12-11-15 |
Bucks +8 v. Raptors |
|
83-90 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +8
The Key: The Toronto Raptors are coming off a huge 97-94 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. That win sets them up for a massive letdown spot here as they host the Milwaukee Bucks two nights later. The Raptors shouldn't be 8-point favorites considering they are missing two starters right now in Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll. Betting against home teams off an upset win as a home underdog against an opponent off a home loss has produced a 37-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Toronto is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games off a close home win by 3 points or less. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Milwaukee.
|
12-11-15 |
Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 192.5 |
Top |
107-95 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/76ers UNDER 192.5
The Key: The 76ers and Pistons played in some ugly defensive battles in their final two meetings last year. THey combined for 158 and 177 points, both of which came in Philadelphia. The 76ers are awful offensively once again this season as they are 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons have also struggled on that end as they're 24th in offensive efficiency. But the Pistons do lock it down defensively, ranking 8th in the NBA in efficiency on that end. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 games, while the UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as well. Take the UNDER.
|
12-11-15 |
Heat v. Pacers -4.5 |
|
83-96 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
6* Heat/Pacers ESPN National TV Annihilator on Indiana -4.5
The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be motivated to put to end a 3-game losing streak. They lost road games against the Blazers and Jazz before coming home to lose to the unbeaten Warriors. But the Pacers should have no problem getting back on track against a team they've owned at home. They haven't lost at home in the regular season to the Heat since February of 2012. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings. Indiana is 35-13 in its last 48 home meetings with Miami. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Indiana is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Indiana.
|
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -10 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Vikings/Cardinals TNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -10
The Key: The Cardinals are on a mission to finish out the season strong after floundering last year and giving way to the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title. They are off to a good start with six straight victories coming in, including a 27-3 win over the Rams on the road last week. The Vikings lost 7-38 to the Seahawks last week and will really struggle to score against this elite Arizona defense. Minnesota's defense, which is extremely banged up right now, will also struggle to slow down Carson Palmer and Arizona's top-ranked offense. This one just has blowout written all over it. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games. Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against NFC opponents. Take Arizona.
|
12-10-15 |
76ers +7 v. Nets |
|
91-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +7
The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an embarrassing 51-point loss to the Spurs last time out. They have had two days in between games since that ugly loss. Look for them to come back re-energized and to show a lot of fight tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. This will be just the 2nd time all season that the Nets have actually been favored. They lost at home to the Lakers 98-104 as 3-point favorites in the first instance. The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams, and four of the last five meetings overall. The 76ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Nets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Philadelphia.
|
12-09-15 |
Dayton v. Vanderbilt -8.5 |
Top |
72-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Vanderbilt -8.5
The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores are one of the best teams in the country. They have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in lined games. Their only two losses this season came on the road to Kansas (63-70) and Baylor (67-69) by a combined 9 points. Those are also two of the best teams in the land. Vanderbilt's numbers are out of this world. It is scoring 83.4 points against teams that allow 73.5 points, and allowing 60.6 points against teams that average 79.3 points. After the loss to Kansas, Vanderbilt bounced back with a 102-52 home win over Detroit. I look for the Commodores to bounce back from their loss to Baylor in a big way at home tonight. Dayton is 6-1 this season, but I can't take the Flyers seriously when they lost to Xavier 61-90 two games back. Plus, this will be their first true road game of the season in a hostile atmosphere. The Commodores are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 33.0 points per game. The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Take this combined 19-1 angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Vanderbilt.
|
12-09-15 |
Bulls v. Celtics -2.5 |
|
100-105 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* Bulls/Celtics ESPN National TV Annihilator on Boston -2.5
The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season. They get after it defensively, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are outscoring the opposition by 5.3 points per game overall and 7.9 points per game at home. Their last four games have been mighty impressive as they've gone 4-0 ATS. They have posted double-digit road wins over Miami (by 10), Sacramento (by 17) and New Orleans (by 18) with their only loss coming at San Antonio (by 3) as 8.5-point underdogs. The Bulls are 6-12 ATS this season and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with winning records. The Celtics have gone 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games following a win. Take Boston.
|
12-08-15 |
Warriors v. Pacers +6 |
Top |
131-123 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Indiana Pacers +6
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are ripe for the upset tonight. They will be playing their 5th straight road games here and their 3rd game in 4 days. They nearly lost to Utah in a 3-point win and Toronto in a 3-point win. I believe Indiana is better than both of those teams and is good enough to hand the Warriors their first defeat of the season tonight. Indiana has won six straight home games by nearly 12 points per game on average. The Pacers are coming in on 2 days' rest, which is important considering their are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Indiana.
|
12-08-15 |
West Virginia +5 v. Virginia |
|
54-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* WVU/Virginia ESPN National TV Annihilator on West Virginia +5
The Key: While Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State are getting all of the national attention in the Big 12, everyone is sleeping on West Virginia. The Mountaineers have opened 7-0 this season, and the numbers they are putting up are out of this world. They are averaging 88.4 points against teams that allow 74.9 points, and they are allowing 57.6 points against teams that average 72.6. So they are scoring nearly 14 points more per game than their opponents allow, and they are allowing 15 points per game less than their opponents average. Virginia is a great team, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The Cavaliers have been vulnerable as they lost to George Washington earlier this season, and the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy, with the exception of a 6-point win over Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are down this season. WVU is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Virginia is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less. The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams that outscore foes by 12-plus points per game. Take West Virginia.
|
12-07-15 |
Cowboys +3.5 v. Redskins |
Top |
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* Cowboys/Redskins MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5
The Key: With a win Monday, the Cowboys can pull within one game of the NFC East lead. With a loss, they are pretty much done. It's safe to say that they are going to be laying it all on the line to try to get a win given the situation. The Cowboys are 0-7 without Tony Romo, but they have been competitive at least. Five of those losses came by a TD or less, and two were in overtime. While I expect the Cowboys to win outright tonight, there is also a good chance it's decided by 3 points or less either way. The Cowboys have had extra prep time because they played last Thursday. The Cowboys have been the better team statistically. They are only getting outgained by 0.6 yards per game, while the Redskins are getting outgained by 27.1 yards per game. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played on a grass field. Its running game will be the difference in this one as Darren McFadden has a big day against a Washington defense that is giving up 127 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. Take Dallas.
|
12-07-15 |
Suns v. Bulls -5.5 |
|
103-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls -5.5
The Key: The Phoenix Suns are in an awful situation tonight. This is the finale of a 6-game road trip for them. They have lost four straight on this road trip, and now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. The Suns are simply running on fumes right now. The Bulls will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, so look for them to win all of the hustle plays tonight. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Suns. The Suns are 3-8 on the road, while the Bulls are 7-2 at home. Chicago is coming off a loss to Charlotte, and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a defeat. In fact, the Bulls haven't lost two straight games all season. Take Chicago.
|
12-07-15 |
IUPU-Indianapolis +21 v. Purdue |
|
53-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on IUPUI +21
The Key: The Purdue Boilermakers are getting a lot of love right now from the betting public due to their 8-0 start this season. But after back-to-back huge wins over Pitt and New Mexico, this is the definition of a letdown spot for the Boilermakers. I don't believe they'll be able to cover this massive 21-point spread against crosstown opponent IUPUI. This is an IUPUI team that returned 4 starters from last year. Yes, it is just 3-6 this season, but it has played a brutal schedule with seven road games against two home games. All six of its losses have come on the road, but five of those losses came by 10 points or less. It also beat Indiana State 72-70 as 8-point road dogs, and only lost to Marquette 71-75 as 13.5-point road dogs. I've seen enough from this team to know that it can stay within 21 points of Purdue tonight. It also helps that 2015 Big Ten Player of the Year Raphael Davis will likely miss his 4th straight game for the Boilermakers tonight. IUPUI is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 years. IUPUI is 10-1 ATS in road games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past 2 seasons. Take IUPUI.
|
12-06-15 |
Warriors v. Nets +10.5 |
|
114-98 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +10.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are coming off a hard-fought 112-109 win at Toronto last night. Now they have to come back a day later and are being asked to lay double-digit points to the Brooklyn Nets, who had yesterday off. I see no way the Warriors find a way to win by double-digits today. The Nets are 4-0 in their last four home games overall. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and the Nets took the Warriors to overtime on the road in their first meeting this season. Also, the Warriors haven't beaten the Nets by more than 9 points in any of the last 11 meetings in this series. Take Brooklyn.
|
12-06-15 |
Chiefs -3 v. Raiders |
|
34-20 |
Win
|
105 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* AFC West Game of the Week on Kansas City Chiefs -3
The Key: The Chiefs cannot be stopped right now. They have gone 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall, winning by an average of 19.8 points per game. Their defense has been dynamite in giving up 12.2 points per game during the winning streak, and 18 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games. Kansas City has had Oakland's number, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings and outscoring the Raiders by an average of 14.0 points per game over those four contests. Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as a home dog of 3 points or less. The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings with the Chiefs going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland. Take Kansas City.
|
12-06-15 |
Seahawks -1 v. Vikings |
Top |
38-7 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -1
The Key: The Seattle Seahawks are only 6-5, but you could make the argument that they are still the best team in the NFC. They have held a 4th quarter lead in all 11 of their games. Russell Wilson and the offense put up 39 points on the Steelers last week thanks to five touchdown passes from their star quarterback. Look for this team to continue its second-half surge with a win over the Vikings Sunday. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season and aren't as good as their 8-3 record. Teddy Bridgewater is going to have his hands full against this Seattle defense, which is one of the best in the league. Seattle ranks 5th in the NFL against the run giving up just 92.9 yards per game. It is well-equipped to stop Adrian Peterson and will force Bridgewater to have to make more plays than he's used to. The Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 December games. Seattle is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. defenses that allow 61% completions or more in the second half of the season. Take Seattle.
|
12-06-15 |
Jaguars v. Titans -2 |
|
39-42 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* AFC South Game of the Week on Tennessee Titans -2
The Key: The Titans have had some heartbreaking losses this year as five of their nine losses have come by 6 points or less. They lost 13-19 to the Jaguars despite leading 13-9 heading into the 4th quarter two weeks ago. Now they'll want revenge on these Jaguars. You have to like their chances considering these teams have split the season series each of the last five years. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings as well. The Jaguars are 1-4 in true road games this season, losing by 9.4 points per game. The Titans have the better defense, ranking 7th in the NFL in giving up 331.8 yards per game. The Jaguars rank 20th in total defense at 358.5 yards per game. I like this matchup for the Titans, who rank 6th in the NFL against the pass at 224.1 yards per game. Blake Bortles will have to work for everything he gets. Take Tennessee.
|
12-05-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks +2 |
|
91-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +2
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks both played last night. The Knicks won their second straight game 108-91 over the Nets, while the Bucks lost on the road 95-102 to the Pistons. The Bucks have a shorter flight back to Milwaukee and will be the more motivated team heading into this game considering they are coming off consecutive losses. They really need a win to turn their season around, and I look for them to get it here. Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS following two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss to an opponent against an opponent off a road loss to a division foe are 27-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Milwaukee.
|
12-05-15 |
USC +4.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
22-41 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +4.5
The Key: It's tough to beat a team twice in the same season. That's especially a team as talented as this USC outfit. These players are motivated to win for their new head coach in Clay Helton, who was just given a 5-year contract to stay at USC. They love this guy and have responded well to him. He has led them to a 5-2 record with his only losses coming against Notre Dame and Oregon, which are two of the best teams in the country. Cody Kessler is going to move the ball up and down the field on this Stanford defense, which is without two starting cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris. Notre Dame did the same thing against Stanford last week, and the Cardinal were fortunate to escape with a 1-point victory on a last-second field goal. With revenge in mind, the Trojans will be the more motivated team here. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take USC.
|
12-05-15 |
Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 50 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
|
6* Air Force/SDSU MWC Championship *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 50
The Key: I fully expect a defensive battle between San Diego State and Air Force Saturday in the Mountain West Championship. These are two teams who run the football. Air Force averages 60 rushing attempts for 323 yards per game, and just 12 pass attempts per contest. SDSU averages 48 rushing attempts and 235 yards per game, and just 19 passes per contest. Both teams are great against the run, especially SDSU. SDSU allows 95 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Air Force gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The last three meetings in his series have gone under 50 combined points. They combined for 44 last year, 47 in 2013 and 37 in 2012. Expect that trend to continue this year. SDSU is 11-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. SDSU is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game. Take the UNDER.
|
12-05-15 |
VMI v. Ohio State -15 |
|
62-89 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Ohio State -15
The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes are shockingly off to just a 2-4 start this season. After opening with 22-point and 27-points wins over Mount St. Mary's and Grambling, they have lost four in a row coming in. But all four losses came to quality teams in UT Arlington, LA Tech, Memphis and Virginia. All four losses also came by 8 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Memphis and a 6-point loss to Virginia, so they are not broken. It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated to get back in the win column today. Now they get to face an awful team in Virginia Military. VMI is 0-3 on the road this season, losing to Penn State by 12, VA Tech by 24 and Campbell by 1. Those losses to Penn State and VA Tech make me think that Ohio State won't have a problem covering this 15-point spread because it is the best team that VMI will have faced this season. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Ohio State.
|
12-05-15 |
Southern Miss +7.5 v. Western Kentucky |
|
28-45 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
6* Southern Miss/WKU C-USA Championship *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss +7.5
The Key: Southern Miss has won six straight coming into this game with all six wins coming by 21 points or more. They just keep getting better as the season goes on, and they just upset Louisiana Tech 58-24 as 5-point underdogs in their last game, covering the spread by 39 points. The betting public has not caught on to this team yet, which is why they are once again showing great value as 7.5-point dogs. WKU only beat LA Tech 41-38 at home earlier this season. Common opponents show that Southern Miss is clearly the better team. They are more balanced on offense, and they have the better defense. The Golden Eagles have outgained each of their last eight opponents by at least 150 yards. They are 10-2 ATS in all games this season, and 8-0 ATS off one or more straight overs the last two years. Take Southern Miss.
|
12-04-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green -13 |
|
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* Northern Illinois/Bowling Green ESPN 2 National TV Annihilator on Bowling Green -13
The Key: Northern Illinois freshman QB Tommy Fiedler was a 5th-string QB coming into the year. But injuries to the other four quarterbacks ahead of him have forced him into action in the MAC Championship Game. Needless to say, I don't expect it to work out very well for the Huskies tonight. Bowling Green wants revenge from a 51-17 loss to NIU in the MAC Championship last year. The Falcons have the team to get it as they've been the best team in the MAC this season. They boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 47.0 points, 553.1 yards per game and 7.0 per play in MAC action, and an underrated defense that is allowing 21.9 points, 394.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play within the MAC. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS off a win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game this season. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Falcons straight to the bank tonight. Take Bowling Green.
|
12-04-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Missouri -3.5 |
|
71-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Missouri -3.5
The Key: Northern Illinois is getting way too much respect from the books tonight due to its 7-0 start. It couldn't have played an easier schedule as it has played six games at home against CS-Northridge, South Dakota, Wright State, Eureka, Indiana-Northwest and Chicago State. It has only played one road game, which came at Idaho in a 7-point win. Now the Huskies will face their toughest test of the season on the road against a team from the SEC in the Missouri Tigers. Missouri is 3-3, but its three losses have come to Xavier, Kansas State and Northwestern all on the road. The Tigers hung with both Xavier and Northwestern, which are two very good teams this year. Missouri is 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game. It is shooting 49.4% at home and allowing just 38.3% at home. The Tigers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take Missouri.
|
12-04-15 |
Nets v. Knicks -2.5 |
Top |
91-108 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks -2.5
The Key: The New York Knicks are 9-10 this season and things are looking up in the Big Apple for the first time in a long time. Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets are 5-13 this season and clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA. Last year, the Nets beat the Knicks 4-0 in the season series, but that was an awful Knicks team. Plus, the last three games were all decided by 5 points or less. The Knicks will want revenge from that season sweep. The Nets are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point dogs. They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, but most of those came as big underdogs. This line has now been over-adjusted because the Nets have actually won two straight games for the first time this season coming in. But that works against them considering the Nets are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games following 2 or more consecutive wins. Take New York.
|
12-03-15 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies +3.5 |
|
103-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
6* Spurs/Grizzlies TNT National TV Annihilator on Memphis +3.5
The Key: This is an awful spot for the aging San Antonio Spurs. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich rests some of his aging players in this one. Either way, I like this spot for the Grizzlies, who had Wednesday off and will be the fresher team. I also like the way the Grizzlies are playing right now. They have won eight of their last 10 games overall. One of the two losses came 82-92 at San Antonio on November 21, so they'll also be out for revenge from that loss two weeks later. Memphis is 70-42 ATS in its last 112 vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 or fewer points per game. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents. San Antonio is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 Thursday games. Take Memphis.
|
12-03-15 |
Packers -3 v. Lions |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Packers/Lions NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3
The Key: There's no way the Green Bay Packers are going to get swept by the Detroit Lions. They shouldn't have lost their first meeting when they were beaten 16-18 at home by the Lions despite outgaining them 372-287. Their offense has been held in check in recent games, but now Aaron Rodgers and company get to go indoors inside Ford Field and should get untracked. The Packers are playing well defensively, giving up 16 points and 306 yards per game in their last three. The Lions have played well here of late, but that has only kept this line lower than it should be. The Packers need to win the NFC North, and they're one game behind Minnesota, so it's time for them to put their best foot forward. Detroit is 1-12 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. Take Green Bay.
|
12-03-15 |
North Texas +16.5 v. Texas-Arlington |
|
67-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on North Texas +16.5
The Key: Texas-Arlington could not be more overvalued than it is right now. The betting public has seen it beat teams like Ohio State and Memphis, while also challenging Louisiana Tech and Texas. Arlington is coming off a 73-80 (OT) loss to Texas on Tuesday, and now I expect it to suffer a hangover from that defeat. That also makes this a quick turnaround for Arlington, which only has one day in between games to get ready for North Texas. I had North Texas as 20-point dogs against Northern Iowa last time out. That was an unfortunate loss as the Mean Green actually held a 2-point halftime lead over the Panthers before getting outscored by 25 points after intermission. Look for them to stay within 16 points of this Arlington squad, which isn't as good at Northern Iowa. Arlington is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after winning 3 of its last 4. Arlington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after an ATS win. Take North Texas.
|
12-02-15 |
Detroit +21.5 v. Vanderbilt |
|
52-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit +21.5
The Key: The betting public has been quick to back the Vanderbilt Commodores after their 5-1 start this season. But their first five games couldn't have been any easier as they played Austin Peay, Gardner Webb, Stony Brook, St. John's and Wake Forest. Keep in mind they only beat Stony Brook by 7 at home. They are coming off their first loss of the season to No. 4 ranked Kansas 63-70. I expect them to suffer a hangover from that defeat. I also expect them to be looking ahead to another huge showdown at Baylor in their next game on December 6th. That makes this a sandwich game for the Commodores. Detroit is not a bad team as its two losses have come on the road to Pitt by 16 as 17.5-point dogs and Oral Roberts by 5 as 7-point dogs. The Titans are an elite offensive team that is putting up 96.0 points per game on 49.5% shooting. They have a whopping six players averaging 10 points or more, so they share the ball well and get everyone involved. The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Detroit.
|
12-02-15 |
76ers v. Knicks UNDER 192.5 |
|
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5
The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions. These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points. They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings. The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest. The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games. The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall. Take the UNDER.
|
12-02-15 |
Warriors v. Hornets +9.5 |
Top |
116-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +9.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are 19-0 this season. The betting public has been backing them in stride too, and they've been rewarded with a 13-6 ATS record. But the Warriors have now set some expectations for the betting public that they cannot live up to. They are 9.5-point road favorites over the Hornets here when they shouldn't be. After all, Charlotte is better than it gets credit for. It is 10-7 on the season with five of its seven losses coming by 8 points or fewer. The Hornets rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets also check in on two days of rest, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this situation. They'll give the Warriors their best shot tonight, and that will be good enough to stay within 9.5 points. Take Charlotte.
|
12-01-15 |
North Dakota State +16 v. Iowa State |
|
64-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State +16
The Key: The North Dakota State Bison are coming off a 23-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Summit League Tournament. They returned four starters from last year's team and three key reserves, so they have almost everyone back. They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming by a final of 74-80 on the road to Illinois. The Bison held a 14-point lead in the first half of that game before getting outscored 52-35 after intermission by the Illini. Iowa State capped off an Emerald Coast Classic Tournament championship with an 84-73 win over Illinois. But the Cyclones trailed 57-58 with 11 1/2 minutes remaining in that game. I believe that common opponent gives a good indication that the Bison can hang with the Cyclones and stay within this 16-point spread. Iowa State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off four straight games where it scored 80 points or more. The Bison are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Take North Dakota State.
|
12-01-15 |
Wizards +9 v. Cavs |
Top |
97-85 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* Wizards/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +9
The Key: The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. But with this slow start comes some line value that is tough to pass up. After losing four straight coming in, and facing the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers, the Wizards won't be lacking any motivation tonight. They have had two days off in between games to get ready for Cleveland, too. Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards, but the Cavs are 0-8 ATS against teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Washington is 44-23 ATS in its last 67 road games off a close loss by 3 point or less. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. Take Washington.
|
11-30-15 |
Blazers +8 v. Clippers |
|
87-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers +8
The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who played the Timberwolves yesterday. Not only will this be a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Clippers, it will also be their 5th game in 7 days and 8th game in 12 days. They have nothing left in the tank for this game against the Blazers tonight. Portland has not lost by more than 6 points to Los Angeles in any of the last 8 meetings in this series. I think we're getting great value with the Blazers here given the rest situation. Take Portland.
|
11-30-15 |
Ravens v. Browns -3 |
Top |
33-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
35 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3
The Key: The Ravens are an absolute mess right now. They are without their three best offensive players in Joe Flacco, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett. I give them little chance of staying competitive in this game against the Cleveland Browns as a result. I also like that the Browns are coming off their bye week. I like that the Browns have benched Johnny Manziel in favor of Josh McCown, who is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league. McCown is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards and an 11-4 TD/INT ratio this year. He threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 road win at Baltimore in their first meeting. The Browns outgained the Ravens 505 to 377 in that game. Another dominant performance can be expected from the Browns at home this time around. The Ravens are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland.
|
11-30-15 |
North Texas +20.5 v. Northern Iowa |
|
70-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on North Texas +20.5
The Key: North Texas hasn't covered a spread yet (0-3 ATS) this season and is undervalued as a result. Northern Iowa is 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, which includes an upset 71-67 home win over North Carolina. It's clear to me that this line is way inflated given the starts these teams have had this season. North Texas is 2-3 this year, but two losses have come by exactly two points. Northern Iowa has just one win by more than 20 points during its 4-1 start. The Panthers are a slow-it-down team, which makes it hard for them to cover big spreads like this one. The Mean Green are scoring 86.2 points per game on 49.7% shooting, so their offense is fully capable of keeping them competitive in this game. Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off a win by 30 points or more. Take North Texas.
|
11-29-15 |
Patriots v. Broncos +3 |
Top |
24-30 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Pats/Broncos Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Denver +3
The Key: The Patriots are without their two best slot receivers in Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. They're also without their most dangerous weapon out of the backfield in Dion Lewis. This short-handed club is going to struggle against this elite Denver defense today. The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (34), fewest TD passes allowed (8) and fewest passing yards per game (190.6). They held Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards at home. Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning right now. He threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears last week. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Denver.
|
11-29-15 |
Wolves +9.5 v. Clippers |
|
99-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5
The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the most profitable road team to back this season. They are 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in their eight road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game away from home. I look for this trend to continue today as they are once again catching too many points against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Timberwolves have won three in a row coming in, including a 101-91 road win at Sacramento on Friday. The Clippers aren't playing well enough to be 9.5-point favorites here. They are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Timberwolves improve to 9-0 ATS on the road in 2015. Take Minnesota.
|
11-29-15 |
Bucs +3 v. Colts |
|
12-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are by far the superior team in this one with the Indianapolis Colts. The Bucs rank 7th in yardage differential (+33.0/game) while the Colts rank 27th (-46.4 yards/game). The Bucs are 8th in total offense (370.7 YPG) while the Colts are 18th in total offense (345.9 YPG). The Bucs are 13th in total defense (339.1 YPG) while the Colts are 27th (392.3 YPG). Add it all up, and believe it or not, the Bucs are the better team. They are 4-1 ATS in road games this season with outright wins over the Falcons, Eagles and Saints, and a 1-point loss to Houston. They clearly love playing in domes with the way they beat the Falcons and Saints. Take Tampa Bay.
|
11-29-15 |
Bills v. Chiefs -4 |
|
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* Bills/Chiefs AFC Annihilator on Kansas City -4
The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They have outscored their opponents 130-39 in the process. They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents as well. The Chiefs have allowed 18 points or fewer in 6 straight, yielding just 12.2 PPG over that span. The Bills are on a short week and should suffer a hangover from their loss to the Patriots last week. QB Tyrod Taylor will play, but he's not going to be healthy with that shoulder injury suffered against New England. The Chiefs are 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Take Kansas City.
|
11-28-15 |
Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 197 |
|
87-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197
The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA. The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions. They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game. They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions. New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively. Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall. Take the UNDER.
|
11-28-15 |
Arkansas State v. New Mexico State +17.5 |
|
52-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17.5
The Key: The New Mexico State Aggies have quietly been a money-making machine down the stretch. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall. They beat Idaho 55-48 as 7-point home dogs before going on the road and beating Texas State 31-21 as 16.5-point dogs and LA-Lafayette 37-34 as 14.5-point dogs. Now they're going to be even more motivated to go up against the first-place team in the Sun Belt in the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Red Wolves are going to think that they can just show up and win this one, but that mindset is going to keep the Aggies in the game for four quarters. NMSU certainly has the offense to make this interesting as it has put up 641, 527 and 498 total yards in its last three games overall. Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-86 ATS since 1992. Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 28-8 ATS over the last 10 years. Take New Mexico State.
|
11-28-15 |
George Washington v. Cincinnati -5.5 |
|
56-61 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
|
6* GW/Cincinnati Barclays Center Classic *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati -5.5
The Key: Mick Cronin's Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country this season. They are off to a 6-0 start behind their five returning starters. Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring teams by 31.4 points per game. Because they had a close call against Nebraska yesterday, I believe this line is smaller than it should be against George Washington. The Colonials are also 6-0, but they've had much closer games than Cincinnati as four of their six wins have come by single-digits. George Washington is 0-6 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games off 4 straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers. Take Cincinnati.
|
11-28-15 |
Clemson v. South Carolina +19 |
Top |
37-32 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19
The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week. But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game. They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result. They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier. They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away. If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home. South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game. Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game. ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.'' This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game. Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game. It is too big of a favorite once again this week. Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons. The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina. Take South Carolina.
|
11-28-15 |
Virginia Tech -3 v. Virginia |
|
23-20 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech -3
The Key: Frank Beamer has stated this will be his last season. Virginia Tech needs a victory at rival Virginia on Saturday in the Commonwealth Cup to send Beamer into retirement with a 23rd consecutive bowl game appearance. The Hokies fought valiantly for him in a 27-30 (OT) loss to North Carolina last week, and the Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the country. The task is much easier against the 4-7 Cavaliers this week. VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Virginia with all 11 victories coming by 3 points or more. VA Tech has held Virginia to 21 or fewer points in all 11 games, including 14 or less in 9 of those. The Hokies are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Mike London is 3-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Virginia. Take Virginia Tech.
|
11-27-15 |
San Diego State v. West Virginia -2.5 |
|
50-72 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 0 m |
Show
|
6* SDSU/WVU FS1 National TV Annihilator on West Virginia -2.5
The Key: West Virginia is clearly one of the most improved teams in the country this season. It is 5-0 and has won all five games by 8 points or more, including four by 13 points or more. Three of the five wins have come by 41 or more points as well. San Diego State has already lost two games, including a 43-49 home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock as 16.5-point favorites. I think we're getting great value here on the Mountaineers as only 2.5-point favorites in this Las Vegas Invitational Championship Game. The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Take West Virginia.
|
11-27-15 |
Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers |
|
90-111 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* Pelicans/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +6.5
The Key: The Pelicans have won three straight coming in thanks to finally getting healthy. Anthony Davis has been a big reason why, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 17 rebounds in all three games. The Pelicans are averaging 115.3 points during this win streak. Sixth man Ryan Anderson has averaged 26.6 points over his last five games. Backup point guard Ish Smith is contributing 18.0 points and 9.5 assists per game over his last four. The Clippers have lost 8 of their last 11 and should not be this heavily favored here. That includes an 11-point home loss to Utah, an 11-point home loss to Toronto, and an 11-point road loss to Portland in three of their last four games overall. Los Angeles is 20-34 ATS in its last 54 games as a home favorite, and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 November home games. The Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings. Take New Orleans.
|
11-27-15 |
Oregon State +36 v. Oregon |
|
42-52 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
6* Oregon State/Oregon Civil War Rivalry Play on Oregon State +36
The Key: The Oregon Ducks made a valiant effort to try and win the Pac-12 North for a second consecutive season. They won each of their last five games, which includes victories over both Stanford and USC in their last two games. But they still needed Stanford to lose to Cal last week, and that didn't happen, which means Oregon will not be going to the Pac-12 Championship. That is a huge emotional letdown for the Ducks right now, and one that is getting overlooked here with this massive 36-point spread. Plus, records haven't really mattered in the Civil War as the Beavers have pulled off some huge upsets. Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with Oregon State, which has gone 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall. But with that poor ATS record comes some serious line value here as 36-point dogs. The Beavers have only been dogs of more than 21 points once this season. They were 26-point dogs at Utah and only lost 12-27. Oregon State hasn't lost to Oregon by more than 28 points in any of the last 9 meetings. It only lost 35-36 as 24-point dogs in its last trip to Eugene in 2013. Take Oregon State.
|
11-27-15 |
Iowa v. Nebraska +2.5 |
|
28-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
6* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +2.5
The Key: This is a tough scheduling spot for Iowa and a great one for Nebraska. The Huskers had a bye last week and have had 12 days in between games as a result. The Hawkeyes had to play Purdue last Saturday and have had only 5 days between games. That extra rest of a big reason I'm taking Nebraska here. But I also like the fact that a win get the Huskers to a bowl game, plus they are better than their 5-6 record. Their six losses this season have come by an average of 3.8 points per game, so they've had brutal luck in close games all year. They finally got some luck to go their way in a 39-38 upset win over Michigan State in their last home game, and they followed that up with a 31-14 win at Rutgers. The Huskers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. teams who win more than 75% of their games and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. Mike Riley is 19-8 ATS off a bye week in all games he has coached. Take Nebraska.
|
11-27-15 |
Western Michigan v. Toledo -8 |
Top |
35-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* Western Michigan/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Toledo -8
The Key: Toledo is 9-1 and has a chance to cap the regular season with its best record in 15 years and play for the MAC Championship. A win would put the Rockets in the MAC Championship for the first time since 2004. They have this opportunity because Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday. Now I fully expect this re-energized group to take advantage and to pick up its sixth consecutive victory over Western Michigan in this series. The Rockets scored on their first six possessions and held Bowling Green's high-octane offense to a season-low 368 total yards in a 44-28 road win last week. Western Michigan gives up 185.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 525 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in its last two games. Kareem Hunt has gained 406 yards with six touchdowns over his last three games and is primed for a big day. The Rockets are 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Take Toledo.
|
11-26-15 |
Texas Tech v. Texas +2 |
|
48-45 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +2
The Key: Texas Tech has already clinched its bowl berth, but Texas still needs two more wins to get bowl eligible. I like the motivational angle of the Longhorns here. I also like the fact that the Longhorns simply have the Red Raiders figures out. Indeed, they are 6-0 in their last six meetings with all six wins coming by double-digits. That includes a 34-13 road win last year and a 41-16 home win in 2013. Also, Texas Tech hasn't won in Austin since 1997. It has lost eight straight visits by an average of 26.3 points per game. The Longhorns are 41-13-1 at home on Thanksgiving Day. They have rushed for 256.4 yards per game over their last five games. Texas Tech gives up 259.9 rushing yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the country. Take Texas.
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys +1.5 |
Top |
33-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Panthers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day *FEAST* on Dallas +1.5
The Key: The Cowboys are showing solid value here as home underdogs to the Carolina Panthers. Jason Garrett is 23-13 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Cowboys. Dallas is so much better with Tony Romo it's not even funny. The Cowboys are 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him this season. They won 24-14 over the Dolphins last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them 386-210 for the game. The Cowboys now have an elite offense again to go with one of the NFL's best defenses, giving up just 335.5 yards per game. The Panthers have had a very easy road schedule. They are 4-0 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against the Jags, Bucs & Titans. Dallas has won each of its last five meetings with Carolina and will make it six in a row here. Take Dallas.
|
11-25-15 |
Massachusetts +4 v. Creighton |
|
76-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on UMass +4
The Key: It's pretty clear that UMass is a better team that Creighton and shouldn't be an underdog in this game. The Minutemen have opened 4-0, which is really impressive when you consider they have been a dog in two games. They beat Harvard 69-63 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs. They also crushed Clemson 82-65 on a neutral court despite being 7.5-point dogs in that game. I have not been impressed with Creighton, which is 3-1. It was crushed 65-86 at Indiana, and it only beat an awful Rutgers team 85-75 as 12-point favorites on a neutral court. The other two wins came against overmatched Texas Southern and UT-San Antonio teams. The Minutemen are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. UMass is 8-1 ATS in its last nine November games. Creighton is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in. Take UMass.
|
11-25-15 |
Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 196 |
Top |
83-88 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 196
The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are playing tremendous defense this season. They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions. But their offense has really been lacking recently. They've averaged 93.3 points in their last three games and have turned the ball over 39 times in their last two. This has typically been a low-scoring series of late as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. They have combined for 180, 195 and 192 points in their last three meetings dating back to last season. Dallas is 10-1 UNDER off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall. Take the UNDER.
|
11-24-15 |
Missouri +7.5 v. Northwestern |
|
62-67 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Week on Missouri +7.5
The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season. They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters. They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again. They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs. That was before an ugly 42-66 loss to Kansas State yesterday as they shot just 30.9 percent from the floor. I believe that blowout loss has the Tigers catching a few too many points here against Northwestern, which lost 69-80 to UNC yesterday. Northwestern is now 3-1, but two of its wins were far from impressive with a 79-72 home win over Fairfield as 15-point favorites and an 83-80 home win over Columbia as 5.5-point favorites. The Wildcats are a tired team as they'll be playing their 4th game in 7 days. Missouri will only be playing its 2nd game in 7 days. That's the difference here as the Tigers will have a lot more in the tank. Take Missouri.
|
11-24-15 |
Pacers v. Wizards -2.5 |
|
123-106 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -2.5
The Key: The Washington Wizards come in playing well having won three straight games over Orlando, Milwaukee and Detroit by a combined 40 points. They have now had two days off in between games, and this will actually be just their 2nd game in 7 days. They'll be full of energy in this one to say the least. The Pacers are also playing well, but they are now overvalued here as only 2.5-point road underdogs in this game. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NBA Central division opponents. Take Washington.
|
11-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 |
Top |
48-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5
The Key: I really question the motivation of the Bowling Green Falcons right now. They already locked up their spot in the MAC Championship Game two weeks ago with a win over Western Michigan. They promptly fell flat on their faces last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo despite being 7-point favorites. They are in the exact same situation as last year where they clinched with two games left and lost their final two games before getting rolled by Northern Illinois in the Championship Game as well. In their season finale last year, the Falcons lost 24-41 as 10-point home favorites over Ball State. The Cardinals would like to end their season on a positive note with a win here, and it's also Senior Night, so they will be motivated. I have little doubt they'll stay within three touchdowns of Bowling Green in this one. They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this year. They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following two straight games where they gave up 37 or more points. Take Ball State.
|
11-23-15 |
Bills v. Patriots UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
60 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Bills/Patriots AFC East *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5
The Key: This UNDER fits a very profitable system dating back to 2003. It tells us to bet on all UNDERS with a total set of 44.5 or higher in division games after Week 11 or later. This system is 115-71 (61.8%) since 2003. By focusing in on late-season division rivalries, we are able to identify games in which two teams have already faced off. The level of familiarity leads to less scoring and better returns for under bettors. This system has been particularly profitable over the last 3 years, going 52-28 (67.4%). The Patriots are without two of their best weapons in Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, so don't expect to see the 40-32 shootout we saw in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 2. This is going to be a grind-it-out game where both teams lean heavily on their rushing attacks, especially the Bills, who want to shorten the game, which will allow them to keep it close. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 29-8 over the last 10 seasons. Buffalo is 7-0 UNDER vs. winning teams in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bills are 6-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 years. Take the UNDER.
|
11-23-15 |
76ers +8 v. Wolves |
|
95-100 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Philadelphia 76ers +8
The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to go 0-82. This 0-14 start is ugly, but with that start comes some betting value here in the very near future, and I believe there's a lot of it tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are improved this season, but they shouldn't be 8-point favorites against anyone. That's especially the case when you consider how poorly they have played at home. The Timberwolves are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in home games this year, getting outscored by 9.5 points per game in the process. The 76ers have gone a profitable 4-3 ATS on the road this year. The Timberwolves are now 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Minnesota is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Take Philadelphia.
|
11-23-15 |
Kansas State v. Missouri +5.5 |
|
66-42 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
6* CBE Hall of Fame Classic *CA$H COW* on Missouri +5.5
The Key: It was a clear rebuilding season last year for the Missouri Tigers as they went 9-23 in Kim Anderson's first season. They had to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now they have a lot more experience with four returning starters. They have been way undervalued in the early going and are here again. They won 83-74 over Wofford as 2.5-point favorites, beat Maryland-East Shore 73-55, and lost at Xavier 66-78 as 13.5-point dogs. That game against Xavier was six days ago so they've had plenty of time to prepare for Kansas State. The Wildcats lost their top three scorers from last year in Marcus Foster, Nino Williams and Thomas Gipson, who all averaged at least 11.3 points per game. They are 3-0 this season, but have taken advantage of an extremely soft schedule with three home games against Maryland-East Shore, Columbia and South Dakota. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Take Missouri.
|
11-22-15 |
Bengals v. Cardinals -4.5 |
|
31-34 |
Loss |
-102 |
36 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* Bengals/Cardinals Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Arizona -4.5
The Key: The Arizona Cardinals may very well be the best team in the NFL this season. They are outgaining teams by 105.0 yards per game, which is the best mark in the league. They have the #1 offense in the NFL at 421 yards per game, and they are #3 in total defense as well, giving up 316 yards per game. I like them here laying this short number against the Bengals, who are clearly overrated due to their 7-1-1 ATS record this season. The Bengals are playing on a short week after losing 6-10 at home to the Texans on Monday Night Football, which also puts them at a disadvantage. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after outgaining each of their last two opponents by 100 or more total yards. Take Arizona.
|
11-22-15 |
Redskins +7.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
16-44 |
Loss |
-113 |
29 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +7.5
The Key: The Panthers are 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS this season. They have made backers a lot of money, and as a result, they are clearly overvalued right now. They have a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the NFC, so they can afford to take their foot off the gas this week. The Washington Redskins have no such luxury. They are 4-5 on the season and can pull even with the New York Giants for the NFC East lead with a win this week. The Redskins are loaded with confidence right now after their 47-14 dismantling of the Saints last week. They racked up 526 total yards in the win, while holding the high-powered Saints to just 350 yards, outgaining them by 176. Washington is 39-23 ATS in its last 62 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Washington.
|
11-22-15 |
Raiders v. Lions +1 |
|
13-18 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Detroit Lions +1
The Key: The line before the season on this game was somewhere in the neighborhood of Detroit -7.5. I believe we are getting serious value here with the Lions as a home underdog to the Raiders this week. Detroit has opened just 2-7, and that record has it undervalued. But this team has played better than its record, and it finally got rewarded with an 18-16 upset win at Green Bay last week as double-digit underdogs. Look for the Lions to come into this game playing with a ton of confidence now. I'm still not sold on the Raiders because of their defense. They give up 26.8 points, 408.6 yards per game and 6.1 per play this season. The Lions still have an above-average offense that is fully capable of putting up a big number on this Oakland D. The Raiders have only been favored twice this season, and they lost both of those games to the Bears and Vikings. Plays on team (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Detroit.
|
11-21-15 |
Idaho +34 v. Auburn |
|
34-56 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Idaho +34
The Key: How can Auburn be trusted to lay 34 points with the season it is having right now? The Tigers are 5-5 and still not bowl eligible. They needed overtime to beat Jacksonville State as a 39-point favorite earlier this year and were outgained in that game by 37 yards. In fact, they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season. Idaho is better than Jacksonville State. It has been competitive this season as only one of its seven losses came by more than 27 points. That was a 9-59 loss at USC back in Week 2. Idaho does have a good offense that is averaging 29.2 points and 414.8 yards per game and put some points on the board to help with the cover. The Vandals have scored 27 or more points six times this year. Sophomore QB Matt Linehan is a stud, completing 63.8 percent of his passes while ranking third in the country in passing yards per game (274.6). Auburn is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons. The Tigers will be looking ahead to their Iron Bowl showdown with Alabama next week and won't be up for the Vandals this week. The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Idaho.
|
11-21-15 |
Louisville v. Pittsburgh -2 |
Top |
34-45 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2
The Key: The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-3 this season and having a great year. Their three losses were to Notre Dame, Iowa and Pittsburgh, who have a combined two losses on the season. Both Notre Dame and Iowa are playoff contenders. The Panthers weren't overmatched against any of those three teams, losing by 12 points or less in all three games with a 3-point loss at Iowa, a 7-point loss to UNC, and a 12-point loss to Notre Dame. Now it will be up against a mediocre 6-4 Louisville team that has narrow wins over Boston College (17-14), Wake Forest (20-19) and Virginia (38-31) in three of its last four games. I look for the Panthers to take care of business at home. They are coming off a 31-13 road win at Duke in what was one of their most complete performances of the season. That's key because the Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off a win by 10 points or more. Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville, winning four of the last five outright. Take Pittsburgh.
|
11-21-15 |
Florida Atlantic +31.5 v. Florida |
|
14-20 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAF Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida Atlantic +31
The Key: It's all about survive and advance right now for the Florida Gators, which is precisely what they've done the last two weeks in lackluster performances. They only beat Vanderbilt 9-7 two weeks ago at home as 20.5-point favorites, and then needed a late TD to put away South Carolina 24-14 on the road last week. They aren't going to be concerned with how much they beat Florida Atlantic by, instead they'll be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Florida State that will determine whether or not it is a legitimate playoff contender. The Gators lack the firepower to put up big points as they average just 28.1 points and 371 yards per game. Florida Atlantic has been much better than its 2-8 record shows. All 8 of its losses have come by 24 or fewer points, including seven by 18 or less. They have played some good teams too in Miami, Marshall, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Florida only has one win by more than 28 points this season, which was back in the opener against an awful New Mexico State team. The Owls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. FAU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. SEC opponents. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Florida Atlantic.
|
11-20-15 |
Cincinnati v. South Florida +2 |
Top |
27-65 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2
The Key: The South Florida Bulls have a realistic shot of winning the AAC East division. They are one game back of Temple, which plays Memphis on Saturday. The Bulls beat the Owls 44-23 at home last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them by 176 yards behind 230 rushing yards from Marlon Mack. That followed up a 22-17 road win at East Carolina in which they outgained the Pirates by 222 yards. South Florida has been tough to beat at home, going 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season, winning by an average of 21.4 PPG. The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming by 4 points over Miami Ohio as 21-point favorites. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this year. Take South Florida.
|
11-20-15 |
Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 207 |
|
93-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 207
The Key: The New York Knicks got a lot better defensively this season when they signed defensive anchor Robin Lopez in the offseason. They are playing great on the defensive end, holding eight of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points. But they haven't been a whole lot better offensively this year, scoring 99 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games. The UNDER is 7-2 in their last 9 games as a result. Their job defensively tonight got a whole lot easier when it was announced that Kevin Durant was going to miss this game as well as he continues to recover from injury. The Thunder just aren't as explosive offensively without him. These teams played in a couple low-scoring affairs last season. They combined for 192 and 183 points in their two meetings. I don't expect that a year later its' going to be any different, especially without Durant and with the way the Knicks are getting after it defensively. OKC is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|
11-19-15 |
Iowa -2 v. Marquette |
|
89-61 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Game of the Night on Iowa -2
The Key: Marquette is clearly in trouble this season. It lost its top scorer from last season in Matt Carlino (15.0 PPG), and three other players who played significant minutes. Only two starters returned for the Golden Eagles. They lost 80-83 at home to Belmont in their opener, and then only beat IUPUI 75-71 at home as 13.5-point favorites last time out. That's the same IUPUI team that lost by 24 at NC State last night. Iowa is a veteran bunch that returned four starters this season. It has handled its business with 76-59 and 103-68 home wins over Gardner Webb and Coppin State, respectively. I look for the Hawkeyes to go on the road and get a win here as a short favorite. Marquette is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or a pick 'em over the last 3 seasons, losing by 13.0 points per game. Take Iowa.
|
11-19-15 |
Titans v. Jaguars -3 |
Top |
13-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville -3
The Key: Jacksonville is 3-6 this season, but only one game back of first place in the AFC South. The Jaguars have managed three wins despite playing just three home games this season compared to six on the road. They are playing well right now, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. Their only loss was a 5-point road loss to the Jets in which they outgained them by 146 yards. Four turnovers are the only thing that prevented the Jags from winning that game. The Titans have lost five of their last six games and sit at just 2-7 on the season. Marcus Mariota is going to be without his top two receivers tonight in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Tennessee is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 vs. division opponents and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 vs. teams who are outscored by 6 or more points per game on the season. Take Jacksonville.
|
11-19-15 |
Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 195.5 |
|
100-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
6* Bucks/Cavaliers TNT *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5
The Key: These teams just played a few days ago on November 14 in a double-overtime thriller in which the Bucks won 108-105 at home. But this game was tied 88-88 at the end of regulation, which is 176 combined points, nearly 20 points below this 195.5-point total. These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after having just played, and I look for the defenses to be at an advantage because of it. The UNDER is 17-4 in Bucks last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER.
|
11-19-15 |
East Carolina v. Central Florida +14.5 |
|
44-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* ECU/UCF ESPN National TV Annihilator on Central Florida +14.5
The Key: Because they are 0-10, the UCF Knights are show great value today as two-touchdown underdogs to the ECU Pirates. The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-10 team. But the Knights are better than their record and played Tulsa very tough in their last game. ECU has really struggled of late with three straight losses while averaging just 14.7 points per game in them. This has become a nice rivalry, so the Knights will be motivated, especially since this game will be aired on ESPN. UCF has not lost by more than 14 points to ECU in any of the last 9 meetings, making for a 9-0 angle backing the Knights dating back to 2005. The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games, while the Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday showdowns. Take UCF.
|
11-18-15 |
Western Michigan +3 v. Northern Illinois |
|
19-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* WMU/NIU ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Western Michigan +3
The Key: Western Michigan wants revenge from a 21-31 home loss to Northern Illinois last year that kept it out of the MAC Championship Game. The Broncos led 21-0 but committed six turnovers to give the game away in the second half. They have the team to beat Northern Illinois this year and get over the hump. The Huskies are playing with their backup QB in Ryan Graham, which is a big disadvantage. Western Michigan is averaging 543 yards per game and giving up just 376 in conference play, outgaining teams by 167 yards per game. The Broncos are 5-1 against common opponents with Northern Illinois, which is 4-2 against those same teams. Western Michigan is a perfect 6-0 ATS in conference road games the last two seasons, and 9-2 ATS as an underdog the last two years. Take Western Michigan.
|
11-18-15 |
St. Louis +6 v. SIU-Edwardsville |
|
70-60 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
6* NCAAB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on Saint Louis -6
The Key: Saint Louis was in rebuilding mode last year with no returning starters, and it's no surprise they took a step back. But now the Billikens have 4 returning starters in 2015-16 and will be one of the most improved teams in the country. SIU-Edwardsville is in the same situation that Saint Louis was last year. The Panthers have zero returning starters this season. They only have one returning key reserve in C.J. Carr, who averaged 6.2 points per game last year. They are pretty much starting over this year. Saint Louis crushed Hartford 85-68 in its opener while shooting 52.8% from the floor and committing only 7 turnovers. Saint Louis beat SIU-Edwardsville 67-61 at home last year and 82-58 on the road in 2013. I expect a result somewhere in between those two performances. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home win by 10 points or more in the first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more consecutive ATS losses are 30-9 ATS since 1997. Take Saint Louis.
|
11-18-15 |
Mavs v. Celtics -4.5 |
Top |
106-102 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -4.5
The Key: The Boston Celtics are rolling right now. They have gone 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall. They are not only winning, they are dominating as all five wins have come by 13 points or more. That includes road wins over Houston and Oklahoma City, as well as home wins over Washington and Atlanta, so it's not like they are beating up on bad teams. The Mavericks are a tired bunch right now as this will be their 7th game in 11 days. Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. teams who win 60% or more of their road games. Take this 14-0 angle backing the Celtics straight to the bank. Take Boston.
|
11-17-15 |
Georgetown v. Maryland -7.5 |
|
71-75 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* Georgetown/Maryland ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Maryland -7.5
The Key: The Maryland Terrapins are the third-ranked team in the country this season. They returned two of their best players in Melo Trimble (16.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Jake Layman (12.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg). They added in Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, while also nabbing five-star recruit Diamond Stone. The Terrapins got off to a good start this season with an 80-56 win over Mount St. Mary's. Trimble (14) and Layman (16) led five players who scored in double figures as the Terps held Mount St. Mary's to 31.1% shooting and outrebounded them 44-20. Georgetown has just two starters back this year and is in serious trouble after losing 80-82 at home in double-overtime to Radford int he opener. The Hoyas were actually outrebounded 37-43 by Radford, yes Radford. Georgetown is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, losing by 11.5 points per game. Maryland is 42-23 ATS in its last 65 home games off a win by 15 points or more, winning by 21.5 points per game. Take Maryland.
|
11-17-15 |
Nuggets v. Pelicans -5.5 |
|
115-98 |
Loss |
-104 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The Key: At 1-9 on the season, the Pelicans are in desperate need of a win to right the ship. The good news is that Anthony Davis recently returned to the lineup in an 87-95 loss at New York last time out and scored 36 points, so he appears healthy. Look for Davis to lead the Pelicans to a blowout win tonight over the Denver Nuggets, who lost 81-105 in Phoenix last time out. The Nuggets' best player in Kenneth Faried had to sit out the second half of that game, and he's questionable to return tonight with a back injury. Denver is 1-12 ATS when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons, losing by 8.2 points per game in this spot. The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two years, losing by 10.8 points per game. Denver is 0-8 ATS after scoring 35 or fewer points in the first half last game over the last three seasons, losing by 11.3 points per game. The Pelicans are 24-8 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last two seasons. Take New Orleans.
|
11-17-15 |
Toledo +8 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
44-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 60 m |
Show
|
7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8
The Key: Bowling Green already clinched the MAC East title for the second consecutive season. It is now already penciled into the MAC Championship Game. Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan atop the MAC West with 5-1 records each. The Rockets still have some work to do, and motivation will clearly be on their side in this one, while we don't know what we'll get from Bowling Green. The Falcons were in the same situation last year having clinched the MAC East early, and they proceeded to lose each of their final three games of the season, including a 17-point loss to Ball State at home as 10-point favorites. Toledo has won five straight meetings with Bowling Green. The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Toledo.
|
11-16-15 |
San Diego State v. Utah UNDER 132 |
|
76-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
6* SDSU/Utah ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 132
The Key: Utah and San Diego State are two teams that make a living off their defense. The Aztecs finished second in Division 1 in scoring defense last season at 53.9 points per game and 3rd in fewer points per possession. They limited Illinois State to 30.8 percent shooting in their opener. Utah held its opponents to 41.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts last season behind the efforts of defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl. Both teams went over the total in their openers, which I think is why this total has been inflated. San Diego State beat Illinois State 71-60 while Utah beat Southern Utah 82-71 and allowed 50% shooting, including 10 of 19 from 3-point range. But look for the Utes to come back with a much stronger effort defensively in this one. This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. SDSU beat Utah 53-49 at home last year for 102 combined points despite the total being set at 130.5. In their previous meeting, SDSU beat Utah 64-50 for 114 combined points with a total of 127. SDSU is 40-22 UNDER in all games over the last three seasons. Utah is 16-6 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three years. Take the UNDER.
|
11-16-15 |
Texans +11 v. Bengals |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* Texans/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +11
The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals could not possible be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS this season, the NFL's only team without an ATS loss. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them this week. They are now a double-digit favorite for the second consecutive week, and you're not going to lose a lot of money betting double-digit NFL favorites over the long run. We'll go the other way and side with the Texans, who are just 3-5 on the season, but they're a better team than that record. The Texans are only a half-game back in the AFC South and can pull into a tie for first place with a win this week. The Texans are outgaining teams by 18.5 yards per game this season behind the 9th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense. Houston has won five of its last six meetings with Cincinnati. Betting against favorites of 10.5 or more points, in the second half of the season, who beat the spread by 35 or more combined points over their past five games are 27-8 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Houston.
|
11-16-15 |
Pacers +6 v. Bulls |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers +6
The Key: The grand plan of the Pacers to go smaller this season and utilize the talents of Paul George and Monte Ellis is coming to fruition. The Pacers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with their only loss coming to the beat team in the Eastern Conference in the Cleveland Cavaliers by a final of 97-101 on the road as 8-point underdogs. George is averaging 29.3 points and 9.3 boards while shooting 47.5 percent, including 19 of 40 from 3-point range, over his last six games. Indiana is 10-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons. The Pacers are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Take Indiana.
|
11-15-15 |
Raptors v. Kings +3 |
|
101-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3
The Key: After a 1-7 start, the Sacramento Kings had a team meeting and it has really brought this club together. They have won two straight behind a healthy return of DeMarcus Cousins and a more comfortable Rajon Rondo. Cousins scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half while Rondo has 23 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds in a win over the Nets on Friday. Cousins has now amassed 73 points in back-to-back wins over the Pistons and Nets. The Kings have averaged 107.5 points in games that Cousins has played this year, and only 97.5 in the four that he's missed. Sacramento is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 home meetings with Toronto and should not be an underdog here. Take Sacramento.
|
11-15-15 |
Lions +11 v. Packers |
|
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* NFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions +11
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Double-digit underdogs have gone 93-68 ATS since 2003 in division games. Teams that allowed at least 42 points int heir previous game are 116-81 ATS. The Lions are coming off their bye week and will be motivated for this division game against the Packers. They have only lost by more than 10 points at Green Bay in one of the last five road meetings. Take Detroit.
|
11-15-15 |
Browns +6.5 v. Steelers |
|
9-30 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* AFC Sunday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Landry Jones is back at quarterback in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger. The Browns also fit a system that is 97-53 ATS and focuses on teams who are coming off a blowout against "good" teams the previous game like the one the Browns suffered against the Bengals last Thursday. Cleveland has now had extra time to prepare for Pittsburgh as well after receiving a mini-bye week. Take Cleveland.
|
11-15-15 |
Jaguars +5.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
22-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
The Key: My database shows that road teams who lost their previous game have gone 714-625 ATS since 2003, but that record improves to 285-196 ATS when those road teams have also played at least two consecutive road games coming in. Teams off a loss are almost always undervalued, especially when they are playing their 3rd straight road game. Baltimore is just 2-6 with season-ending injuries to Steve Smith Sr. Terrell Suggs and Matt Elam. The Jaguars outgained the Jets by 146 yards on the road last week after beating the Bills in London. The Ravens haven't beaten anyone by more than 3 points this year, and six of their eight games were decided by 5 points or less. Take Jacksonville.
|
11-14-15 |
Utah v. Arizona +6 |
|
30-37 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona +6
The Key: Arizona needs one more win to get bowl eligible and would love to get it here against a highly-ranked Utah team. It doesn't want to have to bank on pulling the upset next week as road underdogs to Arizona State. The Wildcats are coming off one of their better performances of the season in a 30-38 road loss at USC as 19-point underdogs last week. Utah was fortunate to win at Washington last week as the Huskies committed four turnovers and gave the Utes a bunch of easy points. The Utes only gained 346 total yards in that game. Utah is only outgained teams by 17.6 yards per game on the season, so it is very fortunate to be 8-1 because it continues winning the turnover battle, which is luck more than anything. Arizona is outgaining teams by 47 yards per game this season behind an offense that is putting up 502.1 per contest. The Wildcats beat the Utes 42-10 as 5.5-point road underdogs last year while racking up 520 total yards of offense. Kyle Whittingham is 8-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Arizona. Rich Rodriquez is 6-0 ATS off two or more straight losses as the coach of Arizona, with the Wildcats coming back to win by 15.8 points per game in this situation. Take Arizona.
|
11-14-15 |
76ers v. Spurs UNDER 196 |
|
83-92 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Spurs UNDER 196
The Key: Philadelphia just lost 85-102 at Oklahoma City last night in a low-scoring affair that saw 187 combined points. I expect more of the same from them tonight against the Spurs. The last time they traveled to San Antonio last season, they lost 75-100 for 175 combined points. The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging just 92.7 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is at least decent with all of the big guys in the middle at their disposal, but they can't get anything going offensively. It's not going to get any easier tonight against a Spurs team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.3 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER off a road win where it scored 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 (76ers) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of less than 25% and playing a team with a winning record are 72-32 since 1996. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio. Take the UNDER.
|
11-14-15 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor -2 |
|
44-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -2
The Key: Baylor is 29-1 at home over the last five seasons. The Bears have won 20 straight at home by an average of 25 points per game with their 61-58 win over TCU last year the only game that was decided by less than a TD. That includes 13 straight Big 12 home wins as well. Baylor has beaten Oklahoma by 29 and 34 points the last two years while outgaining the Sooners by 222 and 225 yards, respectively. The Bears have averaged 42 PPG, 511 YPG and 6.2 YPP in their last four meetings with the Sooners. They have scored TDs on 21 of their 56 drives with nearly a quarter of their plays going for 10-plus yards. Jarrett Stidham is better than he's getting credit for here as he's thrown 9 touchdowns without an interception this season while completing 77% of his passes. The Bears are a ridiculous 26-7 ATS in their last 33 home games overall. Take Baylor.
|
11-14-15 |
Temple v. South Florida +3 |
Top |
23-44 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3
The Key: South Florida is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss to Memphis coming by a final of 24-17. USF has won its other three games at Raymond James Stadium by a combined 134-41 score. "I know one thing about Ray Jay, when it's rocking it's hard for any opponent to come in here and play," coach Willie Taggart told the Bulls' official website. "I've been on the other side of that coming in here and playing when that place is rocking. That's how we need it Saturday night." A win would have the Bulls becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so expect a great crowd Saturday night. Temple is very beatable and is overvalued as the favorite here due to going 5-1 ATS in its last six games. It needed some late-game magic to beat both East Carolina and SMU on the road recently, which are two teams that aren't as good as this South Florida outfit. USF also beat ECU on the road and SMU by 24 at home. The Bulls have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at Navy 17-29 in a game that was very close until the 4th quarter. USF is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. Take South Florida.
|
11-14-15 |
Kansas +45.5 v. TCU |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +45.5
The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are going to suffer a hangover Saturday from their 29-49 loss at Oklahoma State that likely cost it a shot to play in the four-team playoff. With Oklahoma and Baylor on deck, this is a sandwich game that the Horned Frogs aren't going to show up for. That's why they won't be able to put away Kansas by this ridiculous 45.5-point margin. Star WR Josh Doctson was knocked out of the Oklahoma State game with a wrist injury and the Horned Frogs never recovered. While he may return Saturday, he's not going to be 100% and won't be the factor he usually is, making this TCU offense less explosive. TCU has struggled to beat Kansas State the last three years. It is 0-3 ATS, only winning 20-6 as 18.5-point road favorites in 2012, 27-17 as 24-point home favorites in 2013, and 34-30 as 28-point road favorites last year. The Jayhawks were only outgained 418-463 by the Horned Frogs last season. Take Kansas.
|
11-14-15 |
Ohio State -16.5 v. Illinois |
|
28-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* Ohio State/Illinois *EARLY RISER* on Ohio State -16.5
The Key: J.T. Barrett returns from his 1-game suspension and will be eager to lead the Buckeyes to a blowout win over Illinois Saturday. He missed last game against Minnesota, and Ohio State struggled offensively in a 28-14 win with Cardale Jones. Barrett had started his first game of the season the week before, leading the Buckeyes to a 49-7 win at Rutgers. Barrett threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He is the real deal, and this offense goes as he goes. Illinois has been a punching bag for Ohio State in recent years and I look for that to continue. The Buckeyes have won the least three meetings by 41, 25 and 30 points, or by an average of 32.0 points per game. The Buckeyes are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. The Fighting Illini are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. Take Ohio State.
|
11-13-15 |
USC v. Colorado OVER 59 |
|
27-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* USC/Colorado Pac-12 *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 59
The Key: This one is pretty easy folks as this game is going to be a shootout between Colorado and USC. They combined for 86 points last year in a 56-28 USC victory in which Cody Kessler threw a school-record 7 touchdown passes. That followed up a 76-point effort in 2013 when USC won 47-29 at Colorado. USC has combined for 66 or more points with 3 of its last 4 opponents. Colorado has combined for 65 or more points in 4 of its last 6 games with its opposition. Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games with 74 points per game on average in this spot. Take the OVER.
|
11-13-15 |
Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
90-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 203.5
The Key: When looking at the recent history between the Cavs and Knicks, it's easy to see that there is some serious value with the UNDER 203.5 tonight. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 182, 184, 177 and 185 points, which comes out to an average of 182 points per game. That's 21.5 points less than this 203.5-point total. These teams just played on November 4 with 182 combined points. This total just makes no sense to me with how high it has been set, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER. Take the UNDER.
|
11-12-15 |
Bills v. Jets -1.5 |
Top |
22-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Bills/Jets NFL Thursday *HEAVY HITTER* on New York -1.5
The Key: This line is indicating that the Bills are actually the better team. Once again, the Jets aren't getting enough credit for how good they really are as only 1.5-point favorites here. They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense and 11th in total offense, outgaining teams by 42.6 yards per game. The Bills are getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game this year. This line is an overreaction from Buffalo's blowout win over Miami last week in which the Bills were in a good spot because they returned from their bye. It's also an overreaction from losses in two of the last three games from the Jets, but two of those games on the road to the Pats and Raiders, and they rebounded with a home win over the Jaguars last week. New York is now 3-1 at home this year and should be 4-0 because it outgained Philadelphia by nearly 100 yards but committed 4 turnovers in a 17-24 loss. Buffalo is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 games following a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take New York.
|
11-12-15 |
Warriors v. Wolves +9.5 |
|
129-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* Warriors/Timberwolves TNT *CA$H COW* on Minnesota +9.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. I always look to fade teams in this spot, and this is a prime opportunity to do so. The Warriors are 9-0 and the betting public cannot get enough of them right now. Oddsmakers are forced to jack up their lines game in and game out, and it's going to be profitable to fade them sooner rather than later. This looks like the prime opportunity to do so as the Warriors would have to go on the road and win by double-digits in this spot to beat us. Minnesota is 4-3 this season with 4 wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Bulls and Hawks all on the road, and three of those coming by 9 points or more. The Timberwolves will be motivated for their first home win here. Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio both didn't play against Charlotte on Tuesday, but both are coming back for this game. The Warriors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Minnesota.
|
11-12-15 |
UL-Lafayette +2 v. South Alabama |
|
25-32 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
6* UL-Lafayette/South Alabama Sun Belt Game of the Week on UL-Lafayette +2
The Key: Despite sharing identical 4-4 records, there's no question in my mind that UL-Lafayette is by far the superior team in this matchup with South Alabama. The Rajin' Cajuns are outgaining teams by 2 yards per game this season, while the Jaguars are getting outgained by 30 yards per game. Lafayette is also only getting outscored by 1.3 points per game, while South Alabama is getting outscored by 9.9 points per game. This is a great matchup for the Rajin' Cajuns. They are a run-first team that averages 211 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry. They'll be up against a South Alabama defense that gives up 218 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. Their ability to run the football at will is going to prove to be the difference in this one. South Alabama is 1-11 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 in its last 12 tries. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win after the first month of the season are 58-19 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Lafayette.
|
11-11-15 |
Bucks v. Nuggets -3 |
|
102-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -3
The Key: The Denver Nuggets will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight, so they will be ready to go when they welcome the Milwaukee Bucks. The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after their 83-99 loss at home to Boston yesterday. Making matters worse for the Bucks is that three of their best players are expected to miss this game in O.J. Mayo, Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams. The thick air in Denver is going to play a big role here. The Bucks haven't had much luck in Denver anyways, going 8-36 in 44 meetings all-time. They have dropped five straight trips to Denver as well. Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against the Western Conference. Take Denver.
|
11-11-15 |
Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 |
|
41-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* Bowling Green/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +3
The Key: Western Michigan is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming 24-37 to Michigan State. It is outscoring teams by an average of 18.0 points per game at home this year. The Broncos will pick up another win as home underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons tonight. Western Michigan has the better defense in this one, and its balance offensively with 208 rushing yards per game and 278 passing is a nice asset to have. The Broncos are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Falcons, including last year's 26-14 road win. Western Michigan is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games as an underdog. Take Western Michigan.
|
11-11-15 |
Pacers v. Celtics -3.5 |
Top |
102-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -3.5
The Key: The Boston Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They had a tremendous preseason and that has carried over into the regular season. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over quality opponents in Washington (118-98) and Milwaukee (99-83). Yes, they did play last night against the Bucks, but they had three days off before that game, so that makes this second of a back-to-back a non-factor. Plus, the Celtics will bring plenty of energy into this one anyways as they want revenge from their 98-100 road loss to Indiana a week ago today. The Pacers are overvalued heading into this game because they have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall. Boston was a 2-point road favorite at Indiana in the first meeting, and now it is only a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch. Based on that 2-point spread, the Celtics should be roughly 8-point home favorites here when you factor in home-court advantage. I believe were are getting them at a discounted price as a result. Boston is 14-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons. This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is why the Celtics have been so profitable to back in these no rest situations. Take Boston.
|
11-10-15 |
Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 |
Top |
28-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5
The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas are a sensational 8-1 against the spread in 2015. The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team, and that's the case here as 4.5-point home underdogs. They have lost four games this year, but they covered the spread in all four and arguably should have won three of them. They outgained Michigan State, Western Michigan and Syracuse. Oklahoma State, which is 9-0, only outgained them by 77 yards in an 11-point road win. Central Michigan is rested having last played on October 31. Toledo is in a tough spot here after playing on November 3 last Tuesday in a 32-27 home loss to Northern Illinois. That loss is likely going to keep the Rockets out of the MAC Championship Game again, and these players know it. It's going to be hard to bounce back from that loss as a result. Central Michigan has won its last three home games all by 10 points or more, including a 29-19 victory over that same Northern Illinois team. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take Central Michigan.
|
11-10-15 |
Lakers +11 v. Heat |
|
88-101 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +11
The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers have been better than their 1-5 record would indicate. They just haven't been able to close games late because they have been in almost every game they've played. Four of their five losses have come by 11 points or less, and if they lose this game Tuesday, it's likely to be by 11 or less once again. The Miami Heat are coming off a huge 96-76 home win over Toronto last time out that has them overvalued. But the Heat haven't won two straight games yet this season as they've alternated wins and losses. The Lakers were awful last year and not as good as they are this year, yet they only lost to the Heat by 6 and 3 points. In fact, each of the last 9 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less, which is even more impressive when you consider Lebron James played the majority of those games for the Heat. That's a 9-0 angle when you figure in this 11-point spread tonight. Take Los Angeles.
|