06-15-12 |
Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague Blowout Game of the Year on Rangers -1.5 -135 The Key: Houston is 0-3 in Lyles' 3 career starts versus the Rangers and has lost those games by an average of 3.3 runs. The Astros are also 0-4 in his road starts this season, losing them by 3.0 runs on average. Texas is 5-0 in Darvish's home starts with a 4.8-run average margin of victory in those games. These 3 trends form an 11-0 angle that carries an average winning margin of 3.7 runs. With the way Houston has struggled on the road (18-53 in its last 71 road games) and with the way it has struggled against the Rangers (5-16 in the last 21 meetings), I love our chances here. Bet the Rangers on the run line.
|
06-14-12 |
Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 |
Top |
100-96 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5.5 The Key: Going back to last season, the Heat are now 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 NBA Finals contests. They are also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. In addition, OKC is 9-0 at home in these playoffs with those wins coming by an average of 10.7 points. Miami got good production from its role players in Game 1, but it still wasn't enough. The Thunder came back from 13 down despite getting much of anything from spark plug James Harden. I like Harden to be a major factor tonight and for the Thunder to go up 2-0. Lay the points.
|
06-14-12 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Minnesota Twins -137 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-137 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Twins -137 The Key: Expect the Phillies, who are just 4-11 in their last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter, to struggled against the southpaw Diamond tonight. The Twins are 6-1 in Diamond's last 7 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Plus, the Twins are 43-16 in their last 59 interleague home games. The Phillies are 2-9 in their last 11 overall and struggling Joe Blanton is 0-3 in his last 3 starts in Minnesota.
|
06-13-12 |
Los Angeles Angels -140 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -140 The Key: The Angels have the advantage on the mound with CJ Wilson. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite. The Dodgers are 0-3 in Eovaldi's starts this season. Also, the Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 road games, 40-17 in their last 57 interleague road games and 10-4 in their last 14 interleague games as a favorite. The Dodgers are 8-25 in their last 33 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter and 14-46 in their last 60 interleague games as an underdog. Lastly, the Angels are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and 7-2 in the last 9 road meetings.
|
06-12-12 |
Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5 |
Top |
94-105 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5 The Key: When the Heat have been deemed an underdog by the books it has been for good reason as they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Thunder, on the other hand, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. The Thunder are the more rested team, and they have the advantage at home where they haven't lost in these playoffs.
|
06-12-12 |
Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 |
Top |
1-7 |
Win
|
130 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -1.5 +130 The Key: The Reds are showing a lot of value at home on the run line considering the advantage they have on the mound with Cueto. The Reds have won 8 of Cueto's last 9 home starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.5 runs. Plus, they are 4-0 all-time in his starts against the Indians with those wins coming by an average of 2.25 runs. He has a low 2.49 ERA in those 4 lifetime starts versus Cleveland. The Tribe's Gomez has been lit up for at least 5 earned in each of his last 3 starts. Take Cincy on the run line.
|
06-11-12 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
113 |
13 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague Total of the Year on Angels/Dodgers Under 7 Runs The Key: With both of these teams finishing over the total in back-to-back games while combining with their opponents to score double-digit runs in each of those contests, odds makers are begging for action on the over with this line. While the large majority of the betting public is obliging the books, we won't. The Dodgers' Capuano is carrying an ERA of just 1.36 through 5 home starts this season. The Angels' Richard has held the opposition to a total of 2 earned runs in his last 3 starts. The Angels gave up 8 runs in Colorado yesterday but are a perfect 7-0 this season after allowing 8 runs or more in their previous game. We have only seen an average of 6.3 runs scored in this situation. Also, these two have played to the Under in 4 of the last 5 meetings. We've seen just 7 total runs scored or fewer in 4 of those matchups. Take the Under.
|
06-10-12 |
Kansas City Royals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -126 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -126 The Key: The Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in A.J. Burnett's home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.02. The Pirates are 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. Kansas City's Bruce Chen is 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.20 in 5 career starts versus the Pirates. Plus, the Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Look for Pittsburgh to pull off the sweep.
|
06-09-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -8 |
Top |
88-101 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8 The Key: Miami has only lost 7 home games all season and thus far it is an unbeaten 6-0 in its next home game following a home defeat, winning those games by a whopping 20.7 points on average. I fully expect this trend to continue tonight. The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. LeBron James proved he is the best in the world with his Game 6 performance. Look for him to take over Game 7 as well. Lay the points.
|
06-09-12 |
Los Angeles Dodgers -133 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -133 The Key: Saturday is the day to back LA. The Dodgers are 9-0 in Saturday games this season, winning them by an average score of 5.1 to 1.9. They should have little trouble building on this impressive trend with ace Clayton Kershaw toeing the rubber. The Dodgers are 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-1 in his last 6 road starts overall. Take the Dodgers.
|
06-08-12 |
Los Angeles Angels -137 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -137 The Key: The Angels are rounding into form, and I believe they'll flex their muscles against a Colorado club that is overmatched. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The Halos have won 4 of their last 5 versus the Rockies and 5 of their last 6 in Colorado. In addition to these trends, LAA has the definite edge on the mound with CJ Wilson (2.54 ERA). Colorado's Alex White is carrying a 5.60 ERA. Bet the Halos.
|
06-07-12 |
Miami Heat -127 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
98-79 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -127 The Key: The Heat just as easily could be ahead in this series had the ball bounced their way a couple more times. We saw the energy San Antonio came out with when facing elimination last night, and it would have covered the spread had a couple plays went its way down the stretch. The Heat will come out with similar energy here, and I expect them to have enough to hold off any late Boston rally. Chris Bosh will be a much bigger part of this game, and LeBron James will show why he is the best player on the planet. Road favorites (MIAMI) out for revenge for a straight up loss as a favorite that are off an upset loss as a home favorite are 86-49 ATS since 1996. These teams have won in this situation by an average of 4.7 points. Also, the Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.
|
06-07-12 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -150 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-150 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -150 The Key: Expect the Yankees, who have won 10 of their last 13, to keep right on rolling versus a Rays club that has dropped 6 of 8. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. They are also 22-5 in Sabathia's last 27 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take New York.
|
06-06-12 |
Seattle: H Noesi v. LA Anaheim: J Williams -149 |
|
8-6 |
Loss |
-149 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Bailout on Angels -149 The Key: Simply playing on LA starter Williams here. The Angels are 8-0 in Williams' last 8 home starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Also, he is 3-0 all-time with an ERA of 3.43 versus the Mariners.
|
06-06-12 |
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
99-107 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* Western Conference Finals Game of the Year on Spurs +4.5 The Key: The Spurs are too good and too experienced to drop 4 in a row to the Thunder. The last 2 games have been close, but I expect San Antonio to take its play to another level as it stares elimination in the face. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games the last 2 seasons when out to avenge a loss to an opponent as a home favorite. The Spurs have won by an average of 6.5 points in this situation. Take the Spurs and the points!
|
06-06-12 |
Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
Top |
0-8 |
Win
|
120 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Month on Brewers -1.5 +120 The Key: Milwaukee is an unbelievable 21-0 the last 2 seasons in Greinke's starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. It has won these by an average of 3.0 runs. The Cubs are 0-4 in Maholm's last 4 starts. Milwaukee has struck out too much this season but Maholm is 0-10 on the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. He has lost to these teams by an average of 2.8 runs. Plus, the Cubs are 0-9 in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The Cubs have lost by an average of 2.0 runs in these games. Take Milwaukee on the run line!
|
06-05-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -7.5 |
Top |
94-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -7.5 The Key: With or without Bosh, the Heat are the play on their home floor this evening. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 playoff games as a favorite. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Lastly, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Miami is 35-6 at home this season. Figuring in the 6 losing margins, it is still defeating its foes by 11.5 points at home this season. Take Miami.
|
06-05-12 |
Tampa Bay: J Shields v. New York (A): A Pettitte -124 |
Top |
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* AL East Game of the Week on Yankees -124 The Key: The Yankees are showing excellent value at home at this price. They have had a day off to get ready for this series and that day figures to serve them well as they are 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day. They'll also welcome Tampa's Shields' to the mound as the Rays are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. the Yankees. The Yanks are 4-0 in Pettitte's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Expect New York to continue its home success versus Shields here.
|
06-04-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -120 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Diamondbacks -120 The Key: NL home teams (ARIZONA) with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season that are up against an opponent with a cold starting pitcher - WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts - are 74-28 the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 this season. Plus, the Rockies are 4-11 in their last 15 road games and 9-24 in their last 33 meetings in Arizona. And, Saunders has had a great deal of success versus Colorado. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Rockies.
|
06-04-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
108-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5 The Key: After tying the series with a pair of impressive home wins, the Thunder head to San Antonio with the momentum and a ton of confidence. The Spurs have been sensational at home, but my research indicates they are being overvalued. They are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In fact, the Thunder are an impressive 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Thunder and the points as they have an excellent opportunity to steal one in San Antonio tonight.
|
06-03-12 |
Miami Heat -1.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
91-93 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat -1.5 The Key: Despite a lackluster defensive effort in Game 3, poor shooting from the foul line (50%) and a subpar performance from Dwayne Wade, the Heat only lost by 10 points. I'm extremely confident that all of the aforementioned will be greatly improved tonight as the Heat take complete control of the series. Miami allowed Boston to shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind that it hadn't allowed any team to shoot that high in these playoffs. It only made 10 of 20 free throws, which was its fewest makes and worst percentage in this series. Wade had 18 points in Game 3 but only scored 2 in the paint and didn't get to the foul line. Wade had racked up 12 straight 20-point playoff games before Game 3. Miami, the younger team, should still be the fresher team. It should also be noted that the Heat haven't lost more than one road game in each of their first two series'. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of fewer than 5.0 points. Take the Heat.
|
06-03-12 |
St Louis: Westbrook -106 v. New York (N): J Niese |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 15 m |
Show
|
7* Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month on Cardinals -106 The Key: After dropping the first two games of this series, expect the Cards to be very hungry and focused when they take the field this evening. The Cardinals are 15-7 in their last 22 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and I expect their success against lefties to continue as they are batting .276 and scoring 5.4 runs/game against lefty starters this season. NYs Niese hasn't been sharp lately, and the Mets are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis' Westbrook has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.81 ERA, and the Cardinals are 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite. Take St. Louis.
|
06-02-12 |
San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +3.5 The Key: After 20 consecutive wins the Spurs not only lost, they were crushed by 20 points. Recent history tells us, however, they won't go down again tonight. Consider that the Spurs are an undefeated 8-0 ATS following a loss of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. They have won these games by an average of 13.0 points. Take San Antonio in this bounce back spot.
|
06-02-12 |
Chicago Cubs v. San Francisco Giants -159 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -159 The Key: The Cubs are 0-4 in Garza's last 4 starts, 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. The Giants are 5-0 in Cain's last 5 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in the 2nd game of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Cubs. Take the Giants.
|
06-01-12 |
Chicago Cubs v. SF GIANTS -162 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -162 The Key: The Giants are definitely worth the price tonight with Bumgarner on the bump. They are 4-0 in their last 4 series openers, 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 8-0 in his last 8 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Plus, the Cubs are 0-8 in their last 8 games as an underdog. We'll take the Giants.
|
06-01-12 |
Miami Heat +2 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
91-101 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +2 The Key: After such an emotionally and physically draining loss, the old, banged-up Celtics won't have enough left in the tank tonight. Even Rondo has to be gassed after playing 53 minutes in Game 2. The Celtics ended up covering the number in that game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. All the pressure is on Boston tonight. Miami will be able to play much looser with a 2-game cushion. Take the Heat.
|
05-31-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 |
Top |
82-102 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4 The Key: The Thunder return home after losing the first two games of the series, and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation. Desperate teams are the most dangerous, and I expect this talented Thunder squad to be very dangerous tonight. The Thunder are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points while the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points. The Thunder have won all 5 of their home games this postseason with 2 of their last 3 home wins coming by 29 and 16 points. We'll take the Thunder.
|
05-31-12 |
Houston Astros -101 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
5-11 |
Loss |
-101 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Astros -101 The Key: The Astros get the call as they have the edge on the mound with Norris (5-1, 3.34 ERA). The Astros have lost 5 in a row, but they are 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. They are also 6-0 since the beginning of last season when he gets the ball following 4 or more consecutive team losses. It also can't go unmentioned that Houston is 7-0 in his Thursday starts since the beginning of last season. The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 Thursday games. Take the Astros as Norris brings another losing streak to an end.
|
05-30-12 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. Los Angeles Dodgers -159 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-159 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -159 The Key: I don't make a habit of laying this much juice but feel the Dodgers are well worth the price here with ace Clayton Kershaw on the rubber. The Dodgers are 14-1 in Kershaw's last 15 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Kershaw has a very low 0.903 WHIP, which is significant because the Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Plus, the bullpen has been performing at a high level. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games. It has won by an average score of 6.9 to 3.5 in these spots. Also, the Brewers 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take LA.
|
05-30-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -8 |
Top |
111-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8 The Key: The Heat are playing with a ton of confidence as they have found their rhythm. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with a 16.5-point average margin of victory in those contests. The Heat are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Celtics are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Boston looks very tired at this stage of the playoffs. And with Avery Bradley out for the season and Ray Allen badly hobbled, the C's are really lacking on both ends of the floor at the off-guard position. Lay the number.
|
05-29-12 |
Arizona: J Saunders v. San Francisco: Vogelsong -123 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -123 The Key: The Giants get the call at home with Vogelsong on the rubber. They are 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts when he pitches on regular rest (4 days), 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League West. Also, Arizona's Saunder's is 0-4 (1-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.52 in 5 starts versus the Giants. We'll take San Francisco.
|
05-29-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
111-120 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +4.5 The Key: We cashed in with the Thunder +5.5 in Game 1, and I'll stick with them here as plays against home favorites when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%), are 25-6 ATS since 1996. The "play against" side has won by just 1.4 points on average in these games. Also, this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Thunder haven't lost consecutive games since early April, and I don't expect them to start now.
|
05-28-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -8 |
Top |
79-93 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -8 The Key: I'm not hesitating to lay the points with the Heat in Game 1 as home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Miami will not be overlooking a Boston squad that has defeated it 3 straight times. Plus, the Heat have the big edge in terms of freshness as they have had 3 days of rest and the Celtics have had just one.
|
05-28-12 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays -138 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -138 The Key: The Orioles have really struggled in Toronto where they are just 13-41 in the last 54 meetings. Expect these struggles to continue with Hunter on the hill. He is 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA in three starts at Rogers Centre. Bet the Blue Jays.
|
05-27-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
98-101 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5.5 The Key: The Spurs are getting a little too much respect in Game 1 of this series against a Thunder squad that is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 playoff games as an underdog. In addition, the Thunder are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Spurs haven't really been tested at all this postseason, which won't do them any favors as they face their stiffest test in a long time. Take the points.
|
05-27-12 |
Houston Astros v. Los Angeles Dodgers -149 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -149 The Key: The Dodgers get the call again today as I expect them to continue their dominance at home. Houston's Happ is 0-3 on the money line in 3 career starts versus the Dodgers. LA isn't a team putting up big power numbers, but Happ is 0-10 on the money line the last 3 seasons in road games vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. The Astros are 0-8 in Happ's last 8 starts vs. the National League West, 0-6 in his last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 Sunday starts. The Dodgers are 10-0 vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season and 13-0 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. They are also 4-0 in Capuano's last 4 home starts. Bet the Dodgers behind this massive angle.
|
05-26-12 |
Houston: B Norris v. Los Angeles: Billingsly -128 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -128 The Key: The Dodgers are showing value at home at this price considering they are 19-5 at home this season. They lost Friday but are 15-5 in their last 20 games following a loss. They are also 23-6 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 45-16 in their last 61 games as a favorite and 5-1 in Billingsley's last 6 home starts. The Astros are 15-44 in their last 59 road games. Take LA.
|
05-26-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -5.5 |
Top |
75-85 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics -5.5 The Key: Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly 2 months. Prior to its Game 6 defeat, it had lost 8 games dating back to April 5. It is a perfect 8-0 following those losses with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points in those games. Expect this bounce back trend to continue. The fact the Celtics have had 2 days' rest in between Game 6 and 7 is also key. The C's had 2 day's rest following their Game 4 loss and pounded the 76ers 101-85 in Game 5. We'll take the more proven side at home against the inexperienced 76ers.
|
05-25-12 |
San Francisco Giants v. Miami Marlins -139 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 0 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -139 The Key: Lincecum has not looked like an ace this season while Johnson is starting to. The Giants are 0-4 in Lincecum's last 4 starts, during which he has allowed 15 runs in 21 innings. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 4-0 in Johnson's last 4 starts. He has posted a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP over his last 3. Plus, Lincecum has a 8.15 ERA in 4 road starts. Take the Marlins.
|
05-24-12 |
Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 |
Top |
105-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +3.5 The Key: The Heat can't be trusted laying points on the road. After all, they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points. The Heat's physical play may have won Game 5, but it will cost them tonight as key frontline player Udonis Haslem will miss this contest (suspended for a flagrant foul). With Bosh already out, Miami will get nothing on the interior in terms of scoring. Plus, it will also get crushed on the boards by the bigger Pacers. Look for Indiana to bounce back strong here.
|
05-24-12 |
San Francisco Giants +148 v. Miami Marlins |
|
14-7 |
Win
|
148 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Dog of the Day on Giants +148 The Key: The Giants are being way undervalued here with Vogelsong on the hill considering they are 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 5-0 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are 0-4 in Sanchez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 10-25 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Lastly, the Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Miami. The Giants are showing some nice value at this price.
|
05-23-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers -124 |
Top |
75-82 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers -124 The Key: Neither team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. The 76ers have won the rebounding battle in 3 of the last 4 games in this series and their dominance on the glass will be the difference tonight. Philly is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. The 76ers have won by an average score of 100.4 to 82.9 in this situation. Boston rolled last game but it benefited from 2 days' rest. The aging Celtics won't have the same hop in their step playing 1 days' rest here. The Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days' rest. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and Celtics are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
|
05-23-12 |
Detroit: D Fister -116 v. Cleveland: Mcallister |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-116 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -116 The Key: Look for the Tigers to bounce back strong behind Fister. They are 10-3 in his last 13 starts, 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts when pitching on 5 days' rest. Fister is also a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Cleveland, allowing only 2 earned runs in 23 innings while striking out 29 and walking just two. The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Indians.
|
05-22-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -6.5 |
Top |
83-115 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -6.5 The Key: Miami's Game 2 loss was just its 6th home defeat of the entire season. Recent history tells us the Heat don't like losing at home. In fact, Miami is a perfect 5-0 this season in home games following a home loss, which means they haven't lost consecutive home games all year. It is certainly worth mentioning that those 5 wins have come by 35, 7, 23, 23 and 9 points. We saw the way Indiana rode the momentum from its Game 2 road win to a big victory at home in Game 3. I expect a similar outcome in the Heat's favor this time around.
|
05-22-12 |
Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins -126 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -126 The Key: The Rockies are struggling to say the least. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games, 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the National League East and 0-9 in their last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado is also 0-6 in Nicasio's last 6 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. Plus, the Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the National League West. Our 38-0 angle listed above is further bolstered by the fact the Marlins are 5-1 in Nolasco's last 6 starts vs. the Rockies and 5-1 in their last 6 home meetings versus Colorado.
|
05-21-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
90-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +8 The Key: The Thunder find themselves in a letdown spot here as they are 9-22 ATS all-time under coach Brooks following a close win by 3 points or less, including just 4-14 ATS if that close win came on the road. They have lost by an average score of 103.6 to 98.8 in this 18-game situation. Kobe Bryant does not want to wait until next year to make a run at his sixth ring. He likely will, but I expect him to do everything in his power to give the Thunder a game tonight. The Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and the Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take the points.
|
05-21-12 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -143 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-143 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -143 The Key: Besides enjoying a nice advantage on the mound with Hellickson, Tampa Bay finds itself in an extremely profitable wagering situation tonight. Favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) that average 4.5 or less runs per game and are matched up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower, after 5 straight games of tallying less than 10 hits, are 36-7 since 1997. This system is a near-perfect 14-1 the last 3 seasons. The Blue Jays are 9-29 in their last 38 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays.
|
05-20-12 |
Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -148 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-148 |
6 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Giants -148 The Key: The Athletics are 0-11 in the last 11 meetings between these two in San Francisco. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 interleague starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs. the Athletics. The Athletics are 1-4 in Colon's last 5 starts. Take the Giants.
|
05-20-12 |
Miami Heat -125 v. Indiana Pacers |
Top |
101-93 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs Second Round Game of the Year on Heat -125 The Key: LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are 2 of the top 10 players in the world and neither (especially Wade) played like it in Game 3. I expect strong efforts from both players as they even the series Sunday afternoon. History is in our favor as plays against any good team (Indiana) that outscores its opponents by 3+ points/game on the season that is matched up against an opponent that has been held to 75 points or less in 2 straight games are 24-5 ATS since 1996 and a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.
|
05-19-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +1 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
|
103-100 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Bailout on Thunder +1 The Key: A more youthful Thunder squad has the advantage playing without a days' rest. The Lakers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Lakers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog, and I expect this trend to continue.
|
05-19-12 |
Chicago White Sox v. Chicago Cubs -135 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-135 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Cubs -135 The Key: The Cubs have the edge this evening with Dempster, who has a 1.74 ERA on the season. The White Sox Danks', meanwhile, checks in with a bloated 6.46 ERA. The Cubs are 18-7 in Dempster's last 25 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Also, Dempster's clubs are 50-26 in his last 76 home starts in the first half of the season since 1997.
|
05-19-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 |
Top |
96-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +5.5 The Key: I'm confident we'll see the Clippers' best effort of the series this afternoon. This team, which played the Spurs to a 3-point game in the season's only meeting in L.A., cannot be taken lightly in the home dog role. After all, they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Clipps are also 14-3 ATS in home games versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. L.A. has actually won by an average score of 96.2 to 94.9 in this situation.
|
05-18-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 174 |
Top |
83-92 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Total of the Year on Celtics/76ers Under 174 The Key: Plays Under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record - are 69-33 since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 174.9 but have only seen average of 169.6 total points scored in this situation. I'm expecting the lowest scoring game of the series tonight as both teams clamp down defensively. Take the Under and best of luck.
|
05-18-12 |
Boston Red Sox v. Philadelphia Phillies -140 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Phillies -140 The Key: The Phillies finally have it going. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games winning those games by an average of 2.8 runs. Hamels has had it going all year. The Phillies are 6-0 in Hamels' last 6 starts and have won those games by an average of 3.8 runs. The Red Sox are a poor 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog. Take Philly.
|
05-17-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers +11 v. San Antonio Spurs |
Top |
88-105 |
Loss |
-104 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +11 The Key: Look for the Clippers to bounce back strong to give the Spurs a game tonight. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent this season. They have actually won by an average score of 96.1 to 89.3 in this situation.
|
05-17-12 |
Milwaukee: S Marcum -133 v. Houston: J Happ |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-133 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -133 The Key: The Astros have been pure fade material with Happ on the hill. Fading Houston is Happ's last 40 starts has produced a 30-10 record. Also, the Brewers are 7-2 in Marcum's last 9 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Brewers are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings with the Astros and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
|
05-16-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder |
Top |
75-77 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +8 The Key: Expect a letdown from the Thunder following such a dominant performance in Game 1. They are 0-7 ATS following a victory by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average score of 112.1 to 108.4 so the Lakers are certainly showing value at this number. Take the points.
|
05-16-12 |
Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -137 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -137 The Key: The Rays have been a handful at home where they are 37-14 in their last 51, including 13-3 this season. They are 10-3 in Hellickson's last 13 home starts and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Sox are just 9-24 in their last 33 vs. the AL East and 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog. They are also 4-9 in the last 13 meetings with Tampa Bay. Take the Rays.
|
05-15-12 |
Arizona: W Miley v. Los Angeles: Billingsly -125 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* NL West Game of the Year on Dodgers -125 The Key: The Dodgers are 10-0 in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season, 10-0 in home games after 3 or more consecutive home games this season and 11-0 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-0 in Billingsley's last 4 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take LA behind this massive 53-0 angle.
|
05-15-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -11.5 |
Top |
92-108 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -11.5 The Key: The Spurs have been covering machines at 37-11-4 ATS in their last 52 games overall. They are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games and even 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. The Clippers, meanwhile, are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Clippers are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings with San Antonio.
|
05-14-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -4.5 |
Top |
82-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics -4.5 The Key: Boston won Game 1 but knows it was fortunate to do so. It did not play its best basketball, and I expect it to step it up on both ends of the floor tonight. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of less than 5.0 points and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0 points or less. The 76ers are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0 or less. Lastly, Boston has won 7 of its last 8 at home vs. Philadelphia with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.1 points.
|
05-14-12 |
San Diego: T Stauffer v. Washington: R Detwiler -148 |
Top |
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -148 The Key: The Padres are just 7-22 in their last 29 road games and 5-21 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter. We won't hesitate to fade them here as they go against the lefty Detwiler (1.04 home ERA). The Pads are only batting .199 versus southpaw starters this season. Also, the Padres are 0-6 in Stauffer's last 6 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. The Nationals are 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 9-4 in Detwiler's last 13 home starts.
|
05-13-12 |
Detroit: Verlander -170 v. Oakland: J Parker |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -170 The Key: I'm not hesitating to get behind Verlander here as the Tigers are a perfect 16-0 in his last 16 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. They have won these games by an average of 2.6 runs. Take Detroit.
|
05-13-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 |
Top |
82-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -7.5 The Key: The numbers aren't in LA's favor here as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) that are looking for revenge for a home loss to a foe, if they enter off a cover in a game they lost straight up, are just 29-61 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 7.1 points on average but have lost by an average of 9.5 points in this situation. The favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the Grizzlies are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite. Take Memphis.
|
05-12-12 |
Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
87-96 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers -5.5 The Key: The Lakers have recent history and extended history on their side here. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Also, home favorites (LA LAKERS) off a double-digit road defeat, if they have won between 60 and 75% of their games and are taking on a team with a winning mark, are 59-25 (70.2%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 5.4 points and have won by an average of 8.2.
|
05-12-12 |
Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Milwaukee: S Marcum -1.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
120 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -1.5 +120 The Key: The Brewers are showing nice value on the run line here as Chris Volstad's teams are 0-8 in his last 8 starts, losing each of those by at least 2 runs. Volstad's teams have also lost his last 2 starts against the Brewers by at least 2 runs. Lastly, Marcum is 3-0 lifetime versus the Cubs with each of those 3 wins coming by 2 runs or more. We'll take the Brew Crew on the RL behind this 13-0 run line angle.
|
05-11-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies -125 v. Los Angeles Clippers |
Top |
90-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -125 The Key: Rather than take the chance of getting caught by something flukish in the closing seconds, I'm taking the Grizzlies on the money line as I love them to win this one straight up. Memphis has been the better team the majority of the series and would have already closed it out if not for blown leads in the 4th in Games 1 and 3. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games when valued as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. Also, the fave is on a 5-2-1 ATS run in the last 8 matchups between these teams. We'll take Memphis on the money line.
|
05-11-12 |
Houston: B Norris v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald -135 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -135 The Key: We went against Pittsburgh Thursday as it suffered a 4-2 loss to Strasburg and the Nats. However, the fact it scored just 2 runs is significant and bodes well for us here. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, and the Astros are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Just the fact that Pittsburgh lost yesterday is also significant because it is 10-1 in its last 11 games following a loss. Also, the Astros are 13-40 in their last 53 road games, 0-11 in Norris' last 11 Friday starts and 2-6 in their last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh. We'll take the Pirates.
|
05-10-12 |
Atlanta Hawks +6.5 v. Boston Celtics |
Top |
80-83 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawks +6.5 The Key: Boston has constantly been overvalued in the spot we find it in tonight. The C's are only 25-45 ATS in their last 70 home games when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Celtics have only won by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. In other words, the points are looking pretty good tonight. Plus, the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 postseason contests when valued as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the underdog has covered the number in 7 of the last 9 matchups. Take the points.
|
05-10-12 |
Washington: Strasburg -165 v. Pittsburgh: K Correia |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -165 The Key: The Nats have the clear advantage with Strasburg on the bump. I don't have to give you his sick season numbers. Those are well know. I will tell you though that the Nationals are 6-1 in his last 7 road starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 3rd game of a series and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. National League Central opponents. The Pirates are only 1-6 in Correia's last 7 home starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts with 5 days' rest. The Bucs are even 0-8 in his last 8 home starters versus NL clubs that score 4.3 or less runs per game. They have lost these games by an average of 5.0 runs.
|
05-09-12 |
Detroit Tigers -120 v. Seattle Mariners |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -120 The Key: The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record, 9-2 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series, 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 21-8 in their last 29 games as a road favorite. They are also 4-1 in Smyly's last 5 starts. The Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 overall, 22-45 in their last 67 during game 3 of a series, 26-60 in their last 86 games as an underdog and 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a left-handed starter. They're are 9-20 in Vargas' last 29 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Tigers.
|
05-09-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6 |
Top |
80-92 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -6 The Key: History is on our side here in a big way as home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 60-26 (70%) ATS the last 5 seasons. These faves have won by an average of 8.7 points. Lay the points as the Grizzlies come through at home in this do-or-die spot.
|
05-08-12 |
Detroit: Verlander -1.5 v. Seattle: K Millwood |
Top |
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -109 The Key: I'm not hesitating to pull the trigger on the RL here since the Tigers are a perfect 15-0 in Verlander's last 15 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. They have won these games by an average of 2.6 runs.
|
05-08-12 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 |
|
69-77 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 25 m |
Show
|
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls -4.5 The Key: I'm not ready to turn my back on the Bulls. They had an excellent chance to win both Games 3 and 4, and I expect the home crowd to get them over the hump down the stretch tonight. Chicago is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It is also 14-4 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.
|
05-08-12 |
Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -1 |
|
86-87 |
Push |
0 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -1 The Key: Expect the Hawks to respond following Sunday's embarrassing defeat. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of 11.0 points or more. Also, Boston is only 18-34 ATS after a double-digit victory over the last 2 seasons.
|
05-08-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -10 |
Top |
87-105 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -10 The Key: The Pacers are clearly the superior team in this series, and I expect them to be very focused tonight after blowing a big lead in Game 4. The Magic have had 2 days to regroup but are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on 2 days' rest. They are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. In addition, plays against any team (ORLANDO) that is looking for revenge for a home loss to a foe, as long as the "play against" side is coming off an ATS win in a game it lost SU, are 161-102 ATS (61.2%) the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.
|
05-07-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +8.5 |
Top |
87-81 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +8.5 The Key: Going all the way back to 1996, playing against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, as long as they are a top-level team (>=75%) and are matched up against a team with a winning record, has produced a 53-25 ATS (68%) mark. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.5 points but have only won by 2.8 points on average. The Jazz, who have won 25 of 34 home games this season, are showing excellent value catching 8.5 points.
|
05-07-12 |
Texas: M Harrison -145 v. Baltimore: B Matusz |
Top |
14-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -145 The Key: The Rangers are 6-0 in Harrison's last 6 starts as a road favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Orioles, meanwhile, are 0-7 in Matusz's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rangers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with the Orioles and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with the O's when Harrison gets the start.
|
05-06-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Denver Nuggets |
Top |
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers +2.5 The Key: After getting kicked in Game 3, the Lakers will take the floor with a greater sense of urgency tonight. L.A. is on a 6-1 ATS run when checking into a game following a defeat of 11.0 points or more. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run when listed as a road underdog of less than 5.0 points. Take the points.
|
05-06-12 |
St Louis: Wainwright -138 v. Houston: J Happ |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -138 The Key: The Cards have the big edge on the hill this afternoon. Wainwright is 10-1 on the money line lifetime in 11 starts versus Houston with an ERA of only 1.38. Happ, meanwhile, is 2-6 on the money line lifetime against St. Louis with an ERA of 6.44.
|
05-06-12 |
Chicago Bulls +3.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
82-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +3.5 The Key: The Bulls are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. They have won by an average of 14.8 points in this situation. This Chicago team has too much pride to sulk over the injuries to Rose and Noah. Expect the Bulls to bounce back strong here.
|
05-05-12 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +6 |
|
102-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 33 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Bailout on Jazz +6 The Key: Playing against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 53-24 ATS since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.5 points but have only won by an average of 2.7. Take the Jazz and the points.
|
05-05-12 |
Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187 |
|
86-87 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187 The Key: Playing the "Under" on all playoff teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MEMPHIS), given the series is tied and the team sports a winning record, has produced a 35-9 mark the last 5 seasons. This system can't be ignored, especially since teams fitting into it are only combining for 180.2 points. Take the Under.
|
05-05-12 |
Milwaukee: R Wolf v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -150 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Giants -150 The Key: The Giants have a sizable advantage with Bumgarner on the bump. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall, 7-0 in Bumgarners last 7 home starts when up against a team with a losing record and 7-0 in his last 7 starts period versus a sub-.500 foe. It's also worth mention that the Giants are 11-1 in Bumgarner's last 12 home starts and the Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
|
05-05-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic +5 |
Top |
101-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* 1st Round Game of the Year on Magic +5 The Key: The Magic have an excellent shot to win this game outright given they are at home and will be highly motivated. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Also, teams coaches by Stan VG are 27-12 ATS lifetime when checking in off a loss of 15 points or more. His teams have won by an average of 3.9 points in these spots. The Pacers are a poor 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, and the Magic are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games in the underdog role. Take the Magic and the points.
|
05-04-12 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -3.5 |
Top |
84-99 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -3.5 The Key: Denver definitely has the edge here at home where it should be able to control the tempo. The Nuggets are going to run-and-gun a Lakers team without great depth right off the court (the high-altitude will do no favors for LA). The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Bet Denver.
|
05-04-12 |
Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers |
|
74-79 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
6* NBA CA$H COW on Bulls +1.5 The Key: No Rose for the rest of this series, but Chicago still has the edge because of how well it can perform on the defensive end. It is 7-0 ATS when looking for revenge for a loss to a foe that occurred this season. It has won these contests by 12.4 points while holding the opposition to just 81.3 points in these spots. In other words, it has really stepped up the "D" in revenge spots, and I expect no different here.
|
05-04-12 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -154 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-154 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -154 The Key: This is a game Boston wants badly as it was Baltimore who rallied for a 4-3 victory in last season's finale to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs. John Lester is coming off a masterful performance and he is 14-0 (16-2 on the money line) with a 2.36 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Orioles. Boston is a perfect 8-0 in his home starts versus Baltimore, winning those by an average of 4.4 runs. Bet Bean Town.
|
05-03-12 |
Toronto: B Morrow v. LA Anaheim: D Haren -128 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -128 The Key: Toronto's Morrow is 0-3 on the money line in his career versus the Angels with an ERA of 4.76. Also, the Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 35-17 in their last 52 games as a home favorite and 5-1 in Harens last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet LAA.
|
05-03-12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 |
|
95-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Bailout on Mavs -3.5 The Key: It's been made apparent in the first two games of this series that the reigning champs won't go down without a fight. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of less then 5.0 points. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of less than 5.0 points, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. the NBA Southwest division and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with Dallas. Lay the points.
|
05-03-12 |
Miami Heat v. New York Knicks +6 |
Top |
87-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +6 The Key: The Knicks are arguably a better team without Stoudemire because of the liability he is at the defensive end. It was no surprise, in my opinion, that they won 9 of 13 games without him in the lineup down the stretch. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. We'll see New York's best effort of the entire series tonight, and it should be good enough to get the cover.
|
05-02-12 |
Minnesota: L Hendriks v. LA Anaheim: J Weaver -1.5 |
Top |
0-9 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Angels -1.5 +100 The Key: The Angels are 3-0 in Weaver's home starts this season, winning those starts by an average of 4.7 runs. The Halos are also 5-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Twins, winning those by an average of 5.0 runs. Take LAA on the run line.
|
05-02-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 |
|
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Playoffs Bailout on Grizzlies -6.5 The Key: The Grizzlies blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, and they'll be extremely hungry in Game 2 because of it. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 or their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win rates), are 60-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams, which have been favored by an average of 5.6 points, have won by an average of 8.8 points. Memphis has won 11 of its last 12 at home with those 11 wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. In other words, the Grizzlies are showing value laying just 6.5. Lay the points.
|
05-02-12 |
Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic +3.5 |
Top |
97-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +3.5 The Key: The Pacers can't be trusted laying points on the road considering they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of less than 5.0 points. The Magic, on the other hand, are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of less than 5.0 points. Take the points.
|
05-01-12 |
Denver Nuggets +6 v. Los Angeles Lakers |
Top |
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +6 The Key: This is a strong situational spot for Denver as road teams coming off a blowout loss of at least 15 points, provided they average 102 points or more per game and are up against a team that averages 92-98 ppg, are 61-27 ATS since 1996. The team fitting these parameters has won outright by an average of 1.2 points. Also, this system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Nuggets.
|
05-01-12 |
Miami: R Nolasco v. San Francisco: M Cain -148 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-148 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Bailout on Giants -148 The Key: Odds makers are expecting a pitcher's duel based on the low total, and that means a San Francisco club used to playing and winning a lot of low-scoring close games has the advantage. The Marlins are 0-7 in their last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Giants are 4-0 in Cain's last 4 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Florida is really struggling. It has lost 8 of its last 9 and faces a difficult scheduling spot playing without a day of rest following a cross-coutry trip. Take the Giants.
|
05-01-12 |
Boston Celtics +5 v. Atlanta Hawks |
|
87-80 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5 The Key: This line is an overreaction by odds makers to Rondo's absence due to suspension. Boston's ability to lock down its opponent on the defensive end cannot be overlooked here. The Celtics are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a defeat. Game 1 was the only time Atlanta has defeated Boston by more than 5 points in the last 7 meetings. Grab the points.
|
04-30-12 |
Los Angeles: A Harang v. Colorado: J Nicasio -130 |
|
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* MLB CA$H COW on Rockies -130 The Key: The Rockies are 8-1 all-time in Nicasio's home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 9-3 in his last 12 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a home favorite. We'll take the Rockies.
|
04-30-12 |
Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers -8.5 |
Top |
78-93 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 10 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers -8.5 The Key: We won with Orlando +9 in Game 1, but we'll side with the Pacers tonight. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) that are looking for revenge for a defeat, provided they were limited to fewer than 85 points in the loss, they hold a winning percentage of 60-75% and their opponent has a winning record, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. These squads have won by 10.5 points on average in this situation. The Pacers were caught overlooking a Dwight Howard-less team in Game 1, but they won't get caught napping again. Indy flexes its muscles here and scores a blowout victory.
|
04-29-12 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
99-98 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (TNT) on Grizzlies -5.5 The Key: The Grizzlies went 5-0-1 ATS in the first round of last year's playoffs, and I expect their first round dominance to continue against a Clippers squad checking in at 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite and 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis has been dominant at home, where it has won 11 in a row and went 5-1 in the 2011 postseason.
|