Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-16 | Angels v. Rangers -167 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Texas Rangers. Setting the scene: The Rangers come in off a 3-2 win last night and we think the home side carries that momentum over into another favorable matchup. Daniel Wright: He’s 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA. In his second start as an Angel on Thursday Wright gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over five frames in the setback. Wright wasn’t any better in the minors, posting an ERA north of 6.00. AJ Griffin: He’s 7-4 with a 4.78 ERA. Griffin hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been decent in all night games, going 7-2 with a 4.22 ERA and is 5-2 with a 4.18 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Griffin hasn’t pitched since the 13th, so will be rested and focused for this series clinching start. Wright has been an absolute disaster and has been particularly poor on the road. This is a price that we have no issues at all in laying. Play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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09-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -144 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Miami Marlins. Setting the scene: The Nats have lost three straight, but have a comfortable eight-game lead on the Mets for the division. The Marlins will essentially have to “win out” to make it into the playoffs and the home side has to be feeling pretty confident in sending its ace to the hill this evening. Tanner Roark: He’s 15-8 with a 2.75 ERA. He’s been extremely consistent for the Nationals this year and is 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road thus far. Jose Fernandez: He’s 15-8 with a 2.99 ERA. Fernadez remains one of the best in the league and has been particularly dominant at home this year, going 11-2 with a tiny 1.77 ERA. The bottom line: Desperation breeds motivation. Fernandez gets the nod in this matchup despite how well Roark has looked. Washington is struggling with consistency at the plate and facing the red hot Fernandez is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Lay the price with confience on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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09-19-16 | Angels v. Rangers -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Texas Rangers. Setting the scene: As the Rangers try and lock down their playoff spot, they’ll look to take advantage of this very favorable matchup. All signs point to a wire-to-wire rout, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Jhoulys Chacin: He’s 5-8 with a 5.43 ERA. For the most part he’s struggled all year and note that he’s been very bad on the road, going 2-6 with a 6.65 ERA. Martin Perez: He’s 10-10 with a 4.20 ERA. Is there any bigger “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the league this year? Note that Perez is just 2-8 with a 5.78 ERA on the road, compared to 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: LA comes to town off two straight victories over the Blue Jays. Suffice it to say, we think the visitors have a letdown tonight. Lay the price with confidence on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-19-16 | Red Sox -125 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Boston Red Sox. Setting the scene: It’s the start of a huge series, one which will help decide the AL East crown. While Dylan Bundy has been solid this year, Rick Porcello has been a revelation for the league’s most potent offense. When the dust settles at the end of the night, we’re expecting the hard-hitting Red Sox to have found a way to get the job done. Rick Porcello: He’s 20-4 with a 3.12 ERA. The Red Sox are surging to the finish line and have a three-game lead in the division. Porcello has played a big part in his team’s resurgence this year, now leading the AL in victories. Dylan Bundy: He’s 9-5 with a 3.88 ERA. Bundy most recently beat the Red Sox last week, giving up three runs off six hits over 5 1/3’s innings of work. The bottom line: For us it’s a matter of which of these starters do we “trust” more. Porcello looks to close out the best campaign of his career and with MLB’s highest-scoring offense backing him, all signs do indeed point to another victory for the hard-throwing right hander. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | Rays v. Orioles -147 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Orioles. Setting the scene: After dropping the opener to Tampa, the O’s bounced back with a 5-4 win yesterday. We think the playoff hopeful home side keeps the momentum rolling in another favorable matchup. Matt Andriese: He’s 7-7 with a 4.46 ERA. He comes in off his first win since June, holding the Yanks to one run over five innings in the victory. We’ll caution in reading too much into one decent effort though, previous to that he’d dropped five of his last six decisions. Note the he owns a pedestrian 4.64 ERA on the road this year. Chris Tillman: He’s 16-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He comes in off a win against Detroit on Sunday, allowing one run and a walk over six innings, while also striking out four. It was Tillman’s first start back since being on the DL and he’ll now look to finish the season strong and improve upon his 8-2, 4.34 ERA home record and 9-5, 3.95 ERA in all night games. The bottom line: After taking two of three from the Jays in Toronto last week and the first game of this three game set with the Orioles, the Rays finally had a letdown last night. We think the hungry home side takes advantage against a disintersted Tampa team and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on BALTIMORE. AAA Sports |
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09-16-16 | Twins v. Mets -197 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: Minnesota comes off a 5-1 win at Detroit yesterday afternoon, but we think the team stumbles in the opener of this interleague contest. Jose Berrios: He’s 2-6 with a 9.27 ERA. Berrios remains in the rotation out of necessity. Most recently he gave up five runs over two innings with four walks in a setback to the Indians on Sunday. Berrios has now allowed four or more runs in each of his last five starts and note that he’s 0-5 with a 9.89 ERA at home. The bottom line: New York holds its playoff destiny in its own hands following the Cardinals loss in San Francisco last night. It’s a race to the finish and we’re expecting the home side to answer the call tonight. Lay the price with confidence on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-16-16 | Marlins -113 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Miami Marlins. Setting the scene: The Marlins are 4.5 games back in the wild card race and will need to start stringing some wins together if they have any chance at making a serious challenge down the stretch. Adam Morgan has thrown better of late for the home side, but we think Tom Koehler, who has had plenty of success against the Phillies in his career, has a bigger advantage than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Koehler: He’s 9-11 with a 3.97 ERA. Koehler gave up four earned runs over five innings in a setback to the Dodgers in his most recent start, but duds like that have been few and far between for him this year. And note that he’s been at his best whenever facing the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 2.19 ERA in four matchups this season, while going at least seven frames in three of those. Morgan: He’s 2-10 with a 5.73 ERA. Morgan has given up just five runs over his last 18 innings of work, but note that he’s 0-6 with a 5.62 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. The bottom line: We think Koehler is the superior pitcher in this matchup and that the Marlins are the deeper and more motivated side. When you add it all up, this is indeed a very fair price, play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays -163 v. Angels | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Enough is enough! Toronto needs to start stringing some wins together and can no longer let any games “slip by” vs. sub-.500 teams. After losing two of three at home to the lowly Rays, we’re expecting the hard-hitting visitors to find a way to get the job done tonight by sending their “ace” to the hill. JA Happ: He’s 18-4 with a 3.33 ERA. Coming off a dud against the Rays, Happ got back on track in his last start giving up two earned runs off four hits and a walk over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Red Sox on Saturday. He also struck out five. The southpaw now has two quality starts out of his last three to the mound and posted wins in 12 of his last 13 decisions. Note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.59 ERA on the road this year. Daniel Wright: He’s 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA. Wright was designated for assigment by Cincinnati earlier in the month, which speaks to the Angels’ desperation in trying to cobble together their starting rotation. He went 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA in four starts for the Reds. The bottom line: Happ has little success against the Angels in the past, but past success or failure does not necessarily mean a similar result in the future. Happ and the hungry BLUE JAYS are the correct call in this matchup, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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09-14-16 | Dodgers -192 v. Yankees | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Dodgers. Setting the scene: Clayton Kershaw is back, making his second start since returning from the DL and he’ll be looking to help his team rebound from yesteday’s 3-0 defeat. Kershaw: He’s 11-3 with a 1.89 ERA. He drew a tough opening assignment in his first start back, throwing opposite Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez in Miami. Kershaw gave up two runs, but felt good afterwards. With that awkward opening outing out of the way though, we’re fully expecting the hard-throwing southpaw to be much better in his second start. Note that he’s been dominant in this spot all year, going 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA on the road and 7-3 with a 2.20 ERA in all “night” games. Michael Pineda: He’s 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Friday. Both runs came off homers, so Pineda is lucky to have escaped with the stat line that he did. Pineda continues to struggle with consistency and has failed to reach the fifth frame in either of his last two starts. Note that he’s 4-4 with a poor 4.65 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: The Yanks are in the thick of the playoff hunt, but with a four game series starting tomorrow in AL East leading Boston, we think the young home side gets caught looking ahead and we expect Kershaw to go on to easily outduel his erratic counterpart. Lay the price with confidence on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-14-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -188 | 8-1 | Loss | -188 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: We had a play on Toronto last night and the Jays were unable to take advantage of a very favorable matchup. We expect the home side to bounce back this afternoon though. Alex Cobb: He’s 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA. In his most recent start he gave up four runs off nine hits over six frames in a no-decision against the Yankees on Thursday. He’s looked “ok” in two starts back after returning from Tommy John surgery, but obviously faces a very stiff test today vs. this determined Jays line-up. Marco Estrada: He’s 8-8 with a 3.68 ERA. The veteran has scuffled of late, most recently giving up four runs over 2.1 innings in what turned out to be a blowout 13-3 loss to the red hot Red Sox on Friday. Estrada has a big opportunity to turn things around today and improve upon his respectable 3.55 ERA at home. The bottom line: Estrada has admittedly struggled of late and he hasn’t had much success against the Rays in the past, but we’re still going to give him the small nod in this matchup. Cobb has yet to truly be tested this year. Toronto is in the thick of the playoff hunt, but has also been struggling with consistency at the plate. There’s no better opponent or moment to get things turned around though! We don’t foresee another upset in the cards today as we’re expecting the home side to come in razor focused. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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09-13-16 | A's v. Royals -174 | 5-4 | Loss | -174 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Kansas City Royals. Setting the scene: A rookie hurler who is coming off an unbelievable debut is about to face a much stiffer test in his second outing, while his counterpart continues to put together the finest campaign of his career. While the sky is the limit for the A’s Jharel Cotton, we feel that Danny Duffy and the defending champs are the savvy call in this one. Cotton: It was an awesome debut for the 24-year old, as he’d allow just one run off two hits over 6.1 innings in a win over the short-handed Angels on Wednesday. He’d also strike out three and walk two. Note though that Cotton got the win without having to face LA sluggers’ Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Yunel Escobar, all given the night off. Clearly the competition level goes up tonight. Duffy: He’s 11-2 with a 3.13 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs (just two earned) off eight hits to go along with zero walks and ten strikeouts over eight frames in a no-decision vs. the Twins on Wednesday. Note that He’s 9-2 with a 3.58 ERA in all night games and 6-0 with a 3.38 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: It’s hard to imagine Cotton having the same kind of success against the Royals’ patient and experienceed line-up. After a couple of duds, Duffy bounced back nicely in his last start and he’s now primed to finish the season on a high note. We wouldn’t be shocked to see this line raise closer to -200 before the first pitch, so get down ASAP. Play on KANSAS CITY. AAA Sports |
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09-13-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Toronto is in a dog fight for a playoff spot and can ill afford to let any game get away from it. This is a massive mismatch on the mound and a contest which we envision the home side winning easily. Drew Smyly: He’s 6-11 with a 5.05 ERA. Most recently he gave up five runs off seven hits while receiving a no-decision against the Orioles on Wednesday. Smyly posted only 11 outs on 88 pitches and has been a complete “gas can” all year by giving up 30 home runs to date, which ranks as the fifth most in the league. Also note that he’s just 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA on the road. Marcus Stroman: He’s 9-7 with a 4.55 ERA. Stroman comes in off a loss despite allowing only two runs off seven hits while striking out eight over five frames against New York on Wednesday. Stroman looked sharp, inducing 15 swing-and-misses. The bottom line: Stroman has been the much more consistent over the last month, his win/loss record is not entirely indicative of how he’s thrown of late as he continues to receive poor support. We think that changes tonight. Lay the price with confidence on Stroman and the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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09-12-16 | Cubs -144 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Cubs. The bottom line: One of these starters has dominated all year and could have an argument made for him that he’s been the best in the entire league, while the other has struggled with consistency since the start. We look for the visitors to take advantage of this favorable pitching matchup. Kyle Hendricks: He’s 14-7 with a 2.07 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings to go along with six strikeouts in a victory over the Brewers. Hendricks’ ERA now sits a 0.99 and he’ll be looking to improve upon his sparkling 2.04 ERA in all night contests. Mike Leake: He’s 9-9 with a 4.61 ERA. He returned from the 15-day DL and gave up three runs off nine hits over four innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday. Note that he’s 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA in all home games and 6-9 with a 5.05 ERA in all night contests. The bottom line: For arguments sake, let’s call these explosive line-ups a “wash.” Clearly Hendricks has the upper-hand on the mound and that’s more than enough for us to pull the trigger on the visitors today. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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09-12-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox -215 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Setting the scene: One of these pitchers has been a disaster all year, while the other has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on. We like the hard-hitting Red Sox to take full advantage of his favorable matchup and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Wade Miley: He’s 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Since coming over to the Orioles, he’s posted a deplorable 7.15 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 34 innings of work. David Price: He’s 15-8 with a 3.87 ERA. He comes in off a sixth-straight win, allowing two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a 7-2 win over the Padres on Wednesday. Note that he’s 11-5 with 3.40 ERA in all night games. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one, the RED SOX are pushing towards the postseason and we like their momentum to get carried over here. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Toronto has been scuffling of late and will be hungry to break of its recent funk after getting crushed 13-3 in the opener of this important AL East divisional showdown yesterday. Jays’ starter JA Happ has for the most part been superb this year and we think he’s going to easily outduel his erratic counterpart this afternoon. Happ: He’s 17-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Happ has slowed down considerably after a blistering start to the year as he owns a 5.91 ERA over his last four outings. We’re not giving up on the southpaw yet though, note that he’s 10-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home and is 9-1 with a 3.07 ERA in all day games. Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s 2-6 with a 4.83 ERA. He comes in off perhaps the best start of his career vs. the soft-hitting A’s on Sunday, giving up no runs off one hit and two walks while striking out five over eight innings in the eventual no-decision. We’re not reading too much into one decent effort though, note that he owns a 4.19 ERA on the road and is 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA in all day games. The bottom line: Toronto’s main issue of late has been the fact that its normally red hot bats have gone cold. The Jays are too deep and talented to stay down for too long though and here is the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Rodriguez is set up for a big letdown after his big performance last time out. Great value on TORONTO this afternoon. AAA Sports |
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09-09-16 | Mariners -152 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Seattle Mariners. Setting the scene: The Mariners won’t be going down without a fight in the hunt for the AL Wild Card and they’ll be looking to build off their 6-3 win at home over the Rangers last night. The A’s are simply playing out the end of a terrible season and we think they’ll go throw in the white flag without too much struggle this evening. Hisashi Iwakuma: He’s 14-11 with a 4.01 ERA. His ERA and WHIP are the highest they’ve ever been since he made the shift from Japan to the Major Leagues. He gave up just three runs over seven innings against the Angels last time out, but note that he’s 10-5 with a 3.86 ERA in all night games. Daniel Mengden: He’s 1-6 with a 6.66 ERA. Most recently he gave up seven runs off eight hits with two walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Note that home field advantage has been anything but for the rookie who is 0-5 with a 7.53 ERA in Oakland. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one, Seattle’s offense is in line for another big night against confirmed “gas can” Mengden as all signs point to Iwakuma bouncing back on the road. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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09-09-16 | Giants -186 v. Diamondbacks | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Francisco Giants. Setting the scene: Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner enters off perhaps his best outing of the season and we think he’ll be able to outlast the Diamondbacks’ Rubby De La Rosa and build off the impressive effort. Bumgarner: He’s 14-8 with a 2.51 ERA. Most recently he gave up two earned runs off five hits over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. Bumgarner would go on to post 14 swinging strikes and notched first-pitch strikes to 19 of the 25 batters he faced. Bumgarner comes in with momentum, notching his second straight quality effort. Note that he owns a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. De La Rosa: He’s 4-5 with a 4.15 ERA. De La Rosa make his first start since late May and will be on a strict pitch count. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.61 ERA in all night games. The bottom line: San Francisco’s playoff hopes are falling away, the team needs to start stringing some victories together or risk falling even farther behind. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. This is a price in which we have no issues at all in laying, play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-16 | Astros v. Indians -142 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Indians. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense. Astros: They send David Paulino (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the hill to make his debut. The 22-year old is obviously being thrown to the wolves in his first start, but it’ll have to be a trial by fire for the right-hander. Paulino was lights-out in Double-A, but wasn’t nearly as impressive once going to Triple-A. Clearly things aren’t going to get any easier for the youngster this afternoon and suffice it to say, we think he’s in way over his head. Indians: They send Trevor Bauer (10-6, 3.70) to the hill, who comes in off a big effort over Miami on Saturday, allowing three runs off four hits with three walks and four strikeouts over 8.1 innings. Bauer has now posted four consecutive quality starts. The bottom line: This is a golden matchup opportunity that Cleveland can ill afford to let go by the way side. As much promise as Paulino may possess, this is simply a tough spot for the rookie. Bauer is the savvy move here and in our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-07-16 | Red Sox -213 v. Padres | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT is on the Boston Red Sox. Setting the scene: Boston pulled away for a 5-1 win yesterday and we expect it to take advantage of another favorable matchup and find a way to notch another victory, before then heading to Toronto for a crucial AL East showdown. David Price: He’s 14-8 with a 3.92 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off four hits while striking out seven in his team’s 16-2 win over the A’s on Friday. He’s now won five straight outings. Note that he’s 6-5 with a 3.67 ERA on the road this season. Jarred Cosart: He’s 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently gave up seven runs off five hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a setback to Atlanta on Thursday. Cosart owns a 32:31 K:BB ratio between the Marlins and Padres this year. The bottom line: After a suspect start for his new team, Price has been nothing short of briliant over the last two months. This is a man on a personal mission, one which is focused and determined to finish the season on a high note. Price could be in line for a very big night. Cosart has been a disaster and has shown no signs of turning things around. This is a price that we have no issues at all in laying. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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09-07-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -119 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Chicago White Sox. Setting the scene: The White Sox held on for a 2-0 win yesterday and we’re expecting the home side to find a way to the job done again this afternoon in what we feel to be a major pitching mismatch working in its favor. Anibal Sanchez: He’s 7-13 with a 5.70 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against Kansas City on Friday. It was a decent outing by his standards this year, note that he’s just 3-7 with a 7.11 ERA on the road thus far. Jose Quintana: He’s 11-10 with a 3.05 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs over five innings in a setback to the Twins on Thursday. The one bright spot is that he’d go on to strike out eight. Quintana gave up more runs in that one outing than in his previous four combined. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 2.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. The bottom line: Quintana’s 3.05 ERA ranks second in the AL, just ahead of his teammate Chris Sale (3.07) and just behind the Jays’ Aaron Sanchez (2.92). He owns a 3.99 lifetime ERA against Detroit and we think he should be a much larger fav in this one. The value play is on the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-06-16 | Astros v. Indians -200 | 4-3 | Loss | -200 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
This is 5* play on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: Two clubs fighting for a playoff spot clash again on Tuesday night. Houston came out on top 6-2 yesterday, but we expect the home side to bounce back this evening. Brad Peacock: He’s 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Dallas Keuchel was originally slated to start tonight, but he’s been scratched, leaving the door open for Peacock to show what he’s got. He’s been decent in relief in his limited action this season, but note that while with Triple-A Fresno, he’d post a 4.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 21 starts. Also note that he owns a 4.50 ERA on the road in the bigs this year. Corey Kluber: He’s 15-8 with a 3.09 ERA. He comes in with an extra days rest after holding the Blue Jays to two runs off six hits and four walks while striking out eight in the eventual no-decision. Kluber had won four straight previous to that though and note that since the Mid Summer Classic, he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA to go along with 49 strikeouts over 47.2 innings of work. Also note that Kluber is 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our professional opinion, Kluber and he Tribe should be more in the -200 range, than the -150 that we got on Monday night. Jump on this one quick, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-06-16 | Braves v. Nationals -215 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals Setting the scene: One of these starters returns from the DL and is being thrown to the wolves, while the other has turned the corner and is poised to finish the season strong. One of these starters plays for one of the worst offensive clubs in the league, while the other plays on one of the best. In a contest which we predict will end in a completely lop-sided result, we have no issues at all in laying this larger price. Williams Perez: He’s 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA. Perez returns from the 60 day DL because of a shoulder issue. He posted the 4.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP before the injury. Note that he was 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA on the road. Gio Gonzalez: He’s 10-9 with a 4.14 ERA. Most recently he gave up one run off two hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Over his last seven starts the veteran has gone 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Note that Gonzalez is striking out nearly a batter per innning this season. The bottom line: Gonzalez owns a 2.31 ERA in two starts against the Braves this season. In two starts against Washington this year, Perez has posted a 5.62 ERA. Gonzalez gets the big nod in this matchup, so the only question left is, will the home side come in focused? We think the answer is “yes.” Washington has a big opportunity to grab some “easy” victories, with a series at home against the lowly Phillies next and we expect it to make the most of it. Lay the price with confidence on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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09-06-16 | Blue Jays -148 v. Yankees | 6-7 | Loss | -148 | 28 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Toronto dropped two of three to the Rays over the weekend, winning the finale before then boarding a plane to New York. The Jays came out flat in yesterday’s 5-3 setback, but we’re expecting the visitors to bounce back tonight as they get ready to send their ace to the hill. Aaron Sanchez: He’s 13-2 with a 2.88 ERA. Sanchez returned from the minors to pitch a gem against the Orioles last week and has been at his best on the road all year, going 8-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Luis Cessa: He’s 4-0 with a 4.17 ERA. The book is still clearly out on the rookie. He’s looked brilliant on the road so far (2-0, 2.86), but has been poor at home, despite a 2-0 win/loss record his ERA sits at 6.14 in New York. The bottom line: Clearly Toronto can ill afford to look past the Yanks, especially with a tough series against Boston at home later in the week. We think that the Jays’ bats finally wake up here and expect Sanchez to outduel his unproven counterpart. Play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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09-05-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -141 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the LA Dodgers. Setting the scene: Zach Greinke faces his former team for the first time tonight. Greinke has been decent since the All Star break, but hasn’t been at his best in this position all year. His counterpart Kenta Maeda continues to grind out consistent outings. We think Greinke struggles again tonight, while Maeda continues to go about his business with another solid effort. Greinke: He’s 12-4 with a 4.17 ERA. He’s struggled on the road as evidenced by his 5.50 ERA. His current 4.17 ERA is his worst since 2010 and he’s already allowed 140 hits while striking out just 114. Maeda: He’s 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA. Maeda threw for eight years in Japan’s Central League, so can hardly be looked upon as a rookie. In his final campaign in Japan he’d post 15 wins while compiling a tiny 2.09 ERA. He comes in off a tough luck loss vs. the Rockies in Colorado, allowing two runs off four hits and a walk over five innings. The bottom line: Previous to that though Maeda had won four straight starts while allowing 28 hits and only seven walks in 33 2/3’s innings while getting 30 K’s in the process. We think Greinke folds under the pressure while Maeda continues his strong season. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-05-16 | Mets -120 v. Reds | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: The schedule may not be co-operating for the playoff hopeful Mets, but we still think this is a matchup which favors the hungry visitors. New York comes in off an important 5-1 win over the Nats last night and we’re expecting it to carry that momentum over into this afternoon game vs. the anemic Reds. Bartolo Colon: He’s 12-7 with a 3.35 ERA. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 4.01 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. Colon is just 1-2 in all day games, but does own a 3.97 ERA. He’s been solid on the road though, going 7-4 with a 3.26 ERA. Robert Stephenson: He’s been recalled to make this start. So far he’s started two games for the Reds this year, somehow managing to pick up a win in both, giving up four total runs over 12 frames. Remarkable though, as Stephenson has been very unremarkable at Triple-A Louisville this year, posting a 4.41 ERA and 1.36 WHIP after 24 starts. The bottom line: History, both recent and long-term, suggests that New York is in for a big day, as it’s won 16 of the past 18 in this series, including 11 straight. The Mets own the highest winning percentage at Great American Ball Park of any team in the NL at 27-15, which includes the Reds. Stephenson will remain in the rotation until the end of the year, so the pressure is off to perform tonight, as win or lose, his job is not in any jeopardy (for this season at least). New York is back on track, sitting just a game back of St. Louis for the second wild card and we’re expecting it to keep the pressure on this afternoon. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-04-16 | Blue Jays -108 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BOUNCE BACK BLOWOUT on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: After taking two of three from the Orioles, the Jays have come out flat in back-to-back losses in Tampa Bay. We think the hard-hitting visitors bounce back in the finale though, before heading to New York to take on the Yanks and then back home to face the Red Sox. JA Happ: He’s 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision at Baltimore on Tuesday. Happ has been good on the road (7-2, 3.39), but spectacular in all day contests (9-1, 2.84). Chris Archer: He’s 8-17 with a 4.10 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off four hits over seven innings in a victory over Houston on Sunday. After a dreadful start, Archer has looked a lot better since the All Star break. The bottom line: Let’s call the starters a “wash.” Toronto’s loss last night, coupled with the Red Sox win in Oakland now has the rivals tied atop the AL East standings. The Jays can ill afford to look past the lowly Rays today with such a gruelling part of their schedule on deck. We think TORONTO comes in focused and scores the win. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Braves v. Phillies -144 | 6-4 | Loss | -144 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. Setting the scene: Two teams which won’t be playing in the postseason collide on Saturday evening and after letting a late lead slip away in yesterday’s 8-4 setback, we’re expecting the home side to come out fired up today and to find a way to get the job done. John Gant: He’s 1-3 with a 4.59 ERA. Gant was recalled to the majors earlier in the week and will be forced into action in the starting rotation out of necessity. The book is still out on Gant, but he’s not been overly impressive in any area. Vince Velasquez: He’s 8-6 with a 4.21 ERA. He comes in off a gem vs. the Mets on Sunday, allowing one run off five hits over five innings, striking out seven and walking only one. Velasquez has been particularly tough at home this season, going 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA. The bottom line: Gant’s in over his head here, we’re expecting Velasquez to easily outduel his unproven counterpart, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Giants v. Cubs -146 | 3-2 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Chicago Cubs. Setting the scene: Two teams headed to the postseason send their respective aces to the hill and while runs are likely to be at a premium for each side, we think this one favors Jake Arrieta and the Cubbies. Madison Bumgarner: He’s 13-8 with a 2.49 ERA. He’s not done well over his last three starts, posting a 6.35 ERA with a .303 opponents batting average. Arrieta: He’s 16-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He wasn’t at his best against Pittsburgh last Tuesday, giving up a season-high tying six runs over 6 1/3’s innings in the eventual no-decision. Arrieta’s previous incredible numbers were clearly unsastainable, but he still remains one of the best, note that his 16 victories and .185 opponent batting average lead the National League. The bottom line: Bumgarner has had plenty of success against Chicago throughout his career and so to has Arrieta versus San Francisco. Note though that the Giants are -13.7 units against right-handed starters this year, while Chicago is 28-15 (+1.5 units) against southpaws. Lay the price on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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09-02-16 | Nationals v. Mets -155 | 4-1 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been perfect this year, but we think he has a big advantage on the mound this evening. The Mets need to make up some ground and will be anxious to atone for yesterday’s 6-4 defeat at home to the Marlins. AJ Cole: He’s 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA. Cole looked shaky in his season debut and gave up three runs in his last start to the Rockies. His Triple A numbers are unremarkable as well, sitting at 8-8 with a 4.26 ERA after 22 starts. Syndergaard: He’s 12-7 with a 2.55 ERA. He enters this matchup on fire, most recently giving up one run off two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. It was a second straight gem and the Mets’ hard-throwing right-hander will look to add to his 6-4, 2.49 ERA home record. The bottom line: This is a critical series for the Mets. MLB’s spotlight will by in New York tonight and we think that Syndergaard is going to be the difference. Expect “Thor” to easily outduel his unproven counterpart in this pressure packed situation. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-02-16 | Marlins v. Indians -195 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: Andrew Cashner has struggled with consistency this season. Carlos Carrasco on the other hand is putting together perhaps the finest campaign of his career. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our professional opinion, the home side should in fact be a much larger one. Cashner: He’s 4-10 with a 4.73 ERA. Admittedly Cashner has been better of late, but a “hiccup” in the routine spells disaster tonight. Cashner had allowed just one earned run in each of his past two outings, but had his last start skipped over because of a blister issue. These are the types of small “in season” factors that we’ll always keep our eyes open for. Note that Cashner is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA on the road this season. Carrasco: He’s 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA. Carrasco hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been very solid. He’s been especially tough in all night contests, going 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA. The bottom line: Both teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but note a major injury concern for the Fish is that of outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who hurt his wrist diving for a catch earlier in the week (he didn’t play in Miami’s win over the Mets yesterday either). Cleveland on the other hand acquired CoCo Crisp in a trade with the A’s, note that he leads the league with a .424 batting average with runners in scoring position. All signs point to a blowout, lay the price with confidence on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-16 | Yankees v. Royals -133 | 5-4 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Kansas City Royals. Setting the scene: The Royals have won seven straight series and if they want to win an eighth, they’ll have to find a way to get past the Yanks this evening. New York sends a red hot rookie to the hill, while the Royals turn to a surging veteran. Luis Cessa: He’s 4-0 with a 4.11 ERA. Cessa has looked pretty good in his limited time, but note that a dozen of the 15 runs that he’s allowed in 11 career appearances have scored off of seven home runs, spanning 30 2/3’s frames. The book is still clearly out on Cessa at this point. Ian Kennedy: He’s 9-9 with a 3.57 ERA. You could make an argument that Kennedy is the hottest pitcher in the entire league right now and not many would challenge you as he’s 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA in August, allowing only four earned runs over his last 32 1/3’s innings. The bottom line: Both teams are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, but we think Kennedy has a major advantage today and that makes this a price that we have no issue at all in laying. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-16 | Nationals -175 v. Phillies | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washignton Nationals. Setting the scene: The Nationals held on for a 3-2 win yesterday and we think the visitors will carry that momentum over into this one in what is another favorable matchup on the mound for them. Gio Gonzalez: He’s 9-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits and a walk over six frames in an 8-5 win over Colorado on Friday, also going on to strike out five. It was his third victory in his last three decisions and it also marked his 100th win of his career. Note that he’s 7-6 with a 3.69 ERA in all night contests this season. Adam Morgan: He’s 1-8 with a 6.50 ERA. Morgan has been consistently inconsitent all season and has been particularly poor in this spot, 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA in friendly confines and 1-5 with a 6.07 ERA in all night games. The bottom line: Washington is about to finish 20 games in 20 days: "We've got one more game to go now," Nats’ manager Dusty Baker said on Tuesday. "It's 20 in a row, and we're assured of .500 during this time. We really wanted this one tonight because now we're 10-9, and after tomorrow hopefully we're 11-9 and take a break in New York." The Phillies are trending in the opposite direction, having lost six of eight, the anemic offense averaging just 2.3 runs per game in that span. Lay the price with confidence on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-16 | A's v. Astros -200 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Houston Astros. Setting the scene: One of these starters has struggled with consistency throughout his time in the rotation while the other has “righted the ship” and looks to close the season on a high note. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our opinion Mike Fiers and the home side should be even larger ones in this case. Ross Detwiler: He’s 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA. Most recently he gave up three earned runs over five frames in a loss to the Cardinals. Over his last three starts he’s now allowed 14 runs spanning 14 innings. Note that he’s 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA on the road. Fiers: He’s 9-6 with a 4.47 ERA. Fiers started the season on a high, but predictably came back down to earth. The veteran though is once again trending upwards and he’ll look to close the season strong, note that he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd, 6-3 with a 3.43 ERA. The bottom line: Believe it or not, this has become an almost “must win” game for the Astros. After completing this three-game series with the lowly A’s, Houston has a stretch of 13 games against Texas (both away and at home), Cleveland (away) and the Chicago Cubs (at home). We expect Fiers to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the ASTROS to start the difficult stretch of their schedule off a series victory over Oakland. AAA Sports |
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08-30-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -170 | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Setting the scene: We had a play on the Red Sox yesterday and they’d pull away for the 9-4 win. We’re expecting a similar result this evening. Jake Odorizzi: He’s 9-5 with a 3.53 ERA. He’s been great in the second half and most recently beat Boston on Thursday, holding the Red Sox to one run off five hits over seven frames. He’s posted a tiny 1.40 ERA over his last 45 innings worked. Note though that if he’s had one weak spot in his game this year, it’s been his play on the road where he has a pedestrian 4.34 ERA. Drew Pomeranz: He’s 10-10 with a 2.95 ERA. He threw opposite Odorizzi last week and took the loss. He looked sharp in the setback though, giving up just two runs off seven hits with one walk, while also going on to strike out a career-high 11 over six frames. It was his first setback in five starts, but he’d go on to induce an impressive 23 swinging strikes. Pomeranz has clearly turned the corner after a rough start with the Red Sox, over his last five outings he’s posted a 2.40 ERA with 31 K’s in 30 frames. The bottom line: It’s payback time for Pomeranz and the RED SOX. Wrong place, wrong team for Odorizzi today, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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08-30-16 | Blue Jays -142 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -142 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Toronto cruised to an 8-5 win in yesterday’s series opener and will look to keep the momentum rolling in another favorable matchup. JA Happ: He’s 17-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Happ had his 11-game win streak snapped on Thursday when he gave up four runs over five innings to the LA Angels, also going on to strike out six. Happ still looked pretty good in the setback though, sitting down 13 batters in a row with six K’s, before then stumbling in the sixth frame. He’s 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA on the road. Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 5-11 with a 6.62 ERA. He comes in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out four in a setback to Washington on Thursday. Jimenez though is once again struggling across the board this season and is the owner of a 6.67 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: The Jays hold a two-game lead over the Red Sox and a four-game lead over the Orioles for top spot in the East. Baltimore is still dealing with some injury concerns, including to setup man Darren O’Day and slugger Adam Jones. We’re banking on Happ to continue his strong season and for TORONTO to continue its red hot run. AAA Sports |
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08-29-16 | Dodgers -143 v. Rockies | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -143 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Dodgers. Setting the scene: Kenta Maeda has dominated the Rockies several times this year and he’s been unbelievably good when tasked to face them in Colorado’s thin air. Jon Gray comes in off a decent effort, but he’s been consistently inconsistent of late. In our professional opinion, Maeda and the Dodgers are the correct move in this matchup. Maeda: He’s 13-7 with a 3.37 ERA. Over his last six trips to the hill he’s gone 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA, posting 30 K’s comapred to just seven walks over 33 2/3’s frames. In three outings against Colorado he’s 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA with two walks and 22 K’s in 18 2/3’s innings. Gray: He’s 8-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Gray comes in off a decent outing against Milwaukee on Tuesday, holding the Brewers to two runs off four hits over six innings. Previous to that though Gray had gone 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA in three starts. Gray has struggled against the Dodgers throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA in four meetings, three of which have come this year (just 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in those contests). The bottom line: As mentioned off the top, Maeda has thrown very well at Coors Field already this year, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, allowing one walk compared to 13 K’s over 12 frames. Gray owns a poor 5.11 ERA at home. We look for Maeda to do just enough to outduel his inconsistent counterpart, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-29-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -210 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Setting the scene: After getting embarrassed 10-4 by the Royals yesterday, we’re looking for the Red Sox to bounce back with a much better effort this evening as they’ll look to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound. Matt Andriese: He’s 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA. Most recently he’d give up three runs off seven hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. these very Red Sox. Andriese started the season 6-0, but predictably came crashing back down to earth. Previous to this last decent effort, note that he’d failed to make it out of the sixth inning in his last four outings since rejoining the rotation after the trade deadline, posting a 6.84 ERA and 6.02 FIP over that span. Rick Porcello: He’s 17-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Porcello was throwing opposite Andriese last week and he’d also give up three runs while striking out eight over 7.2 frames, also receiving a no-decision. Porcello has been unbeatable at home this year though, a perfect 12-0 with a 2.96 ERA. The bottom line: Porcello is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA in August, while Andriese is 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA in eight appearances since the All Star break. Boston lost two of three to Tampa Bay last week and now it’s payback time. Lay the price with confidence on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-27-16 | Angels v. Tigers -220 | 3-2 | Loss | -220 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Tigers. Setting the scene: This is a titanic mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate and that makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Brett Oberholtzer: He’s 3-2 with a 5.27 ERA. Oberholtzer now takes the spot of the struggling Jhoulys Chacin and he’s his first start since coming over to the club earlier in the month. So far the southpaw owns the poor 4.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP through 50.1 innings out of the bullpen this year. Michael Fulmer: He’s 10-4 with a 2.58 ERA. He comes into this one off a little extra rest after getting knocked around in his last start. The rookie has already faced the Angels this year and shut then down over eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and posting an 8:2 K:BB ratio. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Detroit needed some late inning heroics to continue its surge in yesterday’s 4-2 win, but we’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout this afternoon. Lay the price with confidence on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-27-16 | Royals +151 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP DOG on the Kansas City Royals. Setting the scene: The Royals held on for a 6-3 win yesterday and we think the defending champs offer awesome value in this spot as well. Danny Duffy has been one of the surprises this year, while counterpart David Price has endured an up-and-down campaign to this point. Duffy: He’s 11-1 with a 2.66 ERA. Most recently he allowed one run off eight hits while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Minnesota on Sunday. Duffy has now held his opposition to one run or fewer in five of his last seven starts and has posted a win in each of his last five trips to the hill. Note that Duffy is 5-1 with a 2.04 ERA on the road. Price: He’s 12-8 with a 4.00 ERA. He comes in off a strong effort vs. Tampa Bay on Monday, going eight scoreless. Price has now won three straight starts, but note that despite a winning 7-3 record, he owns a pedestrian 4.25 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Kansas City is surging towards the finish line, the Royals have won 11 of their past 12 and 16 of 19 to pull within three games of the Orioles for the second wild card spot. Boston is trending in the opposite direction, loser of three straight. The value is simply too good to turn down here, we’re backing the red hot Duffy and the white hot ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-16 | Angels v. Tigers -205 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Detroit Tigers. Setting the scene: The Angels just took two of three from Toronto and are poised for a big letdown. The Tigers are getting healthier and their bats are starting to come alive in their hunt for a playoff spot. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting Justin Verlander to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Ricky Nolasco: He’s 4-11 with a 5.22 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out three over five innings in a setback to Seattle on Monday. Nolasco has posted a horrible 5.19 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 17.1 innings for the Angels, allowing four home runs in just three outings. Note that Nolasco has struggled in this spot all year, going 2-8 with a 5.99 ERA in all night games. Verlander: He’s 13-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He comes in off a big win over the Red Sox on Sunday, allowing one run off three hits over six innings while also going on to strike out five. It was Verlander’s eighth straight quality start and ninth in ten outings, a stretch in which he’s posted a tiny 1.97 ERA and 74:17 K:BB ratio spanning 68.2 innings. Note that Verlander has been tough at home all year, going 8-4 with a respectable 3.28 ERA. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one, we’re going to lay the price with confidence as Verlander continues his mission for another Cy Young and the TIGERS continue their race for the postseason. AAA Sports |
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08-24-16 | Orioles v. Nationals -153 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -153 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals. Setting the scene: Washington has lost three straight, including two in a row in Baltimore after yesterday’s embarrassing 8-1 setback. We think the Nationals have a major advantage on the mound and in the motivational department tonight though and expect Tanner Roark and this explosive Nats’ lineup to make the most of it. Wade Miley: He’s 7-10 with a 5.58 ERA. Most recently he gave up six earned runs off six hits over just 1.2 innings while striking out five in a loss to Houston on Friday. Miley is now 0-2 over his first four trips to the mound this month and unfortunately for the veteran a date on the road is likely not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA away from friendly confines this season. Roark: He’s 13-6 with a 2.87 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. Atlanta on Friday. Roark has posted five straight quality outings and in 17 of 25 starts this year. Note that he’s been very effective at home this season in posting a 2.44 ERA. The bottom line: Considering the clear mismatch on the mound and how motivated and focused the Nationals will be playing tonight after going 0-2 in Baltimore, we’re surprised that this line isn’t a lot higher. The value is on WASHINGTON in this one. AAA Sports |
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08-23-16 | Mets v. Cardinals -163 | 7-4 | Loss | -163 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Setting the scene: Both of these starting pitchers have struggled this year, but one has gotten better as the season has progressed, while the other continues to slide. We think that the Cardinals offer great value in this matchup. Jonathon Niese: He’s 8-7 with a 5.30 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off four hits (including two home runs) over four innings in a loss to Arizona on Wednesday. His first start since coming back to the Mets was a disaster and we have a hard time imagining his next one going very well either. Note that Niese is just 5-6 with a 5.09 ERA in all night games. Jaime Garcia: He’s 10-8 with a 4.11 ERA. Garcia comes in off a gem on Wednesday, going eight innings and allowing two runs off six hits. Garcia had gone eight shutout innings in his previous start, so there’s now no question whatsoever that the veteran is once again trending in the correct direction. Note that Garcia is 6-5 with a 3.18 ERA at home. The bottom line: The Cards are dominating at the plate of late, posting 26 home runs over their last 12 games. And that doesn’t bode well for Niese, who is 1-1 vs. St. Louis this year, allowing a whopping 13 runs off 24 hits spanning 16 innings. In our opinion, this line should be a lot larger. Play on St. Louis. AAA Sports |
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08-23-16 | Angels v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Neither of these starters instills a lot of confidence, but one of these teams is fighting for top spot in its division, while the other is simply going through the motions to end the season. When the dust settles at the end of this one, we’re expecting the hard-hitting home side to deliver the goods. Tyler Skaggs: He’s 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over just three innings in a loss to the Mariners on Wednesday. Note that he’s been particularly bad on the road, owner of a 5.71 ERA away from friendly confines. RA Dickey: He’s 8-13 with a 4.51 ERA. He enters off an outing to forget as well, allowing four runs over four innings vs. Tampa Bay on Monday. Dickey looks to get back on track and his 3.62 ERA in all night games suggests he could be in line for a bounce back effort this evening. The bottom line: Does Dickey have a massive advantage over Skaggs? Obviously not, but we do think that Toronto has a major advantage at the plate. Slugger Jose Bautista won’t be in the line-up tonight, but it’s not going to matter. Look for the BLUE JAYS’ big bats to make the most of this opportunity and for Dickey to earn another elusive victory. AAA Sports |
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08-22-16 | Cubs -205 v. Padres | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. Setting the scene: Jon Lester is quietly putting together one of the best campaigns of his career. His counterpart today, Edwin Jackson, has been consistently inconsistent all year. After yesterday’s embarrassing 11-4 loss at Colorado, we’re expecting the Cubs to respond today. Lester: He’s 13-4 with a 2.86 ERA. Lester comes in off a gem vs. Milwaukee on Wednesday, scattering three hits and giving up a single run over seven innings. Lester has now given up one or zero earned runs in 14 of his 24 starts this season. The veteran has been on a blistering pace and a small amount of regression is expected before the end of the season, but despite that, note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA on the road and 9-0 with a 2.49 ERA in all night games. Jackson: He’s 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA. Most recently Jackson gave up eight runs off nine hits over four innings in a setback to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Jackson had looked decent in back-to-back outings, but took another major step back against the Rays. Note that he’s 1-2 with a 6.58 EA in all night contests. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one, Chicago has a big advantage on the mound and at the plate today and after yesterday’s “brain fart,” we’re expecting the Cubs to come into this one focused. Lay the price with confidence on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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08-22-16 | Indians -148 v. A's | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* American League SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the entire league right now and it will be sending a starter to the hill who has dominated on the road this season. Oakland is playing out the rest of a miserable campaign and hands the ball to an inconsistent and unproven rookie. Carlos Carrasco: He’s 8-6 with a 3.34 ERA. Carrasco comes in off a sub-par outing for his standards, giving up five runs off eight hits in a no-decision vs. the White Sox on Wednesday. There was a silver lining however, as Carrasco would strike out 11 and walk no one. Despite the sub-par outing, Carrasco has still racked up 28 strikeouts over his last 20 innings. Andrew Triggs: He’s 0-1 with a 4.98 ERA. In his most recent start he gave up just one run over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Triggs has only made three big league starts. The bottom line: Cleveland swept three straight from Oakland at home earlier in the year, winning 5-3, 6-3 and 8-0. Oakland is at a major disadvantage in every department today. Carrasco is the superior starter. The A’s limp back home after a miserable 1-5 road-trip, while the Indians storm into Oakland having won eight of their last 11, including two of three from the Blue Jays over the weekend. The visitors also have big advantages at the plate and in the overall momentum category. With those three major factors all working in our favor, it’s time to pull the trigger on this 10* GAME OF THE WEEK. AAA Sports |
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08-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians -152 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: Two teams which hope to make a deep playoff run collide in the finale of a three game set on Sunday afternoon. Cleveland took the first game 3-2, while Toronto bounced back in yesterday’s 6-5 victory. In what should be another nail-biter, we’re expecting Corey Kluber and the home side to take advantage and find a way to get the job done. Marcus Stroman: He’s 9-5 with a 4.63 ERA. Stroman has been solid since the All Star Break and most recently gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a victory over Houston on Sunday. He owns a 3.33 ERA over his last eight starts, but note that he does own a poor 1.4 HR/9 ratio over that span. Corey Kluber: He’s 13-8 with a 3.15 ERA. Kluber comes in off a gem vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off seven hits while also striking out seven over six innings. Note that his 163 strikeouts are fourth-best in the American League, to go along with just 38 walks overall. Kluber is getting better down the stretch as he’s won four in a row while posting a 1.65 ERA over his last seven. The bottom line: Stroman owns a 4.56 ERA on the road, while Kluber has a 2.96 ERA at home. For arguments sake, we’re going to call these potent line-ups a “wash.” But we’re going to give Kluber the big nod on the mound this afternoon. Stroman’s inexperience in these types of important regular season contests turns out to be a difference maker, play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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08-20-16 | Twins v. Royals -130 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals. Setting the scene: Hector Santiago has struggled since coming over to Minnesota and we think the beleagured southpaw is in for another “long” night vs. this determined home side. Santiago’s counterpart Ian Kennedy has looked fantastic over the last month and we’re expecting the veteran to continue his recent surge with another big effort. Santiago: He’s 10-7 with a 4.80 ERA. He’s looked horrible in two starts for his new team, most recently he gave up five runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Astros Tuesday. Santiago has now given up eight runs off 12 hits for the Twins and has given up 24 home runs over 132 innings so far in 2016. Kennedy: He’s 7-9 with a 3.78 ERA. He enters off a 3-1 win at Detrot on Monday, allowing one run off five hits, while also striking out five over 6.2 innings. The veteran has been red hot lately, allowing just three earned runs over his last four combined starts spanning 26 innings. The bottom line: Kansas City has quietly put together a six-game win streak. Kennedy is actually 1-0 with a minuscule 0.95 ERA this month and we think he’ll find a way to outduel his outclassed opponent this evening. Lay the price on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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08-17-16 | A's v. Rangers -205 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Texas Rangers. Setting the scene: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our opinion, Yu Darvish and the Rangers should in fact be much larger ones. All signs point to a lop-sided wire-to-wire destruction Darvish: He’s 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA. Darvish has gotten better with each outing since finally returning off the DL from Tommy John surgery and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his perfect 3-0, 2.86 ERA record at home. Sean Manaea: He’s 4-7 with a 4.57 ERA. He’s coming off a win over the Mariners on Friday, giving up three runs over six innings. Manaea has looked better after a shaky start to his big league career, but if he’s had one glaring weakness this season it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s 0-4 with a 6.88 ERA. The bottom line: Darvish has historically struggled against the A’s, but he comes into this one fresh. TEXAS has a big opportunity here and we’re expecting it to take advantage and secure the series sweep, lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-17-16 | Nationals -156 v. Rockies | 10-12 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Washington Nationals. Setting the scene: Jon Gray has likely been the Rockies’ most consistent starter this year, but Stephen Strasburg has been ranked among the elite since Day 1. We think Strasburg outduels his counterpart and the Nationals take full advantage of another very favorable pitching matchup. Strasburg: He’s 15-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Strasburg is coming off a couple of rough outings, most recently allowing six earned runs over 5.1 innings in an eventual 8-5 loss to Atlanta on Friday. He’d also strike out seven and post first-pitch strikes on 20 of 25 batters overall. We think Strasburg finally settles down today and while it obviously won’t be easy throwing at hitter friendly Coors Field, it’s still significan to note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.05 ERA in all day games and a perfect 8-0 with a tiny 1.70 ERA on the road. Gray: He’s 8-6 with a 4.55 ERA. Gray has been downright horrible of late, most recently giving up seven runs off six hits in his team’s 10-6 setback to Philadelphia on Friday. Gray has now given up 15 runs off 16 hits and five walks over eight innings over his last two starts. Gray owns a 4.94 ERA at home. The bottom line: Strasburg owns the super road record, while Gray continues to back his way into the end of the season. Lay the price with confidence on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-16-16 | White Sox v. Indians -170 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: The Indians had to play a make-up game vs. the Red Sox yesterday and they’d fall 3-2. We’re looking for Corey Kluber to continue his strong season and for the Tribe to take out their frustrations on Jose Quintana and the visiting White Sox. Quintana: He’s 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA. Most recently he gave up just one run over seven innings vs. Kansas City on Wednesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. Quintana is putting together a superb 2016 campaign, but there’s some room to read between the lines, as he’s been the beneficiary of luck on balls in play and a high strand rate despite allowing more hard contact than ever before. What we’re saying is, we’re expecting some regression sooner rather than later. Kluber: He’s 12-8 with a 3.21 ERA. After a rocky start to the season, Kluber has turned things around in a big way. He’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 6-4, 3.09 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: For arguments sake we’ll call these pitchers a “wash.” We’ll give the hard-hitting INDIANS the big nod at the plate though and that’s going to make this a price that we can live with paying. AAA Sports |
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08-16-16 | Marlins v. Reds -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cincinnati Reds. Setting the scene: After dropping yesterday’s game 6-3, we look for the home side to respond on Tuesday night. Jose Urena: He’s 1-3 with a 6.69 ERA. Urena has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start to replace Adam Conley in the rotation. In 19 appearances, including three starts, Urena owns the 6.69 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, most recently giving up eight runs over just 4.1 innings on July 29th. Anthony DeSclafani: He’s 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings while also striking out five in his first loss of the season. DeSclafani has excelled in this spot for bettors all year though, going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: The Reds are relegated to playing spoilers this year. Miami’s recent injuries to its starting rotation and to slugger Giancarlo Stanton are likely going to be too much for the team to overcome down the stretch. DeSclafani is well worth the price of admission tonight, play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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08-16-16 | Blue Jays -125 v. Yankees | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: The Yanks are 61-57. The Jays are 67-52. There’s still a ton of baseball to be played and these two AL East foes are now closer together in the standings than ever before. After falling 1-0 in yesterday’s series opener, we’re expecting Toronto to respond on Tuesday night. Marco Estrada: He’s 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA. He’s coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up three runs (just two earned though) off seven hits, while also managing six strikeouts in a loss to Tampa on Tuesday. It was just the third time this season that the veteran failed to throw at least six frames, so no need to panic if you’re an Estrada fan. Note that he’s already beaten the Yanks twice this year. And finally note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.17 ERA on the road this season. Michael Pineda: He’s 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA. Most recently he would give up two runs off eight hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. Boston on Thursday. Pineda can sure throw the ball hard and his strikeout and walk ratios are actually all great. It’s just that he has a nasty tendency to give up the long-ball (1.44 HR/9). Note that Pineda owns a 5.04 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: The race is on the AL East, it’s a log-jam of teams and no one can afford to take their foot off the gas. We think Estrada is by far the superior starter in this matchup and we also like the immediate “revenge factor” working in favor of the JAYS after yesterday’s tough loss. AAA Sports |
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08-15-16 | Nationals -164 v. Rockies | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Nationals. Setting the scene: One of these starters has gotten better as the season has progressed, while the other has seemingly gotten worse as the year has worn on. Suffice it to say, we think that hard-throwing Max Scherzer and the hard-hitting Washington Nationals have a big advantage in this matchup. Scherzer: He’s 12-7 with a 2.80 ERA. The Nationals’ ace most recently went seven frames vs. the Indians on Tuesday, giving up two runs off three hits with one walk compared to ten strikeouts, but still took a loss for his overall impressive effort. Scherzer has now posted six straight quality starts and he’s now once again leading the majors with strikeouts (208). Note that he’s posted a 2.96 ERA on the road this year. Jorge De La Rosa: He’s 7-7 with a 5.25 ERA. The Rockies’ veteran most recently gave up three runs off seven hits with only one strikeout over five innings vs. the Rangers on Wednesday. De La Rosa’s ERA and WHIP are the worst they’ve ever been since he joined Colorado back in 2008. Whether at home or on the road, De La Rosa has struggled. The bottom line: Coors Field is tough on every pitcher, but there’s no question that this one favors the visitors. We think that Scherzer continues his end of season surge and that the NATIONALS find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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08-14-16 | Cardinals v. Cubs -175 | 6-4 | Loss | -175 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. Setting the scene: The Cards broke the Cubs’ 11-game win streak in yesterday’s 8-4 effort. Chicago though had taken the first two games of this series and we’re expecting the hard-hitting home side to take advantage of this favorable pitching matchup and get right back into the win column. Mike Leake: The Cardinals’ starter is 8-9 with a 4.79 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off six hits to go along with four walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. Cincinnati on Tuesday. Note that Leake had allowed at least six runs in each of his previous three starts. Leake has been a disappointment this year, note that he owns a poor 5.01 ERA on the road. John Lackey: The Cubs’ starter is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA. Most recently he allowed just one run off three hits while striking out six and walking only one over eight innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Lackey would go on to throw first-pitch strikes to 17 of 27 batters and he’s now posted four straight quality outings and owns a 23:4 K:BB in 27 innings over that span. Note that Lackey has excelled at home this year, going 6-4 with a 2.67 ERA. The bottom line: These two pitchers are moving in opposite directions. The Cubs will be anxious to atone for yesterday’s loss as well. In our professional opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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08-14-16 | Braves v. Nationals -212 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Washington Nationals. Setting the scene: After a disastrous debut, Braves’ pitcher Tyrell Jenkins has looked a lot better, but we think that has more to do with the competition that he’s faced, rather than complete dominance on his part. Nationals’ starter Tanner Roark has been the very model of consistency this season though and we look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue his strong 2016 campaign. Jenkins: He’s 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA. Most recently Jenkins allowed one run over six innings in a win over the Brewers on Tuesday. He now has four quality outings in his last five starts. Note though that he owns a poor 13:20 K:BB ratio. Also note that the Pirates are in fact the only club that Jenkins has faced with a winning record this year. And finally note that Jenkins owns a poor 4.71 ERA on the road. Roark: He’s 12-6 with a 2.88 ERA. Most recently Roark outdueled San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner on Sunday, going seven scoreless and allowing just five hits while also striking out five to pick up the 1-0 victory. Roark now leads the majors in outings of seven or more scoreless innings with a total of seven. Note that Roark is 5-2 with a 1.82 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: We love laying chalk when the situation calls for it. Washington escaped with a 7-6 victory last night and we think the home side carries that momentum over into this favorable matchup. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-13-16 | Padres v. Mets -208 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: One of these starters has struggled with consistency all year, while the other is putting together perhaps the best campaign of his career. Suffice it to say, we feel that Jacob DeGrom and the Mets are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Jarred Cosart: He’s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off ten hits over five innings in a no-decision vs. Philadelphia on Sunday. In two starts since being acquired from the Marlins, Cosart has allowed 11 hits, six walks and five earned runs over 8.1 innings of work. DeGrom: He’s 7-5 with a 2.35 ERA. He most recently allowed one run over 6.2 innings in a no-decision vs. Detroit on Sunday. It was DeGrom’s third straight quality out and 15th out of 20 this year. Note that DeGrom is 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: After dropping three straight to the lowly Diamondbacks this week, the Mets came up short in yesterday’s opener with San Diego, falling 8-6. The team is now one game under .500. It’s do or die for the METS, they’ll have to find a way to salvage this series or get ready to start planning for next season. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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08-13-16 | Astros v. Blue Jays -173 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: The Astros Colin McHugh has for the most part struggled this season, while the Jays’ Aaron Sanchez has been very consistent. We think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. McHugh: He’s 7-9 with a 4.69 ERA. On Monday he would give up three runs off ten hits in a setback to Minnesota. It was the fourth time he’s allowed ten hits in a game and note that he’s given up at least four runs eight times in 23 outings this season. McHugh has not been very good on the road this year, just 3-5 with a 5.25 ERA. Sanchez: He’s 11-2 with a 2.85 ERA. Sanchez hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s certainly been excellent. He’ll be looking to improve upon his 3-0, 4.19 ERA record in all day games and his 4-1, 3.45 ERA record at home. The bottom line: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. Sanchez is looking to make the most of his now limited time as a starter (was under an inning restriction since before the season started), while we predict that McHugh’s inconsistencies on the road continue. Lay the price with confidence on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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08-12-16 | Tigers v. Rangers -170 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Texas Rangers. Setting the scene: One of these starters has regressed as the season has progressed, while the other has gotten better with each outing. We think Yu Darvish and the Rangers get the job done tonight. Anibal Sanchez: He’s 6-11 with a 5.58 ERA. He comes into this one off a decent performance vs. the scuffling Mets on Sunday, but has been horrible on the road this season, just 2-6 with a 7.38 ERA. Darvish: He’s 2-3 with a 2.78 ERA. He also comes in off an excellent outing vs. the Astros on Sunday, giving up no runs off five hits while striking out eight over seven frames. Darvish hasn’t given up more than three runs in any game since returning from the DL in late May and owns an impressive 1.06 WHIP so far this season. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Darvish is 5-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five starts vs. the Tigers in his career and that doesn’t bode well for a Detroit team which comes in the loser of four straight, managing just six runs over 33 innings while getting swept by the Mariners most recently. Lay the price with confidence on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-12-16 | Padres v. Mets -140 | 8-6 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: The Padres are on the outside looking into the playoff picture, while the Mets are still in a dog fight for the second wild card spot. After getting swept by the lowly D-Backs this week, we think the home side comes in focused to this matchup. Paul Clemens: He’s 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA for San Diego. He’s yet to win for his team since coming over on the waiver wire at the end of June. Clemens has a 4.00 ERA in all “night” contests. Logan Verrett: He’s 3-7 with a 4.66 ERA, forced into a starters role due to the injury to Matt Harvey. Verrett has been solid at home though with a 3.53 ERA. The bottom line: This has essentially become a do-or-die series for the Mets, one which will determine if they continue the fight for a playoff spot or starting planning for next year. We think the desperation level in which the home side plays with today will turn out to be the difference. Play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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08-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -222 | 9-0 | Loss | -222 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Massive mismatch on the mound: Braden Shipley is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA this year. Shipley has made two starts so far in the bigs and looked poor in his road start, posting a 4.76 ERA. Noah Syndergaard is 9-6 with a 2.64 ERA and has been the victim of poor run support this year, receiving just six runs of over his last three decisions. All were losses. Syndergaard has enjoyed a ton of success at home though (is 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA so far this year) and we think that run continues this afternoon. The bottom line: After three straight starts without a victory, we look for “Thor” to come in focused on the task at hand and to easily outduel his overmatched opponent. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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08-10-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -190 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: The Rays’ Blake Snell: It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, he’s 3-4 with a 2.95 ERA. He’s been better on the road as a starter than at home as well. We simply feel that his opponent is still better and that this is an overall bad position for him. The Jays’ JA Happ: Happ is 15-3 with a 3.09 ERA. He’s been solid across the board, putting up consistent numbers whether it’s at home (3.02) or on the road (3.15) and whether throwing in the day (2.63) or the night (3.60). The bottom line: Happ has had issues with the Rays this year, but he’s 9-0 with a 2.49 ERA over his last ten starts. Toronto remains one of the most prolific offensive clubs in the league, but has been scuffling of late, averaging just 2.8 runs over its last ten games. After falling 9-2 to Rays yesterday, we’re expecting the home side to finally respond with a focused effort this evening, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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08-09-16 | Phillies v. Dodgers -180 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the LA Dodgers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Kenta Maeda: We think he’ll be the biggest factor in today’s game. Maeda is 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA. Maeda gave up just two runs over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Rockies at Coors Field. Maeda has also been dominant at home, posting a 3.17 ERA. Vince Velasquez: Velasquez is 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Velasquez left his last start vs. the Giants on Thursday early with a blister. Velazquez has been dominant at home this year posting a 1.72 ERA compared to a 4.69 ERA on the road. The bottom line: Walks have been a major factor for Velasquez of late, issuing 17 free passes and striking out 34 in his last 36 innings of work. Along with his higher road ERA, all signs point to a long night for the visitors. There are also several red hot LA hitters right now, including first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who was 2 for 4 yesterday and who has multiple hits in each of his past three games. Play the Dodgers. AAA Sports |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -185 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the St. Louis Cardinals. We think it’s safe to say that the Cards’ attitude right now would be: “Enough is enough!” St. Louis now sits 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the second Wild Card spot after losing six of its last eight, including two straight to the lowly Braves most recently. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, the Reds turn to the volatile Cody Reed (0-6, 7.30 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits and a walk over five innings vs. St. Louis late last week. Reed is struggling in every facet of the game and owns a pathetic 4:3 K:BB in his last ten innings of work. He’s also allowed a disturbing 11 home and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this year, 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA thus far. Michael Wacha (7-7, 4.35) is having a down season, but he’s certainly been a lot better than Reed. Wacha most recently gave up two runs off six hits over five innings in a win over Cincinnati on Wednesday. Wacha has now gone 5-0 over his last eight starts and his 3.94 xFIP and 3.66 FIP (the best indicators of future ERA), both suggest that the hard-throwing right-hander is poised to bring his numbers back down to career levels sooner rather than later. It’s the wrong place and the wrong time for Reed and the Reds, lay the price with confidence on the hungry CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-08-16 | Giants v. Marlins -144 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -144 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Miami Marlins. It’s hard to say anything negative about Giants’ starter Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.73 ERA), he’s enjoying likely the finest season of his career. We simply feel that Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.87) has a major advantage when throwing in front of the home town crowd and we’re expecting the Marlins to take advantage. Note that Fernandez is an amazing 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA at Marlins Park for his career. Miami is in tight race for the second wild card spot, sitting just ahead of the Cards and the Mets. The Giants lead the National League West, but after winning 16 of Cueto’s first 18 starts this year, they’ve since droped three of his last four. Note that San Francisco is a poor 3-8 (-4.2 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +150 range, while Miami is 8-5 (+1.2 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range. We’re looking for Fernandez to get back into the winners circle this evening and to continue his dominance in front of the home town crowd, play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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08-07-16 | Cubs -165 v. A's | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. Chicago rolled to a relatively simple 4-0 win with Jake Arrieta on the mound yesterday afternoon and suffice it to say, we’re expecting a similar if not even bigger victory for the Cubbies this afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (10-7, 2.22 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Fish on Monday, scattering seven hits, walking three and striking out five in the eventual complete game shutout. Hendricks has arguably been the best pitcher in all of MLB over the last month as he’s now held the opposition without an earned run in six of his past eight trips to the hill. Amazingly, Hendricks now owns the best ERA in the Cubs rotation, with Arrieta (2.75) and Jon Lester (2.95) now trailing. No matter the venue, Hendricks has dominated in day games thus far, going 6-2 with a tiny 2.12 ERA. His counterpart is Sean Manaea (3-6, 4.68) who was rocked for five runs off six hits and three walks to go along with four K’s in a setback to the Angels on Tuesday. In 15 starts this year the rookie has now given up 14 home runs. Clearly that doesn’t bode well in facing one of the league’s most prolific offenses today. We think Hendricks is severely undervalued in this matchup, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-07-16 | Mets -121 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the New York Mets. Jacob DeGrom has been as rock solid as the Mets could have possibly asked for this season, while the Tigers’ Anibal Sanchez has been all over the map as far as his game to game consistency is concerned. After falling 6-5 in Saturday’s interleague contest, we’re expecting the visitors to bounce back this afternoon. DeGrom (7-5, 2.41 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Yanks on Tuesday, going seven shutout frames and allowing just four hits and one walk compared to eight strikeouts. DeGrom’s 117:26 K:BB ratio this season ranks among the best and note that he’s been particularly potent in this spot all year, going 5-1 with a tiny 2.08 ERA in all day games. Sanchez (6-11, 6.26) comes in off a decent outing vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off six hits. He’d only strike out two though compared to three walks. Unlike his counterpart today, Sanchez has not fared well in day games this season, going just 3-5 with a poor 6.00 ERA. DeGrom has been razor focused all year, it’s hard to imagine him having a letdown this afternoon and we’re certainly expecting him to outlast the volatile Sanchez. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value,” play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-16 | Orioles -138 v. White Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -138 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles will look to build off yesterday’s 7-5 series opening victory and they have to be feeling pretty confident that they can keep the momentum rolling by sending the rejuvinated Chris Tillman to the hill and also in getting to face the volatile Carlos Rodon. Tillman (14-3, 3.46 ERA) is enjoying one of the best campains of his career and he’s been particularly effective on the road so far, going 6-2 with a very respectable 3.13 ERA (he’s also 9-3 with a 3.45 ERA in all “night” games). Rodon (2-8, 4.67) returned from the DL on the final day of July to face the Twins and he’d go on to get shelled for five runs off eight hits and two walks over six innings. Rodon has now been rocked for at least four earned runs in each of his last three trips to the mound (and note that Rodon has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, going just 1-4 with a 5.06 ERA. Also just 1-6 with a 5.34 ERA in all night contests). We love Tillman in this matchup, Rodon’s inconsistencies continue and all things considered, there’s no question in our minds that the “price is right!” Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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08-04-16 | Dodgers -131 v. Rockies | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Dodgers. Tyler Chatwood has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, dominating on the road, but tanking badly in front of the home town crowd. Kenta Maeda on the other hand has been pretty solid no matter the venue this season and after the Dodgers embarrassing 12-2 setback yesterday, we’re expecting LA to take full advantage of this favorable matchup and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Maeda (9-7, 3.23 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Saturday. Maeda has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight, not only is he a very respectable 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA on the road, but he’s also done very well vs. the Rockies this year, allowing just one run over 13 innings of work. Chatwood (10-6, 3.50) comes in off a satisfying road victory over the Mets on Friday, allowing just one run off three hits over seven innings. He’s now 6-0 on the road, compared to just 4-6 with a 5.69 ERA and seven home runs allowed in front of the home town crowd. We’re giving Maeda the big nod in this matchup and fully expect the DODGERS to respond after yesterday’s blowout setback. AAA Sports |
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08-03-16 | Nationals -219 v. Diamondbacks | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals. This is a mismatch of Titanic proportions, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Max Scherzer (11-6, 2.85 ERA) who went seven innings vs. San Francisco on Friday, allowing just one run off five hits to go along with six K’s. It was Scherzer’s sixth straight quality start and 17th in 22 outings this year. Mad Max has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 7-4 with a highly respectable 2.92 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Zack Godley (3-1, 5.63) who was shelled for five runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a fortunate victory over the Reds on Sunday. Godley has now been rocked for at least four runs in each of his last three starts. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our opinion, Scherzer and the NATIONALS should be in fact be much larger ones. Lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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08-03-16 | Marlins v. Cubs -182 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Tom Koehler (8-8, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently went six scoreless vs. the Phillies on Tuesday. Koehler took advantage of a toothless Philadelphia lineup, but we’ll caution in reading too much into the performance, as he has been an absolute “gas can” in this position all year, just 5-5 with a 4.55 ERA on the road and only 2-5 with a ballooned 5.36 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with John Lackey (8-7, 3.69) who comes in off a gem vs. the White Sox on Thursday, earning his first win since June 8th by holding them to one run over six innings of work. The veteran has to be liking his chances to keep the momentum rolling today as he’s 4-3 with a very respectable 3.90 ERA in all “day” games and an even better 5-4 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Lackey gets the nod in this matchup and we feel he is well worth the price of admission, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-16 | Marlins -110 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Marlins. As good as Jason Hammel has been this season, Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez is on an entirely different level in our opinion and suffice it to say, we’re expecting the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Fernandez (12-5, 2.79 ERA) comes in off a rare poor performance vs. the Cardinals on Thursday, giving up five runs off six hits with two walks while striking out nine over five innings in the eventual loss. Fernandez though is putting together a historic season, with 184 K’s in 125.2 innings of work, he’s now working on the third-highest strikeout rate by a starter in league history. Fernandez will be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here, he’s already 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA in all “night” games this year. Hammel (10-5, 3.23) gave up two runs off four hits over five innings to earn a victory over the Brewers on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Hammel, so we won’t. The bottom line is we feel this is a matchup that favors Fernandez as we look for the visitors to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-16 | Giants -205 v. Phillies | 8-13 | Loss | -205 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Francisco Giants. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. The visitors hand the ball to ace Madison Bumgarner (10-6, 2.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over eight innings vs. Cincinnati in his last start. Over his last three outings Bumgarner has 24 K’s spanning 21 innings to go along with a highly respectable 3.00 ERA. And note that for the season he’s 5-3 with a 2.73 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the erratic Zach Eflin (3-4, 4.23) who was lit up for seven runs off nine hits with four walks while striking out just one over five innings in a setback to Miami on Wednesday. Eflin has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year, but clearly the rookie has a long way to go before being considered a top tier consistent starter. We’re banking on Bumgarner to continue his dominant season and to outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price with confidence on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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08-01-16 | Marlins v. Cubs -175 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs came from behind to steal a game vs. the Mariners 7-6 last night and we think the home side will carry that momentum over into this one. This is a perfect situational play as Miami is primed for a big letdown this evening after taking the final two games of its four game series vs. the Cardinals over the weekend, including yesterday’s come from behind 5-4 victory. Adam Conley (7-5, 3.38 ERA) comes in off a gem, albeit against the light-hitting Phillies on Wednesday, going 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing eight hits and three walks. We’ll caution in reading too much into the effort though as it was in fact just the fifth time in 21 starts this year in which he’s worked more than six innings. The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (9-7, 2.39) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks with seven K’s over 5.2 innings in a setback to the White Sox on Tuesday. It was the first time since late June that Hendricks had given up an earned run. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Hendricks fan though obviously, he’s enjoying the finest campaign of his career and despite the loss, he would still impressively induce 14 strikeouts and seven groundouts while also throwing 64 of his 97 pitches for strikes. Hendricks has to be feeling pretty confident that he can make an immediate return to the winners circle tonight as he’s been nearly unbeatable at home this year, going 7-1 with a minuscule 1.36 ERA. Taking all of the above information into account, we feel that Hendricks and the CUBS are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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07-31-16 | A's v. Indians -175 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray (5-9, 5.43 ERA) who would most recently give up three runs off five hits and two walks with eight K’s over six innings in a setback to the Rangers on Tuesday. Gray has been a complete mess of late, having allowed fewer than three runs just once in his past five starts, while also allowing six dingers in that span. The home side counters with Corey Kluber (9-8, 3.44) who gave up three runs off six hits and a walk over seven innings while also striking out eight in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Orioles on Sunday. Kluber continues to turn the corner as he’d go on to generate an impressive 20 swinging strikes. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, these two starters are moving in opposite directions right now. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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07-31-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -159 | 6-2 | Loss | -159 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. Some may think this is a “trap” game or a “letdown” situation for Toronto, which has taken the first two games of this important divisional series, but we don’t think that will be the case. With a chance to solidify their lead atop the standings, we’re expecting the Blue Jays to keep their foot on the gas and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Tillman (14-3, 3.47 ERA) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Tuesday. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (11-1, 2.72) who shutout the Padres over seven innings on Monday, scattering three hits and striking out seven in the process. Sanchez has now given up a total of just eight earned runs over his last seven games. Tillman has been great this season, but Sanchez has been better. “Momentum” is a very real thing in sports and the home side has a ton of it right now. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-30-16 | A's v. Indians -180 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. No need to overthink this one, this is a mismatch of Titanic proportions and that makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. The vistors hand the ball to Dillon Overton (1-1, 8.40 ERA) who returns to the Majors after being optioned to Triple-A on July 20th. Overton made one start in the minors during that span and was rocked for five earned runs over seven innings of work. Across three MLB starts he owns a deplorable 8.40 ERA. The home side counters with Josh Tomlin (10-3, 3.48) who posted eight strikeouts, but who would also give up four earned runs in a 5-2 setback to Baltimore on Saturday. Tomlin has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot though as he’s 4-1 with a very respectable 3.62 ERA in all “day” games this year. In this matchup of David vs. Goliath, it’s the giant that comes out on top in the end. Lay the price on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-30-16 | Mariners v. Cubs -235 | 4-1 | Loss | -235 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The Cubs won 12-1 yesterday and will look to keep the pressure on the Mariners by sending ace Jake Arrieta (12-4, 2.76 ERA) to the hill, he most recently allowed four runs off five hits and two walks to go along with six K’s over six innings in a no-decision vs. the White Sox on Monday. Arrieta has been “human” over the last month, but he’ll be feeling pretty confident in this spot obvoiusly, not only is he 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA in all day games, but he’s 4-2 with a tiny 1.61 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. Wade Miley (6-8, 5.23) gets the call for the visitors, he’d most recently allow two runs off four hits over six innings in a 2-0 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Miley has been a bit better of late, but he still owns a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in the month of July. Note that Miley has been particularly ineffective on the road this season, going 3-4 with a 5.46 ERA. We think that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, lay the price with confidence on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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07-30-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -167 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 6* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. With a chance to move even with its division rival and build off yesterday’s 6-5 victory, we’re expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.37 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Rockies on Monday, giving up two runs over six innings of work. Gallardo though has struggled with consistency and longevity all year and note that this is a spot in which the veteran has been horrible in, going 1-2 with a poor 6.94 ERA on the road to date. The home side counters with JA Happ (13-3, 3.27) who comes in off a gem vs. the Mariners on Sunday, going six scoreless and allowing just a single hit while also striking out six. Happ has been particularly effective in this position all year, going 8-1 with a 3.22 ERA at home and 7-1 with a 2.77 ERA in all day contests (note that Gallardo owns a 5.14 ERA in all day games). We’re giving Happ the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to make this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-29-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -192 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Kenta Maeda and the home side should in fact be much larger ones. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (3-1, 5.88 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off ten hits with two walks while striking out three over 5.2 innings on Sunday. Godley has now allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this year, posting a poor 7.71 ERA thus far. Maeda (9-7, 3.25) gave up two runs off five hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a win over St. Louis on Saturday. Maeda has been a bit shaky of late, but he’ll be confident in this spot for sure as he’s posted a very respectable 3.20 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. Lay the price with confidence on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-29-16 | Red Sox -170 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Boston Red Sox. After dropping yesterday’s game 2-1, we like the hard-hitting Red Sox to bounce back tonight and to take advantage of this favorable pitching matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (13-2, 3.57 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off six hits and a walk while striking out eight over 6.2 innings in a fortunate victory over the Twins on Sunday. Porcello though would pitch into the seventh frame for a third straight start and the 11th time in 20 outings this year. Porcello will now look to improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 3.23 ERA in all “night” games this season. Tim Lincecum (2-4, 8.70) gets the nod for the home side, who after a great start to his 2016 campaign, has since been rocked, most recently allowing eight runs off seven hits over just 1.1 innings in his last start. “The Freak” has now given up at least five runs in four of his last five outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble at home, going 1-2 with an atrocious 8.76 ERA. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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07-29-16 | Phillies -147 v. Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -147 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This is a pitching mismatch of Titanic proportions, which makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. The Phillies send Vince Velasquez (8-2, 3.34 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off an outing to forget vs. the Pirates on Sunday, allowing four runs off seven hits over six innings. He would go on to strike out five in the sub-par performance. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Phillies fan though in our opinion, note that it was the first time in seven starts that he’s given up more than two runs in an outing. Velasquez will now look to return to form and improve upon his already impressive 5-1, 3.17 ERA in all night games this year. Tyrell Jenkins (0-2, 6.17 ERA) gets the nod for the home side, he was most recently blasted for seven runs off eight hits and five walks over just 3.1 innings in a loss to the Rockies on Sunday. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Velasquez should in fact be a much larger fav in this particular matchup. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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07-29-16 | A's v. Indians -153 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cleveland Indians. Kendall Graveman (7-6, 4.15 ERA) has been better of late for the A’s, but he’s been consistently inconsitent all year. He most recently gave up three earned runs in a complete game vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday. Graveman though has been shaky on the road all season, posting a ballooned 5.25 ERA away from friendly confines. The visitors counter with Trevor Bauer (7-4, 3.65) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the hard-hitting Orioles on Friday, giving up five earned runs over 4.1 innings of work. Bauer has endured a tough July, but for the most part he’s been as solid as Cleveland could possibly ask for. And now he’ll look to stop the bleeding and improve upon his very respectable 5-2, 3.39 ERA in all “night” games this year. We’re giving Bauer the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Lay the price on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -130 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore was supposed to have a day off yesterday but instead was forced to play a make-up game in Minnesota. The Orioles lost that contest and now have to transition over to Toronto to play a cruicial divisional series vs. the Jays, who sit two games back of Baltimore for the second wild card spot. From a scheudling stand-point, clearly this one favors the well rested Blue Jays. Toronto also gets the nod on the bump tonight. Orioles’ starter Kevin Gausman (2-7, 3.77 ERA) has been serviceable this year and has been the victim of poor run support, but his biggest weakness has been his play on the road where he’s 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA. Marco Estrada (5-4, 2.94) looked great in his first start after the break, holding the Mariners to two runs over six innings on Friday. Estrada will now look to build upon his already impressive 2.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-28-16 | Royals v. Rangers -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Texas Rangers. One of these starters has struggled in this spot, while the other has dominated in it. The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura (6-8, 4.99 ERA) who left his start early on Saturday after taking an Adrian Beltre hit off the ribs. Ventura was likely going to be pulled soon anyways as his team would go on to lose 7-4 to the Rangers. Note that Ventura has struggled with consistency all year and has been particularly horrible on the road, going 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA. The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (11-2, 2.87) who gave up one unearned run off five hits and three walks while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a victory over these very same Kansas City Royals last week. Hamels has now held the opposition to one or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts and is an almost perfect 7-1 with a very respectable 2.78 ERA in all “night” games this year. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, we think Hamels will continue his resurgent season and take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-27-16 | Angels v. Royals -118 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Kansas City Royals. After getting spanked 13-0 yesterday, we’re expecting the home side to bounce back and respond this evening. The visitors turn to Matt Shoemaker (5-10, 3.99 ERA) who took a loss vs. the Astros on Friday despite allowing only two runs off five hits over 6.2 innings of work. Shoemaker has been the victim of poor run support this year, but note that he’s not fared well in this spot all season either, going just 3-6 with a 4.74 ERA on the road thus far. The Royals counter with Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.14) who continued his dominant season with a commanding effort vs. the hard-hitting Rangers on Friday, allowing one run off four hits with two walks over 6.2 innings in the eventual victory. Note that Duffy has been particularly effective at home, going 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA. We’re going to give Duffy the slight nod in this matchup and that, combined with the revenge factor after yesterday’s embarrassing effort, does indeed make the ROYALS the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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07-26-16 | Tigers v. Red Sox -190 | 9-8 | Loss | -190 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. After falling 4-2 in yesterday’s series opener, we’re expecting the home side to bounce back in a big way tonight. The vistors turn to the oft-maligned Mike Pelfrey (3-9, 4.78 ERA) who comes in off a rare victory vs. the White Sox on Thursday, holding them to one run off eight hits over 5.1 innings of work, managing just one K in the effort. Pelfrey has been a bit better of late, but note that he’s just 2-7 with a poor 4.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. The home side counters with Steven Wright (12-5, 2.67) who continued his dominant season with a commanding effort over the Twins on Thursday, striking out nine and allowing just two runs (one earned) off four hits and a walk over eight innings of work. Wright has now posted nine victories in his last 12 starts while keeping his ERA under 3.00 in the process. Note that Wright is 7-1 with a very respectable 3.20 ERA at home and an even better 10-2 with a tiny 2.89 ERA in all night contests. This is a mismatch of Titanic proportions, all signs point to a lop-sided destruction. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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07-25-16 | Cubs -200 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -200 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Jake Arrieta and the visiting Cubs should be much bigger ones. The home side hands the ball to Miguel Gonzalez (2-5, 4.41 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners on Wednesday. Gonzalez has looked a bit better of late, but note that this is a spot in which he’s struggled in mightily all year, going just 2-3 with a poor 5.86 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Arrieta (12-4, 2.60) returned to form in his last start after three straight poor outings, giving up just one run over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mets on Tuesday. Arrieta gave up just one walk while striking out eight in the masterful performance. Note that Arrieta is 8-2 with a respectable 3.44 ERA on the road and is an even better 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA in all “night” games this year. It’s always a heated battle between these cross-town Interleague rivals, but we feel that Arrieta is on an entirely different level than Gonzalez and we look for the CUBS to take full advantage of this favorable mismatch. AAA Sports |
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07-24-16 | Braves v. Rockies -180 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT is on the Colorado Rockies. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we think that Tyler Chatwood and the Colorado Rockies should be much bigger ones. The visitors hand the ball to Tyrell Jenkins (0-1, 4.05 ERA) who lost to the Phillies in his first start and who received a no-decision vs. the Reds on Tuesday. The book is obviously still out on Jenkins and while it’s one thing to look decent against Philadelphia and Cincinnati, it’s quite another to dominate the Rockies in Coors Field. The home side sends Tyler Chatwood (8-6, 3.83) to the hill. Chatwood has been poor at home this year (6.26 ERA) and downright filthy on the road (1.89). We’re still giving Chatwood the big nod in this matchup though, he’ll be super eager to reverse his fortunes in front of the home town crowd and note that he has in fact dominated in this spot all year, going 5-1 with a tiny 2.83 ERA in all day games. Lay the price with confidence on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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07-24-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. We don’t think there’s any need to overthink this one. Toronto has lost the first two games of this series and was blown out badly in yesterday’s 14-5 setback. Blue Jays’ starter JA Happ though has been solid all year, while Seattle pitcher Wade Miley has been anything but. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting Happ to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the home side to exact a little revenge in the finale. Seattle comes into this one complacent we think, the two straight wins means the team is now three games over .500, and with a day off tomorrow before a two-game interleague mini-series at Pittsburgh mid-week, it’s also not too hard to imagine the Mariners getting caught “looking ahead.” Miley (6-7, 5.36 ERA) owns a poor 2-3, 5.45 ERA in all “day” games this year and an even worse 5.75 ERA on the road. Happ (12-3, 3.43) is 7-1 with a respectable 3.59 ERA at home and is an even better 6-1 with a 3.05 ERA in all day contests. We have no issues at all in laying what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-23-16 | Mets v. Marlins -145 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH is on the Miami Marlins. Here are a couple of team’s battling for the second wild card spot in the division, as Miami sits just a 1/2 game head of New York. Each team sends its respective ace to the mound in this one. Miami looks to bounce back after falling 5-3 on Friday night. New York turns to Jacob DeGrom, who is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA over his past four starts. DeGrom has been as rock solid as the Mets could possibly ask for this season, but we feel that Jose Fernandez has the advantage today. Fernandez is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six career starts vs. New York and is basically unbeatable at home, going 25-1 with a 1.43 ERA in Marlins Park for his career. Furthermore, the Marlins are 11-6 in July and have yet to lose consecutive games this month. We’re banking on Fernandez being just a little bit better than DeGrom and expect his team to get some revenge after last night’s setback. Play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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07-22-16 | Mets v. Marlins -135 | 5-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Miami Marlins. Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.21 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’d most recently receive a no-decision in a 4-2 loss to the Phillies on Saturday, giving up two runs off eight hits over six innings. Verrett was hit hard, but managed to limit his damage luckily. Note though that he owns a very pedestrian 4.50 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Adam Conley (6-5, 3.61) who allowed three runs (two earned) off three hits while striking out nine over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Cardinals on Sunday. Conley has now held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this matchup as he’s posted a very respectable 2.87 ERA in all “night” games this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Conley should be a much larger fav, play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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07-22-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Toronto Blue Jays. Marco Estrada’s last start before the break was skipped and he was purposefully passed over in the rotation until now to give the veteran even more time off for a big second half push. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the veteran to come in on top form for this one. Estrada (5-3, 2.93 ERA) leads the American Leauge in WHIP, BAA and OPS against, while also posting the league’s third-best overall ERA. Estrada has registered a quality outing in 12 of his starts. Surprisingly though he’s been the vicitm of poor run support with just 4.1 per game. Toronto is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, so we feel it’s just a matter of time until Estrada starts to see some larger support. Note that Estrada owns a very respectable 2.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date. The visitors counter with the erratic James Paxton (2-4, 4.56) who for the most part has looked shaky this season, note that he’s been particularly ineffective on the road thus far, going 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.26 ERA. We’re banking on Estrada to come into this one focused and refreshed and look for him to outduel his erratic counterpart. Play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-21-16 | Orioles +102 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Orioles. The visitors hand the ball to ace Chris Tillman (13-2, 3.29 ERA) who we feel is getting little respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. Tillman would most recently allow one earned run off four hits and three walks over seven frames in his team’s 2-1 win over the Rays on Saturday, while also striking out six. It was Tillman’s third straight victory and third consecutive outing that he’s worked into the seventh inning, while giving up just a single run. Note that he’s been particularly tough in this position all year, going 4-0 with a 4.10 ERA in all “day” games and an even better 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA on the road to date. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (5-7, 3.94) who was most recently rocked for five runs off nine hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a 5-2 loss to Boston on Saturday. After a great start to the 2016 campaign, Sabathia has predictably started to scuffle and he’s been downright horrible over his last five starts, giving up a whopping 27 runs off 39 hits to go along with ten walks over 28.1 innings of work. Unfortunately for the southpaw a date at home is not conducive in trying to stop the slide as he’s just 1-4 with a poor 4.73 ERA in New York. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Yanks, who have already taken the first three games of this series and who won’t be able to help themselves in looking ahead to their interleague series with San Francisco over the weekend. Conversely, Baltimore will be desperate and focused as it looks to salvage the finale and build momentum. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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07-20-16 | Giants v. Red Sox -184 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Boston pulled away for a 4-0 win vs. Jake Peavy yesterday and we think the home side will once again take advantage of a favorable pitching matchup vs. another struggling veteran. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Cain (1-5, 5.34) who has been cleared to go after a stint on the DL. Cain threw one rehab start and was blasted for nine earned runs vs. High-A competition. The home side counters with the newly acquired Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.47) who is no stranger to facing his old division rivals, in three other outings vs. the Giants he’d go 0-2 despite a tiny 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings of work. It’s time for some revenge, Pomeranz will look to do his part on the mound and he now has a line-up which has the potential to give him a ton of support any time he’s handed the ball. We think Pomeranz shines in his debut, while we’re expecting Cain to get the early hook. Lay the price with confidence on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-20-16 | Twins v. Tigers -168 | 4-1 | Loss | -168 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Detroit Tigers. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and we look for Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers to take full advantage. The Twins turn to Ervin Santana (3-8, 4.12 ERA) who was removed in the sixth inning of his last start vs. the Indians on Friday after taking a come-backer off his wrist. Santana though was likely going to get the hook anyways as he’d already been blasted fof four runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in the setback. Santana hasn’t been horrible this year, but he’s not been great either, he owns a pedestrian 1-3, 4.00 ERA on the road this year. Verlander (9-6, 3.91) would give up two runs (one earned) off four hits and two walks while striking out ten over seven innings to earn the victory over Kansas City on Friday. Verlander has now held his opposition to two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts. After dropping yesterday’s contest 6-2, we expect the home side to come in focused and look for Verlander to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-19-16 | Mets +141 v. Cubs | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP DOG on the New York Mets. We think Noah Syndergaard can duel his counterpart Jake Arrieta into the latter frames, making the value on the underdog just too good to turn down in this matchup. The Mets will be especially motivated today as well after dropping yesterday’s contest 4-1. Syndergaard (9-4, 2.56 ERA) comes into the second half energized: "It feels like I have a new arm,” he’d remark after throwing from 90 feet on Friday after suffering fatigue in his previous start. The hard-throwing right-hander has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s 5-3 with a 2.68 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with ace Jake Arrieta (12-4, 2.68) who has shown considerable “cracks in the armor” over the last month and a half. In fact, over his last three starts Arrieta has struggled with control and when he faced the Mets on July 2nd, he’d get rocked for four earned runs over 5.1 innings of work. We think Arrieta’s issues continue here and a resurgent Syndergaard helps his team back into the winners circle. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-18-16 | Rangers v. Angels -121 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the LA Angels. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and it’s time to pull the trigger on our biggest MLB side of the season. AJ Griffin (3-1, 3.81 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he was most recently rocked for six earned runs off nine hits and a walk over five innings in a 15-5 loss to Minnesota on Sunday. Griffin opened the season by winning three of his first four starts, but would then post five-straight no-decisions before this outright setback. Griffin has now also given up a home run in four straight starts and hasn’t made it past the fifth frame since May 2nd. Griffin has steadily regressed as the season has progressed. The home side counters with Nick Tropeano (3-2, 3.12) who gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. hard-hitting Baltimore on Saturday. Since returning from the DL, Tropeano has given up just three earned runs over 11 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in all “night” games this year as well. Texas remains atop the AL West with a 55-38 record, but comes to town after dropping two of three vs. the Cubs in the Windy City, while 40-52 LA enters off a confidence building 3-0 sweep of the White Sox, outscoring Chicago 16-1 in the process. When taking into account all of the above information, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-18-16 | Marlins -205 v. Phillies | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Miami Marlins. This is a mismatch of Titanic proportions on the mound this evening and we have no issues at all in laying the price. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jose Fernandez (11-4, 2.52 ERA) who after an uncharacteristically poor start vs. the Braves, would bounce back with a gem vs. the Reds on Friday, striking out eight and allowing one unearned run off six scattered hits over seven innings. He did not issue a walk. Fernandez closed the first half of the season inside the top six in the NL in wins, K’s, ERA and WHIP. Note that Fernandez has been particularly tough in all “night” games this year, going 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA. The home side counters with the erratic Aaron Nola (5-8, 4.69) who owned a fantastic 2.65 ERA on June 5th, but who has since been a complete “gas can,” inflating his ERA by more than two full runs after an extended stretch of ineptitude. And unfortunately for Nola, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s just 2-6 with a poor 5.28 ERA in Philadelphia so far this season. We expect Fernandez to be focused on the task at hand in his first start following the break and to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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07-17-16 | Dodgers -157 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -157 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Dodgers. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (8-6, 2.95 ERA) who comes in off a dominant performance over the Padres on Sunday, giving up just one earned run off two scattered hits over seven innings in the eventual 3-1 victory. It was the fourth time in seven starts that the 28-year old has allowed only a single earned run. He’d also post 24 swinging strikes overall and struck out 14 of the first 15 batters he faced. LA has to be liking its chances today as Maeda is 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the erratic Robbie Ray (4-8, 4.81) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in an loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Over his last four starts Ray is 1-3 with a ballooned 6.05 ERA and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s a poor 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA in Arizona to date. After letting yesterday’s series opener slip away late in the 2-1 setback, we look for the hard-hitting DODGERS to exact a little revenge this evening. AAA Sports |
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07-17-16 | Mets -160 v. Phillies | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets. We’re giving the nod to the Mets in this matchup, both on the mound and at the plate. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (5-4, 2.61 ERA) who turned down a spot in the All Star game because he wanted to rest. In his last start before the break DeGrom would give up two runs off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over Miami on Wednesday. DeGrom has been sharp so far in July, giving up just three runs over 12 innings of work to go along with 14 K’s to just three walks. Over his last three starts he’s posted a tiny 1.35 ERA and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, as he owns a very respectable 2.84 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-2, 4.08) who comes in off a 10-3 win over the Rockies on Sunday, giving up just two runs off seven hits over six innings. The book is still out on Eflin in our opinion though and there’s no question that he draws a tough matchup today vs. the hard-hitting Mets. Also note that Eflin has already struggled in this position this year, going 1-2 with a ballooned 6.64 ERA in all day games. As we mentioned off the top, we think New York has the advantage both on the hill and in the hitting department this afternoon and with those two factors working in its favor, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |