Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-02-17 | Oilers v. Predators -135 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP SHELF BEATDOWN on the Nashville Predators. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends: As note that Edmonton is just 13-17 (-7.9 units) this year in revenging a loss against an opponent, while Nashville is 11-7 (+3.2 units) after a non-conference game and 12-8 (+3.6 units) against teams with winning records. The bottom line: Both teams come off losses to open the second half, but the numbers listed above and home ice advantage can’t be overlooked. Play on NASHVILLE. AAA Sports |
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01-26-17 | Capitals -175 v. Devils | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. REASONING: After falling 4-0 at Ottawa on Thursday, we’re expecting the Capitals to come out fired up tonight. The lowly Devils come off a 3-1 home loss to the Kings on Tuesday. Washington though is 5-1 in its last six against the Metropolitan, while New Jersey is 0-5 its last five in front of the home town crowd. Note that the road team is 4-1 the last five in this series, while Washington is 8-1 the last nine in this series overall. We expect the league leading Capitals to go into the All Star break off one last big effort. Lay the price with confidence, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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01-25-17 | Flyers v. Rangers -166 | 2-0 | Loss | -166 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers. REASONING: Philadelphia is poised for a letdown here after its 3-2 OT road win over the Islanders. New York enters off a 3-2 home win over the Kings. The Flyers will send Steve Mason to the net, he’s 15-21 with a 2.92 GAA this season, including going 5-13 with a 3.17 GAA on the road. He’s 7-9 with a 2.37 GAA lifetime against the Rangers. New York will counter with Henrik Lundqvist, who is 21-13 with a 2.75 GAA on the year and 33-17 with a 2.39 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. New York looks to be over its defensive struggles and we think offers great value in this matchup, lay the price with confidence as we look for Lundqvist to easily outplay his inconsistent counterpart. Play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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01-24-17 | Sabres v. Predators -168 | 5-4 | Loss | -168 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Nashville Predators. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Buffalo is 27-50 (-11.8 units) following a divisional contest, while Nashville is already 5-2 (+2.2 units) this season after playing three consecutive road games. The bottom line: Buffalo has been consistently inconsistent on the road and we have a hard time seeing the team matching pace with the PREDATORS tonight. AAA Sports |
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01-24-17 | Flames v. Canadiens -191 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Montreal Canadiens 7:35 EST We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Calgary is already just 3-6 (-2.2 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days and just 7-10 (-4. units) in non-conference games, while Montreal is 14-6 (+6.8 units) this year when playing against teams with losing records and 9-7 (+1.8 units) in non-conference contests. The bottom line: It’s hard to imagine the struggling Flames mounting much of an offensive attack in the second game of the back to back. Lay the price, play on MONTREAL. AAA Sports |
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01-24-17 | Blues v. Penguins -203 | 3-0 | Loss | -203 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Pittsburgh Penguins. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that St. Louis is just 6-7 (-3.2 units) this season when playing with two days rest, while Pittsburgh is 16-6 (+7.1 units) against teams with losing records and 8-3 (+4.1 units) after a three game unbeaten streak. The bottom line: The Penguins are also 15-8 (+4.4 units) this year after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest. We expect all of the above trends to continue, so lay the price with confidence on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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01-23-17 | Sharks -225 v. Avalanche | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that San Jose is 15-9 (+1.5 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Colorado is just 7-13 (1.9 units) against teams with winning records. The bottom line: This is the second game of the back to back and the Sharks needed OT at home to win the first one. The Avs have been ravaged by injury and are once again a sizeable dog tonight. We think the visitors take nothing for granted and keep the foot on the gas from the opening tip until the final horn. Lay the price with confidence on SAN JOSE. AAA Sports |
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01-19-17 | Senators v. Blue Jackets -165 | 2-0 | Loss | -165 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Columbus Blue Jackets. REASONING: Looks like a prime letdown spot for the Sens after their 6-4 road win over St. Louis last time out. Columbus continues to roll as it enters off a relatively simple 4-1 home win over Carolina. Senators’ goaltender Mike Condon is just 5-4 with a pedestrian 2.93 GAA on the road this year. Blue Jackets’ netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 16-3 with a 1.79 GAA at home. Note that Ottawa is already just 5-6 (-1.4 units) after a victory by two goals or more, while Columbus is 14-2 (+12.8 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. We feel this line should be a lot higher. A superior offense and goaltender make COLUMBUS the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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01-18-17 | Coyotes v. Jets -184 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Winnipeg Jets. REASONING: Arizona comes to town off a 3-1 loss in Edmonton, while Winnipeg enters off a 5-2 road loss at San Jose. The Jets have to be feeling pretty confident that they can return to the winners circle tonight though as they’ve taken six straight in this series in front of the home town crowd. The Coyotes have lost 11 of their last 13 and goaltender Mike Smith is 8-17 with a 2.84 GAA on the year, including a 3-8, 2.83 GAA on the road. Arizona is ranked 29th in scoring with an average of 2.02 GPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive end in allowing 3.16. Winnipeg has in fact lost four staright. Ondrej Pavelec is expected between the pipes tonight for the Jets and he’s 6-3 with a 2.11 GAA lifetime against the Coyotes. Note that Winnipeg ranks 15th in scoring with 2.70 GPG and 26th in goals allowed at 3.06. Also note that Arizona is just 13-39 in its last 52 road games against teams with a winning home record, while Winnipeg is 5-1 in its last six against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We think the hungrier home side finally gets off the schneid. Lay the price, play on the JETS. AAA Sports |
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01-17-17 | Devils v. Wild -220 | 4-3 | Loss | -220 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Minnesota Wild. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that New Jersey is just 6-14 (-5.5 units) this year agasint clubs with winning records and only 8-11 (-1.3 units) in non-conference games, while Minnesota is 15-8 (+5.6 units) this season in revenging a loss against an opponent and 13-5 (+7.8 units) in non-conference contests. The bottom line: Look for Minnesota to avenge the earlier loss and find a way to get the job done at the ene of the night. Lay the price with confidence on the WILD. AAA Sports |
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01-14-17 | Rangers v. Canadiens -143 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens. REASONING: No need to overthink this one in our opinion. The Habs come in having won 7-4 in Winnipeg and then falling 7-1 in Minnesota. Clearly Canadiens’ goaltender Carey Price will be out to atone for the 11 goals given up over the last two games. Note though that Price is still 14-6 with a 2.00 GAA here at home, while vs the Rangers in his career he has gone 12-6 with a 1.74. GAA. The visitors will counter with Antti Raanta, who is 6-11 with a 2.26 GAA on the road. These teams are as solid as you can get on both ends of the ice, each ranking in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Rangers though come in gassed after last night’s loss to the Leafs, while the HABS come in motivated after the letdown against the Wild. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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01-10-17 | Bruins v. Blues -111 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -111 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE YEAR on the St. Louis Blues. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Boston is a poor 7-10 (-4 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 6-10 (-4.4 units) against teams with winning records, while St. Louis is 31-15 (+10.4 units) in its last 46 when playing with two days rest and 10-7 (+2.5 units) in all non-conference games. The bottom line: The Bruins have struggled in non-conference games this year, going just 5-7 (-4.4 units). We expect all of these strong trends to continue and all things considered, we believe this to be the very definition of “great line value.” Play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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01-07-17 | Red Wings v. Sharks -204 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Detroit is already 4-6 (-1.9 units) this year after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest and only 7-9 (-1.2 units0 against clubs with winning records, while San Jose is 14-6 (+5.4 units) in all non-conference games this year, 2-0 (+2.2 units) after three or more consecutive losses and 3-1 (+1.9 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. The bottom line: We’re expecting these extremely strong trends to continue tonight, lay the price with confidence on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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01-05-17 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -130 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Washington Capitals. REASONING: As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of games/contests that we keep our eyes out for. Columbus enters on a 16 game win streak, one which has been filled with more than a few come from behind improbable performances. The Blue Jackets are No. 2 in scoring and No. 2 on the defensive end. Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in scoring, but is No. 3 on defense. The Capitals though play with revenge here after falling 3-2 to Columbus back on November 20th. Note that Washington is already 12-5 (+4.7 units) this season in revenging a loss against an opponent. We think the wheels finally come off the bus for the Blue Jackets and the hungry home side delivers in the end. Play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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01-04-17 | Avalanche v. Flames -203 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Calgary Flames. REASONING: The Avs enter off a 3-2 road loss in Vancouver on Monday, while Calgary beat up on another cellar dweller on Saturday, dispatching the lowly Coyotes 4-2. Colorado has lost nine of its last ten and has only one player with double-digits in goals. Note that the Avalanche have scored two or fewer goals in eight out of their last nine. Goaltending has also been a weak point for last in the league Colorado, as Pickard owns a 3.14 GAA and Semyon Varlamov has a 3.33 GAA and .901 save percentage. The Avs average a league worst 2.1 GPG and concede a league worst 3.4 GPG. The Flames allow 2.8 GPG, which ranks them 20th. The power play looked sharp against Arizona, going 2 for 4, while the penalty kill was a perfect 4 for 4. The Flames average 2.6 GPG this year, which ranks them 16th overall, but the offense has picked up the pace of late and they currently own a three point cushion in the wildcard spot. Note that Colorado is just 1-6 in its last seven after scoring two or fewer goals in its previous game, while Calgary is interestingly 4-0 in its last four against the Central division. The Flames have scored four or more goals in four of their last six and just netted six goals against the Avs last week. Colorado has allowed an atrocious 4.3 GPG over its last five and all signs point to another blowout tonight. Lay the price, play on the FLAMES. AAA Sports |
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01-03-17 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Capitals. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense: The Capitals play with revenge today after falling to Toronto 4-1 last month, and note that the Leafs are just 6-8 (-2.6 units) this season after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, while Washington is 11-5 (+3.7 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The bottom line: With a very winnable game at New Jersey on Thursday to end their road trip, we think the Leafs come out a bit flat tonight and the revenge minded home side takes full advantage. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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12-29-16 | Avalanche v. Stars -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Dallas Stars. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Colorado is just 4-11 (-8.8 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and interestingly, just 6-9 (-2.3 units) after a loss by two goals or more, while Dallas is 23-16 (+4.4 units) in its last 39 games played in the month of December. The bottom line: Dallas keeps getting healthier, while the Avs are ravaged with injury. We’re laying the price with confidence and expecting a wire-to-wire rout, play on the STARS. AAA Sports |
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12-28-16 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Florida Panthers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Toronto is just 5-12 (-6 units) when playing with three or more days rest and only 3-6 (-3.6 units) following a victory by two goals or more, while Florida is 57-48 (+14.1 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 6-3 (+2.8 units) this year after allowing four goals or more. The bottom line: The Panthers return from the break on a two-game slide and they’re also out to avenge a brutal 6-1 loss to the Leafs in mid November. We think the visitors get caught looking ahead to their game in Tampa Bay tomorrow night and all things considered, we do indeed feel we’re getting great line value in this one. Play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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12-27-16 | Stars -145 v. Coyotes | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Stars. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Dallas is 9-4 (+5.8 units) this year when playing with three or more days rest and 18-9 (+9.8 units) in its last 27 after playing three consecutive home games, while Arizona is just 4-8 (-2 units) this season after allowing four goals or more and only 7-12 (-4 units) in its last 19 when playing with three or more days rest. The bottom line: The Stars continue to get healthier and the X-Mas break couldn’t have come at a better time. We’re expecting a rout from start to finish, play on DALLAS. AAA Sports |
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12-27-16 | Jets v. Blackhawks -172 | 3-1 | Loss | -172 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Blackhawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Winnipeg is just 7-8 (-1.2 units) in its last 15 when playing with three or more days rest and only 3-5 (-1.8 units) this season after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Chicago is already 8-2 (+6.3 units) this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 5-2 (+2.7 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. The bottom line: Looks like CHICAGO is primed for a big win in its first game back after the X-Mas break, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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12-27-16 | Senators v. Rangers -162 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Rangers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Ottawa is 6-9 (-2.8 units) in its last 15 when playing with three or more days rest and only 6-8 (-2.3 units) this season following a non-conference contest, while New York is 11-4 (+6.6 units) in revenging a loss against an opponent and 12-3 (+5.6 units) following a non-conference game. The bottom line: With a couple days off over Christmas, we’re expecting the home side to build off these strong situational trends listed above. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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12-23-16 | Canucks v. Flames -165 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense: Vancouver played and lost 4-1 at home to Winnipeg last night. Calgary has had two whole nights off to prepare for this final game before the Christmas break. The Flames play with revenge here as well after falling 2-1 in a shootout to the Canucks on November 15th. Note that Vancouver is a poor 13-19 (-2 units) in its last 32 when playing on back-to-back days, while Calgary is a perfect 4-0 (+4.5 units) this season when playing with two days rest. Lay the price with confidence, play on the FLAMES. AAA Sports |
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12-22-16 | Hurricanes v. Sabres -115 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Buffalo Sabres. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: Note that the home side has won five of the last six in this series. Buffalo has won three of its last four at home overall and plays with revenge after falling 2-1 in a shootout in Carolina just last week. The bottom line: In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on BUFFALO. AAA Sports |
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12-20-16 | Senators v. Blackhawks -170 | 4-3 | Loss | -170 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Blackhawks. REASONING: Chicago leads the NHL with 48 points and enters on a five-game win streak. Ottawa can’t be overlooked tonight as it sits in second in the Atlantic. The Sens have won two straight following a three-game slide. Mike Condon is expected to start for the visitors, he’s 6-3-2 with a 2.25 GAA. The Blackhawks have been riding the hot netminding of backup Scott Darling, who is 6-2-1 since starter Corey Crawford went down. Note that Hawks’ winger Artemi Panarin was named the NHL’s First Star last week, finishing with two goals and three assists. Also note that Ottawa is just 1-5 in its last six against the Western Conference, while Chicago is 5-0 this year when playing on one days rest. These teams split their two games last year, each winning at home. We look for that trend to continue here, lay the price on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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12-20-16 | Avalanche v. Wild -230 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Minnesota Wild. REASONING: The Wild have won seven straight and we’re expecting that momentum to get carried over here. The Avs are reeeling, they’ve lost three straight, most recently a loss to Winnipeg on Sunday. Minnesota goaltender Devan Dubnyk is the NHL’s leader in GAA at 1.62, and also save percentage at .947. Eric Staal leads the Wild with 24 points and enters on the backs of a four-game point streak. Note that the Avs are just 1-4 in their last five against teams with winning records, while Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six against clubs with losing records. Colorado is struggling in all facets and we’re expecting the surging home side to take full advantage. Lay the price with confidence, play on the WILD. AAA Sports |
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12-20-16 | Ducks v. Canadiens -169 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Montreal Canadiens. REASONING: No need to overthink this one. Anaheim played and won 3-2 in Toronto just last night. The Habs have had two nights off after beating the Capitals 2-1 in Washington. Note that Montreal is 14-2-2 at home this year, while Anaheim is a mediocre 7-7-4 on the road. And note that Anaheim is just 7-8 (-3.2 units) this year in non-conference games. Lay the price, play on the CANADIENS. AAA Sports |
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12-19-16 | Predators +113 v. Flyers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 113 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Nashville Predators. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Nashville is 4-2 (+1.8 units) this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous game and 6-3 (+2.3 units) following a non-conference game, while Philadelphia is 11-15 (-4.6 units) in its last 16 after playing three consecutive road games. The bottom line: Philadelphia just had its nine game win streak snapped in the final game of its five game road trip. This sets up nicely as a letdown spot for the Flyers in their first game back home. Nashville also plays with revenge today. Great spot bet, play on the PREDATORS. AAA Sports |
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12-17-16 | Lightning v. Oilers -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Edmonton Oilers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense: Note that Tampa Bay is just 1-5 (-6.5 units) this year in non-conference games, while Edmonton is 5-3 (+2 units) this season after a loss by two gaols or more in its previous game. The bottom line: The Lightning come off a 4-2 loss in Vancouver just last night, while Edmonton has had two whole nights off. If not now for the Oilers, when? Lay the price with confidence, play on EDMONTON. AAA Sports |
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12-16-16 | Kings v. Penguins -185 | 1-0 | Loss | -185 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Pittsburgh Penguins. REASONING: LA got wrecked 6-3 in Buffalo and then bounced back with a 4-1 win in Detroit last night. Pittsburgh enters off a hard-fought 4-3 OT victory over Boston. LA has struggled considerably on the road this year, going just 4-9 away from friendly confines thus far, compared to 10-5 at home. Goaltender Jeff Zatkoff is 1-5 with a 3.20 GAA on the season. So far LA is ranked 17th in the league in scoring at 2.61 GPG, while allowing 2.64 per contest. The Pens will likely counter with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury and he’s 7-3 with a 2.86 GAA at home and is 6-5 with a 2.03 GAA lifetime against the Kings. The Pens are first in the league in scoring with an average of 3.53 GPG, while ranked 21st in goals allowed at 2.87 per contest. No need to overthink this one, after winning just last night, we’re expecting the Kings to have a predictable letdown here. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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12-13-16 | Panthers v. Wild -153 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Minnesota Wild. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Florida is just 1-3 (-1.8 units) when playing with two days rest and only 1-5 (-3.9 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Minnesota is 8-4 (+3.6 units) in non-conference games this season and 5-3 (+1.3 units) following a divisional contest. The bottom line: Florida has been poor on the road, while Minnesota has been tough at home. We look for all of the above trends to continue, play on the WILD. AAA Sports |
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12-10-16 | Canucks v. Panthers -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Florida Panthers. REASONING: Both teams have struggled with consistency this year, but this one sets up perfectly for the home side in our opinion. The Panthers have lost four straight and will clearly be “hungry” to get off the schneid, this is the final home game before a tough four-game trip. Also note that Vancouver is just 1-4 (-2.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Florida is 5-1 (+4 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. Lay the price with confidence, play on the PANTHERS. AAA Sports |
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12-09-16 | Oilers v. Wild -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Wild. REASONING: Any momentum that the upstart Oilers had at the start of the year has basically been lost, Edmonton comes into the finale of its three-game road trip just 24 hours after losing a disheartening 6-5 game in Philadelphia. It’s hard to imagine the Wild “looking past” the Oilers today, who return home after finishing a five-game trip in which they went 2-1-2, ending with consecutive victories over the Oilers (2-1) and the Leafs (3-2). Devan Dubnyk is expected to get the call in net for the home side tonight and he’s 7-1-0 with a tiny 1.23 GAA lifetime against Edmonton. Minnesota is tenth in the league in scoring at 2.76 GPG, but is No. 1 on the defensive end, allowing only 2.04. Note that the Oilers are just 11-46 in their last 57 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while the Wild are 6-2 in their last eight home games following a road trip of seven or more days. We’re expecting a rout from start to finish, play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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12-08-16 | Canucks v. Lightning -201 | 5-1 | Loss | -201 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Tampa Bay Lightning. REASONING: Vancouver is the third-lowest scoring team in the league, averaging 2.18 GPG. That doesn’t bode well for the visitors today who face a Lightning team which has won back to back games over Washington and Carolina, while giving up just two total goals in the process. Don’t think for a second though that Tampa is “looking past,” the lowly Canucks today: "In the NHL, teams that may struggle to score goals can put up six or seven," Lightning captain Ryan Callahan assessed last night. "So you can't look at numbers or say that they are struggling offensively. The big thing for us is the way we play defensively and we can hopefully continue that trend for them. But it's always about our game and what we are doing, not so much the other team so we don't really look at those stats too much." Good news for the home side, Callahan returns to the lineup tonight, along with defenseman Jason Garrison. Unfortunate news for the already under-manned Canucks, defenseman Philip Larsen is out for an unknown amount of time after getting knocked out in New Jersey on Tuesday from a hard hit from Taylor Hall. We’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout, play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports |
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12-06-16 | Avalanche v. Predators -204 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators. REASONING: The Avs are reeling, losers of five straight. The Predators can feel their pain, as they’ve dropped three of their last four. However, we think the deeper home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. During Colorado’s slide, it’s been outscored 20-10, most recently a 3-0 home loss to Dallas. It was the eighth game in a row that the team failed to register more than three goals in a contest. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is 5-11 with a 3.02 GAA, including just 2-5 with a 3.29 GAA on the road. Not surprsing to learn that the Avs rank 29th in the league in scoring at just 2.13 GPG. The defense has been a little better, but not by much, conceding 2.96 GPG, ranked 24th. Nashville is still 8-4 at home despite back-to-back losses. Goaltender Pakka Rinne is 10-9 with a 2.18 GAA on the season, including 7-3 with a 1.68 GAA at home. Nashville is ranked sixth overall in scoring with 2.96 GPG, while the defense allows 2.67, ranked 18th. Note that the Avs are just 1-7 in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while Nashville is 5-2 in its last seven against the Western Conference. We’re banking on the “better” team showing up today, play on NASHVILLE. AAA Sports |
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12-04-16 | Ducks v. Flames +102 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 102 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on the Calgary Flames. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics, the “revenge factor” and common sense: The Flames fell to Anaheim, 4-1 on November 6th. Calgary has won back-to-back games and looks to keep the momentum rolling here before embarking on a road trip. Anaheim is coming off a loss in Edmonton just last night and now faces a revenge minded Flames team that is already 9-7 (+4.4 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: Also note that the Ducks are just 6-7 (-2.3 units) this year against teams with losing records. Great situational play on CALGARY. AAA Sports |
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12-03-16 | Stars v. Avalanche -104 | 3-0 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Colorado Avalanche. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics, as well as the “revenge” factor: Colorado lost to Dallas just last week, so will be out to avenge that setback. The Avs have also lost four straight and finish a homestand before a lengthy trip. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. Also note that Dallas is just 4-6 (-2.9 units) after allowing four goals or more, while Colorado is 10-8 (+1.7 units) in its last 18 after three or more consecutive losses. The bottom line: A great situation, combined with strong trends make the AVALANCHE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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11-26-16 | Canucks v. Avalanche -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche. REASONING: Colorado may be “banged” up, but regardless of that fact, we think this one favors the home side, which catches Vancouver off a 2-1 loss in Dallas just last night. The Avs won’t have No. 1 goaltender Semyon Varlamov in net, but backup Calvin Pickard has been a bright spot in relief, going 4-1 with a 2.07 GAA. And besides, Vancouver is dealing with injuries of its own, as winger Sven Baertschi missed last night’s game because of a toe issue. In all fairness, the Canucks have looked a bit better of late, going 4-3-1 over their last eight, but with two nights off before a a home game against the Wild on Tuesday, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a lookahead spot for the visitors as well. We’re banking on Pickard continuing his hot play and for the AVALANCHE to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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11-21-16 | Devils v. Sharks -195 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Jose Sharks. REASONING: Both teams come into this one struggling to generate offense, but we think this one sets up nicely for the home side. This is the opening game of a five game stand for the Sharks and a stretch of seven of eight at the SAP Center. They return home off a 3-3-0 road trip, opening with ten goals over the first three wins, but totaling just four in the three consecutive setbacks. New Jersey is just 1-2-0 on its current four-game road trip, most recently a 4-2 setback to the Kings on Saturday. The Devils simply lack talent on the offensive end right now as both Taylor Hall and Michael Cammalleri are out. Note that New Jersey has failed to score on the power play in its last eight games, going 0 for 26 in that span. The SHARKS look to take advantage of that and to avenge back-to-back losses to the Devils at home, most recently a 3-0 setback last March 10th. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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11-20-16 | Flames v. Red Wings -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Red Wings. REASONING: Detroit lost 1-0 to Washington on Friday, while Calgary fell 3-2 to Chicago. Detroit is just 2-7-1 in its last ten, but gets a boost tonight with the expected return of left wing Thomas Vanek, who missed the past 11 games with a hip strain. Before he was injured, he led the team with four goals and eight points in seven games: “He's a big player for us," teammate Justin Abdelkader observed. "Obviously, he got off to that great start. It was tough to see him go down with injury. He'll come in and bring a veteran presence. He's really strong on the puck and he's got a great shot." Calgary has also struggled with consistency this year and has been particularly poor on the road. The Flames also have major injury issues, most notably to offensive star Johnny Gaudreau, out 6 to 8 weeks with a broken finger. Note that Calgary is just 1-4 (-3.8 units) against teams with losing records this year, while Detroit is 11-8 (+2.6 units) in its last 19 after three or more consecutive losses. Play on the RED WINGS. AAA Sports |
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11-19-16 | Lightning v. Flyers +107 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Flyers. REASONING: Tampa Bay comes to town off a 4-1 road win at Buffalo, while Philadelphia enters off a 5-2 thrashing of the Winnipeg Jets. The Lightning have won all three of their games so far on this road trip, but we think they’ll finally have a letdown here after losing their captain Steven Stamkos to injury for an undetermined amount of time. Note that Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop is 4-3 with a 2.59 GAA on the road this year (and note that he’s just 2-2 with a 2.85 GAA lifetime against Philadelphia). Flyers’ goaltender Steve Mason is just 4-8 with a 3.13 GAA, but looked solid in the win over the Jets (note that he owns a 2.60 GAA lifetime against Tampa Bay). Philadelphia is ranked third in the NHL with an average of 3.33 GPG. Philadlephia has been getting better defensive play and goaltending and catches the Lightning vulnerable in this spot. Play on the FLYERS. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Panthers v. Canadiens -158 | 4-3 | Loss | -158 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens. REASONING: It’s a prime letdown spot for Florida after it rallied for a win over the Islanders on Saturday, coming back from a 2-0 deficit in the third period: “That was a big win for us," Panthers’ goaltender Roberto Luongo confirmed. "Not just the matter of getting a win, but something of a rallying point for guys. Hopefully, we can build around, take the momentum, the emotions of the win and carry it through the next little while here." Montreal enters off just its second regulation loss of the year after falling in Chicago on Saturday. But the Habs have to be feeling pretty confident they can bounce back, they’re 10-0-0 at home, outscoring their opposition 37-12. Goaltender Carey Price has yet to lose a game and has been unstoppable at home and we don’t see that trend changing here. And note that Florida is just 11-14 (-3 units) in its last 15 when playing with two days rest, while Montreal is already 6-1 (+5 units) against the division. Lay the price with confidence, play on MONTREAL. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Jets v. Avalanche -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense. The Jets played and won in Arizona just last night. The Avs have had two nights off after falling 4-2 to the Coyotes. Colorado plays with revenge after losing to Winnipeg 1-0 two weeks ago. The situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Avs tonight are off the charts in our opinion. Also note that Winnipeg is just 2-3 (-1.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Colorado is 31-21 (+16.1 units) in its last 52 following a loss by two goals or more. Play on the AVALANCHE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Wild v. Penguins -167 | 4-2 | Loss | -167 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Pittsburgh Penguins. REASONING: No need to overthink this one too much, while Minnesota will surely be fired up here in facing the defending champs, it comes to town off two straight losses in which its offense has stalled. The Pens will look to take advantage, they have nothing to “look ahead” too, with a game against Toronto at home on Saturday. But from an ATS trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much better than this as Minnesota is just 23-25 (-4 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous game, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 (+2 units) in non-conference games. Lay the price, play on the PENGUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-08-16 | Oilers v. Penguins -171 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Penguins. REASONING: The Oilers are 9-3-1 to open the year, led by Connor McDavid. The Penguins are 9-3-1 and 5-0-1 at home, led by Sidney Crosby. The Oilers are 5-1-1 on the road and are coming off a 2-1 win in Detroit. Pittsburgh returns home after a successful 3-0-1 road trip. These teams are stacked top-to-bottom with skilled players on both ends of the ice and each has been backed by superb goaltending. Clearly, on paper they’re very evenly matched. This is one of the most anticipated games of the early season, as it pits Crosby against McDavid, who many feel could be the league’s “face” in the next few years. We simply can’t see the Pens “looking past” Edmonton today, or not giving a 100% effort. Conversely, we think the pressure is finally going to get to the younger Oilers and note, Edmonton has in fact struggled in this spot already this year, going just 4-5 (-1.4 units) in all non-conference contests. And note that Pittsburgh has dominated in this spot, going 3-1 (+1.6 units) against teams with winning records. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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11-08-16 | Red Wings +128 v. Flyers | 3-2 | Win | 128 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Red Wings. REASONING: We think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog Wings, who will be desperately trying to snap a five-game slide. Detroit has to be feeling pretty confident in going up against Flyers’ goaltender Steve Mason, who is 2-4-0 with a 3.46 GAA and .878 SP, with starter Michal Neuvirth being given the night off. The visitors also play with revenge after falling 4-3 in OT to the Flyers on November 2nd, blowing a 3-2 lead in the final minute of the game. Note that Detroit is already 4-3 (+1.4 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 3-5 (-2.4 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. Play on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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11-03-16 | Canucks v. Senators -171 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Ottawa Senators. REASONING: Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that’s they approach we’ll be taking with this matchup. The Canucks come to town tired after last night’s disheartening 3-0 loss in Montreal and have now dropped five in a row. The Sens are rolling, 6-3-0 to start the season, which included a 3-0 win at Vancouver on October 25th. During Vancouver’s losing streak, the team has mustered a paltry two goals. Ottawa comes in off a 2-1 OT win over the Hurricanes on Tuesday and has won three of its last four, thanks in large part to the stellar play of goaltender Craid Anderson, who has won his last three starts while stopping 91 of 92 shots. Canucks’ goaltender Ryan Miller is 18-21-4 against Ottawa with a .919 save percentage. If Miller doesn’t pull back-to-back duties, then back-up Jack Marksstrom will get the nod, note that he’s 0-1 against the Sens, allowing four goals the only time he faced them. We think OTTAWA comes into this one focused and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Capitals -158 v. Jets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. REASONING: No need to overthink this one. Washington arrives to town on the backs of a two-game win streak, most recently a 5-2 win at Vancouver, followed by a 3-1 win over the Flames. Winnipeg continues to get inconsistent play to open the year and note that it’s a horrible 34-53 (-8.4 units) in its last 87 against teams with winning records, while Washington is 13-7 (+2.6 units) in its last 20 after playing three consecutive road games. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Capitals -170 v. Canucks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. Reasoning: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. Other times though we feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here as Vancouver comes off a divisional contest against red hot Edmonton just last night, while Washington comes in off back-to-back losses and two nights off to re-focus on the task at hand. We’re expecting a lop-sided, wire-to-wire effort from the visitors today, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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10-28-16 | Jets v. Avalanche -150 | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 31 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche. REASONING: Sometimes we feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game, while other times we believe a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here. Colorado has had six whole days off to prepare for this one, while Winnipeg expended all of its energy in last night’s 4-1 home win over the Stars. How is Colorado not a bigger favorite here? Note that Winnipeg is a poor 8-13 (-1.2 units) in its last 21 when playing on back-to-back days, while Colorado is 30-18 (+9.4 units) in its last 48 following a loss by two goals or more. Lay the price with confidence, play on the AVALANCHE. AAA Sports |
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10-27-16 | Islanders v. Penguins -170 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins. REASONING: Sidney Crosby returned from injury to score a goal in his team’s 3-2 win over the Panthers on Tuesday. The Pens have been getting good goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, but could be welcoming back starting goaltender Matt Murray for the first time. Whoever gets the start, we obviously love the home side in this one. Sometimes we feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at trends, scheduling and other situational factors, but other times we think a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here. New York battled tough last night at home, but fell 3-2 to visiting Montreal and now has to board a plane and travel to see the well-rested defending cup champs, who are almost at 100% health across the board. Note that Murray has faced the Isles once, a 5-0 win on April 2nd, his first shutout in the NHL. We’re laying the price with confidence, play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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10-25-16 | Lightning -137 v. Maple Leafs | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Lightning. REASONING: The Lightning are dominating to open the year and we think they’ll be looking to make a statement tonight against a potentially dangerous Maple Leafs team. Toronto definitely looks better on the offensive end to open the 2016/17 campaign, but it’s been horrible defensively. The Bolts on the other hand are getting solid play on both ends of the ice, led by captain Steven Stamkos, who has three goals and two assists. Tampa most recently easily handled the Senators 4-1 on Saturday. Toronto on the other hand comes back home completely deflated after three straight road losses. Tampa will send Ben Bishop to the net, he’s 2-1-0 with an .861 save percentage and a 3.68 GAA, while Toronto will counter with Frederik Andersen, who is 1-0-3 with an .879 save percentage and a 3.64 GAA. The bottom line: Note that Tampa Bay is 29-15 (+8.6 units) in its last 44 when playing with two days rest, while Toronto is just 16-21 (-2.7 units) in its last 37 in the same position. Lay the price with confidence on the visitors, play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports |
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10-20-16 | Sabres v. Canucks -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Vancouver Canucks. REASONING: Not many thought Vancouver would jump out to a 3-0 start, but the youth movement is making the most of some home games to start the season and with one last chance before hitting the road, we’re looking for the Canucks strong defensive play to carry over here. Vancouver has needed to come from behind in all three games, winning in the shootout and in two OT’s. But with a road trip in LA and Anaheim over the weekend, we’re expecting the home side to put added emphasis on tonight’s contest. Buffalo has a ton of great young talent, but consistency, especially on the road, will be a major issue again this year. So far the Sabres are 1-2, most recently letting a big lead slip away in a 5-4 OT loss in Calgary. With the weekend off to prepare for another road game in Philadelphia next Wednesday, we think the visitors have a letdown tonight. Play on the CANUCKS. AAA Sports |
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10-20-16 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Minnesota Wild. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense: This is the second game of a back-to-back for the young Maple Leafs, who let a 4-0 lead slip away to the Winnipeg Jets last night and eventually falling 5-4 in OT. With a game in Chicago on Saturday night, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “letdown/lookahead” spot for the visitors. The Wild are 2-1 to start the year, falling 2-1 to the Blues on Opening Night, before back-to-back wins over the Jets and Kings. Starting on Saturday the team embarks on its first major road trip of the season, which clearly puts added emphasis on tonight’s contest. The bottom line: The overwhelming situational factors working in favor of the WILD tonight makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. AAA Sports |
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10-18-16 | Avalanche v. Capitals -210 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. REASONING: We have no issues laying chalk in the correct “situation.” Colorado has opened the season with two straight one-goal victories, holding on for a 6-5 win over Dallas at home in its opener, before last night’s 4-3 OT victory at defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh last night. This one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot and the opportunistic Washington Capitals will look to take full advantage. Washington lost to Pittsburgh 3-2 in a shootout on Opening night, before then rebounding for a 2-1 win at home over the Islanders two nights later. THE BOTTOM LINE: As primarily a situationally based handicapping services, these are exactly the types of scenarios that we’re contstantly on the look out for. This one sets up perfectly and makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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10-17-16 | Senators v. Red Wings -134 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Detroit Red Wings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense. We’re primarily a situationally based handicapping service and there’s no question that this one sets up perfectly for us. And the price is definitely fantastic considering how motivated Detroit will be here. The Wings have opened the season with two straight losses, a 6-4 setback at Tampa Bay, followed by a 4-1 loss in Florida. Now Detroit returns home in a foul mood and looking to take out their frustrations on the Senators. Ottawa on the other hand comes in contented after its 2-0 start. First the Sens beat the Leafs 5-4 in OT on opening night, then they held on for a 4-3 shootout victory over the rival Habs three nights later. Now the team hits the road for the first time this season and will try to not get caught “looking ahead” to its game at home against the Coyotes tomorrow night. The bottom line: The stage is set for a convincing lop-sided victory from wire-to-wire. Play on the RED WINGS. AAA Sports |
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10-13-16 | Canadiens -105 v. Sabres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EXPRESS on the Montreal Canadiens. Setting the scene: The Habs were tops in the league after two months last year, but an injury to starting goaltender Carey Price would be devasting for the team. The Sabres took a small step forward last year and are looking to continue the progression this season, but we think this Opening Night matchup favors the visitors. Montreal: Price is back. Last year he was 10-2 with a 2.06 GAA. But it’s going to be Al Montoya to get the start between the pipes. He finished 12-7-3 with a 2.18 GAA in Florida last year and has gone 3-0-2 with a 2.12 GAA lifetime against the Sabres. The offense finished ranked 16th last year and got a nice upgrade in the offseason with the addition of Alexander Radulov. Buffalo: Despite a decent season from Jack Eichel, who led the Sabres with 24 goals and 56 points overall, Buffalo finished 25th in the league in scoring at just 2.43 GPG. Defensively the team was in the middle of the pack, allowing 2.62 GPG, ranked 15th overall. In goal for Buffalo is Robin Lehner, who was 5-14 with a 2.47 GAA in 21 games last season (note that he’s 2-2-3 with a 2.92 GAA in his career vs the Canadiens). The bottom line: Both Eichel and top points getter Ryan O’Reilly are sidelined for the home side, which doesn’t bode well in facing Montoya, a guy who has had their number each time he’s faced them. We have a hard time seeing the home side matching pace with the deeper and more talented Canadiens. Play on MONTREAL. AAA Sports |
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06-09-16 | Sharks v. Penguins -148 | 4-2 | Loss | -148 | 33 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh has San Jose’s number in the Finals and with a chance to close it out and win the Stanley Cup on home ice, we’re going to lay the price and expect another beatdown once it’s all said and done. The Sharks’ top line has been shutdown by the Pens and its role players have been unable to step up and contribute. Pittsburgh on the other hand is getting consistent production up and down its lines and is clearly getting the better goaltending as well. Nothing is going to change tonight. We’re expecting the home side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes as it looks to seal the deal. Don’t be surprised to see either (or both), Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby having big games in this biggest of moments. This line should be a lot higher in our estimation, lay it with confidence. Play on the PENGUINS. AAA Sports |
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06-06-16 | Penguins v. Sharks -130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD BATH on the San Jose Sharks. We had the Sharks in Game 3 and obviously feel a bit lucky to have earned the win after Pittsburgh outshot San Jose 41-27, but with that victory under its belt, we look for the home side to keep the momentum rolling and to produce its best effort of the series. It could be the Sharks with the 2-1 lead at this point, as all three games so far have been decided by a single goal. And all three have been decided in the final three minutes of regulation or in OT. The bottom line is, these teams are very evenly matched, but note that San Jose is already 2-1 (+1 units) this postseason when trailing in a playoff series. Momentum is a funny thing and with another victory, the Sharks will be rolling as this series shifts back to Pittsburgh. In our opinion, the value is just too good to turn down on the home side, play on SAN JOSE. AAA Sports |
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06-04-16 | Penguins v. Sharks -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* NHL GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Jose Sharks. If you’re wagering on the NHL at this time of year, then you likely already know all about these teams. Pittsburgh was the hottest club from the half-way point on and has pretty much looked unstoppable throughout the postseason, although it would need seven games to dispatch the Lightning in the Conference round. The Pens would take Game’s 1 and 2 in front of the home town crowd, so now the onus has fallen onto San Jose to respond in kind. The Sharks have also looked fantastic in the postseason, and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t bounce back here. We primarily base our picks on “situations” and “motivation.” This is a great situational play, as Pittsburgh is set up for a classic letdown after two straight 1-goal victories at home. Conversely, it’s do-or-die for San Jose, clearly a 3-0 hole would be too much for it overcome. And for us it’s as simple as that, this is a great price on a team which will literally be risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to try and secure the victory. Play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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05-24-16 | Penguins -130 v. Lightning | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* FAN APPRECIATION SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Pittsburgh Penguins. No need to overanlayze this one, it’s do or die for the Penguins, who were the best team after the All Star break and through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Pittsburgh had a 2-0 lead half-way through Game 5, before then imploding and allowing the Lightning to score four goals in the eventual 4-3 setback. But remember, Tampa Bay beat the New York Rangers on the road to take a 3-2 lead in last year's conference finals and then they returned home and were crushed 7-3 in Game 6 (note that Pittsburgh is already 2-0 this year when trailing in a playoff series). Play on the PENGUINS. AAA Sports |
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05-22-16 | Lightning v. Penguins -200 | 4-3 | Loss | -200 | 34 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Lightning got the job done in Game 4, they jumped out to an early lead, put the foot on the gas and managed to hold on for the 5-4 victory, despite letting the Penguins score four goals in the third period. Simply put, we can’t see Tampa Bay duplicating that amazing effort on the road in Pittsburgh vs. the high-powered and now revenge minded Penguins. Both teams are deep, both teams have received world-class goaltending and each are a couple of the best on special team’s. All that being said though, the Bolts are still without their best players in leading goal scorer Steven Stamkos and goaltender Ben Bishop. The Penguins were the best team in the league after the All Star break and their play in front of the home town crowd is a big reason why. In our opinion, all signs point to an epic one-sided blowout, lay the price with confidence on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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05-20-16 | Penguins -140 v. Lightning | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Lightning steam-rolled their way over the New York Islanders in five games in the last round, as they got some superb goaltending from Ben Bishop, as well as some production from all of its lines to cap off the commanding series victory. Tampa Bay took Game 1 of this series despite being outshot, but has since dropped back-to-back contests to the surging Penguins and all signs point to another letdown tonight. The Lightning are expected to once again be without the services of goaltender Bishop due to injury as well as regular season leading scorer Steven Stamkos (if they do somehow miraculously suit up to play, clearly neither will be at 100% capacity). The Pens depth will be just too much for the wounded Bolts to handle today and with Matt Murray posting a 2.00 GAA in the playoffs, all signs point to the visitors finding a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Note that Pittsburgh is already 4-2 (+1.4) units in the playoffs when leading in a series, while Tampa Bay is just 6-8 (-2.7 units) this season when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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05-17-16 | Sharks +115 v. Blues | Top | 4-0 | Win | 115 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Jose Sharks. We played the Blues in Game 1, but we think the Sharks bounce back in Game 2. St. Louis continues to get fantastic goaltending from Brian Elliot, he’d step up big once again in his team’s 2-1 victory in Game 1, but we think he’ll have his hands full with this hungry San Jose team tonight. The Sharks know that history is against them and they’ll be eager to reverse their fortunes as they are 0-5 in series following a seven-game series victory. But after the seven game series win over the Predators, a letdown in Game 1 was not a shocker whatsoever. We think San Jose returns to form tonight. The Sharks actually finished as the best road team in league during the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs so far, as they lost all three in Nashville. San Jose was 0-3 on the power play in Game 1, but note that it had converted on a whopping 30.9 percent of its man advantage chances previous to that and had scored a total of 16 goals in the last four games vs. the Predators. Note that San Jose is 31-15 (+15 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while St. Louis is already just 1-5 (-5.2 units) when leading in a playoff series. Play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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05-16-16 | Lightning +175 v. Penguins | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Ben Bishop twisted his knee half way through the first period of Game 1 and backup Andrei Vasilevskiy came in to stop 25 of the 26 shots he faced in the Lightning’s eventual 3-1 victory. Whether Bishop comes back or Vasilevskiy is pressed into the start, we love Tampa Bay to duplicate its masterful Game 1 performance and to head home with a 2-0 lead. The Lightning’s defense was the difference maker once again, pushing the Penguin’s opportunistic offense to the perimeter and keeping Sidney Crosby and company from generating pressure in front of the net. Tampa did the same thing to John Tavares and the Islanders in the second round. Also note, Vasilevskiy would fill in for an injurd Bishop in Game 2 of the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals and became the first netminder to earn a win in relief during a Cup Final in more than 80 years (he also started Game 4 of the series and played extremely well in the 2-1 loss). Note that the Lightning are 15-8 (+3 units) this season when playing with two days rest, while the Penguins are just 12-13 (-4.6 units) in the same position. Tampa Bay has been underestimated throughout the playoffs because of the absence of leading scorer Steven Stamkos, but has gotten significant production from its younger players and all signs point to another upset here. Play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports |
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05-15-16 | Sharks v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 57 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the St. Louis Blues. Neither team has ever won a Stanley Cup. San Jose was the best road team in the league in the regular season, but so far that’s not been the case in the playoffs as it would lose all three outings away from friendly confines in its extended seven game series vs. the Predators. These teams are very evenly matched, getting balanaced scoring up and down their lines, receiving world class goaltending, while also both possessing some of the best special team’s units in the league. In our opinion, this is a great situational play as St. Louis has had a couple extra days off to prepare and heal up for this one. Note that the Sharks are just 4-5 (-3.4 units) this year after shutting out their opponent, while the Blues are 20-11 (+5 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game. We’re banking on ST. LOUIS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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05-13-16 | Lightning v. Penguins -165 | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pittsburgh Penguins were the hottest team down the stretch, but lost all three regular season contests to the Lightning. It’s payback time tonight as we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. Both teams are very evenly matched, getting big production through all four lines and solid goaltending. Home ice advantage is going to be crucial this evening in our opinion though, note that the Lightning are just 12-22 their last 34 road games following a win by two goals or more and just 16-26 their last 42 road games after scoring four goals or more in their previous outings. In what should prove to be a long and entertaining series, we look for the home side to protect home ice and take Game 1, play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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05-10-16 | Capitals v. Penguins -130 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Pittsburgh Penguins. With a chance to finally put away the Capitals, we’re expecting the home side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far it’s been an exciting series as these two teams are very evenly matched. They are both getting superb goaltending and each has been sharp with special teams. Home ice is the difference today though, the Pens have already won two in Pittsburgh in this series and we think they’ll once again ride the wave of emotion. Also note that from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this as Pittsburgh is 14-5 (+8.1 units) this season following a loss by two goals or more. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value,” play on the PENGUINS. AAA Sports |
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05-09-16 | Sharks -105 v. Predators | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the San Jose Sharks. With a chance to put away the pesky Predators and advance to the conference finals for a third time since 2009, we look for the Sharks to continue their strong play and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. San Jose averages 2.9 goals per game, while Nashville averages 2.7. The Sharks score on 22.5 percent of their power plays, while the Predators at 19.7. San Jose allows 2.5 GPG, Nashville 2.6. So far home ice has been the difference in this series, but we think that changes tonight. San Jose is 31-11-2 on the road this year, this is a team that knows how to get the job done away from friendly confines. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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05-07-16 | Predators v. Sharks -155 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the San Jose Sharks. So far this series has been all about home ice and we look for that trend to continue today. San Jose jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, before Nashville returned the favor by taking care of business in its own barn. The Sharks have been the better team in this series though, they outshot the Predators for a third time in the series in Game 4. And note that San Jose has limited Nashville to one power-play goal in 19 chances in the last eight meetings at home, including the first two in this series. We’re laying the price and counting on “home ice” to prove pivotal once again, play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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04-30-16 | Islanders +142 v. Lightning | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Islanders. We had a play on the Isles on the PUCK LINE in Game 1, but would not even need the extra 1.5 goals of insurance in the end as New York would skate away with an easy 5-3 victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a similar type beatdown in Game 2. Ben Bishop failed to make it through a start vs. the Islanders for a second straight time in Wednesday’s opener, giving up four goals on 13 shots. Bishop is now 1-3-0 with a 5.00 GAA in four starts vs. New York this year. The Isles have the Lightning’s number, they’ve won five of the last six in the series and John Tavares has four of his club’s 25 goals in that stretch and four assists: “The team obviously that loses the game, I think always knows how important the next one is and not to lose two in a row," Tavares said. "We obviously expect their best, and we obviously want to raise our game, take it to another level and build off the first one." The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the ISLANDERS. AAA Sports |
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04-29-16 | Predators v. Sharks -160 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the San Jose Sharks. For this particular play, we’re going to use some common sense. Sometimes “rest can lead to rust,” but in this case, we don’t think that will be the case. Nashville is coming off an emotional, but extremely draining seven-game opening round victory over the Anaheim Ducks and is primed for a classic letdown here. The Sharks on the other hand have had a few days off to heal up and prepare after dispatching the Kings in five games, the only loss was an OT decision. For us, there’s no need to break down individual player matchups or talk about the men between the pipes, this is a great “situational” play. The situational factors working in favor of San Jose justifying laying what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price in Game 1. Play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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04-24-16 | Capitals -150 v. Flyers | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Washington Capitals. Washington went up 3-0 in this series and then for some reason took the foot off the gas and has allowed the Flyers to steal the next two. With a chance to finish this opening round series though, we think the “better” team finally shows up today and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Philadelphia made a goaltender change after Game 3, benching Steve Mason in favor of Michal Neuvirth, who has been up to the challenge so far, stopping 44 shots in Friday’s 2-0 win. It was a great individual performance, but we don’t expect lightning to strike a third time tonight; note that the Flyers in fact managed only 11 shots in Game 5, the fewest in club history in the regular season and playoffs. After allowing the Rangers to come back from a 3-1 deficit in last year’s playoffs, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Capitals tonight. Also note, Washington has been getting steady goaltending throughout this series, Braden Holtby has stopped 123 of 128 shots (and further note that Holtby owns a 1.97 GAA in 20 career playoff games on the road). Enough is enough, look for WASHINGTON to finally lay the hammer down in Game 6. AAA Sports |
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04-23-16 | Predators v. Ducks -160 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Anaheim Ducks. After inexplicably dropping the first two games of this series in front of the home town crowd, the Ducks would bounce back in Games 3 and 4 in Nashville. So far home ice advantage hasn’t meant much in this series, but all signs point to that trend ending tonight as Anaheim looks to build off the momentum that it’s stolen back. The biggest reason behind the Ducks turnaround? Clearly it was the switch in net before Game 3, Frederik Andersen made 27 saves in a 3-0 win in that contest, before then stopping 30 in a 4-1 victory on Thursday. Andersen is a near-perfect 6-1-0 with a 2.18 GAA and .932 save percentage in seven career starts vs. Nashville, including wins in both at home. Conversely, Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne has regressed, he’d go on to allow seven total goals on 46 shots in Games 3 and 4. Also note that Nashville was 0 for 11 with the man advantage at home. All signs point to another lop-sided destruction, lay the price with confidence on ANAHEIM. AAA Sports |
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04-22-16 | Islanders v. Panthers -155 | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EXPRESS on the Florida Panthers. This series is tied 2-2, obviously home ice advantage is crucial is in this situation and we feel it’ll be one of the deciding factors once the final horn blares. These teams are evenly matched across the board, although the Isles struggle on the penalty kill, one area that Florida has a definite advantage in. Note that New York is 9-13 (-5.9 units) in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. We’re going to give the Panthers’ Roberto Luongo the edge over the Isles’ Greiss and think Florida’s aggressive attack will once again be too much for New York to handle tonight. Play on the PANTHERS. AAA Sports |
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04-19-16 | Blues v. Blackhawks -155 | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Chicago Blackhawks. It’s basically do-or-die for the league’s point leaders tonight after they fell 3-2 at home on Sunday. The Blues actually trailed 2-1 entering the third period, but rallied late to pull of the upset. Amazingly, the last five games between these teams have been decided by one goal and four of them have gone St. Louis’ way. The goaltenders are a “wash,” but note that Chicago is 9-2 (+7.3 units) in its last 11 when trailing in a playoff series, while St. Louis is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in its last four when leading in a playoff series. No need to overanalyze this one, expect CHICAGO to bounce back and take care of business in its own barn. AAA Sports |
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04-18-16 | Capitals -145 v. Flyers | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show | |
8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Washington Capitals. The President Cup Trophy winners can smell the blood in the water and we look for them to take care of business once again here. Washington has a comfortable 2-0 lead, anchored by the great play of goaltender Braden Holtby, who made 41 saves in Game 2’s 4-1 win after making 19 in Thursday’s Game 1 shutout. There’s no way that the Capitals will take the foot off the gas in this one, not after blowing a 2-0 lead to the Rangers in the first round in 2013 and then giving up a 3-1 edge to the Rangers in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals. Note that Washington is 8-1 (+7.2 units) this year after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia is just 10-11 (-2.4 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. This will be a lop-sided affair from start to finish, play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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04-17-16 | Predators v. Ducks -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Anaheim Ducks. We have to admit that we were pretty surprised at how great Nashville looked in Game 1, jumping out to an early lead, only to give up two goals, but then battling back and holding on for the 3-2 victory. We were also a little surprised at how complacent the normally defensive minded Ducks looked overall. With that debacle fully in the rear-view mirror though, we look for Anaheim to come out firing and to find a way to get the job done in what has essentially become a do-or-die for the Ducks. There’s no way that Anaheim wants to go back to Nashville in a 2-0 hole obviously, suffice it to say we’re expecting this high-powered team to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes in an attempt to salvage the split. At the other end of the spectrum are the contented Predators, who accomplished what they wanted and who now have home ice advantage despite what happens in tonight’s game. No need to overanalyze this one, we’re going to back the more desperate/hungry side, play on the DUCKS. AAA Sports |
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04-15-16 | Predators v. Ducks -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* CUSTOMER APPRECIATION ROUT on the Anaheim Ducks. These two teams are very similar in many respects and their season’s almost paralleled each other as well, with both using mid-season surges to propel itself into the postseason. "They're really strong down the middle," Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau said of his opponent. "We think with (Ryan) Getzlaf, (Ryan) Kesler and (Nate) Thompson, we feel we're very strong down the middle. It'll be a very interesting contest there." The Ducks though finished the regular season as the top defensive club in the league, so we’re giving a big nod to goaltender John Gibson over Pekka Rinne in this matchup. Gibson was 21-17 2.07 GAA on the year, including 13-10 with a 1.80 GAA in front of the home town crowd (note that he’s also 1-0 with a 2.00 vs. Nashville). They say defense wins championships and ANAHEIM enters the postseason as No. 1 in that category, lay the price. AAA Sports |
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04-14-16 | Islanders v. Panthers -137 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -137 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Florida Panthers. Both teams come in hot, but we feel that home ice advantage will be pivotal in this series and look for the Panthers to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. John Tavares led New York with 33 goals, with seven others scoring at least ten on the year for New York. The Isles will be without the services of Jaroslav Halak for at least the entire first round, so getting the call between the pipes will Thomas Greiss, who was 9-8 with a 2.51 GAA on the road, but who is just 1-2 with a 3.29 GAA vs. Florida. Note the Greiss has never made a playoff start. After a three year hiatus, the Panthers are back in the postseason thanks in large part to a strong 25-16 showing in front of the home town crowd. Aleksander Barkov led the way in scoring with 28 goals on the year, while Reilly Smith and Vincent Trocheck had 25. Veteran Jaromir Jagr had 27 goals. The Panthers turn to Roberto Luongo in net, he was 21-11 with a 2.48 GAA in front of the home town crowd this season (note that Luongo owns a 2.62 GAA lifetime vs. the Isles). We’re giving Luongo the big nod in net and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side today, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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04-13-16 | Blackhawks v. Blues -119 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
8* play on St. Louis Blues. We like the hungry Blues to defend their home ice in the opener of this Western Conference playoff series. St. Louis comes into the postseason at 100% health across the board. The Blues would take three of the five in the season series from the Blackhawks. After getting eliminated in the first round in three straight years, expect a monumental effort from the home side tonight. Chicago comes into the playoffs down Duncan Keith, who has to finish a six-game suspension for high-sticking Minnesota’s Charlie Coyle. Blues’ netminder Brian Elliot would post three consecutive shutouts in mid-March. Hawks goaltender Corey Crawrod posted a 1.98 GAA and .935 save percentage in beating St. Louis in the 2014 NHL playoffs, but he missed an entire month with an upper body injury to finish the season, returning for the the last regular season game of the year. At almost a “pick-em,” ST. LOUIS is the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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04-13-16 | Rangers +130 v. Penguins | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
8* play on New York Rangers. The Penguins went on a three weak tear to end the season, but the Rangers enter the playoffs hot as well. We think there’s an upset a brewin in the opener of this Eastern Conference playoff series. Forget about what happened in the regular season, the playoffs are here now. Pittsburgh goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been superb this year, but he’s dealing with his second concussion in less that four months and hasn’t even played since March 31st. If Fleury is unable to go, then the home side turns to the lightly used Jeff Zatkoff, a third string goaltender, thrust into the second spot after Matt Murray suffered a concussion over the weekend in Philadelphia. We’ll give the big nod in net to the Rangers’ Henrk Lundqvist, whose 2.48 GAA was the highest of his already storied career. Lundqvist has consistently been at his best vs. Pittsburgh as well, having allowed two goals in a game just once in the previous two playoff meetings. The value is too good to turn down here, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-13-16 | Red Wings v. Lightning -148 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
8* play on Tampa Bay Lightning. We think home ice advantage will prove to be a big factor in this series. Despite being down star Steven Stamkos, we feel that the Lightning are the better team across the board. Detroit on the other hand had to once again battle tooth and nail to even make it into the postseason, doing so in the final week. Tampa’s goaltender Ben Bishop was pivotal in the team’s run to the Stanley Cup Final last year and he is a Vezina Trophy candidate this season. The Wings will start veteran netminder Jimmy Howard; after getting beat out earlier in the year by Petr Mrazek, Howard earned his starting role back as the season progressed. Keep your eyes on Tyler Johnson, who scored six goals and had an assist in Tampa Bay’s four wins in the first round vs. the Wings last year. Detroit expended so much energy to just make it to this point, that a letdown is now inevitable (at least in this first game). Note that Detroit has followed a similar pattern of late, getting eliminated in its opening round in three of the past four years, after struggling to make a playoff spot. Play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports |
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04-03-16 | Wild -140 v. Jets | 1-5 | Loss | -140 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Wild. Minneosta needs some wins and some help to clinch a plyaoff spot. It’ll be playing its most desperate hockey of the entire season today, looking to avoid a third straight loss and a fourth straight in this series. Jets’ goalie Michael Hutchinson has somehow managed success against the Wild in the past, but he has just four wins in his last 25 games. Winnipeg comes in with zero momentum and nothing to play for following a four-game slide. No need to overanalyz this one, it’s do-or-die for the visitors. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great ilne value.” Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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03-24-16 | Kings -163 v. Jets | 1-4 | Loss | -163 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that LA is 9-2 (+6.7 units) in its last 11 following back-to-back losses in which its managed to score less than three goals in either game (lost 5-2 at Nashville and 2-1 at Minnesota), while Winnipeg is a horrible 13-22 (-7.6 units) when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: Motivation levels will be through the roof for the visitors, who can ill afford to drop another “cream puff” on their schedule as they battle tooth and nail to the playoffs. All things considered, the price is right on this one, play on the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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03-22-16 | Sabres v. Hurricanes -155 | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s do-or-die essentially for the Carolina Hurricanes, who must basically win out to have any shot at making the postseason. The Canes will be playing with desperation today as they look to break a four game slide and a season sweep from the visiting Sabres. Four straight losses have seen OT in two and then a shootout against Minnesota on Saturday. Carolina sits seven points out of the final wild-card spot and needs to leap-frog three other teams to claim it. The Sabres of course have been all over the map as far as their night-to-night consistency is concerned, they come into this one off a 4-1 loss at Toronto and haven’t scored a power play goal in five road games (are just 1 for 31 in their last ten road contests). Carolina has killed all five Sabres penalties this year and is 42 of 46 in its last 19 games overall. Motivation at this time of year is an important factor to take into consideration. Play on CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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03-21-16 | Flyers v. Islanders -138 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Islanders. This is a great spot bet, the Isles have lost three straight and five of their last six, including a 3-0 shutout setback to the Stars last time out. The Isles now sit in fourth in their division, despite still being one of the highest scoring teams in the league. To say motivation levels will be high for the Islanders tonight would be a bit of an understatement. New York will also be out to avenge a 4-0 setback to the Flyers at the beginning of January. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered as well as New York has only played two games on Long Island since February 19th, winning both to extend a seven-game point streak there. The Isles still control their playoff destiny, they hold the East’s first wild card spot with 85 points with 12 games remaining, while the Flyers are out of postseason contention right now in ninth spot with 80. Philadelphia had been on quite a role, averaging 3.6 goals over a 10-2-2 stretch, before coming out flat in Saturday’s 4-1 home loss to the Penguins, posting a season-lpw 17 shots. Momentum is extremely difficult to gain and once lost, is even harder to get back. We think this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. We’ll call the goaltenders a “wash” in this one, but the mountain of situational factors working in favor of the Islanders definitely tips the scales towards the home side. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ISLANDERS. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | Ducks -160 v. Jets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Anaheim is 18-8 (+6.6 units) after a non-conference game this season, 12-5 (+5.4 units) after playing three consecutive home games and 23-11 (+6 units) vs. teams with losing records, while Winnipeg is 9-17 (-8.6 units) this year following a divisional contest and only 13-21 (-6.6 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: This is an important game for the Ducks, who will look to get the start of their lenghty road trip started off on the “right foot.” Lay the price with confidence on ANAHEIM. AAA Sports |
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03-18-16 | Blackhawks -155 v. Jets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Chicago Blackhawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Blackhawks made a bunch of different moves at the trade deadline in hopes to bolster their line-up and make another serious run at the Stanley Cup, but so far they have not paid off as the team comes into this one having lost four straight. Chicago will also be without starting goaltender Corey Crawford tonight. None of this matters in our opinion, the Jets are already looking forward to the offseason and we fully expect the Hawks to risk life and limb today as they try to break the losing streak and get back on track as the playoffs approach.: “We're headed into a stretch here where we've got 11 games left and we've lost four in a row," said Patrick Kane last night. "Obviously, not the stretch we want. I don't want to say it's panic time, but at the same time we have to shore things up before playoffs come into play here." ATS statistics: Note that Chicago is 23-6 (+16.6 units) this season after a non-conference game and 22-10 (+6.8 units) vs. teams with losing records, while Winnipeg is just 10-16 (-4.1 units) vs. division opponents this year and 13-20 (-5.6 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: All things considered, we feel this is an awesome price. Play on the BLACKHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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03-14-16 | Kings v. Blackhawks -130 | 5-0 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Blackhawks. We don’t think there is any need to overanalyze this one, as it definitely sets up nice for the Blackhawks and there’s no question that the price is right as well. Chicago will be the more motivated, it dropped two straight on the road and returns home to face the Kings, a team which it lost 3-2 in OT to back on November 28th. LA had its two game win streak snapped in 2-1 OT loss to New Jersey at home and with a game tomorrow night in Dallas, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that one. LA is definitely moving into a difficult part of its schedule. All signs do indeed point to CHICAGO as the sharp move in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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03-14-16 | Panthers v. Islanders -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the New York Islanders. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key common sense factors: Motivation levels: After four straight victories, the Isles have lost two in a row. They also lost to Florida 5-1 on December 15th. With a three-game road trip starting in Pittsburgh tomorrow night, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Islanders this evening and we’re fully expecting this focus and determination to translate into production on the ice. Florida on the other hand is coming off back-to-back victories at home, including an extremely satisfying come-from-behind 5-4 shootout win over the Flyers on Saturday. With a game tomorrow night in Montreal, not only does this set up as classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, but it’s also a “look-ahead” scenario as well. Advantage New York. ATS statistics: Note that Florida is just 2-6 (-3.4 units) in its last eight following back-to-back home victories in which its scored five goals or more, while the Isles are 6-3 (+2.7 units) in trying to revenge a loss in which they fell by four or more goals. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one, strong motivational, situational and trend based factors, along with what we deem to be an extremely reasonable line, all combine to make the ISLANDERS the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-12-16 | Maple Leafs v. Senators -169 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Ottawa Senators. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Home sweet home: Ottawa has taken the first three of this season series and it’s totaled 15 goals in winning three straight at home over the Leafs. The Sens will be especially motivated here as well after falling to 0-2-1 following a 6-2 setback on Florida on Thursday. They’ll also be out to avoid matching a season-worst four-game home slide: “I think we all know that we're going to have to win games to give ourselves a chance and it's going to force us to do things sometimes that you normally don't do," defenseman Erik Karlsson said. Looking ahead to next year: The Leafs come in contented, they just broke an 0-5-1 slide with a 4-3 shootout win over the Islanders on Wednesday; note that Toronto has already turned to its younger players to give them a shot in the big leagues. The bottom line: We see no need to overanalyze this one; Toronto is simply going through the motions at this point, while Ottawa is still in the playoff hunt and will be looking to atone for a couple of poor performances. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on OTTAWA. AAA Sports |
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03-11-16 | Flyers v. Lightning -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Lightning. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Motivation levels: Tampa has lost two straight, including a 4-2 setback at Philadelphia just last week. That was then followed with a 1-0 OT loss at Boston the next night. And with a five game road trip starting on Saturday night, we think it’s safe to say that the Bolts will be risking life and limb in trying to secure this victory today. Classic letdown spot: The Flyers have been playing great, they’ve won five of their last six, but with a game tomorrow night in Florida, all signs do indeed point to a letdown spot for the visitors in this one (Note that Philadelphia has totaled 14 goals during an 0-6-2 skid at Tampa). ATS statistics: Note that Philadelphia is just 6-8 (-2.8 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while Tampa Bay is 31-17 (+10.6 units) in its last 48 when playing with two or more days of rest. The bottom line: When taking into account all of the situational, motivational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the LIGHTNING today, it’s amazing to us that this line is as affordable as it is. AAA Sports |
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03-10-16 | Jets v. Red Wings -190 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 7* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Red Wings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: Detroit has made 24 consecutive playoff trips, but with losses in seven of its last ten, that string of postseason success is in jeopardy. The Wings will be risking lie and limb today as they look to avoid a fourth-straight regulation loss for the first time in four years. "We have to be playing with more urgency," captain Henrik Zetterberg assessed last night. "We all know what's at stake here and it's getting closer and closer. We've got some games left. We know what we've got to do and we just got to do it." Brutal power-play: The Wings have had issues with their penalty-kill, but a date vs. the toothless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Winnipeg owns one of the NHL’s worst power-play units, converting just 15.6 percent of its opportunities and it’s just two for 25 with the man advantage over its last eight games. Revenge: Detroit lost to Winnipeg 4-1 on December 29th and has lost four of the last five in the series. The bottom line: Three strong sets of factors combine to make this a price that we can live with paying; play on the RED WINGS. AAA Sports |
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03-09-16 | Capitals v. Kings -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the LA Kings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge spot: The Kings will be out to avenge a 3-1 loss in the nation’s capital on February 16th. Formers Kings’ players Justin Williams and Mike Richards were both in the Capitals’ lineup for that victory and they’ll now be back in LA for the first time since signing with Washington. We’re fully expecting the home side to risk life and limb today in trying to even the score. Home sweet home: The Kings have won five straight in this series in front of the home town crowd. LA also comes in with plenty of momentum after winning for the sixth time in eight games with a 5-1 victory over the Canucks on Monday (note that in all six victories in the eight-game run the Kings have given up two or fewer goals). Classic letdown spot: Washington has been among the league’s best all year, but a small letdown after beating the Bruins 2-1 in OT on Saturday and the Ducks in a 2-1 shootout on Monday, would not be shocking in this position. The bottom line: Three great situational factors collide and when coupled with what we feel to be an extremely favorable line, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-07-16 | Sharks -158 v. Flames | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* REVENGE ASSASSIN on the San Jose Sharks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Brutal GAA: The Flames are tied with Arizona for the NHL’s worst goals-against average at 3.12. San Jose has feasted on Calgary already this year, scoring five times in three of four meetings this season, its 17 goals vs. the Flames is the most against it in a season since 1997. Note that Calgary has in fact given up at least five goals three times in a four-game stretch before Saturday’s 4-2 win at Pittsburgh which snapped a seven-game slide. Poor play between the pipes has also played a major part in Calgary’s spiral down the proverbial crapper, as Jonas Hiller has posted a deplorable 4.71 GAA while losing his last three starts. Hiller would give up five goals in his only start vs. the Sharks this year on November 28th. Precise power-play: The Sharks have been spectacular with the man-advantage vs. the Flames this season, converting on seven of 15 chances. And that’s bad news for a Calgary penalty kill unit which has allowed a league-worst 19 power-play goals since February 9th. Spectacular goaltending: Sharks’ goaltender Marin Jones has posted a 1.67 GAA in winning his last three starts and is 3-1-0 lifetime vs. the Flames. The bottom line: These two teams are moving in opposite directions, in our opinion the price is right in this one. Play on SAN JOSE. AAA Sports |
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03-04-16 | Devils v. Stars -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Stars. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of common sense factors: Scheduling: New Jersey played and won 5-4 in OT at Nashville just last night. That satisfying victory snapped a three-game losing slide. Suffice it to say, there’s no doubt in our minds that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the suddenly contended visitors. Revenge: Dallas lost 3-2 in TO to New Jersey on January 2nd. Ultra-motivated home side: After four straight losses and dropping seven of their last eight, it will be all hands on deck for the home side today as it desperately tries to break the slide. ATS statistics: Note that New Jersey is just 20-29 (-7.6 units) in its last 29 when playing on back-to-back days, while Dallas is 10-5 (+4.6 units) after allowing four goals or more. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one, all signs do indeed point to the STARS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-03-16 | Oilers v. Flyers -160 | 4-0 | Loss | -160 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Philadelphia Flyers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge spot: The Flyers lost 4-2 to the Oilers on November 3rd. Inept offense: Edmonton has gone 5-8-2 since Connor McDavid returned to the line and is averaging just 1.9 goals over its last 13 contests. Classic letdown spot: The Oilers have won two straight, we think this young team comes in a bit complacent tonight. Still in the playoff hunt: The Flyers have earned at least one point in six of seven games and are undefeated halfway through a season-high six-game home stand: "When the whole team is on the same page it just makes everybody's (job) much easier," said Philly center Claude Giroux . "Right now we're playing some good hockey 'cause we're playing hard. We're playing the right way. We need to keep playing like this." If history is any precedence: The Flyers have to be loving their chances in being able to avenge the earlier setback to Edmonton this season as the Oilers have tallied just four goals during a three-game losing streak in Philadelphia. The bottom line: This one means a lot more to the FLYERS, we look for them to come in focused on the task at hand and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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03-01-16 | Flames v. Bruins -200 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Bruins. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of common sense factors: Scheduling: It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the Flames are going to be really tired here after falling 5-3 in Philadelphia just last night, a contest which they led 1-0 half way through the second period. That’s now five straight losses for Calgary and with games at Buffalo and at Pittsburgh before the weekend, it’s not too hard to imagine the team getting caught looking ahead to this gruelling part of its schedule. Revenge: The Bruins lost 5-4 in OT to Calgary on December 4th. And after a listless 4-1 loss to the Lightning last time out, this sets up perfectly for the home side to bounce back in (and with games at home vs. Chicago and Washington later in the week, tonight’s contest definitely takes on added importance). ATS statistics: Note that Calgary is a miserable 3-6 (-2.6 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Boston is 10-7 (+3.4 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one, the odds are stacked in favor of the home side here, in our professional opinion this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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02-27-16 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens -175 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Rhythm coming back: Montreal has earned five points in three games after handing the Capitals a 4-3 home loss on Wednesday. While the postseason still remains a long shot, a date vs. the hapless Leafs is just what the doctor ordered to keep their hopes alive as the Habs have won nine straight in the series. Montreal goaltender Mike Condon: Condon has a 1.90 GAA in his last three games. Recent history: Toronto hasn’t scored more than three goals in any contest over its 0-5-4 stretch in the series. Note that the Leafs have scored just nine goals and gone 0 for 19 on the power play during an 0-3-2 skid in Montreal. And that’s bad news, as the Habs come in red hot on special teams right now, having killed off 21 of 24 penalties over their last nine. Playing out the rest of the season: Toronto has already traded Dion Phaneuf, Nick Spalin, Roman Polak and Shawn Matthias. Also note that key forwards Joffrey Lupus and James van Riemsdyk will not be returning this season due to injury. ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just 1-14 (-12.8 units) vs. the division this season, while Montreal is 12-7 (+3.8 units) in the same position. The bottom line: It’s basically do or die for the HABS until the end of the season, we look for the better team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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02-25-16 | Hurricanes -129 v. Maple Leafs | 1-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Carolina Hurricanes. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Surging visitors: The Hurricanes come into this one playing their best hockey of the season, they just beat Philadelphia 3-1 on Tuesday and are 5-2-2 over a span which has seen them total 27 goals. Superior goaltending: Carolina net minder Cam Ward is 9-4-4 with a 1.84 GAA and .930 save percentage dating back to December 18th. Note that Ward has been particularly dominant vs. the Leafs throughout his career as well, limiting them to a goal in his last three match-ups as part of a 7-2-1 stretch with a 1.68 GAA and .941 save percentage. Recent history: The Hurricanes are 22-7-2 since losing three of four to Toronto back in 2006. Over a 5-0-1 stretch in the series, Carolina has outscored the Leafs 18-5. And that’s bad news for a Toronto team which has been shelled for 36 goals during a 1-6-1 span. Brutal goaltending: The Leafs’ Jonathan Bernier is winless over a seven start stretch, going 0-5-0 with a horrible 3.92 GAA and .872 save percentage. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on CAROLINA. AAA Sports |