Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-15 | California +18.5 v. Arizona | Top | 60-99 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on California. |
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03-04-15 | Philadelphia 76ers +13 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia 76ers. |
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03-02-15 | Baylor v. Texas -2.5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. |
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02-28-15 | Drake v. Southern Illinois -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Southern Illinois. |
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02-28-15 | Louisville -4 v. Florida State | Top | 81-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Louisville. |
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02-27-15 | New York Knicks +13 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks. |
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02-26-15 | San Diego +17 v. Gonzaga | Top | 39-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on San Diego. |
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02-26-15 | Minnesota +9 v. Michigan State | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Minnesota. |
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02-26-15 | Wisconsin Milwaukee v. Wright State -2 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Wright State. |
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02-24-15 | Texas v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on West Virginia. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I played this line right when it came out and got 2.5 and it’s since gone up, but regardless, I really like this play. WVU looks to keep the momentum rolling after knocking off a pair of ranked teams, while Texas hasn’t beaten a Top 25 opponent since beating the Mountaineers just last month. The “revenge” factor is in full effect today. The Mountaineers have turned things around, they had dropped three of four before last Monday’s 62-61 home win over no. 8 Kansas and then Saturday’s 73-63 victory at then-No. 22 Oklahoma State: “We win because we play harder than everyone else," coach Bob Huggins said last night. "We don't win because we shoot better or pass better or anything like that." In fact, to call this a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Longhorns have won four straight in the series. Since that win over the Mountaineers, Texas has been free-falling and could miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. The Longhorns are most recently coming off a disheartening 71-69 loss at then-No. 17 Oklahoma on Tuesday and Saturday’s 85-77 defeat to then-No. 14 Iowa State. Note that Texas is just 3-4 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival this year, while WVU is 3-2 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this line should be larger, play on the MOUNTAINEERS. AAA Sports |
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02-23-15 | Austin Peay +14 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Austin Peay. Austin Peay has been officially eliminated from Ohio Valley Conference post-season competition and with all of the pressure off the Governors now, I expect the visitors to relish the role of spoiler and give Eastern Kentucky everything it can handle today. Interestingly, this game was scheduled to be played last Tuesday, but inclement weather forced the postponement. Eastern Kentucky is 8-5 in league play and trails Belmont by a game in the OVC East. The Colonels had been the conference’s hottest team before losing 66-61 to Belmont on Thursday and suffice it to say, in my opinion this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. After an extended streak of excellence, only to come up short vs. the No. 1 team, and now facing the lowly Governors, all signs do indeed point to a letdown spot. It was a brutal loss as well, EKU actually led by as much as 16 second-half points vs. Belmont. APSU on the other hand has lost seven straight and will be eager to play with some pride today after falling 89-54 at Murray State on Saturday. Note though that Austin Peay is 17-13 ATS in its last 30 vs. teams with winning records and 14-9 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that EKU is a poor 9-16 ATS in its last 25 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOVERNORS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-21-15 | Villanova v. Marquette +10.5 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR SUPER BLOWOUT on Marquette. I think the home side has enough significant advantages working in its favor to keep this game a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the conditions are finally right for Marquette to keep this one competitive. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the sixth-ranked Wildcats after winning seven straight. Also note that this is a revenge game for Marquette after losing by 18 in the first meeting between the schools this year. To me, there’s no question which side will be “hungrier,” the Golden Eagles have lost eight of their last nine, including four straight in front of the home town crowd. Marquette is expecting to get a boost today with the return of leading scorer Matt Carlino, who has been out with a concussion, missing the last three games including Saturday’s 77-70 setback to Creighton. Villanova is most recently coming off an 80-54 destruction of Seton Hall and I think won’t be able to help itself in coming in a bit complacent to this one, the exact opportunity that both Marquette and ourselves can take advantage of. And note that Villanova is already a poor 3-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Marquette is 4-3 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent this season, 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 6-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOLDEN EAGLES as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-18-15 | Wisconsin -9 v. Penn State | Top | 55-47 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN SUPER BLOWOUT on Wisconsin. For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The No. 5 Badgers average a paltry 7.4 turnovers this year, the lowest number in the nation. They’re averaging just 6.1 turnovers in Big Ten action and commited just one turnover in a 32-point win over Iowa last time out. The Badgers have won eight straight and five straight by double digits. The Badgers also already throttled the Nittany Lions 89-72 in the first meeting on December 31st, Wisconsin would shoot a ridiculous 70 percent in the second half and had four players score at least 16 points in the victory. I don’t think anything will change here, Penn State couldn’t handle the Badgers incredible depth then and they’re not going to be able to today. Nittany Lions’ coach Patrick Chambers knows his team will have its hands full today: “They’re all very capable of making 3s and they’re all very capable of getting 20, so we got to do our job,” Chambers assessed last night. “Everybody’s got to defend and rebound together and just leave it all out there and play as hard as we can.” I think Penn State comes out flat here, it’s coming off a disheartening three-point loss to then No. 19 Maryland on Saturday, the team’s fourth loss in its last five games. Also note that Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS this year in true road games, while Penn State is just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the BADGERS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-17-15 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a great situational play I think, the Fighting Irish have been winning some close games of late SU, but not ATS. I think this works in our favor today and expect Notre Dame to take advantage of a Wake Forest team that’s struggled on the road in ACC action this year. In fact, the Demon Deacons have lost 11 straight conference road contests. The Irish have a great chance at running the table and will look to run down first place-Virginia, currently just two games behind. Notre Dame is most recently coming off a 60-58 win at Clemson last Tuesday, overcoming a four-point deficit with 4:09 remaining. This also sets up for a revenge game for the Irish as Wake Forest would win all three previous meetings, including both last year. The Demon Deacons are primed for a letdown here in my opinion, they almost pulled off a massive upset over No. 1 Virginia on Saturday, instead the team would lose a 61-60 heartbreaker, getting outscored 37-29 in the second half. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Wake Forest is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS in its last nine when playing with five or six days of rest. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the FIGHTING IRISH. AAA Sports |
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02-15-15 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Nebraska. While I do feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think this sets up as a classic “spot” bet for us here, Nebraska will surely be the “hungrier” team after losing two straight, most recently a 65-55 loss to No. 5 Wisconsin on Tuesday; Terran Petteway led the way for the Huskers with 23 points and eight boards in the setback. Nebraska will also be eager to notch its first Big Ten road win of the season and it will have to continue its tough defensive play, holding its opposition to just 60.6 points per game on 40 percent shooting this season (note surprisingly, the Huskers are tied for first in scoring defense and fourth in field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten). Purdue has been awesome, but has been playing “over its head” in my opinion so far this year, it’s not too hard to imagine the Boilermakers coming in a bit complacent here after winning five of their last six, including a 61-51 win at Rutgers on Thursday night. These teams are actually pretty evenly matched in my opinion, more so than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, but from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that Nebraska is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NEBRASKA as the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-15-15 | St. Peters v. Canisius -3.5 | Top | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Canisius. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. A favorite saying of mine is: “desperation breeds motivation,” and the Golden Griffins will unquestionably be the “hungrier” team in this one in my opinion as they look to break their longest losing slide since 2011, dropping their last four straight after falling 60-59 to Rider on Friday. Canisius ranks second in the MAAC and 69th in the country in scoring defense in giving up just 61.7 PPG. Offensively the team is led by senior Josiah Heath, who scored a career-high 20 points in the loss to the Broncs on Friday. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine Saint Peter’s coming in a bit complacent here, it’s won three straight, most recently a 77-65 victory over Niagara on Friday. I’m not going to read too much into the recent win skein, note that the Peacock’s are still middle of the pack at 13-13 overall and just 7-8 in MAAC play. This is a classic matchup of top defenses, as Saint Peter’s actually leads the MAAC in scoring defense at 60.5. Note though that the Peacocks are just 2-4 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival, while Canisius is 6-5 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOLDEN GRIFFINS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-14-15 | Texas Tech +16.5 v. Texas | Top | 41-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Texas Tech. While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright victory in this one, I do feel that for a number of different reasons the visitors will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is the 135th meeting between the two schools. To say this is a “revenge game” would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Longhorns have won four of the last five, most recently a 70-61 victory on January 3rd in Lubbock. Texas Tech coach Smith sees a different team now than the one that took the court at the beginning of the year: "We are not the same team we were at the beginning of the season," Smith explained last night. "We have tried some different things to be successful and used some different lineup, but what we have to do to be successful is play under control." Note, that despite struggling with SU victories vs. Texas, the Red Raiders have in fact faired extremely well ATS for bettors, going 6-2 ATS the last eight in the series overall and 5-1 ATS their last six vs. the Longhorns on their own floor. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to TEXAS TECH as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-14-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +4.5 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Ball State. While I obviously feel that the outright win is not out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to take this one down to the wire and at the very least, look for it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the hand full of points that it’s been afforded. It’s hard not to imagine Bowling Green coming in a bit complacent and looking past its lowly opponent today, it’s 16-6 overall and 8-3 in the MAC, while the Cardinals are only 7-15 overall and just 2-9 in league play. Not surpirsingly, this is a revenge game for Ball State after it fell 58-46 on the Falcons’ home floor just last month; however, what may be surprising to learn is that the Cardinals actually held a half time lead in that one. Ball State is most recently coming off a 75-63 loss at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, leading for much of the opening half, but an unreal 70-percent shooting performance by the Huskies in the second half proved too much to overcome. Bowling Green sports one of the better defending units, but I think the situational and motivational factors clearly tip the scales in favor of BALL STATE today. AAA Sports |
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02-14-15 | NC State +11 v. Louisville | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on North Carolina State. While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think the the Wolfpack can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. NC State is 14-11 overall and just 5-7 in league play, and suffice it to say a big win today would dramatically help its NCAA Tournament resume which has taken a hit of late. The Wolfpack have lost six of eight since upsetting Duke, including a tough 51-47 loss to No. 2 Virginia on Wednesday. The Cardinals are 20-4 overall and 8-3 in ACC action. To say NC State is is focused would be a bit of an understatement I think: "We might as well just hang up our stuff and go home if we're not going to keep dreaming and believing we can make the tournament," Wolfpack guard Trevor Lacey said after Wednesday's loss to Virginia. It’s not too hard to imagine Louisville coming in a bit complacent here, it’s in the midst of six straight vs. unranked teams before finishing against No. 10 Notre Dame and the aforementioned No. 2 Cavaliers. The Cardinals won for the fifth time in six games in a 69-56 victory over Pittsburgh on February 11th. Despite playing on Wednesday, NC State will definitely be fresh here, it had a full eight days off before the setback to Virginia and note that four of its five most recent losses have been by five points or fewer. In my opinion, this spread is a little large, play on NC STATE. AAA Sports |
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02-13-15 | Arizona v. Washington +10.5 | Top | 86-62 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Washington. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do think that the home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for the home side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. After a rare and stunning defeat, I think this sets up as classic letdown spot for the Wildcats. Conversely, Washington is looking to avoid its longest losing streak in more than 13 years, there’s no question in my mind which team will be the more focused and “hungry.” Arizona is coming off an 81-78 setback to rival Arizona State on Saturday, it was the team’s third road defeat vs. an unranked opponent. The Wildcats looked susceptible defensively, allowing the Sun Devils to shoot 50.0 percent from the field. Washington will look to take advantage, after winning his first 11 games and reaching No. 13 in the AP poll, Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar finds himself in one of the longest losing streaks in his tenure. Note though that Washington hasn’t dropped six straight since 2001: “We're not going to be able to show up and just win games based on our overall talent level," Romar said last night. "We're going to have to win games by being gritty and blue collar." It’s true that Washington is without the services of 7-foot center Robert Upshaw, who was dismissed for violating team rules, but Nigel Williams-Goss has filled in admirably in averaging 20.0 points over his last four. This is a revenge game as well for the home side after losing three straight in the series. Note that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS on the road this year and only 13-16 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to WASHINGTON as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-12-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida -4.5 | Top | 62-61 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Florida. For a number of different reasons I think that Florida will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge game for the Gators after falling 72-71 to the Running Rebels in Oxford back on January 24th. Florida has lost two straight, but was very competitive against Kentucky on Saturday night and think that play gets carried over here. Ole Miss also took both games for bettors ATS in last year’s season series with the Gators and suffice it to say, I don’t see it happening for a fourth straight time. Desperation is a factor in which the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s the case here, I think the home side will clearly be the “hungrier” team today and expect it to play with the same intensity and fire which took Kentucky down to the final minutes. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Mississippi is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival, while Florida is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, all signs and factors do indeed point to the GATORS as the sharp move in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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02-11-15 | Penn State v. Ohio State -11 | Top | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Penn State has lost seven straight Big Ten road games, but it’s victory at then-No. 24 Ohio State last season is its only win in its last 18 road contests against Top 25 opponents. The Buckeyes haven’t forgotten that “brain fart,” and despite being without the services of the nation’s top 3-point shooter in Marc Loving, who is serving the second game of an indefinite suspension, I think all of the conditions are right for a blowout. Besides, the Buckeyes’ best overall player in D’ Angelo Russell is on fire right now, he had 23 points, 11 assists and 11 boards in 35 minutes of action in a 79-60 win at Rutgers on Sunday. Not surprisingly, Russell is a serious contendor for the Big Ten Player of the Year award. Ohio State comes in with plenty of momentum as well, recent performance always plays a part in my handicapping process and the Buckeyes are “hot” overall in having won three of their last four SU. From a situational/motivational stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this, not only did OSU lose to the Nittany Lions at home, but it also lost at Penn State, dropping both games last year. Penn State’s DJ Newbill would total 48 points in those two games and is one of the league’s best players, but he’s been stumbling of late, he was held to just 11 points and matched a season worst with six turnovers in his team’s 56-43 win over Nebraska on Saturday. The Nittany Lions have been surprisingly competitve this year I think, there’s some room to read between the lines, despite averaging just 59.0 points and shooting only 40.1 percent, Penn State has lost its last five on the road by an average of just 4.2 points. Suffice it to say, I think its offensive inefficiencies finally come come back to bite it today. As stated many times already, I think this is a great situational selection, play on OHIO STATE. AAA Sports |
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02-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -2 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. What more can be said about Atlanta right now that hasn’t literally been said a million times by every NBA analyst in America, after a 19-game win streak ended in New Orleans, the team has bounced back with two straight victories, including a 124-116 home win over Golden State on Friday. But now the team travels across the country to face the West’s second best team and in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors (note that the Hawks were outrebounded 51-38 in the win over the Warriors). This is also a revenge game for the Grizzlies after they fell 96-86 in Atlanta back on January 7th; note though that the Grizzlies were playing the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and did not have the services of Zach Randolph at the time. Memphis has won 12 of its 14 games since that setback. The home side will also be particuarly motivated after falling 90-89 at West-worst Minnesota on Friday. And a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered as the Grizzlies are 8-1 vs. the East at home this year. A great situational play in my opinion, play on MEMPHIS. AAA Sports |
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02-07-15 | Providence v. Xavier -7 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Xavier. For a number of different reasons I think the home side will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that PC has posted an 0-3 mark against Xavier in Cincinnati and the Musketeers will be playing with revenge today after falling 69-66 in OT on January 22nd. Xavier has a 14-9 overall record, including just 5-6 in Big East play, the Musketeers will be particuarly motivated today after falling 79-72 to Creighton in OT on February 4th. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Providence, it has to be feeling contented after winning three of its last four BIG EAST road games, that includes an extremely satisfying 74-71 victory over the Hoyas in Georgetown on Wednesday. Note that Providence is just 14-16 ATS in its last 30 road games, while Xavier is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to XAVIER as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-04-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Whether Thunder star Kevin Durant plays or not, I think that there are enough motivational and situational factors working in favor of the visitors today and expect them to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This sets up as a natuarl let down spot for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans after they beat the Hawks 115-110 on Monday, breaking Atlanta’s winning streak at 19 straight. If you watched that game, you may have thought that New Orleans had won Game 7 of the NBA Finals after the win. While it was a solid victory, it was a bit dramatic in my opinion and suffice it to say, after that emotional and clearly satisfying REGULAR SEASON win, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to a letdown here for the home side. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it’s also a double revenge scenario for OKC, most recently a 101-99 setback at home on December 21st to the Pelicans, a game in which Durant sat out due to injury as well. The Thunder can still win and play without Durant, Russell Westbrook and company will also be highly motivated to end a four-game road losing streak; however, take note that the visitors do come in with some momentum after beating Orlando 104-97 on Monday, Westbrook posted his second triple-double of the year with 25 points, 14 assists and 11 boards. A great spot bet, two classic “spots” are working against the home side, I think the THUNDER can take advantage and take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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02-04-15 | Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Wizards. I think this is a great situational play and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the “hungry” Wizards to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Atlanta finally fell in a 115-110 loss to New Orleans on Tuesday and I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. It’s hard not to imagine the Hawks having a mental lapse today after winning 19 straight, equaling the fifth-longest single-season winning streak in league history; note that the team would go 9-0 on the road during the epic win skein. Now also throw in the “look ahead” factor with West leading Golden State coming to town on Friday, then this play gets even stronger. And then now also throw in the fact that the Wizards play with “double revenge” from this season alone, including an embarrassing 120-89 rout on January 11th. And finally, Washington will clearly be focused on the task at hand, it’s dropped three straight overall coming into this one, the last two both coming by just four points. The Hawks run was impressive, but I’m not even close to “crowning their asses” yet, the situational factors are overwhelming and they all point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-04-15 | Massachusetts v. Fordham +6 | Top | 78-72 | Push | 0 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE ROUT on Fordham. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While the Minutemen are 3-1 in A-10 play this year, UMass is just 3-5 on the road overall. Note that four of the last five between these school’s have been decided by four points or less. This is also a double revenge spot for the home side after losing both games to UMass last season. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part I am basing this selection on strong trend based reasons, as note that Massachusetts is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that Fordham is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range and 16-12 ATS in its last 28 after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FORDHAM as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-04-15 | Temple v. South Florida +7 | Top | 61-48 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on South Florida. For a number of different reasons I think that the home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and expect it to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. South Florida has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and will be especially motivated here after coming off a near upset of conference-leader Tulsa on Saturday, eventually succumbing 78-71 in OT on Saturday. Previous to that USF would trail by just four points midway in its 63-52 loss to SMU which is currently ranked No. 23 in the nation, while in the game prior to that the Bulls lost 66-53 at defending national champion UConn after cutting the deficit to two points midway through the second half. One player to keep your eyes on today is the Bulls Corey Allen Jr., who had 30 points for the second time this year in the team’s last setback. It’s been close but no cigar for the Bulls, there’s no question in my mind they’ll be the “hungrier” team today. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Temple which is coming off a 55-37 win over Tulane on Saturday, the team’s third consecutive victory. And note that this sets up as a revenge game for the home side after it fell 73-48 on January 22nd in Philadelphia. Note that Temple is just 4-6 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while USF is 5-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival this season and already 1-0 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SOUTH FLORIDA as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-03-15 | Evansville v. Illinois State -6.5 | Top | 51-77 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois State. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Evansville leads the MVC in scoring offense and field goal percentage, but I think will have its hands full today with the league’s leader in rebounding margin and steals. The Redbirds come in with plenty of momentum after winning two straight and have in fact prevailed in four of their last five. Evansville on the other hand is coming in off its first loss in three games and I think this sets up as another classic letdown spot for it. If history is any precedence, then Illinois State has to be loving its chances as it’s 18-3 vs. the Purple Aces at Redbird Arena. Both teams enter this game tied for fourth in the MVC and I simply can’t understate how important I believe home court advantage will be in this matchup; note that both of last season’s Illinois State vs. Evansville games ended in OT, with the home team prevailing on both occasions. Note that Evansville is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Illinois State is 20-18 ATS in its last 38 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, a great situational play on ILLINOIS STATE. AAA Sports |
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02-02-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Washington Wizards -7.5 | Top | 92-88 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Wizards are on the verge of their longest skid of the year in front of the home town crowd after a 21-point rally came up short in a 120-116 OT setback to the Raptors on Saturday. Whether John Wall plays or not matters not in my opinion, Washington is loaded and will certainly be the “hungrier” team here in my opinion. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hornets have won three in a row over the Wizards, including three of the past four in the Nation’s capital. But with a game between the teams in Charlotte on Thursday, I think it just lends weight to the home side playing its heart out tonight. And note that Charlotte is just 3-5 ATS vs. division opponents this year, while Washington is 25-22 ATS in its last 47 after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -102 | 327 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BOWL SUPER SIDE on the Seattle Seahawks. For a number of different reasons I think that the Seattle Seahawks are going to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. What more can be said about these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses which hasn’t literally been said a million times by now by every talking head and analyst in North America. Both teams are extremely well coached. New England revolves around the play of veteran QB Tom Brady; simply put, if Brady has an “off” day, then the Patriots have no chance at winning this game, or any game for that matter. The Pats improved tremendously from last year though, they are a much more complete team overall, getting balanced running and a much more competent defense and secondary. The Seahawks also have one of the best QB’s in the league guiding them, as Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s most dynamic overall pivots, able to make plays with both his arm and his feet. However, if Wilson has an “off day”, the Seahawks are still able to win games and it’s this factor which I believe will prove to be the difference here. Certainly Wilson was not at his best in the Conference Championship win over the Green Bay Packers, and while the Hawks may have been “lucky” to win that contest, a combination of the league’s best defense and a strong running game would support Wilson and give him a chance to redeem himself in the final moments. The Patriots simply don’t have the same ability whatsoever. To me, this game seems eerily familiar to last year’s Super Bowl when the Seahawks destoryed Peyton Manning and the Broncos and while the oddsmakers are giving the defending champs a lot more respect this time around, I definitely don’t think it’s enough. I won’t be throwing out any ATS stats or trends today, obviously in a game like this they are meaningless. I simply feel that SEATTLE is the better overall team and expect this incredible depth on both sides of the ball to prove to be the difference in the outcome. AAA Sports |
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01-31-15 | Arkansas State +15 v. Georgia State | Top | 43-74 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Arkansas State. While the outright win is almost assuredly out of the question, I do believe the visitors can catch the home side a bit complacent today and look for them to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very generous amount of points afforded to them in this one. The Red Wolves held a 39-28 advantage on the board vs. UALR on Thursday, but would wind up falling 75-65. Arkansas State plays with revenge here though after falling 60-54 to the Panthers at the Convocation Center on January 19th, Georgia State’s fourth-straight in the series. But as mentioned off the top, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the home side after winning five of its last six, most recently picking up a satisfying 88-74 road win at UT Arlington on Thursday. A-State can perform on the road though, it’s 6-5 so far away from friendly confines, most recently picking up a win at Troy last Saturday, and not surpisingly has gone 7-4 ATS. Note that Arkansas State is also 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that Georgia State is 2-4 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I do indeed feel this is a few too many points to be giving up, grab as many as you can with ARKANSAS STATE. AAA Sports |
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01-29-15 | Utah v. UCLA +6.5 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on UCLA. While I do believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Utah is one of the best teams in the country and already dismantled the Bruins 71-39 on January 4th, making the “revenge factor” a very real scenario in this one. Note though that the Utes have not won in Los Angeles in over 53 years, dropping two road meetings since joining the Pac-12 in 2011/12 by a combined 41 points there. Utah is rolling on both ends of the court, but I think will have its hands full vs. the “hungrier” team, clearly UCLA will be looking to not only atone for the earlier loss to the Utes, but also its 1-2 road swing which ended in back-to-back defeats. Note though that the Bruins are already 1-0 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games and are 6-4 ATS in all home games. I think the situational conditions favor the home side, play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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01-27-15 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -5.5 | Top | 40-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Eastern Michigan. Both of these teams enter this game struggling, but for a number of different reasons, I look for EMU to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Simply put, I can’t understate how important I believe home court advantage will be in this one. Ohio is 7-10 overall and 2-4 in MAC play, while Eastern Michigan is 12-7 overall and 1-5 in league action. This is almost a do or die scenario for both schools, a victory would help boost momentum for the victors moving forward. EMU is coming off two consecutive losses on the road, one to Bowling Green and ont Central Michigan. But note, the last time it played at home it would get its first MAC win over Northern Illinois. A date vs. the toothless Bobcats is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, despite owning a better overall MAC record, I think the Eagles present many matchup issues for Ohio. I also believe this also sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors after they beat Buffalo 63-61 at home last time out on a final last second dunk. Note that Ohio has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season as well, just 1-3 ATS in true road games and a poor 2-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And note that this is in fact a position in which EMU has excelled in by going 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. A great situational play in my opinion, lay the points on EASTERN MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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01-25-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +17 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Minnesota Timberwolves. I played this line right when it came out, it’s since gone up a bit as of writing, but may settle back down to 16.5, but regardless, I love this pick and think that the lowly Wolves can catch the surprising home side a bit complacent here and expect them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. What more can be said about the Atlanta Hawks right now that hasn’t literally been said by every NBA analyst across North American a million times by now, obviously the team is playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. I won’t try to convince you that the Wolves are a good team which has just been unlucky this season, injuries and other factors have Minnesota in the cellar for a reason, it’s a club which is in transition this season. However, what I would point out is that after covering 13 straight games and with contests vs. Minnesota today and Brooklyn (just 18-25) on Wednesday, there’s no question in my mind that this short stretch vs. the league’s worst teams definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the home side. Conversely, the Wolves have lost three straight (both SU and ATS) and will be “hungry” to not get blown out here with the knowledge that the eyes of the basketball World are all on the city of Atlanta right now. I think this is a few too many points, grab as many as you can with the WOLVES. AAA Sports |
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01-24-15 | Arizona v. California +12.5 | Top | 73-50 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on California. Arizona is ranked No. 7 in the country, it’s 17-2 overall, which includes going 5-1 in league play. California is 11-8 overall, but just 1-5 in Pac-12 action thus far. Desperation breeds motivation though, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset in this one, for a number of different reasons I think that the Golden Bears will keep this one a lot more competitve than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and expect them to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. These teams split a pair of games last year, Cal would win 60-58 at home as a 6 point underdog, before then falling 87-59 as a 12.5 point underdog in Arizona. California will certainly be the more motivated side, it’s lost five straight and seven of its last eight overall; conversely, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors after three straight league wins. This play is however mainly based on strong trends, note that the Wildcats have in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, just 2-5 ATS their last seven true road contests. And note, Cal has always “upped” its game vs. Arizona as evidenced by the fact that it’s 3-1-1 ATS in its last five vs. it in front of the home town crowd (also note that the Golden Bears are 11-5 SU their last 16 at home overall). Grab as many points as you can with CALIFORNIA. AAA Sports |
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01-24-15 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Michigan State. MSU is coming off a 66-60 win over Penn State on Wednesday, Tom Izzo’s team is 13-6 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten action. Nebraska is coming off a 52-49 win over Minnesota, but is just 11-7 overall, including only 3-3 in league play. The Huskers are going to have their hands full today in my opinion, note that the team ranks near the bottom of almost every single statisical category there is; 251st in points per game, 207th in rebounds per game, 314th in assists per game and 202nd in field goal percentage. Michigan State on the other hand ranks 56th, 28th, 3rd and 30th respectively. These two teams may be in the same conference, but they’re no where even close to being in the same ballpark when it comes to overall talent and execution in these major categories. The Spartans also present a massive matchup problem in the paint for the Huskers; also note that MSU is the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten. As good as Nebraska’s defensive play has been this year, note that the Huskers are a poor 1-4 SU the last five in this series, while the Spartans are 15-8 SU their last 23 away from friendly confines. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MICHIGAN STATE as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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01-24-15 | UCLA v. Oregon -3 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon. For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done ATS today. As I like to say, “desperation breeds motivation,” there’s no question in my mind which team will be the hungrier today as the Ducks have lost three consecutive games. Both these teams are actually hovering around the bottom of league standings, UCLA won three straight before then regressing in its 66-55 loss at Oregon State last time out. The Bruins are ranked as the No. 6 team in the nation with 41.3 rebounds per game, but the Ducks are right behind at No. 19, averaging 39.8 per contest. Oregon has an advantage in the backcourt I think, the Bruins actually have the highest scoring guards in the conference, but the combination of the Ducks three-guard scheme will give the duo a lot of trouble in my opinion. Also note, UCLA is extremely thin, it uses a seven man rotation, we can expect Oregon to pound the ball down low as to get the Bruins in foul trouble and then UCLA will simply have no one to turn to. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that UCLA is a brutal 1-8 ATS in its last nine true road games, while Oregon is 20-2 SU its last 22 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the DUCKS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls. Chicago has been struggling of late, but a game vs. the defending and surging NBA champions is just what the doctor ordered to get re-focused in my opinion, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Bulls are most recently coming off a 108-94 loss at Cleveland on Monday, the team’s sixth setback in its last eight games. There’s no time like the present to turn things around though, Chicago next visits Dallas, Miami and then NBA-best Golden State: “We've got to decide when enough is enough," Bulls’ coach Tom Thibodeau assessed last night. "We're going to look at everything, come in, look at the film, get to work; we've got to get better. It's that simple. The way we are playing is not acceptable, so we've got to change it." Clearly the issue with the Bulls has been their play on the defensive end of the court, normally the strength of the team, Chicago has given up more than 100 points in five consecutive games, something it hasn’t done since 2010: “It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," star guard Derrick Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." San Antonio endured a tough stretch as well but comes in red hot, it’s won four straight and eight of ten, most recently thumping Denver 109-99 on Tuesday. Two teams moving in opposite directions, but as I always like to say: “desperation breeds motivation.” I think we’ll see a highly concerted effort from the home side in this one, this game is basically a must win with three tough road contests in a row on the horizon. Chicago may be a bit banged up, but from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Spurs are just 3-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 7-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that the Bulls are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. As I said off the top, I’ll hardly be surprised if CHICAGO wins this one outright. AAA Sports |
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01-21-15 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 113-126 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets. Some times I believe it’s necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, and in others I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a game. That’s the case here. These are a couple of the league’s best and hottest teams going head to head, but so far Golden State has gotten the better of Houston this season, it’s taken all three games both SU and ATS. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor and one which simply can’t be overlooked today in my opinion, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up and look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Also note that this is a spot the Rockets have performed admirably in for bettors already this season, 12-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note, this is in fact a position in which the Warriors have struggled in going just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 85 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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01-21-15 | Indiana Pacers +11.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indiana Pacers. For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Anyone that’s followed me for any length of time knows that I am primarily a situational handicapper. That said, I don’t conform to any one particular handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one’s approach is the best way to take advantage of longterm profits. One angle that I do always like to take advantage of is lopsided numbers or trends. Atlanta is playing unbelievably this season, it’s 18-2 SU in its last 20 and an amazing 17-3 ATS, covering the spread in its last 11 straight. Indiana had more questions than answers coming into this season and wasn’t expected to do that well, it’s certainly been struggling of late, not only has it lost five straight SU, it’s also lost six straight ATS. While I will admit that the “Law of averages” is flawed in many ways, I have always believed that lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. These two massively lop-sided trends collide on Wednesday night, in my opinion clearly putting the value on the Pacers in this one. Now throw in the fact that the visitors play with double revenge from two losses this season, and this play becomes even stronger. But finally, take note that this is a spot that Indiana has actually performed very well in for bettors as it’s 14-9 ATS on the road this year and 13-6 ATS after a non-conference game. And note that this is a position in which the Hawks have actually struggled in, they’re a poor 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less (coming off a 93-82 win over the Pistons on Monday). While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do think that the writing is on the wall and a competitive game is in the cards, grab as many points as you can with the PACERS. AAA Sports |
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01-21-15 | North Carolina -8 v. Wake Forest | Top | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina. North Carolina looked shaky in a 68-53 home win over Virginia Tech on Sunday and because of that, I believe it will come into tonight’s game extremely focused and look for it to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. The Tar Heels are 14-4 overall, including 4-1 in league play and have won three in a row and eight of nine, but committed an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers vs. the Hokies: “I don't think we're a stupid team, but every team plays stupid at times," UNC Coach Roy Williams said afterwards. "We're going to try to get better." This is also a revenge game for the visitors who would commit 17 turnovers that Wake Forest turned into 19 points in a 73-67 road defeat last January 5th. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for the Tar Heels though, they shot 44.1 percent and held Virginia Tech to 35.8 while outrebounding it 49-22, including 16-4 on the offensive glass. The Deacons have averaged 76 points over their last five games, but note that they rank last in the ACC in scoring defense (69.1 PPG) and defensive field-goal percentage (43.7). Wake Forest comes in deflated here after a heart-breaking 86-83 OT loss to Syracuse on Tuesday. I think all of the situational conditions are in place for a rout, play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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01-19-15 | Florida State +6 v. Clemson | Top | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Florida State. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for FSU to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. If history is any precedence, then the Seminoles have to be loving their chances here as they’ve won five of their last six vs. the Tigers. In fact FSU has won two consecutive games at Clemson in addition to two wins at home in Tallahassee and one win in the 2013 ACC Tournament over the Tigers. The Seminoles will be extra motivated today as well though as they’ve yet to win a true road game this year. The Tigers have shown promise this year, but note that this is a position in which they’ve really struggled in for bettors as they’re just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games and a poor 7-9 ATS in their last 16 off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that FSU has been money in the bank in this spot, a great 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-19-15 | Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons. For a number of different reasons I think that the surprising Detroit Pistons will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the surprising Atlanta Hawks. The Pistons have won seven straight on the road and have been a completely different team since releasing Josh Smith. I think Atlanta finally has a letdown here, it’s coming off back to back victories in Chicago and Toronto, Saturday’s 107-99 victory over the Bulls matched the franchise’s second-longest win streak. While obviously not always, success does breed complacency, there’s no question in my mind which will be the “hungrier” team today, the Pistons play with “double revenge” from this season alone, the latest was a 106-103 setback in Detroit on January 9th. After a 5-23 start, Detroit has gone 4-1 its last five, which is part of an 11-2 stretch that now has it just one game out of the final playoff spot in the East. Most recently the Pistons destroyed Philadelphia 107-89 on Saturday. Note that during their win streak on the road, the Pistons have won by an average of 11.6 points per game with big time wins in San Antonio, Dallas and Toronto. Simply put, Detroit is a team that competes away from friendly confines. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Pistons are 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 5-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. And note that Atlanta is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. I think the writing is on the wall and an extremely competitive battle is in the cards, while I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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01-17-15 | NC State v. Florida State +3 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC ASSASSIN on Florida State. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Seminoles are 8-2 overall at home and have won five straight in the Donald L. Tucker Center. Most recently Florida State would kick off its nine-game ACC home schedule with an 86-75 victory over the Hokies on January 6th. But this is a great situational play in my opinion, as FSU will definitely be looking to take full advantage of this spot, this contest is sandwiched around four road games, two on both sides of the Wolfpack. If history is any precedence, then FSU has to be loving its chances today, the last time these teams played at the Donald L. Tucker Center, the Seminoles defeated NC State 71-67 on March 9th, 2013. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that NC State is just 11-12 ATS in its last 23 true road games, while Florida State is already 4-3 ATS at home. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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01-17-15 | Rutgers v. Minnesota -12.5 | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota. For a number of different reasons, I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Rutgers makes its first ever appearance in the Barn in a Big Ten Conference matchup, a contest which I feel is of crtical importance for the Gophers who have yet to notch a victory in league play. Minnesota most recently loss 77-75 to Iowa on Tuesday. Amazingly, the Gophers have dropped four of their five games by five points or fewer, including a pair of two-point defeats. I think it’s important to note though that the Gophers would finish with an 11-2 non-conference schedule, including a perfect 9-0 at home. Rutgers is 2-3 in conference play and also comes into this contest off a loss, a 73-65 setback in College Park vs. the Terps and I think will once again have its hands full today vs. a Minnesota team which ranks second nationally in steals per game (11.1) and sixth in assists (17.8), ranking it first and second among Big Ten schools in those departments. And note, from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much better than this as Rutgers is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Minnesota is already a great 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more this season. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all clearly point to the GOLDEN GOPHERS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-13-15 | Georgetown -6 v. DePaul | Top | 78-72 | Push | 0 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Georgetown. For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Hoyas come into this game at 10-5 and actually have a strength of schedule rated No. 8 in the country. Georgetown would split a pair of games last week, beating Marquette at home 65-59, before then falling 60-57 at Providence in OT on Tuesday. But if history is any precedence, the Hoyas have to be loving their chances here, they’ve won 14 of the last 15 in the series overall including a 71-59 victory on the road last year. However note, Georgetown will be playing with revenge after the Blue Demons posted a 60-56 upset in the BIG EAST Tournament. DePaul on the other hand enters Tuesday’s game with a 9-8 overall record and a 3-1 mark in the BIG EAST after an 81-64 setback at Villanova on Saturday. This play however is mainly based on strong trend based reasons as note that Georgetown is 2-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less and 11-5 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that DePaul is interestingly just 1-5 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-11-15 | Youngstown State +16.5 v. Wisconsin Green Bay | Top | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Youngstown State. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I bet against Green Bay on Friday and Milwaukee would fall apart down the stretch. The Phoenix are 13-3 overall and 2-0 in Horizon League play. However, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot vs. the lowly Penguins, who have lost four straight in the series. Youngstown State will certainly be the “hungrier” team, it’s coming off a tough 70-61 home loss to Wright State on January 8th. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part this play is based on strong trends, note that the Penguins are 4-2 ATS in their last six as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while the Phoenix are a poor 2-3 ATS in their last five when playing with one or less days of rest. In my opinion, this spread is a little high, play on YOUNGSTOWN STATE. AAA Sports |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +12.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -130 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers. I bet against the Panthers last week, but that was then and this is now; while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Making the playoffs and then succeeding in the postseason has a lot to do with timing and team chemistry. Seattle definitely looks like it has the pieces in place to make another run at the Super Bowl title, it enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. After a slow start the Seahawks would finally find some chemistry at the midway point and have been virtually unstoppable since. Carolina on the other hand was in a dog fight all year in the lowly NFC South, but managed to finally put it all together in the last few weeks and also comes into this game with momentum and confidence. I simply don’t feel that the bookmakers are giving enough respect to Carolina’s defense or to QB Cam Newton who is reportedly near 100% health. Carolina has an effective run game, which will be useful in keeping the Seattle offense off the field. I think these teams are much more evently matched than what the spread is saying. Note that the Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent (lost 13-9 at home to the Hawks back on November 26th); and note that Seattle is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 points or more. In my opinion, this number is just a little high, play on CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -102 | 132 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots. I played the Ravens last week and they would go on to upset the Steelers 30-17 in Pittsburgh. Pulling off another epic upset on the road is not in the cards in my opinion, I believe that home field advantage is a big factor today and expect the determined Patriots to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. What more can be said about these teams that hasn’t literally been said millions of times by all the “talking heads” across the nation for the last 15 years? If you are wagering on this game, you are clearly a fan of the NFL and don’t need to be told by me about the obvious strengths and weaknesses of each side. I am not a coach, a scout or a player evaluator. I am a professional sports handicapper. Some handicappers look at individual player matchups, while others (like myself), are “situational” prognosticators, which means that for the most part, it doesn’t matter who is on the field of play. And that’s definitely the case for me, 95% of the time I base my picks on “situations”, which includes motivational factors and scheduling etc. It’s hard to win on the road in the NFL and it’s extremely difficult to win away from friendly confines in the Playoffs. Are the Ravens a team of destiny? In my opinion, the answer is clearly: no! New England struggled to start the year but a rejuvinated Tom Brady would turn his performance around and the Pats would win 10 of their last 12 SU. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New England is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the PATRIOTS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-10-15 | Louisville +3.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Louisville. For a number of different reasons I think that visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they’ve been afforded. North Carolina is coming off a disheartening 71-70 loss to the Fighting Irish and I think is primed for another letdown here. There is now so much pressure on the Tar Heels to win this game, that I think these young players will crack under the pressure. If UNC doesn’t win, it’ll be out of the regular season title race as a loss would make it the third consecutive season that it held a losing record through the first three conference games. Louisville is one of the best defending teams in the country and I simply can’t see the struggling Tar Heels contending with that full court pressure for an entire game. UNC has also struggled defensively of late, allowing the Irish to shoot 46 percent from the floor. From a trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this either, as note that Louisville is a superb 11-1 SU its last 12 on the road, while UNC is a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after giving up 70 points or more. As mentioned off the top, while I believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on LOUISVILLE. AAA Sports |
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01-09-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Wisconsin Milwaukee +9.5 | Top | 79-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Milwaukee. While I do feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Milwaukee beat Green Bay both times last year but is just 5-11 this season, including 0-2 in league play. The Phoenix are 12-3 overall, and 1-0 in Horizon league action. In my opinion, there’s no question which team will be “hungrier” today as the Panthers return home after a month away from UWM Panther Arena, in search for their first win since a 73-58 win over Montana back on December 14th. Milwaukee has been shooting the ball better of late though, it connected on 47 percent of its field goal tries in a setback to Detroit on Sunday. This sets up as a natural letdown spot for Green Bay in my opinion, it’s won three straight and seven of its last eight, but now faces an extremely determined home side which is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after three or more consecutive SU defeats. And note that Green Bay is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its previous contest. As I like to say, “Desperation breeds motivation.” Play on WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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01-09-15 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 95-100 | Push | 0 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Antonio Spurs. For a number of different reasons I think that the home side is the savvy move here. Despite Phoenix being one of the hottest clubs in the league right now, it’s rarely had any success whatsoever in San Antonio and I definitley think that strong trend of futility continues in this one. The Spurs will be especially motivated to return to their winning ways after losing 105-104 to Detroit on Tuesday, a game in which they were ahead by three with ten seconds, only to fall for the eighth time in 12 games. Phoenix is 10-2 since mid December, but needed to hold on for dear life in Tuesday’s 113-111 victory over Minnesota. But as mentioned off the top, the Suns have struggled in San Antonio, losing nine of the last ten there. Also note that the Spurs will be playing with the revenge factor after falling 94-89 in Phoenix back on October 31st. It’s a perfect situation for us to take advantage of, the home side is without question the “hungrier” team, while the Suns come in a bit complacent. And from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Phoenix is just 8-9 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is 6-2 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to the SPURS as the correct call in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-07-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | Top | 83-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings. While I do believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this game a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Thunder are coming off a 117-91 loss at Golden State on Monday. Note that OKC is not expected to have guard Dion Waiters available for this one yet; and that’s bad news for a bench which, other than Anthony Morrow who had 17 points, combined to score just 20 in the loss to the Warriors. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Thunder have won the last 12 straight in this series, including two already this year (both SU and ATS). But here’s a big opportunity for the Kings to bounce back, this is the first of six straight in front of the home town crowd, note that Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range. It’s my opinion that this spread is just a little large, play on the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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01-07-15 | Florida +3 v. South Carolina | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC ASSASSIN on Florida. South Carolina has been an ATS machine for bettors this year, while Florida has clearly taken a step back from last season’s form. Despite those facts, I think the Gators come to play today and while I obviously believe the outright win is a very real possibility, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. If history is any precedence, then Florida has to be loving its chances here as it’s 13-5 SU with Billy Donovan as coach when starting conference play. The Gators will be especially pumped to return to winning form as well after back to back losses in the closing moments to FSU and UConn respectively. I think the Gamecocks come in a bit complacent here, they’ve won seven straight, beating Oklahoma State and Clemson along the way. Note that Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing the role of underdog and 2-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that South Carolina is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the Washington Wizards. For a number of different situational and strong trend based reasons, I think the Wizards can at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think New Orleans comes in flat/complacent today, it’s coming off a big 111-83 victory over the Rockets on Friday. Conversely, there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier”, this is the final game of four-game trip for Washington and it’s dropped the first three vs. some very stiff competition in Dallas, OKC and San Antonio. And as mentioned off the top, from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Washington is already 6-5 ATS in 11 non-conference games this year and 41-29 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that New Orleans is a poor 3-4 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest and just 4-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-05-15 | Elon v. Towson -3 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Towson. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I expect Towson to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Towson is coming off a 61-52 loss to James Madison in the Colonial Ahtletic Association opener for both teams last Saturday. The Tigers are now 7-7 overall and 0-1 CAA. Elon is coming off a 77-67 win over Drexel in its first game as a member of the CAA. These teams have just one common opponent this year, as each would claim wins over Morgan State, the Tigers would beat the Bears 51-46, while the Phoenix would need to rally from 19 points down for a 74-73 victory. But from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Elon is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 75 points or more, while Towson is a fantastic 6-1 ATS in its last seven after losing five or more consecutive SU contests. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on TOWSON. AAA Sports |
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01-05-15 | Rider v. Fairfield | Top | 62-46 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Fairfield. For a number of different reasons I like Fairfield to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. I think Rider comes in a bit complacent here after winning four in a row. The Broncos are a good team, four players average between 11.1 and 9.1 PPG, but I simply feel that this is a tough spot for it. Most recently Rider is coming off a 69-59 win over Marist on Friday. From a “motivational” stand point, there’s no question in my mind which team will be the “hungrier” as note, Fairfield would begin the year 2-0 in conference play, but comes in having lost four straight, including a frustrating 68-67 loss at home to Siena on Friday (note that the Stags actually led 66-63 in the closing moments before blowing it). This is also a “double revenge” spot for Fairfield, which lost 71-62 in Bridgeport on February 15th, after also falling 73-65 on February 3rd in Rider. And finally note, this is the third consecutive road game for the Broncos, making this is a natuarl letdown spot for the visitors in my opinion. A plethora of favorable situational factors collide to make FAIRFIELD the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-04-15 | Sacramento Kings +2.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 95-114 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door in what should be a highly competitive affair. The Pistons have been on quite a roll since waiving Josh Smith, winning four in a row. Detroit hasn’t won five in a row in more than five years and suffice it to say, I think the “wheels come off the bus” today. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games I keep my eyes open for, in my opinion this definitely sets up as a ledown spot for the suddenly over achieving Pistons; and note, it’s not hard to imagine Detroit getting caught looking ahead to its lengthy road trip starting against the defending Champions on Tuesday. Sacramento has definitely been struggling, but is coming off a 110-107 victory over the Wolves last time out. However, bettors have been getting killed betting on the Kings of late as the team has failed to cover the spread in 11 straight contests (you may not know, but one angle that I always try to exploit is “lopsided” numbers or trends; this play falls directly into that system). This is also a revenge spot for the Kings after they fell 95-90 to Detroit at home as 5.5 point favorites on December 13th. It’s interesting to note that Sacramento is 3-1 ATS this season after playing three or more consecutive road games, while Detroit is a poor 4-12 ATS in front of the home town crowd and just 2-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 157 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Detroit Lions. It’s been an unreal year for Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, who would both ride RB DeMarco Murray into the Playoffs. But now Murray is about to run head first into the league’s best rush defense and I ultimatley feel that this factor will decide the outcome of this game. With Detroit effectively shutting down Murray today, the spot light will be on Romo to perform, this is the type of scenario that he’s failed in throughout his career and I expect that trend to continue today (note that Romo is just 1-3 in the postseason). The Lions would limit their opposition to 69.3 rushing yards per game with 133 tackles for a loss to lead the NFL in both categories this year. The Cowboys defense is hardly a “World Stopper”, certainly the talented Lions offensive unit has a big opportunity to put some points on the board; note that QB Matt Stafford threw for 488 yards (many to Calvin Johnson) in these teams last meeting together, a 31-30 Detroit win on October 27th, 2013. Johnson would finish with 14 receptions for 329 yards. Also note that Dallas’ defense suffered a blow in last week’s win over the Redskins when DT Henry Melton was lost for the remainder of the year with a knee injury. I think this is an offense that DETROIT is tailor made to stop, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Arizona Cardinals. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 4.5 and it’s since gone up to as high as 6.5 as of writing; regardless, I really like this play and think that the incredible depth of the Cardinals will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Obviously I think the outright win is a very real possibility and if so inclined, you may want to consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well. In my opinion, this one is going to come down to the wire and as such I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Carolina; the Panthers battled in the worst division in the league and would gut out a victory over the hapless Atlanta Falcons for the right to represent the anemic NFC South in their final game of the year (I had Carolina in that one). I think Carolina is just happy to be here. Sure the Panthers have won three straight, but now they’re going to run smack dab into a hungry and determined Cardinals team which will be looking to take its frustrations out on someone after coming up just short down the stretch of the regular season. While the Cards are relegated to having to use their third string QB, which I will admit is a huge factor, I will just remind you that a “Football” team is more than just a single man, something that Arizona has proved throughout the year. Does Carolina even have a serious QB advantage here? In my opinion, no, Cam Newton has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely poor in others. He has supposedly been dealing with injuries and is healthier now than ever before, but if there’s one thing that Newton has proven throughout his career, it’s been that he’s extremely inconsistent from game to game. I think the QB “talent gap” is not as big as what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ryan Lindley will have his hands full today with an improving Panthers secondary, but he has lots of talented weapons to lean on. And in my opinion, the Cardinals defense is superior overall. Arizona competed in the ultra competitive NFC West and despite its QB issues, I believe is still the better team today; play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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01-03-15 | Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC ASSASSIN on Georgia Tech. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I think that Georgia Tech will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Granted, this will hardly be a cake-walk, the 14th ranked Irish are averaging a conference-best 86.1 points. Notre Dame is most recently coming off an 87-60 victory of Hartford. But now Notre Dame will finally face some competition as conference play begins; there’s definitely one area that Georgia Tech can take advantage of as well today as the Yellow Jackets had 17 second-chance points from 15 offensive rebounds in a 67-66 win over Charlotte on Tuesday and rank third in the ACC at 14.7 offensive rebounds per game. But as mentioned off the top, this selection is primarily based on strong ATS trends, note that Georgia Tech is already 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year and 3-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Notre Dame is already 0-1 ATS this year after allowing 60 point or less and 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, this spread is a little large, indeed making GEORGIA TECH the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-02-15 | Detroit Pistons v. New York Knicks +2 | Top | 97-81 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the New York Knicks. A couple of cellar dwellers face off in the Big Apple on Friday night and only one will leave MSG with a victory; in my opinion, there are enough situational, motivational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the home side to indeed pull the trigger on the Knicks in this matchup. New York is now on the cusp of another 10-game losing streak, its second of the year. The Knicks are also in the midst of their longest home losing streak in franchise history. Now also throw in the fact that the Pistons beat New York in Detroit at the start of the season, and there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier.” This also sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the suddenly over-achieving Pistons who have won three straight after Tuesday’s 109-86 effort in Orlando. Here’s a quote from Carmelo Anthony that you’ve never heard before: "I've never been 5-29," said Anthony yesterday. "It's getting testing not to get frustrated and it's tough to keep a smile on my face." As mentioned off the top, there are several strong ATS trends working in favor of New York here, the most pertinent being that Detroit is just 1-8 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and only 5-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after playing three or more consective road games. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +10 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 531 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Ohio State. I chose Ohio State to win the Big Ten and while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Buckeyes will come to play today and expect them to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I also picked the Tide to win the SEC as Alabama comes to New Orleans on an eight-game win streak. Alabama endured a grueling schedule and survived some close calls along the way. The Tide allowed just 16.6 PPG this year, which is fourth in the Nation. But Alabama is about to run smack dab into the middle of the Buckeyes high octane offense, a unit which used a 59-0 destruction of Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game to punch its ticket to the semi finals of the inaugural College Football playoff. I don’t care who is under center for Ohio State, this is an offense that is running like a well oiled-machine and I absolutely think that Alabama is in for a big surprise today. The Buckeyes have battled through so much adversity this year that it’s not even funny, I think OHIO STATE keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +10 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 527 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Florida State. I played this line pretty much right when it came out and got 9.5 and it’s since come down a bit from then, but regardless, with more than a month off to prepare for Oregon’s high-octane offense, I think the FSU defense will prove to be a difference maker today and expect the Seminoles to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This game features the countries top two QB’s, the Ducks Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this season, while FSU’s Jameis Winston won it last year. Mariota was clearly the best QB in 2014, but the fact remains that Winston has not lost a single game in two years. Florida State though would finish with a 3-10 record ATS, which I think helped in inflating this line. The Ducks would lose early, but Oregon’s overall difficulty of schedule is the reason for its No. 1 ranking. Florida State was deceptively good this year though, it’s never easy to win at this level, but note that the Noles finished 29th in points per game and 30th in scoring defense. Florida State has won in shootouts and in defensive affairs, it’s ability to adapt to any situation is a big reason why the team is undefeated in two years. Oregon finished one spot ahead of FSU in scoring defense, but I think will be surprised today by the Seminoles versatility on the offensive side of the ball. While I won’t be so bold to predict an outright upset, I do think that FLORIDA STATE has the necessary weapons to hang with the Ducks and look for this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 505 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe that this is too many points to be giving up and expect Georgia Tech to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a matchup of strength vs. strength, as the Yellow Jackets high-octane triple-option offense takes on the hard-nosed defense of the Runnin Rebels. Mississippi State was dominant on the defensive side of the ball, but was not tested by anything like what Georgia Tech brings to the offensive table. The Yellow Jackets will be running today, and the team uses mismatches and clever offensive sets to get consistent production on almost every drive, ultimatley posting a ridiculous 333.6 yards of offense per game average on the ground this year. In all, fourteen players have recorded a carry for the team and twelve of those have at least 100 yards. However, if the defense cheats, then QB Justin Thomas can burn it through the air, the sophomore tallied 17 TD’s with just five INTs in 175 attempts. As good as the Bulldogs defense is, I have a hard time seeing their offense keeping pace. I like Georgia Tech to turn up the pressure early and while Mississippi State may in the end pull out the victory, I definitely expect this one to come down to the wire, indeed making the savvy move on the YELLOW JACKETS. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss v. TCU -3 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 497 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on TCU. I think TCU brings more to the table in this matchup and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. TCU is the No. 2 scoring offense in the country. Mississippi has the FBS No. 1 ranked defense. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength. However, I think the Horned Frogs’ defense has a big opportunity to make some noise today as well and ultimately think that Mississippi will finally stumble after having to play catch-up all day long. TCU is choked after getting passed over in the inaugural College Footbal Playoff and I think it takes its frustrations out on Mississippi, the Horned Frogs would rout Iowa State 55-3 on December 6th, an effort not good enough in the committee’s eyes to secure a position: “We feel like this is a playoff game," said coach Gary Patterson enthusiastically last week. "Ole Miss was as high as third in the nation, they play at a very high level." The Rebels were rolling, but a loss to LSU on October 25th, and a 35-31 setback to Auburn a week later, as well as losing star receiver Laquon Treadwell to injury, all culminated in Mississippi’s national title hopes going up in flames. The Rebels would then also go on to lose 30-0 at Arkansas in their next SEC game, but would in the end finally recover to beat Mississippi State 31-17 in the Egg Bowl in its finale. It’s very important to note that Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace struggled down the stretch without Treadwell, completing just 55 percent of his passes with five TDs and five INTs in the final five games, after throwing 17 TDs and averaging 9.1 YPA during his team’s 7-0 start. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, after taking all of the above situational and motivational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to TCU as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-29-14 | Portland v. BYU -10.5 | Top | 88-97 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEATDOWN on BYU. For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I expect BYU to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then the Cougars have to be loving their chances here, they’re 10-1 in the series, including 6-0 at home. That includes an 89-72 win last February 22nd; suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting a similar large discrepancy here. Portland returns four starters and seven of the top eight scorers from last year's team that finished 15-16 overall, but BYU has played a tougher schedule than the Pilots and entered the weekend with an RPI of No. 37 nationally. Note that three of the Cougars losses have come by a total of 11 points and two were in OT. Note that Portland is a poor 1-2 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and just 7-14 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that BYU is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. To me the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the COUGARS. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Houston Rockets v. San Antonio Spurs -1 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Antonio Spurs. A loss on Sunday would mark the Spurs seventh loss in their last eight games, something San Antonio has not done since 1997 when big man Tim Duncan was still playing at Wake Forest. Suffice it to say, I think this proud, revenge minded champion comes to play today and finds a way to get job done at the end of the night. Houston signed Josh Smith and then went out and beat Memphis 117-111 in overtime on Friday, Smith would score 21. In my mind, this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Rockets after that big victory. Conversely, there’s no question which team will be the “hungrier”, not only will the Spurs be looking to atone for their recent lacklutre efforts, they’ll also be looking to avenge a listless 98-81 setback to the Rockets on November 6th, a game in which San Antonio played without Duncan and Manu Ginobili; both are expected to be in the line-up today (the Spurs have in fact lost six straight in this series). Whether Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard play today or not doesn’t matter in my opinion, note that Houston is a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while San Antonio is 12-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational opportunity, play on the SPURS. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 136 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers. While I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s do or die, the winner of this game will go on to represent the surprisingly poor NFC South. These are a couple of bad teams. Atlanta remained alive in the race by beating the Saints 30-14 last Sunday, its first win in three games. Carolina needs to win or tie to clinch the division and will play with revenge here after falling 19-17 to the Falcons in Week 11: "We're in a great position," Panthers coach Ron Rivera assessed earlier in the week. "We have a chance to do something that's never happened in the NFC South and that's (win) back-to-back division titles." Carolina though is moving in the right direction to end the year, after giving up an average of 29 points during a six-game skid, the Panthers have won all three of their games this month, outscoring the opposition 77-40 in the process (it’s interesting to note that Carolina is 14-3 in the month of December since Rivera took over in 2011). Panthers QB Cam Newton has overcome season long injury issues to play a lot better of late, he threw for 201 yards with a TD, while also adding 12 carries for 63 yards and another score in last Sunday’s 17-13 win over the Browns. Also note that Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart has been a wrecking ball over the last month, he leads the league with 437 rushing yards in that span. A lone bright spot for Atlanta’s offense has been receiver Julio Jones, at least in the consistency department, but Jones can’t win the game by himself, I believe Carolina continues to make progressions on the defensive side of the ball today. I think this game should be a pick-em and as far as I’m concerned that means that the PANTHERS are indeed the sharp move in this pivotal contest. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers. With likely many of their jobs on the line, the 49ers still have something to play for today. San Francisco will also be relishing the chance to play spoiler today and to take its frustrations out on division rival and playoff bound Arizona. The Cardinals of course come in with their third string QB and now have more questions than answers on both sides of the ball. The conditions are certainly right for a lop-sided blowout in my opinion. Arizona has zero TD’s in its last two games and will have to put Ryan Lindley back under center; Lindley fell to 1-4 in his career as a starter after completing 18 of 44 passes for 216 yards with one INT in last Sunday’s 35-6 loss at home to Seattle. This is likely Jim Harbaugh’s swan song for San Francisco, added incentive for the home side to come out with a big effort. This is also a revenge game for the 49ers after falling 23-14 in Arizona on September 21st. San Francisco’s four-game slide is the club’s longest under Harbaugh and suffice it to say, I think the motivational and situational edges working in its favor will ensure that that streak of futility ends today. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | St. Louis Rams +14 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 6-20 | Push | 0 | 136 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the St. Louis Rams. As good as Seattle has played of late and despite having to also win this contest to clinch the division, I believe this does in fact set up as a bit of a letdown/lookahead spot for the home side and believe that the Rams will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Interestingly, this will be the fourth time in five seasons that Seattle hosts St. Louis in Week 17. The Rams would beat the ‘Hawks 28-26 on October 19th: "It's a great place to play, it's a hard place to play and they have a great home-field advantage as everybody knows," St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher said of his team’s matchup this weekend. "We're going to have to go up there and play good football and not turn it over. They have a lot to play for so it's going to be an exciting game." A big reason the Rams won that first game was their ability to slow down RB Marshawn Lynch, holding the wrecking ball to just 53 yards on 18 carries. St. Louis’ defensive unit will also be extra motivated after giving up 514 yards in last week’s 37-27 loss to the Giants: "I mean, 500 yards of offense, you can't do that," linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar said. "I don't care who you're playing, you can't do that. It's disappointing for us to play like this." As focused as Seattle claims to be in this game, it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to picture the team in some small way “looking ahead” to the playoffs as it tries to defend its title; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that ST. LOUIS has enough situational and motivational factors working on its side to indeed pull the trigger on this 10* selection. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 136 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Green Bay Packers. It all comes down to this. The winner of this game will clinch the NFC North with even more positive implications on the line as well. I simply can’t understate how important I think that the “home field advantage” will be today, and believe this factor will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. The Packers plus-15 turnover differential is the best in the league and their 11 turnovers committed could be the team’s best mark since 1941. And if history is any precedence, then Green Bay has to be loving its chances here, the Pack have won 22 consecutive regular-season home games vs. the Lions. Detroit will be playing in the postseason regardless of the outcome and with that satisfying fact at the back of its collective thoughts, I think the visitors come out a bit flat here. Note that this is also a revenge game for Green Bay after it fell 19-7 in Detroit on September 21st. And as good as the Lions defense has been to this point of the season, I think the unit runs into an absolute buzzsaw today as Green Bay is 7-0 at home so far, averaging a whopping 41.1 points and 425.6 yards per game in the process. QB Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable in front of the home town crowd, but now the dynamic pivot also has a run game to lean on, the unit has rushed for 110 yards or more in nine of the Packers last ten games, including in seven straight. And those facts don’t bode well for a Detroit offense which ranks 20th overall in total offense on the road, QB Matt Stafford has posted a poor 72.8 rating away from friendly confines. Also note that Stafford will be without the services of center Dominic Raiola because of a one game suspension, meaning that rookie Travis Swanson will hand off to him, the first time in his career that he’ll be taking snaps from someone else in a regular-season contest. After taking all of the above situational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the PACKERS as the savvy move in this particular matchup. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants -2.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Giants. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Philadelphia is out of the playoff picture after last week’s setback, making this a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Now also throw in the fact that the Giants play with revenge here and enter on a three-game win skein, there’s no question in my opinion that we’re getting fantastic line value today, the motivational and situational factors working in favor of the home side are as about as strong as you could possibly hope to ask for. Philadelphia has lost three straight and has nothing left to play for here. Many of the 6-9 Giants though are playing for their jobs next year, New York is looking for one last big effort, a top draft position is out of the question. Just listen to Eagles’ TE Zach Hertz: "It's very frustrating to us to control our destiny when we are 9-3 and to have this happen," Ertz lamented earlier in the week. "We're very disappointed. Ultimately, it falls on the players. We didn't execute the game, either of the three games. It's very disheartening." That sounds like a man who has given up on the season. QB Mark Sanchez looked decent at times this season, but a closer look reveals some more glaring weaknesses, the oft-maligned pivot has 14 turnovers in eight games. New York could care less about the Eagles’ issues though, this is a team clearly driven right now to finish the season strong, the late surge has likely saved coach Tom Coughlin’s job. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. were on the same page in last week’s 37-27 win at St. Louis, the young receiver would finish with 148 yards and two scores on eight catches. New York would lose 27-0 in the first game vs. Philadelphia: "Sure, we have something to prove," right tackle Justin Pugh said. "We didn't score at all the first time." Manning was particularly effective last week, he was 25 of 35 for 391 yards and three TD’s with no INT’s and his 148.8 rating was the highest of his career (also note that Manning needs just one more win for 100 victories for his career). In my opinion, Sanchez will have to have the game of his career for Philadelphia to score the upset and I simply don’t see that happening, play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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12-27-14 | Kennesaw State v. Illinois -26 | Top | 45-93 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Illinois. Illinois is 9-3, but has struggled ATS for bettors so far this year. I think that changes tonight though as I expect the Illni to come in focused and to bury Kennesaw State down the stretch. With one last warm-up before Big Ten conference play starts on Tuesday, I think the home side makes the most of this opportunity. Illinois has won 36 straight non-conference games at the State Farm Center. The Illini also come in with plenty of momentum after Rayvonte Rice nailed a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give his team the 62-59 win over Missouri in the annual Braggin’ Rights contest. The Owls are clearly out of their league today, Illinois hasn’t lost to an opponent outside the Big Ten at home since the 2010 NIT quarterfinals. Kennesaw State comes in with zero confidence, it’s lost five of its last six and has just one road win so far, most recently falling short vs. Elon on Monday, losing 67-65. The Owls have been outscored by an average of 27.5 points per game this year. And that plays directly into the Illini’s hands, they rank 29th in the nation in points with 77.9 per game (and note, Kennesaw State has in fact been outscored by an average margin of 41.6 points in the last three meetings with Big Ten foes). Note that the Owls are already 0-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, while Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last six vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 point or less per contest. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards; play on ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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12-26-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +3 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons. While I obviously believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. There’s no question which team will be the “hungrier” here. Detroit returns from the X-Mas break without Josh Smith in the lineup, the high-priced forward was let go: "He's taking the most shots," Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy argued yesterday. "He's got the ball in his hands a lot. We would have had to have reduced his role offensively. I don't think he would have been happy with that at this point in his career. ... I thought it was best for him, I thought it was best for us. If we were 12-16 or 10-18, we probably wouldn't be here. We're 5-23. That calls, in every respect, for some adjustment. Some things had to be different." There’s no sugar-coating Detroit’s play to date, it’s struggled on both ends of the court, but from a situational stand point I think this is a golden opportunity to take advantage of, whenever an organization makes a big move like the one that the Pistons just made, invariably the team will respond with a resounding effort across the board and that’s exactly what I expect here. And to say this is a revenge spot would be a bit of an understatement I think as Indiana has won eight of the last nine in the series. I also think that the Pacers come in a bit complacent here after winning two straight and who could be without the services of big man Roy Hibbert who is listed as day to day. Note that Indiana is just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Detroit is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 after scoring 105 points or more. Grab as many points as you can with DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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12-23-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves +14 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 104-125 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Timberwolves. For me, this is strictly a situationally based selection; I believe this to be a classic “letdown/lookahead” spot for the home side and like the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Of course, this is going to be a “weird” game for the Cavs’ Kevin Love, he’ll be playing his first game against his former team for the first time. And not to be outdone, Cleveland then plays on Christmas day in Miami, LeBron James in South Beach for the first time since his trade. This is a perfect situation that both the Wolves (and us!) can take advantage of. And for me, it’s as simple as that. I believe the Cavs’ big weapons come in a bit distracted, leaving the back door open just enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on BYU. As you can guess by the point-spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I ultimately think that the Cougars proficiency on the offensive end will prove to be too much for the Tigers and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Both teams come in with plenty of momentum, Memphis has won six straight games and has to be enjoying the lime light right now, it’s the team’s first bowl game since 1998. BYU comes in having won four straight games and six of its last nine bowl appearances and will be eager to atone for last year’s 31-16 loss to Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength, as BYU sports a high-scoring offense vs. Memphis’ stingy defensive unit. The Cougars average 36 points and 463 yards per game, while the Tigers are giving up just 17.1 points and 343 yards per game: “We don’t overlook a team," said BYU receiver Jordan Leslie earlier in the week. "When you look at their defense, it is a top-ranked defense. I mean, that’s a challenge for us. Our defense looking at their offense is just as much of a challenge. You can’t look at the name-brand of a team, because any team any year can be successful. They are 9-3 and their losses are against ranked teams and Houston. That’s a tough schedule. To have an opportunity to go 10-3 - that’s a great team." I think we’re getting great value here though, I am expecting BYU to set the tone early and it will be hard for Memphis to play catchup. In this case, great offense trumps great defense in my opinion, grab as many points as you can with BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-22-14 | Illinois-Chicago +11.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 46-63 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG MONDAY BLOWOUT on Illinois Chicago. UIC is just 3-9, while Northwestern is 7-4. For a number of different reasons though (mainly based on strong trends), I think the Flames will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a “revenge” game as well for UIC as NU would roll to a 93-58 beatdown last year. One player to keep your eyes on today is UIC’s Jay Harris, who was named the Horizon League player of the week after scoring a career-high 32 points vs. UCF on December 11th. Northwestern is coming off a hard-fought 67-61 win over Western Michigan with Tre Demps leading the way with 17 points. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a natuarl letdown/lookahead spot for Northwestern. And note, from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Illinois Chicago is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Northwestern is just 2-3 ATS at home this year and only 14-23 ATS in the same position over the last two. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to UIC as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-21-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings -7 | Top | 101-108 | Push | 0 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings. After losing to the Lakers earlier in the month and looking to avoid a season-high sixth straight loss overall, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Sacramento was SO close to stopping the slide last time out as well, big man DeMarcus Cousins returned to go 8 of 12 for 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, but it wasn’t enough as the Kings would fall 108-107 to the Bucks for their tenth loss in their last 12 games. Sacramento went 2-8 with Cousins sidelined, but I think the team will come in focused here. Also note, the way in which the Kings lost to the Lakers this year will not be sitting well with them, they allowed Kobe Bryant to score nine of his 32 points over the final 3:15, LA would rally from a seven point deficit to win 98-95 (Cousins did not play in that one). Note though that there is some room to read between the lines in that performance, Black Mamba shot only 11 of 27 that night and he’s been even worse since, he was just 12 of 15 on Friday and was held to just nine points in a disheartening 104-103 home to loss to Oklahoma City. The Kings will also be hungry to avoid a five game slide in front of the home town crowd. It’s a perfect set of motivational and situational factors that we can take advantage of. Also note that LA is already a poor 5-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points or more per contest and 1-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents, while Sacramento is already 2-1 ATS vs. division opponents this year, 2-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 6-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in its previous contest. After considering all of the above factors, I believe this number is just a little low; play on SACRAMENTO. AAA Sports |
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12-21-14 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 157 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the home side comes to play today as I’m expecting the Jets to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats would wrap up the AFC East last week and while they still need two wins to ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, I do believe this contest sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors. New York plays with revenge as well after falling 27-25 in New England back on October 16th. In fact, four of New York’s last five in the series have been decided by three points or fewer and the Jets won last season’s meeting in the Big Apple 30-27 in overtime. When you take a closer look at the numbers, it’s almost impossible to believe that New York hasn’t actually taken one of these contests as the Jets have held the Patriots to an average of just 283.3 yards and 22.3 points per game over the last three. The Jets have the sixth-ranked defense and are especially strong against the run, limiting the opposition to just 87.5 yards for the fourth-lowest average in the NFL. New York’s biggest issue is with offensive consistency, but through all of the tumult this season, the Jets’ run game has remained a bright spot, the unit has gained 166.6 YPG since the setback to the Patriots. And note that the Jets come in with some momentum and confidence as well after betting Tennessee 16-11 last Sunday, QB Geno Smith has two TD’s and two INT’s over his last three games. Note that New England is already just 1-2 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 10 points or more. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the JETS as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-19-14 | Eastern Washington v. California -7.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on California. For a number of different reasons I think that the Golden Bears come to play today and expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. California certainly comes in with momentum, it’s won six straight and is 9-1 overall. It’s the team’s best start since 2001. Also note, this is the opener of five straight at home for the Bears who are coming off a 67-57 victory over Princeton on Saturday. And if history is any precedence, then California has to be loving its chances tonight, the Bears have won nine straight at Haas Pavilion, while also triumphing in 16 straight non-conference home games dating back to 2012. Simply put, I can’t see the Eagles keeping pace, Cal has been getting the job done with suffocating defensive play, through 10 games the Golden Bears are limiting their opposition to just 58.6 per contest. One player to keep your eyes on today is Cal’s junior point guard Tyrone Wallace who is one of the countries best at his position, he’s already a two-time Pac-12 Player of the Week this year and ranks second in the Pac-12 at 19.4 ppg (he ranks 20th nationally in total points). As mentioned off the top, California comes in with a ton of momentum and so to would have Eastern Washington if it didn’t just come off a 76-52 loss at Sam Houston State on Tuesday night, it’s first setback of the year after opening the season with eight-straight wins; in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors after their big season opening win streak was snapped. Note that the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less, while California is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9.5 points range. A fantastic situational play supported by extremely strong ATS trends, there’s no question in my mind that CALIFORNIA is the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-17-14 | Detroit v. Central Florida +4.5 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Florida. UCF has been a disaster for bettors to start the year, but I think the Knights keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as they finally get off the ATS schneid and at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points affored to them in this spot. This is the start of a big road trip for Detroit and I think it comes in a bit flat footed in the opener; note that this game will be the first of an eight day road trip which covers more than 7,000 miles for the Titans. With no prior history against each other, I think it’s important to look at each team’s “situation” closely. Detroit is coming off a 77-68 loss to No. 11 Wichita State on Saturday and actually owned a 54-44 lead with 11:54 remaining; the Titans though would choke and the Shockers would use a closing 33-14 run to secure the victory. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. UCF will clearly come in as the “hungrier” team, it’s coming off a third-straight setback, a very lacklustre 54-41 loss to visiting Florida Atlantic on Saturday night. The Knights actually had a 26-25 half time lead, but would go on to have an atrocious second half. But as I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and I think Central Florida comes in focused on the task at hand. Note that Detroit is 13-20 ATS in its last 33 when playing the role of favorite, while UCF is 4-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CENTRAL FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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12-15-14 | Troy State v. Austin Peay -2.5 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Austin Peay. For a number of different strong trend based reasons, I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as it successfully pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I expect the Trojans to come in a bit complacent here as well, they’re in the midst of a three-game win streak (note, there is some room to read between the lines in those wins though, against Alcorn State, Central Arkansas and Fort Valley State repectively). And conversely, I think Austin Peay comes in highly focused, it’s coming off three straight losses as the Governors would drop their first home game since mid-November in losing to Lipscomb 68-59 on Saturday. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part I have chosen this play because of some strong/lop-sided trends; note that Troy is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog and only 1-2 ATS in non-conference games. And note that Austin Peay is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after three or more consecutive SU losses and 13-8 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a bit larger, indeed making AUSTIN PEAY the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 129 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Kansas City Chiefs. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done here and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Despite losing three in a row, the Chiefs are still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. That said, the team can’t lose anymore and certainly will need to start building momentum if it has any chance of making a legitimate postseason run. Who better to face than the lowly Raiders then? This is also a revenge game after Oakland upset Kansas City for its first victory of the season a few weeks back. KC is one of five 7-6 teams still in the mix for the conference’s two wild-card spots which are currently occupied by the Steelers at 8-5 and the Chargers at 8-5 as well. Note that the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh next and then close the season vs. San Diego, which obviously puts added emphasis onto today’s contest. Oakland would promptly lose 52-0 at St. Louis after the victory over the Chiefs, but then rebounded for a 24-13 victory over the 49ers last week, but note that the Raiders are 2-20 away from home over the last three seasons and 0-6 so far this year. For me, this is simply a great situational play. After their win over KC, the Raiders immediately had a letdown in the loss to the Rams, I definitely am expecting the same thing here. KC is clearly motivated on a number of different levels, all signs do indeed point to the CHIEFS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -125 | 129 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins. For a number of different reasons I think the Fish can keep this one close enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch which what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 9, it’s since come down a bit from that, but I still really love this selection regardless. Both teams come into this game highly motivated, Miami needs an outright win to keep its playoff hopes alive, while a victory for the home side will wrap up the division title. New England would survive a 23-14 effort in San Diego last week, bouncing back from a 26-21 loss at Green Bay the week before. But with cream puffs at the Jets next week and then at home to the Bills to end the year, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to those games. And that’s just the situational factor that Miami (and us!) is looking to take advantage of here. This is the second game between the two divisional rivals, Miami actually won 33-20 back on September 7th, Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 29 of 56 for 249 yards, while also losing two fumbles. Miami comes in motivated after last Sunday’s 28-13 setback to Baltimore: "I have a lot of faith and confidence in these guys," Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said earlier in the week. "We've got a huge challenge this week going up to New England. I told them in the locker room, we're going to find out a lot this week." Miami’s defense has been suspect the last few weeks but gets a big boost today with the expected return of Cortland Finnegan. And from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong a play as you could possibly ask for, note that the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while the Patriots are just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this season and only 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-14-14 | George Washington v. Penn State -1 | Top | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Penn State. Penn State is 9-1 this year, but has had difficulty covering the spread so far this season. While it won’t be easy, I do finally expect the Nittany Lions to get off the schneid for bettors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a big test for Penn State, George Washington is the closest thing to an NCAA Tournament team that it’s faced so far. The Colonials enter off a win over DePaul and rank 32nd nationally in adjusted defensive effeciency. We can expect Lions’ coach Pat Chambers to slow this game down, as GW’s two losses have come in “ultra-slow” contests; note that both games the Colonials lost came in contests that had 60 or fewer possessions. Penn State will also look to establish in the paint, the big men performed very well in Wednesday’s win over Duqane. Note that the Nittany Lions are 28th in the country in 2pt% defense. And note, as good as George Washington has played this year that it’s just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season, while Penn State is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 point or less per contest. The bottom line is, this is the first opportunity of the year for Penn State to get a quality win and I have every confidence in Chambers’ ability to have his team focused on the task at hand; play on PENN STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-12-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Wizards. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done, and while I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams come into this contest red hot, I simply feel that LA is going to finally have a letdown here after winning nine straight though. The Wizards will be looking to post their best home start in franchise history and move to 11-2 in the nation’s capital. Washington is coming off a couple of close contests, a 133-132 double OT victory over Boston before a 91-89 effort in Orlando on Wednesday. Note that the Wizards would commit a season-low ten turnovers and had 26 assists in that one; there’s no question that Washington is playing at an extremely high level right now: "When we play that way, it makes it hard for the other team," Wizards coach Randy Wittman assessed afterwards. "If we're getting 10 or 12 assists, we're going to get beat every time. We move bodies, we move the ball and we don't worry about who's getting shots. Normally we have guys on the floor who can score." One big reason why the Clippers have been playing so well has been because of point guard Chris Paul, but his play will be negated here by the Wizards’ John Wall. This is area is a wash. And without their “energizer bunny” leading the charge, I think the rest of LA will suffer tonight. And as good as the Clippers are offensively, note that the Wizards rank eighth in the league in allowing just 92.2 per contest. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement I think, including dropping both contests last year, the Wizards have in fact lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that LA is 3-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest, while Washington is 3-1 following a divisional contest this year, 2-1 ATS in non-conference games and 3-2 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. I think the home side comes to play today and when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WIZARDS as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -3.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -108 | 65 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF MONTH on the St. Louis Rams. For a number of different reasons, I like the surging home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Arizona is still clinging atop the NFC standings, but has definitely shown some cracks in the armor of late, one of which is its play on the road, losing its last two straight away from friendly confines. The Cardinals have been getting the job done with tough defensive play, as the offense has sputtered in recent weeks and simply put, I believe this fact will be the difference in the outcome of tonight’s contest. St. Louis will be looking to become the first team in 38 years to shut out three straight opponents. Since beating the Rams 31-14 on November 9th, Arizona has just four offensive TD’s in four games; QB Drew Stanton has thrown five INT’s in that span. Also note that the Cards are down top rusher Andre Ellingon, who was placed on season-ending injured reserved earlier this week. It’s hard not to imagine the Cardinals looking ahead to their game vs. Seattle next week as well, as remember, Arizona fell 19-3 in Seattle on November 23rd. This is as strong a “situational” play as you could possibly ask for. St. Louis is streaking, it’s outscored Oakland and Washington 76-0 over the last two weeks. St. Louis has dominated two pathetic teams in a row, but note that it’s won three straight in front of the home town crowd, beating Seattle 28-26 and holding Denver to its lowest point total of the season in a 22-7 win in the process. QB Shaun Hill has been pivotal, he’s completed 62 percent of his passes with six TD’s and two INT’s while starting the last four games. Note that Arizona is already 0-2 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while St. Louis is 2-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to ST. LOUIS as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-11-14 | Elon v. Missouri -12 | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Missouri. Missouri comes in at 4-4, the Tigers would keep their last game vs. the Sooners competitive in the first half, but would wind up losing by 19. Missouri will look to clean up its play vs. 5-3 Elon, which has averaged 114 points over its last two games. Of course, those lop-sided victories came against Virginia University-Lynchburg and Central Pennsylvania; note that guard Tanner Samson is the only player scoring in double figures. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Elon is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 80 points or more, while Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I believe this spread should be a little higher, play on MISSOURI. AAA Sports |
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12-10-14 | Edmonton Oilers v. Anaheim Ducks -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks. No need to overanalyze this play, Anaheim will look to bludgeon the lowly Oilers who are coming off a 5-2 loss at San Jose just last night. Anaheim hasn’t played since Sunday when it beat Winnipeg 4-3 in OT. One player to keep your eyes on tonight is the Ducks Ryan Getzlaf, who has 10 points in five games after collecting three assists vs. the Jets (note that Getzlaf has domianted the Oilers throughout his career as well with 33 points in 30 career outings vs. them). This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, putting added emphasis for Anaheim to lay the hammer down tonight. Note that Edmonton is a pathetic 1-9 (-8.5 units) this year vs. division opponents, while Anaheim is 8-2 (+5.4 units) this season after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest. I’m laying the 1.5 goals on the DUCKS. AAA Sports |
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12-08-14 | Phoenix Suns +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix will look to get back to its winning ways and to also avenge an earlier loss to LA, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Clippers have won nine of their last ten and I think will finally come in a bit complacent, just the opportunity the Suns (and us!) can take advantage of. The Pelicans were the Clippers latest victim, LA would cruise for a 120-100 victory on Saturday. Phoenix will also be looking to atone for a somewhat listless effort vs. the Rockets on Saturday, a 100-95 setback after shooting a combined 53.0 percent in back-to-back victories. From a trend based stand point, this play becomes even stronger, note that Phoenix is 6-3 ATS this season vs. teams that average 99 plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. Conversely, note that LA is just 4-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year and only 3-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, this situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed all point to PHOENIX as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +13 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 188 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Falcons. For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I think that the visitors can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. One of the biggest reasons is “motivation.” Atlanta will be in firm control of the NFC South with an outright victory today and because of that, I am expecting the Falcons to give it their absolute best shot across the board. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, but when also taking into account that the Falcons do in fact come in with considerable momentum in having won three of their last four, this selection becomes stronger. The visitors are also expected to welcome back star WR Roddy White, who sat out last week with a minor ankle injury. And finally, I think that when you take into account that the Falcons are 3-1 ATS in their last four Monday Night contests and that the Packers are just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year and 5-10 ATS in the same position over the last two, that there is no doubt that ATLANTA is the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers +3.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 165 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers. Philip Rivers is 0-5 vs. Tom Brady and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question tonight, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side takes this one down to the wire. The Patriots had their seven-game win streak snapped in last week’s 26-21 loss at Green Bay and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot: “We've never played this Patriot team," Rivers said earlier in the week. "We're 0-0 against this group. There's a lot of guys in that locker room that have never played the Patriots in their life. You can't really say this team is 1-5 against them." Rivers is on fire this year and I think will be the difference. Surely he’s going to be motivated to finally get off the schneid vs. Brady, but he comes into this contest with an AFC-best 69.1 completion percentage and enters after his sixth three-TD performance of the season in last week’s thrilling 34-33 win at Baltimore (I had the Bolts in that one!). Obviously it won’t be easy vs. a determined Brady, who is also enjoying a resurgent season, but note that New England is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 away from friendly confines. And note that San Diego has excelled in this spot for bettors, it’s 4-2 ATS this year as the underdog and 3-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the CHARGERS as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +2.5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -100 | 157 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL ATS DESTRUCTION on the Washington Redskins. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I believe the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. St. Louis is coming off a 52-0 win over Oakland last Sunday and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot. Conversely, the Redskins have not given up on the season and will be hungry for a victory here. It’s a perfect “situation” for us to exploit. Even during a 4-3 stretch, the Rams have remained pretty medicore offensively, their 348 yards vs. the Raiders was a season high. St. Louis has been leaning heavily on the run game, but Washington actually ranks ninth against it, limiting its opposition to 102.8 YPG, while the defense ranks 11th overall. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into victories for the Redskins. Yet! Certainly the home side’s defensive unit will be extra motivated here after allowing Andrew luck to throw for a season-high 487 yards in Sunday’s 49-27 loss in Indianpolis: “They've got to go out and make some plays," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "We need leaders to stand up defensively and take them by the throat, make sure they are playing fast." A bright spot for Washington last week though was the play of QB Colt McCoy who was 31 of 47 for 392 yards and three TD’s; McCoy has thrown just one INT in three games and his 1.1 INT percentage is among the best in the league. To say McCoy is motivated would be an understatement I think: "The most important thing is to find a way to get a win," McCoy told reporters on Thursday. "We're going back home this week, so I'll put my best foot forward and keep going." Despite last week’s offensive outburst, the Rams for the most part have been a work in progress on that side of the ball, QB Shaun Hill has started the last three games, while he was 13 of 22 for 183 yards and two TD’s last week, he had gone 18 of 35 for 198 yards, a TD and two INT’s for a 54.2 rating the previous game in a loss at San Diego. Note that St. Louis is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine when playing the role of favorite, while Washignton is 5-4 ATS in its last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to WASHINGTON as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -20.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Boise State. For a number of different reasons I like the Broncos to put their foot on the gas and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing SU/ATS victory. A win today and Boise State will punch its ticket to a New Year’s Day bowl, definitely added incentive which we can take advantage of. The Broncos certainly come in with momentum, they’ve won seven straight, including a 37-27 home victory over Fresno State back on October 17th. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked here either in my opinion. Note that Boise State has averaged 53.2 points in five games since defeating the Bulldgos and is coming off an epic 50-19 beatdown of Utah State last week, RB Jay Ajayi ran for 229 yards and five TD’s. Fresno State would start the season 0-3 and got back to .500 before again losing three in a row, but would then win three straight to clinch the conference’s West Division with last week’s 28-21 win over Hawaii, finishing 6-6 overall. While the Bulldogs have looked much better of late, they certainly aren’t on the same level as the Broncos and I think the visitors will have a lot of trouble containing Ajayi, who ranks third in the country in yards from scrimmage per game at 179.6 (note that Freno State ranks 10th in the 12-team conference in giving up 468.9 yards from scrimmage). In every way this is a mismatch, in my opinion this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on BOISE STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Florida State. For a number of different reasons I think that FSU will put it all together today and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It hasn’t been an easy year for the Seminoles and they’ve dropped a couple places in the College Football Playoff rankings after some lackluster efforts, but I think that FSU can knock off the No. 12 Yellow Jackets today and punch its ticket to the playoffs as it tries to defend its national championship. It’s not easy to win every single game, but guess what? Florida State just completed its first back-to-back undefeated regular seasons in school history after last week’s 24-19 victory over Florida last Saturday. Beating the Yellow Jackets won’t be easy, GT has won five in a row including a 30-24 victory over Georgia in its regular season finale. The Yellow Jackets will try to confuse the Seminoles with their triple-option offense, but FSU has done pretty well against run-heavy teams in Florida, Boston College and Miami already. The only question for me is whether or not QB Jameis Winston will be ready to go today or not, and after carefully analyzing the situation, I firmly believe he will. Despite a couple of shaky efforts, note that Florida State is 3-2 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while Georgia Tech is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -9 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons. Philadelphia has been losing, but it’s been covering the spread, including last night’s game vs. the Thunder. The Pistons have been losing (10 straight), both SU and ATS, but I definitely feel that the conditions are finally right for Detroit to get off the schneid and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Philadelphia is 0-9 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year. This is the opportunity that the Pistons have been waiting for as they look to avoid losing 11 straight for the first time since 2010. Detroit had a shot in its last game but came up short in a 109-102 setback in OT at Boston, Andre Drummond had 27 points and 14 boards. And if history is any precedence, then the Pistons have to be loving their chances as Philadelphia has lost 13 of its last 18 in Detroit. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that the 76ers are just 1-2 ATS this year as road dogs in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while the Pistons are 2-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to DETROIT as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | St. Louis +17.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 52-81 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Saint Louis. While I won’t call for an outright upset here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and like Saint Louis to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. No. 10 Wichita State had its 35-game regular season winning streak snapped by Utah last Wednesday, losing 69-68 in OT and I firmly believe that this contest today sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for it. The Billikens actually almost shocked the Shockers last year, but a 19-7 run over the final 3:17 pushed Wichita State to the 70-65 win. St. Louis is tough, it posted an 11-1 mark away from friendly confines last year and is coming off an 80-58 beatdown of Division II Rockhurst last Tuesday. This is a great situational play, but when looking at it from a trend based stand point, it becomes even stronger, note that Saint Louis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 80 points or more, while Wichita State is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight vs. poor offensive teams which score 64 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with SAINT LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Missouri v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Alabama. I chose Alabama to win the SEC this year. For a number of different reasons, I think the Tide will roll today, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. With a victory Alabama will punch its ticket to the inaugural NCAAF Playoff, added incentive for the Tide after last year’s disappointing end: “I think we have an outstanding league and we have a lot of good teams and the fact that we play each other and end up beating each other probably hurts a little bit," Alabama coach Nick Saban said earlier in the week. "I think some of the teams in our division are really, really good teams and I'm sure there are some other really good teams out there that I have not seen. Without looking at everyone, I would think that somebody in our league qualifies to be one of the better four teams in the country based on the quality of the league and the good teams that we all have to play." Alabama comes in with momentum as well after beating No. 15 Auburn 55-44 last Saturday. Missouri would secure its spot in the title game with a hard-fought 21-14 victory over Arkansas last Friday. Alabama is known for its tough defensive play, but after last weeks’ shootout, there’s no question that this is a Tide team which can move the ball quickly; expect Alabama to run the no-huddle: "I think it's scary for them," Tide safety Nick Perry said. "Usually `Bama beats you with defense and running the ball. Now, we can play a whole different type of game. We can put up points or we can shut them down with defense. I think that's scary for other teams." QB Blake Sims has 2,988 passing yards and not surprisingly, the Tide rank 21st nationally in passing offense with an average of 282.6 per game. Missouri didn’t look overly impressive in its victory last weekend as it fell behind 14-3 in the second quarter and then managed to claw back with 18 unanswered points. Also note that the Tigers were destroyed 59-42 in last year’s SEC championship game vs. Auburn, a team which the Tide just handled. To walk the heavenly streets of gold, you have to know the password: Roll Tide Roll! With a chance to cement its unquestionable dominance over the SEC once again, I like ALABAMA to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |