Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-19 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 133 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TEX@OKST to go Under the total. Texas has won back to back games to start conference play, including a 20 point win on the road at Kansas State. They face an Oklahoma State team tonight that really struggles to do anything on offense, and I like Texas to remain undefeated in the BIG12. The Cowboys have lost both their games against BIG12 teams, and that includes a home loss to Iowa State. If there is one thing the Cowboys do well, it's strong play on defense. They have held opponents to 63.7 points per game in Stillwater. That might not be good enough against a Texas team that has allowed just 57 points per game in their last five overall. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-08-19 | Texas -3 v. Oklahoma State | 58-61 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Texas Longhorns. Texas has won back to back games to start conference play, including a 20 point win on the road at Kansas State. They face an Oklahoma State team tonight that really struggles to do anything on offense, and I like Texas to remain undefeated in the BIG12. The Cowboys have lost both their games against BIG12 teams, and that includes a home loss to Iowa State. If there is one thing the Cowboys do well, it's strong play on defense. They have held opponents to 63.7 points per game in Stillwater. That might not be good enough against a Texas team that has allowed just 57 points per game in their last five overall. Take TEX. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-06-19 | Memphis v. Houston UNDER 147 | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
10* |
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01-05-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 144 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on OKST@OKLA to go Under the total. I bet on the under in the Cowboy's last game, a home loss to Iowa State by a score of 69-63. Here is what I said prior to tip off: "The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been terrible this season, especially on offense. They have averaged just 66 points per game over their last five overall, and that includes games against Houston and Nebraska that they scored 53 points and 59 points. The good news is that they have been pretty tough on defense, particularly at home. They are allowing just 62.6 points per game on 37.9 percent shooting at home. They have failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The under is 35-17-1 in their last 53 home games. The under is 10-4 in the Cyclones last 14 overall. This will be the first game of conference play for both teams, and I don't think either team is going to give up many easy buckets." Oklahoma is better defensively than the Cyclones, so I can't see this game being very high scoring. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-05-19 | Maryland -3.5 v. Rutgers | 77-63 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Maryland Terrapins. Rutgers has come crashing back to reality after an encouraging start. The Scarlet Knights won five of their first six games, and then they faced tough opponents from the BIG10. What followed was consecutive losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin. They host Maryland today, a team that they have lost six straight to, only covering the spread twice in those games. The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, while the Scarlet Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. I'll take the road favorite here to win outright. Take MD. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-05-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio is 7-0 at home so far, and the Bobcats have won four straight head to head meetings versus Northern Illinois. They have won all three home games during that span by a double-digit margin. The Huskies have lost four of their five road games so far, and they have allowed opponents to average over 81 points in those games. The Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus MAC teams. This Northern Illinois team finished dead last in the MAC last year, and they were 1-13 on the road. They should be a far bigger underdog here in Ohio. Take OHIO. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-19 | St. Mary's v. San Francisco -2.5 | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco Dons. The Dons are off to a great start, coming into tonight's home game with a 12-2 overall record. They are 8-0 at home, and they won their last home game versus St. Mary's by a score of 70-63. The Gaels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games versus teams with a winning home record. They have covered only once in their last seven games against teams from the WCC. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and that's a trend that I expect to hold true here tonight. Take SF. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-19 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 152.5 | 70-86 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on IOWA@PUR to go Under the total. The Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked #20, but they are a big underdog on the road versus unranked Purdue. That's because these Boilermakers are a monster at home. Purdue has won all six home games, and allowed an average of 61.2 points in those games. The home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Purdue. The under is 15-6-1 in Boilermakers last 22 versus BIG10 teams, and both their previous two games versus BIG10 teams this season went way under. They beat Maryland 62-60 and lost 76-57 at Michigan. I think the total here appears to be a little too high. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-19 | NC State v. Miami-FL UNDER 157.5 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NCST@MIA to go Under the total. The last time these two teams played, it was a blowout with Miami winning 86-81 on the road. The last time the Hurricanes played NC State at home, they won by a score of 81-63. In fact, the Wolfpack have averaged just 62.5 points per game in their last four visits to Miami, and none of those games saw more than 152 total points. Miami is 6-1 at home, and they have allowed an average of just 62.4 points in those games. The Canes have failed to reach the total in five of their last six overall, and the under is 37-18-1 in Miami's last 56 home games. The total for tonight's game is more than 10 points higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings. I'll fade the inflated number. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-19 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 147 | 69-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on ISU@OKST to go Under the total. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been terrible this season, especially on offense. They have averaged just 66 points per game over their last five overall, and that includes games against Houston and Nebraska that they scored 53 points and 59 points. The good news is that they have been pretty tough on defense, particularly at home. They are allowing just 62.6 points per game on 37.9 percent shooting at home. They have failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The under is 35-17-1 in their last 53 home games. The under is 10-4 in the Cyclones last 14 overall. This will be the first game of conference play for both teams, and I don't think either team is going to give up many easy buckets. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-18 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -3.5 | 74-76 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Seton Hall Pirates. The 12-0 St. John's Red Storm haven't yet faced any tough opponents, but playing on the road at the Prudential Center will allow us to find out just how good this team really is. The Pirates are 9-3 overall and just 4-2 at home, but they have had a far tougher schedule than St. John's. High profile wins have come against the likes of Kentucky and Miami, while high profile losses came against the likes of Louisville and Nebraska. Home court has been key in this series, and the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Pirates have won four of the last five head to head meetings, and they are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Take HALL. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-18 | Kentucky v. Louisville +1.5 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Louisville. Kentucky is coming off an 80-72 win over North Carolina at the United Center, but I think this sets them up for a let down in their first true road game at Louisville. The Cardinals are 8-0 at home, and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Louisville has been impressive on defense holding opponents to just 61.2 points on 37.8 percent shooting in their last five games. The Cardinal beat Michigan State 82-78 at home earlier this season, and they won that game at the free throw line. They hit 30-of-41 attempts and hit six of eight attempts in the final 30 seconds of overtime. Home court has been key in this series, and I'll take Louisville as a home dog here today. Take LOU. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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12-28-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Northern Kentucky UNDER 146.5 | Top | 77-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDPU@NKU to go Under the total. The Norse are a strong team on defense, allowing just 65 points per game this season, and allowing just over 62 points per game at home. Northern Kentucky has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six home games, and tonight's number is far higher than it was in most of those previous contests.These teams have played in each of the last two seasons, playing low scoring games with INDPU failing to reach 60 points in both games. INPU has failed to reach the total in four straight versus teams from the Horizon, while Northern Kentucky has gone under in 13 of it's last 16 as a home favorite. This total appears to be 5-6 points higher than it should be. Take UNDER. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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12-22-18 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNC Tar Heels.
Two of the top teams in the country will face off in Chicago on Saturday, and I like the ACC team here against the big dog from the SEC. Kentucky got crushed by Duke in their season opener, and has since lost to unranked Seton Hall. The Tar Heels last loss came on the road at #7 ranked Michigan, but two of their last three wins have come against ranked teams (UCLA and Gonzaga). Kentucky is 3-9-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between the two teams. North Carolina has had little trouble with SEC teams, going 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 versus the SEC. The Tar Heels scored 103 points in a double digit win over #4 ranked Gonzaga last Saturday, and they beat #17 ranked UCLA by 16 points at the end of November. Senior guard Cameron Johnson has scored 45 points on 15-of-26 shooting in his last two starts, and I expect him to have a big game here against the Wildcats. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-18 | Clemson v. South Carolina UNDER 145 | 78-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on CLEM@USC to go Under the total. The 8-3 Clemson Tigers will be a slight favorite on the road at South Carolina on Saturday. The 4-6 Gamecocks are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Clemson beat the Gamecocks in each of the last two seasons and the Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus SEC teams. The trend that I think is even more significant is that these two teams have failed to reach the total in nine straight meetings. Now given the history, it certainly seems odd that tonight's total is almost 10 points higher than it was in any of the previous nine meetings. Clemson has failed to reach the total in 22 of it's last 30 versus SEC teams, and the Gamecocks have gone under in nine of their last 11 versus ACC teams. South Carolina has gone under in nine straight versus teams with a winning record.
Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Northern Kentucky UNDER 149 | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on NIU@NKU to go Under. This will be the second meeting between Northern Kentucky and Northern Illinois, and the first meeting was tied at 65-65 at the end of regulation. They went on to play double overtime, with the Norse winning by a score of 88-85. We should expect a far lower score here tonight (barring overtime). The Norse are a strong team on defense, allowing just 65 points per game this season, and allowing just over 62 points per game at home. Northern Kentucky has failed to reach the total in four of it's last five home games, and tonight's number is far higher than it was in any of those previous contests. They should shut down the Huskies here at home, and I think this number is grossly inflated, perhaps because of the high score in the last meeting. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech +10 v. Duke | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Texas Tech. The #2 ranked Blue Devils have only lost once this season (89-87 vs Gonzaga), and they played a close game in a 78-72 win over Auburn. They opened as a 7.5 point favorite for tonight's neutral site game versus Texas Tech and MSG, but they have since been bet up to a double digit favorite. The Red Raiders come undefeated at 10-0, and while they haven't played any ranked teams, they do have an experienced squad with two seniors in the starting five. Texas Tech made it to the Elite Eight in last year's NCAA Tournament, beating the likes of Purdue and Florida before losing to Villanova. The Red Raiders rank 1st nationally in opponent's scoring average as well as opponent's field goal percentage. They could make life tough for Duke's talented freshman. I'll take the points. Take TTU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-18 | Auburn v. NC State -108 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The #7 ranked Auburn Tigers will play their first road game of the season tonight, and it's not going to be easy. The NC State Wolfpack are 9-1, and 7-0 at home. They have beaten the likes of Vanderbilt (by 15) and Penn State (by 11). Auburn has failed to cover in three straight, and the Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Last year the Wolfpack finished sixth in the ACC, behind five teams ranked in the Top 25 (Duke, UNC, Clemson, UVA and MIA). They were 16-3 at home, which included a 96-85 win over #2 ranked Duke. I'll take the Wolfpack here at home against a ranked team from the inferior SEC. Take NCST. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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12-18-18 | North Texas v. New Mexico -155 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The North Texas Mean Green come into New Mexico with a 9-1 record, but they haven't been tested by many quality teams. They are 2-1 on the road, but the one loss came by a 16-point margin at unranked Oklahoma. The Lobos don't have a very impressive record, 5-4 overall and just 3-2 at home. Their losses though have came against tough teams the likes of New Mexico State, St. Mary's and Colorado. While they lost 78-75 at home to the Buffaloes, they led by nine points at halftime in that game. They followed up that game with a double-digit home win over UNC Ashville. Tonight they host a North Texas team that has failed to cover in four of their last five overall, and in four straight when coming off a win. The Mean Green have built a strong record by winning close games against lesser opponents, and they should be overmatched here in New Mexico. Take UNM. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-18 | Nebraska v. Oklahoma State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 79-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEB@OKST to go Under the total. When the Cornhuskers take on the Cowboys in Sioux Falls, SD on Sunday, I expect to see a defensive battle. Both these teams have played strong defense so far, but Nebraska has been really impressive only allowing 59.6 points per game. Previous head to head meetings have been really low scoring, going under in each of the last three. Oklahoma State won by a score of 53-52 in the most recent head to head meeting. Low scoring games are nothing new for the Cowboys, the under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 overall. They have also gone under in seven of their last eight neutral site games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-18 | Gonzaga v. North Carolina -2 | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on the North Carolina Tar Heels. The public loves Gonzaga in this spot, they have a better record than the Tar Heels and the are ranked in the Top 5. If you look at their last two games (a loss to Tennessee and a 2-point win over the unranked Washington Huskies) they haven't looked like a team that should be expected to win at Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are undefeated at home, and they have won 16 of their last 19 home games dating back to last year. That's pretty impressive when you consider they play the likes of Duke and Virginia. The Bulldogs haven't had a lot of success against ACC teams, failing to cover in six of their last seven. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State -3.5 | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack come into Atlantic City with an 8-1 record, and their only loss came in a close game on the road at #22 ranked Wisconsin. Penn State has lost four of it's last seven overall, and they appear to be overmatched here against a competitive ACC team. These two teams have played three times since 2000, and the Wolfpack won and covered in all three meetings. Both these teams have been solid defensively, but while the Nittany Lions average just 69.6 points per game, the Wolfpack come in averaging over 88 points per game. They shoot the ball better from the field, from beyond the arc as well as the free throw line. They Wolfpack also appear to have the edge in rebounds per game. This looks like a mismatch. Take NCST. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-18 | Purdue -4.5 v. Notre Dame | 80-88 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
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12-12-18 | LSU v. Houston -170 | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Cougars. The LSU Tigers are coming off back to back blowout wins at home over inferior teams, but they face a tough test in their first road game of the season at Houston. The Cougars are 8-0, coming off a road win at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had previously won by double digits in a neutral site game in Orlando. This is a spot where the Tigers have had trouble in the past, losing three of their last four at Houston. The Tigers are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, while the Cougars are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-18 | Jacksonville State v. Wichita State -8 | 65-69 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Wichita State Shockers. The Shockers have failed to impress so far this season, and they are coming off a devestating loss at Oklahoma. After losing 80-48 to the Sooners in Oklahoma City, they should be looking forward to a home game against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. The Gamecocks lost their first three games of the season on the road, and two of those three losses came in games decided by 15 or more points. The Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, while the Gamecocks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take WICH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-18 | Denver v. Wyoming -7.5 | 90-87 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Wyoming Cowboys. The Cowboys are coming off an inspiring home win over the South Carolina Gamecocks, and they will be a sizeable favorite at home versus Denver tonight. The history between these two teams is pretty clear, as the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings. All but one of those games was decided by a double a digit margin. Only once in the last eight head to head meetings did the home team fail to cover. Denver is 0-4 on the road, and hasn't covered the spread in any of it's last eight overall. Denver has also failed to cover in four straight trips to Laramie. Take WYO. GL, Jesse Schule
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12-09-18 | Oregon State v. St. Louis UNDER 134.5 | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on ORST@SLU to go Under the total. The Saint Louis Bilikens are off to a solid 6-2 start, and they are 5-0 at home. All of their success has been achieved as a result of their strong defensive play. They are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game at home, and during that span that includes a 64-52 win over Butler. Oregon State is no stranger to playing defense as well, holding opponents to 65 points per game his season. Last year the Beavers won 63-60 at home versus the Bilikens. Saint Louis has failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight overall, and five straight at home. The Under is 15-7 in the Beavers last 22 Sunday games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-18 | Dayton v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAY@AUB to go Under the total. Two of the best defensive teams in the country will face each other when #6 ranked Auburn hosts Dayton on Saturday . The Tigers will be a 15 point favorite, and they are 5-0 at home so far. Perhaps more impressive is that Auburn is only allowing 53.5 points per game at home. Neither of these teams are particularly good at shooting free throws, but hitting around 65 percent from the charity stripe. The Tigers have gone under in six of their last eight at home, and eight of their last 11 overall. All three head to head meetings (in the last decade) went under. Dayton has gone under in four of their last five road games, and in four straight versus SEC teams. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
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12-08-18 | Georgetown v. Syracuse UNDER 145.5 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GTWN@SYR to go Under the total. The Syracuse Orange will be a double digit home favorite in today's game against Georgetown, and the reason they are expected to cover such a big number here is because they are so strong defensively. The Orange are 5-0 at home, and they have allowed opponents to average just 52.8 points per game during that span. Historically these teams have played low scoring games, going under in six of the last nine meetings, yet the bookmakers have listed a total higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings. Syracuse has gone under in four straight against non-conference opponents, and the under is 4-1 in their last five at home. Take Under. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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12-07-18 | Nevada -7.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. Nevada is off to a hot start, coming into Friday's game versus Arizona State ranked sixth in the AP Poll. It's not just that the Wolfpack are 8-0, it's that all eight wins came by double-digits. Their closest game so far was a 96-86 win over Tulsa, in a game that they led by 11 at the half. The Sun Devils are also undefeated, and ranked in the Top 25. Their 7-0 start hasn't been quite as impressive, winning close games over teams like Utah State and Cal State Fullerton. They have only faced one ranked team, beating Mississippi State by a score of 72-67 in Las Vegas. Their last game was far from impressive, turning the ball over 19 times and shooting just 13-of-25 (52%) from the free throw line in a home win over Texas Southern. If they play like that here at the Staples Center, another double-digit win for Nevada will likely be the result. Take NEV. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-18 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 156 | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on WAS@GONZ to go Over the total. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the top ranked team in the country with an 8-0 record. They are averaging 98.4 points per game, second to only The Citadel who average 100 points per game. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back games with over 100 points, and a home game against Washington might see them put up another ridiculous number. They beat Washington 97-70 last year, and 98-71 the year before. So given the history you might expect the total for tonight's game to be over 160. Even though these teams hsve gone over in five of the last six meetings, tonights total is far lower than it was in all of those games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-04-18 | Michigan -4.5 v. Northwestern | 62-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-03-18 | Iowa v. Michigan State UNDER 158 | 68-90 | Push | 0 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on IOWA@MSU to go Under the total. Iowa got off to a good start, winning six straight non-conference games to start the season, but they lost to Wisconsin by a score of 72-66 in their first game in the BIG10. They play on the road at East Lansing tonight, and the Spartans are a double digit favorite. The last time these teams met, they played a high scoring game going well over the total. Prior to that they went under in five of eight meetings. Tonight's total is significantly higher than it was in any of those games, and all of those games went under the listed number for tonight's contest. Michigan State can really play defense, and that has translated into going under in four of their last five home games, and six of their last eight BIG10 games. They have also gone under in 11 of their last 13 when coming off a win. Take UNDER. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-27-18 | Indiana v. Duke OVER 155 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@DUKE to go Over the total. The Blue Devils will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they take on Indiana at home Tuesday night. Last year the Blue Devils won 91-81 at Indiana, and in the only other meeting in the past decade (2015) they won at home by a score of 94-74. The total for tonight's game is significantly lower than it was in the Hoosiers last trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium. In fact it's the lowest total the Blue Devils have seen all season. They come in averaging 91.8 points per game, but on defense they are allowing opponents to average 71.2 points per game. I guess that's what you get will a roster full of talented freshman. Indiana is lighting up the scoreboard as well, shooting 55.1 percent from the field and averaging 84.3 points per game. The over is 4-1 in Duke's last five games against BIG10 teams, and I woudn't be surprised to see another barn burner here tonight. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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11-24-18 | Houston v. BYU OVER 148.5 | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on HOU@BYU to go Over the total. Both Houston and BYU have got off to a good start this season, and both teams appear to be clicking offensively. The 5-1 Cougars come in averaging 84.7 points per game on 45.9 percent shooting, while the 3-0 Cougars (Houston) are averaging 87.3 points per game on 50.7 percent shooting. BYU has a history of playing high scoring games in Provo, the over is is 16-5-1 in the Cougars (BYU) last 22 home games. BYU has also gone over in 11 of their last 16 overall, and nine of their last 11 when coming off a win. If you can get a total under 150, I like the over here. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-18 | Washington v. Texas A&M UNDER 148.5 | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TAM@WAS to go Under the total. I took the under in Sunday's game between the Aggies and Minnesota in Vancouver, and it cashed easily. Here is what I said prior to tipoff: "Both these teams have played high scoring games early in the season, and because of that we see an inflated total for tonight's game. The Aggies are far from a run and gun team, despite averaging over 80 points per game so far. The majority of their points came in a 98-83 win over Savannah in their season opener. The have shot just over 22 percent from beyond the arc, and 66 percent from the free throw line. Minnesota scored 104 points against a Nebraska Omaha team that can't even think about playing defense, but then won by a score of 78-69 over Utah in their last game." The Aggies scored 64 points on 41 percent shooting, and they hit just 20 percent of their three-point attempts. Now they play a Huskies team that has allowed fewer than 70 points in all three of their wins this season. I expect another low scoring game here at this venue. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-18 | Texas A&M v. Minnesota UNDER 151.5 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on MINN@TAM to go Under the total. |
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11-17-18 | St. Louis v. Seton Hall UNDER 137.5 | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SLU@HALL to go Under the total. The Seton Hall Pirates lost a lot of their star players from last season, and they were humbled in an 80-57 loss at Nebraska their last time out. They shot just 35.6 percent from the field and 2-of-16 from beyond the arc in the loss. They will likely lean on strong defensive play as they hope to bounce back at home tonight against Saint Louis. They held Wagner to 49 points on 32 percent shooting in their home opener. Saint Louis comes in averaging just 68 points per game, and they've shot just 56.5 percent from the free throw line this season. The under is 19-6-1 in the Bilikens last 26 home games, and that's a trend I expect to hold true tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-18 | Oregon -4 v. Iowa | 69-77 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks are coming into New York averaging over 80 points per game, but perhaps more impressive than their offense has been the fact that they have held opponents to just 52 points per game. They will face an experienced Iowa team at MSG tonight, and Iowa brings back it's top three scorers from last year. The Hawkeyes were one of the worst teams in the BIG10 last season though, only Rutgers had fewer wins. Iowa comes in with a pair of wins in close games against inferior opponents. They gave up 82 points in a win over Green Bay in their last game. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 versus teams with a winning record. I like Oregon to win big here in New York. Take ORE. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-13-18 | Georgia Tech v. Tennessee OVER 139.5 | 53-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GT@TENN to go Over the total. Both the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Tennessee Volunteers come into tonight's game averaging over 80 points per game on better than 50 percent shooting. The Vols will be the favorite, and they won 77-70 at Georgia Tech last season. The total for tonight's game is set below 140, and that's a little too low in my opinion. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have come up short of the total, however the number for all three of those games was set above 140. Georgia Tech has gone over in four of it's last five road games, and the over is 4-1 in their last five non conference games. I don't expect either of these two teams to be dialed in on defense so early in the season. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-13-18 | Wisconsin v. Xavier OVER 143.5 | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WIS@XAV to go Over the total. The Musketeers won at Wisconsin by a score of 80-70 last November, and I think we'll see another high scoring game here in Cincinnati. This time the Badgers are a road favorite, coming off an 85-63 win over Coppin State. The Musketeers are 2-0 with a couple of close wins over unranked teams. They have not looked strong defensively, ranking 243rd in the country allowing 77 points per game. They are coming off a 91-85 win over the Evansville Aces, and the over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games. The Badgers have gone over in four of their last five non-conference games. Tonight's total is lower than it has been in any of Xavier's last 10 games, and this early in the season I don't expect either of these two teams to be dialed in defensively. Take Over. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-12-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Duquesne -5.5 | 88-89 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Duquesne Dukes.
The Dukes were 16-16 overall last season, and finished near the bottom of the Atlantic 10. They are off to a good start here in 2018, crushing William and Mary in their season opener by a score of 84-70. They will look to keep the ball rolling here in the Gotham Classic, hosting Illinois-Chicago. The Dukes shot 52.5 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from beyond the arc against the Tribe, while the Flames have shot just 43 percent from the field in back to back losses so far. The Dukes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they were 13-6 at home last season. They have done well in recent games against teams from the Horizon league, covering the spread in six of their last seven such contests. I'll take the home favorite here. Take DUQ. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-10-18 | Texas Southern v. Gonzaga OVER 155.5 | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TXSO@GONZ to go Over the total. The Bulldogs opened the season with a 120-79 win over Idaho State, and they host Texas Southern in Spokane tonight. Last year they beat Texas Southern by a score of 97-69, and I expect another high scoring game here tonight. Texas Southern can score points, they beat Baylor 72-69 in their first game. I don't like their chances of holding Gonzaga under 90, and I expect them to score at least 65. Gonzaga has gone over in 9 of it's last 12 non-conference games, while Texas Southern has gone over in 7 of its last 10 against non-conference opponents. Gonzaga hit over 58 percent from the field in their first game, and they should pile on the points here versus Texas Southern. Take Over. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-07-18 | Ohio State v. Cincinnati -200 | 64-56 | Loss | -200 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a pretty solid season, finishing third in the BIG10 with a record of 25-9 overall. They might struggle to get back to that level this year, losing leading scorer Keita Bates-Diop, and starting forward Jae-sean Tate. The news that center Micah Potter transferred just days before their season opener in Cincinnati doesn't bode well for the Buckeyes. Cincinnati finished first in the AAC last season ahead of Houston and Wichita State. They went into the NCAA Tournament ranked #6 overall, but were knocked out in the second round versus Nevada. This Cinci team was 15-1 at home last season, and the Buckeyes come in having failed to cover in four straight road games and six straight non-conference games. I'll back the home favorite. Take CINCI. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-06-18 | Florida v. Florida State -185 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Florida State Seminoles. |
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11-06-18 | Elon -120 v. Manhattan | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Elon Phoenix. Both Elon and Manhattan finished with 14 wins last season, but while the Jaspers picked up the majority of their wins against the minnows of the Metro Atlantic, the Phoenix won most of their games in non-conference play. Elon returns four senior starters, and that includes leading scorer Tyler Seibring who averaged 15.4 points per game last year. Manhattan doesn't have the luxury of bringing back all their stars from last season, losing three starters that accounted for more than 36 points per game last season. The Jaspers have home court advantage, but I think the more experienced team from the CAA will have the edge here in this season opening game in Riverdale NY. Take ELON. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
By now you have probably already heard that Michigan is the only team to make the Final without playing at least a #5 seed. Don't kid yourself, this Wolverines team didn't get here because of a soft schedule. Their 14 game winning streak includes wins over #2 ranked Michigan State (they beat the Spartans twice this year) and #8 ranked Purdue. They lost two of three versus the Boilermakers, but the two losses came by a combined margin of five points. Villanova comes in as the highest scoring team in the country, and they deserve to be the favorite. The line looks a little inflated though, asking them to cover a whopping seven points in a game of this magnitude. The Wildcats offense struggled against Texas Tech, but they were fortunate that the Red Raiders couldn't make a shot to save their lives in that game. Michigan has far better shooters, and the Wolverines rank 8th nationally allowing just 62.9 points per game. The last five National Championship Games were all decided by less than seven points, and I expect another close game here in 2018. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 86 h 7 m | Show | |
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03-25-18 | Duke -155 v. Kansas | 81-85 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke comes in as the #2 seed, favored to beat the #1 seed Kansas. Why are the Blue Devils favored? Well there are a handful of very good reasons. Duke has turned things around defensively, allowing just 67.6 points per game in their last five overall. The Jayhawks on the other hand allowed 76 points in their win over Clemson, and 79 points in their win over Seton Hall. Duke came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, covering the spread in nine of it's last 12 overall, and 11 of it's last 15 non conference games. The Blue Devils have a history of dominating teams from the BIG12, covering in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams. Perhaps more important than any trends or stats, Duke has the best coach in the business. No disrespect to Bill Self, but I'll take Coach K over anybody. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova OVER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -190 | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament as the hottest team in the country, and they looked the part in a dominant Sweet 16 win over Texas A&M. Florida State on the other hand came limping into the tournament as losers of three of four games. They have had an impressive run in their own right, beating #1 seed Xavier and #4 seed Gonzaga. I don't think either of those two teams were playing at the same level as Michigan is at the moment. Certainly the Wolverines are better defensively than either the Musketeers or the Bulldogs. The Wolverines have allowed just 60.6 points per game so far in the tournament, and during the regular season they allowed just 63.3 points per game. That's 10 points per game less than the Seminoles gave up this season. Michigan has the advantage on both offense and defense, and I think John Beilein is a better coach than Leonard Hamilton. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
8* |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Villanova. Jesse Schule |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -175 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 111 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky -5.5 | 61-58 | Loss | -102 | 38 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.
It took Kentucky the majority of the season to finally reach it's potential, but here in the Sweet 16 the Wildcats are one of the nation's hottest teams. They have become the elite contender they were projected to be. The Kansas State Wildcats are a tough, competitive team, and we shouldn't be surprised that they advanced this far. Kansas State is not among the truly elite teams in the country however, and that is evidenced by their record against the top teams in the BIG12. They lost three times to Kansas by a combined 31 points, and their two losses to West Virginia came by an even greater margin. Kansas State has covered just twice in it's last eight neutral site games, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. Kentucky is 3-0-2 ATS in it's last five NCAA Tournament games, and the Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -145 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville -5 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. Jesse Schule |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette -135 | 85-80 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marquette Golden Eagles. Only eight teams remain in the NIT Tournament, and one of the Quarter Final matchups will see Marquette hosting Penn State. Home teams are 17-3 straight up in the tournament so far, and 10 of those 17 wins for the home team came by a double digit margin. Marquette crushed a very good Oregon team by a score of 101-92 at home in it's second round match. I bet on the under in last night's game between Oklahoma State and Stanford, and in the analysis I referenced some data published by SB Nation regarding the NIT rule changes. Here is what I said: "According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points." Marquette scored 101 points, and shot 12-of-26 from beyond the arc in a home win over Oregon in the second round. Three-point shooting was the difference in the game, as Oregon made just 4-of-13 attempts. The nine point margin of victory was a little deceiving, as Oregon out-scored the Eagles 30-17 in the final quarter to make the game appear closer than it actually was. I'll take the Eagles here at the Bradley Center tonight. |
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03-19-18 | Stanford v. Oklahoma State UNDER 153.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@OKST to go UNDER the total.
It's difficult to say what kind of effect the new rules in the NIT will have on scoring. So far I can't see a lot of evidence that scoring is down across the board, but it certainly does appear that visiting teams are struggling from beyond the arc. According to SB Nation, in the first nine games of the tournament, eight of nine road teams shot below their season average from three-point range. One of those games was Oklahoma State hosting Florida Gulf Coast, and the Cowboys held the Eagles to just 68 points. Both teams struggled from three-point range in that game, with Oklahoma State shooting just 6-of-22 and FGCU hitting 10-of-27. The total for tonight's game in Stillwater is far higher than it has been in previous meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys have gone under in an incredible 11 straight non conference games, while the Cardinal have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight non-conference games. Oklahoma State has also failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 in Stillwater. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majoroty of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with FSU vs Xavier. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn | Top | 84-53 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
This is Game of the Year play on the Clemson Tigers.
I bet on the Charleston Cougars in their first round matchup versus Auburn, and here is what I had to say about the Tigers prior to that game: "Auburn was eliminated from the SEC Tournament when they lost by a whopping 18 points to Alabama. They have really struggled since losing senior forward Anfernee McLemore, who went down in an 84-75 loss to South Carolina. Including that game, they've lost four of their last six. Charleston comes in as winner of nine of their last 10 overall, with the only loss during that span coming in overtime. Auburn has failed to cover in four straight, and I don't think they should be asked to cover double digits here against a Charleston team that won 26 games this season." Clemson finished with an 11-7 record in the ACC.. you know who else had an 11-7 record? How about defending national champions North Carolina. They were eliminated from the ACC Tournament by #1 overall Virginia, losing that game by just six points. They had won three of their previous four overall, and Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last six non conference games, and they have covered in five straight versus the SEC. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati UNDER 136.5 | 75-73 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NEV@CIN to go UNDER the total.
The Wolfpack scored just 68 points in regulation in their first round matchup versus Texas, while Cincinnati gave up just 53 points in their first round win over Georgia State. I am expecting a gritty game here when they meet in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. . I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament so far, and the Bearcats have failed to reach the total of five of their last six overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State UNDER 129.5 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SYR@MSU to go Under, I bet on Syracuse in their First Four matchup versus Arizona State, and I took the under in their first round matchup versus TCU. Here is what I said before they beat the Sun Devils: "Both teams won a total of 20 games, and both teams were 4-6 away from home. Both teams have lost five of their last eight overall. The biggest difference I can see here between these two teams, is the strength of schedule in the ACC compared to the PAC12. Syracuse has faced Top 25 teams eight times this season, while Arizona State has only faced four ranked teams. The Orange were eliminated in the second round of the ACC Tournament by defending national champs North Carolina, while Arizona State was beaten in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament by unranked Colorado. The last time the Orange slipped into the Big Dance as a bubble team, they went all the way to the Final Four before being eliminated by the Tar Heels." The Orange will be a massive underdog here in their second round matchup versus Michigan State, and I think the venue here is particularly significant. I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." That trend has held true here in the NCAA Tournament, and Michigan State comes in as winners of five of their last six overall, but only one of those wins came by more than eight points. Jesse Schule |
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03-18-18 | Butler v. Purdue UNDER 143.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall v. Kansas -4.5 | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Seton Hall vs Kansas Free Pick March 17, 2018 |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
8* |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Kentucky. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Buffalo vs Kentucky. |
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke -9 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Duke. If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday's games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won't read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can't say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that's exactly what I think we have here with Rhode Island versus Duke. |
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03-16-18 | Florida State +1 v. Missouri | Top | 67-54 | Win | 100 | 115 h 23 m | Show |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse v. TCU UNDER 136.5 | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYR@TCU to go UNDER the total. The Orange allowed just 56 points in their First Four matchup versus Arizona State in Dayton Ohio I bet on the under in that game, and one of the reasons I gave in my analysis was the history of low scoring games at the particular venue. Here is what I said prior to the game against Arizona State: I am expecting Arizona to struggle against this elite Orange defense, and the venue may contribute to that. "Four teams played in Dayton Ohio in First Four games last night, and three of those four teams shot well below 40 percent from the field. The only exception being UCLA, and they only scored 58 points." I am not sure we should expect any more scoring here against a far better defensive team in TCU. I had a look at the venue, and it turns out I was riding the under here in the Horizon League Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to the Horizona League Final: "Four teams played in the Horizon League Tournament Semi Finals at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit last night, and not one of those teams scored 60 total points. In fact two of those teams (Cleveland State and Oakland) failed to score as many as 45 points." Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-16-18 | Texas Southern v. Xavier -18.5 | 83-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on XAV. |
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03-16-18 | College of Charleston +11 v. Auburn | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
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03-16-18 | Texas v. Nevada | 83-87 | Loss | -101 | 109 h 12 m | Show | |
The Texas Longhorns will be an underdog here against Nevada in the first round of the tournament, and the Wolfpack come in looking a bit sluggish. They lost twice to San Diego State at the end of the year, including a loss in the Mountain West Tournament. The Longhorns are one of the better defensive teams in the BIG12, and they are 10-3 straight up in non conference games this season. Their defensive expertise should serve them well here in a matchup versus a Nevada team that racked up 27 wins by beating up on inferior teams in the Mountain West Conference. Texas allowed just 66 points in a total of six neutral site games this season, roughly 10 points less than the Wolfpack allowed at neutral sites. Mohamed Bamba missed three games due to injury, but returned to score 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting in just 14 minutes in a loss to Texas Tech in the BIG12 Tournament. The Wolfpack have failed to cover in four of their last five non-conference games, and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. The under is is 24-11 in the Longhorns last 35 neutral site games. The Wolfpack have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games, and I like Texas to win a low scoring game here in Nashville. Take TEX. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-16-18 | Lipscomb v. North Carolina -20.5 | 66-84 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
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03-16-18 | Marshall v. Wichita State -11.5 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
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03-15-18 | Montana v. Michigan -11 | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
There might not be a hotter team coming into the tournament than Michigan. The Wolverines closed the season by winning nine straight games, and beating both #2 Michigan State, and #8 Purdue in the BIG10 Tournament. Here is what I had to say prior to their big upset win over the Spartans: " I bet against Michigan State in yesterday's conference tournament game, and the Spartans narrowly avoided an upset in a 63-60 win over Wisconsin. The Spartans are ranked #2 overall, and they have already wrapped up a BIG10 Championship. There isn't a lot to prove here for Michigan State in the conference tourney. The Wolverines already upset Michigan State once this year, winning 82-72 at East Lansing. Michigan has won nine of it's last 10 overall, and is 5-1 in neutral site games this year. The Spartans have only covered the spread twice in their last 11 games overall, while Michigan is 19-7-1 ATS in it's last 27 versus the Big Ten. I'll take the points here in a game where I think the underdog has more to prove." I don't think a team from the Big Sky can hang with the Wolverines. Teams from this conference have lost 12 straight in the NCAA Tournament. This should be a blowout, look for Michigan to win by 15-20. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-15-18 | Buffalo v. Arizona -8.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
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03-15-18 | Davidson v. Kentucky -5.5 | 73-78 | Loss | -104 | 76 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. |
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03-15-18 | Iona v. Duke -19.5 | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Iona Gaels weren't even the best team in the Metro Atlantic this year. They finished fourth behind Niagara, Canisius and Rider. The lost three of their final four regular season games, giving up 110 points to Rider, 85 points to Niagara and 82 points at Siena. The Gaels didn't play a single ranked opponent during their non conference schedule, and they finished the season ranked as one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Duke was eliminated by defending champions North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, but the Blue Devils held their last five opponents to an average of 63.2 points. Duke averaged 84.7 points per game this season, and matched up against a minnow like Iona, it's reasonable to suggest they have a good chance to score 100 here tonight. I don't like Iona's chances of scoring 70 on Duke. This game should be a blowout from start to finish. Take Duke. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-15-18 | Pennsylvania v. Kansas -13.5 | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. |
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03-15-18 | NC-Greensboro +12.5 v. Gonzaga | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UNC Greensboro. Jesse Schule |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | 78-83 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 54 m | Show | |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse UNDER 143.5 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on SYR@ARZST to go UNDER the total. Can you remember when Arizona State was ranked in the Top 5? They were ranked #3 overall in the AP rankings after winning their first 12 games of the season. They have since lost 11 of 19 games, and they should consider themselves quite fortunate to have made it into the tournament. They will be a small favorite in their first round matchup against Syracuse, and there is actually quite a lot of similarities between the two teams. Both teams won a total of 20 games, and both teams were 4-6 away from home. Both teams have lost five of their last eight overall. The biggest difference I can see here between these two teams, is the strength of schedule in the ACC compared to the PAC12. Syracuse has faced Top 25 teams eight times this season, while Arizona State has only faced four ranked teams. The Orange were eliminated in the second round of the ACC Tournament by defending national champs North Carolina, while Arizona State was beaten in the first round of the PAC12 Tournament by unranked Colorado. The last time the Orange slipped into the Big Dance as a bubble team, they went all the way to the Final Four before being eliminated by the Tar Heels. I am expecting Arizona to struggle against this elite Orange defense, and the venue may contribute to that. Four teams played in Dayton Ohio in First Four games last night, and three of those four teams show well below 40 percent from the field. The only exception being UCLA, and they only scored 58 points. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-13-18 | St Bonaventure v. UCLA -165 | 65-58 | Loss | -165 | 33 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins. |
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03-13-18 | St Bonaventure v. UCLA OVER 153 | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UCLA/SBON Over. |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford -185 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Radford. |
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03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4.5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
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03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia -165 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UVA. I bet on the Cavs for the first half in last night's game against Clemson, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: "Virginia is the nation's leader in opponents scoring average, allowing just over 52 points per game. The Tigers are not a great team offensively, in fact you could say they are a poor man's version of Virginia. The Tigers have scored an average of 3.2 points more than Virginia over their last five games, but have allowed opponents to score an average of 10 more points per game. If you look at the numbers for both teams at neutral sites, Clemson has scored an average of five points more than the Cavs, but allowed opponents to score almost 20 points more than Virginia. The Cavs have won seven straight meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all but one of those games. Virginia opened up a double digit first half lead in their win over Louisville yesterday, and I see no reason why they won't do the same here against Clemson." The Cavs led by nine in last night's game, and they have been leading at the half in six of their last seven overall. Take UVA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5 | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
8* |
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03-10-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -150 | 77-74 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Wichita State Shockers. |
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03-10-18 | Alabama v. Kentucky -178 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. |
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03-09-18 | Utah State v. New Mexico -170 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
New Mexico might be the hottest team in the Mountain West right now, coming into tonight's game as winners of six straight. Not only are they winning, but by golly they sure as sh%t are scoring as well. They have scored an average of 99.6 points over their last five games. The Aggies are coming off an upset win over conference powerhouse Boise State, rallying in the second half to overcome an early double digit deficit. The Aggies appear to have caught Boise State at the right time, the Broncos lost four of their last seven games. Utah State came into the tournament as losers of four of their final five regular season games. I think the Aggies suffer a let down here just 24 hours after a shocking upset win. Take UNM. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-09-18 | North Carolina v. Duke -190 | 74-69 | Loss | -190 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
North Carolina went down 14-0 early in their win over Miami last night, but they recovered to take a 1-point lead to the locker room at halftime. They face a far tougher test against Duke tonight, and the Blue Devils are firing on all cylinders. Duke comes in as winners of seven of their last eight, and all seven of those wins came by a double digit margin. One of those was a home win over the Tar Heels, and the outscored UNC by 20-points in the second half of that game. Duke has a better overall record, a better record in conference, and a better record at neutral sites. The stats that really stand out though are the numbers on defense. Duke has held opponents under 70 points per game overall this season, and the Blue Devils have allowed less than 60 points per game in their last five overall. Duke has covered in nine of it's last 11 games at a neutral site. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-09-18 | Butler v. Villanova -8 | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Villanova Wildcats 1st Half.
For the first time in a long time the Wildcats won't be going into the NCAA Tournament as BIG EAST champions. That should provide a little added motivation for them to have a good showing here in the conference tournament. They sure looked motivated in their first tournament game against Maquette, blowing out the Eagles by 20+ points. They led by seven at halftime in that game, and they led by double digits at the half in their previous two games. They face Butler tonight, and the Bulldogs are lucky to be here. Butler trailed Seton Hall by a point in the dying seconds last night, and Kamar Baldwin missed a layup. Tyler Wideman was there for the put back, and Seton Hall's defenders were caught sleeping. It was a wild finish, but I think it sets up Butler for a let down here against the juggernaut of the BIG EAST. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at a neutral site, while Butler has failed to cover in six of it's last eight overall. Take VILL. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-09-18 | Clemson v. Virginia -7 | 58-64 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Virginia Cavs. |
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03-09-18 | Richmond +7.5 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
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03-09-18 | Memphis v. Tulsa -165 | 67-64 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. |
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03-08-18 | Duquesne v. Richmond -130 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Richmond Spiders.
Richmond had a brutal season in the A-10, but I believe this is a team that is far better than the numbers show. The Spiders showed some promise at the end of the season, winning back to back games in blowout fashion. They beat UMASS by a score of 90-65, shooting over 57 percent from the field and going 8-of-18 from beyond the arc. Three days later they went on the road and beat George Mason by a score of 93-79, shooting over 62 percent from the field and going 10-of-18 from beyond the arc. The Dukes have struggled, and they come into the tournament as loser of seven of their last eight overall. They don't score a lot of points, averaging just over 70 points per game in their last five. Richmond has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams, and I'll ride them while their hot. Take RICH. GL, Jesse Schule |
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03-07-18 | Iowa State v. Texas -5.5 | 64-68 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Longhorns.
The Texas Longhorns finished the season strong with a home win over #20 ranked West Virginia. Iowa State comes into the BIG12 Tournament off six straight losses, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five. The Longhorns have won both meetings between the two teams in 2018, covering the spread in both games. The Cyclones are brutal on defense, and they have allowed opponents to average 82.6 points per game in their last five overall. Texas has held the opposition under 70 points per game during that span. Iowa State has only averaged 64 points per game in the last three head to head meetings in this series. I'll take Texas to win and cover. Take TEX. GL, Jesse Schule |