02-23-16 |
Blue Jackets v. Red Wings -189 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Red Wings. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Columbus is just 7-17 (-10.1 units) this year after allowing four goals or more and only 6-8 (-1.3 units) when playing on back-to-back days, while Detroit is 4-2 (+2.4 units) this season after three or more consecutive losses. The bottom line: It’s a perfect spot wager, off their big win just last night we look for the Jackets to throw in the white towel early and for the hungry and desperate WINGS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports
|
02-21-16 |
Avalanche v. Canucks -110 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* NHL GAME OF THE WEEK on the Vancouver Canucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Canucks haven’t been eliminated from postseason contention yet despite having won only twice in their last ten games overall, including six straight in front of the home town crowd. Suffice it to say, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side today as it looks to break the string of futility, it’s first game of a five game home stand: "It's going to be huge for us to turn this around," said Canucks rookie Jake Virtanen last night. "We're obviously going to have to step up as a team and the younger guys are going to have to step up and the older guys are going to have to keep on playing hard." Classic letdown spot: No need to overanalyze this angle, the Avs are coming off a hard-fought 3-2 win in Edmonton just last night. Goaltenders a “wash”: Neither team has an advantage in net, the Canucks goaltending has been atrocious during the slide, but note that despite a 1-5-2 record since January 19th, Vancouver starter Ryan Miler has posted a highly respectable 2.49 GAA in the process. Avs’ goalie Semyon Varlamov has a 3.74 GAA over his last three vs. Vancouver. The bottom line: The value is to good to turn down in this one when considering the strong factors listed above, play on the CANUCKS. AAA Sports
|
02-19-16 |
Canucks v. Flames -140 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Both teams struggling mightily, BUT: Both teams are struggling to get victories. The Flames also learned that starting goaltender Karri Ramo is lost for the season due to injury. Vancouver’s goaltending issues aren’t much better with both starter and backup struggling. So with each team continuing to flounder, where’s the advantage here? The difference in our minds is clearly on the offensive end of the ice, where the Flames have averaged at least 3.5 goals over their last six games, compared to the Canucks 1.8 over their last eight. ATS statistics: Note that Vancouver is just 5-6 (-3 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Calgary is 4-2 (+2.4 units) after playing to three or more consecutive losses. The bottom line: Vancouver played and lost just last night, so we definitely believe fatigue will be a factor in this one. All signs do indeed point to the FLAMES as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports
|
02-18-16 |
Ducks -140 v. Canucks |
|
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Anaheim Ducks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Momentum: After a slow start to the year, Anaheim is now 29-19-8. The Ducks have been surging on the road as well, they’ll be looking for a season high fourth-straight road win, while handing the Canucks their first six-game home losing skid in seven years: "We've been putting some good wins together," said Ducks’ goaltender Frederik Andersen, who most recently made 24 saves to help his team improve to 9-1-3 in its last 13 away from home. "We've been taking good strides toward being a top team in this division." The Ducks have averaged 4.1 goals during a 7-1-1 road stretch, going five for ten on the power play in their last three games. Revenge: The Ducks get a golden chance today to avenge dual 2-1 shootout losses to the Canucks this season. Inept homeside: Vancouver has totalled just seven goals during an 0-4-1 stretch in front of the home town crowd. ATS statistics: Note that Anaheim is 57-37 (+12.4 units) the last three seasons in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Vancouver is just 8-17 (-8.2 units) this season vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, ANAHEIM comes in focused and kicks this struggling Canucks team while it’s down. AAA Sports
|
02-18-16 |
Wild v. Oilers -108 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Edmonton Oilers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic letdown spot: Following a dismal 1-11-2 stretch, the Wild would release coach Mike Yeo and hire Jon Torchetti in his place. The Wild have responded with two straight big road wins, a 5-2 victory in Vancouver and then a a 5-3 win in Calgary on Wednesday. Note that prior to the win over the Canucks, Minnesota hadn’t scored more than three goals in a game since early January, a 2-11-3 skid in which it averaged a paltry 1.87 GPG with a brutal 14.9 percent power play. Revenge factor: To say this is a “revenge” game for the Oilers would be a bit of an understatement as not only did the Wild open the season series with a 4-3 home win back on October 27th, but Minnesota has also gone 9-2-1 the last 12 in the series, which includes five victories in as many tries in Edmonton. ATS statistics: Note that Minnesota is already just 3-7 (-3.7 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days. The bottom line: It’s been a frustrating stretch for Edmonton, but the stars have aligned for the young team, we’re expecting to see some much more disciplined play and for the OILERS to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. AAA Sports
|
02-18-16 |
Jets v. Lightning -150 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Tampa Bay Lightning. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: Winnipeg is just 25-28-3 on the year and while it still has designs at one last playoff push, it’s the Lightning which figure to come into this one the more motivated. At 30-22-4, Tampa is now outside of the playoff picture looking in and because of this, we definitely expect it to come in focused on the task at hand as it looks to avoid a fifth loss in its last six games. After winning nine-straight at home, the Bolts have dropped two in a row at Amalie Arena: "We've got 26 games left and they're all going to be important," said goaltender Ben Bishop. "It's gut-check time." Crash and burn Jets: Winnipeg is near the bottom of the Western Conference and hasn’t really shown any signs of life, it’s managed just five non-shootout goals while splitting its last four and was held to eight of its 21 shots in the first two periods of Tuesday’s 2-1 setback at Carolina. Note that the Jets are 1 for 20 on the power play in four games; they’re also a unit which ranks near the bottom of the NHL in penalty-kill percentage. ATS statistics: Note that Winnipeg is just 11-13 (-1.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Tampa Bay is 9-5 (+2.9 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. The bottom line: When taking into account these strong situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports
|
02-16-16 |
Stars v. Blues -125 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on St. Louis Blues. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of really basic factors: Revenge: While St. Louis has in fact taken two of three from the Stars this year, the Blues would lose the last one, a 3-0 setback at Dallas on December 27th. Letdown spot: After winning four straight, including a 3-2 OT victory at Nashville just last night, there’s no question that in some small way this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot of the visitors. ATS statistics: Note that Dallas is a poor 5-6 (-4.4 units) already this season after a three game unbeaten streak, while St. Louis is 15-11 (+4.1 units) vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one, we think the Stars finally run out of gas tonight and the BLUES step up and take advantage. AAA Sports
|
02-13-16 |
Coyotes v. Sharks -185 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the San Jose Sharks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of basic factors: Scheduling: Arizona broke a five-game slide with a 4-1 win over Calgary just last night. Suffice it to say, this one definitely sets up as a letdown spot in our opinion. San Jose has had a night off to brood over a 6-5 shootout loss to those very Flames and will be eager to return to the winners circle and take advantage of this favorable situation. ATS statistics: Note that Arizona is just 4-7 (-1.9 units) when playing on back-to-back days this year, while San Jose is 12-9 (+2.4 units) after allowing four goals or more. The bottom line: A tired and contented Coyotes team is going to throw in the white flag early and with a couple of key factors working in their favor, all signs do indeed point to the SHARKS as the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports
|
02-13-16 |
Maple Leafs v. Canucks -170 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-170 |
29 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Vancouver Canucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: The Canucks will be eager to build off their two straight road victories and to avenge a 4-2 setback to Toronto on November 11th. Motivation: Vancouver will also be looking to snap a three-game slide in front of the home town crowd. With the two game win surge, the Canucks are now just outside of a playoff spot in the Western Conference: "Every game is do or die for us," Canucks’ defenseman Alex Biega confirmed last night. "Every point really matters. For the most part, that's playoff-type of hockey." If history is any precedence: Vancouver definitely has to be feeling confident in this spot, it hasn’t lost at home to the Maple Leafs since 2003, while outscoring them 26-7 in the last six there. Plummeting Leafs: Toronto comes in with zero momentum, it’s 0-3-0 on its current five-game road trip after falling 5-2 to Edmonton on Thursday. The Leafs have given up 15 goals so far on the swing. Expected starter Jonathan Bernier has posted a deplorable 3.82 GAA while losing four straight road starts. ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is 6-13 (-6.2 units) this year after allowing four goals or more, while Vancouver is 13-10 (+3.7 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: There’s no reason for VANCOUVER to look past the lowly Leafs today, this is a do or die scenario and all signs do indeed point to a victory of the rocking-chair variety. AAA Sports
|
02-13-16 |
Predators v. Panthers -123 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-123 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Florida Panthers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a what we feel to be two important factors: Scheduling: Both teams played and lost just last night. Nashville’s setback was definitely the more disappointing though as it would cough up a late lead to Tampa Bay and then eventually fall 4-3 in OT. As we approach the final stretch of the season, a back to back game naturally favors the home side at this time of year as players are able to sleep in their own beds and be in familiar surroundings. ATS statistics: Note that Nashville is already 1-6 (-6.3 units) when playing on back-to-back days this season, while Florida is 6-4 (+2.5 units) in the same position. The bottom line: Backed by a great situational factor and some extremely strong and relevant trends, all signs do indeed point to the PANTHERS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports
|
02-06-16 |
Flames v. Canucks -127 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
33 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* EXPRESS on the Vancouver Canucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, this selection is based on a few basic factors: Scheduling: The Flames played the Blue Jackets just last night. Revenge: Vancouver lost 3-2 in OT to Calgary on November 10th. The bottom line: Vancouver will be desperate to break a three game slide (note that the Canucks have lost each game by a single goal) and to avenge the earlier loss by taking advantage of this tired Flames team which we feel will come in with “heavy legs.” There’s no question that the price is right in this one, lay it with confidence on VANCOUVER. AAA Sports
|
02-05-16 |
Blue Jackets v. Flames -160 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-160 |
31 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Calgary Flames. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Scheduling: No need to overanalyze this one, the Jackets just played and won a 2-1 shootout in Vancouver just last night, there’s no question that this one sets up as a classic letdown spot after that extremely satisfying victory. Revenge: The Flames will be especially motivated here to build off their 4-1 win over Carolina to open the second half to avenge the fact that Columbus is 4-1-0 in its last five visits to Calgary. The bottom line: We think the league-worst Jackets come in flat footed and the FLAMES take full advantage. AAA Sports
|
02-04-16 |
Flyers v. Predators -161 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-161 |
31 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Nashville Predators. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: The Predators will be looking to avenge a 3-2 OT loss to the Flyers on November 27th. Home ice advantage: Nashville is 13-8-2 at home, while Philadelphia is only 10-11-2 on the road. ATS statistics: Philadelphia is just 7-11 (-2.2 units) this year in non-conference games, while Nashville is 9-6 (+2.6 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. The bottom line: The situation and trends that are clearly working in favor of the home side makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on NASHVILLE. AAA Sports
|
02-04-16 |
Bruins -145 v. Sabres |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Bruins. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, this play is based on a couple of different common sense factors: Classic letdown spot: Buffalo beat the Sens 3-2 to finish the first half and then opened the second with a convincing 4-2 win at Montreal just last night. Suffice it to say, this definitely falls into a classic letdown position for the home side. Road warriors: The Bruins lost their final home game before the break in a 6-2 setback to the Ducks and then let a two goal lead slip away on Tuesday in a 4-3 OT setback to the Leafs to open the second half. Boston though has played its best hockey on the road this year, going 15-5-2 away from friendly confines. ATS statistics: Note that Boston is 12-8 (+2.3 units) vs. the division this year, while Buffalo is just 7-11 (-1.8) vs. the division and 10-31 (-10.9 units) in its last 21 when playing on back-to-back days. The bottom line: The situation and trends point to BOSTON as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports
|
02-04-16 |
Wild v. Rangers -143 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of common sense factors: Revenge: Both teams are struggling with consistency on both ends of the ice, but the Rangers play with revenge today after falling 5-2 to the Wild on December 17th. Home ice advantage: Despite their recent struggles, the Rangers have done a great job this season in taking care of team’s in front of the home town crowd, going 18-5-2 in the Big Apple. Conversely, the Wild are a poor 9-10-5 away from friendly confines. ATS statistics: Note that the Wild are just 8-9 (-4.2 units) in all non-conference games this year, while the Rangers are 12-8 (+2.2 units) in the same position. The bottom line: Both teams are also dealing with injury issues, but the home ice advantage, the revenge factor along with what we feel to be a great price pushes the scales in favor of NEW YORK in this one. AAA Sports
|
02-02-16 |
Kings -144 v. Coyotes |
Top |
6-2 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Kings. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: LA has lost three of the last four in the series, including a 3-2 setback on January 23rd. A nice first half surprise, BUT …: Arizona is 24-20 and was definitely a nice surprise in the first half, but note that the team did back its way into the break, going 2-4-1 in its last seven. A poor offense is to blame, the Coyotes have gone just 1 for 23 on the power play, while totalling just eight goals over their last six games. Road warriors: The Kings had their fair share of ups and downs in the first half as well, but the team has done very well on the road, going 6-2 their last eight away from friendly confines. ATS statistics: Note that LA is 19-7 (+6.4 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Arizona is just 14-43 (-19.5 units) the last three years vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and we expect it to be the difference maker in this one, play on the KINGS. AAA Sports
|
02-02-16 |
Wild v. Islanders -138 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Islanders. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Zero momentum: The Wild finished the first half with a winning 23-17-9 record, but backed their way into the break, their final contest of the first half was brutal, giving up a short-handed goal late in the third, only to then go on to lose 2-1 in a shootout to Arizona last Monday. Minnesota would close January in a 1-6-1 slide. Revenge situation: To say this is a revenge game would be a bit of an understatement we think, the Isles have dropped three straight in the series, including two in a row in front of the home town crowd. Goaltenders a “wash”: Devan Dubnyk has a 1.67 GAA over a 1-4-1 span, while Jaroslav Halak is 2-1-1 with a 1.72 GAA in his last four starts, while going 2-0-1 with a 0.86 mark vs. Minnesota. ATS statistics: Note that Minnesota is already just 2-5 (-4.6 units) this season when playing with three or more days rest, while the Islanders are 12-6 (+4.9 units) in all non-conference games this year. The bottom line: Both teams will clearly be hungry, but the ISLANDERS have the motivation advantage as well as home ice and all things considered, we definitely feel that the price is right in this one. AAA Sports
|
01-26-16 |
Blackhawks -144 v. Hurricanes |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-144 |
28 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Blackhawks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Corey Crawford: The Hawks' netminder has posted a tiny 1.40 GAA while winning nine of his last ten starts, saving nearly 96 percent of the shots that he's faced in that span, while his .932 save percentage in 41 starts is amongst the league leaders. Crawford's counterpart Eddie Lack has been thrust into the spotlight after starting goaltender Cam Ward was injured two weeks ago. So far Lack has been all over the map with his performance.
Revenge factor: Chicago looks to close the first half of the season by stringing a couple of wins together (beat the Blues 2-0 on Sunday) and to avenge a 2-1 loss to the Hurricanes in late December.
ATS statistics: Note that the Blackhawks are 20-5 (+12 units) this season vs. teams with losing records and a perfect 3-0 (+3.1 units) in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while the Hurricanes are just 5-15 (-11 units) this year following a non-conference contest and 4-7 (-3 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game.
The bottom line: We definitely feel the price should be higher on this one, great value on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
01-25-16 |
Flames v. Stars -195 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG TIGER on the Dallas Stars.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: The Stars have lost three straight in the series.
Final home game: Dallas plays its final home game before the All Star break and then hits the road for an extended stretch, putting added importance onto this contest: "It's going to be huge for us. It's a home game, too We need all those points now," Stars' defenseman John Klingberg assessed last night. "Chicago is in front of us now, and we want to keep playing good here, so it's going to be a big game."
No need to overanalyze: The Flames are 2-4-1 in their last seven and are coming off a 5-2 loss at Carolina just last night.
ATS statistics: Note that Calgary is a poor 2-4 (-1.7 units) this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Dallas is 4-1 (+3.3 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest.
The bottom line: The overwhelming motivational, situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side today makes this a price which we have no problem at all in laying; play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
|
01-23-16 |
Wild v. Sharks -133 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Jose Sharks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Surging Sharks: San Jose has outscored its opposition 27-13 during a 6-0-1 stretch that includes a 3-0-1 mark in front of the home town crowd.
Superior goaltending: Sharks' goalie Martin Jones has won his last five starts behind a 1.76 GAA and has a 1.29 GAA while winning his last three at home.
Revenge factor: San Jose fell 2-0 to the Wild on December 12th.
ATS statistics: Note that Minnesota is just 4-6 (-3.1 units) after a win by two goals or more this season, while San Jose is 16-11 (+4 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Minnesota broke a five-game slide with a 3-0 win at LA last time out and now finishes a long road trip, suffice it to say we think this sets up as a natural letdown spot. The SHARKS have a ton of different situational, motivational and statistical factors working in their favor and there's no doubt that the price is right on this one, lay it with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
01-21-16 |
Oilers v. Stars -190 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Dallas Stars.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: Clearly the Stars are going to be the more motivated of the two clubs, they've lost eight of their last ten, including four in a row. After a two game win streak, the Oilers fell 6-4 at Tampa Bay on Tuesday.
Revenge: The Stars fell 2-1 in OT to the Oilers on December 4th.
ATS statistics: Note that Edmonton is 4-10 (-4.8 units) this season following a loss by two goals or more and just 5-15 (-8.8 units) following a non-conference contest, while Dallas is 5-3 (+1.7 units) in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Despite the recent slide, the Stars are still 29-13-3 overall this year, including 17-5 at home. The lowly Oilers are just 19-24-4 overall and a brutal 6-15-3 on the road. We think DALLAS bounces back with a resounding effort in front of the home town crowd.
AAA Sports
|
01-19-16 |
Canucks v. Rangers -180 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Rangers.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: The Rangers haven't been playing horribly, but they certainly haven't been playing great, splitting wins and losses over their last ten games, they'll be motivated here to bounce back after a 5-2 setback and league-leading Washington on Sunday. The Canucks on the other hand come in a bit complacent we think, they opened a six-game road trip with a 4-1 loss at the nation's capital but have since won back-to-back extra period games, including a 2-1 shootout victory at Long Island on Sunday; this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot.
Revenge: The Rangers fell to Vancouver 2-1 on December 9th.
ATS statistics: Note that Vancouver is just 4-7 (-2.2 units) after playing three consecutive road games, while New York is 2-0 (+2 units) after playing three consecutive road games.
The bottom line: All signs point to a relatively easy victory for the RANGERS.
AAA Sports
|
01-18-16 |
Penguins v. Blues -134 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Blues.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: This is an obviously won, after back-to-back OT losses, the Penguins would bounce back with a 5-0 win over Carolina just last night (we had Pittsburgh in that one). Note that Pittsburgh is a horrible 2-7 (-6.3 units) this season in the second game of a back-to-back this season.
Revenge: These team's met on November 25th and the Penguins pulled off the 4-3 OT victory.
Momentum: The Blues come in with plenty of momentum, they've won three of four, including a 4-3 victory over Montreal on Saturday, goaltender Brian Elliot made a career-high 46 saves.
Dominant penalty killing: St. Louis was successful on six of seven penalties vs. the Habs and is 22 for 25 on the penalty kill over its last six.
The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one, a bunch of significant factors work in favor of ST. LOUIS today, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying.
AAA Sports
|
01-17-16 |
Hurricanes v. Penguins -151 |
Top |
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
The revenge factor: This is an obvious one, the Penguins lost 3-2 in OT to Carolina on January 12th. Carolina has in fact taken both meetings between the clubs this season.
Home ice advantage: The Pens are 10-7-1 at home, while the Hurricanes are just 10-10-3 away from friendly confines.
Motivation: Pittsburgh sits just two wild-card spots back of the Lightning and Montreal, but has dropped 13 of its last 19 overall.
Classic letdown spot: We feel this one sets up as a letdown spot, the Hurricanes had won a season best four in a row before a 3-2 OT defeat to Vancouver on Friday. It's hard to gain that momentum once you've lost it, all signs definitely point to the visitors struggling today.
The bottom line: The desperation level in which the PENGUINS play with today turns out to be the difference in the final outcome.
AAA Sports
|
01-16-16 |
Stars v. Sharks -116 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the San Jose Sharks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: The Stars just played and lost 4-2 at Anaheim last night. Dallas has now lost seven of its last ten, including two in a row.
Revenge: San Jose lost to the Ducks 5-3 on November 31st.
ATS statistics: Note that Dallas is a poor 13-19 (-3.2 units) in its last 32 when playing on back-to-back days, while San Jose is 14-10 (+3.5 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: When these teams met at the start of the year, things were different, but clearly now the tables have turned. The Stars have been atrocious on both ends of the ice over the last month, while the Sharks have been steadily improving over that time. When taking into account all of the above factors and also factoring in what we feel to be an extremely favorable line, all signs do indeed point to SAN JOSE as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
01-16-16 |
Capitals -181 v. Sabres |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-181 |
29 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: This is an obvious one, the Capitals come in off five straight victories, including a 4-1 win over Vancouver on Thursday, while the Sabres come in with heavy legs, after back-to-back wins, Buffalo would come up short in last night's 4-1 setback to the Bruins.
Inept offense: The Sabres have been atrocious on both ends of the ice during their six-game home slide, most noticeably getting outscored 17-6 while producing just two even-strength goals over that stretch.
Firing on all cylinders: The Capitals are the No. 1 team in the league right now and have outscored opponents 22-8 over their current five-game win streak and have gone 14-1-1 since December 12th. Washington is due for a big letdown loss, but it won't be today, this is a golden opportunity for the team to continue its incredible domination.
Depth at goaltender: Whether its Braden Holtby or backup Philipp Grubauer in net, clearly the visitors have the upper hand in that department; note that Holtby hasn't lost since November 10th and has compiled a 20-0-2 record and a 1.85 GAA, while Grubauer has a highly respectable 2.23 GAA in nine appearances this year. The Sabres got Robin Lehner back between the pipes on Friday, but it didn't help as he'd let in three third period goals. Backup Chad Johnson will likely get the start tonight.
Significant injury: Buffalo isn't loaded with talent, but does have a top play maker in forward Tyler Ennis, who will once again be sitting this one out with an upper-body injury. And now Zemgus Girgensons is also sidelined after suffering a similar injury in the setback to the Bruins.
ATS statistics: Note that Washington is 10-1 (+8.5 units) following a non-conference game, while Buffalo is 9-20 (-5.7 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Lay the price with confidence as the CAPITALS take full advantage of this situation and cruise to a comfortable victory.
AAA Sports
|
01-15-16 |
Bruins -135 v. Sabres |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Bruins.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
The revenge factor: The last time these team's met, the Sabres got the better of the Bruins, destroying Boston 6-3 in front of the home town crowd back on January 15th.
Desperation factor: Desperation breeds motivation, there's no question that the B's will be hungry today, they've lost eight of their last ten, including three straight, most recently letting a 2-1 lead slip away in the third in an eventual 3-2 setback at Philadelphia on Wednesday.
Classic "letdown/look ahead" spot: The Sabres come in contented, they close a three-game road trip by winning the last two, including a 4-2 victory at Winnipeg, followed by a 3-2 win at Minnesota on Tuesday. And with a game vs. Eastern Conference leading Washington tomorrow, it certainly isn't too hard to imagine the home side getting caught already mentally preparing for that one.
ATS statistics: Note that Boston is 3-0 (+3 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses, while Buffalo is 3-6 (-1.5 units) when playing with two days of rest.
The bottom line: After taking all of the above factors into consideration, it's in our professional opinion that this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the BRUINS.
AAA Sports
|
01-14-16 |
Oilers v. Sharks -175 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: The last time these teams played, Edmonton would snag the 4-3 OT win on December 9th.
Edmonton road woes: The team has been abysmal away from friendly confines, it comes to San Jose having lost six straight on the road.
Brutal goaltending for the Oilers: Anders Nilsson has lost four straight behind a 4.29 GAA.
If history is any precedence: Then the home side has to be loving its chances today, as note that the Sharks are 10-1-2 in their last 13 home games vs. Edmonton.
ATS statistics: Note that the Oilers are just 5-9 (-2.6 units) vs. the division, while San Jose is 13-10 (+2.5 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Look for the Sharks to come in focus and to avenge the earlier setback against their former coach, lay the price with confidence on SAN JOSE.
AAA Sports
|
01-13-16 |
Panthers v. Flames +104 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
104 |
30 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* REVENGE BIG TIGER on the Calgary Flames.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Classic letdown spot: The Panthers set a franchise record for wins and pulled into the lead in the Atlantic Division, but their streak was ended in a 3-2 OT loss at Vancouver on Monday: "We've been on quite a run for some time now," assistant coach John Madden said. "We did some good things (Monday), but we didn't do enough to win."
Also a revenge spot: The Flames lost at Florida 4-3 on November 10th.
ATS statistics: Note that the Panthers are just 28-44 (-10 units) in their last 72 non-conference games, while Calgary is 4-2 (+2.8 units) this season after playing three or more consecutive home games.
The bottom line: Calgary is tough to beat at home, they catch a Panthers team off an emotional and draining loss and there's no question that we're getting extremely good line value here. Play on the FLAMES.
AAA Sports
|
01-13-16 |
Bruins -108 v. Flyers |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
29 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Bruins.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based 100% completely on strong ATS statistics:
Note that Boston is 4-2 (+1.8 units) in its last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 2-4 (-1.9 units) after a victory by two goals or more.
The bottom line: Boston will be desperate to break a recent three-game slide, while Philadelphia comes in complacent after winning three straight. When combined with these strong trends listed above, all signs do indeed point to the BRUINS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
01-12-16 |
Blue Jackets v. Islanders -191 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Islanders.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Focus: New York is 22-15-5 this year and has had tremendous success vs. Metropolitan Divisional foes the last few season, but that reign of domination has slipped lately, as it's lost three straight vs. the Division since the New Year. The Isles will be especially motivated here as well after back-to-back lacklustre efforts, a 4-1 loss to Washington on Thursday, followed by a 4-0 shutout setback at Philadelphia on Saturday: "It's just unacceptable about some of the way certain guys are playing right now," Isles' coach Jack Capuano assessed last night.
If history is any precedence: Then the Isles have to be loving their chances for a bounce back today as they've already captured both meetings with the Blue Jackets this season.
Jaroslav Halak: The Rangers' netminder is 5-0-2 with a 2.22 GAA in his last seven vs. the Blue Jackets.
ATS statistics: Columbus is among the league's worst in several statistical categories this year and note that it's struggled mightily in this position all season, going just 5-7 (1.4 units) when playing with two days of rest and only 4-14 (-10.9 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest, while New York has done admirably in this spot by going 6-4 (+2 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest and 5-3 (+1.2 units) when playing with two days of rest.
The bottom line: We expect the focus that the home side plays with tonight will ultimately prove to be the difference, lay the price with confidence on the ISLANDERS.
AAA Sports
|
01-11-16 |
Red Wings v. Kings -179 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: The Wings are coming off a 2-1 win at Anaheim just last night.
Revenge: The Kings lost 3-2 to Detroit on November 20th.
ATS statistics: Note that LA is 15-5 (+6.6 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year.
Jimmy Howard: The Red Wings goaltender is 0-1-3 with a 3.77 GAA over his last five starts.
The bottom line: A bunch of different factors collide making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on DETROIT.
AAA Sports
|
01-09-16 |
Blues v. Kings -156 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-156 |
32 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Sacramento Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Scheduling: This is an obvious one, as good as the Warriors are, we're now at the point of the season where back-to-back games start to pay a toll. Golden State annihilated the Blazers in Portland 128-108 as a 9-point favorite last night and is now being asked to cover a large spread on the road once again not even 24 hours later.
Improved play from the home side: The Kings have won three of four behind a vastly improved offensive scheme. Check out Sacramento's last four games: 142-119 win over Phoenix; 116-104 win over OKC; 117-116 loss in OT at Dallas; 118-115 victory over Lakers. The Kings will be pushing the pace and hoisting the three ball as much or more than the visiting side.
Revenge factor: To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Warriors have won 11 straight (SU), while going 8-1 ATS their last nine in the series.
The bottom line: And it's as simple as that for us, Sacramento is playing its best ball of the entire season right now and it catches a weary Warriors team on the second game of a back-to-back. Throw in the revenge factor and the savvy move in this contest is indeed on the KINGS.
AAA Sports
|
01-09-16 |
Wild v. Stars -145 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-145 |
29 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Stars.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that Minnesota is 1-3 (-2.7 units) in its last four overall and only 8-9 (-1.9 units) vs. division opponents.
And note that Dallas is 12-4 (+8.6 units) vs. teams with winning records this season and 8-3 (+4.9 units) vs. clubs with winning records.
Play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
|
01-09-16 |
Maple Leafs v. Sharks -136 |
|
0-7 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the San Jose Sharks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that Toronto is already just 3-8 (-3.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent and only 2-8 (-4.9 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest.
And note that San Jose is 13-8 (+3.6 units) this year in all non-conference games.
Play on the SHARKS.
|
01-05-16 |
Jets v. Predators -160 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-160 |
30 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Winnipeg's brutal road play: After falling 4-1 in Anaheim on Sunday, the Jets are just 2-12-1 on the road since November 5th and all but one of those setbacks in that stretch has come by at least two goals.
Jets brutal special teams: Winnipeg has gone 2 for 30 with the man advantage over the last ten games and falling to 13.9 percent efficiency overall, while the penalty kill is an abysmal 28 for 41 (76.3) over its last 11 contests.
Winnipeg's brutal offense: Drew Stafford is the only among five different players with at least ten goals to score one in the team's last three outings; Blake Wheeler has scored in ten games.
Pekka Rinne: The Predators' netminder is 8-1-0 with a 1.56 GAA and .942 save percentage lifetime as a starter vs. the Jets.
The bottom line: In our opinion, this line should in fact be quite a bit larger, Winnipeg is getting too much respect here, we're expecting a lop-sided destruction from the opening tip until the final horn; play on the PREDATORS.
AAA Sports
|
01-04-16 |
Senators v. Blues -195 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-195 |
31 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Blues.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that Ottawa is already a poor 1-5 (-4.8 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days and just 5-7 (-3.5 units) after a non-conference games.
And note that St. Louis is 7-1 (+6 units) this season after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest and 7-4 (+2.2 units) after a loss by two goals or more.
The bottom line: It's a perfect spot for the home side to take advantage of and we fully expect it to do just that; lay the price with confidence on the BLUES.
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Jets v. Ducks -170 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Ducks' goaltender John Gibson: Gibson has posted a league-best 1.68 GAA and four shutouts in 14 appearances this year.
Home ice advantage: the Ducks are 9-5-4 at the Honda Center this year, including 3-1-0 their last four.
Scheduling: this is a natural letdown spot for the Jets, who come in off a 4-1 win at San Jose just last night.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Winnipeg is a poor 2-6 (-3.4 units) when playing on back-to-back days this year, while Anaheim is interestingly, 4-0 (+4 units) when playing on a Sunday this season.
The bottom line: Anaheim is in desperation mode still after its slow start, this is a game it HAS to win and we do indeed expect it to step up and take advantage of this favorable situation; play on the DUCKS.
AAA Sports
|
01-02-16 |
Red Wings -115 v. Sabres |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Red Wings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Both teams are struggling, and each is dealing with injury issues. We'll call this area a "wash." These teams have split a pair of games this year, so it's the Red Wings that play with revenge today after falling 2-1 at home in a shootout to the Sabres on December 14th.
- Note that Detroit is already 3-1 (+2.4 units) this season after three or more consecutive losses.
- And note that Buffalo is just 2-4 (-1.8 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses.
The bottom line: Detroit is 30-24 (+2.8 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while Buffalo is 20-61 (-29.3 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest.
In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." Play on DETROIT.
AAA Sports
|
12-29-15 |
Ducks v. Flames -120 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
31 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Calgary Flames.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and the "revenge" factor: note that Anaheim is just 4-6 (-5.2 units) vs. the division this year and only 2-5 (-3 units) after a victory by two goals or more, while Calgary is 6-3 (+3.5 units) this season after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. And note, this is indeed a "revenge" game after the Flames fell to Anaheim 5-3 on November 24th. Fantastic line value, play on CALGARY.
AAA Sports
|
12-27-15 |
Oilers v. Flames -150 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Calgary Flames.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based on strong and relevant ATS stats, as well as scheduling factors: note that Edmonton played and lost just last night in Vancouver, so there's no question that the Oilers will have "heavy legs" tonight. Conversely the Flames are well rested and have been the best "home team" in the league this year; note that Calgary is 47-36 (+12.7 units) the last three season's vs. teams with losing records. Lay the price with confidence on the FLAMES.
AAA Sports
|
12-22-15 |
Jets v. Flames -134 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames.
No need to overanalyze this one, the Jets are coming off a 3-1 loss in Edmonton last night and meet a Calgary team which has won nine-straight in front of the home town crowd and which will be eager to return to form after going 2-2-0 on a recent road trip which concluded with a 4-2 loss to Detroit on Sunday (we gave out the Oilers as a free play last night and had the Red Wings on Sunday). Winnipeg will be tired and looking towards its Christmas break, it's just 1-9-1 its last 11 on the road with four straight losses. Note Calgary starting goaltender Karri Ramo has a 2.10 GAA in winning his last seven at home, while Jets' netminder Michael Hutchinson is 0-6-1 with a 4.14 GAA in last seven away from friendly confines. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on the FLAMES.
AAA Sports
|
12-21-15 |
Maple Leafs v. Avalanche -175 |
|
7-4 |
Loss |
-175 |
31 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Colorado Avalanche.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one's approach is the best way to secure profits over the long-term. We routinely look at many factors, including motivation, scheduling, other external factors along with line price/movement and one thing we always take into consideration are strong and relevant Against The Spread statistics and they're what we're basing this pick on entirely, as note: Toronto is already just 2-4 (-1.9 units) this season after a win by two gaols or more and only 1-3 (-1.8 units) after playing three consecutive home games, while Colorado is 28-24 in its last 42 (+4.9 units) after a win by two goals or more. Lay the price with confidence on the AVALANCHE.
AAA Sports
|
12-20-15 |
Flames v. Red Wings -160 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Red Wings.
After an 8-0-4 stretch, Detroit has gone 0-1-2, with each game being decided by a single goal, most recently a 4-3 setback to Vancouver in a seven-round shootout on Friday. To say the team is motivated right now would be a bit of an understatement, just look at the comments of Wings' coach Jeff Blashill: "I was embarrassed at the job I did to get our team ready to go out and play. It's unacceptable," Blashill assessed. "There's no question about it. Now with that said, I have unbelievable belief in this group as people and as winners. So I believe that we're going to be totally ready to play (Sunday)." Calgary had been rolling along with seven-straight victories, but would fall 3-2 at St. Louis yesterday; this is the final game of a four-game trip and the second game of a back-to-back, suffice it to say, this one definitely sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors. Also note that the Flames' power play has been abysmal all season, ranking last in the league with a 10.3 percent success rate. And finally note that from a trend based stand point, they simply don't get much better than this as Detroit is 39-29 (+4.1 units) in all non-conference games the last three years, while Calgary is already just 2-4 (-1.7 units) this year when playing on back-to-back days. Lay the price with confidence on the RED WINGS.
AAA Sports
|
12-17-15 |
Flames v. Stars -196 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-196 |
31 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Dallas Stars.
This is a massive mismatch, so much so that there's no question in our minds that we're still getting fantastic value on the home side. Calgary entered December tied for the fewest points in the league, but the team comes into this one as arguably the hottest in the NHL, including a victory over the league-best Dallas Stars. Most recently Calgary held on for a 2-1 OT win in Nashville on Tuesday. Note though that the Flames are 4-9-2 on the road compared to 10-5-0 at home. And now Calgary faces the revenge minded Stars, who are 12-3-0 at home, winning four straight after crushing Columbus 5-1 on Tuesday. Both teams have been getting pretty good goaltending of late, so we'll call that area a "wash," but there's no question in our minds that this finally sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Conversely, the Stars will be eager to exact revenge and also note that Dallas has in fact dominated in this spot all season, so far it's a fantastic 10-5 (+2.8 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. And note that Calgary is just 9-11 (-1.3 units) in its last 20 following a three-game unbeaten streak. Lay the price with confidence on the STARS.
AAA Sports
|
12-15-15 |
Avalanche v. Blackhawks -190 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-190 |
30 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Blackhawks.
Chicago has won two straight and continues to ride Patrick Kane's 26 game points streak, most recently they'd hammer the Canucks 4-0 on Sunday. Colorado comes in off two straight road wins and suffice it to say, there is no question in our minds that this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors as they will head back home after this one, in what is already considered a successful road trip for them, most recently a 3-1 victory at St. Louis on Sunday. Both teams' goaltenders have been hot of late, so we'll call that department a "wash," however take note that Colorado is a poor 1-6 (-5.4 units) this season after a victory by two goals or more, while Chicago is 6-4 (+1.4 units) this year after a victory by two goals or more. Lay the price with confidence on the BLACKHAWKs.
AAA Sports
|
12-12-15 |
Senators v. Canadiens -125 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens.
The Habs come in in the midst of their longest losing streak of the season, failing to score more than two goals in six straight games. But desperation breeds motivation, we look for the home side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes today and ultimately feel that this focus will translate into production on the ice, indeed making this the very definition of "great line value." "We're facing adversity and that's going to make us stronger," coach Michel Therrien said. The Sens have been all over the map so far with their performance this year; note that these team's have already split a pair of matchups this season. Check out this stat though: Ottawa's goaltenders face an average of 33.6 shots for the league's highest total, while the Canadiens are among the league's leaders with 31.1 shots per game, totaling 71 in the two meetings with the Sens. And note that Ottawa is just 5-6 (-1.6 units) this year vs. teams with winning records, while Montreal is 7-3 (+3.2 units) vs. division opponents this season. Play on the CANADIENS.
AAA Sports
|
12-11-15 |
Hurricanes v. Ducks -193 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-193 |
33 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Anaheim Ducks.
Carolina is coming off a couple of heart-breaking losses and we expect the team to stumble vs. this stingy Ducks team tonight as well. Most recently the Hurricanes lost 6-5 in Dallas on Tuesday. And if history is any precedence, then things aren't going to get any easier on the visitors, who have lost in four consecutive trips to Anaheim since 2008. The Ducks are trending in the opposite direction, winning two straight behind some great defensive play and goaltending, most recently a 2-1 effort over Pittsburgh on Sunday. The difference maker today is Anaheim goaltender John Gibson, who has two shutouts in his last four games, allowing a combined three goals in four of his six consecutive starts. Note that Carolina is 2-4 (-2.3 units) this season when playing with two days of rest, while Anaheim is 11-4 (+5.6 units) when playing with three or more days rest. Lay the price with confidence on the DUCKS.
AAA Sports
|
12-08-15 |
Hurricanes v. Stars -203 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Dallas Stars.
We don't mind laying chalk at all when we feel that our "play on" side is going to crush its opponent and that's definitely the case in this matchup as we look for the high-flying Stars to bounce back off a 2-1 OT loss in Edmonton and to bury the over-matched Hurricanes from start to finish. This is the opener of five of six at home for Dallas: "We can't be disappointed with six out of eight points on a road trip," Stars' head coach Lindy Ruff assessed last night. " ... We got the points you need in a four-game block. These last two games we've really played well. We're missing too many really good opportunities to put teams away." A date vs. the hapless Hurricanes is just what the doctor ordered for the Stars to get untracked against, Carolina is killing just 69.0 percent of its penalties on the road for one of the league's lowest success rates. Also note that Dallas has scored 13 goals in its last three vs. Carolina, including a 4-1 victory on November 6th. There's no question that the Hurricanes are horrible, they've given up an Eastern Conference worst 3.13 GPG since the start of November, both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack rank among the worst goaltenders in the league as well (and note that the Hurricanes have allowed 14 goals during a four-game road losing streak). And there is also no question whatsoever that this indeed sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, who are coming off back-to-back improbable home victories, a 3-2 win over Montreal, before a 5-4 come from behind win over Arizona on Sunday. And finally note that Carolina owns the NHL's second-worst power play conversion rate at just a paltry 13.3 percent. And that certainly doesn't bode well for the Hurricanes in facing a Stars unit which has killed all nine penalties in the last four games and which is getting solid goaltending from Kari Lehtonen, who owns a tiny 1.98 GAA over his last seven starts and who is 6-1-0 with a 2.55 GAA in his last eight vs. them. Note that Carolina is 17-30 (-8.2 units) in its last 37 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Dallas is 9-3 (+7 units) in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest. Play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
|
12-06-15 |
Jets v. Blackhawks -178 |
|
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Blackhawks.
No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, in our professional opinion all signs do indeed point to a wire-to-wire destruction in this matchup. Chicago comes in razor focused here after losing three straight, most recently a 4-3 OT loss to the Senators. This is also a major revenge game for the Blackhawks who are just 1-1-5 vs. the Jets since 2014, most recently falling 3-1 to Winnipeg on October 29th. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors as well after winning 2-1 in Washington just yesterday. It was the Jets third victory in their last four games. These teams' mindsets are polar opposite, the visitors are contented, while the home side is desperate. Lay the price with confidence on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
12-04-15 |
Stars -136 v. Oilers |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-136 |
32 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Dallas Stars.
Sometimes we feel it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at situational, motivational and trend based factors, and other times we believe that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that's the case here. Edmonton is playing with significant injuries as Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov, Benoit Pouliot and Rob Klinkhammer are all still out. Not surprisingly the Oilers are averaging just 1.3 goals over their last six games and the power play is 0 for 8 over the last two. Conversely, the Stars are 8-1-1 their last ten and 11-2-1 away from home this year, off to the franchises best start ever. Dallas is also 16-3-1 vs. the Oilers since 2010 and have won six of the last seven matchups in Edmonton. This one is a no-brainer and there's no question that the price is right, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
|
12-03-15 |
Coyotes v. Red Wings -171 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Red Wings.
We wagered on the Wings in their last game vs. the Sabres and they'd gut out the 5-4 victory in the shootout (also had the OVER in that same game, our 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) and we think the home side carries that winning momentum over into another favorable matchup vs. a Coyotes team which is coming off an ugly loss. The Wings outshot the Sabres 32-14 over the second and third periods and 46-32 for the game. Arizona on the other hand had its three-game win skein end in a 5-2 loss at Nashville on Tuesday. The Coyotes would allow four unanswered goals in the third period in the setback, allowing the Predators a 41-15 advantage in shots. Note that Arizona's minus-3.92 shot differential is amongst the worst in the NHL. And note that the Coyotes have given up at least one power-play goal in the past four games with the opposition going 5 for 14. And finally note that Arizona is 15-29 (-9 units) in its last 44 non-conference games, while Detroit is 36-28 (+3.9 units) in the same position. All signs point to a beatdown, lay the price with confidence on the RED WINGS.
AAA Sports
|
12-01-15 |
Sabres v. Red Wings -178 |
|
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Red Wings.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the total to eclipse the posted number. Detroit is 12-8-4 this year and 4-0-3 since November 16th after losing three of its previous four. And a date vs. the Sabres is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as the Red Wings are 26-2-2 with one tie vs. the Sabres since 1996, including an 11-0-1 mark since 2010. Buffalo won't be rolling over today though, after an 0-4-2 stretch the team has now won twice, scoring back to back 4-1 victories over Carolina on Friday and Nashville on Saturday. However, this is a spot in which the Sabres have simply been horrible in for a while now, a dismal 12-21 their last 23 when playing with two days rest, while Detroit is a superb 13-8 (+3.6 units) after playing three consecutive home games.
AAA Sports
|
11-30-15 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers -200 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Rangers.
In the midst of their worst stretch of the season, we look for the under achieving home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. New York comes into this one on a three-game losing streak, but a date vs. the hapless 'Canes is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the Rangers have won 17 of the last 18 in the series. Henrik Lundqvist made 33 saves in a 3-0 win over Carolina on November 10th and has yielded one or no goals while starting against them eight straight times: "We all need to man up," New York coach Alain Vigneault assessed after a 3-0 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday. "I need to get this group to play better, and I'm very confident this group knows the right way to play. I'm very confident that we have the right leadership in that dressing room. I am confident that they know they can execute and play a lot better than we are right now." The Hurricanes come to town with zero momentum, most recently falling 4-1 at Buffalo on Friday; note that goaltender Cam Ward has lost his last five straight games in New York in regulation behind a deplorable 4.03 GAA. We're expecting a lop-sided, never in doubt, wire-to-wire destruction and that definitely makes this a price in which we have no issues in laying; play on the RANGERS.
AAA Sports
|
11-28-15 |
Flyers v. Rangers -200 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-200 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Rangers.
After going 11-1-0 during a stretch in late October through November, the Rangers come into this one hungry again after back-to-back losses, including a 5-1 setback to Montreal on Wednesday, before a 4-3 loss at Boston yesterday: "For most of the year the bounces have been going our way, but it's always not going to be perfect and you're not going to win them all," Rangers' defenseman Dan Girardi assessed last night. "But we had the lead there and needed to close it out." This is also a revenge game for New York after Philadelphia won 3-2 in a shootout at home against the Rangers on October 24th. Since that victory though the Flyers have gone a dismal 4-8-4, including yesterday's 3-2 OT win vs. Nashville. There's no question that this early turn around game sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Flyers off their big win yesterday. And note Philadelphia still ranks last in the league in averaging 1.8 GPG. Also note that Steve Mason is expected to be in net for the visitors and he's lost eight of his last nine starts. Counterpart Antti Raanta is 4-0 his last four starts behind a tiny 1.25 GAA and one shutout; he's also 2-1 in three starts vs. Philadelphia after a 32-save shutout in the most recent back on October 21st, 2014. This line should be a lot higher, this is great value on a contest which will prove to be a never-in-doubt, wire-to-wire destruction. Play on the RANGERS.
AAA Sports
|
11-27-15 |
Oilers v. Red Wings -171 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Detroit Red Wings.
We fully expect the Red Wings to come in focused on the task at hand and that makes this a price that we have no issues at all in laying. This is also a revenge game for Detroit after it fell in Edmonton in the team's first meeting this season. The Red Wings outshot Boston 34-22 on Wednesday, but couldn't hold a late lead and lost 3-2 in OT: "I thought we played great, so that's something to build off of. Obviously, we've got to find ways to hold onto that lead and find ways to win in overtime," forward Darren Helm said. "I think we keep moving, build off the positives that we did today and come back for next game." A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track though as the Wings have won 25 of 31 against the Oilers at home and their nine-game home win streaks its longest active one against any opponents. Edmonton comes in wounded, most recently losing Nail Yakupov for at least two weeks in Wednesday's 4-1 road loss to Carolina. The Oilers are just 1-4-1 in their last six overall, while losing four straight on the road, goaltender Cam Talbot has given up 13 goals in his last three outings. The home side counters with Jimmy Howard, who has won his last 12 starts against Edmonton behind a tiny 1.48 GAA. Play on DETROIT.
AAA Sports
|
11-25-15 |
Senators v. Avalanche -119 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
29 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche.
We played the OVER in the Senators and Stars yesterday and came away with a big 10* victory. We don't think we need to overanalyse this one as the contented and tired visitors come to town off that big victory just last night. Colorado on the other hand will be eager to turn its fortunes around on home ice and build off a decent road trip, most recently a 4-1 win over Winnipeg on Monday. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov returned from injury to make 20 saves in that one and a date vs. the Sens is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as he's 3-0 with a 1.99 GAA in his last three vs. them. In our minds, this finally sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Senators, who have gone 4-0-2 in their last six. Also note that Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson is a horrible 1-3-1 with a 5.55 GAA vs. the Avalanche. The situation is as solid as you could possibly ask for and there's no question that the price is right as well; play on COLORADO.
AAA Sports
|
11-23-15 |
Hurricanes v. Flyers -146 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Flyers.
No need to overanalyze this one, despite being injured, the hungry Flyers are rested and catch a crummy Hurricanes team off a game just last night. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done. Philadelphia will be desperate here after getting shutout in its last two games. This sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Canes after their big 4-3 win over the Kings just last night. As a situationally based handicapping service, it rarely matters to us who is on the field of play, this particular kind of contest and the way it sets up is one that we'll always keeps our eyes open for. Note that Carolina is 13-27 (-10.8 units) when playing on back-to-back days, while Philadelphia is 5-4 (+1.1 units) its last nine after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. Play on the FLYERS.
AAA Sports
|
11-21-15 |
Blackhawks v. Canucks +112 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
112 |
33 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Vancouver Canucks.
No need to overanalyse this one in our opinion, we expect the hungry home side to take advantage of a Blackhawks team which is coming off a 2-1 OT loss at Calgary just last night. The loss came on the heels of a 4-3 OT win at Edmonton on Wednesday. Note that Chicago is 8-2-1 at home this year, compared to just 3-5-1 on the road. Vancouver on the other hand concluded a 1-4-2 road trip with a 4-1 loss at Winnipeg on Wednesday. This is a great situational play, but also note that Chicago is in fact just 2-3 (-1.2 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous game, while Vancouver is 23-15 (+5.4 units) its last 38 when playing with two days of rest. Play on the CANUCKS.
AAA Sports
|
11-19-15 |
Rangers v. Lightning -113 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
New York has won nine straight, but we think the desperate home side comes to play today and finds a way to gut out the victory once the final horn blares. The Rangers are coming off a 4-3 home win over last place Toronto on Sunday, blowing two leads, but eventually finding a way to secure the victory. The Bolts are just 3-7-2 in their last 12, while scoring one or no goals nine times thus far. Tampa will be eager to bounce back with a much better effort after falling 1-0 to Florida on Monday as the Panthers completed a home-and-home sweep. After leading the league with 3.16 GAA last year, the Lightning have averaged just 2.30 to date: note though that Tampa Bay is 25-20 (+1.4 units) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game and 22-14 (+5.3 units) when playing with two days of rest. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value," play on the LIGHTNING.
AAA Sports
|
11-19-15 |
Blue Jackets v. Senators -123 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the Ottawa Senators.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. Ottawa will be eager to snap a two-game slide, while Columbus is set up for a classic letdown after winning three straight. After beating the Canucks 3-2, the Sens would then lose 2-1 to the Rangers in a shootout, before a 4-3 OT loss to Detroit on Monday. A date vs. the Jackets is just what the doctor ordered for Ottawa to get untracked though as when the last time these team's met on October 14th, the Sens would smash Columbus 7-3. After opening the year 0-8-0, the Blue Jackets have won seven of 11, most recently a 3-1 victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. We'll call these teams goaltenders' a "wash," but the difference is the desperation level in which the home side plays with today. Play on the SENATORS.
AAA Sports
|
11-18-15 |
Blackhawks -150 v. Oilers |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Blackhawks.
We look for the suddenly surging Blackhawks to get off on the right foot in the start of their six-game Western swing and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Veteran defenseman Duncan Keith and Michael Rozsival are back on the ice after each sat with injury and not surprisingly, they Hawks have won two straight. Patrick Kane continues to dominate, he helped his team outshoot the Flames 41-26 on Saturday to end a five-game road losing streak. Edmonton is trending in the opposite direction, since losing top-overall pick Connor McDavid the team has lost four of its last five, concluding a 1-3-0 road trip with a 4-3 loss at LA on Saturday. Also note, other than the injuries, the Oilers also have to deal with illness to forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The goaltenders are no comparison either, Edmonton netminder Cam Talbot has dropped three straight and owns a 3.89 GAA while losing five of his last six, while Corey Crawford has won five straight vs. the Oilers behind a 1.23 GAA. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on CHICAGO.
AAA Sports
|
11-14-15 |
Avalanche v. Canadiens -190 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-190 |
27 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens.
We look for the 13-2 Habs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Avs as well after winning the first two of their road trip, a 4-0 effort in Philadelphia on Tuesday before rallying for a 3-2 victory over Boston on Thursday. Colorado could be without the services of captain Gabriel Landeskog as well, who was ejected in the second period vs. the Bruins for an illegal hit to Boston forward Brad Marchand. Montreal is 7-0-1 at home this year and is 4-0-2 in its last six overall despite playing without starting goaltender Carey Price. Backup Mike Condon has posted a tiny 1.81 GAA in six starts in his absence and will be eager to atone for a 4-3 shootout loss in Pittsburgh on Wednesday: "(Condon) played great and gave us a chance," captain Max Pacioretty said afterwards. "He had another outstanding game and in the next game we have to play a little better in front of him." Note that Colorado is 3-6 (-2.9 units) in all non-conference games this season, while Montreal is 24-17 (4.4 units) in its last 41 when playing with two days of rest. Lay the price with confidence on the CANADIENS.
AAA Sports
|
11-13-15 |
Blue Jackets v. Penguins -180 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-180 |
28 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
No need to overanalyze this one, we look for the surging Penguins to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Pittsburgh is coming off a 4-3 win over Montreal in a shootout on Wednesday. The Pens will be extra motivated today after Columbus took three of four from them last year. Columbus comes in off a 5-3 loss to Vancouver on Tuesday, blowing a one-goal third-period lead by conceding two gals in a 4:47 span. Blue Jackets goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky owns a pedestrian 2.98 GAA in seven regular-season starts at Pittsburgh, while Fleury is 5-2-0 with a 2.30 GAA in seven-regular season home starts vs. the Jackets (note that Fleury is currently among the league leaders as well with a 2.01 GAA to open the season). Also note that the Pens possess one of the league's top penalty kills at 87.5 percent. Play on PITTSBURGH.
AAA Sports
|
11-12-15 |
Oilers v. Coyotes -140 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Coyotes.
We're finally buying into the Arizona Coyotes and think they'll win a sixth straight vs. the Oilers tonight. Arizona comes into this one having won three of its last four, most recently rallying to beat Anaheim 4-3 in OT on Monday, before a 3-2 win over the Kings on Tuesday. A date vs. the Oilers is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as Arizona would sweep the five-game season series a year ago; note that goaltender Mike Smith is 10-0-1 with a 2.42 GAA in his last 12 starts vs. Edmonton. The Oilers are definitely due for a letdown in this spot as well after a 4-3 OT win over Anaheim just last night. Arizona has home ice advantage, a superior offense due to the fact that the Oilers are injured, as well as the big situational factor that Edmonton played just last night. Three big factors working in our favor here, there's no question that the price is right, we're definitely pulling the trigger on the COYOTES.
AAA Sports
|
11-12-15 |
Devils v. Blackhawks -180 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-180 |
30 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Blackhawks.
Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, we fully expect the home side to come in focused on the task at hand and to take advantage of this favorable matchup tonight. This is also a revenge game after the teams met Friday with the Devils winning 4-2 at home. Chicago though would bounce back with a 4-2 home win over Edmonton Sunday, Patrick Kane has scored in four straight games and has seven goals and ten assists on a ten-game point streak. New Jersey would go on to beat the Canucks 4-3 on Sunday, before stumbling in a 2-0 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday. We expect another letdown here, note that the Hawks are 7-1-1 at home this year with at least a point from the last eight. Both teams goaltenders have been struggling of late and certainly Corey Schneider's lifetime 3.04 GAA against Chicago is nothing to write home about, so we'll call this department a "wash." Chicago though has the motivational and situational factors working in its favor and that makes this a price that we can live with paying; play on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
11-07-15 |
Penguins v. Flames +110 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
110 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames.
This is a great "situational" play, we look for the home side to take full advantage and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Pittsburgh has won six straight, including a hard-fought 2-1 win in Edmonton just last night. This is the finale of the Pens' Western road swing, one in which they've won every game to this point and suffice it to say, in our professional opinion this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. And to say this is a "revenge" game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement, as Pittsburgh has won nine of the last ten in the series. The hungry Flames are coming off just their second win in seven home games this year with Thursday's 2-1 OT victory over Philadelphia. Note that Pittsburgh is -4.4 units after a three game unbeaten streak the last three years, while Calgary is +4.3 units the L3 seasons after allowing a single goal in a contest which has gone to overtime. Play on the FLAMES.
AAA Sports
|
11-04-15 |
Panthers v. Ducks -145 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Anaheim Ducks.
Anaheim is just 2-7-2 but is coming off a decisive 4-2 win over Nashville on Sunday and we look for this team to carry that momentum over here. Goaltender Frederik Andersen made 40 saves and the Ducks would score three times in the first period: "It's OK as long as we don't think that's the be-all and end-all," coach Bruce Boudreau assessed last night. "We have to build on it. We have to put things together." Florida comes in off back-to-back losses, going 1 for 9 on the powerplay in that span. Note that Florida is 17-31 (-11.9 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while Anaheim is 52-19 (+28.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous outing. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on the DUCKS.
AAA Sports
|
11-03-15 |
Kings v. Blues -130 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Blues.
Sometimes we feel that it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at situational, motivational and other trend based factors and other times we believe that a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and that's definitely the case here. The Blues are finding ways to win despite a number of key injuries, most recently David Backes posted his first two goals of the season in a 3-2 OT win over the Wild on Saturday. The Kings had been the hottest team in the league until falling 4-2 in Chicago just last night (we had the Hawks in that one) and suffice it to say, we definitely feel that this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visiting side in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Also note that the visitors are expected to start backup goaltender Jhonas Enroth in place of the now tired Jon Quick. We'll give the nod to the red hot Jake Allen between the pipes. Note that LA is just 18-21 (-9.6 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while St. Louis is 18-11 (+3.6 units) after playing three consecutive home games. Play on the BLUES.
AAA Sports
|
11-02-15 |
Kings v. Blackhawks -120 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Chicago Blackhawks.
After a rocky start, the Kings have won seven straight. Chicago has won five straight on home ice but returns home after a lacklustre road trip, dropping the final two by allowing a combined eight goals, including a 5-4 setback at Minnesota on Friday. We base our picks primarily on "situations," and there's no question that this one sets up fantastically: LA has been off since Halloween and comes in off seven straight victories. It's not too hard to imagine the Kings coming into this one a bit complacent. It's also not too hard to see LA "looking ahead" to its game tomorrow night in St. Louis. Conversely, Chicago doesn't play again until Wednesday and will be looking to shake off some shaky play with a concerted effort in friendly confines. The price is definitely right in this situation as well, the value is simply too good to turn down, play on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
11-01-15 |
Predators v. Ducks -115 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Anaheim Ducks.
Nashville beat Anaheim 5-1 on October 22nd. The Predators are 7-1-2 to open the year, while the Ducks are 1-7-2. The Predators come to town off a disheartening 4-3 OT loss to LA just last night and suffice it to say, we feel that this one sets up as a classic spot bet on a couple of different fronts. Not only will the Ducks be looking to avenge the earlier loss, they also catch a tired Predators team coming off a loss less than 24 hours ago; they simply don't set up much better than this from a "situational" stand-point. "We do need a break and we're not getting them right now and that's what usually happens when a dark cloud's over you," Ducks' coach Bruce Boudreau said of his team last night. We're banking on ANAHEIM taking advantage of this situation, lay the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
10-31-15 |
Bruins v. Lightning -165 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-165 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, despite having already beaten Boston earlier in the year, Tampa Bay has regressed in its last few games and will be desperate for a victory today. And after opening the season poorly, the Bruins have bounced back nicely, but come to town after a 3-1 win in Florida just last night. Note that Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop is 3-0-0 with a 2.59 GAA in his last three against Boston, while Tuukka Rask is expected to sit in the second game of the back to back in favor of Jonas Gustavsson. For this selection, we're not looking at recent results whatsoever, it's a fantastic "situational" play; also note that the Tampa is 51-30 (+12 units) vs. division opponents. Lay the price with confidence on the LIGHTNING.
AAA Sports
|
10-27-15 |
Montreal Canadiens v. Vancouver Canucks +114 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
114 |
30 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* UNDERDOG SUPER PLAY on the Vancouver Canucks.
We feel the table is finally set for a Montreal letdown tonight, the Canucks have lost four straight and also play with revenge after the Habs beat them 3-1 back on December 9th in the team's last meeting. So far the Canadiens have been unstoppable, dominating in every single facet of the game, but there's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the team which hasn't played since Saturday and which opens the start of a tough three-game Western road swing, with outings at Edmonton and Calgary back-to-back starting on Thursday night. And for the desperate Canucks, tonight's contest takes on added importance as its the finale of a five-game homestand before the team hits the road for a couple of tough ones vs. Dallas and Arizona respectively. Desperation breeds motivation and success leads to complacency, great value indeed on VANCOUVER in this matchup.
AAA Sports
|
10-24-15 |
Detroit Red Wings v. Vancouver Canucks -150 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-150 |
33 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* LATE-NIGHT BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on the Vancouver Canucks.
The Wings are coming off a disheartening 3-2 OT loss in Calgary just last night and catch a rested and determined Canucks team which will be eager to punch one into the win column tonight after starting the season 0-4 in front of the home town crowd: "We have to be grittier and stop thinking home ice is going to come easy for us," Vancouver centre Henrik Sedin said last night. "You can't start making plays at the blue lines, trying to make the cute plays. You have to be direct and get pucks deep and go from there. We haven't done enough of that." The Canucks will now look to make the most of this prime situation and of a Red Wings team which has been outscored 7-2 after the second period during a four-game slide. Also note that the visitors will be starting their backup goaltender tonight, Petr Mrazek has allowed three goals in each of his three games (all on the road), losing two. And note, the last time that Canucks' goaltender Ryan Miller faced the Wings, he'd make 29 saves in the 4-1 victory back in early January. Both teams are desperate for a win, but Detroit is tired and VANCOUVER is playing at home. That's good enough for us, lay the price with confidence.
AAA Sports
|
10-24-15 |
Arizona Coyotes v. Ottawa Senators -162 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-162 |
30 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Ottawa Senators.
We played the Senators in their game vs. the Devils last time out and we're obviously feeling as bitter as the team itself as it would let a 4-2 lead slip away with under five minutes to play, only to then lose 5-4 in the shootout. Suffice it to say, we look for the home side to take its frustrations out on this floundering Coyotes team which opened the season with three straight wins, but has since come unraveled with four consecutive losses, allowing a ghastly 16 goals in the process. Also note that Mike Smith has been destroyed by the Sens whenever he's faced them, last season he'd allow 10 goals during losses of 5-1 and 7-2 in January and was benched in the third of the second setback. More bad news for the visitors, they've lost seven of their last eight in Ottawa since 2000. Also note that the Sens will be especially hungry this evening as they've yet to even win in front of the home town crowd this season. The situational factors working in favor of the home side make this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying; play on the SENATORS.
AAA Sports
|
10-22-15 |
New Jersey Devils v. Ottawa Senators -173 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-173 |
27 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Ottawa Senators.
Andrew Hammond is set to make his season debut between the pipes for the Senators and we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Hammond finished last year with a 20-1-2 mark, helping his team to one of the wild-card spots. Hammond has been out with a strained groin since the preseason but is now ready to go. The home side also comes in plenty rested, it hasn't played since a 4-3 shootout loss to Nashville on Saturday. We feel that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for New Jersey which has posted back-to-back OT wins after losing its first four games, most recently a 3-2 win at Arizona on Tuesday. Note that the Devils are a poor 23-36 (-11 units) after a non-conference game, while Ottawa is 32-30 (+2.3 units) in its last 62 after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. Lay the price with confidence on OTTAWA.
AAA Sports
|
10-17-15 |
San Jose Sharks v. NY Islanders -133 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the New York Islanders.
San Jose is 4-0 to to open the year and comes into this game off a 2-1 win at New Jersey just last night. Suffice it to say, we feel that this now sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and we look for the home side to make the most of this opportunity. The Sharks have been getting superb goaltending from Martin Jones, but he's sitting out tonight to make way for backup Alex Stalock, who was 8-9-2 with a 2.62 GAA in 22 games last year. To say this is a "revenge" game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement as the Sharks are 6-0-2 in their last eight meetings with New York, including going 3-0-1 at Nassau Coliseum. The Isles come in with plenty of momentum as well, after beating the Jets 4-2 on Tuesday, they'd overcome a two-goal deficit in a 4-3 win over Nashville on Thursday. Thomas Greiss is expected to start for the home side, he made a career-high 44 saves in the win over the Predators. The situation sets up perfectly here and there's no question that the price is right; play on the ISLANDERS.
AAA Sports
|
10-17-15 |
Detroit Red Wings v. Montreal Canadiens -157 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Montreal Canadiens.
Detroit comes in short-handed to take on the hottest team in the league and suffice it to say, we don't expect the home side to look past its potentially dangerous visitor. The Habs are most recently coming off a 3-0 win over the Rangers, goaltender Carey Price made 25 saves for the shutout. And that's bad news for a tired Wings team that'll once again be without the services of Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen; Darren Helm and Danny DeKeyser both remain out with injury as well. Note that Price has posted a highly respectable 2.18 GAA while winning five in a row vs. Detroit. There's no need to overanalyze this one, the Wings are coming in off a poor loss just last night and now have to face a rested and focused Habs team that will relish in kicking them when they're down; in our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." Play on the RED WINGS.
AAA Sports
|
10-16-15 |
Minnesota Wild v. Los Angeles Kings -159 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the LA Kings.
LA has never opened a season 0-4 and suffice it to say, we don't expect that to happen today as we look for the hungry home side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. To the Kings credit, their first three opponents have gone a collective 9-1-1 to open the season. Conversely, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors, who have yet to lose a game this year and who come in tired after yesterday's 4-3 win at Arizona. And with another tough road contest at Anaheim on Sunday, there's no question that this is a tough spot for the visitors. Note that the Wild are 27-30 (-9.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, while LA is 14-8 (+5.5 units) after three or more consecutive losses. Lay the price with confidence on the KINGS.
AAA Sports
|
10-16-15 |
Colorado Avalanche v. Anaheim Ducks -175 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-175 |
28 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* play on the Anaheim Ducks.
Sometimes we feel it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at scheduling, motivational and situational factors as well as trends and other numbers, while other times we believe a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that's definitely the case here as we expect the under-achieving home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Ducks are 0-2-1 to open the season: "We're as mad as anybody," Anaheim forward Ryan Kesler confirmed last night. "If we think we're just going to come in on Friday and it's magically going to happen, it's not. We need to put our work boots on. That starts with will and passion." Anaheim lost 4-0 to the red hot Coyotes on Wednesday despite tallying a whopping 37 shots on goal. Frederick Andersen is expected between the pipes for the home side tonight, he's stopped 86 of 90 shots so far this season and had 22 in his only appearances vs. the Avs, a 3-2 OT win back on March 20th. Colorado would then take the next meeting 4-2 on April 3rd. Colorado is having its own issues in goal though as well as Semyon Varlamov has already given up 13 goals while posting a deplorable 5.07 GAA and poor .841 save percentage in three games. Backup Reto Berra could make his first start of the season for the visitors as Varlamov owns a brutal 4.38 GAA during an 0-2-1 stretch vs. Anaheim. Desperation breeds motivation, we look for the DUCKS to finally play like the Ducks and have no issues whatsoever in laying the larger price.
AAA Sports
|
10-16-15 |
Toronto Maple Leafs v. Columbus Blue Jackets -180 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-180 |
25 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* play on the Columbus Blue Jackets.
A couple of horrible teams meet on Friday night and only one can earn its first victory of the year. The Leafs have had five days off between games and we think that rest will lead to rust here and look for the desperate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this extremely favorable matchup. Toronto is 0-2-1 and off to its worst start since a franchise-worst 0-7-1 beginning in 2009. Most recently the Buds fell 5-4 in a shootout to Ottawa on October 10th. Columbus was a sexy pick to make some noise this season, but so far that's not been the case at all, the team is 0-4, most recently coming off a poor 7-3 loss to Ottawa on Wednesday. Sergei Bobrovsky has been a liability for the Jackets to this point, but has a big opportunity to bounce back here as he's enjoyed success throughout his career vs. the Leafs going 7-2-0 with a 1.79 GAA nine lifetime matchups. The Leafs' biggest issue could be between the pipes as well, both James Reimer and Johnathan Bernier have been horrible. It's hard not to imagine the visitors looking ahead to their game in Pittsburgh tomorrow night, while Columbus will need to take advantage with a game in Chicago on Saturday. Lay the price with confidence on the hungry BLUE JACKETS.
AAA Sports
|
10-15-15 |
Ottawa Senators v. Pittsburgh Penguins -167 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Sometimes we feel it's necessary to complete dissect a game, looking at situational, motivational and trend based factors and in some instances we believe that a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that's definitely the case here. The 0-3 Penguins will be desperate to punch one into the win column after a lacklustre start to the 2015/16 season, while the 4-1-0 Senators come in tired and complacent after their 7-3 win at Columbus just last night. It's a perfect situational play that we can take advantage of today. Also note that Ottawa is 11-18 (-4.4 units) in its last 29 when playing on back-to-back days and 21-36 (-18.4 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Pittsburgh is 9-5 (+2.8 units) after three or more consecutive losses. This is a price that we can live with considering all of the above factors, play on the PENGUINS.
AAA Sports
|
10-12-15 |
Florida Panthers v. Philadelphia Flyers -126 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Flyers.
Philadelphia is 0-1-1 to open the year, most recently getting smacked 7-1 in Florida on Saturday. The Flyers return to Philadelphia for their first home game of the season and suffice it to say, we're expecting the team to leave everything on the ice today and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. To say this is a "revenge" game is a bit of an understatement as well, Florida has won four of the last six in the series in Philadelphia and three of the last four overall. And note, aside from the loss on Saturday, Flyers' goaltender Steve Mason has dominated Florida throughout his career, going 7-3-1 with a 1.86 GAA and .942 save percentage. Note that Florida is 13-24 (-10.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Philadelphia is 23-22 (+1.9 units) after a loss by two goal or more in its previous contest. With a game at state rival Carolina tomorrow night, we think the visitors come in complacent, while also getting caught "looking ahead," play on the FLYERS.
AAA Sports
|
10-12-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning v. Boston Bruins +123 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
23 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* "ART OF THE GAME" on the Boston Bruins.
If ever there was a situation where a contest could be considered "do-or-die" after only two games of the regular season, this is it. Boston hasn't started 0-3 in 16 years and suffice it to say, we expect this proud franchise to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Brad Marchand may be out for the home side, but the expected return of captain Zdeno Chara is a huge boost for the B's obviously: "For so long, defense has been our foundation, and we still look for that to be our foundation," Boston defenseman Torey Krug assessed yesterday. "So we've got to tighten up, for sure, whether it's turnovers, (or) we're not looking good on the backcheck, making sure we're looking over our shoulders and finding that extra guy. It's definitely not like us, but we're going to work through that." The Bruins have lost the last two games in this series, both in Tampa, but are 14-3-1 vs. the Bolts at home over the last couple of years. Also note that the Lightning are a poor 32-33 (-10.8 units) after a win by two goals or more, while Boston is 26-20 (+1.2 units) after consecutive losses. A great situation combined with a favorable line, all signs do indeed point to the BRUINS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
10-12-15 |
Winnipeg Jets v. NY Islanders -129 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Islanders.
The Jets have never opened 3-0 in franchise history and suffice it to say, we don't expect them to accomplish that feat tonight. Winnipeg opened the year with a 6-2 win in Boston, before a 3-1 victory in New Jersey on Friday. But with a game against the Rangers tomorrow night, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown/look ahead spot for the visitors. Conversely, after losing 3-2 in OT to the Blackhawks on Friday at their new home, the Isles would then lose the second of the home and home series, 4-1 on Saturday in Chicago; there's no question in our minds which of these teams will be the more motivated one. Note that Winnipeg is 15-25 (-11.5 units) after a victory by two goals or more, while New York is 34-31 (+5.6 units) after allowing four goals or more. This is indeed a great situational play and the price is right as well, play on the ISLANDERS.
AAA Sports
|
10-10-15 |
Edmonton Oilers v. Nashville Predators -179 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Nashville Predators.
The Oilers have missed the postseason for nine straight years and because of that, the team has a spoil of riches in young talent through the draft, including their recent No. 1 overall pick Connor McDavid. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, Edmonton is still a team that lacks identity and while the future would seem bright, another long season is in the cards in 2015/16. McDavid played 18 minutes in the team's 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Thursday and was very ineffective. The whole team was ineffective in fact, the lone goal was a fluke after a Blues defenseman shot it off a teammate and into the net while trying to clear the puck while shorthanded. Nashville is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win over Carolina on opening night, Pekka Rinne made 25 saves and lost his shutout bid on Eric Staal's goal with 1:40 remaining. Rinne is the difference today, he won 41 games last year behind a stellar 2.18 GAA; also note that he posted a ridiculous 0.98 GAA while winning all three vs. Edmonton last season, including a 37-save shutout the last time he faced it on November 27th. The visitors counter with Cam Talbot, who had 28 saves on Thursday and who has had success against the Predators in the past, but we're still going to give the nod to Rinne in this matchup. After a somewhat lacklustre victory over the Hurricanes, we're expecting NASHVILLE to take full advantage of this favorable matchup.
AAA Sports
|
10-10-15 |
Ottawa Senators -135 v. Toronto Maple Leafs |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Ottawa Senators.
To say this is a "revenge game" for the Senators would be a bit of an understatement as they've lost six straight to the Leafs in Toronto. But there's no need to overanalyse this pick, Ottawa has been in Toronto for two days waiting on the Buds to return home, who do so off back-to-back losses, including last night's 4-0 setback at Detroit. Ottawa looked pretty good in Thursday's 3-1 win in Buffalo, behind two goals from Kyle Turris. The Sens closed the 2014/15 regular season on a 6-0-1 run to make their way into the playoffs, the lone blemish in that span was a 3-2 OT loss at Toronto back on April 5th. Toronto comes into this one dog tired and frustrated mentally, it's a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of OTTAWA today.
AAA Sports
|
10-09-15 |
Arizona Coyotes v. Los Angeles Kings -230 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-230 |
26 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
It was a big wake up call for the Kings right out of the gate as the Sharks would smack them 5-1 in their opener (we had the OVER in that one), but with that debacle out of the way, LA can now get back down to business and take out its frustrations on a team which it's absolutely dominated over the last five years: "We were pretty sloppy," Kings' captain Dustin Brown assessed of his effort after the setback to San Jose. "Sloppy in our rushes, sloppy in our (defensive) zone. That was probably most of it. We weren't competing in the corner and making hard plays coming out of our zone. We didn't play very well." A date vs. the Coyotes is just what the doctor ordered for the Kings to get untracked, they've posted three shutouts with five goals allowed during a 4-0-1 stretch in the series, goaltender Jonathan Quick is 3-0-1 with a 1.23 GAA and .949 save percentage in that span. Arizona is a team that's still in the rebuilding stage, remember it went 4-23-1 down the stretch last year with the offense ranking 29th in the league with a meagre 165 total goals (note that in six preseason games the team managed just four goals). Not to be outdone though, Arizona also has big issues between the pipes, veteran Mike Smith posted his worst save percentage (.904) since 2009 and a career worst GAA (3.16) last season and is just 2-4 with a 3.35 GAA and .906 save percentage during a seven-game stretch vs. LA. Lay the price with confidence on the KINGS.
AAA Sports
|
06-15-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning v. Chicago Blackhawks -156 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Blackhawks.
We nailed the UNDER in Game 5, but came up short with the Lightning as our free play in the same game. We are very conscience of never "flip-flopping," but the Finals is obviously a different story, momentum needs to be taken into account and each contest has to be examined individually. Suffice it to say, with a chance to wrap up its fourth Stanley Cup in the last seven years, I look for Chicago to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes. What more can be said about these two teams which hasn't literally been said by every talking head and expert out there? If you're watching the NHL at this time of year then you're more than just a casual fan and the strengths and weaknesses of each side will be well known to you, so breaking down individual player match-ups is pointless. But to sum it up in case you aren't a die-hard fan, each team is stacked with offensive talent and a more than capable defensive unit and both are backed by superb goaltending. Each team is also obviously very tired and injured. The Blackhawks defensive unit was supposed to be a weak point after injuries, but that was not apparent whatsoever in Game 5. For me, it simply comes down to experience and home ice advantage, two major factors which can not be overlooked in this spot and which make this a price that I have no issues in laying; play on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
06-10-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning v. Chicago Blackhawks -155 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Blackhawks.
I played the Blackhawks in Game 3 and obviously came up on the short end of the stick on that one. I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in Game 4 though. As a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups don't really factor into my decision process, but there's no question that these are the types of contests that I always keep my eyes open for. This is do or die for Chicago essentially. Note, since Joel Quenville has been coach of the Blackhawks, the team has gone 40-14 in Games 4-7 according to STATS. And remember, this veteran laden and experienced home side would drop two of its first three games in the 2013 final against Boston and come back to win the series 4-2, while also trailing 3-2 in this year's Western Conference finals after Anaheim's 5-4 OT win in Game 5, only to then outscore the Ducks 10-5 in the next two games. And note, Tampa Bay is just 3-4 (-2.1 units) in the postseason this year when leading in a series, while Chicago is a perfect 3-0 (+3 units) when trailing in a playoff series this season. Get in as fast as you can before this line gets any higher, play on the BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
06-08-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning v. Chicago Blackhawks -150 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-150 |
35 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Blackhawks.
I took the Lightning in Games 1 and 2, but with the shift in venue, I like the Blackhawks to take care of business in their own barn. It's been a highly competitive series thus far. These teams are very evenly matched in all aspects, talented offensive players, smothering defensive units and top tier goaltending. If you're watching the NHL at this time of year, then you're more than just a casual fan, the strengths and weaknesses of each team is well documented at this point, in my opinion individual player match-ups are useless. For me though, home ice advantage simply can't be overlooked in this case; also note that Chicago has been money in the bank in this position for bettors all year long, 15-7 (+1.9 units) after allowing four goals or more. I'm laying the very reasonable mid-sized price on the proven home side BLACKHAWKS.
AAA Sports
|
06-06-15 |
Chicago Blackhawks v. Tampa Bay Lightning -124 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I had the Lightning in Game 1 of this series and if you watched that contest and had Tampa Bay as well, then you likely have a pretty foul taste in your mouth. For the most part the Bolts would control the pace and tempo of from the opening face-off, but a late two minute "brain fart" cost the team the game. If you didn't have a chance to read my Game 1 analysis, I think it's worth a look here as for the most part, the reasoning behind it also directly pertains to this selection:
Chicago is back in the Finals for the third time in the last six seasons with its 5-3 win over the Ducks on Saturday, while the Lightning held on for a 2-0 victory at MSG to advance. Tampa Bay earned home-ice advantage because it had six more points than Chicago during the regular season. Note that these two teams split a pair of regular season games, the Hawks won 3-2 in a shootout on November 11th, before the Bolts struck back with a 4-0 victory on February 27th. Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop was particularly effective against Chicago in those games, stopping 65 of 67 shots, while captain Steven Stamkos was also extremely productive with two goals and three overall points. Tampa Bay may not have the storied history that Chicago does, but it's still the first team ever to play four Original Six teams in one Stanley Cup Playoff. If you're watching the NHL at this time of year, then you're more than just a casual fan, so breaking down individual player match-ups isn't really important, these teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. Both are loaded with plenty of offensive talent and veteran leadership and each is backed by superb goaltending. So where's the advantage? I simply can't understate how important I think that the "home ice advantage" is in Game 1. NO ONE was better on home ice than the Lightning were this season, finishing at 32-8-1. And it's as simple as that for me, in my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on TAMPA BAY.
Also note that the Lightning are 13-3 (+9.8 units) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game and are a perfect 4-0 (+4.4 units) this season when trailing in a playoff series. The value is much too great to turn down, play on TAMPA BAY.
AAA Sports
|
06-03-15 |
Chicago Blackhawks v. Tampa Bay Lightning -115 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
80 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Chicago is back in the Finals for the third time in the last six seasons with its 5-3 win over the Ducks on Saturday, while the Lightning held on for a 2-0 victory at MSG to advance. Tampa Bay earned home-ice advantage because it had six more points than Chicago during the regular season. Note that these two teams split a pair of regular season games, the Hawks won 3-2 in a shootout on November 11th, before the Bolts struck back with a 4-0 victory on February 27th. Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop was particularly effective against Chicago in those games, stopping 65 of 67 shots, while captain Steven Stamkos was also extremely productive with two goals and three overall points. Tampa Bay may not have the storied history that Chicago does, but it's still the first team ever to play four Original Six teams in one Stanley Cup Playoff. If you're watching the NHL at this time of year, then you're more than just a casual fan, so breaking down individual player match-ups isn't really important, these teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. Both are loaded with plenty of offensive talent and veteran leadership and each is backed by superb goaltending. So where's the advantage? I simply can't understate how important I think that the "home ice advantage" is in Game 1. NO ONE was better on home ice than the Lightning were this season, finishing at 32-8-1. And it's as simple as that for me, in my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value," play on TAMPA BAY.
AAA Sports
|
05-26-15 |
NY Rangers v. Tampa Bay Lightning -125 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
26 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
With a chance to end this series at home, I think that Tampa Bay takes full advantage of this situation and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Lightning would be big underdogs in Game 7, the momentum and advantage would be ripped away from them, in my opinion, this is essentially a do-or-die game for Tampa Bay tonight: "You kind of have to realize where you are and kind of use that as a little bit of motivation," Lightning captain Steve Stamkos said last night. "The harsh reality is, some guys in this room may never get the chance to get this far again. Hopefully everybody does, but you never know in this sport." As good as the Rangers are, I think they're running on empty now, they had to overcome the 3-1 deficit to beat the Capitals in seven games and you can tell that they're all just a step-behind the quicker Lightning. I simply feel that the line value is too great to turn down, play on TAMPA BAY.
AAA Sports
|
05-23-15 |
Anaheim Ducks v. Chicago Blackhawks -145 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chicago Blackhawks.
After losing Game 1, the Hawks bounced back in Game 2 and after falling in Game 3, I am fully expecting another bounce back effort here as it's now pretty much do-or-die for Chicago. These teams are very evenly matched, each is loaded with talent up and down the line-up and both are backed by superb goaltending. So beyond the obvious "motivation" factor working in favor of Chicago, it's also important to note that the Hawks are 13-7 (+2.7 units) after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this year. Sometimes I feel it's necessary to completely dissect a game and in others I feel that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and that's definitely the case here. Expect the Ducks to be extremely satisfied in already earning the split and for the BLACKHAWKS to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes for the victory.
AAA Sports
|
05-17-15 |
Chicago Blackhawks v. Anaheim Ducks -135 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
79 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Anaheim Ducks.
These are two really good teams and it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either to win this game, but for a number of different solid common sense reasons, I think we're getting excellent value on the home side in the opener of the Western Conference finals. Both teams are loaded top to bottom with talent, but the Ducks are hungrier. Chicago has the overall experience obviously and while that will play a factor for sure as this series progresses, it won't be one tonight. These teams are both rested, emotions and adrenalin make any "experience" advantage a moot point in Game 1. Coming into this series and before a game has even been played, I will give the Ducks the slight nod in net, 6-foot-4 Frederik Andersen has been solid all year, while Chicago's goaltending has been a bit more tenuous, Corey Crawford would temporarily lose his job this spring to Scott Darling. One other factor to keep in mind is injuries, Anaheim is at 100%, while Chicago will be playing without defenseman Michal Rozsival, who broke his ankle. The Hawks took two of three from the Ducks in the regular season (both in Anaheim), but that just adds fuel to the fire for the home side, note that Anaheim is 18-12 (+4.1 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season. Home ice advantage, hunger, slight goaltending nod, revenge factor, injuries. As mentioned off the top, these two teams are very evenly matched, but these small external factors (coupled with what I feel is a pretty fair price) which I just listed will prove to be the difference in the outcome of Game 1. Play on ANAHEIM.
AAA Sports
|
05-13-15 |
Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -165 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers.
Washington star Alexander Ovechkin has guaranteed a win in Game 7, but I think the visitors are going to have their hands full today and absolutely feel that home ice advantage can not be under-rated in this situation. If history is any precedence, then New York has to be loving its chances today as it's won its last five Game 7's dating back to 2012, including a victory in Pittsburgh last year which capped a rally from a 3-1 deficit and the last two series against the Capitals (2012 and '13). Also note that Rangers' goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 5-0 with a 0.80 GAA and a .937 save percentage in his last five Game 7 appearances. Conversely, history is definitely against the visitors today, all previous series that they led 3-1, Washington has been pushed to Game 7 four times and it's 0-4. Lundqvist and home ice advantage clearly tip the scales in favor of the NEW YORK, definitely making this a price that I can live with paying.
AAA Sports
|
05-12-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning -155 v. Montreal Canadiens |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Habs have put up a valiant effort to make this series 3-2, but I think the gas finally runs out tonight, look for the home side to play with more intensity and to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. These two teams are very evenly matched for the most part, but the trends and the situation are clearly working against the visitors today. I won't get into any individual player match-ups today, this selection is indeed based on the situation and some strong trend based factors, as note that Tampa Bay is a great 10-5 (+3.2 units) this year when playing with two days of rest. Play on the LIGHTNING.
AAA Sports
|
05-09-15 |
Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -116 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Montreal Canadiens.
Montreal dominated in Game 4 and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Tampa has won all five games that it's played at the Bell Centre this season, but I think that trend finally gets bucked here. As I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and with their backs against the wall, I think it'll be all hands on deck for the Habs. The Lightning may have the 3-1 series lead, but a couple of the games could easily have gone either way, with two decided late or in OT, identical 2-1 outcomes for the Bolts. I will give Price the slight nod in net over Bishop today because of the home ice advantage, and with that important factor also clearly in the home side's favor, in my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value; play on the CANADIENS.
AAA Sports
|
05-08-15 |
Anaheim Ducks -140 v. Calgary Flames |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
61 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Anaheim Ducks.
I took the Ducks in Game 3 and obviously suffered the horrible beat, however I believe that Anaheim is still the better team in this series and expect it to find a way to get revenge and bounce back convincingly in Game 4. The Flames were SO lucky, they'd score with 19.5 seconds left in regulation and then won in OT despite putting just 21 shots on net in Game 3. Anaheim held a 40-19 advantage on face-offs as well. Look for Ducks' goaltender Frederick Anderson to bounce back here, while he made just 17 saves on Tuesday, he'd stopped 53 of his previous 54 through the first two games. Calgary's goaltending situation has been much more tenuous, Karri Ramo has looked anything but consistent, but will once again get the nod to start (note that Anaheim is 18-9 (+8.3 units) this year after allowing four goals or more). In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value;" play on the DUCKS.
AAA Sports
|