03-11-16 |
Kansas -5 v. Baylor |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas crushed BIG12 rivals Kansas State on Thursday, and they are the team to beat, ranked #1 in the country. They take on the inconsistent Baylor Bears tonight, and I think the price to back the Jayhawks is more than reasonable. Kansas comes in as winners of 12 straight, and they covered the spread in 10 of those 12 games. They swept the season series with Baylor, and they've won and covered in seven straight against the Bears since 2013. The Bears finished the season as losers of three of their last four games before beating Texas yesterday. They lost 66-60 at home to Kansas during the regular season, and they shot just 36.1 percent from the field in that game. Kansas has plenty of experience playing neutral site games this season, winning five of six. They scored an average of 80.4 points on 48.6 percent shooting in those games. Opponents have averaged just 63 points on 36.7 percent shooting in the Jayhawks last five games. Take KAN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-11-16 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati |
|
104-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Cincinnati #Bearcats. It's hard not like a team like Cincinnati come tournament time. The Bearcats are tough competitors, well coached and very disciplined defensively. Their style suits playing pressure packed games on neutral courts. Cincinnati will meet Connecticut in an early tip off Friday, and the Huskies did not finish the season strong. UCONN lost four of it's final eight games, including a home loss to Houston, and a 65-60 loss at Cincinnati. The Bearcats swept the season series, covering the spread in both meetings.
Cincy was 2-0 in neutral site games this year, holding opponents to just 58.5 points in those games. The Bearcats are coming off a 61-54 home win over SMU, and they've held their last five opponents to an average of 39.8 percent shooting. The Bearcats out-rebounded Connecticut 40-30 in the last meeting between the two teams, and Cincy is averaging almost 36 rebounds per game over their last five. Connecticut has averaged just 30.2 rebounds per game during the same span. The Huskies have failed to cover in five of their last six versus teams with a winning record, and I think Cincy will prove to be too much to handle for UCONN.
Take CIN.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-07-16 |
BYU v. Gonzaga -3 |
Top |
84-88 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga struggled early in the season with an inexperienced back court, but the Bulldogs still finished tied with the St. Mary's with a 15-3 record in the WCC, and a 24-7 overall record. Their size and skill up front is tough for opponents to deal with, and their young guards now have bit more experience under their belts. The BYU Cougars upset the Bulldogs earlier in the year, but Gonzaga got revenge with a 71-68 at Salt Lake City on Saturday. The two teams will meet in Las Vegas in the conference tourney tonight, and I expect to see a similar result to the last meeting. BYU couldn't get anything going against Gonzaga's defense, shooing just 22-of-67 (32.8 %) from he field. The Bulldogs come in as the hotter team, covering the spread in four of their last five. They have been very good at the free throw line during that span, hitting 78 percent. The Cougars have failed to cover in three of their last five, and are shooting just 67.5 percent from the charity stripe. Free throw shooting could be a big factor in tonight's game, and that may not bode well for BYU. Take GONZ. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-07-16 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5 |
Top |
50-56 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies have quietly been making bettors a fortune at home, going 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 home games. They host the Western Michigan Broncos in a MAC Tournament game tonight, and they already beat the Broncos 76-67 just over a week ago. The Broncos have only won two road games all year long, with a dismal 2-11 road record. While there's nothing easy about handicapping college hoops, I think this is a case of the obvious choice being the best choice. Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-06-16 |
SMU v. Cincinnati -1 |
|
54-61 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati lost at SMU earlier this season, but that game was close with a final score of 59-57. They will look to avenge that loss here in their final home game, and I think the Bearcats at almost a pickem looks like great value. Larry Brown is growing increasingly frustrated about his team's post season ban, which is likely to be more of a distraction that a source of motivation. This is a still a must win game for the Mustangs who sit tied on points with Temple, but beating the Bearcats in Cincinnati is a tough ask. Cincy is 13-3 at home this season, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. They've also covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series. They've held opponents to just 63.5 points per game on 38.8 percent shooting on their home floor, while averaging 81.2 points on 47.6 percent shooting themselves. The Mustangs have a solid road record of 7-3, but they've lost when playing the top teams in the AAC, losing at Tulsa, Houston and Temple.
Take CIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-05-16 |
Louisville v. Virginia -5 |
Top |
46-68 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs. The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Cardinals in this revenge game against Virginia. The Cavs trounced the Cardinals in Louisville back in January, handing them their worst loss of the season. I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting. There's no reason to think that "revenge" will trump the effort of a Virginia team playing it's final home game before gearing up for the playoffs. Louisville on the other hand is serving a self imposed ban this post-season, so doesn't have anything left to play for. The Cardinals are just 4-6 on the road while Virginia is 14-0 at home. Louisville has failed to cover in eight of it's last nine road games, and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record. The Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning straight up record. Take UVA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-05-16 |
North Carolina v. Duke +1.5 |
|
76-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Duke Blue Devils. The situational handicappers will be licking their chops tonight, lining up to bet on the Tar Heels in this revenge game against Duke. The Blue Devils upset North Carolina at Chapel Hill a couple weeks back, in a game that they really should have won. I've written extensively about "situational handicapping" throughout my career, and I consider it to be one of the most overrated strategies that a sports handicapper can focus on. I do take note of "revenge spots" such as we see in tonight's game, but unless there are several other key factors that line up in favor of the team seeking revenge, I wouldn't want to bet on that team to do what it failed to do in the previous meeting. I find it a little mind boggling that after watching the Tar Heels fail to beat Duke at home, people are willing to bet on North Carolina as a favorite at Duke on senior night. Actually laying points with a team that is just 5-5 on the road this season to beat Coach K at Cameron Indoor where Duke is 181-12 (.937) at home since the 2004-2005 season, second only to Kansas in home winning percentage. Take Duke. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-05-16 |
Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -1 |
|
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 56-53 loss at Louisville, which was an impressive showing despite the disappointing result. They've had better luck at home of late, winning three straight, including a 63-62 win over #18 ranked Notre Dame. They had won four straight prior to the setback against Louisville, and I like their chances of knocking off Pittsburgh here on senior's night. The Panthers have been brutal on the road this season, losing five of eight overall. Most recently they lost 65-61 at Virginia Tech. They are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. It's going to be a struggle for Pittsburgh to contend with the size of the Yellow Jackets, who are among the conference leaders averaging almost 37 rebounds per game. Georgia Tech is 12-5 at home. Take GT. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-04-16 |
Indiana State v. Illinois State -6 |
|
65-57 |
Loss |
-106 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Illinois State #Redbirds. The Indiana State Sycamores are coming off a home win over cellar dwellers Bradley, which snapped a six game losing skid. They had lost their previous three games all by a 20+ point margin. One of those losses came at Illinois State by a score of 78-50. The two teams meet in the conference tournament in St. Louis Friday, and I don't see any reason we won't see another comfortable win for the Red Birds. Illinois State finished in a second place tie with Evansville with a 12-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference. They won six of their last eight games, losing only to conference powerhouses Wichita State and Northern Iowa. One of their wins during that span came at home against the conference leading Shockers. The Sycamores come into this game in a terrible offensive slump, averaging just 61.4 points on 34.5 percent shooting over their last five games. They are 1-8-1 in their last 10 games overall, and they are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. The Redbirds are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a losing record. Take ILST. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-04-16 |
Princeton -5.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Princeton Tigers. The Harvard Crimson have dominated the Ivy League in recent seasons, but they have been brutal in 2016. Harvard has lost eight of 12 games in conference play, and they have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 overall. Harvard has been burying bettors, going 7-21 ATS in their last 28 versus the Ivy League. They've lost three of their last four home games, including a double digit loss to Yale. Princeton trails Yale by just a half a game in the Ivy League standings, with a 10-1 conference record. The Tigers beat Harvard at home by a whopping 21 points earlier this season, and they should win tonight's game by a wide margin. Princeton has covered the spread in five of it's last seven at Harvard, and four straight on the road. Take PRIN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Colorado State v. Fresno State -4.5 |
|
73-87 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 7* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have won four straight, and they will play their final home game against a struggling Colorado State Rams team on senior's night. The Rams have lost five straight on the road, and seven of 10 away from home this season. Colorado State has lost four of it's last five overall, and they've shot just 38.6 percent from the field during that span. The Bulldogs are 15-2 at home, and 11-5 in the Mountain West. They have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and four of their last five against teams with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, and the favorite covered the spread in all five of those games. Take FRES. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Wisconsin -10 v. Minnesota |
Top |
62-49 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the BIG10's bottom feeders, with a conference record of 2-14. They have a losing home record, and they have suffered double digit home losses at the hands of Michigan and Northwestern, and they are coming off a 13 point loss on the road at Illinois. Normally you would expect a pretty strong effort from an underdog like Minnesota in it's final home game, but with three of it's top players suspended for the remainder of the season, maybe not. The Gophers might just fold like a cheap suite here without leading scorer Nate Mason, who had 31 points in the team's only two wins in conference play. Wisconsin has won four straight in this series, and three of those wins came by double digits. They won in Minnesota last year by a score of 76-63. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
Seton Hall +5 v. Butler |
|
78-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Seton Hall Pirates.
The Pirates are heading into March on a roll, coming off a big home win over Xavier. They've won eight of their last nine overall, and three of those wins have come on the road. In fact Seton Hall has a 6-3 record on the road this season, which is pretty impressive for an unranked team. Butler is just 2-2 over a four game stretch, which includes a home loss to Xavier. They've failed to cover the spread in six straight home games against teams with a winning road record.
The Pirates have been a moneymaker as a road underdog, covering in seven of their last eight on the road. They are also 10-2 in their last 12 games against teams from the Big East. They did suffer a home loss at the hands of Butler just a few weeks back, setting up a revenge spot tonight. Butler shot 55.8 percent from the field, and 50% from beyond the arc in the previous meeting. They will have a tough time repeating that here tonight, as they've shot just 42.2 percent over their last five games.
Take HALL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
03-02-16 |
St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure +4 |
Top |
90-98 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies will host St. Joes on Wednesday, and it's senior night at St. Bonaventure. History certainly favors the Bonnies, who have won four straight meetings, including a double digit win at St. Joe's earlier this year. The Red Hawks are currently in first place in the A-10, but a home win for the Bonnies would move them into a tie with St. Joe's. St. Bonaventure has won eight of it's last nine overall, and the one loss came on the road at La Salle. They have scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.3 percent shooting over their last five games, and they are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take SBON. GL, Jesse Schule
|
03-01-16 |
Virginia v. Clemson +5 |
Top |
64-57 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers. It's Senior's Night at Clemson, and the Tigers will be all fired up as they get set to host the Virginia Cavs. As well as Virginia has played of late, the fact is that they are just 4-6 on the road. I don't think the Cavs have any business being a sizable favorite on the road tonight, where Clemson has won seven of it's last eight. The Tigers covered the spread in six of those games, and even when they lose they don't lose by much. Three of their last four losses came in games decided by three points or less. This game appears to be destined to be a close, low scoring affair, and the home dog looks like a bargain Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Duke v. Pittsburgh |
Top |
62-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke has won six of it's last seven overall, and two of those wins came on the road. Most recently they upset the North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill by a score of 74-73. They are on the road Sunday, facing a Pittsburgh team that has lost four of it's last six. Two of those losses came at home, most recently a 67-60 loss to Louisville on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has yet to beat a Top 25 team, and leading scorer Michael Young has struggled averaging just 12.7 points over his last six games. Duke appears to be playing it's best basketball heading into the tournament, and the same can not be said for Pitt. The Panthers are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-28-16 |
Xavier -1.5 v. Seton Hall |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The #5 ranked Musketeers have won four straight, and nine of their last 10. They are 25-3 overall, and they are coming off a massive win over the Big East leaders Villanova. They face a Seton Hall team that also has an impressive resume, with a 12-3 home record, and a 10-5 record in the Big East. Not a single one of those victories came against an opponent like Xavier though, and the Pirates three losses at home are more than Xavier's two on the road. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and they are more points and shooting for a higher percentage on the road than Seton Hall is at home. Xavier is hitting 76.3 percent from the free throw line on the road, while the Pirates have hit just 64 percent at home. This is the kind of game that could easily be decided at the free throw line, and if that's the case the edge goes to the visitors.
Take XAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-27-16 |
Texas A&M v. Missouri +9.5 |
|
84-69 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers.
The Tigers might be one of the bottom feeders in the SEC, but they are pretty competitive at home. I think the Aggies are way overrated, and it's a lot to ask for them to win by double digits here on the road. Missouri's last home game was an upset win over South Carolina, and before that they beat the Vols by double digits. They are 10-5 overall at home, and losses to Georgia and Ole Miss came by just six points combined.
The Aggies aren't that great on the road, with a record of just 3-5. They've score just 68.8 points per game on the road, and they've failed to cover in seven of their last nine against SEC teams. The Tigers on the other hand have covered the spread in seven straight in conference play, and five straight as an underdog. Texas A&M has failed to cover in four straight away from home.
Take MIZZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-26-16 |
Harvard v. Yale -13 |
|
50-59 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Yale #Bulldogs. The Harvard Crimson have dominated the Ivy League in recent seasons, but they have been brutal in 2016. Harvard has lost seven of 10 games in conference play, and nine of 12 on the road. The Bulldogs beat the Crimson at Harvard by a dozen points earlier this season, and given that they are sitting just a half game clear of second place Princeton, we should expect another one sided game here tonight. The Bulldogs are an offensive juggernaut averaging 82.1 points per game on 50.1 percent shooting at home. They are shooting 73.5 percent from the free throw line over their last five games. Free throw shooting has been a real weakness for the Crimson, who are hitting just 55.5 percent from the charity stripe on the road. Harvard has been burying bettors, going 6-20 ATS in their last 26 versus the Ivy League. They've been a terrible bet when playing Yale, failing to cover in 15 of the last 22 meetings. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in six straight versus teams with a losing record. Take YALE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-25-16 |
Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -7 |
|
60-72 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on UALR. The Little Rock Arkansas Trojans are the top team in the Sun Belt Conference, and they have been dominant at home all year long. They put their 11-0 record to to the test hosting a banged up UT Arlington team tonight. The Mavericks are coming off a home loss to ULM, and they lost 68-62 at home to UALR earlier this season. The Mavericks have been without forward Kevin Hervey since January 16th, and he was averaging over 18 points per game before suffering a knee injury. The Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they've covered the spread in six of their last seven versus conference rivals. Take UALR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-24-16 |
Northwestern v. Michigan -7 |
|
63-72 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Michigan #Wolverines. The Wolverines are one of several teams "on the bubble" in the BIG10, and tonight's home game versus Northwestern is an absolute "must win". They can't afford to take anything for granted here, and we should see Michigan come out playing hard right from the opening tip off. Michigan has a home record of 12-3, and they won their last home game 61-56 over Purdue (then ranked #18). The Wildcats have only won twice in their last nine games, and those wins came against BIG10 bottom feeders Illinois and Minnesota, both victories coming at home. They've lost five straight on the road, and the average margin of defeat in those games was 14 points. They are only getting half as many points here in Michigan, where they have lost five straight since 2010. The Wolverines score an average of 78 points on 48.3 percent shooting at home, and they are hitting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts. It's a tough ask for the Wildcats to keep up offensively, as they come in averaging just 67 points per game over their last five. This is a statement game for Michigan, and I expect them to trounce the Wildcats, winning by double digits. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-24-16 |
Villanova v. Xavier -1 |
Top |
83-90 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is 24-3 overall, and one of those three losses came on the road at Villanova. They get a chance to execute a little revenge here at home tonight, and they looked pretty good in a win at Georgetown over the weekend. The Hoyas were one of just three teams to beat Xavier this year, and the Musketeers punished them in the rematch winning 88-70. The loss at Villanova was particularly tough, with Edmond Sumner getting carted off on a stretcher in the opening minutes. The Freshman guard is back, and firing on all cylinders, scoring 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the win at Georgetown. Villanova has won seven straight, but has only covered the spread in three of it's last seven. The Wildcats have been cruising through the weaker teams in the Big East, but this is by far their toughest test to date. The Musketeers are 13-1 overall at home, scoring 83.2 points and shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc in those games. The Wildcats stats on the road are nowhere near what they are at home, and they face a Musketeers team that is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Take XAV. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-23-16 |
Virginia Tech v. Boston College +6.5 |
|
71-56 |
Loss |
-106 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Boston College Eagles.
The Hokies have won just twice in nine games since mid January, and both those wins came at home. They have still been far more competitive that the Boston College Eagles, who are still winless in conference play. The Eagles won't get any better opportunity to get that elusive first conference win than this home game against a team that they have dominated over the years. Boston College has won eight of the last nine meetings between the two schools, and the Eagles are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
They've been pretty competitive at home recently, as evidenced by a 68-65 loss to North Carolina. Eli Carter scored 26 points in that game, and the senior should be set for a big game at home tonight. The Eagles are one of the top defensive teams in the ACC, and they are holding opponents to just 66.4 points per game at home. While the Hokies have an impressive record against the big boys in the conference, they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams with win percentage of .400 or less.
Take BC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-23-16 |
Michigan State v. Ohio State +6.5 |
|
81-62 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Despite the fact that the Spartans trail Ohio State by a half a game in the BIG10 standings, the experts agree that Michigan State is the better team. While they have a far more impressive body of work, I am still not convinced they should be asked to cover such a big number here on the road in such a big game. History suggests we should see a close game, as four of the last five games in this series have been decided by four points or less. Ohio State has also won three straight home meetings versus the Spartans.
Both these teams are great defensively, but the Buckeyes are super stingy at home, holding opponents to just 61.2 points on 36.7 percent shooting. Ohio State has won four straight, and back to back home games. Their win over Michigan last week was particularly impressive, scoring 76 points on 54 percent shooting, beating the Wolverines by double digits. One thing that stands out about that game was the 17 points that they scored at the free throw line, hitting 74%. Free throw shooting was a big problem earlier this season, but they are hitting over 73 percent over their last five games.
The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games (one of those a four point loss to Maryaland), and the home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight in this series.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-22-16 |
Virginia v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
61-64 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Miami Hurricanes.
The Virginia Cavs are getting plenty of respect from bookmakers, as they aren't getting much of a spread on the road at Miami Monday. The Cavs have played well of late, and most people think they are the better team here. That might be true at a neutral site, but I expect the Canes to prove to be the better team on their home floor. Miami is 13-1 at home, and tied with Virginia in second place in the ACC with a 10-4 record within the conference.
While the Cavs have some impressive road wins (at Louisville and Pittsburgh), they lost their last road game at Duke, and are just 4-5 away from home on the season. Miami has won all it's home games against ACC teams, including impressive wins over Duke and Notre Dame by a combined 20 points. The Canes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have won three of their last four home games against Virginia. The one loss came in overtime last season.
The Cavs are one of the top defensive teams in the country, but Miami can play defense as well. In fact, the Canes are allowing fewer points per game at home (62.9) that the Cavs are on the road (63.2). Miami also scores an average of 76.8 points on 48.2 percent shooting at home, more than 10 points better than the Cavs score on the road.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-21-16 |
Illinois v. Wisconsin -11.5 |
|
60-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Wisconsin #Badgers.
After going all the way to the NCAA Championship game last year, the Badgers are in danger of missing the tournament. They've gone on an incredible run, winning seven in a row before coming up short at Michigan State on Thursday. Now they host bottom feeders Illinois, in a must win game. They need to make a statement here, and you can expect them to come out focused from the opening tip off.
Wisconsin certainly has history on it's side, winning nine straight versus the Illini. Their last three home wins in this series have come by an average margin of 22 points. They are only asked to cover a number half that size here tonight.
Going back even further, the Illini are just 5-15-1 in the last 21 meetings, and they've failed to cover in five straight in Madison. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last eight versus BIG10 teams. The Badgers held the Illini to just 55 points on 18-of-50 (36%) shooting in a win at Illinois earlier this season. Expect a similar story here tonight, with the home team winning in a rout! Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-20-16 |
St. Mary's +6.5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
63-58 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. Gonzaga sits in first place in the West Coast Conference, one game ahead of St. Mary's with a 13-2 conference record. Both teams have 21 wins overall, but the Gaels have two fewer losses. This Gonzaga team has continued to beat up on weak opposition in the conference, but when they've faced tougher opponents they've failed miserably. That was on full display last Saturday when they lost 69-60 at SMU. They've lost to BYU, UCLA, Arizona, Texas A&M and at St. Mary's earlier this year. The Gaels lead the nation in field goal percentage (.509), and they are ranked 5th in three-point percentage (.421). They shot 50 percent from the field in the win over Gonzaga earlier this year, and I think they'll keep this game close tonight. The Bulldogs are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record, and they are asked to cover a big number in tonight's game. The Gaels have covered the spread in six of their last eight against teams above .500. They've also won five of eight straight up on the road. Take SMC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-19-16 |
Harvard v. Columbia -7.5 |
|
76-90 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Columbia #Lions. Harvard's days of dominating the Ivy league are officially over, and they currently sit in a four way tie at the bottom the conference with a 2-6 record. The Crimson lost their star PG to a season ending injury before the season started, and now they have lost their starting center and leading scorer Zena Edosomwan. Harvard has failed to cover in eight straight overall, and six of eight on the road. Their last three road games were all double digit losses. They are on the road at at Columbia tonight, and the Lions are one of the top teams in the conference with a 6-2 record. They are coming off a loss in a close game versus Princeton (83-80), and they have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 when coming off a loss. The Lions are 11-3 at home on the seasons, and they score an average of over 75 points while shooting 40 percent from three-point range at home. A banged up Harvard team could be in four another beating here tonight. Take CLMB GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-18-16 |
Maryland v. Minnesota +10.5 |
Top |
63-68 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
After losing 14 straight overall, you might think that his Minnesota team would throw in the towel. Not this team! Not this coach!
The Gophers and head coach Richard Pitino continue to play hard, and they appear to be determined to get that elusive first conference win. Tonight's home game against Maryland will be as good a chance as any for them to do just that. The Terps are 22-4 overall, but they haven't been a good bet as a double digit favorite.
Maryland has failed to cover in four straight versus teams with a winning percentage of less that .400. They have won three of their last five road games, but not one of those games were decided by double digits.
Diamond Stone is Maryland's second leading scorer, and he will be serving a suspension for an incident versus Wisconsin last week. The Gophers lost by just four points against Iowa on Sunday, and seven of their last eight losses have come by eight points or less.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-17-16 |
Oklahoma v. Texas Tech +5 |
Top |
63-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Oklahoma Sooners reign at the top of the polls has come to an end, but they are still one of the best teams in the country. That doesn't mean they have been a good bet, especially as a road favorite. Oklahoma has failed to cover in four of it's last five road games, and 15 of it's last 20 BIG12 games. The Red Raiders have won three of their last four, with big wins over Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Baylor.
This is a big revenge spot for the Red Raiders, who suffered their worst defeat of the season at Oklahoma last month. These teams have a history of playing hard fought battles here in Lubbock, and last year the Sooners won in overtime by a score of 79-75. Buddy Hield has cooled off, hitting just 12-of-33 shot attempts in the Sooners last two games. He scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting in the Sooners last visit to Texas Tech.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-17-16 |
Syracuse +8 v. Louisville |
Top |
58-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Louisville Cardinals are one of the top teams in the ACC, but they will NOT be playing in this year's tournament. While they boast an impressive record, they haven't been a great bet, failing to cover in 10 of their last 14 overall. They've lost back to back games at Duke and Notre Dame, and I think they are asked to cover way too many points at home to Syracuse tonight.
Here is what I said about Louisville before they played Clemson on January 10: "I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."
They went on to beat Clemson, but failed to cover. The Cardinals will be a missing key big man Anas Mahmoud who is out for the season with an ankle injury. Clemson has covered the spread in four straight on the road, and they should be able to stay close here at Louisville.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-16-16 |
Florida v. Georgia +1 |
|
57-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Gators come into Georgia off a home loss to Alabama, and they've dropped two of their last three. They are just 2-6 on the road, and they've lost three of their last four at Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a road win at Mississippi State, and they are 12-3 at home this season. Georgia has covered the spread in seven of it's last 10 home games, and nine of it's last 12 overall. The Gators have been brutal on the road, failing to cover in four straight. They have shot just 59.3 percent from the free throw line on the road, and they've averaged just 62.9 points per game. The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight meetings in this series, and I don't think the bookmakers are giving the Bulldogs enough respect here.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-15-16 |
NC State +12 v. Virginia |
|
53-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the N.C. State #Wolfpack. The Cavs saw their seven game winning streak come to and end at Duke on Saturday, and they may have trouble picking up the pieces here at home on Monday. They host conference rivals N.C. State, and Virginia is asked to cover an inflated double-digit spread. Now the Cavs did beat Virginia Tech and Boston College by a combined 32 points in their last two home games, but prior to that they won close games at home against Clemson, Syracuse and Miami. The Wolfpack have lost four of their last seven, but none of those losses came by more than 10 points.
Anthony Barber comes in feeling the hot hand, scoring a whopping 38 points in a 99-88 win over Wake Forest on Saturday. The junior guard has averaged over 32 points per game in his last five starts. The Wolfpack have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings between these two teams, and four straight at Virginia. N.C. State has scored an average of 84 points on 47.6 percent shooting over it's last five games. These teams have a history of playing close games, and I like the Wolfpack as the big underdog.
Take NCST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-13-16 |
Texas +5 v. Iowa State |
|
75-85 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Texas Longhorns. Texas has been one of the hottest teams in the BIG12 in 2016, and the Longhorns are only a game out of first place. They've won four of their last five overall, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Oklahoma. It has taken some time for this team to adapt to first year head coach Shaka Smart, but they really look like a contender heading into March.
Texas will be an underdog on the road at Iowa State Saturday, and the Cyclones have dropped three of their last four. These teams have a history of playing tight games, as three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The Cyclones lost in overtime at Texas (94-91) earlier in the season. They may want revenge here in the rematch, but they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight at home. Texas has covered the spread in seven straight overall, and four straight on the road.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-13-16 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame -1 |
Top |
66-71 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Irish.
Notre Dame comes into tonight's home game against Louisville as winners of three of it's last four. It's last home game was an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Irish have also beaten Duke on the road, and they are 11-5-1 in their last 17 versus the ACC. They are 12-1 at home, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five at South Bend. The Cardinals have not been a good bet on the road, failing to cover in six straight. The Irish are scoring over 80 points per game at home, and they are shooting 76.2 percent from the field at South Bend. Louisville is struggling at the free throw line this season, and the Cardinals have trouble scoring at the best of times.
Take ND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-13-16 |
Texas A&M v. LSU -1 |
Top |
71-76 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers. The Tigers are hot, coming into Saturday's home game against Texas A&M as winners of four of their last five at home. The one loss came by just two points to #1 ranked Oklahoma in a non-conference game (SEC/BIG12 Challenge). The Aggies are coming off three straight losses, and they have struggled on the road with a record of just 3-4. Home court has been a big deal in this series, with the home team covering in eight of the last 10. LSU is 12-2 overall at home, while the Aggies have only covered once in their last seven on the road. Ben Simmons gets better with every game, and the Freshman will be looking to execute a little revenge after having one of his worst games in a loss at Texas A&M earlier in the year. Despite their struggles away from home, and the fact that they've failed to cover in five straight SEC games, the Aggies aren't getting any sort of a cushion here in today's game.
Take LSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-12-16 |
Dayton -1.5 v. Rhode Island |
Top |
68-66 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* pay on the Dayton Flyers.
The Flyers are sitting in the top spot in the A-10 with a conference record of 10-1. They will be just a slight favorite on the road tonight, facing a Rams team that has a 6-5 record within the conference. Perhaps this line is a little lower than one might expect, and that's likely influenced by the fact that Dayton hasn't won at Rhode Island since 2005. The Rams also have a respectable home record of 11-3. They did come up short in a home loss to St. Joes though, and all of their home wins within the conference so far have come against teams with a losing record. They've also lost three straight in this series versus Dayton, and the last two were blowouts.
Dayton is 5-1 on the road, and the Flyers come in riding an eight game win streak. It's not as though they don't have anything to play for, as a loss here would open the door for VCU and St. Joe's who are tied for second, each with a 9-2 record. The Rams have lost two of their last three, and starting forward Kuran Iverson has missed all three games with a concussion. He's averaging over 10 points per game, and if he can't go tonight it would be a big blow for the home team. The Flyers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Take DAY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-11-16 |
North Dakota v. Eastern Washington -6.5 |
|
85-95 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Eastern Washington Eagles. I bet on the Eagles in their last home game against Sacramento State, and here is what I said before the game: "Last year's Big Sky champions have failed to impress this year, with a 10-10 overall record and just 4-4 within the conference. The Eagles have been dominant at home though, winning all seven of their games in Washington. The majority of those game were blowouts, such as Thursday's 112-83 shellacking of Portland State. Eastern Washington is averaging and incredible 92 points on 55.9 percent shooting at home." The would win the game, but only by seven points. Inexplicably they shot just 1-for-20 from three-point range on that night. If I live to be 103, I might never see another game where the Eagles shoot 1-for-20 from beyond the arc. They've since won back to back road games by double digits, and I think they'll win big at home tonight. Take EWU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-09-16 |
Toledo v. Buffalo -2 |
Top |
71-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bulls.
The Bulls have won four straight, and six of their last seven overall. They have won eight of 10 at home, and they have the second best record in the MAC. They host Toledo Tuesday, and the Rockets have lost three of their last five. One of those losses came at home to Buffalo, with the Bulls jumping out to a 10-point lead in the first half, and hanging on to win 73-68. The Bulls have won four of their last five home meetings versus Toledo, and they have covered the spread in five of the last six overall meetings between the two teams. Buffalo has superior depth, and their bench outscored Toledo's bench 28-17 in the last meeting. The Bulls should also have an advantage on the boards, averaging 36.3 rebounds per game at home.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-08-16 |
Louisville v. Duke -4 |
Top |
65-72 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
Defending champions Duke have lost a few key home games already in conference play, and because of that they are just a short favorite at home to Louisville tonight. Duke is coming off a couple wins in a row, beating Georgia Tech and N.C. State by a combined 17 points. The Cardinal are just 3-3 on the road, and they might not have their leading scorer healthy tonight. Damion Lee missed the last game with a knee injury, but he could return here against Duke. Given that Louisville will be serving a self imposed post-season ban, there really is no reason for players to push it if they are anything less than 100%.
Duke has won seven straight at home versus ranked opponents, and Duke is 179-12 (.937) at home since the 2004-5 season, second only to Kansas in winning percentage at home. The come in shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, going 25-of-51 from three-point range in their last two games. They have shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc at home this season, and score over 90 points per game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -5.5 |
|
70-80 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bulls.
Buffalo has won three straight, and it will host bottom dwelling Eastern Michigan on Saturday. The Eagles are sitting dead last in the MAC West, tied with Western Michigan. The Eagles are coming off home win over Miami Ohio, but they had lost five straight previously. They have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 road games, and they have lost eight of 11 on the road this season. The Bulls are scoring 79.5 points on 46.8 percent shooting at home, and the home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the two teams. The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Iowa State v. Oklahoma State +5 |
Top |
64-59 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Cyclones have lost back to back games, but still they are a road favorite at Oklahoma State here today. The Cowboys may not have a lot of wins on their resume in conference play, but they have certainly been competitive. While they have lost five of seven in conference play, three of those five losses came in games decided by five points or less. These teams have met four times since 2013, and all four of those games were decided by less than five points. Two of those four games required overtime to decide a winner. The Cyclones come in short-handed, with reigning BIG12 player of the year Jameel McKay suspended indefinitely: "I don't feel like I'm getting as high as I would normally," McKay said. "With what's going on with me, you've just got to kind of block it out and remember that it'll get better. ... It's not 100 percent. But it's getting better."
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Davidson v. Duquesne -2 |
|
93-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Duquesne Dukes. Duquesne will be just a slight favorite at home to Davidson, and this Wildcats team has really struggled on the road. The Dukes have won three straight, and five of six overall. They are 9-1 at home, and they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. Davidson has lost six of eight on the road this season, and has failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven road games. They are an absolutely abysmal 3-13 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Davidson has been hit hard by injuries, with forward Jake Belford out for the season, and leading scorer Jack Gibbs battling an ankle injury. Gibbs is expected to play on Saturday, but he might not be at 100%. He's scored 59 points in his last two games, but the Wildcats lost both those games by double-digits.
Take DUQ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-06-16 |
Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1.5 |
|
64-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers.
The Virginia Cavs won in impressive fashion at Louisville last week, but when you look at their overall body of work, I don't think it justifies them being favored at Pittsburgh today. The had lost four of six on the road prior to their win over the Cardinals, and their win at Wake Forest came by just one point. Pittsburgh is coming off a blowout win at home over Virginia Tech last Saturday, and the Panthers are 13-2 at home this season. They've averaged 82.5 points on 49 percent shooting at home, while Virginia has scored just 65.9 points per game on the road. The Cavs have failed to cover in five of their last six on the road, and five of their last six versus ACC teams.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-03-16 |
Arkansas +9 v. Florida |
Top |
83-87 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Florida Gators have won four of their last five, but I think they are asked to cover a few too many points at home to SEC rivals Arkansas tonight. The Razorbacks are coming off back to back wins over Texas Tech and Texas A&M. They did lose their last two road games, but by a combined margin of just five points at LSU and Georgia. They've covered the spread in six of their last eight overall, and three of their last four versus Florida. Arkansas scores a ton of points, averaging 81.6 per game. They are a better free throw shooting team that Florida, hitting 71.1 percent from the line. The last two meetings between these teams went right down to the wire, with Florida winning both games by a combined three points. The underdog has covered in four straight in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
02-02-16 |
Buffalo v. Northern Illinois -3 |
Top |
90-78 |
Loss |
-118 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Huskies will put their perfect home record to the test once again tonight when they host MAC rivals Buffalo. The Bulls have really struggled on the road, losing seven of 10 this season. The Huskies are one of the better three-point shooting teams in the MAC, hitting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. They are also dominant on the boards, averaging 37.7 rebounds per game at home. The Huskies are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games, and they've covered the spread in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record. They are 26-10-4 ATS in their last 40 versus conference rivals. They also have a dominant defense, holding opponents to just 64.3 points on 39.3 percent shooting at home. They only gave up 49 points in a 58-49 win over Toledo in their last home game.
Take NIU.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
02-01-16 |
Texas v. Baylor -5 |
Top |
67-59 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. The Texan Longhorns are coming off back to back home wins, and they've won five of their last six overall. They face a daunting task on the road tonight at Baylor though, as the Bears are 14-1 at home, and that one loss came at the hands of #1 ranked Oklahoma. Baylor scores an average of 81.7 points on 48.9 percent shooting at home, and they also average 37 rebounds per game. They should be able to dominate on the boards tonight, as Texas is averaging just 28.8 rebounds per game on the road. They are still without starting center and leading rebounder Cameron Ridley, who hasn't played since mid December. Texas lost at Baylor by 23 points last year, and it's dropped three of it's last four away from home. All four of Baylor's home wins against BIG12 teams have come by at least seven points. Take BAY. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-31-16 |
Maryland v. Ohio State +5 |
Top |
66-61 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Maryland has been one of the more overrated teams in the country this season, and I think they are being asked to cover a few too many points on the road at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won back to back games, and seven straight at home. One of those wins was a 74-67 upset over the #4 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. The Terrapins have lost their last two road games at Michigan State and Michigan, and they have lost their last two trips to Columbus. The Buckeyes are cleaning up on the board, averaging 38 rebounds per game at home. They out-rebounded the Illini 51-34 in their last game, and I expect them to own the glass tonight against a Maryland team that has only averaged 32 rebounds per game on the road. Ohio State is 8-2-1 ATS in it's last 11 home games. Take OSU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
San Francisco +17 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
48-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off an 84-67 home win over Santa Clara, but the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the WCC. This year's Bulldogs team hasn't been nearly as dominant as it has been in previous years. They've already suffered three home losses versus Arizona, UCLA and BYU. They are asked to cover an enormous number here against a San Francisco team that is one of the highest scoring teams in the conference. The Dons played them tough in San Francisco earlier in the year, blowing a big lead late, and then losing in overtime. The Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and they have been terrible against the spread this season. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Don's have covered the spread in seven of their last nine overall, and six of their last eight as a road underdog. Take SF. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 |
Top |
84-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas will host Kentucky in the BIG12/SEC Challenge on Saturday night, and the Wildcats have really looked vulnerable on the road. The Jayhawks on the other hand are 10-0 at home, and that includes a win over #1 ranked Oklahoma. Kentucky has lost at UCLA, LSU and Ohio State. The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 road games, and it doesn't get any tougher than this. Kansas has won and covered four straight non-conference games, while the Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. The competition in the BIG12 this year appears to be a cut above what the Wildcats have seen in the SEC. Kansas has won 34 straight at Allen Fieldhouse, and I expect that streak to continue here tonight. Take KU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington -8.5 |
Top |
67-74 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Eastern Washington Eagles. Last year's Big Sky champions have failed to impress this year, with a 10-10 overall record and just 4-4 within the conference. The Eagles have been dominant at home though, winning all seven of their games in Washington. The majority of those game were blowouts, such as Thursday's 112-83 shellacking of Portland State. Eastern Washington is averaging and incredible 92 points on 55.9 percent shooting at home. Sacramento State comes in as losers of five of it's last seven, and the Hornets are just 3-6 on the road. Starting guard Cody Demps has missed the last five games for the Hornets with a quadriceps injury, and he's questionable to play tonight. The Hornets have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the Big Sky. Take EWU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Virginia v. Louisville -5.5 |
Top |
63-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Louisville Cardinals. The Virginia Cavaliers have been a powerhouse in the ACC in recent years, but they've really struggled this season. They've dropped four of six on the road, and even though they managed to eke out a win at Wake Forest on Tuesday, they trailed by seven points with just 28 seconds remaining in that game. They connected with a trio of three-pointers in the final 14 seconds, including the winner at he buzzer. This should put them in a position for a big let down as they are in a much tougher spot at Louisville Saturday. The Cardinal are sitting in second in the ACC with a record of 6-1 in conference play. They are 13-0 at home, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10. Louisville should have an enormous advantage on the glass, coming in averaging more than 39 rebounds per game (10 more than the Cavs). They are lighting up the scoreboard at home, averaging 84.4 points on 51 percent shooting so far. The Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-30-16 |
Georgia Tech v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. Syracuse crushed Notre Dame at home on Thursday night, and I cashed in a winner in that game. Here is what I said before tip off: "The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals." The Orange have also been red hot from beyond the arc, shooting 40 percent from three point range over their last five games. They made 10 three-pointers in the win over the Irish. Georgia Tech is coming off a road win at North Carolina State, but had dropped three straight prior to that. After watching the Orange completely dismantle Notre Dame on Thursday, it's hard to imagine that the Yellow Jackets will have much of a chance here on Saturday. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-28-16 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse -3.5 |
Top |
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Notre Dame Irish are coming into Syracuse as winners of four straight, and that includes a 95-91 upset win at Duke. They haven't had much success in previous meetings with Syracuse, losing six of the last seven meetings and four straight at the Carrier Dome. It's not going to be easy to avoid another loss tonight, with leading scorer Demetrius Jackson sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Orange have won three of four, including a pair of wins on the road, one of those a 64-62 win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. They allowed just 52.3 points on 34.2 percent shooting in those three wins. Michael Gbinije leads the Orange in scoring, and he's among the national leaders with 53 steals. That's of particular concern for the Irish, who will rely on junior guard Steve Vasturia to take over ball handling duties with Jackson injured. Notre Dame is 1-4-1 ATS in it's last six games versus teams with a winning record.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-27-16 |
Purdue v. Minnesota +14 |
|
68-64 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
The Golden Gophers have lost nine straight, and a 10th consecutive loss seems probable tonight. They host #21 ranked Purdue, and they will be a double digit home dog. While the losses have piled up, it's not as if Minnesota hasn't been competitive. The Gopher's last three losses have all come in close games, losing by five points to Illinois and Michigan, and by just seven points at home to Indiana. "It's tough," said coach Richard Pitino. "You're working hard. You're playing hard. You want to win. And you're just not finding a way to do it." These teams have a history of playing close games, with each of the last four meetings decided by four points or less. The Boiler Makers will be short-handed, with forward Caleb Swanigan nursing a sprained ankle, and Vince Edwards trying to shake off a head injury. Both players may still see action, but guard Kendall Stephens will sit out a second straight game due to personal reasons. I think the Boilers Makers are being asked to cover a few too many points against a BIG10 rival on the road.
Take MINN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-27-16 |
Louisville v. Virginia Tech +8 |
Top |
91-83 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Virginia Tech has lost back to back games, but both of those were close. Their last game was a 75-70 loss to North Carolina at home, and before that they lost at Notre Dame by a score of 83-81. They are getting a bunch of points at home tonight versus Louisville, and the Cardinals haven't been all that formidable on the road. They lost at Clemson, and wins at Georgia Tech and N.C. State came by a combined nine points. Louisville has struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 70.8 points on 43 percent shooting. The Hokies are averaging over 78 points per game at home, and they've allowed the opposition to average just 67.7. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, and they've failed to cover in six of their last eight overall. The Hokies have covered the spread in four straight at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Indiana v. Wisconsin +2 |
Top |
79-82 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. The Indiana Hoosiers are 7-0 in conference play, and their stock is on the rise. I think the #19 ranked Hoosiers are a little overrated coming into Wisconsin as a favorite. They just barely escaped with a 59-58 win at home when the two teams played earlier this season. Wisconsin has suffered a few losses at home, but they looked pretty tough in a 63-60 loss to Maryland. Melo Trimble hit a buzzer beater to break the Badgers hearts in that game. The Badgers most recent home game was an upset win over Michigan State, led by Bronson Koenig's 27 point performance. The Hoosiers have really struggled against Wisconsin, going 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and losing five straight in Madison. Take WISC. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-26-16 |
Virginia v. Wake Forest +7 |
Top |
72-71 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 4-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last six overall, and all three wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. They snuck by Syracuse at home on the weekend, and now they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Wake Forest. The Cavs only have one win in five games on the road this season, and that was at Ohio State in December. They won that game 64-58, less than the margin they are asked to cover tonight. Virginia has since lost at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Not exacty powerhouse teams. Four of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, and Virginia is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take WAKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-25-16 |
Duke +3.5 v. Miami (Fla) |
Top |
69-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. We don't often see Duke as an underdog, but after sufferring three straight losses in conference play, the Blue Devils stock is low. All three of those losses came in close games against hot teams, and they turned things around with a double digit win on the road at N.C. State in their last game. Miami has an impressive record, but there's no denying that the Hurricanes have had a much softer schedule. Home court hasn't been much of an advantage in recent meetings between these two schools, as the home team is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10. The Canes upset Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season, which sets up a nice revenge play here in Miami. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Utah v. Washington +3 |
|
80-75 |
Loss |
-106 |
12 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the Washington #Huskies.
The Huskies have been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball this season, sitting at the top of the PAC12 with a 5-1 conference record. They haven't exactly had a soft schedule either, knocking off the likes of Colorado, USC and UCLA. They host Utah tonight, and the Utes have a history of struggling on the road. They've suffered losses at Stanford and California already this season.
Washington has won four of it's last five home meetings with Utah, and the Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus the PAC12. Rebounding isn't a strong point for Utah, and the Utes only managed 23 rebounds in a 77-68 loss at Washington in the last meeting. The Huskies have been dominating on the boards, averaging over 40 rebounds per game at home. The Utes have become a little overrated and they've failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games against conference rivals.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Syracuse +9.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. The Virginia Cavaliers have failed to impress so far, with a 3-3 record in conference play. They've lost three of their last five overall, and both wins during that span were in games decided by single digits. Still they are asked to win by double digits at home to Syracuse, a team that's coming off big road wins over Wake Forest and Duke. The Orange got off to a slow start, but that's understandable as they were missing head coach Jim Boeheim. Since his return they have turned things around winning three of four, but they can't afford to too many more losses if they want to keep post-season aspirations alive. The Orange have really turned up the heat on defense, allowing just 63 points per game over their last five. That's slightly less than Virginia has surrendered during the same span. "Our rebounding has been better and our defense has been better and those are two things you have to do, especially defense," said Boeheim. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
Providence +13 v. Villanova |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The #16 ranked Providence Friars will be a big underdog at Villanova on Sunday, getting a double digit cushion. Providence hasn't had any trouble winning on the road, with a 4-0 record this year. Dating back to last season, they've covered the spread in eight straight on the road. They also have a history of playing close games against division rivals Villanova, as three of their last four versus the Wildcats have been decided by six points or less. The last meeting was a 63-61 home win for the Wildcats, who failed to cover as an 8.5 point favorite. Villanova is 7-0 in the Big East, and 10-0 at home. The Wildcats have been tested though, wins over Georgetown, Butler and Seton Hall all coming by a single digit margin. Providence has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 in this series, and the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-24-16 |
SMU v. Temple +7 |
Top |
80-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Temple Owls.
Temple has won six of it's last eight overall, and during that span the Owls upset Cincinnati twice (once on the road). They host the SMU Mustangs in an early game Sunday, and SMU is asked to cover a bunch of points on the road. While Larry Brown's team is still undefeated, they may be vulnerable to an upset here. They did win at Temple last January, but only by five points (60-55). The Owls won 71-64 at home in 2014, and they were an eight point underdog in that game. Temple doesn't have the offensive firepower to match the Mustangs, but the Owls can play defense. In fact they've held the opposition to just 58.8 points on 36.7 percent shooting over their last five games. One of those was an impressive 55-53 win at Connecticut. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five in this series, and that trend should continue on Sunday.
Take TEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-23-16 |
Vanderbilt +6 v. Kentucky |
Top |
57-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Kentucky has looked vulnerable lately, losing on the road at Auburn and LSU, and barely beating Mississippi State at home. The Wildcats may have their hands full at home this Saturday, hosting a Vanderbilt team that has won three straight. The Commodores crushed the Vols in Tennessee on Thursday by a score of 88-74. They hit 13 three-pointers, and out-rebounded Tennessee 50-43. The Vols have lost four of five overall on the road, but they've played some close games. They've actually covered the spread in nine of their last 13 road games. They've also been a great bet against Kentucky, as the Wildcats have failed to cover in seven straight against Vanderbilt. The Commodores will have a huge size advantage with a pair of seven footers, and junior forward Luke Kornet who has been a force during this three game winning streak. Kornet has scored 29 points, 31 rebounds with a whopping 16 blocks over the last three games. Take VAN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Georgetown v. Xavier -9.5 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is an 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The Georgetown Hoyas are coming off a home loss to Villanova, and they'll have their work cut out for them on the road at Xavier tonight. The Musketeers are 16-1 overall, and 9-0 at home. They've won their last four games by an average margin of 16 points, and two of those wins came on the road. They've covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 overall, and four of their last five versus the Hoyas. They've been historically great at home, going 41-18 ATS in their last 59 home games. The Musketeers scored 36 points on 12 made three pointers in their last home game, and also shot 80 percent from the free throw line in an 84-64 win over DePaul. The Hoyas will be at a severe disadvantage when it comes to rebounding and perimeter shooting, and I think it's going to be tough to overcome for the visitors.
Take Xavier.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
NC State v. Pittsburgh -8 |
|
78-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Pittsburgh bounced back from a tough loss at Louisville by crushing Boston College 84-61 on Saturday, and they are just a single digit favorite at home to N.C. State tonight. The Wolfpack have lost five straight, and they haven't showed me anything that suggests that they can be competitive on the road against a team like Pitt. N.C. State has lost three straight on the road, while Pittsburgh is 12-1 at home. The Panthers have scored plenty of points at home, averaging 83.7 points on 49.7 percent shooting. They are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, hitting just under 80 percent from the charity stripe. They've 10 straight at home, and eight of those wins came by a double digit margin.
Take PITT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-19-16 |
Clemson +10.5 v. Virginia |
|
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Clemson Tigers.
It's getting harder and harder to overlook the Clemson Tigers, as they come into Virginia as winners of five straight. Now it's not just the fact that they've won a few games, it's the teams that they've been beating. They've upset Duke, Louisville and Miami at home, and they won on the road at Syracuse. Now there's no doubt that a road game at Virginia could spell trouble for the Tigers, but I still don't see how a Cavs team that has lost three of it's last four should be asked to cover a double-digit spread. The Cavs aren't a great offensive team at the best of times, and they've scored an average of 67.4 points over their last five games. Clemson's offense has been firing on all cylinders, and junior F Jaron Blossomgame is coming off a season high 25 points versus Miami. I like the Tigers to keep it close here in Virginia.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-17-16 |
Michigan v. Iowa -7.5 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa has won 10 of it's last 11 overall, and that one loss came on the road at rivals Iowa State in a game that they led 49-35 at halftime. They host Michigan Sunday, and the Wolverines are coming off a home win over #3 ranked Maryland. The Wolverines didn't exactly catch Maryland at their best, as Melo Trimble scored just two points on 1-of-7 shooting. They appear to be primed for a let down here in Iowa, against a team that has averaged 85.9 points on 46.9 percent shooting while winning all eight of it's home games. The Hawkeyes swept the series last year, winning both games by a double digit margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 in their last 11 versus conference rivals, and Michigan is shorthanded without it's best player Caris LaVert. The Wolverines got crushed in an 87-70 loss to Purdue in their last road game, The Boilermakers owned the boards in that game, out-rebounding Michigan 36-28. They are likely to struggle on the boards here in Iowa as well, the Hawkeyes average 38 rebounds per game at home.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Oklahoma State +7.5 v. Texas |
Top |
69-74 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Texas Longhorns had lost three of four overall before beating Iowa State in overtime, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. Texas is a big favorite here on Saturday against Oklahoma State, and I am not convinced that the Longhorns can cover such a number. Their win over the Cyclones was only their second in the last five games, and each of their last three wins have come by three points or less. The Cowboys have been a good bet in previous meetings, going 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 versus Texas. The Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Seton Hall v. Providence -6 |
Top |
81-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Providence Friars.
The Friars will host Big East rivals Seton Hall on Saturday, and they've won four straight in this series. The Pirates have lost back to back games to Creighton and Villanova, and they are just are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 versus the Big East. Providence has covered the spread in five of it's last six versus Conference rivals. Providence won the last meeting by a score of 79-66 at Seton Hall last March. The Friars scored 29 points at the charity stripe in that game, and they are averaging 71.2 percent from the free throw line this season. The Pirates are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big East, while the Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference rivals.
Take PROV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-16-16 |
Notre Dame v. Duke -8.5 |
Top |
95-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. Duke is coming off a sub-par performance on the road at Clemson, losing by a score of 68-63. The Blue Devils had won five straight prior that, and they are still undefeated at home. Few teams can say that they've had any success at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Blue Devils are 58-1 in Durham since Nov. 9, 2012, and one of those wins was a 90-60 blowout against the Irish last year. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in seven of their last nine versus conference rivals, and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. They've averaged 93.5 points on 50 percent shooting while going 10-0 at home, but perhaps their biggest advantage over the Irish is on the boards. They are averaging almost 40 rebounds per game, while the Irish are averaging less than 30. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-14-16 |
Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco -4.5 |
|
87-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 8* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons are coming off a 102-92 loss at BYU on Saturday, and they are just 3-3 against WCC teams. Those three losses though came against the big boys of the WCC (St. Mary's, Gonzaga and BYU). Only one of those losses came at home, falling 102-94 to Gonzaga in overtime. They are back at home tonight, taking on the Loyola Marymount Lions. The Lions have lost four straight, and they have failed to cover in eight of their last nine versus conference rivals. The visitors may not have the firepower to keep up with the Dons offensively, San Francisco has averaged over 90 points on 48.9 percent shooting over it's last five games. During that same span the Lions have averaged 58.6 points on 37.4 percent shooting. The Dons won the last meeting by a score of 72-45, and they out-rebounded the Lions 41-27 in that game. I expect them to own the boards again tonight, and they should cruise to an easy victory against an inferior opponent.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-14-16 |
Pittsburgh +7 v. Louisville |
Top |
41-59 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a loss to Clemson on Sunday, and yet they are still asked to cover an enormous spread at home tonight against a Pittsburgh team that has won 10 straight. I bet against Louisville in their loss to Clemson, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"The Louisville Cardinals will be a big favorite on the road at Clemson Sunday, and I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams."
They have now failed to cover in four straight (I bet against them in all four games), and one of those was a home win over Wake Forest by single digits. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 83.6 points on 48.9 percent shooting over their last five games. During that same span the Cardinal have scored just 75.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Perhaps the biggest edge for the visitors is that they rank first nationally, shooting 80.1 percent from the free throw line. Louisville is hitting a rather pedestrian 68 percent from the charity stripe.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Florida State v. NC State -1 |
Top |
85-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the N.C. State Wolfpack.
The Florida State Seminoles have kicked off conference play with three straight losses, all of the "blowout" variety. They are on the road at N.C. State tonight, and the Wolfpack are also looking for their first win against a conference opponent. While both teams have lost three straight, the Wolfpack have a lot more to hang their hat on. They've played relatively well, losing by five points at Virginia Tech, and by just three points at Wake Forest. Their lone home game during that span was against #16 ranked Louisville, and they pushed the Cardinals to the brink, but lost 77-72. They have been a good bet in recent meetings with Florida State, winning three of the last four outright, and covering the spread in all three of those victories. Last year they won by a score of 72-63 at Tallahassee, and leading scorer Anthony Barber didn't even play in that game. That didn't stop them from cleaning up on the boards, and limiting FSU to 19-of-51 (31.7%) from the field. I expect the home team to take care of business here against a team that they've owned in previous seasons.
Take NCST
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-13-16 |
Duke -6.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
63-68 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Clemson Tigers are flying high, but I think they're about to get their wings clipped here at home versus Duke. I bet on Clemson as a nine point dog at home when they played Louisville on Sunday, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"I think this young Louisville team is overrated. They come in ranked #16 in the polls with a record of 13-2, but they've lost two of their three road games, and they are 0-2 versus Top 25 teams. Clemson isn't a great team, but the Tigers are 7-2 at home, and they've played their best ball while winning back to back games against Florida State and Syracuse."
Now they are playing a much stronger Duke team, and they are getting fewer points. This is also a let down spot for the Tigers, who might be feeling a bit too good about himself coming off such a big upset. Duke is coming off five straight wins, scoring an average of 92.4 points on 51 percent shooting. The Blue Devils have shot 53 percent while winning both their road games so far this season, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus conference opponents.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-12-16 |
Iowa State -1.5 v. Texas |
Top |
91-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Hawkeyes. The Texas Longhorns have lost three of their last four overall, and one of those defeats came at home to Connecticut by a score of 71-66. Their leading scorer and rebounder Cameron Ridley didn't play in any of those games, and he remains sidelined with a foot injury. I think he will be sorely missed here against the Cyclones, who have looked very solid on the road. Iowa State won outright at Cincinnati, and lost a close game 87-83 at Oklahoma. Texas got killed on the boards in a loss to TCU on Saturday, and it shot just 37.1 percent from the field, and 14 percent from three point range. "I think offensively, we've got to continue to get better at playing faster," coach Shaka Smart said , "getting out in transition to get some easier baskets, because right now we're struggling to shoot the ball from outside in the half court." The Cyclones have averaged 82 points on 47 percent shooting on the road so far. Take ISU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-12-16 |
Florida v. Texas A&M -5.5 |
Top |
68-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies are 13-2 overall, and 9-0 at home. They host the Florida Gators tonight, and I don't think this game will be all that close. The Aggies are coming off a win on the road at Tennessee, just a few days after the Vols crushed Florida by a score of 83-69. The Gators are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Florida has averaged just 58.8 points per game on 37.8 points per game on the road this year. They've really struggled at the free throw line, hitting just 58.3 percent. The Aggies are averaging 86.8 points on 51.4 percent shooting while remaining unbeaten at home. They've covered the spread in five straight home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-10-16 |
Valparaiso v. Detroit +7.5 |
Top |
92-74 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Titans.
Valparaiso is a great team, and it's coming off an impressive road win over a good Oakland team. The Crusaders were a three point favorite in that game, but would win by a score of 84-67. Here we are just a few days later, and Valparaiso is facing another tough opponent on the road, but this time they are asked to cover a much bigger number at Detroit, a team that is undefeated at home. The Titans are 9-0, scoring an average of 87.4 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting in those games. They've played Valparaiso seven times since March of 2012, covering the spread in five of those seven games. They won four of those contests outright, and most of their losses came by just a few points. The Titans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Crusaders might be missing starting PG Keith Carter, the senior is listed as questionable with a foot injury.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Kansas v. Texas Tech +7.5 |
|
69-59 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a Free #NCAAB play on the #TTU Red Raiders.
The Kansas Jayhawks are the top ranked team in the country, and they are coming off an incredible triple-OT win over Oklahoma. They come into tonight's game at Texas Tech laying a bunch of points on the road, and I think the Jayhawks are due for a let down here. The Red Raiders are coming off a 76-69 loss at Iowa State, but they are 11-2 overall and have yet to lose at home.
Bookmakers haven't given Texas Tech much respect, and they've been one of the best bets so far this season, covering the spread in eight straight overall and 10 of their last 12 versus teams with a winning record. They've averaged 78.1 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting while going 8-0 at home, which is significantly better than the 70 points Kansas has averaged on the road.
The Jayhawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams, and I think they are asked to cover a few too many points on the road here. While they have won 10 straight versus Texas Tech since 2011, they've failed to cover in two of their last three at Lubbock.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Georgia v. Ole Miss -2.5 |
Top |
71-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels lost their SEC opener on the road at Kentucky, but bounced back with a big home win over Alabama on Thursday. They will host the Georgia Bulldogs tonight, and Georgia is coming off a home win over Missouri. It seems a little surprising that Mississippi is just a slight favorite, considering that Georgia is winless on the road. The Bulldogs lost their most recent road game at Florida by a score of 77-63.
Mississippi is 6-0 at home, and has averaged 82.7 points on 45.6 percent shooting in those games. Georgia has failed to cover in five straight on the road, and has average just 62.5 points on 40 percent shooting so far on the road this season.
The Rebels out-rebounded Alabama 37-30 in their last game, and F Sebastian Saiz pulled down 16 of those boards. Mississippi has averaged over 37 rebounds at home, while the Bulldogs have averaged fewer than 30 on the road.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
St. Mary's -7.5 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
14 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
St. Mary's is still unranked, despite a 14-1 record, with all 14 of those wins coming by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 73-48 road win at Loyola Marymount, and they will be on the road at Pepperdine this afternoon. There's no doubt that the Wave are a better team than the Lions, but Pepperdine just barely beat them at home in overtime last Saturday. Since then they played another close game against the 3-11 Pacific Tigers. The Gaels come in as the nation's best shooting team hitting 54.9 percent from the field. They rank second in three point field goal percentage, hitting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc. St. Mary's is 19-7 ATS in it's last 26 versus the West Coast, and it has covered in five of it's last six on the road. The Gaels should be looking at another double digit win here.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Texas A&M v. Tennessee +5.5 |
Top |
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Vols will host #21 ranked Texas A&M on Saturday, and Tennessee is getting a handful of points as a home dog. The Aggies just narrowly defeated Mississippi State on Wednesday, winning by a score of 61-60. Tennessee is 8-0 at home, and they are coming off an 83-69 win over Florida. They cleaned up on the boards in that game, out-rebounding Florida 49-40. These teams have a history of playing close games, and two of the last four games were decided in overtime. The underdog covered in all four of those games. The Vols have won seven of their last 10 home games against ranked teams, and each of those three losses came against teams ranked in the top three. I'll take a generous spread with the home team.
Take TENN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-07-16 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock -7 |
Top |
57-77 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans.
The Trojans have had a spectacular start to the season, winning 12 of 13 games. Their only loss came on the road at Texas Tech, and so far they have manhandled inferior opponents. They have kicked off conference play with consecutive road wins, and now they return home to host the 5-6 Ragin' Cajuns. Louisiana Lafayette has lost three straight on the road to Pepperdine, UCLA and Louisiana Tech. They've also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six on the road, and I don't think they're getting near enough points here in tonight's game. The Trojans have scored an average of 81.5 points on 49.6 percent shooting at home so far, and they are shooting almost 80 percent from the charity stripe. This game should be a double digit blowout win for the home team.
Take UALR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Texas Tech +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
69-76 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech had cruised through non-conference play, winning 10 of 11 games. The only loss during that span came by a score of 73-63 to Utah in Puerto Rico. They looked pretty good in a 82-74 win over Texas in their BIG12 opener, and prior to that they beat Richmond and Arkansas Little Rock by double digits. The Cyclones have had their moments, and they come in ranked #13 overall. While they've won 11 of their 13 games, they have not been very consistent. They were trailing Iowa by 21 points on their home floor back in December, but rallied to win that game by a score of 83-82. They've also won close games against Cincinnati and Colorado by a combined seven points, and when they've faced inferior opponents the results have not been impressive. They are asked to cover double digits against a Red Raiders team that is 6-0 ATS in it's last six, and 6-2 ATS in it's last eight versus BIG12 teams.
Take Texas Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
Clemson v. Syracuse -5 |
|
74-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Orange will play at home versus Clemson tonight, still looking for their first win in conference play. They have lost back to back games to Pittsburgh and Miami on the road, but I like their chances of winning convincingly here at home against an inferior opponent. The Tigers are 0-3 on the road, while the Orange are 7-1 at home. Clemson has been struggling lately, coming in shooting just 37.8 percent over their last five games. Clemson has failed to cover in six of it's last eight road games, and their three road losses this season have come by a combined 40 points. This could also be a let down spot for Clemson, coming off a home win over Florida State. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
South Carolina v. Auburn +6 |
Top |
81-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Auburn Tigers. The South Carolina Gamecocks are still undefeated, but I think they are a little overrated heading into a tough road game against an SEC rival tonight. Their 13-0 record looks impressive, but they've had a soft schedule, and tonight's game should prove to be their toughest to date. Auburn is coming off an 83-77 win over Tennessee in it's SEC opener, and the Tigers are 5-1 at home. They've won six of their last seven versus South Carolina, covering the spread in six of those contests. Keep in mind that this Gamecocks team got off to a hot start last season, winning 9-of-12 in non-conference play, only to lose six of their first seven versus SEC teams. This looks like a generous cushion for the Tigers at home, and I think they'll give the Gamecocks a run for their money. Take AUB. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
Richmond v. Rhode Island -3.5 |
Top |
65-77 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Rhode Island Rams.
The Richmond Spiders are coming off back to back losses to St. Joseph's and Texas Tech, and they face another tough opponent on the road in Rhode Island tonight. The Rams are 7-2 at home, and they are coming off an 85-57 win over the Saint Louis Billikens. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 44 percent from beyond the arc in that game, out-rebounding Saint Louis 38-26. Richmond has really struggled from the free throw line on the road, hitting just over 50 percent while losing two of three. The Rams have defeated Richmond in each of the last two seasons, winning 79-74 at Richmond last year, and 66-43 at home the year before. I can't see any reason for Richmond to expect a better result this time around.
Take URI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-03-16 |
Wake Forest +14.5 v. Louisville |
Top |
57-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Louisville Cardinals come into Sunday's game against Wake Forest with an 11-2 record, but most of those wins came against inferior opponents. They've faced two quality opponents, losing both games to Michigan State and Kentucky. Louisville is asked to cover double digits at home here despite missing their starting PG and second leading scorer Trey Lewis. He suffered a severe ankle sprain in Friday's practice, and coach Rick Pitino didn't sound optimistic about his team's situation: "We are behind the 8-ball with no backup point," Pitino said. "We will see with practice what to do. Levitch is option one. Ryan off redshirt option two. There is no foreseeable third option." Wake Forest has been a good bet as an underdog, going 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. Louisville has been putting up big numbers, but those are a little inflated due to their soft schedule. The one area where they haven't looked so strong is at the free throw line, hitting just 66.7 percent at home. Wake Forest is shooting 72.8 percent from the charity stripe on the road.
Take WAKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +14 |
Top |
102-94 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be a double digit favorite on the road in San Francisco tonight, coming off a 79-79 road win over Santa Clara. The Bulldogs are 11-3 overall, and they have won both their road game so far this season. They come into tonight's game riding a five game winning streak, but it's not all good news for Gonzaga. Their big man Przemek Karnowski for the rest of the season with a back injury, and their young guards have struggled. This team is really missing the experience of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Pangos scored 17 points in an 81-70 win over the Dons when Gonzaga played at San Francisco last season. They are asked to cover an even bigger spread this time around, and this team is nowhere near as skilled as it was then. In fact this enormous number makes very little sense when you consider that Gonzaga is 2-8-1 ATS in it's last 11 road games, and 4-11 ATS in it's last 15 games against San Francisco.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Texas v. Texas Tech -4 |
Top |
74-82 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Texas Longhorns will come into this rivalry game against the Red Raiders without their leading scorer center Cameron Ridley. They didn't fare well without him in their last game, a 71-66 home loss to Connecticut. They lost the battle on the boards to the Huskies (36-34), and rebounding is going to be a challenge here against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have a bigger fan base, and that's often resulted in them being overrated when the two teams meet. This is evidenced by the fact that Texas Tech is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season, and it has covered the spread in each of the last six of those games. Their last two games were particularly impressive, beating Richmond by 15 points, and ending the unbeaten run of Arkansas Little Rock. They slaughtered the Spiders on the glass, out-rebounding Richmond 43-20. They shot 30-of-58 (51.7 percent) from the field in that game, winning 85-70. They should be able to handle a short-handed Texas team today.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Colorado +6.5 v. California |
|
65-79 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Buffaloes.
The California Golden Bears will play their first PAC12 game at home against Colorado, and Cal is a big favorite. I am not convinced that the Bears are the better team here, and I think we're getting a generous point spread considering Colorado has the better overall record, and is 2-0 on the road so far. These teams have played close games in recent seasons, with Cal taking two of the last three. The combined margin of victory in those three contests was just 11 points, and Colorado has lost it's last two visits to Berkley by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are cleaning up on the boards, averaging just shy of 40 rebounds per game. Colorado has covered the spread in four of it's last five road games, and five of it's last six in California. The Buffaloes are hitting for a higher percentage from the free throw line, and they've hit 83 percent of their free throws in their two road wins. California's last game was a blowout win over Davidson, and I think that set's them up for a let down here tonight.
Take COL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
UCLA v. Washington |
|
93-96 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins.
The Washington Huskies open conference play at home versus UCLA, and Washington has looked vulnerable. The Huskies have lost two of their last three to UC Santa Barbara and Oakland, and both of those losses came at home. Their leading scorer Andrew Andrews has been struggling, shooting just 30.8 percent from the field in his last three games. The Bruins have owned Washington, winning five straight and consecutive trips to Seattle since 2012. UCLA's only road game so far was an outright win at Gonzaga, in a game that they were listed as an 8.5 point underdog. The Bruins have also been far better within the conference, covering the spread in seven of their last nine versus the PAC12, while the Huskies are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus PAC12 opponents.
Take UCLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Utah -3.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
68-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes have always been a better home team than they have been on the road, but this year's Utes might be the best team Larry Krystkowiak has ever coached. They sure looked like world beaters in a 77-75 win over Duke at MSG. They will open PAC12 play on the road at Stanford, where they have not done well in previous seasons. The Cardinal have already lost a couple of home games though, and I haven't been impressed with their recent play. They have been brutal in conference play, failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. Utah has shot 55.4 percent from the field, scoring an average of 85.4 point over it's last five games. During that span Stanford has scored just 71 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting. The Utes also have a huge edge in free throw shooting, hitting 74.1 percent in comparison to 65.8 percent by Stanford. Utah has hit 81 percent from the free throw line on the road.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-31-15 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -5.5 |
Top |
74-85 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
The Gaels are 11-1 straight up, and 7-0 at home. Their only defeat came in a close game decided by just four points at Cal. They host BYU tonight, and the Cougars have failed to impress, and they are 0-3 on the road. BYU lost 82-77 at St. Mary's last year, and it's pretty obvious that this year's Gaels team is vastly improved, while the Cougars don't look as good as they did a year ago. St. Mary's ranks 5th nationally in opponent's scoring average, first in field goal percentage (.538), fourth in assists and second in three point field goal percentage (.452). Those numbers are even more impressive at home, where they have covered in eight of their last 10 games, and 20 of their last 27. I think the only reason why the Cougars aren't a bigger dog here, is that their school has a strong basketball history and plenty of name recognition. That isn't going to help them against a St. Mary's team that appears to be far better in all aspects of the game.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Nevada v. New Mexico -7 |
Top |
76-88 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos have lost four straight, but three of those losses came in the Diamondhead Classic Tournament in Hawaii. They are back on their home court tonight, hosting the Nevada Wolfpack, and I expect New Mexico to get back on track against an inferior opponent. The Lobos are 6-1 at home so far, with impressive wins over rivals New Mexico State and UNI. The Wolpack have lost four of five on the road, and were beaten by a whopping 19 points at Cal State Fullerton. New Mexico averages 81.6 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting at home, while the Wolfpack are shooting just 37.4 percent, scoring an average of 71 on the road. Nevada has failed to cover in four straight against teams from the Mountain West, and it should probably be a double digit dog here.
Take UNM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-29-15 |
Richmond v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
70-85 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Red Raiders have won nine of 10 overall, and they are still undefeated at home. They host the Richmond Spiders tonight, only asked to cover a handful of points. I don't expect this game to be quite as close as the betting line suggests. Richmond is 1-1 on the road, with a 20-point loss at Florida. They are going to be facing a Texas Tech front court with a big size advantage, and I think they are going to get killed on the glass. The Red Raiders are averaging 36 rebounds per game at home, while Richmond has averaged just 27.5 on the road. The home team also has an advantage at the free throw line, averaging 72.3 percent at home, while the Spiders are shooting just 58.2 percent from the line on the road. The Spiders have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG12, while Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Davidson +9.5 v. California |
Top |
60-86 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Davidson Wildcats.
Davidson is a double digit dog on the road at California tonight, and I can't quite see how anyone can expect Cal to cover such a big number. If you look at their schedule, they've looked pretty pedestrian at home, despite an 8-0 record. They beat Seattle by 14, East Carolina by eight, and IW by just a dozen. The Wildcats are in a different class than any of those teams. They are 8-2 overall, and leading scorer Jack Gibbs ranks third in the country with over 26 points per game. He is coming off a 41 point performance in the win over Morehead State last week. Davidson has been a great bet on the road, covering in 21 of it's last 27 road games. Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five at home.
Take DAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Louisville v. Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
73-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Wildcats will host the Louisville Cardinals in a huge rivalry game at Rupp Arena on Boxing Day, and Kentucky has slipped all the way to #12 in the rankings after losing in New York to the Buckeyes. At first glance it might look like a good spot to go against a Kentucky team that appears vulnerable, but I am not about to go against a team that has won 96 of it's last 100 home games under coach Cal.
Not when they are only asked to cover a couple points, and not even against a Louisville team that leads the nation in scoring margin (+30.2) and rank second in field goal percentage (.512). Why not? Well Louisville has only faced one ranked team, and that was a 71-67 loss at Michigan State. The majority of the Cardinals wins have come at home against inferior opponents.
The Wildcats have beaten Duke, and won by double digits at home against a very good Arizona State team. Freshman guard Jamaal Murray scored a career high 33 points against Ohio State, hitting 7-of-9 from beyond the arc. I still believe Kentucky is a deeper, more talented team that should be a far bigger favorite on it's home floor.
Take UK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Mercer +10.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
44-64 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Mercer Bears.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky, but that sets them up for a let down here tonight at home versus Mercer. The Bears are coming in a double digit dog, and they are the team with the better record. Mercer is 9-2 overall, and it's last game was a win over the Razorbacks in Arkansas. The Buckeyes have lost three home games already to Texas Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Virginia. Mercer has a huge edge at the free throw line, hitting 74.7 percent, nearly 10 points better than OSU. They are also better on the boards, with a deeper bench and they have a size advantage. The Bears have also shot better than 40 percent from three point range over their last five games.
Take Mercer.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
55-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Commodores come into Purdue off a string of poor performances, and I don't like their chances here without starting forward Luke Kornet. The 7 foot junior is out for four to six weeks with a knee injury, and without him Vandy has not looked good. They lost to Baylor and Dayton, before winning their last game against Wofford. The Boiler Makers are 11-1, thanks to their twin towers Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons. Without Kornet the Commodores have struggled on the boards, and they face a Purdue team that out-rebounding opponents by an average margin over 12 points. Vandy has lost 10 straight to Top 25 teams, while the Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the SEC. I expect Purdue to win this game by double-digits.
Take Purdue.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|