Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-17 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Mike Clevinger and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much largers ones in this particular matchup. Wade Miley: He’s 8-11 with a 4.91 ERA. Miley has been decent of late, posting a 37/19 K/W over his last 38.2 innings of work. He’s been serviceable this season, but note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road by going just 5-6 with a 5.19 ERA. Clevinger: He’s 8-5 with a 3.50 ERA. Clevinger put together a great August, posting a 3.86 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.0 K/9 over five appearances. The bottom line: Note that the Orioles are just 33-38 (-4.5 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Cleveland is 34-25 (+1.1 units) against teams with winning records. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -155 | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 32 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. Arizona has been on a big surge of late and is on the cusp of sweeping this series with rival LA. The Dodgers have been scuffling of late, but we think the bleeding stops tonight. Taijuan Walker: He’s 8-7 with a 3.42 ERA. Walker comes in off a gem against the Rockies on Friday, striking out ten over five shutout frames. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Walker this year, as he’s been solid across the board. We simply feel he’s in the wrong spot at the wrong time. Kenta Maeda: He’s 12-6 with a 4.19 ERA. Maeda will be out to redeem himself after allowing seven runs off eight hits over three innings in a loss to these very Diamondbacks on Thursday. We’re not reading too much into one poor outing though, as note previous to that Maeda had posted a 2.78 ERA over as stretch spanning ten starts (is 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA at home as well.) The bottom line: Desperation breeds motivation and success leads to complacency. The table is set for a big bounce back here, lay the price on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-06-17 | Giants v. Rockies -137 | 11-3 | Loss | -137 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. We think the home side will build off its 9-6 win last night. Johnny Cueto: He’s 6-7 with a 4.54 ERA. Cueto gave up two runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against St. Louis on Friday. After an extended stint on the DL, Cueto was able to stick around for 80 pitches in his first start back. Despite the decent outing, note that he’s still just 4-5 with a 4.78 ERA on the road this year. Kyle Freeland: He’s 11-9 with a 3.89 ERA. Freeland most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks with four strikeouts over four innings in a loss to Arizona on Friday. Note that despite a 6-6 record at home, Freeland owns an impressive 3.48 ERA at Coors Field this season. The bottom line: Note that San Francisco is just 30-27 (-20.1 units) against the division, while Colorado is 30-24 (+6.5 units) against divisional foes. All things considered, we feel this is a great price, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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09-06-17 | Cubs -135 v. Pirates | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. We like Chicago to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat and for Jose Quintana to build off his latest impressive effort. Quintana: He’s 9-11 with a 4.49 ERA. Quintana has been inconsistent for his new team, but he enters off a gem against these very same pirates on Wednesday, giving up three runs while striking out nine over seven innings in his team’s eventual 17-3 blowout victory. Gerritt Cole: He’s 11-9 with a 4.11 ERA. Cole has been scuffling for a while and was just rocked for five runs off six hits with three walks over six innings in a fortunate no-decision against Cincinnati on Friday. Note that he’s just 2-5 with a 4.48 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Note that Chicago is 21-10 (+6.4 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Pittsburgh is just 3-5 (-1.4 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range this year. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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09-05-17 | Astros -160 v. Mariners | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should be even larger ones in this particular matchup. Verlander: He’s 10-8 with a 3.82 ERA. Verlander makes his debut for his new team. Since the All-Star break he’s posted a 2.41 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and has 78 K’s over 67.1 innings of work. Ariel Miranda: He’s 8-6 with a 4.85 ERA. Miranda most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Wednesday. He entered that one with an uninspiring 5.79 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over eight second half outings and he once again struggled in this one. The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starters points to another long night for Miranda. We’re backing Verlander in his first start for his new club, as the veteran finds a way to get the job done. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-04-17 | Astros -155 v. Mariners | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Houston Astros. Dallas Keuchel hasn’t looked quite the same since coming back from the DL, posting a 5.48 ERA in that span. Despite that, we still think that the hard-throwing southpaw has the advantage here and we like the hard-hitting Astros to back him up. Keuchel: He’s 11-3 with a 2.91 ERA. As mentioned above, Keuchel has been struggling a bit of late. Regardless of that though, the left-hander is still 6-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the road and 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA in all “night” contests. Erasmo Ramirez: He’s 5-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Ramirez gave up two runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday. Ramirez has looked better of late but still owns a 4.99 ERA in all “night” games this year. The bottom line: Note that Houston is 18-5 (+10.7 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range this year, while Seattle is just 1-2 (-1.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The moral of the story for us in this one is that we’re not reading too much into either starters recent form. Look for Keuchel to bounce back big in this one, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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09-04-17 | Cardinals -152 v. Padres | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Carlos Martinez and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Martinez: He’s 10-10 with a 3.52 ERA. Martinez comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Wednesday, allowing six runs (just three earned) while striking out seven over six innigns of work. Despite the sub-par outing, Martinez has now given up three earned runs or fewer in each of his past six starts. To go along with his solid 3.52 ERA he also owns a sharp 1.21 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 (owns a respectable 3.49 ERA in all “day” games.) Luis Perdomo: He’s 7-8 with a 4.69 ERA. Perdomo comes in off a decent outing against the Giants on Tuesday, giving up two runs for the victory. Perdomo has looked btter of late, but still owns a poor 4.69 ERA and 1.9 K/BB ratio (also has a poor 4.80 ERA at home this year.) The bottom line: We expect Martinez to outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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09-04-17 | Angels -143 v. A's | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. Parker Bridwell got crushed by Oakland just last week, but for the most part the rookie has dominated this year. The same can’t be said for A’s veteran Chris Smith, who up until this year has been a lifer in the minor leagues. Bridwell: He’s 7-2 with a 3.52 ERA. Bridwell was shelled for seven runs over three innings to the A’s on Wednesday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort. Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for the rookie though, who is already 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in all “day” games this season. Smith: He’s 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA. The 36-year old was 0-3 with an 8.49 ERA in August spanning five outings. He’s been better at home than on the road this yera, although that’s not saying much with a 5.01 ERA. The bottom line: Note that LA is 14-11 (+2.4 units) in its last 25 against clubs with losing records, while Oakland is just 7-11 (-1.8 units) in its last 18 against teams with losing records. We like Bridwell to bounce back. Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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09-04-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -127 | 7-4 | Loss | -127 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. We think the Yanks have a letdown here after their big 9-2 Sunday night win at home over the rival Red Sox. Jordan Montgomery: He’s 7-7 with a 4.15 ERA. He’s been recalled from Triple-A to make this start and he’ll be on a pitch count (note that he owns a poor 1-5, 5.12 ERA in all “day” games this year.) Dylan Bundy: He’s 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA. Bundy comes in off a gem against the Mariners, throwing a complete game one hitter, issuing two walks and striking out 12. He’s now reached double-digit K’s in three of his last four starts. Since the All-Star break Bundy has posted a 3.04 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 53:10 K:BB over 47.1 frames of work. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one. The natural letdown spot for New York, combined with a clear mismatch on the mound makes the ORIOLES well worth the price of admission in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-02-17 | Braves v. Cubs -231 | 12-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this particular case, we absolutely believe that Jon Lester and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be even larger favorites in this one. Lucas Sims: He’s 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA. Sims most recently gave up four runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Monday. Sims has been decent in his limited time, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA on the road. Lester: He’s 8-7 with a 4.37 ERA. Lester returns to the rotation, out since August 17th. He threw a 50-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday and has been cleared to go. In six starts prior to landing on the DL he posted a 3.26 ERA and elite 0.93 WHIP. The bottom line: Lester has the track record and pedigree to finish up strong. Sims draws an extremely tough matchup on the road against a team desperate for as many wins as possible. We’re laying the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | Braves v. Cubs -220 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Kyle Hendricks and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Sean Newcomb: He’s 2-7 with a 4.36 ERA. Newcomb gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Saturday. Admittedly starts like that have been few and far between for the rookie this year, but note that to go along with his pedestrian 4.36 ERA, he also owns an unimpressive 1.55 WHIP (is just 1-5 with a 4.92 ERA in all “night” contests as well.) Hendricks: He’s 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA. Hendricks gave up two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Over five starts in August he’d give up just nine total runs. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in all “night” games thus far. The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Newcomb has another long night ahead of him. Lay the price, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-30-17 | Dodgers -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Dodgers. A couple of capable hurlers collide in this one. Arizona held on for a 7-6 win yesterday, but we look for the hard-hitting visiting side to bounce back this evening. Hyun-Jin Ryu: He’s 5-6 with a 3.34 ERA. Ryu gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings in a win over the Pirates on Thursday. Ryu’s strikeout count was down, but he allowed just three baserunners over the final four innings and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in nine straight starts (owns a respectable 3.00 ERA on the road this year thus far.) Robbie Ray: He’s 10-5 with a 3.06 ERA. Ray gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out nine over five innings in a win over the Mets on Thursday. It was Ray’s first start back after sitting for a month on the concussion protocol and he looked sharp. He’s been solid overall this year, but note that he’s just 4-4 with a pedestrian 4.87 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that LA is 36-20 (+7.4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Arizona is 24-27 (-1.2 units) against clubs with winning records. We look for the DODGERS to respond off yesterday’s loss. AAA Sports |
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08-30-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -210 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Stephen Strasburg and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Adam Conley: He’s 6-5 with a 5.17 ERA. Conley most recently was rocked for five runs off six hits while stirking out four over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Padres on Friday. He’s now given up at least three runs in four of his five starts this month giving him a 5.28 ERA for August. Strasburg: He’s 10-4 with a 3.10 ERA. Strasburg went six scoreless against the Astros on Thursday, giving up three hits but posting seven K’s in the unfortunate no-decision. Since returning from the DL, he now has just two walks compared to 15 K’s spanning 12 frames of work. The bottom line: Note that Miami is just 20-27 (-3.7 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Washington is 22-13 (+8.3 units) agianst clubs with winning records. We don’t anticipate Strasburg coming in unfocused whatsoever. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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08-29-17 | White Sox v. Twins -210 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Minnesota Twins. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Twins’ ace Ervin Santana could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup. James Shields: He’s 2-4 with a 5.63 ERA. Shields gave up three runs off three hits and two walks over six innings in a no-decision against Minnesota on Wednesday. He’s looked better of late but is still 0-1 with a 5.30 ERA on the road and he also owns a poor 1.9 HR/9 over his last four trips to the hill. Santana: He’s 13-7 with a 3.24 ERA. Santana gave up two runs (only one earned) off three hits with one walk while striking out eight in an unfortunate no-decision to the White Sox throwing opposite Shields last week. Santana has regressed slightly after a blistering start to the year, but he still owns a sharp 1.24 WHIP and 48:15 K:BB over his last eight combined starts since the All-Star break. The bottom line: Note that Chicago is just 36-55 (-2.3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Minnesota is 49-44 (+8.2 units) against right-handed starters. We think Santana comes in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence, play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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08-28-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -161 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -161 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). We think that Antonio Senzatela and the hard hitting home side could/should easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 7-11 with a 6.11 ERA. Zimmermann most recently was rocked for seven runs off nine hits with zero K’s over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Wednesday. He’s now been shelled for exactly seven runs in each of his last three trips to the hill (note that Zimmermann is just 2-6 witha 5.75 ERA on the road.) Senzatela: He’s 10-4 with a 4.52 ERA. Senzatela gave up two runs off nine hits with one walk over five innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Wednesday. Note that he’s been decent at Coors Field this year, going 8-2 with a respectable 4.67 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Detroit is just 25-40 (-11.3 units) this year on the road, while Colorado is 38-25 (+7.8 units) at home. We think Zimmermann continues to struggle and gets destroyed in the thin air of Colorado. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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08-27-17 | Rockies -121 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Colorado Rockies. Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that Mike Foltynewicz and the home side have another loss in store for them after falling 7-6 to the Rockies last night. Jon Gray: He’s 5-3 with a 4.54 ERA. He’s surprisingly been better at home than on the road this season, but regardless he does come in off a fine effort against KC on Tuesday, giving up three runs (just two earned) while striking out six over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate setback. Over his last seven starts Gray has posted a solid 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and elite 41:9 K:BB ratio spanning 43.1 innings of work. Foltynewicz: He’s 10-9 with a 4.95 ERA. Foltynewicz comes in off three straight disasters, most recently getting shelled for six runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Monday. The right-hander has now been rocked for 24 runs over his last 11.2 innings of work. The bottom line: There’s no question that Gray comes into this one in much better shape form wise. Also note that Colorado is 30-17 (+13 units) in all “day” games, while Atlanta is just 17-22 (-1.1 units) in all day contests. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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08-25-17 | Rays v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -152 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the St. Louis Cardinals. We think that home field advantage will be the difference maker for Michael Wacha today. Jake Odorizzi: He’s 6-7 with a 4.74 ERA. Odorizzi most recently allowed seven runs off eight hits and five walks while striking out two over 3.2 innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday. Odorizzi has now dropped three straight decisions (note that he’s just 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA in all “night” games.) Wacha: He’s 9-6 with a 4.08 ERA. Wacha comes in off an outing to forget as well, giving up five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday. Wacha has scuffled over the last month but does have the track record and pedigree to stop the slide and get back on track (note that he’s been at this best at home this year as well by going 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA.) The bottom line: Note that Tampa is just 29-33 on the road, while St. Louis is 36-28 at home. We think the Rays stumble after their 2-0 win at home yesterday. All things considered, a very fair price, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-24-17 | Cubs -170 v. Reds | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -170 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Jake Arrieta and the hard-hitting defending champs could/should easily be much larger ones. Arrieta: He’s 13-8 with a 3.63 ERA. Arrieta gave up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Toronto on Friday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts (is 9-6 with a very respectable 3.86 ERA on the road thus far.) Sal Romano: He’s 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA. Romano actually comes in off a decent outing against the Braves on Friday, giving up one run over seven innings of work. It was just his second quality start out of his last nine trips to the hill though and note that he’s been particularly horrible at home with a 1-3, 6.63 ERA record. The bottom line: Note that Chicago is 21-8 (+9.7 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is just 5-12 (-5 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-24-17 | Dodgers -156 v. Pirates | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Dodgers. We like the hard-hitting Dodgers to bounce back after yesterday’s 1-0 defeat. Hyun-Jin Ryu: He’s 4-6 with a 3.45 ERA. Ryu comes in off a gem against the Tigers on Sturday, going five scoreless to go along with four K’s in an unfortunate no-decision. It was Ryu’s third scoreless effort out of his last four trips to the hill (owns a very respectable 3.19 ERA on the road thus far.) Chad Kuhl: He’s 6-8 with a 4.52 ERA. Kuhl gave up one run off three hits while striking out six over five innings in a win over St. Louis on Saturday. Kuhl has looked a bit better of late, but is still just 4-4 with a poor 4.88 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that LA is 25-10 (+9.8 units) this year following a loss, while Pittsburgh is just 16-17 (-1.2 units) against southpaws. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-23-17 | A's v. Orioles -175 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Baltimore Orioles. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat. Daniel Gossett: He’s 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA. Sean Manaea was originally planned to start this one, but Gossett has been re-called from Triple-A to make this start. He’s struggled in the limited time he’s seen in the big leagues this year, owning a 4.83 ERA on the road thus far. Dylan Bundy: He’s 12-8 with a 4.17 ERA. Bundy has turned the corner once again, having won three straight decisions while posting a 2.14 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 25 K’s over 21 innings of work. The bottom line: Gossett is a complete unknown at this point, while Bundy’s consistency continues to grow each time he takes the mound right now. We’re banking on that trend continuing here, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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08-22-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -190 | 12-4 | Loss | -190 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Lance Lynn and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Clayton Richard: He’s 6-12 with a 4.84 ERA. Richard comes in off his best start of the year, going a complete game shutout against the Phillies on Wednesday. His last shutout came five years ago. For the most part Richard has been a disappointment this year and we think immediate regression is in store following the “gem” (note that he’s just 1-5 with a 4.70 ERA on the road.) Lynn: He’s 10-6 with a 3.05 ERA. Lynn gave up two runs (just one earned) over six innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Lynn has now given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last nine starts and has been particularly effective in this spot all year long, going 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA at home and 6-3 with a 2.63 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: St. Louis is 63-61 overall and 35-27 (+2.1 units) at home. San Diego is 55-69 overall and 22-39 (-5.4 units) on the road. The Cardinals are also 34-26 (+3.1 units) against teams with losing records this year, while the Padres are just 19-37 (-9.2 units) against clubs with winning records. Lay the price with confidence, play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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08-22-17 | Yankees -163 v. Tigers | Top | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Yankees. We absolutely feel that Mashario Tanaka and the hard-hitting visiting side are absolutely worth the price of admission in this spot. Tanaka: He’s 8-10 with a 4.92 ERA. Tanaka hit the ten-day DL with shoulder inflammation but threw a bullpen session and has been cleared to go. In five games post All Star break the Japanese hurler posted a respectable 3.13 ERA and struck out 38 over 31.2 innings of work. Matt Boyd: He’s 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA. Boyd pitched 1.1 inning of relief in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday, allowing one run and two walks. Previous to that Boyd surrendered nine runs over two starts. Unfortunately for Boyd a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year (also only 2-5 with a 6.34 ERA in all “night” contests.) The bottom line: Note that New York is 47-37 (+1.6 units) this year in all “night” games, while Detroit is a poor 31-50 (-18.6 units) in all night contests. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in our professional opinion. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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08-20-17 | Phillies v. Giants -213 | 5-2 | Loss | -213 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 5* ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner could/should easily be a much larger one. Ben Lively: He’s 1-4 with a 3.80 ERA. Lively is being recalled from Triple-A to make this start. To go along with his respectable 3.80 ERA, Lively owns an unimpressive 17:13 K:BB over 42.2 innings of work (is 0-3 with a 4.21 ERA on the road.) Bumgarner: He’s 3-5 with a 2.99 ERA. Bumgarner gave up four runs over six innings while striking out four in a 9-4 victory over Miami on Tuesday. It wasn’t the southpaws greatest outing, but he had a big early lead and was able to sit back and hit the strike zone hard, which led to a couple of more runs added to his stat line. Note that he owns a 2.57 ERA in all “day” contests this year. The bottom line: Philadelphia is stumbling towards the finish line, just 4-13 (-8.2 units) in August, while San Francisco is 10-7 (+3.8 units) in August. Looks like a great spot for the home side to finish up this series strong. Lay the price with confidence, play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -158 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Mets. We think that the home side will build off yestreday’s convincing 8-1 win yesterday. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe the Jacob DeGrom could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup. Adam Conley: He’s 5-5 with a 5.32 ERA. Conley most recently gave up three runs off six hits and three walks with no K’s in a victory over the soft-hitting Giants on Monday. In his previous start Conley had been crushed for five runs off 11 hits and three walks over five innings. DeGrom: He’s 13-6 with a 3.35 ERA. DeGrom gave up five run off nine hits and two walks over 7.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Tuesday. Over six previous outings DeGrom had allowed three earned runs or fewer and note that he still owns an elite 53:10 K:BB over his last seven trips to the hill (is 6-3 with a 2.49 ERA at home.) The bottom line: Note that Miami is just 8-14 (-2.9 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while New York is 18-12 (+1.2 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. We love DeGrom to bounce back after his latest dud and we look for Conley’s inconsistencies to once again be a major issue for the young hurler. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Twins | 0-5 | Loss | -138 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ultimately we feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Zack Greinke: He’s 14-5 with a 3.01 ERA. Greinke struck out nine over 6.2 scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over the Astros on Monday (he’s 13-4 with a 2.55 ERA in all “night” games.) Jose Berrios: He’s 10-5 with a 4.27 ERA. Berrios’ last start was pushed back because of a rain out, but he’s struggled of late by giving up 11 earned runs over his last 8.1 innings of work (is 3-5 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” contests.) The bottom line: We like Greinke to outduel his volatile counterpart. Great price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-17 | Mariners v. Rays -125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Tampa Bay Rays. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-1 defeat. Ariel Miranda: He’s 7-6 with a 4.75 ERA. Miranda’s recent struggles continued with a loss to the Angels on Sunday, allowing four runs off four hits over 4.2 innings. He would go on to issue six walks. That’s now seven straight starts in which he’s failed to record a winning decision. While he owns a decent 3.61 ERA at home, it’s a poor 6.25 on the road. Jake Odorizzi: He’s 6-6 with a 4.30 ERA. Odorizzi most recently took a loss despite allowing just two runs off three hits while striking out four over six innings to Toronto on Monday. The bottom line: Odorizzi hasn’t been perfect this year but comes in off the strong outing. We think that the recent form displayed by these starting pitchers points to another turbulent night for Miranda. Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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08-18-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -132 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. This is a big series for both clubs, but we think that Drew Pomeranz will benefit from familiar surroundings. Jordan Montgomery: He’s 7-6 with a 3.94 ERA. Montgomery faced the Red Sox on Sunday and gave up one run off two hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision. Montgomery has been exceptional as a starter in his rookie year, but is still just 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA on the road. Pomeranz: He’s 12-4 with a 3.39 ERA. Pomeranz most recently gave up three runs while stirking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Yanks on Saturday. Pomeranz enters the final stages of the campaign firing on all cylinders, having won six straight decisions and nine of his last ten. Pomeranz has walked just four batters over his last three starts and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home this year by going 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA. The bottom line: Note that New York is just 29-33 (-4.9 units) on the road this year, while Boston is 38-21 (+8.6 units) at home. The pressure is on the rookie in our opinion. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-18-17 | Blue Jays +165 v. Cubs | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT BEST BET on the Toronto Blue Jays. We think that the surging JA Happ and the still Wildcard hopeful Toronto Blue Jays have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Happ: He’s 6-8 with a 3.63 ERA. Happ most recently gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Happ allowed only four hits on the way to his third straight winning decision. Note that Happ has done well in this spot all year by going 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in all “day” games. Jake Arrieta: He’s 12-8 with a 3.73 ERA. Arrieta comes in off a win over Arizona on Sunday, allowing one earned run off three hits over six innings in a 7-2 victory on Sunday. Like his counterpart today, Arrieta has turned his campaign around of late, with solid numbers across the board. The bottom line: Arrieta has been great, but not spectacular. We think these starters are a “wash.” The Cubs are coming off a deflating 13-10 loss yesterday at home to the Reds, while the Jays kept their slim wild card berth hopes alive with a crucial win over division rival Tampa yesteday afternoon. Toronto is starting to get huge production from its underachieving “big bats,” with slugger Josh Donaldson leading the way. Toronto is 25-19 (+3.7 units) in all “day” games, while Chicago is just 26-28 (-17 units) in all day contests. Great spot wager, play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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08-17-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates -117 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cards lost in devastating fashion last night, as the Red Sox would go on to plate two runs in the bottom of the ninth to secure the 5-4 victory. The Pirates can empathize as they’d lost 7-6 in Milwaukee in a back-and-forth contest. Both teams are looking to bounce back on Thursday night, but we think that the home field advantage will ultimately prove to be the difference in this particular matchup. Adam Wainwright: He’s 12-5 with a 4.87 ERA. Wainwright most recently gave up one run with zero strikeouts in a win over the Braves on Friday. Since returning from the DL last week he has just one K over eight innings of work and note that he’s been at his absolute worst on the road this season by going 4-4 with a ballooned 7.00 ERA. Jameson Taillon: He’s 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA. Taillon gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Toronto on Friday. Taillon has gotten back on track with consecutive quality starts and looks poised to close the campaign strong in our opinion. The bottom line: The Cards are 26-31 (-5.4 units) on the road this year, while the Pirates are 32-26 (+2.3 units) at home. We expect Wainwright’s road issues to carry over and we’re also looking for Taillon to continue his steady progression. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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08-16-17 | Tigers v. Rangers -180 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Texas Rangers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Cole Hamels and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Anibal Sanchez: He’s 3-3 with a 6.69 ERA. Sanchez most recently gave up five runs off eight hits while striking out six over six innings in a loss to Minnesota on Friday. Note that he owns an even worse 6.87 ERA on the road thus far. Hamels: He’s 7-1 with a 3.31 ERA. Hamels most recently went seven scoreless against Houston on Friday to earn his third straight victory (three hits and five K’s.) Hamels has now allowed zero earned runs in four of his last seven trips to the hill, compiling an 2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 36:10 K:BB in 48.2 innings in the process. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA at home. The bottom line: We have a hard time seeing Hamels “looking past” this golden opportunity. We expect the southpaw to come in fully focused on the task at hand to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-15-17 | Braves v. Rockies -150 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Colorado Rockies. We believe the Kyle Freeland that hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Sean Newcomb: He’s 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA. Newcomb most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. It was only the rookies second quality outing in his past seven starts (note that he’s just 1-5 with a 4.68 ERA in all “night” contests.) Freeland: He’s 11-7 with a 3.70 ERA. Freeland left his last start with a groin issue, but returns from the ten-day DL with a clean bill of health. Freeland has been far from perfect this year, but he’s been much more consistent than his volatile counterpart (and note, he’s been at his most consistent at home as well by going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. And that’s saying something when it’s Coors Field we’re talking about.) The bottom line: Note that ATL is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four against southpaws, while Colorado is 20-13 (+10.4 units) in the same position. We’re expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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08-15-17 | Mets v. Yankees -141 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the New York Yankees. We like Sonny Gray to finally get off the schneid for his new team and get the better of Mets’ ace Jacob DeGrom in this one. DeGrom: He’s 13-5 with a 3.21 ERA. He was forced from his last start after taking a come-backer of his arm, but had gone 6.2 scoreless innings previous to the scare. It’s hard to say anything negative about DeGrom, so we won’t bother. We simply feel this is a bad spot for the Mets. Gray: He’s 6-7 with a 3.39 ERA. Gray most recently allowed three runs (two earned) while striking out six over six innings in a loss to Toronto on Thursday. He’s now given up two earned runs or fewer over his past eight starts and to go along with his respectable 3.39 ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.18 WHIP and elite 8.8 K/9. The bottom line: The Yanks have been scuffling, but looked poised for a big night with their newest addition to the rotation on the mound. Note that the Mets are just 1-3 (-2 units) in their last four as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Yankees are 18-11 (+2.2 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. All things considered, a very fair price, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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08-14-17 | Astros v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that the home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker for Diamondbacks’ ace Zack Greinke. Collin McHugh: He’s 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA. McHugh most recently gave up seven runs off nine hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. This was his worst outing since returning from the DL (note that he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA on the road thus far.) Greinke: He’s 13-5 with a 3.14 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up three runs off four hits over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday, also going on to strike out eight. Greinke had previously been rocked for six runs off the Cubs, so this was a nice bounce back effort. He’ll have to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 10-1 with a tiny 2.52 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess starting pitching, “recent performance” is often the best tool we have to do that. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that McHugh has another long night in store for him Monday. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-14-17 | Reds v. Cubs -200 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Jose Quintana and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Asher Wojciechowski: He’s 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA. Wojciechowski most recently allowed three runs off seven hits while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. He’s admittedly looked better of late, but note that he still owns a poor 6.23 ERA on the road thus far this season. Quintana: He’s 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA. Quintana gave up four runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in a road loss to the Giants on Tuesday. Quintan is just 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA for the Cubs, although he has posted a tiny 1.03 WHIP in that span. The bottom line: Note that Cincinnati is just 6-12 (-4.1 units) in its last 18 against teams with winning records, while Chicago is 12-6 (+1.5 units) in its last 18 against clubs with losing records. We like Quintana to settle down and to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-13-17 | Red Sox -170 v. Yankees | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RED DRAGON on the Boston Red Sox. Jordan Montgomery has been excellent in his time as a starter for the Yanks this year and he’s been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. Chris Sale though has been on an entirely different level and comes in perhaps his best start of the 2017/18 campaign. Suffice it to say, we absolutely feel that Sale and the hard-hitting visiting side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Sale: He’s 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA. Sale most recently went eight scoreless against Tampa on Tuesday, giving up two hits while striking out 13. The crafty southpaw has now held his opponents scoreless in five of his last seven trips to the hill (he’s also struck out double-digit batters in seven of his last ten.) Note that Sale is 8-3 with a tiny 2.37 ERA on the road this year. Montgomery: He’s 7-6 with a 4.05 ERA. Montgomery last pitched on Sunday against Cleveland and gave up one run over five innings. UPDATE: It’s just been reported that Montgomery was struck by a ball in practice on Saturday afternoon and he’s going to be re-evaluated. The bottom line: Whether it’s Montgomery or Caleb Smith going, we still love Sale in this one. Check back soon for another update on the status of Montgomery, but all signs point to a lop-sided destruction. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-12-17 | Padres +258 v. Dodgers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Padres. We simply feel that Hyun-Jin Ryu is getting much too much respect in this particular matchup. Jhoulys Chacin: He’s 11-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Chacin gave up five runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Monday, also going on to strike out five. We’re not going to overreact to one poor outing though, as Chacin had gone 12 consecutive starts previous to that dud in which he’d given up three earned runs or fewer (is a highly respectable 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA on the road this year.) Ryu: He’s 4-6 with a 3.53 ERA. Ryu comes in on off his strongest start of the year, going seven scoreless while striking out eight over the Mets on Sunday. Ryu has been solid this year and is 2-2 with a 3.51 ERA at home. The bottom line: We think Chacin can match Ryu inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we think the value swings to the underdog. Play on the PADRES. AAA Sports |
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08-12-17 | Orioles +113 v. A's | 12-5 | Win | 113 | 31 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. Dylan Bundy: He’s 11-8 with 4.15 ERA. Bundy gave up two runs off five hits while striking out ten over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Monday. Bundy has been solid for the most part this year for the Orioles and sports a solid 1.19 WHIP so far (is 8-6 with a 3.55 ERA in all “night” games thus far.) Sean Manaea: He’s 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Manaea most recently was shelled for six runs off six hits with one strikeout over 3.1 innings against the Angels on Sunday. Manaea comes in off back-to-back disasters, lasting a combined 6.1 innings while allowing 12 runs in two starts. The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Manaea has another long night in store for him again. All things considered, a great price. Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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08-12-17 | Cubs -130 v. Diamondbacks | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. We think Jon Lester and the defending champs could/should easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Lester: He’s 8-6 with a 3.97 ERA. Lester gave up three runs off six hits with one walk while striking out seven over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against Washignton on Sunday. Note that the veteran has been at his best in this spot all year, going 5-2 with a respectable 3.29 ERA in all “night” games. Patrick Corbin: He’s 8-11 with a 4.76 ERA. Corbin gave up six runs off seven hits with two walks and ten K’s over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. In his previous start Corbin has been shelled for seven runs over three innings (is just 4-8 witha 5.71 ERA in all “night” games.) The bottom line: Note that Chicago is 19-9 (+7.8 units) against southpaws this year, while Arizona is just 12-14 (-1.9 units) against left-handers. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-12-17 | Braves v. Cardinals -210 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Carlos Martinez and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Lucas Sims: He’s 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA. Lucas most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks while stirking out three over six frames in a loss to the Marlins on Sunday. Martinez: He’s 8-9 with a 3.52 ERA. Martinez gave up two runs off six hits while stirking out seven over eight innings in a victory over the Royals on Monday. Martinez sports a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and elite 9.6 K/9 and has been at his best at home this season by going 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA. The bottom line: These teams are moving in opposite directions, with Atlanta just 3-5 (-3 units) in August, while St. Louis is 7-3 (+4 units). Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-11-17 | Reds v. Brewers -169 | 11-10 | Loss | -169 | 30 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Milwaukee Brewers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Homer Bailey: He’s 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA. Bailey most recently was shelled for ten runs off ten hits and four walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. For the most part Bailey has been a disaster this year and his 5.47 ERA on the road is very uninspiring. Nelson: He’s 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA. Nelson comes in off a gem against Tampa Bay on Sunday, giving up one run off six hits and two walks while stirking out nine in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Nelson has to be feeling pretty confident tonight as he’s already 5-3 with a tiny 2.43 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Bailey has another long night in store for him. Nelson should kick his own ass tonight if he falters against Bailey the “gas can.” Lay the price with confidence, play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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08-11-17 | Royals -160 v. White Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Kansas City Royals. We absolutely feel that Danny Duffy and the Royals are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Duffy: He’s 7-7 with a 3.48 ERA. Duffy comes in off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Sunday, giving up seven runs (just three earned) off seven hits with eight K’s over 5.2 innings in the eventual loss. Duffy has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA on the road and an even better 6-3 witha 2.97 ERA in all “night” games. Reynaldo Lopez: He’s 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, making his season debut for the White Sox this evening. Lopez posted a 3.79 ERA and has 131 K’s over 121 innings for Triple-A Charlotte and he’ll replace Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one in our opinion. The sky is the limit for Lopez we’re sure, but Duffy and the surging ROYALS are the correct call here. Lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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08-10-17 | Dodgers -155 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Darvish: He’s 7-9 with a 3.81 ERA. Darvish looked dominant in his debut for his new team, scattering three hits and a walk while striking out ten over seven scoreless frames in a 6-0 win over the Mets on Friday. Darvish was in complete control and threw 68 of his 99 pitches for strikes (note that he’s been particularly tough on the road all year by going 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA.) Anthony Banda: He’s 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. The rookie earned another start with Robbie Ray on the DL and after holding San Francisco to one run off three hits over six frames in a victory Friday. So far Banda owns a 1.50 ERA on the road and a 6.35 ERA at home. The bottom line: The sky is the limit for Banda, but we think he’s in way over his head against the red hot Darvish. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-10-17 | Padres v. Reds -134 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cincinnati Reds. We think that Luis Castillo has a big advantage by throwing on his home field in this matchup of young hurlers on Thursday afternoon. Dinelson Lamet: He’s 6-4 with a 5.12 ERA. Lamet most recently gave up one hit over five scoreless innings in a victory over the Pirates on Saturday. Lamet has looked better of late, but he still owns a horrible 6.03 ERA on the road and 6.11 ERA in all “day” games. Castillo: He’s 2-5 with a 3.64 ERA. Castillo most recently gave up four runs (three earned) off three hits over 6.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. So far the rookie owns a 4.01 ERA at home and a 3.21 ERA in all day contests. The bottom line: We look for Lamet’s road issues to carry over and we like Castillo to bounce back after his pedestrian outing last time out. Lay the price with confidence, play on the REDS. AAA Sports |
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08-09-17 | Royals v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Cardinals. We don't think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a factor in the final outcome of this one. Trevor Cahill: He’s 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA. Cahill most recently allowed two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out three over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Thursday. In his previous start Cahill gave up five earned runs over four innings, meaning he’s now given up 12 runs over his last 12.1 innings of work (note that he’s 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA on the road.) Mike Leake: He’s 7-10 with a 3.34 ERA. Leake most recently allowed three runs off eight hits while striking out three over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Friday. Leake posted a 2.98 ERA in June, but scuffled in July. Despite that though he still owns a very respectable 3.20 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: We expect Cahill to continue to struggle on the road and we expect Leake to take full advantage. All things considered, a great price. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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08-08-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +111 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 111 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both of these starting pitchers has been hot of late. We’ll call them a “wash” in this one, but give the slight nod to Arizona because of the home field advantage. Kenta Maeda: He’s 10-4 with a 3.79 ERA. Maeda comes in off a gem against the Braves on Tuesday, going seven scoreless with six K’s. Over his last six outings he’s gone 5-1 with a tiny 2.20 ERA. With Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy both on the DL, Maeda’s recent form will keep him in the starting rotation for now. Zack Godley: He’s 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA. Godley most recently gave up three hits and two walks over six scoreless frames while striking out five in a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. Godley has now posted 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts and note that he’s been particularly effective at home this season by going 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA. The bottom line: As we mentioned off the top, we think that home field advantage will prove to be the difference tonight. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-08-17 | Red Sox -190 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 6* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Chris Sale and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Sale: He’s 13-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Sale most recently allowed seven runs off eight hits in a no-decision against the Tribe on Tuesday (also striking out five.) Sale came into that start having posted 20.2 scoreless innings, but he came up short in what was clearly his worst outing of the campaign. No need to hit the panic button though obviously, Sale looks to get back on track now and improve upon his already impressive 7-3, 2.60 ERA record on the road. Austin Pruitt: He’s 6-2 with a 5.65 ERA. Pruitt enters off his best start of his career, going six shutout innings against Houston on Wednesday. Previous to that though the rookie had been blasted for five runs over five innings at Yankee Stadium and note that he owns a poor 5.65 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 51-37 (+3.7 units) this year against right-handed starters this year, while Tampa Bay is just 15-19 (-2.4 units) against southpaws. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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08-07-17 | Cubs -183 v. Giants | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely feel that Jake Arrieta and the defending World champs could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Jake Arrieta: He’s 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA. Arrieta gave up two runs (just one earned) off three hits and two walks in a loss to Arizona on Wednesdsay (also striking out eight.) Over his last six starts Arrieta has posted a tiny 2.08 ERA and 31:11 K:BB spanning 39 innings of work. Matt Moore: He’s 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA. Moore gave up four runs over five frames in a loss to Oakland on Wednesday. Moore is enduring the worst season of his career and is just 2-7 with a 4.59 ERA at home this season and a deplorable 1-8 with a 7.32 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: Note that Chicago is 18-8 (+6.7 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -200 range, while San Francisco is just 24-31 (-11.8 units) at home this season. The only question is if Arrieta will come in focused for this one and we think he will. The former Chicago ace started the season terribly, but is in line to finish up strong and once again be considered amongst the elite in the league. All signs point to a rout, lay the price with confidence. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros -117 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. We think these starting pitchers are a “wash,” which we feel swings the value onto the hard-hitting home side. Marcus Stroman: He’s 10-5 with a 3.19 ERA. Stroman comes in off a strong July, going 1-1 with a 2.03 ERA over five starts. Mike Fiers: He’s 7-6 with a 3.97 ERA. Fiers comes in off a dud agains the Rays on Tuesday, givin gup six runs over six innings. Fiers has admittedly struggled of late, but he’s been consistently at his best at home this year with a 3.45 ERA. The bottom line: Toronto is just 41-41 (-6.4 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Houston is 55-24 (+24 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-17 | Rangers v. Twins -149 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Minnesota Twins. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in our opinion, Jose Berrios and the home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Nick Martinez: He’s 3-4 with a 5.07 ERA. Martinez most recently got rocked for seven runs over 5.1 innings in a loss Tuesday. Note that he’s been particularly poor on the road this year by going just 2-3 with a 5.24 ERA. Jose Berrios: He’s 9-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Berrios held San Diego to one run off two hits while stirking out four over seven innings in an uaunfortunate loss. Berrios has admittedly scuffled over the last month, but the second year pro is still 5-1 with a tiny 2.61 ERA at home and 6-0 with a 3.20 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one. We think Martinez will struggle again on the road, while we look for Berrios to continue his dominance at home. All things considered, a great price. Play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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08-06-17 | Brewers +137 v. Rays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. We think that Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Nelson: He’s 9-5 with a 3.37 ERA. Nelson gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday. The big right-hander has now posted five quality efforts out of his last seven trips to the hill and to go along with his solid 3.37 ERA, he also owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and elite 56:8 K:BB in 43.2 innings of work (is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in all “day” games this year.) Chris Archer: He’s 8-6 with a 3.89 ERA. Archer gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a 6-4 victory over Houston on Tuesday. Archer has not posted consecutive victories since late June though (is 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA at home.) The bottom line: Milwaukee is already 13-11 (+8.2 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while Tampa is just 10-12 (-7.5 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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08-05-17 | Dodgers -180 v. Mets | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the LA Dodgers. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we absolutely feel that Rich Hill and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Hill: He’s 8-4 with a 3.35 ERA. Hill comes in off a gem against the Giants on Saturday, allowing one run off two hits over 5.2 innings. Hill has now given up two or fewer earned run in each of his five starts in July. Note that he’s been particularly tough on the road as well by going 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Seth Lugo: He’s 5-3 with a 4.61 ERA. Lugo most recently was shelled for five runs off eight hits in a loss to Seattle on Sunday. Lugo has now served up two home runs in each of his last two starts. The bottom line: Note that LA is 22-8 (+10.6 units) in all “day” games, while New York is just 10-21 (-13.7 units) in all day contests. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-04-17 | Padres v. Pirates -170 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Travis Wood looked good in his first start for the Padres, beating these very Pirates last week, while Pittsburgh ace Ivan Nova gets a chance for revenge after falling to San Diego. Wood: He’s 2-3 with a 6.42 ERA. Wood gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 victory over the Pirates last Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for him though and note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road this year by going 1-2 with an atrocious 7.36 ERA. Nova: He’s 10-8 with a 3.75 ERA. Nova gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out six in a loss to San Diego on Saturady. Nova has looked shaky over the last month, but has a big opportunity to “right the ship” this evening as he’s already 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home. The bottom line: San Diego is just 7-15 (-4.8 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 14-7 (+3.9 unit) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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08-04-17 | Mariners -141 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Seattle Mariners. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that James Paxton could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup. Paxton: He’s 11-3 with a 2.68 ERA. Paxton most recently gave up six hits over six shutout frames while going on to stike out eight and give up zero walks in a win over the Mets on Sunday. Over his last 39.1 innings of work Paxton has posted a 1.37 ERA. Jason Hammel: He’s 5-8 with a 4.75 ERA. Hammel looked great in June but took a major step back in July by going 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA over six starts. Note that Hammel is just 2-6 with a 4.66 ERA in all night games this year. The bottom line: We like Paxton to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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08-03-17 | Yankees v. Indians -133 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. We think Sonny Gray will predictably choke in his first start for his new team and we look for Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting home side to take full advantage. Gray: He’s 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA. Gray has been fantastic of late, posting a tiny 1.37 ERA over his last 39.1 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to say anything negative about Gray, so we won’t bother. We simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander. Kluber: He’s 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Kluber was 1-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 56 K’s over five July starts. He’d finish the month with an epic 14.7 K/9. The bottom line: Note that New York is just 13-23 (-11.1 units) on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Cleveland is 5-1 (+4 units) at home with a money line in the same range. Great value, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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08-03-17 | Diamondbacks +120 v. Cubs | Top | 10-8 | Win | 120 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We’re calling these hard-hitting line-ups a “wash,” but we think that Jose Quintana is getting way too much respect in this matchup. Zack Greinke: He’s 13-4 with a 2.84 ERA. Greinke gave up one run off four hits and a walk while stirking out nine over seven innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Saturday. Greinke comes in on fire, having posted four quality starts out of his last five outings. Quintana: He’s 6-9 with a 4.16 ERA. Quintana most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to Milwaukee on Friday. Quintana has posted a 2.37 ERA since becoming a Cub, but has consistently been inconsistent in this position all year, going just 3-6 with a poor 5.03 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: Note that Arizona is 17-16 (+1.6 units) in all day games this year, while Chicago is 24-24 (-13 units) in all day contests. We like Greinke to outduel Quintana and in a scenario like that, we believe the value swings to the underdog. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-17 | Mets v. Rockies -145 | 10-5 | Loss | -145 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Tyler Chatwood and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Chris Flexen: He’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Flexen gave up four runs off five hits and four walks over just three innings in his major league debut to the soft-hitting Padres on Thursday. Chatwood: He’s 6-11 with a 4.78 ERA. Chatwood has been reactivated from the ten-day DL and has been better on the road than at home this season. The bottom line: Chatwood still gets the big nod from us, as we expect Flexen to get crushed at Coors Field. Lay the price with confidence, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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08-02-17 | Rays v. Astros -200 | 3-0 | Loss | -200 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Houston Astros. We think Dallas Keuchel and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Austin Pruitt: He’s 5-2 with a 6.63 ERA. Pruitt most recently was rocked for five runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Friday. Pruitt has been an absolute disaster at the major league leve, posting a 6.63 ERA over 36.2 innings of work (7.25 ERA on the road.) Keuchel: He’s 9-0 with a 1.94 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a shaky start against Detroit on Friday, giving up three runs over three innings in an eventual no-decision. It was Keuchel’s first start back since injury in almost two months, but he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back with a better effort tonight, as note that he’s 4-0 with a minuscule 1.04 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one. Get down as fast as you can before this line moves even higher. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -165 | 3-0 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. A couple of red hot starters collide in Chicago on Wednesday night. Zack Godley: He’s 4-4 with a 3.06 ERA. Godley most recently went seven scoreless with seven K’s in a win over the Cardinals on Thursday. To go along with his solid 3.06 ERA, Godley also sports a sharp 1.01 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 (his peripherals suggest that it’s no fluke either, as his 3.03 FIP makes his numbers sustainable moving forward.) Note that he owns a solid 3.04 ERA on the road as well. Jake Arrieta: He’s 10-7 with a 4.03 ERA. Arrieta most recently gave up two runs off two hits while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Wednesday. Arrieta continued his string of strong play, as he came into that one having posted a 3.30 ERA over his previous ten trips to the hill (giving up two runs or fewer in seven of those starts.) Note that Arrieta owns a respectable 3-1, 3.86 ERA record at home. The bottom line: As good as Godley has been, it now appears as if Arrieta has finally regained his elite form. If this game was in Arizona, the value would surely be on Godley, but a red hot surging Arrieta at home could/shoudl easily be a much larger fav in this spot. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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08-02-17 | Reds v. Pirates -150 | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that the Reds have a long night in store for them: Robert Stephenson: He’s 0-4 with a 7.86 ERA. Stephenson most recently allowed three runs off four hits and seven walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Thursday. To go along with his atrocious 7.86 ERA, Stephenson also owns a ghastly 2.04 WHIP through 34.1 innings this year (is 0-2 with a 10.34 ERA on the road.) Trevor Williams: He’s 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA. Williams most recently gave up one run off five hits and three walks over six innings against San Francisco on Wednesday. Williams looks to build off that performance and improve upon his respectable 3.99 ERA record at home. The bottom line: Williams is hungry and draws the perfect opponent to build off his latest performance. Lay the price, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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08-02-17 | Tigers v. Yankees -218 | 2-0 | Loss | -218 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Masahiro Tanaka and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 6-8 with a 5.69 ERA. Zimmermann most recently allowed three runs off six hits in a no-decision against the Astros on Friday. To go along with his horrible 5.69 ERA, Zimmerman also sports a poor 1.51 WHIP (in July he had a 1.58 WHIP and 6.23 ERA.) While he’s a somewhat respectable 5-3 with a 4.64 ERA at home, Zimmermann is just 1-5 with a 6.67 ERA on the road. Tanaka: He’s 8-9 with a 5.09 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a gem against Tampa Bay on Friday, giving up one run off two hits while striking out 14 across eight frames in the eventual victory. Note that the Japanese hurler has been much better at home (4-0, 3.12) compared to on the road (0-3, 6.49). The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Zimmermann has another long afternoon in store for him. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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08-01-17 | Phillies -101 v. Angels | 1-7 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Philadelphia Phillies. We like the Phillies to build off their 7-6 home win over the Braves yesterday afternoon and take the opener of this three-game interleague series: Aaron Nola: He’s 8-6 with a 3.17 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten over six scoreless innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Astros on Wednesday. The ten K’s were a career-high for the Phillies’ starter. Nola owns a solid 3.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 and is 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA in all “night” games this year. Ricky Nolasco: He’s 4-12 with a 5.07 ERA. Nolasco most recently gave up three runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings while striking out four in what turned out to be a 10-4 loss to the Indians on Wednesday. The bottom line: Nolasco has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, while Nola has gotten steadily stronger as the season has progressed. We like Nola to outduel the “gas can” Nolasco, play on the PHILLIES (great value). AAA Sports |
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08-01-17 | Blue Jays -200 v. White Sox | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Marcus Stroman and the revenge-minded Blue Jays could/should be much largers ones in this particular matchup: Stroman: He’s 9-5 with a 3.08 ERA. Stroman got into a fight with an umpire in his last start and was ejected after going 4.2 innings and givein up three runs off six hits and four K’s. Stroman has been strong on the road this year, going 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA. Mike Pelfrey: He’s 3-8 with a 4.73 ERA. Pelfrey most recently was rocked for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Pelfrey’s peripherals (5.51 FIP) suggest that rockier times are ahead and that his recent surge leading up to this recent dud was clearly unsustainable (note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA at home this year.) The bottom line: We like Stroman to come in with a chip on his shoulder and to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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08-01-17 | Indians v. Red Sox -141 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Boston Red Sox. Boston won 6-2 yesterday and we’re expecting the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done on Tuesday night with its ace on the mound as well: Carlos Carrasco: He’s 10-4 with a 3.58 ERA. Carrasco most recently allowed two runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday. Carrasco has been solid across the board, we simply feel he’s in the wrong spot at the wrong time tonight. Chris Sale: He’s 13-4 with a 2.37 ERA. Sale most recently went seven scoreless and struck out 11 against Seattle on Wednesday. Sale now has a massive 211 K’s over just 148.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.07 ERA at home so far this year. The bottom line: Cleveland is just 1-3 (-2.7 units) in its last four against southpaws, while Boston is 5-2 (+2.6 units) in its last seven against right-handed starters. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-31-17 | Giants v. A's -142 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland Athletics. We like this play whether its Sonny Gray or Paul Blackburn pitching for the home side, as we’re basing this selection entirely on the fact that we believe struggling Giants’ starter Matt Cain will once again come up short: Cain: He’s 3-9 with a 5.45 ERA. Cain most recently allowed six runs off six hits and a walk over four innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The veteran has been decent at home (3-3, 3.25) but a nightmare on the road (0-6, 8.14.) Gray: He’s 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA. Gray most recently allowed four runs (all unearned) off vie hit while striking out nine in a 4-1 loss to the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Gray has posted six straight quality outings with a 1.37 ERA and 36:9 K:BB ratio spanning 39.1 innings of work. Gray has been involved in trade rumors, so if he doesn’t get the start, then Blackburn will. Blackburn: He’s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Blackburn most recently held the Jays to just two hits over seven scoreless innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision on Wednesday. Clearly regression will come for Blackburn, but that said, he still owns a 2.25 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: San Francisco is just 18-36 (-17.6 units) this year on the road, while Oakland is 29-24 (+4.6 units) at home. Play on the ATHLETICS. AAA Sports |
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07-31-17 | Nationals -130 v. Marlins | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. We like Gio Gonzalez to outduel his younger counterpart tonight as we look for the hard-hitting visiting side to bounce back after yesterday’s 10-6 home defeat to the Rockies: Gonzalez: He’s 8-5 with a 2.81 ERA. Gonzalez most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday, also going on to strike out eight. Gonzalez is sporting a career best ERA at this moment and is a solid 7-3 with a 3.50 ERA in all road contests so far. Jose Urena: He’s 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA. Urena somehow earned a win over the Rangers on Wednesday despite giving up five runs and four walks over five innings. Urena has been decent in a starters role and is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA at home. The bottom line: Miami is just 9-12 against southpaws this year, while Washington is 49-34 against right-handed starters. All things considered, a great price in our opinion. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-31-17 | Tigers v. Yankees -175 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Detroit comes in off a satisfying 13-1 win over the Astros yesterday, while New York will be eager to return to the winners circle after falling 5-3 at home to the Rays. Looks like a classic letdown spot for the Tigers in our opinion: Michael Fulmer: He’s 10-8 with a 3.35 ERA. Fulmer gave up three runs off eight hits over eight innings while striking out six in a 3-1 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday. Hard to say anything negative about Fulmer, as he’s been solid across the board this year. But as mentioned off the top, we simply feel this is a bad spot for Detroit. Luis Severino: He’s 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA. Severino gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Wednesday. It was the fourth straight outing in which Severino has worked into the seventh inning (is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA in all “night” games.) The bottom line: Note that Detroit is already just 4-7 (-1.3 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while New York is 17-8 (+5.1 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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07-31-17 | Royals -129 v. Orioles | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Royals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Danny Duffy could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup: Duffy: He’s 7-6 with a 3.56 ERA. Duffy most recently gave up one run off six hits and a walk over 6.1 innings in 3-1 victory over Detroit on Tuesday, also going on to strike out four. Duffy enters his last start in July having posted a 3.62 ERA this month to go along with a sharp 1.05 WHIP and 25:3 K:BB over 32.1 innings of work (is 6-3 with a 3.14 ERA in all “night” games.) Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 4-7 with a 7.46 ERA. Jimenez gave up two runs off three hits over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Jimenez has been a disaster overall this year though and has been at his absolute worst at home by going just 1-2 with an 8.42 ERA thus far. The bottom line: These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, as KC is 15-9 (+6.8 units) in July, while Baltimore is just 10-14 (-4.3 units) this month. We like Duffy to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart, play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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07-30-17 | Giants +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants. LA has won seven straight and eight of its last ten, but we think it’ll have a letdown here against Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner, who comes in off his first win of the year. Bumgarner: He’s 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA. In 2016 Bumgarner was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA, including 9-4 with a 2.14 ERA at home. He returned from injury and looked shaky over his first two starts, but last Tuesday he finally recorded his first victory of the season by allowing one run while striking out four over five innings. Hyun Jin Ryu: He’s 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA. Ryu gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a no-decision against Minnesota on Monday. Note that he’s just 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: With a night off before a series against the lowly Braves, there’s no question that this one sets up as a bit of a trap for LA. Conversely, the Giants will be hungry to get back into the winners circle after dropping the first two games of this series and definitely won’t be “looking past” anything tonight, with a home and home set starting in Oakland tomorrow night. All signs point to a letdown for the home side, play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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07-30-17 | Twins v. A's -145 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Oakland A’s. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Jharel Cotton and the home side could/should easily be much largers ones in this particular matchup: Bartolo Colon: He’s 2-9 with an 8.00 ERA. Colon most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and no walks while striking out two over five innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. Colon has struggled in every facet of the game this year and has been particularly horrible on the road by going 1-5 with a 7.77 ERA. Cotton: He’s 5-8 with a 5.17 ERA. Cotton returns from the DL after sitting out most of July. In his final re-hab start Cotton looked sharp by going six scoreless and posting nine K’s. Cotton has been hit-or-miss this season but has been at his best in all “day” games by going 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA. The bottom line: Minnesota is just 17-26 (-7.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while Oakland is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five day contests. The fact that Colon is part of the Twins starting rotation tells you something about the team right now. Lay the price with confidence as the A’S cruise to victory. AAA Sports |
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07-28-17 | Mets v. Mariners -142 | 7-5 | Loss | -142 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Ariel Miranda and the home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Rafael Montero: He’s 1-7 with a 5.19 ERA. Montero most recently allowed three runs off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to Oakland on Sunday. Montero owns a poor 1.73 WHIP and is a terrible 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all night contests this season. Miranda: He’s 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Miranda most recently gave up two runs off five hits and one walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings against the Yanks on Saturday. Miranda is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in all night games this year and 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA at home. The bottom line: The Mets are just 23-30 (-11 units) this year following a loss, while the Mariners are 4-3 (+2 units) after getting shutout. Play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports |
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07-28-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -113 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both starters have been solid this year, but each is coming off a sub-par performance. We think Michael Wacha will take advantage of familiar surroundings though and get the better of Robbie Ray and the D-backs once it’s all said and done: Ray: He’s 9-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Ray gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Ray has been better on the road than at home, but draws a tough matchup in St. Louis tonight. Wacha: He’s 7-4 with with a 3.93 ERA. Wacha gave up five runs off six hits over six innings in a 5-3 loss to the Cubs on Sunday (he did go on to walk zero and strike out six though.) Previous to that Wacha had won four straight behind a 1.01 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch (he’s been his best at home this year as well, 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA.) The bottom line: These teams are moving in opposite directions, with Arizona going 8-12 (-5.5 units) in July, while St. Louis is 12-10 (+1.4 units) in July. All things considered, a great price on the home side. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-28-17 | Indians -205 v. White Sox | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Danny Salazar and the hard-hitting visiting side could easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup: Salazar: He’s 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA. Salazar returned from injury to make his first start since May 27th and looked sharp in allowing just a single hit while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the Jays on Saturday. Derek Holland: He’s 5-9 with a 5.12 ERA. Holland most recently allowed three runs off four hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Holland has been plagued by the long-ball this year, now allowing 2.12 home runs per nine innings and while he’s been better at home (3.72) than on the road (6.27), he’s still a horrible 2-7 with a 7.23 ERA in all night games. The bottom line: We like Salazar to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-28-17 | Astros v. Tigers +168 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. We think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the home dog: Dallas Keuchel: He’s 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Keuchel has been out for nearly two months with a neck injury he suffered in early June. Keuchel made two rehab appearances and gave up one run over eight innings of work. Keuchel appears ready to return to form, but note that he’ll definitely be under a pitch count in his first start back. Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 6-8 with a 5.81 ERA. Off perhaps one of his best outings of the year, Zimmermann then came back with a dud last time out, giving up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. For the most part Zimmermann has struggled this year, but note that he’s been his most solid at home by going 5-3 with a 4.31 ERA. The bottom line: This is a solid situational play. Keuchel is under a pitch count and draws a tough matchup in his first big league start in two months. Meanwhile Zimmermann is doing everything he can to finish the season strong. We look for Zimmermann to at least match Keuchel inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees -173 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we definitely feel that Masahiro Tanaka and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Austin Pruitt: He’s 5-1 with a 6.25 ERA. He’s been elite at the Triple-A level, but owns a 6.25 ERA over 18 appearances (one start) in the majors (owns a 6.75 ERA on the road.) Tanaka: He’s 7-9 with a 5.37 ERA. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out six over six innings in a sub-par outing in Seattle on Saturday (Tanaka owns a 4.75 ERA at home but is a strong 7-4 with 3.32 ERA in all night games.) The bottom line: Tampa is already 0-2 (-2 units) this year as a road dog in the +170 to +250 range, while New York is 4-1 (+1.5 units) in its last five as a home fav in the -170 to -250 range. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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07-26-17 | Cubs -205 v. White Sox | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Jake Arrieta and the defending champs could/should easily be much larger ones: Arrieta: He’s 9-7 with a 4.11 ERA. Arrieta comes in off a strong outing against the Cards on Friday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Arrieta closed the first half strong and that momentum has so far carried over into the second half. Jake Shields: He’s 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA. Shields most recently was rocked for six runs off ten hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Royals on Friday. Since re-joining the starting rotation, Shields has posted an 8.10 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 18:15 K:BB ratio spanning six starts and 30 innings. The bottom line: The Cubs are putting the foot on the gas now as the season comes down the home stretch. Clearly Arrieta is the better pitcher in this matchup and we think that the Cubs are worth the price overall. Note that the Cubs are 8-4 (+1.3 units) in their last 12 against clubs with losing records, while the White Sox are just 2-6 (-2.4 units) in their last eight against teams with winning records. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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07-26-17 | Marlins v. Rangers -170 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -170 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Texas Rangers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Jose Urena: He’s 8-4 with a 3.78 ERA. Urena comes in off a strong outing against the light-hitting Reds on Friday, giving up one run off three hits over six innings. Note though that it was the first time in three trips to the hill that he’s managed to post a quality outing (owns a pedestrian 4.31 ERA in all “night” games thus far.) Darvish: He’s 6-8 with a 3.44 ERA. Darvish most recently gave up three runs off five hits and one walk while striking out 12 over eight innings in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Friday (owns a 3.57 ERA in all night games.) The bottom line: Darvish is likely to be traded after tonight’s start, meaning that he has one more dress rehearsal for prospective suitors. We think Darvish comes in focused on the task at hand and easily outduels his inconsistent younger counterpart. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-25-17 | Pirates v. Giants -132 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Francisco Giants. We had a play on the Pirates last night, but we think the home side will bounce back on Tuesday and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Jameson Taillon: He’s 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA. Taillon most recently allowed two runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out eight over 5.1 innings in a win over Milwaukee on Thursday. Hard to find fault in Taillon’s play this year, as he’s been very solid across the board. However, we’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 11-13 (-1.2 units) against left-handed starters this year. Madison Bumgarner: He’s 0-4 with a 3.57 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed four runs while also striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Padres on Thursday. Since returning from the DL, the southpaw has given up seven runs spanning 14 innings. Not great obviously, but we think that Mad-Bum is going to finally get off the schneid tonight. The bottom line: Bumgarner was 9-4 with a 2.14 ERA at home last year and with a couple of warm-ups under his belt since returning from the DL, we think the Giants veteran brings his “A” game tonight. Wrong place, wrong time for Taillon. Play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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07-24-17 | Pirates -145 v. Giants | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We think Gerrit Cole and the Pirates could/should easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup: Cole: He’s 7-7 with a 4.18 ERA. Cole gave up one run over seven innings to go along with ten K’s with zero walks in an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. Cole has been solid of late and is 6-5 with a 4.05 ERA in all night contests this season. Matt Cain: He’s 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA. Cain gave up three runs off five hits while striking ouf five on Wednesday in a no-decision against the Indians. The veteran is making this start out of the bullpen in relief of Cueto and for the most part has been terribe across the board this year. The bottom line: The Pirates are already 3-1 (+1.7 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while San Francisco is just 20-27 (-11.1 units) at home this year. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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07-23-17 | Cardinals +156 v. Cubs | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. This has been a competitive series and we think the underdog Cards offer great value on the National stage Sunday night: Michael Wacha: He’s 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA. Wacha most recently went nine innings against the Mets on Tuesday, striking out eight while scattering three hits and a walk in the eventual 5-0 victory. Wacha has now won four straight and has given up just three runs while posting a 31:5 K:BB ratio spanning 26.2 innings of work. Jose Quintana: He’s 5-8 with a 4.20 ERA. Quintana went seven scoreless against the Orioles on Sunday, also posting 12 K’s. Quintana has looked much better of late, but if he had one clear weakness while in Chicago, it was his play at home where he was just 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA. The bottom line: Now Quintana heads to Wrigley for his first home game. We think the veteran will have a predictable letdown here though and we look for Wacha to continue his progression. As mentioned off the top, great value on the undervalued dog. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-23-17 | Nationals -114 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Both pitchers have been excellent, but we ultimately feel this is a matchup which favors the hard-hitting visiting side: Stephen Strasburg: He’s 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA. Strasburg most recently gave up one run over seven innings while striking out 11 in a victory over the Reds on Monday. Note that he’s 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA on the road. Robbie Ray: He’s 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA. Ray most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. So far Ray has 145 K’s in 112 innings of work. Ray has given up 55 bases on balls though, a number which suggests some regression is imminent. The bottom line: Washington is 10-5 (+2.6 units) this month, while Arizona is just 6-9 (-4 units) in July. We like Strasburg to outduel his counterpart this afternoon, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-23-17 | Pirates +102 v. Rockies | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We like Pittsburgh to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set after dropping Saturday’s contest 7-3: Ivan Nova: He’s 10-6 with a 3.27 ERA. Nova gave up three runs off ten hits and a walk over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Tuesday. Nova has posted a quality outing in nine of his last ten starts (owns a 3.63 ERA on the road.) Kyle Freeland: He’s 9-7 with a 3.67 ERA. Freeland was demoted to the bullpen, but is back to make this start today. The rookie has been better at home than on the road (3.23 ERA). The bottom line: Pittsburgh is 12-5 (+8.3 units) in July, while Colorado has been scuffling, just 8-8 (-1.4 units) this month. All things being equal at Coors Field, we think the veteran Nova offers great value in this matchup, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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07-23-17 | Rangers v. Rays -143 | 6-5 | Loss | -143 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat: Tyson Ross: He’s 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA. Ross gave up nine runs off seven hits and three walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Tuesday. For the most part Ross has been a disaster since returning from elbow injury and he’s been particularly feeble on the road by going 0-1 with an 8.16 ERA. Jake Odorizzi: He’s 6-4 with a 4.37 ERA. Odorizzi gave up one run off one hit to go along with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the A’s on Monday (is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in all “day” games.) The bottom line: Texas is 35-40 (-3.1 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Tampa is 39-28 (+10.3 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Indians -200 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup: JA Happ: He’s 3-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Happ gave up six runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Sunday. Happ has been solid this year, but this recent blowup is obviously a concern. Kluber: He’s 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA. Kluber’s last start was skipped over due to a neck injury. Kluber is among the AL leaders in most statistical categories (including WHIP at 0.96) and ninth in K’s with 135. The bottom line: Kluber has been sharp at home as well, 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA. Happ’s recent performance is throwing up major red flags for us, as we look for Kluber to benefit from the extra time off and continue his strong 2017 performance. Lay the price with confidence, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-21-17 | Braves +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 255 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Braves. Obviously this is a long-shot call, but we think it’s worth the risk. Alex Wood has been unbelievable this year, but regression seems imminent. We think that ATL has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset here: Jaime Garcia: It was rumored he’d be going to the Twins, but that move hasn’t happened yet. Tonight’s perfomance is likely a “dress rehearsal for the Garcia, who owns a respectable 3.99 ERA on the road this year. Wood: He’s 11-0 with a 1.56 ERA. Wood most recently went six scoreless against the Marlins on Saturday. The bottom line: Woods numbers are unsustainable in the second half in our opinion and immediate regression is in order. We like Atlanta to finally get to Wood. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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07-21-17 | Red Sox v. Angels +182 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA Angels. Chris Sale has been spectacular for the Red Sox this season, but we think that Boston will come out flat in this late night West Coast game after falling 8-6 at home to the Jays last night: Sale: He’s 11-4 with a 2.59 ERA. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Sale, so we won’t bother. As stated off the top, we simply feel that this is a bad spot for the visiting side. Ricky Nolasco: He’s 4-10 with a 4.82 ERA. Nolasco gave up one run off two hits with six K’s over seven innings in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Friday. Nolasco has been a lot better of late, posting quality outings in three of his last four starts. The bottom line: Boston is just 25-25 (-5 units) on the road this year, while LA has been at its best at home at 25-22 (+1.2 units). Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-21-17 | White Sox +170 v. Royals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Chicago White Sox. We like Chicago to catch the Royals a little flat-footed after their big 16-4 bounce back win over the Tigers last night: James Shields: He’s 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA. Shields most recently allowed four runs off seven hits over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Seattle on Friday. Shields is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA in all night games thus far. Ian Kennedy: He’s 3-6 with a 4.32 ERA. Kennedy most recently gave up two runs off five hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against Texas on Sunday. He was “lucky” that it wasn’t a lot worse, as the two runs he gave up were of the solo home-run variety. Kennedy’s 1.83 HR/9 this year is a career-worst. The bottom line: Kennedy doesn’t deserve this much respect in this matchup. We like Shields to match Kennedy inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-21-17 | A's +154 v. Mets | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oakland A’s. We think that Steven Matz is overpriced in this matchup: Paul Blackburn: He’s 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA. Blackburn most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Saturday. Blackburn is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA on the road and while regression across the board seems imminent, we feel he has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Matz: He’s 2-3 with a 4.58 ERA. Matz most recently was shelled for seven runs off nine hit in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. This is Matz’s second straight poor outing, which doesn’t bode well tonight as he’s 0-2 with an atrocious 12.38 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: These teams are moving in opposite directions, as Oakland is 8-7 (+1.6 units) in July, while New York is 5-8 (-3.7 units) this month. We like Blackburn to continue his progression and we look for Matz to continue to slide. Play on the ATHLETICS. AAA Sports |
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07-21-17 | Cardinals +138 v. Cubs | Top | 11-4 | Win | 138 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Carlos Martinez stumbled in his final two starts of the first half, but rebounded with a huge performance in the All Star game and was decent in his first start back from the break. The Cubs’ Jake Arrieta struggled to start the year, but closed the first half strong. Regardless of all of these facts, we definitely feel that Martinez and the Cardinals have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one: Martinez: He’s 6-8 with a 3.36 ERA. Martinez most recently gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Sunday. Despite a 2-5 record on the road, Martinez does own a very respectable 3.83 ERA. Arrieta: He’s 9-7 with a 4.17 ERA. Arrieta comes in off a victory over the Orioles on Saturday, giving up two runs over 6.2 innings of work. Note that Arrieta owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home though. The bottom line: St. Louis is already 17-14 (+1.1 units) in all “day” games, while Chicago is just 21-22 (-12.1 units) in all day contests. Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the undervalued dog, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-20-17 | Tigers v. Royals +106 | Top | 4-16 | Win | 106 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Kansas City Royals. Michael Fulmer is putting together a spectacular season, but Royals’ ace Danny Duffy comes off his most dominant outing of the 2017 campaign and suffice it to say, we expect the crafty southpaw to build off that performance and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night: Fulmer: He’s 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA. Fulmer most recently gave up one run off two hits and one walk while striking out three over eight innings in a victory over Toronto on Saturday. Duffy: He’s 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA. Duffy most recently held Texas to one earned run while striking out four over 8.1 innings. The bottom line: Note though that Detroit is just 18-28 (-8.1 units) on the road this year, while KC is 25-23 (+3 units) at home. Between two hot starters, we think this factor comes into play and all things considered, we do indeed feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Boston Red Sox. We don’t think that home field advantage can be ignored in this particular matchup: Francisco Liriano: He’s 5-5 with a 6.04 ERA. He’s been a major disappointment this season and is just 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA on the road. Doug Fister: He’s 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA for his new team. So far Fister is a poor 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA at home. The bottom line: We’ll call these starters a “wash,” but give the advantage to the hard-hitting home side, as note that Toronto is just 21-26 (-4.4 units) on the road, while the Red Sox are 28-17 (+3.7 units) in Boston. Lay the short price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-19-17 | Indians -205 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -205 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 3.65 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones: Carrasco: He’s 10-4 with a 3.65 ERA. Carrasco is coming off a sub-par outing which had a silver-lining, striking out ten over 6.1 innings but also allowing five runs off six hits in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Carrasco is 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA on the road this year. Matt Cain: He’s 3-8 with a 5.56 ERA. Cain has been a disaster this year and to go along with his unsightly 5.56 ERA, Cain also sports a deplorable 1.70 WHIP. The bottom line: Cain has struggled no matter the venue, while Carrasco has been at his best on the road. Lay the price with confidence, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-19-17 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | Top | 4-18 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Colorado Rockies. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we believe that Jon Gray and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Clayton Richard: He’s 5-9 with a 4.75 ERA. Richard most recently allowed four runs off 11 hits over five innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. It was the fourth time this year that Richard has allowed at least ten hits (note that he’s just 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games). Gray: He’s 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA. Gray most recently gave up eight runs off nine hits and three walks over two innings in a 14-2 loss to the Mets on Friday. It was clearly his worst outing of the year, but note that he still sports a solid 24:12 K:BB ratio since coming off the DL at the end of June (Note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA at home thus far). The bottom line: San Diego is just 13-18 (-2.1 units) in all “day” games this year, while Colorado is 24-13 (+11.1 units) in all day games. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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07-18-17 | Indians -128 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -128 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Mike Clevinger and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones: Mike Clevinger: He’s 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA. Clevinger most recently went six scoreless while striking out four in a victory over Detroit on Saturday. Clevinger has gotten better as the season has progressed, posting a tiny 1.67 ERA to go along with 28 K’s over his last five combined starts. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA on the road. Ty Blach: He’s 6-5 with a 4.60 ERA. Blach most recently gave up three runs off six hits in victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Blach has been serviceable, just is just 5-5 with a 5.50 ERA in all “night” games this year. The bottom line: Note that Cleveland is 27-19 (+1.8 units) on the road this year, while San Francisco is just 17-25 (-11.8 units) at home. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-18-17 | Mariners v. Astros -183 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 9-7 defeat: Sam Gaviglio: He’s 3-4 with a 4.31 ERA. Gaviglio has been serviceable so far this year, but owns a poor 5.11 ERA on the road. Brad Peacock: He’s 7-1 with a 2.63 ERA. Peacock most recently went six scoreless against Toronto on Sunday, allowing five hits and five walks with four K’s. Regression seems imminent for Peacock, but he still has to be feeling pretty good in this spot, as he’s 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. The bottom line: We think Gaviglio’s sub-par play on the road continues in this tough environment and we look for Peacock to do just enough to secure the victory. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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07-18-17 | Diamondbacks -126 v. Reds | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we think that Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks could/should easily be much larger ones: Ray: He’s 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA and most recently allowed a single run off five hits and four walks while striking out 13 in an unfortunate loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. To go along with his solid 2.97 ERA, Ray also sports a superb 12.0 K/9 and note that he’s been very sharp on the road thus far, going 4-1 with a tiny 1.34 ERA. Sal Romano: He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. He earned a win over the Rockies in his last start but is already 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Romano is clearly still unproven. Ray on the other hand is looking to close with his best campaign of his career to this point. As stated off the top, we feel this line could easily be a lot bigger. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-17-17 | Tigers v. Royals -140 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -140 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Kansas City Royals. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Jason Vargas and the home side could/should easily be much largers ones in this particular matchup: Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 5-7 with a 5.87 ERA. Zimmermann most recently gave up five runs off eight hits and a walk over three innings in an 11-2 loss to the Indians on Friday. Zimmermann struggled down the stretch in the first half by allowing 17 runs over his last 19.1 innings of work. Vargas: He’s 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA and has easily been the biggest surprise as far as pitchers are concerned over the first half. Note that he’s 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Zimmermann is 0-4 with a 6.99 ERA on the road. No need to over think this one, as stated off the top, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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07-16-17 | Rockies v. Mets -130 | 13-4 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets. New York has come out of the gates flying in the second half with two straight convincing victories over the Rockies. We think the home side keeps the foot on the gas in the finale of the series as well: Jeff Hoffman: He’s 5-1 with a 4.15 ERA. Hoffman gave up four runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Saturday. Steven Matz: He’s 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Matz comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Previous to that though Matz had looked fantastic by posting a 2.19 ERA over five starts. The bottom line: Momentum favors Matz, all things considered we feel this is a very fair price. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-17 | Indians -186 v. A's | 3-5 | Loss | -186 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting visitors could/should easily be much larger ones: Kluber: He’s 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA. Kluber gave up one run off three hits while striking out eight over five innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Tigers on Sunday. To go along with his stellar 2.80 ERA, Kluber also sports a tiny 0.99 WHIP. Paul Blackburn: He’s 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA. Blackburn earned his first big league win by allowing a single run off eight hits over 7.2 innings in a victory over the Mariners in Thursday. Blackburn has looked great over two starts, but we think that immediate regression is inevitable. The bottom line: The sky is the limit for Blackburn, but Kluber still gets the big nod from us on the mound tonight. We like the INDIANS to bounce back after last night’s defeat. AAA Sports |
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07-15-17 | Nationals -169 v. Reds | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we believe that Max Scherzer and the hard-hitting Nationals could/should easily be much larger ones: Scherzer: He’s 10-5 with a 2.10 ERA. Scherzer looked sharp in his All Star game starters role and ended the first half with spectacular numbers (0.78 WHIP and 173:27 K:BB ratio.) Note that he’s 7-2 with a 1.47 ERA on the road this year. Luis Castillo: He’s 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA. Castillo went six scoreless for his first major league victory over Arizona on Saturday. The bottom line: The sky is the limit for Castillo, but we feel that regression is imminent against the league’s No. 1 offense. There’s no reason to think that Scherzer won’t be completely prepared for this advantageous matchup, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -162 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Chris Sale and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Luis Severino: He’s 5-4 with a 3.54 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee Saturday. Severino has been serviceable this year, but he’s 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA on the road. Chris Sale: He’s 11-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale was briliant in two innings in the All Star Game and is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: Boston bettors were treated to a bottom of the night come from behind victory last night, but we don’t think we’ll have to sweat this one out. All things considered, we do indeed feel this is a great price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |