Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-16 | Rockets v. Thunder -1 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation. After losing four straight, we’re expecting the hungry Thunder to find a way to get the job done tonight. Most recently OKC fell to Detroit on the second game of a back-to-back. Houston comes in off an easy 115-88 win over the 76ers, but with a game at home against Portland tomorrow night, we think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. It’s all hands on deck for OKC tonight as it looks to break the slide and with games at home against Brooklyn and Indiana over the weekend, there won’t be any “looking ahead” for the Thunder. Also note that Houston is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of three points or less, while OKC is 3-2 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and already 2-0 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. Play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Bulls v. Blazers -3 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers. REASONING: The Bulls haven’t played since Saturday’s 116-105 win over the Wizards, while Portland edged Denver 112-105 on Sunday night. From a scheduling stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the Blazers, as this is the start of a tough Western Conference road swing for the Bulls, with a game at Utah on Thursday night, before then visiting the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets over the next week and a half. We think Chicago gets caught looking ahead and comes out a bit flat in this one. Portland on other hand plays the final game of a short three-game home stand before embarking on a long Eastern Conference road swing, putting added emphasis onto this contest. Note that Chicago is 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of 3 points or less and just 18-20 ATS in its last 38 after a win by ten points or more, while Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 3 point or less. Lay the points, play on the BLAZERS. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Michigan. REASONING: Ohio is heading bowling this year, but still has its sights set on taking the MAC East Division and overall conference crown. The Bobcats most recently edged Buffalo 34-10 back on November 3rd. CMU on the other hand is just 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips will be in a foul mood after dropping three straight, most recently a 37-17 loss to Miami Ohio on November 4th. If we look a little deeper into Ohio’s last win, we find that it was definitely a little “lucky” as it was outgained 413-377 and lost the first down battle 19-18. It also dropped the time of possession battle 31:36 to 28:24. Note that Ohio stands 63rd in the nation in scoring offense at 29.3 PPG. The defense is ranked 35th in allowing 23 points. The Chips are a pass first team, they actually rank 27th in the country with an average of 279.3 YPG. Overall CMU is ranked 64th in scoring offense at 29 PPG. The defense isn’t horrible either, allowing 29.3 PPG, ranked 72nd overall. Note that Ohio is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while CMU is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. We think that despertion leads to motivation for the home side, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-13-16 | Winnipeg v. BC -4.5 | Top | 31-32 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the BC Lions. REASONING: No need to overthink this one in our opinion. BC lost two late regular season meetings with the Blue Bombers, so the “double revenge factor” is definitely very real today. We think that Lions dynamic young QB Jon Jennings is in for a big day. BC dominates in all three phases of the game and will have the added benefit from playing in front of the home town crowd. The Bombers have been on a charge and are led by fomer Lion Andrew Harris, which adds extra incentive for BC in this one as well. This is a great “situational” play, but also note that the Blue Bombers are in fact just just 1-2 ATS in their last three when playing with eight days rest, while BC is 6-3 ATS at home this year and 8-3 ATS when playing the role of favorite. Lay the points, play on the LIONS. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Spurs v. Rockets +2 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that San Antonio has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road fav of three points or less, while Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less (it’s also 19-9 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two days of rest). The bottom line: Houston shocked the Spurs with an outright victory on their own floor just last week, but we think the visitors come in tired this evening after their win at home over the Pistons just last night. Look for HOUSTON to push the pace and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +5 | Top | 119-105 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Timberwolves. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Minnesota is already 2-1 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. The bottom line: LA comes to town off a hard-fought 110-108 win in Oklahoma City just last night. The Clippers have been on an absolute tear, they’re 8-1 overall (7-2 ATS), but we think they’re finally set up for a letdown tonight against this energized Wolves team. Minnesota has had two nights off since handling the Magic 123-107, and we’re expecting it to carry that momentum and confidence over into this one. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Indiana +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Indiana. REASONING: Both teams will have a bunch of fans in the stands tonight, note that this one is being played on a neutral court in Hawaii. The Hoosiers were 27-8 last year and made it to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tourney before falling 101-86 to NC. Kansas was 33-5 and made it to the Elite Eight before falling 64-59 to Villanova. Indiana had a big hole to fill in replacing PG Yogi Ferrell, but the team is hopeful that Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk will answer the call. Also keep your eyes on James Blackmon Jr., who averaged 15.8 PPG last year. Last season Indiana ranked 11th in the country in scoring at 82.6 PPG. The Hoosiers were poor defensively, but did turn things around come tournament time. The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 title 12 years in a row. Kansas also lost some talent from last year, as Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden are gone. Frank Mason will be leaned upon heavily by the Jayhawk this season, he averaged 12.9 PPG. Last year Kansas was 16th in scoring at 81.3 PPG. Defensively they were ranked 71st int he country in allowing 67.6 PPG. Kansas may find a way to win this game outright, but we think the talent on Indiana can match pace with the high-powered Jayhawks until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the HOOSIERS. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boston College. REASONING: BC still has a shot at a bowl, but will need to win two of its last three games and while an outright upset is almost assuredly out of the question, we think that the visitors can keep this one competitive enough to come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. BC will be especially motivated here after getting blown out at home to Louisville last weekend. FSU finally became bowl eligible last weekend with a 24-20 win at NC State and we think it’s going to have a small mental letdown tonight. A 52-7 loss to the Cardinals sounds horrific, until we remember that FSU was annihilated 63-20 to Louisville as well earlier in the year. Clearly FSU is better on paper and on the field, but we think it’s just a classically bad “spot” for the home side today. Note that BC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while FSU is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven in the same points range and just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite. Grab the points, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +5.5 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. REASONING: Utah is 7-2 and is still trying to win its division, but at just 5-4 and with losses in three of its last four games, the Arizona State Sun Devils are desperate for one more victory and to become bowl eligible. Both teams come out of their bye, which we think favors the hungry Sun Devils. But primarily from a scheduling stand-point, this has bascially become a “must win” game for ASU. And that’s because it ends the year with two straight incredibly tough road games at Washington and Arizona. For us this pick is entirely “situational.” Also note that Utah is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five following its bye week, while ASU is 4-1 ATS following its bye week. Grab as many points as you can, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New Orleans Pelicans. REASONING: New Orleans is going to win a game one day. And today may be the day! While we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do think that the desperation levels in which the visitors play with today will take this one down to the wire at the very least. Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is fourth in the NBA with an average of 30.9 PPG and among the leaders in rebounds, steals, blocks and double-doubles. The Pelicans come to town off a 102-94 setback at Sacramento on Tuesday. Milwaukee on the other hand is primed for a letdown here after its three game win streak was snapped in an ugly 86-75 OT loss to Dallas on Sunday. The Bucks have been playing sloppy this year as they’re allowing 18.1 PPG on 16.1 turnovers. Note that the visitors also play with “revenge” tonight after falling 117-113 at home earlier in the month. And note that New Orleans is 20-17 ATS in its last 37 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW ORLEANS. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Hawks v. Wizards -2 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Washington Wizards. REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense: Washington is 0-3 SU/ATS. Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS. The Wizards lost to the Hawks in Atlanta 114-99 on Opening Night, so play with the very real “revenge” factor tonight as well. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we’re constantly on the look out for. And note that Atlanta is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of three points or less, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the WIZARDS. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Central Michigan. REASONING: CMU is 5-4 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It’s the wrong place at the wrong time for the Redhawks in our opinion as we expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Central Michigan comes into this one in a foul mood after losing its second straight, this time a 27-24 home loss to Kent State last week. Miami Ohio is primed for a letdown here after its third straight win though, including a shocking 28-15 road win over EMU last weekend. The Chippewas are 59th in the nation in scoring at 30.3 PPG. They’re 73rd in the nation on the defensive side, allowing 28.4 PPG. The RedHawks are 117th in the country in scoring at just 20.9 PPG, while the defense ranks 51st by allowing 25.7. Note that CMU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following a straight up loss, while Miami Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in it last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The situational and motivational factors favor the visitors and so too do the numbers and trends. We’re laying the points, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 SIDE OF THE MONTH on UCLA. REASONING: ULCA has had a tough year and losing starting QB Josh Rosen to injury hasn’t helped. We had a play on UCLA as our GAME OF THE YEAR a couple of weeks back and released the selection before the extent of Rosen’s injury was fully known. While we got saddled with a loss because of the poor opening line, almost everyone else would have cashed against the closing one. Colorado is putting together a special season, so far it’s 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS. But with its bowl berth now all sewn up, we’re expecting a bit of a drop off in intensity tonight. And while Bruins’ backup QB Mike Fafaul has been far from perfect (eight TD’s and eight INT’s over 2-plus games), UCLA will be leaving everything on the field tonight and until the end of the season as it desperately tries to win three more games and become bowl eligible. On paper this is a major mismatch, but situationally it sets up perfect for UCLA. Note that UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while Colorado is 0-2 ATS following its bye. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -5 | Top | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Timberwovles. REASONING: This play is based on a couple of simple factors. The Wolves are winless to start the year and had early double-digit leads evaporate in both setbacks. This is the team’s first home game and clearly Minnesota will be looking to put together a full four quarter effort. The Wolves also play with immediate revenge, as they’d fall in Memphis on Opening Night. The Grizzlies bounced back from a loss in New York to beat the Wizards at home in the second game of the back to back, but the team expended a bunch of energy in securing the OT victory. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances all coming together for this one selection. Also note that Memphis is just 41-48 ATS in its last 89 on the road, while Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. Lay the points, play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +16 | Top | 52-20 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State. REASONING: This line opened at 16 (that’s the line we have) and it climbed to as high as 18.5. It’s come down a point as of writing, but regardless, we think the hungry home side can do just enough to come away with a solid ATS victory tonight. Both teams come out of their bye week. We think this will work negatively for the 8-0 WMU Broncos, who most recently beat EMU 45-31 on October 22nd. However, we believe the extra week off to prepare for the final four games of the year will greatly benefit the 4-4 Cardinals. Ball State doesn’t have many chances left to become bowl eligible and we’re expecting the team to bring its best effort each and every week. A big upset win over WMU would pave the way to a bowl appearance and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, we do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a competitive game this evening. Defensively these teams are in fact pretty close, with WMU conceding 19.3 and Ball State allowing 25.4. This sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors today. Play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Nets v. Bucks -7 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks. Reasoning: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. Other times though we feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here as Brooklyn is coming off a game just last night at home against the Pacers, while the Bucks have had two days off to refocus after a 107-96 setback to the Hornets in their opener. Lay the points, play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Connecticut v. East Carolina -5 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC SIDE OF THE YEAR on East Carolina. Setting the scene: The Huskies are 3-5. The Pirates are 2-5. The Huskies are 1-4 in the East Division of the AAC, while East Carolina is 0-3. Both teams come in off losses, UConn fell 24-16 to Central Florida, while East Carolina lost 31-19 at Cincinnati. The Huskies: UConn had a 13-0 lead with 9:41 in the second quarter last week, but fell apart and could never recover in the second half. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 242 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. UConn has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging only 131.2 YPG. The Huskies have also struggled against the pass, giving up 289.8 YPG. The Pirates: ECU struggled against Cincinnati and fifth-year senior QB Gunner Kiel, who made his season debut as a starter in that one. QB Phillip Nelson had 283 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The run game was strong with 221 yards, while the offense would post 504 overall. ECU ranks ninth in the nation with 513.7 YPG, but it’s allowed 32.4. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road and just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog, while ECU is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 2-1 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. We think the desperate Pirates finally play a bit of defense, while the offense continues to shine and helps the team to pull away down the stretch for the easy ATS cover. Play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Eagles. REASONING: Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are better than we thought they’d be this year. The Vikings especially have been impressive considering the injuries to starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and to starting RB Adrian Peterson. QB Sam Bradford has been brilliant so far through four games for the Vikes, he’s yet to throw an INT. Minnesota comes into this one a perfect 5-0, but we think that rest is going to lead to rust for the Vikes, who are coming off their bye-week. Some times a bye week is very beneficial, but other times it can slow down the chemistry of a healthy team and that’s the scenario we see playing out today. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be in a foul mood after last week’s lacklustre 27-20 setback to Washington. Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the league, but Philadelphia is right behind, ranked third overall. Minnesota has been an ATS covering machine over the last calendar year, but we think the conditions are now finally right for a letdown. Grab as many points as you can, play on the EAGLES. AAA Sports |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 146 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL SHOCKER on the Miami Dolphins. REASONING: We had a play on Miami in its 30-15 win over the Steelers. At 2-4, the Dolphins chances of even making the playoffs are still extremely slim, but at 1-5, they would have already been looking ahead to next year. Now Miami has something to build off and another upset this week and especially against a division rival would put the Fish back in the conversation at the very least. Buffalo has rattled off four straight victories, but if ever a team was set up for a “trap” or a “letdown,” or being caught “looking ahead,” then this is it! After four straight victories, Buffalo comes to Miami, knowing that it has a huge showdown at New England next week, followed by a game at home against the Seahawks, before then enjoying its bye. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of Miami today to warrant a play of this size and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Avalanche v. Panthers -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 195 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Florida Panthers. REASONING: We’re obviously expecting a lop-sided rout today and are basing this selection on a few different situational factors. Colorado has to be feeling pretty content after its first four games of the year, sitting at 3-1. Most recently it steamrolled the Lightning 4-0 on Thursday. But with an entire week off after tonight’s contest, before a home game against Winnipeg, we think the Avs are primed for a classic letdown this evening. Conversely, the Panthers come in fired up, after back-to-back victories to start the season, the team has dropped two straight, including a 4-2 setback to the Capitals on Thursday. Starting on Monday, Florida hits the road for a lengthy trip, with stops at Pittsburgh, Toronto, Buffalo and Detroit all on the horizon. Suffice it to say, the situational factors are working completely in favor of Florida today and we’re expecting the home side to make the most of it. Play on the PANTHERS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. Setting the scene: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an epic SU victory for the lowly Boilermakers, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive against what we feel will be a slightly disinterested and contented Nebraska side. Purdue: The Boilermakers are 3-3, most recently coming off a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. The team promptly fired head coach Darrell Hazell afterwards. Purdue trailed 35-7 at half and its second half rally would eventually fall short. The Boilermakers were outgained by only a slim margin though, 520-504. Purdue can sling the ball, it’s tied for 19th in the country in passing at 305.5 YPG. Overall it averages 27.5 PPG, while the defense concedes 34.8. QB David Blough will once again be given the green light to operate today, he has 1,756 yards, 12 TD’s and ten picks. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 6-0 after holding on for a 27-22 road win over Indiana last week. Nebraska led by 17-0 after one quarter, but twice had its lead shaved to two points in the second half. The ‘Huskers won the yardage battle 360-333. Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring offense at 35.3 PPG and are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 PPG. QB Tommy Armstrong Jr has ten TD’s and four INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Purdeu is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall, 4-0 ATS in the same time span as road dog of 21.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival, while Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival. We think the shake up at head coach works in our favor today and the razor-focused Boilermakers catch the ‘Huskers a bit off guard. Grab the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Miami Dolphins. Setting the scene: At 1-4, the Dolphins have little hope at making the playoffs. At 1-5 though, it would truly then be time to start looking ahead to next season. It’s do-or-die every week for Miami and while we’re going to stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do think that the intensity the home side brings today will prove to be the difference. The Steelers: Pittsburgh beat the Jets on Sunday to move to 4-1. The Steelers have looked unstoppable for the most part, except for their inexplicable 34-3 setback to the Eagles. The Dolphins: Miami lost 30-17 to the Titans last week. Ryan Tannehill and RB Jay Ajayi have got to get things figured out quickly, or heads are going to roll in South Beach. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of 3 1/2 to seven points, while Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. This is a great situational play, as we believe the visitors are going to get caught in a classic “spot” scenario here, with a game against New England next week, followed by their bye-week, all signs point to the Steelers “looking ahead” to that much more important part of their schedule. Combined with the “do-or-die” mentality that the Fish have to bring tonight, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | UCLA +3.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -100 | 154 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. Setting the scene: We’ve been holding off writing this analysis as we’ve been waiting on the status of UCLA QB Josh Rosen. We watched the Bruins fall 23-20 to Arizona State this past weekend. Rosen was injured twice in that game, but it did not look very serious. Afterwards, all initial reports indicated that the versatile pivot would be fine, but then the next day his status was downgraded to questionable. Backup Mike Fafaul took all of the snaps in practice this week and a line which opened at +3.5, has since moved to +7.5. The books at least are clearly expecting Fafaul to get the start today. While we’re not thrilled with the big QB change (clearly an unfortunate set of circumstances), this selection was based primarily on the “situation” and some extremely strong and relevant ATS trends to begin with anyways. Whether Rosen gets the start or not, we’re expecting the hungry Bruins to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Reasoning: The PAC 12 is not the conference it once was, as there has been a lot of inconsistent play. UCLA is 3-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS this year, while Washington State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. First off this is a “revenge” game for ULCA, which fell 21-17 in Pasedna last year. The Bruins have had a tough scheulde, which started with an OT loss to Texas A&M. UCLA then beat UNLV and BYU on the road, but then suffered a nine-point setback to Stanford, before beating Arizona by 21 and then falling to ASU this past weekend. Washington State has also had an up and down start, but we think is primed for a big letdown tonight. The Cougars began their season with a loss at home to FCS squad Eastern Washington. Then they lost in Boise to start the year 0-2. Washington State though has responded with three straight victories, including blowout wins over conference foes Oregon and Stanford. Last Saturday the team travelled to Stanford and hammered the 15th ranked Cardinal 42-16. After the string of recent success and off their huge win last weekend, we think these College kids are primed for a letdown this weekend. It’s also not hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to its next two games, both on the road, starting at PAC 12 South leading Arizona State. The bottom line: Note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Washington State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Whether Rosen plays or not, we think the “hungrier” and more focused BRUINS have a legitimate shot at scoring the outright upset today. That said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 81 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers. Setting the scene: It’s a classic strength against strength matchup tonight, as San Diego possesses one of the best offenses in the league, while the Broncos own one of the best defenses. They say “defense wins championships,” but there’s nothing on the line of that magnitude tonight. We think the hungry home side does just enough to pull off the slight upset this evening. The Broncos: Denver comes to town on a short week and off its first loss of the year. It’s a prime situational “letdown” spot if we’ve ever seen one. In last week’s 23-16 loss to the Falcons, it was backup Paxton Lynch under center as Trevor Siemian was given the night off to recoup his non-throwing shoulder. It was a bigger loss than what the final score indicated, as Paxton would gain some production late when the game was already decided. Note that Paxton was sacked six times on Sunday. Siemian will be back directing the show tonight, so far he has six TD’s and three INT’s this season. The Chargers: San Diego could easily be 4-1 right now. Note that it entered Week 5 sitting at 1-3, having led every single game in the final two minutes. Clearly the team has defensive issues, but the unit catches a break in facing this vanilla Broncos offense, which has struggled with its ground game, turning the already one-dimensional offense even more so. But as mentioned above, the Bolts are in fact the AFC’s highest-scoring team with an average of 30.4 PPG. The bottom line: The short week always favors the home side. Not only does Denver have to worry about the four day turnaround, but head coach Gary Kubiak has been dealing with health issues all week after he was taken to hospital by an ambulance on Sunday night. This one has all of the situational factors in place for an outright upset, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on SAN DIEGO. AAA Sports |
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10-09-16 | Bengals +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 162 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR on the Cincinnati Bengals. Setting the scene: No one thought Dallas would be 3-1 after the first four games when starting QB Tony Romo was injured in the preseason. So far Cincinnati has struggled with consistency, but we think the 2-2 Bengals will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Cincinnati: They come to town off a confidence building 22-7 home win over the Dolphins. LB Vontaze Burfict returned from suspension and made an immediate impact. Expect the unit to get a ton of pressure on Cowboys’ rookie QB Dak Prescott. Note that over their last two games the Bengals have giving up a total of just 114 rushing yards. Dallas: Prescott was 23 of 32 for 245 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in the win over the toothless 49ers last week. The Cowboys though are still without the services of Romo, No. 1 WR Dez Bryant, starting LT Tyron Smith and their top CB Orlando Scandrick. The bottom line: Note that the Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 following a SU victory, while the Cowboys are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 in front of the home town crowd. We think the injuries finally catch up to the Cowboys this weekend and that Cincinnati’s defense continues to shine. Play on the BENGALS. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois. Setting the scene: We think the 5-0 Broncos come in a bit complacent today, leaving the back door open just enough for the hungry 1-4 Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Northern Illinois: The Huskies come into this one with a bit of confidence after picking up their first win of the year, 31-24 against Ball State last weekend. The offense really started to click and we’re expecting that momentum to be carried over tonight, note that the unit posted a whopping 653 total yards. Keep your eyes on WR Kenny Golladay, who had 13 catches for 184 yards and two TD’s. Western Michigan: The Broncos rolled over Central Michigan last week 49-10. The defense posted eight sacks and two turnovers, icnluding an INT pick-six. So far the offense averages 459.6 YPG, including 247 on the ground. The bottom line: With a date against 0-5 Akron next weekend, WMU has hit a soft part of its schedule and we think the home side comes in disinterested and takes its foot off the gas. Grab as many points as you can, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Indiana +32 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Indiana. Setting the scene: Ohio State is a special team and one which barring epic disaster, will most assuredly be competing for the national title once it’s all said and done. The Hoosiers are a pretty good team too though and we think they’ll be able to keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch with the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Indiana: It’s 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State 24-21 at home last week. QB Richard Lagow was 16 of 26 for 276 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Devine Redding has posted over 100 yards in three of four games played. So far the Hoosiers average 29 PPG, ranked 67th in the country. The defense though is likely even better, as it’s conceding just 21.8 PPG. Ohio State: It’s 4-0 SU/ATS. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week. QB JT Barrett was 21 of 29 for 238 yards and four TD’s and one INT. RB Mike Weber had 144 yards rushing. The offense averages 57 PPG, ranked third overall, while the defense has been conceding an average of just 9.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the nation. The bottom line: The Hoosiers play with revenge today after falling 34-27 to the Buckeyes at home last year. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but 28 to 32 points better?! We don’t think so, as Indiana is no slouch, with offense and defense which both rank in the top 75. With back-to-back road games upcoming at Wisconsin and Penn State, we think the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on INDIANA. AAA Sports |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is the defending Sun Belt Champ, but it lost it’s QB in the offseason and has opened the 2016/17 campaign by going 0-4, including a humiliating loss to FCS Central Arkansas last time out. Georgia Southern comes out of a bye-week after getting smashed 59-31 on the road to Western Michigan. This is a great situational play though (which we’ll detail shortly) and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side is going to keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Eagles: Clearly they’re the better team today. Despite the lop-sided loss to WMU, Georgia Southern is still only giving up 305.8 YPG and 228 yards through the air. Four turnovers proved costly in the loss to the Broncos. QB Favian Upshaw was just 4 of 6, but did have two TD’s as well as one INT. Arkansas State will no doubt have its hands full trying to stop Georgia Southern’s ground attack, a unit which is so far averaging 317.8 YPG. Red Wolves: Coming off a 9-4 season, there were high expectations for Arkansas State this year. Clearly things haven’t gone the way that coach Blake Anderson envisioned, but despite the loss to Central Arkansas, there were a few silver linings to be taken from the setback, as QB Justice Hansen would go on to finish with 424 yards and three TD’s. Blake Mack also had eigth catches for 142 yards. Turnovers played a big part in the setback as well, as ASU had four, while unable to force any the other way. The bottom line: We think Georgia Southern gets caught “looking ahead” to its big matchup at Georgia Tech next week. While a non-conference game, clearly moving up to play in the Power 5 conference atmosphere is something these guys would have had circled on the calendar before the season started. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RED WOLVES. AAA Sports |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -101 | 153 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. Setting the scene: Minnesota is 3-0 because of its tough defensive play. The offensive unit has been horrible though. While far from perfect, the Giants are much more balanced, with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 3rd. We think the skill players and overall depth of the visitors will prove to be too much for the over-achieving Vikings to handle tonight and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Giants: New York had a mental lapse in last week’s 29-27 loss to the Redskins as Eli Manning was picked off three times. The offense would go on to finish with 28 first downs and 457 total yards (120 rushing). Manning was solid (other than the three INT’s), finishing with 350 yards on 25 of 38. WR Odell Beckham Jr. had 7 catches for 121 yards. So far the Giants average sixth in the NFL with 396.7 yards per game and 99 YPG on the ground. The defense isn’t far behind, allowing just 339.7 YPG, good for tenth in the league. The Vikes: We think that Minnesota suffers a classic letdown tonight, especially after its 22-10 road win in Carolina last week. So far the defense has been great, allowing just 295 yards per game, ranked 6th in the league. The offense though has been terrible. Last week it had just 13 first downs and 211 total yards. Sam Bradford was an unimpressive 17 of 28 for 171 yards and a TD. Minnesota managed just 45 yards on the ground off 16 carries. With the injury to Adrian Peterson, it’s not surprising to learn that the Vikes rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (note that they’re also 28th in passing yards per game at 265.3). The bottom line: The Giants play with revenge tonight after getting thumped 49-17 in Minnesota last season. Ultimately we believe that the Vikes’ “luck” runs out this evening as we’re expecting the veteran Manning to at the very least, keep his team in this one down the stretch. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW YORK (and consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well!). AAA Sports |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson. Setting the scene: It’s a battle of ACC heavyweights, as 4-0 Louisville takes on 4-0 Clemson on Saturday night. This line opened with the Tigers as 3.5 point favorites, but as of writing, Clemson is now the dog, getting a couple of points. So far Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable this year, but we think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue and against this top notch defense. Louisville: Jackson would finish with 417 yards and five passing TD’s, to go along with two more rushing scores in his team’s 59-28 win over Marshall last week. Jackson so far has 12 rushing TD’s, which is No. 1 in the country. The Clemson rush defense though is the most stout he’ll have faced yet this season. RB Brandon Radcliff is another dangerous weapon, to go along with WR James Quick, who has 360 receiving yards thus far. Their offense is No. 1, but the defense is ranked in the middle of the pack, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 47th in the nation. Clemson: The Tigers dismantled Georgia Tech last weekend, dominating on both sides of the ball in the 26-8 win. QB DeShaun Watson continues to slowly get better as the season has worn on, he was 32 of 48 for 304 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Wayne Gallman has yet to find his stride, rushing for 100 yards just once. Note though that offense averages 33.5 PPG, 57th overall in the country. Defensively though Clemson ranks among the best, last week it held the Yellow Jackets up-tempo attack to just 29 yards in the air and only 95 yards on the ground. Over the first four games the unit has given up an average of just 11 PPG. The bottom line: This clearly won’t be a cake walk, while it’s true that Jackson has yet to face a defense as good as Clemson’s, it’s also true that the Tigers have yet to face an offense as dynamic as this one. Note though that Louisville has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors in the past, going just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-5 ATS in its last eight in weeks 5 through 9. And note that this is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 10-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records. They say defense wins championships, and while nothing but a perfect record after five weeks is on the line in this one, we still feel that adage applies in this big conference matchup. Play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut v. Houston -27.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Houston. Setting the scene: It’s time for some revenge tonight as UConn managed a 20-17 win at home over Houston last year. The Huskies are 2-2 SU, while the Cougars are 4-0. Connecticut lost 31-24 at home to Syracuse last week, while Houston smashed Texas State 64-3. The Huskies: UConn failed to convert on a fourth down on the Orange two-yard line with just seconds left to play, spoiling the come from behind victory. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 264 yards with one TD and one INT. Shirreffs has struggled to open the year, with just two TD’s to go along with two INT’s. The Huskies have one great receiver in Noel Tomas, who had 14 catches for 111 yards last week, but beyond him, they’re pretty thin on the offensive side of the ball. Note that the unit is ranked 109th in the country at 21.2 PPG. The defense has done a better job, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 46th. The Cougars: QB Greg Ward Jr. was 20 of 26 against Texas State for 289 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. Ward Jr. didn’t play in Week 2 against FCS Lamar, but over the three games that he has been involved in, he’s thrown for 936 yards with five TD’s and two INT’s. The run game was also dominant with 243 total team yards last week, led by Duke Catalon with 70. So far the offense has averaged 44.8 PPG. The defense could arguably be even better, as it’s given up an average of 10.5 PPG thus far. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, while Houston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. We simply can’t see the Huskies matching pace with the Cougars high-powered offense. So far Shirreffs has been terrible and he’s about to go up against the best defense he’s seen all year. We like HOUSTON to put the foot on the gas from start to finish, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Setting the scene: The 0-2 Bears will be desperate today as they try to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole, but Dallas can smell the blood in the water. We’re expecting the home side to win all three phases of this contest and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Chicago: A short week isn’t going to help the Bears, who fell at home to Philadelphia 29-14 on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler was just 12 of 17 for 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week, and then left in the second half with a thumb injury. Cutler will be a game time decision. Dallas: Back-to-back divisional games are out of the way and the Cowboys could easily been sitting at 2-0 right now, but a one-point loss to the Giants in Week 1 has the team batting .500. Regardless, Dak Prescott has been good under center and the run game, the defense and special teams have all been solid. The bottom line: The Bears have major issues at the most important position. Prescott has yet to throw a TD, but he also hasn’t thrown an INT. But the stage is now set for Prescott as we think Chicago is ripe for the picking (note that the Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a loss of more than 14 points). Lay the points, play on DALLAS. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -100 | 117 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Setting the scene: Pittsburgh being at 2-0 SU/ATS to open the season comes as little surprise, but Philadelphia with the identical record definitely is. The Steelers rolled over Washington 38-16 in Week 1 and then pulled away for a 24-16 victory over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Eagles routed the Browns 29-10 in Week 1 and then cruised to a 29-14 win over the Bears on Monday night. The Steelers: Both sides of the ball have looked great. The defense has held two dangerous opponents to a combined 32 points. Not perfect, but 16 PPG average is obviously very good. Especially when the offense puts up the kind of numbers that it has. Note that the defense held the Bengals to just 34 rushing yards on the first 16 carries, while QB Andy Dalton was just 31 of 54. Dynamic WR AJ Green was held to just two catches for 38 yards. The Eagles: Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic over the first two games and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling. Wentz has so far gone 43 of 71 for 468 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s. Wentz has been carrying the load offensively, as the run game has stalled out of the gates, the unit averaging fewer than four yards per carry. The bottom line: Wentz faces his toughest test to date. How is he going to perform if Big Ben puts some points on the board and he’s forced to play from behind? With the run game struggling, we think Wentz is going to be overwhelmed this afternoon (note that the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games following a Monday night appearance the week before). We think that Wentz and the home side are getting too much respect and will therefore back the red hot STEELERS to keep things rolling in Week 3. AAA Sports |
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09-22-16 | Texans -1.5 v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Houston Texans. Setting the scene: Both teams are 2-0 SU/ATS and something has to give. If you asked Bill Belichick if he’d take a 2-2 record after the first four games of the season, we think he’d likely have jumped on it. The Pats won last week, but Jimmy Garoppolo injured his throwing shoulder. New England was already without the services of star TE Rob Gronkowski, who along with Garoppolo, is a game-time decision this evening. While we don’t have a ton of faith in turn-over prone Brock Osweiler, there’s no question in our minds that this is an opportunity that highly favors the Texans, a deep offensive team, backed by a superb defensive unit. New England: If Garoppolo does play, clearly he won’t be 100%. If Gronk does play, he also clearly won’t be in “game shape” right out of the gate. How effective can third string QB Jacoby Brissett be? Whoever gets the start, New England will clearly be looking to establish itself on the ground, LaGarrette Blount had 123 yards off 29 carries last week. The Patriots will also be hoping that their defense can once again answer the call, an above average unit, which has been a strength of the team early. Houston: Osweiler was 19 of 33 with one TD, but he also had two INT’s in last week’s 19-12 win over the Chiefs. WR DeAndre Hopkins is back and already dominating this season, he had seven catches for 113 yards and a TD last week. RB Lamar Miller was a force on the ground as well, rushing for 83 yards last Sunday, after going for 106 in Week 1. The Texans looked deadly defensively, as JJ Watt continues to make his comeback, last week he had 1.5 sacks and five tackles. So far the defense has five forced turnovers through the first two weeks. The bottom line: Belichick is a genius and is better than any coach in all of sports history in being able to get the most out of the least, but we think this is a hole too deep for even “The Hoodie” to get out of tonight. The short week favors the healthier Texans. New England has a game against division rival Buffalo next week, a much more important contest. We think that Belichick is already looking ahead to that one, making this a fantastic situational investment. Play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse +12.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. Setting the scene: While we’ll stop short of calling for an outright upset, we do definitely feel this one sets up fantastic for the undervalued home side, so in the end we’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. USF: The Bulls are firing on all cylinders, they’re coming off back to back blowout SU/ATS victories, including in last week’s 48-17 win over NIU last weekend. But with a game at home against Florida State next Saturday, we think the visitors are going to have a predictable letdown this afternoon, unable to help themselves in “looking ahead” to that monstrous matchup. Syracuse: The Orange are 1-1 to start their season opening three-game home stand. The team will then embark on three straight on the road, so a victory today would clearly go a long way in perhaps shaping the rest of the year. The bottom line: We base our selections off many different criteria. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we’ll completely dissect a contest from top to bottom. We think this is a great “situational” play though. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | Georgia State +30 v. Wisconsin | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 139 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State. Setting the scene: When the Sunday NFL games are going off, we’re already looking ahead to the following week’s College Football contests. We often jump on lines early and sometimes that works for us and other times that works against us. The latter is the case here, as we got Georgia State at +30 and that line has since gone up considerably, even +35.5 in some places. Regardless, we still love this selection as we feel that Wisconsin gets caught in a classic “trap” scenario this afternoon. Georgia State: Has nothing to lose here after a double-digit home loss to Ball State and a 48-14 setback on the road to Air Force. Note that Georgia State welcomes back 16 starters from last year. The Panthers though are not a good team and we won’t try to convince you that they are. However, as stated off the top we think this is a great spot for the visitor to sneak in through the back door down the stretch against a complacent home side that has bigger things on its mind. Wisconsin: A shocking 16-14 win over LSU in Week 1 as a 12.5 point underdog was followed up with a 54-10 beatdown victory over Akron as a 21.5 point favorite last Saturday. Now the Badgers have to play lowly Georgia State, before back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan. The bottom line: Note that Georgia State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 31 points or more. All signs point to a “trap,” so grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | California +8 v. San Diego State | Top | 40-45 | Win | 100 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Cal. Setting the scene: Cal trounced Hawaii in Australia in the season opener and has now returned home for a much stiffer test this evening. SDSU has won six straight at home and is 15-2 its last 17 at Qualcomm Stadium. We think that California has the athletes to keep this one close and while we would not be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to the points as the savvy move in this matchup. Cal: The Bears are going to have their hands full with Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has 4,370 career rushing yards and who has 2,057 yards and 21 TD’s in his last 15 at home. But if ever there was an offense that could match pace with the high-powered Aztecs, it’s California, who has averaged 630.2 yards of total offense and 46.0 points per game in its last five dating to last season. QB Davis Webb had 441 yards and four TD’s on 38 of 54 passing last week. SDSU: This team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball. Beyond Pumphrey, the Aztecs also have standout sophomore QB Christian Chapman, who had 283 yards and two TD’s against the Wildcats last week. The defense has held 12 straight opponents to 400 yards or less, but clearly the home side faces a very stiff test today. The bottom line: These teams are in fact very similar, as SDSU ranked second among FBS teams both in turnovers gained (34) and INT’s (23) last season. But not to be outdone, note that Cal finished tied for 11th in the FBS in fumbles recovered (12) and tied for 13th in total turnovers gained (23). Ultimately we think that Webb gives his team a punchers chance at an upset today. Play on the GOLDEN BEARS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Nevada v. Notre Dame -26 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Setting the scene: It’s the home opener for the Fighting Irish, who return home in a foul mood after falling 50-47 to Texas in overtime last weekend. The Wolfpack come in contented after taking care of Cal Poly in an unimpressive 30-27 effort in Week 1. In our opinion, all signs point to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Wolf Pack: Nevada won, but it didn’t look good last week against lowly Cal Poly. QB Tyler Stewart was a bright spot though, finishing 17 of 23 for 189 yards and two touchdowns. RB James Butler ran for 123 yards off 21 carries. Nevada is solid offensively, but has more questions than answers on the defensive side of the ball. Fighting Irish: QB DeShone Kizer was hot early on and head coach Brian Kelly would stick with him. Kizer would finish 15 of 24 for 215 yards and five touchdowns, also adding 77 on the ground. Kizer will get the start here and he has a ton of different weapons to utilize, including Torii Hunter Jr, who had four catches for 37 yards and one touchdown last week. Notre Dame lost a bunch of starters from last years smothering defensive unit and that was clearly evident in last week’s setback. However, we’re expecting Kelly to have the unit fired up and razor focused this afternoon. The bottom line: We base our picks off many different factors, but for this one we’re keeping it simple. We’re not going to read too much into last week’s setback and believe the Fighting Irish defense is much better than what we witnessed. The Longhorns caught some early momentum and Notre Dame was never able to catch its breath. With the offense leading the charge again this week, we’re looking for the home side defense to be the difference maker today. Lay the points on NOTRE DAME. AAA Sports |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse +14.5 | Top | 62-28 | Loss | -106 | 105 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Syracuse. Setting the scene: Both teams come off victories, as Louisville rolled to an impressive 70-14 victory over light-weight Charlotte last week, while Syracuse handled Colgate 33-7. When these team’s played last year, Louisville pulled away for the 41-17 victory. The Orange are going to be competitive in this spot in our opinion though and they’re going to catch a Cardinals team “looking ahead” to its important matchup against high-powered Florida State next week. Louisville: Here’s a great spot to take advantage of. We find it almost impossible not to see the Cardinals looking ahead to their game against FSU next weekend, a team they lost 41-21 to last season. Syracuse: The Orange have the benefit of playing three straight at home to open the year. Next weekend they play USF. Syracuse has its sights set on a bowl game this season after a disastrous 2015/16 campaign. 16 players return, so new coach Dino Babers has a lot to work with this season. The bottom line: Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was outstanding in the win over the 49ers, but the step up in competition is significant in league play today. We think the Orange can hang with Louisville offensively and make this one a little more interesting than what Vegas believes. Also note that Louisville is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a fav in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Syracuse is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can on the ORANGE. AAA Sports |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss +5 v. Florida State | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ole Miss. Setting the scene: Both teams are ranked and each are coming off 10-3 seasons. We think this one is going to be war right down until the final whistle, a contest which could very likely be decided by whichever team has the ball in its possession in the final moments. In this expected competitive affair, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Mississippi: The Rebels catch a break as this is in fact a neutral site game, being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss put up an average of 334.7 YPG through the air last year and also racked up an additional 183.1 YPG on the ground. The offense is led by QB Chad Kelly, who notched 4042 passing yards and a 31:13 TD:INT ratio. The unit does have a couple of holes to fill because of players leaving to go to the NFL, but Markell Pack, DaMarkus Lodge and Damore’ea Stringfellow are set to the fill the void at the WR position. Defensively the team was pretty good, allowing 258.8 through the air and a much better 127.1 YPG on the ground. The run defense is going to have to be sharp today in facing one of the top RB’s in the nation. Florida State: FSU averaged 255.8 YPG passing last year and 168.2 YPG on the round. Heisman trophy candidate Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon heavily in this game and throughout the season. And that’s because the Seminoles will be starting a freshman under center, Deondre Francois is expected to be among the best in the conference by the end of the season, but he’s being thrown directly into the fire in having to face one of the best defensive units in the SEC in his first game. The bottom line: Note that the Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in the same position. We think Ole Miss can win the battle in the trenches and at the point of attack, putting the pressure on Francois to step up. Kelly is tested and proven and he’ll be the difference maker today. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, as stated off the top, we’re going to grab as many points as we can in this one. Play on OLE MISS. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -116 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Clemson. Setting the scene: Clemson played in the College Football Championship Game last season and will be looking for a repeat performance this year as well. Auburn is expected to be much more competitive after finishing 7-6 last season, but still clearly has miles to go before being able to hang with the best in the nation. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we expect Clemson to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Clemson: Quarterback DeShaun Watson will be fired up and looking to make a statement to open the season, his only loss of the year came against Alabama in the Nat. Champ game. Watson completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 4,104 yards, 35 TDs and 13 INT’s last year. He was also the team’s second leading rusher with 1,105 yards on the ground and another 12 major scores. Leading rusher Wayne Gallman is also back and he totaled 1,527 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. Auburn: It finished dead last in the SEC West. It also finished ranked 85th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense last season. The bottom line: Auburn’s secondary should be much improved this year, but the unit is young and likely faces its stiffest test of the entire season right out of the gate. Too much Gallman and too much Watson in this one, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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08-20-16 | Chiefs +3 v. Rams | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Kansas City Chiefs. Setting the scene: We jumped on this line early in the week and got Kansas City at +3 and it’s since come down to closer to +1, but regardless, we love the Chiefs to assert themselves this evening after letting their Week 1 contest slip away on a no-time left on the clock heave by the Seahawks. LA on the other hand is primed for a letdown tonight after it stormed back from a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat the Cowboys 28-24 last weekend. The Chiefs: Despite losing 17-16 at home on a 37-yard pass from Trevone Boykin to Tanner McEvoy with no time left on the clock, the Chiefs pretty much dominated the Seahawks in every category last week. Backup QB Nick Foles is expected to see considerable time today and he’ll be a difference maker tonight in our professional opinion. The Rams: Case Keenum has been named the starter, so the pressure is off first-round pick Goff, who struggled mightily last week. Keenum was 6 of 7 for 58 yards, but it was Sean Mannion who picked up the slack by going 18 of 25 for 147 yards and three TD’s. LA looked poor on the defensive end and we think it’ll have its hands full with this dynamic Chiefs offense today as well. The bottom line: KANSAS CITY is the much more motivated team today, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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08-14-16 | Texans +3 v. 49ers | Top | 24-13 | Win | 110 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Setting the scene: Houston’s future looks bright with the addition of QB Brock Osweiler. San Francisco is excited to have new coach Chip Kelly directing things, but the 49ers’ QB picture isn’t very clear at this point. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Houston: These teams met in the 2015 NFL preseason opener and Houston would go on to win by a 23-10 decision. Osweiler is expected to see considerable time in the first half of this one, note that he completed 170 of 275 passes in eight games for the Broncos last year. Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden will be battling it out for the No. 1 backup spot. San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick? Blaine Gabbert? Which one will be the starting QB on Opening Day is anyone’s guess at this point, but the winner of this battle will likely be the one that can grasp Kelly’s elaborate schemes the most quickly. Kaepernick completed 59% of his passes and tossed only six TD’s compared to five INT’s last year, while Gabbert completed 63.1 percent, while throwing ten TD’s compared to seven INT’s. The bottom line: Houston seems like the more co-hesive unit to open the preseason as we’re expecting the 49ers to need some time to adjust to Kelly’s new direction. Play on the TEXANS. AAA Sports |
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08-13-16 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams. Setting the scene: The St. Louis…I mean, the LA Rams return to Los Angeles to play their first game in their “new” city. The new look Rams will welcome “America’s Team” in the Dallas Cowboys to town, a club which finished just 4-12 last season after QB Tony Romo went down with injury early on. Dallas: The Cowboys drafted RB Ezekiel Elliot out of Ohio State to help with their offensive issues this offseason. Expect to see a bunch of backup QB Dak Prescott out of Mississippi State as well. LA: The Rams finished 7-9 last year. The team traded up to get the No. 1 pick in the 2016 Draft and selected QB Jared Goff out of Cal. LA would use five of its six picks in total to address the offensive side of the ball. The bottom line: Neither team instills much confidence at the moment, but we think the pressure is on the home side to perform right out of the gates, even in Week 1 of the preseason. Billions of dollars have been spent and a victory tonight would go a long way in impressing owners, management and the new fan base. Jason Garrett and the Cowboys have a lot of things to work on in the preseason, but winning in Week 1 is not of any importance whatsoever. Lay the point on the RAMS. AAA Sports |
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08-11-16 | Broncos v. Bears -1.5 | Top | 22-0 | Loss | -106 | 106 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* Week 1 NFLX SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Chicago Bears. “Motivation” is a big factor to take into account when handicapping any game. For the most part teams use the preseason as a time to figure out what they need to work on and which people to keep and which to let go. Most week’s games are completely meaningless in the preseason, but every now and then there comes along a situation where one side would be more motivated than the other and in our professional opinion, that’s the case here! Denver: The Broncos just won the Super Bowl and their future Hall Of Fame QB retired immediately after. Clearly Denver could care less if it wins today, it has so many issues to deal with and address, including a QB competition after backup Brock Osweiler also left the team in the offseason. Chicago: Da Bears finished 6-10 last year despite QB Jay Cutler putting together one of his best seasons, posting a career-best 92.4 passer rating. The bottom line: It was another dismal season for Chicago last year, but here’s the perfect opponent to start the 2016/17 season off against. A win against the defending champions in front of the home town crowd will be something everyone in the organization will be hungry to accomplish. While both teams will be utilzing almost entirely backup and wannabe players, we think the motivation factor does indeed heavily favor the BEARS this evening. AAA Sports |
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06-24-16 | Montreal +2.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 22-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Montreal Alouettes. These teams met in the preseason just a couple of weeks ago and the Blue Bombers would beat the Alouettes. It’s the real deal tonight though and in our opinion, Montreal’s stout defense will be the difference tonight. Last year the Als would allow just 20 PPG. Kevin Glenn gets the call under center and he’ll be leaned up on for guidance this year. Winnipeg on the other hand is a bit of a wild card right now in our opinion, its roster was drastically overhauled in the offseason. Winnipeg finished as one of the worst in the league last year, so having an entirely different roster is likely a good thing, but there’s no question the team is going to have to go through a transition period before any sort of chemistry can be created. We’re basing this pick on MONTREAL’s defense, grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Toronto Blue Jays. After yesterday’s 7-0 series opening setback, we’re expecting the home side to respond in similar fashion today. Despite his recent struggles, Jays’ “ace” Marcus Stroman has a big advantage this afternoon. Monday’s loss came on the heels of a tough four game series over the Baltimore Orioles in which Toronto would go 3-1, three of the contests being decided by a single run: "Today was kind of a letdown," said R.A. Dickey, who took the loss last night. "I don't think we played with a lot of energy today. We had a lot of games where lately we've been very invested against division opponents. It's plausible that that would be the case. You play the Phillies, and they don't have a winning record. It was just a low-energy day for us all around it felt like. Thank goodness it only counts for one loss, you know? It feels like a lot worse." With that wake up call now behind them, we’re expecting Toronto to take advantage today. The Phillies trot out Zach Eflin to make his major league debut. Eflin was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 11 starts in Triple-A. Stroman (5-2, 4.94) gave up four runs with two K’s over 5 1/3’s innings vs. the Orioles on Thursday, earning a no-decision in the 6-5 setback. Stroman though is 3-0 with a tiny 1.72 ERA in seven interleague games, including three starts. Game 2 favors the home side, we’re expecting a convincing victory (note that the Jays are 28-18 their last 46 interleague contests for +5.3 units). Lay the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price, play on TORONTO on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Handicapping a series is much like coaching one, you have to make necessary adjustments from game-to-game. We think the Cavaliers are the way to go in Game 1. Can LeBron James, along with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving steal this one outright? Obviously it wouldn’t be a complete shocker if the Cavs pulled off the series opening straight-up upset. In fact, James won Games 1 and 3, before succumbing in six to the Warriors in last year’s Finals. We feel this is a great situational play as Golden State comes into the Finals tired and injured, while for the most part it’s been a walk-in-the-park for Cleveland to this point. The Warriors have not been blowing teams out of the water in the postseason and were taken to the wire by the Oklahoma City Thunder, they’d become one of only three teams in NBA playoff history to claw back from a 3-1 deficit. How much gas is left in the tank for the defending champs after that series? And after setting the NBA record for regular season wins? There is no more “aura” of invincibility on their home floor. Cleveland on the other hand has given James plenty of rest throughout the regular season and in the playoffs and now “The King” is ready to do what he does best. Clearly James’ supporting cast is light-years better than it was last season. The Cavs are ready to play “small ball,” and they’re equipped to play in the paint as well. In a contest which we feel will come down to whichever team has the ball in its hands last, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Golden State Warriors. It’s been a back and forth series and here we are in Game 7. Golden State has reeled off two straight victories and now has a clear advantage in playing this decisive contest on its own floor. The Thunder have already won two games in Golden State, but we think Oklahoma City has a letdown here after failing to secure the series victory on its own floor in Game 6. The Thunder had a late collapse in the fourth quarter and Golden State, spurred by 41 total points from Klay Thompson, would use a 19-5 surge to seal the deal. We simply can’t see Golden State faltering here. The Thunder have completely exceeded everyone’s expectations and the combination of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant is a formidable one, but the Warriors’ starters are just too good and we believe they’ll have their best game yet of the Western Conference Finals. Note that Oklahoma City is just 6-11 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Golden State is 2-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. The NBA is going to get what it wanted, a rematch between Cleveland and the Warriors. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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05-27-16 | Twins v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Seattle Mariners. We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, expect the home side to have pulled away for the convincing beatdown victory. The visitors turn to Pat Dean (0-1, 3.86 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off three hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Saturday. The book is clearly still out on Dean, who will once again be thrown to the wolves in having to face Felix Hernandez (4-3, 2.21) who comes in off a gem, giving up no runs off four hits and three walks with five K’s over six innings in a victory vs. Cincinnati on Saturday. It was the third time this season that “The King” has held an opponent scoreless in an outing. Note that Hernandez is 2-1 with a tiny 1.55 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. We are a big fan of playing against over priced favorites, but in this case, we’re expecting Hernandez and Seattle to take full advantage of this situation. Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12.5 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors. We played Toronto in Game 1 and after getting out to a quick 7-0 start, the Raptors would struggle the rest of the way, eventually getting blown out 115-84. Toronto has lost Game 1 of all three rounds to this point and has subsequently bounced back to earn the Game 2 victory in each. Can the Raptors regroup and pull off the massive upset in Game 2? Unlikely, but we think tonight’s affair will be much more competitive and expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be an ample amount of points afforded to them. After back-to-back grueling seven game series victories, Toronto just couldn’t match pace with the rested Cavaliers in Game 1. The Raptors have responded well in this position, not just in the postseason, but all year long, going 13-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Cleveland is just 20-27 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have been consistently inconsistent in the playoffs, but look primed for a bounce back effort tonight after the poor showings in Game 1. Grab as many points as you can, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-18-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder. We played the UNDER in Game 1, but will focus on the side in Game 2. OKC shocked the world with a stunning outright Game 1 victory and we think the visitors have a legitimate shot at doing it again on Wednesday night. Another upset may be asking too much, but clearly this is a deep Thunder team which comes in with a ton of confidence and momentum. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are unstoppable right now and we have a hard time seeing the Warriors slowing them down in Game 2 either. Momentum is a factor that is almost impossible to properly quantify into a line and we think the oddsmakers are way off in setting this one. Note that the Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The aura of invincibility surrounding the Warriors’ “home court advantage” is over and while we won’t in the end call for the outright upset, we do think OKC keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-17-16 | Raptors +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Toronto Raptors. Yes, Toronto is coming off a couple of grueling seven game series victories and will be without its starting center for at least a couple more games. Yes, Cleveland is well rested after dispatching its first two opponents in four games each and sports a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving in its line-up this year. We think this is a great situational wager though as we’re expecting “rest” to lead to “rust” and for the battle tested visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Cleveland has had nine whole days off between series, while Toronto comes in firing on all cylinders, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have finally found their stroke and will be looking to build off that momentum. Jonas Valacuinas is a key part to Toronto’s offense, but Bizmak Biyombo has filled in admirably. Oklahoma City beat the Spurs in six games and not many gave it a chance in Game 1 of the West Conf Finals vs. the Warriors, but we all know how that one finished. We’re not going to call for an outright upset, but all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s time to face reality, despite having all around specialist Kawhi Leonard and new comer LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs are an old team which have run out of gas. San Antonio’s vaunted defense has no answer for the Thunders’ Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and OKC’s veterans and bench players are dominating their counterparts. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan having nothing left in the tank, while the Thunder are receiving big contributions from the likes of Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters. Note that San Antonio is just 2-7 ATS this year when playing on one days rest, while Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in the same position. Why are the Spurs favored here? This is a horrible matchup as OKC’s athletes are running circles around the plodding and aging Spurs. Play on the THUNDER (and make sure to sprinkle a little on the money line as well!). AAA Sports |
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05-03-16 | Phillies v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards snapped a four-game skid by exploding for a 10-3 win in yesterday’s series opener. St. Louis had only managed six runs in its previous four games, but used five home runs to end the Phillies’ six-game win streak. Gaining momentum is difficult, but once lost it’s even harder to find it again. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors, while conversely, St. Louis can smell the blood in the water and will be eager to build off yesterday’s performance and to further mentally distance itself from its losing stretch. Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.55 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a 3-0 win at Washington on Thursday. Nola has been great on the road this year, but horrible at home. We think these numbers quickly start correcting themselves, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (2-1, 3.07 ERA) who gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3’s innings in his 2016 debut, but who has given up just six runs over his last 25 innings of work spanning four starts (note that Wacha owns a 0.75 ERA at home this year). All signs point to a lop-sided beatdown, a perfect situation to pull the trigger on a run-line selection; play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-01-16 | Giants v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. Is Noah Syndergaard an “elite” pitcher in this league? His numbers are certainly impressive. While he’s not on the same level as a Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw because of his road record (although he’s already 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA away from friendly confines this year), we would classify Syndergaard as an elite level hurler when he’s throwing at home. Madison Bumgarner used to be an elite level starter, but he’s taken one small step back from the top guys in the majors. Syndergaard should be a bigger fav in this spot in our opinion, which makes laying the 1.5 runs for the big plus money return too good to turn down today. New York is rolling, it will be going for its ninth straight win and will also be out to send a message to San Francisco with a series sweep. The Mets have also now won six in a row at Citi Field. Bumgarner (2-2, 3.64 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits over 6 2/3’s innings in a 5-4 victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Monday. Bumgarner has great numbers vs. the Mets over his career, but he didn’t even face them last year. Syndergaard (2-0, 1.69) struggled in his only start vs. the Giants as a rookie in 2015, but that was then and this is now. Note that Syndergaard posted a 7-2, 2.46 ERA home record last season and was 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in all day games in 2015. Also note that he has not given up a home run in 26 2/3’s innings while stirking out 38. The combination of Syndergaard’s home dominance and the very real momentum that New York has at the plate right now make the METS on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers will look to push this series to a Game 7 and while they may ultimately fall in Toronto, we look for the home side to take advantage of familiar surroundings and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Pacers led by 15 late in the third quarter but somehow managed to lose 102-99 on Tuesday. It certainly wasn’t because of Paul George though, who had 39 points: “It's a desperation feeling," George said last night. "We'll give everything we have tomorrow night and make sure that that's enough." Toronto’s stars have struggled, Kyle Lowry is averaging 15.2 points and 31.4 percent shooting, while DeMar DeRozan, who had 34 points in Game 5, had averaged just 13.3 and 29.6 percent over the first four games of this series. The Raptors collapsed in a similar situation vs. the Nets two years ago, losing Game 6 on the road and then Game 7 at home. Note that Toronto is a horrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 in the first round of the playoffs and just 15-18 ATS in its last 33 when playing with two days rest, while Indiana is 12-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and 5-3 ATS in its last eight when trailing in a playoff series. We feel that home floor will prove to be pivotal tonight, play on the PACERS. AAA Sports |
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04-29-16 | Braves v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and this case we feel that Jon Lester (2-1, 1.98 ERA) is so significantly better than his counterpart, that laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price is the way to go. Lester most recently allowed one run off five hits, walking one and striking out four over seven innings in his team’s 8-1 win vs. the Reds on Friday. Lester would throw 100 pitches and 66 for strikes. After posting a 3.60 ERA at home last season, Lester is an even better 2.70 this season. The Braves counter with Aaron Blair (0-1, 5.10 ERA), who gave up three runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in his season debut last Sunday vs. the Mets. Blair looked decent in Triple A, but clearly this is a massive step up in competition and we think the rookie will have a predictable letdown here. Look for Lester and the Cubs to take advantage. AAA Sports |
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04-25-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we think it’s a great opportunity to pull the trigger on a strategic run-line play. The Padres send Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 2.04 ERA) to the hill; the sixth year pro would strike out a career-high ten batters on Wednesday while allowing just an unearned run off four scattered hits and three walks in his team’s 8-2 win at Pittsburgh. Pomeranz now has 25 K’s over his first 17.2 innings of work. If his health holds up, clearly Pomeranz is on line for the best season of his career. On the other side of the coin is Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.91 ERA) who has struggled to open the season. Bumgarner is coming off his best outing so far this year, allowing two runs off five hits, to go along with eight K’s and one walk over seven innings vs. Arizona on Wednesday. Bumgarner’s inconsistent start warrants a closer monitoring and we’re unconvinced that he’s fully turned the corner yet. And that then leaves the door open for Pomeranz and the Friars today. Play on SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-23-16 | Cubs v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that these two starters are a lot closer to each other than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (3-0, 3.66 ERA) who is coming off a gem, striking out 11, walking one and allowing only four hits over seven shutout innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Monday. It was obviously his best start of the season, but note that the veteran struggled in this spot last year, going just 4-6 with an elevated 3.82 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Dan Straily (0-0, 2.70 ERA), who earned a no-decision vs. the Rockies on Monday despite throwing five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season. Straily would ultimately allow two hits while striking out four and walking two. The hard throwing right-hander has pitched well out of the bullpen, striking out eight over 8.1 innings of work thus far. We’re banking on Lackey to have a bit of a letdown here after his amazing outing, while we’re expecting Straily to build off his last start as he continues to fight for a permanent spot in the rotation. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances and in a contest which we see being decided late, we’ll lay the short price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-17-16 | Blazers +7 v. Clippers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* Opening Round RED DRAGON is on the Portland Trailblazers. The Clippers may have taken four of the five regular season contests from the Blazers this year, but we think the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Portland can score with anyone, it averaged 105.1 points on 45 percent shooting. It’s weakness is clearly on the defensive end where it allowed an average of 104.3. Damian Lillard leads the way for the Blazers with an average of 25.1 points and 6.8 assists, while CJ McCollum is averaging 20.8 points and 3.2 boards. LA averages 104.5 points on 46.5 percent shooting and gives up an average of 100.2 Chris Paul is the heart of the offense, he averages 19.5 points and ten assists, while Blake Griffin posted 21.4 points and 8.4 boards on average. Griffin though is still working his way back into game shape after missing most of the year with injury and suspension. And note that despite dropping four of five to the Clippers, the Blazers were very competitive, they enter this series having gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Los Angeles. We wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here, play on PORTLAND. AAA Sports |
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04-16-16 | Sharks v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. We stayed away of this series in Game 1, but think it’s a good time to pull the trigger on a big puck-line play. The Sharks managed to gut out the Game 1 victory, but we definitely look for the talented home side to do whatever it takes to win Game 2. San Jose has already accomplished what it wanted, getting a split in the opening two games means that it’s already rested the home ice advantage away from the Kings. We think LA wins this game, but not only wins, we look for it to win big, pulling away for at least a two goal victory. No need to overanalyze this one, all signs point to a lop-sided destruction as we look for the KINGS to risk life and limb. AAA Sports |
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04-16-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-90 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* Opening Round SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Raptors. Toronto’s best season in franchise history isn’t going to mean much if it doesn’t contend for the Eastern Conference crown. We’re expecting the home side to make the most of familiar surroundings and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It’s been back-to-back first round disappointment’s for Toronto, so we look for the home side to make Game 1 a statement. The Raptors were injured for most of the season last year, but are at 100% health heading into this year’s playoffs. Note that Toronto hasn’t lost more than two straight since mid-November: “I think we're in a better mental place," Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey assessed. "The confidence level is higher. Guys have accepted their roles much more. That's a huge difference. We're in a much better place defensively." This isn’t a matchup that favors the Pacers, evident by the fact that they dropped three of four in the season series. It’s also interesting to note that the Raptors shot an average of 35.3 free throws per game in four meetings with Indiana. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of TORONTO to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. AAA Sports |
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04-14-16 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we think Ervin Santana is primed to go deep into this one, while we feel his counterpart Mat Latos is primed for a letdown. Both starters are coming off very good opening day outings, but the fact that Santana excelled is not suprising, but that Latos did, was definitely a shock. Latos would throw six scoreless frames and struck out two while allowing only a single hit vs. the A’s on Thursday. It was his first win since last July. Latos had a horrible spring, giving up 15 earned runs in 13 Cactus League innings. And note that Latos was particularly terrible in this spot last year, going just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA in all day games. Santana was also impressive in his first start, though he didn’t factor into the decision, he’d give up six hits, two earned runs and two walks over six innigns in his team’s 4-3 loss to Kansas City on Friday. The veteran would strike out seven, which doesn’t immediately sound super impressive, until you factor in that it was against the Royals, one of the hardest teams in the majors to rack up any strike outs against. Santana would close 2015 on well after missing most of the campaign because of suspension. Note that Santana would post a respectable 3.43 ERA in all day games last year. We think the talent disrcepany on the mound today justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the possibility of the big payout. Play on MINNESOTA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-11-16 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 111 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we definitely feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The Reds send Brandon Finnegan to the mound, he allowed seven runs off six hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the White Sox on Saturday. Finnegan had a horrible spring, posting a 10.29 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, but somehow managed to earn a spot in the Reds’ depleted rotation. The home side counters with Jon Lester (1-0, 1.29 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings while strikingout four and walking no one in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. The veteran would induce 10 ground balls in his opening game, after posting his best ground ball rate in three years with the Cubs last season. Lay the 1.5 runs on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-16 | Warriors +5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Golden State Warriors. Records were made to be broken. The 1995 Chicago Bulls 72 game win streak remains in tact, but the Warriors can match that with a victory tonight. To do that though, they’ll have to battle history, as they’ve lost 32 straight regular season games in San Antonio, which is trying to set some records of its own, including becoming the only team in league history to remain undefeated on its home floor for an entire regular season. Golden State played and won 100-99 in Memphis last night, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson got caught looking ahead to this one as the two normally sharp outside shooters went a combined 5 of 24 from behind the arc. Suffice it to say, we don’t expect that type of shooting performance to happen two times in a row and in a contest of this magnitude. The Spurs come in off a loss to the Nuggets, but the entire starting line-up was given the night off, so while it’s true that San Antonio comes into this one well rested, we’ll point out that San Antonio has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going 18-20 ATS vs. teams with winning records and only 11-20 ATS in its last 31 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Warriors have dominated in for bettors all year, going 10-6 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. Grab as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on GOLDEN STATE. AAA Sports |
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04-07-16 | Raptors v. Hawks -6 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just just 15-16 ATS in its last 31 vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 17-10 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. The bottom line: Toronto is stuck in the No. 2 spot in the East, while Atlanta is still fighting for playoff position. Atlanta also plays with double revenge. Play on the HAWKS. AAA Sports |
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04-07-16 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. It’s the home opener for the Nationals and we think they’ll put on a show for the crowd today. This is the first game of seven straight at home for the Nationals, who plays three against the Fish, before four against the Braves. The Nats are coming off a pair of late-inning wins in Atlanta, including yeserday’s 3-1 victory. The Marlins come to town after losing both opening games at home to Detroit. Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 2 for 8 with a home run and struck out with the bases loaded to end yesterday’s 7-3 setback (we had the Tigers in that one). Note that the Marlins would drop seven of ten in the nation’s capital a year ago. Keep your eyes on Washington slugger Bryce Harper, who hit seven dingers and posted a 1.161 OPS vs. Miami last season. The visitors send out Adam Conley to the hill, who was decent last year and in spring training this season, going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 2015, before posting a 1.86 ERA in three spring starts, but who was shelled for three runs in five innings at Nationals Park on August 28th. The home side counters with Tanner Roark, who had an up and down season in 2015 and who didn’t have his best stuff vs. the Marlins either, but who has also looked extremely sharp in spring training, posting a tiny 2.00 ERA with 17K’s to three walks over 18 innings of work. We’re going to call the pitchers a “wash,” but give the Nationals’ line-up the big nod in this matchup, indeed making WASHINGTON on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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04-05-16 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 136 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on the Rockies as an underdog as we anticipated Zack Greinke to have a letdown on Opening Night for his new team. We think Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks bounce back after falling 10-5 on Monday. The Rockies dropped eight of ten in Arizona in 2015, but it’s interesting to note that Arizona lost its third straight opener. Miller received the worst run support in the majors playing with the Braves last year, but would go on to post a 3.02 ERA and 21 quality starts while earning his first All-Star appearance. The visitors counter with Chad Bettis, who was 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 20 starts last year. We’re giving Miller the big nod in this matchup. The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy plus money return. Play on ARIZONA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-03-16 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -203 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* OPENING DAY ROUT on the St. Louis Cardinals on the RUN LINE. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and as good as Liriano looked last year, Wainwright is once again primed for a Cy Young season and it all gets started on Sunday afternoon. The Cards won 100 games last year but were upset by the Cubs in the NLDS. St. Louis lost slugger Jason Heyward, but Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty are expected to fill void. And with Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter, along with the return of both Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta a little later in the month, the Cards once again sport a potent line-up. The Pirates also have a ton of talent obviously, with the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison who will be expected to shoulder the load after the team lost slugger Pedro Alvarez in the offseason. Francisco Liriano will get the opening day start with ace Gerrit Cole sidelined for a few more weeks. Liriano struggled against the Cards last year and in no way do we think he has the upper-hand in today’s matchup. In fact, we agree with the bookmakers here completely we’re going to call the starting pitchers a “wash.” Howeer, we’re going to give the nod to the Cards’ line-up and with an extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket, it makes this a price we can live with paying. Play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 95-51 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a deep team, but it also sports arguably the best player in the nation in Buddy Hield. Villanova held Hield to just 18 points in the game these two played earlier in the season, but the Sooners still won in a blowout. Hield was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in Oklahoma’s 80-68 win over Oregon, the Sooners shot 12 of 24 from 3- point land overall vs. the Ducks. What often goes overlooked is the Sooners’ great defensive play, which would hold Oregon to just 38.9 percent shooting and 4 of 21 from 3-point land. Oklahoma holds teams to 40.5 percent overall shooting and just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc. Note that Hield is averaging 29.3 points per game shooting almost 57 percent from the field. The Sooners held Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson to 1 of 16 from the 3-point range in the regular season beatdown. Villanova doesn’t have a bonafide super star like Hield, but instead gets the job done by committee. The Wildcats looked good defensively against KU, forcing 16 turnovers, but Villanova was just 4 of 18 from 3-point land. And that doesn’t bode well against the Sooners, who are among the best in defending the perimeter. Just like in last night’s CBI Game 3 finale, all signs point to another last-second nail-biting decision. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports |
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04-01-16 | Morehead State +4 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Morehead State. Morehead State took Game 1 86-83, while Nevada bounced back at home 77-68 in Game 2. Both games have been highly competitive and each has been decided in the waning moments. We’re expecting another very tightly contested affair, one where whoever has the ball in their hands last will likely be the victor. The Wolfpack may have the higher scoring offense on average, but the Eagles are better defensively. Looking at these two teams side by side, there truly is little difference. This is a great situational play in our opinion, in what will prove to be another nail-biter, grab as many points as you can with MOREHEAD STATE. AAA Sports |
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03-30-16 | Heat v. Lakers +10 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Lakers. The Heat sit 6.5 games ahead of ninth-place Chicago with nine left in the regular season. Miami comes to town off a 110-99 win over Brooklyn on Monday, the team’s 11th victory out of it last 15. This is the final match-up between Dwayne Wade and Kobe Bryant. The Lakers will be out to avenge seven-straight losses in the series, including a 101-88 setback on November 10th and to also atone for a listless 123-75 loss at Utah on Monday, matching the team’s worst setback in franchise history and most lopsided of Bryant’s career. The Lakers have a lot to play for now too, they’re in danger of finishing with the fewest wins in franchise history, needing to win five of their final eight games to surpass the 19 wins from the 1957-58 team. Note that Miami is just 10-11 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and only 10-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 6-3 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS. AAA Sports |
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03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Utah Jazz. Utah is coming together at the right time. It’s been very good defensively all season long, but it’s latest offensive performance has it thinking it could steal this game vs. the defending champions outright. The Jazz would make a franchise-best 17 3-pointers in a 123-75 destruction of the Lakers on Monday. Keep your eyes on Rodney Hood, who was eight of nine from behind the arc. The Jazz have averaged 10.7 3-pointers and have shot 40.4 precent from behind the arc during an 8-2 stretch which has earned it seventh in the Western Conference. Utah also plays with revenge here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Warriors this season. Golden State continues to roll, it’s coming off a 102-94 SU win and ATS loss vs. the Wizards just last night. Golden State’s energy and focus is surely starting to waiver at this point of the season and the weight of expectations continues to grow as the playoffs approach. It’s a perfect spot for the Jazz to take advantage of. All six of the Warriors’ losses this year have come in similar types of situations. And with five of its final eight games at home, it’s not too hard to imagine Golden State in some small way, looking ahead to that favorable season-ending schedule. Also note that Utah has been pretty effective in slowing down Steph Curry, holding him to an 18.0 scoring average and 39.1 field goal percentage for the series, his lowst mark vs. any team from the West. The Jazz have in fact been “lights-out” with their defensive play of late, giving up 88.2 points over their ten-game run, while just limiting the Lakers to just 30.6 percent shooting last time out. We think that UTAH comes to play tonight, grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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03-28-16 | Hawks v. Bulls +4 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Bulls. These two teams are moving in opposite directions, but as we always say: “desperation breeds motivation!” We think the value has swung back onto the hungry Bulls in this one. Chicago will be looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of Atlanta, while also delaying the Hawks playoff spot, who would clinch one with a victory tonight. The Bulls are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, sitting in ninth position: “I don't think anybody's quit," Chicago’s star guard Jimmy Butler said last night. "We've just hit adversity at the wrong time and we've got to fix it. It better carry over from in this locker room out to the court. That's the only way to get this thing fixed." And with seven of their next eight game vs. likely playoff bound clubs, tonight’s contest takes on added importance for the home side. For all intents and purposes, this has become a “do-or-die” game for the Bulls tonight. Note that Atlanta is just 3-4 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Chicago is 5-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the BULLS. AAA Sports |
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03-27-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Clippers. Denver has won three of four, while LA has dropped three of four. The Nuggets come in off a 116-105 win over the Lakers on Friday in which their bench scored a road season-high 71 points on 57.4 percent shooting. Suffice it to say, we’re not expecting lightning to strike twice for Denver tonight. Although the teams have split a pair of games this season, LA does play with revenge after a listless 87-81 setback last time out (note that it was the Nuggets first win in the last five in the series). LA does come in with a bit of momentum as well after it broke its three-game slide with a hard-fought 96-94 home win over Portland on Thursday. LA will also be eager to get back on track in front of the home town crowd, the team was 30-11 in friendly confines last year, but is 23-12 so far this season: "I think we've had a nice year on the road," coach Doc Rivers said, "but I don't think we've had a nice year at home.” Note that Denver is just 16-17 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 8-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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03-26-16 | Villanova +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. Both teams have steamrolled their ways into the Elite 8, but Villanova has looked like the more complete units on both ends of the floor and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the Wildcats to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Villanova ended up trouncing Miami 92-69 in the Sweet 16, while Kansas pulled away for a 77-63 victory over Maryland. The Wildcats average a few less points than the Jayhawks on the year (Villanova posts 77.9 PPG, while Kansas comes in a 82 PPG). Defensively though, Villanova has the upper hand, allowing just 63.8 PPG, ranking it 15th in the nation, compared to Kansas’ 67.9 points per game allowed, ranked 75th in the country. The Wildcats have turned up offensive pressure of late though, they’ve averaged 86 points or more in their three games in the NCAA Tourney and combined with their clearly superior defensive unit, all signs do indeed point to VILLANOVA as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-26-16 | Cavs -7 v. Knicks | Top | 107-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Cavaliers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in five of its last six games, including in two straight, while New York is just 5-7 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and only 8-9 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: This line has dropped since we took it (we have -8.5), but regardless, we still love this selection and are predicting a complete blowout. Cleveland comes in off a few shaky efforts, but gets back into the winners circle with a decisive effort over the lowly Knicks. Play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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03-25-16 | Indiana +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Indiana. Indiana is no joke, after destroying Chattanooga 99-74 in the opening round, it would go on to beat Kentucky 73-67 in the second. The Hoosiers have answered the call all year, after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but coming up short in the conference tournament, the team has responded big time and we fully expect this momentum to get carried over here. The Hoosiers are tough and they’re well balanced and are able to keep pace on both ends of the floor with anyone in the country. We think UNC is going to be in for a shock today in Indiana’s ability to take full control of a game and to dictate the pace at both ends of the court. UNC smashed FGCU and then hammered Providence 85-66 in the second round. UNC’s hopes rest on the shoulders of arguably the countries best frontcourt in Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson. The Tar Heels like to push the pace of the game, but they are not going to be able to outrun the talented Hoosiers today and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for INDIANA to at the very least take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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03-24-16 | Duke +3 v. Oregon | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. The Blue Devils come into this one battle tested and ready to shock the No. 1 seeded Ducks. While we obviously wouldn’t be surprised by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for Duke to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Duke beat No. 13 UNC-Wilmington 93-85 and the 12-seed Yale Bulldogs 71-64. Grayson Allen leads a team which averages 81.5 PPG on 46.1 percent shooting. The Blue Deivls are pretty average defensively though, allowing 72.2 PPG. The Ducks seem vulnerable in this spot and ripe for the picking. Oregon rolled over Holy Cross, 91-52 in its opener, but then was in a fight for its life in an eventual 69-64 win over St. Joe’s on Sunday. The Ducks average 78.9 PPG and allow 68.5. Duke averages nearly 3-points per game more and has looked much better defensively since the start of this Tournament. It’s hard to imagine Oregon matching pace down the stretch the way it played against St. Joseph’s. As we stated off the top, we wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here, but we’re going to grab the points. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. The 27-7 Miami Hurricanes get ready to battle with 31-5 Villanova. The Wildcats defeated UNC Asheville by a score of 86-56 in their opener, followed by an 87-68 victory over Iowa, while Miami beat Buffalo by a score of 79-72 and Wichita State by a score of 65-57. Villanova looked dominant in both games, Josh Hart led the way in the win over the Hawkeyes with 19 points and four boards. Villanova finished the regular seaosn by winning five of its last six games, with the only setback coming to Seton Hall in the Big East Conference Championship. The Wildcats average 77 points per game while giving up just 63.7. Miami’s last loss was to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes average 75.6 points and give up 66.8 per. Villanova averages more PPG and gives up less. The Wildcats also enjoy a rebounding advantage. Villanova has excelled in its first two games, while Miami gave up a monster lead in its win over the Shockers, holding on for dear life at the end. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WILDCATS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-23-16 | Grand Canyon +3.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* CIT QUARTERFINAL SIDE OF THE YEAR on Grand Canyon. The 27-6 Grand Canyon Antelopes meet with the 20-11 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the CIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for these two evenly matched teams to take this one right down to the wire. The Antelopes come into this one off a 78-74 win over South Carolina State and a 65-54 victory over Jackson State. Grand Canyon comes in with momentum, it ended the regular season by winning six of its last eight games and finished tied for second in the WAC standings, but was unable to play in the conference tournament due to it transition to Division 1 status. The Antelopes can put the rock in the hole with the best of them, averaging 76.8 PPG, while giving up just 68.6. The Chanticleers enter the Quarterfinal round off of a 65-57 win over Mercer and a 71-62 victory over New Hampshire. Coastal Carolina averages 74.7 points while giving up only 67.3 per contest. We simply feel that Grand Canyon has traveled a much harder road to this point and is the more tested and that in the end this experience will nullify any advantage that the Chanticleers may have had on their own floor. Play on the ANTELOPES. AAA Sports |
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03-22-16 | Creighton v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on BYU. Creighton beat Alabama 72-54 in the first round and Wagner 87-54 in the second, while BYU beat UAB 97-79 in the first round, before then outlasting Virginia Tech in a slim victory in the second. So far it’s been a cake-walk for the Blue Jays, but clearly the talent level across the board goes up significantly now in facing the Cougars. Creighton’s defensive numbers have been impressive through the first two rounds, allowing only 54 points in both games, but don’t read too much into that. BYU is eighth in the country in scoring offense at 83.7 PPG, shooting 46.4 percent as a team and is in an entirely different league than either Alabama or Wagner. The Blue Jays also average quite a bit, at 79.6 PPG, ranking them 32nd in the country. We’re going with battle tested BYU in this one though, which has faced tougher teams than Creighton to get to this point. The Cougars average a few more points and give up the same amount, but also enjoy a significant edge on the glass. That’s good enough for us, play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | St. Joe's v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon. St. Joes is coming off a thrilling 78-76 win over Cincinnati on Friday and has been a nice story to this point, but we think the Hawks run comes to an end tonight vs. No. 1 seeded Oregon. The Ducks come into the round of 32 after destroying Holy Cross 91-52. The Hawks average 77.3 PPG and give up 69.8. Oregon averages 78.8 PPG game and give up just 69.1. Also note that Oregon is 4th in the country in blocks with 5.91 per contest. The key factor for us though is that the Ducks’ starters were all rested in their opening destruction of Holy Cross, while St. Joe’s had to battle tooth and nail down to the final second for its victory. Oregon has the superior depth and averages more points. A bunch of different factors do indeed point to the DUCKS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | Florida v. Ohio State -1 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio State. Florida would bounce back from a SEC Tournament loss at the hands of Texas A&M to beat North Florida 97-68 on Tuesday. We had the Gators in that one. Florida though was middling on the road this year, while Ohio State was dominant at home. We simply can’t state how important we feel that home floor advantage will be in this one. The Buckeyes got past Akron on Tuesday, thanks in large part to 18 points from a trio of players in Kam Williams, Marc Loving and Jaquan Lyle. Ohio State made 21 of 23 free-throw attemps as well. Florida’s offense looked decent against the Ospreys, but consistency from game to game on that end of the court has been the Gators achilles heel all year long. Not to mention that scoring on North Florida is one thing, while scoring against this talented Ohio State team is quite another. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value. Play on the BUCKEYES. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -7 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia. We think No. 9 seeded Butler comes to the end of the road in the Tournament as the bigger and deeper No. 1 seeded Cavaliers find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Kellen Dunham had 23 points in 31 mintues in the Bulldogs’ 71-61 win over Texas Tech in the First Round. Butler averages 80.3 PPG and shoots 46.6 percent as a team, but where the Bulldogs fall short is on the defensive end, giving up 70.8 PPG. Virginia annihilated Hampton 81-45 in its opening round game, shooting over 55 percent, including a 12/25 showing from behind the arc. The Cavs looked sharp on the defensive end as well, holding Hampton to just 30 percent shooting. The Cavs shoot 48.7 percent as a team and are ranked No. 1 in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 59.2 PPG off 42.1 percent shooting. Butler is clearly a good team, but the CAVALIERS are on an entirely different level and we think their smothering defense will prove to be just too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Yale v. Duke -5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. No. 12 Yale would beat No. 5 Baylor 79-75 on Thursday as a 5.5 point underdog. Obviously the Bulldogs have to be loving life right now, not only did they get the big upset win in the first round, but it’s the first ever NCAA Tournament win for the team, which is making its first appearance in 52 years. Can anyone say classic letdown spot? The Blue Devils advanced with a less than inspiring 94-85 win over UNC Wilmington on Thursday, unable to cover the 9.5 point spread (we had Wilmington in that one). But now Duke is in the right place at the right time, we think sophomore Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram are going to have big nights vs. the overmatched Bulldogs. And if history is any precednece, then Duke has to be loving its chances today as it’s 5-0 ATS its last five vs. the Ivy League, while Yale is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the ACC. These teams actually played on November 25th at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Blue Devils would pull away for the convincing 80-61 win. We think an even bigger blowout is in the cards. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Wagner +15 v. Creighton | Top | 54-87 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
This is a SECOND ROUND NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Wagner. Wagner comes into the second round with momentum and we believe the team will carry it over into this one. The Seahawks upset St. Bonaventure in their first round matchup, while Creighton cruised to an 18 point win over Alabama. Wagner’s victory was significant because many thought the Bonnies should have fact been invited to the Big Dance, but instead they’d receive a No. 1 seed in the NIT. The Seahawks won by four, led by Romone Saunders off the bench with 21 points, seven boards and four assists. The Blue Jays finished 9-9 in the BIg East and was led by Maurice Watson Jr., who averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 assists and 3.4 boards per game. The Seahawks continue to go underrated by their opposition and by the bookmakers and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we’ll point out that Wagner is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 12.5 to 15 points range. We think Creighton comes in a bit complacent here and that WAGNER takes this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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03-18-16 | Michigan +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. So far we’ve had a ton of success playing on or against Michigan during the tournaments. First we were on the Wolverines in their conference upset over Indiana. Then we went against Michigan in its semi-finals loss to Purdue. We then were back on the Wolverines in their First Four victory over Tulsa. Now we’ll look to continue that success. Michigan comes in battle tested and ready to prove itself again and we think it can catch ND off-guard and at the very least, expect it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rest invariably leads to rust and Notre Dame hasn’t played in over a week when it was last seen losing to North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney. Michigan averages 38 percent from behind the 3-point line, but uncharacteristically struggled against Tulsa. The Wolverines looked great defensively though and we think are going to be able to slow down this ND attack (note that Michigan allows just 67.3 PPG). The Irish shoot 36.9 percent from behind the arc, but they allow teams to shoot 37.6 from 3-point range. That does not bode well vs. MICHIGAN. Look for the WOLVERINES to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 43-47 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* OPENING ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin. Wisconsin interim coach Greg Gard made the most of his opportunity after Bo Ryan stepped away, directing the Badgers back to another Big Dance. Gard has had his interim label removed and he’ll now be looking to make a deep run into the tournament. Pittsburgh may have finished 21-11 overall, but the Panthers would struggle down the stretch of their season and would lose to eventual ACC Tourney Champ UNC in the quarterinal of that event. Pittsburgh enters having dropped four of its last six. The Badgers closed the season strong after a 9-9 start to finish 20-12 overall. Gard has continued Ryan’s schemes, especially on the defensive end where WIsconsin allows opponents to score the ball at a rate of 95.3 points per 100 possessions, which is ranked 24th in the country. So not only are the Panthers struggling with consistency right now, the numbers aren’t working in their favor either as they’re an amazingly bad 0-9 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is playing with better chemistry right now and the combination of Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes will be too much for Pittsburgh to handle in the paint, play on the BADGERS. AAA Sports |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Vanderbilt. One thing you can’t teach is “size.” The Shockers will have to contend with a major size discrepancy today and its a matchup factor which we feel will be too much for them to overcome. Vanderbilt has two 7-footers in its line-up, keep your eyes on 7-0 center Damian Jones, who was named to the SEC’s first team for averaging over 14 PPG on 60 percent shooting. The Commodores also lean on 7-1 junior Luke Kornet (7.2 PPG), who averages three blocks per contest. Wichita State was devastated by injuries earlier in the year and while its shown flashes this season, consistency from game-to-game has been a major issue. After a lacklustre 5-5 start, the Shockers would then win 19 of 21 before falling to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. Not only will Wichita State have to deal with trying to match-up against the much larger Commodores, but it’ll also be playing for the first time in ten days. Vanderbilt last played on Thursday. Rest invariably leads to rust and we definitely expect this to be a major factor as well once the final buzzer sounds. And it’s as simple as that for us. Vanderbilt has two distinct advantages working in its favor in this matchup and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on VANDERBILT. AAA Sports |
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03-15-16 | Florida -7.5 v. North Florida | Top | 97-68 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida. Florida did not make it to the NCAA tournament, but it wasn’t a shocker at all, the team knew that it would be excluded as the SEC conference is simply stacked from top to bottom with eight schools finishing with 19 or more victories. The Gators have earned the No. 2 seed in the NIT and won’t be disappointed in being relegated to the “lesser” tournament, instead we expect them to try and dominate this event. Florida would eventually fall 72-66 to Texas A&M last Thursday in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators average 73.6 poitns and allow just 68.6. We think the Gators’ tough defensive play will be too much for the North Florida Osprey to overcome today. North Florida is surely still feeling “shell shocked” after going into the 2016 Atlantic Sun Tournament as the No. 1 seed, only to then get destroyed by eventual tournament winner Florida Gulf Coast by a score of 89-56. The Osprey shot just 31 percent on the night and were out-rebounded by 49-24. The Osprey do average 84.8 PPG, but allow 79 (note that North Florida is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points). In every respect, Florida is the better team today and in our professional opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the GATORS. AAA Sports |
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03-14-16 | Pelicans +15 v. Warriors | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on scheduling: Running out of gas yet?: The Warriors continue to get the job done, they come into this one having won four straight and nine of their last ten, but there’s no question that the team has to be feeling a bit tired at this point of the season. With the playoffs on the horizon, at some point it’s not too hard to imagine the Warriors to start to have a bit of a mental letdown. And with the lowly Knicks on deck after the 24-41 Pelicans tonight, before a grueling road trip which starts next week in Dallas and at San Antonio, it’s definitely not to hard to imagine the team getting caught looking past this “vanilla” stretch to the much more important part of their schedule next week. The bottom line: We feel it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on this “situational” selection, grab as many points as you can with the PELICANS. AAA Sports |
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03-13-16 | Purdue v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Michigan State. We had Michigan in its upset over Indiana and then took Purdue to take care of the Wolverines. Michigan State lost to Purdue 82-81 in OT on February 9th and will be out to avenge that setback, while also cementing a No. 1 seed in The Tournament. Purdue used its size and defense to eventually pull away from the Wolverines, but those strengths will both be negated today by MSU’s superior defensive pressure. MSU would hold the Terps to just 33.3 percent shooting in its 64-61 win over Maryland on Saturday. In fact, not only does Michigan State rank first in three-point shooting percentage (43.5), second in field goal defense (37.7), but it’s also 13th in three-point shooting defense (30.4 percent). Note that the underdog is just 2-5 ATS the last seven in this series, while MSU is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 following a SU victory. Deadly from the outside and among the best in the country on the defensive end, combined with the revenge factor from the regular season loss does indeed make MICHIGAN STATE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. Purdue is too big, too talented and too deep for Michigan, which has won back-to-back games to advantace to the semifinals. Michigan was on the bubble heading into the tournament and needed at least two victories to ensure its spot in the Big Dance. The Wolverines got those two victories and can now take the foot off the gas. The Boilermakers on the other hand have much bigger plans and an exit at this point would be considered a major letdown. In their win over the Illini, the Boilermakers’ 89 points were their second most in a Big Ten Tournament game in school history. Purdue has now shot over 50.0 percent from the floor in five straight games and over 55.0 percent in three straight. We think it’s also important to point out that Purdue’s bench outscored Illinois’ by a 42-to-8 margin. Michigan has been a great story, but we think has a predictable “hangover” in this spot. No need to overanalyze this one, we expect the BOILERMAKERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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03-11-16 | Michigan +6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan. It’s a quick turnaround for the Wolverines after they held on for a 72-70 OT win over Northwestern yesterday. Michigan has a lot to play for here, as it’ll be out to avenge an earlier loss to Indiana in which it clawed its way back from a 21-point deficit in the second half, only to have their effort fall short. The Wolverines also need one more win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance: “We gotta rest right now,” said Michigan coach John Beilein. “We gotta rest and get ready for tomorrow. We’ll have shoot around time here — we won’t use it — we’ll just walk and talk and watch clips of the Indiana game, as well as watch for similarities between this game and what Indiana will do.” Indiana has four players scoring in double figures, but will a five-day layoff be detrimental here? Rest invariably leads to rust, we think the Wolverines can actually use this to their benefit today and catch the Hoosiers a little flat footed out of the gate. One player to keep your eyes on is Michigan junior forward Zak Irvin, who had eight boards while also scoring the Wolverines’ winning jumper yesterday. Note that Michgian is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Indiana is just 4-5 ATS in the same position. While we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the WOLVERINES to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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03-08-16 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. NC State | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Both teams are terrible: Wake Forest finished 11-19, while NC State was 15-16. The Demon Deacons lost three in a row and 14 of 15, but looked decent in their 79-71 loss at Duke in the regular season finale. The Wolfpack dropped three of their last four, most recently getting crushed 89-75 at Notre Dame last weekend. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. They met twice in the regular season and Wake would win 77-74 at home on January 10th, before NC State returned the favor in a 99-88 shootout on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Wake Forest is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing on a neutral court and 4-1 ATS in its last six when playing with five or six days rest, while NC State is just 1-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 1-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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03-07-16 | Pepperdine v. St. Mary's -7.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* WCC Tourney GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Mary’s. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Double revenge scenario: The Pepperdine Waves would beat San Francisco to advance to the WCC Quarter-Finals and were the only team to defeat the Gaels twice in the regular season. It’s payback time. Defensive number discrepancies: These teams nearly average the same amount of points on the offensive end (St. Mary’s averages 74.7, while Pepperdine averages 73.7), but the Gaels only give up an average of 60 PPG, while the Waves give up an average of 70.9. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the double revenge factor along with these massive number mismatches does indeed make SAINT MARY’S the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-05-16 | Louisville +5 v. Virginia | Top | 46-68 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Louisville. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: Here’s another great revenge scenario as the Cardinals would fall 63-47 to Virginia on January 30th. Louisville enters the final game of the regular season with plenty of momentum, winning four of its last five, including a 56-53 over Georgia Tech last time out. ATS statistics: Note that Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a loss by 14 points or more vs. a conference opponent, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back covers vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: These teams are separated by just a single game in the standings, an all out war is in the cards, so in a contest which we envision coming down to whoever has the final possession, we’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on LOUISVILLE. AAA Sports |
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03-05-16 | California v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of different factors: Revenge: I played on Arizona State in its game vs. Stanford on Thursday and it would break a four game losing streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Cardinal. Here’s another revenge situation vs. California as the Sun Devils fell 75-70 on January 21st to the Golden Bears. Classic letdown spot: After winning seven straight, Cal finally had a letdown in a 64-61 loss to Arizona last time out, a team which now sits two games ahead of it with one to play. The motivation factor is low for the Golden Bears right now. ATS statistics: Note that Cal is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss following a five game or more unbeaten streak, while ASU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. a Pac-12 opponent. The bottom line: In a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |