Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-18 | Padres v. Rockies -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Colorado looks to build off yesterday’s 8-0 win. Tyson Ross (2-1, 2.81 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. Ross gave up just one earned run over 7.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Ross has looked very sharp over his last two starts, but we’re not ready to proclaim that the veteran has returned to form quite yet though, as note that he was 0-2 with an 8.87 ERA on the road last year. And clearly that doesn’t bode well this afternoon pitching at hitter friendly Coors Field. The home side counters with Jone Gray (1-4, 7.09), who was 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA last year. Gray most recently gave up seven runs off eight hits in a 16-5 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Gray opened the season with a great debut, but he’s since been blasted for at least five runs in each of his last three outings. We’re not going to overreact though as we think Gray will get his numbers back under control, note that he was in fact 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA at home last year. Note as well that San Diego is just 1-5 (-4 units) already in day games this year, while Colorado is 67-54 (+14.6 units) in all day games the last two years. Lay the price, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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04-24-18 | Angels v. Astros -141 | 8-7 | Loss | -141 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 9* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros. We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. As good as Shohei Ohtani has been, both on the mound and at the plate this year, Charlie Morton isn’t getting nearly enough respect in our opinion, as the Astros’ veteran comes in on top form. Ohtani’s last start was cut short due to a blister issue and after he gave up three runs off four hits while striking out just one over two innings in a loss to the Red Sox. Morton (3-0, 0.72) is obviously due for regression, but there’s no reason to think that he won’t carry over his momentum, note that he has three scoreless outings of at least six innings and is striking out more than ten batters per nine frames of work. Morton was 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA last year, he had a strong spring and and everything points to perhaps his finest season ever. As mentioned off the top, we feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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04-24-18 | Diamondbacks +104 v. Phillies | Top | 8-4 | Win | 104 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05 EST). Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98 ERA) is coming off his best start of 2018 and we’re expecting the Diamondbacks’ southpaw to carry that momentum over here. Ray most recently held San Francisco to just two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision on Wednesday. Ray has not yet reached the form which saw him going 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA overall last year. He has to be feeling pretty confident here though, as note that he was 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with the equally as hot Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80), who after getting rocked in his debut, has since posted three straight quality outings to go along with an elite 20:3 K:BB in that span. Velasquez though was anything but consistent in this spot last season, going a poor 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home. The Phillies’ have struggled with offensive consistency thus far, while Arizona leads the majors in many offensive categories. We like Ray to at the very least match his counterpart today and in a situation like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-24-18 | Braves -127 v. Reds | 7-9 | Loss | -127 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Braves. Ultimately we feel that this line could/should be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 2.91) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks with six K’s over 5.1 innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. The home side counters with the erratic Tyler Mahle (1-3, 5.14) who gave up two runs off seven hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Mahle has been better at home than on the road, but note that the Reds have given him very little support. We’re banking on McCarthy continuing his hot start to the season and for the BRAVES to give him more than enough support for the victory against the volatile Mahle. Play on Atlanta. AAA Sports |
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04-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | 13-5 | Loss | -165 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Colorado Rockies. We feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell (0-2, 5.03 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. It was the first time in four tries that Mitchell has lasted into the sixth. To go along with his horrible 5.03 ERA, Mitchell also sports a ghastly 1.88 WHIP. The home side counters with Chad Bettis (3-0, 1.44) who comes in off a commanding victory at Pittsburgh, allowing no runs off five hits, while striking out three and walking two over 7.1 innings of work. Bettis will be feeling fresh today as he’d only need 85 pitches to get through his day. To go along with his strong 1.44 ERA, Bettis also owns a very respectable 1.08 WHIP. Note that San Diego is just 4-10 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters, while Colorado is 8-4 (+4.7 units) against right-handed starters. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in our opinion. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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04-22-18 | Indians v. Orioles +205 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Orioles. We think that Andrew Cashner and the revenge minded Orioles have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Baltimore lost 4-0 yesterday, but will look to bounce back with Cashner (1-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five in a no-decision against the Tigers on Tuesday. Cashner comes in on top form, having posted three-straight quilting starts (note that he owned a tiny 2.81 ERA in all day games last year and an even better 2.72 ERA in all home contests.) The visitors challenge with ace Corey Kluber (2-1, 1.52) who has also looked sharp to open 2018, having allowed just 16 hits over 29.2 innings of work to go along with a 33:6 K:BB. Clearly Kluber is back in Cy Young form, but as mentioned off the top, Cashner also comes in red hot. We think that Cashner can match Kluber deep into this one and in a situation like that, we absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry home dog. BALTIMORE in a big upset on Sunday afternoon. AAA Sports |
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04-21-18 | Nationals -114 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. The Nationals got some decent pitching out of ace Max Scherzer in Friday’s 5-2 road victory. We think that the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this matchup as well. The Dodgers had won four straight before yesterday’s setback and we’re expecting another letdown here as well from the home side. For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Both come in on top form. Strasburg’s ERA is elite, but his K/9 is down from years past. Ryu was blasted in his first start of the year, but he’s since put together back-to-back strong outings. Washington’s been great on the road thus far (7-3, +3.6 units), while LA has struggled at home (4-6, -6.9 units). We like Strasburg to match Ryu and in a scenario like that, we think the value swings to the hard-hitting visitors. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-21-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -190 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We like the hard-hitting home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (1-1, 5.73 ERA) who in his most recent action gave up four earned runs off seven hits while walking three and striking out three over five innings in a fortunate no-decision (including serving up two home runs.) Richard was a complete train-wreck in 2017 by going 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA overall and a terrible 1-8 with a 5.34 ERA on the road. Arizona turns to Zack Godley (2-1, 3.00) who comes in off an outing to forget as well, giving up five runs off five hits while striking out six over four innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Sunday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Godley over the last two years though and there’s definitely no reason at all not to think that he won’t bounce back right away (note that he was 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA at home last year.) Additionally note that SD is just 4-9 (-2.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is a near-perfect 8-1 (+8.3 units) against southpaws this year. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-21-18 | Mets -135 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Mets. We like the Mets to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win with their ace on the mound tonight. Jacob DeGrom (2-0, 3.24 ERA) comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Nationals on Monday, giving up three earned runs off six hits over 7.1 innings, striking out 12 and walking one. To go along wit his solid 3.24 ERA, note that DeGrom also owns an elite 1.08 WHIP. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (1-1, 5.40) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits with three walks while striking out nine over six innings. Teheran has been sharp as well of late, with back-to-back quality outings, but his ERA is still a hefty 5.40. Note that New York is 7-4 (+2.8 units) in all night games this year, while ATL is just 5-6 (-1.8 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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04-21-18 | Pirates v. Phillies -162 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies cruised to the 2-1 victory yesterday and we think the offer great value in this spot as well. Pittsburgh hands the ball to Steven Brault (2-1, 4.74 ERA), who most recently gave up five runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Monday. Brault struck out just one. Brault had an impressive debut, but since then he’s quickly come back down to Earth, getting rocked for nine runs over his last two outings. Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.22) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently took a loss after giving up two runs off four hits and two K’s over six innings against the Braves on Monday. Nola comes in on top form having now throw two quality starts in a row. We like the home side to build off yesterday’s win with what we believe to be the superior hurler on the hill for it in this matchup. Lay the price, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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04-21-18 | Indians -176 v. Orioles | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Cleveland Indians (4:05 EST). We like Cleveland to bounce back from yesterday’s 3-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (1-0, 2.70 ERA) who comes in on seven days rest, the result of two different postponements over the last week. In his previous outing he wasn’t spectacular, giving up four runs over four innings while striking out five in what turned out to be an 8-4 loss to the Blue Jays. With the extra time off to focus and prepare, we think Clevinger will bounce back nicely here, note that he was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Chris Tillman (0-3, 11.91) who was rocked for six runs off seven hits with two walks and no K’s in a loss to Boston on Friday. Tillman has now been shelled for 14 runs off 22 hits spanning 11.1 innings of work. After posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over 19 starts last season, it would appear that Tillman is even worse off this year. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the hard-hitting and revenge-minded visitors. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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04-20-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -191 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case we absolutely believe that Michael Wacha and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan (0-1, 10.38) who was rocked for five runs off six hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to these very Cardinals on Saturday. Wacha (2-1, 5.52) gave up three earned urns off five hits while walking three and striking out five over five innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Thursday. Despite grinding, Wacha still posted 11 swinging strikes, while keeping six of the ten balls he put into play on the ground. Note that Cincinnati is a terrible 2-13 (-10.5 units) against right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis 3-1 (+1.8 units) against southpaws. No upset here, lay the price. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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04-19-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -162 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Diamondbacks. We believe that this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to think. After yesterday’s 4-3 defeat, we like the home side to bounce back this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Ty Blach (1-2, 4.43 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Friars on Friday. To go along with his pedestrian 4.43 ERA, Blach also owns a poor 9:9 K:BB through 20.1 innings of work. Arizona counters with Zack Greinke (1-1, 5.29), who picked up his first win of the season against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up four runs and a walk while striking out seven over 6.1 innings. Greinke has the track record and pedigree to get his ERA back under control obviously and note that he already sports an elite 21:1 K:BB through 17 innings of work. In our opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Great value, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-18-18 | Royals v. Blue Jays -182 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto took both games of Tuesday’s double-header with the Royals and we believe that the Jays will make it three in a row with a clear advantage on the mound tonight. The visitors turn to Ian Kennedy (1-1, 1.00 ERA), who was 5-13 with a 5.38 ERA last year. Kennedy gave up one run over six innings in an unfortunate defeat to the Angels on Thursday. To this point Kennedy has been extremely sharp, but regression is imminent in our opinion, as note that the veteran was just 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the road last season (and 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA in all “day” games.) The Jays counter with JA Happ (2-1, 3.94), who was 10-11 with a 3.53 ERA last season. Happ comes in off his strongest outing of the year thus far, giving up one run off five hits and three walks while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over Baltimore on Monday. Happ comes in rested, the beneficiary of a couple extra days off because of postponement; note he’s got to be feeling confident here after finishing 6-4 with a 3.47 ERA in all “day” games last season. Note that KC is already just 2-5 (-2.1 units) in all “day” games this year, while Toronto is 3-1 (+2 units) in all “day” games. Lay the price, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-17-18 | Cardinals +115 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 115 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Neither starter has been overly impressive to start the year, but the numbers/trends support the visitors here. The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (0-2, 5.06 ERA), who comes in off a solid effort, albeit a loss, giving up three runs over seven innings of work while also striking out four against the Brewers on Wednesday. Tyler Chatwood (0-2, 4.91) was most recently hammered for five runs off nine hits in an 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. Note though that St. Louis is already 7-3 (+4 units) on the road this year, while Chicago is just 2-3 (-3.4 units) at home and only 1-5 (-7.8 units) following a victory. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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04-17-18 | Phillies v. Braves +101 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. The Braves pulled off the 2-1 home win as a slight dog yesterday and we think they offer great value in this spot as well. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (1-0, 2.70 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and no walks with seven K’s over seven innings in a no-decision against the soft-hitting Reds on Wednesday. Pivetta has looked good in back-to-back starts and he’s walked just one batter in that span, but note that he had 57 walks (3.9 BB/9) in a shaky 2017 which saw him go 8-10 with a ballooned 6.02 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (1-1, 2.93) who gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. It was a tough matchup and Foltynewicz was serviceable in the setback. Note that he was particularly effective in this spot last year by posting a respectable 3.95 ERA at home. Note that Philadelphia is already a terrible 5-6 (-2.1 units) against right-handed starters, while ATL is 8-5 (+5.6 units) against right-handed starters. The BRAVES are mashing the ball of late and we expect that trend to carry over here. AAA Sports |
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04-17-18 | Nationals -104 v. Mets | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. A couple of competent hurlers going head-to-head here, but we believe the hard-hitting visitors hold the upper-hand on the mound in this one. The Nationals hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 2.20 ERA), who comes in off a loss against the Rockies on Thursday, giving up three runs (two earned) off five hits while striking out seven over five frames of work. It was the first outing in which Gonzalez would give up a home run and it was his first game this year in which he’s allowed multiple runs to score. It was a hard-luck loss all things considered and there’s no reason not to think that the crafty southpaw won’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Mets counter with Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.29) who gave up one run off two hits over seven innings in a victory over the Marlins in his latest action. Beating the Fish is one thing, but clearly the Nationals (who own a .728 team OPS entering Friday), present an entirely different challenge. We look for Gonzalez to out duel his still unproven counterpart. Great price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-17-18 | Indians v. Twins +182 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. Clearly Corey Kluber is “the man,” but we feel that Jake Odorizzi has the ability to match his counterpart inning for inning today. In a game like that, we absolutely believe that the value swings to the dog. Kluber (1-1, 1.57) had his latest start pushed back because of inclement whether. With a 27:4 K:BB over 23 innings of work, it’s impossible to say anything negative about Kluber, so we aren’t going to bother. We simply feel its a bad spot, as Odorizzi (1-0, 2.20) who gave up one earned run off five hits while walking five and striking out four over six innings in a victory over Houston on Tuesday, comes in on top form as well. Note that Cleveland is just 1-3 (-3 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Minnesota is 4-2 (+3 units) against teams with winning records. This game is wing layer in Puerto Rico and we think the underdog TWINS offer fantastic value in the upset role. AAA Sports |
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04-17-18 | Rockies v. Pirates -139 | 2-0 | Loss | -139 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Off yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, I look for Pittsburgh to bounce back here in what we believe to be a very favorable pitching matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Chad Bettis (2-0, 2.04 ERA), who has so far looked good to open the year, most recently allowing one earned run while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Thursday. Despite his shiny numbers on the surface though, if we dig a little deeper and look at some of his peripherals, we see some major issues, including the fact that he’s only struck out four more opponents that he’s walked over 17.2 innings, while also posting a strand rate above 90 percent. The home side counters with Trevor Williams (3-0, 1.56) who gave up one run over six innings on Thursday in a victory over the Cubs, also going on to strike out five. After posting a serviceable 4.07 ERA last season and coming off a strong Spring, Williams looks poised to take the next step in his career. Note that Colorado is just 2-3 (-1.8 units) in its last five against clubs with winning records, while Pittsburgh is 4-0 (+4.8 units) this season following a loss. Great price, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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04-16-18 | Astros -116 v. Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Houston Astros. Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA) has yet to find his dominant form this year. Last season he was 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Keuchel lasted just four innings against Minnesota on Tuesday, giving up three runs off five hits while walking four and striking out six. The home side counters with James Paxton (0-1, 5.74), who after a disastrous opener has looked good in back-to-back outings, most recently giving up two runs off six hits over six innings, while also striking out ten. Paxton was 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and he looks poised for another productive campaign. Houston comes in off the 3-1 loss in the Sunday night game to the Rangers, but we think the defending champs will bounce back here. Note that the M’s are just 75-83 the last two years against winning team, while Houston is 90-79 against winning teams in the same span. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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04-14-18 | Diamondbacks +156 v. Dodgers | 9-1 | Win | 156 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think this pitching matchup is a “wash” and in a scenario like that, we’re going to back the undervalued underdog. The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (0-0, 3.27 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out three over six innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Sunday. Walkers has been consistent and we think he’ll be able to match pace with Dodgers’ starter Rich Hill (1-0, 2.70), who looked shaky in his last outing by given yup three runs off five hits while walking two and striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Saturday. Recent form suggests that Walker and the DIAMONDBACKS have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Great value, play on the visitors. AAA Sports |
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04-14-18 | Rangers v. Astros -193 | 6-5 | Loss | -193 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Houston Astros. We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor (1-1, 2.53 ERA), who gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a win over the Blue Jays on Saturday. Minor continues to defy the odds in many ways, but we think he’ll stumble here in this tough environment. The Astros turn to Charlie Morton (2-0, 0.00), gave up one unearned run off four hits and three walks while striking out seven over six innings in a 4-1 win over San Diego on Sunday. Morton is firing on all cylinders, with zero earned runs given up over 12 innings while striking out 13 and inducing 16 ground ball outs. Note that Texas is already a brutal 3-7 (-3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is a perfect 3-0 (+3 units) against right-handed starters. No letdown here, lay the price with confidence. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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04-14-18 | Braves v. Cubs -180 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 6* play on the Chicago Cubs. After falling 4-0 to the Braves yesterday, we like the Cubs to bounce back in a big way this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Sean Newcomb (1-1, 4.35), who struck out nine over six scoreless on his way to a victory over the Rockies on Sunday. Newcomb performed admirably at Coors Field after getting destroyed in his first start of the year. Note that he was 4-9 with a 4.32 ERA last year. The home side counters with Jose Quintana (1-1, 4.50), who comes in off a gem against Milwaukee on Sunday, going six scoreless in his teams 3-0 win, walking two and striking out six. Quintana was also rocked in his first start, but we expect the southpaw to now carry over his momentum. Note that ATL is just 2-6 (-3.7 units) in its last eight after shutting out its opponent, while Chicago is 5-2 (+3 units) in its last seven after getting shut out in its previous outing. All signs point to a rout, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-14-18 | Rockies v. Nationals -180 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Washington Nationals. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Jon Gray and the Rockies are in for a long afternoon on Saturday. Gray (1-2, 5.63 ERA) gave up seven runs off ten hits and one walk over five innings in a loss to San Diego on Monday. So far Gray has two extremely bad starts and one good one. The home side counters with Max Scherzer (2-1, 0.90) who went nine scoreless against the Braves on Monday. giving up two hits and striking out ten. Scherzer is coming off a song 2017 (16-6, 2.51) and all signs point to an even better 2018. After a lacklustre start to the year, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side on Saturday afternoon. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-13-18 | Blue Jays v. Indians -128 | 8-4 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Indians (10:10 EST). Marcus Stroman (0-1, 8.38 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) had a break out campaign in 2017 by going 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA. So far the hard-throwing right-hander has failed to live up to expectations this season though and we think that he’s getting entirely too much respect in this matchup. In his latest outing Stroman was rocked for five runs off six hits with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Saturday. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.71), who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last year. Clevinger most recently gave up one run off nine hits and two walks over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against KC on Sunday. Note that Toronto is just 105-110 (-31 units) the last two years in all “night” games, while Cleveland is 144-91 (+14.6 units) in all night contests. We’re banking on Clevinger outlasting his currently struggling counterpart and all things considered, we do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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04-12-18 | White Sox v. Twins -170 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Minnesota Twins. We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.17 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off four hit sand three walks in a 6-1 loss to Detroit on Saturday. So far over his first starts Giolito has walked seven and hit four batters spanning 11.2 innings of work. The colder weather seems to be affecting Giolito, which doesn’t bode well today throwing in Minnesota. The home side counters with Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.29), who also comes in off an outing to forget, given yup five runs off six hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to Seattle over the weekend. Despite the mediocre outing, Berrios still owns an elite 13:1 K:BB through his first 13.2 innings. We like Berrios to bounce back and out duel his struggling counterpart. Lay the price, play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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04-11-18 | A's v. Dodgers -181 | 16-6 | Loss | -181 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION is on the LA Dodgers. We’re not expecting any upsets here. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Mengden (0-2. 6.55 ERA), who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out two over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Rangers on Thursday. Mengden showed promise last year with a 3-2, 3.14 ERA, but so the third-year pro is struggling mightily this year. Alex Wood (0-1, 1.93) had his last start skipped over because of a stomach bug, but the southpaw have been given the green light tonight. Note that Wood has been sharp over 14 innings so far, posting 10 strikeouts and a 1.93 ERA and 0.50 WHIP. Throw in the fact that Mengden is going to be forced to bat tonight as well and we expect a complete blowout from start to finish. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | Diamondbacks +100 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MEMBER ONLY BONUS PLAY on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on the Diamondbacks last night and we think they offer pretty good value in this spot as well. Patrick Corbin (2-0, 1.38 ERA) went eight scoreless against the Dodgers in his latest win, giving up one hit and one walk while striking out 12. San Francisco counters with Tyler Beede, who makes a spot start here in place of Cueto. Beede posted a pedestrian 4.79 ERA over 19 starts in Triple-A last season. Note that Arizona is 5-2 (+3.2 units) this year following a win, while San Francisco is just 1-3 (-2.2 units) following a loss. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | A's v. Dodgers -146 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (1-1, 1.15 ERA), who so far has looked brilliant. Manaea most recently gave up one run off three hits and a walk over eight innings in a victory over Texas on Wednesday. Manaea was 6-3 with a 4.19 ERA at home last year, but just 6-7 with a 4.70 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-0, 7.36) who hasn’t thrown since April 3rd, when he gave up three runs off five hits over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks. Ryu was 5-9 with a 3.89 ERA last year, including 2-3 with a 3.48 ERA at home. Note that Oakland is already 0-3 (-4 units) against left-handed starters this year, while the Dodgers are 62-45 the last two seasons against southpaws. LA has struggled some, but we look for Ryu to bounce back here. Lay the price, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -155 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. After yesterday’s late 5-4 loss to Milwaukee, we expect the home side to bounce back in fine fashion with its ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (1-1, 6.30 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off eight hits and walking three in an 8-0 setback to the Cubs on Thursday. Suter showed plenty of promise last year with a 3-2, 3.42 ERA, but after consecutive shaky starts, we think his regression continues in this tough atmosphere. Martinez (1-1, 2.84) dominated these very Brewers in his last outing, going 8.1 scoreless frames, giving up just four hits and striking out ten in the process. Martinez has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he was 6-3 with a 3.23 ERA at home last season. No upset here, lay the price with confidence. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | Mets -200 v. Marlins | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the New York Mets. It would have to be a pretty major upset for Caleb Smith to get the better of Jacob DeGrom tonight, but we don’t foresee that happening. Smith (0-1, 4.32 ERA) most recently gave up three earned runs off two hits while walking six over three innings in a loss to the Phillies on Thursday. Only 40 of his 77 pitches entered the strike zone. Smith was extremely inefficient, needing 77 pitches to get through three frames. DeGrom (2-0, 1.54) comes in on top form, most recently giving up one earned run off four hits with three walks while striking out five over six innings in a victory over the Nationals on Thursday. DeGrom will now look to improve upon his elite 12:4 K:BB to open 2018. Note that New York is already 3-0 on the road this year, while Miami is only 2-4 at home. No upset here, lay the price with confidence, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-18 | Reds v. Phillies -175 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. We think Aaron Nola and the home side build off yesterday’s come from behind 6-5 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey (0-2, 4.22 ERA), who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Over his last three seasons Bailey has managed just 125.1 innings of work and in that time he’s posted a poor 6.21 ERA. Nola (0-0, 2.61) comes in off a sub-par effort himself, allowing two runs off four hits and four walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Wednesday, also going on to strike out four. Nola should be feeling pretty confident here as he was 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year. Note that Cincinnati is just 31-45 the last two season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia is 15-9 (+2.7 units) in the same span as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Play on PHILADELPHIA. AAA Sports |
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04-09-18 | Diamondbacks -130 v. Giants | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The visitors turn to ace Zack Godley (1-0, 1.29 ERA), who comes in off a dominant debut over Clayton Kershaw and LA, giving up one run off four hits over seven innings on Tuesday. After posing a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 155 innings last year, Godley looks ready to even better those numbers this season. Derek Holland (0-1, 5.40) was destroyed for five runs off three hits and three walks over five innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Saturday. Holland was a disaster last year by going 7-14 with a 5.99 ERA overall and he was horrible in all “home” games, going just 4-7 with a 5.32 ERA. Great value, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-09-18 | Padres v. Rockies -185 | 7-6 | Loss | -185 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Rockies. Off their 4-0 defeat at home to Atlanta yesterday afternoon, we like the Rockies to bounce back in this favorable pitching matchup. The Padres turn to Clayton Richard (0-1, 4.50 ERA) who comes in off a terrible outing, giving up five runs off eight hits and three walks over five innings to these very Rockies on Wednesday. Clayton was 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA last year and clearly a date on the road at Coors Field is not what the doctor ordered to try and get things turned around for the erratic veteran. Colorado’s Jon Gray (1-1, 2.45) went seven scoreless against the Padres on Wednesday, striking out seven over seven innings while scatting four hits. So far he sports an 11:3 K:BB and all signs point to another productive evening here in this one. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals -153 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Washington Nationals. Both starters come in off decent openers, but after four straight losses, including two in a row to the Mets, we’re expecting the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here. Matt Harvey (0-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he went five scoreless against Philadelphia in his debut. Harvey has been hit-or-miss the last couple of seasons and note that he was very bad on the road, going just 2-6 with a 7.14 ERA. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (1-0, 1.29) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out six in a win over Atlanta on Monday. Roark had an “up-and-down” 2017 as well, but note that the Nationals are 136-83 (+22.2 units) in all night games the last two seasons, while the Mets are 115-116 (-19.6 units) in all night contests in the same span. We’re banking on Roark out-duelling Harvey. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-08-18 | Reds v. Pirates -137 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 9* BIG TIGER on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both starters come in off decent debuts, but Jameson Taillon has the home field advantage today and we think that’ll be more than enough to propel him to victory over his counterpart today. The Reds send Tyler Mahle (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the hill and he would shutout out the Cubs over six innings on Monday. Mahle didn’t have the best spring, so it’s hard to 100% say where the second year pro is at the moment. Taillon (1-0, 3.38) struck out nine batters over 5.1 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Monday. Taillon was 8-7 with a 4.44 ERA last year, but he was fantastic in all day games, going 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Note as well that the Reds are just 1-3 (-1.9 units) already this year against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is 5-1 (+4 units) against right-handed starters. After yesterday’s defeat, we expect the PIRATES to respond on Sunday. AAA Sports |
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04-07-18 | Braves v. Rockies -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. After yesterday’s blowout loss, we like the home side to bounce back in this favorable matchup. The visitors turn to Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will make his first start of the year here. Sanchez was just 3-7 with a 5.76 ERA last year and he was poor on the road by going 2-4 with a 7.24 ERA. The home side counters with Chad Bettis (1-0, 3.60) who gave up two runs off five hits and four walks over five innings in a win over the Friars on Monday. Bettis has struggled at home, but we still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his erratic counterpart. Also note that ATL is just 2-6 (-4.6 units) in its last six after scoring eight or more runs in its previous outing. Play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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04-07-18 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +126 | 1-5 | Win | 126 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.20 ERA) underwhelmed in his season opener against the Yanks, giving up four runs over five innings in the eventual no-decision. The home side counters with Mike Minor (0-1, 3.86) who gave up two runs off three hits and five K’s over 4.2 innings in a loss against the Astros on Sunday. Minor struck out 88 in 77.2 innings with a 2.25 ERA last year and we expect him to match pace with his counterpart tonight. Note that Toronto is just 44-45 (-11.6 units) the last two years against southpaws, while Texas is 131-120 (+13.2 units) against right-handed starters in the same span. Play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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04-07-18 | Cubs -135 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Both starters looked terrible in their respective openers. Yu Darvish (0-0, 10.38 ERA) didn’t have his best stuff for the Cubs in his debut for his new team, giving up five earned runs off five hits over 4.1 innings while striking out four. Darvish though looked great in ins Grape Fruit time, posting a 2.79 ERA over 19.1 innings and suffice it to say, we’re expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to bounce back in a big way in this favorable matchup. The home side counters with Zach Davies (0-1, 9.53) who was rocked for seven runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Monday. Davies had a pedestrian spring and clearly his struggles have carried over. Note that Chicago is 56-26 (+17.2 units) the last two years as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Milwaukee is just 17-26 (-1.2 units) in the same span as a home dog of +125 to +175. Great value, play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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04-06-18 | Royals v. Indians -210 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. Danny Duffy (0-1, 11.25 ERA) is a shell of his former self and we think he’ll struggle in this hostile environment. Duffy gave up five earned runs and two walks over four innings in his debut against the White Sox on Thursday. Duffy entered the 2018 regular season off a poor spring and note that he was pedestrian in this spot last year by going 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA on the road and just 1-5 with a 4.60 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 7.94) gave up five earned runs off seven hits with no walks while striking out four in a fortunate win over Seattle on Saturday. Note that Carrasco had seven outings last year in which he allowed five or more earned runs, yet he’d still go on to finish with a very respectable 3.29 ERA. Note that Carrasco was great in this spot last year by going 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA at home and 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in all day games. Note that KC is just 2-16 (-12.4 units) in its last 18 as a road dog of +175 to +250, while Cleveland is 72-47 (+6.9 units) against southpaws. No letdown here as we expect Carrasco to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -114 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. Arizona sends Robbie Ray (1-0, 10.80 ERA) to the hill. Ray got the victory despite getting blasted for seven runs over five innings in the D-Backs eventual 9-8 win over the Rockies. Ray would go on to give up three dingers in that one. The home side counters with Adam Wainwright, who was 12-5 with a 5.11 ERA last year and who will make his season debut here. The veteran comes in off a strong spring and while he started the season off on the DL, he’s been given the green light here. Note that Arizona is just 33-39 (-4.9 units) the last two years on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while St. Louis is 7-2 (+4.2 units) in its last nine against southpaws. Play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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04-05-18 | Orioles +219 v. Yankees | 5-2 | Win | 219 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. We feel that Andrew Cashner and the Orioles offer great value at the outright upset in this one. Baltimore fell 3-2 in Houston last night, while New York beat the Rays 7-2. Cashner was a solid 11-11 with a 3.40 ERA last year, but he’s 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA after one game this season. Cashner was shelled for five runs in his team’s 6-2 loss to Minnesota, striking out five. Note that the veteran was 10-9 with a 3.54 ERA in all “night” contests last year. The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 1.50), who finished 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA last year. Tanaka looked sharp in giving up one run and striking out eight in a 4-2 win over the Jays on Friday. So far these teams have been polar opposites, but we’re not going to overreact to one bad start from Cashner, or one good one from Tanaka. BALTIMORE is hungry after a poor start to the season and we think it’ll come out on top on the National stage in the Big Apple. Play on the Orioles. AAA Sports |
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04-05-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -151 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phiilies. We think that Pivetta and the Phillies could/should be bigger favorites in this particular matchup, swinging the value onto the home side. The Fish turn to Caleb Smith (0-0, 1.69 ERA), who gave up one run off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Last year he had a 7.71 EAR over nine appearances with the Yanks. The home side turns to Nick Pivetta, who gave up three earned runs over four innings while striking out three and walking two in a 5-4 extra-innings victory over the Braves on Friday. Pivetta should settle down here and note that he was effective in this spot as a rookie last year as well by going 6-4 with a respectable 3.65 ERA in all “day” games. Additionally note that Miami is just 122-135 (-17.4 units) the last two seasons against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 41-38 (+21.2 units) against southpaws in the same time span. Lay the price, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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04-05-18 | Mets v. Nationals -145 | 8-2 | Loss | -145 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST). We had a play on the Nationals yesterday and their ace Max Scherzer came out flat and the end result was a 7-1 loss as a -190 favorite. New York comes in off a 4-2 home victory over Philadelphia. Jacob DeGrom is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, while Stephen Strasburg is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA. Clearly “on any given Sunday,” either of these elite hurlers could beat the other. We think this sets up as a letdown spot though for New York after its win last night, while clearly the Nats can’t be happy with their recent performance. The situation and the fair price make the NATIONALS the correct call here. AAA Sports |
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04-04-18 | Nationals -194 v. Braves | 1-7 | Loss | -194 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Washington Nationals. After falling 13-6 yesterday, we look for the Nationals to bounce back here with their ace on the mound. Max Scherzer (1-0, 0.00 ERA) went six scoreless against the Reds on Friday, giving up five hits and a walk while striking out ten in the 2-0 victory. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA last year and that included going 10-2 with a 1.82 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (0-0, 3.60) who gave up three runs over five innings in a 5-4 extra-innings loss to Philadelphia on Friday. Foltynewicz was 10-13 with a 4.79 ERA last year. Note as well that Washington is 22-5 (+11.6 units) in its last 27 as a road favorite of -175 or more, while ATL is just 4-15 (-7 units) as a home dog of +175 or more. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-03-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +157 | 1-6 | Win | 157 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Clearly Clayton Kershaw is the better pitcher in this matchup, but we don’t think that he should be as big of one in this particular matchup. The D-Backs will be eager to keep the momentum rolling here after last night’s 8-7 win over the Dodgers. Kershaw (0-1, 1.50 ERA) gave up one run off eight hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Thursday. Arizona counters with Zack Godley, who was 8-9 with a 3.37 ERA last year. His peripherals support his break out season as well (3.41 FIP and 3.32 xFIP) and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to match Kershaw inning for inning tonight. Additionally note that LA is already 1-2 (-2 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Arizona is 2-0 (+2 units) against southpaws. Great value, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-03-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -129 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. After falling 8-4 yesterday, we think the home side will bounce back in this favorable pitching matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who was 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA last year. In his final spring tune-up he’d allow an earned run off one hit over 2.2 innings to the Jays. Overall his Spring was poor though, posting a 4.60 ERA with four home runs over 15.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Chase Anderson, who was 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA last year. Anderson looked sharp in the Brewers’ opening day start, giving up no runs off one hit and three walks while striking out six against the Padres and note that he was great in this spot last year, going 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home. We think this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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04-02-18 | Cubs -137 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -137 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Cubs. We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Chatwood will be eager to post a big effort here for his new teams and he comes in off a fantastic spring in which he posted a 2.91 ERA with 23 K’s over 21.2 innings of work. The Reds’ Tyler Mahle was rocked in his final tuneup to the tune of six runs off ten hits over four innings against the Rangers and we think that it’s a sign of things to come for the second-year pro. Great price in our opinion, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-02-18 | Royals v. Tigers -108 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Tigers. Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but we believe that Francisco Lirinao’s strong spring gets carried over here. Note that Liriano posted a 2.25 ERA with 17 K’s over 16 spring innings. Jason Hammel gets the nod for the visitors and while he did finish his spring with a decent outing, allowing three runs off six hits over six innings while walking two in a no-decision to the Tigers, previous to that he’d gone 0-3 with 18 runs allowed over 12.2 innings of work. We’re banking on Liriano outdueling his counterpart. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-01-18 | Nationals -145 v. Reds | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. We this this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas wants us to think. Gio Gonzalez was 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA last year. In his final tune-up Gonzalez would give up one run off four hits and one walk over five innings while striking out three. Over ten spring innings Gonzalez would finish with a solid 6:2 K:BB. Note that Gonzalez was particularly effective on the road last year as well by going 11-5 with a 3.12 ERA. The home side counters with Sal Romano, who was 5-8 with a 4.45 ERA last year. Romano had a solid spring and posted a 4.4 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP with a 73:37 K:BB over 87 innings last year. Note that Romano was just 3-4 with a 4.91 ERA at home last year. No upset here, we look for Gonzalez to easily out duel his counterpart. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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03-31-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Diamondbacks. German Marquez was 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA last year, but regression seems imminent for the third year pro, who gave up 12 runs with five walks over 11 spring innings. Note that Marquez owned a pedestrian 4.97 ERA in all “night” games. Zack Greinke was 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA last year. Greinke looked dominant in his final spring outing, going six scoreless against the Tribe on Monday. Note that Greinke was particularly effective at home last year by going 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA. In our professional opinion, this line could/should easily be much larger. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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03-31-18 | Indians v. Mariners -104 | 6-5 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Seattle Mariners. These are two elite pitchers going head to head on Saturday afternoon. Carlos Carrasco was 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA last year. Carrasco suffered a foot contusion in his final spring start, and he looks poised for another big year here as well. James Paxton was 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA and he won his final spring start, giving up two earned runs, while striking out six in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Note that Paxton was great at home last year by going 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA. We’re banking on Paxton getting the better of his counterpart, using home field to his advantage. Play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports |
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03-30-18 | Astros -190 v. Rangers | 1-5 | Loss | -190 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Houston Astros. We had a play on Houston in its 4-1 win over the Rangers yesterday and we think the defending champs have a much bigger advantage tonight. In fact, we feel the talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to co-ace Dallas Keuchel who finished 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA last year. Keuchel threw 15 spring innings and posted a 2.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Note that he was great on the road last year by going 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA. Doug Fister was 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA last year for Boston. In 2016 Fister played on the Astros, so he missed out on last year’s Championship. Fister had a horrible season last year, a trend which carried over to spring where he would give up seven runs off 15 hits over 10.1 innings. We expect Keuchel to go deep, for Fister to get chased early and for the ASTROS to improve to 2-0 to open 2018. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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03-29-18 | Red Sox -161 v. Rays | 4-6 | Loss | -161 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Chris Archer had a poor 2016 and while he looked better last year, we don’t anticipate any sort of a letdown from Boston’s Chris Sale tonight. Sale had an up and down spring showing, but now that the “real thing” is here, we should expect to see his trademark filthiness on full display. Note that Sale posted a 2.90 ERA last year to go along with a career best 308 K’s. Archer had a 4.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 201 innings last year. Clearly both of these staff aces have something to prove this year, but Sale offers great value in this spot as we look for him to outlast his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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03-29-18 | Astros -159 v. Rangers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. A couple of veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one. Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros just won the World Series and they’ll be eager to prove that it was no fluke this season. Opening night and we expect Verlander to be focused on the task at hand. Verlander comes in on top form, most recently he gave up five singles and a walk while striking out three over seven innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. The Rangers’ Cole Hamels wasn’t quite as sharp as his counterpart this spring, giving up six runs over 13 spring innings. We like Verlander to out duel the still rusty Hamels. Lay the price, play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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03-29-18 | Cubs v. Marlins +180 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Miami Marlins. Looks like a good spot for an upset. Jon Lester isn’t getting any younger for Chicago. Lester did post a decent 2.81 ERA in five spring starts, but note the he had a 4.33 ERA overall last season (that includes a 5.42 ERA in all “day” games.) Jose Urena was 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA last year. Urena posted a weak 7:6 K:BB ratio over 7.1 spring innings, but note that he was particularly sharp in this position last year, posting a respectable 3.21 ERA at home, but going a “lights out” 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: Opening Day and almost anything can happen. Chicago’s line-up has once again gone through offseason changes, so we’ll call them a “wash.” We think these pitchers are a lot closer than what Vegas wants us to think as well, which shifts the value onto the underrated home side hurler. Great value, play on the MARLINS for the Opening Day upset. AAA Sports |
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03-22-18 | Tigers +120 v. Phillies | Top | 6-2 | Win | 120 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* SPRING TRAINING SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers. So far we’re 2-0 with our MLB MEMBER ONLY SPRING TRAINING PICKS and we’ll look to keep the good times rolling on Thursday afternoon as we pull the trigger on our first underdog play. We feel that Matt Boyd offers great value in this spot. Boyd is fighting for a spot in the rotation. Michael Fulmer and Francisco Liriano have already cemented their spots in the rotation, but Boyd, Jordan Zimmerman, Mike Fiers, Daniel Norris and Ryan Carpenter are all still fighting for a spot. And all have struggled so far except Boyd, who after getting roughed up over his first two starts, comes into this one with a 2-0 record, a 4.09 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Since those first two rocky starts Boyd has given up just one run over his last six innings. This is the spring debut of Phillies acquisition Jake Arrieta, who is still questionable at this point to be the Opening Day starter. Arrieta has stayed active throwing until now, but he’ll be on a limited leash. This one favors Boyd and the bigger bats of the TIGERS. Great price. AAA Sports |
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03-20-18 | Giants v. Royals -110 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Royals. MLB subscription clients were treated to a winner with Luis Severino and the Yanks on Saturday and we’re back with another Spring Training opportunity, this time one of the “pick em” variety though as confirmed “gas can” Jeff Samardzija will face off against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has pitched nine spring innings and has ten K’s, a 3.00 ERA and a sharp 1.33 WHIP. And that’s pretty much right in line with his career Spring Training stats, going 13-14 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Samardzija has so far thrown 11 spring innings and he has seven K’s, a 10.64 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. Samardzija has done decently in throughout his career in the spring, but at 33, “The Shark” isn’t getting any younger. We think Kennedy in his limited role offers great value in this spot. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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03-18-18 | Marlins v. Yankees -220 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Yankees. Early Bird MLB subscribers of AAA Sports always enjoy some spring training opportunities. They’re ready to kick off the 2018 season with a winner, this time they’re going to recommend to lay the price on what they predict to be a never in doubt laugher from start to finish. The Yanks send Luis Severino to the hill for this one. Severino has already been tabbed the team’s Opening Day starter in Toronto this year and he got his spring off to a great start on Thursday, going 3 1/3 innings, giving up an unearned run and three hits to the Phillies, in what turned out to be a 7-6 Yanks Grapefruit League loss. Severino though was sharp overall, walking one and striking out three, while throwing 34 of his 51 pitches for strikes. Severino finished 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 31 starts last year: “I just want to go out there and be the best version of Luis Severino that I possibly can," Severino said. "Same as last year. I will try to do my best and keep working on my stuff." Severino faces Marlins’ rookie Caleb Smith, who gave up one hit and four walks while striking out four over four scoreless frames against the Cards on Tuesday. Smith laboured at times, but he enters with an 11:7 K:BB through 11 spring innings. Smith was decent in Triple-A Scranton last year, but this will be his single stiffest of his career. Smith is in line for spot in the rotation, but we think Severino is the correct call here, even in his limited role (expected to get more innings this time around.) Lay the price, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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10-31-17 | Astros -109 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SPECIAL on the Houston Astros. With a chance to earn his first World Series title, we’re expecting Astros’ starter Justin Verlander to deliver the goods. So far he’s 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Astros may only be 2-5 on the road in the playoffs this year, but remember that one of those victories came at Chavez Ravine. Rich Hill counters for the Dodgers and he’s also been decent in the playoffs, posting a 0-0 record to go along with a 2.77 ERA by allowing four runs over 13 innings of work. Note though that Hill has not pitched more than five innings in any of his three starts. Verlander only allowed two hits to the Dodgers in Game 2 and is a man on a mission right now. We think the pressure is on Hill and the home side and we look for the Astros’ veteran hurler to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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10-24-17 | Astros +156 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Houston Astros. It would be easy to just pick the Dodgers here. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the World isn’t he? Is he? Dallas Keuchel is awfully good and we’re expecting the hard-throwing southpaw to match the Dodgers’ ace inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we absolutely feel that the value swings to the hard-hitting underdog to steal Game 1. Keuchel struggled in his last start against the Yanks in the ALCS, but was “lights out” in two previous playoff starts. Keuchel is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31.1 career postseason innings. Kershaw gave up one run over six innings in Game 5 of the NLCS, but overall he hasn’t been very sharp in the postseason, allowing seven runs over 17.1 innings of work (owns a career 4.40 ERA over 106.1 innings of playoff baseball.) The value is too good to turn down in our opinion. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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10-05-17 | Red Sox +107 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Boston Red Sox. As good as Justin Verlander has been for his new team, we still think that Chris Sale is in a class of his own. Before the season started we made a futures wager that the Red Sox would win the World Series. Sale was brought in for this exact moment and we’re fully expecting the hard-throwing southpaw to be at his best in this one. Sale: He finished the regular season 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA. He also had a 0.97 WHIP for the season to go along with 308 K’s in 214.1 frames of work. Verlander: He’s 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA. Verlander has a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 43 K’s in 34 innings since signing with the Astros. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three when playing with two or more days off, while Houston is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three when playing with two or more days off. We think Sale outduels Verlander. Great value, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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10-04-17 | Rockies +159 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WILD CARD GAME OF THE YEAR on the Colorado Rockies. We think that Jon Gray and the hard-hitting Rockies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. In this winner takes all scenario, we think the dog offers great value in this particular matchup. Gray: He’s 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Gray’s 3.17 FIP suggests his numbers are no fluke this season. Note that he was 5-3 with a 4.06 ERA on the road and 7-4 with a 3.56 ERA in all “night” contests. Zack Greinke: He’s 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA. Greinke finished with a 1.07 WHIP and 215 K’s over 202.1 innings this year. He was particularly sharp at home by going 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA. The bottom line: We’re going to call these starters a “wash.” Gray isn’t going to be phased in this “hitter friendly” park obviously and we think he can match Greinke inning for inning. And as we mentioned off the top, in a scenario like that there’s no doubt that the value swings to the undervalued visiting side. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees -210 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 59 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MONEY-CA$HER on the New York Yankees. Both pitchers have been superb of late, but Luis Severino has been downright filthy over the last month or so and we’re expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to get the better of his counterpart today. Ervin Santana: He’s 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA. Santana most recently went five scoreless, allowing just four hits and a K in a no-decision to the Indians on Thursday. Severino: He’s 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA. Severino most recently allowed one run while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Rays on Wednesday, going on to induce 18 swinging strikes and throwing 65 of his 91 pitches for strikes. Severino has now gone eight straight starts without allowing more than three run, posint a 1.99 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 64:13 K:BB spanning 49.2 frames of work. The bottom line: We don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this Wild Card scenario. Lay the price with confidence, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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09-29-17 | Reds v. Cubs -180 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Jose Quintana and the playoff bound Cubbies are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Robert Stephenson: He’s 5-6 with a 4.86 ERA. Stephenson most recently gave up four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Stephenson has been decent overall this season, but if he’s had one weakness, it’s clearly been his form on the road where he’s just a poor 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA. Quintana: He’s 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA. Quintana comes in off a complete-game gem against Milwaukee on Sunday, scattering three hits and striking out ten in the victory. Quintana has been far from perfect since coming over to the Cubs, but he does enter his last start of the regular season on top form, posting a tiny 1.63 ERA and 31:4 K:BB over four September outings (owns a very respectable 3.44 ERA in all “day” games as well.) The bottom line: Note that Cincinnati is just 14-27 (-7.5 units) in its last 41 against clubs with winning records, while Chicag is 32-15 (+5.4 units) in its last 74 against teams with winning records. We like Quintana to close out the season strong, to come in focused on the task at hand and to easily outduel his inconsistent, younger counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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09-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees -193 | 9-6 | Loss | -193 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Sonny Gray and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Jacob Faria: He’s 5-4 with a 3.32 ERA. Faria has been solid in his rookie year and is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA on the road. Gray: He’s 10-11 with a 3.31 ERA. Gray most recently allowed one run off four hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Saturday. Gray has been outstanding in three of his last four trips to the hill and he’ll now look to improve upon his very respectable 7-4, 3.48 ERA record in all home contests. The bottom line: Faria has been great, but clearly faces a stiff test facing Gray and the playoff bound Yanks. Lay the price with confidence, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -166 | 6-0 | Loss | -166 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Brandon Woodruff and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Homer Bailey: He’s 5-9 with a 6.96 ERA. Bailey most recently allowed four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out three over three innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday. To go along with his unsightly 6.96 ERA, Bailey also sports a hefty 1.75 WHIP and poor 6.8 K/9. Woodruff: He’s 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA. Woodruff most recently allowed four runs off five hits and three walks with four K’s over five innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Note that he owns a 3.74 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: Note that Cincinnati is just 27-47 (-9.4 units) on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 42-36 (+3.9 units) at home. We like Woodruff to outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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09-27-17 | Nationals -162 v. Phillies | 5-7 | Loss | -162 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Tanner Roark and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Roark: He’s 13-10 with a 4.41 ERA. Roark most recently allowed three runs while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to Atlanta on Thursday. He’s now given up two runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts. Mark Leiter Jr.: He’s 3-6 with a 4.69 ERA. Leiter most recently gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Thursday. Leiter has been hit or miss this year, so far his biggest downfall has been his propensity of giving up the “long-ball.” The bottom line: Note that Washington is 68-33 (+24.8 units) in all “night” games, while Philadelphia is just 37-65 in all night contests. We like Roark to finish up the regular season strong as he prepares himself for a deep playoff push. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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09-27-17 | Mariners v. A's -120 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland A’s. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Kendall Graveman could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup. Erasmo Ramirez: He’s 5-6 with a 4.35 ERA. Ramirez most recently gave up one run off three hits over eight innings in a no-decision against Cleveland on Friday. Note that he’s consistently been at his wost on the road this year by going just 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA. Graveman: He’s 6-4 with a 4.17 ERA. Graveman most recently allowed one run while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Graveman owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 20 frames this month and note that he’s 5-0 with a very respectable 2.79 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that Seattle is just 36-40 (-1.1 units) on the road this year, while Oakland is 45-34 (+13.2 units) at home. We think Graveman continues his incredibly sharp play at home and easily outduels his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the A’S. AAA Sports |
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09-27-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -180 | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Jon Gray and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Adam Conley: He’s 7-7 with a 5.74 ERA. Conley most recently was shelled for seven runs off six hits and a walk over only 1.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Arizona on Friday. Conley’s been better on the road than at home, but still owns a pedestrian 4.45 ERA away from friendly confines. Gray: He’s 9-4 with a 3.62 ERA. Gray comes in off a gem against the Padres on Friday, giving up one run off five hits and a walk over six frames while striking out eight in the victory. Gray has now allowed three runs or fewer in 12 straight starts while posting a 2.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 75:16 K:BB over 72.a frames. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA at Coors Field. The bottom line: Note that Miami is just 34-45 (-4.4 units) on the road this season, while Colorado is 43-33 (+2.3 units) at home. We like Gray to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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09-27-17 | Astros -185 v. Rangers | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Verlander: He’s 14-8 with a 3.38 ERA. Verlander has a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings since coming over to Houston (note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in all “day” games this season.) Nick Martinez: He’s 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA. Martinez most recently got rocked for four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Oakland on Friday. It was his first quality start this month. Note that he’s 1-1 with a ballooned 5.70 ERA at home. The bottom line: Note that Houston is 48-26 (+8.7 units) against division opponents this year, while Texas is just 32-38 (-2.7 units) against divisional foes. We like Verlander to close out the regular season strong with another concerted effort. Lay the price with confidence, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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09-26-17 | Nationals -146 v. Phillies | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -146 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Gonzalez: He’s 15-7 with a 2.68 ERA. Gonzalez most recently gave up two runs while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Atlanta on Wednesday. Gonzalez has been tough whether he’s been at home (4-3, 2.28) or on the road (11-4, 3.01) this season. Jake Thompson: He’s 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Thompson comes in off a no-decision against the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up one run over five innings. Thompson has looked decent in three starts back since re-joining the rotation (2.95 ERA), but he still posted a poor 5.25 ERA in 118.1 innings in Triple-A and his 5.95 FIP suggests that immediate regression is imminent. The bottom line: Note that Washington is 16-8 (+3.7 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 5-12 (-4.9 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. We like Gonzalez to continue his steady play to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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09-25-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -205 | 6-4 | Loss | -205 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Brett Anderson: He’s 3-4 with a 7.15 ERA. Anderson gave up eight runs off seven hits with two walks over 1.1 innings in a loss to Kansas city on Wednesday. After a couple of decent starts for his new team, Anderson has looked horrible of late. Pomeranz: He’s 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Pomeranz went 6.1 scoreless frames in an unfortunate no-decision against Baltimore on Tuesday. He’s now thrown three quality starts out of his last four tries (note that Pomeranz is 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA at home thus far.) The bottom line: Note that Toronto is just 43-56 (-21.6 units) this year in all “night” games, while Boston is 68-43 (+14.1 units) in all night contests. Lay the price with confidence, all signs point to a blowout for the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-24-17 | Indians -200 v. Mariners | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Kluber: He’s 17-4 with a 2.35 ERA. Kluber most recently gave up no runs while striking out nine over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. Kluber now has 22 staight scoreless innings and he has to be feeling pretty confident here, as not only is he 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA on the road, but he’s also 6-1 with a 2.13 ERA in all “day” games. Mike Leake: He’s 10-12 with a 3.91 ERA. Leake also comes in off a decent outing, giving up one run off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a no-decision against Texas on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Leake, as for the most part his numbers are solid across the board. We simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The bottom line: We have a hard time imaging Kluber not being completely focused on the task at hand. And with that being the case, that fact makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-22-17 | Rangers v. A's -127 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland A’s. Kendall Graveman has been dominant at home and we expect that to get carried over here. Nick Martinez: He’s 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA. Martinez has bounced in and out of the starting rotation, the bullpen and Triple-A this year. So far he has a 1.35 WHIP and poor 5.3 K/9 in the big leagues and note that he’s just 2-5 with a 5.31 ERA on the road. Graveman: He’s 5-4 with a 4.39 ERA. Over his last two starts spanning 8.1 innigns of work he’s given up just one run. Note that Graveman is 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA at home. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, as Graveman is getting zero respect whatsoever in this matchup. Great value, play on the A’S. AAA Sports |
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09-22-17 | Rockies -160 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Jon Gray and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much largers ones in this spot. Gray: He’s 8-4 with a 3.75 ERA. Gray most recently allowed zero runs over five innings while stirking out seven in a no-decision against these very Padres last time out. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.72 ERA in all “night” games. Jordan Lyles: He’s 1-3 with a 7.35 ERA. Lyles most recently gave up seven runs off eight hits while striking out one over four innings in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday. It was just his third start of the season and he now owns a 7.35 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 6.5 K/9. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one. Gray looks poised to finish the year with his best numbers ever, while clearly Lyles better days are behind him. Lay the price with confidence, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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09-22-17 | Indians -127 v. Mariners | 1-3 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that the Trevor Bauer and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Bauer: He’s 16-9 with a 4.41 ERA. Bauer comes in off a rare Indians loss, giving up four runs off nine hits while striking out six over six innings against the Royals on Friday. Bauer had won nine straight previous to that and it was just the second time in his last 22 outings that he’s given up multiple homers. Erasmo Ramirez: He’s 5-6 with a 4.56 ERA. Ramirez most recently gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out five over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Saturday. Ramirez had looked decent coming into this one, but once again regressed. The bottom line: The Indians are firing on all cylinders and Bauer has been as steady as they come in the second half. Lay the short pric, play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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09-22-17 | Angels v. Astros -162 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Garrett Richards: He’s 0-2 with a 2.00 ERA. Richards gave up two runs off two hits over five innings in a loss to Texas on Sunday. Richards has looked pretty good in his limited time so far this year and it’s hard to say too many negative things about him at this point. Other than the sample size is clearly to small at this point and that he also faces a very stiff test in this tough atmosphere. Justin Verlander: He’s 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Verlander beat the Mariners on Sunday, giving up one run off three hits with ten K’s over seven innings. Since coming over to his new club, the veteran has gone 3-0 while posting a 26:3 K:BB over 21 innings. The bottom line: No need to overanlayze this one. Richards is poised for regression, while Verlander is looking to catapult his team into a World Series run. Lay the price, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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09-22-17 | Yankees -159 v. Blue Jays | 1-8 | Loss | -159 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Both of these starters had big 2015’s and big 2016’s. Both of these starters struggled for most of the 2017 campaign, but each has looked a lot better in the second half. The Yanks Masahiro Tanaka though is in the midst of a playoff push and we believe he’ll find a way to get the better of the inconsistent Marco Estrada and the Jays tonight. Tanaka: He’s 12-11 with a 4.73 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs off eight hits while striking out eight over seven frames in the eventual victory. Tanaka had been lit up for seven runs over four innings by Texas previous to that, but before that he’d posted a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 through six starts. Tanaka has turned the corner and he’ll now look to improve upon his 10-5, 3.60 ERA record in all “night” games. Estrada: He’s 9-8 with a 4.84 ERA. Estrada just signed a big new contract and has posted a 3.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over four starts this month. Despite his recent uptick in play, note that he’s still owns a rather pedestrian 4.65 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Note that New York is 62-45 (+2.1 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Toronto is just 57-59 (-8.8 units) against right-handed starters. We’re banking on Tanaka to continue his hot play and to get the better of Estrada. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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09-21-17 | Cardinals -147 v. Reds | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Carlos Martinez and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Martinez: He’s 11-11 with a 3.57 ERA. Martinez was crushed by the Cubs in his last start for seven runs, giving up six in the sixth inning. He’s had mixed success against Cincinnati this year, but still sports a solid 3.72 ERA on the road and is 8-6 with 3.50 ERA in all “night” games. Homer Bailey: He’s 5-8 with a 6.86 ERA. Bailey gave up one run off five hits over five innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Friday. These types of performances are a rarity this year though for the veteran, who is just 1-5 with an atrocious 7.78 ERA at home thus far. The bottom line: Note that St. Louis is 48-33 (+6.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Cincinnati is just 27-39 (-3.6 units) against teams with winning records. Martinez doesn’t instill much confidence, but he’s been much more consistent than Bailey and we believe will be the more motivated hurler as well. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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09-20-17 | Dodgers -230 v. Phillies | 5-7 | Loss | -230 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Dodgers. Enough is enough for the Dodgers, who dropped a second straight to the lowly Phillis last night. Alex Wood: He’s 15-3 with a 2.69 ERA. Wood gave up no runs off three hits while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Nationals on Friday. Wood had scuffled a bit leading up to that gem, but looked great overall in that one and we’re fully expecting that momentum to get carried over here (note that Wood is 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA on the road this year.) Jake Thompson: He’s 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA. Thompson went 5.1 scoreless innings with six K’s in a victory over Miami on Thursday. Thompson has been all over the map this year as far as his game-to-game consistency (owns a 4.43 ERA at home.) The bottom line: I’ll point out that LA is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four after two or more consecutive losses, while Philadelhpia is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after two or more straight victories. We think Philadelphia comes into this one contended and we expect the desperate DODGERS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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09-19-17 | Diamondbacks -172 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -172 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We like the hard-hitting visiting side to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat as we expect Zack Godley to easily outduel his erratic counterpart. Godley: He’s 8-7 with a 3.00 ERA. Godley gave up five hits while stirking out seven with one walke over eight scoreless frames in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. He’s now posted three straight quality outings and note that he’s been very effective on the road this season with a highly repsectable 2.97 ERA. Travis Wood: He’s 3-6 with a 6.80 ERA. Wood most recently gave up nine runs off nine hits over 2.1 innings in a blowout loss to the Twins on Tuesday. The 30 year old has now been rocked for 15 earned runs over his past two starts (note that he’s been horrible at home as well by posting a 5.26 ERA.) The bottom line: Note that Arizona is 49-32 (+8.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while San Diego is just 29-49 (-4.1 units) against teams with winning records. We love Godley to easily outduel Wood. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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09-19-17 | Indians -102 v. Angels | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball right now. It won 22 straight and the lost to the Royals, only to then bounce back immediately and win the following night, ultimately grabbing three of four over KC over the weekend. LA took two of three from the Rangers, but does enter off a loss. Mike Clevinger: He’s 10-5 with a 3.21 ERA. Clevinger could arguably be the hottest hurler in the game right now, most recently allowing three runs (just one earned) while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Clevinger has now won four straight while giving up just one earned run, while sporting a 28:8 K:BB in that span (note that he’s 6-3 with a 2.56 ERA on the road this year.) Skaggs: He’s 2-5 with a 4.37 ERA. Skaggs also comes in off a strong outing, going seven scoreless against Houston on Wednesday. Skaggs has put together back-to-back decent outings, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA at home this year (and just 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in all “night” games.) The bottom line: Note that Cleveland is 14-10 (+1.2 units) this year when playing with a day off, while LA is just 5-10 (-3.7 units) when playing with a day off. This is great value, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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09-19-17 | White Sox v. Astros -215 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Colin McHugh and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Lucas Giolito: He’s 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA. Giolito most recently gave up one run over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Wednesday. in his previous outing he’d been destroyed for five runs over five innings. For the most part Giolito has been solid this season, but note that he’s still 0-2 with a poor 5.56 ERA in all “night” games. McHugh: He’s 2-2 with a 3.61 ERA. McHugh last started on September 8th and has been out due to a fingernail issue. And that’s now been resolved. Previous to this latest off field setback, McHugh had been on fire, posting a minuscule 0.54 ERA and sharp 1.08 WHIP spanning three outings (note that he’s 1-0 with a 0.54 ERA at home thus far.) The bottom line: Note that Chicago is just 2-5 (-2. units) this year after getting shutout in its previous contest, while Houston is 21-10 (+8 units) after three or more consecutive victories. We love McHugh to easily outduel his still raw and untested counterpart and for the Astros to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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09-19-17 | Dodgers -155 v. Phillies | 2-6 | Loss | -155 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. We like the Dodgers to bounce back off yesterday’s 4-3 defeat. Yu Darvish: He’s 9-12 with a 4.08 ERA. Darvish posted a 9.48 ERA over three straight defeats before bouncing back with seven shutout innings over the Giants on Wednesday, striking out five in the process. Darvish faces the Phillies tonight and the Padres next, two teams which rank in the bottom of the league in wOBA (note that Darvish has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 6-4 with a 2.59 ERA on the road this season.) Aaron Nola: He’s 11-10 with a 3.60 ERA. Nola comes in off a gem against the Marlins on Wednesday, giving up one run while striking out 11 over seven innings. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola as his numbers are solid across the board. We simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander. The bottom line: Despite yesterday’s setback the Dodgers are still 53-19 (+18.9 units) against teams with losing records this year, while Philadelphia is just 21-37 (-8.2 units) against teams with winning records. We like Darvish to match Nola and for the DODGERS to bounce back. AAA Sports |
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09-19-17 | Red Sox -108 v. Orioles | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. We truly believe that Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting visting side should be a big favorite in this particular matchup. Pomeranz: He’s 16-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Pomeranz most recently held the A’s to one run off five hits and three walks with five K’s over six frames in the victory on Thursday. Note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road this season by going 7-3 with a 3.45 ERA thus far. Kevin Gausman: He’s 11-10 with a 4.83 ERA. Gausman most recently gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over Toronto on Wednesday. Previous to that though Gausman didn’t even last three innings against the Yankees. To go along with his poor 4.83 ERA, he also owns a 1.56 WHIP and note that he’s just 4-5 with a ballooned 5.03 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 39-27 (+2.7 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is 34-45 (-9.6 units) against teams with winning records. We like Boston to build off yesterday’s extra innings victory, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-18-17 | Mets v. Marlins -154 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Marlins. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Dan Straily could/should easily be a much larger one in this particular matchup. Matt Harvey: He’s 5-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Harvey gave up five runs off seven hits and four walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. Since returning from the DL over three starts Harvey has pretty much been a complete disaster, note that he’s just 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA on the road thus far. Dan Straily: Hes’ 9-8 with a 3.95 ERA. Straily comes in off an outing to forget, giving up eight runs off 13 hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Over 29 starts this year, Straily has allowed over four runs just twice and this last outing was one of those. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Straily fan, he’s been above average all year, especially at home where he’s a very respectable 4-3 with a 3.27 ERA. The bottom line: Both teams are struggling as we head towards the finish line, however for us this one clealry comes down to the starting pitching. Harvey has shown nothing whatsoever which would indicate that he’s going to suddenly be able to “flip a switch.” Harvey’s recent form suggests another long night is ahead of him. Lay the price with confidence, play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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09-15-17 | Diamondbacks -149 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting visting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Ray: He’s 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA. Ray comes in off a win against San Diego on Sunday, giving up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out 12 over six innings. This was Ray’s third straight double-digit strikeout performance and he now owns a massive 45:6 K:BB over his last 25.1 frames of work. Note that he’s 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA on the road thus far. Jeff Samardzija: He’s 9-13 with a 4.47 ERA. Samardzija gave up six runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Saturday, also striking out six. The Shark has now been rocked for 28 home runs in 29 starts this year (is just 5-5 with a 4.02 ERA at home this season.) The bottom line: No need to overanlayze this one. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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09-15-17 | Mariners +110 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. We like the M’s to pull off the slight upset here. James Paxton: He’s 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA. Paxton has had a month off on the DL and will come back into the one refreshed. The Astros are clearly a very dangerous team, but they aren’t the same club as they were at the start of the season when they were completely tearing the cover off the ball on a nightly basis. Paxton’s numbers are solid across the board and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be on top form here (note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA on the road and 8-2 with a 3.12 ERA in all “night” games.) Charlie Morton: He’s 11-7 with a 3.86 ERA. Morton comes in off a loss against the A’s on Saturday, allowing three runs over six innings. Morton has been sharp across the board, but we think he’s going to run into a buzzsaw here. The bottom line: Note that Houston is a poor 18-22 (-13.8 units) against southpaws this year, while Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten against right-handed starters. We like Paxton to outduel Morton. Great value, play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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09-15-17 | Mets v. Braves -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. We look for Atlanta to take care of business at home. Rafael Montero: He’s 5-9 with a 5.05 ERA. Montero most recently gave up one run over five innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Reds on Saturday. Montero has looked a bit better of late, but overall his control has bene shaky (note that he’s just 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in all “night” games.) Sean Newcomb: He’s 2-8 with a 4.38 ERA. Newcomb gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out five over five innings in a victory over Miamin on Thursday. Over his previous eight outings the rookie posted a solid 3.83 ERA and 10.2 K/9. The bottom line: New York is just 5-8 (-4.1 units) in September, while Atlanta is 7-5 (+4.2 units) this month. These teams are moving in opposite directions. We look for Newcomb to outduel Montero. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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09-15-17 | Orioles v. Yankees -235 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Luis Severino and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Gabriel Ynoa: He’s 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA. Ynoa earns another spot in the rotation after a decent outing against the Tribe on September 9th, giving up three runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings. He was on a pitch count in that one and he’s also expected to be on one for tonight’ contest as well (is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA on the road.) Severino: He’s 12-6 with a 2.96 ERA. Severino gave up one run off one hit and three walks while striking out ten over seven innings in a no-decision against Texas on Saturday. Severino has now allowed just 17 hits while striking out 45 spanning his last 32.2 innings of work (is 6-5 with 3.83 ERA at home and 10-4 with a 2.42 ERA in all “night” games.) The bottom line: Note that Baltimore is just 45-54 against right-handed starters, while New York is 57-44 against right-handed pitchers. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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09-14-17 | A's v. Red Sox -205 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. We lost our big RUN-LINE “GOM” play on the Red Sox last night as they’d go on to lose 7-3 outright. We’re back on the horse though on Thursday as we expect Drew Pomeranz to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart: Daniel Gossett: He’s 4-8 with a 5.02 ERA. Gossett comes in off a decent outing against the Astros on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings. In his previous start though he gave up five walks in 3.2 innings. Note that Gossett has been at this worst on the road this year with a 3-5, 5.17 ERA record. Pomeranz: He’s 10-5 with a 3.35 ERA. Pomeranz gave up two runs off two hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Tampa Bay on Friday. Pomeranz had admittedly been scuffling a bit leading up to this gem, but note that he’s been dominant at home al year, going 8-2 with a 3.24 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Oakland is just 16-23 (-4.6 units) against southpaws this year, while Boston is 65-45 (+9.5 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-12-17 | A's v. Red Sox -169 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). Sean Manaea has been decent of late, but we think it’s the wrong place at the wrong time tonight for him and the visiting A’s. Manaea: He’s 10-9 with a 4.33 ERA. Manaea comes in off a win against the Angels on Wednesday, going six scoreless. As mentioned off the top, Manaea has been strong over the last month, but despite that, note that he’s still just 4-6 with a pedestrian 4.46 ERA on the road. Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA. Rodriguez also went six scoreless while striking out eight against Toronto on Tuesday, unfortuante to receive a no-decision for his effort after the Red Sox won in 19 innings. The bottom line: Note that Oakland is just 11-21 (-5.1 units) as a road dog between +125 and +175, while Boston is 14-2 (+10.4 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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09-11-17 | Dodgers -167 v. Giants | 6-8 | Loss | -167 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we absolutely believe that Kenta Maeda and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much largers ones in this particular matchup. Maeda: He’s 12-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Maeda has a 3.42 ERA and an elite 10.1 K/9 over nine starts since the All Star break. Note that Maeda is 9-2 with a 2.89 ERA in all “night” games this year. Chris Stratton: He’s 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA. Stratton gave up three runs off eight hits and three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against Colorado on Monday. Stratton has admittedly been better of late, but note that he’s still a poor 1-1 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: The Dodgers are desperate to turn things around and hit the postseason on a surge and here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. We expect Maeda to outduel his inconsistent counterpart, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | Houston Astros - Game #2 -175 v. Oakland Athletics - Game #2 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Houston Astros (7:35 EST). Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Brad Peacock and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Peacock: He’s 10-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Peacock remains in the rotation one more time before Dallas Keuchel returns. So far he’s done well in a starters role, posting a 3.34 ERA and 115 K’s over 89 innings of work. Note that he’s 6-0 with a 2.93 ERA on the road. Daniel Mengden: He’s 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA. Mengden has been recalled from Triple A to join the rotation out of necessity. He posted a poor 6.50 ERA in his 14 big league starts last year and was shelled for nine runs over two outings earlier this season (is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA on the road.) The bottom line: Note that Houston is just 68-32 (+23.6 units) against right-handed starters, while Oakland is just 44-58 (-10 units) against right handed starters. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | Yankees -157 v. Rangers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST). Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Luis Severino and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. Severino: He’s 12-6 with a 3.03 ERA. Severino gave up one run off two hits and zero walks while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Sunday. Severino now sits in the Top 10 for WHIP (1.07), FIP (3.12), K-BB% (22.5) and strikeout rate (29%). Note that he’s been at his best on the road as well this year by going 6-1 with a tiny 2.32 ERA. Andrew Cashner: He’s 9-9 with a 3.29 ERA. Cashner gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Braves on Monday. Granted Cashner has looked pretty good of late, but we simply feel that he’s up against the wrong opponent at the wrong time. The bottom line: We’re giving Serverino the slight nod on the bump in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the playoff hopefull YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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09-08-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -185 | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup. German Marquez: He’s 10-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Marquez most recently gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Marquez has been better than Colorado could have possibly asked for before the season started, but note he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.85 ERA in all “night” games this year. Darvish: He’s 8-11 with a 4.09 ERA. Darvish enters off an outing to forget against the Padres on Saturday, allowing five runs off eight hits over three innings (also striking out five.) We’re not reading too much into one lousy outing though, Darvish had given up three runs or fewer in each of his previous four starts for the Dodgers. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is just 42-46 (-7.2 units) in all “night” games this year, while LA is 66-35 (+11 units) in all night games. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-17 | Astros -165 v. A's | 8-9 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Colin McHugh and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. McHugh: He’s 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA. McHugh most recently gave up one unearned run off four hits and two walks while striking out three over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Texas on Thursday. It was just the first time that he’d failed to throw into the six frame since returning from the DL in mid July. To go along with his solid 3.25 ERA, McHugh also owns a 1.24 WHIP and decent 8.5 K/9. Jharel Cotton: He’s 7-10 with a 5.53 ERA. Cotton most recently gave up four runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Mariners on Saturday. Cotton owns a poor 1.46 WHIP over 114 innings of work and has been horrible at home by going just 3-6 with a 7.09 ERA. The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that McHugh could in fact be a much larger fav in this matchup. Play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-17 | Yankees -145 v. Rangers | 5-11 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Masahiro Tanaka and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Tanaka: He’s 11-10 with a 4.54 ERA. Tanaka gave up a single run off five hits and two walks while striking out three over seven innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Saturday. Tanaka is now hitting his stride to end the season, having posted three straight decision and going exactly seven frames in each while giving up a total of only five runs combined. Note that he’s been at his best in all “night” games by going 9-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martin Perez: He’s 11-10 with a 4.87 ERA. Perez has been decent of late, having posted six straight victories, most recently allowing three runs off nine hits over six innings against the Angels on Sunday. Note though that he’s just 5-6 with a 4.99 ERA in all night contests this year. The bottom line: Note that New York is 23-20 (+1.1 units) against southpaws this year, while Texas is just 50-55 (-4.9 units) against right-handed starters this season. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-08-17 | Rays v. Red Sox -127 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Both pitchers have been great this yera. Chris Archer though exited his last start after throwing only eight pitches, a stretch in which he served up two home runs. He’s been cleared to go tonight, but we think Pomeranz has the advantage at home. Archer: He’s 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA. Archer looks to get back on track after his minor shoulder injury, but note that he owns a poor 4.56 ERA on the road this year. Drew Pomeranz: He’s 14-5 with a 3.36 ERA. Pomeranz looks to get back on track himself after allowing four runs off eight hits while striking out five over six innings in a setback to the Yankees on Saturday. Pomeranz has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here as he’s been dominant at home this season with a 7-2, 3.26 ERA record. The bottom line: The Rays are just 14-15 (-1 unit) in their last 29 against clubs with winning records in the second half, while the Red Sox are 14-11 (+1.3 units) in their last 25 against teams with winning records. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |