Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-09-21 | Padres -1.5 v. Rangers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Situational RUN LINE MASSACRE (Padres -1.5, -114) I will gladly take my chances here with the Padres on the -1.5 run line as they get ready to open up a 3-game series at Texas. San Diego should get more than offense to win here going away, as the Rangers don't figure to do much against Padres starters Joe Musgrove. In his first start of 2021, Musgrove threw 6 shutout innings against the Dbacks with 8 Ks. Going back to last season, that's 3 straight starts where Musgrove hasn't allowed a run. He's also got a ridiculous 29 strikeouts to just 2 walks in 19 innings over these 3 starts. Rangers will have Kohei Arihara on the mound. He lasted just 5 innings in his first start at KC, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits with a mere 1 strikeout. Give me the Padres -1.5 (-114)! |
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04-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -120 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Rockies -120) I will gladly take my chances with Colorado as a small home favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are just 2-4, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they opened the season with 4 straight against the Dodgers. After losing to Arizona 8-10 in the series opener on Tuesday, Colorado bounced back and won 8-0 on Wednesday. What I like is the Rockies are producing offensively, as they are scoring 6.2 runs/game. Pretty impressive given the caliber of starter they have faced in their first 6 games. Arizona's Merrill Kelly will start this one and is easily the worst starter they will have seen. Kelly wasn't sharp in his first start, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings of a 2-4 loss to San Diego. Colorado lost Jon Gray's first start against LA, but it wasn't his fault. Gray allowed just 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk with 7 K's in 5 innings. Gray is a guy with serious potential if he puts it all together. I think he will be more than good enough here with the offensive output I'm expecting from the Rockies' hitters. Give me Colorado -120! |
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - NL East Big Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Phillies -147) I will gladly take a shot here with the Phillies as a home favorite of less than -150 with the edge they have on the mound. Philadelphia will send out ace Aaron Nola, who was sharp in his first outing, giving up just 2 runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 3-2 win over Atlanta. New York will counter with David Peterson, who is making his first start of the 2021 season. Peterson just isn't a guy I'm high on. I know he had a respectable 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIp last year in his first go as a big leaguer, but he just doesn't miss enough bats for me. He really struggled in that department in spring ball, posting just 3 K's in 12 innings of work. Give me the Phillies -147! |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. A's | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Dodgers -1.5, -104) I'm going to take the Dodgers on the -1.5 run line at -104 instead of laying the huge juice with LA on the money line. I just think there's a really chance that if this game goes as expected, the Dodgers will win here by more than 1 run. I was really impressed with Trevor Bauer in his Dodgers debut. While he ended up giving up 4 runs in 6 1/3 innings for a not so impressive 5.69 ERA in his first start, he had a no hitter threw 6 innings in that game and posted a sensational 0.790 WHIP. He also struck out 10 guys. I see Bauer having no problem shutting down a A's offense that has arguably been the worst in the league out of the gate. Oakland is averaging just 2.2 runs/game and hitting .169 as a team threw their first 6 contests. I also have some concern with A's starter Jesus Lazardo after he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) in 5 innings of his first start against the Astros. Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-104)! |
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04-06-21 | Pirates v. Reds -154 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE (Reds -154) I got no problem laying a little juice with Reds at home against the Pirates. Cincinnati is 3-1 to start the season, while Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight since winning their opener. The Pirates offense just isn't very good. They have scored a total of 7 runs in their 3-game skid and are hitting just .202 as a team. I just don't see them being able to keep pace offensively with the Reds, especially on the road at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati is averaging 8 runs/game and hitting .279 with a .364 OBP. I could see the Reds putting up double-digits with Pittsburgh sending out Trevor Cahill, who only threw 3 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Give me Cincinnati -154! |
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04-05-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9.5) I like the value with the UNDER 9.5 in Monday's AL East showdown between the Rays and Red Sox. The biggest factor here is the conditions, as it's expected to be around just 50 degrees at game-time with the wind blowing in from right field at close to 15 mph. Another factor is the Red Sox offense. Boston was only able to manage to score 5 runs total in their 3 games at home against the Orioles to start the season. Rays have a much better starting staff than Baltimore and I got high hopes for Tampa Bay starter Michael Wacha, who posted a 0.60 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 15 innings in Spring Training. Little more concern with Nick Pivetta, but given the conditions, I think he can keep the Rays in check enough to keep us well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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04-04-21 | White Sox +121 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (White Sox +121) I will gladly take a shot here with the White Sox as a +121 dog on the road against the Angels. Chicago starter Dylan Cease is a guy I'm really high on coming into this season. Cease was exceptional in spring ball, posting a 1.06 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 17 innings. In his last tuneup he struckout 11 Rockies' hitters in 5 1/3 innings of work and didn't walk a batter in the outing. As good as Cease was in Spring Training, it was the exact opposite for Shohei Ohtani, who had a 12.19 ERA and 2.42 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings. Ohtani gave up 14 runs on 15 hits with a staggering 10 walks. I think the future is bright for Ohtani on the mound, but he's still working back from injury and likely won't be in prime form for at least a couple more months. Give me the White Sox +121! |
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04-04-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
50* (MLB) Sunday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 11.5) Not a lot I can say that I haven't said the last 3 days, as we take the OVER for a fourth straight day in the Rockies/Dodgers series. We cashed the OVER in each of the first two and ended with a push in Game 3. Each of these teams have scored a minimum of 5 runs in each of the 3 games they have played and with temps expected in the low 80s for this one, the ball figures to be flying out of the park. The Dodgers are capable of eclipsing this total on their own and with Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rockies they just might. I know Julio Urias has been solid, but he's got a 6.25 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 7 career starts against Colorado. Give me the OVER 11.5! |
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04-03-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11) We have played and cashed the OVER in each of the first two games of this series. We go again with the OVER on Saturday. These two went for 13 combined runs in the series opener Thursday and have 14 combined runs in the bottom of the 7th in Friday's game as I write up this analysis. The Rockies didn't even have a hit in the first 6 innings of that game. The play is every bit on the way the ball flies out of Coors Field and the ridiculous offense that the Dodgers have. They can hit this total on their own, but I don't think they will have to. Both starters that will go on Saturday performed poorly in Spring Training. The Rockies Jon Gray had a 9.90 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP, giving up 11 runs in 10 innings of work. Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, who had a 7.94 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and allowed 16 runs in 17 innings. Give me the OVER 11! |
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04-02-21 | Astros +128 v. A's | 9-5 | Win | 128 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
30* (MLB) Sharp Money DOG OF THE DAY (Astros +128) I will take a shot here with the Astros as a pretty good sized dog given they had their way in a 8-1 win over the A's on Opening Day. I just think people are sleeping a little on this Houston team. It's a team I'll be on a lot if they continue to hit like they did on Thursday. I also think today's starter, Cristian Javier is way undervalued. He made 17 appearances (5 starts) between the regular and post season last year in his first go as a big leaguer and posted a 3.48 ERA and sensational 0.99 WHIP with opponents hitting just .188 against him. I think he shines and the Astros' bats have another big day against A's starter Jesus Luzardo. Give me Houston +128! |
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04-02-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 11.5) We cashed in the OVER 11 in Thursday's season opener between the Rockies and Dodgers, as the two combined for 13 in Colorado's 8-5 win. With the fire-power that LA has on offense and the game being played at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league in Coors Field, chances are there are going to be a number of runs scored. The key here for me is I think the Rockies can keep pace and even outscore the Dodgers again on Friday. Trevor Bauer was a great pickup for LA, but he didn't have the best spring with a 4.24 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Coors just isn't the place to work out those kinks. Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.80 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 8 starts against the Dodgers. In those 8 starts, the fewest combined runs in a game has been 9. Give me the OVER 11.5! |
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04-01-21 | White Sox -111 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Opening Day PLAY OF THE YEAR (White Sox -111) I absolutely love the White Sox at -111 as they open up the 2021 season on the road against the Angels. This for me is a play on Chicago starter Lucas Giolito, who I think has a legit shot to win the AL Cy Young this year. Giolito had a breakout season in 2019 posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 29 starts. A huge improvement over 2018, when he had a 6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 32 starts. He backed up his strong 2019 with a similar showing in last year's brief season. I think he takes another big step in 2021 and he's certainly looked to be in prime form in Spring Training with a 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 6 starts. I think he's going to be able to make things really difficult against what I feel is a bit of an overrated Angels lineup. Give me the White Sox -111! |
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04-01-21 | Rangers +149 v. Royals | 10-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
30* (MLB) - Opening Day VEGAS VALUE PLAY (Rangers +149) I just can't help myself with the Rangers as a big road dog against the Royals. I get Kansas City looks like a team that could surprise in the AL Central, but no way should they be laying this big of a number. Texas might not be a team that will contend for a playoff spot, but I don't think the Rangers are as bad as what people think. There's some potential with that offense, but I also really like today's starter, Kyle Gibson. He's coming off a strong spring and has pitched well in his career against KC with a 3.70 ERA and 1.287 WHIP in 22 starts. Give me the Rangers +149! |
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04-01-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Opening Day TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 11) I won't be playing a lot of OVERs early in the season, but I do think the OVER 11 is worth a look in Thursday's Opening Day matchup between the Rockies and Dodgers. Even though the ball isn't going to jump off the bat like it will here soon, it's still going to carry well in the thin air of Coors Field. It's not crazy to think the Dodgers can eclipse this total on their own. LA's going to have one of the best offenses, if not the best, in baseball. I think it could be a short day of work for Rockies starter German Marquez, who had an ugly 5.68 ERA and 1.84 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit .338 against him in 19 innings of Spring Training ball. The key here is I think the Rockies are going to do their part and put up some runs. Dodgers will be sending out Clayton Kershaw, who looked to be a bit out of form in Spring Training with a 10.22 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 11! |
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04-01-21 | Twins +101 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Opening Day ODDSMAKER ERROR (Twins +101) I think we are getting a great price here on the Twins at basically a pick'em against the Brewers on Opening Day. Minnesota just doesn't get the respect they deserve. Same goes for today's starter Kenta Maeda, who is not being priced to his performance. Maeda was the AL runner-up for the Cy Young last year, posting a 6-1 record with 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. Maeda showed no signs in Spring Training that last year was any kind of fluke, as he posted a 0.49 ERA and 0.49 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. He's also got a strong 2.59 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Brewers. Brewers will counter with Brandon Woodruff, who is a quality starter, but far from a dominant ace. Woodruff wasn't his best in the spring, with a 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. I just think he struggles to contain what should be a potent Twins offense. Give me Minnesota +101! |
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04-01-21 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
30* (MLB) - Opening Day EARLY BIRD SHARP PLAY (Under 7.5) I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's Opening Day matchup between the Tigers and Indians. I know the wind is going to be blowing out to center at close to 15 mph, but the game time temp is expected to be a mere 31 degrees. The ball just isn't going to carry in these conditions. You als have what I think is going to be two of the worst offensive teams in the majors facing off against two really good starters. Detroit's Matt Boyd posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings in spring training. He's flashed some potential in the past and I think he's more than capable of keeping this Indians offense in check. Cleveland will counter with Shane Bieber, who also had an impressive spring with a 3.12 ERA. Bieber also had 24 K's in 17 1/3 innings of work. He's owned the Tigers in his career with a 2.13 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 6 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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10-27-20 | Rays +128 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
40* RAYS/DODGERS WS GAME 6 SHARP STAKE (Rays +128) I'll take my chances with Tampa Bay winning Game 6 and forcing a Game 7 tomorrow. The Rays have the edge on the mound in this one. TB will send out Blake Snell, while the Dodgers turn to Tony Gonsolin. This is a rematch of starters from Game 2, which the Rays jumped out to an early lead and went on to win 6-4. Snell only went 4 2/3, but allowed just 2 runs and had an impressive 9 strikeouts. Gonsolin was pulled after recording just 4 outs. Gonsolin has made 3 appearances (2 starts) in the postseason and has a 9.39 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Rays offense struggled in Game 5, but that has proven to be a positive sign for their next game. Tampa Bay is 14-4 in their last 18 after scoring 2 runs or less. Give me the Rays +128! |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers -151 v. Rays | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
40* DODGERS/RAYS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Dodgers -151) We will gladly back the Dodgers right around -150 in Game 3 of the World Series. While I was on LA in Game 2, I wasn't shocked they lost that one. They went at Game 2 with a committee approach on the mound and it just didn't work out. It will be a different story in Game 3, as they send out arguably their best starter in Walker Buehler. I feel really good about Buehler keeping this Rays offense in check. Note that prior to scoring 6 runs in Game 2, Tampa had gone 5 straight scoring 4 or fewer. I also don't think Rays starter Charlie Morton is going to have a great outing. Morton has pitched great in the postseason, but this Dodgers offense is a whole different beast. Give me Los Angeles -151! |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -140 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dodgers -140) We cashed the OVER 7.5 in Game 1, as the Dodgers won the game 8-3 for a combined score of 11. I thought about going with the OVER again in Game 2, but I like the value with Los Angeles a little more. The fact that Gonsolin is starting for the Dodgers after just pitching in relief in Game 7 of the NLCS on Sunday, will have most looking to back Blake Snell and the Rays. Gonsolin probably won't go deep, but LA has a Urias and May both waiting to take over. As good as Snell has been, no starter is safe against this Dodgers offense. It can be going great and then next thing you know they have scored 5 runs in the blink of an eye. Snell only gave up 3 runs in 2 starts vs the Astros, but did have a 6 walks and only 6 K's. In his start against the Yankees, he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits (3 HRs). I just trust the LA offense more. Give me the Dodgers -140! |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 7.5) I would give the slight edge to the Dodgers in Game 1, but I just don't trust Kershaw enough to lay that kind of juice with LA. I instead will be taking the OVER 7.5. Could Kershaw pitch great? Sure. But based on what we have seen in the playoffs, it's not a toss up. He was so good for 4 innings in his only start against the Braves and then things took a quick turn for the worse. When it was done he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 2-10 loss. You also can't trust that Dodgers pen. Key here is I think we are going to get a big game from that LA offense. The Dodgers can explode at any moment. We saw that in their 11-run first against the Braves in Game 3. I like Glasnow, but he hasn't been great in the playoffs. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. Guy also has a problem with serving up HRs (has allowed 17 in 15 starts). Give me the OVER 7.5! |
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10-08-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 9) We have played and cashed easily on the OVER in each of the last two games in this series. All 3 games in this series have seen a combined 12 runs scored. The OVER is now a perfect 5-0 in Yankees postseason games. It's also 4-1 in the Rays postseason games. Tampa Bay has scored 15 runs in the last two games of this series and have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 games overall. I see no reason not to expect another high scoring game today. Rays are starting an opener in Ryan Thompson, who has only made 1 start this season (24 relief appearances). He's got a mere 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his 26.1 innings of work. New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 starts. Montgomery hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 24, so there definitely could be some rust with him in this one. Montgomery made 1 start vs TB this season and didn't get out of the 1st innings, recording just 2 outs, while giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs). Give me the OVER 9! |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 9) We cashed the OVER 8 in yesterday's 7-5 Rays win. Each of the first two games in the series have both ended with 12 total runs scored. No way I'm backing off the OVER in Game 3. The Yankees had just 5 hits and had a postseason record 19 strikeouts. They still scored 5 runs. Thanks largely to Stanton, who hit two homers. Stanton has homered in every playoff game for New York. I'm expecting plenty more strikeouts for Yankees' hitters, but I also see them doing a lot more damage this time around against Charlie Morton. It was an off year for Morton. He started out slow, was hurt and really never hit his stride. He finished with a 4.74 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 9 starts. He had a 4.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his last 3. New York counters with Tanaka, who was rocked for 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in his start against the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. Tanaka also has had a down year with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He's got a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the OVER 9! |
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10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 8 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
40* YANKEES/RAYS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Over 8) The Yankees have played 3 playoff games and scored at least 9 runs in all 3 games. It's not like they have been exploiting bad starters. The have faced the soon to be AL Cy Young winner in Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. I know Rays starter Tyler Glasnow comes into having pitched well, I just don't know that it matters with the way the Yankees are swinging the bat. On top of that, this is a game the Rays could go off in. New York is sending out 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia, who has just 6 career starts to his name. While the future looks bright for Garcia, he posted a very mediocre 4.15 FIP and 4.65 xFIP. He also wasn't great in his last two starts, giving up 10 runs on 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 8! |
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09-30-20 | Yankees -115 v. Indians | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
50* YANKEES/INDIANS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Yankees -115) We cashed in on the Yankees with our free pick on Tuesday and it wasn't even close. New York won 12-3 as they made life absolutely miserable for the eventual AL Cy Young winner in Bieber. I expect more of the same from that offense in Game 2 against Indians starter Carlos Carrasco. On the flip side of this, New York will give the rock to veteran starter Masahiro Tanaka. While he had an up and down 2020 season with a modest 3.56 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 10 starts, he's been lights out in the postseason with a 1.76 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 8 starts. I only trust one team to score in this one and that's New York. Give me the Yankees -115! |
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09-30-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
40* MARLINS/CUBS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Cubs -1.5, +130) I like the Cubs to make easy work of the Marlins in Game 1 of their 3-game series. Chicago will have "The Professor" on the mound in Kyle Hendricks, who quietly had another great season. Hendricks posted a 2.88 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in 12 starts. He was sensational at home, where he had a 1.86 ERA and 0.756 WHIP in 6 starts. Miami will counter with Pablo Lopez, who finished up with a respectable 3.61 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 11 starts. However, he was a different guy on the road than he was at home. Lopez had a mere 4.91 ERA and 1.480 WHIP in 6 road starts. I look for the Cubs to get to him in this one. Give me Chicago -1.5 (+130)! |
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09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
40* REDS/BRAVES MLB (EARLY) MASSACRE (Under 7.5) I don't see a lot of offense in this one. The Reds were one of the worst teams in MLB history to make the playoffs with a mere .211 team batting average. They only averaged 3.5 runs with a .204 average on the road. With a guy like Trevor Bauer on the mound, I just think there's decent value with the total north of 7. Bauer was one of the best pitchers in the game. He finished up with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in 11 starts. Atlanta will have a pretty good starter of their own going in Max Fried, as he posted a strong 2.25 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 11 starts. Not to mention the Braves have a great bullpen. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -113 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
50* WHITE SOX/A'S MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (White Sox -113) I really like the White Sox as a small road favorite in Game 1 against the A's. Chicago didn't have the best finish to the season, going just 1-7 over their final 8. With that said, they did get their offense going in the final two games of the season, scoring 17 runs on 21 hits. I like them to carry over that offensive surge into this game against A's lefty starter Jesus Luzardo. Chicago has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this season. I also like that the White Sox have their ace in Lucas Giolito going. After a slow start Giolito finished with a strong 3.48 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. He also had a sensational 2.79 ERA in 5 road starts. Play the White Sox -113! |
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09-25-20 | Angels +187 v. Dodgers | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
40* ANGELS/DODGERS MLB NO-BRAINER (Angels +187) There's just too much value here with the Angels to not take a shot on them. To no surprise the Dodgers are a heavy favorite with Kershaw on the mound, but should they be. LA has absolutely nothing to play for in these final 3 games. No way is Kershaw going deep in this game. He's going to be on a short pitch count. Angels on the other hand still have a shot. They need to win out and have the Astros lose their final 3. As unlikely as it may be, there not just going to throw in the towel. They would never admit it, but knowing them losing could hurt Houston is definitely something that's playing in the back of the minds of the Dodgers. They hate the Astros. Give me the Angels +187! |
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09-23-20 | Cubs -195 v. Pirates | 1-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
40* CUBS/PIRATES MLB STEAMROLLER (Cubs -195) I'm laying the big juice with the Cubs today. Chicago has Kyle Hendricks on the mound against the soft-hitting Pirates. Hendricks has been dealing of late. He's got a 1.14 ERA and 0.718 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's pitched into or completed 8 innings in all 3. Trevor Williams will take the mound for Pittsburgh and there's not a lot to like with him. Williams has made 10 starts and the Pirates are 1-9 in those 10 outings. He's got a 6.70 ERA and 1.631 WHIP on the season. If that wasn't enough, Williams is 2-7 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.752 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago. Give me the Cubs -195! |
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09-23-20 | Brewers v. Reds -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
50* BREWERS/REDS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Reds -155) I've bet big on the Reds in each game of this series. We won rather easily in the opener, but were on the wrong end of a 1-run loss yesterday. I'm back on Cincinnati again and this might be the most I've liked them yet. Reds will have Trevor Bauer on the mound, who is definitely a Cy Young candidate this year. Bauer has a 1.80 ERA and 0.816 WHIP in 10 starts. He's not slowing down, as he owns a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. On the flip side of this the Brewers are turning to Adrian Houser, who has struggled to get much of anything going in 2020. Houser is 1-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in 10 starts. In his last 3 outings, he's got an ugly 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. He's also got a 6.23 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Reds. Give me Cincinnati -155! |
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09-22-20 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
40* CUBS/PIRATES MLB SHARP STAKE (Under 9) We cashed a free pick on the Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8.5 on Monday and see no reason not to take the UNDER again on Tuesday. You simply have two offenses that are not swinging the bats well. Pirates are scoring 2.4 runs/game and hitting .165 in their last 7 games. Cubs are a little better in their last 7 at 4.0 runs/game and .217 average, but that's far from impressive. Also, important to note that Pittsburgh is sending out lefty Steven Brault. Chicago is only scoring 3.0 runs/game and hitting .187 vs left-handed starters this season. Brault also owns a great 1.59 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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09-22-20 | Brewers v. Reds -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
50* BREWERS/REDS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Reds -145) We cashed a 50* play on Cincinnati yesterday and will fire back with another big bet on the Reds today. I see a lot of value with Cincinnati given they have one of their best starters going in Sonny Gray. Now most will be looking to fade Gray given how bad he was in his two starts prior to his recent trip the IL. Thing is, Gray was dealing with a bad back. He needed that time off. He made it pretty clear that he's feeling great going into this start. At less than -150, it's just too good a price to pass up. It's also not out of the question that the Reds offense could carry the load if Gray does struggle a bit. Cincinnati has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 and it's not like Milwaukee is sending out an ace. Brewers will turn to Brett Anderson, who has a 4.38 ERA nad 1.359 WHIP in 8 starts and is trending bad with a 5.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the Reds -145! |
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09-21-20 | Brewers v. Reds -123 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
50* BREWERS/REDS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Reds -123) I got no problem laying a short number here with the Reds at home. Cincinnati has gone 7-1 over their last 8 and now have a legit shot at playoff berth. I know the Brewers are also playing well, but not only are the Reds at home, they have a slight edge on the mound. Cincinnati will turn to Luis Castillo, who has a strong 3.19 ERA in 10 starts. He's got a 2.25 ERA in 4 home starts and a sensational 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Nothing fluky about his numbers either, as he owns a 2.61 FIP and 2.84 xFIP. Brandon Woodruff will start for Milwaukee and he's got a 3.45 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 10 starts. Solid numbers, but nothing special. Advanced numbers are pretty similar with a 3.46 FIP and 3.53 xFIP. Woodruff also owns a not so great 4.97 ERA in 5 career starts against the Reds. Give me Cincinnati -123! |
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09-18-20 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
50* RAYS/ORIOLES AL EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rays -1.5, -124) I love the Rays -1.5 (-124). Tampa Bay just has a massive edge on the mound in this one. The Rays will send out Tyler Glasnow against the Orioles Alex Cobb. Glasnow has a not so enticing 4.47 ERA, but he's been much better than that. He's got a very strong 1.187 WHIP for an ERA near 5.00. He also has a solid 3.52 FIP and really good 2.97 xFIP. Glasnow comes into this game in good form with a 3.44 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's also 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.809 WHIP in 5 starts vs Baltimore. As for Cobb, he got off to a great start this season. Cobb allowed just 4 earned runs over his first 3 starts. He's allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 and has a 7.62 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in his last 3 outings. More than 1 out of every 4 (27.6%) fly ball that Cobb allows leaves the park. Give me the Rays -1.5 (-124). |
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09-17-20 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
40* BLUE JAYS/YANKEES MLB STEAMROLLER (Yankees -1.5, -115) I got no problem backing the Yankees on the -1.5 run line. New York is prime form right now and will have a red-hot starter going in Masahiro Tanaka. Yankees followed up their 20 run outburst on Tuesday with 13 more in yesterday's win. They have now outscored the Blue Jays 33-8 in the first two games of this series. New York should have no problem securing their 8th straight win. Tanaka has a respectable 3.16 ERA in 8 starts and owns a strong 2.76 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Tanaka has also owned Toronto with a 2.87 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 21 career starts. The Yankees lineup will be up against Blue Jays' starter Chase Anderson, who has a 5.81 ERA in 7 starts, 9.00 ERA in 2 road starts and a 8.48 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the Yankees -1.5 (-115)! |
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09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
40* DBACKS/ANGELS MLB NO-BRAINER (Angels -1.5, +105) I got no problem backing LA on the -1.5 run line, especially at plus money. Arizona was able to secure a rare win of late with a 9-8 victory over the Angels last night. One that was a near epic loss, as they blew a 7-run lead before securing the win late. The Diamondbacks simply teed off on starter Julio Teheran, as he gave up 4 runs in just 2 innings before getting pulled. They aren't going to be so fortunate in this one, as the Angels send out their ace in Dylan Bundy. In 9 starts this season, Bundy has posted a sensational 2.48 ERA and 0.914 WHIP. It's no fluke, as he owns a similarly strong 2.67 FIP. Caleb Smith will go for the Dbacks and he's made 2 starts in 2020. He's given up just 2 runs in 6 innings, but that's a bit fluky. Smith has allowed a HR in each start and owns a 3.0 HR/9. He's also walked 7 guys in his 6 innings. He's due to blow up and he won't be in long, so we will get to see plenty of that awful Arizona bullpen. Give me the Angels -1.5 (+105)! |
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09-16-20 | Twins v. White Sox -142 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -142 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
50* TWINS/WHITE SOX *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (White Sox -142) I got no problem laying it with the White Sox at home against the Twins. This is a statement series for Chicago, as these two are fighting for the top spot in the AL Central. White Sox have taken the first two of the series and will have ace Lucas Giolito on the mound in game 3. Giolito has been one of the best starters in baseball in 2020. He's got a 3.43 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 10 starts. Keep in mind that he started off the season giving up 7 runs in his first start. His 2.75 FIP speaks volumes to how good he's been. Add that to the struggles of Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi and this is a no-brainer. Odorizzi has a 8.10 ERA in 3 starts. Big side note, those 3 starts all came against the Royals, who are awful offensively. Chicago has a loaded lineup and are in prime form. White Sox are hitting .311 as a team in their last 7, which has seen them score 6.3 runs/game. Give me the White Sox -142! |
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09-16-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* METS/PHILLIES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5) I just can't help myself with this one. There's a really high probability that we see this game finish UNDER the total of 7.5. Two of the NL's best will be on the mound in this one. Mets send out ace Jacob deGrom against former Met starter Zack Wheeler. Not a lot needs to be said about deGrom. The guy is in the mix for another Cy Young in 2020. He's 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 9 starts. He has not had a start this season where he's given up more than 2 earned runs and enters this one on a streak of 5 straight allowing 1 or less. Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 8 starts. He's in even better form than that right now, as he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also been much better at home than on the road with a 1.97 ERA in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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09-15-20 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
40* TWINS/WHITE SOX MLB SHARP STAKE (White Sox -125) I went against the White Sox on Monday and paid the price, but I'm confident we get that bet back here with an easy cash on Chicago tonight. I think the White Sox gained a ton of momentum with that thrilling 3-1 win last night and they look to have the edge on the mound in this one. Minnesota will turn to Randy Dobnak, who seem to have lost his touch. Dobnak has a 8.25 ERA and 1.917 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also has a mere 5.00 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 6 road starts this season. Dane Dunning will go for Chicago and he's been lights out. Dunning has a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 starts. He just threw 6 shutout innings in his most recent outing and should have an edge with this being his first start against the Twins. Give me the White Sox -125! |
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09-15-20 | Royals +100 v. Tigers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
50* ROYALS/TIGERS *AL CENTRAL PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Royals +100) I love this price and spot with Kansas City at even money on the road against the Tigers. Detroit will be starting Matt Boyd, who after a few good starts following his atrocious start to the season, returned to his ugly form in his most recent outing. In his last start, Boyd gave up 7 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) and 4 walks in just 3 innings of work. He's now 1-6 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 9 starts. He'll be up against a red-hot Royals offense that is averaging 7.3 runs/game during their current 6-game win streak. All we need is a decent start here from KC's Danny Duffy to cash a win. I know Duffy's numbers aren't great, but he is one of the Royals top starters and is coming off a strong out at Cleveland, holding the Indians scoreless over 5 2/3 innings. Give me the Royals +100! |
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09-14-20 | Twins -134 v. White Sox | 1-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
40* TWINS/WHITE SOX MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Twins -134) I see some decent value here with Minnesota in Monday's big series opener against the White Sox. Right now Chicago has a 1-game lead in the AL Central over the Twins. Both teams are also playing great coming into the series. White Sox have won 8 of 9 and Minnesota is 10-2 in their last 12. Some might think Chicago has the edge on the mound given the stats. White Sox' Dylan Cease has a 3.33 ERA in 9 starts and Minnesota's Jose Berrios has a 4.40 ERA in 9 starts. Thing is the advanced metrics favor Berrios. Cease owns an awful 5.95 FIP, where Berrios has a 4.06 FIP. Berrios is also trending up with a 3.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. On top of all that, Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 16 career starts against the White Sox. Cease is 0-2 with a 16.71 ERA and 3.000 WHIP in 2 starts against the Twins. Give me Minnesota -134! |
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09-13-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
40* INDIANS/TWINS MLB SLAUGHTER (Under 8.5) Easy play on the UNDER 8.5 in Sunday's AL Central showdown between the Indians and Twins. Getting to 9 runs will be a challenge with the two guys starting in this one. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie has a 2.57 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over 4 starts, while Minnesota's Michael Pineda has been dominant in two starts back from his suspension with a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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09-11-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
50* TIGERS/WHITE SOX MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (White Sox -1.5, -135) I got no problem play Chicago on the -1.5 run line, as the White Sox have a massive edge on the mound in this one. Chicago will send out one of the best starters in baseball in Lucas Giolito, who has just got better as the season as went on. Giolito has a 2.25 ERA and 0.550 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also owns a sensational 2.72 FIP and 2.97 xFIP in 2020. Detroit will send out Casey Mize, who has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 4 starts. Mize is one of the Tigers top prospects, but simply has not figured it out at the big league level. He doesn't pitch deep in games either. Tigers have a terrible bullpen and are up against a good White Sox lineup that comes in averaging 6.3 runs/game over their last 7. Give me Chicago -1.5 (-135)! |
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09-11-20 | Braves -141 v. Nationals | 7-8 | Loss | -141 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
40* BRAVES/NATIONALS MLB STEAMROLLER (Braves -141) I got no problem laying a little juice with Atlanta in Friday's game against division rival Washington. The Braves are riding a huge wave of momentum right now. After putting up a ridiculous 29 runs in Wednesday's finale against the Marlins, they rallied from and early 5-0 deficit to beat the Nationals 7-6 on Thursday. Braves are averaging 8.75 runs/game over their last 12 and they had a game where they were shutout in those 12. That offense will be up against Nationals' starer Erick Fedde, who has a 6.95 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 5 starts. Those numbers don't even do justice, as Fedde has an even worse 7.14 FIP. He's giving up 2.23 HR/9 and has an atrocious 8.2 K%. Josh Tomlin will go for Atlanta and while his numbers as a starter aren't great (5.19 ERA, 1.327 WHIP), he was great in his last start, giving up just 1 run in 6 innings against these Nationals. He also owns a 3.77 ERA on the season and a similar 3.91 FIP. Give me Washington -141! |
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09-10-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
50* DODGERS/DBACKS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dodgers -1.5, -130) We cashed another -1.5 run line play on the Dodgers last night and will double-down with the same exact 50* play on them Thursday. We are getting a much better price and I'm not sure why. You have the best offense in baseball going up against one of the worst starters of 2020 in Madison Bumgarner. You have to forget what Bumgarner has done in the past and look at what he is right now. He has a 8.44 ERA in 5 starts (all 5 losses) and shockingly his FIP is even worse at 9.08. He's only got a .222 BABIP so it's not like he's unlucky there. He also has a mere 15 K% and is allowing 3.8 HR/9. Dustin May isn't as good as his 2.88 ERA (4.53 FIP) and might be why we are getting a better price, but you have to factor in the opponent. No one is playing as bad as Arizona right now. This is also May's first start against Arizona, so that should benefit him some. Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-130)! |
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09-09-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
50* DODGERS/DBACKS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dodgers -1.5, -165) We came up painfully short of cashing a winner on the Dodgers -1.5 with yesterday's free pick. After an ugly start, LA tied it up at 6-6 and took a 10-6 lead in the Top of the 10th. Only to give up 3 runs in the bottom half of the inning and win by 1. Dodgers are still a more profitable team on the RL compared to the ML this season. I'm confident they get the 2+ run win tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw is completely locked in right now. In his last 4 starts, he's allowed just 2 runs on 10 hits with a 29/5 K/BB ratio over 26 innings. Diamondbacks are playing like the worst team in the league of late, as they are just 2-17 over their last 19 games. Taylor Clarke will start for Arizona. He's got an impressive 2.96 ERA in 9 appearances (3 starts), but owns an ugly 4.74 FIP. He's also been very fortunate with a 1.94 BABIP. Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-165)! |
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09-09-20 | Reds v. Cubs UNDER 6.5 | 3-0 | Win | 102 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
40* REDS/CUBS MLB SHARP STAKE (UNDER 6.5) You don't see many totals this low in baseball anymore, but the low number is not going to scare me away from what I feel is a strong play. I just don't see much offense at all from either side in Wednesday's game between the Cubs and Reds. Two of the best starters in baseball will be facing off against each other. Cubs send out Yu Darvish, who has to be the frontrunner right now for NL Cy Young. Reds counter with Trevor Bauer. Darvish has an NL best 1.44 ERA and Bauer is No. 4 at 2.05. Bauer on the other hand has a NL best 0.86 WHIp and Darvish is T-2nd at 0.88. These two just faced off against each other a couple weeks ago and the final score was 3-0. With the wind blowing in close to 15 mph at Wrigley and cooler than normal temps for September, I see a very similar type of score in this one. Give me the UNDER 6.5! |
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09-08-20 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
50* ROCKIES/PADRES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Padres -1.5, -115) I'm all about laying the -1.5 run line with the Padres on Tuesday. San Diego will have recently acquired starter Mike Clevinger on the mound. Padres lost his first start with the team, but it wasn't his fault. Clevinger allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings at Angels. He's now got a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts. He'll be facing a Rockies team that doesn't hit nearly as well on the road as they do at home. Not to mention they were just shutout on Monday. Colorado will turn to Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has a 5.00 ERA in 3 appearances, 1 start. He gave up 3 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) in his only start. He also has a much worse 6.04 FIP. San Diego's lineup should feast in this one. Give me the Padres -1.5 (-115)! |
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09-08-20 | Orioles v. Mets -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
40* ORIOLES/METS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Mets -1.5, +112) I see some decent value here with New York. With John Means starting for the Orioles, there's a pretty high probability that the Mets win this one going away. Means has easily been the worst pitcher for Baltimore in 2020. Guy has a 8.10 ERA in 6 starts and the advanced metrics are equally as bad with a 8.05 FIP. He's also given up 2 home runs in each of his last 3 starts. I know the overall numbers aren't great for Mets' starter Michael Wacha, but the advanced numbers are much better. Wacha has a 7.20 ERA and yet a mere 4.40 FIP and 4.25 xFIP. He just needs to be decent in this start. Give me the Mets -1.5 (+112) |
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09-07-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -137 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
50* YANKEES/BLUE JAYS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Blue Jays -137) Easy play here on Toronto at less than a -150 favorite with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound. I just feel like the Yankees are getting way too much respect here. Ryu has been one of the best pitchers of 2020. He's got a 2.93 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 8 starts, 6 of which have resulted in Toronto wins. New York will have Jordan Montgomery going, who has a 5.76 ERA in 6 starts, 6.75 ERA in his last 3 and a 11.25 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 1 road start. With the way the ball flies out of Sahlen Field, this has nightmare written all over it for Montgomery. Give me the Blue Jays -137! |
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09-07-20 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/TWINS MLB SHARP STAKE (Twins -1.5, -105) I'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line with Minnesota against Detroit. No reason to overthink this one. Twins are 16-5 at home this season and have won 5 of their last 6 overall. Tigers will have Michael Fulmer on the mound, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in 6 starts. Twins will turn to Michael Pineda, who is making his second start since returning from suspension. Pineda looked good in his first outing, limiting a good White Sox offense to just 2 runs in 6 innings. Give me the Twins -1.5 (-105)! |
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09-06-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -132 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
40* DBACKS/GIANTS MLB SHARP STAKE (Giants -132) I really like the value we are getting with San Francisco at home against Arizona. The numbers suggest that the Giants have a much higher chance of winning this game than the line would suggest. For starters, these are two teams headed in different directions. Arizona has all but thrown in the towel on the season and it's reflected in their play. The Dbacks are 2-14 in their last 16. Giants are just 19-21, but are trending up and with all the teams that make the playoffs they are right there in the mix. Arizona will also have a struggling Alex Young on the mound. Young has a 4.42 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 4 starts. That has blossomed to 5.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP on the road (2 starts). He's also got a 5.57 FIP, so he's actually been a bit lucky despite the poor numbers. Give me Johnny Cueto and the Giants -132! |
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09-06-20 | White Sox -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
50* WHITE SOX/ROYALS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (White Sox -1.5, -135) This is a no-brainer for me. Chicago is 8-3 over their last 11 games and have won the first 3 of this 4-game series. The White Sox offense just keeps putting up big numbers. They have score 23 runs in the series. With the wind blowing at Kauffman Stadium at close to 20 mph, I look for Chicago to put up runs in bunches with all that home run power they got. Especially with the struggling Matt Harvey on the mound for KC. Harvey has a 15.43 ERA in 7 starts. The Royals will struggle to get going against Dallas Keuchel. While not the Cy Young pitcher of the past, Keuchel has been rock solid with a 2.42 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 8 starts. Give me the White Sox -135! |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -133 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
40* RANGERS/MARINERS MLB NO-BRAINER (Mariners -133) I got no problem playing on Seattle as a relatively small home favorite against the Rangers. I see a big time edge on the mound for the Mariners in this one, as they send out talented youngster Justus Sheffield against the struggling veteran Kyle Gibson. Sheffield struggled in his first two starts of 2020, then had a 3-start stretch where he allowed just 2 ER in 18 innings of work. That strong run ended in his last outing at LA. I like him to bounce back here against a bad Rangers offense. He's got a 2.70 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 3 home starts and a strong 2.94 FIP. Gibson is 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 7 starts. Texas has won just 1 of those 7 starts. Gibson has a 9.37 ERA in his last 3 starts, 7.56 ERA in 3 division outings and an ugly 6.01 FIP, which tells me we can keep expecting poor results. Give me the Mariners -133! |
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09-05-20 | Brewers v. Indians -113 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
40* BREWERS/INDIANS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Indians -113) No way I'm passing up on the Indians at basically a pick'em at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee's been a major disappointment in 2020. I know they come in 2nd in the NL Central at 18-19, but they have a -30 run differential. Indians are 23-15 with a +47 run differential. Cleveland will have Aaron Civale on the mound. I think Civale gets overshadowed a bit because of all the great arms on Cleveland's staff. Thing is his 1.2 WAR is second only to Shane Bieber on that staff. He's got a strong 3.07 FIP, he doesn't let many leave the park, doesn't walk anyone and has a respectable 8.41 K/9. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers, who is one of those guys that is good but not great. He has a 3.67 ERA in 8 starts. However, he is coming off a poor outing at St Louis, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings. I think those struggles carry over to this start. Give me the Indians -113! |
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09-05-20 | Phillies v. Mets -140 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
40* PHILLIES/METS MLB STEAMROLLER (Mets -140) This is just too good a price to pass up on the Mets at home against the Phillies. New York will have a clear edge on the mound in this one. Mets send out Seth Lugo, while Philadelphia turns to Spencer Howard. Lugo has been rock solid in his first two starts, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with 12 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. His FIP is 2.67, so there's every reason to expect this to keep up. Howard has a 5.40 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in 4 starts. He's only got 15 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings, as he's producing a mere 18.5 K%. He also has a 6.50 FIP and is giving up 2.4 HR/9. Give me the Mets -140! |
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09-04-20 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
40* CARDINALS/CUBS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 8) I love the UNDER 8 in Friday's big NL Central rivalry game between the Cubs and Cardinals. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. St Louis will send out Jack Flaherty, who has a 1.93 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in 4 starts. Chicago will counter with Yu Darvish, who is even better with a 1.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 7 starts. Flaherty has a 2.84 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cubs. Darvish has held the Cardinals two 3 or fewer runs in at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts against them. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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09-04-20 | White Sox -159 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* ROYALS/WHITE SOX MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (White Sox -159) I will gladly lay the juice with the White Sox in Friday's matchup against the Royals. Chicago is without question the better team. They put up 11 runs on 13 hits last night against the Royals. That offense is loaded with talent and now they get to face the struggling Brady Singer. Who is 1-3 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 7 starts. On the flip side of this, Chicago will send out Dane Dunning, who has a solid 2.89 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his first two starts. He's pitched 9 1/3 innings and has racked up an impressive 14/2 K/BB ratio. His last start was against these same Royals and he threw 5 shutout innings in a 5-2 win. Give me the White Sox -159! |
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09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros -155 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
40* ASTROS/RANGERS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Astros -155) I will lay it with the Astros at home against the Rangers. I could see some people being tempted to take Texas with Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn has some impressive numbers, as he comes in 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.916 WHIP in 8 starts. Thing is Lynn has been a bit fortunate to post the numbers he has. His FIP is way back at 3.54 and his xFIP is sitting at 4.16. He's also managed to give up just 7 earned runs in his last 3 starts, despite giving up 4 home runs. Those numbers suggest regression and the Astros offense has been better of late. Houston also has one of the best starters in baseball going in veteran Zack Greinke. In 7 starts, Greinke has posted a 2.68 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. Nothing fluky about that, as he has an even better 2.58 FIP. Greinke has also owned the Rangers with a 2.96 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Texas also not a great offensive team, having scored 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 10. Give me the Astros -155! |
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09-02-20 | Tigers +157 v. Brewers | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/BREWERS MLB STEAMROLLER (Tigers +157) This is just too good a price to pass up on Detroit with not only how well the Tigers are playing, but also with how bad Milwaukee has been playing. Detroit won the series opener 12-1 on Tuesday and have now won 6 straight. Their pitching has been outstanding during this 6-game win streak. In those 6 games, they have held their opponents to 2 or fewer runs 5 times. They figure to have a good shot of keeping that streak going with Spencer Turnbull on the mound. Turnbull has been the Tigers best starter in 2020 with a 2.97 ERA in 6 starts. He's also yet to give up a HR this season. Adrian Houser goes for Milwaukee and he's 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 6 starts. His 5.24 FIP suggests he's been slightly worse than what the numbers show. He's also 0-2 with a 8.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in 2 home starts. Give me the Tigers +157! |
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09-02-20 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
50* CUBS/PIRATES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cubs -1.5) I really like the spot and price with Chicago on the -1.5 (-113) run line. I just feel that if this game goes as it should (based on the numbers), there's a high probability the Cubs win here by a wide margin. Kyle Hendricks will start for Chicago. He's been all over the place since throwing that complete game shutout in the Cubs opener. However, he's got a strong 3.27 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Pirates. We also know the talent is there. Key here is that even if he struggles, we should get enough from the Cubs offense to make up for it. Chicago's offense has really come to life of late. They put up 18 runs in their last 2 and have scored 5 or more in 5 of their last 6. Joe Musgrove will start for Pittsburgh. He's been awful in 2020 with a 6.75 ERA in 3 starts. There's nothing fluky about it either, as he owns a 6.83 FIP. He's given up 2.45 HR/9. Give me the Cubs -1.5 (-113)! |
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09-02-20 | Mets v. Orioles OVER 10 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
40* METS/ORIOLES MLB SHARP STAKE (OVER 10) The numbers suggest there's a high probability that we will see more than 10 runs in this matchup. You got two really bad starters going in Baltimore's John Means and New York's Michael Wacha. You also got an ideal day for hitting. Wind will be blowing out to center at close to 10 mph, humidity is expected to be around 70% and a heat index of 95+. Means has been Baltimore's worst pitcher (starter or reliever) in terms of WAR (-0.3). There's nothing fluky about his 8.59 ERA, as his FIP comes in at 7.99. He's given up a staggering 3.68 home runs/9 innings and he's got a fortunate .233 BABIP. Wacha has a 7.41 ERA and while his 4.50 FIP suggests he's not that bad, that's still not very good. He too has struggled to keep it in the park with a 2.2 HR/9. You also have to factor in how well Orioles are swinging the bat right now. Give me the OVER 10! |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
40* DBACKS/DODGERS MLB STEAMROLLER (Dodgers -1.5, -125) At this point I might just bet the Dodgers -1.5 run line the rest of the way. LA is so much better than the next best team it's not even funny. Dodgers are 26-10 with a +90 run differential. The next best run differential is the White Sox at +45. Of their 26 wins, 22 have come by at least 2 runs. Not only is their pitching great, but teams just can't keep pace offensively with this loaded LA lineup. Dodgersare scoring 5.7 runs/game and should hit that mark here against Arizona's Alex Young. Julio Urias goes for the Dodgers. He's had an up and down season, but has pitched well at home with a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. Diamondbacks are also just 2-7 vs left-handed starters this season. In those 9 games they are only averaging 2.9 runs/game. Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-125)! |
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09-01-20 | Braves -1.5 v. Red Sox | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
40* BRAVES/RED SOX MLB NO-BRAINER (Braves -1.5, -125) I cashed in a 50* Top Play on the Braves -1.5 in Monday's 6-3 win over the Red Sox and will fire right back with Atlanta -1.5 on Tuesday. I really liked the Braves yesterday coming off a 12-run 15-hit win on Sunday. The offense had another 12 hits in their 6-run showing yesterday. That offense figures to stay hot against a horrible Red Sox pitching staff. Boston will send out Ryan Weber before turning it over to their awful bullpen. Weber has an 6.00 ERA in 8 appearances (3 starts) and an even worse 6.84 FIP. He's got the worst WAR of any Red Sox pitcher. Atlanta will send out talented youngster Ian Anderson. He allowed just 1 run on 1 hit in 6 innings in his MLB debut against the Yankees last week. Even if he's not quite as good, I like him to keep the Red Sox in check. Give me the Braves -1.5 (-125)! |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
50* CARDINALS/REDS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Reds -147) I jumped all over the Reds in this one, as I just felt this was too good a price to pass up with Sonny Gray on the mound. Guy has been one of the best starters in the game going back to last season. He's 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. He's got an even better 1.07 ERA and 0.750 WHIP at home, where he's a perfect 4-0 in 4 starts. Cardinals will send out Kwang-Hyun Kim. He's got an eye-popping 0.57 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in 3 starts. I just don't think it will last. His FIP 3.79 and his xFIP is 5.02, which is a clear sign he's fortunate to have the ERA he does. Opponents also have a mere .189 BABIP against him. That's not going to last. Give me the Reds -147! |
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08-31-20 | White Sox -131 v. Twins | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
40* WHITE SOX/TWINS MLB STEAMROLLER (White Sox -131) I'm jumping on the Lucas Giolito bandwagon, especially at this price. I know the Twins have been great at home and all that, but they come in struggling. They have lost 5 straight and were just swept in a 3-game series at Detroit. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 straight games. Giolito hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts and is coming off that no-hitter in his last outing. Chicago is also swinging a hot bat with 31 runs in their last 5 games. Give me the White Sox -131! |
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08-31-20 | Braves -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
50* BRAVES/RED SOX MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Braves -1.5, -123) Atlanta should have no problem securing a win by at least 2 runs in Monday's game against the Red Sox. The Braves got their offense going in yesterday's 12-10 win. They are primed to keep it going against Boston's Colten Brewer (5.22 ERA and 1.838 WHIP in 3 starts). On the flip side of this, Atlanta gives the rock to the red-hot Max Fried. He's made 7 starts and has a sensational 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. Give me the Braves -1.5 (-123)! |
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08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 2-7 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
40* INDIANS/CARDINALS MLB NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I just feel that these two teams are going to have a hard time scoring runs with the talent that each team will send out to the mound. Indians Aaron Civale has a 3.15 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 6 starts. Big positive here is he's got an even better 2.89 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 4 road starts this season. Adam Wainwright will go for St Louis. He's got a 2.88 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 4 starts. He also owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in 2 day starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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08-30-20 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
50* PIRATES/BREWERS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Brewers -1.5, -115) I'm firing right back with an even bigger play on Milwaukee Sunday. I love the Brewers to win here by at least 2 runs. Pirates starter Steven Brault has a 2.40 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 5 starts, but was torched in his last outing and those numbers are a bit misleading. He's had some poor showings out of the pen as well. He's got a 6.00 ERA on the road. Brandon Woodruff goes for Milwaukee and he's got a strong 3.19 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 7 starts. He was dominant in an earlier start against the Pirates, limiting them to just 1 hit with 10 K's in 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Give me the Brewers -1.5 (-115)! |
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08-29-20 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 3-16 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
40* MARINERS/ANGELS LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Under 8.5) I really like the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's late action between the Angels and Mariners. Great pitching matchup in this one, which is going to make it tough for these two to combine for 9 or more. Mariners will send out Justus Sheffield, who is one of the top young arms in the game. He had a rough first two starts, but has completely turned it around. He's got a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Dylan Bundy will go for the Angels. He's got a sensational 2.58 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in 6 starts. Bundy also owns a strong 2.45 ERA and 0.716 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Mariners. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-29-20 | Padres v. Rockies -105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
100* PADRES/ROCKIES NL WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rockies -105) I love this spot and price we are getting the Rockies at home on Saturday. I know the Padres are playing well right now, but I'm not so sure they can slug their way to a win in this one. San Diego is going to have to score a bunch to make a game of it. I don't see rookie starter Adrian Morejon having a great outing. He's got a 5.78 ERA in 2 starts (yet to pitch more than 3 innings in a start). This will be his first career start at Coors Field. Rockies counter with Antonio Senzatela. He's had a bit of a mixed bag in 2020. He's 3-1 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.101 WHIP. He's really been solid in 4 of his 6 outings. He's also 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.992 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Padres. Give me Colorado -105! |
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08-29-20 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* PIRATES/BREWERS MLB STEAMROLLER (Brewers -1.5, +115) I like the value here with Milwaukee on the -1.5 run line. The Brewers won the series opener Friday 9-1. It was breakout game for the offense, which had only managed 12 runs in their last 5 games combined. Pirates had that doubleheader sweep of Cardinals on Thursday, but are now in their 3rd straight road series and I just don't think they got much in the tank. They also got a struggling starting going in J.T. Brubaker. He's made 3 starts and has a 7.20 ERA and 1.700 WHIP. This will be his first road start of his career. Brewers will have Brett Anderson on the mound. He's coming into this one in prime form with a 2.76 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in his last 3 starts. With the way the Pirates are swinging the bat (10 runs in their last 5 games), good chance he keeps it rolling. Give me the Brewers -1.5 (+115)! |
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08-29-20 | Royals v. White Sox -159 | 9-6 | Loss | -159 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
40* ROYALS/WHITE SOX MLB VEGAS INSIDER (White Sox -159) We came up painfully short of a cashing a winner on the Royals last night. We will try to get that back here with a play on Chicago in Game 2 of this series. I liked KC yesterday with Duffy on the mound against this strong White Sox offense. It's a different story in this one with Brady Singer starting for the Royals. He's 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 6 starts. He's only averaging 4.9 innings/start and is allowing 2.1 home runs/start. With the wind blowing out at close to 15 mph to right field, I could see Chicago scoring a ton. Royals on the other hand will be up against the red-hot Dylan Cease, who as a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts. Cease has a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.59 ERA in 2 home starts this season. Give me the White Sox -159! |
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08-28-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
40* GIANTS/DBACKS MLB STEAMROLLER (Diamondbacks -1.5, +110) I really like the Diamondbacks to snap out of their recent funk with an easy home win over the Giants. For one, Arizona is catching San Francisco in a tough spot, as the Giants just played a doubleheader against the Dodgers on Thursday. One in which they failed to score a single run in either game. There's a good chance the offensive woes carry over to this game, as they will be up against Arizona's Zac Gallen. He's been one of the best pitchers of 2020 to this point. Gallen has a 2.25 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 6 starts. He's got an even better 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Arizona has won all 3 of his home starts. Give me the Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)! |
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08-28-20 | Indians -127 v. Cardinals | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
50* INDIANS/CARDINALS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indians -127) I'll gladly lay the small juice with Cleveland, as they get ready to open up a 3-game series at St Louis. Indians will have youngster Triston McKenzie on the mound for his second career start. His debut couldn't have gone much better, as he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits and struck out 10 over 6 innings. Cardinals will counter with Daniel Poncedeleon, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 3 starts. He's yet to complete 5 innings in a start, has allowed a home run in all 3 starts and has major control problems with 10 walks in 11 2/3 innings of work. Give me the Indians -127! |
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08-28-20 | Royals +134 v. White Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
40* ROYALS/WHITE SOX MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Royals +134) Great price here with Kansas City as a road dog against the White Sox. Royals will have one of their best starters going in Danny Duffy, who has a solid 3.99 ERA and sensational 0.989 WHIP in 6 starts. In Duffy's last 3 starts against Chicago, he's allowed just 2 runs over 18 2/3 innings with 20 strikeouts. White Sox will send out one of their worst starters in Reynaldo Lopez. He's shown nothing in 2 starts to make you think he's going to pitch well. Lopez has give up 6 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 4 innings of work. He's also got an ugly 5.19 ERA in 12 career starts against Kansas City. Give me the Royals +134! |
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08-26-20 | Pirates v. White Sox -1.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
40* PIRATES/WHITE SOX MLB NO-BRAINER (White Sox -1.5, -105) I cashed in on the White Sox -1.5 last night and won easy, as Lucas Giolito tossed a no-hitter. It doesn't figure to get any better for Detroit on Wednesday. Chicago will send out Dallas Keuchel, who has been better than expected in 2020. Keuchel has a 2.65 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in 6 starts. Tigers are also only averaging 3.1 runs/game and hitting .199 as a team on the road this season (2-9 record). White Sox only managed 4 runs yesterday, which is a pretty sub-par day given how they have been rolling at the plate. Chicago is averaging 10+ hits a game over their 9 games. Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has a 5.40 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 3 road starts. Keep in mind the wind will be blowing out to left at close to 15 mph with the heat index in the upper 90's. Give me the White Sox -1.5 (-105)! |
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08-25-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
50* ROYALS/CARDINALS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1.5, -106) Easy play for me on the Cardinals -1.5. I just feel like there's a good chance St Louis wins this game by multiple runs. Cardinals will have veteran Adam Wainwright on the mound and he's really performed well with all the rest he's been getting in this wacky 2020 season. Wainwright has a 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 3 starts. He's also up against a pretty weak KC offense. Royals on the other hand send out Matt Harvey. He made his 2020 debut last week at home against the Reds and it wasn't pretty. Harvey gave up 3 runs on 4 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks in 3 innings. Give me the Cardinals -1.5 (-106) |
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08-25-20 | Pirates v. White Sox -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
40* WHITE SOX/PIRATES MLB STEAMROLLER (White Sox -1.5, -113) I got no problem laying the -1.5 run line with the White Sox. Chicago will have Lucas Giolito on the mound. Giolito is trending in the right direction. He's got a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also coming off a gem, as he struckout 13 over 7 scoreless in his last outing. Steven Brault has a 0.00 ERA in 4 starts, but he's only averaged 3 innings/start. That doesn't show his 1 relief appearance, where he gave up 4 runs without recording an out. Guy has a 4.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his career. White Sox will easily be the best lineup he's faced and that Chicago offense has been putting up some big numbers of late. White Sox have scored 7 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games. Give me the White Sox -1.5! |
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08-25-20 | Twins v. Indians -168 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* TWINS/INDIANS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Indians -168) I got no problem laying the juice with Cleveland. The Indians will have Shane Bieber on the mound, who is a legit Cy-Young contender with his start to the season. Bieber has a 1.11 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in 6 starts. Cleveland has won all 6 of his starts and he's yet to allow a run at home. Rich Hill will go for the Twins. He wasn't great in his return from the DL, allowing 4 runs in 2 2/3 innings. I look for him to struggle here. Indians were held to 2 runs yesterday, but should have scored more. They had 12 hits and left 11 guys on base. Prior to that game they had scored 4 or more in 6 of their previous 7 games. Give me the Indians -168! |
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08-24-20 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 4-11 | Win | 117 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
40* ANGELS/ASTROS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Astros -1.5, +117) I'm jumping on the Astros -1.5 (+117), as they return home from their road trip to host the Angels. Houston is 10-4 at home and are outscoring opponents by 1-9 runs/game at home. The Angels are 4-11 on the road. LA is also just 2-9 overall in their last 11. Astros also have a big edge on the mound in this one. Houston will turn to Framber Valdez, who has a 1.80 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 4 starts. Patrick Sandoval will go for the Angels and he's 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in 4 starts. Sandoval made two starts against Houston last year and posted a 5.69 ERA and 1.422 WHIP. Give me the Astros -1.5 (+117)! |
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08-24-20 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
40* TWINS/INDIANS MLB SHARP MONEY (Under 8.5) I will take my chances with the UNDER 8.5, as we got a big time pitching matchup going down in Cleveland with the Indians Aaron Civale taking on the Twins Kenta Maeda. Civale has a 2.91 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 5 starts. His great pitching combined with the Indians lackluster offense has resulted in the UNDER cashing in 4 of his 5 starts. Maeda has been equally impressive for Minnesota, as he has a 2.27 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in 5 starts. He was spectacular in his last outing, allowing just 1 run on 1 hit with 12 K's in 8 innings against the Brewers. Also important to note, both teams have strong bullpens to keep this thing in check late. Twins relievers own a 3.44 ERA and 1.203 WHIP, while Cleveland's pen has a 2.73 ERA and 1.039 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-23-20 | Angels v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
50* ANGELS/A'S AL WEST PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 9) I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 between the A's and Angels. I think we are getting some value with the number here as we got a couple of strong starters coming off a poor start last time out. Dylan Bundy gave up 4 runs in 4 innings against the Giants, while Frankie Montas allowed 9 runs in just 1 2/3 innings at Arizona. Bundy still owns a stellar 2.47 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 5 starts overall and Montas has a sensational 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 3 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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08-23-20 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
40* BREWERS/PIRATES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Brewers -1.5, +100) This is a great price to back Milwaukee on the -1.5 run line Sunday. Brewers are going to be 100% locked in to avoid getting swept by a pathetic Pirates team and they have just the guy on the mound to right the ship. Milwaukee will send out Corbin Burns, who has a strong 2.16 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in two starts. Most recently holding the Twins to just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings. Pirates will have J.T. Brubaker on the mound. Brubaker will be making his third career start. The first two did not go well, as he has a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. He's also yet to pitch past the 3rd inning, which is a massive concern given the Pirates poor bullpen (5.65 ERA on the season). Give me the Brewers -1.5 (+100)! |
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08-22-20 | Tigers v. Indians -165 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/INDIANS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Indians -165) I'm going after my money with Cleveland on Saturday. The Indians cost me big last night. Plutko picked the perfect time to have his worst start. Regardless of how that went, I like the Indians at this price. Big reason for that is who is starting for Detroit. The Tigers will throw out Matt Boyd for another start. It hasn't been pretty. Boyd is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA and 1.885 WHIP in 5 starts. He's lucky he only gave up 3 runs in 4 innings in his last start, as he served up 3 solo homers. That's now 7 HR's given up in his last 3 starts. Cleveland could start just about anybody and I would feel good about them winning. You might not have heard of starter Triston McKenzie, but he's a prospect with some potential. He might not go long, but that's not a problem. Indians have one of the best bullpens in the game. Give me Cleveland -165! |
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08-22-20 | Twins -152 v. Royals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
50* TWINS/ROYALS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Twins -152) This is a no-brainer for me. The Twins have one of the best kept secrets in baseball on the mound for this one. Randy Dobnak has been Cy Young worthy to start out the season. He's 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 5 starts. While he's shutting down the Royals anemic offense, Minnesota's offense should tee off against the Royals Brady Singer. In 5 starts, Singer has a 4.56 ERA and 1.325 WHIP. He's in poor formn with a 5.17 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in his last 3 starts. With wind blowing out to left, it could get ugly. Give me the Twins -152! |
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08-22-20 | Angels v. A's -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
40* ANGELS/A'S AFTERNOON CASH COW (A's -145) This is a great price to be catching the A's at home. These two teams are headed in different directions. Going into Friday's game the Angels were 1-7 over their last 8. Oakland had won 6 of 8. Key here is the edge on the mound. The A's will turn to Chris Bassitt. He's got a 2.93 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 5 starts. He's been exceptional at the Coliseum, posting a 0.82 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 2 starts. LA will counter with Griffin Canning. He's 0-3 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 5 starts. While his ERA is slightly lower on the road at 4.32. His WHIP is way up there at 1.799. He's also entering in poor form with a 5.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. Give me the A's -145! |
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08-21-20 | Astros +101 v. Padres | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
40* ASTROS/PADRES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Astros +101) I've made a lot of money on Houston of late, including last night as a +118 dog. Astros come in having won 8 straight. At this point, I'm going to keep backing them until they lose, especially when they are priced at basically a pick'em. Houston will send out Lance McCullers, who has a not so pretty 5.47 ERA in 5 starts. However, he's trending in the right direction. He's given up just 2 runs on 4 hits with 12 strikeouts over his last 2 starts (12 2/3 innings). Give me the Astros +101! |
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08-21-20 | Tigers v. Indians -177 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -177 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
50* TIGERS/INDIANS MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indians -177) I got no problem laying the big juice with Cleveland against the Tigers. Indians come in having won 6 straight and will have a clear edge on the mound in this one. Cleveland gives the rock to Adam Plutko, who has a strong 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2 home starts. He'll be facing a Tigers offense that is averaging just 2.9 runs/game over their last 7 contests. Detroit will also have struggling starter Michael Fulmer on the mound. Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.038 WHIP in 3 starts. He's almost given up as many home runs (5) as he has strikeout (6) on the season. Give me the Indians -177! |
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08-21-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 9 | 6-5 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
40* BLUE JAYS/RAYS MLB STEAMROLLER (Under 9) I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 in Friday's AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. I just think that Toronto plays in such a hitter-friendly home park that there's going to be value on the UNDER when they hit the road. Note the Blue Jays are scoring 4.6 runs/game and hitting .252 on the season, yet are only averaging 3.9 runs/game with a .231 average on the road. Blue Jays starter, Matt Shoemaker, is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays. Two of those coming this season. Ryan Yarbrough will start for Tampa Bay and he's also made 2 starts against the Blue Jays. He's thrown 8 1/3 innings and has not allowed a run. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
100* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cardinals and Reds. Cincinnati will have ace Sonny Gray on the mound, who is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 5 starts. Gray also owns a sensational 1.08 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 3 career starts (all last season) against the Cardinals. St. Louis will turn to veteran Adam Wainwright. While he's only made 2 starts, he's been exceptional in both, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He just hasn't been able to start cause the Cardinals missed so many games. I think more rest definitely helps him perform better at this stage of his career. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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08-20-20 | Astros +118 v. Rockies | 10-8 | Win | 118 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
40* ASTROS/ROCKIES MLB SHARP MONEY PLAY (Astros +118) No way I'm passing up the Astros as a dog right now. Houston is absoluting rolling right now. They come into this one having won 7 straight. After winning a bunch of games behind their stellar pitching staff, Astros offense delivered the knockout punch on Wednesday with 13 runs on 20 hits. I know Rockies starter German Marquez has been pretty good to start out 2020, but 4 of the 5 teams he's faced rank in the bottom 10 in team batting average. Marquez faced Houston twice last year and gave up 9 runs on 16 hits in 11 innings of work. Give me the Astros +118! |
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08-20-20 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
40* PHILLIES/BLUE JAYS EARLY BIRD NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5) I don't care that this is only a 7-inning game. I still see a ton of value with the OVER 8.5 in Game 1 between the Blue Jays and Phillies. The ball is absolutely flying at Sahlen Field. I think people are starting to catch on, but I don't know that the books have quite adjusted. With Spencer Howard on the mound for Philadelphia and Chase Anderson toeing the rubber for Toronto, I think both offenses have a shot here of eclipsing the total on their own. Either way, they should have no problem combing for at least 9 runs. Give me the OVER 8.5! |
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08-19-20 | Astros -148 v. Rockies | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
40* ASTROS/ROCKIES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Astros -148) I will gladly lay it with the Astros, as they now travel to Colorado after taking both games at home against the Rockies. Houston has won 6 straight and what I love is they are finding different ways to win. They can outscore you and recently have won with their pitching. Astros have allowed 2 or fewer runs in all 6 games during their win streak. They figure to get another strong pitching performance in this one, as they send out Framber Valdez. In his first 3 starts of 2020, Valdez has posted a strong 2.08 ERA. Ryan Castellani will counter for Colorado. He's been pretty solid, but also faced a couple of bad offensive teams in the Rangers and Mariners. Give me the Astros -148! |
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08-19-20 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/WHITE SOX MLB STEAMROLLER (Under 9) I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's AL Central matchup between the White Sox and Tigers. We are getting a great price because of both teams sending out a guy making his first career start. Thing is, these are two highly touted prospects that are ready for the spotlight. This also figures to be a great day to pitch, as the wind will be blowing in at Guaranteed Rate Field and temps will be in the mid to low 70s. Look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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08-18-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -170 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/WHITE SOX MLB VEGAS INSIDER (White Sox -170) I got no problem laying the juice with the White Sox as they play host to the Tigers tonight. Detroit will have a promising prospect starting in this game in Tarik Skubal, but I'm not big on him being great out of the gate. He'll be up against a White Sox offense that has scored 7 runs in each of their last 2 games (have scored 7 or more in 4 of their last 6). Chicago will also have Dylan Cease on the mound. He's 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 4 starts and threw 5 shutout innings in his only home start of 2020. Give me the White Sox -170! |
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08-18-20 | Mariners v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
40* MARINERS/DODGERS MLB STEAMROLLER (Dodgers -1.5, -130) I got no problem laying the -130 with the Dodgers on the -1.5 run line Tuesday. At this point, you almost got to ride Los Angeles until they let you down. Dodgers are finally playing up to their massive potential. LA has won 6 straight and 5 of the 6 have come by at least 2 runs. Mariners have lost 6 straight and have scored 4 or fewer in 4 of those 6 games. Tony Gonsolin will start for Dodgers, who has yet to allow a run in 2 starts (8 2/3 innings). Give me the Dodgers -1.5 (-130)! |
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08-18-20 | Rays -110 v. Yankees | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rapys -110) I really like the Rays to put an end to the Yankees 6-game win streak. Tampa Bay has been playing extremely well. Rays are 8-1 over their last 9 games. They took 3 of 4 against New York the last time these two teams met. They are in prime position here with ace Blake Snell on the mound. Snell has a 2.08 ERA in 4 starts. Give me Tampa Bay -110! |
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08-17-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -145 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
40* TIGERS/WHITE SOX MONEY LINE MASSACRE (White Sox -145) Easy play here on the White Sox for me. This is 100% a fade of Detroit starter Matt Boyd. Guy has been absolutely atrocious in his 4 starts of 2020. Boyd has a 10.24 ERA and 1.965 WHIP. In just his last two starts, he's given up 14 runs on 15 hits (4 HRs) and 6 walks. The most recent coming against these same White Sox. Chicago is off a 7-run outburst in Sunday's win and I'm counting on their offense to carry them to a win today. Give me the White Sox -145! |
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08-17-20 | Nationals v. Braves -148 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NATIONALS/BRAVES MLB STEAMROLLER (Braves -148) This is more than a fair price to back the Braves at home. Atlanta is riding a 2-game winnings streak and are 7-2 at home so far in 2020. More than that is the edge they have on the mound in this one. Washington will send out the struggling Anibal Sanchez, who is 0-3 with a 9.69 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in 3 starts. Atlanta will counter with Touki Toussaint. While Toussaint has a 4.91 ERA in 3 starts overall, he's got a strong 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 2 home starts. Give me the Braves -148! |