Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -122 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -122 The Key: The Rockies are due to bust out here against Bronson Arroyo, who has a 4.95 ERA over his last three starts. He was rocked for 6 runs the last time he faced the Rockies and has been touched for at least 6 runs in three of his last five starts against them. Nicasio has held the D-backs to two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against them. The Rockies are 5-1 in Nicasio's last six home starts, 7-1 in his last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game and 6-0 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Nicasio has a 3.60 ERA in six home starts, including a 2.50 ERA over his last three. Take Colorado. |
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06-05-14 | Oakland A's v. New York Yankees -136 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
6* AL *CA$H COW* on Yankees -136 The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) Tanaka has been baffling everyone, and I expect this trend to continue. The Yankees are 8-1 in Tanaka's last 9 starts, including 4-0 at home during this stretch. The Yankees are 45-19 in their last 64 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Athletics are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog. |
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06-05-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Detroit Tigers -141 | 7-3 | Loss | -141 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
6* AL CA$H COW on Tigers -141 The Key: (Condensed writeup due to early start) The Blue Jays have been rolling, but I expect Verlander to silence them today. The Tigers are 64-28 in Verlander's last 92 home starts and 38-15 in his last 53 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Blue Jays, including 3-0 in his last three overall and 3-0 in his last three at home. Happ isn't in the same category as Verlander, and the Tigers are 18-6 in their last 24 home games versus a left-handed starter. |
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06-04-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Diego Padres -110 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Padres -110 The Key: This is a nice spot to back the Padres. This is the final game of a 10-game road trip for Pittsburgh, and the Pirate players can't wait to get home. Because they've already won this series, they won't take the field with the same level of focus and intensity. San Diego has been an excellent investment in spots such as this. The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series. They are 12-4 the last two seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent. You also want to take favorites of -110 or higher that have an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games and a batting average of .250 or lower on the season when they are matched up against an NL starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20. Doing so has produced a 90-36 (71.4%) mark the last five seasons. Liriano and Kennedy are trending in opposite directions. Liriano has a 5.74 ERA over his last three starts while Kennedy has an ERA of 2.89 over his last three starts. Take San Diego. |
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06-03-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -155 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB Mound Mismatch Game of the Year on Rockies -155 The Key: Colorado has the edge on the mound with Jorge De La Rosa, who is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.80 over his last seven starts. The only time he didn't earn a victory during this stretch was when rain suspended his outing against San Francisco on May 22. The Rockies have lost their last four, but they are giving the ball to the right guy. They are 18-0 the last two seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss. They are also 10-0 during this span in his starts following two or more consecutive team defeats. De La Rosa has never lost to the D-backs at Coors Field. The Rockies are 10-0 in his home starts against them, during which he has posted a 1.79 ERA. Arizona's Chase Anderson is making his first start at flighty Coors. Pitchers without much experience there tend to struggle. He'll have a rough time with a lineup that is batting .342 and averaging 7.0 runs per game at home. Take the Rockies. |
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06-02-14 | Kansas City Royals v. St. Louis Cardinals -147 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -147 The Key: The Cardinals are an impressive 73-28 the last three seasons in home games against teams that have a losing record. The Cards have dropped five of seven and are struggling at the plate, but the numbers suggest that now's the time to back them. Consider that St. Louis is 14-1 the last three seasons in home games following a stretch where it has lost five or six of its last seven games. It is also 17-2 in home games the last three seasons after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span. The Cardinals are 8-1 in Miller's last nine home starts versus a team with a losing record and 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Royals are 6-15 in Duffy's last 21 starts versus a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-6 in their last seven versus St. Louis. |
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06-01-14 | San Diego Padres v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 122 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
7* Interleague Run Line Rout of the Year on White Sox -1.5 The Key: The White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series and have won these by an average of 4.2 runs. They are also 9-2 this season when playing with double revenge, winning by an average of 2.5 run in these contests. Chris Sale is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the season and has a 0.56 ERA over his last three starts. He gives the Sox a significant advantage considering San Diego's Eric Stults is 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA on the road. You want to fade road underdogs priced at +150 or more following a win by two runs or less when they are matched up against an opponent that has scored three runs or fewer in four straight games. Doing so has produced a 44-6 mark since 1997. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 2.9 runs. The White Sox are batting .274 and averaging 5.2 runs per game against lefty starters. They should get to Stults and Sale should take care of the rest. |
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06-01-14 | Texas Rangers v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
6* Interleague Total of the Week on Rangers/Nationals Under 7 The Key: Yu Darvish has some of the best stuff in baseball, and he should have a ton of success here against a Washington club that isn't familiar with his stuff. In fact, only one Nationals regular has faced Darvish, who has a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.83 ERA in six interleague starts. The "under" is 5-1 in Darvish's six interleague starts and 19-6-2 in his last 27 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Washington's Tanner Roark has a 2.45 ERA over his last four starts while holding opponents to a .183 average. He has a 1.19 ERA in 12 career home games and has given up just one run in 19 innings of interleague action. The "under" is 5-0-1 in Roark's last six home starts. Take the Under. |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -3 The Key: The home team has dominated this matchup, going 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 19 points. The Thunder have had their way with the Spurs in Oklahoma City where they are 9-0 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. We saw the way the Thunder responder following a pair of blowout losses in San Antonio in the first two games of the series, and I expect a similar response tonight. Lay the points. |
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05-31-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers -140 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
7* NL Non-Division Game of the Year on Dodgers -140 The Key: Despite winning the first two games of this series, the Pirates are still only 7-15 in their last 22 road games. They are 5-13 in their last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 105-229 in their last 334 road games versus a team with a winning record. The Pirates are also 3-9 in their last 12 Game 3s of a series. It is also worth noting that Pittsburgh is 16-35 in road games following two or more consecutive wins under manager Hurdle. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and I love them here behind Ryu. The Dodgers are 7-0 in the southpaw's last 7 starts versus the NL Central and 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is batting a dismal .210 versus lefty starters this season. LA has a much better chance of getting to Cumpton as it is batting .265 versus right-handed starters. The Pirates are only 27-67 in the last 94 meetings. Take the Dodgers. |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +7.5 The Key: I don’t see an Indiana team that has been knocked out of the playoffs by Miami the past two seasons going down without a fight. Down 2-3 in their opening series, they beat Atlanta on the road and obviously went on to win the series. This is a team that has come up big with its back against the wall, as we saw in Game 5. This is also a team that has been good on the road in these playoffs, going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7. The Pacers lost by 12 points in each of the series’ first two meeting in Miami, but I expect a much stronger performance tonight with their season on the line. Miami defeated Brooklyn by double-digits in its first two home games of that series. However, it won by just two points at home in the closeout game. The Pacers have covered 5 of 8 games when catching points in these playoffs (according to the closing line). Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games following a road games over the last two seasons. It is also 1-8 ATS this season following a game where it made 12 3-points shots or more. Take the points. |
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05-30-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cleveland Indians -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Interleague Annihilator on Indians -145 The Key: Colorado isn't the same team on the road where it is batting .190 over its last nine games. Look for its road woes to continue with Cleveland sending Kluber to the hill. The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA in five starts this month and leads the majors with 48 strikeouts over that span. The Indians are 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts, 11-3 in his last 14 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts. The Rockies are an atrocious 37-78 in their last 115 interleague road games and 5-21 in their last 26 interleague games versus teams with a losing record. The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 interleague home games versus teams with a winning record. Colorado's Nicasio has been decent, but hasn't been dominant like Kluber. The Rockies are 3-7 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts versus teams with a losing record. Take the Tribe. |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -4.5 | Top | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -4.5 The Key: The Spurs remember all too well what happened in 2012. They won the first two games of the Western Conference finals against the Thunder, then lost four straight. The haunting memory of that outcome assures us San Antonio will be ready to go here. The home team has dominated this matchup, going 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with an average winning margin of 17.2 points. In addition, the Spurs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six home games, winning these by an average of 23.0 points. The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in all home playoff games since 1996. They are also 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of this season versus good teams like the Thunder that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points per game or more. The Spurs have won by an average score of 110.9 to 92.3 in these games. Lastly, you want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60% to 75%. Doing so has produced a 120-72 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points. |
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05-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 | 6-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -127 The Key: The Cardinals fell last night, but they are a tremendous 67-29 following a loss going back to the beginning of last season. They are 38-15 in their last 53 following a defeat. In addition, St. Louis is a nasty 40-16 in its last 56 at home, and it has even been dominant at home versus top-notch pitching. The Cards are 32-11 since the start of last season in home games versus NL starters with an ERA of 3.50 or lower. They have won these games by an average score of 4.6 to 2.5. San Francisco's Vogelsong had an ERA of 3.20, but it should be noted that his road ERA is 5.31. He also has a 5.40 ERA in nine starts versus the Cardinals, and his clubs are 1-3 all-time in St. Louis. Garcia has the superior stuff and enters this contest with tons of confidence following a strong performance in Cincinnati. He's has a 0.81 ERA over his last three starts against the Giants. The Cardinals are 14-5 in Garcia's last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Heat/Pacers Under 185 The Key: Indiana picked up its defense in Game 4 after allowing the Heat to shoot above 50% in each of the previous three games. It held Miami to 46.4% shooting, but we saw yet another "over" in the series because it sent Miami to the foul line 34 times. The Pacers were the top defensive team in the NBA during the regular-season, and I expect them to put forth their best defensive effort of the series in the face of elimination. Miami would love to close out this series so it can get some extra rest prior to the Finals so it will be lacking no defensive effort either. With all that's at stake, we should see a defensive battle that comes in "under" the number. The "under" is 4-0 in the Pacers' last four after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 34-15 "under" when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The "under" is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana. |
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05-28-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Milwaukee Brewers -119 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Interleague Annihilator on Brewers -119 The Key: Gallardo delivered a walkoff double last night, and I expect him to follow up that clutch hit with a clutch performance on the mound. He missed his last start due to an ankle injury, and the extra time off should do him some good. The Brewers are 4-0 in his last four starts on seven or more days of rest. He should also benefit from facing a team that isn't familiar with his stuff. The Brewers are 6-1 in Gallardo's last seven starts in the third game of a series and 40-16 in his last 56 starts as a favorite. Milwaukee, however, is familiar with Norris from his days in Houston. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has a 4.45 ERA (Gallardo has a 2.90 ERA at home). He has also struggled at Miller Park, where he has a 6.23 ERA in four career starts. Bet the Brew Crew. |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -2.5 The Key: Following a decisive Game 3 victory, the Thunder head into Game 4 with momentum and confidence on their side. You might recall that Oklahoma City lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight victories to win the series so that only adds to its confidence level. Dating back to that series, the Thunder are on an 8-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs. All of these victories have come by at least six points with four by 12 or more. The Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The Thunder are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games versus teams winning more than 60% of their games on the road. Lay the points. |
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05-27-14 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals -131 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Month on Royals -131 The Key: The Royals go back on the road for six games following this series so they will really go after the last two games of this three-game set. The Astros won Game 1 handily, but they are yet to prove they can be trusted on the road. They are just 68-168 in their last 236 road games. They are even 30-77 in their last 107 road games versus a team with a losing record and 27-77 in their last 104 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Astros are also 30-74 in their last 104 in the second game of a series. Houston is 0-4 in scheduled starter McHugh's last four starts, during which he's compiled a 5.16 ERA. The Royals are 21-7 in Guthrie's last 28 home starts, 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a home favorite, 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. His clubs are 4-1 all-time in his starts against Houston. Take Kansas City. |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +6.5 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a chance to even the series, Indiana will be out for blood this evening. I especially expect the Pacers to pick things up on the defensive end after allowing Miami to shoot better than 50% in each of the first three games. Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. It is a perfect 6-0 in its last 6 games following a double-digit loss, winning them by an average of 6.2 points. Take the points. |
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05-26-14 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -132 | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Nationals -132 The Key: I'm fading the Marlins on the road where they are 32-81 in their last 113. It's also worth noting that they've lost four consecutive series openers and are 0-4 in Eovaldi's road starts this season. He has a 4.99 ERA in these starts, a 5.28 ERA over his last three starts and a 6.00 ERA in three starts versus Washington. The Nationals' Roark has a 1.01 home ERA on the season and a 2.19 ERA versus Miami. Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 home games versus the Marlins, including 3-0 this season. Take the Nats. |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 82 h 44 m | Show |
7* Western Conference Finals Game of the Year on Thunder -2 The Key: I'm not ready to count the Thunder out yet. You might recall that they lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight, including a 20-point victory in Game 3, to win the series. Dating back to that Game 3 win, the Thunder are on a 7-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs. All of these victories came by at least six points with four by 12 or more. Oklahoma City was a tremendous 34-7 at home during the regular season and 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Spurs are still 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Thunder. |
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05-25-14 | Oakland A's -128 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Annihilator on A's -128 The Key: Despite losses in three straight, the A's are still 11-4 in their last 15 games. Look for them to bounce back strong here. The Athletics are 27-13 in their last 40 road games, 42-20 in their last 62 games as a road favorite and 17-5 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Toronto's J.A. Happ has a 5.40 ERA at home and a 6.08 ERA over his last three starts. An Oakland club that is 12-5 against southpaw starters this season while averaging 5.0 runs per game should give him problems. The Blue Jays are 2-8 in Happ's last 10 home starts, 1-7 in his last eight starts as a home underdog, 1-6 in his last seven starts in the third game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus the AL West. Drew Pomeranz has been perfect. The A's are 3-0 in his three starts, during which he has 0.00 ERA. Oakland also has a significant edge in the bullpen. Take the A's. |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7 | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 58 h 45 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Heat -7 The Key: I like Miami at home where it is 37-9 on the season, including 5-0 in the playoffs. These five wins have come by an average of 10.0 points. Home court has been huge in this matchup. The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with an average winning margin of 9.6 points. While the Pacers are elite defensively, their offensive issues often surface in Miami where they are 0-4 in their last four. They have lost these games by 11.8 points on average while being held to an average of 83.8 points. The Pacers have been good on the road in these playoffs, but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Lay the points. |
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05-24-14 | Washington Nationals -108 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -108 The Key: Washington has the edge on the mound with Strasburg, who is starting to find his groove. The right-hander has a 2.30 ERA this month and has held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts. Pittsburgh's Cole has a 4.74 ERA on the month, which is a big issue when you consider that Washington is 20-1 this season when scoring at least four runs. Strasburg has been nothing short of dominant in four career starts versus the Pirates. The Nationals have won three of them while he's compiled a 2.57 ERA and struck out 47 while walking four. Pedro Alvarez, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen are a combined 3 for 24 against him. The Nationals are 47-18 in their last 65 games as a road favorite, 6-1 in Strasburg's last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game and 18-5 in his last 23 starts in the third game of a series. Take Washington. |
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05-23-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Miami Marlins -108 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Marlins -108 The Key: The Marlins are showing tremendous value at this price at home where they are 23-6 in their last 29. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six as injuries to key players are taking a toll. There's no doubt Miami has the edge on the mound with Koehler, who has a 2.25 ERA on the season and a 1.93 ERA over his last three starts. The Marlins are 5-0 in his last five at home where he has a 0.64 ERA this season. It is also to Koehler's advantage that he hasn't faced the Brewers because they won't be at all familiar with his stuff. The Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter, and I like their chances of getting to Estrada, who has a 4.76 ERA over his last three starts and a 7.43 ERA in three career starts against Miami. Take the Marlins. |
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05-22-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies -114 | Top | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -114 The Key: The Rockies are showing some nice value at home at this price with De La Rosa on the mound. The Rockies are 5-0 in his last five starts, 40-11 in his last 51 home starts and 45-11 in his last 56 starts as a favorite. They are 17-4 in De La Rosa's last 21 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last four starts versus teams with a winning record. Colorado is also 4-0 in his last four home starts versus the Giants. Hudson is having a good season, but he missed his last start and will likely show some rust as a result. It's not good to be rusty at Coors Field where the Rockies have been hammering the baseball all season. Plus, Hudson's clubs are just 1-4 in his last five starts at Coors. The Giants are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Colorado. Take the Rockies. |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 211 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Spurs Under 211 The Key: The Thunder thought they could go small and outscore the Spurs in Game 1, but that decision left them exposed on the defensive end. Protecting the paint will be a priority for Oklahoma City tonight, and that means we can expect to see a bigger lineup, likely one that has Steven Adams and Nick Collison playing side by side for extended minutes. Playing this duo worked against the Clippers, and I expect Scott Brooks to go back to it here. Collison and Adams are blue collar competitors, who I believe will respond after getting punked in Game 1. The pace actually favored the under in Game 1, but both teams shot the ball well. With more effort and a strategy change from the Thunder, the Spurs shouldn't shoot anywhere near the 57.5% they shot in the first game. Despite the 227 total points we saw in Game 1, these two teams have combined to average just 207.6 total points in this season's five meetings. The Thunder are 4-1 "under" in their last five games after giving up 100 points or more last game, 4-1 "under" in their last five when playing on one day of rest and 5-2 "under" in their last seven following a defeat of more than 10 points. The Spurs are 14-6 "under" in their 20 when their opponent scored 100 points or more last game. Take the Under. |
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05-21-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -123 | 6-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -123 The Key: I missed with the Red Sox yesterday, but I'm not hesitating to come right back with them here. They are 38-18 in their last 56 games following a loss and 9-2 in their last 11 in the second game of a series. The Blue Jays are just 2-6 in their last eight in the second game of a series. Buchholz is yet to re-discover the form that allowed him to go 12-1 last season, but I like his chances of throwing a gem here. He has an ERA of 2.52 in 18 starts versus Toronto. The Red Sox are 5-0 in Buchholz's last five home starts versus a team with a winning record, 9-1 in his last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 11-2 in his last 13 starts on five days' rest. The Red Sox are 11-5 in his last 16 starts versus the Blue Jays. Take Boston. |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
7* Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers Under 185 The Key: Prior to Game 1, six of the previous seven meetings had finished below the posted number for this game. The Game 1 pace wasn't fast, but both teams shot better than 51% from the field. I expect that to change tonight. Miami knows it has to tighten the screws defensively if it is going to even the series. Indiana was arguably the best defensive team in the NBA this season, and it has held Miami to an average of 43.7% shooting over the last seven matchups. The Pacers are 33-13 "under" this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points, and we've seen an average of only 180.9 total points scored in these games. According to simulations based on statistics, there is a probability of both teams scoring 92 points or less in this game. This is worth noting because the "under" is 59-0 the last three seasons in Indiana games when both teams score 92 points or less. The "under" is 32-0 in Miami games the last three seasons when both teams score 92 points or less. Take the under. |
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05-20-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -141 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -141 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -141 The Key: After getting swept at home by the Tigers, Boston will be all business when it takes the field this evening. The Red Sox have struggled at the plate lately. However, first half of the season home favorites of -110 or higher that have a batting average of .175 or worse over their last three games are 74-31 the last five seasons. I expect Boston's bats to come alive against Toronto lefty J.A. Happ. Bean Town is 10-4 against lefty starters this season, batting .263 and averaging 5.3 runs against them. The Blue Jays are 6-13 in Happ's last 19 starts and 0-4 in his last four starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Despite Boston's recent skid, it is still 38-17 in its last 55 games following a loss. Felix Doubront has been dialed in lately. He has a 2.55 ERA over his last three starts. The Red Sox are 9-4 in his last 13 starts and 12-4 in his last 16 starts as a favorite. Take the Red Sox. |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -5.5 The Key: San Antonio is playing its best basketball of the season, especially at home where it is 5-0 in its last five with an average winning margin of 18.4 points. Oklahoma City swept the regular-season series, but the playoffs are a different animal. We saw that when Miami took care of Brooklyn in five games after getting swept in the regular season. Plus, the Spurs catch a break with Serge Ibaka out. He is the team's third-leading scorer and best defensive player. Ibaka led the league in blocked shots. The Thunder won't get the same level of rim protection without him. San Antonio is 68-46 ATS in home playoffs games under coach Popovich, winning them by an average of 7.6 points. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent in a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%. Doing so has produced a 119-72 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.7 points on average and have won by an average of 8.0 points. The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the points. |
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05-19-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -109 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Indians -109 The Key: Detroit has been rolling, but I expect a letdown following a huge series sweep on the road against the reigning champs. The Indians are an impressive 41-18 in their last 59 games as a favorite, and they should be just fine with Kluber on the hill. They are 10-3 in Kluber's last 13 home starts, 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last seven series-opening starts. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 2-5 in Smyly's last seven starts and 0-5 in his last five starts versus a club with a losing record. The Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 home games versus a left-handed starter. Take Cleveland. |
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05-18-14 | Miami Marlins v. San Francisco Giants -141 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -141 The Key: Following back-to-back losses, the Giants will bounce back to earn a series split. The Giants are 24-8 in their last 32 games following a loss, 6-0 in their last six Game 4s of a series and 11-1 in their last 12 Sunday games. The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six Game 4s of a series, 3-13 in Turner's last 16 starts and 0-6 in his last six starts versus a team with a winning record. Turner doesn't help himself very often. He has just 10 strikeouts on the season. This is significant because the Giants are 15-1 the last three seasons versus teams starting a pitcher who strikes out an average of three batters per start or less. The Giants have won these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.8. Vogelsong has been pitching well, allowing one run or none in three of his last four starts. Turner, on the other hand, has given up five runs or more in four of his last five starts. Take the Giants. |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers +3.5 The Key: The Pacers are showing value catching this many points at home where they are 38-10 on the season. The Pacers have been playing for this series all year, and I expect an inspired effort from them this afternoon. Indiana won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in three of four meetings during the regular season. Indiana has also won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in nine of the last 14 meetings. Home court has been huge in this matchup. The home team is 8-0 in the last eight meetings with a 9.6-point average margin of victory. The Pacers are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus the Heat, including 4-0 in their last four. Indiana's size gives Miami big problems. Take the points. |
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05-17-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -125 | 6-1 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
6* AL *CA$H COW* on Red Sox -125 The Key: Detroit's Porcello hasn't been as good on the road where he has a 4.44 ERA. Plus, the Tigers are 1-4 in his starts versus Boston, during which he's compiled an ERA of 10.42. Lackey has a 2.88 ERA at home, and the Red Sox are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts, 9-2 in his last 11 starts versus winning clubs and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite. He's 7-3 with an ERA of 3.57 in 13 career starts versus Detroit. Boston is 11-2 the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a shutout loss. It has won by an average score of 6.2 to 3.6 in this spot. Lastly, the Tigers are 16-37 in the last 53 meetings in Boston. |
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05-17-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies -117 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
7* NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -117 The Key: Hamels has owned the Reds. The Phillies are 11-0 all-time in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 1.51 ERA. The Reds took Game 1, but they are 0-4 in their last four following a win, 1-5 in their last six in the second game of a series, 1-5 in their last six as an underdog and 1-5 in their last six road games. They are also 0-4 in Bailey's last four starts as an underdog and 1-10 in his last 11 road starts when the money line is +125 to -125. The Reds are 1-5 in Bailey's 6 career road starts versus the Phillies. Cincinnati is 17-35 in the last 52 meetings, including 7-20 in the last 27 in Philadelphia. Take Philly. |
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05-16-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels -137 | 3-0 | Loss | -137 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Angels -137 The Key: I expect Mike Trout's game-winning blast to have a negative carry-over effect for Tampa Bay. The Rays haven't been able to bounce back from tough losses, going 1-7 this season after a loss of two runs or less. It doesn't hurt LAs chances that ace Jered Weaver is getting the ball. The Angels are 3-0 in his last three starts, during which he's posted a 1.83 ERA. You don't want to go against him at home when he's rolling. Consider that LA is 15-2 all-time in home starts that occur after he's given up 1 earned run or none in his last two outings. The Angels are 39-13 in his last 52 home starts overall and 26-6 in his last 32 home starts versus teams that have a losing record. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer is struggling. He has a 6.35 ERA on the road and a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts. LA also holds advantages at the plate. It averages 4.9 runs per game at home while the Rays are scoring just 3.3 runs on the road. Take the Angels. |
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05-16-14 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -148 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
7* NL West Game of the Year on Rockies -148 The Key: This is a tough spot for San Diego, which played a double header in Cincinnati yesterday. Fatigue will be an issue for the Padres. So will Jorge De La Rosa. Colorado's recent road trip didn't go well, but it had yesterday off to regroup and is sending the right horse to the hill. The Rockies are an incredible 40-12 in De La Rosa's last 52 home starts. And when he gets the ball following a team loss, they are on a perfect 16-0 run. When he gets the ball off two consecutive team losses or more, they are on an 8-0 tear. Clearly, this competitor is clutch. He's dialed in right now too. The southpaw is 4-0 in his last four starts with a 2.63 ERA. They are a perfect 8-0 in his last eight home starts dating back to last season. The Rockies are 11-1 in De La Rosa's last 12 starts versus the Padres, including 7-0 in his home starts during this span. While Eric Stults has an unbeaten record versus the Rockies, he's fortunate that's the case since he's allowed 9 runs in his last 9 2-3 innings against them. Stults is in poor form with a 6.62 road ERA on the season and a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. He hasn't had nearly the same success on the road where the Padres are 5-13 in his last 18 starts and 2-8 in his last 10 starts versus winning clubs. The Rockies also have a huge advantage offensively. They are batting .353 at home and averaging 7.7 runs per game. San Diego is batting .196 on the road and averaging 2.4 runs per game. The Padres are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado. Take the Rockies. |
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05-15-14 | Miami Marlins v. San Francisco Giants -133 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -133 The Key: I'll back the Giants, who are 10-3 in their last 13 at home, versus a Miami club that is 4-15 on the road. Going back further, the Marlins are 30-79 in their last 109 road games. The Giants have won 15 of their last 20 overall and are 14-3 in their last 17 home games versus a right-handed starter. The Marlins are 0-3 in Eovaldi's road starts, and he's 1-2 with an ERA of 12.21 in three starts versus San Francisco. Even though Cain is still looking for his first win of the season, he is the better starter in this matchup, and I believe he's due. He's held the opposition to two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and 13 of his last 17. When the money line is +100 to -150, you want to back home teams that are starting a pitcher who is winless after five starts or more if they have a hot bullpen with an ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games. Doing so has produced a 70-26 mark since 1997. Take San Francisco. |
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05-15-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers +4.5 The Key: As if Tuesday's embarrassing 102-79 home loss isn't enough motivation, the Pacers watched Miami punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals last night. Indiana knows it needs to end this series tonight so Miami won't have a significant rest advantage, and I fully expect the Pacers to respond. The Pacers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Indiana is 13-3 ATS in road games the last two seasons when seeking revenge for an upset loss. Washington is 6-17 ATS the last three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points. Take the points. |
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05-14-14 | New York Yankees -154 v. New York Mets | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
6* ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Yankees -154 The Key: The Mets took the first two games of the series at Yankee Stadium, and now the series shifts to Citi Field, but I don't expect the Mets to keep rolling. The Yankees are an impressive 43-19 in their last 62 games after losing the first two games of a series, and the Mets are an atrocious 19-53 in their last 72 games as a home underdog. No club has been able to figure out Tanaka, and I believe this trend continues. The Yanks are 5-0 in his last five starts and 3-0 this season in his road starts. He's struck out 58 batters and walked only seven. On the road he has 22 Ks and just one free pass. The Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Mets are 0-5 in their last five interleague home games. The Mets' Montero is a promising prospect, but he's not Tanaka. I expect him to have trouble getting out a Yankees club that is batting .265 on the road in his big league debut. The Mets are batting just .208 at home. Take the Yankees. |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
7* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat Under 189 The Key: The last two games of this series have finished over the total, largely due to hot shooting by Brooklyn in Game 3 and hot shooting by Miami in Game 4. I don't expect either team to shoot well tonight. With the Nets fighting to stay alive and the Heat trying to close them out, defense will take center stage. The Heat are on a 4-0 "under" run in games following two consecutive overs. The Nets are also 4-0 "under" in their last four games following two consecutive overs. Brooklyn is 20-5 "under" as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points over the last three seasons. Miami has been taking exceptional care of the basketball in these playoffs and is on a 13-3 "under" run since 1996 in home games after three straight games of committing 11 turnovers or fewer. The "under" is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams in Miami, including 6-1 in the last seven. We have seen just 182.0 total points scored on average in these 10 games. Take the Under. |
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05-13-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Kansas City Royals -144 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB Interleague *CA$H COW* on Royals -144 The Key: The Rockies are off to good start in interleague play this season, but I'm not ready to trust it. Five of their seven interleague games have come at home, and they haven't been the same team on the road. Colorado is 12-30 in interleague play since 2012, including 1-14 during this span versus teams averaging less than 4.2 runs per game. It has lost by an average of 3.4 runs in these 15 contests. Going back further, the Rockies are 37-76 in their last 113 interleague road games and 36-76 in their last 112 games as a road underdog. The Royals bring a lot of momentum home after finishing their road trip 4-2. They are 6-0 in their last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 30-11 in their last 41 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City has the edge on the mound with Shields, who has a 2.70 ERA through eight starts. Colorado's Morales has a 5.31 ERA through seven starts. The Royals are 18-5 in Shields' last 23 starts as a favorite. Take Kansas City. |
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05-13-14 | WASHINGTON GM5 v. INDIANA GM5 UNDER 181 | Top | 102-79 | Push | 0 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers Under 181 The Key: The Pacers know they are fortunate to be up 3-1 in the series as they needed to come back from 19 down in the second half Sunday night. They can't be at all pleased with their performance on the defensive end (especially in the first half) as they gave up 18 fast-break points, 42 points in the paint and allowed the Wizards to shoot 45.6% for the game. I expect them to tighten the screws defensively from the jump tonight as they look to close out the series. Washington knows it must do a better job defensive if it's going to live to see another day. After holding Indiana to 42.3% shooting through the first three games of the series, it allowed the Pacers to shoot 45.2% from the floor in Game 4. The Pacers are 31-12 "under" this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 17-6 "under" at home in this range. Indiana is also 9-1 "under" the last two seasons after three straight games where both it and its opponent scored 95 points or fewer. We have seen just 173.3 total points on average scored in these 10 instances. You also want to play the "under" on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 in a matchup of teams with winning records if they are off two or more consecutive upset defeats. Doing so has produced a 40-16 mark since 1996. Take the Under. |
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05-12-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 UNDER 211 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
7* 2nd Round Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Trail Blazers Under 211 The Key: You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all teams like Portland that have allowed 110 points or more in three straight games when they are matched up against a team that scored 105 points or more last game. Doing so has produced a 32-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to play the "Under" when the total is 200.0 or higher on home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for two straight double-digit losses to an opponent when the opponent is off a road win where it scored 110 points or more. Doing so has produced a 32-9 ATS mark since 1996, a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS record the last three seasons. Game 3 closed with Portland favored by a single point, and that sets up another strong system. You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more if their opponent is off a double-digit upset win. Doing so has produced a 30-7 ATS mark since 1996. We saw 208 total points scored in Game 1 and 211 total points scored in Game 2 so we are getting a good line, especially since I expect this to be the most intense game of the series on the defensive end. With Portland fighting to stay alive and San Antonio looking to close out the series, defense should take center stage. Take the Under. |
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05-12-14 | Miami Marlins v. Los Angeles Dodgers -144 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Dodgers -144 The Key: The Dodgers have been a disappointment thus far at home where they are 7-12, but they are still showing value at this price against a Miami club that is 3-13 away from home this season. The Marlins are 15-40 in their last 55 road games, 29-73 in their last 102 games as a road underdog and 19-53 in their last 72 road games versus a right-handed starter. The Fish are even on a 0-4 slide in road games versus teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Koehler is having a strong season, but the Marlins are 0-3 in his road starts. He has a 4.15 ERA in those games. They are 1-7 in his last eight road starts versus a team with a winning record. Haren has been at his best at home where he has a 1.86 ERA. His clubs are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. The Dodgers are batting only .248 at home, but they are hitting right-handed starters at a .266 clip. The Marlins are batting a dismal .212 on the road and just .247 versus righty starters. Take LA. |
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05-11-14 | INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 OVER 180 | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards Over 180 The Key: Washington has allowed Indiana to control the tempo the last two games. It lost both as a result, and both finished way under the total. The Wizards have managed just nine fast-break points the past two games, and they know that is unacceptable. I expect them to make an effort to get out and run in Game 4, like they did in Game 1 when they had 14 fast-break points and 198 total points were scored in the game. The Wizards did an excellent job of controlling the tempo versus the Bulls. They played fast and four of the five games finished above the number with an average of 184.6 total points scored in these five games. If you get rid of the low-scoring Game 5, there was an average of 194.8 total points scored between the teams. The "Over" is 5-0-1 in the Wizard's last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the Over. |
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05-11-14 | INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 -4.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -4.5 The Key: Washington controlled the tempo in Game 1 and cruised to a six-point win on the road. However, the Wizards have let the Pacers take the air out of the ball the past two games, and they lost both, including an ugly 85-63 defeat in Game 3. That loss is all the motivation the Wizards will need here. Look for them to bounce-back strong behind an up-tempo attack. The Pacers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall, 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Lay the points. |
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05-11-14 | Washington Nationals +121 v. Oakland A's | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Nationals +121 The Key: This is an excellent price to get behind Gio Gonzalez, who is the better starter in this matchup without a doubt regardless of what this season's numbers say. It's starting to show too as Scott Kazmir is coming back down to earth with an ERA of 4.24 over his last three starts. Gonzo has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts. The Nats are an impressive 27-12 in Gonzo's road starts since the beginning of last season. Washington has lost the first two games of the series, but it is still 9-3 in its last 12 games following a loss, 7-3 in its last 10 Game 3s of a series and 6-1 in its last 7 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter. The Nationals are batting a phenomenal .289 versus lefty starters this season. Take Washington. |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -4.5 | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4.5 The Key: The Clippers won't go down without a fight. Expect them to come storming back in Game 4 behind a much better defensive effort. Oklahoma City has connected on better than 50% of its shots the past two games, and you can bet the Clippers will tighten the screws here. Prior to these contests, LA had held the Thunder to 46.2% or worse in three straight contests. The Clippers are 37-9 at home where they hold a +10.6-point differential. They are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss. The Thunder are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Lay the points. |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | Top | 118-103 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 30 m | Show |
7* Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Trail Blazers +1.5 The Key: Expect Portland to come storming back at home where it is 33-11 on the season and 9-2 in its last 11 versus San Antonio. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 3-10 in their last 13 in Portland. You want to back underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they trailed by 15 points or more at the half of their previous game. Doing so has produced a 66-31 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back home underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 56-28 ATS mark since 1996. With the home crowd behind them, the Trail Blazers will get the job done Saturday night. |
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05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +1.5 | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets +1.5 The Key: The Nets blew a good chance to even the series in Game 2 by falling in love with the three-point shot in the second half, but this veteran squad isn't about to hang its head. The Nets have been awesome in their own building where they are 25-5 since Dec. 27. They are also 2-0 at home versus Miami this season. The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. You also want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off two or more consecutive road losses, provided that have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 65-32 ATS mark since 1996. Bet the Nets. |
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05-10-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -145 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Dodgers -145 The Key: The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Greinke, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 22 consecutive starts. His clubs are 40-14 all-time in his starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The Dodgers are 15-3 in his last 18 home starts, 14-2 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game, 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the third game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. San Francisco's Cain has a 5.25 ERA on the road this season. The Giants are 1-9 in his last 10 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 division starts. The Giants are 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts versus the Dodgers and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Dodgers. Greinke's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts versus the Giants. Take LA. |
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05-09-14 | Washington Nationals v. Oakland A's -114 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout Blowout on A's -114 The Key: The Athletics are 92-44 in their last 136 interleague home games and 70-34 in their last 104 games as a home favorite. They are 17-3 since 1997 in home games versus NL clubs that allow 3.8 runs per game of less. The Nationals are 18-37 in their last 55 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 4-21 in their last 25 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Fister is making his first start of the season, and I expect him to show some rust. His clubs are 5-14 in his last 19 road starts when the line is +125 to -125. The A's saw him twice last season and hit him hard, touching him for 10 runs in 11 innings. Milone is off to a rough start for Oakland, but only one of his starts have come at home. Only three Nationals have seen him, so their lack of familiarity with his stuff plays greatly in our favor. The Athletics are 6-1 in Milone's last seven interleague starts. You want to back teams when the money line is +100 to -150 that are starting a pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts as long as the bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 over the last 10 games. Doing so has produced a 69-26 mark since 1997. Take the A's. |
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05-08-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -125 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Mariners -125 The Key: The Mariners have won 8 of 10 while the Royals have dropped 5 of 7. The Mariners are also 6-1 in their last seven home games versus the Royals. The Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. I'm a big believer in Iwakuma. The Mariners are 3-0 in his last three starts and 17-7 in his last 24 home starts. He figures to get plenty of run support tonight as the M's have won 9 of 13 against left-handed starters this season while batting .250 and averaging 4.6 runs. The Royals have been doing some winning with Duffy on the mound, but he puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has an ERA above 4.00 because he often doesn't go very deep in games. The Royals are 5-13 in his last 18 starts versus teams with a winning record. Take Seattle. |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +7 The Key: You want to back road teams like Portland that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced an 80-34 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1996. If the underdog in the aforementioned situation is also playing on the road, this system explodes to 31-9 ATS. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 13-2 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 99.1 to 98.8 in this spot. History shows that teams who get off to a bad start in their previous game tend to bounce back strong. Take the points. |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Nets +8 The Key: The Nets were crushed in Game 1, but they have been exceptional in bounce-back spots this season. In fact, they are 13-3 ATS on the season following a loss of 15 points or more and have won by an average score of 99.4 to 95.4 in this spot. Brooklyn is also 10-2 ATS this season following a road defeat of 10 points or more and has won by an average score of 102.7 to 96.6 in this spot. It is also worth noting that the Nets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus teams that have a home winning percentage greater than .600 while the Heat are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Brooklyn won all four regular-season meetings, and I expect it to show up in Game 2. Take the points. |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5.5 The Key: Look for the Thunder to bounce back strong in Game 2. The Clippers are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points while the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. Oklahoma City is also 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. It has won these contests by an average score of 108.6 to 97.7. In addition, the Thunder are 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won these contests by an average score of 106.0 to 94.8. Lastly, OKC is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams like the Clippers that outscore the opposition by 6.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 108.1 to 101.0. Lay the points. |
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05-07-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Texas Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB Interleague Total of the Month on Rockies/Rangers Under 9.5 The Key: Plays "under" on all teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 in Wednesday interleague games has produced a 98-46 mark the last five seasons. Texas' Colby Lewis is 15-1 "under" all-time in Wednesday starts, and we have seen only 6.7 total runs scored on average in these outings. Lewis has been really good lately with a 3.37 ERA over his last three starts. Jorge De La Rosa has returned to form following a slow start and has an ERA of 2.50 over his last three starts. With as good as these pitchers are going, I feel this line is too high. The "under" is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five road starts when the total is 9.0-10.5. De La Rosa is also 17-3 "under" all-time in road games following two or more consecutive wins. We have seen just 6.0 total runs scored on average in these outings. The Rockies haven't had the same scoring punch on the road where they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game. The Rangers are averaging only 4.1 runs per game at home. Take the Under. |
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05-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4.5 The Key: The Pacers lost Game 1, but they are still 37-9 this season at home where they are averaging 98.2 points and holding opponents to an average of 88.8. They are also still 12-1 in their 13 home games versus the Wizards, and the 12 wins have come by an average of 12.9 points. The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss against the spread. Washington has been playing well on the road in these playoffs, but it is on an 11-26 ATS slide following two or more consecutive road wins. Lay the points. |
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05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
6* Game 1 Bailout on Trail Blazers +6.5 The Key: The Spurs are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, and they'll have a difficult time covering this number against a Portland squad that has given them fits. The Trail Blazers have won or lost by three points or less in six of the last seven meetings. San Antonio has won by more than six points only once in its last nine games. The Blazers have lost by more than six points only once in their last 11 games. The Spurs won the most recent meeting 103-90 in San Antonio, but the Blazers are 7-0 ATS this season in road games when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 115.3 to 105.1 in this situation. Take the points. |
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05-06-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays -143 | 5-3 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rays -143 The Key: Baltimore's Chris Tillman is extremely fortunate to be 3-0 on the road considering the 5.21 ERA he's compiled away from home. He's currently in poor form with an ERA of 7.63 over his last three starts. He's struggled against the Rays, going 1-4 in his last five starts against them. He has a 4.90 ERA in 11 career starts against them. Tampa Bay's Archer is a different pitcher at home where he has a 2.13 ERA on the season. The Rays are 7-0 in his last seven home starts, 6-0 in his last six home starts versus teams with a winning record, 5-0 in his last five starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in his last five starts overall versus teams with a winning record. Archer was hit hard in a loss in Baltimore last month and will be very focused here as a result. The Rays are 2-0 in his two home starts versus the Orioles. The Orioles are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings, including 0-4 in the last four in Tampa Bay. Take Tampa Bay. |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
6* Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Heat -7 The Key: The Heat will be the much fresher team tonight as they haven't taken the floor since Apr. 28. The Nets are coming off a tough seven-game series and will be playing their second road game in three days here. Brooklyn actually swept Miami during the regular season so the Heat will be looking to send a message from the tip. You want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge when their opponent checks in off an upset victory over a division rival. Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting this situation have won by 11.5 points on average. Lay the points. |
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05-05-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Royals/Padres Under 6.5 The Key: San Diego has been a terrific "Under" investment. It is on a 41-15-4 "Under" run in its last 60 games. The Padres are 15-4 "Under" this season when the total is 7.0 or less. Both teams are really struggling at the plate, and that sets up an extraordinary "Under" system. You want to play the "Under" on any team (KC) that has had 7 hits or less in 4 consecutive games when they are matched up against a team that has had less than 10 hits in 5 straight games. Doing so has produced a 40-13 mark the last 5 seasons. The Padres are 20-5-1 "Under" in their last 26 games versus starters with a WHIP of less than 1.150. They'll have a tough time getting to Ventura, who has a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.067. His ERA is just 0.60 on the road, and the Royals have finished "Under" the total in 4 of his 5 starts this season. Stults has been good at home where he has a 3.27 ERA, and the Padres are 5-1 "Under" in his 6 interleague starts. Take the Under. |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 102-96 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4 The Key: The Pacers got a huge wake-up call in their first-round series with Atlanta. It was an up-hill battle after losing Game 1 of that series, and they'll be extremely focused tonight to make sure they get off to a better start in the semifinal round. Indiana actually matches up better with Washington because the Wizards rely more on the interior play of Marcin Gortat and Nene. Going inside plays right into the hands of an Indiana squad that is big and physical defensively in the paint. If Washington tries to go small and be more perimeter-oriented, the Pacers got a great crash course on how to defend that in the first round. ''I think Teague helped us prepare for John Wall,'' coach Frank Vogel said. "And Korver helped us prepare for Bradley Beal." The Pacers are 12-0 in their last 12 home games versus the Wizards with these victories coming by an average of 12.9 points. Lay the points. |
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05-04-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Brewers/Reds Under 7.5 The Key: Expect a low-scoring game in Cincinnati with a couple hot starters gripping the pill. Lohse is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA that is down to 2.33 over his last three starts. Simon is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA. Simon is 7-0 "Under" in his last seven starts, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in any of these games. Lohse has a 2.89 ERA in 15 starts versus Cincinnati, and he has held the Reds to one earned run or none in eight of his last 11 starts against them. The "Under" is 7-0 in his last seven starts versus the Reds, and we haven't seen more than seven total runs scored in these games. Take the Under. |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 198.5 | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs Under 198.5 The Key: With the stakes raised and a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line, I expect to see these teams play a little tight. Every single possession means a little bit more in a Game 7, and the pace should slow as a result. Neither team wants to do the other any favors by taking a bad shot early in the shot clock or turning the ball over. Plus, we should see outstanding effort on the defensive end from both teams. When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more if they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average of only 188.5 total points scored in this situation. Take the Under. |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 UNDER 186 | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder Under 186 The Key: Four of the six games played in this series have finished at or under 186 total points in regulation, and I expect this trend to continue. We have seen an average of 180.3 total points scored in regulation in this series and only 174.5 in regulation over the last four games so we are getting an excellent number. We only saw 188 total points scored in Game 6 despite OKC hitting 49.3% from the field and going 23 of 25 from the free throw line. Prior to that game, Memphis had held the Thunder below 40% shooting in four straight games. I expect another strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies here. The Thunder are at their best when they are getting out in transition, but Memphis has done an excellent job of controlling the tempo. Even in Game 6, the Thunder only attempted 75 shots - eight less than their season average. When the total is between 180.0-189.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on all teams like the Thunder who are off a win of 20 points or more, provided they average 99.0 ppg or more. Doing so has produced a 109-63 mark since 1996. We have seen just 182.4 total points scored on average in this situation. It is also worth noting that Memphis is 11-2 "Under" the last three seasons following a double-digit loss at home. We have seen only 179.3 total points scored in this spot. Take the Under. |
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05-03-14 | Baltimore Orioles -115 v. Minnesota Twins | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Orioles -115 The Key: Minnesota can't be trusted with Correia on the mound. He has a 7.33 ERA on the season that dips to 9.60 at home. The Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 starts, 1-8 in his last nine home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus winning clubs, 0-5 in his last five home starts versus winning clubs, 0-6 in his last six starts in the second game of a series and 0-4 in his last four starts versus AL East foes. Correia also has a 6.00 ERA in two career starts versus Baltimore. Chen has settled in following a pair of sub-par outings to start the season. He has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts, and the Orioles are 4-0 in his last four starts. They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the second game of a series and 2-0 in his starts against the Twins. He has a 2.25 ERA in both career starts versus the Twins and both were in Minnesota. It is also worth noting that the Orioles are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150. You want to fade AL home teams that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.600 to 1.700 and an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. Doing so has produced a 36-15 mark the last five seasons. Take Baltimore. |
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05-02-14 | New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -125 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Rockies -125 The Key: The Rockies have the edge on the mound with De La Rosa. They are 39-12 in his last 51 home starts and 43-11 in his last 54 starts as a favorite. Colorado is 8-0 the last two seasons in his home starts versus clubs with winning records, winning these games by an average of 3.4 runs. It is also 7-0 the last two seasons in his home starts when the money line is +125 to -125, winning these contests by an average of 3.3 runs. De La Rosa is nearly unbeatable at home as he's learned how to pitch at flighty Coors. Plus, the Mets have really struggled against southpaw starters and are just 5-15 against them dating back to last season. Wheeler has been good for New York overall, but he has a 4.77 ERA on the road and has never pitched inside hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler's last five starts versus teams with a winning record and 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog. The Rockies are batting .346 and averaging 7.4 runs per game at home. The Mets are hitting a decent .255 on the road and averaging 5.2 runs per game, but they are batting only .208 over their last 12 games and are batting just .216 against lefty starters. Take Colorado. |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -4.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -4.5 The Key: The Nets have lost the last two games of this series and are now facing elimination, but I expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion tonight to extend the series. The Nets were fortunate to be in Game 5 as they got off to a terrible start and trailed by 18 at the half. They have learned from similar performances as they are 8-1 ATS this season after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. They have won these contests by an average of 9.8 points. The Nets are also 9-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these contests by an average of 8.0 points. The Raptors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Take Brooklyn. |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5 The Key: Golden State has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots. The Warriors are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. They are also 8-1 ATS this season following a double-digit defeat and have won these contests by an average score of 106.4 to 90.5. In addition, the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 60% to 70%. They have won these games by an average score of 104.0 to 93.2. The Warriors have won 16 of their last 19 home games against the Clippers. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Golden State. Take the Warriors. |
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05-01-14 | Atlanta Braves -125 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
7* NL Game of the Week on Braves -125 The Key: Atlanta has dropped the first two games of the series, but it hasn't been swept at Miami since 2006. The Marlins are 18-45 in their last 63 Game 3s of a series. The Braves are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings, including 22-8 in their last 30 in Miami. Ervin Santana has been brilliant since moving to the NL. The Braves are 4-0 in his starts, and he's compiled an ERA of only 1.95. This number is down to 1.38 in a pair of road starts. His clubs are 11-1 the last two season in his starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. Henderson Alvarez has pitched well for the Marlins, but they've lost four of his five starts while he's posted an ERA (2.73) that's nearly a run higher than Santana's. His clubs are 1-11 over the last three seasons in his home starts versus division opponents. The Marlins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus the NL East and 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus winning clubs. Take Atlanta. |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -5 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -5 The Key: Staring elimination in the face, Houston will play with a sense of desperation to extend the series. Prior to these playoffs, the Rockets had won three straight at home over the Trail Blazers by an average of 11.0 points. I expect them to dig down deep here, and it starts with James Harden, who has had a rough series. If Harden had been himself, the Rockets might be up 3-1. I expect him to be the best player on the floor tonight. The Trail Blazers are a poor 2-7 ATS when playing on two days' rest. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that give up 99.0 ppg or more when they are matched up against a team that has allowed 100 points or more in four straight games. Doing so has produced an 85-50 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting into this system have lost by an average of 8.4 points. Lay the number. |
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04-30-14 | Washington Nationals v. Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB "Total" Annihilator on Astros/Nationals Under 8.5 The Key: Zimmermann has been really good in four of five starts this season and has a 2.70 ERA over his last three. He's given up only one run on seven hits in his last two starts versus Houston spanning 13 innings while striking out 14 and walking none. Oberholtzer will be focused following a rare bad outing. Prior to his last start, he had posted an ERA of 2.87 over his previous eight starts. He has received an average of only 1.78 runs of support over his last nine starts. I expect Oberholtzer to have success against a Washington club that has never faced him. The "Under" is 3-0-1 in the Nationals' last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games following a win, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0-1 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a losing record. The "Under" is 4-0 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest and 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The "Under" is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these clubs. Take the Under. |
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04-29-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM5 v. LA CLIPPERS GM5 -5.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5 The Key: Look for the Clippers to put the distractions aside and bounce-back strong tonight. You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent if that opponent is off a win of 20 points or more over a division rival. Doing so has produced a 43-15 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting this system have been favored by 5.3 points on average but have won by an average of 9.0 points. The Clippers are 14-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, and they have won by an average score of 112.9 to 99.9 in this situation. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five road meetings. Lay the points. |
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04-29-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals -137 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Royals -137 The Key: The Royals will be happy to take the field at home, where they are 6-3, following a seven-game road trip. They are 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. They Royals are also 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Vargas has been terrific (1.54 ERA through 5 starts), especially at home where he's 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA. Toronto's McGowan has a 6.88 ERA through four starts. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in McGowan's last six starts, 9-23 in his last 32 road starts and 5-14 in his last 19 starts as an underdog. The Jays are 12-30 all-time in his night starts. You want to fade road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 to 4.50 if they are batting .265 or worse as a team and are facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower. Doing so has produced a 125-39 mark the last five seasons. Take Kansas City. |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Bulls Under 184 The Key: Staring elimination in the face, the Bulls will put forth the kind of defensive effort that made them arguably the most-feared defensive team in the NBA during the regular season. It also plays in our favor that Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Each game of the series has gone over the total so far, and we are catching a good number in Chicago as a result. You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off three or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off four or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 69-33 mark the last five seasons. In addition, Chicago is 18-7 "Under" this season in home games when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5. We have seen just 179.5 total points scored on average in these games. The Bulls are 10-1 "Under" in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games under coach Thibodeau. We have seen just 175.3 total points scored on average in these games. Take the Under. |
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04-28-14 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -158 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB Situational Grand Slam on Giants -158 The Key: This is a tough situation for the Padres, who are playing their eighth straight on the road after making the long cross-country trip from Washington D.C. The Giants will be the more energized team as they've been able to rest their heads on their own pillows since returning from Colorado April 23. The Giants bring momentum into this series following a three-game sweep of Cleveland. And, they'll be hungry after losing the season's first series with San Diego. The Padres defeated Washington 4-2 yesterday, but they are 3-17 in road games following a win of 2 runs or less over the last two seasons. San Diego's Tyson Ross hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he's 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts this season. His clubs are 0-2 in his two starts in San Francisco. The Padres are 4-10 in Ross' last 14 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven on the road. Madison Bumgarner is always tough against the division, as evidenced by the Giants' 37-18 record in his last 55 starts versus the NL West. The Giants are 5-0 in his last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 16-4 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Most importantly, the Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last seven home starts versus the Padres. With Ross never winning in San Francisco, and Bumgarner having not lost there versus the Padres since 2009, we have a 100% perfect 9-0 angle in our favor. Take San Francisco. |
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04-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 203.5 | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Spurs/Mavericks Under 203.5 The Key: After allowing Dallas to shoot an average of 50.1% from the field in back-to-back defeats, the Spurs will pick up the intensity on the defensive end. With them doing so, the "Under" becomes a strong play tonight. When the total is 200.0 to 209.5, you want to take the "Under" on all teams playing with double revenge if they have a winning record and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 97-60 mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to take the "Under" when the line is 200.0 or higher on teams that are seeking revenge for an upset loss if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%. Doing so has produced a 33-11 mark the last five seasons. These systems speak to the way teams tighten the screws defensively in revenge spots. Take the Under. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball "Total" Annihilator on Angels/Yankees Under 8.0 The Key: I like the "Under" tonight in a matchup of pitchers in good form. LAs Garrett Richards has a 2.52 ERA through four starts, and this number shrinks to 1.00 in a pair of road starts. He held the Yankees to just two runs in his most recent start in Yankee Stadium last August. The Yanks are averaging just 3.3 runs per game against right-handed starters this season and have hit only 10 home runs against righty starters. They don't figure to take Richards deep as he hasn't given up a homer in his last five starts. The "Under" is 8-2 in Richards' last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. NYs Masahiro Tanaka has had his way with the opposition through his first four major-league starts. He has a 2.15 ERA on the season and a 1.81 ERA in a pair of home starts. He has 35 Ks and only two walks, and I expect to see another big strikeout number tonight against an Angels' club that averages over 8 Ks per game. Tanaka has nasty stuff, and even good hitting teams will struggle against him until they become more familiar with him. Take the Under. |
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04-27-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 192 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Nets Under 192 The Key: These teams combined for 200 points in Game 3, but the pace was very slow. Both teams attempted just 67 shots. Despite the slow pace, the game finished over the total because both teams shot a high percentage from the field. Expect another slow grind it out game, and expect the shooting to suffer as the defenses pick up the intensity. You want to take the "Under" on all teams when the total is 190.0 to 199.5 in the fourth game of a first round playoff series. That's because doing so has produced a 44-14 (76%) mark since 1996. Take the Under. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors +2 The Key: The Warriors are showing a lot of value in the home underdog role. They have been home dogs just three times this season and are 2-0-1 ATS in those games. Plus, they are 15-3 in their last 18 at home versus the Clippers, including 5-1 in their last six. Golden State lost Game 3 by two points, but it has responded well following defeats. The Warriors are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. They are 29-13 ATS under Mark Jackson following a loss of six points or less and 18-7 ATS under his watch following a loss of three points or fewer. We also can't ignore the fact the Warriors are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 first-round playoff games. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight first-round playoff contests. Take Golden State. |
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04-26-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 92-89 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Thunder -3 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Grizzlies and a 2-1 series deficit, I expect the Thunder to respond in a big way. Oklahoma City is 30-13 ATS off a loss of three points or less under coach Brooks and has won by an average of 5.3 points in these contests. It is 14-3 ATS off a defeat of three points or less the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average of 11.4 points. The Thunder are also 50-32 ATS when playing with double revenge under Brooks and 28-12 ATS off an upset loss on the road. The Thunder have settled for too many three-point shots the past two games. They are one of the top free throw shooting teams in the league, and I expect them to live at the line in this one as they put an emphasis on driving the ball to the basket. Lay the points. |
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04-26-14 | Detroit Tigers -146 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-5 | Loss | -146 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tigers -146 The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Sanchez, whose ERA (3.54) is nearly three runs lower than Hughes' ERA (6.43). Plus, Sanchez's ERA versus the Twins (2.57) is over two runs lower than Hughes' ERA versus the Tigers (4.87). The Tigers are 7-0 in Sanchez's last seven road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last four starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Hughes is 0-4 in his last four starts versus the Tigers. In addition, the Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 home games and 16-51 in their last 67 home games versus a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 19-47 the last three seasons in home games versus AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or lower and 15-46 during this span versus starters who give up an average of 0.5 home runs or less per game. You want to fade AL home teams that allow 5.2 runs per game or more after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more as doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons. Tigers are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Minnesota. Take the Tigers. |
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04-25-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 216 | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Trail Blazers Under 216.0 The Key: You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off two or more consecutive overs and is playing a team off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last three seasons. You also want to play the "Under" on all teams in the third game of a playoff series if the total line is 200.0 or greater. Doing so has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996. If the game takes place in the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 42-12. When the total is 200.0 or higher, you want to take the "Under" on all teams like Houston that are seeking revenge for an upset loss, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60%-75%. Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons. The last nine meetings between these teams have finished over the number. However, Game 1 would have finished under had it not gone to OT. Plus, these teams have finished over this number just two times in Portland since 2000. Take the Under. |
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04-25-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183.5 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Wizards Under 183.5 The Key: The Bulls have found out that they don't have the offensive firepower to outscore Washington. They know the only way they can get back in the series is to ramp it up on the defensive end. I'm confident they'll do just that tonight. Chicago is 13-3 "Under" when seeking revenge for two straight losses where its opponent scored 100 points or more under coach Thibodeau. You want to play the "Under" on road teams when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points if they are off two or more consecutive upset losses, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team. Doing so has produced a 39-15 mark since 1996. We have seen an average total line of 185.2 for these contests but an average total score of just 180.3. Chicago is 31-17 "Under" when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points this season. It is also 21-10 "Under" after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Washington is 9-1 "Under" as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less over the last two seasons while Chicago is 18-7 "Under" as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less under coach Thibodeau. The "Under" is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Washington. Take the Under. |
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04-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Mets -105 The Key: The Mets are showing some nice value at this price against a Miami club that is 1-8 on the road. Looking back, the Marlins are 27-72 in their last 99 road games. The Mets bring a ton of momentum into this series after taking three of four from St. Louis. They are 7-3 in their last 10, including 4-1 in their last five. New York scheduled starter Zack Wheeler has looked strong in his last two starts (both NY wins), and I expect him to keep right on dealing versus a Miami club that has struggled offensively on the road (2.4 runs per game). The Marlins are just 4-11 in Henderson Alvarez's last 15 starts, 0-4 in his last four division starts and 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Marlins are just 6-14 in their last 20 meetings in New York. Take the Mets. |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 98-96 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Warriors +2 The Key: The Warriors did what they set out to accomplish in L.A. (steal home-court advantage) so they won't be down on themselves following an ugly Game 2 loss. All that loss does is provide added motivation for the home team. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss, 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games while the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 35-6 mark the last five seasons, a 22-2 mark the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Golden State has won five straight at home against the Clippers by an average of 11.2 points. Take the Warriors. |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 215.5 | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
7* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Clippers/Warriors Under 215.5 The Key: Taking the Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996. If it is the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 40-12. In addition, taking the Under on all teams when the total is 200 or higher that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against a team off a blowout loss of 15 points or more has produced a 74-38 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that taking the Under on all teams when the total is 210 or higher that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has produced an 80-43 mark since 1996. We'll follow these time-tested systems to another big totals winner. Take the Under. |
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04-24-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays -134 | 11-4 | Loss | -134 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -134 The Key: I like the Blue Jays at home with Drew Hutchison on the hill. He's been lights out in three of four starts this season. One of those came against Baltimore, and he has a 1.00 ERA in three starts versus the Orioles. He has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings against the O's. Baltimore defeated the Jays with Bud Norris on the mound Apr. 12, but I don't expect an encore performance on the road where he is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA this season. Norris is 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA over his last six outings, losing all three on the road behind a 6.59 ERA while giving up a .304 average to opposing batters. The Orioles are 14-41 in the last 55 meetings in Toronto. Take the Jays. |
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04-23-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -6 | 112-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -6 The Key: Houston nearly won Game 1 despite shooting 41% from the field, 22.9% from three and 65% from the free throw line. James Harden had a very uncharacteristic game as he was just 8 of 28 from the floor. Houston settled for too many shots. It will take the ball more aggressively to the basket tonight while working for better shots. I'm also confident it will do a better job on LaMarcus Aldridge. Prior to the Game 1 loss, Houston had won three straight at home in the series by an average of 11.0 points. It has won five of the last seven meetings overall with the wins coming by an average of 13.2 points. Portland covered the number in Game 1, but it is still only 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine Conference Quarterfinal games. It is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days' rest. The Rockets are 20-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five. They have won by an average score of 110.2 to 97.1 in this spot. Lay the points. |
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04-23-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -156 | 3-0 | Loss | -156 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on A's -156 The Key: I missed with the A’s yesterday as they blew the game with two outs in the ninth, but I won't hesitate to come right back with them this afternoon as they are still 37-16 in their last 53 games following a loss and 18-6 the last three seasons when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent. Plus, they have the edge on the mound with Gray. The Athletics are 8-2 in Gray's last 10 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus American League West foes. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season and should have no trouble shutting down a Texas team that isn't familiar with him at all. Perez has been great early for Texas, but he was rocked in his only road start of the season and has an ERA of 5.79 against Oakland. He's lost three of his last four starts against the A's. You want to fade Wednesday underdogs of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start. Doing so has produced a 120-44 mark the last five seasons. Take the A's. |
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04-22-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -157 | 5-4 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -157 The Key: The A's haven't lost consecutive games all season, going 5-0 in their last five following a defeat. Looking back further, they are 37-15 in their last 52 games following a loss. The A's are 218-96 in their last 314 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 102-46 in their last 148 games as a favorite overall and 69-30 in their last 99 games as a home favorite. Oakland is 6-1 in Milone's last seven starts as a favorite and 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rangers are without Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar and Geovany Soto, and Shin-Soo Choo could miss this game as well. The banged-up Rangers are just 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog. Take the A's. |
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04-22-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187.5 | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Hawks Under 187.5 The Key: I'm taking the Under tonight because I'm confident the Pacers will show up defensively after giving up 101 points in Game 1. Indiana is 24-9 Under this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5, including 14-4 Under at home in this set. The Pacers are 11-2 this season in home games when the total is between 185.0 and 189.5, and we have seen just 176.1 total points scored on average in these contests. You also want to play the Under on any team (Atlanta in this case) that is off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 39-14 mark the last three seasons. Indiana isn't in good form offensively (which plays right into our hands), but it is more than capable of shutting down Atlanta on the defensive end. I expect a ferocious defensive effort from the Pacers in this highly motivated spot. Take the Under. |
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 98-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers -7.5 The Key: The Clippers have been an outstanding investment in bounce-back spots at 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss. Plus, they are 12-2 ATS this season following an upset loss and have won by an average of 11.2 points in these games. They are also 13-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss and have won these contests by an average of 11.3 points. The home team is still 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with the 7 wins coming by an average of 14.14 points. Lay the number.
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04-21-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 212.5 | 98-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors Under 212.5 The Key: There is some overwhelming history supporting this play on the UNDER. First off, You want to play the UNDER on any team that has gone over the total in 3 consecutive games or more when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone over in 4 or more consecutive games. Doing so has produced a 67-29 mark the last five seasons. If the total is set at 200 or higher, the above system tightens up to 39-16. In addition, you want to take the UNDER on any team when the total is 200 or higher that is seeking revenge for an upset defeat if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%. Doing so has produced a 33-7 mark the last five seasons. Lastly, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is 210 or higher that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games, provided they have a winning record and are playing a winning team, has produced a 45-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams combined for 214 points in Game 1, but we've seen 209 total points or less in six of their seven previous meetings. Take the Under. |
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04-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's +1.5 (-150) The Key: The A's are showing some nice value catching 1.5 runs at this price. Texas has lost four of six road games this season, and it is 4-12 in its last 16 series openers dating back to last season. The Rangers haven't been on the road since April 9, and they are 0-4 in their last four games versus Oakland. Darvish has been brilliant thus far. The Rangers have won each of his three starts, but the last two wins came by a single run. Darvish has had a rough go of it versus Oakland. The Rangers are 0-6 in his last six starts versus the A's, including 0-2 in two career starts in Oakland. He was rocked in both of those starts, giving up 11 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Straily has been good against Texas, going 2-0 in his last two starts against the Rangers. In six career starts against them, the A's have won or lost by a single run in five of them. Take the A's on the run line.
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04-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 102-93 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls -4.5 The Key: After losing the season's first two meetings in January, Chicago flexed its muscles with a 96-78 victory at Washington earlier this month. Despite the big win, the Bulls will not be overlooking Washington because it defeated them by 14 on this floor earlier this season. Chicago has edges in playoff experience, on defense and in the coaching box. Consider that Thibodeau is 205-107 and has led the Bulls to the playoffs in all four seasons. Wittman is in the postseason for the first time. You want to fade underdogs that are seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss when they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss. Doing so has produced a 95-60 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points. |
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04-20-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals -137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -137 The Key: This is a good price to bet Strasburg at home. He is coming off a bad outing in Miami, which means he'll be extremely focused here. The guy rarely has back-to-back poor showings. The Nationals are 9-3 in Strasburg's last 12 starts, 4-1 in his last 5 home starts, 12-2 in his last 14 Sunday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 game 4 of a series starts. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 game 4's of a series while the Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 game 4's. The Nationals are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. You want to back favorites with a money line of -110 or higher in the first half of the season if they are batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games. Doing so has produced a 102-40 mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to fade road teams with a starting pitcher who gives up an average of 1.0 home run or more per start if the bullpen has thrown 5 innings or less over the last 3 games. That's because doing so has produced an 82-37 mark the last 5 seasons. Take the Nats. |