01-30-16 |
Virginia v. Louisville -5.5 |
Top |
63-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. The Virginia Cavaliers have been a powerhouse in the ACC in recent years, but they've really struggled this season. They've dropped four of six on the road, and even though they managed to eke out a win at Wake Forest on Tuesday, they trailed by seven points with just 28 seconds remaining in that game. They connected with a trio of three-pointers in the final 14 seconds, including the winner at he buzzer. This should put them in a position for a big let down as they are in a much tougher spot at Louisville Saturday. The Cardinal are sitting in second in the ACC with a record of 6-1 in conference play. They are 13-0 at home, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10. Louisville should have an enormous advantage on the glass, coming in averaging more than 39 rebounds per game (10 more than the Cavs). They are lighting up the scoreboard at home, averaging 84.4 points on 51 percent shooting so far. The Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Georgia Tech v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. Syracuse crushed Notre Dame at home on Thursday night, and I cashed in a winner in that game. Here is what I said before tip off: "The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals." The Orange have also been red hot from beyond the arc, shooting 40 percent from three point range over their last five games. They made 10 three-pointers in the win over the Irish. Georgia Tech is coming off a road win at North Carolina State, but had dropped three straight prior to that. After watching the Orange completely dismantle Notre Dame on Thursday, it's hard to imagine that the Yellow Jackets will have much of a chance here on Saturday. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-29-16 |
VCU -125 v. Davidson |
|
79-69 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the VCU #RAMS. The Victoria Commonwealth Rams are still undefeated in the Atlantic-10 Conference, and they put their 7-0 record to the test tonight on the road at Davidson. The Wildcats have failed to impress, sitting sixth in the conference with a 4-3 record. They have yet to lose at home, but not one of their 10 wins so far have come against the likes of VCU. The Rams are coming off an 84-76 win over the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. They already have a pair of road wins against top tier opponents, winning at Richmond and St. Joe's.
The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus A-10 teams, and they won their last game at Davidson by a whopping 20 points. The Wildcats have been underwhelming as a home favorite, failing to cover in 10 of their last 12 home games. The Rams come in averaging over 86 points on better than 50 percent shooting in their last five games, and that's not even the scary part.
Their strength is in defense, and they've allowed opponents to average 69.2 points on 43.9 percent shooting during that five game span. They've covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games, and seven of their last eight overall.
Take VCU.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-28-16 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse -3.5 |
Top |
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Notre Dame Irish are coming into Syracuse as winners of four straight, and that includes a 95-91 upset win at Duke. They haven't had much success in previous meetings with Syracuse, losing six of the last seven meetings and four straight at the Carrier Dome. It's not going to be easy to avoid another loss tonight, with leading scorer Demetrius Jackson sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals. That's of particular concern for the Irish, who will rely on junior guard Steve Vasturia to take over ball handling duties with Jackson injured. Notre Dame is 1-4-1 ATS in it's last six games versus teams with a winning record.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-27-16 |
Purdue v. Minnesota +14 |
|
68-64 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
The Golden Gophers have lost nine straight, and a 10th consecutive loss seems probable tonight. They host #21 ranked Purdue, and they will be a double digit home dog. While the losses have piled up, it's not as if Minnesota hasn't been competitive. The Gopher's last three losses have all come in close games, losing by five points to Illinois and Michigan, and by just seven points at home to Indiana. "It's tough," said coach Richard Pitino. "You're working hard. You're playing hard. You want to win. And you're just not finding a way to do it." These teams have a history of playing close games, with each of the last four meetings decided by four points or less. The Boiler Makers will be short-handed, with forward Caleb Swanigan nursing a sprained ankle, and Vince Edwards trying to shake off a head injury. Both players may still see action, but guard Kendall Stephens will sit out a second straight game due to personal reasons. I think the Boilers Makers are being asked to cover a few too many points against a BIG10 rival on the road.
Take MINN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-27-16 |
Louisville v. Virginia Tech +8 |
Top |
91-83 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Virginia Tech has lost back to back games, but both of those were close. Their last game was a 75-70 loss to North Carolina at home, and before that they lost at Notre Dame by a score of 83-81. They are getting a bunch of points at home tonight versus Louisville, and the Cardinals haven't been all that formidable on the road. They lost at Clemson, and wins at Georgia Tech and N.C. State came by a combined nine points. Louisville has struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 70.8 points on 43 percent shooting. The Hokies are averaging over 78 points per game at home, and they've allowed the opposition to average just 67.7. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, and they've failed to cover in six of their last eight overall. The Hokies have covered the spread in four straight at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Indiana v. Wisconsin +2 |
Top |
79-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Indiana Hoosiers are 7-0 in conference play, and their stock is on the rise. I think the #19 ranked Hoosiers are a little overrated coming into Wisconsin as a favorite. They just barely escaped with a 59-58 win at home when the two teams played earlier this season. Wisconsin has suffered a few losses at home, but they looked pretty tough in a 63-60 loss to Maryland. Melo Trimble hit a buzzer beater to break the Badgers hearts in that game. The Badgers most recent home game was an upset win over Michigan State, led by Bronson Koenig's 27 point performance. The Hoosiers have really struggled against Wisconsin, going 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and losing five straight in Madison. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Virginia v. Wake Forest +7 |
Top |
72-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 4-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last six overall, and all three wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. They snuck by Syracuse at home on the weekend, and now they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Wake Forest. The Cavs only have one win in five games on the road this season, and that was at Ohio State in December. They won that game 64-58, less than the margin they are asked to cover tonight. Virginia has since lost at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Not exacty powerhouse teams. Four of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, and Virginia is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take WAKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Duke +3.5 v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
69-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. We don't often see Duke as an underdog, but after sufferring three straight losses in conference play, the Blue Devils stock is low. All three of those losses came in close games against hot teams, and they turned things around with a double digit win on the road at N.C. State in their last game. Miami has an impressive record, but there's no denying that the Hurricanes have had a much softer schedule. Home court hasn't been much of an advantage in recent meetings between these two schools, as the home team is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10. The Canes upset Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season, which sets up a nice revenge play here in Miami. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Utah v. Washington +3 |
|
80-75 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Washington #Huskies.
The Huskies have been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball this season, sitting at the top of the PAC12 with a 5-1 conference record. They haven't exactly had a soft schedule either, knocking off the likes of Colorado, USC and UCLA. They host Utah tonight, and the Utes have a history of struggling on the road. They've suffered losses at Stanford and California already this season.
Washington has won four of it's last five home meetings with Utah, and the Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus the PAC12. Rebounding isn't a strong point for Utah, and the Utes only managed 23 rebounds in a 77-68 loss at Washington in the last meeting. The Huskies have been dominating on the boards, averaging over 40 rebounds per game at home. The Utes have become a little overrated and they've failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games against conference rivals.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Syracuse +9.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 3-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last five overall, and both wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. Still they are asked to win by double digits at home to Syracuse, a team that's coming off big road wins over Wake Forest and Duke. The Orange got off to a slow start, but that's understandable as they were missing head coach Jim Boeheim. Since his return they have turned things around winning three of four, but they can't afford to too many more losses if they want to keep post-season aspirations alive. The Orange have really turned up the heat on defense, allowing just 63 points per game over their last five. That's slightly less than Virginia has surrendered during the same span. "Our rebounding has been better and our defense has been better and those are two things you have to do, especially defense," said Boeheim. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Providence +13 v. Villanova |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The #16 ranked Providence Friars will be a big underdog at Villanova on Sunday, getting a double digit cushion. Providence hasn't had any trouble winning on the road, with a 4-0 record this year. Dating back to last season, they've covered the spread in eight straight on the road. They also have a history of playing close games against division rivals Villanova, as three of their last four versus the Wildcats have been decided by six points or less. The last meeting was a 63-61 home win for the Wildcats, who failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite. Villanova is 7-0 in the Big East, and 10-0 at home. The Wildcats have been tested though, wins over Georgetown, Butler and Seton Hall all coming by a single digit margin. Providence has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 in this series, and the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
SMU v. Temple +7 |
Top |
80-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Temple Owls.
Temple has won six of it's last eight overall, and during that span the Owls upset Cincinnati twice (once on the road). They host the SMU Mustangs in an early game Sunday, and SMU is asked to cover a bunch of points on the road. While Larry Brown's team is still undefeated, they may be vulnerable to an upset here. They did win at Temple last January, but only by five points (60-55). The Owls won 71-64 at home in 2014, and they were an eight point underdog in that game. Temple doesn't have the offensive firepower to match the Mustangs, but the Owls can play defense. In fact they've held the opposition to just 58.8 points on 36.7 percent shooting over their last five games. One of those was an impressive 55-53 win at Connecticut. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five in this series, and that trend should continue on Sunday.
Take TEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Arizona -140 v. California |
Top |
73-74 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Golden Bears are struggling, coming into tonight's home game versus Arizona as losers of three of their last four. They are coming off a rather uninspiring 75-70 home win over the Sun Devils, who are sitting in the cellar in the PAC12. They haven't had much success against Arizona in recent seasons, losing four straight and failing to cover in all four of those losses. It won't be easy tonight, as they are missing senior guard Tyrone Wallace, who will miss the next six weeks with a broken hand. Wallace leads the team in scoring with 15.4 points per game, and assists (4.6). Arizona has won three straight, but they absolutely demolished Washington and Washington State at home, and then won by double digits at Stanford in their last game. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. It looks like the Wildcats are catching Cal in a tough spot without it's best player.
Take ARZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Vanderbilt +6 v. Kentucky |
Top |
57-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Kentucky has looked vulnerable lately, losing on the road at Auburn and LSU, and barely beating Mississippi State at home. The Wildcats may have their hands full at home this Saturday, hosting a Vanderbilt team that has won three straight. The Commodores crushed the Vols in Tennessee on Thursday by a score of 88-74. They hit 13 three-pointers, and out-rebounded Tennessee 50-43. The Vols have lost four of five overall on the road, but they've played some close games. They've actually covered the spread in nine of their last 13 road games. They've also been a great bet against Kentucky, as the Wildcats have failed to cover in seven straight against Vanderbilt. The Commodores will have a huge size advantage with a pair of seven footers, and junior forward Luke Kornet who has been a force during this three game winning streak. Kornet has scored 29 points, 31 rebounds with a whopping 16 blocks over the last three games. Take VAN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-22-16 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois -105 |
Top |
49-58 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Huskies won at Toledo by a score of 71-66 just over a week ago, and tonight they host the same Rocket team. Northern Illinois is still undefeated at home, with a 12-0 record. For some reason the bookmakers aren't impressed by that, as the home team isn't even the favorite tonight. The Huskies have the better record within the conference, as well as the better overall record. They enjoy a size advantage, and should have little trouble out-rebounding Toledo. The Huskies have won three of their last four versus Toledo, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The Rockets scored just 66 points on 40.8 percent shooting, and were 5-of-18 from beyond the arc at home versus NIU, and they might be hard pressed to improve on those numbers here on the road.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-21-16 |
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's -165 |
|
67-70 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
The Gaels are tied at the top of the WCC with Gonzaga, as each team has a 6-1 record. The Gaels though have the better overall record, and have looked far more impressive than the Bulldogs. St. Mary's leads the nation in field goal percentage (.534), and it's tied for second nationally hitting 44.7 percent from beyond the arc. Their 13-0 home record is even more impressive when you consider that all of those wins came by a double-digit margin. Gonzaga has dominated the WCC over the years, and with a 14-4 record you might think not much has changed. The reality is that this Bulldogs team is a complete mess, nowhere near as good as it was in recent seasons. Their backcourt has really been in disarray after losing Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr, and they've been quite fortunate to avoid losing more games. They needed to mount a furious second half comeback to force overtime in their win at San Francisco, and they beat cellar dwellars Santa Clara by just two points. The Bulldogs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Take SMC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-21-16 |
College of Charleston v. Towson -185 |
|
40-37 |
Loss |
-185 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* play on the Towson Tigers.
The College of Charleston is in rough shape since losing it's leading scorer. They've lost four of their last five, and that's not entirely surprising when you consider that Canyon Barry was averaging almost 20 points per game. Barry will miss the rest of the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. The Cougars have lost four straight to Towson, and the Tigers are 8-1 at home so far. The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games, while the Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus Charleston. Towson has owned the boards at home, with over 39 rebounds per game. They should clean up on the glass tonight, as Charleston has averaged just 30 rebounds per game on the road. The Cougars numbers are way down since the injury to Barry, and I don't think they'll be able to overcome his absence here on the road tonight.
Take Towson.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Georgetown v. Xavier -9.5 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off a home loss to Villanova, and they'll have their work cut out for them on the road at Xavier tonight. The Musketeers are 16-1 overall, and 9-0 at home. They've won their last four games by an average margin of 16 points, and two of those wins came on the road. They've covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 overall, and four of their last five versus the Hoyas. They've been historically great at home, going 41-18 ATS in their last 59 home games. The Musketeers scored 36 points on 12 made three pointers in their last home game, and also shot 80 percent from the free throw line in an 84-64 win over DePaul. The Hoyas will be at a severe disadvantage when it comes to rebounding and perimeter shooting, and I think it's going to be tough to overcome for the visitors.
Take Xavier.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
NC State v. Pittsburgh -8 |
|
78-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Pittsburgh bounced back from a tough loss at Louisville by crushing Boston College 84-61 on Saturday, and they are just a single digit favorite at home to N.C. State tonight. The Wolfpack have lost five straight, and they haven't showed me anything that suggests that they can be competitive on the road against a team like Pitt. N.C. State has lost three straight on the road, while Pittsburgh is 12-1 at home. The Panthers have scored plenty of points at home, averaging 83.7 points on 49.7 percent shooting. They are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, hitting just under 80 percent from the charity stripe. They've 10 straight at home, and eight of those wins came by a double digit margin.
Take PITT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -160 |
|
70-75 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Huskies had won seven straight until losing at Western Michigan on Saturday, but I like their chances of getting back on track at home tonight. They will put their 11-0 home record to the test, hosting Central Michigan. The Chippewas have lost four of five on the road, and they are coming off a 74-61 loss to a pretty average Bulls team in Buffalo. The Huskiesare 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, while Central Michigan is just 2-5-1 ATS in it's last 8 road games. The Chippewas lost their last visit to Northern Illinois by a score of 73-55, and they shot just 17-of-54 (31.5%) from the field in that game. The Huskies are 24-8-4 ATS in their last 36 versus MAC rivals.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Clemson +10.5 v. Virginia |
|
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Clemson Tigers.
It's getting harder and harder to overlook the Clemson Tigers, as they come into Virginia as winners of five straight. Now it's not just the fact that they've won a few games, it's the teams that they've been beating. They've upset Duke, Louisville and Miami at home, and they won on the road at Syracuse. Now there's no doubt that a road game at Virginia could spell trouble for the Tigers, but I still don't see how a Cavs team that has lost three of it's last four should be asked to cover a double-digit spread. The Cavs aren't a great offensive team at the best of times, and they've scored an average of 67.4 points over their last five games. Clemson's offense has been firing on all cylinders, and junior F Jaron Blossomgame is coming off a season high 25 points versus Miami. I like the Tigers to keep it close here in Virginia.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-17-16 |
Michigan v. Iowa -7.5 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa has won 10 of it's last 11 overall, and that one loss came on the road at rivals Iowa State in a game that they led 49-35 at halftime. They host Michigan Sunday, and the Wolverines are coming off a home win over #3 ranked Maryland. The Wolverines didn't exactly catch Maryland at their best, as Melo Trimble scored just two points on 1-of-7 shooting. They appear to be primed for a let down here in Iowa, against a team that has averaged 85.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting while winning all eight of it's home games. The Hawkeyes swept the series last year, winning both games by a double digit margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 in their last 11 versus conference rivals, and Michigan is shorthanded without it's best player Caris LaVert. The Wolverines got crushed in an 87-70 loss to Purdue in their last road game, The Boilermakers owned the boards in that game, out-rebounding Michigan 36-28. They are likely to struggle on the boards here in Iowa as well, the Hawkeyes average 38 rebounds per game at home.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Oklahoma State +7.5 v. Texas |
Top |
69-74 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Texas Longhorns had lost three of four overall before beating Iowa State in overtime, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. Texas is a big favorite here on Saturday against Oklahoma State, and I am not convinced that the Longhorns can cover such a number. Their win over the Cyclones was only their second in the last five games, and each of their last three wins have come by three points or less. The Cowboys have been a good bet in previous meetings, going 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 versus Texas. The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Seton Hall v. Providence -6 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The Friars will host Big East rivals Seton Hall on Saturday, and they've won four straight in this series. The Pirates have lost back to back games to Creighton and Villanova, and they are just are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big East. Providence has covered the spread in five of it's last six versus Conference rivals. Providence won the last meeting by a score of 79-66 at Seton Hall last March. The Friars scored 29 points at the charity stripe in that game, and they are averaging 71.2 percent from the free throw line this season. The Pirates are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big East, while the Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference rivals.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Notre Dame v. Duke -8.5 |
Top |
95-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. Duke is coming off a sub-par performance on the road at Clemson, losing by a score of 68-63. The Blue Devils had won five straight prior that, and they are still undefeated at home. Few teams can say that they've had any success at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Blue Devils are 58-1 in Durham since Nov. 9, 2012, and one of those wins was a 90-60 blowout against the Irish last year. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in seven of their last nine versus conference rivals, and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. They've averaged 93.5 points on 50 percent shooting while going 10-0 at home, but perhaps their biggest advantage over the Irish is on the boards. They are averaging almost 40 rebounds per game, while the Irish are averaging less than 30. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-15-16 |
Monmouth v. Iona -123 |
|
110-102 |
Loss |
-123 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Iona Gaels. The Monmouth Hawks have made headlines early in the season, knocking off some of the country's top teams. They haven't been very consistent though, losing a few games that they were expected to win. They appear to be overrated here on the road against the MAAC Conference leading Gaels. Iona is 7-0 at home, and it's won five straight overall. The Gaels had struggled when leading scorer A.J. English was sidelined by an injury, but he's scored 48 points in his last two games. These teams have faced each other five times over the last two seasons, with Iona winning four of five and all three homes games. Take IONA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-14-16 |
Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco -4.5 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 8* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons are coming off a 102-92 loss at BYU on Saturday, and they are just 3-3 against WCC teams. Those three losses though came against the big boys of the WCC (St. Mary's, Gonzaga and BYU). Only one of those losses came at home, falling 102-94 to Gonzaga in overtime. They are back at home tonight, taking on the Loyola Marymount Lions. The Lions have lost four straight, and they have failed to cover in eight of their last nine versus conference rivals. The visitors may not have the firepower to keep up with the Dons offensively, San Francisco has averaged over 90 points on 48.9 percent shooting over it's last five games. During that same span the Lions have averaged 58.6 points on 37.4 percent shooting. The Dons won the last meeting by a score of 72-45, and they out-rebounded the Lions 41-27 in that game. I expect them to own the boards again tonight, and they should cruise to an easy victory against an inferior opponent.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-14-16 |
Pittsburgh +7 v. Louisville |
Top |
41-59 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a loss to Clemson on Sunday, and yet they are still asked to cover an enormous spread at home tonight against a Pittsburgh team that has won 10 straight. I bet against Louisville in their loss to Clemson, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"The Louisville Cardinals will be a big favorite on the road at Clemson Sunday, and I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."
They have now failed to cover in four straight (I bet against them in all four games), and one of those was a home win over Wake Forest by single digits. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 83.6 points on 48.9 percent shooting over their last five games. During that same span the Cardinal have scored just 75.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Perhaps the biggest edge for the visitors is that they rank first nationally, shooting 80.1 percent from the free throw line. Louisville is hitting a rather pedestrian 68 percent from the charity stripe.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Florida State v. NC State -1 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the N.C. State Wolfpack.
The Florida State Seminoles have kicked off conference play with three straight losses, all of the "blowout" variety. They are on the road at N.C. State tonight, and the Wolfpack are also looking for their first win against a conference opponent. While both teams have lost three straight, the Wolfpack have a lot more to hang their hat on. They've played relatively well, losing by five points at Virginia Tech, and by just three points at Wake Forest. Their lone home game during that span was against #16 ranked Louisville, and they pushed the Cardinals to the brink, but lost 77-72. They have been a good bet in recent meetings with Florida State, winning three of the last four outright, and covering the spread in all three of those victories. Last year they won by a score of 72-63 at Tallahassee, and leading scorer Anthony Barber didn't even play in that game. That didn't stop them from cleaning up on the boards, and limiting FSU to 19-of-51 (31.7%) from the field. I expect the home team to take care of business here against a team that they've owned in previous seasons.
Take NCST
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Duke -6.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
63-68 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Clemson Tigers are flying high, but I think they're about to get their wings clipped here at home versus Duke. I bet on Clemson as a nine point dog at home when they played Louisville on Sunday, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams. Clemson isn't a great team, but the Tigers are 7-2 at home, and they've played their best ball while winning back to back games against Florida State and Syracuse."
Now they are playing a much stronger Duke team, and they are getting fewer points. This is also a let down spot for the Tigers, who might be feeling a bit too good about himself coming off such a big upset. Duke is coming off five straight wins, scoring an average of 92.4 points on 51 percent shooting. The Blue Devils have shot 53 percent while winning both their road games so far this season, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus conference opponents.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Rhode Island v. St Bonaventure -109 |
Top |
64-69 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.
The Rhode Island Rams are coming off a 72-67 loss at St. Josephs on Sunday, and they've now lost three of four on the road. Tonight's game won't be easy, visiting a hot St. Bonaventure team that is 7-1 at home. The Bonnies have won four straight, and their last home game was a 97-85 win over Davidson. They've now covered the spread in eight straight against conference rivals, and still they aren't asked to cover any points here at home tonight. Rhode Island has failed to cover the spread in eight of it's last nine meetings with the Bonnies, and the Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Take SBON.
GL, Jesse Schule.
|
01-12-16 |
Iowa State -1.5 v. Texas |
Top |
91-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Hawkeyes. The Texas Longhorns have lost three of their last four overall, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. I think he will be sorely missed here against the Cyclones, who have looked very solid on the road. Iowa State won outright at Cincinnati, and lost a close game 87-83 at Oklahoma. Texas got killed on the boards in a loss to TCU on Saturday, and it shot just 37.1 percent from the field, and 14 percent from three point range. "I think offensively, we've got to continue to get better at playing faster," coach Shaka Smart said , "getting out in transition to get some easier baskets, because right now we're struggling to shoot the ball from outside in the half court." The Cyclones have averaged 82 points on 47 percent shooting on the road so far. Take ISU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-12-16 |
Florida v. Texas A&M -5.5 |
Top |
68-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies are 13-2 overall, and 9-0 at home. They host the Florida Gators tonight, and I don't think this game will be all that close. The Aggies are coming off a win on the road at Tennessee, just a few days after the Vols crushed Florida by a score of 83-69. The Gators are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Florida has averaged just 58.8 points per game on 37.8 points per game on the road this year. They've really struggled at the free throw line, hitting just 58.3 percent. The Aggies are averaging 86.8 points on 51.4 percent shooting while remaining unbeaten at home. They've covered the spread in five straight home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-10-16 |
NC State v. Wake Forest -140 |
|
74-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest will host ACC rivals N.C. State on Sunday, and history tells us that the home team has won seven straight in this series dating back to 2012. Both teams are still looking for their first win in conference play, but even though the Deacons have lost their last two games, I think they've looked like the better team. They were quite competitive in losses to Duke and Louisville, while the Wolfpack lost on the road at Virginia Tech in their conference opener. They've scored 68.7 points on just 36.4 shooting on the road so far. Senior forward Devin Thomas is Wake's leading scorer, and he scored 21 points on 9-of-11 shooting in the loss to Duke. He's likely to prove too much to handle for the Wolfpack tonight.
Take WAKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-10-16 |
Valparaiso v. Detroit +7.5 |
Top |
92-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Titans.
Valparaiso is a great team, and it's coming off an impressive road win over a good Oakland team. The Crusaders were a three point favorite in that game, but would win by a score of 84-67. Here we are just a few days later, and Valparaiso is facing another tough opponent on the road, but this time they are asked to cover a much bigger number at Detroit, a team that is undefeated at home. The Titans are 9-0, scoring an average of 87.4 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting in those games. They've played Valparaiso seven times since March of 2012, covering the spread in five of those seven games. They won four of those contests outright, and most of their losses came by just a few points. The Titans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Crusaders might be missing starting PG Keith Carter, the senior is listed as questionable with a foot injury.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Kansas v. Texas Tech +7.5 |
|
69-59 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the #TTU Red Raiders.
The Kansas Jayhawks are the top ranked team in the country, and they are coming off an incredible triple-OT win over Oklahoma. They come into tonight's game at Texas Tech laying a bunch of points on the road, and I think the Jayhawks are due for a let down here. The Red Raiders are coming off a 76-69 loss at Iowa State, but they are 11-2 overall and have yet to lose at home.
Bookmakers haven't given Texas Tech much respect, and they've been one of the best bets so far this season, covering the spread in eight straight overall and 10 of their last 12 versus teams with a winning record. They've averaged 78.1 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting while going 8-0 at home, which is significantly better than the 70 points Kansas has averaged on the road.
The Jayhawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams, and I think they are asked to cover a few too many points on the road here. While they have won 10 straight versus Texas Tech since 2011, they've failed to cover in two of their last three at Lubbock.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Georgia v. Ole Miss -2.5 |
Top |
71-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels lost their SEC opener on the road at Kentucky, but bounced back with a big home win over Alabama on Thursday. They will host the Georgia Bulldogs tonight, and Georgia is coming off a home win over Missouri. It seems a little surprising that Mississippi is just a slight favorite, considering that Georgia is winless on the road. The Bulldogs lost their most recent road game at Florida by a score of 77-63.
Mississippi is 6-0 at home, and has averaged 82.7 points on 45.6 percent shooting in those games. Georgia has failed to cover in five straight on the road, and has average just 62.5 points on 40 percent shooting so far on the road this season.
The Rebels out-rebounded Alabama 37-30 in their last game, and F Sebastian Saiz pulled down 16 of those boards. Mississippi has averaged over 37 rebounds at home, while the Bulldogs have averaged fewer than 30 on the road.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
St. Mary's -7.5 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
14 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
St. Mary's is still unranked, despite a 14-1 record, with all 14 of those wins coming by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 73-48 road win at Loyola Marymount, and they will be on the road at Pepperdine this afternoon. There's no doubt that the Wave are a better team than the Lions, but Pepperdine just barely beat them at home in overtime last Saturday. Since then they played another close game against the 3-11 Pacific Tigers. The Gaels come in as the nation's best shooting team hitting 54.9 percent from the field. They rank second in three point field goal percentage, hitting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc. St. Mary's is 19-7 ATS in it's last 26 versus the West Coast, and it has covered in five of it's last six on the road. The Gaels should be looking at another double digit win here.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Maryland -165 v. Wisconsin |
|
63-60 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Wisconsin Badgers have failed to impress after losing their two best players from last year's team that lost to Duke in the NCAA Final. They have already lost at home to Milwaukee, Georgetown, Marquette and Purdue. Maryland is likely to prove to be a tougher opponent than any of those teams, and yet the Terrapins are only asked to cover a few points in Madison. Maryland is 14-1 overall, with it's only loss coming in a close game at North Carolina. The Terrapins beat Rutgers 88-63, and they come into Wisconsin as winners of eight straight. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus the BIG10, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Badgers on the other hand have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 versus teams with a winning record.
Take MD.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Texas A&M v. Tennessee +5.5 |
Top |
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Vols will host #21 ranked Texas A&M on Saturday, and Tennessee is getting a handful of points as a home dog. The Aggies just narrowly defeated Mississippi State on Wednesday, winning by a score of 61-60. Tennessee is 8-0 at home, and they are coming off an 83-69 win over Florida. They cleaned up on the boards in that game, out-rebounding Florida 49-40. These teams have a history of playing close games, and two of the last four games were decided in overtime. The underdog covered in all four of those games. The Vols have won seven of their last 10 home games against ranked teams, and each of those three losses came against teams ranked in the top three. I'll take a generous spread with the home team.
Take TENN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-07-16 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock -7 |
Top |
57-77 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans.
The Trojans have had a spectacular start to the season, winning 12 of 13 games. Their only loss came on the road at Texas Tech, and so far they have manhandled inferior opponents. They have kicked off conference play with consecutive road wins, and now they return home to host the 5-6 Ragin' Cajuns. Louisiana Lafayette has lost three straight on the road to Pepperdine, UCLA and Louisiana Tech. They've also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six on the road, and I don't think they're getting near enough points here in tonight's game. The Trojans have scored an average of 81.5 points on 49.6 percent shooting at home so far, and they are shooting almost 80 percent from the charity stripe. This game should be a double digit blowout win for the home team.
Take UALR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Texas Tech +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
69-76 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech had cruised through non-conference play, winning 10 of 11 games. The only loss during that span came by a score of 73-63 to Utah in Puerto Rico. They looked pretty good in a 82-74 win over Texas in their BIG12 opener, and prior to that they beat Richmond and Arkansas Little Rock by double digits. The Cyclones have had their moments, and they come in ranked #13 overall. While they've won 11 of their 13 games, they have not been very consistent. They were trailing Iowa by 21 points on their home floor back in December, but rallied to win that game by a score of 83-82. They've also won close games against Cincinnati and Colorado by a combined seven points, and when they've faced inferior opponents the results have not been impressive. They are asked to cover double digits against a Red Raiders team that is 6-0 ATS in it's last six, and 6-2 ATS in it's last eight versus BIG12 teams.
Take Texas Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan -150 |
|
99-80 |
Loss |
-150 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Central Michigan Chippewas. The Eastern Michigan Eagles will be on the road at Central Michigan tonight, and the Eagles are coming off a home loss to North Florida by a score of 82-77. The Chippewas won both meetings last season, and yet they are just a slim favorite here in tonight's game. Central Michigan comes in averaging a few more points, and shooting for a higher percentage from the field, the free throw line and from three point range. In fact they have a big edge in perimeter shooting, hitting 36.1 percent in comparison to 26.5 percent of EMU. That advantage appears to be even greater at home, where the Chippewas have hit 43.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take CMU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
Clemson v. Syracuse -5 |
|
74-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Orange will play at home versus Clemson tonight, still looking for their first win in conference play. They have lost back to back games to Pittsburgh and Miami on the road, but I like their chances of winning convincingly here at home against an inferior opponent. The Tigers are 0-3 on the road, while the Orange are 7-1 at home. Clemson has been struggling lately, coming in shooting just 37.8 percent over their last five games. Clemson has failed to cover in six of it's last eight road games, and their three road losses this season have come by a combined 40 points. This could also be a let down spot for Clemson, coming off a home win over Florida State. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
South Carolina v. Auburn +6 |
Top |
81-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Auburn Tigers. The South Carolina Gamecocks are still undefeated, but I think they are a little overrated heading into a tough road game against an SEC rival tonight. Their 13-0 record looks impressive, but they've had a soft schedule, and tonight's game should prove to be their toughest to date. Auburn is coming off an 83-77 win over Tennessee in it's SEC opener, and the Tigers are 5-1 at home. They've won six of their last seven versus South Carolina, covering the spread in six of those contests. Keep in mind that this Gamecocks team got off to a hot start last season, winning 9-of-12 in non-conference play, only to lose six of their first seven versus SEC teams. This looks like a generous cushion for the Tigers at home, and I think they'll give the Gamecocks a run for their money. Take AUB. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
Richmond v. Rhode Island -3.5 |
Top |
65-77 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Rhode Island Rams.
The Richmond Spiders are coming off back to back losses to St. Joseph's and Texas Tech, and they face another tough opponent on the road in Rhode Island tonight. The Rams are 7-2 at home, and they are coming off an 85-57 win over the Saint Louis Billikens. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 44 percent from beyond the arc in that game, out-rebounding Saint Louis 38-26. Richmond has really struggled from the free throw line on the road, hitting just over 50 percent while losing two of three. The Rams have defeated Richmond in each of the last two seasons, winning 79-74 at Richmond last year, and 66-43 at home the year before. I can't see any reason for Richmond to expect a better result this time around.
Take URI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-16 |
North Carolina -145 v. Florida State |
|
106-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Tar Heels are on the road at Florida State tonight, and they will be just a three-point favorite. The Tar Heels are still looking for their first road win, having previously lost at Northern Iowa and Texas. I don't think this Seminoles team has what it takes to take down one of the best teams in the country though, not even on their home court. Florida State is coming off an 84-75 loss to a very average Clemson team, getting killed on the boards 42-31. The Tar Heels are coming off an 86-78 home win over Georgia Tech, and they out-rebounded the Yellow Jackets 39-30 in the victory. North Carolina scores more points, and shoots for a higher percentage from the field, from the perimeter and the free throw line. The Tar Heels have won four of their last five versus Florida State, covering the spread in four of those games. Take UNC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-03-16 |
Wake Forest +14.5 v. Louisville |
Top |
57-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Louisville Cardinals come into Sunday's game against Wake Forest with an 11-2 record, but most of those wins came against inferior opponents. They've faced two quality opponents, losing both games to Michigan State and Kentucky. Louisville is asked to cover double digits at home here despite missing their starting PG and second leading scorer Trey Lewis. He suffered a severe ankle sprain in Friday's practice, and coach Rick Pitino didn't sound optimistic about his team's situation: "We are behind the 8-ball with no backup point," Pitino said. "We will see with practice what to do. Levitch is option one. Ryan off redshirt option two. There is no foreseeable third option." Wake Forest has been a good bet as an underdog, going 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. Louisville has been putting up big numbers, but those are a little inflated due to their soft schedule. The one area where they haven't looked so strong is at the free throw line, hitting just 66.7 percent at home. Wake Forest is shooting 72.8 percent from the charity stripe on the road.
Take WAKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +14 |
Top |
102-94 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be a double digit favorite on the road in San Francisco tonight, coming off a 79-79 road win over Santa Clara. The Bulldogs are 11-3 overall, and they have won both their road game so far this season. They come into tonight's game riding a five game winning streak, but it's not all good news for Gonzaga. Their big man Przemek Karnowski for the rest of the season with a back injury, and their young guards have struggled. This team is really missing the experience of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Pangos scored 17 points in an 81-70 win over the Dons when Gonzaga played at San Francisco last season. They are asked to cover an even bigger spread this time around, and this team is nowhere near as skilled as it was then. In fact this enormous number makes very little sense when you consider that Gonzaga is 2-8-1 ATS in it's last 11 road games, and 4-11 ATS in it's last 15 games against San Francisco.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Texas v. Texas Tech -4 |
Top |
74-82 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Texas Longhorns will come into this rivalry game against the Red Raiders without their leading scorer center Cameron Ridley. They didn't fare well without him in their last game, a 71-66 home loss to Connecticut. They lost the battle on the boards to the Huskies (36-34), and rebounding is going to be a challenge here against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have a bigger fan base, and that's often resulted in them being overrated when the two teams meet. This is evidenced by the fact that Texas Tech is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season, and it has covered the spread in each of the last six of those games. Their last two games were particularly impressive, beating Richmond by 15 points, and ending the unbeaten run of Arkansas Little Rock. They slaughtered the Spiders on the glass, out-rebounding Richmond 43-20. They shot 30-of-58 (51.7 percent) from the field in that game, winning 85-70. They should be able to handle a short-handed Texas team today.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Colorado +6.5 v. California |
|
65-79 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Buffaloes.
The California Golden Bears will play their first PAC12 game at home against Colorado, and Cal is a big favorite. I am not convinced that the Bears are the better team here, and I think we're getting a generous point spread considering Colorado has the better overall record, and is 2-0 on the road so far. These teams have played close games in recent seasons, with Cal taking two of the last three. The combined margin of victory in those three contests was just 11 points, and Colorado has lost it's last two visits to Berkley by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are cleaning up on the boards, averaging just shy of 40 rebounds per game. Colorado has covered the spread in four of it's last five road games, and five of it's last six in California. The Buffaloes are hitting for a higher percentage from the free throw line, and they've hit 83 percent of their free throws in their two road wins. California's last game was a blowout win over Davidson, and I think that set's them up for a let down here tonight.
Take COL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
UCLA v. Washington |
|
93-96 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins.
The Washington Huskies open conference play at home versus UCLA, and Washington has looked vulnerable. The Huskies have lost two of their last three to UC Santa Barbara and Oakland, and both of those losses came at home. Their leading scorer Andrew Andrews has been struggling, shooting just 30.8 percent from the field in his last three games. The Bruins have owned Washington, winning five straight and consecutive trips to Seattle since 2012. UCLA's only road game so far was an outright win at Gonzaga, in a game that they were listed as an 8.5 point underdog. The Bruins have also been far better within the conference, covering the spread in seven of their last nine versus the PAC12, while the Huskies are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus PAC12 opponents.
Take UCLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Utah -3.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
68-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes have always been a better home team than they have been on the road, but this year's Utes might be the best team Larry Krystkowiak has ever coached. They sure looked like world beaters in a 77-75 win over Duke at MSG. They will open PAC12 play on the road at Stanford, where they have not done well in previous seasons. The Cardinal have already lost a couple of home games though, and I haven't been impressed with their recent play. They have been brutal in conference play, failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. Utah has shot 55.4 percent from the field, scoring an average of 85.4 point over it's last five games. During that span Stanford has scored just 71 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting. The Utes also have a huge edge in free throw shooting, hitting 74.1 percent in comparison to 65.8 percent by Stanford. Utah has hit 81 percent from the free throw line on the road.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-31-15 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -5.5 |
Top |
74-85 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
The Gaels are 11-1 straight up, and 7-0 at home. Their only defeat came in a close game decided by just four points at Cal. They host BYU tonight, and the Cougars have failed to impress, and they are 0-3 on the road. BYU lost 82-77 at St. Mary's last year, and it's pretty obvious that this year's Gaels team is vastly improved, while the Cougars don't look as good as they did a year ago. St. Mary's ranks 5th nationally in opponent's scoring average, first in field goal percentage (.538), fourth in assists and second in three point field goal percentage (.452). Those numbers are even more impressive at home, where they have covered in eight of their last 10 games, and 20 of their last 27. I think the only reason why the Cougars aren't a bigger dog here, is that their school has a strong basketball history and plenty of name recognition. That isn't going to help them against a St. Mary's team that appears to be far better in all aspects of the game.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Nevada v. New Mexico -7 |
Top |
76-88 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos have lost four straight, but three of those losses came in the Diamondhead Classic Tournament in Hawaii. They are back on their home court tonight, hosting the Nevada Wolfpack, and I expect New Mexico to get back on track against an inferior opponent. The Lobos are 6-1 at home so far, with impressive wins over rivals New Mexico State and UNI. The Wolpack have lost four of five on the road, and were beaten by a whopping 19 points at Cal State Fullerton. New Mexico averages 81.6 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting at home, while the Wolfpack are shooting just 37.4 percent, scoring an average of 71 on the road. Nevada has failed to cover in four straight against teams from the Mountain West, and it should probably be a double digit dog here.
Take UNM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-29-15 |
Richmond v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
70-85 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Red Raiders have won nine of 10 overall, and they are still undefeated at home. They host the Richmond Spiders tonight, only asked to cover a handful of points. I don't expect this game to be quite as close as the betting line suggests. Richmond is 1-1 on the road, with a 20-point loss at Florida. They are going to be facing a Texas Tech front court with a big size advantage, and I think they are going to get killed on the glass. The Red Raiders are averaging 36 rebounds per game at home, while Richmond has averaged just 27.5 on the road. The home team also has an advantage at the free throw line, averaging 72.3 percent at home, while the Spiders are shooting just 58.2 percent from the line on the road. The Spiders have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG12, while Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Davidson +9.5 v. California |
Top |
60-86 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Davidson Wildcats.
Davidson is a double digit dog on the road at California tonight, and I can't quite see how anyone can expect Cal to cover such a big number. If you look at their schedule, they've looked pretty pedestrian at home, despite an 8-0 record. They beat Seattle by 14, East Carolina by eight, and IW by just a dozen. The Wildcats are in a different class than any of those teams. They are 8-2 overall, and leading scorer Jack Gibbs ranks third in the country with over 26 points per game. He is coming off a 41 point performance in the win over Morehead State last week. Davidson has been a great bet on the road, covering in 21 of it's last 27 road games. Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five at home.
Take DAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Louisville v. Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
73-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Wildcats will host the Louisville Cardinals in a huge rivalry game at Rupp Arena on Boxing Day, and Kentucky has slipped all the way to #12 in the rankings after losing in New York to the Buckeyes. At first glance it might look like a good spot to go against a Kentucky team that appears vulnerable, but I am not about to go against a team that has won 96 of it's last 100 home games under coach Cal.
Not when they are only asked to cover a couple points, and not even against a Louisville team that leads the nation in scoring margin (+30.2) and rank second in field goal percentage (.512). Why not? Well Louisville has only faced one ranked team, and that was a 71-67 loss at Michigan State. The majority of the Cardinals wins have come at home against inferior opponents.
The Wildcats have beaten Duke, and won by double digits at home against a very good Arizona State team. Freshman guard Jamaal Murray scored a career high 33 points against Ohio State, hitting 7-of-9 from beyond the arc. I still believe Kentucky is a deeper, more talented team that should be a far bigger favorite on it's home floor.
Take UK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-23-15 |
Pacific v. San Francisco -125 |
Top |
76-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons are coming off a blowout loss at St. Mary's, but they return home to face the cellar dwelling Pacific Tigers. The Tigers are coming off just their second win of the season, and they needed a buzzer beater to force overtime and another as time expired to win 73-72 at home over Santa Clara. I think this sets them up for a let down on the road at San Francisco, where they have lost four straight since 2008.
The Dons have not looked great, but have won five of seven at home. They are shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 69.6 percent from the charity stripe in San Francisco. The Tigers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and have lost all four so far this season. You can expect a strong effort from the Dons after the beating they took at St. Mary's, theyare 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
12-22-15 |
Mercer +10.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
44-64 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Mercer Bears.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky, but that sets them up for a let down here tonight at home versus Mercer. The Bears are coming in a double digit dog, and they are the team with the better record. Mercer is 9-2 overall, and it's last game was a win over the Razorbacks in Arkansas. The Buckeyes have lost three home games already to Texas Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Virginia. Mercer has a huge edge at the free throw line, hitting 74.7 percent, nearly 10 points better than OSU. They are also better on the boards, with a deeper bench and they have a size advantage. The Bears have also shot better than 40 percent from three point range over their last five games.
Take Mercer.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
55-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Commodores come into Purdue off a string of poor performances, and I don't like their chances here without starting forward Luke Kornet. The 7 foot junior is out for four to six weeks with a knee injury, and without him Vandy has not looked good. They lost to Baylor and Dayton, before winning their last game against Wofford. The Boiler Makers are 11-1, thanks to their twin towers Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons. Without Kornet the Commodores have struggled on the boards, and they face a Purdue team that out-rebounding opponents by an average margin over 12 points. Vandy has lost 10 straight to Top 25 teams, while the Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the SEC. I expect Purdue to win this game by double-digits.
Take Purdue.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-20-15 |
Evansville v. Fresno State -2 |
Top |
85-77 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home so far, and they are 8-3 overall. They've played some good teams, and have been very competitive with the best of them. They lost by just five points at Oregon, and they weren't really out-classed in a loss to the Wildcats at Arizona. They will host the Evansville Aces on Sunday, and the Aces are off to a 9-2 start, but are just 1-1 on the road. Their most recent road game was an 89-76 loss at Arkansas. Their leading scorer D.J. Balentine was just 5-of-16 from the field, and 1-of-6 from beyond the arc in that game. They are shooting just 20% from three-point range on the road, and they are really getting killed on the boards averaging just 26.5 rebounds. The Bulldogs are likely to own the glass here at home, and I think it's a bargain getting Fresno State as a short favorite here.
Take FRES.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-20-15 |
Davidson v. Pittsburgh -4.5 |
Top |
69-94 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The 8-1 Pittsburgh Panthers are a small favorite against the 7-1 Davidson Wildcats when the two teams meet at Madison Square Garden Sunday. Davidson is a pretty good team that scores a lot of points, but I think the Wildcats are going to run into a brick wall here against an elite team from the toughest conference in the country. Both these teams are averaging over 85 points per game, but the Wildcats aren't even close when it comes to defense. The Panthers are allowing opponents to average just 63 points per game, 15 points fewer than the Wildcats. The Panthers are also shooting for a significantly higher percentage from the field (49.9%), from three-point range (41.3%), and they are shooting just shy of 80 percent from the free throw line. Davidson has failed to cover the spread in six of it's last eight versus ACC teams, and I think it will come up short again in New York. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Texas v. Stanford +2 |
Top |
75-73 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Texas Longhorns will play their first true road game at Stanford tonight, and the Cardinal have been very strong at home. The Cardinal are coming off a 79-60 home win over DePaul. The Longhorns have lost to Michigan, Texas A&M and Washington. The Longhorns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five road games. Stanford won 74-71 at Texas last season, and two of the last three meetings between these teams have required overtime. The Longhorns have no business being favorites on the road in Northern California, and my money is on Stanford,
The STAN.
GL.
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Tulsa v. Oregon State -113 |
Top |
71-76 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers have won five of seven games so far, and their only losses came to Kentucky and Valparaiso. They are a slight favorite at home tonight against Tulsa, coming off a double digit home win over Cal State Fullerton. The Beavers shot 48 percent from the field, and 8-of-20 from three point range in last night's win. Tulsa has impressed with a 7-3 start, but the Golden Hurricane have had a pretty soft schedule. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and this looks like a particularly tough spot against a tough, and underrated opponent. Take ORST. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Oakland v. Washington -8.5 |
Top |
97-83 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies.
The Huskies have won four straight, and they are 5-0 at home so far. Washington will host the Oakland Grizzlies on Saturday, and Oakland has been a bit of a disappointment this year. The Grizzlies are just 2-3 on the road, and they appear to be overmatched here at Washington. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. They shot 10-of-25 from the three point line in a 92-62 win over the Montana Grizzlies in their last game. They owned the boards in that game, and with their tremendous size, they normally clean up on the glass. I like the Huskies to win by double digits here versus an inferior opponent.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Northwestern -170 v. DePaul |
|
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Wildcats are 9-1, with their only loss coming to the North Carolina Tar Heels. They are one the road Saturday at DePaul, and the Blue Demons have really struggled here in 2015. DePaul is coming off back to back double digit losses to Stanford and UALR. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East, while the Blue Demons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Northwestern should have a big advantage on the glass, averaging almost 35 rebounds per game. Senior center Alex Olah scored 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting in his last start, and he's likely to have a big game against an undersized DePaul team.
Take NW.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
North Carolina v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
89-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins. The Bruins will host the #11 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, looking for another big upset at home. It was just two weeks ago that UCLA beat the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats at home. Last weekend they upset the Gonzaga Bulldogs winning 71-66 on the road. The Tar Heels on the other hand have lost both road games so far at UNI and Texas. Making matters worse for UNC, senior forward Kennedy Meeks is out for the Tar Heels. The Bruins are starting to develop a reputation as Giant Killers, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record. Take UCLA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Utah v. Duke -6.5 |
Top |
77-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Utah Utes are an underdog on the road at Duke on Saturday afternoon, and this will be the first meeting since last year's tournament. The Blue Devils won that game by a score of 63-57, but that was at a neutral site. I'm expecting are more one-sided affair here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Utes have not done well on the road, losing by 17 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game. They also lost a neutral site game by a 24 point margin versus the Miami Hurricanes. Amile Jefferson will not play for Duke, but they didn't miss him in a 99-65 win over Georgia Southern. They shot 53 percent from the field and 41.percent from beyond the arc in that game. Freshman Brandon Ingram stepped up scoring 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 versus teams from the PAC-12, and seven of their last eight following a win.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
12-16-15 |
New Mexico State v. New Mexico -9 |
Top |
61-79 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos will host rivals New Mexico State tonight, and they are asked to cover a nine point spread. I like the Lobos to win this one by double digits. These teams met earlier this year, and UNM won that one by a score of 83-74. The Lobos are 5-0 at home, and their last game was an impressive 76-57 win over the Northern Illinois Panthers. While these rivals have played their fair share of close games in the past, not many of those have come at Albuquerque. The Aggies lost here last year by a score of 62-47. They are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Mexico, and 2-10-2 ATS overall in the last 14 meetings.
Take UNM. GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Northern Illinois +13 v. Ohio State |
Top |
54-67 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have a strong basketball tradition, and a brand that bettors are familiar with. Perhaps that's why they are a double-digit favorite tonight against the 7-1 Northern Illinois Huskies. When you look at the numbers, nothing else makes sense. The Buckeyes have a losing record, and they are coming off a 20-point loss to Connecticut. They shot just 35.7 percent in that game, and went 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. The Huskies are still flying under the radar, but they've been a great bet on the road going 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Huskies are coming off their first loss of the season at Missouri, but that game was close (78-71). They should be able to make this game interesting against an overrated OSU team.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Old Dominion v. Richmond -5 |
|
61-77 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Richmond Spiders.
The Spiders will be just a small favorite at home tonight against Old Dominion, and they've been pretty impressive in recent homes games. They are coming off back to back home wins over Longwood (77-59) and Northern Illinois (82-67). The Monarchs are 0-3 on the road, and they come in as losers of five of their last six. They've lost five straight visits to Richmond, failing to cover in four of those five defeats. The Monarchs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the Spiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Take RICH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-15-15 |
DePaul v. Stanford -7 |
Top |
60-79 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Cardinal will host the DePaul Blue Demons tonight, and this looks like a complete mismatch. Stanford is 4-3 overall, but their losses have come to powerhouse schools in SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They are coming off back to back home wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth. Friday's win over Dartmouth was a defensive clinic, holding the Big Green to 50 points in a 64-50 victory. The Blue Demons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. They are coming off a 66-44 loss to UALR, and were an abysmal 1-of-9 from beyond the arc, and 9-of-16 (56.3 %) from the free throw line. DePaul has been totally out-classed when facing top tier teams, going 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
71-66 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will host UCLA on Saturday, and the Bruins have won three straight, with one of those wins coming against the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Gonzaga doesn't look like the same team after losing a pair of senior guards in Pangos and Bell. After losing at home to Arizona, they just about lost again in a 68-51 win over Montana on Tuesday. They shot just 40 percent from the field, and hit 4-of-15 from beyond the arc. "We're very lucky to get out of this with a win," coach Mark Few said after the game. Despite their struggles, they are asked to cover a big number here. The Bruins have covered the spread in four of their last five road games, while the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. Senior center Przemek Karnowski has missed the Bulldogs last three games with a sore back, and he isn't expected to play tonight. "He's a huge, huge part of who we are," said Few. "I think these guys are performing admirably without one of their best, most important players out there on the floor."
Take UCLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Cincinnati v. Xavier -5 |
Top |
55-65 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
These are two teams that are quite familiar with one another, but in recent seasons the Musketeers have had the better of this rivalry. Last year Xavier upset the Bearcats in Cincinnati by a score of 59-57. The year before they crushed them at home by a score of 64-47. This year's Musketeers team might be the best ever, and they come into tonight's game with a 9-0 record, with signature wins over Michigan, Dayton and USC. None of those games were close, all decided by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 90-55 win over Wright State, and they were 10-of-21 from beyond the arc in the victory. The Musketeers have been a great bet at home, going 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games.
Take XAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
St. Mary's +6 v. California |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. The California Bears are one of the better teams in the PAC12, and they are sexy pick for bettors, who are easily impressed by the fact that they score a lot of points. Cal will face a tough test this Saturday though, hosting the undefeated Gaels. So far this season, when they've played good teams they have failed to impress. The Bears lost 72-58 to San Diego State in Las Vegas, shooting just 37.5 percent from the field in that game. They also fell 94-90 to the Richmond Spiders, blowing a late lead. The Gaels have cruised to a 6-0 record, and they have double digit wins over Stanford, U.C. Davis and UCI. While this will be their toughest test to date, history tells us that we should see a close game here. St. Mary's has won both previous meetings, and those games were each decided by single digits. The Gaels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, while Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five home games.
Take SMC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Utah v. Wichita State -135 |
Top |
50-67 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wichita State Shockers.
The Shockers have had a tough start to the season, with a record of 4-4. One of the reasons for their struggles has been injuries, and they really missed Fred Van Fleet. Their starting PG is back and healthy now though, and he scored 17 points with four rebounds and four assists in a win over UNLV on Thursday. Wichita State will host Utah on Saturday afternoon, and this is a revenge spot for the Shockers, who lost by a single point at Utah last season. The Utes are a great team at home, but they are nowhere near as good on the road. Utah is 1-4 ATS in it's last five non-conference games, and 2-5 ATS in it's last seven away from home. The Utes looked pretty sloppy in their last game, trailing IPFW by seven points in the first half, and allowing the Matadors to score 36 first half points. The Shockers are far better defensively, and they are a dominant team on their home court.
Take WICH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Tennessee v. Butler -13 |
|
86-94 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Butler Bulldogs. The Tennessee Volunteers are in a tough spot here on the road today playing Butler. The Vols haven't played since losing to Nebraska at the end of November, and since then they have lost starting guard Robert Hubbs III to a knee injury. He is averaging over 15 points per game, and his absence leaves a big hole for Tennessee to fill. Butler is flying high, with a 7-1 record, and scoring over 90 points per game during that span. The Bulldogs shot over 54 percent from the field and 10-of-21 from beyond the arc in a 93-66 win over VMI in their last game. The Vols are just 5-11-3 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games, while Butler has covered the spread in four it's last five versus opponents from the SEC.
Take BUTLER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-09-15 |
Dayton v. Vanderbilt -8.5 |
|
72-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The #21 ranked Commodores will host the unranked Dayton Flyers tonight, and Vandy is a sizable favorite. The Commodores have lost two of their last three, and they are coming off a 69-67 loss at Baylor on Sunday. I like their chances of bouncing back here at home, where they have won all four of their games so far this season. They won their last home game by a whopping 50 points against the Detroit Titans. Dayton has only faced one ranked opponent this year, losing by a score of 90-61 to Xavier at a neutral site. It's going to be tough to do better than that on the road against a Vanderbilt team with superior free throw shooting, three-point shooting, defense and rebounding.
Take VANDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-09-15 |
Nebraska +5.5 v. Creighton |
|
67-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The Creighton Blue Jays will host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Omaha tonight, and the Blue Jays are asked to cover a sizable point spread. Keep in mind that the Huskers are just stone's throw away from their home in Lincoln, and they have done well so far with a 6-3 record, losing a pair of close games at neutral sites to Miami and Cincinnati. The trends and past meetings will all favor Creighton, but this isn't the same Blue Jays team now that Dougie McBuckets has moved on to the NBA. Nebraska has the edge when it comes to free throw shooting, hitting 72.5 percent from the charity stripe. They also have and edge when it comes to defense and rebounding. Making matters worse for the Blue Jays, starting forward Cole Huff is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Huff is the team's leading scorer averaging 12.4 points per game.
Take NEB.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-08-15 |
Maryland -130 v. Connecticut |
Top |
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Terps stock has dropped after a loss to North Carolina at Chapel Hill, but I was actually impressed with Maryland in that game. Particularly the play of PG Melo Trimble, who scored 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting. The Tar Heels won that game by a score of 89-81, but it was actually quite close until the final minute. They face the Connecticut Huskies at Madison Square Garden tonight, and they beat Georgetown here on November 17. They Huskies didn't look good in losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse, and it won't get any easier against the #6 ranked Terrapins. Maryland has the better shooters, and they were on fire in their last game hitting better than 67 percent.
Take MD.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-15 |
CS-Northridge v. San Francisco -6.5 |
Top |
61-65 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons came out flat for their last home game, trailing Eastern Washington by 11 at halftime. They out-scored the Eagles 48-41 in the second half, but still came up short losing 81-77. They followed that up with another ugly loss on the road to Montana, but a home game against the 2-6 CS Northridge Matadors appears to present an opportunity to get back on track. The Matadors have been blown out in back to back losses to Pepperdine and UCLA, and they turned the ball over 37 times in those two games. Bettors haven't made any money backing this team, as the Matadors are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. I expect the Dons to win this one by double digits.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-05-15 |
Northern Iowa +3.5 v. Richmond |
Top |
67-82 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Iowa Panthers.
The Richmond Spiders are just 4-3, and they are coming off an ugly 20-point loss at Florida. The Spiders shot just 21-of-62 (33.9%) from the field in that game. Still they come into tonight's home game asked to cover points against a Northern Iowa team that is on a five game winning streak. One of those five wins was an upset of the #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels. The Panthers have played the tougher schedule, yet they come in shooting the ball for a far higher percentage from the field, from beyond the arc, and almost 10 percent better at the charity stripe. They have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 road games, and last year they won nine of their 13 road games outright, and those losses came at VCU, Wichita State and Evansville (by three points). I don't believe the Spiders have any business being asked to cover a handful of points here versus this team.
Take UNI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
BYU +9 v. Utah |
Top |
75-83 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Utah Utes are 5-1, but I haven't been impressed with their body of work so far. I bet against them when they played San Diego State at home on November 16. They failed to cover, winning by just five points. That game saw several lead changes, and it could have gone either way. They have since been blown out in a neutral site game against Miami, and won a close game against Temple. BYU has won four of five, with their one loss coming by a single point on the road at Long Beach State. That loss isn't as bad as it sounds, as Long Beach State is a pretty competitive team. In fact last night they lost by just four points to the Aztecs, who were neck and neck with the Utes in that mid November game at Utah. The Utes have won two of the last three meetings between the two teams, but two of those games were close, decided by four points or fewer.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Florida State v. Iowa -5.5 |
Top |
75-78 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes are 2-0 at home, and they are coming off a very impressive win over Wichita State. Iowa shot 53.8 percent from the field, and 8-of-18 from three point range, winning 84-61. The Seminoles are playing their first road game of the year, and they have won four of five versus unranked teams from smaller conferences. Florida State hasn't fared as well against Power 5 teams, especially the BIG10. They have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 versus BIG10 teams. Iowa holds an edge in three-point shooting as well as free throw percentage, which is even more significant considering their strength of schedule. They also have a massive size advantage, and should have little trouble dominating the boards.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Wyoming v. Denver -5 |
Top |
68-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Pioneers.
The Pioneers have won five straight, and all five of those wins have come by double digits. They host a 4-2 Wyoming team tonight that hasn't impressed much in the early going. The Cowboys lost their only road game this season by a 15 point margin at Indiana State, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games dating back to last year. The Pioneers have won five straight home meetings versus Wyoming, going 3-1-1 ATS in those games. They are only asked to cover a handful of points in tonight's contest, and this year's Denver team might just be far better than it was in past seasons.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Tulsa v. Oklahoma State -155 |
Top |
66-56 |
Loss |
-155 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Cowboys host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight, and Tulsa is coming off back to back losses to South Carolina and Arkansas Little Rock. They were just 20-of-51 (39%) from the field in that game, and that's not likely going to be good enough here in Stillwater. Recent meetings between these teams have been close, but Oklahoma State has won four of the last five. Oklahoma State has a higher scoring average, shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, rebound per game average etc. The most significant stat though is that they are hitting almost 10% higher with free throws. The Golden Hurricane are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus Big 12 teams, and the Cowboys are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-02-15 |
Wisconsin v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
66-58 |
Loss |
-104 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Wisconsin Badgers were the runner up in last year's NCAA Tournament Final, but they have really struggled after losing Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They really struggled in their last game at Oklahoma, losing the Sooners by a score of 65-48. They shot an abysmal 23.5 percent from the field in that game, and hit just 7-of-33 three point shots. It doesn't get any easier tonight, playing the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. The Orange have won 63 of their last 64 non conference home games, and they have looked quite good so far, coming off consecutive wins over ranked teams. They beat the Connecticut Huskies 79-76 on Thanksgiving Day, and then defeated Texas A&M 74-67 the next day. Michael Gbinije comes into tonight's game averaging just under 20 points per game, and he's shooting better than 50 percent from beyond the arc so far this season.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-02-15 |
Louisville v. Michigan State -5.5 |
Top |
67-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The #3 ranked Spartans host the 5-0 Louisville Cardinals, and I like MSU at home here. The Spartans have proved that they can play with the nation's elite teams, winning the Wooden Legacy with a 77-64 victory over Providence. They also beat Kansas by a score of 79-73 at the United Center in early November. We really haven't seen what Louisville can do, because they have yet to play a top level opponent. It was Michigan State that knocked Louisville out of last year's tournament, and since then the Cardinals have lost Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear. The Spartans come in with a significant edge in three-point percentage, as well as free throw percentage. Those numbers are even more significant when you consider that they've had the tougher schedule. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG10, while the Spartans have covered in six of their last seven home games.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-01-15 |
San Diego State -178 v. Long Beach State |
|
76-72 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 25 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
After cashing in back to back blockbuster winners on San Diego State, I decided to hold off when they played West Virginia. They would lose that game by a whopping 22 points. I like their chances of getting back on track tonight at Long Beach State. The 49ers got off to a good start, beating BYU and Seton Hall, but they've now lost three straight. They were crushed by Virginia, and lost consecutive games to Oklahoma State by an average of 5.5 points. The Aztecs are shooting the ball far better from the free-throw line, and that could make a huge difference considering how the NCAA rules are now being enforced. They should also have an edge on the boards. We know this Aztecs team can play on the road, after seeing them come close to upsetting the Utes in Utah in their only previous road game.
Take SDST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-01-15 |
Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -5.5 |
|
81-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Eastern Washington Eagles were a giant killer last year, with several upset wins over teams from bigger conferences. Their most high profile win came against the Hoosiers in Indiana, but they also beat the Dons in San Francisco. This isn't the same Eastern Washington team though, losing two of it's best players in Tyler Harvey and Drew Brandon. They've played twice on the road, losing by 18 at Mississippi State, and by eight at Seattle. The Dons appear to be an improved team, with a 4-2 record so far. One of those losses was a close game on the road at Fresno State, which is an impressive result all things considered. San Francisco should have a big edge on the boards, averaging over 10 more rebounds per game than the Eagles, and they are also holding opponents to an average of 63 points, 11 fewer than the Eagles. The Dons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine versus opponents from the Big Sky, and this looks like a short line.
Take SAN FRAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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12-01-15 |
Louisiana Tech +5 v. Memphis |
|
68-94 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the LA-Tech Bulldogs.
The Memphis Tigers may have beaten the Ohio State Buckeyes in a neutral site game in Miami, but that isn't quite as impressive as the undefeated Louisiana Tech Bulldogs beating them convincingly in Columbus. While Memphis needed overtime, the Bulldogs opened up an early lead, and never let the Buckeyes come back, winning 82-74. "This is obviously a big win for us and our program," Louisiana Tech first-year coach Eric Konkol said. The Bulldogs are getting points on the road at Memphis tonight, and I haven't been as impressed by overall body of work of the Tigers. Memphis has already lost at home to the likes of the Texas Arlington Mavericks, as well as a home loss to Oklahoma. The Bulldogs have a better shooting percentage and have played stronger defense, with a similar strength of schedule. Memphis is 0-5 ATS in it's last five home games, and it looks like they shouldn't be asked to cover a bunch of points here against an undefeated opponent.
Take LA-Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-29-15 |
Providence +8 v. Michigan State |
|
64-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Providence Friars.
The Friars are coming off an upset win over the Arizona Wildcats, and they are getting a bunch of points tonight against Michigan State. I think Providence can hang with the Spartans here in a neutral site game in California. Both teams are undefeated, but the friars appear to be peaking at the right time. They shot 50 percent from the field in the win over Arizona, and went 5-of-15 from three-point range. Kris Dunn scored 19 points on 7-of-9 shooting, with eight assists in just 21 minutes in the win over the Wildcats. His minutes were limited after he picked up a few early fouls. The Friars are an astounding 11-1 in their last 12 neutral site games, while the Spartans have failed to cover in six straight games versus opponents from the Big East.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-29-15 |
Dayton v. Xavier -145 |
Top |
61-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
Both Xavier and Dayton come into Sunday's Advocare Invitational Final unbeaten, but the Musketeers have been far more impressive. Xavier has wins over Michigan and USC, and their last five wins have all come by double digits. The Flyers have yet to face a ranked team, and their last win came in a close game, defeating Monmouth by a score of 73-70.
Dayton shot just 4-of-18 from three point range in that game, and a pedestrian 68.2 percent from the free throw line. With the NCAA putting a heavy emphasis on fouls early in the season, so many games are being decided at the free throw line. That bodes well for the Musketeers, who's 76.8 percent average this season is significantly better than Dayton's.
Xavier blew out the Trojans by a score of 54-27 in the first half of their last game, and then took the pedal off the gas in the second half of an 87-77 win. "Had our best half of the year," coach Chris Mack said. "Our guys were ready to play. We're just excited to play in the championship game."
The Musketeers have won three of their last four versus Dayton, and they appear to be the better team here this year given their more impressive overall body of work.
Take XAVIER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-29-15 |
Wichita State v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes. I am a big fan of the Wichita State Shockers, but they are in a tough spot here on Sunday facing the Iowa Hawkeyes in Orlando. The Shockers are missing starting guard Fred Van Fleet, as well as his backup Landry Shamet. They suffered another big loss in their last game, with starting forward Anton Grady suffering a serious spinal injury. Grady was knocked unconscious, and taken off the court on a stretcher. With a decimated lineup, the Shockers would lose by a score of 64-60 to a pretty poor Crimson Tide team.
The Hawkeyes have also lost their last two games, but those defeats came to quality opponents in Dayton and #17 ranked Notre Dame. Both of those games were close, and Iowa coach Fred McCaffery put it in perspective: "When you're really good, you're close to struggling," "When you're struggling, you're close to being really good. We played two really good teams right to the wire."
The Shockers are going to need a big game from Rob Baker if they hope to have any chance of hanging with Iowa, and Baker scored just two points and was 0-for-7 from the field the last time he played Iowa. Wichita State has failed to cover in six of it's last seven non conference games, and I don't like it's chances of overcoming injuries here on Sunday.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-27-15 |
Texas v. Michigan -140 |
|
72-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan is coming off a big win over Charlotte, scoring 102 points, shooting an incredible 61.9 percent from the field. They also hit 12-of-23 from three-point range, and 85.7 percent from the charity stripe. The Wolverines will face the Texas Longhorns tonight, and Texas hasn't impressed during a 2-2 start to the season. Michigan has a huge edge at the free throw line, coming in hitting over 78 percent so far this season. Texas has shot just 37.5 percent from the field, and 65 percent from the charity stripe. The Wolverines won the last meeting between the two teams by a scored of 79-65 in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. They were 14-of-28 from beyond the arc in that game, and while the faces have changed, perimeter shooting remains a strong point for Michigan. The Wolverines have covered the spread in seven of their last eight versus teams from the BIG12, and Texas have failed to cover in six of it's last seven non-conference games.
Take MICH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-27-15 |
California v. San Diego State +4 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 14 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Aztecs will be the underdog against #14 ranked California when the two teams meet in Las Vegas tonight. Cal has cruised to four easy wins so far, but they have yet to prove themselves against quality opposition. The same can not be said for the Aztecs, who played a close game on the road at #16 ranked Utah two weeks ago. That was a game that saw several lead changes, and the Utes barely escaped with an 81-76 win. I got the win with San Diego State as the underdog in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"San Diego State won it's opener by double digits, but this early in the season it's difficult to read into results with such a small sample size. One thing that immediately stands out about this game was the play of freshman PG Jeremy Helmsley who scored 20 points in his Aztecs debut. "It's a feeling I can't really describe," said Hemsley, who's from Rancho Cucamonga. "As soon as I woke up today I knew it was going to be a good day. I'm excited for this. But at the end of the day it's just the first game. We just have to continue to do what we do." The point guard position was a weakness for San Diego State last year, and if Helmsley is as good as he's expected to be, they could be a better team this season."
Helmsley scored 16 points with six assists in 28 minutes in a 79-54 win over ECU on Monday, and that might tell us a little about how the Aztecs measure up against Cal. The Bears played the Pirates a few days earlier, and struggled in a game that was close right up until the final buzzer. "We just didn't move the ball well. We got stagnant," said Tyrone Wallace.
Wallace and the Bears are facing one of the nation's top defensive teams here tonight, and they could have a tough time. The last time these teams faced each other the Aztecs won 64-63. San Diego State has covered in 10 of it's last 14 versus opponents from the PAC12.
Take SDST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-23-15 |
LSU -5 v. Marquette |
Top |
80-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 47 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers. The #23 ranked Tigers are undefeated at 3-0, and they are facing a Marquette team that has lost two of three to start the season. The Tigers are just a small favorite here, and I think the bookmakers are way off. Perhaps Marquette is getting the benefit of the doubt because their name is synonymous with a with a winning program, but that was in the past, not necessarily the present. This is a school that lost 13 of it's final 16 games last year, and has already struggled at the beginning of this season. They are coming off an 89-61 loss to unranked Iowa, shooting just 38.6 percent from the field and turning the ball over 19 times in that defeat. The Tigers on the other hand shot better than 50 percent from the field in a 78-66 home win over South Alabama in their last game. LSU is 6-2-1 in it's last nine non-conference games, while the Golden Eagles have failed to cover in 14 of their last 17 overall. I expect the Tigers to win by double digits. Take LSU. GL, Jesse Schule
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11-22-15 |
Valparaiso v. Oregon -4.5 |
Top |
67-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The #25 ranked Oregon Ducks are off to a good start, winning their first three games which includes a 74-67 win over #16 ranked Baylor. They host the Valparaiso Crusaders on Sunday, and the Ducks are asked to cover just a handful of points. I think Valparaiso is in way over it's head here, even though they are 5-0 to start the season. The Crusaders haven't played anybody, which is my biggest issue with this team. They play in the Horizon, and last year they racked up a ton of wins against lesser teams. In fact they only lost five games all year, but never faced a single ranked opponent until bowing out of the tournament in their first game versus Maryland. During the regular season, their non-conference schedule only saw them face two teams from any of the larger conferences, and neither of those teams were anywhere near as good as Oregon. They lost at Missouri and at home to New Mexico, and both games were blowouts decided by double digits.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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