Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-05-15 | Anaheim Ducks -125 v. Calgary Flames | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Anaheim Ducks. |
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05-02-15 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the New York Rangers. |
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05-01-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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04-30-15 | Calgary Flames v. Anaheim Ducks -185 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Anaheim Ducks. Here is another no-brainer in my opinion, the Ducks are well rested, they’ve played just six games in the last four weeks, after demolishing the Jets in four tries, they’ve had a full seven days off in between. I simply can’t understate how important I feel that rest is at this time of year for a team like Anaheim, which relies heavily on its veteran leadership. The Ducks’ opening series could not have gone any better. While Calgary did not have to go to a decisive Game 7 in its series opening upset over the Vancouver Canucks, it certainly wasn’t easy and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. As a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups are rarely a part of my process and that’s the case here as I feel that there are simply too many external factors working against the Flames today; play on ANAHEIM. AAA Sports |
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04-30-15 | Washington Capitals v. NY Rangers -165 | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 52 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the New York Rangers. Some times I feel that it’s necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational factors, strong O/U trends and line movement etc, but in other instances, I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a game and that’s the case here. Washington is coming off a hard-fought seven game series against the Islanders and it’s reward is a road game vs. a rested New York Rangers team in the second round. New York knocked off the Pens in five games and beat the Capitals three of four times in the regular season. Also note that Washington is just 11-12 (-2 units) when playing with two days of rest this year, while the Rangers are 7-4 (+2.8 units) this season when playing with three days of rest. Expect NEW YORK to take advantage of this primo situation and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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04-27-15 | NY Islanders v. Washington Capitals -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Capitals. |
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04-27-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Detroit Red Wings +100 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Detroit Red Wings. |
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04-24-15 | Minnesota Wild v. St. Louis Blues -135 | 4-1 | Loss | -135 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Blues. |
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04-24-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. NY Rangers -185 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the New York Rangers. |
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04-24-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens -161 | 5-1 | Loss | -161 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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04-22-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Ottawa Senators -110 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Ottawa Senators. I took the Winnipeg Jets in their Game 3 match-up with Anaheim and they were unable to get the job done, ultimately suffering a heart-breaking loss in the overtime period. Ottawa finds itself in an even deeper hole, it’s win or go home for the Senators and I believe the desperation level in which they play with today will ultimatley prove to be the difference in the end. This series has been a lot closer than what the score indicates, a couple of bounces here or there and the Sens could easily be sitting with the series lead. These teams are very evenly matched in every single department, the shots have simply not been going Ottawa’s way. I think that finally changes this evening, note that Ottawa is 17-4 (+17.1 units) this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. In my opionion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the SENATORS. AAA Sports |
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04-21-15 | Nashville Predators v. Chicago Blackhawks -157 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Blackhawks. |
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04-21-15 | Washington Capitals +120 v. NY Islanders | 2-1 | Win | 120 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Capitals. |
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04-21-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning -120 v. Detroit Red Wings | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bay Lightning. |
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04-20-15 | Anaheim Ducks v. Winnipeg Jets -125 | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 34 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Winnipeg Jets. |
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04-17-15 | Calgary Flames +131 v. Vancouver Canucks | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames. |
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04-17-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens -134 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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04-15-15 | Calgary Flames +131 v. Vancouver Canucks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 131 | 57 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Calgary Flames. |
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04-15-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 54 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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04-15-15 | NY Islanders +131 v. Washington Capitals | 4-1 | Win | 131 | 54 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the New York Islanders. |
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04-11-15 | New Jersey Devils v. Florida Panthers -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Florida Panthers. |
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04-11-15 | Montreal Canadiens -183 v. Toronto Maple Leafs | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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04-11-15 | Minnesota Wild v. St Louis Blues -158 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Blues. |
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04-02-15 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Florida Panthers -167 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Florida Panthers. |
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04-02-15 | Washington Capitals v. Montreal Canadiens -133 | 5-4 | Loss | -133 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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03-30-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -123 | 5-3 | Loss | -123 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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03-25-15 | Colorado Avalanche -140 v. Edmonton Oilers | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are a desperate team and desperation is often a factor in which the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. That’s the case here in my opinion, I think the visitors come to play today and find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. Colorado hasn’t been helping itself, it’s coming off back to back losses, most recently in Calgary on Monday. The Avs are 11th in the West with ten games remaining: "I will never say never," Colorado coach Patrick Roy assessed last night. "This is a team that I'm proud of. When you're wearing the Avalanche logo, you battle. ... Every time you're going to be on the ice, you're going to compete." The Avs reamin tough on the penalty kill, opponents have failed on all 16 man advantages in the team’s last eight road contests and it’s killed 31 of 32 penalties over the last 14 games overall. Edmonton continues to limp towards the finish line, it’s most recently coming off a 4-1 home loss to Winnipeg on Monday and is allowing an average of 4.3 goals in losing 11 of its last 14 (note that the Oilers have also allowed opponents to go 10 of 29 on the power play in their last eight games). Note that the Avs are 19-11 (+8.1 units) this season vs. teams with losing records, while Edmonton is just 13-38 (-18.2 units) in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Look for COLORADO to get back into the winners circle tonight. AAA Sports |
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03-24-15 | Los Angeles Kings v. NY Rangers -143 | 4-2 | Loss | -143 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Rangers. |
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03-21-15 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Calgary Flames -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Calgary Flames. |
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03-14-15 | Nashville Predators v. Los Angeles Kings -155 | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Kings. |
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03-14-15 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Vancouver Canucks -215 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Vancouver Canucks. |
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03-12-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens -199 | 5-2 | Loss | -199 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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03-08-15 | Calgary Flames v. Ottawa Senators -140 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Ottawa Senators. |
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03-05-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Los Angeles Kings -145 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. |
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03-05-15 | Calgary Flames v. Boston Bruins -200 | 4-3 | Loss | -200 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Bruins. |
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03-03-15 | Los Angeles Kings -213 v. Edmonton Oilers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. |
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03-03-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Minnesota Wild -166 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Minnesota Wild. |
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02-27-15 | Colorado Avalanche v. Dallas Stars -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Stars. |
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02-25-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Anaheim Ducks -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks. |
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02-24-15 | Calgary Flames v. NY Rangers -165 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Rangers. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. Calgary owns the league’s second-worst mark against the East, which doesn’t bode well for the team about to embark on a season-high, seven-game road trip. The home side trails the Islanders by just two points in the Metropolitan Division with three games in hand thanks to a 9-1-2 stretch: "We're two points out of first place in our (division), a very tough conference so we'll take it a day at a time and we're going to focus on Calgary first," coach Alain Vigneault said. New York will look to take advantage of a Flames team whose 8-12-2 mark vs. the East give them a winning percentage better than only NHL-worst Buffalo. And note that Calgary has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, just 7-9 (-1.8 units) after playing three consecutive home games, while New York is interestingly 16-8 (+6.1 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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02-22-15 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. NY Rangers -205 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Rangers. Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, I think New York should be an even bigger one as I definitely feel that all signs point to a comfortable victory for the home side. The Rangers have been surging behind the great play of Rick Nash, who will be extra motivated today to beat his former team; note that Nash’s 37 goals are second in the NHL and he has nine goals and six assists during his team’s 8-1-2 stretch, most recently handling Buffalo 3-1 on Friday. Columbus is playing the finale of a five game trip and is coming off a 3-1 loss at Montreal just last night; suffice it to say, there’s no question in my mind that the team is going to come in with “heavy legs” this evening. No need to overanalyze this one, lay the price with confidence on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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02-18-15 | Minnesota Wild v. Calgary Flames +100 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Calgary Flames. Minnesota was the hottest team coming out of the All Star break but has since shown some cracks in the armor and off their first regulation loss in a month, I think the Wild stumble again here. Calgary is severely under valued in this spot in my opinion, it’s been playing extremely well, including a 4-3 come from behind win over Boston on Monday and it will also have the “revenge” factor on its side after falling 1-0 at home to Minnesota back on January 29th. The Flames have actually won 11 of their last 15 and have a league-high ten victories when trailing after two periods. The Wild come in off a tough 3-2 loss at Vancouver on Monday (I had the Canucks in that one), and while goaltender Devan Dubnyk has clearly been a bright spot for the team since coming over in a trade, I think he’ll once again have his hands full vs. Calgary which is 12-11 (+3.4 units) after allowing three goals or more in its previous contest. And note that the Wild have struggled all year in this spot, just 10-18 (-9.9 units) vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value, play on the FLAMES. AAA Sports |
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02-18-15 | Detroit Red Wings v. Chicago Blackhawks -166 | 3-2 | Loss | -166 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Blackhawks. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I think those trends continue here. Detroit has yet to win a game since goaltender Jimmy Howard returned from injury, the Wings most recently falling 2-0 to Montreal on Monday. Chicago will look to take advantage and plays with revenge here after falling 4-1 to Detroit on November 14th. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum, most recently defeating New Jersey 3-1 on Friday and the Penguins 2-1 on Sunday, improving to 4-0-2 in their last six overall. Conversely, Detroit has lost three straight and I think will be in tough here against a Chicago defense which has allowed 10 goals during a 3-0-2 stretch at home, where the Hawks also post 39.5 shots on goal per game to lead the NHL. Also note that Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford is 16-6-3 with a 1.98 GAA in 26 games played vs. the Wings. Detroit is near the top of the league on the power play, but the Hawks are near the top of the NHL with an 87.9 penalty kill percentage and have killed 14 of 15 chances over the past eight, negating the visitors one strength. Note that Detroit is 8-11 (-4.9 units) vs. teams with winning records this year, while Chicago is 13-6 (+3.7 units) in non-conference games this season. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the HAWKS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-17-15 | Washington Capitals v. Pittsburgh Penguins -145 | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Pittsburgh Penguins. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Pens sit three points ahead of Washington, so to say both teams will be focused on the task at hand would be a bit of an understatement I think. Pittsburgh will also be especially determined to bounce back here after a 2-1 shootout loss at Chicago on Sunday; note that the Pens are 4-2-1 over their last seven games despite failing to find the back of the net on 15 power plays. This is also a double revenge game for the home side after falling 3-0 in Pittsburgh on December 27th and 4-0 Washington on January 28th. I think this does in fact set up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Capitals though after their big 5-3 win over the Ducks on Sunday. Also note that Penguins’ goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury comes into this game on fire, posting a minuscule 0.49 GAA over his last four contests. And note that Washington is just 5-9 (-5.3 units) after a win by 2 goals or more, while Pittsburgh is 8-3 (+3.6 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the PENGUINS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-16-15 | Minnesota Wild v. Vancouver Canucks -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver plays with double revenge today after losing both earlier games vs. the Wild this season and suffice it to say, I think the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Look for Minnesota to finally have a letdown here, it’s been nearly unbeatable since acquiring goaltender Devan Dubnyk, who is 10-1-1 with a 1.60 GAA since a January 14th trade with the Coyotes. Dubnyk and the usually stout defense has shown some cracks in the armor of late though, most recently coming off a somewhat lackulstre 6-3 win over lowly Carolina on Saturday. Vancouver is waffling through a 5-6-0 stretch and is most recently coming off a 3-2 loss at Calgary on Saturday, but take note that the Canucks are 6-4 (+1.5 units) in their last ten in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Minneosta is just 2-4 (-3.1 units) in its last six after scoring six goals or more. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on VANCOUVER. AAA Sports |
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02-14-15 | Washington Capitals v. Los Angeles Kings -134 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* REVENGE ROUT on the LA Kings. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor that professional sports handicappers like to utilize whenever they can. Some times it can be over-rated, but I don’t think that’s the case here as the suddenly surging Kings will look to atone for a 4-0 loss at Washington on February 3rd. LA is seeking its fourth straight win after a convincing 5-3 win over the Flames on Thursday night. I had LA in that one as well. The Kings have scored 13 goals during the win streak and their 40 points at home are the most after 29 games in team history. Both teams have been getting strong goaltending of late, so I will call that department a “wash,” but note that Washington is just 8-10 (-6.1 units) after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest, while LA is 22-12 (+6.1 units) in its last 34 after a three-game unbeaten streak. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the KINGS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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02-12-15 | Calgary Flames v. Los Angeles Kings -157 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. The Flames have been on quite a roll of late, but I think the team finally has a letdown tonight and expect the home side to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. To say this is a “revenge game” would be a bit of an understatement I think as Calgary has won four straight in the series. This sets up as a letdown spot for the Flames, they can’t help but feel contented with themselves after winning four of five, including a dominant 4-1 win over the Sharks on Monday. LA has quietly been turning things around of late, it’s won back-to-back games for the first time since mid December, most recently a 4-3 victory over Columbus on Monday: "We're fighting for spots in the standings," said Kings forward Dwight King after the win over the Jackets. "It's pretty obvious that we need to have this effort every night." While LA goaltender Jonathan Quick has struggled against the Flames recently, I still think the netminders are a “wash” in this one and believe that Jonas Hiller will have his hands full with this revenge minded Kings team. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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02-09-15 | Calgary Flames v. San Jose Sharks -152 | 4-1 | Loss | -152 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the day. These teams have played four times this season and the vistors have won three, including two straight, most recently a 3-1 victory in Calgary on February 4th. Revenge is a very powerful motivating factor that handicappers will always try to take advantage of and I think its sets up perfectly for us here. Note that both clubs come in off disheartening losses, Calgary was blanked 4-0 by Pittsburgh on Friday, while San Jose is coming off a 5-4 home loss to Carolina. It’s interesting to note that the Sharks are 7-2-1 vs. teams that have reached the 70-point plateau, but just 3-6-1 vs. Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton and Columbus. Both team’s goaltenders are coming off shaky outings, that department is a “wash.” While the SHARKS have had issues with the Flames this year, I feel that all the conditions are right for a little payback tonight, in my opinion, this is great line value. AAA Sports |
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02-08-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Boston Bruins -138 | 3-1 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Bruins. Some times I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game and look at every single angle and factor and in others I believe that more “common sense” approach is the best was to handicap a contest and that’s definitely the case here as the home side plays with “triple revenge,” and it’s this crucial motivational advantage which I believe will turn out to influence the outcome of this contest. Both teams played and won just last night, the slight advantage obviously goes to the home side in that scenario. Note that Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is 8-2-3 with a tiny 1.67 GAA in his last 13 starts for Boston. Rask has had issues with the Habs in the past but I think will be on top of his game today. Don’t over think this one, in my opinion all signs point to a comfortable home win for the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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02-05-15 | San Jose Sharks v. Vancouver Canucks -145 | 5-1 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Vancouver Canucks. Some times the revenge factor is a powerful tool that handicapers utilize, but in some situations it can be completely overrated, and that’s the case here I feel as I think the home side will take advantage of a tired San Jose team and post a third straight win in the season series in the process. Vancouver is two points behind San Jose who is coming off a listless 3-1 loss in Calgary just last night and will be especially motivated in my opinion as the Sharks have in fact won five straight in Vancouver. So while the Sharks come in gassed and disheartened, the Canucks come in with plenty of momentum after rallying to beat the Jets 3-2 on Tuesday. Vancouver goaltender Ryan Miller looks to get back on track, a date vs. San Jose is just what the doctor ordered as he owns a 1.55 GAA while winning seven straight vs. it. The CANUCKS are a great spot bet in my opinion. AAA Sports |
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02-03-15 | Los Angeles Kings v. Washington Capitals -132 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Washington Capitals. For a number of different reasons I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Both teams come in struggling and I simply can’t understate how important I believe home ice advantage will be in this one. Washington is coming off a 4-3 home loss to St. Louis: "We just make mistakes that cost us the game," star forward Alexander Ovechkin assessed last night. "We didn't execute the power play, we had a bad change when (Blues winger Alexander) Steen scored their second one. You can't do like that. I'm not going to put a finger on someone. We're going to learn from that, and we're going to move forward." LA is making its second stop on a five-game road trip vs. the Eastern Conference and is coming off a listless 3-1 loss to Boston on Saturday; note that Kings are just 1-5-2 their last eight on the road while averaging just 2.00 goals per game (and note that LA is just 4-6 (-2 units) this year when playing with two days of rest). To say this is a revenge game would be a bit of an understatement as well I think as LA is 7-0-1 in their last nine in Washington, including two shootout victories last year. LA goaltender Jonathan Quick is just 3-8-5 with a 2.84 GAA on the road this year and his counterpart Braden Holtby rested vs. St. Louis and is 8-0-2 with a 1.68 GAA in his last ten home starts. In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the CAPITALS. AAA Sports |
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02-02-15 | Winnipeg Jets +109 v. Calgary Flames | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on the Winnipeg Jets. As I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation, I think the Jets, who have lost three straight, offer pretty good value here. Calgary is coming off a big 4-2 come from behind victory to beat Edmonton on Saturday. The Flames have been playing better of late, but before going 2 for 9 with the man advantage over their last three games, note that they’d gone just 4 for 57 in their previous 17 contests. Before losing three straight, the Jets had killed 19 of 20 penalties while winning five in a row, but have allowed opponents to convert on 7 of 13 chances during the slide. The revenge factor comes into play in this one, Winnipeg fell 4-1 to Calgary on October 19th. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as take note that the Jets are 11-6 (+5.6 units) this season after allowing four goals or more, while Calgary is just 7-12 (-1.4 units) vs. teams with winning records. I think the writing is on the wall and a minor upset is in the cards, play on the JETS. AAA Sports |
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01-28-15 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Los Angeles Kings +100 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Kings. For a number of different reasons I think the home side finds a way to get the job done and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” LA entered the break on a four game losing streak. Chicago closed the first half by winning two straight. From a situational stand point, I think the Kings will clearly be the “hungrier” team tonight. Now also throw in the fact that this is a revenge scenario for the home side after falling 4-1 to the Blackhawks in LA back on November 29th and this play becomes even stronger. Note that Chicago is 3-4 (-5 units) when playing with three or more days of rest this year, while LA is 4-2 (+1.2 units) after three or more consecutive losses. There’s no time like the present to turn their season around, I think Chicago comes in a bit “hung over” from the break while the home side comes in focused on the task at hand; play on the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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01-27-15 | Minnesota Wild -126 v. Edmonton Oilers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Wild. I think the visitors offer very good value in this spot. The Wild will be hungry to avoid a third straight setback and a date vs. the lowly Oilers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion as they’ve won three straight in the series. Edmonton’s minus-49 goal differential ranks 28th in the league, which is just what Minnesota needs as the team would lose eight of ten heading into the break. But as mentioned off the top, the Wild have had the Oilers number for quite some time, they’ve actually won eight of the last nine meetings North of the border. And note, I think that the visitors have the clear advantage in goal tonight, as Devan Dubnyk owns a 3-0-0 and 0.97 GAA vs. the Oilers this year as a member of the Coyotes. And note that despite it’s struggles this season, Minnesota is in fact 11-6 (+2.5 units) vs. clubs with losing records, while Edmonton is a poor 5-15 (-9 units) in the same position. In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the WILD. AAA Sports |
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01-21-15 | Los Angeles Kings v. San Jose Sharks -130 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. For a number of different reasons, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. I actually released a free play on the Kings in their 2-1 OT home loss to Calgary on Monday and while I don’t usually “flip-flop” from game-to-game, I simply feel this is a poor spot for them and that the home side offers extremely good line value in this one. San Jose will be playing “hungry” today, its the final game for both teams before the All-Star break but the Sharks are also looking to avoid a third straight defeat at home. Most recently the Sharks lost 5-2 to New Jersey on Monday, dropping them to 1-4-1 at home since December 30th. Unfortunately for the Kings, they’re mired in a slump right now as well, the loss to the Flames completed a dismal 1-2-4 home stand, dropping the defending Stanley Cup champions one point behind Calgary for the Western Conference’s final wild-card spot. Note that LA is 7-8 (-5.4 units) vs. division opponents and 10-14 (-7.6 units) vs. teams with winning records this year. And note that San Jose is interestingly 6-1 (+5 units) this year after playing three or more consecutive home games. In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value”; play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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01-20-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins -155 v. Philadelphia Flyers | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins. I think the Penguins offer pretty good value in this spot. It’s never easy to win on the road in any professional sport, but I believe the visitors will be razor focused on the task at hand after losing two straight. This is also a revenge spot for the Pens after falling 5-3 to the Flyers at home back on November 22nd. Also note that the Flyers are coming off a 7-4 loss in Long Island just yesterday afternoon. Pittsburgh will host Chicago on Wednesday, putting added emphasis onto tonight’s game. This selection is all about the “situation,” in my opinion the stars have aligned and the value is too great to turn down; play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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01-19-15 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Toronto Maple Leafs -155 | 4-1 | Loss | -155 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Some times I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons to back up my analysis and in others, I believe that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a game, and that’s the case here as I finally look for the home side to come in focused on the task at hand, to avenge an earlier loss and to ultimately find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Leafs are looking to avoid their longest skid of the year and as I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation; note that Toronto is 3-1 (+2.2 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses. And note that this is a spot that Carolina has really struggled in for bettors, it’s just 10-12 (-2.2 units) in its last 22 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the desperation level in which the home side will be playing with today absolutely justifies in laying what I deem to be an extremely reasonable mid-sized price. AAA Sports |
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01-15-15 | Detroit Red Wings v. St Louis Blues -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the St. Louis Blues. Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, I think the home side should be a much bigger one; when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect St. Louis to find a way to get the job done. The Blues have won five straight and I think the momentum continues here. St. Louis actually plays with revenge as well after the Wings won 3-0 in the last meeting April 13th. And as good as the Wings have been playing of late, the Blues have been playing even better, they’ve outscored opponents 28-10 during their win skein. Note that Detroit is actually a poor 5-8 (-5.2 units) vs. teams with winning records, while St. Louis is a superb 12-7 (+3 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. The Wings run has been put together against bottom feeders, I think the cream rises to the top today, play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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01-13-15 | Florida Panthers v. Winnipeg Jets -135 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Winnipeg Jets. For a number of different reasons I believe the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Panthers are arguably the hottest team in the league right now, but I think all their over-achieving catches up them here and look for this total to fall below the posted number once the final horn blares. If history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances as it’s won five straight North of the border in this series. Let’s give credit where credit is due, Florida has played extremely well of late, I simply think this is a bad spot for it. Note that the Panthers are a horrible 1-4 (-2.7 units) after a win by two goals or more this year, while Winnipeg is a fantastic 10-4 (+7.2 units) after allowing four goals or more. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value”; play on WINNIPEG. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Colorado Avalanche -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Colorado Avalanche. Some times I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at movitational, situational and trend based factors as well as scheduling and in others I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that’s the case here. Neither team has been playing well of late, but Colorado plays with “revenge” after falling in Philadelphia earlier in the year. And from a trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this, note that Philadelphia is 1-8 (-7.7 units) after losing by 2 goals or more in its last contest, while Colorado is 4-2 (+2.8 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game. In my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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12-22-14 | Arizona Coyotes v. Vancouver Canucks -190 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Vancouver Canucks. Some times I believe that it’s completely necessary to look at a contest from every angle possible, situational and motivational reasons, also scouring the internet for lopsided trends or numbers to take advantage of, and in other instances I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to approach a contest, and that’s definitely the case here as I look for Vancouver to build off a hard fought 3-2 OT win over Calgary on Saturday, while also avenging a loss to the Coyotes earlier in the season: “It gives the boys a little confidence," goaltender Ryan Miller assessed last night. "We were doing a lot right within this streak and we got rewarded with some bounces tonight." This is simply a tough spot for Arizona which is making the second stop on a three-game road trip, with another contest in Edmonton tomorrow night. Last months setback was the first loss in Millers career vs. the Coyotes, dropping him to a still spectacular 7-1-0 with a 1.73 GAA vs. them lifetime. The only question in my mind is, will Vancouver come in focused, or will it get caught looking past the lowly desert dogs? And a quick look at the Canucks schedule reveals the answer, with their next game not until Sunday at home, there’s no reason at all for a hungry Vancouver team to do anything but take care of business tonight; lay the price with confidence on the CANUCKS. AAA Sports |
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12-20-14 | Calgary Flames v. Vancouver Canucks -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Vancouver Canucks. For a number of different reasons, I think the hungry Canucks will take advantage of this tired Flames club. I bet on Calgary last night, but the Flames would come up short, losing 2-1 to Dallas, pushing the team’s losing streak to seven. I rarely play against a team that I was on the night before, but the home side comes in equally as motivated after losing five straight. And if history is any precedence, then the Canucks have to be loving their chances as Calgary has lost eight straight in the series, while also losing seven straight to Vancouver. And from a trend based stand point, this play is extremely strong, as note that the Flames are a poor 6-8 (-1.2 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while the Canucks are 6-4 (+1.2 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous contest. A plethora of favorable factors and trends collide making this a price I can live with paying; play on VANCOUVER. AAA Sports |
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12-19-14 | Dallas Stars v. Calgary Flames -111 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Calgary Flames. I am a firm believer that desperation breeds motivation and as such, fully expect the home side to come in focused on the task at hand as it looks to break a six game slide. The Flames have been outscored 21-10 in the last six games, but note that they haven’t had a longer losing streak in regulation since dropping eight in a row during the 1998 season; suffice it to say, I’m not expecting the string of futility to get carried over here. "It's so easy when you're winning to go out there and make things happen when things are bouncing your way," said Calgary center Matt Stajan, who had an assist in Tuesday's 5-2 loss to the Rangers. "The real test is when nothing's going your way and you're in a funk like we are. This is where we have to step up." I believe the favorable bounces return for the Flames today, despite being unable to find the back of the net of late, note that Calgary has in fact outshot five of its last six opponents, including a 31-23 edge over New York. And in my opinion, that clearly doesn’t bode well for the Stars who allow a league-worst 3.4 GPG. Note that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Dallas as well after it’s 2-0 win over Vancouver on Wednesday (and note that the Stars had given up at least five goals seven times over their previous 12 contests). All of the situational and motivational reasons above makes me believe that this is the very definition of great line value; play on CALGARY. AAA Sports |
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12-18-14 | Edmonton Oilers v. San Jose Sharks -249 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. I’ve always been a fan of the phrase: “sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason”; in this particular situation, that phrase simply could not be more apt. I think the home side comes in focused on the task at hand and does not look past its lowly opponent. San Jose is gunning for its fourth straight win after beating a very tough Nashville team 2-0 on Saturday. After a slow start, San Jose starting goaltender Antti Niemi has come on like gang-busters, he posted his second shutout of the year after missing three games; and a date vs. the punchless Oilers is just what the doctor ordered for Niemi who has not only won his last five starts overall while posting a 2.20 GAA in the process, but who is also 4-0-1 with a 2.13 GAA vs. Edmonton in San Jose. The Shark have been getting the job done on both ends of the ice as well, they’ve given up just seven total goals over the team’s last five games, which obvoiusly doesn’t bode well for Edmonton, which is 1-11-5 dating to November 11th after Tuesday’s 2-1 OT loss in Arizona. Note that Oilers starting goaltender Ben Scrivens is 1-3-0 with a 4.04 GAA in his last four vs. San Jose. Some times I feel that it’s necessary to completely dissect a matchup, looking at situational, motivational and trend based factors, while in others I think a more “common sense” approach is the best way to go, and that’s definitely the case here. Lay the price with confidence, play on SAN JOSE. AAA Sports |
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12-16-14 | Buffalo Sabres v. Winnipeg Jets -205 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Winnipeg Jets. Some times I believe it’s important to completely dissect a game, looking at situational, motivational and trend based factors very carefully, and in others I feel a “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here as I expect the home side to come in focused on the task at hand and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Winnipeg already beat the Sabres earlier in the year in Buffalo, but the Sabres played the Senators just last night at home and will definitely come into this contest with “heavy legs.” This does not set up as a look ahead spot at all for the Jets either, they’ve lost two straight and don’t play again until Friday; this is a game that Winnipeg NEEDS to win. Note that Bufflao is a poor 4-8 in non-conference games this season, while Winnipeg is 6-4 (+2.8 units) after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous contest and 6-3 (+2.6 units) in its last nine after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. Lay the price with confidence on the JETS as a lop-sided wire-to-wire destruction is expected. AAA Sports |
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12-13-14 | NY Rangers v. Vancouver Canucks -133 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -133 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Vancouver Canucks. For a number of different strong situational and trend basesd reasons, I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Vancouver lost three straight to end a seven-game road trip, but is back home and rested and I think comes in focused on the task at hand. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the Canucks would be a bit of an understatement I think as Vancouver has lost five straight in the series: “We're definitely excited," goaltender Ryan Miller assessed last night. "A lot of guys are ready to get home. After 14 days, it's just time. We'll regroup." New York has been off even longer than Vancouver, most recently avoiding a third straight loss with a 4-3 OT win over Pittsburgh on Monday. Note, this sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the Rangers though who are in Edmonton tomorrow night and then also a tough game in Calgary before closing with a contest in Carolina on Dcember 20th; the road has not been kind to New York of late which is 1-4-1 in it last six away from friendly confines and just 3-5-1 on the road overall this year. And note that Rangers’ goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has been particularly poor of late in posting a ballooned 3.48 GAA in his last four games. Note that New York is a poor 1-7 (-8.4 units) this year after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest, while Vancouver is 6-2 (+4.4 units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CANUCKS as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-09-14 | Edmonton Oilers v. San Jose Sharks -213 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. Some times I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect every single angle, different player match-ups, scheduling, motivational and situational factors etc, and in others I believe that a “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. After losing 2-1 to the Oilers in Edmonton on Sunday, I think the home side lays the hammer down here and takes care of business in front of the home town crowd. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this is an incredibly strong play, note that Edmonton is a pathetic 1-8 (-6.8 units) following a divisional contest, while San Jose is a spectacular 4-2 (+2 units) this season after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous contest. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to SAN JOSE as the savvy move here in my opinion. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Los Angeles Kings -210 | 2-1 | Loss | -210 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Kings. Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, I definitely feel that LA should be a much larger one and in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. LA is among the league leaders in goaltender effeciency, Quick and Jones have split the last four games; note that Jones has posted two shutouts follwing a 4-0 win at Arizona on Thursday, one week after beating the Wild 4-0. Not to be outdone though, Quick also registered a shutout in his last game and owns a 2.15 GAA in his last 20 starts, most recently beating Boston 2-0 on Tuesday with 31 saves. Note that the Kings have held ten straight opponents to 33 or fewer shots. All of that spells bad news for Philadelphia which is coming off a 5-4 shootout loss at Anaheim and has dropped six straight overall. Note that goaltender Steve Mason owns a pathetic 0-3-1 record with a 3.36 GAA in his last four games. And finally, this is in fact a revenge game for the home side after it fell 3-2 in Philadelphia back on October 28th. No need to overanalyze this one, lay the price with confidence on the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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12-03-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Minnesota Wild -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the Minnesota Wild. I think this is a prime spot for Minnesota to avenge an earlier 4-1 loss to Montreal as I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is in fact a triple revenge spot for the Wild. Montreal snapped a three-game slide to beat Colorado 4-3 on Monday, but I think it will run into a buzzsaw today vs. a Minnesota team looking to break out of a listless 2-2-1 stretch after a season-best four-game win skein. The home side will also be extra motivated here after it lost a frustrating 3-2 shootout to St. Louis on Saturday, holding a one-goal lead going into the thrid frame. A closer look at the scheduling though sees that the Wild can be forgiven for the late setback, they were playing their third game in four nights; suffice it to say, I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Minnesota. Simply a tough spot for Montreal, in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value; play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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12-02-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning -190 v. Buffalo Sabres | 1-2 | Loss | -190 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Despite playing just last night, I think that the visitors overall depth and talent level absolutely justify in laying this larger price and look for the Lightning to strike early and often. Tampa Bay is the league’s highest scoring team and its power play is a big reason why. Conversely, the Sabres are last in the league in goals per game and in power-play percentage. This is the opener of a home and home set and I look for Tampa Bay to make the most of it tonight. As noted off the top, the Bolts are firing on all cylinders right now, they’re 5 for 15 on the power play during this win streak and at 24.1 percent on the season. Buffalo averages just 1.67 GPG. The Sabres are also allowing an NHL-worst 36.5 shots on goal per game. That doesn’t bode well for the home side tonight. Note that Tampa Bay is 37-21 (+6.8 units) vs. teams with losing records, meaning that this is a team which wins the games its supposed to. And note that Buffalo is 15-31 (-4.3 units) vs. teams with winning records, meaning that this is a team which struggles vs. the leagues best. In my opinion, this line should in fact be larger, play on TAMPA BAY. AAA Sports |
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12-01-14 | Florida Panthers v. Columbus Blue Jackets -110 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Desperation breeds motivation, the home side will look to break out of a lengthy losing streak against an equally as inconsistent team; in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Florida ranks second to last in the NHL in goals and shooting percentage. I think the visitors come in complacent here as well after winning two straight, including 3-2 win over the Sens last time out. The Blue Jackets are on a six game slide, but goaltender Curtis McElhinney made 40 saves in Saturday’s hard-fought 2-1 loss to first place Nashville on Saturday. Note, from a situational stand point, this definitely favors the home side as well: this is the opening game of a home and home set for Columbus, playing again in Florida on Thursday, but note that the Panthers are at Detroit tomorrow night. This is a definite look ahead spot as well for the visitors. A great spot wager, lay the short price on the BLUE JACKETS. AAA Sports |
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11-29-14 | Ottawa Senators v. Tampa Bay Lightning -200 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Some times I feel it’s necessary to completely dissect a play, other times I feel that a common sense approach is the best way to approach a contest. Ottawa is coming off a 3-2 loss just last night in Florida, giving up three-straight goals after going up 2-0. This is also a revenge spot for the rested home side after the Sens beat it 3-2 in Tampa Bay back on November 11th. Note that Tampa Bay is 7-4 (+1.8 units) vs. teams with losing records this year. Definitely a tough spot for the visitors, in my opinion, this line should in fact be larger, I’m laying the price on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports |
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11-28-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. Boston Bruins -155 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Bruins. Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case I definitely feel that the home side should be a bigger one; in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors, they’re coming off two straight road wins, today’s contest is the finale of a three-game trip and then the team will enjoy a few days off, its next contest isn’t till Wednesday in front of the home town crowd. Conversely, the Bruins are coming off consecutive defeats after Monday’s 3-2 home overtime loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. A date vs. the Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the franchise has dropped 12 straight in Boston while giving up an average of 3.92 goals in the process. After wins against the Jackets and the Sabres, I think that Winnipeg will check out of this game early and look forward to the extended time off. Note that goaltender Ondrej Pavalec is 0-6-1 with a 4.00 GAA in eight starts in Boston. And note that Bruins goaltender Tukka Rask has posted a 1.51 GAA over a 2-1-1 stretch. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to BOSTON as the value play here. AAA Sports |
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11-26-14 | Calgary Flames v. San Jose Sharks -160 | 2-0 | Loss | -160 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. San Jose has lost three straight and I think will leave everything on the ice tonight to secure a victory. A date vs. the Flames is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the Sharks have won seven of the last eight in the series in front of the home town crowd. Note that San Jose goaltender Antti Niemi has been particularly sharp vs. Calgary in going 12-2-1 with a 2.18 GAA, the Sharks have actually outscored the Flames 34-18 in taking three straight and seven of eight home meetings. This is a poor spot for the Flames as well who are coming off a 3-2 loss at Anaheim just last night. Note that Calgary goaltender Jonas Hiller is just 1-1-2 with a 2.88 GAA in his last four vs. San Jose. Note that San Jose is 6-3 (+2.6 units) in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, the writing is on the wall and I feel this line should in fact be a lot larger, great value here; play on the SHARKS. AAA Sports |
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11-25-14 | Calgary Flames v. Anaheim Ducks -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Anaheim Ducks. This is a revenge game after the Flames rallied to beat the Ducks just last week and suffice it to say, I like Anaheim to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Calgary backers have certainly been “lucky” of late, but I think that trend runs out tonight, note that the Flames are 0-13-5 in the regular season since their last victory in Anaheim back in 2004. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this is a solid play, note that Calgary is already 4-6 (-1.3 units) after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest, while Anaheim is already 6-1 (+5.4 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season. There’s no question that this is a price that I can live with paying, play on the DUCKS. AAA Sports |
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11-25-14 | Edmonton Oilers v. Dallas Stars -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Dallas Stars. I think the Stars take care of business at home vs. the hapless Oilers and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Edmonton is reeling, a winless five-game homestand exteneded the Oilers losing streak to 0-5-1, culminating in Saturday’s 7-1 loss to Chicago. For the year the Oilers are 0-10-1 vs. teams from the West. Edmonton has potted just 23 goals during a 2-9-1 stretch. The Stars have certainly turned things around, they come in having won two straight including Sunday’s 5-4 win over Los Angeles. Note that Stars’ goaltender Kari Lehtonen has been a bit shaky of late, but a date vs. Edmonton is just what the doctor ordered to turn things around, he’s 11-2-1 with a 1.92 GAA in 14 starts vs. the Oilers since joining Dallas. Edmonton starting goaltender Ben Scrivens has posted a ghastly 4.27 GAA in a 0-6-1 span and has given up five goals in each of his past two games. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, this is a tough situational spot for the visitors, lay the price with confidence on the STARS. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Arizona Coyotes v. San Jose Sharks -169 | 4-3 | Loss | -169 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. San Jose came up short for me on Thursday night, but I think the Sharks will definitely take care of business in front of the home town crowd vs. the lowly Coyotes. San Jose will welcome Brenden Dillon to the lineup tonight, picked up from Dallas in a trade: “Brenden is a well-rounded, physical player who brings an important ingredient to our existing group of defensemen," San Jose GM Doug Wilson said last night. "He was physically a late blooming player and we feel, at the age of 24, his game is continuing to trend upwards. He fits really well for our organization now and for the future." The Sharks have uncharacteristically struggled defensively, but the addition of Dillon will be big. The play of goaltenders Antti Niemi and Troy Grosenick though has been excellent thus far. A date vs. Arizona is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, the Coyotes have struggled on the road, losing seven of 11, including a 3-1 setback in Dallas on Thursday. Arizona’s main issue is on the offensive end, averaging just 2.40 goals per game which ranks near the bottom of the league. Note that Coyotes’ goaltender Mike Smith is 4-10-1 with a 3.30 GAA and is 0-4-1 in his last five starts. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, this line should be higher, great value; play on SAN JOSE. AAA Sports |
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11-21-14 | Boston Bruins -132 v. Columbus Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOODBATH on the Boston Bruins. Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in my opinion, Boston should be a much bigger one in this matchup, definitely making the value play in this contest on the visitors. Columbus is one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL and a date vs. the hard-hitting Bruins is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Boston has won six-straight in the series. After a sluggish start, the B’s have really turned things around, they’re looking to win for an eighth time in ten games, limiting opponents to 21 goals in the last nine. Tuukka Rask had 33-saves in Saturday’s 2-1 win over Carolina. Rask has quietly been leading the charge, he’s 6-1-0 with a 1.86 GAA over the last month and has won four straight over the Blue Jackets while posting a minuscule 1.14 GAA. After back to back victories, Columbus returned to its normal pathetic self in Tuesday’s 5-0 home loss to Detroit. The Jackets are allowing an Eastern-Conference worst 3.56 goals per game, including an average of 4.33 while losing five of their last six in front of the home town crowd. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has a 3.62 GAA in his last five starts and is 0-2-1 with a 2.24 GAA vs. the B’s. No need to overanalyze this one, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-20-14 | Florida Panthers v. San Jose Sharks -185 | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks return home off a sub-par 3-4-0 road trip, which ended in a 4-1 loss to Buffalo on Tuesday. This is a big game for San Jose, the first of six in front of the home town crowd and I expect the underachieving Sharks to take care of business in their own barn tonight. Despite the setback to the Sabres, note that San Jose actually outshot Buffalo 30-14. This also sets up as a revenge game for the home side after it lost 4-1 to Florida on November 11th. After a great stretch, the Panthers have returned to their usual horrible selves, they’ve lost four of five away from home and Tuesday’s 5-2 setback to LA was the third time in six games in which they allowed at least four goals. No need to overanlayze this one, I think SAN JOSE should in fact be an even larger favorite in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-16-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Detroit Red Wings -140 | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Red Wings. This is a great situational play, the Habs are coming off a 6-3 win in Montreal over Philadelphia just last night and I think that the rested home side can take advantage of their tired opponent and also avenge an earlier loss at the same time; in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. Montreal beat Detroit 2-1 at home on November 21st. The Wings come in with momentum after destroying the defending champion Blackhawks 4-1 on Friday and note that this is the final home affair before a three-game swing, there is always added incentive for a home team to perform in these types of games (note that Detroit is 7-5/+1.3 units, in its last 12 after playing three consecutive home games). All signs point to DETROIT as the value play here. AAA Sports |
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11-15-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. Nashville Predators -154 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Nashville Predators. I think we’re getting pretty good value on the home side here which will look to bounce back off a 4-3 loss to St. Louis last time out. Winnipeg has remained competitive through the first 17 games, but has been getting the job done with smoke and mirrors in my opinion, it is one of the worst scoring teams in all the NHL in averaging just 1.82 GPG. The Jets have obviously been winning with a better than average defense which is giving up 2.00 GPG which has helped the team go 5-1-1, including a 3-1 effort over Carolina. Strong goaltending is another factor, starter Ondrej Pavelec has gone 5-1-2 with a 1.44 GAA of late, which includes a 3-1 home win over Nashville on November 4th. I think the revenge factor definitely comes into play today. Note that Nashville has limited opponents just 2.06 GPG, while goaltender Pekka Rinne is 4-1-0 witha 2.01 GAA this month (and note that Rinne is 5-0-0 with a 1.99 GAA vs. Winnipeg). I think the visitors inability to bury the puck finally comes back to haunt them here, note that the Jets are a poor 0-3 (-3 units) this year following a victory by 2 goals or more, while Nashville is already 6-2 (+4.2 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. This line should be higher in my opinion, play on the PREDATORS. AAA Sports |
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11-14-14 | Arizona Coyotes v. Vancouver Canucks -200 | 5-0 | Loss | -200 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Vancouver Canucks. I played against the struggling Coyotes last night and while they made it interesting in the first half of the game, predictably the team would fall apart and eventually succumb 5-3 in Calgary; a game vs. the surging Canucks is definitely not what the doctor ordered to get untracked. For a number of different situational reasons, I feel that this line should in fact be A LOT larger and think the home side is absolutely worth the price of admission in this spot. Will the Canucks come out complacent and disinterested in this one? I’ll admit, growing up in Vancouver I have witnessed the team many times struggle with consistency in this spot, but when taking a closer look at their schedule, I think that it’s virtually impossible that the Canucks will look past the lowly Coyotes here. Vancouver hasn’t even played since its 4-3 OT win over the Senators at home on Tuesday, and doesn’t even play again until next Wednesday in Edmonton. A letdown in this position would be 100% unacceptable, the team has no reason to look ahead, and every reason to come out focused on the task at hand. Arizona is one of the league’s worst teams, ranking near the bottom in almost every single statistical offensive and defensive category and the second game of a back to back in Canada is simply not conducive to a productive outing in my opinion. All signs definitely point to a rout, play on VANCOUVER. AAA Sports |
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11-13-14 | Arizona Coyotes v. Calgary Flames -137 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Calgary Flames. I think the Calgary Flames can bounce back after suffering a loss in the finale of a great road trip and take advantage of a Coyotes team which is struggling in all facets of the game right now; in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. If history is any precedence, then the Flames have to be loving their chances here as Arizona hasn’t won in Calgary in three years. Note that the Coyotes are coming off a couple of more disheartening setbacks, a 1-0 loss to the Islanders on Saturday, before then blowing a two-goal lead in a 4-3 loss to Dallas on Tuesday. Note that Arizona is 0 for 18 with the man advantage in its last four games. Conversely, Calgary has won of the league’s best plays over the last six games, going 6 for 17, the team will be extra motivated to return to the winners circle after a listless 4-1 loss in Carolina on Monday: "They capitalized on our turnovers and that was kind of the difference in the game," said Flames forward David Jones afterwards. "We've been away for a while but we should have had our legs tonight. We just came up short and we'll regroup and get ready for the next game." Calgary has to also be feeling confident with Jonas Hiller between the pipes as he’s 9-0-1 with a 1.87 GAA in his last ten vs. the Coyotes and has won his last six in a row vs. them. This line should be higher, play on CALGARY. AAA Sports |
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11-11-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Washington Capitals -190 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. I love playing on “desperate” teams, and certainly the Blue Jackets fit the bill in this one, however, their still missing a ton of different key players and with top defensemen Jack Johnson still sitting one game from suspension, I think the equally as hungry Capitals find a way to get the job done and definitely feel that the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. Columbus will also be without the services of No. 1 goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, and forwards Arten Anisimov, Brandon Dubinsky and Mark Letstu. Unfortunately for the visitors, a date in the nation’s capital is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked, they’ve dropped three straight at Washington. The Capitals on the other hand come in with momentum, they beat Carolina 4-3 in OT on Saturday, Alex Ovechkin got his 400th assist and has two goals and an assist in his last three at home in this series. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, I defnitely feel the home side should be a bigger one in this spot; play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Washington Capitals -165 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. Both teams are coming off victories, but as a situational handicaper these are exactly the type of contests I keep my eyes open for and in my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger as I feel the Hurricanes are due for a big letdown in this spot. Carolina has now won four straight after it’s 3-2 OT win over Columbus last night, it’s second straight win in a row over the Blue Jackets. After an 0-6-1 start Columbus has found its footing, its benefited from some early injuries getting back onto the ice. Washington though had been in a miserable slump until its 3-2 win in defending champion Chicago last night; suffice it to say, I look for the home side to build off that victory. The second game of a back to back for both teams, the advantage is cleary in the home side’s favor. This is a classic “letdown” spot for Carolina, look for WASHINGTON to continue to push and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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11-06-14 | Florida Panthers v. Philadelphia Flyers -164 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 7* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Philadelphia Flyers. A great situational play, the Flyers lost 2-1 in Florida just last week and I feel should in fact be a bigger favorite in this revenge spot, in my opinion we’re getting great line value in this one. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for the Flyers, they’ve won three straight in Philadelphia, outscoring opponents 11-5 during its run, most recently a 4-1 victory over Edmonton on Tuesday. The Panthers are coming off a 2-1 OT loss at Boston on Tuesday and continue to struggle offensively. I’m calling these goaltenders a wash (Luongo, Mason), as each has had a ton of success against their opponent today, the difference is on the offensive side of the ice, the Flyers are 6th overall in the leauge in scoring (3.1), while the Panthers are 29th (1.5). Lay the price with confidence, play on PHILADELPHIA. AAA Sports |
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11-04-14 | Carolina Hurricanes v. Columbus Blue Jackets -129 | 4-2 | Loss | -129 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Columbus Blue Jackets. As I’ve written many times in the past: desperation breeds motivation and I think the home side comes to play today, in my opinion this is the very definition of great line value. Carolina went 0-6 to open the year but has since won two straight, a 3-0 home win over Arizona on Saturday before then beating the Kings 3-2 a night later. Suffice it to say, I think the team has a letdown here now that it’s away from friendly confines. Despite getting a few players back, note that Carolina hasn’t scored more than three goals in a game. Goaltender Cam Ward was 0-3-1 with a 3.95 GAA before stopping 55 of 57 vs. the ‘Yotes and Kings. This is the perfect opponent for the the Blue Jackets to get untracked against, Carolina is 0-5-1 on the road, while Ward is an atrocious 0-2-0 with a 4.46 GAA in three starts at Columbus. The Blue Jackets have dropped two straight after Saturday’s 3-2 defeat at New Jersey. Note though that the Blue Jackets were 0 for 11 with the man advantage over their first five games, but have gone 9 for 25 in the last six. I jumped on this line at -129 and its since gone up quite a bit, regardless, I think this is a great situational play on COLUMBUS. AAA Sports |
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11-04-14 | Calgary Flames v. Washington Capitals -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Capitals. In my opinion, the Flames are over-performing while Washington is clearly under-performing, when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done. Washington has lost four straight, and as I’ve mentioned many times in other writeups, I think that desperation breeds motivation and really like the home side to come out fired up tonight. Certainly the Capitals will be extra motivated here after blowing a 3-1 first period lead in a 6-5 home loss to Arizona on Sunday: "That behavior has to change or we have to change people," coach Barry Trotz raged afterwards. "It's plain and simple. (I'll adjust) ice time, look at different people in different situations. To me, it's absolutely unacceptable. They have to fix it. They have to fix the behavior. It's my job to fix the behavior. I don't like the behavior. If they're not going to fix it internally, individually, then I'll make sure I fix it." I give a lot of props to Calgary which opened a five-game trip with a 6-2 win at Montreal on Sunday, but I think it runs into a buzzsaw today; note that Washington is 21-16 (+5.8 units) in its last 37 after allowing 4 goals or more in its previous contest, while the Flames are just 11-16 (-2.2 units) in their last 27 after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. In my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value; play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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11-02-14 | Los Angeles Kings -185 v. Carolina Hurricanes | 2-3 | Loss | -185 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Kings. For a number of different reasons, I feel that the defending champion LA Kings are worth the price of admission in this spot. LA was one of the best road teams last season, but so far that hasn’t been the case in 2014/15 as the Kings have lost three straight away from friendly confines. The Hurricanes have just been downright horrible, they hadn’t even won a single game this year until they finally broke through with a 3-0 win over Arizona last night; suffice it to say, I think this sets up as as classic “letdown” spot for the offensively challenged Hurricanes, a team which has not scored more than 3 goals in any contest yet this year. LA gets a big boost offensively as well with the expected return of Anze Kopitar to the lineup: “The bottom line is we've played three games in four nights and they're sitting here waiting...," coach Darryl Sutter said. "That's what's going to happen." Kopitar is a beast, while he’s missed the first three games of this trip, he has two goals and one assist in eight games after leading the team in both categories last year (and note that Kopitar has three goals and four assists in six meetings with Carolina). LA I think comes in focused on the task at hand, this is the fourth game of an eight game trip; note that the Kings are 15-9 (+3.6 units) in their last 24 after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous contest, while Carolina is 10-22 (-11 units) in its last 32 non-conference games. In my opinion, all signs point to an epically one sided destruction, lay the price on the KINGS with confidence. AAA Sports |
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10-30-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. New Jersey Devils -141 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New Jersey Devils. The Jets are coming off a satisfying road victory and I think stumble today against a determined home side. In fact, Winnipeg has won five of its last six, but I think is prime for a letdown tonight. New Jersey got off to a massive start but has since gone just 1-3-2, most recently it was humiliated 8-3 at Pittsburgh on Tuesday: “We beat ourselves," coach Peter DeBoer said afterwards. "I thought we were in a pretty good place for awhile there and as a group we beat ourselves over the last 35-40 minutes." Winnipeg has won three of four following a four-game slide; after going 1 for 28 on the power play, it went 2 for 4 on Tuesday’s 4-3 road win over the Isles. Note though that this is also a revenge game for the home side after the Jets took both games last year, outscoring the Devils 6-1 in the process. I think the road finally catches up to Winnipeg today and look for NEW JERSEY to take advantage. AAA Sports |
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10-26-14 | Washington Capitals v. Vancouver Canucks -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Vancouver Canucks. I think this is great line value and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington is coming off a satisfying 3-1 win in Calgary just last night while the hungry home side is looking to avoid a fourth loss in its last five outings. If history is any precedence, then the Canucks have to be loving their chances tonight, they’re 12-2-2 in the series since 1998, including 7-0-1 in Vancouver. While the Canucks have struggled a bit of late defensively, note that goaltender Ryan Miller looked dominant in making 31 saves in Thursday’s 4-1 win at St. Louis; and note that Miller is 4-1-0 with a very respectable 2.71 GAA this year and is 15-12 with a 2.50 mark vs. Washington lifetime. The Capitals are expected to start backup Justin Peters who is 1-0-1 with a 1.49 GAA, but note that Washington is a poor 16-24 (-5.4 units) in its last 40 vs. teams with winning records. And note that Vancouver is a superb 10-6 (+4.6 units) in its last 16 after playing three consecutive road games. I often find that “desperation” is a factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s definitely the case here, in my opinion this is the very definition of great line value; play on VANCOUVER. AAA Sports |
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10-25-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Minnesota Wild -156 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Minnesota Wild No need to overanalyze this pick in my opinion, the Lightning end a long road trip tonight and are coming off a satisfying 4-2 win at Winnipeg on Friday; suffice it to say, I look for the home side to take full advantage of this “spot.” As good as Tampa has been on this trip, take note that it’s injured, many key players are sitting today. Also, the Lightning are going to run smack dab into a red hot goaltender in Darcy Kuemper who made 26 saves in his team’s 2-0 win over Arizona on Thursday; for the year, Kuemper is 3-1-0 with a 0.50 GAA in four outings. The Wild will face Lightning backup Evgeni Nabokov who has been decent this year, but note that is just 19-22 (-3.1 units) in its last 41 vs. teams with winning records. Also note that Minnesota is 14-11 (+4.6 units) in its last 25 after a win by 2 goals or more. A great situational play, in my opinion this is the very definition of great line value; play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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10-24-14 | Vancouver Canucks v. Colorado Avalanche -125 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs are desperate after starting the season just 1-4-2, most recently losing 4-3 to Florida in OT on Tuesday but catch a break as the Canucks are coming off a big 4-1 win at St. Louis just last night. “Desperation” is a factor which I feel that the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s definitely the case here, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. For me this is purely a situational/trend based selection, note that Colorado is 6-3 (+2.1 units) in its last nine following a two day break and 21-15 (+5.6 units) following a non-conference contest. I think the hungry home side finds a way here, in my opinion this is the very definition of great line value; play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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10-18-14 | Florida Panthers v. Washington Capitals -205 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Washington Capitals. This is a mismatch on any day, but the fact that Florida comes to town off its first win of the season just last night means that this line should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion; time to lay the price and make the books pay! Red hot Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals look to continue their surge and take advantage of a tired Panthers side. Since falling 2-1 in a SO to Montreal in their season opener, the Capitals have scored 15 goals, most recently routing the Devils 6-2 on Thursday. Washington has owned this matchup as well, it’s 9-0-1 in the last ten in the series, Ovechkin has 11 goals and six assists in those games. Florida simply won’t be able to match pace here, it’s scored only four goals in four games and has gone just 1 of 18 on the power play. For me, it doesn’t matter who starts between the nets, this is simply a horrible spot for the offensively challenged Panthers, look for the CAPITALS to capatilize. AAA Sports |
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10-17-14 | Calgary Flames v. Columbus Blue Jackets -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Columbus Blue Jackets. This is the Flames fifth game of a six game road trip, and after back to back OT victories, I think the visitors come up short here vs. the highly disciplined and defensively sound Blue Jackets. The Jackets have the leagues top penalty kill. Columbus also has the 11th ranked GPG average. And that’s bad news for the Flames here, they’ve clearly been bailed out by their goaltending as they allow a whopping 36.6 SPG. Columbus actually averages 33 shots per game, but came up short in Tuesday’s 4-2 home defeat to the then winless Stars. A horrible spot for over achieving Calgary, I’m laying the price and expecting a blowout; play on the BLUE JACKETS. AAA Sports |
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10-16-14 | New Jersey Devils v. Washington Capitals -122 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Capitals. The Devils have won three straight to open the year, all on the road. Suffice it to say, I look for the 1-0-2 Capitals to take advantage and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a natural letdown spot for New Jersey, it’s won three-straight on the road and then will have two days off before its home opener. Most recently New Jersey would gut out a 2-1 win over Tampa on Tuesday. To say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Devils have taken eight of the last ten in the series including three of four last year. Despite its record, Washington has picked up at least one point in all three games, most recently it would storm back to force OT in Tuesday’s 6-5 shooout loss to the Sharks. The Capitals looked good in the latter stages of that game and I think they carry that momentum over here, they’d outshoot San Jose 25-15 over the second and third periods. Note that Washington goaltender Holtby is 2-2-1 with a 2.82 GAA vs. New Jersey. History is on our side here, the Capitals haven’t gone winless in their first three on home ice since 1983, in my opinion this is the very definition of great line value; play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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10-15-14 | Boston Bruins -109 v. Detroit Red Wings | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Bruins. The Boston Bruins are just 1-3 to start the year and lost to the Wings just last week. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “all hands on deck” for the visitors and expect them to skate away with a convincing victory. In fact, the Bruins have lost four-straight regular season contests to the Wings. Last week Detroit would get some revenge from last year’s playoffs with a low-scoring 2-1 victory. Boston has managed just two goals since then and is clearly under-achieving right now: "It's frustrating, but we've got to take positive things out of the game and move on and try to build on it in Detroit -- and we've got to get a win," said Boston forward David Krejci yesterday. I think the Bruins take advantage of a Wings team that comes in flat-footed, having not played since a 3-2 home defeat to Anaheim on Saturday. Jimmy Howard has had plenty of regular season success against the Bruins in the past, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today, note that Boston is 7-3 (+2.4 units) after playing to three or more consecutive “unders”, and has also seen the total eclispe the number in five of its last seven in the same position. And note that Detroit is just 4-6 (-2.4 units) when playing with three or more days rest, while also having seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 17 home games when the number in the contest is set at 5. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BOSTON and the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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10-14-14 | Anaheim Ducks v. Philadelphia Flyers +103 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* INTERCONTINENTAL EXPRESS on the Philadelphia Flyers. I made a play on the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, and they’d go on to annihilate the Canadiens 7-1. Montreal had gone 3-0 to start the year and was playing the final game of a four game opening road trip before enjoying two days off and returning home. This is the exact same situation, the Ducks though are 2-1 (coming off a blowout over the Sabres), are playing the final game of an opening four game road trip before heading home for two days off. The Flyers are 0-2 and are clearly the “hungrier” team here. I am a situational handicapper at heart, this one just screams value. I am not trying to convince you that Philadelphia is a better team than Anaheim, but in my opinion, the stars have truly aligned for us here. Expect the home side to risk life and limb to get into shooting and passing lanes as it desperately tries to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. The visitors will put up a fight, but then take comfort in the fact that they can play an extended stretch in front of the home town crowd after a two-day break; all signs point to the FLYERS as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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10-13-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Tampa Bay Lightning -131 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Montreal is 3-0 and will finish off its grueling four-game season opening road trip tonight; suffice it to say, I think the Habs have a letdown here vs. a determined and revenge-minded home side. Montreal swept the undermanned Lightning in four straight in the Playoffs last year. However, Tampa Bay has to be liking its chances today for a little redemption in sending a healthy Ben Bishop to man the net: “Looking forward to playing them again, it's probably going to be a good gauge for us," Tampa coach Jon Cooper said last night. "Clearly they're setting the bar probably in the Eastern Conference so far. They're kinda the team to beat right now so I guess we'll see where we're at when we play them." Montreal fans have to be feeling pretty lucky to this point, note that the Canadiens have trailed after the first period in all three games and after the second in their last two. In fact, the Habs would go on to win both of those games in shootouts, most recently rallying from a 3-0 deficit in the final 8 minutes of the third period in a 4-3 win at Philadelphia on Saturday. I think the visitors will have a much harder time with Bishop in net, who has given up four goals on 55 shots in two starts for the Lightning so far this year, most recently a 3-2 shootout setback to Ottawa on Saturday. Bishop though is 5-1-2 with a tiny 1.30 GAA in eight starts vs. the Habs, including going 3-0-1 with a minuscule 0.94 GAA in four last year. So far Montreal goaltender Carey Price has been adequate, he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Lightning in the past, but note that his team is 0 for 10 on the powerplay, while Tampa Bay has killed off all five of its opponents’ man advantages (also note that the Bolts are 4 for 10 on their own power play). It’s been a tough, successful and satisfying opening three games for Montreal, who won’t be able to get caught looking ahead to a two day break before then finally going back home to face the Bruins on Thursday; in my opinion, we’re getting fantastic line value on the LIGHTNING in this spot. AAA Sports |
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10-11-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers -104 | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Flyers. I like the winless Flyers to take care of business at home and think the Canadiens come in a bit complacent here. The Habs come in unbeaten at 2-0, Philadelphia is 0-2. The Flyers will certainly be the more desperate team today as they look to avoid their third straight 0-3 start. Note that Montreal hasn’t won three straight to open the year since 2005. Philadelphia can put the biscuit in the basket, it outshot the Devils 39-26 last time out, but would ultimately fall 6-5. Note that while Philly goaltender Steve Mason has looked shaky this year, a game vs. Montreal is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, he’s 3-0-0 with a tiny 1.63 GAA and a .936 save percentage lifetime vs. it. The same can’t be said for Canadiens goaltender Carey Price who is 2-8-0 with a 3.46 GAA vs. the Flyers since November 2010, which includes six straight loss in Philadelphia. “Desperation” is a key factor working in on favor in this one, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value”; play on the FLYERS. AAA Sports |