Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-19 | Rangers v. Angels -150 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA ANGELS The Angels haven't been very good this season, but we've had a somewhat bizarre ability to call for them to win at the right times. Often, it's been in the final game of a series, at home, when they're looking to avoid getting swept. That's not quite the case today as they did win yesterday, beating Texas 3-2, and now have a chance to take the series. We like them to do so as this is probably a good time to sell high on a Rangers team that had previously won 8 out of its last 9. But we don't think the Rangers are going to be particularly good this year and their offense hasn't done much in recent days. Plus they send a spot starter (Ariel Jurado) to the mound today. The Angels, fresh off a walk-off win, go with Andrew Heaney. This is Heaney's 1st start of the year due to elbow issues. But he looked great in a rehab start down on the farm (Triple-A), striking out 10 in just 4 1/3 innings. He led the team in innings pitched last year and the Angels have won seven of his last nine home starts. Mike Trout has not done much at the plate lately (3 of 18 last five games), but should break out of that slump today. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the Pirates 10-2 on Friday and should continue to roll here behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been absolutely on fire of late. In his last three starts, Ryu has a 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP as he's thrown 24 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against only two walks. Ryu hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his nine starts this season! He'll face a slumping Pirates team that has looked rather lifeless this week, save for a 14-6 win over Colorado on Thursday. But they got drilled in the first two games of that series as the starting pitching situation here has gotten somewhat dire (due to injuries). They've had to use an opener three times this week, including last night. Here it'll be Joe Musgrove, a regular member of the rotation, but it's not like he's pitched well lately. He's allowed 19 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. The Dodgers have dominated the Pirates through the years, outscoring them 119-56 the last three seasons while going 15-2 overall. That includes a 5-0 record with Ryu on the mound. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers continue to dig themselves an even deeper hole on what has been an absolutely dreadful homestand. That homestand ends today and they enter the finale with Miami on an eight-game losing streak, all of those games here at Comerica Park. While they were outscored 24-6 in three games by Houston and 28-6 in three games by Oakland, losing twice here to Miami just might be the official "low point" of the 2019 campaign. The Marlins, who have now won five straight and are going for a second straight sweep, nevertheless have the worst record in the whole National League. They have scored 24 fewer runs than the Tigers this season as these are the two lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. We believe the home team is going to come in highly motivated today as it looks to avoid a winless homestand. They did lead 3-0 (after three innings) yesterday. Hope comes in the form of Matthew Boyd for today as he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the year. He's been the team's most reliable starter. His last start was the first time this season that he allowed more than three earned runs (he allowed four). We give him the nod over Miami's Trevor Richards, who just won for the first time all year and has a 1-8 team start record. This will be just the second time the Tigers are higher than -125 on the money line. They won the first. The Marlins are 1-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA DODGERS The Dodgers had their four-game win streak (three shutouts) snapped on Saturday, but should get right back into the win column Sunday here in Cincinnati. They had shut the Reds out on Friday, 6-0, but then got a taste of their own medicine yesterday in a 4-0 loss. Shutouts have been incredibly common in Dodgers games recently with 7 of their last 10 games ending up that way, either in their favor or not. Five of the seven games have been wins. Two of the shutouts have been authored by today's starting pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is on an incredible run and having an incredible season. Ryu is working on a 24 inning scoreless stretch and didn't allow a run in either of his last two starts. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last one. That came after a 93-pitch complete game. Ryu hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start all season. He has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.72) right now. We just don't see how Tanner Roark and the Reds can match up here. Cincy is 5-12 in day games this season and 0-7 on Sunday. The Dodgers are 9-3 in day games. Play LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-18-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals fell to an unthinkable 2-8 in Max Scherzer starts by losing last night 14-6. Don't put that all on Scherzer, however. It was 3-2 game when he left (Nats trailing) and then the bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, giving up 11 runs over the last three innings, including five home runs. Washington is better than this and we like them to bounce back behind Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg hasn't gotten any run support in his last two starts, literally, as the Nationals didn't score a single run in either game. But Straburg is still pitching well. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and given up two runs or less in four of the last five. For the Cubs, Lester hasn't allowed any earned runs in his last three starts. But he still has a higher WHIP than Strasburg for the year, which is telling. There have been three unearned runs allowed in the last two starts as well as 17 hits. So it's not been the dominant stretch some will make it out to be. Lester has a 1-4 TSR his last five starts vs. the Nationals, who are 70-28 in Strasburg's last 98 starts. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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05-17-19 | Pirates v. Padres -155 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO How Pittsburgh is above .500 is a minor miracle. They have not just the worst run differential in the division (-48), but the second worst in the entire National League (Miami). They lost last night here in San Diego, 4-3, and we should get a repeat of that result tonight. Probably we should expect things to be even more lopsided. Even though the Bucs are 12-11 on the road, they've actually been outscored by a full run per game. The rotation is in tatters right now, putting a lot of pressure on starter Jordan Lyles this evening. While Lyles has a 6-1 team start record this year, his career numbers against San Diego aren't good at all. We're talking a 5.60 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP and opponents batting average of .296 against his former team. San Diego turns to Lucchesi, who is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. Then again, Lucchesi did just go 5 1/3 innings at Coors Field last Saturday while allowing one run. The Pirates have lost their last six games against left-handed starters. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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05-17-19 | Brewers v. Braves -132 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA Both the Braves and Brewers were playoff teams last year and obviously both would like to return there this fall. Both did win in their last series after losing the opener. Milwaukee took three of four, in Philadelphia, while Atlanta took two of three from St. Louis here at home. By rule, one of them is going to be successful in this series opener and we like the Braves. After being drubbed in the first game (lost 14-3), Atlanta gave it right back by outscoring St. Louis 14-2 the last two days. Starter Fried just may be the right man for the job tonight considering his 0.82 WHIP at home. Brewers starter Chacin has a 6.00 ERA on the road. Yes, Chacin has looked quite good of late, but the team is still 0-4 his last four road starts. The last one saw him allow just two runs at Wrigley and the Brewers still lost. Milwaukee is just 9-19 their last 28 games in Atlanta. Chacin also has an 0-4 team start record his last four starts against teams that have winning records. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-17-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -145 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals got a much needed win yesterday, 7-6 over the Mets, thereby taking that three-game set. They get a much tougher opponent this weekend, also at home, in the form of the Cubs. But they'll have Max Scherzer starting the opener Friday. Although Scherzer has a stunning 2-7 team start record this year, it's not like he's pitched that poorly. The ERA is definitely a little higher than normal (3.64) as is the WHIP (1.15). But both numbers are better at home despite an 0-5 TSR here. It's been four straight quality starts from Scherzer with 35 strikeouts in 27 innings and just nine total runs allowed. It's a tough matchup here vs. Cole Hamels, but Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA all-time against the Cubs, who have lost two in a row after winning six of seven. Having to sit through a rain delay last night in Cincinnati probably does them no favors for today. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins -129 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA The Twins certainly look like the team to beat in the AL Central at this point. In fact, they are one of just six MLB teams to be currently playing .600 ball or better. They have the second best overall record in the American League after beating the Angels yesterday, 4-3, and it shouldn't be much trouble winning again here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota will give the baseball to a hot hand in Jake Odorizzi, who is currently working on a 20-inning scoreless streak. Odorizzi is 2nd in the AL in ERA at 2.32 and during the 20 innings of scoreless baseball, he's allowed a total of just seven hits. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start in 2019. His last start saw Odorizzi go seven innings and allow just one hit to Detroit. Another hot hand for the Twins, Kyle Gibson, did very well against the Angels yesterday. It's hard to imagine Odorizzi not doing the same given the struggles we've seen from the Angels lineup on the road this year. Trevor Cahill starts for the road team and he hasn't exactly pitched well of late. We're talking an 8.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his L3 starts and a 6.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall. Cahill has struggled at Target Field in the past (6.23 ERA) as well. The Twins are giving up only 3.2 runs/game at home this year and only 2.7 the last 7 games overall. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-12-19 | Angels -155 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS You probably don't have to be told that the Orioles are horrible, but allow us to extrapolate. By a large margin, they are the worst team in the American League. They've now been outscored by 79 runs on the season and are just 13-26. They've lost 10 of 13 including four straight. No other team can touch their 233 runs allowed this year, easily the most in all of MLB. The Angels have come into Camden Yards and taken the first two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-2. Par for the course for the O's. We had Los Angeles in the first game and Sunday's finale will be our top MLB side for May. You might think Baltimore has some sort of chance here, given how John Means has pitched. But Sunday's starter has gotten to face two opponents twice so far. Baltimore is 5-15 at home and 5-12 in day games. Canning starts today for the Angels and his first two outings have both resulted in victories with him fanning 13 in 9 2/3 innings. The Angels are now 7-1 vs. the Orioles since the start of last season and 11-3 since the start of the 2017 season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall and two of the four losses were down in Mexico against Houston. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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05-10-19 | Angels -172 v. Orioles | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on LA Angels As long as they stay in the United States, the Angels are doing quite well for themselves lately. Last weekend saw them have to travel down to Mexico for a two-game series against the Astros. Those games went very badly as Los Angeles was outscored 24-6. But prior to heading South of the border, they'd won four straight and had swept Toronto. Upon their return to the U.S., the Angels took two of three from Detroit, including 13-0 win yesterday. Now they open up a series against who is unquestionably the worst team in the American League, Baltimore. The Orioles did have Thursday off, but days off previously have not helped them at all. They are 3-6 in the role this season and 12-36 their L48! Neither starting pitcher for Friday is going to remind you of Cy Young. But Baltimore's Straily has a 7.49 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels while LA's Cahill has a 1.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Orioles. The Angels hit 5 HR's yesterday and the Orioles staff has given up a league-high 80 longballs this season. Play on LA Angels AAA |
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05-08-19 | White Sox v. Indians -195 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND The Indians should not be losing two in a row to the White Sox, but that's precisely what has transpired over Monday and Tuesday. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's difficult to win in this game when you don't score any runs. Over its last three games, Cleveland has scored a grand total of one run! Whereas Sunday and Monday's losses (Sunday to Seattle) were lopsided, last night was a 2-0 game that they managed only five hits. This issue has to be corrected eventually and we think tonight is that time as the Tribe will be facing a struggling starter in Reynaldo Lopez, whose numbers leave a lot to be desired. In seven starts, Lopez has a 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. After it appeared he might be turning a corner, he allowed six runs to Boston on Friday. We played against him then and will do so again tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has allowed three runs or less in every start but one this year, which will always give his team a chance to win. The runs have to start coming for the Indians sooner or later and we'll call for them to break out of the slump here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -126 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS After taking a hard-luck 1-0 loss on Friday (game went 12 innings), the Rangers came back and beat the Blue Jays 8-5 last night. They jumped all over Toronto starter Pannone, scoring seven times off him in just 2 1/3 innings. Today, they hope for similar results against Clay Buchholz, whose best days are pretty clearly behind him. Buchholz is still winless after four starts, though the team has gone 2-2. But Toronto has lost the last two and Buchholz hasn't made it past the fifth in any of the last three. The Blue Jays aren't a strong hitting team either, averaging just 4.0 rpg on the year. There's only been one time where they have scored more than five runs in the last nine games. Also winless in four starts is Rangers lefty Drew Smyly. The only difference with him is the team has lost all four times. He's also not made it very deep into games. But at least Smyly has an offense that can adequately support him. Texas is averaging 6.1 runs scored in home games this year. Buchholz is 0-4 lifetime in this park with a 6.00 ERA. Smyly has a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Toronto. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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05-04-19 | Red Sox -161 v. White Sox | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON This week has seen us call for a Red Sox resurgence and they've delivered in kind by going 4-1 the last five games. They swept Oakland earlier in the week, at home, and then after a walkoff loss in the opener here in Chicago, it was an easy 6-1 win. That was Chris Sale's first victory of 2019. We'll back Boston again in this spot as the Sox of a different color are no match for them. Now we know that Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to be an effective starter this season for Boston. However, he's never lost in three previous starts against the White Sox. Chicago is still giving up over 6.0 runs/game at home too. Only two teams give up more runs in home games and they are Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (worst team in baseball). Boston easily could be on a five-game win streak heading into this game and they should "get to" White Sox starter Banuelos, who has made only two starts so far and both were against Baltimore. This is a big step up. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-03-19 | Red Sox -187 v. White Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on BOSTON Terrible loss for Boston last night as a three-run HR by the White Sox Nicky Delmonico ended the game. The Red Sox went into the bottom of the ninth up 4-3, an advantage they'd held since going up in the top of the seventh. The loss came on the heels of a three-game sweep of Oakland, which was at home, but Boston had an edge going into yesterday in that the White Sox had just played a doubleheader on Wednesday. We expect the Red Sox to bounce back in a major way Friday with Chris Sale on the mound. Shockingly, Sale has yet to win a game this year. He's 0-5 in six starts with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Not like him at all, but who better for him to turn it around against than his former team? Obviously, Sale is accustomed to dominating in this park. Can't say the same for White Sox starter Lopez, who brings a 6.33 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in four home starts into tonight's game. Boston is 25-8 the last 33 times it has been priced north of -175 on the road. Chicago is 7-29 the L36 times it has been priced north of +175 at home. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-02-19 | Red Sox -170 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON It was just a couple of days ago that we predicted the Red Sox would start to break out from what had been a terribly disappointing start to the 2019 season. Sure enough, they just swept a three-game series from Oakland. We had them in the first two games before laying off yesterday afternoon. They outscored the A's 21-8. Now the Sox hit the road for the weekend, but it'll be Chicago and the White Sox aren't likely to measure up. The White Sox ended April by winning three in a row, but May began with a doubleheader that they split with Baltimore. Playing a doubleheader yesterday puts them at a slight disadvantage right off the bat today. So too does facing a red hot David Price. After a rough start to the year, Price has settled down with a 2.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last three starts. He's allowed only four runs in 18 innings and has 24 strikeouts. Compare that to the numbers of Chicago's Lucas Giolito, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. The White Sox give up 6.3 runs per game at home. They have lost the last six time Giolito has started at Guaranteed Rate Field. Boston is 12-1 in Price's previous 13 starts vs teams that have a losing record. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-01-19 | Reds v. Mets -172 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -172 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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04-30-19 | Blue Jays v. Angels -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS The Angels aren't a good team, but we've kind of had our "finger on the pulse" when it comes to taking them, if the situation calls for it. The situation calls for it here as they open a three-game series at home vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays are ripe for a letdown after sweeping Oakland for a second time this season. The latest sweep was at home over the weekend, but two of the three wins came in the final at-bat. That last series also saw Vlad Guerrero Jr finally make his big league debut. This series will be a homecoming of sorts for the Blue Jays top prospect as his father used to play in this stadium. However, while the Blue Jays may have swept the A's, Guerrero Jr was just 3 for 12 at the plate. Him being on the roster seems to have overvalued Toronto. The key rookie in this game may actually be Angels starting pitcher Griffin Canning, who makes his first start for the big league club. Canning was outstanding for Triple A, giving up just one run in 16 innings. All Toronto can offer up is the aging Clay Buchholz, who has a 4.60 ERA in three starts. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox -154 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON We had the Red Sox yesterday (they won 9-4) and our view that this is a series where they'll get "back on track" (whether it be temporarily or permanently) remains unchanged. Tuesday's starter Rick Porcello has been pretty bad so far this year, but Oakland's Aaron Brooks hasn't been any better. The Athletics are 0-4 so far priced between +125 and +175 on the road and that's where we find them today. They've dropped four in a row, all on the road, and this is a team clearly searching for answers right now. The A's did take an early 4-0 lead on Monday, but an error-filled 3rd inning led to a six-run rally for Boston. That one inning may be all that the Red Sox need to get things pointed in the right direction here. Brooks has given up a total of six home runs in his last four starts for Oakland, who is 19-46 in their last 65 games played at Fenway Park. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-29-19 | A's v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON By their standard, the Red Sox have endured a terrible start to the season. Remember that at this time last year, they were 21-7. The club would finish up 52.5 units in 2018 and of course win the World Series. Fast forward to the present and they are just 11-17 and the worst bet in all of MLB. They dropped to 0-5 in Chris Sale starts yesterday, losing to the Rays 5-2. But - even if it's only temporary - there should be a turnaround this week at Fenway vs. Oakland. The A's aren't exactly playing well right now either. They just got swept for a second time this year by the Blue Jays. Sunday's loss was an 11-inning affair, the second time in three games they lost in walkoff fashion. Both Monday starters have pitched well of late as Oakland's Montas is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts and Boston's Rodriguez is 2-0 his last three with a 3.00 ERA. But we'll lean on the fact both of Rodriguez's starts at home have gone quite well. He's allowed just three runs and five hits in 12 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-28-19 | Indians v. Astros -116 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON The series may not have started well for the Astros, but they now have a chance to earn a split with the Indians tonight on ESPN. After dropping the first two games, by scores of 2-1 and 6-3, they were able to pull out a win in 10 innings yesterday, 4-3. They may have gotten only five hits, but the big one was Tony Kemp's walkoff HR. The 'Stros have what appears to be a considerable edge in starting pitching tonight as Wade Miley goes against Carlos Carrasco. Miley has a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his five starts while Carrasco has struggled with a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Carrasco was better in his last two starts, but has twice allowed six runs on the road. Cleveland has not been good offensively this year and the road has given them real trouble when it comes to putting runs on the board. The Indians are batting only .201 when not playing at Progressive Field. Houston is 9-3 at Minute Maid Park. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets -133 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS This series started with the Mets winning 5-1 last night on ESPN. For the Mets, it was a much needed result after dropping six of eight, including two of three over the weekend in St. Louis. The Phillies still share lead the NL East at 12-10 overall, though they have a positive run differential while the Mets are still "in the black." But we won't pay much mind to that tonight due to the Phillies having a banged up lineup that simply isn't hitting much right now. They are just 7 for 39 with runners in scoring position the last five games and were held to three hits total in Monday's loss. Philly has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games and just one each of the last two games. Tonight, they'll face Zach Wheeler, who pitched well against them last week only to get a hard luck loss. It was the second straight quality start for Wheeler and his longest of the year. Philly turns to Eflin, who has yet to pitch against the Mets this year. But in seven career starts against them, his ERA is 5.25. We like the Mets here. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-22-19 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Both teams are off one-run games Sunday, the only difference being that Texas won theirs. That lone difference is pretty indicative of the way the respective teams come into this series. The Rangers have won six out of their last seven while the A's have dropped five of their last six. Oakland was just swept here at home by Toronto, scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games, then leaving the potential game-winning run on base for the final out yesterday. At least the A's managed to score four times on Sunday. The offense should wake up tonight against Mike Minor, even though Minor has pitched pretty well since a shaky first start. Minor is off a complete game shutout, his third quality start in a role, but we're still not sold. Oakland turns to Chris Bassitt, who is making his first start of the year. Something to watch for here is how much the Rangers tend to drop off offensively on the road. They've lost 15 of the last 19 games here in Oakland as well. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-20-19 | Mariners v. Angels -117 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS We had the Under in last night's game and that cashed with little room to spare. It was a 5-3 win for the Mariners, who came into the series having lost six in a row (swept by both Cleveland and Houston). Now its the Angels that have dropped five straight and they are also 0-4 this year vs. Seattle. Though an impressive 15-8 with 148 runs scored, we're not sold on this hot start lasting for the Mariners. Nor are we sold on the Angels being as bad as they've looked. The home run ball has been huge thus far for Seattle and last night (hit four of them) accounted for all five runs. That's concerning with Saturday's starter for the Angels (Trevor Cahill) having been so susceptible to the long ball so far. But look for Cahill to turn it around here. He previously held the Mariners to one run on three hits back on April 3rd. He's off a rough showing in Texas, but had gone at least six innings each of the first three starts. The Mariners go with Kikuchi, making his 6th start tonight. He has a 5.29 ERA in the last three and has been a slow starter. He's also still winless. That will stay the case after tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-18-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins -172 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -172 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series, beating Toronto yesterday by a count of 4-1. Monday had seen them lose 5-3 (thanks to the bullpen blowing a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning) and then Tuesday was a one-run loss. So you could say that the Twins were due yesterday and sure enough they came through. The teams finish out the four-game set today with a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda. We think it's fair to still be concerned about a Blue Jays lineup that is batting only .215 this season. The Twins are 3-0 in starts made by Pineda so far with him delivering a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Buchholz has pitched just once, delivering Toronto a huge upset (at +190) against Tampa Bay. The Jays nearly wasted his effort as they were scoreless until the ninth when they struck for three runs. This being a day game would seem to favor the home team. Minnesota is already 6-2 in day games this season while Toronto is just 4-5. Twins earn a split of the series. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-16-19 | Reds v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES A curious thing happened last year when the Dodgers played the Reds. They lost six of the seven games. Given that the Dodgers won 92 games and the Reds just 67, those head to head results made little sense. So with LA having dropped six of seven overall going into last night, you can bet they were extra motivated and sure enough they came away with a 4-3 victory. Now it wasn't easy as they won in the bottom of the ninth via a Joc Pederson home run. But look for that to have a carry over type effect into Tuesday when the Dodgers sent Kenta Maeda to the mound. Maeda has already been the beneficiary of the NL's top scoring offense with the Dodgers scoring 28 runs in his first two starts. He was not at his best last week in St. Louis, but a return home should do him some good as will facing this anemic Reds lineup that is hitting only .204 on the road. Cincy has topped five runs in a game only one time and has been been held to three or less eight times. Tyler Mahle has done his best in two previous starts, but the team has scored just two runs total for him. Dodgers win here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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04-15-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -132 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE St. Louis faces a tall order having to go from Mexico to Miller Park in Milwaukee in a 24-hour span. Awaiting them will be a Brewers club that is already 3-1 against the Cards this year. That series was also played here in Milwaukee. Now we went against the Brewers (to great success) Sunday as they went down 7-1 out in Los Angeles. But that should not cloud the fact that the Brewers won the first two games of that series. The Dodgers were desperate yesterday (had lost six in a row), which is why we went so big on them. Both of tonight's starters will be making their second start of the year against the respective opponents and each hopes the second time around goes better than the first. For Milwaukee, Peralta allowed four runs in three innings to St. Louis in a 9-5 loss on 3.29. The following day, Hudson gave up three home runs in 4 1/3 innings as the Cardinals lost 4-2. Milwaukee is a REALLY good home team. That's confirmed by a 43-15 WL record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line the last three seasons. Play MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA Arizona hopes to avoid what would be a 4-game sweep, at home no less, here vs. San Diego. They have Zack Greinke on the mound at what looks to be an incredibly cheap price. Note all three losses in this series have been by one run. Part of the reason Greinke is so cheap Sunday is he hasn't been that effective so far this year. A 7.16 ERA is not what you'd expect to see from him after three starts, but that's where he's at. However, Greinke is still feeling the effects of a very poor first start. He's been better in the last two, one of which was against the Padres. He had a 10-0 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings, holding SD to just three runs. San Diego has been one of Grienke's favorite opponents in his career as he's 12-2 against them lifetime with a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts. Greinke even homered TWICE in that last start vs. San Diego. One again, he'll be opposed by Eric Lauer, who has struggled some in his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 11 innings and three home runs. We just don't see the Padres being able to finish off the sweep here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -137 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the DODGERS The Dodgers are reeling right now, having lost six straight. They were swept out in St. Louis to start the week and now are on the verge of suffering the same fate at the hands of Milwaukee, this time at home. But fear not fans of Dodger Blue, we believe you're team is going to check back into the win column today, led by Ross Stripling, who has pitched better than his 0-1 record shows. Speaking of better than their record, the Dodgers are +16 in runs scored vs. allowed (a NL best), despite being only 8-8. On the other hand Milwaukee has managed to go 10-5 despite giving up the same number of runs that they have scored. Only the Mariners, who are off to a record-setting start, have scored more runs this year than the Dodgers. And remember LA doesn't have a DH in its lineup. Look for a lineup averaging 6.8 runs per game at Chavez Ravine to get to Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin, who they know well from his time in Colorado and Arizona. Even though he allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 innings his last start, Chacin still took the loss as he issued more walks (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he had strikeouts (1). Play LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-13-19 | Tigers v. Twins -176 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on MINNESOTA We like the Twins in this spot quite a bit coming off a postponement on Friday. This will be just the second series so far at Target Field and when priced at -125 or higher, the home team is usually a safe bet here. Minny's record the last three seasons in that range is 45-25. They are 13-4 when -175 or higher. Overall, this has been a good home team with a 91-72 record here since the start of the 2017 season. The Twins also have Michael Pineda going. In two starts, he's allowed just two runs and five hits. That's a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Facing a Tigers team that's averaging just 1.7 runs per game on the road so far should be "easy pickings" for Pineda. Detroit is actually 8-5, but we wouldn't advise taking them too seriously at this point as they've faced a lot of "light-hitting" teams and sweeping Kansas City really isn't impressive. We look for the Twins to score plenty against Tyson Ross, who gave up two homers and four walks in his only prior start on the road. Play MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-11-19 | A's -147 v. Orioles | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Oakland lost the first game of this series 12-4. That left them with a four-game losing streak and at the time, they were 0-6 on the road (including two losses in Japan to start the year). But the A's have been able to bounce back with a couple easy wins the last two days. We were on them when they crushed Baltimore 13-2 Tuesday. It was more of the same yesterday in a 10-3 triumph. Oakland's lineup has feasted off Baltimore pitching with 38 hits in the three games. They homered five times last night. In the pitching department, the A's turn to Aaron Brooks for Thursday's finale while Baltimore will go with Dylan Bundy. Brooks struggled at Houston in his last start, but had previously worked six scoreless innings against Boston (gave up just two hits). That's at least something as opposed to Bundy, who didn't last long in either of his two starts (both 3 2/3 innings), both of which were against the Yankees. He's allowed six runs in 7 1/3. By the way, the Orioles are 12-25 the past three seasons after giving up 10 or more runs in their last game. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-10-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -152 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -152 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies blew a chance to move to 8-2 on the year, losing to the Nationals yesterday by a score of 10-6. The game went to extra innings after Washington tied it up a six runs apiece in the top of the ninth. Then, Juan Soto's three-run homer in the top of the 10th won it. But we should not let one singular result cloud our view of Philly. They have the best win percentage in the National League and are 6-2 at home so far. There is some concern with the way starter Nick Pivetta has pitched against Washington in the past and he's been far from dominant in his two starts this season. But the Nationals entered yesterday with the worst bullpen ERA in the NL and their own starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has question marks as well. Hellickson, a former Phillie, has not yet started in 2019. But he did allow two runs in one relief effort, against his former team, back on April 2nd. Philadelphia had a five-run lead in yesterday's game. While they're 2-2 vs. Washington so far, they easily could be 4-0 as they blew 9th inning leads in both losses. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-10-19 | Rays -147 v. White Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Tampa Bay The Rays were an easy winner for us yesterday, so why not come back with them today? To this point, they have performed to the level of one of the best teams in baseball, particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. Through 12 games, they've allowed just 25 runs, which is easily MLB's best on a per game basis. While they did allow five runs yesterday, it hardly mattered with the offense performing the way it did. With four straight series wins to open the season (club record), they've matched their best overall start in nine years. They also beat Chicago 5-1 on Monday and with Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 0.82 ERA) on the bump today, we see no reason why they won't sweep. Glasnow has allowed just 1 ER in 11 innings so far. As for White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez, he's allowed 10 runs in his first nine innings pitched this season. Lopez was touched up for three home runs his last time out. An utter and complete mismatch this afternoon. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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04-09-19 | A's -154 v. Orioles | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND We played the Over on this matchup yesterday and that was a very easy win as Baltimore jumped all over Oakland starter Marco Estrada, scoring four times in the first two innings and six times all together before Estrada exited after four. The game had gone Over by the sixth inning, then just for "good measure" the Orioles tacked on five more in the bottom of the eighth to make it a 12-4 win. We expect the A's to rebound Tuesday. While Oakland still has yet to win a game away from home this season (either in Japan or the U.S.), playing Baltimore should change that. The Orioles failed to even win 50 games last season and had lost four in a row before busting loose on Monday. They're a respectable 5-5 so far, but expecting them to continue to play at a .500 level seems foolish. They still should lose 100+ games this season. Oakland is 2-0 with tonight's starter Brett Anderson on the mound as he's allowed only three runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday (did have 11 hits total), expect more "timely" hitting from the Athletics today as they face John Means, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-09-19 | Rays -154 v. White Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay easily handled its business Monday afternoon, downing the White Sox by a score of 5-1. We expect a similar result this afternoon. Rays pitching has been downright filthy to this point, allowing just 20 runs in 11 games. That's pretty easily the best in MLB. Since a loss on Opening Day, the team has gone 8-2 with one of the losses coming in extra innings (and it was 1-0 game). Charlie Morton will start today and he's looked good in his first two starts of the year (1.64 ERA). He'll look to continue a streak that has seen Rays pitching not give up a run in 36 of the past 37 innings. They've allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of 11 games. As for Chicago, Ervin Santana is a big question mark. He was limited to four starts last year because of injury. He has a 5.31 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Tampa, though he has not faced them since 2016. Ultimately though, this one comes down to the fact the White Sox will again struggle to score runs. They are also just 47-78 in day games the past three seasons. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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04-07-19 | Dodgers -138 v. Rockies | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LA DODGERS The Dodgers are gunning for a sweep and their fifth win in a row overall Sunday night as they wrap up their series with division rival Colorado. The Rockies started out 2-0, but have subsequently dropped six of seven with the lone victory coming by a score of 1-0 in Tampa Bay and even that took extra innings. So it's not a good time to be playing them right now. With them having to face Julio Urias, it would appear to be a great time to fade. Urias tossed five shutout innings last Monday vs. San Francisco, but the bullpen unfortunately couldn't finish the job. That 4-2 setback was the last time the Dodgers lost however. Something else to keep in mind is that Urias was excellent in the Spring. He was 2-0 in Catcus League play, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.51 WHIP. He gave up just three runs in 15 2/3 innings and had 15 strikeouts. The Rockies go with Chad Bettis in this spot and he was hit hard in his first start of the regular season, giving up six runs. Bettis has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers (4.85 ERA) as has his entire team. LA is 37-23 vs. Colorado since the start of the 2016 season, winning 16 of the last 23 matchups. They've scored seven or more runs a quarter of the time in those L60 games while winning by four or more runs 14 times. They won 10-6 on Friday and 7-2 on Saturday. Play LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-07-19 | Rangers v. Angels -140 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS After losing Thursday's series opener, the Angels will look to make it three in a row Sunday afternoon at the Rangers expense. Each of the last two days have seen them hold Texas to a single run. That was after Thursday starter Matt Harvey got crushed and they gave up 11 runs. That loss left LA an AL-worst 1-6, which also matched the worst ever start to a season for the franchise. But they've now seemingly got back on track and it's Texas scrambling. Mike Trout has homered in three straight games for the Angels, who should continue to find success here against Texas pitching. The Rangers are electing to go with Shelby Miller, who permitted 10 baserunners in his first star, which lasted all of 3 2/3 innings. That was five walks and five hits. The Rangers still won, 6-4, beating the Astros as a big underdog. But that won't happen again here. The Angels will hope for something better than what they got the first time from Chris Stratton and should get it against a team that has done next to nothing offensively the last two days. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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04-05-19 | A's v. Astros -166 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston has some nice advantages coming into tonight's home opener, one being they are simply a more talented team than the A's. Now the respective won-loss records might say otherwise, but we know it's still (very) early in the season. Houston had yesterday off while Oakland was hosting Boston. The A's won 7-3, their sixth win in eight games after starting the year with a couple losses over in Japan. But they haven't been on the road since playing in Japan and tonight will be a big test. They send Frankie Montas to the bump and he has a 7.74 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Astros. Houston goes with Collin McHugh, who is 8-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the A's. Houston is priced low for being at home and that's probably due to a disappointing 2-5 start. But they'll get back on track in short order, starting with a win Friday night. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-04-19 | Rangers v. Angels -142 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the LA ANGELS The Angels finally get to play some games at home, starting Thursday, as they welcome in the Rangers for a four-game set. Things have not gone well for LA so far as they are 1-5, matching the franchise's worst ever start, set back in the expansion season of 1961. But Texas would seem to be the elixir that they're looking for right now. Not only have the Angels gone 13-6 head to head against the Rangers the last two years, they've beaten them five straight times, all here in Anaheim. The Rangers starter for tonight is Edinson Volquez and he pitched poorly in his first start of the year. He gave up four runs in four innings and had four walks. The Rangers did end up winning, but no thanks to Volquez. Matt Harvey toes the rubber here for Los Angeles and looked pretty good his first time out. He did allow one home run, but only two runs total in six innings and that happens to be the only game his team has won so far. Texas has yet to play a road game this year. Volquez has been bad in his career against the Angels as his ERA is 10.71 in six games. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-02-19 | Angels +100 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the ANGELS Seattle is already 6-1 thanks to starting the year in Japan where they picked up a couple wins at Oakland's expense. But they've also played pretty well here in the U.S.A. where they are 4-1 including a 6-3 win last night over the Angels. But this run is going to come to a screeching halt sooner than later. The Mariners intend to rebuild and figure to lose at least 85 games this season. Look for a loss tonight as we can't see Marco Gonzales continuing to succeed with his current numbers (4.77 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). He's 2-0, but that's thanks to the Mariners offense scoring 21 runs in those two games. The Angels might be off to a slow start, but an offense that has been held to three runs or less four times already should break out agianst Gonzales, who they saw six different times last season. Mike Trout is 8 for 17 lifetime against Gonzales. Trevor Cahill will start for LA and should pitch better than he did in Oakland on Opening Day. The last time Cahill faced the M's, he was with the A's and allowed just two runs on four hits. He has a 3.40 ERA against Seattle in 14 career starts. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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04-02-19 | Brewers v. Reds +101 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI The Reds came into this season with plenty of promise, which was part of the reason I took them on Opening Day. They won that first game, 5-3 over Pittsburgh, but haven't won since. That's misleading though as they've only played two games due to an off-day and a rainout. Last night saw them drop a 4-3 decision to the Brewers with Christian Yelich delivering a game winning double in the top of the ninth. Milwaukee is now 4-1, though every win has been close (three by 1 run), led by Yelich homering in every game but yesterday. I think the Brewers luck is about to run out here as it's difficult to keep winning in the manner than they have. The Reds are a better team this season and will not be the pushover they were a year ago. Brewers starter Chacin has a losing record against Cincy in his career (2-3 in 10 starts) and last year's two starts against them saw him allow five runs in only 9 1/3 innings. Chacin's first start of 2019 saw him give up multiple home runs and walks. Anthony DeSclafani will oppose him today and we feel he's the better starter in this matchup. This will be his first start of the year. Look for the Reds offense to "pick up" in this game as well. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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03-31-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO The Padres lost 3-2 yesterday to the Giants. All five of the game's runs were scored in the sixth inning. But before that San Francisco had scored just one run in 23 innings and they didn't score again the rest of the game. So it would seen unrealistic for them to do much at the plate as this four-game series wraps up Sunday at Petco Park. The San Diego starting rotation is young, but loaded with talent and we've seen them keep the San Fran lineup in total check so far. Today it's Chris Paddack's turn as the 23-year old makes his first major league start. Paddack is one of the top prospects in the Padres organization and had himself an impressive Spring. His strikeout to walk rate is exactly what you want to see from a young starter. On the other hand, the Giants are going with an over the hill starter in Jeff Samardzija, who had a terrible 2018. Samardzija went 1-5 in 10 starts last season with a career worst 6.50 ERA. Bothered by shoulder issues, we're not sure how much he has left in the tank and the team is just 2-12 his last 14 starts overall. The Padres should bounce back from their first loss of the season rather easily here. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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03-30-19 | White Sox v. Royals -120 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KC We don't expect much from either of these teams in 2019, but someone has to win these games and in the case of Opening Day, it was the Royals getting the job done. They beat the White Sox 5-3, thanks to starter Brad Keller giving them seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Chicago scored all three of its runs in the ninth inning and had nearly as many errors (3) as they did hits (4) in the game. Kansas City is a team built on speed, both on the basepaths and defensively. They aren't going to be good this year, but if they get the kind of starting pitching Keller gave them Thursday, then they can certainly beat an opponent like the White Sox. Jakob Junis will start here, looking to build off a strong finish to '18 where he won his final three starts and four of his last five. He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. Chicago's Lopez had a similar strong finish to the year, but he's backed by a very young lineup that is going to struggle to score runs here. Also, Lopez's numbers were much worse on the road in 2018. How about the fact Chicago is 16-42 following an off day, or 0 for their last 7 after giving up 5+ runs the last game? Play on KC AAA |
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03-29-19 | Giants v. Padres -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO Expectations are higher than normal for San Diego this year due to the surprise signing of Manny Machado. Just how high this Padres club can climb is up for debate, but they got 2019 off to a good start by shutting out the Giants yesterday. It was a 2-0 win. While Machado was hitless, heavily hyped rookie Fernando Tatis singled twice in his debut. There are some that feel Tatis will have the bigger impact this season. As for the Giants, look for them to have little impact in the National League West. They are about to embark on the same trip San Diego took the last couple years, that being a neccessary rebuild. Joey Lucchesi starts tonight for the Padres, looking to build off a season where he led the team with 130 strikeouts. Lucchesi looked good in the Spring and was 1-0 in two starts vs. the Giants last year. He'll face Derek Holland, whose ERA saw massive improvement in 2018, probably due to moving to the National League. But we don't expect a repeat of last year's 3.57 ERA nor do we expect much from the Giants offense after being shutout last night. Going back to the end of last year, San Diego has won four of five against San Fran. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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03-28-19 | Pirates v. Reds -108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI The Reds have had a hard time with the Pirates the last couple seasons, losing 14 of the last 19 head to head matchups. But they've also not been a very good team for awhile now. That could change in 2019 where improvement is expected. Many have them escaping the NL Central basement for the first time in forever and if they do, it's likely at the Pirates' expense. Cincy does start the season a little short-handed with 2B Scooter Gennett on the DL. But that loss will be mitigated today by the pitching of starter Luis Castillo, who had an excellent finish to 2018. Over his final 11 starts, Castillo struck out 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings and posted a 2.44 ERA. In the month of September, he allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 innings. We don't think Pittsburgh is going to be very good this season and starter Taillon is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Reds. Good price on the home team today. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-27-18 | Rangers v. Mariners -175 | 2-0 | Loss | -175 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners. Ariel Jurado (4-5, 6.66 ERA) gets the call for the Rangers on Thursday for the Rangers and he for the most part has been a complete disaster this season. Note that the rookie is 2-4 with a 7.96 ERA on the road. The Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez (13-9, 4.12) and he’ll look to close out strong on what has to be viewed upon as a pretty decent overall campaign; note that the southpaw has been at his bet at home by going 5-3 with a 3.67 ERA. We’re banking on Gonzalez easily getting the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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09-26-18 | Braves v. Mets -153 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) started the year off strong, but he’s been steadily regressing for a while now and we think he’ll struggle again here. He was most recently shelled for five runs over three innings in a loss to the Nationals. deGrom (9-9, 1.77) is one of only two pitchers in the league with a sub 2.00 ERA. Note that he owns a tiny 1.56 ERA at home as well. Additionally note that NY is 15-7 in its last 22 as a home fav in the -150 to -175 range. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-25-18 | Braves v. Mets -145 | 7-3 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. We’re not expecting an upset here. The Braves hand the ball to Touki Toussaint (2-1, 4.30 ERA) and he’s for the most part struggled in the big leagues. Note that he owns a 5.40 ERA in all “night” contests. The Mets go with Noah Syndergaard (12-4, 3.36) who continues to excel down the stretch, coming in off back-to-back strong outings. Thor will now look to close out strong, note that he’s 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home. We’re banking on Syndergaard coming in focused and to easily get the better of his “on again, off again” counterpart. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-24-18 | A's v. Mariners -120 | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. We think James Paxton is the correct call at home on Monday night. The A’s turn to Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.96 ERA) who for the most part has been extremely impressive over the second half of the season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “night” contests, going just 3-4 with a 4.95 ERA. Paxton (11-6, 3.83) returns from a stint on the DL from the flu. Paxton has been better on the road than at home this year, but no matter where he’s been, he’s been at his best in all “night” contests, coming in with with an impressive 9-4, 2.76 ERA record. We like Paxton at home, great value. Play on the MARINERS. UPDATE: Anderson is now out and Daniel Mengden is now in. This play is STILL ACTIVE. Mengden is 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA and he’s looked good in long relief lately. But starting on the road in this difficult venue is a difficult task on short notice and we think he’ll stumble. Note that he owns a poor 5.04 ERA on the road. Play on the M’s. AAA Sports |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Cardinals -178 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (7-11, 4.24 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this year. The rookie has been trading good starts with bad ones of late. Note that while Suarez is 4-5 with a 3.18 ERA at home, he’s just 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. The Cards’ Miles Mikolas (16-4, 3.01) looks to put the finishing touches on a masterful debut campaign. Note that he’s been particularly dominant at home with a 7-4, 2.23 ERA to this pint. No upsets here, we look for Mikolas to easily get the better of his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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09-22-18 | Phillies v. Braves -140 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8 ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Braves. Both pitchers have been great overall this year, but Phillies’ starter Jake Arrieta has faltered some down the stretch. Mike Foltynewicz hasn’t been perfect this year but he’s been fantastic in all “day” contests this year by going 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA. Arrieta is just 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and only 2-4 with a 4.60 ERA in all “day” contests. Great price on the home side here, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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09-21-18 | Cubs -165 v. White Sox | 4-10 | Loss | -165 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Whenever these cross-town rivals get together it’s an important match-up. We think Jose Quintana comes in focused on the task at hand and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Quintana (13-10, 3.95 ERA) gave up two runs while striking out seven over five innings in an unfortunate loss to Cincinnati on Sunday. It was his sixth straight outing in which he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. Note that Quintana owns a very respectable 3.45 ERA on the road as well. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (6-9, 4.05) who has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he does still come in with a pedestrian 2-3, 4.01 ERA at home. Lopez has been decent, but Quintana comes in on top form. We look for the CUBS to ride the red hot Quintana to another relatively simple victory. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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09-20-18 | Angels v. A's -139 | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland A’s. The visitors go with Matt Shoemaker (2-1, 3.98 ERA) comes in off a poor outing against the Mariners; note that he has a poor 4.96 ERA in all “day” contests. The home side goes with Edwin Jackson (5-3, 3.17) who has been trading good starts with poor ones of late. Overall though Jackson has been as solid as the A’s could have possibly hoped for (note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home as well.) We’re banking on Jackson and the hard-hitting home side finding a way to get the job done here against the “on again, off again” Shoemaker. Play on the ATHLETICS. AAA Sports |
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09-19-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -200 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the LA Dodgers. We’re not expecting any upsets here. The Rockies’ Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.82 ERA) has for the most part been a disaster this year. Last season he was 6-6 with a 4.81 ERA. Note that Anderson has been horrible on the road this year as evidenced by his ballooned 5.28 ERA. The home side goes with Walker Buehler (7-5, 2.88) who went eight shutout innings against the Cards on Friday, going on to strike out nine in the dominant effort. Over 118.2 innings the right-hander now has 131 strikeouts; note as well that he’s been at his best at home with a 2.12 ERA so far. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-18-18 | Royals v. Pirates -195 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates. No upsets here as we look for the red hot Jameson Taillon to easily get the better of the “gas can” Eric Skoglund. Skoglund (1-5, 6.19 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox, but we expect him to struggle in this difficult National League venue. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA on the road. Taillon on the other hand is 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA, including 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -128 | 5-1 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kyle Hendricks has been better over the second half than in the first, but Patrick Corbin has been throwing an elite level since Day 1. Corbin has been at his best at home as well with a 7-3, 2.92 ERA. We love Corbin in this spot and we feel/believe that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the short price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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09-16-18 | Mets +178 v. Red Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. This has already been a surprisingly competitive series and while these pitchers are obviously very evenly matched, we think that Jacob deGrom offers great value in the upset role. deGrom (8-9, 1.71 ERA) has the ability to go inning with inning with any pitcher on the planet right now. And that most definitely swings the value in favor of the underdog in our opinion. Chris Sale (12-4, 1.96 ERA) gets the nod for the home side. Sale’s been fantastic, but this is his first official start since August 12th. We think the rust that Sale will undoubtedly have at the start of this one is all the advantage that deGrom needs right now. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-15-18 | Reds v. Cubs -203 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. No upsets here as we fully expect the veteran Lester to come in focused on the task at hand and to get the better of his erratic counterpart. Cincinnati goes with Cody Reed (0-2, 5.08 ERA) and he’s so far looked shaky in his limited time in the majors. Note that Reed is 0-1 with a 6.08 ERA on the road. Lester (15-6, 3.57) left his last start with lower back tightness after allowing three runs and striking out seven over six innings. He’s been cleared to go here and he comes in sporting the very respectable ERA along with a 1.34 WHIP, while going 8-2 with a 3.19 ERA in all “day” contests. We love Lester to blow the doors off Reed, who we expect to get the hook early. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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09-13-18 | Marlins v. Mets -177 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. We’re not expecting any sort of an upset here tonight. The Fish go with Sandy Alcantara, who in his first star for the Marlins, shut down the Phillies over seven scoreless for the victory on Wednesday. He’d hit three batters though and regression seems imminent to us in this difficult road venue. The home side goes with Stephen Matz (5-11, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season. He most recently earned a win over San Francisco, striking out 11 over seven innings. Matz has turned things around of late after a poor start to the 2018 campaign, one which was marred by injury. Matz appears to hitting his stride now though and we think he’ll easily get the better of the inconsistent Alcantara. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-12-18 | White Sox -136 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago White Sox. We think Carlos Rodon will easily out-duel the inconsistent Erik Skoglund on Wednesday night. Rodon (6-5, 3.11 ERA) most recently gave up four runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Angels on Friday. Despite that though Rodon still owns the very respectable ERA and an elite 1.08 WHIP while holding the opposition to a tiny .188 average. Skoglund (1-5, 6.45) returns to the rotation after appearing out of the bullpen last week for the first time since coming off the 60-day DL. He’s been a complete disaster overall this season, especially at home where he’s just 1-3 with a 6.01 ERA. Bank on Rodon taking advantage. Lay the price, play on the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-11-18 | Braves -132 v. Giants | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. The Braves came out on top 4-1 last night and we think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors go with Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong performances against the Marlins and the Cubs. The hard-throwing right-hander has come into his own in his fifth year in the majors and note that he’s been filthy on the road with a 2.51 ERA record. The home side goes with Andrew Suarez (6-10, 4.33) who has been hit-or-miss over the last month. The rookie has shown flashes of brilliance and the future is clearly bright for Suarez, but note that he’s still just 3-6 with a 4.70 ERA in all “night” contests. Additionally note that the Braves are 35-21 (+8.1 units) this season against clubs with losing records, while the Giants are just 40-50 (-2.3 units) against teams with winning records. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers -159 v. Reds | 6-10 | Loss | -159 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. We look for Alex Wood and the opportunistic visiting side to come in focused on the task at hand and to leave the Monday night a winner. Wood (8-6, 3.37 ERA) who has been super of late, giving up just seven earned runs over his previous six outings combined; note as well that he’s 5-3 with a tiny 3.12 ERA on the road. The Reds go with Cody Reed (0-2, 4.81) who has been hit or miss this year in the big leagues (more “miss” than “hit” though.) While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he’s still own a brutal 6.08 ERA in all “night” contests. Look for Wood and the surging DODGERS to deliver the goods on Monday night. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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09-09-18 | Indians -162 v. Blue Jays | 2-6 | Loss | -162 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe came out on top of a high-scoring 9-8 affair yesterday and we expect the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done here as well with the superior starter on the mound. Cleveland goes with Mike Clevinger (11-7, 3.11 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out ten in a win over KC on Tuesday. Clevinger comes in on top form, having won seven straight. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays as well today is that he own a very sharp 2.68 ERA on the road this season. The home side is forced to turn to Thomas Pannone (1-1, 4.58) who after looking pretty good in his MLB debut against the Orioles, would take a major step back in his second against Baltimore as well most recently, allowing seven runs off nine hits with not strikeouts over three innings. We love Clevinger in this matchup and because of that, we have no issues at all in laying the price. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-18 | Phillies v. Mets -141 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. The Phillies’ Zach Eflin (9-6, 4.05 ERA) has been scuffling for a while now and we think he’s in well over his head in this matchup. Eflin most recently gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a setback to Chicago on Saturday. Since the All-Star Game Eflin has a poor 5.53 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 35:23 K:BB over 42.1 innings of work. The Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (10-3, 3.33) also got smashed by the Cubs in his most recent outing, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision on Monday. Syndergaard has also been scuffling of late, but not nearly as badly as Eflin; also note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA at home. Look for Eflin to continue his slide down the proverbial crapper and for the METS to take full advantage. AAA Sports |
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09-07-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -129 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think the home field advantage turns out to be the difference here. The visitors go with Kevin Gausman (9-9, 3.78 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong outings. Note though that it was against light-weights Miami and Pittsburgh. Clearly Arizona on the road is an entirely different animal. The home side goes with Patrick Corbin (10-5, 3.06) who most recently went five scoreless against the Dodgers on Saturday. Corbin had seven strikeouts in the win and note that he’s been very consistent at home this year with a 6-3, 3.25 ERA so far. We think Gausman finally comes back down to Earth here in this difficult road venue. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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09-05-18 | Reds v. Pirates -210 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates. No upsets here, as we expect the red hot Jameson Taillon to easily out duel his Homer Bailey. Taillon (11-9, 3.45 ER) who most recently got the better of the Braves on Friday by allowing just two runs over seven innings, also going on to strikeout seven. Taillon has now posted seven straight quality efforts as well and a 2.64 ERA over that stretch. Bailey (1-13, 6.13) comes in off another disastrous outing against the Cardinals on Friday, allowing seven runs off nine hits over five innings. Note that Bailey is just 1-9 with a 6.92 ERA in all “night” contests this year. There’s no way that Bailey suddenly “flips a switch” here. Taillon is the correct call here. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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09-04-18 | Orioles v. Mariners -190 | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 32 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Seattle Mariners. No upsets here. One of these starters has been a disaster since Day 1, while the other is getting strong as the season comes to a close. The visitors hand the ball to the beleaguered Alex Cobb (4-15, 5.11 ERA) who gave up five runs off eight hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Wednesday. The struggling right-hander was fortunate as seven of the eight hits he gave up went for extra-bases, meaning that it in fact it could have been a lot worse (note that Cobb is just 4-8 with a 4.52 ERA on the road.) Wade LeBlanc (8-3, 3.71) gets the nod for the home side and he gave up three hits and three walks while striking out four over seven scoreless innings in a victory over Oakland on Thursday. Note that LeBlanc has been sharp at home with a 6-2, 3.95 ERA. We love LeBlanc to continue his sharp play at home and we have no issues at all in laying this price. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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09-03-18 | Cardinals v. Nationals -165 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. Jack Flaherty’s been great, but we think that Max Scherzer is the correct call here. Flaherty (8-6, 2.87 ERA) who has been called up from Triple A to make this difficult spot start. Scherzer (16-6, 2.22) received an extra days rest here, which will clearly only benefit the veteran at this point of the season. Note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA at home. We think Flaherty is the one getting far too much respect here. No upset, lay the price, pay on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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09-02-18 | Mariners v. A's -145 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A’s. Neither starter instills much confidence, but we think that Edwin Jackson will utilize friendly confines and get the better of the Mariners Felix Hernandez. The King (8-12, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year, especially on the road with a 4-7, 6.95 ERA. Jackson (4-3, 3.03) has been fantastic this year and we think the vet carries it over in this favorable situation; note that he’s 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA at home. Look for Hernandez to get the hook early and for Jackson to cruise to victory in front of the home town crowd; play the price, play on the A’S. AAA Sports |
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09-01-18 | Mets v. Giants -130 | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Francisco Giants. We think this line could easily be a lot larger. The Mets go with Stephen Matz (5-11, 4.36 ERA), who comes in off a decent start against Washington but who has struggled overall this year; note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA on the road. The Giants go with Derek Holland (7-8, 3.65) who gave up one run over 6.1 innings while striking out four in a win over the Rangers on Sunday. Over his last three starts the veteran has been on fire, giving up just two runs spanning 16 innings. Note that Holland is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home as well. This one has blowout written all over, lay the price on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -202 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. No upsets here. The Reds send Homer Bailey (1-12, 6.17 ERA) to the hill. Bailey’s disastrous season continues and with no end in sight, we simply can’t see the struggling veteran suddenly “flipping a switch” here. Austin Gomber (4-0, 2.79) will look to take advantage though, he most recently allowed two runs (just one earned) off five hits while stricken gout six over six innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday. Over 48.1 innings he now has a solid 2.79 ERA and note that he’s 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-30-18 | Twins v. Indians -198 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. Jake Odorizzi (5-8, 4.38 ERA) has been serviceable for the Twins this year, but Mike Clevinger (9-7, 3.30) has exceeded expectations for the Tribe. No upsets in this one in our opinion, as we look for Clevinger to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart here. Odorizzi comes in off a couple of poor outings and note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA on the road. Clevinger comes in off a no-decision to KC on Friday despite striking out eight and giving up three runs over seven innings. Over 26 total starts this year he’s posted a quality effort in 16 of them and note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last five trips to the hill. Clevinger is holding his opponents to a respectable .239 average and we think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-29-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -175 | 2-0 | Loss | -175 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both starters have been excellent. So we’re calling them a “wash” in this one. The difference is in the overwhelming trends working in favor of the home side and they make this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. As note that Pittsburgh is a disturbingly poor 2-10 in its last 12 national league night road contests in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. Look for Mikolas to continue his hot play at home and lay the price with confidence; play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-29-18 | A's v. Astros -175 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros (2:10 EST). No upsets here, as we look for Dallas Keuchel to come in focused and get the better of Trevor Cahill. Cahill (5-3, 3.44 ERA) has been fantastic overall for the A’s, but he comes in off a loss and note that while he’s 4-0 with a minuscule 0.85 ERA at home, note that he’s a terrible 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA on the road. Keuchel (10-10, 3.54) comes in off a strong outing against the Angels on Friday and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Note as well that Keuchel owns a sharp 3.29 ERA at home this year. We like Keuchel to continue his strong play at home and we expect Cahill to once again struggle on the road. Lay the price, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-28-18 | A's v. Astros -170 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Houston Astros. Edwin Jackson got out to an unreal start for the A’s, but he’s since slowed down considerably. Astros starter Charlie Morton is also putting together an unbelievable season, but the hard-throwing right-hander isn’t slowing down at all, in fact he appears to be getting even stronger as the season has worn on. Jackson (4-3, 2.97 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. Morton (13-3, 3.05) gave up four and struck out four in a no-decision to Oakland last Friday. Morton though looks poised for a bounce back here throwing at home where he’s 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Lay the price with confidence on the “better” pitcher. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-28-18 | Dodgers -190 v. Rangers | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. No upsets in this one, as we look for Walker Buehler to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart tonight. Buehler (6-4, 2.96 ERA) ave up three hits while striking out nine over seven scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision to St. Louis on Wednesday. He’d go on to post 22 called strikes and 11 swinging strikes on 104 pitches. Note that Buehler is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA on the road as well. Ariel Jurado (2-3, 6.40) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently gave up four runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Tuesday. Over his last three starts he’s given up at least four runs and has a poor 5:5 K:BB over 16.2 frames in that span. No need to overthink this one, lay the price with confidence on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -185 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We’re not expecting any upsets here. Mike Leake (8-7, 3.90 ERA) returns from the DL for the Mariners after his last start was skipped over due to an illness. Leake has been solid overall this year, but the combination of the time off from sickness and the fact that he’s a just 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA in all night games makes Zack Greinke well worth the price of admission in this one. Greinke (12-8, 3.06) gave up three runs in a no-decision over six innings to the Padres on Sunday. Greinke has been dominant at home though with a 5-3, 2.14 ERA. We expect Greinke to continue his dazzling play at home and we believe Leake will get rocked early and often. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-25-18 | Astros -178 v. Angels | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros. Jamie Barria has been solid for the Angels, but Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds and he seems to be getting stronger as the season continues. We think Barria is in over his head here. Barria (8-7, 3.41 ERA) earned a no-decision against the Rangers on Sunday after giving up one run over five innings. As mentioned above, Barria’s been great, but Verlander (12-8, 2.65) has been exceptional. Particularly of late. Note that Verlander comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’s now 10-2 with a 2.09 ERA on the road. Look for HOUSTON to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup and lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-25-18 | Phillies -121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -121 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Philadelphia Phillies. Nick Pivetta (7-10, 4.66 ERA) struggled against the Mets in his last start, but previous to that he looked sharp by giving up just three runs over 18 innings. Pivetta though has been at his best on the road with a 3-3, 3.31 ERA this season. The home side goes with the erratic Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.52) who has been transitioned back to the starting rotation after a stint in the minors on re-hab assignment. Note that he’s 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA at home so far this year and just 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in all “day” contests. Sanchez will be on a count and we like Pivetta and the PHILLIES to step up and take advantage. AAA Sports |
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08-24-18 | Astros -134 v. Angels | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ASSASSIN on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST). This is an interesting match-up, as each starting pitcher enters off a dud after an extended stretch of excellence. We think it favors Dallas Keuchel and Houston though. Keuchel (9-10, 3.59) looked terrible against the A’s in his last start, but note that he’s a very respectable 6-5 with a 3.12 ERA on the road this season. The home side hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (7-7, 4.11) who in fact comes in off back to back poor outings. Heaney’s been sharp overall, especially at home but we think it’s clear that he’s now “running out of gas” at this point of the season. Look for Keuchel and the ASTROS to take advantage. AAA Sports |
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08-24-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -152 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -152 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). We think that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting home side are going to easily take care of business in this favorable inter-league contest. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 5.49 ERA) who is back in the rotation out of necessity. In his first start back he’d predictably get rocked by the Astros; note that he already a horrible 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. Godley (13-6, 4.44) hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been much better over the last two months after a disastrous start. Godley has to be feeling confident here as he’s 6-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season. We believe Ramirez takes another step back under the National League format and in this difficult venue. All things considered, a great price; play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-24-18 | Nationals -144 v. Mets | 0-3 | Loss | -144 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST). While he’s struggled of late, we think that Gio Gonzalez will have more than enough to take care of Mets’ erratic starter Jason Vargas. Gonzalez (7-10, 4.51 ERA) comes in off a couple of shaky outings, but he has the track record and pedigree to finish up the regular season strong and get back on track (or at the very least, get the better of Vargas today.) Vargas (3-8, 7.67) has been a disaster so far for New York, especially at home where he’s 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Look for the NATIONALS to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. AAA Sports |
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08-23-18 | A's -149 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -149 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP PLAY on the Oakland Athletics. This is a monster mismatch on the mound and we feel that Trevor Cahill could/should easily be a much larger favorite in this one. Cahill (5-2, 3.12) went seven scoreless against the Astros on Saturday. He now has a 1.04 WHIP and 85 strikeouts over 86.2 innings. His counterpart is Kohl Steward (0-1, 7.71), who was crushed in his first major league outing, then sent back down to the minors for two weeks, only to be called up again to the big leagues for this start. While the sky could be the limit for Stewart, in our opinion he’s completely over-matched here. Play on the ATHLETICS. AAA Sports |
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08-22-18 | Angels v. Diamondbacks -179 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think Clay Buchholz continues his steady season with an easy victory over Adrisamer Despaigne and the visiting LA Angels on Wednesday night. Despaigne (2-1, 6.29 ERA) gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to the Rangers in his Angels debut over the weekend. Buchholz (6-2, 2.47) went a complete game against the Friars in his last start, given yup one run off five hits with six strikeouts and zero walks. Over five second trips to the hill Buchholz has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 34.1 innings of work. No upsets here as we expect Despaigne to take another step back in this difficult National League venue. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-22-18 | Giants v. Mets -162 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Mets. Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been perfect this season and he’s coming off a couple of “ho-hum” outings, but we still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of Casey Kelly (0-1, 1.69 ERA) and in his first start in the big leagues since 2006 over the weekend he’d give up one run over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds. Syndergaard (8-3, 3.40) has faced some stiff competition of late, most recently throwing opposite Aaron Nola, giving up four runs with five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual setback to the Phillies. As mentioned off the top, he hasn’t been perfect but note that he’s still 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season. We think Syndergaard comes in focused and finds a way to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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08-21-18 | Angels v. Diamondbacks -170 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Felix Pena has been pretty good for the Angels this year, but we think he’s going to stumble against the superior opponent and in this tough ballpark. Pena (1-3, 4.35 ERA) comes in off arguably his best start of the year as well in a victory over the Padres on Wednesday, although he received a no-decision after riving up one run over six innings. Note as well that he’s walked three or more batters four times in his last six trips to the mound. Pena’s peripherals point to regression here. Arizona hands the ball to Patrick Corbin (10-4, 3.18) gave up three runs off six hits with no walk over seven innings in a victory over Texas on Tuesday, also striking out seven. The southpaw has now posted at least seven strikeouts in five straight trips to the hill. Corbin has also been rock solid at home with a 6-3, 3.27 ERA as well. We expect Corbin to easily out duel Pena; lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-20-18 | Indians -100 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians. We like Corey Kluber to get the better of Rick Porcello in this one. Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) seven seven innings and posted seven strikeouts in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander would allow just one opponent past first base and he needed just 96 pitches to get through the performance. Note that Kluber is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA on the road. Porcello (15-5, 4.04) comes in off a strong victory as well over the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up one run over seven innings. Porcello has been shaky of late though and note that he owns the poor 4.89 ERA at home. This is a head-line match-up on Monday night and we expect Kluber to take center stage. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies -180 | 8-2 | Loss | -180 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Nick Pivetta has been steady over the last month and a half and we think that he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his erratic counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas (2-8, 8.10 ERA) who for the most part has been terrible this year. Note that he’s just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA at home. Pivetta (7-9, 4.37) most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no decision to the Red Sox. He’s now thrown three straight quality outings, giving up just three runs over 18 innings. We love Pivetta in this home match-up; lay the price, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks -183 v. Padres | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s a monumental mismatch on the mound and we’re not expecting any upsets. The visitors go with Zack Greinke (12-8, 3.00 ERA) who gave up four runs over seven innings in a loss to Texas on Monday. Greinke though had posted eight straight starts in which he’d given up two runs or fewer, so we’re not reading too much into one sub-par effort. Note that he’s been decent on the road with the 7-5, 3.50 ERA record. The home side goes with Brett Kennedy (0-2, 11.00) who most recently gave up five runs over five innings to the Angels on Tuesday. Kennedy’s been a disaster in the big leagues, yielding 11 runs off 20 hits over nine innings. Greinke’s been a lot better in front of the home town crowd than on the road, but he benefits from the pitcher friendly park and in facing off against a confirmed “gas can.” Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-18 | Astros -141 v. A's | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. We like the visitors to come out on top of this one. The Astros hand the ball to ace Justin Verlander (11-8, 2.52 ERA) who comes in off a loss against the Rockies on Tuesday, given gnu two runs over six innings, walking none and striking out 11. Note that Verlander is 9-2 with a 1.74 ERA on the road this year. The home side goes with Sean Manaea (11-8, 3.44) who went 2.2 innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing three runs and five hits with three walks and one strikeout. Manaea’s been sharp overall this year, but this latest performance was a big step-back in our eyes. Advantage Verlander, who we expect to continue his dominant run away from friendly confines. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-18 | Royals v. White Sox -143 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago White Sox. We think the home side will find a way to get the job done here in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Heath Fillmyer (1-1, 3.61 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits against the Jays on Tuesday, striking out three and walking five. Note that he owns a horrible 24:22 K:BB over 42.1 innings of work and he’s been poor on the road with a 5.01 ERA to this point. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.40) who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Monday. For the most part Lopez has struggled this year as well, but he’s been decent at home with a 3.53 ERA so far. We like Lopez to get the better of Fillmyer; lay the price, play on the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-19-18 | Giants v. Reds -106 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds. We think the home side will find a way to get the job done in this one. The home side goes with Andrew Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA) who went six scoreless in an no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Note though that Suarez though has struck out five or less in seven straight while posting a poor 28:14 K:BB over 38.2 innings in the span. The home side counters with Luis Castillo (6-10, 5.04) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Sunday, allowing five runs. Castillo has struggled for the most part this year, but note that the second year pro has been at his best at home with a very respectable 3.54 ERA. We think the Giants’ rookie takes another step back. Play on the REDS. AAA Sports |
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08-18-18 | Dodgers -132 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers hammered the Mariners 11-1 last night and while Seattle would like to atone for that shoddy effort, this is a match-up on the mound which is not in its favor at all. We think LA carries over its offensive momentum and we look for veteran Rich Hill to easily get the better of Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez (0-2, 6.75 ERA) works his way back from injury, but overall this season he’s struggled. Last year he was 5-6 with a 4.39 ERA. Hill (5-4, 3.57) continues to gain momentum as the season wares on, off a couple of strong outings, he’s now posted a 1.40 ERA over his last 30 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA on the road. No revenge here as Hill outlasts Ramirez and the visiting DODGERS get it done. AAA Sports |
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08-17-18 | Dodgers -127 v. Mariners | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. Walker Buehler (5-4, 3.32 ERA) comes in off back-to-back strong outings for LA and he now owns a sharp 1.06 WHIP and 79:16 K:BB over 74.1 innings of work. Also note that Buehler owns an elite 2.31 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side goes with Wade LeBlanc (7-2, 3.80) who gave up one run over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Texas on Monday. Previous to that he’d been rocked for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 frames in a loss to the Astros. LeBlanc has been decent this year, but we think Buehler carries over his recent momentum; great value, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-17-18 | Cubs -125 v. Pirates | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. We had a play on the Cubs yesterday and we’re back on them again here. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels (7-9, 4.22 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out nine and walking one in an unfortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Over his first 18 innings for his new club Hamels has allowed just two earned runs. The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-8, 3.66) who went seven scoreless in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Williams has been on point of late, having posted four scoreless efforts out of his last five trips to the hill. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-11 in their last 14 at home underdog in the +105 to +135 range. We like Hamels to get the better of Williams and we look for the CUBS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Chicago. AAA Sports |
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08-17-18 | Astros -130 v. A's | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. We think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying what we feel to be a very reasonable price all things considered. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.88 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a 3-1 victory over San Francisco on Monday. Morton has now posted three straight quality starts, a stretch of 19 innings with a 1.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts. The home side goes with Edwin Jackson (4-2, 2.48) who comes in off two straight victories and who after going 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA, has defied the odds in 2018 to become a very interesting matchup. Jackson though faces a stiff test here in the defending champs prolific line-up and we think he’ll finally stumble. We like Morton in this match-up, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-17-18 | Marlins +305 v. Nationals | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. |
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08-17-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -167 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees We had a play on the Yanks and they came up short 3-1 at home to Blake Snell and the Rays. While that play fell short, we think the home side will bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.03 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with one walk while striking out two over five innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Stroman has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still a brutal 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Lance Lynn (8-8, 4.46) who gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Saturday, also going on to strike out eight. Over 16.2 innings as a Yankee, Lynn has posted a 0.54 ERA and a 22:4 K:BB. As good as Stroman has been of late, we’re still giving Lynn the big nod in this match-up. Expect the YANKEES to respond for the home town crowd after yesterday’s poor effort. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-16-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the St. Louis Cardinals. We like the Cards to build off yesterday’s 4-2 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (7-12, 4.12 ERA) who gave up two run off nine hits over 7.2 innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Roark right now, who has turned his season around over the last month. Note that he’s still just 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA in all “night” contests though. The home side goes with Luke Weaver (6-10, 4.66) who’s last start was skipped over because of a minor finger issue. Weaver has been serviceable, but note that the Cards are indeed surging right now, now 12-2 (+9.4 units) in August. Washington comes in sitting at 60-61 overall and note that it’s a horrible 5-13 (-11.5 units) in its last 18 against clubs with winning records. Roark takes a step back and the CARDINALS build off yesterday’s solid win. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-16-18 | Cubs -101 v. Pirates | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Cubs. We like the Cubs to build off their 8-4 home win over the Brewers yesterday, while we expect Pittsburgh to stumble here as it returns home off a 6-4 loss at Minnesota yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA), who has scuffled a bit of late but who overall has been solid across the board; note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road with the 7-2, 3.48 ERA record (he’s also 5-3 with a 3.01 ERA in all “night” contests). The home side goes with Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42) who earned a no-decision against the Cards on Saturday after giving up four runs off eight hits with three walks over four innings. Since the start of July Nova has a 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 17:10 K:BB spanning six starts. Lester has had his difficulties of late, but Nova’s struggles have been much greater. In our opinion a great price play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |