08-28-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Dodgers -193 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the LA Dodgers.
The Dodgers have inexplicably come up short in back-to-back Clayton Kershaw gems and suffice it to say, we don't expect that to happen a third time as in our professional opinion, the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Kershaw (10-6, 2.29 ERA) has to be feeling a bit better about his offense though as it just went into Cincinnati and swept the reeling Reds; also note that Kershaw has given up one earned run or less in nine of his last ten starts, a stretch which includes two shutouts and an ERA of 0.94. And that's bad news for a Cubs team which comes in off a 9-1 loss at San Francisco last night; the visitors hand the ball to Jason Hammel (7-5, 3.35 ERA) who is 2-4 with a 4.96 ERA in his last 11 starts vs. the Dodgers. This is an important game for both teams, but more so for the DODGERS who also clearly have the superior starting backing them tonight.
AAA Sports
|
08-28-15 |
Seattle Mariners -113 v. Chicago White Sox |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners.
The White Sox are five games out of the AL's final wild-card spot and hurdling four other teams seems pretty much impossible at this point. Seattle will look to bounce back after dropping the opener of this three-game series 4-2 last night and to take advantage of confirmed "gas can" John Danks (6-11, 4.90 ERA) who is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA over his last two outings. Also note, the M's have to be feeling pretty confident here as they just beat Danks 8-6 on Sunday, shelling the southpaw for seven runs and eight hits over five innings. The Mariners went 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position last night, but facing the volatile Danks tonight will result in a different outcome in those instances. The visitors counter with Taijuan Walker (9-7, 4.73 ERA) who has looked shaky at times this season and dominant in others; note that Walker improved to 2-0 in his last seven starts after Sunday's victory over the White Sox. We're giving Walker the slight nod in this matchup and that's going to be just enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today in our opinion, play on SEATTLE.
AAA Sports
|
08-28-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. New York Mets -193 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-193 |
22 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the New York Mets.
The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price in our opinion. The surging home side turns to ace Matt Harvey (11-7, 2.57 ERA) who is 5-3 with a tiny 1.45 ERA in his last 11 starts, going 4-0 with a minuscule 1.11 ERA in his past seven home games. New York has been on fire at the plate of late, the offense has plated 73 runs over its current seven-game win skein, while batting .338 with 19 home runs. And that's bad news for rookie left-hander Henry Owens (2-1, 4.50 ERA) who has been hit and miss in his first four major league starts. We'll give Harvey the big nod on the bump, the Mets the big nod at the plate and with those two crucial factors clearly working in our favor, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the METS.
AAA Sports
|
08-27-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. San Francisco Giants -175 |
|
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the San Francisco Giants.
For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Madison Bumgarner has the clear advantage and that makes this a price that we have no issues at all in laying. The visitors send Dan Haren (8-8, 3.63 ERA) to the hill who was shelled for four runs off six hits over 4 1/3's innings in a loss to the Braves on Saturday. Haren has been a complete "gas can" since coming over from the Marlins, he's yet to throw more than 5 1/3's innings and owns a deplorable 6.06 ERA as a member of the Cubs. The home side counters with the Bumgarner (14-6, 2.98 ERA) who went 6 1/3's innings, with six K's in a victory over the Pirates on Friday; Bumgarner and the Giants have to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling here as he's 7-2 with a tiny 2.05 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price, play on the GIANTS.
AAA Sports
|
08-27-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -135 v. Texas Rangers |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-135 |
18 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays.
In the midst of a division race with the Yankees, the Blue Jays will be giving 110% percent in every game from now until the end of the regular season and we think that determination will once again translate into production at the plate in this one. Toronto is rolling, it won its fifth straight last night and now turns to Marco Estrada (10-7, 3.20 ERA) who picked up his 11th win of the season in a blowout victory over the Angels on Saturday, going 5 2/3's innings, while allowing three runs off five hits. Note that over his last five starts Estrada is now a fantastic 4-1 with a highly respectable 2.38 ERA and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Yovani Gallardo (9-9, 3.39 ERA), who went six scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over the Tigers on Saturday. We're not reading too much into that outing though, Gallardo had been an absolute "gas can" previous to that gem, posting a poor 5.44 ERA in eight starts. We're giving the nod to Estrada on the mound, the JAYS the big nod in the momentum department and at the plate and with those three big factors working in our favor, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value" in our professional opinion.
AAA Sports
|
08-26-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -165 v. Texas Rangers |
|
12-4 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays are rolling and we expect them to continue their momentum here in this favorable matchup. Troy Tulowitzki's hit in the top of the ninth gave Toronto its fifth straight victory and the team is obviously feeling extremely confident here by sending ace David Price (12-4, 2.40 ERA) to the hill, he's 3-0 with a tiny 1.78 ERA over his four starts since coming over from Detroit, most recently giving up two runs while striking out nine over eight frames in his team's 9-2 win over the Angels on Friday. Texas had its three game win streak snapped and all signs point to another letdown here. And that's bad news for Colby Lewis (14-5, 4.29 ERA) who for the most part has been as consistent as the Rangers could possibly ask for this season, but who owns a brutal 7.12 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Jays. We're giving Price the clear nod in this matchup, the Jays the big nod at the plate and with those two crucial factors working in our favor, we do indeed have no issues whatsoever in laying this larger price. Play on TORONTO.
AAA Sports
|
08-25-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays -140 |
Top |
11-7 |
Loss |
-140 |
21 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Tampa Bay Rays.
We think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Twins and look for the Rays to extend their four-game home win skein behind what we believe to be the clearly superior starter. Tampa will be extra motivated here as well as the Twins sit one game ahead of the Rays in the crowded wild-card race. The visitors turn to Ervin Santana (2-4, 5.53 ERA) who was shelled for four runs over 7 2/3's innings in a 4-3 loss to the Yankees on Wednesday. Santana is now 0-4 with a deplorable 8.46 ERA over his last five starts. Also note that Santana is just 6-6 with a poor 4.98 ERA in 14 starts vs. the Rays. The home side counters with impressive rookie Nathan Karns (7-5, 3.44 ERA) who has given up two runs or fewer in an AL-leading 18 outings, going 3-0 with a highly respectable 2.81 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in our professional opinion Karns and the RAYS have a significant advantage today and that makes this a price that we have no issues at all in laying.
AAA Sports
|
08-25-15 |
New York Mets -190 v. Philadelphia Phillies |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets.
The Mets annihilated the Phillies 16-7 yesterday behind a franchise record eight home runs. David Wright homered in his first at bat after returning from injury. With the clearly superior starter backing this offensive juggernaut, we have no issues at all in laying this price. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (7-6, 3.17 ERA) who has inexplicably struggled on the road this year, going 0-5 with a 5.05 ERA, compared to a 1.82 ERA in front of the home town crowd; Syndergaard has to be feeling pretty confident that he can stop the trend of futility though as when he last faced the Phillies back on May 27th, he'd strike out six over 7 1/3's scoreless innings. The home side counters with Jerome Williams (4-9, 6.10 ERA) who was shelled for eight runs off eight hits while walking four over just 1 2/3's innings in a 9-7 loss at Miami in his last start. We'll give Syndergaard the slight nod on the mound, the Mets the big nod at the plate and with those two factors working on our side, we'll go ahead and pull the trigger on the larger price; play on the METS.
AAA Sports
|
08-24-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Chicago White Sox -131 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-131 |
31 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago White Sox.
After four straight wins the Red Sox would stumble in a 6-3 loss to Kansas City on Saturday and then again late in the finale of the four game set in an 8-6 defeat yesterday. It was an anti-climatic end to a nine-game homestand and now the team hits the road for the first time in two weeks and suffice it to say, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown spot. Boston hands the ball to Joe Kelly (5-6, 5.69 ERA) who gave up one unearned run over six innings in a victory over the Tribe on Wednesday. Kelly has been consistently inconsistent this year though and has been particularly inept in this position all season, a poor 2-3 with a ballooned 5.63 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (8-8, 4.78 ERA) who was good enough to win in his last start, giving up one run off eight hits over seven innings in an unfortunate setback to the Angels on Wednesday; note that the hard-throwing right-hander had seven K's as well. It's obviously been one of Samardzija's most frustrating season's of his career, but the veteran has looked sharp of late and he'll be eager to finish the season strong so as to raise his "stock" going into 2016. This is a fantastic situational play for a couple of different reasons and when combined with what we feel to be an extremely reasonable price on the clearly superior starter who has the advantage of throwing in front of the home town crowd, it makes this a selection that we'll fire away on without hesitation; play on the WHITE SOX.
AAA Sports
|
08-23-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -144 v. San Diego Padres |
|
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.
We like the Cardinals to finally show up today and salvage the final of this three-game set in which they were shutout for the second time in their last four games in yesterday's 8-0 defeat. The difference maker today though is the massive talent discrepancy on the mound, St. Louis has to be feeling pretty good about its chances today in sending Michael Wacha (14-4, 2.85 ERA) to the hill, who is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.00 ERA over his last four starts, most recently going seven in a 2-1 win over the Giants on Monday. It's true that the Friars have had St. Louis' number over the last couple of years, but they'll be in tough here in countering with Colin Rea (2-0, 4.22 ERA) who was the beneficiary of a ton of offensive support in his first victory (11-6 over the Reds on August 11th), before looking adequate in a 5-3 win over the anemic Braves on Monday. Also note that it's now unclear who will be catching for Rea after Derek Norris injured his hand last night, a strong situational factor which can't be overlooked, but especially when it's a rookie pitcher. Wacha is clearly the superior starter, but we also have motivational and situational factors working on our side as well here, so in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the CARDINALS.
AAA Sports
|
08-22-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Washington Nationals -150 |
Top |
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals.
We think the line value is too good to turn down here as we look for the home side to lead wire-to-wire in a convincing victory on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Jungmann (7-4, 2.23 ERA) who went 6 1/3's scoreless innings, while striking out nine in a win over the Phillies on Sunday. Jungmann has been trading good starts with bad and there's no question that the rookie is going to be in tough in the nation's capital and throwing opposite Joe Ross (3-5, 3.86 ERA) who is coming off a loss vs. the Giants on Sunday, giving up four runs off six hits over four innings of work. Ross though has been money when throwing in front of the home town crowd this year having posted a highly respectable 2.55 ERA thus far. We'll give Ross the slight nod in this matchup, home field advantage can not be overlooked obviously between these two youngsters, but ultimately we feel that WASHINGTON's powerful lineup will just be too much for Jungmann and with those two crucial facts working in our favor, this indeed becomes a price that we have no issues at all in laying.
AAA Sports
|
08-21-15 |
San Francisco Giants -130 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the San Francisco Giants.
The visitors have a favorable matchup tonight and we expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (14-6, 2.98 ERA) who threw a complete game shutout, while matching a season-high with 14K's and just one walk in a victory over the Nationals on Sunday. Bumgarner would also dominate at the plate, going 2 for 3 with a double, a home run and two RBI's. Bumgarner is 7-4 on the road and has posted a 2.97 ERA in all "night" contests this season. The home side counters with Jeff Locke (6-7, 4.31 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits over 5 1/3's innings of work in a no-decision vs. the Mets on Sunday. Previous to that Locke had lost three of his last four decisions and while he's been better at home than on the road, his poor 4.58 "night game" ERA leaves something to be desired. With the Giants in striking distance of the final Wild Card position, we like their ace to out-duel the overmatched home side's hurler and in our opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the GIANTS.
AAA Sports
|
08-21-15 |
Kansas City Royals -145 v. Boston Red Sox |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-145 |
24 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Kansas City Royals.
The Red Sox have won three straight, but I think will run into a brick wall today facing Royals' red hot starter Johnny Cueto (2-1, 1.80 ERA) who will look to get his team back into the win column after it lost for the first time in five games in the opener of this three-game set. Cueto has been great since coming over to the Royals, he's pitched into at least the sixth inning in all four of his outings since being acquired, most recently he'd give up one run over eight innings in a 9-4 win over the Angels on Friday. Boston has been rolling, but we believe it will be in tough here in having to hand the ball to Henry Owens (1-1, 6.19 ERA), who comes in after getting shelled for seven runs vs. the Mariners on Saturday. We base our MLB picks almost primarily on the starting pitching and in our professional opinion, Cueto and the ROYALS have enough significant factors working in their favor to pull the trigger on this one.
AAA Sports
|
08-19-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -190 v. Philadelphia Phillies |
|
4-7 |
Loss |
-190 |
26 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays.
We like the wily veteran to dominate his rookie counterpart, when the smoke clears at the end of this one we're expecting a lopsided destruction from wire-to-wire. The visitors hand the ball to Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings in a victory over Oakland on Thursday. Buehrle has won four straight starts and has 16 quality starts out of his last 17 outings, while giving up just 12 earned runs in his last 47 2/3's innings covering his last seven trips to the mound. The Jays have to be liking their chances today as Buehrle is 9-2 with a very respectable 3.09 ERA in all "night" games this year (also 6-4, 3.48 ERA on the road). The home side counters with Adam Morgan (3-4, 4.11 ERA) who gave up three runs in a setback to the Brewers on Friday. So far Morgan has been all over the map with his performance, but if there's been one firm thing that we can glean from the youngster it's been his inconsistent play at home where he's posted a poor 4.22 ERA thus far. Philadelphia doesn't even have any motivation here to play spoiler, we like the JAYS to come in focused and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup.
AAA Sports
|
08-18-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -166 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Angels.
The visitors hand the ball to John Danks (6-9, 4.58 ERA) who looked decent in his last start, giving up one run off five hits over 7 1/3's innings in a no-decision vs. these very same Angels last Wednesday. If there's one thing that Danks has been this year though, it's been "inconsistent," and note that this is a spot in which the veteran has struggled in all season as well, as he comes to LA with a poor 2-6, 6.09 ERA road record. The home side counters with Garett Richards (11-9, 3.35 ERA) who gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Thursday. Richards has been pretty mediocre down the stretch, he's now given up at least three runs in each of his past five starts and it's resulted in his ERA rising from 3.25 to 3.55 over that stretch. Richards though has to be feeling that he can bounce back here as he's a commanding 7-3 with a tiny 2.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. In our professional opinion, this is a massive mismatch and that makes this a price that we have no issues at all in laying, play on the ANGELS.
AAA Sports
|
08-18-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -190 |
|
8-9 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (5-5, 4.31 ERA), who was shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a 7-6 loss to the Phillies on Wednesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has lost three of his last four starts overall and owns a poor 4.25 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano (8-6, 3.19 ERA), who comes into this one off a victory, giving up three runs off six hits over six innings, while also striking out five vs. the Cardinals on Thursday. The crafty veteran southpaw has to be feeling pretty confident that he can continue the momentum rolling here as he's posted a very respectable 3.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. Look for Liriano and the PIRATES to make the most of this mismatch and lay the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
08-18-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -169 v. Philadelphia Phillies |
|
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays.
We like veteran knuckle-baller RA Dickey and the surging visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Dickey (7-10, 3.96 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a 10-3 win over the A's on Wednesday and there's no question that he comes into this one with a ton of momentum, having won four of his last five starts overall. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (3-1, 4.25 ERA) who was lucky to earn a win in his last start as he was shelled for four runs off nine hits over just 4 2/3's innings, somehow the Phillies offense bailed him out in the 7-6 victory. The rookie's ERA has climbed in each of his last four starts and there's no question that he draws a tough opponent today, the JAYS will look to take advantage in the opener of this favorable interleague matchup, lay the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
08-17-15 |
San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -140 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Cardinals.
A great situational play here in our opinion, the Giants are coming off a win at home and now travel cross country for a tough trip against the league's top team. The Cards are coming off a loss and will be looking to take out their frustrations today. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Heston (11-7, 3.38 ERA) who gave up one run over 6 1/3's innings in an unfortunate setback to the Astros on Wednesday. Heston has now lost two straight starts and it's important to note that he does in fact own a poor 4.45 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (14-4, 2.93 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Pirates on Wednesday (we had Wacha and the Cards in that one); Wacha has now won three straight starts and produced a quality outing in his last four overall. And Wacha has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today as he's 6-2 with a highly respectable 2.56 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. This is a perfect spot for Wacha to take advantage of, in our opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on ST. LOUIS.
AAA Sports
|
08-16-15 |
Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox -139 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Chicago White Sox.
We feel that the line value is simply too great to turn down in this one considering the major talent discrepancy on the mound today. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Haren (8-7, 3.55 ERA) who won for his first time since early July, giving up three runs off five hits over 5 1/3's innings vs. the Brewers on Tuesday. Haren has been the very model of inconsistency this year as he's failed to last six innings in his last two starts and note that he's struggled in this spot all season, a poor 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Chris Sale (10-7, 3.47 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over 7 1/3's innings in an 8-2 victory over the Angels on Monday. Sale broke his two-game losing streak with the dominant effort and the hard-throwing southpaw has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today as he's posted a very respectable 3.22 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, there's no question Sale offers supreme value in this matchup, lay the price with confidence on the WHITE SOX.
AAA Sports
|
08-16-15 |
New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays -130 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays.
After taking the first two games of this series, we like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (0-1, 2.45 ERA) who was solid in his second MLB start vs. the Tribe on Tuesday after giving up two runs off seven hits over six innings. Severino has looked pretty good so far, but obviously the book is still out on the hard-throwing right hander and certainly he draws an extremely tough matchup in his third outing throwing opposite Drew Hutchinson and facing the hard-hitting and revenge minded Jays. "Hutch" (11-2, 5.26 ERA) won for his seventh time in his past eight decision vs. the A's on Tuesday, giving up two runs over seven innings and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling here today as he's a near-perfect 9-1 with a 2.68 ERA in front of the home town crowd (he's also a perfect 4-0 in all "day" games this season). After a couple of sub-par efforts in a row, the one thing we definitely don't have to worry about is Toronto's overall focus today and we think this determination will translate into production at the plate. Combined with what is clearly the superior starter backing them in this matchup, all signs do indeed point to the JAYS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
08-15-15 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets -109 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-109 |
27 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Mets.
We base our MLB selections on starting pitching and situations and in this case we feel we're getting awesome line value on the home side when we take into account each of these hurler's recent performance. The visitors hand the ball to the ever volatile Charlie Morton (7-4, 4.48 ERA) who was fortunate to earn a no-decision after getting shelled for five runs off ten hits over five innings vs. the Dodgers on Sunday. Morton has regressed as the season has progressed, note that he's given up at least three runs in seven of his last nine starts and unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he owns a poor 5.92 ERA away from friendly confines. Jonathon Niese (7-9, 3.46 ERA) is trending in the opposite direction, most recently he'd give up two runs off six hits over seven innings with no walks and five K's in a victory over the Rockies on Monday. The big southpaw has now given up just four runs over 20 innings in his last three starts and owns a respectable 3.24 ERA in all "night" games this season. "Momentum" is a very real thing and recent performance is a fantastic indicator when judging a pitcher from game-to-game, so when you add it all up, there's no question that Niese and the METROPOLITANS are the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
08-14-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Houston Astros -220 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the the Houston Astros.
For a number of different reasons we believe that the Houston Astros and Dallas Keuchel are worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Alfredo Simon (10-6, 4.74 ERA), who was shelled for six runs over 6 2/3's innings vs. Boston on Saturday. He was lucky to receive a no-decision and all signs would point to another tough outing here vs. the hard-hitting Astros as Simon owns a poor 5.64 ERA away from friendly confines. Keuchel (13-6, 2.40 ERA) will be extra motivated here as well after taking a hard luck loss vs. the A's on Friday, the south-paw would match a season-high with 10 hits allowed, but gave up just three runs over 7 2/3's innings in the 3-1 setback. Keuchel is 3-3 with a respectable 3.57 ERA over his past six starts and has to be feeling pretty confident here, he's been unbeatable at home this season, a perfect 10-0 with a minuscule 1.26 ERA. We're banking on the AL starting All-Star to finish the season strong and believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Play on the ASTROS.
AAA Sports
|
08-13-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Chicago Cubs -213 |
|
2-9 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs.
We like playing chalk, especially when we feel the odds are overwhelmingly in our favor and that's the case here, we'd be shocked if the Cubs' Jon Lester didn't find a way to better his pathetic counterpart today. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Cravy (0-3, 5.40 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off eight hits over five innings in a setback to the Cards on Friday. Note that the rookie owns a pedestrian 5.40 ERA in all "night" contests this year and he definitely draws a tough match-up throwing opposite Lester (7-8, 3.22 ERA) who is coming off his third straight victory by allowing two runs off six hits over seven innings, making it the seventh straight start in which the southpaw has gone at least six frames and fourth straight when he's given up two runs or fewer. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, this is a classic David vs. Goliath scenario, only this time Goliath takes David yard! Lay the price with confidence on the CUBS.
AAA Sports
|
08-12-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. New York Mets -181 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets.
The visitors hand the ball to Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.85 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a 5-4 come from behind win vs. the Nationals on Friday, he'd receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort. The 12-year veteran has regressed as the season has progressed, he's just 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA over his past six starts and there's no question that he draws a tough matchup throwing opposite the Mets' Jacob DeGrom (10-6, 2.13 ERA) who is also coming off a no-decision, but he however looked great in doing so, ultimately giving up two runs off six hits over 6 1/3's innings while walking none and striking out seven vs. the Rays on Friday. DeGrom has given up two runs or less in each of his past five starts and has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's 5-2 with a minuscule 1.60 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. This is an absolute mismatch on all levels and that makes this a price that we have no issues at all in laying, play on the METS.
AAA Sports
|
08-11-15 |
Washington Nationals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -174 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the LA Dodgers.
The visitors hand the ball to Joe Ross (3-3, 2.80 ERA), who held Arizona to one run on five hits over six innings, walking none and striking out seven on Thursday. The rookie now has six consecutive quality starts, a span in which he's surrendered only 11 runs in 40 total innings; also note that Ross owns a spectacular 2.25 ERA in all "night" games this year. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (11-2, 1.71 ERA), who is coming off his worst outing so far this year, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over six innings, walking two, while striking out eight. It was bound to happen for Greinke, those types of games happen to every pitcher at some point over the course of the season, so with that expected "dud" out of the way, the Dodgers' ace will be looking to bounce back with his trademark dominance and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA at home and owns a tiny 1.72 ERA in all "night" games. As primarily "situational" handicappers, these are exactly the types of scenarios that we're constantly on the look out for as we expect the league's best hurler to bounce back large here, the confidence will not be shaken whatsoever, as good as Ross has been of late, this is a tough match-up for the youngster and that makes the DODGERs and Greinke the sharp move here, we have no issues at all in laying this larger price.
AAA Sports
|
08-10-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals -202 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Kansas City Royals.
One of the biggest pitching mismatches on the board makes us confident in laying this larger price, we fully expect Royals' ace Johnny Cueto to outduel his lowly counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (1-2, 7.90 ERA) who was destroyed in his first start in the bigs vs. the Tigers, only to then rebound with a decent effort in his second start against the Royals on Wednesday, giving up one run over seven innings in the victory. With the win Boyd dropped his ERA from 14.85 to 7.90, but there's no question that the book is still out on this guy and he certainly draws a tough matchup throwing opposite Cueto (7-7, 2.69 ERA) who will be out to avenge the setback vs. Boyd last week; note that Cueto was equally as impressive by giving up two earned runs off five hits over seven innings of work. Cueto has to be feeling pretty confident that he'll get his revenge today as he's 3-1 with a tiny 1.86 ERA in all home contests this year. We're giving Cueto the big nod on this matchup and thats more than enough to tip the scales in our favor, play on the ROYALS.
AAA Sports
|
08-10-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. New York Mets -161 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Mets.
The massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the larger price on the home side, in fact, the gap is so large that we feel we are definitely getting fantastic line value in this matchup. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best and simplest way to evaluate the starting pitchers is by looking at "recent performance," and in this case, there's no question that the Mets' Jonathon Niese has the massive upper-hand. Niese (6-9, 3.51 ERA) is coming off a gem on Tuesday, he gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out six in a 5-1 win over the Marlins. The southpaw has now given up three runs or fewer in ten of his past 11 outings. The Rockies' Jon Gray (0-0, 4.50 ERA) is trending in the opposite direction, the rookie was pulled after four innings and 77 pitching during his MLB debut Tuesday vs. the Mariners. Gray is not expected to see many innings in this one either says manager Walt Weiss: “It’s pretty restrictive,” Weiss confirmed of Gray's pitch count. After sweeping the Nationals and Marlins and taking the first game of their short two-game interleague series with the Rays, New York would finally stumble to Tampa on Sunday. But the team obviously has nothing to hang its head about, quite the contrary in fact as the METROPOLITANS have a 1.5-game lead over the Nationals and have to be loving their chances to extend the lead in this favorable game and series matchup, we're laying the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
08-09-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -130 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
20 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the New York Yankees.
The Jays are on the cusp of catching the Yankees in the AL East, but after dropping the first two games of this important series, we like the home side to bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Estrada (9-6, 3.40 ERA), who besides a five run blunder back on July 24th, has been pretty sharp of late, going 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last six starts. Note though that Estrada has already struggled against the Evil Empire this year, he was rocked for five runs off eight hits over just 4 2/3's innings in a 6-3 loss at home to the Yanks back on May 5th. The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (8-4, 3.84 ERA) who is coming off his eighth win of the year, the hard-throwing right-hander would give up three runs off five hits over six innings in a 13-3 spanking of the Red Sox on Tuesday. Tanaka has been solid at home (6-2) and in all "day" games (3-2). Clearly this is not a do or die situation, but we do think the home side will be playing with pride and be the more motivated team today, it's hard not to imagine the Jays being already being somewhat contented in having wrapped up the series victory, there's no question that this lines up as a classic "letdown" spot for Toronto. We're laying the short price, play on NEW YORK.
AAA Sports
|
08-08-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels -135 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
31 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Angels.
The visitors hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez (8-7, 4.04 ERA), who is coming off a third straight disastrous performance, this time he was shelled for six runs off six hits over just 4 2/3's innings in a setback to Detroit on Sunday; note that Jimenez has now giving up 22 earned runs over his last 18 2/3's innings and is a poor 2-5 with a ballooned 5.25 ERA on the road this season. Jimenez faces a tough opponent today in Garrett Richards (11-8, 3.46 ERA) who struck out a season-high 11 batters in his team's 5-4 win over the Tribe on Monday, giving up four runs off four hits over 7 1/3's innings. Note that Richards has been particularly dominant at home this year by going 7-2 with a tiny 2.36 ERA. The price is definitely right here, look for the ANGELS to chase Jimenez early and for Richards to notch another victory.
AAA Sports
|
08-07-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -155 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Kansas City Royals.
We feel we're getting great value here, some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason, but in our opinion, Edinson Volquez and the Royals should in fact be much larger ones. The visitors hand the ball to John Danks (6-8, 4.80 ERA), who despite giving up one run and three hits over 5 2/3's innings, including handing out four walks, would come away with the victory over the Yanks on Saturday. Note though that if Danks has displayed one weakness this season, it's clearly been his play on the road where he's just 2-5 with a ballooned 6.29 ERA (also a sub-par 4-5 with a 5.20 ERA in all "night" games). Volquez (10-6, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a decent outing, but took the 5-2 loss to the Jays on Sunday, allowing two runs off four hits over six innings, while also striking out three in the process. Volquez has to be feeling pretty confident today about a bounce back though as he's 6-2 with a tiny 2.74 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. No need to over-think this one, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and without question this one sets up as one of the biggest mismatches on the board. Lay the price with confidence on the ROYALS.
AAA Sports
|
08-06-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -153 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The sheer talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price in our opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (12-4, 3.09 ERA) who is coming off a superb outing in which he threw seven scoreless vs. the Rockies on Friday, giving up four hits, just one walk while striking out seven in the process. Wacha and the Cards have to be liking their chances in this matchup as he's 7-2 with a very respectable 3.57 ERA on the road this season and 4-2 with a tiny 2.37 ERA in all "day" games. The home side counters with confirmed "gas can" Michael Lorenzen (3-6, 4.80 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for five runs off six hits over 5 2/3's innings vs. the Pirates on Friday, finishing with a deplorable 0-4, 8.61 ERA record in the month of July (also note that "home field advantage" has been anything but for the Reds rookie as he's just 1-3 with a ballooned 4.88 ERA in Cincinnati). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, you won't find a bigger mismatch on Wednesday, lay the price with confidence on the CARDINALS.
AAA Sports
|
08-05-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -155 |
|
11-4 |
Loss |
-155 |
29 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Nationals.
I played on the Nationals yesterday as well and also love them in this match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa, who gave up four runs off eight hits over six frames vs. Houston on Friday; note that De La Rosa has now allowed at least four earned runs and eight hits in three of his last five starts and is just 2-4 with a poor 5.14 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.75 ERA) who is coming off a mediocre start in which he gave up one run off four hits over 4 2/3's innings in a no-decision vs. the Mets on Friday. Gonzalez though has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back today though as he's a near-perfect 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd. This is a super important series for the home side as they look to leap-frog the Mets for the division lead, so there's no question in our minds that the NATIONALS are worth the price of admission in this matchup.
AAA Sports
|
08-05-15 |
Kansas City Royals -165 v. Detroit Tigers |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-165 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Kansas City Royals.
The massive talent discrepancy on the mound in this matchup absolutely justifies in laying the price in our opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (7-6, 2.70 ERA) who went six innings and gave up three runs off seven hits in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Friday. No need to panic if you're a Cueto fan though, he'd finish 3-1 with a tiny 2.03 ERA in six July starts. The home side counters with confirmed "gas can" Buck Farmer (0-2, 8.50 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over 4 1/3's innings in a setback to the Orioles on Friday; note that Farmer has now given up 15 earned runs over his three starts. With a chance to distance themselves further in the AL Central, we fully expect Cueto to make the most of this matchup in his second start for his new team, lay the price with confidence on the ROYALS.
NOTICE: There has been an early morning starting pitching change for the Tigers, Farmer is out and Matt Boyd is in; THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Boyd came over in the David Price trade last week with the Jays and is a confirmed "gas can," losing both starts he made with Toronto while posting a deplorable 14.85 ERA in the process. PLAY STILL VALID.
AAA Sports
|
08-04-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Washington Nationals -189 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Nationals.
The Nats have lost four straight after yesterday's 6-4 setback and now sit one game behind the Mets for first place in the NL East. As good as Patrick Corbin has been for the visitors since returning from Tommy John surgery, I'm giving the nod to Max Scherzer in this matchup. Scherzer (11-8, 2.22 ERA) is 2-0 with a tiny 1.29 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks lifetime and is second in the league in opponent batting average (.193) and WHIP (0.83) and fifth in ERA and strikeouts (172). Also note that Scherzer comes in with a ton of momentum after pitching seven innings of three-hit ball in his teams 1-0 win at Miami. The home side is 13-8 vs. southpaws which is bad news for Corbin (2-3, 3.21 ERA) who is 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Washington. Recent scuffling at the plate has been the Nationals main issue, but this also works in our favor in this one, it's almost impossible to imagine Washington not coming in razor focused on the task at hand. We feel that there are enough significant factors working in favor of the NATIONALS to pull the trigger on the higher price.
AAA Sports
|
08-03-15 |
Seattle Mariners -160 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
8-7 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Seattle Mariners. We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying what we do in fact feel to be a very fair price as we expect “The King” to bounce back from a rare poor performance. Hernandez (12-6, 3.02 ERA) was shelled for seven runs and 12 hits over 6 2/3’s innings in an 8-2 home loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Hernandez fan though obviously, he had posted a 1.09 mark with 32 K’s and four walks in 33 innings over a five game stretch previous and has already gone 4-0 with a minuscule 0.51 ERA in five starts this season since taking a loss (also note that Hernandez has not been beaten in consecutive starts since dropping four straight in August of 2013). The M’s come in with momentum as well after beating the Twins 4-1 on Sunday, while the Rockies are coming off a 3-2 loss at St. Louis on Sunday, falling to 5-10 since the All-Star break. The home side counters with rookie Eddie Butler (3-7, 4.82 ERA) who has gone 0-3 with a 5.95 ERA in his last four starts in front of the home town crowd and who is 0-1 with a pedestrian 4.91 ERA in two starts since getting recalled from Triple-A, most recently giving up three runs over five frames in his team’s 3-2 loss at the Cubs on Wednesday. Butler should be cautious of Seattle slugger Nelson Cruz, who is hitting .407 with eight dingers and 12 RBI during a 13-game hitting streak. As hot as the Rockies have been at the plate in front of the home town crowd, this is clearly one of the largest pitching mismtaches in recent memory, lay the price with confidence on Hernandez and the MARINERS. AAA Sports
|
08-02-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. St. Louis Cardinals -180 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals’ starting pitcher Jaime Garcia has pitched well but he’s been the victim of poor run support. After falling to the Rockies on Saturday though, we look for the home side to rally and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Garcia (3-4, 2.00 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss to the Reds last Tuesday and while he’s had his hands full with the Rockies in the past, note that Colorado is a league-worst 5-17 vs. southpaws this year. The Cards have to be feeling pretty confident that they can bounce back here though obviously, they’ve taken 16 of the last 20 meetings between the teams at Busch Stadium despite yesterday’s 6-2 setback. The visitors counter with lefty Yohan Flande (1-1, 3.68 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in a 7-2 win over the Cubs on Tuesday, his first start of the season. Obviously it’s way too early to make any solid conclusions about Flande, but note that he was 0-6 with a 5.77 ERA over his first ten starts last season (and note, the only time that Flande faced the Cardinals was in his major league debut and he’d predictably get rocked, giving up four runs over five innings in the eventual 9-6 setback). The CARDINALS have enough situational and motivational factors working in their favor to make this a price that we can live with paying. AAA Sports
|
07-31-15 |
Washington Nationals v. New York Mets -121 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New York Mets. This obviously won’t be a cake walk, but we think Matt Harvey and the Mets find a way to get the job and believe that this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” The visitors trot out Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.83 ERA) who despite giving up three runs to the Pirates on Saturday, would come away with the 9-3 victory, giving up five hits over six-plus innings. Gonzalez has been as solid as the Nationals could possibly ask for this year, but if there’s been one area of weakness to his game it’s clearly been his play on the road where he is a pedestrian 3-3 with a ballooned 5.04 ERA. Harvey (9-7, 3.16 ERA) also comes in with plenty of momentum as he’d give up two runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out four in a 15-2 victory over the Dodgers on Saturday. Harvey has to be feeling pretty confident that he can continue the momentum as he’s 6-2 with a highly respectable 2.91 ERA at home this year. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down, play on the METROPOLITANS. AAA Sports
|
07-30-15 |
Washington Nationals -165 v. Miami Marlins |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer 10-8 (2.33 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, the last time out the Nats’ ace would struggle, giving up five runs off seven hits over five innings in a setback to the Pirates on Friday. This of course was a month after he had no-hit Pittsburgh. It was just the sixth time in Scherzer’s career that he’s given up three home runs in a game and the last time was in September of 2011. Scherzer and the Nationals have to be feeling pretty confident today that he can bounce back though as this is a spot in which he’s dominated in all season, going 6-3 with a 2.03 ERA on the road and 4-3 with a tiny 1.64 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Dan Haren (7-6, 3.51 ERA) who is coming off a 3-1 loss to the Padres on Friday, giving up three runs off eight hits over six innings. Like Scherzer, Haren was doomed by the longball, giving up three solo home runs. Note that Haren is just a pedestrian 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA in over his past nine appearances. Given the way he fell last time out, I don’t think we need to question Scherzer’s focus in this one and because of that, this is definitely a price I can live with paying, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports
|
07-27-15 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. San Francisco Giants -154 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are rolling along behind some timely hitting and dominant pitching. And that's bad news for the Brewers, the visitors hand the ball to Kyle Lohse (5-11, 6.29 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off ten hits over five innings in a 7-5 loss to the Tribe on Wednesday, also walking three in the sub-par effort. Lohse continues to struggle in every statistical category across the board and has been particularly inept in this position all season, going just 4-5 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA in all "night" games to date. The home side counters with Chris Heston (10-5, 3.18 ERA) who has won two straight and who is 4-0 with a tiny 2.03 ERA over his last six games, giving up one run over 21 1/3's innings over his last three, most recently holding the Friars to one hit and two walks over 7 1/3's shutout innings of a 9-3 road win on Tuesday. SAN FRANCISCO gets a big nod both on the mound and at the plate and make this a price that we have no problems at all in laying.
AAA Sports
|
07-27-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Tampa Bay Rays -110 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Recent performance is a major factor that we always take into account when looking at starting pitching and in this case we think the home side has the advantage today. The visitors are fresh off a deflating 11-1 loss last night in Boston and Tampa starter Nathan Karns (5-5, 3.47 ERA) will look to take full advantage; note that despite being just 2-2 over his last seven starts, Karns has posted a highly respectable 2.83 ERA in that span. Most recently Karns would go five scoreless in a 1-0 win over the Phillies on Tuesday, striking out four in the process. Excluding a seven-run anomaly two starts ago, Karns has been the very model of consistency, posting a 1.53 ERA over his last six trips to the mound. The Tigers counter with Anibal Sanchez (10-7, 4.59 ERA) who earned a win vs. the Mariners last time out despite giving up four runs off nine hits over 6 2/3's innings. If we dig a little deeper we discover that Sanchez has in fact been struggling with his command for a while now, giving up 20 runs in his last 40 1/3's innings pitched (and note, Sanchez has already struggled in this spot all year, just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all road games and the last time he faced Tampa Bay he was shelled for seven runs while walking four in a 7-2 home defeat back in July 2014, moving him to 2-2 with a ballooned 5.08 ERA in six career meetings vs. it). Both teams come in struggling at the plate, so we'll call that department a "wash." We have to give Karns the nod on the mound though and that's more than enough to tip the scales in our favor, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value;" play on the RAYS.
AAA Sports
|
07-26-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Cleveland Indians -170 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-170 |
22 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SURE THING on the Cleveland Indians.
The White Sox clobbered the Tribe yesterday and suffice it to say, with what is clearly the superior starter backing them on Sunday, we expect the home side to avenge that setback and to find a way to get the job done in the finale of this series. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and recent performance is a factor that we always look at and in this case, there's no question that Danny Salazar has the advantage in this department. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Rodon (3-3, 4.48 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for seven runs off seven hits over just four innings of work vs. the Cardinals on Tuesday; Rodon would also walk three in the sub-par effort. The home side counters with Salazar (8-5, 3.78 ERA) who produced a quality start in a setback to the Brewers on Tuesday, giving up three runs off two hits over six innings, while also striking out eight; note that Salazar has now posted a quality start in three of his last four outings and has to be feeling pretty confident in this position as he's 4-1 with a respectable 3.53 ERA at home and an even better 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA in all "day" games this year. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying what we feel is in fact a very reasonable price; play on the INDIANS.
AAA Sports
|
07-25-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -148 |
|
7-6 |
Loss |
-148 |
29 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the LA Angels.
For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching and handicapping starting pitching often comes down to "recent performance;" in this case Hector Santiago has a major advantage over his counterpart and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Yovani Gallardo (7-9, 2.91 ERA) who comes into this contest with zero momentum having lost three straight, most recently getting shelled for a season-high five runs in a season-low four innings vs. the Astros on Sunday; note that Gallardo would give up seven hits and three walks, the fourth straight outing in which he's allowed at least three bases on balls. Gallardo has gotten worse as the season has progressed, but his counterpart today has been trending in the other direction, Santiago (7-4, 2.30 ERA) has gotten better as the season has worn on, most recently he'd give up one run off eight hits over five innings while striking out a season-high ten opponents in a victory over the Red Sox on Monday; and note that Santiago has dominated in this spot all year, 3-1 with a tiny 2.22 ERA in front of the home town crowd and 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in all "night" games. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Santiago should in fact be a much larger one, indeed making this selection the very definition of "great line value," play on the ANGELS.
AAA Sports
|
07-25-15 |
Cincinnati Reds -125 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Cincinnati Reds.
We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, great value on the visitors and Johnny Cueto (6-6, 2.79 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up two runs off four hits over four innings of work, ultimately earning a no-decision for his effort. Cueto has been involved with trade discussions with a few teams already and will be hungry for a bounce back effort here, he'll take heart in the fact that he has in fact excelled in this spot by posting a 2.56 ERA in all "night" games this season. The home side counters with Chris Rusin (3-3, 3.88 ERA) who after a decent start to the season has steadily regressed, most recently he was shelled for five runs off seven hits over six innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Tigers on Monday; note that Rusin is now winless in his last four outings. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this matchup, we're going to give Cueto the clear nod and with that important factor on our side, we do indeed have no issues at all in pulling the trigger on this 10* ART OF WAR on the REDS.
AAA Sports
|
07-25-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Chicago Cubs -163 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-163 |
24 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Chicago Cubs.
The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels (5-7, 3.91 ERA), who is the rumors of trade talks with these very Cubs, but who comes into this one after getting shelled for five runs in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Marlins on Saturday, he'd last just three innings and give up eight hits before being pulled from the game. Unfortunately for Hamels, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he's a poor 3-5 with a 4.74 ERA away from friendly confines this year. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (11-5, 2.52 ERA) who is coming off a fifth straight win, this time by going seven scoreless vs. Atlanta on Sunday; note that Arrieta has now given up two runs or fewer in his last six starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today after having already posted a very respectable 3.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. We're giving the firm nod to Arrieta in this matchup and that's going to be more than enough to swing the odds in our favor, lay the price with confidence on the CUBS.
AAA Sports
|
07-24-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -175 v. New York Mets |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 17 m |
Show
|
NO ACTION, Greinke is not pitching anymore.
|
07-24-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -130 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Boston Red Sox.
Both starters have seen better days, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for Rick Porcello and the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Verlander is 0-3 with a ballooned 6.62 ERA since returning from injury, his team has gone 0-6 in his starts as the beleaguered hurler has been shelled for at least six runs in three of those contests. Verlander is coming off one of his worst efforts so far as well, giving up seven runs over 3 2/3's innings of work before being booed off the field in his team's 9-3 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. Porcello (5-10, 5.79 ERA) can empathize, he's been one of the worst in the league in 2015, which is somewhat surprising considering he set career bests with 15 wins, a 3.43 ERA and 204 2/3's innings last year. Porcello fell to 1-8 with a 7.20 ERA in last ten outings in a 3-0 loss to the Angels on Saturday, it was in fact a big step in the right direction though and he'll look to build off that performance and take advantage of the fact that his ex-teammate is 3-4 with a pedestrian 3.64 ERA in 11 regular-season outings vs. the Red Sox. And unfortunately for Verlander his bullpen is one of the worst in the league, it once again broke down in Thursday's 3-2, 12-inning home defeat to Seattle; not surprisingly, the Tigers have dropped seven of ten. This time Boston can empathize with Detroit, its enduring its longest losing streak since August last year, including yesterday's 5-4 setback in Houston. Slugger Miguel Cabrera remains out of the line-up for the visitors, so we're going to give the slight nod to the Red Sox line-up; we'll also give the slight nod to Porcello on the mound and with those two crucial factors working in our favor, all signs do indeed point to BOSTON as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
07-23-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -190 v. New York Mets |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* MAJOR MOUND MISMATCH on the LA Dodgers.
When the situation calls for it, there's nothing more that we like doing than unloading on chalk when we're positive that the favorite has insurmountable edges on its side, and that's definitely the case here as we expect the red hot Clayton Kershaw and the hard-hitting Dodgers to kick off this series with a victory. Kershaw (7-6, 2.68 ERA) came out of the All Star break to post his best effort of the season, scattering three hits over eight scoreless innings in a victory over the Nationals on Saturday; note that the southpaw would also strike out 14 batters, the second most K's of his career. After the mediocre first half, Kershaw has quietly been dominating opponents, and that's bad news for Mets' starter Bartolo Colon (9-8, 4.86 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over just 4 1/3's innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Saturday. Colon has been hit or miss all year, but has been steadily declining as the season has progressed, also note that he's just 3-8 with a ballooned 5.30 ERA in all "night" games this year. Recent performance plays a part in our handicapping process when it comes to baseball and there's no doubt that Kershaw seems like a man possessed right now, the talent discrepancy in this matchup absolutely justifies in laying the larger price in our professional opinion, play on the DODGERS.
AAA Sports
|
07-22-15 |
St. Louis Cardinals -128 v. Chicago White Sox |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (7-5, 2.79 ERA) who is coming off a strong outing vs. the Mets on Friday, giving up one run off three hits over seven frames while striking out nine in the victory. For the most part, Lynn has been as solid as the Cardinals could possibly ask for, note that he's 6-3 with a highly respectable 2.64 ERA in all "night" games this season. The home side counters with John Danks (5-8, 4.98 ERA) who is coming off a second straight victory in a win over the Royals on Friday, pitching six shutout innings, giving up four hits and four walks. Note though that Danks has struggled in this spot all year, just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.39 ERA at home and only 3-5 with a ballooned 5.57 ERA in all "night" games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and this is a matchup which we feel clearly favors Lynn. With Danks having already proven to be a liability in this spot, we have no problems all in laying this very reasonable price. Play on the CARDINALS.
AAA Sports
|
07-21-15 |
Cleveland Indians -118 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-118 |
29 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Indians.
The Brewers have won four-straight at home, part of a 13-4 span, a run brought on by some timely hitting. The Indians come to town struggling at the plate, but dominating on the hill, after Sunday's 5-3, 11-inning win in Cincinnati, the starting staff has posted a tiny 2.67 ERA over its past 17 games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case I feel that Danny Salazar has the clear advantage. Salazar (8-4, 3.74 ERA) is coming off his second-longest start of his career, giving up an unearned run off five hits with eight K's over 8 2/3's innings of a 5-1 home win over the A's on July 10th. The home side counters with confirmed "gas can" Matt Garza (4-10, 5.55 ERA) who is making his first start since being put on the DL with shoulder tendinitis after giving up four earned runs in four straight outings, most recently giving up four runs off ten hits over six innings of an 8-7 win in Philadelphia on July 2nd, falling to a miserable 0-3 with a ballooned 7.88 ERA in that span. Garza is going to be in for a long day, the Tribe have in fact already started to turn things around at the plate as well, posting 14 runs off 24 hits over the last two games. This is indeed the very definition of "great line value" in our opinion, play on the INDIANS.
AAA Sports
|
07-20-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -146 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* NON-DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Angels.
This is a clear pitching mismatch, one so big that we have no problems at all in laying what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price, suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Wright (3-2, 4.15 ERA), who has made 11 appearances and four starts for the team this year, posting a pedestrian 4.15 ERA over 43 1/3's innings of work. Note that Wright last threw on June 4th, when he gave up three earned runs in a loss to the Twins. The home side counters with Andrew Heaney (3-0, 1.32 ERA) who blanked the Mariners in 10-3 victory on Sunday, giving up no runs off five hits over seven innings, striking out six and walking one. "Recent performance" is an important factor which we always take into account when handicapping starting pitching and in this case, there's no question who has the clear advantage in this department. This is a tough spot and opponent for Wright to go up against, we expect the right-hander to struggle in the hostile environment, lay the price with confidence on the ANGELS.
AAA Sports
|
07-19-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Washington Nationals -107 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-107 |
21 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Nationals.
A couple of the league's best go head-to-head in this one, but we can't understate how important we feel that the "home field" advantage is in this one, it'll turn out to be the difference and makes this a price that we have no problem at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39 ERA) who blanked the Phillies for eight innings in his final start before the break; Greinke would then go on to receive a no-decision after starting in the All-Star game, giving up a single hit. Greinke has been superb in every aspect so far this season, but we think he will finally run out of gas here throwing opposite a well-rested Max Scherzer (10-7, 2.11 ERA) who sat out the All-Star game because of scheduling reasons, but who closed the first half with a dominant performance, falling one out short of a complete game in a 3-2 win over the Orioles on Sunday; note that Scherzer has been particularly effective in this spot all year, going 4-2 with a 1.66 ERA in all "day" games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we could have easily written an argument for either starter here, but as mentioned off the top, home field advantage can't be taken for granted in our opinion and will indeed turn out to the difference at the end of the afternoon, play on the NATIONALS.
AAA Sports
|
07-18-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's -151 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Oakland Athletics.
The visitors hand the ball to Phil Hughes (8-6, 4.32 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits in a no-decision vs. the Orioles on Monday. Hughes has been as solid as you could possibly ask for this season, but note that this is a spot in which he's struggled in all year, going just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.83 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Scott Kazmir (5-5, 2.49 ERA) who hasn't thrown since July 8th because of triceps tightness, but the 11 year veteran has been cleared to go in the second half and comes in having given up just six earned runs over his last 38 1/3's innings of work. And note, Kazmir has been almost unbeatable at home, going 4-2 with a tiny 1.40 ERA thus far. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Kazmir gets the nod with the home field advantage, lay the price with confidence on the ATHLETICS.
AAA Sports
|
07-18-15 |
Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -150 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-150 |
24 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Yankees.
The visitors hand the ball Hisashi Iwakuma (1-1, 5.22 ERA) who is coming off his best outing so far since returning from the DL, blanking the Angels over eight innings in his team's eventual 5-0 victory last Saturday. It was just his second start of the season and clearly Iwakuma benefited from throwing in front of the home town crowd, throwing in New York is an entirely different thing though, note that he's posted a 7.20 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Michael Pineda (9-5, 3.64 ERA) who is also coming off a dominating performance, giving up one run off six scattered hits over 6 2/3's innings over Boston on Friday. Pineda has now given up just one run over his last two starts spanning 13 2/3's innings of work, while allowing just three earned runs over his last 21 2/3's innings played. Pineda and the Yankees have to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as well as he's 4-2 with a respectable 3.21 ERA in front of the home town crowed this season. I'm giving Pineda the nod on the bump and that's more than enough to tip the scales in our favor, lay the price with confidence on the YANKEES.
AAA Sports
|
07-17-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres -138 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Padres.
The visitors hand the ball to Jorge De La Rosa (6-3, 4.34 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks over six innings in a 3-2 no-decision to the Braves on Saturday. De La Rosa has looked a lot better of late, but if he's had one clear weakness it's been his play in all "night games," where he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA. The home side counters with ace James Shields (7-3, 4.01 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs off five hits over 5 1/3's innings in a setback vs. the Rangers on Saturday. It was a crummy way to end the first half, especially considering that the big right-hander had given up two earned runs over his previous two starts combined, but regardless, obviously there's nothing to worry about and Shields does in fact have to be feeling pretty confident here as he's 3-1 with a tiny 2.77 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season and 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA in all "night" games. We're giving Shields the big nod on the mound in this match-up and in our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the PADRES.
AAA Sports
|
07-17-15 |
New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -134 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The visitors send Noah Syndergaard (4-4, 3.11 ERA) to the hill, he'd most recently set a career-high with 13 K's while allowing one run off four hits and two walks over eight innings in a 4-2 win over the Diamondbacks on Friday. Syndergaard has been fantastic of late, but this is a position that the rookie has struggled in this year and I think he will again in this matchup, as he's 0-3 with a ballooned 5.33 ERA on the road this season and just 2-4 with a 3.71 ERA in all "night" games. The home side counters with Lance Lynn (6-5, 2.90 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for five runs off nine hits over four innings, walking one and striking out five in a 5-2 loss to the Pirates on Friday. No need to hit the panic button if you're a Lynn fan though obviously, those types of duds happen to every pitcher over the course of a season, Lynn and the Cardinals have to be feeling pretty confident he'll bounce back like a champ here as he's 4-1 with a tiny 1.90 ERA at home thus far and 5-3 with a 2.76 ERA in all "night" games. I'm going to give Lynn the slight nod on the bump, the Cards the big nod at the plate and that's more than enough to tip the scales in our favor, in our opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." Play on the CARDINALS.
AAA Sports
|
07-12-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Chicago Cubs -165 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Chicago Cubs.
The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series (we were on Sale yesterday), but I like the home side to finally bounce back in the finale of this interleague match-up. Jake Arrieta (9-5, 2.80 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs and he comes into this contest red hot, he's 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP over his last four starts, most recently surrendering two runs over 6 2/3's innings in a 7-4 victory over the Cards on Tuesday. The visitors counter with Jose Quintana (4-8, 3.69 ERA) who is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA over his last six starts and has gone eight straight starts pitching at least six innings, while allowing three runs or fewer. This obviously won't be a cake walk, but I'm giving the slight nod to Arrieta in this match-up, who has the clear advantage of throwing at home (note that Quintana is 3-4 with a 4.05 ERA on the road, while Arrieta has posted a 3.27 ERA at home and a 2.66 ERA in all "day" games). And I'll give the home side the big nod in the motivation department as it looks to stave off the sweep, play on the CUBS.
AAA Sports
|
07-11-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets -150 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets.
The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.60 ERA) who looked brilliant in his return from Tommy John surgery, giving up two runs off eight hits over five innings with no walks and three K's vs. the Rockies on Saturday. Corbin will be fresh here after throwing just 75 pitches and he'll need to be sharp opposite Matt Harvey (7-6, 3.11 ERA) who is coming off a mediocre effort in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday, giving up three runs off seven hits, while walking five over five innings. Harvey has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back today though as he's 4-2 with a very respectable 3.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this season. Corbin looked great in his first start back, but dominating the inconsistent Rockies is one thing, dominating the surging Mets in New York is quite another I think. All eyes are on Harvey here, with one last chance to impress before the break, I look for the Mets' ace to be at his best and have no problem at all in laying this price; play on NEW YORK.
AAA Sports
|
07-11-15 |
Chicago White Sox +100 v. Chicago Cubs |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox won the battle of Chicago in yesterday's 1-0 series opener and runs are likely going to be at a premium once again today, but I think Chris Sale and the visitors will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Sale (7-4, 2.80 ERA) went the distance in a 4-2 win over the Jays on Monday, giving up two runs off six hits over nine innings of work while also striking out six and walking no one. Sale has now given up a total of three runs over his last two starts and is 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Jon Lester (4-7, 3.48 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss to the Cardinals on Monday. Lester has improved as the season has worn on, but note that he owns a pedestrian 3-5, 3.26 ERA home record. And note that Sale has dominated in interleague action throughout his career, going 4-0 with a tiny 1.97 ERA in nine starts vs. the NL. With both teams struggling at the plate, the hitting department becomes a "wash," so that means this one comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Sale gets the slight nod in this match-up in our professional opinion. Play on the WHITE SOX.
AAA Sports
|
07-10-15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets -130 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New York Mets.
I think we're getting excellent value on this one, for a number of different reasons I look for Noah Syndergaard and company to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Diamondbacks have been rolling, having won five of their last six and three straight away from friendly confines, but as primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I keep my eyes open for, there's no question that this does in fact set up as a classic letdown spot for Arizona as it embarks on its final series before the break. Conversely, the Mets come into this game with momentum and will be super eager to finish the first half on a high note after finally getting over an extended stretch of futility. Also note that the Diamondbacks have consistently struggled in New York, losing eight of the last 13 since 2011, while being limited to a meagre .217 average in the process. New York is 29-14 at home this year and turns to Syndergaard (3-4, 3.38 ERA) who is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and .174 opponent batting average over his last four starts and who is a near perfect 3-1 with a 1.89 ERA in five starts in The Big Apple. The visitors counter with Chase Anderson (4-2, 3.71 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in Friday's 4-3 home win over Colorado; Anderson is trending in the opposite direction of Syndergaard, he's 1-1 with deplorable 7.64 ERA over his last three starts. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of great line value, play on the METS.
AAA Sports
|
07-09-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -117 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Seattle Mariners.
Felix Hernandez was the most dominant pitcher through the first two months of 2015, but then inexplicably went through one of the worst three-game patches of his career. Bettors are still ultra-cautious about "The King" right now as evidenced by what I feel to be a ridiculously favorable line, but in my professional opinion, the value has now clearly swung back onto Hernandez's side, there's no question in my mind that this represents the very definition of "great line value." The Angels send Garret Richards (9-5, 3.35 ERA) to the hill, who gave up one run off six hits over 7 2/3's innings in an 8-2 win over the Rangers on Friday. Richards has been solid this year, but if there's been one clear weakness in his game this season it's been his play on the road where he's just 4-4 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA thus far. Hernandez (10-5, 3.02 ERA) would give up a season-high ten hits over seven innings in a 2-0 loss to the A's on Saturday, walking two and striking out six in the process; Hernandez though has now giving up a total of two runs over 13 innings spanning his last two starts, but unfortunately has nothing to show for it. The M's have to be feeling pretty confident in this spot though, Hernandez comes into this contest with a great 6-3, 2.89 ERA home record. The value is simply too great to turn down, play on the MARINERS.
AAA Sports
|
07-09-15 |
Oakland A's v. New York Yankees -125 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees.
I think the value is just too good to turn down here. The visitors hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (4-8, 3.20 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off nine hits over 6 1/3's innings vs. the Mariners on Friday. Chavez continues to struggle since returning from the DL and unfortunately a "day" game is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he's just 1-5 with a 3.89 ERA in all such instances this year. The home side counters with Mashario Tanaka (4-3, 3.94 ERA) who gave up three runs in a no-decision vs. the Rays on Friday, ultimately going six innings and striking out five. Tanaka has looked a bit shaky in his last two starts, but I don't think there's anything to get panicked about if you're a fan of his, it's not like the 26 year old has suddenly forgotten how to play the game. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I am giving the nod to Tanaka in this matchup and that's going to be more than enough to tip the scales in our favor; play on the YANKEES.
AAA Sports
|
07-08-15 |
Philadelphia Phillies +322 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
29 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* UNDERDOG FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies upset the Dodgers 7-2 last night and I think can build off that victory here, with confidence on their side, the value is simply too great to turn down as I look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Phillies hand the ball to Adam Morgan (1-1, 2.13 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss at Atlanta on Friday. Morgan is backed by a lineup which is batting .296 while averaging 5.1 runs over its last seven. And I think that's bad news for clearly struggling Clayton Kershaw (5-6, 3.08 ERA) who is 0-3 since his last win despite a 2.41 ERA; Kershaw has obviously been the victim of poor run support and if last night's outcome was any indicator, then all signs point to another difficult outing for the home side's scuffling ace. A perfect storm of factors combined with an unbelievable line make this a selection which we can't turn down, play on the PHILLIES.
AAA Sports
|
07-08-15 |
Houston Astros v. Cleveland Indians -140 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Indians.
I think we're getting awesome value on the better pitcher, who also has the advantage of throwing at home today, when the smoke does clear at the end of this one, I look for the INDIANS to find a way to get the job done. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (0-0, 7.71 ERA) who was called up from Triple-A to make a spot start against Boston on Friday and who was then promptly shelled for five runs over 4 2/3's innings of work. And it doesn't get any easier for the right-hander throwing opposite Trevor Bauer (7-5, 3.88 ERA) who went 6 1/3's innings and gave up two runs off three hits, while striking out three in a 5-2 win over the Pirates on Friday. Bauer had struggled in two starts previous, but has a big opportunity here to string a couple of decent efforts together and to take advantage of his favorable matchup. Lay what I feel to be a very reasonable price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
07-07-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners -155 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Seattle Mariners.
Don't let the ERA's of these starting pitchers fool you, the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight is a massive one and will prove to be the difference in the outcome of tonight's contest. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Ryan (1-2, 4.55 ERA) who went four innings in an 8-4 loss to the Pirates on Thursday, giving up two runs off three hits and has posted a 5.02 ERA on the road. This is another tough spot start for the big south-paw and one which I believe the surging Taijuan Walker (7-6, 4.34 ERA) will take full advantage of; Walker most recently struck out seven and gave up no runs in a victory against the Padres on Wednesday. Walker has to be feeling pretty confident in being able to continue the momentum as he's posted a very respectable 2.79 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. Lay the price with confidence, fantastic line value on the MARINERS.
AAA Sports
|
07-07-15 |
Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -140 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-140 |
30 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Milwaukee Brewers.
I think Matt Garza finally gets off the schneid and notches an elusive victory in what is a very favorable matchup for the veteran. The visitors hand the ball to Manny Banuelos (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who left his first career start with cramping and dehydration on Thursday; Banuelos looked good, so it was an unfortunate no-decision for the southpaw. Obviously the book is still out on Banuelos and I think he'll have his hands full on the road in this hostile environment and throwing opposite a highly motivated Garza (4-10, 5.55 ERA) who gave up four runs off ten hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Phillies on Thursday. I'm giving Garza the nod in this particular match-up, also the BREWERS the big nod at the plate and with those two factors clearly working in our favor, in my opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value."
NOTE: This play is now NO ACTION. Garza is out. Once again, this play is NO ACTION.
AAA Sports
|
07-06-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox -155 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Chicago White Sox.
The visitors hand the ball to Mark Buehrle (9-4, 3.64 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in his team's 11-2 victory over the Red Sox on Wednesday. Buehrle has been awfully good of late, but if there's been one knock on him this year, it's clearly been his play on the road where he's posted a pedestrian 4.25 ERA. The home side counters with Chris Sale (6-4, 2.87 ERA) who struck out 12 in Tuesday's 2-1 win over the Cardinals, giving up one run over eight innings of work. Sale has struck out at least ten batters in his last eight starts, but he's winless in his last four outings. Suffice it to say, Sale will clearly be motivated here to return to the winners circle, note that he owns a 2.89 ERA in all night games this year and a dominant 2-1 record with a tiny 2.32 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. This is a clear pitching mismatch, Sale will be the more motivated here after coming up short in each of his last eight outings, in my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." Lay the price with confidence on the WHITE SOX.
AAA Sports
|
07-05-15 |
San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals -164 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The visitors send Ian Kennedy (4-7, 4.86 ERA) to the hill, the nine year vet most recently gave up four runs off four hits over five innings of work and is just 2-3 on the road this season. The home side counters with Lance Lynn (5-4, 2.74 ERA) who received a no-decision in his team's 2-1 setback to the White Sox on Tuesday; Lynn would give up just one run off six hits over six innings of work, while also striking out six in the process. The 5-year veteran has now produced a quality start in four of his last five outings and is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA in front of the home town crowd. This is another extremely favorable matchup for surging ST. LOUIS, look for the home side to make the most of it and to close out this series with a victory.
AAA Sports
|
07-05-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Chicago White Sox -108 |
|
9-1 |
Loss |
-108 |
21 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox are surging and I look for that momentum to get carried over here as they seek their fifth straight win and a series sweep of the visiting Orioles. The home side hands the ball to Carlos Rondon (3-1, 4.07 ERA) who is 1-1 in his last three starts and he'll be looking to take advantage of a Baltimore team which has batted .195 and struck out 50 times while losing five of its last six. And it won't get any easier in sending Miguel Gonzalez (6-5, 4.04 ERA) to the hill who was cruising with a 1.89 ERA over a three start stretch before getting injured and who has then posted a 9.65 ERA since returning, most recently getting shelled for six runs over 4 1/3's innings in an 8-6 loss to the Rangers on Tuesday. Rondon get the slight nod on the mound and the WHITE SOX get the big nod in the momentum department, in my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value."
AAA Sports
|
07-05-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -106 v. Detroit Tigers |
|
10-5 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 36 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.
After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for a motivated visiting side to make the most of this favorable pitching mismatch and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The Jays hand the ball to Marco Estrada (5-4, 3.58 ERA), who saw his four-game win streak snapped after giving up four runs over 2 1/3's innings in a setback to the Red Sox on Tuesday; suffice it to say, it was his shortest outing so far this season. So is it time to hit the panic button if your the Jays? Obviously not, Estrada is a veteran and those types of starts happen to every pitcher over the course of a long season, he has to be feeling pretty good about a bounce back here as he's a solid 3-1 with a 3.34 ERA on the road this year and 1-0 with a 3.33 ERA in all "day" games. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (0-1, 5.09 ERA) who walked five batters over six innings in a no-decision vs. Pittsburgh on Tuesday; the veteran would give up three runs off five hits. I give Estrada the nod in this match-up, I give the JAYS the big nod in the motivation department and with those two factors working in our favor, there's no question that this is the very definition of "great line value."
AAA Sports
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07-04-15 |
San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals -182 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 19 m |
Show
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This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals.
Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, I definitely think that home side should be a bigger one in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed "gas can" Odrisamer Despaigne (3-6, 4.94 ERA) who gave up five runs in a 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Despaigne has struggled in this spot all year long and owns a horrible 1-3, 5.66 ERA on the road. His counterpart Carlos Martinez has been fantastic over the first half and most recently allowed one run off two hits over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Sunday. And note that this is a position in which Martinez has excelled in all year, 4-1 with a 2.88 home ERA and a lights-out 3-0 with a tiny 1.39 ERA in all "day" games. I think the writing is on the wall and a lop-sided blowout is in the cards, lay the price with confidence on the CARDINALS.
AAA Sports
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07-04-15 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Chicago White Sox -110 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 14 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Chicago White Sox.
Chris Tillman (6-7, 5.67 ERA) is coming off his best outing of the year, but has struggled mightily in this position all season, sporting a 5.65 road ERA and a deplorable 7.99 ERA in all "day" games. His counterpart Jeff Samardzija has been getting better as the season has progressed and I think can take full advantage of this matchup, note that Samardzija is a fantastic 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I do definitely feel that we're getting great value on the home side WHITE SOX in this one.
AAA Sports
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07-04-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Detroit Tigers -125 |
|
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 9 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers.
The visitors hand the ball to RA Dickey (3-8, 4.85 ERA) who is coming off his third loss in his last four outings to Boston on Monday, giving up three runs over six innings. Unfortunately for the veteran, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as the knuckleballer is 0-5 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with David Price (7-2, 2.62 ERA) who is coming off a no-decision in his last start, but who finished June undefeated and who is 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA at home and an even better 1-0 with a tiny 2.16 ERA in all "day" games this season. I like the TIGERS to take advantage of this match-up and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value."
AAA Sports
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07-03-15 |
Houston Astros v. Boston Red Sox -131 |
Top |
12-8 |
Loss |
-131 |
26 h 1 m |
Show
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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox.
The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has been called up from Triple-A to make this start; Straily last pitched in the major leagues in 2014 and was a poor 6-6 with a pedestrian 4.06 ERA in 77 2/3's innings in Fresno this season. The home side counters with Justin Masterson (3-2, 5.58 ERA) who dominated the Rays on Sunday, going five innings and giving up five hits while striking out six. Masterson is replacing Joe Kelly in the rotation and I think this matchup is definitely working in his favor, there's no question that this is a tough spot to throw Straily into, in my opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value;" lay the price with confidence on the RED SOX.
AAA Sports
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07-03-15 |
San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -148 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
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This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Washington Nationals.
The Giants hand the ball to Jake Peavy (0-2, 9.39 ERA) who makes his first start since injuring his back in mid April. Note that the veteran posted the deplorable 9.39 ERA in two starts before the setback. The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (5-4, 4.41 ERA) who has struggled over the first half of the season, but who has looked a lot better of late, he does in fact come into this one off his best outing of the year, going seven shutout innings with two walks and four K's in a lop-sided victory over Baltimore. Gonzalez and the Nats have to be feeling pretty confident that he can continue the momentum into the break as well as he's 3-1 with a highly respectable 2.65 ERA in front of the home town crowd already this season. This is a big talent discrepancy and in my opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the NATIONALS.
AAA Sports
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07-02-15 |
Cleveland Indians -123 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 22 m |
Show
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This is a 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Cleveland Indians.
I think we're getting great value on Corey Kluber and the Tribe in this match-up, in my professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." Kluber (3-9, 3.66 ERA) has for the most part struggled this year, but has still looked brilliant at times; that was certainly the case in his last start vs. the Orioles on Friday when he went seven innings, striking out ten in the process but unfortunately taking a no-decision. After winning the Cy Young award last year, amazingly Kluber would finish without a victory in June. I think this is a perfect opponent to get back on track against though, the home side counters with Matt Moore (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who makes his first start in 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery: "It almost seems as if the last 14 months were kind of foggy when I was thinking of certain moments," Moore said on Tuesday. "To be back here, finally, knowing I don't have another plane ride and no more rehab starts, it feels good." Obviously Moore will be amped to perform well today, but this is a statement of relief, Moore's just happy to finally be back in the show. And suffice it to say, Kluber is not happy at all where he's at at this point of the season, but with a chance to close the first half with momentum, I think he'll do just that today; lay the short price with confidence on the INDIANS.
AAA Sports
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07-01-15 |
Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays -135 |
|
2-11 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 33 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.
These two veterans have steadily been moving in opposite directions over the last two months, in my professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." The visitors send the volatile Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.54 ERA) to the hill, most recently he'd give up three runs off nine hits over six innings, earning a no-decision for his effort vs. the Rays on Friday. Prior to that Porcello had given up 30 runs over his last six starts spanning 36 innings of work; note that Porcello is 1-4 with a ballooned 6.13 ERA on the road and a horrible 1-2 with a deplorable 7.65 ERA in all "day" games. The home side counters with Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.81 ERA) who has gotten stronger as the season has progressed, most recently he'd win his third straight start by allowing two runs off five hits over seven innings while striking out five vs. the hard-hitting Rangers on Friday. Note that Buehrle sports a sparkling 1.75 ERA over his last five trips to the bump and is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA in all home games to date. I think the writing is on the wall and a lop-sided mismatch is in the cards, lay what I deem to be a very reasonable price on Buehrle and the BLUE JAYS.
AAA Sports
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07-01-15 |
Minnesota Twins v. Cincinnati Reds -176 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 43 m |
Show
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This is a 6* play on the Cincinnati Reds.
The visitors send Trevor May (4-6, 4.62 ERA) to the hill, the 25 year old was shelled for six runs off five hits over 1/3 of an inning vs. the Brewers on Friday. Unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as May is already a poor 2-3 with a ballooned 6.41 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (4-5, 2.98 ERA) who is coming off a gem in which he gave up two runs on two hits while striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday; note that Cueto has been particularly sharp in this position all year, posting a highly respectable 2.98 ERA in all "day" games and a 2-1, 1.74 ERA in front of the home town crowd. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, I absolutely feel that Cueto and the REDS should be much larger ones, great line value when taking into account the large talent discrepancy on the mound.
AAA Sports
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06-29-15 |
Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays -128 |
|
7-1 |
Loss |
-128 |
31 h 56 m |
Show
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This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Cleveland rookie Cody Anderson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) pitched 7 2/3's scoreless innings at home vs. the Rays on Sunday and looked pretty good in doing it, but I think he'll have his hands full on the road in this hostile environment and throwing opposite Nathan Karns (4-3, 3.28 ERA) who did not allow a run over six innings of work in a 1-0 no-decision to the Tribe on Wednesday; Karns was brilliant as well in allowing only three hits while striking out five. Karns has now given up just two total runs over his last 17 1/3's innings of work spanning three starts and has earned a quality start in two of his last three trips to the hill. The book is still clearly out on Anderson, while Karns now has a proven track record of stability, in my professional opinion this is the very definition of "great line value," play on the RAYS.
AAA Sports
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06-28-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -187 v. Miami Marlins |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
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This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers.
The visitors send Zack Greinke (5-2, 1.70 ERA) to the hill; Greinke will be especially motivated to return to the winners circle here, he's coming off a tough loss in which he gave up one run over six innings, scattering three hits while striking out five. Unbelievably, Greinke is now winless in his last nine starts; the hard-throwing veteran has to be liking his chances for a bounce back today though as he's a spectacular 3-1 with a tiny 1.51 ERA in all road contests this season. The home side counters with Jose Urena (1-3, 4.34 ERA) who is 1-2 with a 3.03 ERA in five June starts, with 12 K's and 12 walk-in his last 29 2/3's innings of work. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching and in this case, Greinke should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup in my opinion, lay the price with confidence on the DODGERS.
AAA Sports
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06-28-15 |
Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays -174 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 48 m |
Show
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This is a 6* play on the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Rangers send rookie Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-2, 2.27 ERA) to the hill, who after a fantastic start to his career, has come back down to Earth, most recently coming off his worst outing after getting shelled for six earned runs in Tuesday's 8-6 loss to the A's. The home side counters with Drew Hutchinson (7-1, 5.33 ERA) who gave up three runs in Monday's 8-5 win, going five innings and striking out six in the process; note that Hutchinson is a near-perfect 5-1 with a tiny 2.38 ERA at home. After getting shutout in yesterday's contest, expect Hutchinson to make the most of this matchup and for the BLUE JAYS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports
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06-28-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -162 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Detroit Tigers.
Jeff Samardzija (5-4, 4.53 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; I've played on Samardzija in his last two starts, but think he'll come up short in Detroit today; note that he most recently struck out seven in a 6-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday and while he's certainly looked a lot better of late, note that he's just 3-4 with a 3.31 ERA in all "night" games this season. The home side counters with David Price (7-2, 2.42 ERA) who is coming off a third straight victory, giving up one run on nine hits over 6 2/3's innings vs. the Tribe on Tuesday, walking no one and striking out seven; note that he's given up just four runs over his last four starts spanning 29 2/3's innings of work. I look for Samardzija's inconsistencies to once again raise their ugly head and for Price and the TIGERS to take full advantage, lay the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
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