Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Mets v. A's +1.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I like the A's to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the solid ATS cover on the runline option. The Mets had their five-game win streak come to an end in a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee in their most recent action, while Oakland is coming off a 9-5 loss at Seattle last night. The Mets see Chiss Bassitt toe the slab, and he's 14-8 with a 3.32 ERA, while Cole Irvin, who is 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA, counters for the the A's. Bassitt has been great f late, but I think he'll struggle against his former team here. The A's have still won three of their last five. Irvin has a chance, with a victory today, to match his career-best for wins in a season, so he has plenty of motivation here today a well. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbin the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY) Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -130 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
10* TITANS (MNF GOY) Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Giants had won four of five before the Dodgers came to town. They now play with double revenge after dropping the first two games of this series by score of 5-0 and 7-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive battle here though in the finale of this three-game set. It's an important game for San Francisco, which hits the road for seven straight after this. LA on the other hand gets caught looking ahead to seven straight at home starting tomorrow. I believe these starters to be a "wash." Andrew Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Dodgers (sample size is still small), while Alex Cobb is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA for the Giants. In a situation like that, the value swings here to the undervalued home underdog. And while I do think an outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY) I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM) I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-14-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's 2 game win streak came to an end in last night's 7-6 loss here in extra innings to the Yanks. I believe we'll see a similar very tight and competitive affair here on Wednesday as well. The Yanks have won 3 straight and I expect some complacency here. Brayan Bello is 1-5 with a with a 5.79 ERA overall this year for the Red Sox, but he's thrown into the 6th inning in his past 2 starts and he owns a 3.55 ERA over his last six outings. Note that 14 Red Sox/Yankees games this year have been decided by one run! Nestor Cortes Jr. is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA for the Yanks. He faced the Red Sox on July 8th and was shelled for 4 runs over 3 innigns off 8 hits. An outright upset is possible, but the official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* AL GOY Tigers RUNLINE. Houston has won 7 of its last 10, but after yesterday's 7-0 win here, I believe it'll have its hands full on Tuesday. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 10 and been shutout in 2 straight (the Tigers though are 7-3 in their L10 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) I believe these starters are much more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Houston goes with Hunter Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who looked great in his MLB debut against the Rangers on Sept. 5th, allowing three hits over six scoreless. I believe regression is now in order here in his second start. And I like Drew Hutchinson here, who is 2-7 with a 4.08 ERA. He's 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three starts vs. the Astros, but I expect him to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. The outright is possible, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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08-31-22 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* DODGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Mets are coming off back-to-back losses. They fell 1-0 to Colorado after taking the first 2 games over the Rockies, before then falling 4-3 here in yesterday's series opener vs. the Dodgers. In what I expect to be another very tight and competitive affair, one that could very likely be decided in extras, I'm going to suggest laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Obviously we have two of the World's best pithers going head-to-head here. Tyler Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.69 ERA for the Dodgers, while Jacob deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA for the Mets. This is one of those "Any Given Sunday" type of scenarios. It would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to come out on top, and that for all intents and purposes, makes them a "wash." The Mets stayed 3 games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East after the Braves lost 3-2 to the Rockies yesterday, while the Dodgers maintain a 19.5-games lead over everyone. As I said off the top, this one is going to be a classic "duel." Because of that, the play here is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (IL GOM) In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend grabbing the home side on the runline option. Miami has lost 5 straight in this series, so it won't be lacking for motivation today. Miami sees Jesus Luzardo toe the slab, and he's 3-5 with a 3.34 ERA, while the visitors counter with SHane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.20 ERA. Luzardo enters on top form though and I believe that momentum gets carried over here, as he's posted 3 quality starts out of his past 4 games and has posted a 2.67 ERA over 5 August starts. McClanahan has had plenty of success against the Fish in the past, but who hasn't? The bottom line here is that I look for Luzardo to match McClanahan inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued hungry home underedog. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab the Marlins on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (GAME OF WEEK) The Dodgers have taken 2 of 3 here in Miami so far, but with a 3-game series at the Mets starting tomorrow night, I think they get caught "looking ahead." They come in complacent with their ace on the mound Tony Gonsolin, who continues to defy the odds and enters with a 16-1 record with a 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The home side counters with Pablo Lopez, who is 8-8 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP (he's been great in all "night" contests this season as well, going 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA in all such instances.) Lopez is also 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Look for Lopez to match Gonsolin inning for inning and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-28-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have been following an interesting pattern of late, and I expect it to continue here. Chicago has been trading wins and losses over its last 7 games, and coming off the 7-0 loss here yesterday, I believe it has a good chance at continuing that run. That said, in a contest that I expect to be much more competitive that yesterday's game, I'm going to lay this reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chicago is actually 5-1 in its last 6 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss of 6 or more runs as well. The Cubs hand the ball to Adrian Sampson (1-4, 4.04 ERA), who is coming off a shaky outing, but who did well against Milwaukee when he faced it on July 6th, going 6 innins and allowing 1 run and striking out 5 in the victory. I expect him to bounce back here though and raise the level of his game to match his counterpart Eric Lauer (9-5, 3.44.) He's 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Cubs this season, but I expect Sampson to match him inning for inning. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-27-22 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Yanks enter complacent now again after 5 straight victories. That includes a 13-4 win in the opener of this 4-game series here in Oakland, followed by yesterday's much tighter 3-2 victory last night. I'm fully expecting Saturday's contest to follow suit from Friday's highly competitive affair. Domingo German is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA for the Yanks. So far German though has been considerably better in front of the home town crowd, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in New York, compared to 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA everywhere else. The home side counters with Adam Oller, who is just 2-6 with a 6.41 ERA. Oller is coming off a decent outing though and I expect him to build off that, as he went 6 innings, allowing 3 runs in what turned out to be an unfrotunate no-decision vs. the Marlins. I think New York is over-priced here and as I said off the top, I expect another really tight and competitive game here in Oakland as the A's try to snap New York's 5-game win skein; the play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-26-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but they'll be eager to snap a 6-game skid. Most recently they lost 4 straight in Tampa. The Jays look poised for a letdown here after winning 7 of their last 10, including 3 in a row. The Blue Jays won in 10 innings for a 2nd game in a row as well, adding to the letdown scenario here vs. the lowly, albeit hungry Angels. Mitch White is 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA for the Jays, while Reid Detmers is 4-4 with a 3.66 ERA for the Angels. This is the first time Detmers has faced Toronto, but White faced the Angels last year and was shelled for 6 runs over 1 inning. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is LA on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-25-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* TWINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Twins on the runline last night, and while that play unforuntately came up a run short, I believe the stage is now set for a possible outright upset here for the visiting side. That said, the value is just too good to turn down ultimately for the Twins on the runline option in my opinion. The Twins turn to Chris Archer, who is 2-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Minnesota is 0-5 vs. Houston this year, getting outscored 30-8. Archer though is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 9 career outings vs. the Astros, including going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 5 career starts in Houston. Luis Garcia is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA and while he's had plenty of success against the Twins in the past, the bottom line here is that I expect Archer to match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued, but extremely hungry road underdog; the play is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-24-22 | Twins +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* BLOOD-BATH Twins RUNLINE. The hungry Twins are poised for an outright victory here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. The Twins have now lost 4 in a row after droopping 3 straight at home to Texas, and then falling 4-2 here in yesterday's series opener (Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last 10 after 3 or more straight losses). Dylan Bundy is 7-4 with a 4.60 ERA for the Twins. He most recently allowed 1 run over 6 innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rangers. That's back-to-back quality outings for Bundy and I expect him to carry that momentum over here and down the stretch. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez, who is 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA. Look for Bundy to continue to elevate the level of his play and to match Valdez inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings to the hugry undervalued underdog. The play here though is Minnesota on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-23-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels have lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 straight (note that LA is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more consecutive losses), which includes a 2-1 setback here in yesterday's 4-game series opener. I'm expecting another really tight game here as well, and while the outright is of course possible, the runline option is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Tampa can't afford to take the foot off the gas in the AL East race, but after 3 straight victories and winning 6 of its last 7, I believe it comes out a bit complacent here. The starters are pretty evenly matched as well. Corey Kluber is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA for the Rays, but he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Halos. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 4-5 with a 4.12 ERA. Note that over 4 starts since the all star game he's 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA spanning 22 2/3's frames of work. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Angels on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-22-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (GOW) Chicago had its 5 game win streak come to an end yesterday's in its 6-2 loss at home to Milwaukee. I think the Cubs can bounce back here though and, at the very least, keep this one close enough for the comfortable "runline" cover. And after 7 straight victories, I believe that the Cardinals finally have a small letdown here. St. Louis sees Jordan Montgomery toe the slabe, and he's 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA. The home side counters with Drew Smyly, who is 5-6 with a 3.67 ERA. For all intents and purposes, I believe these starters are a "wash," which swings the value here to the undervalued home underdog. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-21-22 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think the Tigers will build off their 4-3 win over the Angels here yesterday. Neither team is going to be in the playoffs. Yes this is Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels, but I still think that LA is overpriced here on the road. Eduardo Rodriguez returns to Detroit today after time off due to injury, and then something personal. He's just 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA, but he threw 3 minor league stints and gave up one run while striking out 11 over 6 innings on Tuesday: "It was difficult to step away from what I've been through my whole career, my teammates and everything," Rodriguez said. "But for me, family is always first. My second family is my teammates and this organization. They've given me the opportunity to be here, and I am back here now with my second family. Mentally, physically, I feel good to be back here." Ohtani is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA. He's been a consistent bright spot for the Angels on both sides of the plate, but I'm expecting Rodriguez to match his counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I've always felt that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's Rodriguez and the Tigers here today. While the outright is possible, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! AAA Sports |
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08-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Texas has dropped 3 of its past 4, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-1. The Rangers catch the Twins at a good time here though in my opinion and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'll recommend grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance for the reasonable price. After sweeping the Royals in 3 games and earning the win yesterday, all signs point to a predictable letdown here for the home side. Glenn Otto is 5-8 with a 4.96 ERA for the Rangers, while Chris Archer is 2-6 with a 4.15 ERA for the Twins. For all intents and purposes, I'll call these starters a "wash." With the majority of the public money on the home side here, the value has now swung the other way for this undervalued underdog. And while I do think the outright win is possible, the official call is to grab Texas on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-19-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (NON-DIV GOY) The Royals have now lost 4 straight after yesterday's 7-1 setback here in Tampa Bay. The Royals have been struggling to score, but I expect them to, at the very least, dig deep and keep this one interesting late. This is a 4 game series. The Rays have hit a "vanilla" part of their schedule, with upcoming series against the Angels and Red Sox up next. Regardless, I believe they'll have their hands full here today with Royals' ace Brady Singer, who is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Shane McClanahan, who is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA. Singer faced the Rays on July 23rd and allowed 2 runs over 6 innings while also striking out 12. Over his last 32 innings of work Singer has posted a 1.67 ERA. McClanhan has lost 2 of his last 3 outing and seen his ERA rise from 1.71 from pre-All Star break, to 2.28 post. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-18-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Arizona last night on the runline, and in the end I didn't even need the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the Diamondbacks 3-2 victory. In another contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'll once again recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. The loss snapped a 5-game win streak for the Giants, and another letdown wouldn't be suprising in this spot in my opinion. These starters are evenly matched. Zach Gallen (8-2, 2.94 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while Logan Webb (11-5, 3.00) counters for the home side. For all intents and purposes, let's call these guys a "wash." With an 8-game road trip starting in Colorado, expect San Francisco to get caught looking ahead here as well. This is a "trap" for the Giants. And I do think it's worth sprinkling a little on the money line, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-17-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona will, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in my estimation, so in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option. Arizona has fallen 6-1 and 2-1 over the first 2 games of this series. San Francisco desperately needs to make up ground, but Arizona isn't going to roll over here. Zach Davies is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for Arizona, while Carlos Rodon is 11-6 with a 2.95 ERA for the Giants. After B2B walk off wins, expect San Francisco to come back down to Earth tonight. I think Davies matches Rodon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to this undervalued underdog. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-16-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL GOM) The Royals beat the Dodgers 4-0, breaking LA's 12-game win streak, but then fell 4-2 in the opener here at Minnesota yesterday. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest grabbing the hungry visiting side on the "runline" option. The Twins lost 3 of 3 to the Angels before yesterday's victory. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Royals, and he's 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA. He'll be opposed by Sonny Gray, who is 6-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Greinke has had difficulties with the Twins in the past, but he's been sharp of late and I expect the veteran to match Gray inning for inning. In a scenario like that, the value swings here to the undervalued underdog. The play is Kansas City on the runline! AAA Sports |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* BREWERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Dodgers 12-game win streak came to an end last night in the Royals' 4-0 victory in Kansas City. I had a play on KC on the "runline" in that one. I think this is a good situational play, as another letdown here after their first loss in ages is imminent in my estimation. The Brewers on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after loing 2 of 3 at St. Louis over the weekend, including a 6-3 setback last night. Julio Urias toes the slab for the visitors. He's been great, going 12-6 with a 2.49 ERA so far. The home side counters with Freddy Peralta, who is 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA. Peralta is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers. Urias is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 6 career outings vs. the Brewers. I believe though that Peralta can match Urias inning for innings and in a scenario like that, I feel the value now swings to this undervalued hungry home underdog. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab Milwaukee on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Win | 107 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight. That's important to note here though, as the Pirates have gone 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more straight losses in a row. They've dropped the first 2 games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 2-0 (note that the Bucs are also 7-3 in their last 10 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) Alex Wood toes the slab for the home side. He's been hit or miss this season, as he's 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors counter with Zach Thompson, who is 3-9 with a 5.08 ERA. Thompson hasn't won in 9 starts, so he won't be lacking for motivation here. I think Thompson can match Wood inning for inning today. For all the reasons listed above, I expect the momentum in this series to shift; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Yes, the Yankees are in desperate need of a victory here after losing 8 of their last 10 games, including the opener here yesterday by a score of 3-2 in exrta innings. New York though is still 71-52 and in the drivers seat in the AL East. Boston fans could care less about the Yanks' issues, as they enter at 56-58, and needing desperately to continue to string some wins together. These starting pitchers are evenly matched. Frankie Montas is 4-9 with a 3.18 ERA for the Yankees this year, while Karl Crawford is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA for the Red Sox. Let's call these guys a "wash." The oddsmakers continue to give New York too much respect here though considering its form, and especially here on the road. I expect a similar type of game as what we saw on Friday, so let's lay the reasonable price for the Red Sox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-12-22 | Jets -1 v. Eagles | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Jets. Both teams are expected to improve this year, but this is a good strategic play on New YOrk. Zach Wilson is going to see more time under center than his counterpart Jalen Hurts today. The Jets have plenty of new receivers, so Wilson will get a few snaps. Sirianni is going to be much more conservative with his veteran laden team. Joe Flacco will also see a lot of action under center for New York, and he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the points, the play is the Jets! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I played the Orioles on the "runline" last night in their 6-5 outright home victory over Toronto, and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Boston has lost 4 straight and has many issues across the board. The Orioles 58-52 and I give them a BIG nod on the bump tonight. Dean Kremer is 4-3 with a 3.43 ERA for the Orioles, while Josh Winckowksi is just 5-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the Red Sox (he's just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.29 ERA in all home games as well.) The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the very real momentum that Baltimore has created for itself right now and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-11-22 | Giants -1.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 50 m | Show |
10* GIANTS (GOW) Many feel that with Saquon Barkley back and healthy this year, and with the coaching change in New York, that the Giants will be able to exceed their season win total of 7.5. Others think they could even compete for the NFC East title, with the Cowboys possibly taking a step back again this year. The Patriots did better than expected last year. Mac Jones did better than expected last year. The Pats will turn to Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe in this one though. Although this is just a preseason game, it's still intereting to note that the Giants are 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series. New England does take the preseason seriously, but I still feel this one "means" so much more to Brian Daboll and his new staff. They have to hit the ground running. And he'll be more prepared now to face his former boss as well. Everything points to a comfortable win and cover for the visitors, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* PIRATES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Arizona has taken the first 2 games of this series, but I'm expecting the Pirates to bounce back in the finale. Conversely, after 3 straight wins, I'm expecting a predictable "letdown" here from the Diamondbacks (note that Arizona is just 2-7 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight wins in a row.) More than anything though, I really do feel that this starting pitching matchup is more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to make us think. The visitors hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA. He's coming off a gem, allowing 1 run over 6 innings in a 1-0 loss to the Orioles on Friday. Keller has now posted a minuscule 1.74 ERA over his past 5 trips to the hill spanning 31 frames of work. The home side sees Madison Bumgarner toe the slab, and he's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. He's coming off a "dud," getting shelled for 5 runs off 10 hits over 5 innings vs. the Rockies on Firday. Look for Keller to be the difference here and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (GOW) Once again I think the Blue Jays are getting too much respect on the road here. They went 2-2 in Minnesota over the weekend, but after yesterday's 3-2 victory, I think they'll struggle here vs. the surging Orioles. Baltimore had won five in a row before an 8-1 loss to Pittsburgh yesterday. The Orioles are 31-21 at home, while the Jays are 26-27 on the road. Jordan Lyles is 8-8 with a 4.40 ERA for the Orioles, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Jays. Each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but note that Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA on the road, compared to 4-2 with a 4.17 ERA at home. Lyles on the other hand is 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA on the road, and 3-2 witha 2.71 ERA at home. While I do think an outright win isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-07-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Boston's getting too much respect here on the road. This is the finale of a 4-game set and so far KC is 2-1 after winning here by a score of 5-4. The loss drops Boston to 54-54 on the season. Ultimately though, I feel these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. Kutter Krawford is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Red Sox, while Brad Keller is 5-12 with a 4.61 ERA for the Royals. Rookie Nick Pratto hit a walk-off hone run with 2 outs in the 9th to give the Royals the win last night and all signs point to that momentum getting carried over here. Keller is coming off his worst outing of the year, allowing 8 runs over 6 innings to the White Sox on Tuesday, but he owns a much sharper 3.57 ERA at home, compared to just 5.75 on the road. Keller comes in off a decent outing, allowing 1 run over 6 innings, but he's alternated wins and losses all season. I like Keller to bounce back here at home; the play is Kansas City on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-06-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (AL GOM) Cleveland had won 4 of 5 heading into its series against Houston, but it's dropped the first 2 games of this series. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the revenge-minded home side on the runline option here. Cleveland is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge 2 straight home losses against an opponent. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab, and he's 8-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He's lost 2 straight, most recently allowing 4 runs over 5 innings in a 5-3 setback at Oakland, before conceding 3 runs to the Red Sox on Monday. Cal Quantrill counters for the home side. He's 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA. He's been hit or miss of late as well, but he has a 3.95 ERA in four lifetime appearances vs. the Astros, and I expect him to, at the very least, match Garcia inning for inning. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-05-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Angels won't be in the playoffs, but I like their chances here on the road in Seattle in the opener of this series. Last night LA hit 7 solo home runs and lost 8-7 at home to Oakland. The Mariners return home from a 7 game road trip. After taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks, I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here. I'm calling these starters a "wash." Seattle goes with Robbie Ray, who is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA, while LA counters with Patrick Sandoval, who is 3-7 with a 3.61 ERA. Each has enjoyed considerable success off his opponent tonight in the past. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-04-22 | Astros v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Playing against Justin Verlander here. He's 14-3 with a 1.81 ERA. Over his last 6 starts he's gone 6-0 with a 0.86 ERA. And this is after Tommy John surgery! Unbelievable, considering many thought his career was coming to an end when he was still in Detroit. At some point regression is going to set in though. And now Verlander faces a Cleveland team that's been playing much better of late, winning three of its last four, including a 7-4 victory at home over Arizona yesterday. Verlander is a pedestrian 21-24 with a 4.61 ERA in 53 career starts vs. Cleveland. The surging Guardians now sit only one game behind the Twins for the AL Central lead. Zach Plesac has had difficulty with Houston in the past, but with Verlander on the mound, I expect him to elevate his game here and match his counterpart inning for inning. Plesac is 2-9 with a 4.33 ERA this season, but owns a more respectable 3.05 ERA at home, compared to 5.33 on the road. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-03-22 | Reds v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Off B2B low-scoring losses, I expect the Marlins to take full advantage of today's matchup and not only win, but win by a significant margin. And because of that, I'm going to suggest to lay the 1.5 runs for the much better price. This is a major starting pitching matchup, one that's so lop-sided that I feel the runline for the Marlins is definitely justified. The visitors see Mike Minor toe the slab, and he's just 1-7 with a ballooned 6.31 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Marlins' ace Sandy Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Miami goes up early and never looks back this evening; the play is the Marlins on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-02-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (NL GOM) The Giants went into the All Star break having won 5 of 6, but then they came out and lost 4 straight to the Dodgers, 3 straight to Arizona, it then went 3-1 against Chicago, before then losing yesterday's opener here to LA by a score of 8-2. It's really now or never for the Giants to try and start making up ground in the Wild card. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Tyler Anderson is 11-1 with a 2.61 ERA, but his numbers are poised to take a "hit" tonight in my estimation. Regression does seem imminent! At the very least, I like the hungry Alex Wood, who is 7-8 with a 4.11 ERA to match his overachieving counterpart inning for inning (owns a 3.51 ERA at home.) While I truly believe an outright victory is in the cards, my official call will be to grab the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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08-01-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (GOW) The Mariners are coming off a tight 3-2 loss at Houston last night. Seattle will look to bounce back here in New York in what shapes up to be a favorable starting pitching matchup for it. The Yankees are off an 8-6 loss here at home to the Royals last night. I had Kansas City on the runline option in that one, and I'm expecting another big effort here from the Mariners as well. But as I said off the top, more than anything this is a matchup that favors the Mariners and starting pitcher Marco Gonzalez, who is 6-10 with a 3.66 ERA this year, and who has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer 15 times already this year (which includes in his most recent trip to toe the slab, conceding 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over Texas.) His counterpart Domingo German enters on terrible form, as he's 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA, allowing 7 runs over his last 7 2/3's frames of work. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, in the end the value here on the runline option is just too good to turn down; the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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07-31-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-6 | Win | 120 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Kansas City has lost 5 in a row, and the first 3 of this series. both of those are important to note for us here on this play, as KC is 7-2 in its last nine after 5 or more straight losses in a row. It's also 10-5 in its last 15 in trying to avenge 3 or more straight losses against an opponent. New York's been great, but with a more interesting series here starting tomorrow against the Mariners, the Yankees get caught looking ahead. Zach Greinke is 3-6 with a 4.35 ERA for the Royals, while Jordan Montgomery is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. For argument's sake, I'm calling these guys a "wash." Greinke has really been on point of late, producing scoreless outings in 2 of his last 3 trips to the hill. The conditions are definitely right for a competitive battle; the play is KC on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-30-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have won 7 of their last 8 games, including yesterday's contest by a score of 4-2. Both teams are in need of a victory tonight and in a competitive contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Drew Smyly gets the nod for the visiting side and I think the veteran keeps the momentum rolling here, most recently he gave up 2 runs over 6 innings in a win over the Phillies. Jake Junis is 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA, but we can expect Smyly to, at the very least, match his younger counterpart inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value inevitably swings to the undervalued underdog; the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-29-22 | A's +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Oakland has been playing well of late and I expect it to catch Lance Lynn and the overpriced home side off guard here. The A's enter having won 6 of their last 7, including 3 in a row at home over Houston most recently. The White Sox had their 3 game win streak snapped in a 6-5 loss at Colorado in their most recent action. Lynn is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA this season. He's coming off a decent outing, but he's just 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA at home. James Kaprielian is only 1-5 with a 4.74 ERA for the A's, but like his team, he's been doing much better lately, going 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA over his last 4 starts. Look for the A's to provide Kaprielian with at least enough support to earn the comfortable ATS cover; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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07-28-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Seattle has a lot working in its favor today from a situational stand-point. The Mariners went into the All Star game on a 14-game winning run, but they fell flat at home in their first series vs. the Astros, losing 0-3. However, the Mariners pulled themselves up and dusted themselves off with 3-0 sweep over the Texans at home in their next series after that. Houston on the other hand went on the road and just went 0-3 at Oakland. Seattle has the "revenge" factor working in its favor today, as well as clearly having a ton of momentum coming into this series as well. I'll give the slight nod to Logan Gilbert over Jose Urquidy as well as far as the starting pitchers are concerned. Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA and Urquidy is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying this price with confidence and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-27-22 | Rays v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Baltimore has won the first 2 games of this series by score of 5-1 and 5-3. I think the home side has a very legitimate shot at winning the finale outright as well, but ultimately in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Drew Rasmussen is 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA for the Rays, while Tyler Wells is 7-6 with a 3.69 ERA for the Orioles. Let's call these starters a "wash." I'm not buying anything into the "revenge factor" here. Look for Tampa's struggles to continue here and for the undervalued Orioles to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the comfortable runline cover; the play is Baltimore on the runline! AAA Sports |
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07-26-22 | Cardinals v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* JAYS RUNLINE (IL GOM) This starting pitching matchup, for argument's sake, is evenly matched. Andre Pallante is 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA for the Cardinals, while Joe Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.22 ERA for the Jays. Berrios has slowly been turning the corner of late and note that he's 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 3 career outings vs. the Cardinals. But the bottom line here is that the Cardinals will be without their two best players for this short 2-game mini-series North of the border, because of Canada's strict COVID laws (both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are not vaccinated.) This is a golden opportunity, not only for Berrios, but for the Jays as well; lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout of epic proportions! AAA Sports |
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07-25-22 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (GOW) The Phillies swept a 3-game series over the Marlins on the road before the All-Star break, but they returned and promptly got swept by the Cubs over the weekend. I say Philadelphia digs deep here and rebounds at home vs. the Braves. The home side turns to Ranger Suarez, who is a great backend pitcher and who is 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA this season. He'll be opposed by Max Fried, who is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA. Fried allowed 7 hits and 3 runs over 7 innings vs. the Nationls in his last outing, but he won't have slugger Adam Duvall in the line-up to back him up after injuring himself on Saturday. The Braves were unable to sweep the Angels over the weekend, as they dropped the final game by a score of 9-1 on Sunday. I expect Suarez to step up here and I believe the hungrier team offers great value in this matchup. That said, in the end I feel most comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Philly on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-24-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) San Francisco went into the break having won 5 of 6, but it's dropped the first 3 games of this series in LA to fall 15.5 games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Note though that San Francisco is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge 3 or more straight losses against an opponent. It's difficult to find many "holes" in the Dodgers right now. They're crushing teams at the plate and on the mound, but I say Alex Cobb can match Clayton Kershaw inning for inning tonight. Kershaw is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA, while Cobb is 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA. I say Kershaw has a bit of an All Star hangover here and I'll grab the much hungrier visiting side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-23-22 | Rangers v. A's +1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think the A's have a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright. The A's won the opener of this series by a score of 5-4 and I'm expecting another close contest here as well. Texas went into the break on a bit of a run, but the oddsmakers are still overreacting here. There's no way that Taylor Hearn should be favored here on the road. He's 4-6 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Yes he has a better win/loss record than James Kaprielian of the A's, but Kaprielian's 5.09 ER and 1.36 WHIP are better. Everything points to another game that's going to be decided late, or even in extras, so because of that I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +7 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 83 h 5 m | Show |
10* WEST-CONF. GAME OF YEAR on the Elks. Winnipeg is 6-0, but it needed an interception in the end zone last week in the final minute to preserve a tough 26-19 win over Calgary at home. Edmonton on the other hand came back from a 31-13 third-quarter deficit to beat Montreal by a score of 32-31. I say that the 6-0 Bombers are "gassed," and I believe they're going to get caught looking ahead to their difficult "rematch" with the Stamps in Calgary next weekend. The Elks are 0-2 SU/ATS at home, but they've gotten progressively better as the season has progressed, as they've now won 2 of their 3 outright, while covering in 3 of their last 4. Look for this progression to continue here; grab the points, the play is Edmonton! AAA Sports |
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07-22-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on Friday night with the Cubbies. Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs and he's 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA, and he'll be opposed by Philadelphia's Kyle Gibson, who is 5-3 with a 4.35 ERA. The Phillies are still in contention despite having a number of key players still sidelined with injury (like Bryce Harper), but note that Gibson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Phillies. The Cubs defeated the Mets 3-2 in their final game before the break and I think they keep the momentum rolling here. I like Steel to match Gibson and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-21-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (GOW) I think Carlos Rodon on the San Francisco Giants have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. The second half gets underway and San Fran sits 12.5 games back of the Dodgers. LA was well represented at the All Star Game, but expect it to suffer a bit of a letdown here in the first game back from the break. Rodon is 8-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Mitch White is just 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA for the Dodgers. Rodon is battle tested, while White has been used in a limited capacity so far to this point. The advantage definitely lies in favor of Rodon as far as the starting pitching is concerned. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying this very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is San Fran on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-17-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL RL GOM) Arizona has lost the first 2 games of this series by identical 4-3 scores and in another contest that I see being decided late, or in extras, I'm going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The bottom line here is that I really like Arizona's Merrill Kelly and I expect him to finish up the first half strong. Kelly is 8-5 with a 3.36 ERA, while San Diego's Mike Clevinger is 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA. Clevinger has been an absolute "gas can" over his last two starts, allowing 4 runs over 5 innings in his last outing. Kelly conceded 2 runs over 7 innings in a 4-3 win over the Giants in his last outing. Look for the "recent form" of Kelly to be the difference-maker here, but the official call will be to grab the D-Backs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-15-22 | Dodgers v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
10* ANGELS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10, but I think they'll have their hands full with their cross-town rivals tonight. The Angels come in on the other end of the spectrum, desperate for a win after losing 8 of their last 10. Clayton Kershaw is 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA for the Dodgers this season. Kershaw has had plenty of success against the Angels in the past, but the bottom line here is I believe Patrick Sandoval can match his veteran counterpart today. Sandoval is 3-4 with a 2.95 ERA and he enters on top form, having conceded 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 14 trips to the hill. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the hungry home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-15-22 | Calgary +4 v. Winnipeg | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* STAMPEDERS (GOW) Two undefeated teams collide in Winnipeg on Friday night and in a contest that envision being decided by whichever of these talented clubs has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It's going to be a tight competitive affair in my estimation. Winnipeg is off a 43-22 road destruction of the Lions, while Calgary annihilated the Elks by a score of 49-6. The Stampeders have won 6 of their last 7 on the road (6-1 ATS in those games.) The Bombers are 3-2 ATS this season and have won both home games, but they've managed to cover against the Stamps just 3 out of the last 11 in the series. Calgary's defense is firing on all cylinders, and so its offense. Running back Peyton Logan had 2 TD's last week for Calgary, while Bo Levi Mitchell had 279 yards passing and 2 TD's as well. The two-time defending Grey Cup Champs have a target on their back, and while they demolished the Lions last weekend, Calgary is an entirely different animal. Zach Collaros had 288 yards and 3 TD's last week for the Bombers, but I'm expecting the pivot to have his hands full today with this aggressive Stampeder pass rush. For all the reasons listed above, grab the point and the Stampeders! AAA Sports |
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07-14-22 | White Sox +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The White Sox are desperate for a series win here to close out the first half, as that'll move them to at least .500 for the season. The Twins come in complacent, as no matter what happens, they'll finish in first place in the AL Central for the first half of the season. These starters are evenly matched, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog. The White Sox' Johnny Cueto is 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, and the Twins' Sonny Gray is 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA. Gray conceded 5 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Rangers in his last outing, while Cueto took the win over the Tigers last Saturday, allowing 5 hits over 8 scoreless frames. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The A's won here 14-7 in 12 innings last night and in another contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras again, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA for the Rangers, while Paul Blackburn is 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA for the A's. Blackburn got smashed in his last start vs. the Astros, but other than that, he's been the more consistent starter in tonight's battle. Gray is also coming off a terrible outing and he's had issues with Oakland in the past. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and grab the A's on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-12-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a free play on the A's on the runline option last night, and while the play came up short, I love how Tuesday's "rematch" sets up for the visiting side. Neither starter has been great. I'd call them a "wash." The Rangers go with Glen Otto, who is 4-5 with a 5.26 ERA, while the A's counter with James Kaprielian, who is 1-5 with a 5.06 ERA. Over his past 7 starts Otta has 24 K's, and 22 walks spanning 33 frames. Kaprielian has turned the corner (quietly,) as over 2 July starts he's allowed 2 runs over 12 innings for a 1.50 ERA. I think the undervalued underdog has much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one; the play though is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-11-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (GOW) I think that Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Arizona won't be lacking for motivation here after going just 4-6 in its last 10. It dropped 3 of 4 to the Rockies at home over the weekend. I had a play on the Giants yesterday in their 12-0 win at San Diego, but I expect them to take a step back here after 2 straight victories. But most of all I really like Kelly in this spot. He's 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA and he'll be opposed by Alex Cobb, who is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA. The D-Backs are in fourth in the division, chasing down the Giants. This is a starting pitching rematch from last Wednesday when the Giants won 7-5 in Arizona. Cobb gave up 4 runs and 7 hits over 6 innings and he left with the Giants losing 4-2. He's faced the D-Backs twice in his career and is 0- with a 9.00 ERA. Kelly left last week's game with a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning, conceding just 2 runs off 2 hits over that span. He's 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 career starts vs. San Fran. Look for Kelly and the Diamondbacks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; the play is Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* RED SOX RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 10, but they snapped a 4-game slide with a much-needed 6-5 win here over the Yankees last night. I think the home side keeps the momentum rolling here as it looks to split this 4-game series with The Evil Empire. I'll call these starting pitchers a "wash," as Jameson Taillon is 9-2 with a 3.63 ERA for the Yankees, while Nick Pivetta is 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA for the Red Sox. Taillon is coming off consecutive shaky outings (allowing 5 runs in his last start), while Pivetta also comes in off a "dud," allowing 7 runs over 6 innings. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Look for Boston to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; the play is the Red Sox on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-09-22 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (AL GOY) The Mariners' Robbie Ray won a Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays last year and while he started out slowly for his new team this season, he's really turned things around over the last month. I expect that progression to contiinue here. Toronto is scuffling, as it's now lost 7 of its last 10 after dropping the first 2 games of this series here, falling 8-3 and 5-2 respectively. Seattle enters on the other end of the spectrum after winning 9 of its last 10. Alek Manoah is 9-3 with a 2.33 ERA for the Jays, while Ray is 7-6 with a 3.62 ERA for the Mariners. Manoah was rocked for 5 runs over 5 innings in a loss to the A's in his last outing, while Ray enters off a gem vs. Oakland, allowing 1 run over 7 innings and striking out 12. Not only are these 2 teams moving in opposite directions, these starting pitchers are as well. Great value here though with the extra 1.5 runs, I'm laying the price and grabbing Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-08-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Marlins have now lost two in a row after a 5-game win streak. That includes a 10-0 setback here yesterday. Note that the Fish are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent. New York has won 4 of its last 5, but I believe this is a pitching matchup that favors the visiting side. The Marlins hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, who is 5-4 with a 2.97 ERA, while the Mets counter with Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.01.) Bassitt was recently placed on COVID protocols, although in the end he didn't show any symptoms. Lopez has struggled a bit of late, but I expect him to, at the very least, match Bassitt inning for inning. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm grabbing the hungry Marlins on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-07-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Cubs have won 7 of their last 10, including 2 straight in Milwaukee before heading here to LA. Yesterday they held on for the 2-1 victory after winning 8-3 the day before. The Dodgers have won 7 of 10 as well, including 3 straight over the Rockies entering this one. Chicago goes with Mark Leiter Jr. to start and he's 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA. Going back to 2017, Leiter has a 1.29 ERA over 7 innings vs. the Dodgers. He most recently allowed 1 run over 6 innings in a spot start vs. the Red Sox. He'll be opposed by Tony Gonsolin, who is 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA. Everyone is now waiting for when Gonsolin will finally have some sort of a letdown, and I believe that day is today. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-06-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* CARDS RUNLINE (GOM) The Cards have lost 3 straight, including the first 2 in this series. Note that this sets up really well from a trend based stand point, as St. Louis is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight losses, and 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to revenge 2 or more straight road losses against an opponent. The Braves have been playing great, but the value swings to the undervalued dog here. These starters are evenly matched in my opinion, as the Cards' Miles Mikolas comes in on top form, now 5-6 with a 2.61 ERA and tiny 0.99 WHIP. The home side counters with Alex Fried, who is 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the exrtra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is St. Louis on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-05-22 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* JAYS RUNLINE (GOW) After 4 straight humbling losses, I look for the Jays to finally wake up at the plate today and to take advantage of this matchup, and not only win this contest, but to do so by a significant margin once it's all said and done. Note that the Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 after 3 or more straight losses as well. The visitors hand the ball to Yusei Kikuchi, who is 3-4 with a 4.74 ERA, while the home side counters with Adrian Martinez, who is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA. Martinez most recently was shelled for 7 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Mariners, while Kikuchi comes in off his best outing of the year, allowing 1 run and striking out 8 over 6 innings in a a victory over the Rays (he was 1-0 with a 4.20 ERA in 3 starts vs. the A's last season.) Look for Kikuchi to continue his progression and for Martinez to take another step back vs. this highly focussed Jays' line-up; the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-04-22 | Blue Jays v. A's +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 122 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (GOW) The Jays have been scuffling the last 2 weeks, coming to the West Coast having lost 6 of their last 10, including getting swept at home by the Rays over the weekend. The A's can empathize, as they've lost 7 of their last 10. That includes 2 straight in Seattle, losing 2-1 and 2-1 each time. The A's have been competitive, but haven't been able to close out many of those games. Alek Manoah is 9-2 with a 2.09 ERA for the Jays, while Cole Irvin is 2-6 with a 3.58 ERA for the A's. I think Irvin steps up here at home and matches Manoah inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +5.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* TORONTO (BOB) I like betting on motivated teams. Toronto is 1-1, but it's had a week off to prepare for this one after a terrible 44-3 loss at BC in Week 3 action. Winnipeg is 3-0, but I say it comes in complacent here after a 26-12 home win over Hamilton last week. Home field has played a big part in this series though, as the home team has won 8 of the last 9. Winnipeg has lost 6 of its last 8 here, as it struggles with the travel across the country. The Argos have been fantastic at home as well, winning 9 of their last 11 at BMO Field, including their only home game this year. Zach Collaros was 21 of 32 for 302 yards and an interception last week for the Bombers, but he didn't have a TD pass. This Argos defense is now out to redeem itself and after the extra week off to prepare, I believe Collaros struggles again this week. Look for Toronto QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson to bounce back at home as well. While I do feel the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is the Argonauts! AAA Sports |
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07-03-22 | A's +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Oakland has lost 7 of its last 10, including 2 of the first 3 games of this 4 game series in Seattle. All 3 games have been tight though and that's why I'm expecting another battle here as well on Sunday afternoon. The Mariners won 8-3 in the first, before Oakland battled for a 3-1 victory in the second. Then Seattle won 2-1 here yesterday. Despite a 3-8 win/loss record, Frankie Montas has been a consistenty bright spot for Oakland this season, as he enters with a highly respectable 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Robbie Ray counters for Seattle and he's 6-6 with a 3.78 ERA. Ray's looked much better after a poor start for his new team, but I still expect Montas to, at the very least, match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog. The play is Oakland on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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07-02-22 | Montreal +4.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* ALS (GOW) This is the second straight game between the teams. Entering last weekend's matchup, the Al's were 0-2 and the Roughriders were 2-0. Montreal left that contest with a decisive 37-13 victory and I'm not reading too much into the "revenge" angle on Saturday. The Riders' offense struggled last weekend, and it didn't help anything that star receiver Shaq Evans left the first quarter with a broken ankle. Center Dan Clark was injured as well and the line gave up 8 sacks. QB's Cody Fajardo and Mason Fine were also picked off three times. The Als got some big plays at home, and while they lost a couple of tight ones on the road to open the season, I believe they have a legitimate shot at winning outright here again. Look for Montreal QB Trevor Harris to, at the very least, keep his team in this game late; grab the points, the play is Montreal! AAA Sports |
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07-01-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* PADRES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Tony Gonsolin is 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been unbelieavable and it's nearly impossible to find any faults in his game right now. I'm not going to bother here. That said, regression does seem imminent for the overachieving hurler in my opinion. Blake Snell comes in on the other end of the spectrum for the Padres, as he's 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA so far. A far cry from his former Cy Young form with the Rays. But facing the mighty Dodgers is going to bring the best out of Snell here finally in my opinion (and note that he's 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA in six regualr season starts vs. them.) Manny Machado was back in the line-up finally for SD after a 9 game absence yesterday and he went 1 for 4. Expect a bigger performance here on Friday. While I do think the outright is possible, my official is to grab the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-30-22 | A's +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The A's come in hungry to reverse their fortunes after losing 7 of their last 10, including 3 straight at New York over the weekend. They travel back to the West Coast today to take on a Mariners team on the other end of the spectrum, having won 7 of its last 10, including 2 of 3 here over the weekend vs. Baltimore. This is a revenge game and series for Oakland here, which was swept by the Mariners at home last week in 3 straight. Adrian Martinez takes the mound for the A's to start and he's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, making his second start of the season after allowing four hits over 6 scoreless in his debut vs. the Tigers. The Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert, who is 8-3 with a 2.44 ERA this season. I say there's room for improvement from Martinez, and room for regression for Gilbert. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option for sure! AAA Sports |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa +2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* REDBLACKS (GOW) Two teams on opposite ends of the mental spectrum collide in Canada's capital on Friday night and in my opinion, this one favors the hungry underdog home side. BC has won in a pair of blowout victories, while Ottawa is still seeking its first win of the season. BC smashed Toronto by a score of 44-3 last weekend, as QB Nathan Rourke threw for 4 TD's. Right now BC ranks No. 1 on both ends of the field, but everything points to that streak coming to an end here. Ottawa is off a 19-12 loss to Winnipeg. Devonte Williams was a standout with 85 yards rushing and a TD. Jeremiah Masoli went 27/38 with 331 yards through the air and I think he'll improve here in friendly confines in this important Week 3 matchup. And it is definitely important for Ottawa here as it tries to avoid the 0-3 hole. This line has dropped with money coming in on the Redblacks all week, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Ottawa! AAA Sports |
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06-29-22 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (GOW) Atlanta took the first game of this series by a score of 5-3 last night, but I think the home side will bounce back here and, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and earn a comfortable ATS cover on the runline option. The Braves see Kyle Wright take the hill, while the home side counters with Ranger Suarez. Wright is 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA, while Suarez is 6-4 with a 4.23 ERA. I say these starters are a "wash" this evening. Note though that Wright is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in 4 career games vs. the Phillies. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, the savvy call is Philly on the runline! AAA Sports |
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06-28-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Tigers fell here 11-7 last night. I'm expecting another tight and competitive affair on Tuesday as well. It's interesting to note that the Tigers are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge a loss in which they conceded 10 or more runs in. These starters are evenly matched. The Tigers go with Tarik Skubal, who is 5-5 with a 3.63 ERA, while the Giants go with Carlos Rodon, who is 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Expect these two to battle into the latter frames, and because of that, I'm grabbing Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-27-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 121 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ROCKIES RUNLINE (BOB) I had a play on the Braves on the runline option last night, and it unfortunately lost. It was a brutal bad beat. The Braves had a 2-0 lead in the top of the ninth inning, with none on and a 1-2 count, only to then lost 4-2 in 12 innings somehow. It was a disaster, and another improbable victory for LA. I say the Dodgers though come in "hung over" from that win and I look for the hungry home side to take advantage. The Rockies lost 2 of 3 at Minnesota over the weekend. Tyler Anderson is an unsustainable 8-0 with a 3.00 ERA for the Dodgers; look for that sparkling record to take a hit here at hitter friendly Coors Field. Chad Kuhl is a much more realistic and still impressive 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA for the Rockies, not easy to do when your home field is in the thin air of Colorado. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, the value lies with the Rockies on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
10* BRAVES RUNLINE (BOB) Tony Gonsolin is 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been excellent, but I don't believe his sparkling numbers are realistic or that he'll be able to maintain this blistering pace. On the national stage, I finally expect a bit of a letdown here from Gonsolin. He'll be opposed by Spencer Strider, who is 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA. Strider's coming off a shaky start against the Giants, but I believe he'll settle down here at home. The Braves have won four of their last six games and I expect Strider to, at the very least, match the overachieving Gonsolin inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued home underdog. While the outright is clearly possible, let's lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Atlanta on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-25-22 | Edmonton Elks +8 v. Calgary | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* ELKS (GAME OF YEAR) The 0-2 Edmonton Elks will be hungry here to avoid and 0-3 hole. I believe Calgary takes the foot off the gas and allows the visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one comfortably close to cover with the large spread they've been afforded here. The Stamps are now 2-0 after last week's slime 33-30 OT come from behind win at Hamilton. Can anyone say "letdown spot" here though?! The Elks come in battle-tested after their 26-16 loss at home to Saskatchewan. Edmonton has now lost 11 of its last 12 dating to last season. It's interesting to note that the last time the Stamps hosted the Elks here last season, Edmonton pulled off the 32-20 upset as a 5.5-point dog. Edmonton QB Nick Arbuckle looked much better last week, finishing with 315 passing yards and I expect him to take another step forwrd this week as well. I think Bo Levi Mitchell and the home side do indeed come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door wide open down the stretch; no outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points with the Elks! AAA Sports |
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06-25-22 | Mets v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10* MARLINS RUNLINE (TOP) Miami had won three in a row and four of its last five before yesterday's 5-3 series opening loss here vs. the Mets. Suffice it to say, I think the home side bounces back here on Saturday and, at the very least, keeps it close enough to earn the comfortable cover on the runline option. The Mets hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Trevor Rogers. Rogers is 3-6 with a 5.83 ERA, but he's 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Mets in his career. Bassitt is 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA, but the veteran has lost 3 of his past 4 trips to the hill. Look for the regression to continue here and for Rogers to step up and take advantage in familiar surroundings. While the outright win is not out of the realm of possibility, I simply can't turn down the value here with extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Marlins on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-23-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (BOB) Baltimore split a 2-game home series vs. the Nationals, winning 7-0 yesterday and I like it to keep the momentum rolling on the road in Chicago this evening. The White Sox took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays, but fell 9-5 in yesterday's finale. The biggest reason though I like this play is that Chicago is dealing with several key injuries. 3 players left yesterday's game because of injury, including SS Danny Mendick, RF Adam Engel and CF Luis Robert. Baltimore goes with Dean Kremer to start and he's 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA. Chicago goes with Johnny Cueto, who is 1-3 with a 2.95 ERA. These guys are a "wash" in my opinion. Look for the surging Orioles to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with spread; the play is the Orioles on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-22-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (BOB) I had a play on the Royals on the "runline" option last night and I'm once again back on that horse this evening. The home side turns to Shohei Ohtani, who is 5-4 with a 3.28 ERA. The visitors counter with southpaw Daniel Lynch, who is 3-6 with a 5.19 ERA. Lynch has been "turning the corner" of late, coming off his best performance of the season last Friday vs. the A's, conceding 1 run over 5 innings. The Angels line-up is top heavy, and with Ohtani pitching tonight, I think the Royals' depth prevails here; that said, grab the extra 1.5 runs with the Royals! AAA Sports |
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06-21-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 12-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
10* ROYALS RUNLINE (BOB) The Royals have been playing well lately and I expect that trend to carry over here. They've won 4 of their last 5. That includes yesterday's series opener here in LA by a score of 6-2. That loss snapped the Angels 3-game win skein. The Royals hand the ball to Johathan Heasley, who is 1-3 with a 3.72 ERA, while the home side counters with Reid Detmers, who is 2-3 with a 4.25 ERA. These starters are more evenly matched here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Look for Kansas City to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with extra 1.5 runs on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-20-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* ARIZONA RUNLINE (GOW) San Diego is off 3 straight losses at Colorado and I believe it's ripe for the picking here as well for the hungry Diamondbacks. Arizona enters having won 3 of its last 4, including 2 of 3 from Minnesota over the weekend. These starters are evenly matched. Zach Davies is 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA for the D-Backs, while Yu Darvish is 6-3 with a 3.35 ERA for Friars. These teams are evenly matched offensively as well (middle of the pack,) so that means the value here in this contest swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Arizona on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-19-22 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (BLOOD-BATH) Chicago won 7-0 yesterday and I think it has a legtimate shot at winning tonight's game as well. However, at this price, I simply can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket at this price. Chicago turns to Michael Kopech, who is 2-2 with a 1.92 ERA, while the home side counters with Christian Javier, who is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA. I say these pitchers are completely evenly matched. Note though that Chicago is 7-2 in its last 9 after a road shutout victory in its last outing. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, the play is Chicago on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-18-22 | Padres v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* ROCKIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Colorado exploded for a 10-4 victory last night and while I feel it has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright as well, in the end I'll recommend laying this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. Nick Martinez is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the visitors, while German Marquez is 3-5 with a 6.09 ERA for the home side. Marquez has dominated the Friars throughout his career though, going 9-3 with a 4.31 ERA vs. them. Martinez has faced Colorado 3 times and owns a 6.75 ERA against it. Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers, but look for Marquez to take advantage of familiar surroundings; the play is Colorado on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-18-22 | Calgary +1.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* STAMPEDERS (GOW) Calgary held on for a 30-27 home win over Montreal last weekend and I expect it to carry that momentum over into its first road game of the season. The Ti-Cats come in off a listless 30-13 road loss at Saskatchewan. Calgary lost 23-17 in the only meeting between the team's last year, but it's still won 16 of the last 18 in the series. Bo Levi Mitchell is going to settle down here for the Stamps after going for 194 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. Running back Ka’Deem Carey led the league in rushing last year and he had 2 TD's. I expect him to have a big day against this suspect Hamilton defense. Hamilton TB Dane Evans looked inept last week and I believe he'll struggle against this aggressive and experienced Calgary defense. Grab the points, the play is the Stampeders! AAA Sports |
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06-17-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (IL RL GOY) Two hot teams collide. I think Zach Plesac can match Clayton Kershaw inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued underdog. The Guardians have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8 games. Their offense is middle of the pack, but their team ERA is seventh. The Dodgers come in off B2B wins over the Angels. They have their No. 1 offense in the league (5.08 RPG) and the No. 2 collective ERA. Plesac is 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA, while Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Kershaw returned from a month long injury and looked decent in his last start, but the door is open here for the hungry Plesac to match pace. The Dodgers have in fact been struggling somewhat at the plate of late, while Cleveland is arguably playing its best baseball of the season right now. For all the reasons listed above, grab the Guardians on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 31 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (ART OF WAR) I'm not counting out Boston quite yet. The NBA really needs a Game 7. It would be the icing on the cake for a really great season after a couple of years having to deal with COVID. Everyone needs the extra revenue a Game 7 would deliver. I say Golden State finally stumbles on the road here, as I look for this hungry Celtics side to go up early, and then never look back. The achilles heel of the Warriors has been their play on the road, and Boston has been at its best at home. The Celtics still have the league's No. 1 defense and we can expect it to be out in full force tonight. I say Boston keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn; lay the points, the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports |
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06-16-22 | A's +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The A's have been blown out in 2 straight losses to open this series. That includes yesterday's 10-1 setback. Expect Oakland's best starting pitcher to keep his team competitive in the finale this afternoon though. With an interesting interleague series starting here tomorrow against the Cardinals, Boston gets caught looking ahead. Rich Hill gets the call for the home side and he's 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA. He's been decent, but not perfect this season. Paul Blackburn is 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA for the A's. He's off an unfortunate no-decision against the Guardians, allowing 4 hits over 8 shutout innings. "Times like this are tough on anybody," Blackburn said recently. "We're just trying to come in with a clear mind and taking that one-game-at-a-time mentality. It's tough. But guys are coming in with a positive attitude every day. They're working. Guys aren't complaining. Sooner or later, the results are going to turn in our favor." While I do feel an outright upset is in the cards, I feel more comfortably laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline option! AAA Sports |
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06-15-22 | Twins v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (BOB) Marco Gonzalez has had troubles with the Twins in the past, but he comes in on fine form and I expect him to match Minnesota's Sonny Gray inning for inning. Gray is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA, while Gonzalez is 3-6 with a 3.63 ERA. Both come in off strong starts and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night. Seattle managed the 7-6 win last night and all signs point to a similar battle here; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports |