08-30-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders |
Top |
30-23 |
Loss |
-120 |
106 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Oakland Raiders.
The Cards are 0-2 in the preseason, while the Raiders are 1-1. Arizona's offensive line struggled to move the ball against Kansas City last week and it failed miserably in protecting the QB vs. the Chargers. The Cardinals are also decimated in the linebacking unit and we feel they'll once again have their hands full with Derek Carr and the healthier home side. Both teams starters are expected to play the entire first half. Oakland's lone loss this year came last week in a hard-fought 20-12 setback to the surging Vikings, who including the HOF Game, are now 4-0 in the preseason after dispatching the Cowboys in Dallas yesterday. Carr and Amari Cooper have already hooked up on a couple of dazzling plays, while Michael Crabtree will also be leaned upon heavily this year. We can also expect to see another big dose of RB Latavius Murray, who had 20 yards on four carries including a 2-yard TD run in the setback to the Vikes. The bottom line is, we think the Raiders offense will be too much for the banged up Arizona defense. Simple as that. Play on OAKLAND.
AAA Sports
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08-30-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
Top |
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays.
A massive pitching mismatch combined with a red hot home side lineup adds up to a lop-sided destruction today, it's time to pull the trigger on a run-line selection. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed "gas can" Alfredo Simon (11-8, 4.89 ERA) who was shelled for eight runs off nine hits over 4 1/3's innings in an 8-7 loss to the Angels on Thursday. Simon has been horrible on the road this year as well, posting a ballooned 5.77 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Poor outings have been few and far between for the veteran southpaw though and he the Jays have to be feeling pretty confident in this position as Buehrle is a near-perfect 7-1 with a respectable 3.11 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. With a chance to distance themselves further from the Yanks, we like Buehrle to bounce back from his worst effort of the season and for the JAYS to continue the mashing.
AAA Sports
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08-28-15 |
Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 |
Top |
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
59 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* FRIDAY NIGHT SCORPION on the Kansas City Chiefs.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.
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08-24-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 |
Top |
11-25 |
Win
|
100 |
172 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* M.N.F. GAME OF THE MONTH on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Sometimes we feel that it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at trends, motivational and situational factors as well as individual player matchups and weather reports etc. And in other contests we believe a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a game and that's the case here. Which of these team's "wants" this one more? It's a fair question. In our opinion, this is a fantastic situational play as the Bengals come to town off a satisfying 23-10 win at home over the Giants in Week 1, making this Week 2 matchup a contest which wouldn't be too hard to envision the visitors "looking past" with a game at home vs. Chicago in the all important "dress rehearsal" in Week 3 next week. Conversely, Tampa Bay will be eager to perform in its first game in front of the home town crowd, a spirited effort in Week 1 resulted in a 26-16 loss to Minnesota in Week 1, but it was just a late TD away from covering with the 3.5 points it was afforded in that one. And for us, it's as simple as that for this GAME OF THE MONTH pick, the situation is overwhelmingly working in favor of the home side in our opinion, play on the BUCCANEERS.
AAA Sports
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08-21-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Kansas City Chiefs |
Top |
13-14 |
Win
|
100 |
96 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SCORPION on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Seattle is coming off a loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 1 of the preseason, while the Chiefs steamrolled the Arizona Cardinals. With a Week 3 full "dress rehearsal" at San Diego next week, we're expecting Seattle to simply go through the motions and work on a few things today. Last week Seahawk fans saw their team manage just 181 total yards of offense and remember, Seattle's 24-20 loss at Arrowhead in 2014 would drop the team to 6-4 at the time. The Chiefs clearly have something to build off after their impressive 34-19 victory in Week 1 in Arizona though and with coach Andy Reid on the hot seat this season, we look for the bench boss to continue to dial up the intensity throughout the preseason. All signs do indeed point to the CHIEFS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
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08-14-15 |
NY Giants +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
Top |
10-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
78 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Giants.
Back-ups and wannabe's will be battling it out in this one on Friday night and while we wouldn't be surprised to see an outright victory, we feel that the savvy move is to grab as many points as you can with the visitors. Both Marvin Lewis and Tom Coughlin will once again be on the hot seat this season, another mediocre campaign for either will likely be the final nail in the coffin. New York comes to town with a bunch of injuries, but it doesn't matter obviously, the starters were not going to see much or any time in this one. The Giants have a ton of depth at the WR position this season and we can expect the visitors to test these youngsters from start to finish today. The Bengals did not make any major moves in the off-season, but its rookie class offers some excitement, keep your eyes on TE's CJ Uzomah and Tyler Kroft. With New York reportedly looking to test its young receiving corps, all signs do indeed point to the visitors as the sharp move in this contest. Play on the GIANTS.
AAA Sports
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08-01-15 |
MONTREAL v. CALGARY -5 |
Top |
22-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
126 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on the Calgary Stampeders. The Stampeders are 0-5 ATS and are coming off an outright loss as a favorite in Hamilton last week. Calgary lost it’s only other road game this year as well in a setback in Montreal earlier in the season. Despite being without starting RB Jon Cornish in the lineup, I think there are enough situational and motivational factors working in favor of the home side to warrant pulling the trigger on a play of this magnitude. Cornish missed a significant portion of last year’s 15-3 season as well, so the Stamps won’t be panicking whatsoever. Backup Matt Walter also missed time in 2015, but he’s healthy now so we don’t see a drop off for Bo Levi Mitchell and the high-flying stampeders. While some may think it an advantage, we don’t think the fact that Montreal is coming off its bye week helps it, in fact we believe it’s a detriment as we expect the extra time off to put a minor kink in what was a well oiled machine that beat the Ti-Cats back on July 16th. Now throw in the fact that the home side can throw everything on the line with a bye week of its own on the horizon and this situational play becomes even stronger as the Stamps will know they can get a well deserved rest after a decisive victory. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Montreal is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range and just 1-2 ATS in its last three following a bye-week. And note that this is a spot in which Calgary has excelled in for bettors, 5-1 ATS the last two years in the month of August and 7-3 ATS in its last ten in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of contests that I keep my eyes open for, play on the STAMPEDERS. AAA Sports
|
07-22-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Atlanta Braves +1.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
22 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.
The visitors hand the ball to Mike Bolsinger (4-3, 3.04 ERA), whose last start was cut short because of a technical glitch with the lights vs. the Nationals last Friday; note that Bolsinger has been hit-or-miss this year, going 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (6-4, 4.53 ERA) who is coming off a somewhat forgettable outing, lasting 4 2/3's innings, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five, not ultimately factoring into the final decision. It wasn't a completely horrible performance, but both Teheran and the Braves have to be liking their chances today as the hard-throwing right-hander is a perfect 5-0 with a tiny 2.18 ERA at home this season. Is Bolsinger the better hurler in this matchup? We don't think so, the value is simply too good to turn down here, this is a very reasonable mid-sized price to pay for an extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
07-13-15 |
Toronto Argonauts v. Calgary Stampeders -6 |
Top |
20-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
81 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Calgary Stampeders.
Calgary is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS to open the year, while Toronto is 2-0 SU/ATS.
For a number of different reasons (situational and trend based), I think the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
Toronto is already 2-0 against the West this season, most recently coming off a big 42-40 win over Saskatchewan at Mosaic last week. As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I'm constantly on the look out for, this no doubt now sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, who can't help but come in a bit complacent here.
Conversely, the Stamps will surely be glad to return home after their humbling 29-11 defeat in Montreal in Week 2.
But if history is any precedence, then Calgary has to be liking its chance for a bounce back effort today as it would go on to sweep the Argos in 2014, including winning 40-33 at McMahon in Week 12.
Expect the Stampeders to put an added emphasis in trying to establish their ground game when on offense, it was the team's most potent weapon last year as Jon Cornish led a unit which averaged 143.9 YPG, but which is averaging only 74.0 so far in 2015. Keeping Toronto honest today will be key for its passing attack as Calgary's talented receivers will definitely test Toronto's rookie-laden secondary (note that the Stamps would run rough shod over the Argos last year, 309 total yards overall, highlighted by Cornish's 174 yards at home in Week 12).
Toronto has looked fine without starting QB Ricky Ray, fourth-year Argo Trevor Harris has filled in seamlessly to this point and has a ton of different options to fall back on, but as I explained earlier, I think this sets up as a letdown position for the visitors, while the home side will clearly be the more desperate/hungry today.
Also note that Toronto is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Calgary is a great 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records and 20-12 ATS in its last 32 when playing the role of favorite.
In my professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the STAMPEDERS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
07-05-15 |
Toronto Argonauts v. Saskatchewan Roughriders -3 |
Top |
42-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
118 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
The Roughriders lost QB Darian Durant for the season, and have brought in Tino Sunseri to backup veteran Kevin Glenn: "Kevin has had success everywhere he's been," Saskatchewan head coach Corey Chamblin told reporters. "So I fully expect him to continue doing the same thing here."; the home side will certainly be motivated here as well after the lacklustre setback to the Blue Bombers in Week 1. The Argos come to town in a letdown position after their outright 26-11 upset win over the Eskimos in Week 1, backup QB Trevor Harris looked great, but I think will have his hands full vs. the highly motivated Riders defensive unit which was frankly embarrassed last week and in this overall very tough and hostile environment. Also note that from a trend based stand point, this plays is also very strong as the Argos are just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 non-conference contests and only 8-10 ATS in their last 18 vs. teams with losing records. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Roughriders have excelled in over the last few years, going 10-8 ATS in their last 18 non-conference tilts. The intensity in which the home side plays with today turns out to be the difference in the end, play on SASKATCHEWAN.
AAA Sports
|
07-04-15 |
B.C. Lions v. Ottawa Redblacks +3 |
Top |
16-27 |
Win
|
100 |
96 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Ottawa Redblacks.
Both teams come into this game with something to prove, the Lions enjoyed a Week 1 bye, while the RedBlacks would shock the Montreal Alouettes 20-16. Note that Ottawa won only two games all of last season and with a chance to win another one in front of the home town crowd, I think the team opens up the playbook today as it looks to keep pace with this explosive Lions offense. With one game under his belt, I expect RedBlacks veteran QB Henry Burris to continue to progress, he'd finish 23 of 36 for 263 yards and a TD vs. the Als. This is a big game for BC as well as it represents head coach Jeff Tedford's CFL debut, his team is loaded with talent including QB Travis Lulay and RB Andrew Harris, as well as WR Emmanuel Arceneaux. Note that BC is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road, while Ottawa is 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. While I do believe that the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on the REDBLACKS.
AAA Sports
|
07-03-15 |
Calgary Stampeders v. Montreal Alouettes +10 |
Top |
11-29 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Montreal Alouettes.
The Alouettes suffered a narrow 20-16 defeat to the Redblacks in their opener and will look to bounce back and keep this one competitive on Friday night. Montreal is not telling anyone who will actually get the start on Friday, but head coach Tom Higgins did announce that both Brandon Bridge and Rakeem Cato would see time under center vs. the Stampeders. Both are competent and each will be eager to make the most of this moment after starter Jonathan Crompton and backup Dan LeFevour both went down in the loss to Ottawa. Bridge is Canadian, while Cato played for Marshall College and is a true dual threat. The defending champs come to town off a nail-biting victory in their Week 1, 24-23 effort vs. Hamilton (it's interesting to note though that the Stamps have a history of ineptitude in this position, it's the 11th straight season in which the team has played its second game of the year on the road and its record is just 4-6 in the previous ten contests). Also note that the Stampeders beat Calgary 31-15 at home in 2014 and hold a 4-3 edge in the seven games played in Montreal since 2008. And finally, take note that the Als are 5-3 ATS in their last eight off a loss vs. a division rival. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do think there are enough factors working in favor of the home side to pull this 10* trigger; play on the ALOUETTES.
AAA Sports
|
07-02-15 |
Hamilton Tiger-Cats v. Winnipeg Blue Bombers +2 |
Top |
52-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
51 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
The Blue Bombers weren't expected to do much this year, but came out of the gates firing, beating a tough rival in Saskatchewan with many of their off-season acquisitions making large contributions. The victory was a big statement and Winnipeg will now look to keep the momentum rolling vs. a Ti-Cats team which is coming off a disappointing loss in its opener, QB Zach Collaros will once again be called upon here to shoulder the load as Hamilton managed just 37 yards with its top three backs sidelined. But from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Hamilton is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, while Winnipeg is 2-0 ATS in its last two off a win over a division rival. While I believe the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the BLUE BOMBERS.
AAA Sports
|
06-27-15 |
Edmonton Eskimos v. Toronto Argonauts +7.5 |
Top |
11-26 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Argonauts.
While I won't call for an outright victory, I do think that the Argos can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will recommend grabbing as many points as you can. This contest is being held in Fort McMurray due to scheduling issues at Rogers Centre and the Pan American Games being held in Toronto this summer, which means that the Argos will play their first five games on the road. Toronto will open the season with backup Trevor Harris under centre with incumbent Ricky Ray on the six-game injured list after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. Harris though is plenty competent, he appeared in five games last year and started the regular season finale against Ottawa, completing 26 of 36 passes for 281 yard and two TD's in the 23-5 victory. Edmonton has also been displaced to start this season by the Women's World cup soccer event, but note that it's just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games, while Toronto is 9-8 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog. These teams are actually very evenly matched, the only reason the spread is so large is because of the absence of Ray, however I don't think the talent discrepancy is that large and expect Harris to do just enough to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on TORONTO.
AAA Sports
|
06-24-15 |
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.
I think this game will be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so in a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extras, I'll look to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (4-4, 4.01 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Marlins on Friday, going seven shutout innings, scattering two hits and three walks while striking out three in the process. Note that it was the third time this season that Leake did not allow a run in a start (also note that Leake owns a highly respectable 3.00 road ERA). The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (11-2, 1.78 ERA), who gave up two earned runs over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Thursday. The Pirates though have struggled in this spot all year long, they come into Tuesday having gone a poor 13-18 (-7.7 units) vs. division opponents. Cole has been fantastic, but it's hard to imagine the Pirates' ace continuing to be as productive as he has without some sort of drop-off, play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
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06-21-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Philadelphia Phillies |
Top |
2-9 |
Loss |
-130 |
24 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.
This is clearly the biggest talent discrepancy on the mound on Sunday and as such, I have no issues at all laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors send Michael Wacha (9-2, 2.48 ERA) to the mound, he went 6 1/3 solid innings to notch his ninth win of the season vs. the Twins on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs off three hits while walking one and striking out five. For the most part Wacha has been as consistent as you could possibly ask for this season and note that he owns a fantastic 6-1, 2.08 ERA road record and a blistering 4-0 and 1.17 ERA "day" game record so far this year. The home side counters with Adam Morgan who is being recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make his major league debut. Morgan is 0-6 with a poor 4.74 ERA in 13 starts for Lehigh Valley and is 13-28 with a 3.53 ERA in 69 career outings in the minors. No need to overanalyze this one, lay the 1.5 runs with confidence, play on the CARDINALS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
06-17-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-140 |
33 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.
The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the reasonable mid to lower sized price. The visitors hand the ball to Wandy Rodriguez (3-2, 3.03 ERA) who actually looked pretty good in his last outing, giving up one run over 6 2/3's innings vs. the Twins on Friday. Note though that the veteran has struggled with consistency throughout his career in interleague starts and is obviously in for a tough test here vs. the reigning Cy Young award Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 3.21 ERA) who would strike out 11 in a no-decision vs. the Padres on Friday, ultimately giving up one run over 6 2/3's innings of work. Kershaw is now fully back on track after a lacklustre start to the campaign, giving up just three earned runs over his last four starts; and note that he's been particularly effective at home once again this year, sporting a sparkling 4-1, 1.99 ERA at Chavez Ravine. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
06-16-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 |
Top |
105-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Sometimes I feel it's necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at individual player match-ups and at situational and motivational factors and in other instances, I believe a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a game. That's definitely the case with this selection. With their backs against the wall, I look for the Cavaliers to play their best game of the series and would obviously not be surprised whatsoever to see the home side win this one outright. And from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, as Golden State is 13-14 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Cleveland is 7-3 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well as "The King" holds serve on his court, play on the CAVALIERS.
AAA Sports
|
06-07-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
95-93 |
Win
|
100 |
59 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I grabbed an early +7 and it's since gone up, but regardless, while I wouldn't be shocked with an outright Cavs victory, I do definitely feel that despite losing Kyrie Irving to injury, that the visitors won't be going down without a fight today and look for them to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy spread afforded to them. Irving had an awesome game, but I think the combination of Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert can fill the void. It was in fact just the second time that Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in the team's last six playoff games. And remember, the Cavaliers were 2-0 SU against the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals without Irving and went 1-1ATS with Dellavedova averaging 14 points in his place (also note that LeBron James picked up the scoring slack vs. the Hawks by averaging 33.5 points in the two games that Irving missed). I had the Warriors as my NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR in Game 1 and obviously feel pretty fortunate to get the victory. This is do or die for the Cavaliers though, if they can somehow manage to steal this one outright, they'd absolutely be in the "drivers seat" heading back home. Golden State has struggled in this spot as well already in the postseason, just 4-5 ATS so far when leading in a playoff series (and note that the Cavs are 10-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest). While the rest of the World goes one way, we'll go the other, grab as many points as you can with CLEVELAND.
AAA Sports
|
06-04-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on the Golden State Warriors.
An interesting match-up indeed, but I think that the Warriors' depth, health and clear home court advantage will ultimately prove to be too much for the Cavaliers. In Game 1 anyways. LeBron James is playing the best basketball of his career, but his supporting cast is not only injured (guard Kyrie Irving is hobbled with a knee issue), but it's arguably the worst one he's had surrounding him in his career. Golden State is loaded with talent up and down the line-up and I simply can't see the Cavs' bench keeping pace. Cleveland's turn around started in January when the team transformed itself into a defensive juggernaut, but now the Cavaliers face their stiffest test yet. Irving has been the most trustworthy defender, but his injury is obviously a major concern for the team. The Cavs have given up just 98.5 points per 100 possessions during the postseason; but note, Golden State's defense has been one of the league's best all year long. The Warriors have played 49 games at Oracle Arena this season and they've won 46 of those outings. Golden State just faced one of the league's most potent offensive weapons in the entire league in James Harden and would go on to dispatch his team in five games. Granted, James is the better and more experienced all around player, but "The King" definitely doesn't have the same supporting cast around him which Harden enjoys. Note that Cleveland is just 6-13 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while Golden State is 48-34 ATS when dubbed the favorite. Look for the WARRIORS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports
|
05-23-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets |
Top |
115-80 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR on the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State has a 2-0 series lead, but has yet to cover the spread. The Rockets have fought valiantly to this point, I had Houston and the UNDER in Game 1 and then the UNDER again in Game 2. However, while Houston continues to deal with injuries, the Warriors continue to gain confidence. One player to keep your eyes on today is the Warriors Stephen Curry, who had 34 points in Game 1 and 33 in Game 2. Obviously it's not going to be a cake walk though: "It hurts, but they did what they had to do," said the Rockets James Harden last night. "They won two games at home. We're going back home to get two games." Golden State though is hardly getting cocky, especially after it let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 2: "They feel like they lost two games they should have won," Golden State's Draymond Green assessed afterwards. "We feel like we almost gave this one away ... we have a ways to go, there's a lot we can get better at. But we're sitting here 2-0 and that's the most important thing." Expect to see a lot of shots from the outside, these teams obviously love shooting the 3-ball, as Golden State leads the league with 29.3 average per game, while Houston clocks in at 27.6. In my professional opinion, we haven't even seen the best of the Warriors yet, this is a difficult match-up for the Rockets and with the injury issues continuing to surround Howard and in a near pick-em game, I think that GOLDEN STATE takes full advantage and finally gets the job done ATS.
AAA Sports
|
05-19-15 |
Houston Rockets +10 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
106-110 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets. I think that the visitors will keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The only thing that people are talking about from the Clippers/Rockets series is the epic collapse from LA, but I think we need to give credit where credit is due, mainly to Kevin McHale and the coaching staff of Houston, which made huge adjustments defensively to come back from the 3-1 series deficit. Now the Rockets come into this series with a ton of confidence and momentum; also note that they play with the revenge factor today after losing all four regular season contests (also note that Dwight Howard sat out two of those meetings and is once again playing at 100% now). These teams are very similar in that they like to play tough defense and then get out on the break and spread out the opposing team with a lot of three-balls; look for each side to be putting an added emphasis on perimeter defense today, making this area a “wash.” From a trend based stand point though, this selection is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Houston is 20-15 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, while Golden State is interestingly just 10-12 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright victory, I do think that the ROCKETS have all of the tools in place to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports
|
05-16-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
32 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.
I played Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners on the RUN-LINE the last time he started and the M's would take a 4-2 lead into the top of the 9th, only to then serve up a two-out, solo home run and win 4-3 in the end. I don't expect that to happen today and look for Hernandez (6-0, 1.85 ERA) and company to take care of business in impressive fashion at the end of the night. It's the best start of "The Kings" career, he's posted a tiny 1.47 ERA in winning five consecutive starts for the third time and second in as may seasons. And that's bad new for the Red Sox, as Hernandez is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his last six starts vs. them, winning four straight at home vs. Boston, posting a minuscule 1.57 ERA in the last three. Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.50 ERA) has always fared well pitching at Safeco Field, but hasn't thrown there since 2011. Porcello has been pretty consistent, but obviously Hernandez gets the clear nod on the mound in this match-up, I think the writing is on the wall and a classic blowout is in the cards, play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
05-10-15 |
Calgary Flames +1.5 v. Anaheim Ducks |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE BLOCKBUSTER on the Calgary Flames.
Desperation breeds motivation and as such, I think the Flames will take this one down to the wire and in a game which I believe will be decided late or in the extra periods, I have no problem at all laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I have played the Ducks a few times throughout this series, including in Game 4 and while I believe that Anaheim is the better team, I'd argue that this naturally sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the 3-1 Ducks (also note that Calgary is 15-9 (+7.2 units) after allowing four goals or more); play on the FLAMES on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
05-10-15 |
Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
95-128 |
Loss |
-105 |
36 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.
I picked the Houston Rockets at +1500 to win the NBA championship before the season started and have to say that I am pretty surprised at the lack of passion this team has showed in this series. The Rockets are a better defensive team that what they've shown to this point and with their backs against the wall today, I believe we'll see a much more complete effort overall on that end tonight. It's also hard to imagine Houston playing any worse on the offensive end, it would go on to miss 12 of its final 15 3-point attempts in Game 3. Note, it was in fact the first time since April 8th in San Antonio that the Rockets were held under the century mark in points. And from an ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Houston is 13-3 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more, while LA is just 26-28 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. While I do indeed feel that the outright win is not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
|
05-10-15 |
Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
27 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.
The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small plus-money return today in my opinion. Felix Hernandez is 5-0 with a 1.73 ERA and is off to the best start of his career. Ironically though, his worst effort of the season came in an 8-7, 10-inning win at Oakland on April 12th, he'd give up three runs and eight hits over just five innings of work. "The King" will be out for a little redemption today. Note that Hernandez would then go on to win his next four starts behind a tiny 1.21 ERA with 33 K's over 29 2/3's innings. Also note that Hernandez has been particularly effective at Safeco Field where he's won all three starts with a 0.78 ERA and 31 K's over 23 innings of work (and finally note, Hernandez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three home starts vs. the A's, completing at least seven innings of work in each). The M's are heating up large at the plate too, after Friday's 4-3, 11-inning win, they'd cruise to a 7-2 win yesterday behind three hits from slugger Robinson Cano, who now has a .357 average in front of the home town crowd. You'll also want to keep your eyes on Nelson Cruz, who leads the league with 14 home runs and tops the team with a .347 overall average. The A's are trending in the opposite direction right now, they've lost four straight and send Jesse Chavez (1-2, 1.80 ERA) to the hill; Chavez is 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts since being moved into the rotation. Chavez looked pretty good in his last outing, but note that he's 0-2 with a pedestrian 4.15 ERA in three starts vs. the Mariners (and finally note, Chavez has really struggled against the M's big boppers as Cano is 5 for 11 off him and Cruz is 3 for 5 with a pair of home runs and a double). Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
05-10-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls +1.5 |
Top |
86-84 |
Loss |
-100 |
31 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bulls.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as all signs once again point to another nail biter in Game 4. I played the UNDER in Game 3 and Derrick Rose's dagger at the buzzer sealed the 99-96 victory for me. The Cavs were able to bounce back in Game 2 behind massive games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, but once again they'd falter in Game 3, the Bulls depth is just too much for the Cavs to handle. This is the biggest game of the entire year for both teams, Chicago can take a commanding grip of this series and I think will take advantage of the friendly confines and find a way to get the job done. For me it's as simple as that: while I feel that James is still the best player in the league and Irving is one of the best, the Bulls' bench will prove to be the difference again today, play on CHICAGO.
AAA Sports
|
05-08-15 |
Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
99-124 |
Loss |
-101 |
32 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.
I got down on this line the second it came out and am saddled with just +3, most of you would have been able to get 4 or at least 4.5 as of Friday morning. However, I still love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win is certainly not out of the question whatsoever, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. LA is almost certainly going to be without the services of all star point guard Chris Paul once again tonight and if he does play, he's not going to be at 100%; suffice it to say, I think this is going to be a major factor. LA has played excellent without its floor general and has gotten Herculean efforts from Blake Griffin, but I simply can't see the team continuing to play so well with his continued absence. In fact, Houston was finally able to make some appropriate adjustments to defend Griffin in the second half of Game 2, it limited him to just 8 points over the final two quarters and overcame a 13-point deficit to win by six, failing to cover the spread for a second straight game by a single point. And the Rockets must also be extremely confident with the return of James Harden's stellar play, after struggling through the first seven quarters of this series, the MVP runner-up would score 16 of his 32 points in the fourth quarter: "We let Game 1 slip away and we didn't want that feeling for Game 2," Harden assessed afterwards.. "It's going to be a tough two games in a row, but we've got our mojo now." Note that Houston is 8-3 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games, while LA is just 1-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range and already 0-3 ATS when tied in a playoff series. Play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
|
05-06-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 |
Top |
109-115 |
Loss |
-101 |
32 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets.
No need to overanalyze this play in my opinion, this is basically a do-or-die game for the Rockets, an 0-2 hole and heading to LA would likely be their downfall and as such, I'm fully expecting all hands on deck tonight and for the home side to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. To tell you the truth, I'm shocked in Houston's effort in Game 1, it was a gift facing the Chris Paul-less Clippers who were coming off an extremely tough seven-game opening round series win over the defending champions. I simply can't see the home side not coming in much more focused tonight, it was uncharacteristically poor play which ultimately would doom the Rockets, the Clippers were able to score 34 points off 24 turnovers. Also note that from a ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as LA is a poor 0-7 ATS the last two years when leading in a playoff series and just 12-14 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins. And note that Houston is 12-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite and 13-2 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
|
05-06-15 |
Chicago Bulls +6 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
91-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
45 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bulls.
I played the Bulls in Game 1 and if you did not get a chance to read that analysis, it's worth a second look here, as for the most part, the reasoning behind it also directly pertains to tonight's selection:
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Yesterday I had a play on the Golden State Warriors and stated that the absence of guard Mike Conley in the Memphis Grizzlies line-up was a major situational factor that was working in our favor and suffice it to say, with two starters sitting out for the Cavaliers, the same line of reasoning also applies in this one. Not only will Cleveland be without the services of big man Kevin Love, but it's also not played in eight days; I think rest turns to rust here. The Bulls in contrast are healthier than they've been in the last three years and have played twice in the last eight days. The stars have truly aligned for Chicago, I think its depth will be just too much for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Game 1; play on CHICAGO.
Both Love and JR Smith will once again be sitting this one out, meaning that James and Irving will once again have to carry the majority of the load. And once again, I think this is simply too much to be asking of them, Chicago's depth at this point of the season is something that the Cavaliers are going to have an extremely hard time over-coming, the only way this team wins is if both James and Irving have monstrous nights. I'll gladly grab the points here. And note that Chicago is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest, while Cleveland is a poor 7-12 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent this season. Play on the BULLS.
AAA Sports
|
05-04-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6 |
Top |
117-101 |
Loss |
-103 |
27 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Houston Rockets.
I chose the Houston Rockets at 15 to 1 to win the NBA Championship last September and while the team has a long way to go before that comes true, it has to be liking its chances today I think as it catches a Clippers club coming off a monumental Game 7 win over the defending NBA Champions; suffice it to say, this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors. All of the emotion and energy that it took to finally get over the hill and vanquish their bitter rival has been expended and the Clippers reward is a quick turn-around for a road game against a focused and well rested Rockets squad. From a situational stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this. I am primarily a situational handicapper at heart and these are obviously the exact types of scenarios that I am constantly looking out for. And as a situational capper, for the most part individual player match-ups rarely factor into my handicapping process and that's the case here. These are two very evenly matched teams (they'd split the regular season 2-2), so finding influencing external factors will be crucial in handicapping this series in my opinion and that's the case here. All signs point to a blowout, play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
|
05-04-15 |
Chicago Bulls +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers |
Top |
99-92 |
Win
|
100 |
76 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bulls.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Yesterday I had a play on the Golden State Warriors and stated that the absence of guard Mike Conley in the Memphis Grizzlies line-up was a major situational factor that was working in our favor and suffice it to say, with two starters sitting out for the Cavaliers, the same line of reasoning also applies in this one. Not only will Cleveland be without the services of big man Kevin Love, but it's also not played in eight days; I think rest turns to rust here. The Bulls in contrast are healthier than they've been in the last three years and have played twice in the last eight days. The stars have truly aligned for Chicago, I think its depth will be just too much for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Game 1; play on CHICAGO.
AAA Sports
|
05-03-15 |
Calgary Flames v. Anaheim Ducks -1.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
144 |
51 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks smell blood in the water and with a chance to take a commanding 2-0 series lead before heading North of the border, I look for the home side to come out with the same determination and focus that it displayed in Game 1's lop-sided 6-1 victory on Thursday. Anaheim can ill afford to give Calgary any hope at all, the Ducks are laden with veterans who looked well rested and sharp in Game 1, Corey Perry led the way with two goals and two assists, giving him an NHL-best 11 postseason points. Calgary is also dealing with injury issues, forwards Michael Ferland and Jiri Hudler both left early with undisclosed injuries in Game 1 and each is questionable tonight. Jonas Hiller has been pulled between the pipes and Karri Ramo will get his first career playoff start tonight for the Flames, always a challenging prospect and another factor definitely working in our favor in my opinion. Anaheim continues to get solid goaltending though, Frederick Andersen has posted a tiny 1.97 GAA in the postseason thus far. The writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, lay the 1.5 goals for the healthy plus-money return.
AAA Sports
|
05-03-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -9 |
Top |
86-101 |
Win
|
100 |
77 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors are exuding confidence right now, while the Grizzlies come to town battered and bruised. In my opinion, this one has all the makings of a beatdown of epic proportions, I look for the hot-shooting home side to bombard the under-manned visitors and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. Memphis is unsure if point guard Mike Conley will start because of surgery he had on his face; if he does play, he'll be far from 100% in my opinion, a crucial factor here that we're going to take advantage of in Game 1. Also note that Golden State has another clear advantage of being able to play in front of the home town crowd where it's 41-2, including winning its past 20 in a row. And note again, the Warriors would go 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the regular season, their only loss came when Andrew Bogut was out with injury, the big man though is back and healthier than ever: "Whether it's a flashy up-tempo game or whether it's an 87-83 game, we feel like we have enough pieces and versatility to win all sorts of ways now," the Warriors Stephen Curry assessed on Friday. "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series." Golden State is fresh, it's healthy, it's confident, I'm backing the WARRIORS in this one.
AAA Sports
|
05-01-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets +4.5 |
Top |
111-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
35 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Brooklyn Nets.
I played Atlanta last time out, but for the most part this series has been pretty damn competitive. In fact, the teams are separated by a mere nine points so far in the playoffs. It was the first time the Hawks had covered in this series and to say home-court advantage is a major factor would be a big understatement I think as each team has won every game on its home court so far. I firmly believe the Nets have a very legitimate shot at continuing that trend tonight, at the very least, keeping it close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. Brooklyn is actually 5-0 in Game 6 best-of-seven, first round series, fighting off elimination the last two years, losing to Chicago in Game 7 in 2013, but beating the Raptors last year. Also note, that from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Atlanta is 0-6 ATS the last two years when leading in a playoff series, while Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS in the same position and time frame, while also going 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. While I would obviously not be shocked at all to see the home side take this one outright, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with BROOKLYN.
AAA Sports
|
04-29-15 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -8.5 |
Top |
97-107 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks.
So far I'm 3-1 in this series, I had the OVER in Game 4, but for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest lies with the home side, which I think surprisingly, has yet to cover in this series. Atlanta has struggled with the Nets so far, after winning the first two games of this series by a combined 12 points, Brooklyn would take Game's 3 and 4, including Monday's 120-115 OT effort to even it. But with the shift in venue, I think this highly motivated and clearly under-achieving Hawks team comes to play today. It's not all doom and gloom for Atlanta obviously, the Hawks have to be feeling very confident today, they've won 24 of their last 27 in front of the home town crowd. And note, Brooklyn has lost 12 of its last 14 in Atlanta. The No. 1 seed has struggled so far, but I think the conditions are now finally right for a lop-sided rout; also note that this is a spot in which the Nets have struggled in for bettors all year, a poor 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 10-13 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. Conversely, this is a position in which the Hawks have dominated in, a great 8-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 12-9 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. This is it, the game that ATLANTA fans have been waiting for, lay the points.
AAA Sports
|
04-26-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
101-93 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I've targeted the total over the first three games of this series, but finally shift my attention to the side and with a chance to wrap up this series with a big effort tonight, I am fully expecting the Cavs to clamp down defensively and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. The Celtics have put up a valiant fight, but with the knowledge of the fact that no team in NBA playoff history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a series, I believe the home side will throw in the white towel against this hungry and determined Cavs team. It was a complete team effort for Cleveland in Game 3 and the team is simply exuding confidence at the moment. The C's stars are starting to show signs of stress, Isaiah Thomas led Boston with 44 points over the first two games, but was limited to five on 2 of 9 shooting on Thursday. I think the stage is set for a beatdown performance in Game 4. Note that Cleveland is 9-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest, while Boston is just 3-4 ATS in the same position. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-25-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -2.5 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
83-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
28 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks.
Slow starts in Games 1 and 2 have seen the Hawks hold on for a SU victory in both, but unable to cover the spread in either. I think that changes tonight though and look for the under-performing visitors to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. Atlanta would lead by as many 16 in Game 1 before gutting out the 99-92 win after allowing the Nets to close to within four in the final two minutes. The Hawks also had a 12 point lead in Game 2 and would have to hold on for the 96-91 victory. Atlanta came into this series with some bumps and bruises, but players like Paul Millsap and Al Horford have clearly started to make some adjustments and I think the Hawks are just getting stronger at this point. I also think the Nets have to be feeling pretty lucky to have even put up as much as a fight as they've done to this point, as note that they've shot 45.2 percent, including hitting just 13 of 46 from long range so far in this series. Also note that Atlanta is 23-15 ATS on the road this year, while Brooklyn is just 17-23 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I'm not buying what the bookmakers are trying to sell here and am expecting a lop-sided rout, lay the short points on the HAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
04-24-15 |
Toronto Raptors +4 v. Washington Wizards |
Top |
99-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
36 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Raptors.
For a number of different reasons I expect the desperate Raptors to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the hand full of points they've been afforded. It's a do-or-die game for the underachieving visiting side, no team in NBA playoff history has ever rallied from an 0-3 hole to win a series: "If being down 0-2 (doesn't) stimulate urgency, then I don't know what would," Raptors guad DeMar DeRozan confirmed last night. "Nobody's ready to go home, nobody's ready to pack it up. We understand how bad we played these last two games and we want to do a lot better." As a primarily a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups rarely factor into my decision process and that's the case here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range and just 4-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Conversely, note that Toronto is 6-4 ATS this year as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range and 8-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the RAPTORS.
AAA Sports
|
04-22-15 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -10 |
Top |
91-96 |
Loss |
-100 |
58 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks. For the most part the No. 1 seeds have struggled to cover the spread in both the East and the West, but I finally feel that the conditions are right for a lop-sided blowout and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cash. I had the Nets in Game 1 and feel fortunate to have come away with the 99-92 victory as the Hawks were clearly struggling in stretches. But with that awkward first contest out of the way, I think it’s going to be business as usual for high-flying Atlanta. Remember, Brooklyn went 0-4 against Atlanta in the regular season by an average of 17.2 points. Both teams are banged up, I’m not reading too much into that angle at all, but take note that the Nets are a poor 4-5 ATS this season as a road underdog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Atlanta is a great 27-22 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99 plus points per contest. I expect the home side to play a lot “looser” this evening and believe this factor to translate into production on both ends of the court for ATLANTA. AAA Sports
|
04-21-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 |
Top |
117-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
70 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Raptors.
I played the Wizards in Game 1, but with their backs against the wall, I look for the Raptors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and head to the nation's capital all knotted up. Game 1 saw Washington gut out the 93-86 OT victory, but note that it was actually a rarity for the team who would struggle mightily on the road, losing 15 of their last 19 away from friendly confines. Toronto's big men got caught out of position in Game 1, the defense was stretched and was ultimately outrebounded 61-48 once the smoke cleared; also note that the Raptors had to deal with all-star Kyle Lowry fouling out with 2:36 remaining in the fourth quarter. Toronto actually did a very good job in shutting down the Wizards dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, the duo combining for just 26 points. Note that Washington is just 3-5 ATS off an upset win as underdog this year, while Toronto is 8-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the RAPTORS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-20-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors -11 |
Top |
87-97 |
Loss |
-108 |
51 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I am expecting the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I grabbed this line the second it came out and got -10.5, it's since gone up, but regardless, I love this selection and fully expect the Warriors to push the pace of this one from the outset and to run the visitors off the court before the end of the third quarter. Note that the Warriors have won 19 straight and 40 of 42 in Oakland. Anthony Davis rallied his team from a 25 point deficit but would ultimately come up short in Game 1, the big man finished with 35 points and seven boards, but suffice it to say, I believe this now sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Pelicans; they gave it their absolute best shot and still were unable to get the SU victory. Knowing that they did survive New Orleans' best effort is a huge mental boost for Golden State, I am fully expecting the Warriors to come out extremely confident this evening. Look for Golden State to stretch the now deflated Pelicans defense today, in my professional opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the WARRIORS.
AAA Sports
|
04-20-15 |
Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 |
Top |
7-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
31 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.
In my opinion, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return in this matchup. After a slow start to the season the M's are starting to find their stroke both on the mound and at the plate, suffice it to say I am fully expecting this momentum to get carried over here. After a four-game losing streak, Seattle has won back to back games and slugged out 17 hits to win 11-10 vs. the Rangers yesterday, one day after Felix Hernandez struck out 12 in Saturday's 3-1 victory. And that's bad news for Astros starter Asher Wojciechowski who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA to start the year. Wojciechowski struggled in his first outing after getting called up to replace Brad Peacock after he went on the DL and was a bit better in Monday's 8-1 loss to Oakland, giving up two hits over four scoreless frames. Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma can empathize, he's struggled over his first two starts in giving up nine runs and three homers in 11 innings, but note that the M's are 5-3 (+1.3) units vs. right-handed starters this year. I'm giving the Mariners the slight nod on the bump and a slight nod at the plate, all signs point to SEATTLE on the RUN-LINE as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-18-15 |
Washington Wizards +4.5 v. Toronto Raptors |
Top |
93-86 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Ultimately I think that the Raptors' lack of a true big man will be a major detriment to them in this series. A lot of the focus of this series is of course in the back-court, each team sports strong units, the Raptors have Lowry and DeRozan while the Wizards have Wall and Beal; clearly this area is a "wash." To say this is a "revenge" game for the visitors though would be a massive understatement as Toronto took all three in the regular season series this year and three of four last season; note though that three of the past four meetings have been decided by five points or fewer, with two going into the extra frame. The Wizards remain confident: "With the playoffs here, (regular season results) don't matter," Beal said. "It's a totally different style of basketball. Totally different mentalities, totally different intensity level, totally different atmosphere." With part of the Raptors attention turned to veteran Paul Pierce, I think that WASHINGTON can take advantage this afternoon.
AAA Sports
|
04-10-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
98-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
While I do feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Wolves to take this one down to the wire. LA has gone 0-5 this month, but Minnesota has lost eight straight. The last time that LA won was a 101-99 OT effort over Minnesota back on March 25th. The "revenge factor" definitely comes into play here. Note that LA had six players out in its listless 119-101 setback to Denver on Wednesday and all will also be sitting today. The Wolves can empathize, they also have several key injuries to deal with, but one player to keep your eyes on today is rookie Andrew Wiggins who has averaged 24.3 points in his last nine games and who had 27 in the loss vs. the Lakers last month. From an ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Wolves are 15-10 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while LA is a poor 9-13 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on MINNESOTA.
AAA Sports
|
04-10-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +3 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the hungry and revenge minded home side to find a way to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs beatdown of the Rockets on Wednesday pulled them to within a half-game of Houston in the Southwest Division. San Antonio has been on quite the roll, it's won nine straight overall and two straight in this series, but I think will finally have a letdown here as it will be playing its third game in four days. There's no question the Rockets will be looking to avenge the most recent 110-98 loss on Wednesday and they should definitely feel confident in this position, they have in fact won four straight and seven of the last eight in this series in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Spurs are 0-6 ATS this year as a road favorite of 3 points or less and just 6-8 TS vs. division opponents, while the Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less and 11-2 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Spurs, the motivational situational and strong trend based factors working in favor of HOUSTON are overwhelming and will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-08-15 |
Houston Rockets +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
98-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.
I played against the Spurs last night and while that was obviously a bad call, I think we're getting pretty good line value in this spot and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Rockets to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points they've been afforded tonight. The Rockets catch the Spurs amid an awesome run, San Antonio has won 18 of its last 21 games, getting the job done with suffocating defensive pressure. However, now the home side must face the revenge minded Rockets and NBA leading scorer James Harden. Houston has won ten of 12 while averaging 107.1 points - that PPG average rises to 112.7 during the Rockets recent three-game win skein. Note that Harden has been particularly dominant of late, averaging 38.7 PPG on 54.8 percent shooting and 61.5 from beyond the arc; also note that Harden has torched the Spurs whenever given the opportunity in averaging 26.8 over the past eight meetings (his 28 was not enough in his team's 110-106 road defeat on December 28th). Note that Houston is 16-12 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, also 14-7 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records and 27-22 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest. And note that San Antonio is in fact a poor 5-8 ATS vs. division opponents this season and just 3-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to HOUSTON as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-07-15 |
Los Angeles Kings -1.5 v. Edmonton Oilers |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
30 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
This is a massively important game for the visitors and as such, I'm expecting a high-scoring blowout. The Kings are 19-1-7 in their last 27 meetings vs. the Oilers, going 11-0-3 in Edmonton in that stretch so have to be feeling pretty confident obviously. Most recently LA pounded the Oil 8-2 at home on Thursday. The Kings are in a dog fight with Calgary for third in the division, but one point behind Winnipeg for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. LA will also especially be motivated here to bounce back after Monday's 2-1 shootout defeat to the Canucks on Monday. Another big reason behind this PUCK-LINE wager is Jonathan Quick, who is 14-1-5 with a 1.56 GAA vs. Edmonton lifetime. Edmonton has been out of the playoff picture for a while and continues to deal with a rash of injuries, meaning that the team's younger players will get a chance to play in the NHL to end the season. Enough said. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, lay the 1.5 goals for the pick-em price.
AAA Sports
|
04-07-15 |
Arizona Coyotes v. Calgary Flames -1.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames.
I look for the Flames to handle the lowly Coyotes today and fully expect a blowout. Calgary goaltender Jonas Hiller has a 1.97 GAA during his seven-game win streak vs. Arizona and will look to help his team move to 5-0-0 vs. against the club this season. Calgary has outscored the Coyotes 17-6 over the first four meetings and owns a 29-15 goal advantage while winning seven straight at home vs. Arizona. Note that the Coyotes are just 2-15 (-11.2 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while the Flames are 20-7 (+16.8 points) vs. division opponents. No need to overanalyze this one, all signs point to a rout, play on CALGARY on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
04-07-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 |
Top |
113-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Despite still playing for home court advantage throughout the playoffs, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and look for the "hungry" home side to at the very least, keep this this one close enough to escape with the comfortable ATS cover with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs come into this game having won seven straight and are a lights out 17-3 since February 27th. It's really hard not to imagine the Spurs coming in a tiny bit complacent tonight though, especially after ending Golden State's 12-game run with a 107-92 victory at home on Sunday. The Thunder on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and have had to overcome injury issues all season. OKC still leads ninth-placed New Orleans by one half-game though and will clearly be looking to get back into the winners circle after losing five of six and three in a row for the first since mid November. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the Spurs in my opinion, but it also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as well with a game against division rival Houston at home tomorrow night. The Thunder on the other hand don't play again until Friday, the home side has no excuses this evening, in reality, this is almost a do or die game for for the club. Also note that San Antonio is just 9-10 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU wins, while OKC is 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, 18-14 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 3-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I do feel the that outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with OKLAHOMA CITY.
AAA Sports
|
04-06-15 |
Columbus Blue Jackets v. NY Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
26 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers.
Motivation at this time of year is a big factor that I like to take advantage of and in this case, these two teams come into this game with a completely different mind-set. The Jackets have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rangers are still seeking home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I expect New York to come away with a convincing rout. Rick Nash potted his 42nd goal of the year in New York's 6-1 home win over the Devils on Saturday. The Rangers will be especially motivated as well, as while Columbus will indeed not be playing in the postseason, it's played extremely well of late, coming into this game having won nine-straight on the road. Note that while Jackets' goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has a 2.33 GAA in winning his last eight starts, he's just 2-6-1 with a 2.64 GAA in his last nine vs. the Rangers. New York has turned to Henrik Lundqvist again, who has given up three goals in winning twice since returning from injury. I think the conditions are definitely right for a concerted blowout here, lay the 1.5 goals with NEW YORK on the PUCK LINE for the plus money return.
AAA Sports
|
04-04-15 |
Calgary Flames -1.5 v. Edmonton Oilers |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
168 |
30 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames.
For a number of different reasons I expect the Flames to hammer the Oilers here and to sweep the season series with a resounding victory, in my opinion we're getting unreal value on the puck-line today. Calgary remains in third in the Pacific Division and will be eager to return to form after falling 4-1 at St. Louis on Thursday. This is a huge do or die game in a way for the Flames as they sit one point ahead of LA, which is tied for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference with Winnipeg and who host the Kings and Jets to conclude the regular season: "We're down to four games," coach Bob Hartley said. "We enjoy being in this situation. There's pressure, there's challenges but that's why we're pros. I told them (after Thursday's game) our minds should already be on Edmonton." A game vs. the lowly Oilers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, the Flames have outscored them 27-10 over the last six meetings and recorded at least four gaols in all four matchups this year. Also note that Calgary goaltender Jonas Hiller is 11-2-1 with a 1.77 GAA in his last 15 games vs. Edmonton. In my opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, all signs definitely point to CALGARY on the PUCK-LINE as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-04-15 |
Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
154 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Kentucky.
A couple of No. 1's collide in the Final Four, for a number of different reasons I expect undefeated Kentucky to remain so once again after this game is over and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It would not be hard whatsoever writing a convincing argument for either of these teams obviously, but I simply think this is a match-up which clearly benefits the Wildcats and think Kentucky's speed will prove to be just too much for the Badgers to overcome this time. Granted, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky is a match-up problem for any team he faces, but beyond him and Sam Dekker, who else can the Badgers turn to? This plays right into the Wildcats "wheel house" defensively, who employ a "help" style of defense. Also note that Wisconsin is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, while Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when playing with five or six days of rest. The WILDCATS overall team depth is the reason I'm backing them today.
AAA Sports
|
04-04-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks +3.5 |
Top |
123-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
28 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive and at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded. I jumped on this line the second it came out and only got 3.5, the line has since climbed, so you should hopefully be able to get a better number than I did, but regardless, I still love this selection. The Mavericks are going to be hungry today as they look to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors. It's hard not to imagine Golden State coming in complacent today as it's won 16 of 17 and 11 in a row. Golden State has been winning, but note that its last two games have not been easy, a 110-106 victory over the Clippers on Tuesday and a 107-106 effort over Phoenix on Thursday. I think the visitors come into this contest in a classic letdown spot. While Dallas is assured a place in the postseason, it's been scuffling of late in dropping five of seven, most recently a 108-101 setback by Houston on Thursday. There's no question in my mind that the Mavs come in focused tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, but it's also strong from a trend based stand point as note that Golden State is in fact a poor 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-04-15 |
Michigan State +5.5 v. Duke |
Top |
61-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
While I do believe the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect MSU to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it today. Note that this is a revenge game for the Spartans who were routed by the Blue Devils back in November. Both of these teams have pretty much run roughshod over their competition so far and for the most part in the Tournament and these schools matchup pretty well against each other. Duke has not been unbeatable this year though, it looked pretty ordinary in losses to UNC and Miami. This play is almost entirely based on some very strong ATS trends though, as note that Michigan State is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Duke is just 6-10 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less. I feel that the TROJANS defense is getting little respect today.
AAA Sports
|
04-03-15 |
Charlotte Hornets v. Indiana Pacers -5 |
Top |
74-93 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.
For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but each still has a mathematical shot at reaching the promised land. If history is any precedence though, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances as they've won 11 straight in Indiana in this series. Charlotte actually sits just above the Pacers in the playoff race and can secure the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Hornets as they've taken two of three meetings, most recently a hard-fought 103-102 decision on the road on February 8th. Indiana is actually 16-3 in the last 19 in the series, holding Charlotte to an average of just 88.6 points during an 11-game home winning streak and will be extra anxious to return to form after dropping nine of its last 11 overall. While the Hornets have won two of three, note that this is a spot in which the team has struggled in all season for bettors, just 5-7 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, also just 1-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note that this is in fact a position in which Indiana has excelled in, 10-8 ATS after a loss by ten points or more and 6-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this game favors the home side on a number of different levels, play on the PACERS.
AAA Sports
|
04-02-15 |
Edmonton Oilers v. Los Angeles Kings -1.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
I think the Oilers get punched in the mouth early and fold up their tents as the hungry home side takes full advantage of this favorable late season cream-puff. LA is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in with just five games to go after a costly two game slide; there's no question that this is a do or die game for the home side. However, take note, LA still controls its only playoff destiny as it has a game in hand on the Jets and the tiebreaker, plus it also has a game in hand over the Flames and can pass Calgary if it wins out. These are the types of situations which have defined the Kings organization during its recent run of supremacy and I don't expect anything to change this year either. The Oilers had been doing a decent job of playing spoiler of late but come in off a disastrous 5-1 loss to Anaheim on Wednesday (note that Edmonton is 1-9 (-8 units) when playing on back-to-back days); in my opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the KINGS on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
04-02-15 |
Stanford v. Miami (FL) +1.5 |
Top |
66-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
26 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami.
For a number of different reasons I expect Miami to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. As we can tell by this spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's my take on it as well, I simply feel that Miami's depth and experience will prove to be too much for the Cardinal today. The Hurricanes have dealt with adversity all year and here they are in the finale of the NIT: "We play much better when we are loose," coach Jim Larranaga assess last night. "We like being the underdog. We like having to overcome adversity -- and unfortunately we even like to overcome deficits." Stanford played well early on in the year, but the time that Selection Sunday arrived, the team had lost eight of 12 and were also ravaged by the injury bug. I think Miami has the slight advantage with personnel, but note that Stanford is a poor 2-5 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while the Hurricane are 4-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest, and 7-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-01-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 |
Top |
91-95 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Milwaukee Bucks.
I jumped on this line the second it came out and got +3.5 and while it's since gone the other way (is +5 as of writing this analysis), I still love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Bucks to at the very least, sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they've been afforded tonight. This is a triple revenge spot for Milwaukee as well as Chicago has taken the first three. I also think this sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors who come into this game having won three straight. While the Bulls are rolling, the Bucks are stumbling, dropping eight of their last ten and holding onto sixth spot in the East. In my opinion, desperation breeds motivation and I think the home side is set to keep this one competitive; one player to keep your eyes on is Milwaukee's Michael Carter-Williams who has averaged 12.8 points in 17 games since coming over to the Bucks. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Bucks are 9-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, 8-5 ATS vs. division opponents and 26-19 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Chicago is just 1-2 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest, just 2-5 ATS after allowing 85 points or less, only 10-16 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and just 3-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MILWAUKEE as the sharp move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
04-01-15 |
Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
135-131 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the under-rated visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Both teams will be playing in the postseason, but each comes into this game in different situations. The Mavs have been scuffling, while OKC has still managed to win despite a slew of injuries. As I always like to say: "desperation breeds motivation!" I think this is a great motivational spot bet, the Mavs will be the "hungrier" team today in my opinion and have to be loving the chance to take advantage of this wounded and clearly over-performing home side. Most recently Dallas would take a 61-55 lead into the break vs. Indiana on Sunday, only to come out flat in the second half and ultimately fall 104-99. The Thunder not only have to deal with the loss of all star Kevin Durant for the season, but now also big man Serge Ibaka and while Russell Westbrook continues to pull off the miraculous, I think he'll have a much more difficult time tonight vs. this focused Mavs team. Note that Dallas is 15-12 ATS this year following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. Play on the MAVERICKS.
AAA Sports
|
03-31-15 |
Stanford v. Old Dominion +2.5 |
Top |
67-60 |
Loss |
-106 |
35 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Old Dominion.
They say defense wins championships and while that's certainly not always the case, I do think that ODU's smothering defensive play will be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome today and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Monarchs to take this one down to the wire. Stanford is 22-13 overall and finished 9-9 in Pac 12 play, while Old Dominion is 27-7 overall, finishing 13-5 in the Conference USA. These teams have not faced each other since 2000. OD has won nine of its last ten, anchored by a stout defense which holds opponents to just 56.8 percent shooting overall and only 30.8 percent from three-point range. Both teams would use home-court to their advantage to make it to the semifinal round at MSG, but that is obviously a factor which can be thrown out the window now. However, what can't be ignored is the travel across the country for Pac 12 Stanford, compared to a short jaunt for OD. I think this is a big advantage for the Monarchs. Also note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year, while Old Dominion is 3-2 ATS in the same position. A tough defense and logistical advantages make OLD DOMINION the savvy move in this one.
AAA Sports
|
03-30-15 |
Edmonton Oilers v. Colorado Avalanche -1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
28 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche.
I think the Avs pound the Oilers tonight and believe we're getting awesome value with the PUCK-LINE in this one. Colorado will be out for revenge after falling to the Oilers in Edmonton last week. After that costly setback though the Avs have won two straight, including a 5-3 victory over Buffalo on Saturday: "All we can do is enjoy playing these games, try to win them, play hard and try to do our part," Avs forward Jarome Iginla said. "Right now, they still mean a lot in the standings. We know it'll take some great breaks and nice bounces to get in, but we're going to try to do our part." Note that goaltender Semyon Varlamov is 4-0-0 with a 1.72 GAA at the Pepsi Center this month. And that's bad news for Edmonton which is 0-3-2 on the road since March 1st, allowing a combined 22 goals in the past four of those contests. Note that the Oilers are a poor 4-14 (-9.1 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, while the Avalanche are 20-12 (+7.7 units) vs. teams with losing records this season. In my opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the AVALANCHE on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
03-29-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics +5.5 |
Top |
119-106 |
Loss |
-107 |
25 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Boston Celtics.
I think the Clippers come in a bit complacent tonight and while I do obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question for the playoff hopeful home side, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for Boston to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it today. This is the final game of a three game road trip for the Clippers, who have won the first two, most recently clinching a playoff spot after thumping the 76ers 119-98 on Friday night. In my opinion, this is sets up as the very definition of a letdown spot, the final game of an Eastern road swing, coming off back-to-back victories and already punching your ticket to the post-season? Conversely, the C's are in a dog fight right now for the final two spots in the East and currently occupy the eighth slot by one-half game over Brooklyn (note that the Nets are at home to the Lakers today). Note that LA loves to get out and push the pace of the game, but Boston is ranked third in the NBA in fast-break points allowed. Also note that the Clippers are just 17-27 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and just 13-16 ATS in all non-conference games, while the Celtics are 23-15 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CELTICS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
03-29-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +7 v. Brooklyn Nets |
Top |
99-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
23 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Lakers.
I think this sets up as a classic let down spot for the Nets and look for the Lakers to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a big and extremely satisfying 106-98 win over Cleveland on Friday and now sits one-half game back of eighth-place Boston in the East. Not only does this set up as a let down spot, it's also a look-ahead spot with a game against the playoff hopeful Pacers on Tuesday. I think LA keeps this one competitive, note that it's 25-21 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 16-11 ATS in all non-conference games. And note that Brooklyn has struggled in this position all season, a horrible 11-21 ATS in all home games, 4-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and just 7-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here after considering all of the above factors, play on the NETS.
AAA Sports
|
03-29-15 |
Michigan State -2 v. Louisville |
Top |
76-70 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
For a number of different reasons, I expect MSU to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. These two teams have long histories of excellence in this tournament and coaches Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino are obviously considered a "wash" today. As we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's the case for sure, they're similar in many ways and match-up well against each other as well. So where's the advantage? I think MSU has a certain toughness that Louisville lacks, it's a factor that can't be overlooked in my opinion. Also note that the Spartans are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest and 17-11 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. And note that Louisville is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. I think this line should be a few points higher, great value with MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports
|
03-28-15 |
Buffalo Sabres v. Colorado Avalanche -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche.
Hope breeds motivation and as such, I look for the hungry home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup and blowout the lowly Sabres this evening. Colorado is still desperately pushing towards the playoffs as it still sits 10 points behind Winnipeg for the second wild-card spot with eight games remaining. The Avs had lost three in a row before dominating the Canucks 4-1 on Thursday and have averaged 3.9 goals in winning eight straight in this series, including a 5-1 destruction back on December 20th. The Sabres continue their stumble towards the finish line, they've lost 11 of 12 after falling 4-3 in OT to Arizona on Thursday; note, the visitors will be without the services of offensive star Tyler Ennis who suffered an upper-body injury in the setback to the Coyotes. I think that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, all signs point to COLORADO on the PUCK-LINE as the savvy move here.
AAA Sports
|
03-28-15 |
Notre Dame +11.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
66-68 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.
While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Irish can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that it's been afforded tonight. Notre Dame legitimately feels that it has a shot at the outright upset: "We are America's team tomorrow," Irish coach Mike Brey said Friday. "And we love it, we certainly will take all that support. We've got a monumental challenge on our hands." After its 39 point win over WVU, I think this naturally sets up as a bit of letdown spot for the Wildcats in some small manner. The great equalizer at this point of the tournament is the 3-ball, and Notre Dame shoots it as good as anyone; I also believe the Irish's overall toughness is a factor in which can't be overlooked today. Also note that this is in fact a spot in which Kentucky has struggled in for bettors this year, just 12-13 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, while this is a position in which the Fighting Irish have excelled in by going 6-2 ATS as the underdog and 9-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to NOTRE DAME as the sharp move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
03-28-15 |
Arizona -1.5 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
78-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Arizona.
Both of these teams have looked vulnerable at times during this tournament, but here they are in the Elite 8 and as we can tell by this spread, the oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly matched. So where's the edge? I think Arizona's perimeter game and quickness will prove to be the difference and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is also a major revenge game for the Wildcats after falling 64-63 to Wisconsin in OT in last year's Elite 8; suffice it to say, this is a massive motivational factor which I believe the books have not properly taken into account today. Also note that Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Wisconsin is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 in the same position. In my opinion, this spread is a little low, play on ARIZONA.
AAA Sports
|
03-27-15 |
Michigan State v. Oklahoma +2.5 |
Top |
62-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
120 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Oklahoma to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to escape with the ATS victory with the handful of points that it's been afforded tonight. MSU coach Tom Izzo has the experience factor working for him, but I think that the Sooners will present significant match-up issues for his team on the court and that Oklahoma's depth will ultimately prove to be the difference maker today. Oklahoma's smothering defensive play will also come up big in my opinion, the Spartans face a well-oiled unit that's limited opponents to 38.6 field-goal percentage. MSU is coming off a big upset, 60-54 victory over second-seeded Virginia last week and I think this sets up as a classic let-down spot for it. As he does every time at this year, Izzo has his team performing at an extremely high level, but note that MSU is just 7-8 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Oklahoma is 12-10 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Play on the SOONERS.
AAA Sports
|
03-27-15 |
Utah v. Duke -4.5 |
Top |
57-63 |
Win
|
100 |
122 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke.
For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Utes coach Larry Krystkowiak has 110 career wins, 68 in four seasons in Utah, which has advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade. Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has made 22 Sweet 16 appearances and has won more than 1,000 games. While the game is played by the players, there's no question that at this level and stage of the tournament, coaching is also a factor which can't be underestimated. Utah scraped by Stephen F. Austin in the opening round and managed to find a way to beat Georgetown in the second, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, Duke presents significant match-up issues for the Utes, especially in the back court. DUKE has excelled in this spot for bettors all year (12-5 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, 5-1 ATS in all tournament games and 6-2 ATS in all neutral court contests) and I look for that string to continue here, lay the short points.
AAA Sports
|
03-26-15 |
Xavier +11 v. Arizona |
Top |
60-68 |
Win
|
100 |
99 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Xavier.
While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think that Xavier can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the ample spread that it's been afforded today. Xavier sports a young line-up and obviously faces a daunting task against the season Wildcats, but I think the pressure is clearly on Arizona here and expect the Musketeers to take advantage of the situation. This selection however is mainly based on strong ATS trends that are clearly working in our favor today, note that Xavier is already 5-3 ATS in all neutral court games this season and 20-14 ATS in its last 34 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Arizona is just 4-5 ATS in all neutral court games this year. Look for XAVIER to play loose and for Arizona to get caught looking ahead.
AAA Sports
|
03-26-15 |
Wichita State v. Notre Dame |
Top |
70-81 |
Win
|
103 |
93 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.
I played this line the second it came out and got a PICK and it's since moved to +2, but regardless, I love this selection as I feel that the Irish own significant advantages in almost every facet and expect the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory. Notre Dame is 31-5 now and will look to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 1979, advancing to the Sweet 16 after an extremely hard-fought 67-64 OT win over Butler in the Rnd. of 32. Wichita State continues to prove the naysayers wrong, most recently pulling off the upset over Kansas. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a letdown spot finally for the Shockers. These teams pit strengths, as Wichita State smothers its opponents with stifling defensive play, while the Irish will be looking to push the pace from the outset, its reputation is built on its free-flowing offense and I think it will be the difference maker today. Notre Dame's prolific outside shooting game is going to stretch the Shockers like no other teams has to this point, also note that Wichita State is a poor 2-5 ATS in all tournament games this season and 1-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest. And note that Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-3 ATS in all tournament games. I think the IRISH are the more complete all around team and expect this depth and ability to ultimately prove to be the difference in the final outcome.
AAA Sports
|
03-23-15 |
Buffalo Sabres v. Dallas Stars -1.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-130 |
28 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Stars.
Dallas needs to continue to push to make the postseason and because of that, I am not expecting a lapse in concentration vs. the lowly Sabres and believe this focus and determination will translate into a blowout, making the PUCK-LINE the savvy move here. The Stars also play with revenge here after falling to league-worst Buffalo earlier in the season. Dallas though comes in with plenty of momentum, it moved to 5-1-0 in its last six after thrashing Chicago 4-0 on Saturday: "We put ourselves in a tough spot," Stars' coach Lindy Ruff said last night. "That chase is hard, it's going to be agonizing is what it's gonna be but we just gotta keep taking care of our own end. We can't do anything about Winnipeg winning. Our responsibility is to take it a day at a time and keep winning games." Note that Dallas is the second-highest scoring team in the league with 3.07 GPF, while Buffalo is the worst at 1.76. Also note that the Sabres are a poor 6-17 (-5.5 units) in all non-conference games this year, while Dallas is 18-13 (+3.6 units) in the same position. Play on the STARS on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
03-22-15 |
Oregon v. Wisconsin -12 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-106 |
27 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.
For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" team to come in focused, to control this one from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Oregon lost to Wisconsin 85-77 in last year's round of 32 in Milwaukee, going on a 25-9 run to wipe out a 12-point halftime deficit. The Badgers are the No. 1 seed in the West Region and defeated Coastal Carolina 86-72, while Oregon held on to beat Oklahoma State 79-73. I just can't see the Ducks matching up against the size of the Badgers today though, whose front-line consists of 7-footer Frank Kaminsky, 6-9 Dekker and 6-8 Nigel Hayes; note that Freshman Jordan Bell at 6-9 is the only Oregon starter bigger than 6-6. Also note that only one starter from last year's loss is still with the Ducks this season, while the core of Wisconsin's winning team remains. This is a great situational play, the BADGERS enjoy advantages in all phases and in every position, I think that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards.
AAA Sports
|
03-22-15 |
Dayton v. Oklahoma -4 |
Top |
66-72 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma.
The Flyers started this tournament off with a Final Four contest on their home floor and then followed that up with a win over Providence late Friday at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, which is just 80 miles from their campus. Oklahoma has been preparing for this game as a true road contest: "Fair or unfair. That doesn't even come up," coach Lon Kruger said Saturday. "We're playing Dayton with a crowd that's going to be pro-Dayton. We understand that it adds to the challenge." It's been a great run for Dayton, but I think it will finally stumble here, Oklahoma is the bigger and deeper team and I think it's this versatility which will prove to be too much for the Flyers to match-up to. Also note that the Flyers are in fact a poor 1-2 ATS in their last three as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, while Oklahoma is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Expect the SOONERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports
|
03-22-15 |
Michigan State +5 v. Virginia |
Top |
60-54 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER Michigan State.
For a number of different reasons I expect the Spartans to keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. These teams battled in last year's NCAA Tournament regional semifinal at Madison Square Garden and Michigan State would knock-off top-seeded Virginia 61-59: "We know, there's definitely got to be a revenge factor for them," MSU guard Travis Trice said Saturday. "It would be the same thing for us if a team put us out last year." As they seemingly do every year, the Spartans are playing their best ball of the entire season at the most opportune of times, Michigan State knocked off a tough Georgia team and I believe has a mental edge in today's contest as well. Virginia gets the job done with smothering defensive play, but MSU would flip the script on the Cavs last year, holding them to 35.1 percent shooting. Note that Michigan State is 8-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams, while Virginia is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing on a neutral court. Two proud, confident teams that are going to battle down to the wire, in this situation, all signs point to the points as the savvy move, play on MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports
|
03-21-15 |
Butler v. Notre Dame -4.5 |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-108 |
35 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.
For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" overall team to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. These schools are separated by just 150 miles but have faced off just once in the last 20 years. Butler finished 23-10 while the third-seeded Irish were 30-5, capturing the ACC Tournament title this season after finishing just 15-17 last. The Bulldogs get the job done with a hard-nosed defense, but ultimately I think the senior players on Notre Dame will break through and produce against the unit, note that Butler would hang on to beat Texas last time out despite making just five shots in the second half. While the Bulldogs will have the services of second-leading scorer Roosevelt Jones today after he hyper-extended his knee in the win over the Longhorns, he'll be far from 100% effective. Frankly, that's not good news for a team that already struggles to put points on the board. Notre Dame has one of the countries most efficient offenses and it's been even better in recent weeks, averaging eight 3-pointers a game. I think this spread should be closer to double digits, expect the IRISH to push the pace of this one from the outset and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports
|
03-21-15 |
Buffalo Sabres v. Nashville Predators -1.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.
I believe the highly-motivated Predators will bury the Sabres here, all signs point to laying the 1.5 goals for the near pick-em price as the savvy move in this contest. Certainly Nashville will be hungry here as it looks to end a five-game slide in front of the home town crowd, most recently a 3-2 OT loss to Minnesota on Tuesday: "It's frustrating," coach Peter Laviolette said. "It's frustrating for everybody. At the end of the night, you've got to win games. We had an opportunity to win the last two games and we didn't get it done. There are things that we can do better." A date vs. league-worst Buffalo is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, note that the Sabres are a poor 16-38 (-7.4 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year, while Nashville is a perfect 5-0 (+5.2 units) when playing with three or more days rest. I do indeed believe that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on NASHVILLE on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports
|
03-21-15 |
NC State +9.5 v. Villanova |
Top |
71-68 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on NC State.
While I won't be so bold as to call for the outright upset, I do think the battle tested Wolfpack are getting little respect from the oddsmakers here and think they'll keep this one a lot more competitive than what we're being led to believe. Of course Villanova is the better all around team, but the postseason is about coming together and working as a cohesive unit at the right time and that's definitely something that NC State is showing right now. The Wolfpack will hardly be intimidated in this spot either, they've already toppled Duke, Louisville and North Carolina this season: "We have to approach every game like it's a Duke or a Carolina," guard Trevor Lacey confirmed. Villanova is at its best when shooting the 3 ball effectively, but NC State has been getting the job done from behind the arc as well of late and I think can match shot for shot today. Note that the Wolfpack are 8-5 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, while Villanova is just 2-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest. Grab as many points as you can with NC STATE.
AAA Sports
|
03-20-15 |
Davidson v. Iowa -2.5 |
Top |
52-83 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Iowa.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.
|
03-19-15 |
Northeastern v. Notre Dame -12 |
Top |
65-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
66 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.
For a number of different reasons I expect the Fighting Irish to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Notre Dame was left out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009 last year and definitely won't be taking anything for granted today. Obviously the Irish come in with plenty of momentum and confidence after winning the ACC Tournament championship. Northeastern would win the CAA championship, but now faces it's toughest opponent of the year. Notre Dame has a long history of failing in the NCAA Tournament, this team is expected to break that trend. Northeastern on the other hand is back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1991 and I think will just be happy to be here. The Huskies have to be feeling pretty satisfied after the way they won their conference tournament as well, after finishing in a four way tie for first place in the CAA during the regular season and was the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, they would then become just the fourth team in CAA history to beat the top two seeds on the way to the championship. This is a definite letdown spot for the mid-major, I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, lay the points with NOTRE DAME.
AAA Sports
|
03-18-15 |
Boise State v. Dayton -3.5 |
Top |
55-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
60 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Dayton.
Dayton plays on its home floor and it's a factor which obviously can't be overlooked today and in my opinion will ultimately prove to be the difference maker. These two 25-8 schools go head to head in the First Four on a team's home floor for the first time since 1987. The Flyers are 16-0 at home this year and have won 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division I: "When we're playing a home game, we have about as good of a home-court advantage as anyone does in college basketball," UD coach Archie Miller assessed earlier in the week. "But I'll also tell you that anyone who is billing this as a home game or a walk-through, I just think they're really underappreciating how good Boise State is. If we were playing a regular-season game at home versus Boise State, you'd be sick to your stomach because you know what you're in for." These two teams are pretty evenly matched on the court, both are smaller overall and each relies on determination, quickness and depth to win. I also don't think that experience can be overlooked though, note that Boise State is 0-6 all time in the tournament, losing in the First Four in 2013 to La Salle 80-71, while Dayton is 17-17 overall, reaching the Sweet 16 last year by beating Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford before losing to Florida. Experience and home court advantage, these two big situational factors are the difference, play on DAYTON.
AAA Sports
|
03-17-15 |
Ole Miss +3 v. BYU |
Top |
94-90 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Mississippi.
While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Ole Miss to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The winner of this game goes on to Jacksonville Florida to take on sixth-seeded Xavier on Thursday. With a spread under 5, obviously the oddsmakers feel these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's definitely the case as each is going to push the pace from the outset. BYU averaged 83.6 points per game, while Ole Miss averaged 72.6. The Runnin Rebels though would connect on 77.8 percent of their free throws, which ranked third in the country and I think will be a crucial factor in the latter stages. Also note that Ole Miss has excelled in this position for bettors all year, 9-2 ATS as the underdog, 3-1 ATS in all neutral court games and 3-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. And note that BYU is just 2-4 ATS in all neutral court games and just 1-3 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest. Play on MISSISSIPPI.
AAA Sports
|
03-17-15 |
George Washington v. Pittsburgh -3.5 |
Top |
60-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Pittsburgh.
Neither of these teams were very good for bettors in the regular season and with a spread under 5, obviously the book makers feel that they're pretty evenly matched. However, for a number of different reasons I expect Pittsburgh to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The winner of this game advances to take on the winner of No. 1 seed Temple and No. 8 Bucknell. George Washington is big and is one of the better rebounding teams in the country and Pitt has had difficulties with schools like that throughout the season, but I think the Panthers depth will prove to be the difference today as the team has five players averaging at least 8.5 points. GW looked great in mid January, but the wheels came off the bus as it would lose eight of its final 13. Ultimately I think the Panthers up-tempo style will be too much for the Colonials to handle and look for them to take care of business in the 'Burgh; play on PITTSBURGH.
AAA Sports
|
03-16-15 |
Arizona Coyotes v. Los Angeles Kings -1.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
For a number of different reasons I believe that the conditions are right for a blowout, making the PUCK LINE the savvy move in tonight's contest. Arizona has been one of the worst in the league all year and comes into this contest having lost six straight on the road. LA goaltender Jonathan Quick is playing at an extremely high level right now, he's 12-3-1 with a 1.78 GAA in his last 16 starts and if history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today is it's already 2-0-1 in the season series. And that's bad news for a Coyotes team which is averaging a NHL-worst 1.65 GPG since the All-Star break, while getting outscored 23-8 during the current road slide; note that Arizona has in fact totaled just three goals during an 0-3-1 skid after Saturday's 4-1 home loss to the Devils. Also note, the Kings have killed off 38 of opponents' last 40 power plays, while the Coyotes are a horrible 4-21 (-15.2 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year. Lay the 1.5 goals for the near pick-em price, play on LA.
AAA Sports
|
03-15-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
97-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* REVENGE-DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Spurs are coming off a heart-breaking 128-125 OT home loss to Cleveland on Thursday, snapping a six-game win streak and I believe will have a letdown here vs. the lowly and undermanned Timberwolves. These teams have played three times this season and the Spurs have taken all three games, both SU and ATS. The triple revenge factor comes into play for sure. The Wolves are coming off a 113-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and despite being down a couple of key players, this is in fact a spot in which Minnesota has performed extremely well in for bettors this year, a fantastic 12-7 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 14-13 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that San Antonio is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing two days of rest and 11-14 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think the conditions are finally right for MINNESOTA to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as I expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points they've been afforded today.
AAA Sports
|
03-15-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic +10.5 |
Top |
123-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a pretty good team and they're coming off one of their most satisfying victories of the entire year (a 128-125 OT victory over the defending champion Spurs in which Kyrie Irving scored 57 points). That fact alone would make this a pretty good spot bet on the Magic as there's no doubt that this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, but there are a couple of other extremely strong situational factors which also come into play here and are the reason behind the 10* top play ranking. Not surprisingly, this is also a double revenge game for the Magic which have lost both games this season, both SU and ATS. In fact, to call this a revenge game is a pretty big understatement as Orlando has lost nine straight SU in this series, while going 0-10 ATS. Clearly the Magic players will be "hungry" to break this slide. And note, not only does this set up as a letdown position for the visitors after the massive win over San Antonio, but it also sets up as a "look ahead" spot, as LeBron James and company will be at Miami on Monday night. Suffice it to say, it's not too hard to imagine the Cavs looking past the lowly Wolves tonight. Three big time situational factors collide in this one, grab as many points as you can with the MAGIC.
AAA Sports
|
03-14-15 |
NY Rangers -1.5 v. Buffalo Sabres |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers.
New York is coming off a 3-1 win at Washington on Wednesday and will go for its seventh-consecutive victory over the Sabres; note that the Blue Shirts have outshot Buffalo 24-8 during the win streak, including 9-2 in this year's two meetings. Buffalo comes in with zero momentum here after being outscored 20-9 on an 0-4-1 road trip which ended in a 4-3 shootout loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Note that the Rangers are 21-8 (+9.8 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season, while Buffalo is a horrible 15-35 (-8.6 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The clear talent discrepancy on the ice absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 goals for the pick-em price in my opinion, play on NEW YORK.
AAA Sports
|
03-14-15 |
Yale v. Harvard -2 |
Top |
51-53 |
Push |
0 |
24 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Harvard.
This is a one-game playoff as both teams finished with identical 11-3 conference records, the winner will advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson have played in three straight Big Dances and I believe their tough defensive play will prove to be the difference today. As we can tell by the spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, they'd split the season series with each team winning on the others court. They say that defense wins championships and I think that will be the case today, Harvard led the Ivy League in scoring defense in giving up just 57.5 PPG; not surprisingly, the Bulldogs game in second in allowing only 60.6 PPG. A tough nose defensive unit, combined with a ton of experience tips the scales in favor of HARVARD today.
AAA Sports
|
03-14-15 |
Purdue v. Wisconsin -9.5 |
Top |
51-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.
I played on Wisconsin yesterday and the Badgers would come up just short for us ATS; suffice it to say, I definitely expect a better performance from the No. 1 seed today and look for it to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Badgers started flat-footed yesterday and I simply don't see that happening twice in a row. With a victory in the conference tournament, Wisconsin will assure itself a No. 1 seed at the Big Dance. Big man Frank Kaminsky started slowly, but would finish with 16 points and 12 boards. Note that Kaminsky has owned the Boilermakers throughout his career as well, averaging 19.7 points on 65.4 percent shooting in helping his team win the last three meetings. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Purdue, with yesterday's 64-59 win over Penn State on Friday, the team has almost assuredly secured its spot in the field of 68. A great situational play in my opinion: Wisconsin's slow start in yesterday's win over Michigan will have the team focused to start and with the pre-tournament jitters now firmly in the rear-view mirror, the Badgers will unquestionably be ready to play from the opening tip; coupled with the fact that the Boilermakers come in satisfied, knowing that if they win or lose, they'll be heading to the big tournament. Play on WISCONSIN.
AAA Sports
|
03-13-15 |
Michigan v. Wisconsin -14 |
Top |
60-71 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.
The top-ranked Badgers play their first game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament and I think will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Badgers can boost their resume for a No. 1 seed at the Big Dance by winning the Conference Tournament and it's this fact which leads me to believe we'll see Wisconsin at its best today. The Badgers come in with plenty of momentum after finishing the regular season with three straight wins, including a 72-48 victory at then-No. 23 Ohio State on Sunday. One player to keep your eyes on today is Frank Kaminsky, who was named the Big Ten player of the year. Kaminsky though is hardly a one many show as Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes will also present significant match-up issues for the Wolverines today. Michigan gave Wisconsin a run for its money on January 24th, the Badgers would gut out the 69-64 OT win, so suffice it to say, I do not foresee a mental letdown today from the No. 1 seed. The Wolverines routed Illinois 73-55 in the conference's opening round, but note that Michigan is a poor 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Wisconsin is already 2-1 ATS this year in all neutral court games and 9-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. I believe that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the BADGERS.
AAA Sports
|
03-12-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers +1 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
128-125 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 9 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Both teams come in hot but I think a focused and motivated LeBron James and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Cavs certainly come in with plenty of momentum after winning four of their last five, Cleveland is averaging 102.9 points on 45.6 percent shooting, while allowing 98.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting. James is averaging 26 points and 7.3 assists; Kyrie Irving is averaging 21.4 points and 5.2 assists, while big man Kevin Love is grabbing 10.2 boards. If Cleveland has had one weakness this season it's clearly been its play on the road, but the Cavs come into this game playing their best ball of the year, they've won 19 of their last 20 games SU when topping 100 points. After a slow start, the defending champs have won six straight and are averaging 101.6 points on 45.7 percent shooting while giving up 97.4 points on 44.4 percent shooting. The usual suspects continue to lead the way, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 15.7 points and 7.5 boards, while guard Tony Paker is averaging 14.7 points and 4.9 assists. Note that Manu Ginobili is questionable with an illness in this one. This play however is based mainly on strong ATS trends as note that the Cavs are 15-13 ATS this season in all non-conference games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. good offensive teams that average 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, note that San Antonio is just 11-12 ATS in non-conference contests this season and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to CLEVELAND as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
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03-11-15 |
Washington +7.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
69-71 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 30 m |
Show
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This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Washington.
I think this is a few too many points to be giving up here as I believe Washington will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Cardinal backed their way into the postseason by losing their final three of the campaign, most recently getting destroyed by 22 against Arizona. Washington on the other hand comes in with nothing to lose and plenty of momentum and confidence after an upset victory against then-No. 13 Utah in its finale (trust me, I know the Huskies had lost ten of their previous 11, but recent performance is a major factor in my selection process for this particular game). This is also a double revenge scenario for Washington which lost by eight points in OT on January 4th to Stanford and by ten points in regulation 18 days later. One player to keep your eyes on today for the Huskies is Nigel Williams-Goss who had 28 points in the regular-season finale vs. Utah, he'll be matched up against Stanford's Chasson Randle, who averaged 19.1 points in the regular season. The postseason is all about upsets, I think the HUSKIES have enough situational and motivational factors working in their favor today to warrant a play of this size.
AAA Sports
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03-11-15 |
Pittsburgh +3.5 v. NC State |
Top |
70-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 42 m |
Show
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This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh.
These two teams enter the postseason going in opposite directions, NC State would win five of its last six, while Pittsburgh would drop its final three. However, that was then and this is now, the postseason tournaments are here and its a fresh start for everyone and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Wolfpack has been impressive down the stretch, but note that there is some room to read between the lines with Pittsburgh's end of season slide as the Panthers would lose those three games by just a combined 16 points: "We're a better team than what we played this last week," Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon said after the Panthers lost 61-52 Saturday at Florida State. Pittsburgh struggled defensively, but ranks ninth nationally in assists per game. The Wolfpack would get the job done this year with tough defensive play, a strength which helped mask a clear deficiency on the offensive end. Pittsburgh though plays with revenge today after falling 68-50 to NC State back on January 3rd, it was the Panthers worst shooting performance of the year and I believe that fact just adds fuel to the fire. Play on PITTSBURGH.
AAA Sports
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03-10-15 |
Georgia Tech +1 v. Boston College |
Top |
65-66 |
Push |
0 |
19 h 19 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Georgia Tech.
As we can tell by the point-spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched and while I obviously believe that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Georgia Tech plays with revenge here after falling 64-62 to the Eagles on January 25th. Georgia Tech would lose its last four games of the regular season, twice to UNC and once to Louisville, both teams ranked in the top 20. BC earned the 12th seed after beating Wake Forest 79-61 on Saturday and enters the ACC on a three-game win streak. This is the third year in a row that these two cellar dwellers have faced off in the first round of the league tournament, the Eagles won 84-64 two years ago, while Tech prevailed in OT, 73-70, last season. Despite being down a couple of players, Georgia Tech still matches up well with Boston College and from a trend based stand point, this play is very strong as note that the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more and 9-6 ATS when playing the role of underdog. And note that the Eagles have struggled in this spot for bettors, just 2-3 ATS this season when playing on a neutral court. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to GEORGIA TECH as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
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03-09-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Akron -6 |
Top |
52-76 |
Win
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100 |
25 h 38 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Akron.
The 14-15 Northern Illinois Huskies are ready to battle the 18-13 Akron Zips. NIU has won four straight has has five players averaging at least 8.1 points. Akron on the other hand comes in having lost six of its last seven and has four players averaging at least 5.8 points. The postseason is a whole new ball game, I think Akron will be the "hungrier" team here. NIU averages 65.5 points per game and is giving up 66.3, while Akron averages 68.1 points and allows 64.5. These two teams are pretty evenly matched, but the Zips play with revenge after dropping the regular season meeting with the Huskies, both SU and ATS; I also don't think that home court advantage can be overlooked, note that Akron is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd, also 6-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the spread should be a little larger, play on AKRON.
AAA Sports
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03-09-15 |
Ball State +11 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
75-88 |
Loss |
-100 |
25 h 37 m |
Show
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This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Ball State.
While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for Ball State to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it here. The Green Falcons are 19-11 overall, including 11-7 in league action. Bowling Green though backed its way into the Tournament by losing four of its last six. The Cardinals are just 7-22 overall and 2-16 in MAC play, but I think have a big opportunity to take advantage of a somewhat distracted Bowling Green side; note that the team failed to get the triple-bye to the semi-finals and did not in fact get a bye whatsoever. Clearly this is a major disappointment for the team. Bowling Green now has to play five games in six days if it's going to win this tournament. Ball State on the other hand has nothing to lose, can play without any pressure whatsoever and also comes in having the double revenge factor working in its favor after dropping both regular season meetings. Also note that Bowling Green is likely to be without the services of big man Richaun Holmes to injury; if Holmes does play, he'll be far from 100% and pretty ineffective anyways. Ball State can take advantage, it's shown promise of late anyways, it would lose its regular season finale to Northern Illinois in OT, 71-67. To sum it up, I think Bowling Green gets caught looking ahead and BALL STATE takes full advantage.
AAA Sports
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03-07-15 |
Florida +16.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
50-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida.
While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Gators will come in highly motivated today and expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Kentucky is on the verge of its first unbeaten regular season ever, so the pressure is on the home side to deliver the goods. Florida would obviously love nothing more than to play spoiler, there's no question in my mind that the home side is going to get the Gators' best shot today. Kentucky got all it could handle in last month's win in Gainseville; the Wildcats have looked liked World beaters at times and pretty pedestrian in others all year and have clearly over achieved this season. One player to keep your eyes on today is Florida leading scorer Michael Frazier, who is averaging 13.2 PPG. There's a lot of pressure on the home side today, while conversely, the visitors have nothing to lose. I think this definitely works in our favor. Note that Florida is 8-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest and 4-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog. And note that Kentucky is just 8-9 ATS this year as a home favorite of 12 points or more and just 7-9 ATS vs. conference opponents. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
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03-07-15 |
Syracuse +6.5 v. NC State |
Top |
57-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 20 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Syracuse.
When a team has to endure an off-field issue, it can obviously go one of two ways. Will Jim Boeheim's suspension and problems be a distraction for the Orange, or will Syracuse make it a rallying point in its final game of the season? In my opinion, it will be the latter and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Orange to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Syracuse will be looking to play spoiler today, NC State is still fighting for seeding in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments and is coming off a 66-61 win at Clemson on Tuesday. Note though that this is a spot in which the Wolfpack have struggled in all year, a poor 5-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that this is a position in which Syracuse has done well in, 5-4 ATS as an underdog and 3-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE.
AAA Sports
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03-06-15 |
Toronto Raptors -1 v. Charlotte Hornets |
Top |
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors.
In my opinion, this is a great situational play. Toronto has been scuffling of late and embarks on a tough three-game road trip most likely without the services of leading scorer Kyle Lowry. If Lowry doesn't play, it's not anything this incredibly deep team can't compensate for though. In fact, if Lowry does sit, I think it'll be a rallying point for the rest, a definite motivational/psychological factor that we can take advantage of. Lowry has sat the last three contests but is travelling with the team on this trip, with games in OKC and San Antonio upcoming. With consecutive games vs. playoff hopefuls on the horizon, starting this trip off on the "right foot" against the 26-33 Hornets (just 14-16 at home), will be paramount for the visitors today. And it may come as a surprise, but this is a revenge game for Toronto as the Hornet have in fact won five straight over the Raptors overall and seven straight in the series in front of the home town crowd. Charlotte is clinging to the eighth spot in the East and has won three straight, but I think will have a letdown here, as note this is a spot in which the Hornets have already struggled in for bettors this season, coming into tonight's game having gone a poor 3-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest, just 3-4 ATS after three or more consecutive victories and only 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. The Raptors need to rally here, they've lost six of their last seven, most recently a 120-112 setback to Cleveland on Wednesday, Toronto coming up just short after rallying from a 19-point second half deficit to take the lead at one point. With or without Lowry, I think the RAPTORS come to play today and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports
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