51-0 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
The coastal Carolina Chanticleers , are rockin and rollin with a 5-0 record. .So its easy for bettors to look at this as a easy short chalk road opportunity against a Georgia State side that is very competitive . behind a viable ground game that has gained 5.0 Yards Per Rush while the D has allowed 3.2 YPR on defense. Note: The Panthers are 6-1 ATS L/7 at home. GEORGIA ST is 21-9 ATS in October games. CFB home team (GEORGIA ST) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on Georgia State to cover |
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10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia OVER 45.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
Kansas State is 11-0-1 OVER as a dog coming off a home game where they covered by 14+ points. |
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10-31-20 | UTSA +4.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -1 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Wyoming is off a 37-34 overtime loss at Nevada in its season opener and will be ready for a huge bounce back effort here vs Hawaii in their home opener. Meanwhile, Hawaii opened up on the mainland with a lopsided win vs Fresno State. However , it must be noted that this Hawaii football program is just 1-13 SU in their last fourteen tilts on the road when coming off an away game and have lost their L/5 visits to Wyoming going back to at 1east 1992. With Wyoming showing strong precedent here winning 22 of their L/26 home openers and after watching portions of their heart breaking loss vs the Wolves last week, Im betting their more than capable of notching a victory in this spot. Wyoming to cover |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa UNDER 62 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Tulsa is proving that their defense is of the top notch variety at all three levels and Im betting the visiting Pirates have a hard time putting points on the board here today. The Canes have already held Oklahoma State and USF to 13 and 16 points respectively. Tulsa is 83rd in FBS with 65.7 ppg and run their offense at a lower than average pace. What Im betting on here is for Tulsa to grind away on E.Carolina to roll to a victory, but in more conservative fashion than the lines-makers expect as compared to what my projections say is a bloated total. Play UNDER |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -122 v. Fresno State | 17-38 | Loss | -122 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
Watching Fresno State get shredded defensively (554 yards) and struggle to move the ball, vs Hawaii in a lopsided loss, has me fading what looks to be a Fresno State program that is having problems adjusting to new HC Kalen DeBoer . Meanwhile, Colorado States new up tempo no huddle offense, and up-trending defense under former Boston College HC Addazio has me taking the Rams here even though this is their opening game. Note: During this current covid season, teams playing their first game against opposition playing 2 or more games are a bankroll expanding 25-9 for a 74% conversion rate for betting backers. Play on Colorado State to win |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 51 | 25-17 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at 23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina Panthers ranking 21st. My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show | |
A first place team South Alabama comes into this game as underdogs to the Sun Belts cellar dweller Georgia Southern.That is a interesting dichotomy, but from a [power rankings perspective and from a head to head matchup analytical view the home team deserves to be favorites. South Alabama is just 2-21 SU L/23 as visitors and have failed to cover 15 times , and are 1-15 SU and 4-12 ATS in conference tilts. Georgia Southern is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in their L/6 meetings , including 3-0 SU/ATS at home . GSU is 7-0 SU L/7 and 6-1 ATS as home chalk. S ALABAMA is 0-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992. CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GA SOUTHERN) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 25-4 ATS :L/28 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on Georgia Southern to cover |
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10-27-20 | Rays +129 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rays Im betting will extend their season one more game in Game 6 with left-hander Blake Snell on the mound. Snell had a top tier effort in the Rays' 6-4 victory in Game 2 and gets my support again vs Dodgers starter rookie rookie right-hander Gonsilin who has made three appearances so far this postseason (two starts), giving up eight runs in 7 2/3 innings. Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLWLW irrespective of site order (Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2020 MLB Semifinals: Teams like the Dodgers are 1-7 in Game 6s. Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Rays are 18-4 in their last 22 games following a loss. Dodgers are 3-7 in their last 10 World Series games. Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on the Rays to win Game 6 |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show | |
The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the Bears offense without Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams run defense but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams combined for an average 22.5 points per game total the last two meetings. Bears are 0-13-1 UNDER L/14 off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 55 | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games. The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite. Play UNDER |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Glasnow was smacked around for six runs on three hits over 4 1/3 innings, walking six and striking out eight in game 1 of this series, and Im betting the Dodgers tee off on him again today. Meanwhile, Kershaw will go to the hill again . He looked strong for a win in game 1 but when he came out of the Rays bats started to get fluid . The final score of that tilt was 8-3 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat higher scoring game than the consistent totals outputs from the lines-makers suggest. There has been no adjustment in this series and as a result we get another edge for a over wager cashing. Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play OVER |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
Im going to label this game in Tom We Trust. Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin in his career versus undefeated opponents, owns a 5-1 SUATS record when both teams are undefeated. TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 . PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 22-2 L/37 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 29-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Steelers to cover |
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10-25-20 | Steelers v. Titans OVER 50.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while the Steelers have averaged 31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit 13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13). Play OVER |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
New Orleans has not looked very cohesive this season and are barely above .500 with a 3-2 record on the season with just the one win by more than six points and nothing has come easy for them , and today laying this many points is not a favorable situation again. I know Carolina may not inspire bettors, but it must be noted that Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater, is 15-2 ATS as a underdog in his career. Teams like the Saints which are more than TD favorites which have a record of less than .625 of are 302-398-14 ATS . Long term divisional road dogs in the NFL are profitable bets - Divisional Road Dogs: 544-479-33 ATS. .New Orleans are 28-56 ATS since 1980 at home as favorite. Play on Carolina Panthers to cover |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys +1 v. Washington Football Team | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
I know Dalton is not getting alot of respect from linesmakers despite of his vast NFL starting experience. /Yes, he looked horrible last time out in a 38-10 loss to the Cards. But in week 6 when he took over for Prescott he got the W for the Cowboys, and and is more than capable of a bounce back effort here today vs a suspect Washington football team. The NFC East is a bad division and at 2-4 the Cowboys are not out of a play off appearance, so their alot more motivated than the pundits might think. there is alot of talent in this Dallas lineup and a feel confident backing them here today as they look to get some long lost respect and dignity back. Note: Washington is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 coming off a road loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards which was the case last week. Dallas to cover |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 44.5 | 3-25 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
10-24-20 | Texas State v. BYU UNDER 60.5 | 14-52 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 17 m | Show | |
The Cougars are averaging 3.2 sacks per game, which is 15th-best in the nation. They have 16 sacks through five games. Im betting Texas States offense ill have issues flowing in this tilt. BYU’s defense is allowing 14 points per game. Meanwhile, after annihilating Houston on the road last week Im betting this will be a game where alot of starters get rested as they game progresses, as bigger fish are on deck. This Im betting results in a more muted effort offensively from the Cougars in a game that they will use like a week off. TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the board. TEXAS ST is 13-3 UNDER L/16 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 50.2 ppg. TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.9 ppg going on the board. BYU is 0-13-1 UNDER as a favorite coming off a game where they covered by at least five points with the highest combined score total coming in at 59 points and. the overall combined average score clicking in at 41.9 ppg.BYU is 7-0 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The Cincinnati D is tops in the AAC, ranking first in both total and scoring defense while giving up just 12.3 points per game and are well rested as they have been off since Oct 3. Thats extremely important vs a explosive SMU offense that ranks among the top attacks in the nation. However, that offense Im betting will not be as efficient here this week against this type of D, and with receiver Reggie Roberson and starting running back TJ McDaniel out will find themselves less fluid. These teams have played very closely contested games in recent meetings, and Im sure another one is at hand, but my projections make the Bearcats the superior tea, and with the wrong side favored will take a stance with the points. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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10-24-20 | Louisiana Tech -2 v. UTSA | 26-27 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 26 m | Show | |
UTSA has played valiantly of late, however, putting in so much hard work and still losing, three straight they are now exhausted. Army was last weeks opponent and before that BYU and UAB on the road. Those were all physical grinding affairs, and now against a hungry LATech squad, off an embarrassing 35-17 home loss to Marshall last time out, Im betting they wont have the needed energy to get across the finish line again. Louisiana Tech is 12-0 ATS/SU as a favorite coming off a home loss where they scored less than 35 points. UTSA is 0-6 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Play on LA Tech |
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10-24-20 | Utah State v. Boise State -16.5 | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show | |
Broncos have owned this series against the Aggies clicking on 16 of the L/17 meetings straight up and have been an ATM for their betting backers cashing on 13 of those games against the spread. Last season when these teams met at Utah State the Broncos teed of on the Aggies winning by a 56-21 count and that was with Utah States star QB in the lineup (Jordan Love). I know the Aggies will be out looking for revenge, but Im betting Bryan Harsins group just don't have same quality guns as the Broncos needed to get the job done. Key: .QB Bachmeier started eight games as a true freshman last season. He recorded a 7-1 record as a starter and threw for 1,879 yards and 9 touchdowns while completing 63 percent of his passes and today Im betting he continues his ascension. Play on Boise State to cover |
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10-24-20 | South Carolina v. LSU -5.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 37 h 2 m | Show | |
Missouri according to my power rankings is being over rated here today. Yes, they beat Auburn last time out, but despite of getting the W, they were out yarded by a 481-297 count, which tells a truer tale of their abilities . Here today vs a very hungry defending national champion Im betting their vulnerabilities will be exposed. Missouri is 0-6-1 L/7 in this series vs LSU. LSU is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons. Defending National Champions are 50-9-1 SU in games with a below .500 record, including 9-1 ATS in conference games. CFB home team vs. the money line (LSU) - struggling defensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 26-7 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.8 ppg. CFB home team vs. the money line (LSU) - excellent passing team (8.3 or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 31-8 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.8 ppg. Play on LSU to cover |
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10-24-20 | Baylor +9.5 v. Texas | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
Texas has fallen in my power rankings thanks in part to a defense that has allowed 456 yards and 36 points per game. Meanwhile, Baylor is up-trending and took out Texas, 24-10, in Waco last season and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Austin. I know the Longhonrs have revenge on board, but the way they are playing nothing will come easy for them , thus getting points here makes for a viable wager. TEXAS is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 season. Herman is 0-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of TEXAS. BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.( Failed to cover their last time out on Oct 3 to W.Virginia is. a 27-21 loss) CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the second half of the season are 27-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. CFB college football home favorite like Texas with a week of rest in Game Five if they allow 30 or more points per game are just 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons. Play on Baylor to cover |
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10-24-20 | Houston v. Navy +15 | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
Navy at 3-0 in AAC play is huge underdog here at home. I know Navy does not look as cohesive as past carnations of this program, but Houston is over rated as well, as was evident when BYU ran over them as visitors , and that fact the team has given up as many yards as they have accumulated. With that said, and knowing how Military colleges dont take to being embarrassed or disrespected by the linesmakers, Ill make a stand here with the Middies and the points. NAVY is 9-2 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 7-0 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Navy is 11-0 ATS L/12 as a dog facing a team allowing at least 29 points per game. The only 3 losses in this set came by 3 points exact. Play on Navy to cover |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +10.5 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
After a muted 13-point effort against Clemson to open the season, the Demon Deacon offense has looked explosive . Wake Forests QB Hartman, has been in top form in his last three tilts, connecting through the air for an average of 9.0 yards per attempt with no interceptions. Thats the kind of team and QB you want to back as underdogs getting points. My own projections make this to many points for Vtech to be favored by, and Im buying in to the Deacons ability to cover vs a side that has failed to cover its last 4 in back to back road games. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida OVER 70 | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
The Knights behind the big arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who became the first UCF signal-caller to throw for over 500 yards last Saturday against Memphis Im betting will once again be ready to explode on offense vs a suspect Tulane D. Meanwhile, Tulane also has a top tier dual threat QB in Michael Pratt who Im betting will also tee off on a UCF D that ranks 74th in total defense out of 77 FBS teams. Play on the OVER |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida UNDER 50.5 | 42-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Tulsa’s showing us a strong defensive structure this season . Ranking third in Havoc ratings lead by Linebacker Zaven Collins who has owned the opposition with three sacks, three hurries and a top-10 tackles for loss On the flipside, the Canes offense has been below average ranking in the bottom 10 in Success Rate with a Finishing Drives rank of 63rd. .Meanwhile, USF while trying to move at an accelerated pace offense , still have huge problems as their Offensive Finishing Drives rank a lowly 75th. Thats not a good omen for Bulls fluidity against a Tulsa defense that allows just three points per trip in past the 40-yard line. All in all my projections estimate a total closer to 46 whihc gives us great value on a under wager. |
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10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are really hyped for this national TV game in a key divisional confrontation. If they win they will be 2nd in the division so their motivation factors are clear. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is over rated and their one win vs a banged up 49ers team was not as impressive as one might think or the media might have us believe as is evident by their favorite status in 3 games this season in which they did not win. The Giants are 19-0 ATS L/19 vs a divisional opponent that has at least one victory on the season and has forced fewer than 1.2 turnovers and has allowed 70-plus rushing yards per game season-to-date with no loss coming by more than 3 points. NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are 10-0 ATS as road dogs when coming off a division home victory. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against for a 83% conversion rate. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -12.5 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show | |
Arkansas State has an explosive offense but the App State Mountaineers defense is showing themselves to be as tough as nails, as is evident by holding their opposition to 19.3 PPG and in their only loss allowed another top tier explosive offense to just 17 points on the road vs Marshall. Tonight I expect the Mountaineers D, to own the line of scrimmage vs the Wolves and for the Mounties offense to tee off on a Arkansas St D, that is allowing 39.8 ppg. APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS /SU versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 season with average margin of victory coming by an average of just under 22 ppg. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored 39-82 ATS L/28 years for a 68% go against conversion rate. Play on App State to cover |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -147 | 6-4 | Loss | -147 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Ok the Rays have had a nice run, but now against a superior Dodgers side, that can hit their top tier hurlers they are in trouble. Snell according to my projections does not matchup well vs the this Dodgers lineup. Dodgers are 45-17 in their last 62 games following a win.Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. American League East. Dodgers are 20-6 in their last 26 interleague games. Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 World Series games. Play on the LA Dodgers to win |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
According to my projections this total should be closer to 9. Thus giving us value on an over wager. Dodgers starter Gonsolin has made two shaky outings in the postseason so far, giving up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA and Im betting the Rays tee off on his here. Meanwhile, the Dodgers explosive bats Im betting will also tee off on Snell, Over is 6-2-3 in Dodgers last 11 interleague games as a favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. American League East. Over is 10-1 in Rays last 11 vs. National League West. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play OVER |
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10-20-20 | Rays +152 v. Dodgers | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
The value here on the Rays in my opinion is tremendous, as they may not be the superior overall side in this matchup, but do have the better bullpen and defense which in a play off series is of ultimate importance. Also today against southpaw Kershaw the Rays have an edge as they have smashed left-handed pitching (.343 wOBA). With that said, the value resides with the Rays here in game 1. Play on TB Rays to win |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Only 31 teams have failed to cover a single point spread through the first five weeks of a season. But here we are with Dallas on the edge of such a precipice. The good news for Boyz betting betting backers are that teams are 22-9 (ATS) under those perimeters, with underdogs like Dallas holding an even bigger edge cashing 19 of 25 times for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that sides with sub par ATS records at 30% or less going against the teams with winning ATS records are 174-110-11 in Weeks 6-17 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. I know top gun QB Dak Prescott is out for the Boyz, but his backup Andy Dolton has had top tier success in this league, and has a boatload full of experience and respected by his teammates making him a viable pivot to back in this spot vs a up-trending but still not top tier Arizona side, that is 0-7 ATS in Monday night affairs sporting a .500 or better record. Dallas is 5-1 ATS as a home dog dating back 40 seasons, and tonight Im betting they add to those positive numbers. DALLAS is 12-2 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992 Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills UNDER 57.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show | |
Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs. BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 7 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl Champs suffered their first loss last time out against Las Vegas, and with that said it must be noted, that when that has happened in the past these elite teams are just 12-25 straight up in their following game . Thats not a good omen for the Chiefs vs a hungry Buffalo team with something to prove. Ill be taking points here all the way against Mahomes in company. |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show | |
Jimmy G had a crap game last week connecting on just 7 of 17 passes. However, he must not be counted out in his ability to bounce back even on a bum ankle. You have to remember Garoppolo is 25-8 in his career and 7-3 SU/8-2 ATS as a dog and 1-0 SU/ATS when hosting as a pup. Add to that the embarrassment associated with being benched , and you have a motivated talented competitor to deal with. Also after three straight home losses, the 49ers as a team will be ready to avert another embarrassing effort. There is not such thing as due, but Im betting on the Jimmy G train steaming into the proverbial station tonight and for the Niners to give the Rams more of a battle than the lines-makers expect them to. Play in San Francisco to cover |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 52 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show | |
Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45 ppg going on the board. NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -1 | 23-16 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 9 m | Show | |
My projections make the Panthers -3 favs at home this week, thus giving us value on the line. Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival are 2-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 29-63 ATS L/37 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate. Play on the Carolina Panthers to win |
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