Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Memphis is a big favorite Saturday and justifiably so as they are coming off a 12-2 season last year and have won seven straight season openers. Arkansas State went 8-5 SU in 2019 and has now won at least 7 games in each of Blake Anderson’s six seasons here. But the Red Wolves are badly outclassed in this one. Their defense gave up 34.2 points/game and 6.1 yards/play last year and has just three starters back. Memphis is likely to be the best offense they see all season. Though the head coach left, the schemes and key contributors on the field largely remain the same for the Tigers. QB White leads an offense that has averaged over 40 points/game each of the previous three seasons. Memphis was 7-0 at the Liberty Bowl last season, winning most of those games by double digits. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY (Money Line) Both Middle Tennessee and Army are expected to be improved in 2020. For Middle Tennessee, the bounce back seems logical. Two years ago they were 7-1 in Conference USA and came up just 2 points shy of the Title Game. Losing QB Stockstill last season (graduation) had a real impact as they fell all the way down to 4-8 overall, ending a 7-year bowl run. It’s a similar deal for Army, who went 11-2 SU two years ago only to drop to 5-8 SU last season. These teams combined to go 1-7 straight up in one score games in 2019. Only one can win here though and we think that will be Army. This game was not originally on the schedule and preparing for the triple option is tough even when you know that it's coming. Middle Tennessee’s defense was bad last year as they were bottom 20 in the country in yards allowed. They have just three returning starters. On offense, the Blue Raiders are missing their top two running backs, both of whom opted out. Army is 5-1-1 ATS in September the last two seasons. MTSU is 2-5 ATS. Play on ARMY (money line) AAA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTHERN MISS So Southern Mississippi is a decided favorite over South Alabama and we can’t say that we’re surprised. South Alabama has won all of five games the previous two seasons and was 2-10 SU in 2019. Head coach Steve Campbell really needs to show improvement in year three. The only problem is he’s got just 11 starters back from a team that wasn’t good in the first place. The Jaguars enter 2020 pretty thin along both lines - offensive and defensive. Southern Miss has gone 28-22 SU in four years under Jay Hopson. QB Abraham is back leading an offense that put up 6.1 yards per play last season. The Golden Eagles have covered five of the last seven games against the Sun Belt, though this is the first-ever meeting with South Alabama. USA did not have a good offense last year. Though they showed signs late, the Jaguars still ended up averaging just 18.4 points/game. We look for Southern Miss to control in the trenches and their pass rush should get after South Alabama QB Trotter. Play on Southern Miss AAA |
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09-01-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VAN +1.5 (PL) We’ve gone 10-1 when playing the puck line in 2020 including a perfect 5-0 since the restart. Opportunities are obviously getting scarce as the playoffs progress with money lines tightening up. But here is a chance to take the Canucks +1.5 when everyone has likely “given up” on them. We didn’t give up on Vancouver in Game 2 when they were coming off a 5-0 loss in the series opener. Now they’ve lost Games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-0 and 5-3. Those games were played on back to back days following three days off due to the protests. Now the Canucks find themselves needing a win to stay alive in this best of seven series. Whether or not they can pull that off remains to be seen but we do like them to at least stay within one goal of the Golden Knights in Game 5. They had the lead going into the third period of Game 4, 2-1, but then gave up three goals in the span of 5:57. The only other time that the Canucks were off two straight losses here in the bubble, they came up big, beating St. Louis 4-3 to take control of the last series. They are 7-2 the L9 times playing on one day’s rest. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-25-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER +1.5 Game 1 probably couldn’t have gone much worse for the Canucks as they lost 5-0 to the Golden Knights. Despite taking the Knights ourselves, even we were taken aback by how one-sided the game got. But now we expect the Canucks to bounce back in Game 2 and at least keep the score within one goal. Prior to being blown out in Game 1, Vancouver had won 7 of 9 games with just one loss in regulation. Vegas has four one-goal victories in the bubble and won two other games in which they trailed by at least two goals. It can be argued that Game 1 was the Knights best game since the restart. It was certainly Vancouver’s worst effort. The Canucks were also shut out in their first game (3-0 by Minnesota) but then came back to win the next five. That they have never beaten Vegas in regulation all-time is pretty shocking. They have won Game 2 in both previous series. Expect a much closer Game 2 with Vancouver possibly pulling the upset. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 AAA |
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08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 103 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-21-20 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH -1.5 Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM. They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 103 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-13-20 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO +1.5 The Blackhawks did not have much of an answer for the Golden Knights in Game 1, losing 4-1, and they now face an uphill climb down 0-1 in the series. Vegas, who has yet to lose since the restart (4-0), has scored four or more goals in every game so far. But they trailed by multiple goals in each of the first two games and then needed overtime to best Colorado and earn the West’s #1 overall seed. We’ll call for Chicago to be more competitive here in Game 2, which is pretty close to a “must win” for them in a best of seven series. Note that the Blackhawks have gone 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a loss by three or more goals. That includes a Game 3 win against Edmonton in the qualification round. Play CHICAGO +1.5 AAA |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flyers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MONTREAL +1.5 Philadelphia is the hottest team in the league since January 8th. They’d won 9 of 10 going into the shutdown and then won all three round robin games to earn the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Drawing Montreal in the Round of 16 seems like a gift based on seeding, but the Flyers must be wary of Carey Price, the Canadiens’ outstanding goaltender. Price gives his team a chance to steal any game, something the Penguins found out the hard way in the qualification series. It only took four games for the Habs to eliminate the Pens, which is somewhat of a shocking result given Pittsburgh came into the series at full strength. But Price was the difference maker with a .947 save percentage. That’s the best save percentage for any goalie in the bubble. Montreal being a 12-seed is something that can be overlooked. Twice in the Pittsburgh series, we took the Habs +1.5. Both times they won. At the very least, look for Price to keep Game 1 within a one-goal margin. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -3 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 6* on PHOENIX The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA -1.5 Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns +3 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-05-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MONTREAL +1.5 We had Montreal +1.5 in Game 1, which they won straight up, and then in Game 2 it was only a 2-1 game with 10 seconds remaining when the Pens scored an empty net goal. So we’ll back the Habs again on the puck line here as it’s fairly clear that goalie Carey Price gives them a chance to win on any given night. Price has been under fire all throughout the two games, but has made 74 saves on 78 shots and proven himself to be up for the challenge. Historically speaking, the Penguins aren’t great in this spot, dropping six of their seven games as a playoff favorite (Game 2 was the only win). Also the underdog has won six of the last eight times these teams have played. The Canadiens won’t do any worse than a one-goal loss here as they’ve got the better goaltender, which means they’re always going to be in the game. Play on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Bucks v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-01-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 105 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 Anything can happen in these best of five qualification series, including this one where Montreal meets Pittsburgh. We’re taking the Habs +1.5 on the puck line, meaning they can either win or lose by one goal and it’s still a winning bet. The one edge Montreal has in this series is in goal. Carey Price is better than whomever Pittsburgh goes with (either Tristan Jarry or Matt Murray). Jarry was having the better season, but Murray was more playoff tested. At the same time, Jarry seemed to be slumping before the season stopped as he was 0-4 and allowed 18 goals. Montreal played Pittsburgh three times this year, beat them once and another time took them to overtime. Also, after the All-Star Break, the Canadiens had the third most scoring chances in the league (per 60 mins) when at even strength. They are more than capable of “stealing” Game 1 on Saturday. 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 AAA |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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07-26-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -160 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5 Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5 AAA |
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07-24-20 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5 Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5 AAA |
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03-11-20 | St. Joe's v. George Mason -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GMU The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON AAA |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-20 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Magic +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORLANDO Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-08-20 | Delaware +1.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DELAWARE Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE AAA |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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03-06-20 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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03-06-20 | Kent State v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Akron Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON AAA |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors +8 | Top | 121-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the WARRIORS Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV AAA |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies v. Nets -2 | Top | 118-79 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!). Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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03-03-20 | Devils v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS -1.5 Vegas is a huge favorite tonight and for good reason. They’d won eight in a row prior to Sunday’s surprising 4-1 loss to the Kings. That loss was at home, but in our opinion it’s no reason to be concerned. Another last place team comes to their rink tonight and while the Devils just beat Anaheim 3-0, they’d previously two straight on this road trip which began more than a week ago. For Vegas, tonight marks the end of a four-game homestand. You know they want to end it on a high-note. What was so odd about that loss to the Kings is the Knights finished with a 43-17 edge in shots including 19-1 in the third period. They just couldn’t get anything past Calvin Petersen. The good news is that the Golden Knights have won five straight times after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Our call is to play Vegas at -1.5 on the puck line here. Play VEGAS -1.5 AAA |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-01-20 | 76ers +13 v. Clippers | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S AAA |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +3.5 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz -10 | Top | 119-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on North Dakota St This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PENN ST Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-24-20 | Hawks v. 76ers -8 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-23-20 | Stanford v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-23-20 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-22-20 | Oregon +5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-22-20 | 76ers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-119 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-22-20 | UCLA v. Colorado -10 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-21-20 | Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-20-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-20-20 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Iowa We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-19-20 | East Carolina v. Memphis -12.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS There’s significant hand-wringing now over Memphis’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A team firmly on the “bubble” all season, the Tigers have gone out and lost three straight. Right now, no one seems to be considering Penny Hardaway’s team as being worthy of the Big Dance and without a really strong finish to the regular season, it’s difficult to imagine that changing. It is worth mentioning though that this three-game losing streak has been nothing but close games. The three losses have all been by six points or less and by a total of only 11 points. Tonight, Memphis has a golden opportunity to take its frustrations out on a lesser opponent, that being East Carolina, who is just 7-13 ATS when getting 12.5 or more on the road. The Pirates are in second to last in the American with a 4-9 conference record and have been beaten by double digits each of the last two times out. Their only conference wins since January 11th both were against Tulane, the last place team in the American. Memphis wins by an average of 17 points/game at home. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-18-20 | Kentucky v. LSU -2.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU It wasn’t that long ago where LSU was the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and feeling really good about itself. But three losses in the past four games have dropped the Tigers out of the Top 25 and one game back of Kentucky in the SEC. But those three losses the Tigers recently suffered all have one thing in common and that’s they all took place on the road. In Baton Rouge, this team is still 13-1 and they’ve generally won by safe margins. Kentucky is not as dominant as you might think even though it is ranked 10th in the country. While the Wildcats have won eight of nine, most of the wins have come against the bottom half of the SEC. They have failed to cover five of the seven games they have played against teams that average at least 77 points game. LSU averages more than that. LSU is undervalued tonight at home. Play on LSU AAA |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Penn State is undoubtedly a hot team right. Having achieved a top 10 ranking (#9) for the first time in forever, the Nittany Lions are on an 8-0 win streak - both straight up and against the spread. Their latest conquest took place Saturday when they defeated Northwestern 77-61. It was their largest margin of victory during the win streak. Of course, Northwestern also just so happens to be the worst team in the Big 10. Illinois, while having lost four in a row, is still considered to be a NCAA Tournament team and it wasn’t that long ago that they were leading the conference! The Illini’s rough patch has included games vs. Maryland and Michigan State as well as road trips to Iowa and Rutgers. Really, they shouldn’t have been favored to win any of those games. They obviously don’t deserve to be favored tonight either, but the spread is too high in our estimation considering where Illinois was just a short time ago. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-17-20 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina isn’t going to get sympathy from anyone in the ACC or nationally. But it sure is sad to see the Tar Heels having fallen this far (last place in the ACC). For the second time this year, they’re on a five-game losing streak. They’re just 2-10 the past 12 games. But this more recent five game losing streak has seen them fall by two points or less three different times. Saturday against Virginia they lost 64-62. But you should take them here against a Notre Dame team that was just humiliated by Duke over the weekend. The Fighting Irish took a 34-point loss in Durham, which ended a six-game ATS win streak. The Irish have had some close losses of their own, namely a one-point loss at Virginia last Tuesday that went into overtime. But that Duke loss is going to be “tough to shake” and we expect there to be somewhat of a “carry over” from Saturday to tonight. Before Saturday, Notre Dame had been held to 60 points or less three different times this season. They’ve yet to cover off one of those performances. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-17-20 | Xavier v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST JOHNS Xavier finds itself right on the NCAA (Tournament) bubble and something tells us that the committee cares very little about the fact that the Musketeers have covered four straight games. What the committee will focus on is the fact they lost to Butler last Wednesday, 66-61, stopping a three-game SU win streak. They are 16-9 SU, but only 9-15-1 ATS and 5-11 ATS laying points. Tonight they go to St. John’s, who is off an 80-69 win over Providence. The Red Storm averages 77.7 points/game at home, so that’s something Xavier has to contend with here. There was a meeting back on Jan 5th, won by Xavier 75-67. But in an eight-point game, St. John’s was 1 for 16 on 3PA, which definitely cost them a cover (line was +8) and possibly even an upset win. With the kind of offense the Red Storm typically produces at home, we expect better shooting tonight. They are 9-5 ATS at home and just came up big in one revenge spot (vs. Providence) and can do the same here against a Xavier team that has a losing record in Big East play. The Musketeers were down by as many as 17 against Butler and only got close when the Bulldogs lost G Aaron Thompson to injury. Play on ST. JOHNS AAA |
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02-16-20 | Utah v. Oregon -12.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Oregon is well-positioned right now. They are ranked #17 in the country and one win away from tying Colorado for first place in the Pac 12. Getting that win should prove to be pretty easy on Sunday as they host Utah, who has won exactly one true road game this season. Now the pointspread is in the double digits because of all you have just read, but that’s to be expected and not something we’re concerned about in the slightest. We know how the Pac 12 schedule works so this is actually the second road game of the weekend for the Utes, who lost by 19 in Corvallis (Oregon State) Thursday. Oregon won that same night, 68-60 over Colorado, to keep their record perfect (now 13-0) here in Eugene. Utah isn’t just 1-7 straight up on the road, they’re 2-6 against the spread as well and getting beaten by more than 16 points per game. Oregon already won in Salt Lake City this year and should have no problem winning big tonight. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-15-20 | Washington v. UCLA -3 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UCLA While UCLA did win 86-83 Thursday, that wasn’t nearly good enough for us as we had them -8 against Washington State. Still, from the Bruins perspective, they’ll take the result. It was the sixth win in the last eight games and it was last Saturday that they went to Arizona and won 65-52 as a double digit dog. Now they look to win three in a row for the first time all season. They’ll face a Washington team that has been a major disappointment and is 0-6 ATS in road games. The Huskies are also 0-7 both straight up and against the spread their last seven games overall. We went against them this past Sunday when they were favored (by 2.5) at Washington State. They lost 79-67. Then they lost at USC Thursday 62-56. A third straight road game doesn’t seem like the situation UW will figure things out so we will gladly go against them again tonight. After all, earlier this year UCLA went to Seattle and won outright as an 8.5 point underdog. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-15-20 | UNLV +3 v. New Mexico | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV is off a tough loss to rival Nevada. That game went to overtime with the Rebels coming up just short, losing 82-79 as a 1.5 point home favorite. That was their 4th consecutive ATS loss as well as the fifth straight up loss in the last six games. Coming into Saturday, they’re just 12-14 and basically just waiting for the Mountain West Tournament to get here (which is in Vegas). New Mexico though is not doing much better as they’ve lost six of eight. Lobos games are seemingly never close. All but one of those last eight games has been decided by more than 20 points. Five of them have been losses, one of them 99-78 at UNLV. Tuesday was another humbling setback as San Diego State got them 82-59. A team like this simply can’t be trusted in the favorite role. The Lobos have failed to cover five of their last six turns as a home favorite of three points or less. UNLV was a six-point favorite when it blew out UNM last month. Even with the change in home court, we don’t think this line makes much sense. Play on UNLV AAA |
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02-15-20 | Northwestern +13 v. Penn State | Top | 61-77 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTHWESTERN Seemingly out of nowhere, Penn State has emerged as a “darkhorse” Final Four candidate. Yes, Penn State! The Nittany Lions are ranked #13 in the country and will certainly move up were they to win today. They’re on a 7-0 SU and ATS win streak after going to Purdue and winning 88-76 as a 5-point dog earlier this week. That’s quite the impressive streak. Early Saturday PSU host Northwestern in what seems to be the Nittany Lions “easiest” Big 10 game of the year. But that also makes this a surprisingly dangerous spot to be laying this many points. Penn State is used to being the hunter rather than the hunted. Today marks just the 4th time in the last 9 games that they have been the betting favorite. It will also by the most points they’ve had to lay to a Big 10 opponent in a long time. Northwestern has lost eight in a row but only twice during that streak have they gone down by more than 13 points. They are 6-2 ATS on the road. Look for this to be a tighter game than expected. Play on NORTHWESTERN AAA |
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02-14-20 | Davidson +4 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 93-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON St. Bonaventure has been picking off the bottom feeders of the Atlantic 10 and the result is a five-game win streak entering Friday. The Bonnies’ last four wins were against George Mason, George Washington, Duquesne and St. Louis. They covered the spread against all four. They’ve now risen to third place in the conference and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. On the surface, laying a short number with the Bonnies at home against 12-11 Davidson seems logical. But Davidson is an underrated team. The Wildcats crushed Fordham 79-49 Tuesday, their second win by at least 30 points this month. In the last seven games, Davidson has suffered just one regulation loss and it was to preseason conference favorite VCU. While they’ve struggled as an underdog this year, this looks like a spot where they pull the upset. They’re 8-3 ATS when off a win by 20 or more points the last couple seasons. Play on DAVIDSON AAA |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA Washington State proved to be a huge revelation on this end when they upset Washington over the weekend. That was a huge play for us and the Cougars delivered a 79-67 victory as 2.5-point home dogs. But the road has been a much different story for this team. They’ve covered only six of the last 21 times including 1-5 ATS in 2019-20. Bottom line is that this is a game UCLA needs to have. The Bruins just beat a much better Pac 12 team, Arizona, 65-52 as a 12.5 point underdog last weekend. They’ve got revenge here for a 79-71 loss in Pullman earlier this year. UCLA has won three of four and five of seven, so they’re in better form now. They are 10-5 ATS the last 15 times they’ve played with revenge for a road loss. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-12-20 | Hornets v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Timberwolves laying this many points should tell you something and that “something” is that Charlotte is not good. While the Hornets did just win an ugly 87-76 game at Detroit two nights ago, that was preceded by five consecutive losses. Overall they’ve dropped 13 of 15 games and fallen near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. There are only three teams in the league that have been outscored by more points. Those are Cleveland, Atlanta and Golden State, who happen to have the three worst records in the league. So expect more losses to pile up for Charlotte in the coming weeks. In terms of laying this many points with the Timberwolves, who have lost 14 of their last 15 games, do not fret. They already won at Charlotte by 22 points earlier in the year. In the last home game, they hung 142 on the Clippers. If they can do that to a good team like the Clippers, they can certainly blowout the Hornets. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-12-20 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -5.5 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State was once ranked as high as #3 in the entire country. Now the Buckeyes find themselves in 10th place in the Big 10 with a 5-7 conference won-loss record. Despite their relatively poor effort at Wisconsin Sunday, we are still of the belief that OSU remains one of the better teams in the Big 10 and the entire country for that matter! Look for them to handle their business tonight in Columbus against a Rutgers team that seems to be failing under the pressure of expectations. The Scarlet Knights managed to get into the Top 25 a couple weeks ago, but then lost two straight (to Michigan and Maryland), followed up by an unimpressive win over Northwestern. Not only is Rutgers only 1-4 ATS its past five games, they have just one true road win all year and that was against Nebraska, who along with Northwestern represent the two “weak” Big 10 teams this year. Ohio State keeps teams to 57.0 PPG at home where they are 9-4 ATS. Expect this to be a statement-type game by the Buckeyes. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Chicago Bulls have not made the playoffs in several seasons. This year, the Eastern Conference is really lacking in depth so fans in the Windy City were hoping the drought would end. Unfortunately though, the Bulls are 16 games below .500 and have lost five in a row. Defense has been atrocious with them giving up 124 points/game during the current losing streak. Bad defense is something Washington knows all too well, but it was a poor offensive effort that cost them against Memphis on Monday night. They finished with only 99 points, the first time in a month they failed to break 100. The Wizards are normally a good offensive team (they average 115.5 points/game) so look for them to get back on track against this struggling Bulls team tonight. What happened against Memphis was they fell apart late, missing 18 of 22 shots in the fourth quarter as a double digit lead evaporated. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-11-20 | Western Michigan v. Ohio -5.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO Both these MAC schools sport 11-12 SU records. Western Michigan won the first meeting 77-65 as a 1-point home underdog. But Ohio remains the decided favorite for the rematch. Pulling what would be a third consecutive upset is going to be tough here for WMU. They won at Miami last week, then at home vs. Ball State. They entered those games at +4.5 and +5.5 respectively. The Broncos should be commended for that success, but eventually the tank hits empty. Ohio showed what it is capable of doing when it destroyed Miami here in Athens, 77-46 on Saturday. Certainly that was a much more impressive win than what WMU did to the RedHawks, winning by just four points. The win over Ball State also was by four points. Brandon Johnson carried them in those two wins, scoring 50 points including a career high 29 vs. Ball State. But can he keep that up? Western Michigan has not beaten three straight D-I opponents all year. Play on OHIO AAA |
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02-10-20 | Nets v. Pacers -7 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana comes into Monday on a five-game losing streak. Two of the losses came to a Toronto team that has won 14 in a row. The Pacers are lucky in that the East has no real depth, so they’re not in any real danger of falling further than where they’re at right now, which is 6th. The 7th place team (Brooklyn) is who they’ll face tonight and there’s a seven game gap between the teams even with the Pacers losing streak. The Nets also just lost in Toronto and it was by the same exact score (119-118) that Indiana lost by on Feb 5th. Both teams covered the spread in those losses and the Nets do come in riding a 3-game ATS win streak. But they’ve won only one time on the road going back to the start of 2020. To us, it’s just a question of whether or not the Pacers can cover the spread and we think they can as they already hold two double digit wins over Brooklyn this year and both of those were on the road. They didn’t have Victor Oladipo either. Now the Nets don’t have Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 1-8 ATS their last nine times as a road underdog. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-10-20 | Florida State v. Duke -8.5 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE The notion of laying this many points with a Duke team that is only 48 hours removed from a wild, 98-96 overtime win at North Carolina might seem problematic to some. But not us as our view is the Blue Devils are clearly the superior side in this one. Florida State has the same overall and ACC record as Duke, but we believe the respective rankings in the Top 25 don’t accurately reflect what the true gap is here. Duke would be favored against almost anybody on a neutral court while Florida State seems more like a team that is ranked high only due to its won-loss record. The Seminoles are obviously a Top 20 team, but we’re not sure about Top 10 and certainly not Top 5. Their three losses were to Virginia, Indiana and Pitt, all unranked teams. Duke is winning by an average of 21.2 points/game at home. They just won three straight on the road, scoring 97+ twice. Florida State is 1-5 ATS its last six Monday games (didn’t cover last week vs. UNC) while Duke is on a 6-2 ATS run its last eight Monday affairs. Play on DUKE AAA |
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02-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON A .500 record in the NBA may not seem like much to “crow” about, but the Grizzlies (26-26) are plenty happy with it as right now they’d be the 8th and final playoff team out West. Not much was expected from Memphis this year. Certainly not a playoff berth. But led by Ja Morant, they’ve really transformed and are currently on a 7-2 SU/ATS run. They did lose Friday in Philadelphia though. Both losses in the last nine games were on the road and by double digits. Washington is another team we expected little from this year and they’ve been more in line with that projection, coming in at 18-32. But they upset Dallas on Friday, right here at home, for what was their third win in four games. All those games have been at home and they were a three-point dog when they beat the Mavs 119-118. What we find significant about the line here is that Memphis has only been a road favorite three times previous to this. While they may be 14 games below .500, the Wizards are only 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So don’t look for them to pack it in anytime soon. They are 10-6 ATS as a home underdog, winning nine of those games straight up. They can score (115.6 points/game) and have won seven of nine home games overall. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-09-20 | Washington v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE Washington has lost seven out of eight, not to mention five straight. It should be pointed out that all but one of the losses (at Colorado) was by six points or fewer. Once ranked in the top 25, the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament dreams are now on life support. Obviously they can hardly afford another loss. But rival Washington State would love nothing more than to play “spoiler” here, just as they’ve done three of their past four home games. They weren’t as lucky last weekend, losing 66-49 to Arizona, but that’s one of the top teams in the Pac 12. Before that the Cougars had won three in a row here in Pullman, every time as an underdog. While neither team has played since last Saturday, we do know that Wazzu has won the last three times it has taken the floor with at least seven days rest. We also know Washington has failed to cover eight straight road games. The key to the Huskies’ slide has been the absence of PG Green, who was ruled academically ineligible last month. They’ve won just once without him and now are the last place team in the conference. Can’t back this young team laying points on the road. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-08-20 | Montana v. Idaho +8 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IDAHO To Big Sky country we go for this week’s top College Basketball side. Montana is leading this conference with a 9-3 record while Idaho is in last at 2-9. But Montana has a major problem when they hit the road as they’ve won just 3 times in 12 tries there and are also 3-9 ATS. They are laying a pretty decent sized number here, maybe not as large as what you’d typically think a first place team would be giving to a last place team. But the gap between first and last in the Big Sky just isn’t as large as it is in other conferences. Idaho lost by only four in Missoula last month, holding the Golden Grizzlies to only 67 points. They missed eight free throws, which cost them the game, but it was still an easy cover as 13-point underdogs. Based on that number and result, this line clearly is too high. Montana has only one conference road win by more than two points. Play on IDAHO AAA |
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02-08-20 | Virginia v. Louisville -7 | Top | 73-80 | Push | 0 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISVILLE There is a pretty big gap between the top three teams and everybody else in the ACC this year. What’s surprising is that last year’s National Champ Virginia is not among the three teams well ahead of the pack. The Cavaliers are currently running 4th in the standings, but this line is pretty indicative of the gap that exists between them and the three teams above them. Louisville is in first place having won 11 of its 12 ACC games. That one loss was a while ago as the Cardinals have won nine in a row, including at Duke. The last four Louisville wins have all come by double digits. What ails UVA this season is an offense that only scores an average 56.0 points/game. The average gets even lower on the road. They are just 276th in offensive efficiency nationally. This game means a lot to Louisville. They’ve lost nine in a row to Virginia. So there won’t be any kind of letdown. If anything, the favorite should be at its best this afternoon. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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02-07-20 | Iona +6.5 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IONA Iona continues to underperform as they are now 3-13 ATS this season following an UGLY 72-49 loss to Manhattan on Super Bowl Sunday. That was the Gaels third loss in a row. Although Sunday wasn’t one of them, there have been seven different times that the Gaels have lost a game outright that were favored to win. They’ll be underdogs again tonight in Quinnipiac, who isn’t exactly tearing it up against the rest of the MAAC either. The Bobcats lost 75-59 to Niagara on Sunday, their fourth double digit loss in the past six games. While a decent team at home, Quinnipiac just doesn’t have what it takes to cover this spread. They were favored in that loss to Niagara on Sunday and the last time they laid this many points was vs. St. Peter’s on 1.18, a game they promptly lost by 20. Iona is better than its record as tonight marks just the THIRD time in conference play that they are getting points. Can’t say the same for Quinnipiac. Play on IONA AAA |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After a four-game win streak that saw them upset Houston, the Lakers and Utah, Portland got severely humbled out in Denver Tuesday night. They lost 127-99 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was their worst defeat of the year, at least when it comes to margin. But now they return home for a big game against San Antonio. Both these teams are chasing the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Right now, the Blazers have a half game lead. San Antonio is on its annual “Rodeo Road Trip” and it hasn’t started well with losses to both the Clippers and Lakers. The Lakers got them by 27 on Tuesday so both teams are coming into this game off blowout losses. But it’s the Spurs third road game in four nights, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. The Spurs are 8-16 on the road. Damian Lillard has been on fire recently for Portland and should lead his team to an easy home victory tonight. Lay the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-06-20 | California v. Colorado -17 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO California might be a lot better now when compared to years past, but they still have yet to win a single game outside of Berkeley this season. They are 0 for 7. The three road games they’ve played against Pac 12 opponents have all been double digit losses with the average margin coming by just over 19 points/game. Despite being off three straight ATS wins (all at home) and an upset of Oregon State on Saturday, the Bears are up against it tonight in Boulder where they face a Colorado side that has been pretty impressive throughout 2019-20. The Buffaloes are 17-5 and ranked #24 in the latest AP Poll. They are definitely a top three team in the Pac 12. Saturday saw them go to USC and crush the Trojans 78-57. At home, they are averaging 76.2 points/game. That should be more than enough to cover tonight’s spread as Cal is averaging a rather pathetic 53.7 points/game on the road. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-05-20 | Heat v. Clippers -7 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS Today is the beginning of the most challenging part of the season for the Miami Heat. From now until Feb 20th (which is the first game after the All-Star Break), they’ll be on the road. We all know what the Heat are capable of at home where they’ve gone 22-3 and just destroyed Philadelphia 137-106. But obviously the road has been far less kind as the Heat have played only .500 ball, going 12-12. The long road trip starts against one of the best teams in the league and the Clippers can be pretty rude hosts themselves. LA is 21-5 at home and this will be their final time playing here before breaking for All Star Weekend. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both play, the Clippers are pretty unbeatable. WIth those two both in the lineup tonight, the game being on national television and it being the last home game before the All Star Break, look for a really solid effort from the home side. The Heat are 0-3 this year after a game in which they scored 130 or more points. Play LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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02-05-20 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame -6 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NOTRE DAME There is no doubt that the ACC is having a down year. There are three really good teams (Duke, L’ville, FSU), but beyond that no one is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Only five of the 15 members have winning records in conference play right now. Neither Pitt nor Notre Dame are among those five. But when it comes to positioning yourself for the ACC Tournament, winning games such as this are potentially huge. Notre Dame is just 3-4 SU its past seven games, however all four losses came by five points or fewer. They have won their last two, both here in South Bend where they are now 11-3 SU this season. Both wins were as favorites as they covered a nine-point spread vs. Wake Forest (won 90-80) and 6.5-point spread vs Ga Tech (won 80-72). This is a similar type matchup for the Fighting Irish. They average 79.9 points/game at home. Pitt averages only 63.9 points/game on the road. Two things we really like about this ND team are that they 1.) turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the country and 2.) send their opponents to the FT line at the lowest rate in the country. Pitt won’t score enough to cover here. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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02-04-20 | Auburn v. Arkansas +1 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARKANSAS While it now seems like a bit of “ancient history,” Auburn was one of the final two undefeated teams in College Basketball (only San Diego St still left). The Tigers suffered their first loss of the season back on January 19th as they were blown out in Alabama, 83-64. They followed that up with yet another blowout loss, also on the road, 69-47 at Florida. Four straight wins, the most recent being against Kentucky, have followed. But three of the four wins came at home. We can’t overlook those two road losses or the fact the only win on the road since then came by one point (83-82 at Ole Miss) in a double overtime game. Now the Tigers head to Arkansas to face a team that’s coming off a win at Alabama, 82-78 as 3.5-point underdogs. Auburn did not shoot well in the win over Kentucky, making only 35.3 percent of their total field goal attempts, which includes 6 of 23 from three-point range. A big reason Arkansas has been able to win 11 of its 13 home games this year is that they are allowing only 59.5 PPG. Auburn comes in ranked #11 in the country, which is clearly too high. They also have a giant lookahead to a home game vs. LSU this weekend. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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02-03-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 139-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND We’ve got two BAD teams facing off here, although the Knicks have surprisingly been playing better of late. They’ve gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, which includes a 106-86 win here in Cleveland back on MLK Day. On Saturday, the Knicks shocked the Pacers, winning 92-87 as 11-point underdogs. The Cavs have been terrible, with just one win in their past 11 games, but we like them to get revenge against the Knicks tonight. It’s been a LONG time since the Cavs won a game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. You’d have to go back to before Christmas when they won three in a row. Since then, it’s been 10 straight losses here, including an embarrassing one to Golden State on Saturday where they were favored and lost 131-112. We expect an “all hands on deck” approach to this one from the home side as this is a game Cleveland “knows” it can win. The Knicks have won as an underdog eight times previous to the win at Indiana. Only twice have they followed that up by winning again. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |