Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-06-21 | Florida State -7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State appears to be the class of the ACC this season and can wrap up its second consecutive regular season crown with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday. This should prove not that difficult as the Fighting Irish have lost four games in a row. While three of those were on the road, the last one occurred right here in South Bend and it was by double digits to North Carolina State. Also concerning is that it was the fourth time in the last six games where the Irish gave up at least 80 points. FSU is one of the best offensive teams in the country, not just the best in the ACC. The Seminoles are averaging basically 80 points/game and they just hung 93 on Boston College in a blowout win Wednesday. That’s the same BC team that put up 94 on ND in a recent upset win. While three of the ‘Noles four losses have come on the road, those were all to GOOD teams. Even with senior M.J. Walker listed as questionable, they should be fine considering eight other players are averaging at least 14 minutes per game for one of the deepest teams in all of College Basketball. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Ducks v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO -1.5 Anaheim is in a terrible way right now, having lost eight straight games. While the last five losses have all been by one goal, don’t look for this matchup with Colorado to be even remotely close. The Avalanche are one of the best teams in the NHL. They won 4-0 on Wednesday at San Jose, which was their second 4-goal victory in the last seven days. Now Nathan MacKinnon did leave with a head injury Wednesday night. The hope is that he can play here. But even if he sits, we think the Avs roll in this one. Only one team has scored fewer goals than the Ducks. That would be New Jersey, who has scored one fewer and has played four fewer games. The Avs have won 14 of 20 against teams that have a win % below .400. Over its last six games, Anaheim has allowed an average of 4.0 goals/game. They’ve been close recently, but all those one goal losses can take a toll. Our view is they will get blown out tonight. Play on COLORADO -1.5 AAA |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +2 v. Appalachian State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LITTLE ROCK Despite struggling mightily down the stretch, we think Little Rock is the better team here in this first round Sun Belt Tournament matchup. It’s not as if Appalachian State is playing any better. While Little Rock may be just 1-7 SU its last eight games, App State is 1-6 SU in their last seven. The difference is Little Rock is coming off a win, 69-59 against Louisiana, last Saturday. It was not a good year at the betting window for the Trojans (6-16 ATS), a clear sign of underachieving. Turning the basketball over too much has been a problem. But the team’s defensive numbers have steadily improved throughout conference play and they’ve got a big advantage in that regard in this particular matchup. Appalachian State allows its opponents an effective FG% of 52.3 and to shoot 52.6% on two-point attempts. Both are the highest marks in the Sun Belt. We find it very interesting that the Mountaineers have been bet to favoritism tonight as they’ve lost the game outright the last four times they’ve been chalk. There were no regular season meetings this year, but Little Rock did sweep a season ago. Play on LITTLE ROCK AAA |
|||||||
03-05-21 | UAB v. North Texas -5.5 | Top | 65-51 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS These teams are jockeying for position in Conference USA’s West Division. Though they have different records, UAB and North Texas are technically tied for second in the division, one game behind LA Tech (whose regular season is done). So if either team sweeps this weekend (they play again tomorrow), then they move into a first place tie. Adding to the level of motivation here is the fact both teams are off losses. They’d each been hot prior to suffering those defeats. UAB was the victim of some hot shooting against UTEP last Saturday as they gave up 96 points. The loss dropped the Blazers to 3-4 SU L7 games after they’d won six in a row. North Texas lost by 1 at Marshall on Saturday, but still covered and is on a 4-game ATS win streak and as well as 8-2 SU L10 games. We’re siding with the home team tonight. It’s not just that the Mean Green have an 8-1 SU record here in Denton. They are winning by an average of 22.6 points/game! UAB is not a good three-point shooting team while North Texas shoots an incredible 44.6% from behind the arc at home. Lay the short number! Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
03-04-21 | UTEP v. Kansas -18 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas floundered a bit in January and as a result took a rare tumble out of the Top 25. But by punctuating a 7-2 February with a win over Baylor, there is no denying that Bill Self’s team is now peaking at the right time. The number of points per possession they’ve allowed over the last five games is the best defensive stretch by any team this year against “high-major teams.” Strangely, KU will close its regular season with a non-conference game against UTEP. The Miners probably regret adding this game to the schedule as they’ve got little chance of winning. While they’ve won four-straight Conference USA games, Florida International and Charlotte are not in the same class as Kansas. Having run the Big 12 gauntlet, this will be the easiest opponent the Jayhawks have played in a LONG time. UTEP isn’t a good road team. Earlier in the year, they lost by 30 at North Texas. Yikes. Play on KANSAS AAA |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas Tech | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Texas Tech has seemingly put a three-game losing streak behind them. The Red Raiders have gone 2-0 over the last five days, beating Texas 68-59 and TCU 69-49. They covered the spread in both of those wins and now are ranked #18 in the country. They’ve got a big game on deck, at Baylor on Sunday. But first they’ve got to round out the home portion of the schedule as Iowa State pays a visit to Lubbock tonight. It has been a tough year for the team from Ames. They have not won a single Big 12 game all season (0-16!) and haven’t tasted victory since before Christmas. But they’ve been close many times. They only lost by five at Baylor on Feb 23 and then by four against TCU on Saturday. A game vs. Texas on Tuesday was a 14-point loss. Since the beginning of February, half of the Cyclones' losses have been by seven points or fewer. So they are competing. We expect them to compete tonight in what should be a “flat spot” for a Texas Tech team that’s only 5-10 ATS in Big 12 games. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Warriors -1 v. Blazers | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Clemson +2.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 54-64 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON This will be Syracuse’s final regular season game. Clemson has one more, at home vs Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Tigers are on a five-game win streak, one of those coming against Syracuse as they beat them 78-61 as a three-point favorite in Death Valley on Feb 6th. The team’s last two wins have come against the bottom teams in the ACC, Wake Forest and Miami. They looked especially impressive against Wake, on the road, winning that one 60-39. Clemson continues to be one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranking 11th in efficiency. Syracuse just outlasted North Carolina 72-70 on Monday, but they are at a disadvantage here playing their second game in three days. Clemson last played Saturday. In the first half of the first meeting, Syracuse made only three field goals. So they are familiar with the Tigers’ defensive prowess. The Carrier Dome will not be enough for the Orange to overcome a tough opponent today. They are just 2-5 ATS this season coming off an ACC win. Clemson wants that double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Within one week, Michigan State pulled three consecutive upsets, two of them coming against top 5 teams (Ohio St, Illinois). However, the schedule finally appeared to catch up with them on Sunday when they fell behind Maryland 11-0 on their way to a 73-55 road loss. The Spartans have largely been overrated by the oddsmakers much of the season. They are 7-16 ATS and that record was obviously a lot worse before the three straight upsets. The first of the three upsets was not against a top 5 team, it was against Indiana. Sparty won that game in Bloomington 78-71 as a 6.5-point underdog. But they are not an underdog this time. This is a problem because as a favorite, MSU is a disastrous 2-11 ATS. Just how much the line has shifted for this rematch is a bit perplexing to us. Indiana badly needs this win to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They’ve lost three in a row and their second leading scorer is out. So that’s probably why the home team is favored in this one. But we’ve still got the Hoosiers rated as the better team and home court advantage doesn’t mean all that much. Grab the points. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Hawks +4 v. Heat | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Baylor -4 v. West Virginia | Top | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR For the first time all year, we’ve got Baylor coming off a loss. The Bears went down at Kansas on Saturday, losing 71-58 as a 4.5 point favorite. It was only their second game since a 21-day absence due to COVID. Quite frankly, the #3 ranked team in the country has not looked good in either game. They could barely beat the last place team in the Big 12, Iowa State, in the first game back. Tonight they have to head to Morgantown to face West Virginia, who is ranked #6 in the latest AP Poll. We think it was probably unfair to drop Baylor a spot based on one loss, though that move was pretty predictable. West Virginia is good, but we just don’t think they are the sixth best team in the country. They are 0-3 vs. top five opponents this season. They did win by 22 on Saturday, but that was vs. Kansas State. Baylor had its worst offensive game of the season against Kansas and was outrebounded pretty badly as well. But we expect the shots to start falling again and them to resemble the team that looked so dominant pre-layoff. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Nuggets -5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER AAA |
|||||||
03-01-21 | North Carolina -2 v. Syracuse | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina invades the Carrier Dome Monday night, looking to build off its impressive upset of #11 Florida State over the weekend. Now the Tar Heels have struggled on their travels this season, failing to cover seven of nine games while winning just three straight up. But Syracuse is reeling. The Orange dropped two road games last week and allowed 169 points to Duke and Georgia Tech. They had their doors blown off in the Duke game as they trailed 52-34 at halftime. They allowed another 50-point half Saturday in Atlanta, though this time it was the second. We know UNC can score (82.3 PPG L4) and they should have no problem doing so tonight. It was an 81-75 win for the Tar Heels when these teams played in Chapel Hill on January 12th, even though it was a poor shooting night. This is a team that probably deserves to finish in the top four in the ACC. We see their rebounding edge as the difference maker tonight. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Iowa +4.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA This is some tough scheduling for Iowa, who just had to go to Michigan (lost 79-57) and now must travel to face another Top 10 opponent, Ohio State. But let’s not forget the fact that the Hawkeyes are a Top 10 team themselves despite being only 5-5 their last 10 games. Ohio State is not just off one loss, but two, as they lost to Michigan last Sunday and then Michigan State on Thursday. This is a revenge game for Iowa as they lost by four at home to the Buckeyes last month. Both teams are dealing with injuries, so look for Iowa to lean heavily on Player of the Year candidate Luke Garza, who averages 24.3 points/game. He had only 16 against Michigan on what was a bad shooting night for the Naismith Finalist. He’ll bounce back here. OSU is a better matchup for Iowa than most other Big 10 teams. Neither of these two are all that great defensively, which should play right into the hands of the Hawkeyes, who are top five in the country in scoring. They did lead at the half in the first meeting before letting things slip away. Not this time. Play on IOWA AAA |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Clippers +2 v. Bucks | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLIPPERS It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
|||||||
02-28-21 | Memphis -4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS While it may be “too little, too late” (to get into the NCAA Tournament), Memphis is making a late run at things. Penny Hardaway’s team has won seven of its last eight (only loss by 2 points) and four straight to get to 13-6 on the year. The Tigers are also 7-1 ATS their last eight after being 0-7 ATS their previous seven games. Today they are locking horns with Cincinnati, who has won six of its last seven. So we’ve got two relatively “hot” teams here, yet the one playing on the road is the favorite. That should tell you “all you need to know” about this one. The Bearcats are 0-9 ATS their last nine Sunday games including a 38-point loss at Houston last week. Before they beat Tulane 91-71 on Friday, Cincy’s previous five wins were all by three points or less, so they’ve been lucky. Memphis is #2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency as it is holding opponents to 26.6% shooting - for the year - on three-point attempts. The Bearcats third leading scorer David DeJulius just opted out for the rest of the season. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
|||||||
02-27-21 | Alabama -6 v. Mississippi State | Top | 64-59 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ALABAMA Alabama is off a loss here. While no team ever WANTS to be in that situation, it always seems to motivate the Crimson Tide. They’ve yet to lose back to back times this season. While the last time they found themselves off a defeat, they managed to only win by three (at South Carolina), we think they’ll do better today at Miss State. The Tide beat this team by eight in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. Miss State has turned in two straight wins, but they are just 5-6 SU L11 games and have basically been playing the bottom of the SEC recently. Bama is at the top and today is their second chance to clinch the regular season title outright. They failed Wednesday at Arkansas, but that was a hot team they were facing there. Still, the Tide did lead by six in the second half before falling apart down the stretch and committing a ton of fouls. A -35 disadvantage at the charity stripe certainly helps explain a 13-point loss. Miss State is 1-6 ATS off its previous seven straight up wins. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
|||||||
02-27-21 | LSU v. Arkansas -4.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Unquestionably, Arkansas is the hottest team in the SEC right now. The Razorbacks have won their last eight conference games and now sit in second place, 2.5 games back of the team they just beat, Alabama. It was 81-66 on Wednesday here in Fayetteville, a game where we cashed the Under. Though the Under did hit (thanks to Bama scoring only 28 points in the second half), it was the third time in the last four games where the Hogs finished with more than 80 points. Today is a legit revenge game for them as they lost down in Baton Rouge to LSU 92-76 last month. Though they too can score, LSU has been having major defensive issues since they beat Arkansas. In seven of the nine games since, they’ve allowed at least 76 points. In three of the last four, they allowed 80 or more. They sit at 153rd in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among the top 60 teams in the country in the KenPom ratings. The Tigers just lost 91-78 at Georgia on Tuesday and this certainly does not feel like the game where they’ll get the defensive issues fixed. Arkansas is 12-4 ATS as a favorite. Plato n ARKANSAS AAA |
|||||||
02-26-21 | UL - Lafayette +2 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 66-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UL Lafayette Arkansas Little Rock shouldn’t be favored here as they’ve lost six in a row while also going 0-6 ATS. Louisiana has the most efficient offense in the Sun Belt Conference and has averaged 82 points while winning its last two games. Arkansas Little Rock’s combination of shooting the ball so poorly from behind the three-point line (31.8% for the year) and turning it over too much (23 times last game) is really starting to catch up with them. They are 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year (5-15 ATS overall), so again we just don’t get this line even if the game is being played in Little Rock. Louisiana is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. When the teams met twice earlier in the year in Lafayette, each won once. But Arkansas Little Rock’s win came in overtime and saw them have to come back from a significant deficit. Take the hotter team in this one. Play on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AAA |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Bucks | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
02-25-21 | USC v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado hosts USC tonight in a crucial clash as it tries to stay alive in the Pac 12 race. Saturday saw the Buffaloes prevail 61-57 against Oregon State. While it was an ATS loss, they’re probably just happy to be done with a four-game road trip that saw them go just 2-2 straight up. Now CU gets to play a home game for the first time in 17 days. The last one was a 78-49 win (over Oregon State) and the Buffaloes are 8-1 in Boulder this year, scoring 80.1 points/game while allowing an average of only 61.4. They host USC, who happens to be in first place in the conference. But Colorado already beat the Trojans once this year, 72-62 as a 3.5-point underdog, and that was obviously out in Southern California. Even more impressive is the fact the Buffaloes have won five in a row over the Trojans. They’re 4-1 ATS in those five wins as well. Despite being unranked Colorado is the favorite here. USC is #19 in the polls. Too many bettors get “caught up” in what the pollsters have to say. But we believe Colorado is the better team in this matchup. They showed it once and are certainly capable of showing it again at home. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Western Kentucky v. Houston -11.5 | Top | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON It was last Thursday when we decided to fade Houston at Wichita State and sure enough the 6th ranked (at the time) Cougars were upset there, losing 68-63. They had a nice bounce back from that game though, clobbering Cincinnati on Sunday by the score of 90-52. So they come into tonight’s game with Western Kentucky ranked #12 in the nation. It’s notable that this is another home game. All three times the Cougars have lost this season, it has been on the road. They are 12-0 at home. They average 81.0 points/game here and give up only 54.2. The more interesting thing about this matchup is that it’s a rare non-conference game late in the regular season. It’s the reality of the season we’re living in as WKU is trying to add games to its schedule to make up for all the cancellations. While they come in riding a six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have not faced a team anywhere near as good as Houston in Conference USA. They’ve been off for 12 days and played just two games - both vs. Rice - in the month of February. We’d say they are “ill-prepared” to deal with this massive jump up in class. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Florida State -11 v. Miami-FL | Top | 88-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 10* on FLORIDA STATE So it’s Florida State that’s battling Virginia for that top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles have played three fewer games than the Cavaliers and are ahead on percentage points with a 9-2 SU league record. They’re up to #11 in the rankings after winning not just three in a row, but also eight of the last nine games. Their ATS record in those nine games is a solid 6-2-1. Five of the wins during that time have been by at least 13 points and one of the most lopsided was 81-59 at Miami, who the Noles face again on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are having a terrible 2020-21 season as they’ve lost seven of eight. The only win was by two against Duke. This slide is a direct result of being one of the most short-handed teams in the country right now. Only five scholarship players finished the last game, which was a 27-point home loss to Georgia Tech. They trailed by 30 at halftime. FSU is one of the deepest teams in the country and got 33 points from its bench in Saturday’s win over Pitt. They should have zero difficulty blowing out Miami for a second time this year. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Wolves v. Bulls -4 | Top | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
02-24-21 | NC State v. Virginia -11.5 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia got upset by Duke over the weekend and has dropped to #15 in the country. But an ACC regular season crown is still in play for the Hoos and we think they’ll bounce back tonight in a major way. They face North Carolina State, who is really no match. Compounding problems for the Wolfpack is that this is their third straight away game. While they’ve won the first two, those wins came against Pitt and Wake Forest, who are two of the conference’s lesser teams. Virginia is 10-0 at home and those 10 wins are by 16.8 points per game. The Cavaliers aren’t just off one loss here, they’ve lost two straight as they also fell at Florida State last Monday. They were 15-3 SU before that and we see a “shut down” defensive effort coming tonight. Virginia is top seven in the country in points/game allowed and only gives up 57.2 here at home. They already won in Raleigh this season and held NC State to just 57 in that game. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
|||||||
02-23-21 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Prairie View A&M -16.5 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M Prairie View A&M is one of two teams with a 7-0 record in SWAC play, Jackson State being the other. The Panthers have a shot to reclaim first place all for themselves tonight when they host conference lightweight Arkansas Pine Bluff. This should be an easy win for the Panthers, who already defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff by 17 on the road earlier in the season. Arkansas Pine Bluff has now lost nine in a row and is coming off two straight games that they could have won (lost by a total of three points). The Golden Lions may very well be spent and it’s going to take a lot to compete Tuesday night. Our guess is that they simply don’t have enough “left in the tank,” even though they’ve been off for 10 days. They lost in OT to Southern and the game before that they blew a sizable second half lead at Alabama A&M. Prairie View A&M is on fire right now as not only are they 7-0 straight up vs. conference opponents, they are also 7-0 against the spread! The seven wins have been by an average of 17.7 points/game. Arkansas Pine Bluff is getting outscored by 24.5 points/game on the road where it is 1-14. Play on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M AAA |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Alabama A&M -1 v. Alcorn State | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Alabama A&M We’re going DEEP into tonight’s College card to uncover a winner. This is the SWAC, a league where two teams have no conference losses. These are neither of those two teams. Alabama A&M is 6-3 this season (4-3 in conference), but coming off a 72-58 loss at Alabama State nine days ago. Nine days ago is also the last time Alcorn State played, although they won 70-56 against Miss Valley State and snapped a three-game losing streak. Miss Valley State is a terrible team, maybe the worst in the country. They account for half of Alcorn State’s four victories this year and another was against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, the second worst team in the SWAC. We relish this opportunity to go against the Braves here. Play on Alabama A&M AAA |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Nets +6 v. Clippers | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Valparaiso +1 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a *10* on VALPO Not a lot of scoring or winning from either of these two MVC sides recently. But Valparaiso did just turn in an impressive effort in defeat, losing by just two at first place Loyola Chicago. While they’ve got just two wins in the last eight games, two of the Crusaders' six losses have been by three points or fewer. They’re a game up on Southern Illinois, who has just three wins in its last 12 games and two of those were by a total of three points. So we’ll ride the better team Sunday as they should build off that impressive showing against Loyola. Additionally, Valpo performed quite well against the league’s other top team, Drake, beating them by 17 points back on Super Bowl Sunday after only losing by three the previous day. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, has suffered three double digit losses in the past 11 days. SIU has been missing its leading scorer for almost two months, which helps explain the downturn. They’ve averaged only 55 points the last four games. Play on VALPARAISO AAA |
|||||||
02-21-21 | Michigan -1 v. Ohio State | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN These rival schools did not get a chance to meet on the football field in the fall. But I think we all know how that would have gone. Now it’s time for the basketball programs to collide and while maybe it’s not as big of a deal nationally, the matchup itself is SO MUCH better. These are two of the top four teams in the country (per the polls) meeting Sunday in Columbus. Michigan has returned from its near three-week pause to win back to back games, 67-59 over Wisconsin and 71-64 over Rutgers. The Wolverines only have one loss all season and that was at Minnesota last month. Ohio State being near the top of the rankings is a bit more surprising. The Buckeyes have won at Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, which is very impressive. They too lost at Minnesota, but also have three other defeats, two vs. Purdue and one at Northwestern. We like Michigan in this one. They are the only team besides Gonzaga and Baylor (both undefeated) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State ranks only 62nd in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
|||||||
02-20-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Murray State -16.5 | Top | 62-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MURRAY STATE Everyone is chasing Belmont in the Ohio Valley and neither of these teams will be catching the Bruins, who are 17-0 in conference play. SIU Edwardsville is 8-13 overall and 6-9 vs the OVC. They’ve lost three in a row, all in a blowout fashion. The three losses have been by a combined 71 points, all by 20 or more and the worst was at home, 86-57 vs. the team they visit today, Murray State. The Racers are 9-8 vs. the OVC and 12-10 overall. That’s a disappointing mark for a squad that’s been favored in the vast majority of its games. Thursday was an ugly 68-59 home loss at the hands of Eastern Illinois. Murray State was a 15-point favorite in that one and the loss snapped a four-game run where every win was by 12 or more points. At home, the Racers are averaging 83.6 points/game while giving up only 65.2. SIU Edwardsville just does not rise up as a big underdog. They’re 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more and 4-12 ATS their last 16. Play on MURRAY STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEX TECH We believe Texas Tech is the better team here and aren’t afraid of them having to go to Lawrence. While it’s a 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS run here for the Red Raiders, this isn’t your typical season when it comes to home court advantage. Kansas has won and covered its last four games, but the last three have seen them take on Iowa State twice and Kansas State. Those are easily the two worst teams the Big 12 has to offer. This is also a revenge game for Texas Tech as they were beaten 58-57 by KU in Lubbock back in December. It was a horrible shooting night for the Red Raiders, who finished at just 32.3%. They have had LOTS of time to prepare for this rematch as the last time they played was 11 days ago vs. West Virginia. That was another loss, so you can bet there will be no shortage of motivation here. Just not convinced that Kansas is all that good this year. Yes, they beat Texas Tech and have strung together four straight wins. But we expect the Red Raiders to shoot better than they did in the first meeting and they won’t be as sloppy as recent Jayhawks’ opponents either. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Not sure at all why this line has come DOWN. Alabama, who just extended the contract of coach Nate Oats through the 2026-27 season, is the best team in the SEC this season. Vanderbilt is almost certainly the worst. We realize Vandy has been a little more competitive of late, going 5-0-1 ATS its last six games, but Bama won by 33 last Saturday and has had an entire week off as Thursday’s game vs. Texas A&M was postponed due to weather. The Crimson Tide are 10-1 in Tuscaloosa this season, winning by about 16 points per game. Five players were in double figures as they routed Georgia 115-82 last Saturday. Four of them average at least 10 PPG for the season. But while the Tide can score, it’s their defense that is largely responsible for them being ranked #8 in the country. They are second nationally in defensive efficiency and allow just 28.5% shooting from 3-point range, which is 9th best. The Commodores are severely outmatched in this one - at both ends of the floor. Alabama is 25-12 ATS after a game where it scored 80 or more points. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
|||||||
02-19-21 | California Baptist v. Grand Canyon -11 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GRAND CANYON Grand Canyon, who is a PERFECT 6-0 in the WAC, should have no problem staying unbeaten in conference play tonight as they are set to host Cal Baptist for the first of two games this weekend. The Antelopes haven’t played a single game in February, but their 8-1 home record speaks for itself. In those nine games, they have scored 25 more points/game than they have allowed. They are really solid at both ends of the floor. Can’t say the same for Cal Baptist, who is allowing 85 points/game when they hit the road. They were torched for 97 in their last road game, which was at New Mexico State. Last weekend saw the Lancers split a couple home games with Sacramento State despite being favored in both. All six Grand Canyon home games that have had a line attached, they have covered. Cal Baptist has just one road victory and is not a threat to win here. Play on GRAND CANYON AAA |
|||||||
02-19-21 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State +1.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA STATE North Dakota State is coming off a loss, their second in the last three games. Both losses saw them come into the game favored. The Bison are still tied for the Summit League lead at 9-3 mind you, and haven’t played in nearly two weeks. It was a subpar effort defensively the last time we saw them, which is rare given they allow only 63.9 points/game at home. They’ll be tested here by a South Dakota State team that is averaging more than 80 points/game. This rivalry has been closely contested the last couple seasons with the last four meetings decided by a total of 10 points. We think it’s a real “steal” getting points with the home team. South Dakota State hasn’t been sharp defensively this year, at least on the road where they give up 77.3 points/game. As an underdog, North Dakota State is 4-1 ATS this year. They are also 2-0 ATS playing with seven or more days rest. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Suns -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI AAA |
|||||||
02-18-21 | BYU -5.5 v. Pacific | Top | 80-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU BYU already holds a win over Pacific this season. They beat them 95-87 in Provo last month. The 11.5-point spread proved too high to cover though as it was a double overtime game. That’s one of several reasons why the spread is shorter the second time around. You’ve also got to factor in the change in home court “advantage” (though Pacific doesn’t exactly have a strong one and this is a unique time in sports where being at home matters less) and that BYU lost its last game. But that loss was to #1 Gonzaga, so again we’re not going to go about penalizing the Cougars. They are definitely the better team here and should win by at least the same margin they did last time vs. Pacific, only this time in regulation. Pacific has dropped five of its previous six games and allowed 80 or more points in all five losses. The one win came against a dreadful Portland team. BYU has had 10 days to prepare since the loss to Gonzaga as their last two games got cancelled. They are simply stronger than Pacific at both ends of the floor and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight road games. Play on BYU AAA |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Houston v. Wichita State +7.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WICHITA STATE #6 Houston rolls into Wichita Thursday night to face a team they’ve already beaten by seven earlier in the year. But that was at home and Wichita State led that game by six points at half. It took a furious second half rally (16-0 run) from the Cougars to win that game. While three back in the win column, the Shockers have the same number of conference losses (2) as Houston. So a win here could make the conference race very interesting down the stretch. WSU has won nine straight home games vs. AAC opponents and four in a row overall. All four wins were close and though they haven’t covered a spread in a game since January 13th (0-5 ATS L5), we don’t need to worry about winning by any kind of margin tonight. Both teams have dealt with multiple postponements recently and thus are coming off eight-day layoffs. With the Shockers’ strong home record, we think they are a little underrated here, likely due to the 0-5 ATS mark their last five games. They’ve been pretty good as an underdog, including 7-3-1 ATS L11 times at home. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Pacers -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 134-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana’s woes continued on Monday as they lost in overtime to Chicago. It was their seventh loss in the last 10 games and the fifth time in those 10 games they lost as a favorite. They were down 11 in the fourth quarter Monday. But tonight it's a welcome reprieve for the Pacers as they face Minnesota, who just played last night. The Timberwolves lost 112-104 to the Lakers (no Anthony Davis) Tuesday. They too have dropped seven of their last 10 games. But while Indiana is still fifth in the Eastern Conference with the same streak, Minnesota is last in the Western Conference. A case can be made that they are the league’s weakest overall team, so we won’t hesitate to lay such a short number tonight as Indiana is on a 13-4-1 ATS run in the road favorite role. Another interesting trend here is that the T’wolves are 3-7 ATS when their five starters collectively played for more than 160 minutes the previous game. They combined for 161 last night. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago -20.5 | Top | 52-54 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Loyola Chicago Loyola Chicago remains ranked even after splitting two games vs. Drake over the weekend. They are also still in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 13-2 record as they are two up on Drake in the win column. Walking away with a split against the second best team in the league is not all that bad when you think about it, especially since the loss was in overtime and both games were on the road. At home, the Ramblers are a perfect 10-0 this season. Tonight they host a Valparaiso team that simply cannot hang with them. Valpo just lost by 14 at Northern Iowa Sunday and this is their third straight game on the road (they did win at N Iowa Sat). The road has seen the Crusaders average just 62.3 points/game this year. They lost twice at Evansville, but most concerning of all is what happened the last time they faced Loyola. At home, they were destroyed 75-39. The game was never close as Loyola led 37-16 at halftime. When Valpo loses, it’s often by double digits. Earlier this month, they fell by 24 at home to Bradley. This one will get ugly in a hurry. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
02-17-21 | NC-Greensboro v. VMI +4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VMI VMI is looking to play spoiler here and also win back to back games for the first time since a three-game win streak before Christmas. In conference play, it’s basically been “win one, lose one” for the Keydets by the KEY here is their perfect 8-0 ATS home record. They are 10-1 SU in games played here in Lexington City this season as opposed to 1-9 SU on the road. They have not gotten to play two straight at home since last month when they faced Wofford and The Citadel consecutively. It was then VMI did suffer its lone home defeat of the season. But it was by only two points to Wofford. The Keydets have four losses by three points or less this year, so their overall record could easily be a lot better. The team they are hosting tonight, UNC Greensboro, has won 9 of 10 and leads the SoCon with a 10-3 record. But tonight will be the second straight road game for the Spartans. The last time they were in this situation (last Monday), they lost at Furman. Saturday was a narrow escape for them as they won by only three at Mercer. Since VMI is so tough to beat at home, we will definitely take the points in this one. Play on VMI AAA |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Raptors +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 124-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Two years ago, these teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that series, the Raptors pulled off what was considered an “upset” and went on to win their 1st NBA Championship. Milwaukee has been the top seed in the East each of the last two years, yet hasn’t even advanced to a NBA Finals. They are currently in second place and just ended a six-game road trip with three consecutive losses. Losing to Utah and by one to Phoenix is excusable, however falling as an 11-point favorite to Oklahoma City (which is what Milwaukee did on Sunday) is not. They return home Tuesday, but the first home game following a long road trip always seems to be a tough spot, especially when returning from the West Coast. Toronto is off its own embarrassing loss (to Minnesota), so they’ve got something to play for. The Raptors had won five of six before dropping two straight. They also have revenge tonight for a seven-point loss last month. The initial line movement for this game definitely looks to be of the sharper variety. Take the points in this one. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Florida v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARKANSAS Arkansas, now ranked (#24), will look for its fourth straight win Tuesday night as they host Florida. The Razorbacks had an impressive road win Saturday at #10 Missouri, a game that went to overtime. They also won in Kentucky last week, by a single point. Things were much easier the last time the Razorbacks played at home. They downed Mississippi State 61-45. That’s the kind of score we should expect here as the Hogs are 12-1 in Fayetteville this season. They are averaging 84.4 points at home while giving up only 63.1. Florida is playing its first game in nearly two weeks as they’ve had three postponements in February. Their season has been severely disrupted by COVID as there was another 2+ gap between games in December. There’s also the matter of Keyontae Johnson collapsing on the court due to a heart issue back in December. So the Gators have never truly been able to get into any kind of real “rhythm” this season. Arkansas is playing its best ball of the season right now and has won six straight SEC games. With Florida allowing 77 points/game on the road, the Razorbacks get our vote of confidence tonight. Florida lost at home to South Carolina the last time it played. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
|||||||
02-15-21 | Hawks -2 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Hawks desperately need a win tonight. They have lost three straight and six of seven. This losing streak has dropped them into ninth place in the East, even though they can still claim to have scored more points than they’ve allowed this season. The Knicks actually have a better record than the Hawks (two up in the win column) as they are coming off wins over Washington and Houston. They won those games by a combined 40 points! But be wary of a team that still only averages 103.4 points/game. The 121 the Knicks scored against the Rockets were their most since the third game of the season. Center Mitchell Robinson broke his hand Friday, which is a significant injury for this team. Atlanta really collapsed defensively against Indiana Saturday night, but we don’t see that happening again tonight. Plus Trae Young is going to have a better shooting night here than he did vs. the Pacers (he didn’t even attempt a single three-pointer in that game). Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the LAKERS The Lakers fell behind 22-2 at the start Friday night. But over the course of the final three quarters, they battled back and ended up winning fairly comfortably against Memphis, 115-105. They even covered the 8.5-point spread! They can ill-afford a similar start tonight in Denver but it’s fair to say we won’t see anything like the start vs. Memphis. The Lakers have won seven in a row, the most convincing of which was a 114-93 game vs. the Nuggets out in LA. Incredibly that was a game the Lakers trailed by 12 at halftime. It may not end up being as big of a blowout tonight, but it doesn’t have to be and again, we stress the fact the Lakers WILL get off to a better start. Denver has won two straight after losing four of five, but those wins were vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets had their own poor start as they fell behind by 19. The Lakers can’t let the Jazz get too far ahead in the fight for first in the Western Conference. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Michigan +1.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN When Michigan played Wisconsin on January 12th, it was a 77-54 blowout in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines actually lost their next game, 75-57 at Minnesota, which is their ONLY loss this season. They then responded with a pair of victories, 87-63 against Maryland and 70-53 at Purdue. Then COVID hit. That win over Purdue was all the way back on January 22nd, so it’s been more than three weeks since the Wolverines took the floor. Will they be rusty? Maybe. But we don’t think enough has changed in three weeks for Wisconsin to completely reverse what happened the first time. The Badgers are just 3-3 their last six games and the wins have been against middle of the pack or bottom teams in the Big 10. They lost by double digits to both Ohio State and Illinois, two of the conference’s top tier teams. Michigan, ranked #3 in the entire country, is obviously in that top tier. They led by as many as 40 in the first game with Wisconsin. They’re at full strength. Don’t see them losing. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Rockets -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 99-121 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The two that were on the road did not go well at all as they were beaten by a combined 54 points at Charlotte and New Orleans. Thursday they lost at home to Miami. But we look for the Rockets to blast off tonight in New York as the Knicks are in the second game of a back to back and off a win. They beat the Wizards 109-91 Friday night, a win which came on the road. Having to now head home without any rest in between games is a tough spot for a team we still don’t think is very good, even though it is 12-15, a more competitive record than expected. The Rockets had a 13-point lead Thursday and could be shorthanded here, but we still like them as they’d won seven of eight before this four-game slide. The Knicks have failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve played a back to back. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | South Alabama v. Troy State +2 | Top | 58-51 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TROY In-state rivals meet for the second time this year as Troy hosts South Alabama. The Jaguars won the first time, 73-70, however it was the Trojans leaving with the cash as six-point underdogs. They are underdogs again here, but only slightly at home. That first meeting was Thursday, by the way. Troy may be at the bottom of the Sun Belt’s East Division, but they are really good at home with a 7-1 record and they are allowing 59.9 points/game. They’re just a much better team here plus they are 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss. When off a conference loss, the Trojans are 5-1 ATS this season. South Alabama has a losing road record and is just 2-5 ATS when playing with only one day of rest between games. The Jaguars have won five in a row, but the last four have all been decided by six points or less. It would seem they are due for a loss and Troy is going to be desperate to end a five-game losing streak in this rivalry. Play on TROY AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Mercer +1.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MERCER Mercer hosts the top team in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro, on Saturday. The Bears are looking to win their third in a row after two overtime victories against Samford earlier in the week. The first of those was a 2OT game, however Mercer hardly ever trailed in that game and never faced a deficit larger than three points. They did need to come from behind to win on the road Wednesday. But at home the Bears’ record is 7-2 and this is a team that can score (80.9 points/game at home), something you can’t always say about UNC Greensboro. The Spartans were able to earn a split with Furman earlier in the week, but scored only 49 points in the loss, which was on the road. That’s their only loss in the last nine games, but this team is not dominant and we don’t think they’re the best team in the SoCon even though they are in first place. These teams’ overall records aren’t all that different. The first time they played was closer than it looked as Mercer failed to make a basket in the final three minutes. Play on MERCER AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | TCU v. Texas -12 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas may be on a 5-game ATS slide, but we still believe the Longhorns are one of the better teams in the entire country. After losing three straight times on the court, they finally got back into the win column Tuesday with an 80-77 win at Kansas State. That one was closer than it should have been as Texas made a season-high 13 three pointers. Kansas State hadn’t stayed within single digits of anybody in the Big 12 since January 2nd. Both of the ‘Horns’ wins since Jan 9 have come against Kansas State but two of the losses have been by a total of three points. That Shaka Smart’s team has lost three of four in Austin should have them motivated today. TCU has won two in a row, both by three points, but is one of the conference’s poorer teams. This is their first Big 12 win streak of any kind since starting 3-0 last year and they’d lost five in a row prior to the two wins. Leading scorer Mike Mills has been out with a non-COVID related illness. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -13 | Top | 85-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE So Florida State has been off for a couple weeks. The 17th ranked ‘Noles last played on 1/30 when they were upset 76-65 in Atlanta by Georgia Tech. So they should be ready to go here in Tallahassee vs. Wake Forest, who comes in with just a single road win on the year and a 3-8 ACC record. Things have gotten better recently for the Demon Deacons as those three ACC wins have come over the course of the last five games, plus they are 6-1 ATS L7. But they are outclassed here and playing their third consecutive road game. Earlier this week is when they picked up that lone road win, beating Boston College 69-65 as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston College is the last place team in the ACC this year. What are the chances Wake can win two in a row? Obviously, very small. Now FSU has a spread to worry about here, but they are 9-1 at home and winning by an average of 13.6 points/game already. They’ve won the last three times they’ve played Wake Forest, who could be shorthanded here. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in ACC play. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Cavs v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 110-129 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND While Portland upset Philadelphia last night, we do not see them suffering any kind of letdown in the second night of a back to back against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been really lousy of late, losing seven of the last eight. They were just beaten by THIRTY EIGHT points in Denver on Wednesday. It was the fifth loss by 18 or more points since January 29th. You’re looking at a team that has the worst point differential among Eastern Conference teams, so it’s just a matter of time before the Cavs are at/near last place in the standings. The only team in the league with a worse power rating is Minnesota. Portland is 5th in the Western Conference and has to be feeling good about itself following the result last night. They have won four of the last five games and two straight at home. Cleveland let Denver make 60% of its field goal attempts, so the Blazers should have a big game offensively. The Cavs are also getting outscored by 12.6 points/game on the road, so we have zero hesitation about laying such a short number. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2 | Top | 130-143 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS We say it’s “time” for the Mavericks to actually cover a game! They are just 1-10 ATS L11, but have won the last three straight up, all three wins coming by five points or less. Those three wins were against Golden State, Minnesota and Atlanta. Against Atlanta Wednesday night, they had to rally back from a 13-point deficit. It’s a real small number that the Mavs are being asked to lay tonight as the Pelicans pay a visit to Dallas. The Pelicans just dropped a game in Chicago, 129-116, which snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak. Neither of these teams are among the top eight in the Western Conference and both are two games below .500. So it would “seem” to be a fairly even matchup. However, Dallas has grossly underachieved to this point and in our estimation is due to improve its record. They are just 2-10 ATS at home. How long can they continue to sport such a poor covering rate? New Orleans is pretty atrocious at defending the 3-point line, giving up an average of 16 threes per game. They just let Chicago make 25! This has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Mavericks, who won all four matchups last season. Play on DALLAS AAA |
|||||||
02-12-21 | Oakland v. Robert Morris +1.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ROBERT MORRIS Robert Morris’ first season in the Horizon League is not going all that well as the Colonials are just 2-9 in conference play. Last weekend was just brutal as they lost two overtime games to Youngstown State. Had they won one (or both), perhaps more people would be looking at them differently coming into this next game. But we’re cool with it. They should be able to defeat Oakland at home Friday. The Golden Grizzlies are coming off their own painful set of results last weekend as they lost twice to first place Cleveland State. Something to note is that three of Oakland’s eight wins this season have been over Detroit. They are just 5-15 otherwise. Two of the other five were against IPFW, who isn’t any good either. Now certainly we can’t call Robert Morris “good,” but with six of their nine Horizon League losses coming by six points or less, it’s fair to say they’ve been unlucky. They deserve a better record and should get the win here. Play on ROBERT MORRIS AAA |
|||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Philadelphia continues to lead the Eastern Conference with an 18-7 record. Their lead has now grown to two games with Milwaukee losing at Phoenix last night. The Sixers have won six of their last seven games and tonight finds them getting an opportunity to avenge that one loss as they travel to Portland. The Blazers beat them 121-105 last Thursday and that was in Philly. The Blazers were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the upset despite not even having Damian Lillard in the lineup! They also didn’t have CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. What they did have is six players score 14 or more points and a third quarter where they outscored the 76ers 40-19. Lillard will be in the lineup tonight and the game is in Portland where the Blazers just won 106-97 over Orlando Tuesday night. Philly had to rally late to win at Sacramento that same night and you’re going to want to take the points here. This spread is pretty similar to that Sixers-Kings game, which seems ridiculous on the surface as Portland is better than Sacramento. The Blazers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread the last five meetings. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
02-11-21 | Pacers -3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana, despite losing four in a row, is still in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is at the bottom with a 6-18 record for the season. The Pistons did win Tuesday, over the team that just beat the Pacers last night (Brooklyn). But we’re looking at this as a classic buy low spot on the favorite. While it’s been a rough month so far, the Pacers have played a number of good teams. It’s been awhile since they faced anyone in the same class as Detroit, a team they have actually not faced since the end of 2019! This should be a welcome matchup. Indiana was -24 in free throw attempts compared to Brooklyn last night, a big reason they lost. A big reason why the Pistons beat the Nets is that they were an uncharacteristically hot 56 percent from the floor. This is a team that shoots just 43.3% for the season. Indiana’s starters had only 51 points last night and the team shot 39.1% overall. Again, it’s all about the “buy low” as the Pacers are a better team than the Pistons and should be laying a larger number. Detroit is 0-5 after a win this year. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +0.5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS Missouri may be ranked #10 in the country coming into this game, but they are slight underdogs to Ole Miss. Now we were very happy to see the Tigers deliver a 68-65 upset of Alabama over the weekend. They were a big play for us in that game. But it was very concerning how they almost blew all of a 22-point lead and nearly lost, despite the opposition shooting very poorly. Speaking of poor shooting, Missouri hit only 3 of its 20 three-point shots in that game. They’ll take the win, their third in a row, but all of them have been by five points or less and were at home. This is the Tigers’ first time hitting the road since a loss to Auburn on January 26th. They venture into a gym where visitors are averaging only 59.7 points/game. So it’s likely to be another rough shooting night. Over the course of its last six games, Ole Miss has beaten all three teams that have beaten Missouri this season. They held Tennessee to only 50 points in a win here in Oxford last week. Then they went to Auburn and won a high-scoring game in overtime Saturday. Play on MISSISSIPPI AAA |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Gonzaga -10.5 v. BYU | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA BYU has scored 200 combined points in their last two games. They are getting double digits at home tonight. The question as to whom the Cougars are facing tonight can only have one answer: Gonzaga. The top ranked Zags are 18-0 and have beaten BYU already by 17 points. Actually that score is misleading. They led by as many as 32 in the second half. Gonzaga not only has the nation’s longest active win streak (22 games), but the last 15 have all been decided by double digits. Only one team (West Virginia) this season has been able to stay within 12 of them. After a less than stellar effort in the last game (still won by 18 over Pacific), look for the Zags to come out and make a statement Monday night. Saturday’s game vs. Santa Clara was postponed so that’s extra time they’ve had to stew over the fact they actually trailed Pacific at the half Thursday. BYU’s last five games have all been against Pacific, Pepperdine or Portland, all of whom are horrible and offer little in the way of preparation for what they’ll face here. With only one win by less than 12 points this year (and it was the third game), we will gladly lay the points with the #1 team in the country tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
|||||||
02-08-21 | Wizards +3 v. Bulls | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Wizards HAVE to be better than this, right? Their 5-15 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference and yesterday’s 119-97 loss at Charlotte was just plain embarrassing. Tonight they try and dust themselves off in Chicago against a Bulls team they’ve already lost to twice this season, both times at home. Those games took place right before the new year and were relatively close. Washington was also a six and seven point favorite in them. This will actually be the Bulls sixth straight game being favored, which is pretty rare. But all those lines have been three points or less and they’re only 2-3. The Wizards have the NBA’s leading scorer in Bradley Beal (33.3 PPG) and are a lock to improve upon Sunday’s atrocious 9 of 40 shooting from three-point range. The Bulls are only 3-7 at home and 2-5 their last seven games overall. We think the road team is better, so it makes sense to grab them as underdogs. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 287 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City is the favorite to win Super Bowl 55, but perhaps you’ve heard that the sportsbooks have more “liability” on Tampa Bay winning here. Once they acquired Tom Brady, the Buccaneers were quite the popular bet to win it all. Now here they are facing last year’s SB champs. The favored team has won 35 of the previous 54 Super Bowls and are 3-1 ATS the last four (and 2-0 ATS L2). The AFC team has won and covered five of the last six. Now none of this guarantees the Chiefs will repeat. Nor does the fact Patrick Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS in his career when he’s NOT a double digit favorite. But, to us, all signs point to the Chiefs winning and covering this game. They already beat the Bucs once this season, 27-24, back on November 29th. They didn’t cover, but this spread is now lower. Also that regular season score is a little misleading. Kansas City led 17-0 after one quarter and 27-10 going into the fourth. They put up 543 yards on this Bucs defense, which now has two injured safeties coming out of the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs might only be 8-10 ATS this season, but they are 5-0 ATS when the spread is three points or less. Andy Reid is 18-9 ATS in his head coaching career when he has at least 13 days between games. Tampa Bay’s last two wins have seen them heavily rely on turnovers. The Chiefs offense averaged almost seven yards per play in the AFC Championship Game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield +3.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FAIRFIELD It’s been awhile since we last saw either of these teams. It’s been a two-week absence for Quinnipiac since they defeated Niagara 78-69. For Fairfield, it’s been three weeks since they last played and upset Marist 55-52. Looking at the MAAC standings, you’ll find these two at the bottom. Quinnipiac has just two conference wins while Fairfield has three. Our side is technically in last with seven losses, but Quinnipiac has zero road wins this season and they are on the road today. The Bobcats have lost twice in true road games (both were at Monmouth) and are 0-2 in neutral court games. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14 on the road. That Quinnipiac is laying points on the road here is very rare and would seem to make for a nice opportunity to fade. Though it’s been three weeks, Fairfield was excellent defensively in their last game as they’d allowed only 39 points with just over seven minutes remaining. The Stags are 20-8 ATS their last 28 games as a home underdog. Play on FAIRFIELD AAA |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Jazz v. Pacers +5 | Top | 103-95 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Utah is unquestionably the hottest team in the league right now as they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. Making the run all the more impressive is the fact all but one of those victories has been by double digits. The one single-digit win happened to be against the team that also beat them last Sunday, Denver. With the best overall record in the Western Conference right now, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves. But I view this game as a potential “slip up” as Indiana has got to turn things around. The Pacers have lost two straight and four of five. The last loss was close as they were beaten 114-113 by New Orleans here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Remember that earlier in the week the Pacers did snap Memphis’ seven-game win streak with an emphatic 134-116 win at home. So there’s a precedent for beating a red-hot team.The Pacers are 5-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. They were -1.5 vs. New Orleans. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Warriors +4 v. Mavs | Top | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors crushed the Mavs on Thursday, winning 147-116. It was the second night of a back to back for Dallas, but that’s still no excuse to be beaten THAT badly, especially since Golden State had just nine players available for that game. Something is just not right with the Mavs, who have now dropped seven of their last eight. The lone victory during that stretch came in Atlanta, the night before getting destroyed by the Warriors. Golden State has yet to win (or lose) three in a row this season. But they have won back to back games five times. In fact, all 10 wins have “come in pairs.” So by that trend, they “should” win tonight. We’ll grab the points just to “be careful,” but it’s certainly difficult to look past what happened the other night and think this will be anything other than an outright win. Dallas is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. They are also just 1-7 against the spread their last eight games. The Warriors were our 10* Game of the Month last Saturday when they blew out the Pistons. They are our top choice again for this week. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Texas Tech -16 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH The Big 12 is so tough this year (six teams are in the top 25). So if you are one of those top teams, you’ve got to take full advantage when you're faced with one of the conference’s couple lightweights. That’s the situation #13 Texas Tech finds itself in today as they get set to take on Kansas State. The Red Raiders are only 5-4 SU vs. the rest of the Big 12, which has them in 6th. But you should expect them to move up the standings after today’s tilt in Manhattan. Kansas State is really bad as they’ve now lost nine in a row. Most of the games haven’t been close either as the Wildcats’ ATS record is 4-13 including 0-5 L5. They are 1-10 ATS at home. The last four Big 12 games for KSU have resulted in losses by 23, 48, 22 and 26 points. They did actually stay within 11 of Texas Tech last month in Lubbock. But that was before the “bottom dropped out” on the season. The Wildcats’ have the second most starts in the country by true freshman and injuries/COVID have really taken hold of the roster. The last five games have seen Kansas State average 53.6 points. Texas Tech should keep them around that number and cover easily. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -20 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOYOLA CHICAGO Two teams stand above the rest this year in the Missouri Valley. They are #25 Drake and Loyola Chicago. Though the former is ranked and undefeated, our view (and the view of most in the College Basketball community) is that Loyola is better. The Ramblers can prove that NEXT weekend when they’ll play two at Drake, but for now they get a pair of games vs. Evansville. This should be a guaranteed two wins this weekend for the Ramblers. It’s a big number Saturday, but we’ll lay it considering that Loyola is 12-3 ATS in all games this season, including 12-1 when favored and 6-0 at home. Last weekend, they won by 26 and 20 at Missouri State. They’re winning their home games by a margin of 28.5 points/game. None of their previous eight opponents have reached 60 points as this is one of the premier defensive teams in the country. That’s bad news for an Evansville squad averaging only 64 points on the road this season. The Purple Aces have just one road win and aren’t going to be competitive here. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Alabama v. Missouri +3 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON MISSOURI These are the two top teams in the SEC, but right now there’s a huge gap between Alabama and everybody else. The Crimson Tide moved to 10-0 in conference play with another convincing win against LSU earlier this week. Looking across the country, you’re not going to find many teams that have a 10-0 record in their conference. But this is a stiff test for Bama as they head to Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers just took care of Kentucky on Wednesday to move to 12-3 overall this season. While G Pickett got injured vs. Kentucky, the Tigers have four double digit scorers that can more than account for his possible absence. Remember that last weekend Alabama lost to an Oklahoma team that didn’t have its leading scorer. Missouri has lost just once at home this season and that was to Tennessee. Alabama was picked to finish 10th (in the SEC!) in the preseason poll and we don’t see them going undefeated. This looks to be their toughest remaining game. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Celtics +5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston is playing its third straight game on the West Coast and they hope it goes more like the first one than the second. They started this trip by defeating the Warriors 111-107 as a 2-point favorite. The following night they lost 116-111 at Sacramento (were favored by 1 pt). Tonight they are an underdog at the Clippers, who have won all but two of their previous 13 games. They are tied with the Lakers (17-6) for 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Utah by one-half game. Boston is 4th in the East. Key here is the Celtics are 5-3 ATS as underdogs with four outright wins. Coming off a long road trip, the Clips may be prone to a letdown in this situation and it’s a decent number they are laying to a good team. They are only 4-5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-8-1 ATS off a win. They don’t have point guard Patrick Beverely in this contest and we can’t see them shooting as well from three tonight as they did against Cleveland. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
02-05-21 | UC-Davis v. CS-Northridge +2.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CS NORTHRIDGE Prior to the last two weeks, Cal Davis had gotten only four games in all season and all four were prior to December 5th. They are just 1-3 since returning to action and lost twice at home last weekend to UCSB. Therefore, it’s hard for us to believe they are laying points on the road here. Cal State Northridge is by no means a good team, but the Matadors have at least been playing regularly enough to have a rhythm coming into this Friday night matchup. They are 6-7 and off a 64-51 win at Cal Poly last Saturday. One thing to like about this team is that it doesn’t turn the ball over much. Their turnover rate is second lowest among Big West teams. Cal Davis has yet to cover as a favorite this year and the last time they laid points on the road, they lost by 20. Going back to last year, the Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. CS-Northridge is 6-2 ATS off a straight up win and the home team has captured the cash in four of the last five meetings. Play on CS NORTHRIDGE AAA |
|||||||
02-05-21 | Jacksonville +7.5 v. Bellarmine | Top | 56-71 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE Jacksonville has lost five in a row, however, four of those losses have come by six points or less. Tonight they try to play spoiler against Bellarmine, who is one of three teams tied atop the Atlantic Sun with a 6-2 conference record. Bellarmine has won six in a row, four of the wins coming on the road. But it’s worth pointing out that those six wins all came against the bottom three teams in the league. Jacksonville just got done facing the other top two, Liberty and North Alabama. So the recent records are a little misleading on both ends here. Bellarmine’s last two wins were against Kennesaw State, who is 0-10 in conference play. Despite shooting 60% in their last game, the Knights won by only five. You’ll want to take the points here. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
|||||||
02-04-21 | Ohio State v. Iowa -4.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA This is a top 10 matchup out of the Big 10 with #8 Iowa hosting #7 Ohio State. Despite being ranked one spot lower, Iowa is better. Considering that and the fact they are the home team, the Hawkeyes look like a solid value to lay the points with tonight. Now while they avoided what would have been a three-game losing streak by beating Michigan State on Tuesday, Iowa failed to cover the 9.5-point spread. (They won 84-78). So it’s three games in a row they haven’t covered. But the fact the team has lost just one time at home and is averaging 90.8 points per game at Carver-Hawkeye is definitely encouraging. Ohio State is also off a win over Michigan State, theirs coming by a score of 79-62. That was in Columbus though. We just don’t think the Buckeyes are going to produce enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Player of the Year (Luke Garza) and the Hawkeyes. Lay it! Play on IOWA AAA |
|||||||
02-03-21 | Pacers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 110-130 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana looked really good last night, beating a Memphis team that had previously won seven in a row. The Grizzlies were playing on the second night of a back to back, but the Pacers made it look easy with a 134-116 victory. They shot nearly 60% for the game and now must avoid the same fate that befell their opponents last night as they play without rest. Milwaukee is the opponent, so it won’t be easy, but the Bucks are just 3-4 SU L7 games. Also no one on the Pacers logged more than 35 minutes last night. Playing on back to back days hasn’t been a problem before. They are actually 3-0 straight up and against the spread in such games this season. They are also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. While the Bucks started this homestand by drubbing Portland 134-106, that may not be a good thing as they are 0-3 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more in their last game. Play on INDIANA AAA |
|||||||
02-03-21 | South Carolina v. Florida -8 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA Florida had its season paused in late December, but has really started to get on track of late. An impressive win at Morgantown (West Virginia) on Saturday was the fourth straight game the Gators have been the victors. The 85-80 win over the 11th ranked team in the country also got them in the Top 25 (#22). Now they turn around and will host South Carolina this evening. The Gamecocks have only played 10 games this season and are 4-6. They were not a participant in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge, but lost over the weekend anyway (at Vanderbilt). That was the fourth loss in five games. South Carolina has lost both games vs. ranked teams this year, neither of which ended up being particularly close. They lost by 11 at Missouri and by 23 to Auburn. One could make the case that Florida is better than those teams. South Carolina has also lost four straight road games, by an average of 9.5 points/game. Florida has won its last three at home by an average of 14 points. Too many injuries for South Carolina to compete vs. a team that just beat two top 15 teams (Tenn, WVU). Play on FLORIDA AAA |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland played a terrible game last night in Milwaukee, losing 134-106. The Bucks were coming off two straight losses, a rarity for them, but still there’s rarely an excuse for losing by 28 points. Tonight the Blazers face a Washington team that’s off a shocking win as they defeated Brooklyn 149-147 (a game that ended in regulation!) Saturday night. That was the Wizards’ first win since returning from a long COVID-induced layoff. They’d lost four in a row prior and were beaten soundly in all four games. That they were behind by five with just 10 seconds left against Brooklyn means the Wizards are quite lucky not to be on a 5-game losing streak here. We’re a bit surprised that they are the favorites tonight. Yes the game is in D.C. but the Wizards still have one of the worst records in the NBA at 4-12 SU. Portland has taken the last three meetings. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
02-02-21 | Tennessee -4 v. Ole Miss | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee flexed its muscle over the weekend, beating Kansas 80-61, and is now back in the Top 10. Tonight the Vols are at Ole Miss. We’re a bit shocked this line isn’t higher. The Rebels have lost five of seven. While some of those losses were close, none were to teams as good as this.They are not one of the SEC’s better teams. It can’t be understated just how good Tennessee looked on Saturday. They were up 14 by halftime and led by as much as 26 in the second half. They did not allow a single second-chance point! We realize they haven’t had to go on the road very often, but they did win by 20 at Missouri (who is ranked) and by 17 at Texas A&M. A big reason why Ole Miss is losing games is the three-point line. They are shooting 25.9% from long distance in SEC play. Their opponents are shooting 37.4%. This problem reared its ugly head again on Saturday as they were only 2 of 13 from three-point range vs. Georgia, who was 9 of 18. Tennessee is holding opponents to 30% on three pointers. They should win easily tonight. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
|||||||
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS New Orleans certainly did right by me on Friday. They were able to defeat Milwaukee, right here at home, by a score of 131-126. That scoring output matched the most points allowed by the Bucks in any game this season. So it was a really impressive victory for the Pelicans. Unfortunately, they had to play the next night and lost 126-112 to Houston. That makes it nine losses in the last 12 games for a team that was expected to make the playoffs this year. Sacramento is not a team anyone expects to make the playoffs, so this is a game the Pelicans “have to have.” They’re laying a surprisingly short number, partly because the Kings are 4-0 ATS their last four games, but we’ll lay it. The Kings are just dreadful defensively despite a low-scoring loss in Miami over the weekend. No team in the league allows more points per possession and it’s not really close. The 119.6 points/game allowed by the Kings are the most in the Western Conference. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
02-01-21 | UCF v. Memphis -9 | Top | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS Memphis saw its three-game win streak come to an end on Thursday with a two-point loss at SMU. They did cover the spread though as four point underdogs. It was the fourth consecutive cover by the Tigers, who were 2-9 ATS in their first 11 lined games. Having a couple extra days to prepare for this game with struggling UCF seems like a big deal. The Golden Knights have won only one time in their last seven games and it was against a terrible East Carolina team at home. UCF did play over the weekend and lost in overtime at Wichita State as they let a late eight-point lead slip away. There have been a lot of games this year where the Knights failed to crack 65 points and this figures to be another with Memphis allowing only 59.0 per game at home where they are 7-1 straight up. UCF has lost 12 of its previous 13 visits to Memphis, including by 20 the last time they came here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
|||||||
01-31-21 | CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington -9 | Top | 60-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON Eastern Washington started the season 0-3 but has since won 4 of 7 with the three losses all being by five points or less. Last weekend saw the Eagles split a couple games out in Northern Colorado as they lost the first by two points and won the second by six. There haven’t been many home games for the Eagles thus far, only three to be exact, so they should relish the opportunity Sunday when they welcome Sacramento State. The Hornets have also played many close games recently with three of their last four decided by six points or fewer and two of them going to overtime. So a lot of people are going to expect a close game here. But the line, which has EWU favored pretty strongly, is telling. Sacramento State may be 6-3 but they’ve played only three times on the road. They’ve lost two of them. They’ve also lost 9 of the last 10 matchups with Eastern Washington. These teams were actually supposed to play Thursday, but a positive COVID test on the Sacramento State forced a schedule change to Sunday & Monday. The disruption will affect the Hornets more as they have to travel. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE There is an interesting pattern this year with Golden State as they have yet to win or lose three in a row. Thursday marked the fifth time they failed to win a third straight game. They lost by 21 at Phoenix, a shocking failure as it was only a five-point deficit at halftime. The problem was that other than Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the rest of the team shot just 32 percent (22 of 68). There have been three times so far that the Warriors have lost back to back games. However, each time the second loss came on the road. And those losses were all to really good teams: Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Tonight they are facing a bad Detroit team and the game is at home. The Pistons are 1-7 on the road and allow 119.0 points per game. Fresh off an upset of the Lakers at home, we say the Pistons are ripe to get blown out Saturday night. When they beat the Lakers, there was no Anthony Davis. LeBron James went uncharacteristically cold in the second half. Curry won’t be cold in this game considering the Pistons defensive woes on the road. The Warriors already beat the Pistons by 10 in Detroit last month. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE While we recognize Purdue is at home, any time an unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent, it catches our eye. Minnesota isn’t likely to be ranked for much longer, especially if they lose this game. Our money is on the Golden Gophers losing. Not only did they go down at home to Maryland last Saturday, they are 0-4 on the road this season. They could manage only 49 points vs. the Terps last week. All four road losses have been by at least 12 points. Why are they ranked again? Now Purdue is also looking to bounce back from an ugly loss. They lost by 17 to Michigan last Friday, here in West Lafayette. But that was preceded by a four-game win streak and it was their first home loss. Minnesota is giving up an average of 82.7 points on the road. Leading scorer Carr played the full 40 last Saturday vs. Maryland and scored 25 points. But his teammates could only manage 24 points on 6 of 32 shooting. Look for the Gophers to go down again. Play on PURDUE AAA |
|||||||
01-30-21 | TCU v. Missouri -9 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI Missouri is off their third loss of the season. They’ve performed quite well off the previous two. After losing by 20 to Tennessee, they came back and won on the road by 13 against Arkansas. After losing by 15 at Mississippi State, they came back and won by 16 at Texas A&M. This time the Tigers get to play at home and they got a fortunate draw in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge with TCU, who is one of the Big 12’s weaker teams. The Horned Frogs just played their first game in 16 days Thursday and they lost 58-51 at Kansas. After such a long layoff (coach Jamie Dixon had tested positive for COVID), let’s see how they do playing a second road game in three days. Our guess is that it won’t go well. Missouri’s loss on Thursday was to a surging Auburn team that is better than most realize. A poor 1st half cost Mizzou but at home they won’t be getting off to a slow start and they shouldn’t have much problem shutting down a TCU team that averages only 62.9 points away from home. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -9 | Top | 55-59 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. PETERS Manhattan has won three straight games. They were an underdog in all three wins. The last two were at home vs. Niagara. But those games were played almost two weeks ago. They were supposed to play two vs. Monmouth last week, but those games got postponed due to a positive test in the Monmouth program. Playing with this much rest hasn’t gone well for the Jaspers as they are 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they’ve gone on seven or more days' rest. Let’s also talk about the fact that two of their three recent wins were by three points or less. They didn’t even score 60 points in any of them. Then again, St. Peter’s just scored only 40 in a loss at Siena. But something you should know is that this is the Peacocks’ first home game since December 12th! They’ve played seven in a row on the road. They’ve played only three home games, won all of them, and allowed just 51, 54 and 49 points. It’s quite telling that they are such prohibitive favorites here. Manhattan is just 2-7 ATS their previous nine road games. They are shooting an abysmal 32.8% on the road this season. Play on ST PETERS AAA |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Bucks v. Pelicans +7 | Top | 126-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Milwaukee is off a fairly big win over Toronto. This is the middle game of a three-game road trip. New Orleans just won, 124-106 against Washington. That was just their second win in 10 games. The Pelicans have only gotten to play six home games though. They are 3-3 in those six, not that great, but the Bucks are only 4-4 on the road. Playing on ESPN, you figure the Pelicans are going to come out highly motivated. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS off a win and 2-6-1 ATS off an ATS win. New Orleans has been a home underdog only one time and they won that game, 120-116 over Toronto. They were actually only a one-point dog in that game. This is likely to be the most points they get in any home game this season (or at least until they play the Lakers). Even though they are just 2-8 the last 10 games, the Pelicans have only been outscored by an average of less than five points per game. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Warriors +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 93-114 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Both the Warriors and Suns were in action last night. The respective results were quite different. Golden State handled its business at home against Minnesota, winning rather easily by a score of 123-111. Rookie James Wiseman led the way with 25 points after Steph Curry had 36 the previous game vs. the Timberwolves. Off that two-game sweep, Golden State now goes to the desert where they’ll face a wounded Suns team that is playing without leading scorer Devin Booker. Last night marked the third straight loss for Phoenix as they fell 102-97 here at home to Oklahoma City. It also marked the fifth loss in the last six games and seventh in the last 10. Last night was especially frustrating for the Suns as they jumped out to an early 17-point lead. But that didn’t last long. Booker isn’t the only one not playing for the Suns right now. Dario Sakic has been out due to COVID, so this team is pretty short-handed right now. You have to imagine that Curry is going to have a bounce back game tonight after missing his first seven shots last night. That’s bad news for a struggling Suns team that is just 1-5 ATS its last six games as a favorite. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-28-21 | Gonzaga v. San Diego +28.5 | Top | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO Top-ranked Gonzaga continues to “hum along” as they are 15-0 following a 95-49 win against Pacific last Saturday. There has been only one game all season - an 87-82 win vs. West Virginia on December 2nd - that the Zags DIDN’T win by double digits. But they don’t cover as much as you might think. The win against Pacific marked the first time in five games that Mark Few’s team left with the cash. They are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 games as the pointspreads keeping getting higher and higher. The Bulldogs are laying a huge number tonight at San Diego, which is understandable given the Toreros’ record and general inactivity. They’ve played only eight games this season and won just two. But one of the wins was on Saturday as they defeated Portland 78-70 on the road. They won’t win tonight, but this is a ton of points to be getting at home. Gonzaga has just one WCC win - Saturday’s game vs Pacific - that was by a larger margin than what tonight’s spread will end up being. They are just 4-8 ATS on the road laying at least 12.5 and 0-2 laying at least 24.5. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
01-28-21 | TCU v. Kansas -14.5 | Top | 51-59 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* on KANSAS Kansas has lost three in a row, all on the road, so they should be in “desperation mode” come Thursday night at Allen Fieldhouse. They’ll be taking on a TCU team that has also lost its last three games, but has not played in 16 days. That’s because of coach Jamie Dixon testing positive for COVID-19, so this team is all out of sorts right now. The Horned Frogs’ three-game losing streak actually began at the hands of Kansas, a 93-64 result in Fort Worth. Since then they’ve lost by 18 to Baylor and by 36 at Oklahoma. This game was supposed to be played Tuesday before getting bumped back due to protocols. The extra 48 hours isn’t nearly enough for TCU to avoid the beatdown they’ve got coming to them. Again, they’ve already lost by 29 at home to Kansas. This is only the third 3-game losing streak for the Jayhawks in the past 25 seasons. They’ve never lost four in a row during that time. At home, their PPG allowed drops down to 63.6. It should be noted that it was three good teams they lost to on the road, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It’s not as if they were blown out in any of them. All will be well again in Lawrence after tonight. Play on KANSAS AAA |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +1 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO STATE Boise State is as hot as any team in the country not named Gonzaga or Baylor. The Broncos have won 13 in a row. They are unbeaten in the Mountain West, although we should be clear that they have yet to face any of the top teams in the conference. That changes on Wednesday with a visit to Fort Collins. Colorado State has already knocked off Utah State, who also had been unbeaten in conference play. That was the last time the Rams played and they are now the third place team, trailing only Boise and Utah State. CSU is 8-2 in conference play and we like the fact they are undefeated at home (6-0) where they average 82.2 points/game.Look for the Rams to jump out to a big halftime advantage in this one. They are the best team Boise has faced since a season opening loss to Houston. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Celtics -3 v. Spurs | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON After a three-game losing streak that saw them lose twice to the 76ers and in embarrassing fashion to the Knicks, Boston has battled back to win its last two games in very convincing fashion. They took care of the Cavs 141-103 and then the Bulls 119-103. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was supposed to play Monday in New Orleans, but didn’t due to COVID-19 protocols. The Spurs last played Sunday when they blew out a Washington team that was playing its first game in two weeks. Before that, the Spurs had lost two straight. With COVID now impacting them, we don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight. Jayson Tatum is now back for the Celtics, who are 4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. It appears that we don’t need to worry about this game not being played. So we’ll lay the points. Play on BOSTON AAA |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Miami-FL v. Florida State -12 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State is now ranked #16 in the country. The Seminoles are 9-2 and have won their last four games. The current win streak began with a truly dominating effort where they defeated North Carolina State 105-73. That was the last time we took them. Since then, they’ve rolled North Carolina, Louisville and Clemson. The last two were double digit wins with the Louisville one being particularly impressive as it came on the road. Tonight they welcome Miami to Tallahassee and the Hurricanes are coming off an awful week where they lost 83-57 at Syracuse and 73-59 at home to Notre Dame. Those kind of putrid offensive efforts won’t cut it here. It is especially disconcerting that they could only score 59 against Notre Dame, who is not good defensively. FSU is 8-1 at home and winning by an average of almost 13 points/game. Miami is one of the weaker teams in the ACC this year, so this should be a third straight double digit victory by the Noles. They’ve beaten Miami five straight times, by an average of 10 points. They lead the ACC in points per game at home and have averaged 86.3 their last four at home. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Knicks v. Jazz -10.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH AAA |
|||||||
01-26-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -11 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AKRON Akron comes in at 8-3 on the season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ve been red hot lately, winning and covering four straight. A 78.9 points per game scoring average is impressive and it gets even more impressive when you look at only home games as they are averaging 87.0 in those. Eastern Michigan’s resume is quite different. The Eagles have not won a game away from home this season. They are 1-6 ATS in conference play and have lost four in a row by an average of 20.25 points (0-4 ATS). In the previous four road games, you’re looking at an average of 86.5 points/game allowed. Shockingly, EMU won the first meeting between the teams, 71-59 as a 5.5-point dog. But that was obviously in Ypsilanti. So the revenge factor is strong here and we’ve got every reason to believe this Tuesday night matchup in the MAC turns into a blowout. Credit to Akron for allowing their previous opponents to shoot just 28.9% from three-point range this season. That number probably won’t go up after tonight as EMU is shooting just 28.3% from behind the arc, including a woeful 23.5% when on the road. Akron’s average margin of victory at home is 16.2 PPG. Could these teams be any more different heading into this one? Play on AKRON AAA |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Thunder v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Knicks v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
|||||||
01-24-21 | San Diego State -17 v. Air Force | Top | 91-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON SAN DIEGO STATE By the time Tuesday rolls around, San Diego State and Air Force will have met in three straight games. Here in Colorado Springs, they are used to see things “flying high,” but in this case it’s the Aztecs who came in and took the first game 98-61 as 13-point favorites. That win snapped a 4-game ATS slide and was a nice bounce back for a team that has just gotten swept the week prior by Utah State. The Mountain West is shaping up as a fairly strong league this year with the likes of Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State plus SDSU. Air Force is simply not in the same class as those teams as they are now 0-5 against them with all five losses coming by double digits. The Falcons have won just one time in the last seven games and aren’t even averaging 60 PPG this season. No team in the country takes fewer shots per game. They’ve also given up 77 or more points in five of the last six losses. San Diego State is excellent defensively and is giving up less than 60 PPG on the road. They’ve covered 14 of the last 17 on the road. Five players were in double figures Thursday as the Aztecs picked it up with leading scorer Matt Mitchell on the shelf. More of the same Sunday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Warriors +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Duke +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DUKE Duke simply has not been good this year as they are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. Dealing with COVID-19 hasn’t helped and here the Blue Devils hope to avoid an 0-3 road trip when they head to Louisville. The home team has its own problems right now as they’ve also lost two in a row, though the last one came at home to Florida State by 13 points. Only one of these traditional powers can get off the mat Saturday and it’s interesting that this is just the second time this season that Duke is an underdog. We’re seeing value in the number here. This is the first time they’ve lost two straight and you’ve got to think they’ll shoot better as a team here than they did vs. Pitt earlier in the week. Jalen Johnson had a monster effort in that game, going for 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and zero turnovers. Duke is the more talented team here. Louisville does not shoot the three well and actually trailed Florida State 40-16 in the first half on Monday. The road team has won the last two times these schools have faced off. Why can’t it be three in a row? Play on DUKE AAA |
|||||||
01-23-21 | NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NC STATE North Carolina State is in desperation mode here as they’re off to an 0-3 start to 2021. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a down year in the ACC and rival UNC isn’t doing much better. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 ATS in ACC play and that includes a 79-76 loss in Raleigh right before Christmas. North Carolina has won four of its last five games straight up, however all of those wins came by seven or less and two were by a combined three points. So this team isn’t winning by any kind of margin right now and we’ll back the underdog. This is NC State’s 1st game in 10 days due to a pair of COVID-19 postponements. Last time we saw them, we faded and boy was that a smart decision as they lost by 32 at Florida State, 105-73 as a 3.5-point underdog. There’s no way to dress that loss up, but we see no reason why the Wolfpack should be getting more points from UNC than they were from FSU. Prior to that season-worst showing, NC State’s last four games had all been decided by five or less. Florida State somehow shot 70.7% against them, something no future opponent will do, including UNC. They’ve beaten the Tar Heels once and can do it again. Play on NC STATE AAA |
|||||||
01-22-21 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COL -1.5 (Puck Line) Colorado lost last night in Los Angeles, 4-1. That was a very shocking result when you consider the Avs were -230 on the money line and had just beaten the Kings two days earlier. Now it’s onto Anaheim where they’ll face a Ducks team that has scored a league-low six goals in four games. Considering the Avalanche scored eight goals in one game, this would appear to be a severe mismatch. Colorado had a 2-0 lead last night after jumping out to a 3-0 lead the game before. We expect them to win this one by multiple goals. Anaheim’s top two lines are really struggling right now and when you look at the preseason projections, you’ll see Colorado was pegged for the top of West while the Ducks were expected to be at the bottom. The Avs have won the last five times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. Play on COLORADO -1.5 AAA |