Jim Feist Basketball Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-06-10 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz -9.5 | Top | 85-94 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
I'm looking at this game as a blowout win for the Jazz on Monday. The Jazz had their seven game winning streak snapped by the Mavericks, 93-81. The SU and ATS loss snapped a seven game cover streak by Utah. But the reason I am looking at this game as a blowout is two fold. First, the Grizzlies are the 21st ranked defensive team in the NBA, allow 103 points per game. And, the Jazz can score points, as they averaged five straight over the century mark before the Dallas loss. Second, the Grizzlies had to play in Denver on Sunday. Denver and Utah are both high altitude cities and to teams visiting from the East it's a tough doubleheader, especially with no rest between. And that's just what we have here tonight. The Grizzlies will be dead tired after playing in the Mile High city last night and then playing in another high altitude city like Salt Lake tonight. The Memphis legs will wither in the second half and the Jazz, which had Sunday off, will pull away for an easy win. I'm taking the Jazz here in what should be a blowout win.
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12-03-10 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 93-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Take: (825) DALLAS MAVERICKS
Reason: Dog of the Month: Mavericks. Dallas Coach Rick Carlisle has always craved a defensive identity for this team, but he needed the right player to set the tone. A few years ago, 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler would have been an obvious candidate, but chronic foot injuries and excessive fouling made it difficult for him to stay on the court. Right about the time he fell under the radar -- the Bobcats dumped him in a money-saving trade with Dallas last summer -- Chandler has been rejuvenated under Carlisle. Healthy for all 17 games, he's been a superb rim protector and, as a bonus, one of the league's most efficient scorers. Dallas has plenty of offensive weapons, as well, with Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki. For the second consecutive game, the Mavericks (14-4) held an opponent below 40 percent shooting from the floor. For the ninth time this season, they held an opponent to fewer than 10 points below its scoring average; the Wolves came in averaging 101.1. They allow 92.2 ppg (third best) and 43% shooting by opponents (second best). Both teams are red hot for this one, but Dallas (5-0 SU/ATS run) is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Play the Mavericks! |
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12-01-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 v. New Jersey Nets | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
Take: (505) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Thunder. No Kevin Durant? No Jeff Green? No problem! Oklahoma City was without those two stars when they went to Boston and won as a +9 dog allowing 84 points. Offense is not a problem for this young group, in the Top 10 in scoring with a winning record both home and away. With all the attention on Durant and Green, Oklahoma City Thunder's point guard Russell Westbrook is in just his third NBA season, but has emerged as a top-five point guard and has been their best player. Westbrook averages of 23.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 2.0 steals. He also has boosted his field-goal percentage from 41.8 percent a year ago to 43.9 percent this season. Despite that impressive defensive effort at Boston, this is still an uptempo team and Oklahoma City is 7-1 with Serge Ibaka in the starting lineup. This team is on a 7-2 ATS run, while the Nets are struggling badly, losing 5 of the last 7 games. New Jersey is in a tough situational handicapping spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights while the Thunder is well rested. Play the Oklahoma City Thunder. |
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11-30-10 | Indiana Pacers -2.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Take: (711) INDIANA PACERS
Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: Pacers. The Indiana Pacers have been a surprise team, playing hard with a winning record. They even have a winning record on the road. The Pacers are on a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS run. This offense is very good, but what's most impressive (and surprising) is the defense, allowing .428% shooting by opponents -- second best in the NBA. The Pacers got their first victory at Staples Center when they beat the Lakers 95-92 in front of a sellout crowd of 18,997 fans. "A great win for us to beat the champions on their court," Pacers coach Jim O'Brien said." Roy Hibbert led the Pacers with 24 points and 12 rebounds and Danny Granger had 18 points. The 7-foot-4 Hibbert is a big reason why they are playing from defense this season. "We're doing it with defense," Pacers swingman Mike Dunleavy said. "The biggest difference between this year and past seasons is that we're stopping people and not relying on our offense to carry us." By contrast, the Kings are playing no defense, as usual, allowing .471% shooting (24th) and allowing 100.4 ppg (17th), while the struggling offense is averaging 94 ppg -- third worst in the NBA. Sacramento is on a 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS run. Play the Pacers! |
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11-29-10 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 197 | Top | 91-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The Houston Rockets grabbed just their fifth win of the season on Sunday with a one-point home win over Oklahoma City, 99-98. It was the club's second win in the last three games after a drought of five losses in a row. The win was also just the Rockets second cover in the last seven games. But what is of particular value to me is their defense, or lack thereof. The Rockets have allowed over 100 points in four of their last six games. The Rockets started the season by allowing 107 or more in their first five games. Meanwhile, Dallas has been an under team this season, going 6-9 Over/Under on the season. This is mainly because they play such good defense, in fact, the Mavs are the third best defensive team in the NBA. Houston is 26th in the NBA in defense. And, while Dallas has not needed to score much to win, they have upped the tempo of late, scoring over 100 points in each of their last three games with all three going OVER. This series has been high scoring of late, with three of the last four meetings going OVER the number. In those three overs, the lowest combines score was 224. I am sticking with the OVER here on Monday, mainly because of the Houston defense. I see Utah easily getting over 100 points, and with a total of 197 (opening number) we only need about 93 out of Houston.
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11-26-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Take: (713) DALLAS MAVERICKS
Reason: 25-Star Big Bad Basketball Bookie Buster: Mavericks. Everyone's impressed with the Spurs' offense this season, but what is flying under the radar is the defense of the Dallas Mavericks, allowing 92 ppg (4th best in the league) and .438% shooting (8th best). Frustrated from their showing the night before against Chicago, the Mavericks out-rebounded Atlanta 40-37 in a big win, as Tyson Chandler |
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11-24-10 | San Antonio Spurs -8 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Take: (713) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Spurs. Some of the old men of the Spurs prefer to have a day off: Well they have a full day off for this one. And hats off to Coach Greg Popovich, a defensive guy who decided the Spurs are deep enough to play an uptempo offensive style. Playing a strong Orlando Magic team, the Spurs beat Orlando 106-97 to run their winning streak to 11 games. The Spurs ran their record to an NBA-leading 12-1 SU, 9-3-1 ATS. The suddenly high-scoring Spurs scorched the league |
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11-23-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 203 | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bulls/Lakers Over the total. A pair of powerful offensive teams meet in LA: The Bulls and sparkplug guard Derrek Rose are 9th in the NBA in scoring (101.5 ppg) while the Lakers are No. 1 (112.5 ppg). Chicago is 6th in the NBA in field goal shooting, the Lakers are 4th. The young Bulls are not afraid to run the court with uptempo teams, scoring 112 on the Knicks and 120 on Golden State. The tall, deep, talented Lakers are just torching opponents, topping 100 points in 13 of 14 games. They just put 117 on the Golden State Warriors. The Lakers featured four players in double figures: They shot 55.7%. And they built enough of a lead for all the starters to rest in the fourth quarter and all but Pau Gasol to play less than 30 minutes. The Lakers scored 29 points in transition, and they imposed their front-line dominance with 56 points in the paint, 17 second-chance points. Look for the young Bulls to run right with the defending champs in an uptempo game. Play the Bulls/Lakers Over the total. |
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11-22-10 | New Orleans Hornets -5.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 95-99 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This one really could be characterized as the Penthouse against the Outhouse! The top dog in the NBA right now, New Orleans 11-1 against the NBA's worst in the Clippers, 1-13. The Hornets rattled off eight straight wins to start the season before losing to Dallas on 11/15. Since the loss, they have now won three straight after Sunday's win at Sacramento, 75-71. Even though the Hornets have now failed to cover three straight, they are still good for bettors with a 8-3-1 mark. But what I like tonight, is that the Hornets will have some new blood. New Orleans traded Peja Stojakavic and Jerryd Bayless to Toronto over the weekend for point guard Jarrett Jack, center David Andersen and guard Marcus Banks. All three are exptected to be in uniform tonight. The short manned Hornets looked flat on Sunday, missing 14 of their first 17 shots and going 6 of 24 in the first quarter. Still, despite the slow start and a season low 32 percent shooting, the Hornets still managed the win. So what can you say about the LA Clippers. This team has talent, and many thought this would be the year they would finally make a move. But the only move is to familiar surroundings, the conference cellar. The Clippers have won just a single game this season, 11/3 at home over Oklahoma City. And, they haven't been very good to bettors, going 5-9 ATS. The Clippers actually have done most of their covering on the road, going 4-3 ATS away from LA, while going 1-6 ATS at home. These clubs have already met once this year in New Orleans and that was an easy win by the Hornets, 101-82. In fact, the Hornets have now covered 14 straight games in this series! With Utah and Portland up next on this Western road trip, the Hornets will need to win these easy games. I'm taking the Hornets here on Monday in what should be an easy win.
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11-19-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics UNDER 201 | Top | 89-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Celtics Under the total. After playing a string of uptempo offensive teams, Oklahoma City comes to Boston to play the defensive-oriented Celtics. These teams have already met and it was a 92-83 Boston win at Oklahoma City, 21 points under the total. Boston allows 45% shooting and a stellar 32% from beyond the arc. The 94.6 ppg they allow is 6th best in the NBA. They come off a win over Washington allowing 83 points and 38% shooting. The Celtics have won three in a row and eight of their past nine. When they met a few weeks ago, Kevin Durant scored 34 points and Westbrook had 16 points and 10 assists to lead Oklahoma City, but Boston was content to let the stars get theirs and shut down everyone else: The Thunder shot .427% in the game. This total is far too high as the Celtics turn up their defense on their home court, as usual: Play the Thunder/Celtics Under the total. |
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11-16-10 | Atlanta Hawks +1 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
Take: (705) ATLANTA HAWKS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have a tall, athletic frontcourt, shooting .493% from the field on offense -- tops in the NBA. They take on a weak Indiana frontcourt which doesn't match up at all with Atlanta's Big 3 of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford. Al Horford had 28 points and 10 rebounds and the Hawks held on to beat the Timberwolves 111-105 on Sunday. The Hawks are a sizzling 4-1 SU on the road while the Pacers are on a 2-3 SU/ATS run. Indiana is soft defensively from long range, too, allowing over 38% shooting from beyond the arc, 7th worst in the NBA. which is a big part of their inconsistent play. The Pacers dropped a 102-99 decision to Houston on Friday, a loss described as "bitter" by coach Jim O'Brien. That came one game after a record-breaking performance in a 144-113 win over Denver on Tuesday. ndiana starting point guard Darren Collison finished the game with five assists. He had no assists in 32 minutes Friday against Houston. ... Pacers center Jeff Foster has yet to play because of a sprained right ankle, which means the talented Atlanta frontcourt will control the glass and the game. Play the Hawks. |
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11-09-10 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 195.5 | Top | 80-107 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Take: over.
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. The NY Knicks are much improved from last season with Amare Stoudemire and Ray Felton leading an offense that is 10th in the NBA. The Knicks are in second place in the Atlantic, trailing Boston. But it's offense carrying the load as there are no defensive stoppers on this young, athletic but small frontcourt, allowing .465% shooting by opponents, 9th worst in the NBA. Their three-point defense has been particularly bad, allowing 37% shooting from long range. The Bucks had a hard time making shots the last game, sinking just 38.6% of their attempts in an 87-81 loss at home to New Orleans. But there's nothing wrong with the offensive talent on this team, led by Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut up front and Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings. Gooden and Bogut have always been strong offensive players, but weak in the low post defensively. New Orleans shot 45% from the field and over 41% from long range. Milwaukee has played a string of strong defensive teams in the Hornets (twice), Celtics, Blazers and Bobcats, but they get a chance to bust out offensively against the small, uptempo Knicks. Play the NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. |
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11-04-10 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 195.5 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Knicks/Bulls Over. The NY Knicks have an uptempo offense and they are improved this season with Amare Stoudemire teamed with guard Raymond Felton. They are averaging 98 ppg and allowing 99 ppg. That uptempo offense is well rested for this game after that odd postponed game on Monday. They take on a Chicago team that is 12th in the NBA in offense averaging 102 ppg and fourth in field goal shooting (48%) behind Luol Deng and sparkplug guard Derrick Rose, who is off to a great start. Rose was averaging 33.5 points in Chicago's first two contests. Deng scored a career-high 40 points to lead the Chicago Bulls to a 110-98 victory over Portland on Monday night. Chicago has scored 101 and 110 points in two games and is 2-1 over the total. This has all the makings as an uptempo game from start to finish with these two young point guards putting on a show. Play the NY Knicks/Bulls Over the Total. |
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11-02-10 | Portland Trail Blazers +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 90-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
Take: (711) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam: Blazers. The Blazers are deep and talented, starting 3-0 for the first time since 1999-2000. They take on a soft Milwaukee frontcourt and the way to attack the Bucks is being physical up front. Well the Blazers can do that with 6-11 LaMarcus Aldridge (15.7 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and 6-11 center Marcus Camby (8.7 ppg, 9.7 rpg). They are in the Top 5 in the NBA in points allowed and take on a Bucks team that shoots 40% as a team, worst in the league. The Blazers are a terrific rebounding team, while the soft, smaller Bucks and are 20th in the league in rebounding. Milwaukee has Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut up front who are focused on scoring rather than defense and rebounding. How bad? How soft? The Milwaukee Bucks were outhustled and outrebounded by a large margin Friday night in a 96-85 loss to the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves had an astonishing total of 62 rebounds, including 20 on the offensive end, while the Bucks pulled down 39 rebounds. Play the Blazers. |
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11-01-10 | Toronto Raptors v. Sacramento Kings -4 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The Sacramento Kings opened the season with three straight road games and came away with a nice 2-1 record both SU and ATS. And, if the first three games are any indication, the Kings games are going to be high scoring. In their first three games they totaled 233, 206 and 211. And there is optimism for the Kings this year with reigning Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans and now rookie DeMarcus Cousins highlighting this club. Cousins, the fifth overall pick in this year's draft, had a double-double in their 107-104 win at Cleveland Saturday. Meanwhile, Toronto begins the post-Bosh season with a 1-1 record after two games. While Sacramento now enjoys four straight home games, the Raptors will have to endure eight of their first 10 games of November on the road. The Kings have lots of confidence as they open at home and I like that a lot. I'm taking the Kings here on Monday as I believe their young players just have too much skill for this depleted Toronto club.
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10-29-10 | Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets +1.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Take: (718) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Reason: October Game of the Month: New Orleans. Second straight home game for New Orleans rookie coach Monty Williams, and they looked good in the opener, a 95-91 win over Milwaukee. Most impressive was the defense, allowing 42.9% shooting. And they needed that defense as the offense had a bad night shooting, but that's not surprising in Game 1. The Hornets have plenty of offensive talent with Chris Paul running the show and a healthy David West, Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor up front, with Peja Stojakovic a role player off the bench. The defense had 12 forced turnovers (including four steals, all by Ariza). In addition to Paul and West, the Hornets also got a solid first game from the new starting shooting guard, Marco Belinelli, who added 18 points. And the bench chipped in 26 points and 13 rebounds, the most prominent being Jason Smith's eight and four. They won because these Hornets are longer, faster and more athletic, and those qualities will remain in play. They're deeper -- all seven non-starters played, and six of them played at least seven minutes. This is a long road trip for Denver as they make a difficult back-to-back road trip to New Orleans and Houston, making this an excellent spot for the motivated, healthy and deep home team. Play the Hornets. |
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10-28-10 | Phoenix Suns +6 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 110-94 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
Take: (503) PHOENIX SUNS
Reason: 25-Star NBA Situational Slam Dunk: Suns. An excellent situational spot for the visitors. Phoenix is rested, having played on Tuesday to open the season, while Utah had to play last night in the thin mountain air at Denver. The Suns lost by a wide margin in the opener, but that doesn't tell the real story. The Suns were leading 91-88 with 5:44 to go, then Phoenix went 0 for 6 from the field with four turnovers for the remainder of the game. They were playing a much taller Portland team and the Suns are not a great rebounding team. They take on a smaller Utah team that lost Carlos Boozer, a rugged inside rebounding force. There is plenty of offensive firepower, especially from long range, for Phoenix to keep this real close. A straight up win wouldn't shock, either, with the Jazz in the second of a back to back spot. Play the Suns. |
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10-26-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Heat/Celtics Under the total. Both coaches in this one are very good at teaching defense and demanding it. It's Game 1 of the season, so you have to believe defense will be ahead of the offense for both teams. The Celtics have won 2 of the last 3 Eastern crowns and got better for this season, essentially swapping out Rasheed Wallace for Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. Both are asked to be role players off the bench, a perfect situation given their age. As impressive as Miami looks on paper, they are still a relatively short team and Boston has a big edge in the frontcourt with their defense and rebounding. Plus, the loss of 6th man Mike Miller is significan for the Heat offense, as he won't be around until January. Boston plays monster defense, especially at home, and both teams should bring their A-gam defensively as this will have a playoff-type atmosphere on national TV. Play the Heat/Celtics Under the total. |
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06-17-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 187 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA Finals Game of the Year: Celtics/Lakers Under the total in Game 7. It has been a defensive series all the way, at 5-1 under the total. And many of these games haven't even been close to the total, with the losing team scoring 67, 86, 89, 84, 94 and 89 points. The Celtics are a veteran team that won a title with defense in 2008 and that has led the way in the 2010 playoffs. Since the start of Round 2, Boston is on a 12-6-1 run under the total. The Lakers had scored over 100 points in 11 straight playoff games until the Celtics beat them in Game 2, 103-94. The Lakers haven't come close to topping 100 since. The Lakers turned it up defensively the last game, dominating the paint and holding the Celtics to 67 points and 33% shooting. And now, with a Game 7, EVERYTHING is on the line, so expect both teams to bring their best defensive effort. I expect a slow, even cautious defensive game with so much at stake and the whole world watching. Play the Celtics/Lakers Game 7 Under the total. |
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05-27-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year: Suns/LA Lakers Over the total in Game 5. The Lakers are on a 12-3-1 run over the total, and 7-0-1 over the total the last eight games against uptempo Utah and Phoenix. The last game the Phoenix reserves outscored the Laker reserves, 54-20, in the Suns' 115-106 victory on Tuesday night. The main problem is defense: Said Lakers Coach Phil Jackson: "We shot 49%, didn't we? That's pretty good. Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn't say we're struggling against the zone. I think we're struggling at the defensive end. That's where I see it." Kobe Bryant was even more to the point: "We lost the game because our defense sucked." Phoenix has found a flaw, attacking the LA bench, which is no surprise as it has been a weakness all season. On offense, the Lakers have a big size advantage, with 7-foot Andruw Bynum, 7-foot Paul Gasol and 6-10 Lamar Odom. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. But their defense has been suspect, as the Lakers shot 58% and 56% in Games 1 and 2, scoring 124 and 128 points on this floor, 48.3% and 49.5% the last two. The last 18 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 13-5 over the total. Play the Suns/Lakers Game 5 Over the total. |
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05-26-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 186.5 | Top | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Game 5 Under the total. Game 5s of any series have so much at stake, as does this one. That means intense defense from both sides. For this game, the Magic -- the top ranked defense in the NBA during the regular season in field goal shooting percentage allowed -- must win or they go home. They really picked up the defense in Game 4 to stay alive, disrupting Boston all night. This has been a defensive series, at 4-0 or 3-0-1 under the total. Boston matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 on this floor, and only 71 points in Game 3. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and has scored 88, 92, 71 and 96 points in the four games (the last one in OT). The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's poor overall play, with Kevin Garnett on him. Doc Rivers said, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-23-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Take: (511) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Reason: NBA High Roller: LA Lakers in Game 3. LA is now 5-1 against Phoenix this season, using two important factors to dominate the Suns. The size advantage is obvious. Phoenix is a small, finesse team and the Lakers have a huge edge under the glass with 7-foot Andruw Bynum, 7-foot Paul Gasol and 6-10 Lamar Odom. Another overlooked factor is three-point shootin defense: While the Suns love to bomb away from long range, the Lakers are No. 1 in the NBA at defending the three pointer. In Game 1, the Lakers beat the Suns on the boards (42-34) and held Phoenix to just 22% from long range (5 of 22). In Game 2, LA shot .577% and had a +5 edge on the glass. "We can't slow them down," Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry said. "I thought we played well offensively, but every time we tried to make an adjustment to slow them down offensively, they would go somewhere else. There's a good reason they're the world champs." The Lakers are averaging 126 points a game and shooting 57.8% in the series, and Kobe Bryant is averaging 30.5 points, nine assists and five rebounds. They are 41-1 when winning the first two games of a best-of-seven series. The Lakers are focused and can name the score against the overmatched home team. Play the Lakers in Game 3. |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Under the total. Boston is up 2-0 and matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and now frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 -- both on the road. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and holding them to 88 and 92 points in the two games. The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's 4-for-16 shooting slump. Doc Rivers said this week, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-19-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
Take: (508) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Reason: NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year: LA Lakers in Game 2. LA is now 4-1 against Phoenix this season, using two important factors to dominate the Suns. The size advantage is obvious. Phoenix is a small, finesse team and the Lakers have a huge edge under the glass with 7-foot Andruw Bynum, 7-foot Paul Gasol and 6-10 Lamar Odom. Another overlooked factor is three-point shooting defense: While the Suns love to bomb away from long range, the Lakers are No. 1 in the NBA at defending the three pointer. In Game 1, the Lakers beat the Suns on the boards (42-34) and held Phoenix to just 22% from long range (5 of 22). Pau Gasol had 21 points for the top-seeded Lakers, who won their seventh straight playoff game, highlighted by Kobe Bryant's 21-point third quarter. Los Angeles committed just nine turnovers in Game 1 -- its third straight single-digit turnover game. Bryant would go on to a 40-point performance in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, a 128-107 victory. Odom had 19 points and a career-playoff-high 19 rebounds coming off the bench! The Lakers are focused and can name the score against the overmatched visitors. Play the Lakers in Game 2. |
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05-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Game 1 Suns/Lakers Over the total. The last 14 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 9-5 over the total. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. Richardson is averaging 21.9 points and shooting 51% in the playoffs. The Lakers have no problem going uptempo with anyone, and there's no doubt Phoenix will try and push the pace. The Lakers are on an 8-3-1 run over the total, and 3-0-1 over the total the last four games against uptempo Utah. The Suns will get plenty of production from the ageless Steve Nash (36 years old, averaging 17.8 points and nine assists in the playoffs) and the effervescent Amare Stoudemire, but the Suns are a 31-4 when guard Jason Richardson scores 20 or more points, including their victories in a Western Conference semifinals sweep of San Antonio. Look for a wide open Game 1, Play the Suns/Lakers Over the total. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 30-Star NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. Orlando has turned up the defense in the postseason, on a 5-2 run under the total. Actually, they've been a terrific defensive team all season, ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, allowing .438% shooting. They take on a Boston team that won a championship in 2008 with great defense and is back playing it again because Kevin Garnett is healthy. Boston just threw a blanket on the Cavaliers in their 6-game upset, on a 3-2 run under the total. Outside of the Game 3 debacle, the Celtics held the Cavs to 86, 87, 88 and 85 points the last four games. I wonder how in sync the Boston offense will be after that physical, grueling series with Cleveland. And I wonder how in sync the Orlando offense will be, not only facing a fired up Boston defense, but the fact that they haven't played a game in 6 days. When you examine the regular season meetings between these teams, you see nothing but MONSTER defensive efforts: 83-78, 86-77 and 96-94...and those were just regular season games, so much more is at stake here. Orlando is the second worst free throw shooting team in the NBA, so look for a lower scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate. Play the Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. |
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05-10-10 | Orlando Magic -6 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 98-84 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
The Beast of the East isn't the Cavs or Celtics, nope, it's the Orlando Magic. The Magic look to be the team to beat right now in the playoffs. They have not lost a playoff game and in fact have strung together 13 straight wins while covering 12 of those games. The only game they didn't cover was only by a 1/2 point! And this series against Atlanta has been a laugher. The Magic have won by 43, 14 and 30! The 30 point home loss was the worst in Hawks home playoff history. "On paper, they're a very talented team," Orlando's Matt Barnes said after an afternoon practice at Philips Arena. "We just match up really well against them. We can do things to neutralize their talent." I will be making my biggest play of the playoffs in this game on Orlando. Why? Because the Hawks look like a beaten team. They haven't been in any of the games and they look beat before the initial tipoff. The Magic know they can whip these guys and with a win here in game four will have a nice layoff while Boston and Cleveland duke it out in the other semifinal. The attitude a team takes going in is a big part of how they will perform and this is one Atlanta team that knows it is done. You hear it all the time, "we are still playing for pride," but this Hawks team has an eye on the off-season and the Magic know it. I'll be taking Orlando here as my NBA Playoff Game of the Year!
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05-05-10 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
Take: (713) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: High Roller: Spurs in Game 2. San Antonio does three things very well: defense, rebounding and three point shooting. None worked in Game 1, which is unusual, allowing 51% shooting to Phoenix. San Antonio missed five 3-pointers in the final four minutes and wound up 4 of 19 from long range. San Antonio is 12th in the NBA in field goal shooting percentage defense, and 8th in points allowed, so you will see a far better defensive effort in this one. By contrast, Phoenix is 26th in the league in points allowed, and we know defense advances in the playoffs more often than offense. The Spurs fell in a 1-0 hole for the second series in a row, though they bounced back against No. 2 seed Dallas winning 3 in a row after the opener. The Spurs are 20-10 in playoff games against Phoenix in the Tim Duncan era. Look for a bounce back spot by the talented and experienced visitors. Play the Spurs. |
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05-04-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Lakers Under. Lost in the shuffle of the LA comeback in Game 1 was the Lakers' defense, holding uptempo Utah to 44% shooting. The Lakers were in command of Game 1 as their frontcourt had a +5 rebounding edge, as Pau Gasol had 25 points and 12 rebounds while blocking five shots. This is a tough situational spot for the Jazz, who had to finish up a series against the Denver Nuggets, then play Game 1 less than two days later on the road and now Game 2 -- so that's 3 games in 6 nights of intense aaction. It's going to be difficult on their offense with tired legs, especially playing 2 straight on the road. LA has put its game face on the last three games, all wins, ripping the Thunder on this court in Game 5 and winning at Oklahoma City as a dog. These teams have played 5 times this season and the under is 4-1. With so much at stake, look for both teams to play better defense. Play the Jazz/LA Lakers Under the total in Game 2. |
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05-03-10 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 | Top | 104-86 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Take: (706) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS Reason: Monster Motivator Game of the Year: Cavaliers in Game 2. Boston's game plan is to foul the Cavaliers. They want to attack on defense, but it's coming at a cost, putting the Cavs at the line. "I told Glen Davis, 'I don't care if you foul out in the first half. I don't care, but you have to be an energy guy," Doc Rivers said. Cleveland seemed to sense the Celtics' hesitance in the second half and preyed on it. LeBron James scored 18 of his game-high 35 points after the break, and Mo Williams scored 16 of his 20 points in the third quarter. The Cavaliers outscored the Celtics, 22-15, in the fourth, making another Boston lead disappear as they had three times during the regular season. The Celtics allowed 48% shooting and don't match up well with the Cavs at all, especially on the road. Andreson Varejao gave the Celtics headaches during the regular season with his hustle, averaging 13.3 points and 9 rebounds in three games and Kendrick Perkins got a bloddy lip guarding Shaquille O'Neal. Cleveland won't get off to a cold start, either, and will have little trouble in this one. Play the Cavaliers in Game 2.
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05-02-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
Take: (708) LOS ANGELES LAKERS Reason: High Roller: LA Lakers in Game 1. A tough spot for the Jazz, who had to finish up a series against the uptempo Denver Nuggets, and now play Game 1 less than two days later on the road. LA put its game face on the last two games, ripping the Thunder on this court in Game 5 and winning at Oklahoma City the last game as a dog. The Lakers rid themselves of the Thunder, finally, thanks to Paul Gasol and a healthy-looking Kobe Bryant, who had 32 points, seven rebounds and three assists. And his defense was huge late in the series. Bryant's effort in the third quarter
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04-30-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -4.5 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Reason: NBA High Roller Powerhouse: Utah.
A clinch party? Or does Denver stay alive? The Nuggets have been a poor road team in the second half of the season and got beat badly here in Games 3 and 4, losing by 12 and 11. Denver doesn't play much defense, as we've seen in this series, under interim coach Adrian Dantley, giving up 117, 105, 114 and 106 points the last four games. Utah is shooting nearly 51 percent from the field in the series, with only two players who are drawing regular minutes under 50 percent |
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04-29-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
Take: (548) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: 1st Round Game of the Year: Spurs. After winning 3 in a row, San Antonio is off a bad game on the road, losing at Dallas. It was a must win game for the Mavs and they were on fire while the Spurs had a bad offensive game, shooting 35%. But the far better defensive team in this series has been San Antonio, which is no surprise. Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich are not nervous, with 4 NBA title rings apiece. They have turned on the defense in the postseason, as usual, and are still in command of this series. Dallas scored 88, 89 and 90 points the previous three games. The Spurs got a reminder of the Mavericks' desperation with 1:09 left in the first half Tuesday when Eduardo Najera, spared a suspension by the league for his flagrant foul takedown of Manu Ginobili in Game 4, committed another flagrant foul on Tony Parker, so the Spurs will want to not only close it out but will have a chip on their shouler. Dallas is not a good defensive team, and the Spurs have a ton of offensive weapons both inside and out that will bounce back this game at home. San Antonio has shot 48%, 45% and 48% in each of the last three wins. Play the Spurs. |
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04-27-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -6 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Take: (532) BOSTON CELTICS
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller: Celtics. The Celtics blew a chance to sweep in a frustrating Game 4 loss in Miami. After rallying from as many as 18 points down to take a 6-point lead into the fourth quarter, the Celtics found themselves trying to fight off a scorching Dwyane Wade, who scored 46 points, 30 in the second half. Boston plays super defense at home and was able to contain Wade in the first two games, so he won't do that again. Just as important, the Celtics were very angry with blowing a game they should have won. Ray Allen hadn't missed three free throws in one game all year before missing 2 huge ones late. In fact, he hadn't missed three in one game in more than three years. Kevin Garnett would miss two more free throws after Allen, and Boston went 16 of 27 from the line overall in letting a series clincher that was in their grasp get away. Boston will bring its 'A' game in this one after that embarrassing loss. And they completely dominated the second halves of Games 1 and 2 at home, as Miami packed it in. The Heat got their lone win to avoid getting swept. They looked soft in the first two games and the Celtics have had almost all the matchup edges in this series. Look for a big win by the angry home team. Play the Celtics. |
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04-26-10 | Blazers(Portland) v. Suns(Phoenix) OVER 202 | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
The Portland Trailblazers tied up this series with Phoenix at two games apiece. After looking terrible in the previous two games, the Blazers got an injection of Brandon Roy for game four. Roy, who was expected to miss this series with an injury, came back in game four and gave the Blazers the shot in the arm they desperately needed. "I didn't come back to have one good game," Roy said. "I came back to try to help this team win the series. It's important we get over the emotional high of last game and get ready to play a tough basketball game at Phoenix." This is the pivotal game for Phoenix, as they Suns can ill afford to go down 3-2 and return to Portland for a game six. For some reason, the Suns abandoned their aggressive, fast paced style that have garnered them two blowout wins in games two and three. The Suns only hope here is to return to that style of play. Suns coach Alvin Gentry probably put it best after the loss. "I don't understand it. I really don't," he said. "That's the one thing we have to get away from. I keep telling everyone and I'll say it again: If you walk it up and they (Portland) get in a half-court situation I think their defense is as good as anybody's in the NBA." Expect to see Steve Nash push the tempo in this game and get the Blazers out of that half court defense. If that happens, then fully expect this game to go OVER the total on Monday.
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04-25-10 | Celtics(Boston) v. Heat(Miami) | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
The Boston Celtics look to end the Miami Heat season here on Sunday. And, quite possibly Dwayne Wade's career in Miami. Wade can become a free agent on July 1st, so we might be seeing Wades last game in a Heat uniform on Sunday. Wade finished game three sitting on the bench with leg cramps, something he hopes won't reoccur here in game four. I'm making my biggest play of the first round of playoffs here on the Celtics on Sunday. The Celtics have just owned the Heat, going 6-0 SU this season and 14-1 since 2007. The Celtics are also 5-0-1 ATS this season against the Heat and 12-2-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Simply put, some teams just have the number of certain opponents and that's just what I find here on Sunday. The Celtics need only win the game, something they have done 93% of the time since 2007. I also have to wonder about the late game health of Wade, who might have the leg cramps again here on Sunday. I'm sticking with the Celtics domination of the Heat and making my biggest play so far this post season on Boston!!
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04-24-10 | Phoenix Suns -1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 87-96 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
Take: (509) PHOENIX SUNS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Suns. In the opener, Phoenix shot 41% at home and still was in the game right until the end, then they shook off that bad shooting night and torched the Blazers in Game 2, 119-90 and again in Game 3, 108-89. The Suns will go uptempo the rest of the series, as Portland has depth problems because of an injury-plagued season. Portland lost centers Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla in the first half of the year to season ending injuries, then lost their top scorer in All-Star Brandon Roy on the even of the playoffs. That's a lot of talent on the shelf! Grant Hill and Jason Richardson run the break with Steve Nash for the Suns, the top scoring team in the league, while Jared Dudley is fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage in the regular season (46 percent). Phoenix shot 53% in Game 3 and was sizzling from long range, 13 of 28 from three point land. And the home team was dismal from the free throw line, making just 16-of-28 attempts. The visitors have too many weapons against the ailing host. Play the Suns. |
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. Dallas has plenty of strong offensive options, but this team is no defensive dynamo. That was a problem in Game 2 as San Antonio shot 48% while grabbing 51 rebounds (16 offensive). Even in losing Game 1, San Antonio shot 50%. The Spurs also have a ton of offensive options, with Tim Duncan up front, Tony Parker in the backcourt and Manu Ginobili from everywhere. San Antonio is not the dominant defensive team they used to be when winning championships, as age has crept up on them. And Dirk Nowitzki has tallied 24 and 36 points in two games. If you need free throws late in the game, Dallas is a lock, tops in the NBA from the free throw line, with Dirk making 88 in a row before missing one the last game. The Spurs are averaging 97.5 ppg in the playoffs and the over is 7-1 their last 8 home games. I see an offensive show, play the Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. |
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04-22-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
Take: (733) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Reason: 1st Round High Roller Game of the Year: Cavaliers. The Cavs have dominated this first round series, winning by 13 and 10 points, which is not a surprise as it's the top seed against the No. 8 seed. Chicago is a below .500 team on the season, counting their 0-2 playoff hole. Chicago is patting itself on the back for "hanging" with Cleveland for 3 quarters the last game, until the Cavs outscored them 35-25 in the final quarter. Coach Vinny Del Negro said, "We played well enough to steal a game." But a closer look shows the Cavaliers shot 56% and won by double digits despite just 5 offensive rebounds. And in Game 1 the Cavs dominated the glass by a 50-38 count. Chicago has had no answer for LeBron James in the series (and won't), while the Cavs have that incredible frontcourt with Shaq, Antawn Jamison and the Big Z. The Cavaliers are shooting an impressive 51 percent from the field in these Eastern Conference quarterfinals and an an average margin of victory of 11 1/2 points. "To be honest, we're happy," Luol Deng said. "We're going back home. The way we played was encouraging." They won't be after this double digit Cleveland win. Play the Cavaliers! |
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04-21-10 | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Take: (731) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Spurs. Gregg Popovich is no dummy, he of the 4 NBA title rings along with Tim Duncan. The Spurs slowed Dirk Nowitzki in the first round last year by swarming him with two and sometimes three defenders. They didn't do it in Game 1 until late and Big Dirk was sensational, hitting almost everything. Look for a change in strategy this game by San Antonio, a wrinkle to throw at Dallas. "We didn't play focused enough," Duncan said. "We just weren't there all night." They were outrebounded by eight and gave up 13 offensive rebounds. They had 17 turnovers, leading to 20 Dallas points. They also took just 14 free throws. The Spurs are considered an old team, but the Mavericks are older, both their starting five (32.6 years to 31.2) and their overall roster (30.3 to 27.8). Look for San Antonio to get to the line more and note that they shot 50% against an average Dallas defense. The Spurs are outstanding at making adjustments and have more than enough talent and defense to hang within this number. Play the Spurs. |
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04-20-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Atlanta Hawks -7.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Take: (722) ATLANTA HAWKS
Reason: NBA High Roller: Atlanta Hawks. Before this series started one Milwaukee player said, "Their length is unbelievable." He was talking about the Atlanta frontcourt, which is long and athletic, the exact opposite of the Bucks, who are without Andruw Bogut. Milwaukee has to go with 37-year old Kurt Thomas at center, 6-8 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (6 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Primoz Brezec, meaning this frontcourt is a problem as far as matchups. That was evident in Game 1, as the Hawks had a 40-35 rebound edge, along with a 17-point first quarter lead. The Bucks can't do anything about the Atlanta height of 6-7 Joe Johnson (21.3 ppg), 24-year old 6-9 Josh Smith (15.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), 23-year old 6-10 Al Horford (14 ppg, 9.7 rpg) and 6-9 23-year old Marvin Williams (10 ppg). They have been hot the last month, on a 10-5 SU/ATS run and have home court, where they play their best basketball. The Hawks had mismatches all over the court in Game 1, taking advantage of the small and depleted Bucks and led 62-40 at the half. The Bucks are forced to be one-dimensional, with guard Brandon Jennings taking all the shots. This will be another one-sided rout. Play the Hawks! |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker definitely has adjusted the total here in game two. I thought the total for game one was way off and I gave out the OVER as one of my 20* Hi Roller plays, an easy winner. They have adjusted a bit here, pushing the total up about 3-4 points, but I'm still sticking with the OVER. In fact, I'm coming right back with another of my 20* Hi Roller totals on this contest. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 8-0 over the total their last 8 meetings in Denver, and 10-1 over the total their last 11 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218 and 239 in Saturday's contest. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total again and don't worry about the line adjustment.
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04-18-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns -8 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
Take: (716) PHOENIX SUNS
Reason: Western Conference 1st Round Game of the Year: Suns. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). The Suns are 23-6 since the break and on a 24-6 SU, 25-5 ATS run! Phoenix is very strong at home, and they catch a break as the Blazers are a banged up team. Portland lost 7-foot centers Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla early in the season (out for the year) and now All-Star guard Brandon Roy has a tear in his knee and is out of the playoffs. Roy is the Blazers' leading scorer with 21.5 points per game. Thirteen different Blazers have missed a combined 305 games because of injuries this season, second in the league only to the Warriors and the most of any playoff-bound team. Portland will try and slow the pace down, but they have lost too much talent on offense and defense. The uptempo team rolls at home. Play the Suns. |
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04-17-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 209 | Top | 113-126 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 7-0 over the total their last 7 meetings in Denver, and 9-1 over the total their last 10 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. |
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04-13-10 | Utah Jazz -7.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
Take: (703) UTAH JAZZ
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Game of the Year: Jazz. It's not often an NBA team gets three full days off before a game, especially this late in the year, but that's the case with Utah. There is plenty to play for, too. The Jazz might have gotten the opening they need to take the Northwest Division title over Denver with the Nuggets' 104-85 loss at home to San Antonio on Saturday. If the Jazz win their two remaining games at Golden State and home against Phoenix while Denver drops one of its last two games, the Jazz would win the division over Denver. If the Jazz and Nuggets both finish 2-0, Denver would claim the division after winning the season series tiebreaker 3-1 over the Jazz. In addition, the Jazz are closer to being at full strength for their remaining two regular-season games as both Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur took part in practice. Okur went through the full practice while Kirilenko, who has missed 13 of the past 15 games with a strained left calf, did all the running and shooting drills before sitting out 5-on-5 play at the end. "We've been waiting for them to get back and healthy," Deron Williams said. Kirilenko's return to the starting lineup in January coincided with the Jazz's second-half resurgence. Golden State only has one day of rest and brings the worst defense in the NBA into this one. They don't match up well with the Jazz, at 0-2 SU/ATS the last two meetings, losing by 11 and 24 points. Play the Jazz. |
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04-11-10 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -9 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Phoenix still in a dog fight in the wild, wild west as they sit right behind Dallas, Denver and Utah as all four are bunched up for 2nd through fifth. The Suns are playing well, winning eight of their last 10 games. With just three games left, the Suns have to win over a team like Houston since they have Denver and Utah still to go on the schedule. That makes today's game even more meaningful since it's a win they can pickup against a team that has nothing left to play for. And, the Suns have had great success against the Rockets, winning and covering all three games this season. In fact, they are 14-3 ATS the last 17 meetings. The Rockets haven't done well recently as dogs of 8 1/2 to 9 points, going 0-5 ATS their last five times this year. And really, they haven't been close games either as Houston lost by 18 at OKC, 23 at Utah, 25 at Cleveland and 15 at Orlando. The Suns need today's game and I fully expect a blowout effort here in this spot. Take the Suns.
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04-10-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 190.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. Both teams will bring their 'A' game intensity on defense, as they are in a race for playoff seeding in the East. And these defenses have talent. The Bucks have been a defensive revelation the second half of the season, on a 22-11-1 run under the total. They just hels the Bulls to 74 points in a game with playoff-type intensity, and lost 87-86 to Charlotte in another game that sailed under. Milwaukee is deadlocked with Miami for the No 5 playoff slot. They like to slow the pace down, and that's fine with the aging Celtics, as they prefer playing a slow, defensive-oriented tempo. They've struggled all season against athletic, uptempo teams, too. The Celtics are tied with Atlanta for playoff seeding, so they will bring their best defensive effort here and be thankful to slow the pace down. The Celtics have played a whole string of uptempo teams of late, but the last time they played a defensive-oriented squad, it was a 94-73 loss to San Antonio, going under the total by 25 points! This has all the makings of a slow-paced, defensive battle between two playoff teams. Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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04-09-10 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
Take: (725) DALLAS MAVERICKS
Reason: NBA Game of the Year: Mavericks. Oddsmakers have caught up with Portland, on a 1-2 ATS run. That included a bad loss to Denver, the only good team they've played of late. In fact, their hot run the last month has come mainly against a string of weak teams. Three of the Blazers' final four games are against playoff teams. When these teams met last month Portland won at home over Dallas, but the Blazers were working on 3 full days of rest while the Mavericks were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Now Dallas is very rested, playing just one game (a blowout win over Memphis) over the last 6 days. Dallas is hungry, too, tied with 4 other teams for the all-important No. 2 slot in the West. This is very deep, talented Mavericks squad, made much better by the midseason trade, and they are catching points here. Some bad news for Portland is injuries. They lost two of their centers early in the season, and now have banged up starters LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. Plus center Marcus Camby, whom they were forced to trade for to fill the void in the middle, tweaked his hamstring two nights ago against the Clippers and left the game. And that defense allowed the clang, clang, clang Clippers to shoot over 49%. A great spot for the motivated, talented visitors. Play the Mavericks. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Lakers/Nuggets Under the total.
The Lakers are a very good defensive team, despite all the flashy offensive stars, 9th in the NBA in points allowed and 5th in field goal shooting defense. They have been an under the total team the second half of the season, and currently are on a 7-3 run under. The Lakers have lost three of their last four games with the bench play just awful: In those three loses, their bench has been outscored 110-38. Center Andruw Bynum has sat out eight games because of a strained Achilles' tendon and might not play again in regular season. So if Phil Jackson wants to rest the starters any, they aren't getting any offense from the pine. The reserves scored only four points in an ugly loss to San Antonio; The reserves were outscored 42-12 by the New Orleans Hornets' reserves and 48-22 by the Atlanta Hawks' reserves. They run into a Denver team that is playing tough defense, right in the thick of the West's playoff seedings race. Denver has held three of the last five opponents to 96 points or less, though the offense hasn't been sharp because Denver forward Kenyon Martin (knee) is still out. Denver is on an 8-2 run under the total. With the defending champs in town, look for plenty of defense by the home team (when they met 5 weeks ago it was a 95-89 game, 25 points under the total. Play the Lakers/Nuggets Under the total. |
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04-06-10 | San Antonio Spurs -6 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
Take: (667) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Reason: High Roller: Spurs. Motivation is such a key handicapping component coming down the stretch. Here you have a classic last season game with a fired-up team (San Antonio) jockeying for playoff positioning with the Thunder and Blazers, against a Sacramento team just playing out the string. The Kings have lost 7 in a row by 17, 14, 8, 7, 7, 9 and 11 points. The offense is really struggling, unable to hit 100 points in any of those games and they face a dynamite San Antonio defense. Manu Ginobili scored 32 points, including 17 in the fourth quarter, as the Spurs whipped the Lakers 100-81 as a dog. Richard Jefferson added 14 points and Tim Duncan had 11 rebounds for the Spurs, who won their third straight and 15th of 20. That's part of a 5-1 SU/ATS run for the Spurs, winning twice as a dog. In the past eight days, the Spurs (47-29) have claimed wins over the Lakers, Cleveland, Orlando and Boston. After wiping out Ron Artest, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant, topping the disinterested Kings will be a breeze. Play the Spurs. |
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04-04-10 | San Antonio Spurs +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 100-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The San Antonio Spurs sit in 7th place right now in the west, a 1/2 game behind Oklahoma City and 1 1/2 in front of Portland. Surprisingly, only four games separate 2nd place from eighth place in the west right now. The Spurs are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games after a win at home over Orlando on Friday, 112-110. Manu Ginobili scored a season-high 43-points in the win. The Spurs have gotten hot at the right time, knocking off three division leaders in the last week (Orlando, Cleveland and Boston). "We couldn't beat anybody the first 40, 50 games of the good (teams)," Ginobili said. "I'm very glad we started doing it. It's better late than not doing it at all." Meanwhile the Lakers have really no reason to press with these games as their lead over 2nd place is a comfortable five games with six to play including games against Minnesota, Sacramento and the Clippers. I'm going to buck a trend here since I don't always believe in just following trends blindly. I'm going to take the points here with the Spurs despite the fact that they have covered just one time in the last eight against the Lakers. Since Ginobili was inserted into the starting lineup in place of Tony Parker, this team has come alive. They are beating the best right now and momentum is on their side. I will take the points and look for the Spurs to pull the straight-up upset here in LA.
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04-03-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bobcats/Bulls Under the total. This game should have a playoff-type atmosphere, as both teams are fighting down the stretch. Charlotte is in great shape to make the playoffs as a No. 6, 7 or 8 seed because they are so strong defensively under Coach Larry Brown. They are 7th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and tops in points allowed (93.6 ppg). This is a slow-down defensive team, and there's no reason for them to go uptempo playing their third game in four nights plus the second of a back to back spot. Chicago is out of the playoffs at present but not too far behind Toronto for that last spot. Chicago is getting healthy, with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah back. They are playing like a motivated team, especially on defense, on a recent 7-4 run under the total. Coach Vinny Del Negro confirmed the coaching staff has discussed starting Joakim Noah for the final seven games of the season, a strong inside force. Charlotte plays its best offensively at home, but they are 5-0 under the total their last 5 road games. Chicago is 4-1 under the total its last 5 home games. With quite a bit at stake, look for an intense defensive game. Play the Bobcats/Bulls Under the total! |
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04-03-10 | Michigan State v. Butler UNDER 126 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: Can't see much scoring here, as Butler slows the tempo down (9-3 under run), as does Michigan State (6-4-1 under run). Butler (32-4) is about tempo and defense, allowing 59.6 ppg. The Bulldogs slow the pace down, on a 3-0 run under the total allowing 45, 59, 52, 59 and 56 points the last five games. They beat Syracuse (63-59 as +6 dog) and K-State (63-56 as +4), while on a 9-3 run under the total. They are patient on offense and have excellent low post defenders with 6-9 soph Gordon Hayward (15.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg), 6-8 junior Matt Howard (11.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and 6-3 senior F Willie Veasley (10 ppg, 4.3 rpg) up front. Michigan State (28-8 SU; 15-19 ATS) held uptempo Tennessee to 69 points and beat slow-down Northern Iowa, 59-52. It's tough to see the Spartans running as their depth is hurting: Michigan State is without its top scorer, Kalin Lucas (14.8 ppg), out 4-6 months (lost 2 weeks ago). Also, Michigan State guard Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) is playing but with a torn ligament, plus forward Delvin Roe (the sixth leading scorer) has a torn meniscus in his right knee and is expected to have surgery once the Spartans' season is over. Rose shot 1-for-4 with 0 rebounds (though a team leading 3 blocks) the last game. I see a lot of defense from start to finish with so much at stake in this slow-paced battle. Play Michigan State/Butler Under the total! |
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04-02-10 | Chicago Bulls -4 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller: Bulls.
Chicago is getting healthy, with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah back. They still have a shot at catching Toronto for the final playoff spot, just two games behind. They are playing like a motivated team, on a 4-2 SU/ATS run, winning twice as a dog. In fact, they are on a 7-2 ATS run overall. Chicago comes into this one off a tough home loss, playing the Suns neck and neck until a late run by Phoenix. Some good news is that Kirk Hinrich said he plans to return from his sprained left ankle for Friday's game in Washington, Luol Deng hopes to return this weekend adding depth, while coach Vinny Del Negro confirmed the coaching staff has discussed starting Joakim Noah for the final eight games of the season. Noah certainly helped out against the Suns with 12 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in 27 minutes for his first double-double since Jan. 29 and his most playing time since Feb. 26. Noah also appeared in all four quarters for the second straight game, showing doubters he's almost fully back from plantar fasciitis in his left foot. And speaking of injuries, Washington has had a miserable season with injuries, packing it in down the stretch, on a 1-16 SU, 7-10 ATS run. The Wizards avoided an 0-17 March with their first win since beating New Jersey on Feb. 28. Gilbert Arenas has long been suspended for the season, and Josh Howard (torn ACL), Randy Foye (wrist injury) and Al Thornton (hip flexor) were out of the lineup. They are 12-24 at home. Play the Bulls! |
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03-31-10 | Clippers(LA) v. Raptors(Toronto) OVER 204 | Top | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Clippers/Raptors Over the total.
The Clippers have been getting their offense in gear, topping 99 or more in four of six recent games. They have offensive talent with point guard Baron Davis, Drew Gooden, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon. Of course, the defense has been useless all season no matter who the coach is, allowing .468% shooting, 22nd in the league. They take on a Toronto team that has awful transitional defense, something the Clippers and Davis can exploit. Toronto is just as bad on defense, allowing .466% shooting (20th) and 105.5 ppg -- fourth worst. They had a big game at home against Utah and got torched in a 26-point loss, giving up 113 points. They just played two defensive-oriented teams in Miami and Charlotte and allowed 97 and 101 points. This is a difficult scheduling spot for the Clippers, their 3rd game in 4 nights and the second of a back to back road spot. They are 7-3 over the total in the second of back to back road situations, allowing 109 ppg. I can't see either team stopping the other, so look for an offensive show. Play the LA Clippers/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-30-10 | Suns(Phoenix) v. Bulls(Chicago) +3.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Take: (758) CHICAGO BULLS
Reason: High Roller: Bulls. Chicago is getting healthy, with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah back. They still have a shot at catching Toronto for the final playoff spot, just a halg a game behind. After that ugly home loss to Miami, a 103-74 defeat, where Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said, "We didn't have enough fight in us," they showed more than enough fight in blowout wins over the Nets and Pistons (2-0 ATS). Chicago is on a 7-1 ATS run, playing with motivation with the Toronto Raptors struggling. Noah said the last game, "Toronto lost, and we're half a game out. Want to know anything else?" Phoenix is terrific at home, but one game over .500 on the road, yet they are a road favorite here against a fired up team. The Suns are pretty much locked into the No. 5 seed in the West: Sure, they could gain some ground on the Denver and Utah, but the Suns have a difficult schedule to end the season, playing the second of a 5-game road trip here. They are just 1-3 ATS the last four games. This is the fourth home game over the last five games for Chicago. The wrong team opened as the favorite. Play the Bulls. |
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03-28-10 | Baylor +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The Baylor Bears are peaking at the right time, on a 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS run. Baylor has a slew of big guys to rub elbows with with Duke, including 6-10 Ekpe Udoh, 6-7 Quincy Acy, 6-10 Anthony Jones and 7-foot, 280-pound center Josh Lomers. In addition, Baylor as plenty of offensive firepower in the backcourt with LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg, 4.9 rp) and Tweety Carter. Duke has rattled off seven straight wins (4-3 ATS), though it was again a close game at half with Purdue as they led by just one point, 24-23. Duke used a powerful second half, shooting 59% from the field to pull away for the win, 70-57. Duke also has a big frontline which will get all it can handle from Baylor's. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler each average over 17 ppg for Duke. In previous games for Duke they had little trouble in the frontcourt, but today they have a formidable opponent in Baylor. Plus what I like here is that Baylor is practically playing in its own backyard in Houston. I'm going to take the points with Baylor here on Sunday.
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03-27-10 | Dallas Mavericks -4 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 111-90 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
Take: (509) DALLAS MAVERICKS
Reason: High Roller: Mavericks. Dallas has been a vastly improved team since the big trade and they are highly motivated down the stretch, locked in a tie with Denver for the No. 2 seed in the West. They have the top road record in the West and face a defenseless Golden State team, one allowing 112.5 ppg (worst in the league). They come off a bad game, getting blown out at Portland. Dirk Nowitzki was surprised and embarrassed on Thursday as to why he was given a quick ejection early in the third quarter. He, and the team, will be focused for this bounce back spot, especially against a terrible Golden State team that is small up front. Dallas has a stellar 22-14 road mark and the Big Trade has turned out to be a boon for the Mavs. This team was reborn when it traded for Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson. The best thing about the improved play has been the attitude that has come with it. The Mavericks are swaggering rather than staggering, as they were before the deal. The Golden State defense allows .487% shooting by opponents, easily the worst mark in the league. These teams met on this floor last month and Dallas won by 10 points as a 5-point favorite, shooting 52% with an edge in fast break points 41-18! I see the Mavericks bouncing back easily in a game they need to win. Play the Mavericks. |
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03-26-10 | Northern Iowa +1.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 50 m | Show |
Take: (873) NORTHERN IOWA
Reason: Tournament Game of the Year: Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa (30-4 SU, 22-10-1 ATS) is a terrific team, great defense, great frontcourt and an RPI rank of 17. They beat Kansas (69-67) as +11 dog and crushed a Big 10 school in Iowa (67-50). Northern Illinois has a dominant defense, allowing 55 ppg because of a big frontcourt with 7-foot 280-lb senior center Jordan Eglseder (12 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and 6-8, 255-lb senior F Adam Koch (11.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg). UNI is 21-0 when scoring 60 or more points in the 2009-10 season and they are 6-1 SU/ATS as a dog. Northern Iowa is healthy and takes on a banged up Michigan State team that hasn't looked sharp, beating New Mexico State (70-67) as 13-point chalk and lucked out beating Maryland (85-83). Worse, the team is badly banged-up: Leading scorer, junior G Kalin Lucas (14.8 ppg), ruptured the Achilles tendon in his left foot during the first half of Sunday's NCAA tournament game against Maryland and is out 4-6 months. He is a two-time All-Big Ten player and 2009 conference player of the year. He missed one game this season, a 78-73 loss at Illinois (as a favorite). Guard Chris Allen (8.6 ppg) was limited to just 4 minutes against the Terrapins because of an injury to the arch in his right foot, Delvon Roe (6.6 ppg) hobbled on his surgically repaired right knee against them and 6-8 senior Raymar Morgan (11.6 ppg, 6 rpg) played with a broken tooth. "We've got a 'MASH' unit," Tom Izzo said. "The bottom of Chris' foot is purple, Delvon is playing on one leg and Raymar looks like a hockey player with his tooth cut in half. We'll hold Delvon out of practice to let him rest as much as we can. Maybe Magic Johnson will show up and help us out a little bit," Izzo said. They can't get Magic for this one but could use him with all their problems. My Tourney Game of the Year: Play Northern Iowa! |
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03-24-10 | Utah Jazz v. Toronto Raptors OVER 214 | Top | 113-87 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Raptors Over the total. The Toronto transition defense is just terrible, a combination of too many aging legs and offensive players ill-suited for defense. And who comes to town: Young, uptempo Utah! Toronto is allowing 110 ppg at home this season and overall is 20th in the NBA in points allowed. They are in a truly wretched defensive stretch right now, giving up over 100 points in eight of the last nine games. Utah is loaded with offensive players, from Mehmet Okur, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer and sparkplug guard Deron Williams. Williams had 22 points and 11 assists the last game, a 110-97 win over a strong Boston defense. Williams got his 36th double-double. Utah is fifth in the NBA in scoring at 103.7 ppg and is on an 11-5 run over the total. Both teams are rested for this one, so look for an uptempo game with no defense. Play the Jazz/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-23-10 | Denver Nuggets v. New York Knicks +6.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
Take: (654) NEW YORK KNICKS
Reason: High Roller: NY Knicks. The Knicks play hard for Coach Mike D'Antoni, getting outscored at home by just 3 ppg. They take on a Denver team that is dominant at home, but only 17-17 on the road. New York is 3-2 SU/ATS its last 5 home games, with a young, uptempo offense, so they match up well with run-and-gun Denver. This is the third straight home game for the rested Knicks. NY shot 50% the last game against Houston, as Tracy McGrady finished with 15 points, seven rebounds and five assists and hard working David Lee had 27 points and 20 rebounds. Despite playing the last three games at home, the Nuggets are on a 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS run and this is a long road trip. It's the start of a difficult stretch this week, playing three road games in four nights. Any chance George Karl has to rest his starters he will jump at the chance. The last two games as a home dog, the Knicks lost to Houston by 4 and beat Atlanta, 99-98, as a +7 dog. Look for a fired up effort by the home team and a close one. Play the NY Knicks. |
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03-22-10 | Princeton +6 v. IUPUI | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
I'll be taking the points here on Monday with Princeton. Getting points with a exceptional defensive team is never a bad thing. And, Princeton has the top rated scoring defense in the country, allowing just 52 points per game this season. And, who's No 2? That would be Northern Iowa, the team that just knocked off the NCAA's #1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks. Princeton will face the Jaguars of Indiana Purdue here on Monday. IP did great in conference play, going 15-4, but how did they do in non-con games? They had a few quality wins, beating Drake and Duquesne. But they did get blown out against Auburn, Kansas State, Notre Dame and Memphis. Princeton also beat Duquesne, St Joe's and Central Michigan in non-con games. But the Tigers lost to G.Washington, Cal and Rutgers. However, the Tigers played Cornell close in both games, losing by three in both meetings. And what's important here is that Cornell is showing they can beat the best defensive teams in the country, pasting both Temple and Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament. But when the Big Red faced Princeton, they scored just 48 and 50 points respectfully. I believe this is an important point since it shows that the country's best defensive team can hold very good offensive teams down. Now, against a IUPIU club we get six points!!! That's just way too many points to give this good a defensive club. And, that's why I'm taking Princeton here on Monday. Any defense that can keep Cornell to 50 points and under twice in a season can keep the Jaguars down here. I won't be surprised at all to see Princeton pull out the straight up win.
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03-21-10 | Texas A&M -1.5 v. Purdue | Top | 61-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Texas A&M opened NCAA play with a resounding win over a very good Utah State club, 69-53. It was the Aggies 11th cover in their last 13 games. The No 5 seeded Aggies now face 4th seeded Purdue. A&M played the 6th toughest schedule in the country and this is when that experience pays off. Purdue will make the 12th nationally ranked opponent for the Aggies this season. I will be taking A&M here on Sunday and mainly because of their defense. The Aggies led the Big 12 in scoring defense in league play (65.8 ppg) and held No 1 Kansas to a Big 12 season low of 59 points. A&M is also 21-1 SU this season when holding its opponent to under 70 points. That will be a tall order for Purdue to eclipse on Sunday considering that the Boilermakers have 70 points or more in just three of their last 10 games. And, Purdue is without senior forward Robbie Hummel who has a injured knee. Hummel was the team's second leading scoring with 15.7 ppg and second in rebounds (6.9 rpg). They Boilermakers also lose their best free throw shooter (90%) and their highest percentage three-point shooter (36%). The oddsmakers already expect this to be a low scoring game with a total of 125 1/2 and that means Purdue will likely stay under that magic number of 70 points. A&M just playing too well against good teams to pass in this spot. I'll lay the 1 or 1 1/2 points here and look for A&M's defense to shut down the Boilermakers.
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03-20-10 | BYU +4.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 72-84 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Reason: Tournament High Roller: BYU.
There aren't many 30-win teams in the country, but there is one here with 30-5 BYU. Guard play is so important in March action, and BYU is loaded with a dynamite three-guard attack in Jimmer Fredette (22.1 ppg), Jackson Emery (12.5 ppg) and Tyler Haws (11.2 ppg), their three leading scorers. They average a sizzling 83 ppg and won 10 of 13 games away from home. They blitzed Florida with a 99-92 double OT win, as Fredette tied Danny Ainge's BYU record of 37 points in a NCAA tournament game. The sparkplug junior guard scored 37 points on 13-of-26 shooting from the field, including 3-of-8 from three and 8-of-10 from the free-throw line. Kansas State Coach Frank Martin said after watching tape of BYU Thursday night that he became convinced that it is one of the best offensive teams in the country. I agree. Kansas State is just 3-3 SU/ATS the last six games, even losing as a 15-point favorite to Iowa State. K-State has losses to outstanding offensive teams (Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas) and BYU can score on anyone in the country. In five seasons at BYU, Coach Dave Rose has led the Cougars to a record of 127-39, winning 20-plus games each year. They have more than enough firepower, so I'll back the motivated 3-guard BYU lineup in this one. Play BYU. |
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03-17-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz OVER 214 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total.
Minnesota is a terrible defensive team, surrendering 106.8 ppg and .475% shooting by opponents. Youth is a part of the problem, but another part is that the organization is building around young offensive players. There are no stellar defensive players, individually or as a unit, plus the coach doesn't know how to teach 'D'. This is a terrible situational spot, as well, playing the second of a back to back road spot, after running up and down the court with Phoenix last night. Minnesota is 9-2-1 over the total in the second of back to backs. Utah is rested for this one, an uptempo team behind Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams that averages 103.4 ppg (fifth best in the NBA). They are on a 9-3 run over the total and will run right at the tired visitors. The last six meetings between these teams have gone over the total, plus 14-3 over the last 17 meetings. Look for a lot of layups by the home team and plenty of points. Play the Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total. |
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03-16-10 | William & Mary +8.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
Take: (577) WILLIAM & MARY
Reason: NIT 1st Round Shocker Game of the Year: William & Mary. The Tribe enjoyed one the of the best seasons in school history, advancing to the CAA Championship Game for the second time in three years and tallying a 22-10 overall mark. Coach Tony Shaver was named the CAA Coach of the Year for the second time. What's impresssive about this team is how well they've played on the road and against big name schools. William & Mary won a school-record 10 road games. Included in the Tribe |
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03-15-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The LA Lakers maintain a three game lead in the west over the Nuggets and 3 1/2 games over the Mavericks. The Lakers have won two straight games and six of their last 10. Meanwhile Golden State has a modest three game winning streak of its own. While the Warriors have no hopes of post season, teams always get some satisfaction of playing good and beating the Lakers. That's the kind of effort I expect here today. I'm taking the OVER here on Monday between these teams. They have already met three times this season with two of the three going OVER with point totals of 227 and 242. But what really stands out for me in this matchup is when the teams meet up north. The last 44 times these teams have met at Golden State they have gone over 30 times, that's just over 68% of the time. And the Lakers have scored a lot of points too. In the last 12 trips to GST, the Lakers have scored 110 points or more in 10 of those contest. And this season the Warriors are dead last in the league in points allowed (111.1 ppg). I expect a high scoring affair here as Koke and Company have little trouble scoring points. If we can get Golden State motivated, which they should be, then this is an OVER contest.
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03-14-10 | Minnesota +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 61-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I have made my clients a ton of money in this tournament knowing when to play the dogs and this is another dog spot. I'm taking Minnesota here on Sunday in the Big 10 Championship. Minnesota has beaten arguably the two best teams in the Big 10 with back-to-back wins over Michigan State and Purdue. The latter they whipped by 27 points on Saturday. That makes four straight covers for the Gophers and eight of the last nine. Ohio State had to go to two OT's on Saturday to dispense with Illinois and I believe that will wear on the club here. Not only is this three games in three days for the Buckeyes (which Minnesota is also doing), but with two OT's that's a quarter of another game. How much fatigue will be on those Ohio State legs after playing so many minutes on Saturday? I think this is the perfect spot for Minnesota to win this conference tourney. They have played the better competition and they are getting a team that really had to press on Saturday. Ohio State is in the NCAA tournament but I don't believe Minnesota will be unless they win today. I look for the Gophers to win this one straight up here on Sunday.
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03-13-10 | Ohio +1 v. Akron | Top | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Ohio U looks to get the automatic NCAA bid today and they have been on a roll. Not only have they won two straight in this tourney with wins over Kent State (81-64) and Miami Ohio (54-42), but they have won six of their last seven overall. Additionally they have covered five straight games and 10 of the last 11. They have lost twice to Akron this year, 67-62 at home back on Jan 13 and in OT at Akron, 91-88, back on Feb 14th. The Bobcat's Armon Bassett has been amazing, scoring 91 pints (41 free throws) in his last three games including 28 points in the win over Miami. Meanwhile, Akron's Chris McNight hit the winning bucket with just 6.8 second left to lif the Zips past Western Michian on Friday, 66-64. Akron has covered just one of its last three games though. I'm looking here at the quality of play in recent outings. Akron just got by WMU by 2-points as a 3 1/2 point favorite, had to go to OT to beat Eastern Michigan the night before and lost to Kent at home 74-61. Ohio won a tough OT game at Ball State, then whipped Kent (81-64) before using a stifling defense to upend Miami (54-42). As tournament play moves along, handicapping tendencies can shift toward more defense and low scoring games. The games mean more so teams will give more of an effort on defense, something that players know but the coach will still emphasize the value of defense as each game gets more meaningful. Ohio looks the better of these teams right now at tourney time and that's who I'm taking here on Saturday evening in what should be another lower scoring affair.
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03-12-10 | New Mexico State +6 v. Nevada | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Take: (883) NEW MEXICO STATE
Reason: WAC Tourney Game of the Year: New Mexico State. I like the balance and explosive offense of this New Mexico State (20-11) team. The backcourt leads in scoring with Jahmar Young (20.7 ppg) and Jonathan Gibson (17.9 ppg). But there is plenty of balance with 6-8 sophomore Troy Gillenwater (13.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg), 6-6 Wendell McKines (10.8 ppg, 10 rpg) and 7-foot center Hamidu Rahman (10.7 ppg, 8 rpg) up front. They can beat you from outside or inside. That was on display in the tourney opener, a 90-69 rout of San Jose. Nevada won both meetings during the regular season, but both were competitive. The Wolf Pack trailed 58-55 with 10:56 to play the last meeting before winning by 8. New Mexico State was respectable on the road and has the same record, both overall and in the WAC, with Nevada. This shapes up as another close one with so much at stake, so grab the dog. Play New Mexico State. |
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03-12-10 | New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 210.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Knicks/Memphis Over the total. The NY offense is back to a run and gun style, on an 11-5 run over the total. Of course, that hasn't helped in the win column, giving up over 104 ppg. The Knicks have allowed over 100 points in 13 of the last 16 games, and 110 or more in 11 of those. The offense averages over 100 points, but the soft defense allows .480% shooting by opponents -- that is tied with New Jersey for last in the NBA. Things get tougher this game as they head to uptempo Memphis, a team with a ton of young offensive talent with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph. They come off a stunner, shooting 55% at Boston in a 111-91 upset. O.J. Mayo made seven of eight shots en route to 17 points. They are on a 5-2 run over the total. The Memphis offense will be motivated after that big win at Boston, as they are still 3 games out of the Western Conference |
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03-12-10 | Miami Florida +4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Take: (827) MIAMI FLORIDA
Reason: ACC Conf Tourney GOY: Miami Florida (827). Miami (19-12) not only pulled a big surprise yesterday, but it wasn't even close. Redshirt freshman Reggie Johnson scored a season-high 22 points against his hometown school and 12th-seeded Miami routed fifth-seeded Wake Forest 83-62 on Thursday in the first round of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. The Hurricanes have been playing well for a while now, on a 6-3-1 ATS run. Miami has a strong offense, 5th in the ACC in points scored, 3rd in shooting percentage, and third in points allowed, so these Canes can play. Johnson was 8-for-8 from the field and 6-for-6 from the line yesterday! Miami shot 51% as a team yesterday and when they last played Virginia Tech, the Canes shot 63% in an 82-75 win, leading by 17 at the half. Miami has the better defense and V-Tech was last in the ACC in shooting (39.8%). Miami has the better offense and their attacking defense (third in the ACC in steals) will be able to shut down the weak-shooting Hokies. Play Miami, Florida. |
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03-11-10 | CS Fullerton v. UC Davis +3 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Take: (786) UC DAVIS
Reason: Big West Game of Year: UC Davis. UC Davis worked hard to get here, on a 4-4 SU, 6-1 ATS run. The No. 4 seed is the highest ever for the Aggies, who are taking part in their second Big West Tournament. They have a tremendous balance on offense, plus a lightening quick defense, leading the Big West in steals with 9.9 per game. 6-8 junior Joe Harden (14.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is a remarkable guard, big enough to create mismatches and leads the team in rebounds. He teams with 6-10 senior Dominic Calegari (16.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and playmaker Mark Payne (16.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) for a dynamite trio. Calegari and Harden both earned All-Big West Second-Team honors. UC Davis went 2-0 SU/ATS against Fullerton, including a win as a dog the last game. Davis concluded its regular season Saturday night in a thrilling 92-86 overtime victory at Cal State Fullerton. The win, coupled with a Cal Poly loss later that night, gave the Aggies the first-round bye. Fullerton had to play yesterday, topping Northridge in a shootout, 84-76. Fullerton's three top scorers played 32, 34 and 38 minutes. I'll back the rested team, Play UC Davis. |
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03-11-10 | UCLA +1 v. Arizona | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Reason: Pac 10 Tourney Game of the Year: UCLA.
Arizona has the winning record in this game, but they were just over a .500 team (16-14). They are a terrible road team at 4-7 and this tourney is played in the Staples Center in Los Angeles. UCLA senior guard Michael Roll finished third in the Pacific-10 Conference in league play in three-point field goal percentage at 41.9 percent (44-for-105) and ranked fourth in three-pointers made per game (2.4). UCLA has battled injuries all season, but catches a break as 6-8 Freshman forward Reeves Nelson will be back in the lineup for this game. "Reeves is our best low-post scorer," Coach Ben Howland said. Not only does UCLA have a bit of a home area edge, but big game experience, too, with Howland, plus the Bruins won the Tournament title in 2006 & 2008. Arizona is 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS its last three games away from home and UCLA has the big edge with "home" fans, and I'm backing the matchup and the home town edge. Play UCLA. |
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03-10-10 | Denver Nuggets -8 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 110-102 | Push | 0 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: Nuggets.
Denver just finished up a sizzling 3-game home stand, winning all three games. They faced a team that doesn't play defense and ones that do, and it didn't matter, torching the nets for 119, 122 and 118 points, winning by 29, 8 and 12 points. The Nuggets tallied 31 assists in the 118-106 victory against Portland. Denver (42-21) is 3 1/2 games back of L.A. and a half-game behind Dallas. Well that's real bad news for defenseless Minnesota, a team that allows 106.7 ppg -- second most in the NBA. And it's not because they play some attacking offensive style, as the offense is 25th in the league. The Timberwolves defense is allowing .475% shooting by opponents, 25th in the NBA. And Denver comes to town not only red-hot, but with the No. 2 scoring attack in the league, tallying 107.6 ppg, just behind Phoenix. Can the home team keep pace? They haven't been, on an 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS run, allowing 109 or more points in every game. The last three home games Minnesota has lost by 19, 14 and 13 points. A great spot for the rested, motivated and far better team. Play the Nuggets. |
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03-09-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 188 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. And what has happened the last three games? All under the total with sensational defensive efforts, allowing 86, 83 and 80 points. endrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender, 3-0 under since he came back. They should have lost the last game, at home to the Wizards, as the offense was terrible, but the Green hung tough with a monster defensive effort and were able to rally late. so they've gone under the total the last three games by 6, 14 and 24 points, an average of 14 points under the Vegas number. Milwaukee's second half surge has been impressive, and it's been molded with a very impressive defense. This team used to have a run-and-gun reputation, but they have become a tough defensive team. Oddsmakers haven't caught up, either, as the Bucks are on a 14-5 run under the total. Can't see as much scoring as oddsmakers anticipate; Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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03-08-10 | Dallas Mavericks -7 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
I'll be laying the points here on the road with the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks have been a very good proposition to bettors this year when they are on the road. In fact, they have been much better to bet on away from home than at home. The Mavs are 20-13 ATS on the road this year and just 7-21 ATS at home. This is because Dallas is one of the few teams that scores on the road what they average at home (101 ppg). And, seeing as they usually lay less on the road or even get some points, it's easy to see why this team is a good road bet. Lets take a look at their last four road games; a 10 point win at Orlando; eight point win at Atlanta, five point win at Charlotte and six point win at Chicago. Those are some tough home courts to not only cover, but pull out the straight up win. If we look at Minnesota, we find something interesting also. The T'Wolves are 6-13 ATS as a home dog of 6 to 7 1/2 points their last 19. And one fact I found a bit intriguing was that the Wolves have lost over 80% of their home games straight up when they have received six or more points. I've like playing Dallas on the road this season and especially against the lower echelon of the league. Lay the points here with the Mavericks.
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03-08-10 | Fairfield +7.5 v. Siena | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Take: (519) FAIRFIELD
Reason: Inner Circle: Fairfield. All the focus is on might Siena, the top seend looking for its third straight crown. But don't overlook the Fairfield Stags, the No. 2 seed in the conference. They have comparable offense and defensive numbers to Siena, and the two regular season meetings were decided by 8 and 2 points. Fairfield earned its opportunity to play for the title with a 69-63 win over Niagara University, one night after defeating Canisius College. Derek Needham and Anthony Johnson lead the attack. Needham averaged 23 points per game through the first two contests, while Johnson is averaging 17.5 points per contest. Fairfield is on a sizzling 10-3 ATS run, playing great defense. Look for another close one between these top two seeds. Play Fairfield. |
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03-08-10 | William & Mary +9 v. Old Dominion | Top | 53-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Take: (511) WILLIAM & MARY
Reason: College Basketball High Roller: William and Mary. In order to hang with the top seed you need defense. William and Mary has it, allowing 64 ppg and 43% shooting. We saw it in two regular season meetings with Old Dominion, plus the last game. The No. 3 seed Tribe have excellent balance on offense and experience, with Senior guard David Schneider and 6-7 senior forward Danny Sumner. William & Mary held Northeastern to just 34 percent from the floor and 15.2 percent from 3-pointer range Sunday. Old Dominion is the top seed, but needed overtime Sunday to pull out a 73-69 victory over VCU. VCU shot 44%, including 40% from long range. William & Mary is play in its second CAA Championship Game in the last three seasons. Old Dominion won both regular season meetings with the Tribe, but one was a narrow 58-55 win in Williamsburg. William & Mary is playing hard, on a 7-2 SU, 6-2-1 ATS run and has more than enough to keep this close. Play William & Mary. |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
Normally when we think of the Portland Trailblazers we think "defense." I don't think the word "OVER" comes first to mind. But surprisingly this team has some good over spots and today is one of them. I'm going with the OVER here. First, the Blazers have been a good over bet on the road as the last three road games have gone OVER and nine of the last 11 away contest have gone OVER. And what kind of surprised me even more than that was the fact that Portland has scored over 100 points in each of its last nine away games. Second, we couple this road scoring binge with the fact that the Denver Nuggets are the 22nd ranked scoring defense in the league. The Nuggets allow an average of 102.56 ppg overall this season. Thirdly, we toss in a Denver offense that has gone OVER the total in four straight home games and 10 of its last 13 home games. The Nuggets have the second ranked scoring offense in the league and the top rated scoring offense at home (112.22 ppg). All in all, this game shapes up as a good old fashioned shoot out. I'll take the OVER here as one of my red-hot Hi Roller totals and look for at least 210 or more in this one.
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03-05-10 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 197.5 | Top | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/76ers Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. The Celtics put their game faces on the last contest, cruising to a 104-80 win, holding Charlotte to 36 percent shooting. Kendrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender. That game sailed under the total and they are a team capable of ripping off a string of unders -- like a recent 12-3 under the total run -- when they have their best defensive effort. This is a divisional rivalry game. The 76ers are without Allen Iverson and have score 95 or fewer points in 3 of the last 4 games. They are also on a 15-9 run under the total. The last time they met on this floor earlier this season, the game went under the total by double digits as the 76ers scored 74 points. Play the Celtics/76ers Under the total. |
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03-03-10 | Detroit Pistons v. New York Knicks OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Pistons/Knicks Over the total.
On the plus side, the Detroit offense has been better the second half of the season because their top offensive players are finally healthy. On the flip side, the defense has been playing poorly. They gave up 101 in a win over the Spurs and 97 in an ugly loss to the Clippers. They also gave up 116 in a blowout loss to Orlando. This is a tough situational spot, playing their fifth road game over the last six games, plus the second of a back to back spot, taking on the rival Celtics last night. Hard to see Detroit having the legs to play defense here. That means the Knicks will run right at them, which is their preferred style anyway. The Knicks are rested and running, scoring 109, 106 and 119 the last three games. But the main reason they are on a 9-1 run over the total is a defense that has gone to sleep (thanks, Tracy McGrady), allowing 110 points or more in 9 of the last 10 games! And some of the games have been frightening, allowing 121 to Oklahoma City, 110 to struggling Boston, 116 to Washington (in a win) and 120 to Memphis. In back to back games against the Bulls, the Knicks allowed 115 and 118 points, so it's not that the opponent has a hot shooting hand; NY just doesn't feel like making an effort on defense and we'll grab another shootout. Pistons/Knicks Over the total. |
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03-02-10 | Tennessee Tech +9 v. Austin Peay | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
Take: (557) TENNESSEE TECH
Reason: Ohio Valley Tourney Game of the Year: Tennessee Tech. I like this Tennessee Tech offense, averaging 75 ppg, led by sophomore Kevin Murphy (15.6 points per game). Senior Frank Davis is averaging 14.0 points per game for the Golden Eagles and is among the best 3-point shooters in the nation, hitting 46.0 percent of his outside shots, while senior Elijah Cunningham-Muhammad averages 4.5 assists per game, ranks second in the OVC in assists. Tennessee Tech had two fierce battles with Austin Peay during the regular season, and the two teams are set to meet one final time in opening round action of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. Tech won 94-90 on Jan. 21 before dropping a 77-72 overtime thriller in Clarksville on Feb. 18. They match up well with Austin Peay, a team that is just 11-7 in the Ohio Valley, and 17-14 overall. Austin Peay is not playing its best basketball, giving up over 80 points in two of its last three games, plus on a 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS run, losing twice as a favorite. Play Tennessee Tech! |
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03-01-10 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 210 | Top | 93-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
I'm looking at the OVER in tonight's contest between the Knicks and Cavs. It hasn't been a great trade yet for the Knicks since they acquired Tracy McGrady from the Rockets. McGrady sat out the second half of Saturday's game against the Grizzlies saying he didn't want any setbacks after his knee was sore. Having played in back-to-back nights, MrGrady felt it best to sit the second half and not push his return. Or could it have been his ineffectiveness in the 1st half, going 0-3 and not logging a single point. Not exactly the production the Knicks were expecting. Still, the Knicks have been a great bet for OVER plays lately, having eclipsed the total in three straight games and nine of the last 10. Poor defense has a lot to do with it though, having allowed over 110 points in the last three games and nine of the last 10 games. Let me say that again, they have allow OVER 110 points in nine of the last 10 games. Tonight they have to face the league's seventh highest scoring team in Cleveland. I fully expect this Cavs team to get at or over 120 points in this one. The Cavs have scored over 100 points in 10 of the last 12 games. They have had two days of rest for this contest and next up is lowly New Jersey. I also like the fact that Shaquille O'Neal will be lost to the Cavs, likely for the rest of the regular season with surgery on this thumb. If anything the loss of O'Neal hurts the club more on defense and any less of that is good for our OVER. The key here will be if New York can get us at or just over 100 points. If they can, this one should fly over. Take the OVER as our Hi Roller Total for Monday.
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02-28-10 | Marquette +2 v. Seton Hall | Top | 84-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Marquette must be living right, they have won two consecutive OT contests; 79-76 at Cincinnati and then 63-61 at St Johns. Lucky for them, they have had a few days off to rest for today's contest at Seton Hall. Still, this Marquette team has been good to bettors this season, covering four of the last five games and 10 of the last 13. Moreover, the road hasn't been much of a problem as they are 9-3 this season away from home. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for the host team here. Seton Hall has won four of its last five games. However, the team has covered just one of hte last six and four of the last 16. One thing is for sure with the Marquette Golden Eagles, they are sure to be in the game until the end. Of their 27 games thus far, 11 have been decided by four points or fewer (5 by one point). And, Maruqette is one of just seven teams in the country that has not suffered a double-digit loss this season. Marquette has been red hot, winninger seven of their last eight games straight up. In addition, Marquette has won six straight games in this series with a margin of victory of 12 points. With a hot visitor who is always around at the end, we'll take the short points here on Sunday and look for the straight up win.
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02-27-10 | Texas v. Texas A&M | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
Take: (566) TEXAS A&M
Reason: College Basketball Game of the Year: Texas A&M. This is the Lone Star Showdown, a rivalry game, so the home crowd will be into this one to try and knock off No. 21 Texas. Texas A&M has a dynamite backcourt that matches up well against the Longhorns, led by Don Sloan (18 ppg). The Aggies have been undervalued all season and continue to be, riding a 5-2 SU, 7-0 ATS run. These teams have split the last five years with each winning on their own home court. A&M is 13-1 in home games and the only loss was to Kansas, leading with 3 minutes to play. Texas is just 5-4 in true road games, and is slumping, on a 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS run. In fact, they have been huge money burners, on a 3-11 ATS run. The problem is defense, giving up 80 or more points in 6 of the last 10 games. The Aggies are 29-3 SU at home the last two seasons, plus 14-5 SU in their last 19 Big 12 games (only mighty Kansas has a better record). A&M has played 9 nationally ranked teams this year and they come home after a two-game road trip. While Texas has struggled defensively the last 10 games, in Big 12 play, A&M has had held its opponents to an average of 8.6 points under their respective scoring averages. Only Kansas State and Oklahoma State have exceeded their averages against the Aggies. Overall, A&M ranks second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (67.6) in conference play. A&M held top-ranked Kansas to just 59 points, the first time the Jayhawks have failed to score at least 72 in league play this season. I see a huge defensive effort against the rival Longhorns, and A&M is 16-1 this season when its opponents score fewer than 70 points. A great spot for the fired up home crowd and home team. Play Texas A&M. |
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02-26-10 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
NBA High Roller Total: Jazz/Kings Over the total.
Sacramento is terrible on defense, allowing 47% shooting -- 24th in the NBA. All those lay-ups allowed explains why they are giving up 105.8 ppg, fourth worst in the league. That's a bad mix here, as Utah comes to town with an uptempo attack shooting .49% from the field, No. 1 in the NBA. The Jazz offense has been clicking on this terrific winning streak they've been on the last two months. Carlos Boozer is on his way to validating the Jazz's decision to keep him for the remainder of the season, answering the call in the four games since general manager Kevin O'Connor's phone stopped ringing. The reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, Boozer helped the Jazz shrug off a 13-point deficit in the third quarter Wednesday and finished with 33 points and 16 rebounds on 13-for-16 shooting in a 102-93 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Sparkplug guard Deron Williams returned from a right quad contusion with 20 points and 12 assists. The Kings defense has really been soft of late, allowing 101, 104, 99 and 130 points the last four games -- all losses. All in all, look for far more offense this game than defense. Play the Jazz/Kings Over the total. |
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02-25-10 | Loyola Marymount +4 v. San Diego | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
Take: (557) LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Reason: High Roller: Loyola Maramount. You have to be impressed with this young Loyola team. The Lions do not feature a senior on the roster and are starting a freshman, three sophomores and a junior. Yet, they are playing well, winners in five of their last seven, including wins over a pair of the top teams in the West Coast Conference last weekend. Loyola is on a 4-1 SU/ATS run and super-motivated, remaining in the hunt for a first round bye in the upcoming WCC Basketball Championships. The Lions remain a game behind San Francisco for fourth in the WCC as they head to San Diego on Thursday. The Lions enter the final stretch of conference play with five players averaging double figures, led by sophomore Drew Viney, who leads the team in scoring at 16.4 points per contest and rebounds at 7.1 per contest. The first-year player who transferred from Oregon in 2008, has four double-doubles this season, including his 16 points and 10 rebounds in the Gonzaga win. In defeating two of the top three teams in the WCC last weekend, they flustered high-powered offenses. Gonzaga entered the game averaging 78.6 points, 49.5 percent shooting from the field, 13.4 turnovers and a +.20 turnover margin. LMU held them to 66 points, 34.4 percent shooting (second lowest on the season), and went +1 in turnover margin. Portland entered the game averaging 73.1 points, 47.3 percent shooting from the field, 13.0 turnovers per game and a +.44 turnover margin. The Lions held them to 68 points, 36.7 percent shooting (second lowest on the season), forced them into 21 turnovers. San Diego is a team going nowhere, with a losing record at home, plus riding an 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS run. Even worse, they are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS the last 11 games, clearly a team that has packed it in. This one won't be close. Play Loyola Maramount! |
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02-24-10 | Xavier v. St Louis +4.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Take: (770) SAINT LOUIS
Reason: Dog of the Month: Saint Louis. St. Louis is peaking at the right time, on a sizzling 6-0 SU/ATS run! The Billikens (18-8, 9-3 Atlantic 10) put the streak on the line against Xavier here, in a game they designated the "Billiken Blizzard." That means it's an emotional game with tourney positioning on the line, with the first 1,000 students in attendance receiving a free white Billiken Blizzard T-shirt. All fans are encouraged to wear white to the game, so they will be LOUD! Xavier is 10-2 in the A-10, St. Louis is 9-3 just a game behind, so the home team will have its game faces on. Xavier is just 5-5 on the road and plays its 5th road game over the last 6 games here, a tough stretch. St. Louis is so strong defensively, allowing just 59 ppg, which is why they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a dog. In fact, even more impressive: 5-0 SU/ATS their last 5 as a dog! A great situational and emotional spot for home team and crowd. Play St. Louis. |
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02-23-10 | Illinois +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 51-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Take: (525) ILLINOIS
Reason: Big 10 Game of the Year: Illinois. Illinois is 9-5 in the Big 10, just two games out of first. They were underdogs the last two games, and lost both to Ohio State and Purdue, so this is a big game to stop the conference skid. The two game skid is a bit misleading: Illinois held its own for 37 minutes on the road against a Top-5 opponent, but No. 4 Purdue pulled away in the final three minutes to defeat the Illini 75-65 Saturday in West Lafayette. Illinois led for much of the game and trailed by just one at 61-60 with 3:15 left. But Purdue closed the game on a 14-5 run to snap the Illini's three-game road winning streak. They have outstanding balance with Tisdale and Davis up front, plus a Demetri McCamey leads the Big Ten and ranks second in the nation in assists with an average of 6.9 apg. McCamey is averaging 17.0 points over the last 12 games (204), while Mike Davis ranks second in the Big?Ten in rebounding (8.5 rpg). Illinois is on a 5-2 SU/ATS run, while Michigan is slumping, on a 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS run. Play Illinois! |
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02-22-10 | Georgia Southern +9.5 v. Samford | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
Neither of these clubs will be confused with the Southern Conference elite as both occupy the bottom rungs of the conference. However, the cash is just as green with these teams too and Georgia Southern has been pretty decent to bettors. The Eagles put a big scare into division leading Wofford on Saturday coming from a double-digit deficit to force OT. However, the Eagles dropped the game in OT to Wofford, 82-76. Still, the Eagles have covered four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. Meanwhile, Samford plays its final home game of the season tonight. The Bulldogs snapped a six game home losing streak with a win over Chattanooga on Saturday, 60-54. Unlike Ga Southern, the Bulldogs haven't done well against the number, covering just three times in their last 12 attempts. Samford is averaging a conference low of just 57.7 points per game this season though they allow a conference best 59.3 points per game on defense. It's going to be tough for a team that averages just about 60 points a game to cover a double-digit spread here on Monday, even though they play such good defense. Georgia Southern has already proved they can cover spreads while Samford's lack of offense has resulted in their inability to cover as a chalk. While we don't see any way Ga Southern can win this one straight up, the 10 points is just too much for Samford to cover.
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02-21-10 | St Louis +1.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 69-56 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The Billikens have had three days off to prepare for today's game at U Mass. St Louis is 17-8 SU and riding a five-game winning streak. St Louis is coming off big wins over Rhode Island and Dayton. The Billikens have been generous to bettors also, covering four straight games and going 8-2-1 the last 11. The Billikens also have shown they can come from behind, having overcome double digit deficits in their last three wins. Meanwhile, U Mass (10-16 SU, 4-8 A-10 play) is standing at 10th place in the Atlantic 10. The Minutemen are coming off a loss at George Washington last Wednesday, 66-60. Wins have been hard to come by for U Mass, having won just twice in the last six games and three times in the last 12. Big edge here to St Louis in coaching with Rick Majerus at the helm. Majerus has taken 11 teams to the NCAA tournament and is 3-1 lifetime against U Mass with both this team and his former, Utah. No doubt the hot team here is St Louis, and U Mass is in unfamiliar role as favorite (only 3 times this year). We'll side with the hot club in St Louis as they drive towards the A-10 conference tournament in coming weeks.
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