Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS The old adage “it’s hard to be the same team three times in one season” is kind of a lie. Teams that swept the regular season games have gone 14-8 straight up in the playoff meeting. That’s the situation New Orleans is in here. They beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1 and then 38-3 in Week 9. They are playing this game at home where they just easily defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round, 21-9. The only touchdown given up by the Saints defense came with no time left on the clock. The last three weeks have seen them allow just 212 rush yards total. They are giving up just 306.8 yards per game this year. The last two games, the Saints have allowed only 16 points. This defense always does a good job of containing Tampa Bay’s best receiver Mike Evans. Though it wasn’t a banner game for the offense against the Bears, they are now fully healthy on that side of the ball and should be better this week. Don’t see the Saints losing at home. They have covered the last four times as home favorites. In games against teams with winning records, the Buccaneers have lost four of five. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -6 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -103 | 102 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH So the Browns, who could barely beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph playing QB, now have to travel to Pittsburgh to face Big Ben and will do so without their head coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID list). That’s problematic. Cleveland was only 6-10 ATS in the regular season, the worst ATS record among the 14 playoff teams. That includes 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents. Baker Mayfield is just 9-14 ATS on the road in his career. Not only could the Browns barely beat Rudolph and some other Steelers backups last week, they lost 38-7 here in Pittsburgh. The Browns actually gave up more points than they scored in the regular season. They got here because of a 7-2 record in one-score games and beating plenty of bad teams. It can’t be understated how big of a disadvantage not having your head coach (who happens to double as the play caller) is. The Steelers’ defense is excellent at defending play action, which is when Mayfield is at his best. There will be Browns players out for this game as well including OL Bitoni and pass rusher Vernon. The facility was closed for much of the week. They’ve lost 17 in a row at Pittsburgh. Remember the Steelers were 11-0? Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON No one thinks Washington belongs here, but that’s okay by us as we’re taking the points. The Football Team was really solid down the stretch, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. Both losses were when Alex Smith did not start. While there will be much focus on what Smith can or can’t do in light of his injury, we are very bullish on what the Washington defense WILL do. They should get after Tom Brady and everyone knows that pressure is the way to limit Brady’s success. Seven straight Washington opponents have been held to 20 points or fewer. The Bucs may not have WR Mike Evans, who is a gametime decision. While everyone will call this a “mismatch,” big road favorites in the playoffs are rare and unprofitable. There have been only three instances of the road team laying more than six points since 1970. None of those three teams covered. They actually all lost outright! Since the 1982 strike, there have been only two 7-9 teams to make the playoffs (before Washington this year). Both won on Wild Card Weekend. Not saying the Football Team wins here, but they’ll definitely make it interesting. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Division rivals Seattle and Los Angeles met twice during the regular season and the home team won both games. Both games were also low-scoring and stayed Under. The Rams won 23-16 the first time around with Seattle returning the favor 20-9 two weeks ago here at CenturyLink Field. The big story heading into this weekend’s rubber match centers around who will be playing quarterback for the Rams. Jared Goff recently underwent thumb surgery, causing him to miss the team’s final regular season game. While the Rams still won last week, that was against a flailing Cardinals team whose own QB was injured. Whether it’s Goff or John Wolford, the Rams have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks and they’ve scored only 71 points total the last four games. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson and while his second half numbers declined (after an amazing first half of the season), he is - by far- the better starting QB in this game. Don’t discount the improvement we’ve seen from the Seattle defense over the last eight games either. They have not given up more than 23 points to anybody in that stretch. Safety Jamal Adams, the reason for the improvement, has said he will play Saturday (his 1st playoff game). The Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games when favored including all seven with Wilson. The Rams defense allows 10 points/game more on the road than they do at home. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-03-21 | Raiders -2 v. Broncos | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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12-28-20 | Bills -7 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Drew Brees returned to the starting lineup last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the Saints from losing a second straight game by exactly a three-point margin. It would be unwise to start writing off the Saints, however. Not only is Brees back, but the last time they lost two in a row (Weeks 2 & 3), they responded with a 10-game win streak. They also aren’t facing the Chiefs this week. Instead, it’s Minnesota, who just lost at home to Chicago. The Vikings have also lost two in a row and even worse they’ve failed to cover five straight games. New Orleans is looking to clinch the division with a win and we really like their chances playing at home on Christmas Day. The Saints have feasted on losing teams, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS their L15 such games, including 6-1 and 5-2 in 2020. It was just two weeks ago we were all speaking of their defense as being the best in the league. That unit should get back on track this week. Can’t say the same for Minnesota’s defense, which is giving up 27.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Vikings have just one win against a team with a winning record all year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 113 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-20-20 | Jets +17 v. Rams | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY JETS The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 109 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -102 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALTIMORE Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -100 | 104 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-13-20 | Cardinals -2 v. Giants | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA If not for the “Hail Murray” vs. Buffalo, Arizona would be on a five-game losing streak entering this week. They are 0-5 ATS those L5 games. It’s been a real “fall from grace” for a team that started the year 5-2. The Giants, now 5-7 on the season, are trending in the other direction. They’ve won four in a row with their defense holding all four opponents to 20 points or less. But despite the recent form of these two teams, we’re backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Colt McCoy may have to start again for the G-Men. While that shockingly worked out in Seattle last week, we don’t see that kind of success sustaining itself. If he does come back, Daniel Jones isn’t that great either. The Giants’ offense has only scored 36 points the last two games. Give them credit for that win up in Seattle, but before that it was a really favorable stretch of games. They were off a bye when they faced Cincinnati without Joe Burrow, but won that game by only two points. Arizona is still the better team here and we’ll lay the short number. The Giants’ special teams have given up a punt return and a safety the last two weeks. New York has had success as a dog this season, but is still just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past three seasons. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-13-20 | Vikings v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Good situation this week for Tampa Bay to pick up a win. For starters, they are coming off a bye. Getting their bye so late in the season may prove advantageous for the stretch run. Perhaps they were running on fumes when they lost to the Rams and Chiefs by identical 27-24 scores in their last two games. Maybe it was a case of facing two really good teams. Whatever the reason, we don’t see the Bucs losing three in a row at home. While they’ve struggled against top teams in the league like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, Tampa Bay has done well against everyone else. Minnesota is on a 5-1 surge, but their last four wins have been against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville and most of those games were close. Remember they lost at home to Dallas. The most impressive win, over Green Bay, came after a bye. Tough matchup for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook this week as he faces the league’s top ranked run defense, which is allowing just 74 yards per game. Tom Brady is an incredible 46-19 ATS after a SU loss including 4-0 with the Bucs. The Vikings young secondary is likely to struggle against the Tampa receivers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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12-12-20 | Stanford -2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA |
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12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
Ths is a 9* on KC Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TENNESSEE Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-06-20 | Bengals +11.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-19 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +10.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH STATE Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE AAA |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE All hell has broken loose in Baltimore as the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak began on Monday. All told, 12 players have been affected. The most notable being QB Lamar Jackson. This game has been moved twice, from Thursday to Sunday and then Sunday to Tuesday. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time for the Ravens as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. They led a good Tennessee team 21-10 in the third quarter last week before losing in overtime. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). They struggled to beat Dallas a couple weeks ago. Remember that all this has been just as disruptive to them. Take the points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE The Seahawks and Eagles are very much “birds of a different feather” as the former comes with a 7-3 mark on the season while the latter is 3-6-1. But true to the insanity that is 2020, both could end up being division champs when all is said and done! That said, Seattle is so much better and should easily be able to take advantage of a wounded (and struggling) Philly team tonight. The Eagles just found out they’ll be without Lane Johnson for the rest of the year, which is a major loss. It’s not as if they were playing all that well with their top offensive lineman on the field anyway. This is an offense that struggles to score and Wentz seems to have really regressed. Completion percentage and passer rating are both career lows right now while he leads the league with 18 turnovers. Seattle’s defense, which had been a sore spot for them, has recently improved thanks to the return of Jamal Adams and the arrival of Carlos Dunlap. They just held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 44 points. One group having no problems is the Seattle offense, which averages 31.8 points/game. Not only is Russell Wilson 5-0 all-time vs. Philly, the Seahawks have covered every game. Wilson is 23-12-1 ATS in his career in primetime games. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY The Bears are one of several NFL teams this week really hurting at the QB position. Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered all season who they’ve had under center. Both Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky have really stunk up the joint. Now Foles is hurt so Trubisky is being called back into duty this week. Trubisky has had his own injury issues as well. Really, it’s a minor miracle that Chicago is 5-5 entering this game. They have lost four straight while averaging less than 16 points/game. In case you needed to be reminded, Green Bay does not have any issues at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks, has dominated the Bears throughout his career. He’s 19-5 against them. With the Packers 5-0 ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, expect them to get off to a fast start Sunday night. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
Note: This play was released and written up prior to the announcement on Denver's QB situation. Play still stands. This is a 10* on NO Taysom Hill is 1-0 as a starter after leading the Saints to a 24-9 victory over Atlanta last week. The offense gained 378 total yards, which is right on the team’s season average with Drew Brees at quarterback. Now the Falcons defense is pretty bad. But the Saints defense is REALLY good. The last three games they’ve allowed just 25 points. We don’t see them giving up very many this week against a Denver offense that is averaging just 18.2 points/game at home. The Broncos still have yet to be favored in a game all year. Obviously they’re not going to be favored here, even though they are off a 20-13 upset over Miami last week. But the Saints aren’t the Dolphins. When Denver hosted Kansas City earlier in the year, they lost 43-16. That’s what we’re looking at here. Hill showed us last week he can be winning quarterback in this league as he completed 78% of his passes. But the real strength of the Saints right now is the defense. By the way, lots of injuries on the Denver defense. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals -1 v. Patriots | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -114 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-4 but off a 28-21 loss to Seattle. New England is also off a 7-point loss, 27-20 to Houston, but they are just 4-6. It is looking more and more likely that we are about to have an NFL Playoffs that doesn’t include the Patriots for just the second time since 2003. The sense of urgency for the Cardinals here is going to be greater due to the fact they have a much more realistic path to the playoffs. A loss here would not be good. An early start doesn’t seem to bother the Cards as they are 5-2 ATS in 1 PM ET games since Kliff Kingsbury took over. A key advantage for them this week is they’ve had a couple extra days to prepare as they played on Thursday last week. New England has covered the spread in just two of its previous seven games. Against the Jets was the only time in that stretch where they topped 23 points. Arizona averages 28.7 points/game and had hit 30 in each of the five games before facing Seattle. The Patriots allow 6.2 yards/play (30th) and 8.4 yards per pass play (last). Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will have a field day here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-29-20 | Giants -6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Giants should consider themselves quite fortunate. They play in the NFC East where no team has more than four wins. Now they get to face Cincinnati a week after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals just aren’t going to do much offensively in this game with Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley at QB (Allen expected to start). Cincinnati has scored just 19 points its last two games and didn’t score at all after Burrow left last week. That was against a Washington team that the Giants have beaten twice in 2020. While the G-Men are just 1-7 SU in their other eight games, they are 7-3 ATS overall including 5-0 on the road. They’ve been one of the best teams to bet on this NFL season. Coming off a bye and facing a wounded opponent, we expect them to play their finest game of the season here. You could argue they played their best game two weeks ago when they beat Philadelphia 27-17. More bad news for the Bengals: Not only is Burrow out, their top two running backs are injured as well! Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Miami’s run ended last week with a disappointing loss in Denver. Before suffering the 20-13 loss, they’d won and covered five in a row. While Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to start here (because of a thumb injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly proven himself to be a capable starter in this league. The team is 3-2 this year with Fitzpatrick as the starter and the two losses were to New England and Seattle. No matter who ends up playing QB for the Dolphins this week, we like them to win big. That’s because they are facing the winless Jets. At 0-10, it’s only a matter of time before Adam Gase gets fired. New York is a total dumpster fire right now. Sam Darnold is set to return, but that hardly matters at this point. The Dolphins shut the Jets out 24-0 earlier this year in the last game Fitzpatrick started. While the Jets have stayed within eight points of three of their last four opponents, they won’t do so here. Miami has a really good defense that will keep the Jets under its YTD scoring average of 14.9 points/game. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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11-28-20 | Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA -2 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 9* on UTSA UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARYLAND Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is 8-0 and #2 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve already beaten Clemson, so they are really in the driver’s seat right now. North Carolina is going to be the toughest remaining test before the ACC Championship Game, however we think the Tar Heels are getting too much respect in this Top 25 battle. While UNC can put up a ton of points (they average 43.1 per game), so can Notre Dame (37.6 PPG). The difference is the Tar Heels defense also gives up a ton. They are allowing over 30 points/game and the last time we saw them they gave up 53, not to mention almost 750 total yards, to Wake Forest. The Heels were behind by as much as three touchdowns in that game, which was at home. Considering how the Fighting Irish have put up at least 42 points in four of the last six games, Ian Book and the offense should have a big game Friday. Notre Dame’s defense is #1 in the ACC at stopping the run. North Carolina’s defense has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three different games! Uh oh. Here’s the kicker(s): ND has won its last 10 games as a road favorite (6-3-1 ATS) plus they are 10-0 SU the L10 times they’ve been a favorite (home or away) of 3.5 to 10 points, also going 8-1-1 ATS. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas is the play here as the Lonnghorns face Iowa State in a ranked showdown. Although only 2-4-1 ATS, UT is 5-2 SU with one of those two losses coming to Oklahoma in overtime. Incredibly, three of the ‘Horns’ seven games have gone to OT. They have not played in three weeks due to a scheduled bye (last week) and an unscheduled bye two weeks ago (Kansas game postponed due to COVID). So they should be well rested and prepared for an Iowa State team that’s coming off a 45-0 win over Kansas State last weekend. The size of that victory has obviously influenced bettors' perception of the Cyclones, but before we go giving them too much credit, be aware that Kansas State has devolved into a total mess since losing QB Thompson for the season. They are also a team that’s been severely impacted, in a negative way, by COVID. We really like the fact that this line has “jumped the fence” and that Texas is now a slight home dog. That’s great value for a game where we projected them to be a field goal favorite. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS its last seven chances as a road favorite of three points or less. The Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, never led at Oklahoma State and while they did beat Oklahoma, they trailed almost the entire game. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-26-20 | Texans -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ve got a big game in the NFC Monday night with the 7-3 Bucs hosting the 6-3 Rams. Both teams had impressive wins last week. Tampa Bay pummeled poor Carolina 46-23 and finished with a substantial 544-187 edge in total yardage. Just as impressive was the Rams defense which held Seattle to only 16 points. When handicapping this matchup, it’s important to remember that the Bucs are 7-1 against everybody besides the Saints. That other loss was by a single point at Chicago and they probably should have won that game. The Rams are 4-0 against the horrible NFC East and 2-3 vs.everyone else. As impressive as beating Seattle was, that was a familiar foe at home. The Rams are 4-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road (sense a pattern?). Left tackle Andre Whitworth got hurt last week and is going to miss the last six weeks. That’s a big loss for the Rams. Their offense has scored 24 points or less four of the last five games. Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored 38 or more in four of their last seven. Though 0-3 ATS in primetime this season, this one sets up well for Tampa Bay. The Rams defense forced three turnovers vs. Seattle. Don’t see that happening again. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS CITY This is a big revenge game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Back in Week 5 they lost to the Raiders 40-32. Going by the pointspread (KC was -10 in that game), that’s the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. Chiefs coach Andy Reid clearly hasn’t forgotten, going so far as to point out the fact the Raiders took a “victory lap” (in their team bus) around the stadium following the upset. Though it has won and covered three in a row, Las Vegas is not well positioned for this rematch as 10 of the 11 players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list are from the defensive side of the ball. Mahomes should have a big night as the Raiders are already giving up nearly 28 points/game at home. Reid is 14-7 ATS in his coaching career coming out of a bye week and Mahomes is 11-5 ATS in division games. So it’s a good spot for the favorite that has already covered 22 of the last 32 times they’ve been asked to lay points on the road. The Raiders, despite their 6-3 SU record, have been outgained this season. Over the past 20 seasons, if a double digit division dog wins the first meeting of the season outright, they are just 5-9 ATS the second time around. The Chiefs have won six games by at least nine points so far and their average margin of victory is 11.5 points/game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Like New England-Houston, this Green Bay-Indianapolis line also flipped. The Packers were favored on the look ahead line, but not anymore after they struggled to beat Jacksonville last week while the Colts beat the Titans 34-17. We’ll take advantage of the value we’re now getting with the Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league. Under Matt LaFleur the Pack have gone 5-1 ATS as a regular season road underdog and all five covers were also outright wins. Green Bay is also the first team in NFL history to average more than 30 points through nine games while turning it over five or fewer times. They haven’t failed to cover back to back games all season either. Aaron Rodgers has averaged almost 300 yards passing his last four games indoors and won them all. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans +2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is one of a few games that saw the line “flip” early in the week. The look ahead line had Houston favored by 2.5, but things quickly changed once New England upset Baltimore last Saturday night. Now the Patriots are favored, a role they are quite accustomed to, but this isn’t your normal Bill Belichick team. Remember that they struggled to beat the winless Jets on the road and are just 4-5 SU on the season. They are 0-3 ATS this season against teams that have a losing record. They are also 0-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer, losing all four games outright. That one goes back to last season. Houston hasn’t been very good this season and is just 2-7 ATS. But they are now a really good value compared to what the look ahead line for this game was. DeShaun Watson has not thrown an interception since Week 5. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE We’ve got a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all 6-3. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction right now as they’ve lost back to back games for the first time this season. They are 1-4 ATS their L5 games. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once, in primetime no less (it was a Sunday night game), and comes off a thrilling 32-30 win over Buffalo where they completed a Hail Mary on the final play. They were obviously pretty lucky to win Sunday and truthfully were lucky to beat the Seahawks the first time too. They had to score at the end of regulation just to force OT. Seattle outgained them in that first contest 572-519 and never trailed until the game went final. Considering the Seahawks went off as the favorite at Arizona, they are looking like a really good value in the rematch. We’ll take them to win. Seattle hasn’t lost three in a row since the 2011 season. Arizona has trailed by at least 7 points each of the last three weeks. They were down 14 against Buffalo. It wasn’t too long ago that some considered the Seahawks the best team in the league. We’re not panicking over the recent results. Don’t see them losing again in an obvious revenge spot. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -102 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 124 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -116 | 122 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line) This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON AAA |