Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -147 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES The Yankees have lost five in a row to the Red Sox, including two times in this series. Previous to that, they were on a 23-6 against them. But today looks like the ideal time to turn things back around as Gerrit Cole will be starting. Cole, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts, has a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Pitching for a team like the Yankees, you’d think he’d have a better team start record than 8-7. But Cole does also have the most strikeouts (123) through 15 starts for any Yankees starter EVER. There’s just no comparison between him and Eduardo Rodriguez, today’s starter for Boston. Over his last eight starts, Rodriguez is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA. Opponents are hitting .325 off him. Somehow, the Red Sox offense continues to bail him out as the team has won his last four starts. But because Cole is the opposition here, don’t look for the Boston bats to bail Rodriguez out again. He’s given up at least four runs in seven of those past eight starts. We have a hard time believing that Boston would sweep the Yankees twice in the same month. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Cubs shocked us last night, not only beating the Dodgers but no-hitting them! The 4-0 win was certainly not what we had envisioned when playing the Dodgers on the run line. Los Angeles is now 0-4 vs. Chicago this year and yesterday was their fourth straight loss overall. Earlier this week, they were swept in San Diego. There’s a real sense of “underachieving” hovering around the team right now, but we are doubling down tonight and saying the Dodgers put an end to this madness with an emphatic win Friday. The Cubs are 2-7 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. They are 8-16 in that role the last three seasons. The Dodgers had been shut out only one other time this year (before last night) and in that case they came back to win 3-0 the next day. They are 6-1 since 2019 after being shutout. They are 3-0 in Gonsolin starts in 2021 (that’s who is starting today). Jake Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.25 ERA his last five starts for Chicago. The Dodgers, despite the recent woes, should still be considered one of MLB’s elite teams. They are not going to lose every game to the Cubs this year. We don’t need to lay the -1.5 today and a Dodgers win here seems quite likely. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-24-21 | Indians v. Twins -179 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA It says a lot that Minnesota would be favored like this. The Twins have drastically underachieved in 2021 as they are 31-42 and in last place in the Central. But coming into the season, it was projected that they’d be battling with the White Sox for division supremacy, They did win the division each of the last two years. So looking at this line, it seems as if the oddsmakers still believe a turnaround is possible. We agree. Cleveland, who is 10 games up on the Twins right now, has seen its starting rotation decimated by injuries. That’s why you have Jean Carlos Mejia starting tonight’s game. Making four starts so far, Mejia has been bad. He gave up six runs to Pittsburgh in a game where there was no DH. He has an 11.17 ERA the last three starts. Minnesota had shown signs of turning things around recently as they’d won five in a row before losing 10-7 to the Reds on Tuesday. They’ve scored seven runs in four of their last six games. So it should be a solid night at the plate vs. Mejia. One spot where the Twins always seem to do well is when Jose Berrios is pitching. They’ve won his last seven starts. Berrios looks to extend that win streak here against a team he’s pitched pretty well against in the past. The Indians are 0-6 the L6 meetings in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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06-23-21 | Brewers -175 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee actually dropped the series opener to Arizona, but then wasted little in bouncing back with a 5-0 win last night. Yesterday’s loss means the Diamondbacks are 3-32 in their L35 games. They’ve lost 41 of 47. They’d lost a franchise record 17 in a row coming into the series and there is seemingly no light at the end of the tunnel here. Ketel Marte, who is hitting .366, left in the first inning last night with an injury, Arizona ended up with just two hits in the game. Adding insult to injury, there was an embarrassing play in the field Tuesday where a Brewers runner that pulled up lame rounding third was still able to score. Believe it or not, it gets words. Caleb Smith, who is this afternoon’s starting pitcher, is 0-4 in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers. Despite being off a rare poor outing (was in Colorado), Woodruff has 1.94 ERA and 0.76 WHIP this season. Both numbers are among the best for qualified starters. The Brewers are 10-4 in Woodruff starts. How could you NOT take them here? This game may not be the focal point of the Milwaukee media on Wednesday, but the town’s sports fans will have something to cheer about before the Bucks game even tips off. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-22-21 | A's -145 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland lost Monday, 8-3 to the Rangers. Because of that they’re now a game back (of Houston) in the AL West. We expect them to bounce back Tuesday. The last three times Cole Irvin has started a game for the A’s, they’ve been victorious. He’s on the hill tonight. Irvin didn’t have his best stuff in his last start when he gave up four runs. But the two before that were both quality outings. Texas was originally set to go with Jordan Lyles, but now it’s Taylor Hearn, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Hearn has never started a game before at the big league level. The Rangers are the last place team in the division and with a 10-game gap to make up, that’s where they will likely stay for the remainder of 2021. They’d lost six games in a row going into Monday. Oakland has now lost three in a row for just the the third time since starting the year 0-6. Each of the previous two times, they’ve responded by winning. In fact, we took them the last time they were in the situation and it was a 12-6 win against Seattle. The A’s are 8-1 this year as road favorites of -125 to -175. They are in that range today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-22-21 | Astros -190 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON They were such an easy winner yesterday, why not go with the Astros again today? We can’t believe they’re not north of -200 on the money line. As previously discussed, the two teams here are going in very opposite directions. Coming off last night’s win and an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won eight in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by a game over the Athletics, and have the best run differential in the sport right now (+120). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-24 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Pitching today for the Astros will be Greinke. Since we were willing to take Jake Odorizzi yesterday, taking Greinke is a no-brainer. He has an 11-4 TSR. On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Jorge Lopez goes for Baltimore. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three starts. Can you say “mismatch?” Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-21-21 | Astros -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We’ve got two teams going in opposite directions here. Coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won seven in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by percentage points at least, with the best run differential in the sport right now (+112). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 10 of their last 11. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-23 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Jake Odorizzi isn’t our favorite pitcher on the Houston staff, but he’ll suffice tonight. Akin starts for Baltimore after giving up eight runs in his previous start. The Astros score 5.8 runs/game on the road. That’s the highest average in baseball. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-20-21 | Marlins v. Cubs -143 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO Two straight humiliating defeats at home is definitely not what the Cubs expected from this series vs. the Marlins. They’ve been outscored 21-3 the past two days. Typically, when a home team gets roughed up, they bounce back the following day. That didn’t happen for the Cubs yesterday, but we think it will today. This is a good home team. They’re 24-12 at Wrigley Field in 2021 and 92-57 here since the beginning of 2019. Miami is just 15-25 on the road in 2021 and 60-93 since the beginning of ‘19. Considering that the Cubs are averaging a healthy 5.0 runs/game at the Friendly Confines, you’ve got to think the offense is due to turn things around after a quiet week at the plate. They’ll face Zach Thompson, who has just two big league starts under his belt. He was better in the second one, but still lasted just five innings. Alec Mills will also be making just his third start of 2021 for the Cubs, but he’s a veteran. Miami came into yesterday’s game hitting just .218 on the road this year. They are bound to cool off. The last two days are just not reflective of the two teams. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-19-21 | Blue Jays -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Toronto ought to be a lot better than two games below .500 and fourth place in the American League East. They have scored 39 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. But they’ve been headed in the wrong direction this week by losing five in a row. Getting swept by the Yankees is one thing, but losing to Baltimore (which they did Friday) should be considered a real embarrassment. It wasn’t even close as the Jays went down 7-1 in the opener of this three-game series. The Orioles have lost 19 straight road games, but are 6-2 their last eight games at Camden Yards. While they may be better at home, the Orioles aren’t likely to win back to back games here as their starter for today has a 3-7 team start record and is really struggling. It’s Dean Kremer, whose last three starts have resulted in an 8.76 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Winless at Camden Yards so far (0-3), Kremer has an 8.41 ERA in his home park. Toronto starter Manoah has had no problems pitching on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 1.06 and 0.88. Baltimore is just 9-22 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-18-21 | Brewers -183 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee dropped a game in Colorado last night as they’ve now lost four in a row. This losing streak, which also saw them get swept at home by Cincinnati, has dropped them out of first place in the National League’s Central Division. They are a game back of the Cubs, who won yesterday. So it’s definitely time for the Brewers to right the ship and we couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have on the mound tonight than Corbin Burnes. With a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Burnes is having a sensational start to the season. The majority of his 11 starts have come at home, but the three on the road have seen him allow only two runs and seven hits. That’s in 18 innings where Burnes has 28 strikeouts vs. only one walk. The Brewers have come out ahead each of the past three times Burnes has started. Ironically, he didn’t have his best stuff last time. He’ll need to be better here as he’s pitching at Coors Field, but the Rockies also figure to give up their fair share of runs in this one. Colorado is on its third four-game win streak of the season. They’ve never been able to make it five. Senzatela is on the mound and he’s been the Rockies’ biggest money-loser in the starting rotation with a 3-10 team start record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We like the Mets to make it a four-game sweep over the Cubs tonight. Both of today’s starting pitchers - Kyle Hendricks for Chicago and Marcus Stroman for New York - enter this game with an 8-5 TSR. But Stroman has the lower ERA and WHIP, plus the benefit of pitching for the hotter team. Of course, right now there is a sense of “gloom” hanging over the Mets as they await the prognosis of Jacob deGrom, who left last night’s game (after three perfect innings) due to right shoulder soreness. But Stroman has also been a key piece of this rotation. While his 2.33 ERA is third best on his own team (behind deGrom and Taijuan Walker), it is ninth best in the whole National League. While it’s true that the Cubs have won six straight Hendricks’ starts, he has a 4.46 ERA, over two full points higher than Stroman. The Cubs have scored only seven runs in this series and were held to one hit until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game. The Mets have a 20-6 home record with the opponents averaging 2.1 runs/game! The Cubs are 14-20 on the road. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -134 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers will look to make it three in a row over the Phillies tonight and finish off the sweep. We really like their chances of doing so. We had them in last night’s 5-3 win in what was the first full capacity game (for fans) at Chavez Ravine this season. The Dodgers have won seven of eight overall. Though they are a game behind the Giants, there’s really no denying who the oddsmakers would favor if the two NL West rivals were matched up. Just like there’s no denying who should be the favorite in this inter-divisional matchup. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight for Los Angeles. Believe it or not, the Phillies are the lone NL team to have a winning all-time record vs. Kershaw (5-4). But we don’t think that record matters much tonight as Kershaw is off a strong outing against Texas, which the Dodgers ended up winning 12-1. Kershaw allowed one unearned run and three hits in six innings. While Wheeler has been pretty good for Philadelphia, he’s no Kershaw and the Phillies’ road record (11-21) is a problem for them. So is Wheeler’s 5.87 career ERA vs. LA. This is a mismatch that is not being priced properly. Don’t overthink this one. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland continues to have its way with Baltimore as last night they handed the Orioles a 17th straight loss on the road. It was 7-2 on Tuesday after the Indians won the first game of the series 4-3. The MLB record for most consecutive road losses is 22, last matched in 1963. The Orioles have been incredibly sloppy at Progressive Field, committing six errors in the two games. When a bad team is sloppy in the field, they’ve got almost no chance of winning. Aaron Civale has a 10-3 team start record for Cleveland and will start Wednesday night. That TSR is very good. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have 11 team wins to their credit. Civale has been excellent in his last five starts as he’s 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and only four walks. He struck out a season-best 11 batters last week vs. Seattle while allowing just one hit in eight scoreless innings. Keegan Akin goes for Baltimore. He did throw five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland in the previous series between the teams, a game the Orioles won 3-1. But it’s just too hard to trust him or his team right now. The O’s haven’t just lost 17 in a row on the road, they are 0-6 the L6 overall. They are 21-44 in the third game of a series after losing the first two. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-15-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA The Dodgers look to make it two in a row over the Phillies on Tuesday. They won the first game of the series, 3-1. They got only three hits, but two of them were home runs and that was all that was needed to beat a team that’s now just 11-20 on the road. Philadelphia had some momentum coming into this series. They’d won six of seven. But they aren’t likely to fare well against this opponent, which should still be considered the best team in baseball, no matter what the record is. Urias has a 10-3 team start record and 0.97 WHIP for LA. Eflin has posted a career-best ERA for Philadelphia, but is still winless in his last five starts and he has a 9.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Expect more offense by the home team tonight. They are 19-9 in home games when they homer at least once. They are 50-16 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 the previous three seasons. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-13-21 | Astros -131 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON The Astros and Twins have split the first two games of this series. We like the road team, behind Framber Valdez, to take the rubber match and series. This will be Valdez’s fourth start in 2021. So far he has faced Boston twice and San Diego. He has not allowed more than one run in any of the starts and has gone progressively deeper into games. He went 7 ⅓ last week at Fenway, struck out eight and walked no one. If Valdez can contain two of the highest scoring teams in baseball, surely he can do the same to a Twins team whose season has generally been pretty miserable. Minnesota has won back to back games only one time in June. That was against Kansas City. Since the first series of the year, there’s been only one other time besides KC where the Twins beat the same team on consecutive days. That was a three-game sweep of Baltimore. Pineda has lasted a total of 7 ⅓ innings his last two starts for the Twins. Houston has yet to lose twice in a row this month. Won’t happen here. This is a very attractive price on the better side. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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06-12-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -159 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO For a while, it looked like it would be the Cubs and Cardinals competing for NL Central supremacy this year. But now it’s the Brewers that the Cubs are tied with atop the division. They look to take advantage of the slumping Cards again on Saturday with Kyle Hendricks starting the game. St. Louis has just one win in its previous eight games. It was 8-5 Cubs on Friday afternoon as Pederson, Rizzo and Contreras all homered. It was the Cubs third straight win after taking two in San Diego. This is the first series where a full house is allowed at Wrigley Field. "It just felt really energetic," manager David Ross said about yesterday’s game. "The outfield was packed, beautiful day. That was a nice W. ... Clearly, those fans helped us win that game." Hendricks looks to help make it two in a row over the Cardinals and four in a row overall. The last time Hendricks started against St. Louis was 5/21 at Busch Stadium and the Cubs wound up winning 12-3. Hendricks is 5-0 his last five starts, all of them quality. Gant goes for St. Louis and he allowed seven runs his last start. With Gant, the ERA is very misleading as his WHIP is 1.592. Two teams going in opposite directions. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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06-12-21 | Padres -124 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO With only three wins in the last 12 games, this is the coldest the Padres have been all season. In what is poised to be a very tough three-team battle in the NL West with the Dodgers and Giants, SD is currently in third place. But we’ll look for them to bounce back from last night’s 3-2 loss to the Mets behind the sensational Joe Musgove this afternoon. Musgrove deserves way better than a 6-5 team start record in 2021. He has a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. While Musgrove failed to beat the Mets one week ago, that was due to him having to go up against Jacob deGrom, who beat the Padres again last night. In last Saturday’s start, Musgrove had 10 strikeouts in five innings. He did give up three runs, but had allowed two or less in 8 of his first 10 starts this year. The Mets have been tough to beat at home this year (16-5 WL record) and Stroman has been sharp. But Stroman did have a season-high four walks in his last start, which was against San Diego. Look for San Diego to get the job done here behind Musgrove. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-11-21 | Royals v. A's -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland should bounce back from a surprising 6-1 loss last night. Kansas City came into this series on a five game losing streak. They were swept down in Los Angeles to start the week. The number of runs that the Royals scored yesterday matched what they has scored in the previous four games combined. Very surprising to see the A’s with only three hits in yesterday’s game. They’d come in on a 7-1 run and had scored a minimum of four runs in every one of those eight games. Brady Singer looks like a good pitcher to target for a fade in this one. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last three starts. This Royals righty has never pitched in the Pacific Time Zone. The team has won only four of his 12 starts this year. Cole Irvin has the same team start record for Oakland, but a lower ERA and WHIP. Irvin also pitched very well in his last trip to the mound. The A’s were winning 1-0 in the seventh last night before a catcher interference call swung the game dramatically. Thursday’s final score was not indicative of the two teams. Oakland leads the West Division with a 37-27 record. KC is under .500. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-11-21 | White Sox -155 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We like the White Sox to roll their division rivals in Friday’s series opener. Chicago is having an excellent season thus far. They are first in the Central with a 38-24 record. They’ve allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. Coming off a winning series against Toronto, the White Sox now head to Detroit. They just took three of four games from the Tigers last week. We get a better price on them on the road, which is nice. The Tigers have been playing somewhat better of late, but are still only 26-36. They’ve scored the least amount of runs in the AL. So their lineup vs. White Sox pitching is quite the mismatch. Lucas Giolito is who the Tigers will face tonight. They did hit three homers off him last weekend when they picked up their only win of the series. But Giolito has previously allowed exactly one earned run in five of six starts in May. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 9 of 12 starts overall. Skubal has a 3-7 TSR for Detroit and only one quality start. Don’t overthink this one. Take the much better team. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-10-21 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Have to play against Castillo here. The Reds have lost 10 of his 12 starts so far with one of the wins coming last week in St. Louis. That surprisingly strong outing against a slumping Cardinals team should be viewed as the exception rather than the rule, however. Castillo’s ERA (6.63) and WHIP (1.663) both remain very high. He was 0-6 in May. One of those losses was vs. Milwaukee. The Brewers scored five times off Castillo in five innings and went on to take the game 9-4. Freddy Peralta started that game for Milwaukee and will start this one as well. Peralta is having a very different type of season compared to Castillo. The team has won 9 of his 12 starts including four in a row. The last one saw Peralta take a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Opponents are hitting just .133 against Peralta for the year. This is a rubber match with each team having won once in the series. Considering who is on the mound for each team, look for the Brewers to take the series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-09-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS The Dodgers and Pirates opened up a three-game series on Tuesday. As you’d expect, the Dodgers won. They got all five of their runs in the fifth and sixth innings while the Pirates got all three of their runs in the eighth and ninth. The home team should have had one more, but Ke’Bryan Hayes made a baserunning blunder in the first inning when he forgot to touch first base after a home run. So he was called out. While it may not have been the prettiest win for the Dodgers on Tuesday, you can’t deny who the better team is in this particular matchup. We think it’s pretty crazy we can get to play the favorite at this price. Pittsburgh is 2-10 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Maybe the price is due to some uncertainty over Tony Gonsolin, who will be making his 2021 debut for the Dodgers in this one? But we have confidence in Gonsolin starting in this spot. He was 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 20 starts last year, his rookie season. The Pirates have the least amount of runs scored in baseball. Starting for them here is Tyler Anderson and he has an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-09-21 | Yankees -180 v. Twins | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees won yesterday 8-4. It’s been a rough season for Minnesota. They are last in the Central with a 24-36 record. The Yankees are 32-29, probably a disappointment to some, but they are 18-8 outside the AL East. They play in the deepest division in the American League as everyone but Baltimore is good. But they’ve really beat up on everyone else. The Yankees have played the most division games of anyone in the East. What we’re trying to say here is they are going to win again today. Gerritt Cole is starting. We can’t believe the team is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. Cole’s last start was one of his worst. Not to give him a “pass,” but it did come against Tampa Bay. In one-third of his starts, Cole has not allowed a run. In 10 of the 12, he’s allowed two or less runs. No confidence in Randy Dobnak starting opposite Cole for the Twins. Pay little attention to the ongoing “controversy” surrounding Cole and “illegal substances.” The Yankees are 27-11 all-time at Target Field. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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06-08-21 | Indians -160 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND There’s a lot of Interleague games on the board tonight, but this one features what looks to be the biggest pitching mismatch. We went against Carlos Martinez in his last start. That proved to be a wise decision as the right-hander gave up 10 runs in two-thirds of an inning. The Cardinals ended up losing 14-3 to the Dodgers in what was our MLB Game of the Week. The losing streak has now hit five after the team was swept at home by Cincinnati over the weekend. They’ve lost seven out of their last eight. There’s never an ideal time to face Shane Bieber, but this seems like a particularly bad matchup for St. Louis tonight. Bieber, last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL, has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season. Cleveland has won his last three times out and nine of the previous 11 times he’s started a game. Making things even worse for St. Louis is that there are multiple injuries in the everyday lineup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +110 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Neither Seattle nor Detroit are going to make much noise this season. But expect the Mariners to come out with a chip on their shoulder for Monday’s opener at Comerica Park. They will want to erase the memory of being swept at home by the Tigers last month as quickly as possible. Seattle is off a 14-game stretch of division games that saw them end up 9-5. They beat the Angels on Sunday, 9-5. Marco Gonzales will get the start Monday. He looked good last Tuesday, giving up just one run on two hits. It was his first start in more than a month due to a forearm strain. Even though Seattle ended up losing the game 12-6, we’d safely call it a successful return. Going back to April, Gonzales has allowed no more than two runs in four consecutive outings. That’s good. Matthew Boyd’s last start for Detroit was not good. He allowed three home runs. It was the fourth straight start he gave up at least four runs and in three of those four he allowed five. Detroit still won that last Boyd start, 10-7 over Milwaukee, so it was a much different scenario than what Gonzales experienced in his last start. This is a great price to go against the Tigers. They’ve been money line favorites only six times prior to this. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -177 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI A poor stretch has landed the Marlins in last place in their division. But almost never have we been THIS confident about taking a team that’s lost 9 of its last 10 games. This is because they are back home and facing Colorado. The Rockies are an unthinkable 4-22 in road games so far. They’ve been shut out ten times and outscored more than 2:1 (131-63). Pablo Lopez was set to start Monday for Miami, but was pushed back a day for rest purposes. This is a very good thing. Instead of facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park, Lopez now gets to pitch at home where he’s got 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Colorado is hitting .197 in road games and scoring just 2.4 runs/game. It gets worse. Antonio Senzatela starts for the Rockies tonight. His team start record away from home is 0-3 and that’s with a 7.14 ERA + 2.03 WHIP. Miami is better than its record and will win this battle of 1993 expansion teams. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels -151 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA ANGELS Coming off a 9-5 loss to Seattle on Sunday, look for the Angels to bounce back and take out the Royals on Monday. The Angels had won two in a row before losing Sunday’s game while the Royals have now lost two straight. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. Dylan Bundy is winless and has the bad ERA we talked about in the Over writeup. But One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. It’s telling how the money line has moved this morning. It’s going to take some runs for the Angels to win this game, but we think they get them and they’ll win while the game also goes OVER. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mets v. Padres -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SAN DIEGO San Diego took the first two games of the series, but had no answers for Jacob deGrom on Saturday. That 4-0 loss was fine by us as we took the Under. But the Mets obviously can’t have deGrom pitch every day and the bottom line here is they are facing one of the top teams in baseball. The Padres allow just 3.4 runs per game, #1 in the league. They allow just 2.8 runs per game at home. There’s one team that allows fewer runs per game at home and it’s the best. But this game is in San Diego. The Padres are 20-11 at home this year. The Mets are 13-18 on the road. San Diego lost its final two games in May and first two here in June. Other than that four-game losing streak, there’s been just one other time since April 22nd when they dropped back to back games. All of those losses were on the road too. Look for Chris Paddack to bounce back today after a poor start at Wrigley Field. Paddack had allowed no more than one run in four consecutive starts before giving up five to the Cubs last weekend. Marcus Stroman has been good for the Mets, but we don’t see him getting much support from one of the NL’s weakest offenses. The Padres simply have more firepower at the plate and can be trusted when not going against deGrom. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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06-05-21 | Dodgers -120 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The last two times the Dodgers have taken the field, they’ve won for us. On Wednesday, they were our *10* Game of the Week. We laid the -1.5 (run line), thinking it wouldn’t be a problem and sure enough they beat St. Louis 14-3. With them now on the road, the price was much cheaper on Friday, so we grabbed them again and this time they beat the Braves 9-5. Despite Clayton Kershaw being on the mound tonight, the price is still pretty cheap and we can’t understand why. The Dodgers have the top run differential in baseball right now at +87. They are superior to the Braves in all facets. Kershaw, who is off a rare bad outing, should definitely bounce back here. He is unbeaten in 11 career starts vs. Atlanta in the regular season, going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA. The Braves not only have a losing overall record this season, they have a losing record at home. While 3-0 in Charlie Morton’s past three starts (Morton starts tonight), none of those opponents were the Dodgers. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-04-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS The Dodgers have the edge coming into this series as they had Thursday off while Atlanta did not. The Braves played in the afternoon yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with Washington and they won 5-1. But they are still two games below .500 and not looking like the same team that was up three games to one in last year’s NLCS vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles has stumbled in a bit in recent days as well. They are just 3-5 their last eight games and in third place in the West. But just as they were last October, they are a much better ballclub than Atlanta. The Dodgers’ run differential is +83, which is the best in baseball. They were our Game of the Week on Wednesday when they crushed the Cardinals 14-3. Urias gets the start tonight and he has a 0.66 WHIP in five road starts. That’s enough to counteract that Atlanta’s Anderson has a 5-0 team start record at home. Going back to 2019, LA is 31-12 playing with a day off. Urias was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in last year’s LCS. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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06-03-21 | Mariners v. Angels -145 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Angels We just played against Seattle two days ago. It was the right play as they lost the game (to Oakland) 12-6. Then they lost again to the A’s last night, 6-0. So that’s back to back six run losses for a team that had previously won five in a row. But we told you this team has been pretty lucky so far with a 5-0 record in extra inning games. Now they are hitting the road for the first time in over a week. The road has not been kind to Seattle the previous three seasons. Their record in away games is 53-82 in that time. The Mariners have the lowest team batting average in either league (.208) and also rank last in on base percentage and OPS. Thursday’s starting pitcher (Justus Sheffield) is 0-3 on the road with a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Angels have won three of four and had Wednesday off. In three previous starts vs. Seattle, Griffin Canning has a 1.47 ERA. That’s a lot better than Sheffield’s three career starts vs. LA where his ERA is 6.59. Just not a fan of this Seattle team right now. Play on LA Angels AAA |
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06-01-21 | A's -155 v. Mariners | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The A’s lost to the Mariners 6-5 on Monday. But they should get back in the win column tonight behind Chris Bassitt. The teams went 10 innings on Memorial Day with Seattle scoring twice in the bottom of the 10th to improve to 5-0 in extras this year. They can’t keep being THAT lucky. Yesterday’s win was the 5th in a row for the Mariners, but the previous four all came at the expense of the last place Rangers. Oakland had more hits yesterday. They are 4-0 in Bassitt’s last four starts and this is the guy they want on the hill in this situation. Not only did he throw a complete game shutout last Thursday, but he has a 6-0 team start record on the road. After losing his first two starts, Oakland is 8-1 in his last nine. Seattle goes with Gonzales, who isn’t bad, but he spent the last month on the disabled list. He could very well come out rusty. Oakland was 3 for 14 when they had runners in scoring position yesterday. They should do better than that today and look for them to snap a five-game homerless streak. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON After taking a couple of unlucky extra inning losses from the Padres, Houston bounced back with a 7-4 win on Sunday. Now they’ll host Boston. The Red Sox also just got done hosting a National League team. Their game on Sunday got postponed but they did win each of the previous two days vs. Miami. But when analyzing Monday’s opener, what we see are two starting pitchers trending in opposite directions. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP his last three times out. All three outings have ended in defeat. Rodriguez has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts. Then you have Jose Urquidy for Houston. He has a 1.02 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three starts. Those three decisions have all gone the Astros’ way. We look for the trends to continue today as Houston should win a second straight at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -175 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS After sweeping the Giants last weekend and taking the opener of this series, 4-3 on Thursday, the Dodgers have all of a sudden dropped two in a row. We expect them to get back to their winning ways Sunday with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw had a rough season debut in Coors Field, but since then has an 8-2 team start record and the Dodgers have won his last four starts. He’s allowed no more than three runs in eight of those 10 starts while pitching at least six innings in seven of them. His seven wins are tied for second most in the majors. In the past, Kershaw has been excellent against the Giants, delivering a 1.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. With a 5-0 WL record, Kevin Gausman seems like a worthy adversary here. But a string of seven consecutive starts without allowing more than one run is likely to end Sunday. Only one time so far this season has LA dropped three straight at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-29-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY |
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05-29-21 | Yankees -135 v. Tigers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Tigers shocked the Yankees last night with a 3-2 win. The game went 10 innings and saw Robbie Grossman hit a walkoff 2-run HR to win the game for the home team. We don’t see the Yankees losing two in a row to this lowly team. Detroit looks to be a serious contender for “worst team in baseball” this season as they are last among American League teams in runs scored. When the Tigers traveled to NY at the end of April, they ended up losing all three games. Despite winning yesterday, they were outhit 11 to 7. The Yankees did not get a single hit with runners in scoring position (0 for 10) and left 12 men on base in the game. Giancarlo Stanton was the biggest offender as he went 0 for 5 with four strikeouts in his first game back from a quad injury. The Tigers are so inept they didn’t even notice when the Yankees' Gio Urshela headed to first after only three balls! Spencer Turbull did throw a no-hitter earlier this year for the Tigers, but overall his team start record is only 3-4. Yesterday was an aberration. The Yankees are simply a better team and Deivi Garcia shouldn’t have much trouble pitching them to victory Saturday. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-28-21 | Blue Jays -154 v. Indians | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto begins a three-game series in Cleveland Friday night. Free from their own division, the Blue Jays are hoping to turn things around at Progressive Field this weekend. While they did split Thursday’s doubleheader with the Yankees, the Jays have lost seven of their last nine games to fall to fourth in the American League East. Those nine games were against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees, all of whom are ahead of them in the standings. The Indians (27-21) also have a better record than Toronto (25-24), but they play in a much weaker Central Division. Cleveland just finished a series with Detroit where they took three of four and they are now 19-11 in division games this season. But they are 8-10 in non-division games and that’s what this is. Hyun-Jin Ryu is on a solid run of starts for Toronto as he’s made three straight quality starts where he’s given up three runs in 20 ⅔ innings. We know that Eli Morgan is a heralded pitching prospect for Cleveland, but we do not fear him in his 1st big league start Friday. It’s telling that Toronto is such a favorite. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-27-21 | Indians -172 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND An obvious pitching mismatch here with Shane Bieber of the Indians facing a Tigers team that is last in the American League in runs scored. Detroit did win last night’s game 1-0, but that was only after losing six straight to the Tribe. Going back to the beginning of 2018, Detroit is just 9-31 head to head with Cleveland. That’s not good! The Indians are an impressive 16-7 following a shutout loss the past three seasons, including 4-0 in 2021. Now they hand the ball to Bieber, who has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and he’s pitched 10 times. Cleveland is 7-3 in those 10 games, the last one being a 5-3 win against Minnesota on Saturday. In seven career starts against the Tigers, Bieber is 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA. One of those two losses actually came on Opening Day despite Bieber having 12 strikeouts and giving up only three runs over six innings. Detroit has scored just two runs in the last two games and is 7-16 in daytime starts this year. Matthew Boyd has a 3-6 career record against the Indians. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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05-26-21 | Dodgers -138 v. Astros | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD This will be just the ninth meeting between these teams since the now infamous 2017 World Series. The subsequent three Fall Classics have all involved either the Dodgers or Astros with LA losing the 2018 version, Houston losing in 2019 and then LA winning last season. Five of the last eight meetings have occurred since last summer and the Dodgers have won four of those. Though they lost that ‘17 WS, they are now considered the better team by just about everybody. Houston isn’t bad by any means and could very well end up winning the AL West again this year. But right now the Dodgers are on an 8-game win streak. Houston has lost four straight. It was 9-2 Dodgers on Tuesday even though they had just seven hits. The Astros are reeling, not just because of last night, but also they were swept in Texas over the weekend. Now they must face Trevor Bauer, whose 5-5 team start record is as misleading as it gets. Bauer has gone at least six innings in 9 of his 10 starts and he’s given up no more than two earned runs in nine straight. A 0.93 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the last three starts is as good as it gets. Bauer is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Dodgers keep rolling. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-26-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -185 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the WHITE SOX Carlos Rodon has been excellent this season for Chicago, winning five of his seven starts with a 1.27 ERA and 0.797 WHIP. That he didn’t win the last one (start) is rather criminal as he pitched six scoreless frames and had 13 strikeouts. The White Sox have actually lost the last two times Rodon has pitched, but that’s okay as they’ve also beaten St. Louis two straight in this series. The Cardinals have put up a total of 10 runs in their last five games including only four vs. the White Sox. Rodon should certainly be able to handle them as the White Sox go for the sweep Wednesday afternoon. This season has seen St. Louis go 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They’ll start John Gant today. Gant hasn’t been giving up a ton of runs, but what is curious is the fact his WHIP (1.63) is actually higher than his ERA (1.42) on the road. You almost never see that. For the year, his WHIP is 1.56, which really does not correspond with a 2.04 ERA. His last start, which came against last place Pittsburgh, was only the second time in eight tries Gant didn’t walk at least three batters. He’s walked at least five three times and has more walks than strikeouts his previous four starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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05-25-21 | Braves -105 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA In their previous series, Atlanta dropped the opener. They responded by bludgeoning the Pirates over the next three games, outscoring them 33-3. We had the Braves in two of those three wins, including 20-1 on Friday. As they move to face Boston on Tuesday, we like this series opener to go their way. It’s a bit telling that they’d be favored on the road against the team that leads the AL East. But let’s not forget the Braves are the ones favored to win the NL East this year. No team in baseball has hit more home runs this year than has Atlanta and 15 of the 78 came in the last series. The Red Sox are no slouches at the plate either, but be wary of Garrett Richards and his 7.10 ERA at Fenway. Richards also has a 2.131 WHIP in those three home starts. His work has improved in May, but Richards has also still walked seven batters in his last two starts. We’ll side with Charlie Morton, who is 6-1 in his career against Boston. The Braves are liable to snap a six-game losing streak in Interleague Play. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-25-21 | Reds v. Nationals -178 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -178 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON We like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to beat the Reds today. Scherzer has dominated Cincinnati the last five times he’s faced them, going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA. Just as impressive has been his recent form as it’s a 1.56 ERA and 0.87 WHIP from his last three starts. Washington is 4-0 when Scherzer starts at home and a 0.68 WHIP from the pitcher is obviously a big reason for that. Cincinnati hasn’t gotten much good pitching from anybody this year and the last time they sent out Tyler Mahle, he gave up seven runs in two innings. Mahle has faced the Nationals twice before and his ERA in those two starts is 12.15. Not only is it a significant pitching mismatch for the home team Tuesday, but they are also coming off a three-game sweep of Baltimore over the weekend. Cincinnati is 1-6 its last seven and giving up 7.1 runs per game in that stretch. They’ve been outscored 50-25 in those seven games. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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05-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland may have missed out on its attempt to sweep the Angels Sunday, but their lead in the AL West has grown to 1.5 games thanks to the Astros getting swept over the weekend. The A’s have a very favorable matchup to start the week as they face Seattle, losers of six in a row. The Mariners had it handed to them over the weekend in San Diego where they were outscored 31-7 in the three games. Just as embarrassing was being swept at home by Detroit in the previous series. One of those three games saw them get no-hit. The Mariners are batting just .199 AS A TEAM this season. They are quite bad and on the road they’re getting outscored by almost two full runs per contest. Frankie Montas has allowed three runs or less each of his previous five starts for Oakland, so he’s likely to pitch well tonight. Yusei Kikuchi is working on a string of four straight quality starts for Seattle, but how much support will he get here? The answer to that question is “not much.” It’s been nine days since the M’s scored more than four runs in a game. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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05-23-21 | Pirates v. Braves -181 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA Since taking the series opener on Thursday, things have gone south fast for the Pirates. It started with what was a memorable play for us - the Braves on Friday - which ended up as a 20-1 win! You obviously can’t expect them all to be that easy, but the Braves won again Saturday, this time 6-1. Might as well take them again Sunday as the Pirates are very bad and showing little signs of “life.” Their run differential (-72) is easily baseball’s worst and they’ve dropped five of the six games. While the singular 20-1 loss is largely responsible for them having the worst run differential in the sport, note that no other National League team is worse than -40. Only two are -30 or worse. The Braves are starting to make a move over in the East where they are easily their division’s top offensive team. Expect them to continue flourishing at the plate today against Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who has allowed at least one HR in five straight starts. Brubaker was tagged for five runs total in his last start. Max Fried starts for Atlanta and he has looked solid lately, giving up just one run in each of his last three trips to the mound. No brainer here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-22-21 | Astros -176 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -176 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON After sweeping a four-game series from the Rangers last weekend, Houston lost to them (in extra innings) Friday. The 10th inning started well enough for the Astros as they put a run on the board via a throwing error. But it wasn’t to be as the Rangers’ Adolis Garcia hit a 3-run walkoff in the bottom half of the inning. With that loss “out of the way” (can’t beat Texas every game), we expect the Astros to do quite well for themselves Saturday. They’ve got Lance McCullers going and they have won each of the last four times he’s pitched. McCullers has delivered five quality starts in a row, lasting a total of 33 innings while giving up only six runs (1.64 ERA). Texas does not exactly have a high-powered lineup and opponents are batting just .173 against McCullers this season, the second lowest average allowed by an AL pitcher. In 10 career starts vs. the Rangers, there have been three times where McCullers didn’t allow any runs. The Rangers send out Jordan Lyles, who has been better of late but still has an 8.47 ERA here at home. Texas is a horrible 8-22 vs. righties. Houston is clearly the cream of the crop in the AL West and will prove that again this afternoon. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-21-21 | Pirates v. Braves -176 | Top | 1-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on ATLANTA The Braves suffered a surprising 6-4 loss to the Pirates last night. They were big favorites on the money line and at home. Pittsburgh came in as losers of three straight and owns the worst run differential in the National League. The game went 10 innings and the fact Atlanta could only score one run after the second inning is a bit of a concern. But, at the end of the day, the Braves are simply the better team here and we cannot see them losing two straight to such lowly opposition. The Pirates have put together back to back wins just one time in May. This is going to be a bad ball club this year and everyone knows it. Atlanta expects to win the NL East, which is looking very wide open in 2021. Coming into this series, the Braves had won 10 of 13 vs. Pittsburgh including the last six at home. Starter Ian Anderson has 47 strikeouts in 45 innings this season. Four of his last five starts have been quality, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three or less runs. He allowed one run on two hits last time out. Tyler Anderson starts for the visiting team and while he’s having a fairly successful season, he did allow two home runs in his last start. Pittsburgh came into the series averaging 3.1 runs/game on the road. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-20-21 | Rays -150 v. Orioles | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Tampa Bay is looking to sweep Baltimore and we think they will. The Rays have won six games in a row, the latest coming in 9-7 fashion last night at Camden Yards. That was the fifth time during the win streak that the Rays put up at least seven runs. The Orioles have had some real difficulty winning at home so far. Their record at Camden Yards this season is 6-17. That’s the worst home record in all of baseball. It also just so happens that Tampa Bay’s 14-7 road record is baseball’s best. The Orioles have dropped 9 of 11 overall. Not having to face John Means, Baltimore’s only decent starter, has been a big break for the Rays in this series. Today they go up against Dean Kremer. Still winless after seven starts, Kremer has a 7.79 ERA at home. Rich Hill starts the series finale for the Rays and he’s got a 1.27 ERA in 13 previous appearances against Baltimore. Hill has allowed exactly zero runs in his previous three starts and just six hits in 15 ⅔ innings. Everything about this seems like a colossal mismatch. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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05-19-21 | Brewers -167 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We’ve been waiting patiently for the next Corbin Burnes start and the day has finally come. Burnes has been outstanding on the mound so far with a 1.57 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. He has 58 strikeouts and just one walk. But somehow his team start record is only 2-4. His last start was pretty emblematic of how the season has gone. Burnes allowed one run and five hits over five innings. But the Brewers lost 2-0. It was the third time in Burnes’ six starts that they failed to score a single run. They’ve scored just 14 total runs in the six starts with 13 of them coming in the two wins. It was another 2-0 loss for Milwaukee last night, this one to the Royals, who recently lost 11 in a row. Kansas City is now 3-13 its last 16 games and has been held to three runs or less 10 times in that run. Brad Keller will start today’s game for the Royals. He has had a much different season than Burnes. You’re looking at a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in eight starts. The four starts at home have produced an even higher ERA and WHIP. All things considered, it’s pretty shocking that Keller’s TSR is 4-4. Burnes is clearly overdue for a win here and we don’t see Milwaukee losing two straight to the Royals. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-18-21 | Yankees -154 v. Rangers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Yankees were dealt a surprising 5-2 defeat by the Rangers Monday. It was their second loss in a row, but just the third in the past nine games. For the Rangers, the win snapped a six-game losing streak and the most shocking part about it is that they were able to get to Gerrit Cole, one of the best starters in all of baseball. They scored four times off Cole and stole home. We expect the Yankees to turn the tables Tuesday night in Texas behind Jameson Taillon. While Taillon isn’t the same caliber pitcher as Cole, the Rangers aren’t a team that can be counted on to produce at the plate in back to back games. Seven straight games they’ve been held to fewer than 10 hits and they are batting just .207 during that stretch with 3.1 runs/game. Mike Foltynewicz will be the starter here for the Rangers. He has pitched decently over his last four trips to the mound, but only has one win this year in eight tries. Most of the starts have been in Arlington as well. It’s been over a month since the Yankees dropped three in a row. Don’t see it happening here. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-17-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -165 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle should not have much difficulty beating who we feel is the worst team in baseball. Detroit has been outscored by 69 runs its 40 games this year and they’ve been particularly hideous on the road, scoring just 3.4 runs/game while giving up an average of 5.8. The weekend saw the Tigers lose two of three at home vs. the Cubs. Seattle took the final three games of a four-game series with Cleveland. They held the Indians to 12 runs for the series. Detroit is last in the American League in runs scored, so look for a solid outing Monday from the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi, who over his last three starts has delivered a 2.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Those three starts have seen Kikuchi allow only six runs and 12 hits in 20 ⅓ innings. He had 11 strikeouts in his most recent start, which was against the Dodgers. Yes, Casey Mize is also coming off three straight quality starts for the Tigers. But getting to play against the Tigers at this price seems almost too good to be true. They are a really bad team and just 7-20 their last 27 games in Seattle. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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05-16-21 | Royals v. White Sox -149 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -130 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO While they had far fewer hits than the Cardinals last night, the Padres took the opener of this series by a score of 5-4. Starter Joe Musgrove got his first win since throwing his no-hitter on April 9th and Manny Machado had a pair of RBIs. Also key was the Padres drawing 12 walks, thus nullifying St. Louis’ 10-4 edge in hits. Last night was the first time these teams had met since last season’s playoffs when San Diego won two games to one in the Wild Card round. The Cardinals haven’t been scoring a ton as of late. They’ve finished with four runs or less in 7 of the past 10 games. Facing MLB’s top pitching staff - in terms of runs allowed per game - that doesn’t figure to change tonight. San Diego is giving up only 3.3 runs/game this season. Chris Paddack will start Saturday’s game after not giving up any runs in his previous start, an 11-1 win over Colorado. Prior to that, Paddack had some misleading stat lines with an unusual number of unearned runs. Adam Wainwright, who was on the losing end of Game 2 in last year’s Wild Card Round, starts here for the Cardinals. Wainwright nearly went the distance in his last start, but he has a 6.51 ERA on the road. San Diego’s lineup is dealing with COVID issues right now, but last night showed they still have enough to beat St. Louis. The Padres are 35-17 L52 as a home favorite. St. Louis is 2-7 their last nine games at San Diego. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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05-14-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 9* on YANKEES The Yankees saw their four-game win streak come to an end yesterday. They lost in resounding fashion to the Rays, 9-1. Offense continues to be a bit of a problem for NY as they are averaging less than three runs over the last seven games with a .194 team batting average to boot. But this weekend series in Baltimore seems like a prime opportunity for the Yankees offense to turn it around. In their prior visit to Camden Yards, they could only manage a split of four games. But the Orioles are just 3-11 in home games outside that series. The Yankees are 28-8 their last 36 games vs. the Orioles. Facing Dean Kremer looks to be the key for the visitors tonight. Kremer has a 9.49 ERA and 1.70 WHIP when starting at home this year. That’s why we think the Yankees offense turns it around here. Corey Kluber should be able to handle the rest as he has a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP his last three starts, all of which have resulted in Yankees victories. The Orioles have scored four runs or less in six of their last eight contests. You’ve got two struggling lineups, but one (New York) has far more talent and is going up against the inferior starting pitcher. It’s really that simple. Plus, the Yankees are 26-12 L38 as a road favorite of -175 or more. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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05-12-21 | Orioles v. Mets -172 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 7* on NY METS The Mets drew first blood with the Orioles, winning the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday. While it’s true the Mets had a slight advantage as Monday was an off-day for them (while Baltimore was hosting Boston), let’s be honest here: the Mets are just plain better. Now 17-13 overall and 10-4 at home, they lead the NL East. Baltimore is 16-20 overall and last in the AL East, which is where you are likely to find them the remainder of the 2021 season. The Orioles’ 11-7 road record is certainly surprising, but also won’t be maintained. The Mets are giving up just 2.1 runs per game at home. Wednesday’s starter Taijuan Walker has been great so far with a 5-1 TSR and the team is 3-0 his last three with Walker posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Walker allowed just one hit in seven innings the last time he started, which was at St. Louis. His last home start saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Mets’ old teammate Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore today. He has a 4.11 and 1.43 WHIP on the road, so it seems a little lucky that the Orioles are 3-0 in those three starts. The Orioles don’t score all that much to begin with (3.9 runs/game) and don’t get to use the designated hitter in this series. Play on NY METS AAA |
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05-10-21 | Rangers v. Giants -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO Yesterday was not indicative of the kind of season it's been for the Giants. They lost 11-1 to the Padres, but still lead both San Diego and the Dodgers in the National League West. They are 20-14 overall and +6.5 units on the year. Only Texas and Seattle (both surprises) have been better to bet on 2021. The Giants will host the Rangers for two games starting Monday, so we could have a new “most profitable team” by Wednesday. Though Texas is 5-1 its last six games, we like San Francisco big here. The Giants are 10-2 after a loss and giving up only 3.1 runs at home. The Rangers lose the DH in this series. We’ve got two 3-0 starting pitchers set to face off, Kyle Gibson for Texas and Alex Wood for San Fran. Wood has the better ERA and WHIP and both times the Rangers have lost with Gibson (5-2 TSR) starting it has been on the road. The Giants have won both of Wood’s home starts (his overall TSR is 3-1). Texas is 4-17 its last 21 interleague games as an underdog. The Giants have won five of the last six series openers. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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05-09-21 | Nationals v. Yankees -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the YANKEES The Yankees bounced back from Friday’s ugly 11-4 loss to win 4-3 in extras Saturday. Yesterday’s game went 11 innings with both teams scoring in the 10th and then Gleyber Torres provided his second huge RBI single to win the game in the 11th. (Torres also tied the game in the bottom of the ninth). We like the Yankees to win Sunday’s series finale. If they can overcome 14 strikeouts from Max Scherzer, which they did yesterday, then surely they can overcome Joe Ross. Ross’ season has mostly been good for the Nationals, but he did have one disastrous start where he allowed 10 runs and four homers. The Yankees have won three straight Domingo German starts with him providing a 2.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Going into yesterday’s game, visiting teams were hitting below .200 here at Yankee Stadium. Washington is not off to a great start this year. They are last in the NL East. The Yankees have overcome their own slow start to win six of eight and 11 of their last 16 games. A very good home team to begin with, New York is on a 42-14 run when hosting teams with losing records. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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05-08-21 | Phillies v. Braves -168 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The series opener did not go well for the Braves. The Phillies jumped all over them in the first inning, taking a quick 6-0 lead and ended up winning 12-2. In the first home game with 100% capacity, Atlanta’s fans saw their starter Charlie Morton only able to get two outs. It was Philadelphia’s highest scoring game of 2021. The Phillies have won five in a row, but the Braves also swept their last series, at Washington, and we like them to bounce back on Saturday. Ian Anderson has a 3-0 team start record at home and should give the home team a much better start than they got from Morton last night. Vince Velasquez will be the starter for the road team. The Phillies are 5-2 vs. the Braves this year, but Velasquez is 1-6 in his career against them. The Phillies are also 1-6 the last seven times they’ve been off a game where they allowed two runs or less. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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05-08-21 | Twins -174 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA We took the Over 9.0 in yesterday’s Twins-Tigers game and the result there was a win as the teams combined for 10 runs. As expected, most of the runs came from the Minnesota side as they won 7-3. It was a rainy night in Detroit, but the Twins hit three home runs as they snapped a three-game losing streak. It’s been a disappointing 12-19 start in the Twin Cities, but the team does a +2 run differential. This looks like the series where they’ll get on track. In addition to scoring the fewest runs in all of baseball, the Tigers have also given up the most runs. Minnesota will have Berrios on the hill this afternoon and he has a 1.01 WHIP in his six previous starts. He’s been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 1.62 and a WHIP of 0.66. Remember that in his first start, he threw six no-hit innings (before being pulled) with 12 strikeouts. Yesterday’s win means the Twins are 23-10 L33 vs. Detroit and 3-1 this season. The Tigers have Urena starting Saturday and while he’s doing the best he can (four straight quality starts), the result is a 1-5 team start record. The Tigers are 1-8 their last nine games. They are just a very bad baseball team. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-07-21 | Dodgers -156 v. Angels | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers look to shake off their recent slump and won’t have to travel far to do so as they take on their cross-town rivals. The Angels are slumping even worse right now as they’ve lost five in a row (Dodgers have lost three in a row) and were just swept at home by Tampa Bay. No team is giving up more runs per game this year than are the Angels. Did we mention the Dodgers get to use the designated hitter this weekend. We realize that the Dodgers’ have been slumping at the plate, but they still come in averaging almost five runs per contest. They were 6-0 against the Angels last year. Getting to face Griffin Canning seems like a favorable matchup as he has a 6.00 ERA in four starts. Julio Urias has been good for the Dodgers so far and has been downright dominant on the road where he’s 3-0 and has a 0.48 WHIP. Urias has given up no more than three runs in all but one of his starts and had 10 strikeouts in a 16-4 win against Milwaukee Sunday. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -117 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee is looking to avoid the sweep today as they have lost three straight one run games here in Philadelphia. Losing three in a row is always going to be frustrating, but when you outhit the opponent in all three games and still go 0-3, that’s REALLY frustrating. Such is the case here for the Brewers, who have 25 hits to the Phillies’ 18 in the three games. They actually doubled them up in hits Wednesday, 8-4, but one of Philly’s hits was a grand slam and that held up in a 5-4 triumph. Milwaukee has now lost four in a row overall, but we like who they are sending out today as Brandon Woodruff has a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in six starts. He’s 2-0 while the team is 5-1 in those six starts. The last five have all been quality and seen Woodruff allow only three total runs in 31 innings of work. Four times he’s allowed three hits or less while going six or more innings. This is a red hot pitcher we’re getting at a really short price. Even better is that Woodruff is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in three previous turns against the Phillies. We look for Milwaukee to improve upon its awful 7 of 33 hitting with runners in scoring position this series. Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies and only has a 2-4 TSR and there have been some starts where he’s given up plenty of hits. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES Turns out that the sky was NOT falling in the Bronx as the Yankees have turned things around by winning six of their last seven. They beat Houston 7-3 last night for their fourth straight win and are now just 2.5 back of rival Boston for first place in the AL East. Oddsmakers rightly still consider the Yankees to be the favorite to win the division. Emotions were definitely high at Yankee Stadium for yesterday’s series opener, which was the first meeting between these teams since the 2019 ALCS. You’ll recall that Houston won that series, but later it came out they were cheating. It may take some further chicanery to get by lefty Jordan Montgomery and New York tonight. Montgomery has not allowed more than six hits in a start this season. In the last seven games, Yankees pitching is allowing only 1.7 runs and a .177 batting average. The bullpen has been excellent. Houston’s Luis Garcia has zero career wins. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -143 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Miami might be in last place in the National League East, but they are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. They’ll look to make it two in a row over Arizona tonight. The Diamondbacks have been a little more competitive than expected through 29 games, but are still a real long-shot to compete in the NL West where you’ve got three strong teams. A six-run eighth proved to be the difference for the Marlins last night in a 9-3 win. They shouldn’t need nearly that many runs today as Pablo Lopez gets the start. Lopez might still be in search of his first win, but he’s pitched remarkably well in five of his six outings. The exception was when he allowed six runs against Atlanta on April 13th. Other than that, he has never given up more than two runs in any start. Three times, he has given up zero earned runs. Yet, Miami has actually lost all three of those games! Look for Lopez to get the elusive win Wednesday as Arizona starter Weaver is not in Lopez’s class. Weaver’s last three starts have produced a 7.62 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He is just 2-11 since the beginning of last season. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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05-04-21 | Dodgers -188 v. Cubs | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -188 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS After getting rained out Monday, the Dodgers and Cubs will play two on Tuesday. The first game of the doubleheader sees Clayton Kershaw going for the Dodgers and we’ve got no problem taking him as he’s 4-1 in his last five starts. He’s allowed just four total runs in the five starts and three times he didn’t give up any! That’s despite facing the likes of San Diego (twice) and Cincinnati (MLB’s highest scoring team), not to mention also having to once pitch in an AL park (Oakland) where the DH was in play. Kershaw matches up well against a Cubs lineup that is hitting just .199 in games vs. left-handed starters. At home, the Cubs are batting only .219 for the year, so the fact they are somehow averaging 5.3 runs per game here probably isn’t going to last. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been good at all for Chicago thus far. You’re looking at a 7.54 ERA and 1.764 WHIP from him so far this season and it’s getting uglier with him allowing seven runs in two of the last three starts. Look for the Dodgers to easily take Game 1 behind Kershaw. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays +112 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Oakland held on for a 7-5 win over Baltimore on Sunday, but that was their only win of the series and they’re just 3-5 since a 13-game win streak was snapped. Remember that they also started the season 1-7. So that 13-game win streak serves as a bit of a “mirage'' in our estimation. Toronto has won seven of nine and just swept the Braves over the weekend. Only four teams are currently allowing a fewer number of runs per game than the Blue Jays are. That seems pertinent with Steven Matz ready to get the nod Monday. Matz has a 4-1 team start record in 2021 and is 3-0 on the road thanks to a 2.60 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. His last start was his only bad one, but we think he’ll shake it off against a lineup that is hitting only .217 this year. These teams did not play last season, but the Jays won all six meetings in 2019. A’s starter Frankie Montas has really struggled so far, especially in his three starts at home where he has a 9.23 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-02-21 | Royals v. Twins -185 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA Just when it seemed like the Twins were set to turn things around, they went out and “laid an egg” yesterday against the Royals. After dominant wins both Wednesday (10-2 at Cleveland) and Friday (9-1 here vs. Kansas City), they lost 11-3 on Saturday. That was our only loss on a 4-1 card. We like the Twins to bounce back though. Jose Berrios may have an 0-3 team start record in his last three trips to the mound, but he also has a 0.98 WHIP this year. Berrios hasn’t gotten much run support lately, but should today as the Minnesota offense will get its “licks in” against embattled Royals righty Brad Keller, who has really been struggling with a 9.00 ERA and 2.28 WHIP. Keller did turn in his first quality start of 2021 on Monday, but that was against the Tigers, who have the worst offense in baseball. In three of his first four starts, Keller allowed four or more runs while failing to get out of the fourth inning. The Royals are only hitting .198 on the road, so an offensive effort similar to yesterday seems highly unlikely. They are 47-76 on the road since 2019, including 4-12 in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -169 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX Chicago lost the opener 5-3 to Cleveland, but should gain a measure of revenge this afternoon. It literally starts with Lance Lynn, who has allowed just four runs in 19 ⅔ innings this season and two of them were unearned. Lynn is coming off a two-week stint on the DL but should be ready to go here. He has some personal revenge to exact as he lost his last start to the Indians, even though he only gave up two runs. Lynn has 21 strikeouts and no walks in his previous two starts. Both of those were at home and one was a complete game. The White Sox are giving up 2.8 runs per game at home, which is tops in the American League. Cleveland was lucky to have Shane Bieber starting Friday’s game, but today it’s Triston McKenzie, whose three outings have produced a 4.85 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He made it only four innings when he faced the White Sox on 4/12 and the Indians lost that game 4-3. Lynn has a 1.41 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 32 previous innings of work versus Cleveland. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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05-01-21 | Royals v. Twins -130 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA It’s been a frustrating start to the season in Minnesota, but the Twins look to be getting their act together. After finishing the Cleveland series with a 10-2 win, they opened this three-game set by drubbing Kansas City 9-1. Saturday’s starting pitching matchup may not look to be in their favor, but the Twins hold a 20-10 record against the Royals since 2019 and that includes 12-3 when they are the home team. KC’s 15-9 start seems to be a bit of a mirage. They are 6-1 in one-run games and hitting .198 on the road. They are 46-76 in road games the last three seasons. So while Danny Duffy leads all of MLB with 0.39 ERA, he’s going to have to carry his offense across the finish line today. We don’t think that happens as the Twins have hit eight homers in the past two games alone. Only once in the last six games have the Royals scored more than four times. The Twins go with Matt Shoemaker as their starter today and while it’s been a rough start to 2021 for him, we see him getting the job done against a lineup that just isn’t very good. Shoemaker has had two good starts. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-30-21 | Angels -142 v. Mariners | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 8* on the ANGELS The Angels look to win for a fourth time in five games as they open a weekend series with Seattle. The Mariners had lost four in a row prior to a 1-0 win against Houston yesterday. In those five games, the Mariners have scored a grand total of 11 runs. Five of them came in one game. They don’t figure to score many tonight vs. Andrew Heaney, who has given up all of three (runs) in his last three starts. In fact, he’s allowed just seven hits. Chris Flexen goes for the M’s on Friday. He’s had some good starts this year, but was lucky to only lose 1-0 against Houston two starts ago. He allowed 10 hits in that game. Flexen bounced back with a strong effort vs. Boston, but that was on the road. With the Mariners only hitting .191 at home, Flexen figures to not get much run support. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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04-30-21 | Mets -145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS The Mets just lost two low scoring games in Boston, 1-0 and 2-1, to fall to one game below .500. But they should rebound here with Marcus Stroman pitching. They’ve won three of the four times Stroman has pitched so far and considering the right hander has a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, that’s no accident. While off his worst outing of 2021, Stroman turned in three consecutive quality starts to open the season. The Mets are 10-4 the last three seasons after being shut out, including 2-0 this year. The Phillies, unlike the Mets, played yesterday and they lost 4-3 to the Cardinals. That game went to the 10th inning, so it was extra disappointing, especially since it ended on a wild pitch. Speaking of disappointing, Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson remains winless and has a 7.71 ERA his past three turns. He got hammered for six runs on Sunday. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-29-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -180 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 7* on NY YANKEES After losing the first game of the series, the Yankees have battled back to take the last two and can now get within a game of .500 by beating the Orioles again today. The last two days have seen Yankee hitters combine for six home runs in 5-1 and 7-0 victories. They are tied for the most home runs hit (30) among American League teams, so the long ball is definitely not a problem. It was just a matter of time before this high-price lineup got going. New York also got a solid outing last night from Domingo German as he went seven innings. We look for another solid effort on the mound today as Jordan Montgomery is set to start. He has a 3-1 team start record and a 1.05 WHIP. Baltimore batters are scuffling right now with only five runs scored in the entire series. In eight career starts against the Orioles, Montgomery holds a 3-1 record and 2.57 ERA. He’ll be opposed here by Jorge Lopez, who hasn’t looked very good in 2021. He’s yet to pitch more than five innings in any start and has already allowed six homers. In four previous starts vs. New York, Lopez’s ERA is 6.62. Baltimore isn’t going to be a good team this season, while the Yankees expect to contend for another AL East crown. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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04-28-21 | Nationals v. Blue Jays -155 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto will send the unbeaten Steven Matz out to the mound Wednesday in the hopes of pulling off a quick two game sweep of Washington. Matz is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. As a former member of the Mets, he has not had much success in the past against the Nationals. But he’s with a new team now and the Nats just aren’t very good anymore. They’ve been outscored by 28 runs in 20 games. That’s the worst run differential in the National League and second worst (Detroit) in all of baseball. Vladimir Guerrero’s grand slam was the difference in yesterday’s 9-5 Blue Jays victory. Considering they beat Max Scherzer, beating Erick Fedde should not be all that hard. Fedde has yet to go more than five innings this year. Toronto is averaging 6.1 runs per game at home. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -185 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have dropped seven of nine, including three straight. They are 0-2 against the Reds and trying to avoid a sweep this afternoon. It’s their first three game losing streak of the season. Before anyone declares that “the sky is falling,” we will remind you of the fact that Dodger Blue still has the best run differential in all of MLB. They started 13-3 and the defending World Series Champs are considered favorites to repeat for a season. They are loaded with talent. Though the Reds also got off to a hot start this year, they’d dropped seven in a row coming into this series. The difference for us in this game lies in the starting pitching matchup where Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers against Sonny Gray for the Reds. Kershaw had a rough first start (in Colorado), but has since settled down with four consecutive quality efforts. He’s allowed a total of four runs in 26 innings. Gray has only started two games for the Reds in 2021 and he has a 7.87 ERA and 2.13 WHIP after getting tagged for five runs in 3 ⅔ innings at St. Louis last week. The last time the Dodgers lost three in a row was August of 2019. We don’t see this losing streak continuing. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-27-21 | Padres -148 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego probably needed Monday off as they pulled out a thrilling come from behind 8-7 victory at Dodger Stadium Sunday night. They trailed 7-1 going into the seventh, but rallied for two runs in each of the next three innings to tie it up, then won it in the 11th. The Padres are now 4-3 vs. the Dodgers in 2021, something they ought to be very proud of. They are also 3-1 against Arizona, who they’ll play each of the next two days. The Diamondbacks were San Diego’s first opponent this season and it was almost a sweep. The Padres lost the final game 3-1 after outscoring the D’backs 19-9 in the first three. Arizona had its own memorable Sunday as they shut the Braves out twice and allowed only one hit over the course of a doubleheader. While only 3-10 the previous two seasons at Chase Field, the Padres turn to Chris Paddack, who has a 1.95 ERA in six starts vs. Arizona. Diamondbacks pitching won’t be as good tonight as it was Sunday because Merrill Kelly is on the mound and his ERA is 7.71 through four starts. Two of those starts have seen Kelly allow six or more runs. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros -175 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has had Seattle’s number for most of the last three seasons, especially when they get the Mariners at home. Last night was no exception as they prevailed by a score of 5-2. The loss dropped the M’s record here in Houston to 1-17 since 2019. They are 2-2 vs. the Astros so far this season, but both wins came at home. Beating Seattle again probably won’t require a ton of offense by the ‘Stros. They have Cristian Javier starting tonight and he’s been sensational thus far with a 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Most importantly, the team is 3-0 in Javier starts. All three wins have come by four runs or more and Javier didn’t allow any runs in either of the last two outings. Left-hander Marco Gonzales will start for the Mariners tonight. He has a 6.05 ERA in his four starts this year and a 5.83 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Houston, while only 11-11, is actually tied for the best run differential in the American League right now. They have scored 21 more runs than they have allowed. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-26-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -170 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE We don’t think Milwaukee, who is 13-8 to start the year, will have any trouble beating the 9-12 Marlins on Monday. The Brewers have been getting great pitching so far and no one on the staff has been any better than today’s starter Corbin Burnes. It is a crime that Burnes’ team start record is 2-2 this year. He has a 0.37 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and zero walks! Over his last three starts, Burnes hasn’t given up any runs as he’s working on a 18+ inning scoreless streak. The only run he’s given up this season came on a solo home run, in his first start of the season against Minnesota. The Brewers have won five of six following Sunday’s 6-0 beatdown of the Cubs. Miami has lost five of seven while being shut out twice. So they can’t be looking forward to this matchup. They’ll send out Trevor Rogers, who has been great in his own right, but he’s no Burnes. Not only have the Marlins been blanked twice in the last seven games, they’ve also been held to three runs or less five times. Should be easy pickings for Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-25-21 | Nationals v. Mets -149 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS After picking up a deserved win for Jacob deGrom on Friday, the Mets were promptly beaten 7-1 on Saturday. We expect them to take this rubber match though. A .500 record is good enough for first place in the NL East right now and that’s where the Mets are at (8-8). The Nationals aren’t far behind (8-10), but even after yesterday they still have the worst run differential in the National League at -20. Yesterday’s game was pretty much decided early as Washington scored in each of the first five innings while the Mets threw away some opportunities, leaving two runners on base in both the first and fourth innings. New York had the third highest OBP (.330) in the NL going into yesterday, so that’s not a problem. All 10 of Washington’s hits Saturday were singles. Pat Corbin is off a strong effort for the Nats, which was shocking considering he allowed 16 runs in 6 ⅓ his first two starts. He has a 4.25 ERA in 17 career games vs. the Mets. Taijuan Walker goes for the Mets today, looking to make it four straight starts allowing 2 ER or less to start the year. Walker was one out away from getting through four innings without giving up a hit in his most recent start. Things fell apart, but we think the eventual statline was misleading. Play on NY METS AAA |
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04-24-21 | Marlins v. Giants -143 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants are 2 for 2 in this series with the Marlins as they continue to get exemplary starting pitching, particularly at home. Friday starter Alex Wood allowed a leadoff home run, but then retired 21 of the next 22 hitters he faced and didn’t give up another hit. That effort came on the heels of a 3-0 shutout on Thursday. The team is now 7-1 at home where they are allowing only 2.0 runs/game. Four of SF’s last six wins have come in shutout form, two of those against Miami. It’s Kevin Gausman’s turn Saturday and he comes in with a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his four starts and the last one was six shutout innings at Philadelphia. The Giants are allowing the fewest number of runs/game in all of baseball right now. Miami’s Pablo Lopez, winless this year, has made just one start on the road and it went poorly with him allowing six runs on nine hits. Lopez did pitch well at home vs. SF last weekend, but still lost the game 1-0. He doesn’t figure to pitch as well here while the Giants pitching just isn’t giving up much of anything right now. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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04-24-21 | Phillies -178 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA After losing eight of nine games, Colorado (7-12) has all of a sudden won three in a row. All of their wins this season have been at home. The latest was last night, in come from behind fashion, as they walked off against the Phillies 5-4. Philadelphia is now 9-10 on the young season and has lost three of its last four games. But we look for them to turn the tide Saturday. It starts with Aaron Nola, who they hand the baseball to. Nola tossed a complete game in his last start, a 2-0 win over St. Louis. He’s the best starter the Phillies have right now, so it’s really important that the team wins here. So far, they are 3-1 in Nola starts. Nola has allowed just one home run thus far and has 28 strikeouts vs. just three walks. We know the Phillies have struggled on the road this year and had just one win at Coors Field in 2018/19 (did not visit last season). But they were in position to win last night’s game, which they led 4-2, and should score plenty of runs tonight against Antonio Senzatela. This is the first time that Colorado has won three in a row in 2021 and the win streak is unlikely to last. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-23-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers and Padres are renewing their rivalry this weekend and things got off to a good start for the road team with a 3-2 win last night. But the Dodgers remain the class of baseball and aren’t about to lose two straight. While they have lost three of four, at no point this season has LA been beaten by the same opponent two days in a row. In fact, they’ve yet to lose two games in any series! They won two of the three games at San Diego last weekend. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight and he’s been dominant over his last three starts, turning in a 0.47 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. Last Saturday he kept San Diego scoreless with six innings of two hit ball to improve to 22-7 against them all-time. That .759 win percentage is Kershaw’s best against any team in his Hall of Fame career. In 41 starts vs. the Padres, his ERA is 1.99. Once again, he faces Yu Darvish. Darvish was also great last Saturday in giving up one run in seven innings. But it’s just tough to envision San Diego winning twice in a row here as the Dodgers 89-34 at home the last three seasons and are allowing only 2.1 runs/game here this season. Very cheap price on the Dodgers at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -152 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Twins have dropped four in a row coming into this series with the Pirates. The most recent loss was quite painful as they seemed poised to end Oakland’s 10-game win streak on Wednesday. But they made back to back errors, leading to a 13-12 loss in 10 innings. The A’s didn’t even have a hit as they scored three unearned runs in the final frame. That loss came after getting shutout in two straight games. Now Minnesota looks to “dust itself off” here against a Pittsburgh team that’s rebuilding in 2021. The Pirates have won 8 of 12, but do not expect that to last. This is a team that will struggle moving forward. They played yesterday in Detroit (won 4-2) while the Twins were off. JT Brubaker has had three solid starts for the Bucs, but again, that’s something that will probably not continue. JA Happ has pitched well enough for the Twins that he probably deserved a win in his first two starts. Pittsburgh is 5-22 its last 27 interleague games and 0-7 its last seven when facing a left-handed starter. Happ is a southpaw. The Twins are 12-5 their last 17 home games vs. the National League. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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04-21-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -166 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington pulled out a 3-2 win last night, scoring the game winning run in the bottom of the eighth on a bases loaded walk. For 5 ½ innings, no runs were scored by either team. It was a lot different than Monday’s opener when St. Louis won 12-5. Tonight the Nationals have what appears to be a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup with Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer has been outstanding in each of his previous two trips to the mound, allowing one run in six innings and no runs in seven innings. He’s allowed just five hits in those 13 innings and had 10 strikeouts last Friday vs. Arizona. The fact Scherzer has yet to earn a victory this season seems rather criminal. Can’t say the same for Carlos Martinez though as Wednesday’s starter for St. Louis is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA. The Cardinals have lost those three games by a combined score of 30-8. It’s been nearly three years since Martinez last won a start as he was a reliever in 2019, then went 0-3 as a starter (with a 9.90 ERA) last season. He’s 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA all-time vs. the Nationals. Scherzer vs. Martinez looks like a lopsided matchup to us and we’ll play accordingly. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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04-21-21 | Astros -144 v. Rockies | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -144 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON The Astros’ nine game win streak over the Rockies, which stretched back to 2018, came to an end Tuesday with a 6-2 loss. The key for Colorado was five RBI’s from CJ Cron as well as seven strong innings by starter Jon Gray. Still winless on the road (0-6), the Rockies are now 5-6 at Coors Field this season. The weather was cold last night and is expected to be so again this afternoon. But we look for Houston to come out a bit hotter. They’ll send Jose Urquidy to the mound. While he hasn’t won any of his previous three starts this season, Urquidy has a 2.87 ERA in three prior Interleague starts. He allowed only two runs on five hits in his last start, which came at Seattle. The Rockies go with Austin Gomber, who has pitched well both of his last two starts, only to not come away with a win either time. Colorado obviously scores more at home, but they are just 1-10 vs. right-handed starters this year and 2-6 in day games. Considering Houston averages almost six full runs per game on the road, they should have a good afternoon at the plate. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays +102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO Boston is off to a great start so far at 11-6. Only the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by a greater margin. Yesterday morning, the Red Sox jumped all over the White Sox early en route to an 11-4 win. We had the Over, which was a winner by the second inning when the Red Sox were already up 8-1. But today is a day we expect the Red Sox to struggle as they have to face Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Blue Jays. Monday was an off-day for Toronto, much needed after they lost three of four in Kansas City. Boston not getting any time off between series has them at a disadvantage and Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in a start this year. He’s given up only five runs in three starts and has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. We think it’s just a matter of time before the Toronto lineup wakes up and they’ve had success in the past against Eduardo Rodriguez, who gets the start today for Boston. Rodriguez has a 4.64 ERA in 14 previous tries against the Blue Jays. Boston is just 7-20 its last 27 home games vs. lefty starters. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-18-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -185 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -185 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on WASHINGTON The Nationals were embarrassed in the first game of this series, losing 11-6. But they’ve subsequently won 1-0 and 6-2 against the Diamondbacks the past two days. We like them to make it three in a row behind Stephen Strasburg on Sunday. Strasburg has pitched twice in 2021, once at home and once on the road. The one at home went much better as he held the Braves scoreless over six innings and allowed only one hit. We’ll just forget what happened in St. Louis earlier this week. Arizona isn’t very good as they’ve got just one series win so far. They’ve lost four of five and Madison Bumgarner no longer inspires much confidence when he’s on the mound. Both of Bumgarner’s starts have not gone well. He allowed five runs to Colorado and while that could be chalked up to “Coors Field,” he then allowed six runs at home to Oakland. Washington’s lineup produced 14 hits on Saturday. There have been 19 times the last three seasons that Arizona has been a road underdog of +175 to +250. They’ve lost 15 of those, including a 1-4 record so far this year. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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04-17-21 | Orioles v. Rangers -131 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS The Rangers were beaten 5-2 by the Orioles last night, but we look for them to even this series up at a game apiece Saturday night. There’s a huge edge in starting pitching tonight as Dane Dunning goes against Dean Kremer. Dunning, the Rangers starter, has looked great thus far. He’s allowed just one run in two starts (it came on a home run) and only five hits as well. He was a hard luck loser the last time out as Texas fell 1-0 to Tampa Bay. But Dunning can expect his offense to put some runs on the board here against Baltimore’s Kremer, who has only managed to make it three innings in each of his two starts to this point. He’s given up seven runs. A pitcher with a 0.78 WHIP facing a pitcher with a 2.33 WHIP sounds like a real mismatch to us. Baltimore is 5-2 on the road so far, not something you’d expect from a team that’s expected to be really bad this season. So fade them accordingly moving forward, including tonight as we don’t see them as likely to win two in a row here. Especially with the starting pitching matchup so obviously not in their favor. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's -175 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland ended Detroit’s three-game win streak last night, taking the series opener by a score of 8-4. Tigers’ pitching made it pretty easy on the A’s as they issued 12 walks in the game, two coming when the bases were loaded in the sixth inning. Wouldn’t you know that control issues have been a problem for Friday’s starter Jose Urena as well? The Tigers’ righty has walked nine batters in two starts which have lasted only 7 ⅔ innings. The team lost both of those games, rather handily. First it was 15-6 to the Twins, then 5-2 to the Indians. Detroit isn’t going to be very good this year, so the fact they swept Houston was a surprise. But this series looks like it will go differently. Oakland is on a five-game win streak and sends Frankie Montas to the bump tonight. After being rocked by the Dodgers in his first start, Montas came back and delivered six solid innings in a win over Houston in his last start. The A’s won that game 7-3 and the only run allowed by Montas was a solo homer. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Big time revenge here for the Phillies as they got swept in yesterday’s doubleheader. After losing the opener 4-3 in extra innings, they were blanked 4-0 in the nightcap. That Game 1 loss particularly stung as the Phillies had struck first in extras to take a 3-2 lead. But it was not to be and they now are one controversial call away from being 0-5 their previous five games. The Mets sending David Peterson to the mound should give Philly hope tonight. Peterson really struggled in his first start. He gave up six runs and did we mention that was against the Phillies? It was. Zach Wheeler gets the start for Philly and he will be hoping this third start goes more like his first than the second. That first time out saw Wheeler go seven innings, strike out 10 batters and allow only one hit. That was vs. Atlanta. When he faced the Braves a second time, it didn’t go as well. The Phillies were 6-3 going into yesterday’s twinbill and we don’t see them getting beat for a third time in two days by a Mets team that struggles when off a win. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -154 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE This is the rubber match between NL Central foes as the winner will take the series. The Cubs snapped a three-game losing skid yesterday with a narrow 3-2 victory. Milwaukee was held to just three hits, but it wasn’t until the 8th inning - when Wilson Contreras homered - that the Cubs were able to take the lead. Despite the much needed victory, they shouldn’t be rejoicing too much in the Windy City. It was the seventh consecutive game where the Cubs were held to four runs or less. Now they must face Corbin Burnes, who has been stellar through two starts for the Brewers. Burnes has allowed just one run and two hits thus far, striking out 20 batters and walking none. That’s in 12 ⅓ IP. The problem is Milwaukee has somehow found a way to lose BOTH games. But if Burnes keeps pitching like that, you’ve gotta figure he’ll break through into the win column. The Cubs are still only 2-6 vs. righties so far, even after the win yesterday. Jake Arrieta does have a 2-0 team start record, but his WHIP is 1.417, a far cry from the other-worldly 0.162 posted by Burnes. This is all about Burnes being due for a win. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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04-13-21 | Tigers v. Astros -177 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -177 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on HOUSTON Houston losing two nights in a row to Detroit does not seem likely. Nor does the Astros losing a fourth straight home game. So we will take Houston here. Though they only put up two runs Monday night, both of which came on solo homers, the Astros had plenty of other opportunities to score. The problem was that they were 0 for 11 when they had runners in scoring position! Normally, it’s Detroit that struggles to put the bat on the ball. As a team, they are batting just .194 in the early going. Tigers starter Matthew Boyd has looked good in two starts so far, but he has a 5.91 ERA in four career starts against the Astros. Jake Odorizzi goes for Houston in what will be his first start of 2021. He has had success in the past vs. Detroit with a 6-1 record and 3.09 ERA in 12 starts. We expect Houston’s offense to wake up tonight and them to move to 37-15 their last 52 home games when facing a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox -153 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHI WHITE SOX The White Sox, who have high hopes for 2021, enter this game with a 3-4 record. They went down in defeat Wednesday, losing to the Seattle Mariners by a score of 8-4. But they did win the first two games of that particular series. This is their home opener and it comes against a Royals team they absolutely dominated last year. Chicago was 9-1 in head to head meetings with KC in 2020 with four of those wins coming by four runs or greater. The Royals’ bats came out swinging in 2021, delivering a total of 25 runs the first two games. But they’ve been quiet since with just eight runs scored in the last three games. Like Chicago, Wednesday brought an “L” for Kansas City as they fell 4-2 to Cleveland. Today’s starter is Brad Keller and when you look at how he pitched on Opening Day, it’s tough to make a case for KC today. The Rangers tagged Keller for six runs in 1 ⅓ innings. The offense bailed him out, but we don’t think they’ll do so here facing Lance Lynn, who allowed only two unearned runs in his first start. He also had six strikeouts vs. zero walks. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TORONTO Toronto goes for its second series win of the young season Wednesday afternoon. After taking two of three from the Yankees, the Blue Jays won the series opener 6-2 here in Arlington. But they lost yesterday by a score of 7-4. It was the most runs allowed by Toronto pitching in a game so far in 2021. Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has never faced Texas, should get them back on track this afternoon. Ryu allowed just two runs and four hits in 5 ⅓ in his first start. While he did not factor into the decision, the Jays won that game 3-2 in 10 innings. This is a team that expects to contend for a playoff berth and possibly win the division. The Rangers, on the other hand, are probably going to finish last over in the AL West. It was an ugly first outing for today’s starter Kyle Gibson. He was handed a 5-0 lead on Opening Day in Kansas City, but immediately gave it back as he gave up five runs after four hits and three walks. He retired just one batter. How can you not want to play against that? The Rangers have yet to have back to back big games at the plate this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds -143 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This isa 10* on CINCINNATI To put it mildly, the Pirates are not going to be good this year. So why not take advantage of some “early season pricing” and back the Reds here? Cincy opened with St. Louis. After losing the season opener, they bounced back to win two straight and it was 12-1 on Sunday. Run scoring was not an issue in that first series as the Reds put 27 on the board in the three games. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff performed adequately in its first series, but the team still dropped two of three to the Cubs. That probably speaks to how poor the offense is going to be in 2021. Making matters more depressing is that Ke’Bryan Hayes, thought to be the next star of the franchise, is already on the 10-day DL. JT Brubaker starts today for the Bucs. He gave up four home runs in Spring Training, not good considering the Reds hit six HRs in the St. Louis series. Jose De Leon gets the nod for the home team. He actually hasn’t started a MLB game in almost five years (he’s been a reliever), but if there was ever a time to make your return to a starting role it would be against the Pirates, who have scored only nine runs so far. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -166 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -166 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Since falling behind 5-0 in the first inning on Opening Day, the Royals have looked absolutely dominant, particularly at the plate. They’ve scored a total of 25 runs in two games against the Rangers and are now 2-0. They go for the sweep on Sunday with Brady Singer on the mound. Singer finished last season strong, winning three of his last four starts. That carried over into the Spring where he was 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts. The last one saw him give up only two hits to Cleveland in eight innings and only one of those two hits made it out of the infield. Though Texas had a big day at the plate Opening Day, their bats made far less noise yesterday with four runs on six hits. Rangers’ starter Jordan Lyles has to contend with a Royals lineup that has 28 hits in the two games. While KC has been scoring in clusters, they should be able to consistently produce here vs. Lyles, who went 1-6 last season with a 1.56 WHIP. Lyles will be working in “tandem” with either Dane Dunning or Taylor Hearn. This speaks to the lack of depth in the Rangers’ rotation right now, which has been hit hard already and figures to have a rough 2021. Going back to the end of last season, the Royals are 9-0 L9 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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04-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs -164 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs dropped their season opener here at Wrigley Field on Thursday, losing 5-3. That’s an embarrassing loss considering how bad the Pirates are projected to be in 2021. Friday was an off day and we anticipate the Cubs will come out swinging on Saturday. Literally. Seven Pirates pitchers combined to hold them to two hits on Opening Day. But the Bucs aren’t going to have many games like that this year. They finished 19-41 last season, which would be an 111-loss pace for a 162 game season. They have the lowest projected win total in MLB. They also have the lowest payroll in the National League. Tyler Anderson will start for them today. He comes over from San Francisco and is one of the few free agents the team actually signed. It’s likely he won’t be asked to go long, but we don’t think a bullpen that looks shaky on paper will be as effective as it was Thursday. For the Cubs, starter Jake Arrieta is in his second tour of duty. He’s always enjoyed facing Pittsburgh in the past (12-6 record, 2.93 ERA in 23 career starts) and should do well here. This is all about fading the worst team in baseball. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -128 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The Astros gave us a gift on Opening Day as they scored five times across the final two frames to send the game Over. We had the Over, which certainly wasn’t looking good when the game was 1-0 after five innings. Today we look for the A’s to settle the score. The A’s have payback on the mind not just from last night, but for the ALDS in October when they were eliminated in a 3-1 series by the Astros. But the regular season last year really saw the A’s have Houston’s number as they took 7 of 10 head to head meetings and the three losses were all seven-inning games. Can’t see Oakland dropping two straight at home to open the season. Houston’s starter for today is Cristian Javier, who the A’s beat twice last year in the regular season. Javier’s ERA in those two starts was 7.88 Jesus Luzardo goes to the mound for the home team and we like him, especially for his 2.87 ERA against Houston in three previous regular season turns. Oakland is 44-18 off a loss. Houston is 3-13 after scoring 5 or more runs last game. PLAY ON OAKLAND AAA |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers -155 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers were one out away from taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series and making this an elimination game for the Rays. By now, we all know that is not what happened. A dramatic 2-out single in the bottom of the ninth by Brett Phillips, which led to the Dodgers making TWO errors on the play, resulted in an 8-7 win for Tampa Bay and now we’re knotted at two games apiece. We expect Los Angeles to bounce back though as they send out Game 1 winner Clayton Kershaw to the mound tonight. Kershaw was masterful in Game 1, allowing just one run on two hits over six innings. He now has a 2.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season and the Dodgers have won 11 of his 14 starts. Kershaw will again be opposed by Tyler Glasnow in Game 5, same as he was in Game 1. Glasnow was left in too long by Rays manager Kevin Cash in Game 1, which led to much deliberation, as he threw more pitches than any Rays starter has in any game this season. Glasnow has not made it a full six innings in any start this year and walked six batters in Game 1. How much mileage Cash can get out of his bullpen tonight, based on usage last night, is up for debate. What we do know is the Rays offense remains entirely too dependent on the home run ball. The Dodgers are 17-5 off a loss this year. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA Pretty much everything we said in our Game 1 analysis rang true last night as the Dodgers opened the series with a 8-3 win. The Rays have gotten shockingly little offense in the postseason, outside of when they are hitting home runs. As mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, almost 72% of their runs scored in the playoffs have come via the long ball. While the Dodgers homered twice in Game 1, they also showed they can string runs together without hitting out of the park. Scoring eight times across three innings was more than enough in Game 1. Though Tony Gonsolin will start Game 2 for LA, this likely turns into a “bullpen game” for them. Though Gonsolin wasn’t very good against Atlanta in the NLCS, he does have a 2.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP for the season. Blake Snell goes for Tampa Bay tonight. He isn’t likely to go as long as Tyler Glasnow did last night for Kevin Cash. An issue for Snell this postseason has been control of his fastball, which has led to 10 walks. An issue here is that the Dodgers have a .990 OPS in the playoffs vs. left-handers and they’ve hit a lot of homers. The Dodgers, who have won 42 of their last 55 games and are 17-4 vs. the AL this season, are simply the better team here. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA We were behind the Dodgers in their NLCS comeback, taking them in both Games 6 & 7. While rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Braves certainly had to take a lot out of the club, let’s not discount what the Rays just went through. They led the ALCS 3-0 before Houston stormed back to force a Game 7. So we’ve got a World Series where both participants have to feel like they’ve been through a war. Clayton Kershaw, who did NOT get called into duty in Game 7 vs. Atlanta, now gets the Game 1 start for LA. You can certainly question Kershaw’s postseason resume as it is nowhere near as impressive as his regular season accolades. But it’s hard to question a pitcher that has a 0.87 WHIP across his 13 starts this year. Plus, Tampa Bay really struggles to score when they are not hitting home runs. Almost 72% of the Rays’ runs scored during the playoffs have come via the long ball. Kershaw has allowed just 8 HR’s going back to August. Three of those were in his L2 starts but he was also facing the #3 and #2 scoring offenses in baseball. The home run ball likely will be a deciding factor in this series as the Dodgers just set a record by hitting 16 in one series. They hit the most homers in the regular season. Game 1 starter for Tampa Bay, Tyler Glasnow has allowed six HRs in 19 ⅓ postseason innings. Uh oh. Another edge for the Dodgers is they have been playing here in Arlington while the ALCS was in San Diego. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOS ANGELES We rolled with the Dodgers in Game 6 and that’s who we are going with again in Game 7. LA was able to jump on Atlanta starter Max Fried early yesterday, scoring three runs in the first inning and that held up in a 3-1 win. They’ll face Ian Anderson in Game 7. While Anderson hasn’t allowed a run this postseason, he was a bit wild back in Game 2 when he walked five hitters. Remember that the Dodgers just handed Fried his first losing decision of the year. It was only the second time this season that the Braves lost with Fried pitching. So Anderson should not be viewed as infallible. The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season and by that measure, we’re getting them at a fairly discounted price here in Game 7. They are 40-13 L53 games. They have yet to make a decision on who will start tonight, but you know it’s going to be a combined effort on the mound with Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and maybe even Clayton Kershaw all making an appearance. The Braves have scored three runs or less in three of the last four games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers season appeared to be hanging by a thread in Game 5 as they found themselves down 2-0 early. But then they struck for three runs in both the sixth and seventh innings, a Will Smith HR being the deciding blast. So here we are in Game 6 Saturday with LA needing to win to force a deciding Game 7. We like their chances to do so. It’s a rematch of the pitching matchup we had in Game 1 with Max Fried taking on Walker Buehler. Fried is 7-0 in 14 starts with the team winning 13 times. He did not factor into the Game 1 decision as remember that was a 1-1 game going into the ninth. Buehler has a 9-2 TSR and allowed just three hits in five innings back in Game 1. To us, this play simply boils down to who is the more complete team. That would be the Dodgers, who were so dominant in the regular season and are now 39-13 L52 overall. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers -220 v. Braves | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -220 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS This is a “whole new series” now. The Dodgers scored a MLB postseason record 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and rolled to a 15-3 win. They’ve now scored 22 times on a Braves staff that had only allowed five runs total in its first six postseason games (four shutouts). For Game 4, Los Angeles gets a shot at another shaky looking starter for the Braves, that being Bryse Wilson. Meanwhile, they (LA) now get to turn to Clayton Kershaw after he was scratched from his previously scheduled Game 2 start. The Dodgers’ bats have clearly “woken up” and Kershaw will take care of the Braves hitters in this one. Something that must be pointed out is the fact that while Atlanta has gone 19-4 in the 23 starts made by Fried and Anderson this season, they are just 23-22 otherwise. Wilson only started two regular season games. Kershaw is now pitching on extra rest after looking good in both previous starts this postseason. We think the moneyline for Game 4 “says it all” as the Dodgers are a lock to even this series up at two games apiece. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |