11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State -7 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-100 |
143 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Michigan is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year). It’s also a poor 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog and just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against conference opponents. Note that it’s also only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note that Ohio State has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS at home this year is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: Obviously a huge rivalry game, but we simply can’t see the home side taking a mis-step at this point. We look for OHIO STATE to do just enough to come away with the cover at the end of the afternoon. AAA Sports
|
11-25-16 |
Washington -5.5 v. Washington State |
Top |
45-17 |
Win
|
100 |
121 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on Washington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The bottom line: The Cougars are coming off their first conference loss of the season to Colorado and are primed for a letdown. The Huskies are hoping to play for the national title and we’re expecting their No. 1 Pac 12 offense and defense to do just enough today to secure the ATS victory in the tough environment. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports
|
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M +4 |
Top |
54-39 |
Loss |
-105 |
102 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Texas A&M. REASONING: LSU has little to play for as it closes out the season sitting at 6-4, most recently coming off a disappointing 16-10 home loss to Florida this past Saturday. Texas A&M is 8-3 SU and it’s gunning for a better bowl position at this point. The Aggies enter off a 23-10 win over UTSA last week. LSU RB Leonard Fournette played injured last week and it showed as he’d finish with just 40 yards on 12 carries. Derrius Guice had 83 yards on 19 carries to go along with a TD (Guice was stuffed for the winning attempt from one yard out though). The Tigers get the job done on the ground offensively as the passing attack has been a major issue for years, this season it’s averaged just 174 yards per game, ranked 109th in the country. The Aggies lost the services of QB Trevor Knight and backup Jake Hubenak has been decent in relief, posting 222 yards against Mississippit State, 213 yards against Ole Miss and 248 yards against UTSA last weekend. Last Saturday he was 19 of 32 with one TD and no INT’s. The Aggies run game has been the strength of the team though, averaging 220.2 YPG. Note that LSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten games played in the month of November, while Texas A&M is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. We like Hubenak here and think the home side will jump on this rattled Tigers team. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA Sports
|
11-18-16 |
Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 |
Top |
34-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
122 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. REASONING: Memphis is bowl eligible, while Cincinnati desperately needs two more wins to join the party. While an outright win is obviously not out of the question, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points as we think the home side’s overall desperation will take this one down to the wire. The Bearcats come in on a three-game losing streak. Memphis though is backing its way into the postseason as it’s dropped three of its last four, most recently a 49-42 setback to USF last weekend. Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson was 29 of 46 for 331 yards, three TD’s and one pick last week. Cincinnati most recently fell 24-3 to Central Florida and is in danger of a missing a bowl game for the first time in six years. Note though that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 3-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite (also a horrible 1-5 ATS against the conference), while Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses. Desperation breeds motivation, play on the BEARCATS. AAA Sports
|
11-15-16 |
Ohio v. Central Michigan -1 |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Michigan. REASONING: Ohio is heading bowling this year, but still has its sights set on taking the MAC East Division and overall conference crown. The Bobcats most recently edged Buffalo 34-10 back on November 3rd. CMU on the other hand is just 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips will be in a foul mood after dropping three straight, most recently a 37-17 loss to Miami Ohio on November 4th. If we look a little deeper into Ohio’s last win, we find that it was definitely a little “lucky” as it was outgained 413-377 and lost the first down battle 19-18. It also dropped the time of possession battle 31:36 to 28:24. Note that Ohio stands 63rd in the nation in scoring offense at 29.3 PPG. The defense is ranked 35th in allowing 23 points. The Chips are a pass first team, they actually rank 27th in the country with an average of 279.3 YPG. Overall CMU is ranked 64th in scoring offense at 29 PPG. The defense isn’t horrible either, allowing 29.3 PPG, ranked 72nd overall. Note that Ohio is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while CMU is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. We think that despertion leads to motivation for the home side, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports
|
11-11-16 |
Boston College +21.5 v. Florida State |
Top |
7-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
121 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boston College. REASONING: BC still has a shot at a bowl, but will need to win two of its last three games and while an outright upset is almost assuredly out of the question, we think that the visitors can keep this one competitive enough to come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. BC will be especially motivated here after getting blown out at home to Louisville last weekend. FSU finally became bowl eligible last weekend with a 24-20 win at NC State and we think it’s going to have a small mental letdown tonight. A 52-7 loss to the Cardinals sounds horrific, until we remember that FSU was annihilated 63-20 to Louisville as well earlier in the year. Clearly FSU is better on paper and on the field, but we think it’s just a classically bad “spot” for the home side today. Note that BC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while FSU is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven in the same points range and just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite. Grab the points, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports
|
11-10-16 |
Utah v. Arizona State +5.5 |
Top |
49-26 |
Loss |
-108 |
58 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. REASONING: Utah is 7-2 and is still trying to win its division, but at just 5-4 and with losses in three of its last four games, the Arizona State Sun Devils are desperate for one more victory and to become bowl eligible. Both teams come out of their bye, which we think favors the hungry Sun Devils. But primarily from a scheduling stand-point, this has bascially become a “must win” game for ASU. And that’s because it ends the year with two straight incredibly tough road games at Washington and Arizona. For us this pick is entirely “situational.” Also note that Utah is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five following its bye week, while ASU is 4-1 ATS following its bye week. Grab as many points as you can, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports
|
11-04-16 |
Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) |
Top |
17-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
120 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Central Michigan. REASONING: CMU is 5-4 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It’s the wrong place at the wrong time for the Redhawks in our opinion as we expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Central Michigan comes into this one in a foul mood after losing its second straight, this time a 27-24 home loss to Kent State last week. Miami Ohio is primed for a letdown here after its third straight win though, including a shocking 28-15 road win over EMU last weekend. The Chippewas are 59th in the nation in scoring at 30.3 PPG. They’re 73rd in the nation on the defensive side, allowing 28.4 PPG. The RedHawks are 117th in the country in scoring at just 20.9 PPG, while the defense ranks 51st by allowing 25.7. Note that CMU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following a straight up loss, while Miami Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in it last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The situational and motivational factors favor the visitors and so too do the numbers and trends. We’re laying the points, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports
|
11-03-16 |
UCLA +10.5 v. Colorado |
Top |
10-20 |
Win
|
100 |
99 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PAC-12 SIDE OF THE MONTH on UCLA. REASONING: ULCA has had a tough year and losing starting QB Josh Rosen to injury hasn’t helped. We had a play on UCLA as our GAME OF THE YEAR a couple of weeks back and released the selection before the extent of Rosen’s injury was fully known. While we got saddled with a loss because of the poor opening line, almost everyone else would have cashed against the closing one. Colorado is putting together a special season, so far it’s 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS. But with its bowl berth now all sewn up, we’re expecting a bit of a drop off in intensity tonight. And while Bruins’ backup QB Mike Fafaul has been far from perfect (eight TD’s and eight INT’s over 2-plus games), UCLA will be leaving everything on the field tonight and until the end of the season as it desperately tries to win three more games and become bowl eligible. On paper this is a major mismatch, but situationally it sets up perfect for UCLA. Note that UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while Colorado is 0-2 ATS following its bye. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports
|
11-01-16 |
Western Michigan v. Ball State +16 |
Top |
52-20 |
Loss |
-115 |
51 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State. REASONING: This line opened at 16 (that’s the line we have) and it climbed to as high as 18.5. It’s come down a point as of writing, but regardless, we think the hungry home side can do just enough to come away with a solid ATS victory tonight. Both teams come out of their bye week. We think this will work negatively for the 8-0 WMU Broncos, who most recently beat EMU 45-31 on October 22nd. However, we believe the extra week off to prepare for the final four games of the year will greatly benefit the 4-4 Cardinals. Ball State doesn’t have many chances left to become bowl eligible and we’re expecting the team to bring its best effort each and every week. A big upset win over WMU would pave the way to a bowl appearance and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, we do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a competitive game this evening. Defensively these teams are in fact pretty close, with WMU conceding 19.3 and Ball State allowing 25.4. This sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors today. Play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports
|
10-29-16 |
Connecticut v. East Carolina -5 |
Top |
3-41 |
Win
|
100 |
139 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* AAC SIDE OF THE YEAR on East Carolina. Setting the scene: The Huskies are 3-5. The Pirates are 2-5. The Huskies are 1-4 in the East Division of the AAC, while East Carolina is 0-3. Both teams come in off losses, UConn fell 24-16 to Central Florida, while East Carolina lost 31-19 at Cincinnati. The Huskies: UConn had a 13-0 lead with 9:41 in the second quarter last week, but fell apart and could never recover in the second half. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 242 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. UConn has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging only 131.2 YPG. The Huskies have also struggled against the pass, giving up 289.8 YPG. The Pirates: ECU struggled against Cincinnati and fifth-year senior QB Gunner Kiel, who made his season debut as a starter in that one. QB Phillip Nelson had 283 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The run game was strong with 221 yards, while the offense would post 504 overall. ECU ranks ninth in the nation with 513.7 YPG, but it’s allowed 32.4. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road and just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog, while ECU is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 2-1 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. We think the desperate Pirates finally play a bit of defense, while the offense continues to shine and helps the team to pull away down the stretch for the easy ATS cover. Play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports
|
10-23-16 |
Vikings v. Eagles +2.5 |
Top |
10-21 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Eagles. REASONING: Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are better than we thought they’d be this year. The Vikings especially have been impressive considering the injuries to starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and to starting RB Adrian Peterson. QB Sam Bradford has been brilliant so far through four games for the Vikes, he’s yet to throw an INT. Minnesota comes into this one a perfect 5-0, but we think that rest is going to lead to rust for the Vikes, who are coming off their bye-week. Some times a bye week is very beneficial, but other times it can slow down the chemistry of a healthy team and that’s the scenario we see playing out today. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be in a foul mood after last week’s lacklustre 27-20 setback to Washington. Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the league, but Philadelphia is right behind, ranked third overall. Minnesota has been an ATS covering machine over the last calendar year, but we think the conditions are now finally right for a letdown. Grab as many points as you can, play on the EAGLES. AAA Sports
|
10-23-16 |
Bills v. Dolphins +3 |
Top |
25-28 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL SHOCKER on the Miami Dolphins. REASONING: We had a play on Miami in its 30-15 win over the Steelers. At 2-4, the Dolphins chances of even making the playoffs are still extremely slim, but at 1-5, they would have already been looking ahead to next year. Now Miami has something to build off and another upset this week and especially against a division rival would put the Fish back in the conversation at the very least. Buffalo has rattled off four straight victories, but if ever a team was set up for a “trap” or a “letdown,” or being caught “looking ahead,” then this is it! After four straight victories, Buffalo comes to Miami, knowing that it has a huge showdown at New England next week, followed by a game at home against the Seahawks, before then enjoying its bye. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of Miami today to warrant a play of this size and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports
|
10-22-16 |
Purdue +24 v. Nebraska |
Top |
14-27 |
Win
|
100 |
95 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. Setting the scene: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an epic SU victory for the lowly Boilermakers, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive against what we feel will be a slightly disinterested and contented Nebraska side. Purdue: The Boilermakers are 3-3, most recently coming off a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. The team promptly fired head coach Darrell Hazell afterwards. Purdue trailed 35-7 at half and its second half rally would eventually fall short. The Boilermakers were outgained by only a slim margin though, 520-504. Purdue can sling the ball, it’s tied for 19th in the country in passing at 305.5 YPG. Overall it averages 27.5 PPG, while the defense concedes 34.8. QB David Blough will once again be given the green light to operate today, he has 1,756 yards, 12 TD’s and ten picks. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 6-0 after holding on for a 27-22 road win over Indiana last week. Nebraska led by 17-0 after one quarter, but twice had its lead shaved to two points in the second half. The ‘Huskers won the yardage battle 360-333. Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring offense at 35.3 PPG and are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 PPG. QB Tommy Armstrong Jr has ten TD’s and four INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Purdeu is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall, 4-0 ATS in the same time span as road dog of 21.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival, while Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival. We think the shake up at head coach works in our favor today and the razor-focused Boilermakers catch the ‘Huskers a bit off guard. Grab the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports
|
10-16-16 |
Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 |
Top |
15-30 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Miami Dolphins. Setting the scene: At 1-4, the Dolphins have little hope at making the playoffs. At 1-5 though, it would truly then be time to start looking ahead to next season. It’s do-or-die every week for Miami and while we’re going to stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do think that the intensity the home side brings today will prove to be the difference. The Steelers: Pittsburgh beat the Jets on Sunday to move to 4-1. The Steelers have looked unstoppable for the most part, except for their inexplicable 34-3 setback to the Eagles. The Dolphins: Miami lost 30-17 to the Titans last week. Ryan Tannehill and RB Jay Ajayi have got to get things figured out quickly, or heads are going to roll in South Beach. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of 3 1/2 to seven points, while Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. This is a great situational play, as we believe the visitors are going to get caught in a classic “spot” scenario here, with a game against New England next week, followed by their bye-week, all signs point to the Steelers “looking ahead” to that much more important part of their schedule. Combined with the “do-or-die” mentality that the Fish have to bring tonight, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports
|
10-15-16 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Washington State |
Top |
21-27 |
Loss |
-100 |
154 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. Setting the scene: We’ve been holding off writing this analysis as we’ve been waiting on the status of UCLA QB Josh Rosen. We watched the Bruins fall 23-20 to Arizona State this past weekend. Rosen was injured twice in that game, but it did not look very serious. Afterwards, all initial reports indicated that the versatile pivot would be fine, but then the next day his status was downgraded to questionable. Backup Mike Fafaul took all of the snaps in practice this week and a line which opened at +3.5, has since moved to +7.5. The books at least are clearly expecting Fafaul to get the start today. While we’re not thrilled with the big QB change (clearly an unfortunate set of circumstances), this selection was based primarily on the “situation” and some extremely strong and relevant ATS trends to begin with anyways. Whether Rosen gets the start or not, we’re expecting the hungry Bruins to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Reasoning: The PAC 12 is not the conference it once was, as there has been a lot of inconsistent play. UCLA is 3-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS this year, while Washington State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. First off this is a “revenge” game for ULCA, which fell 21-17 in Pasedna last year. The Bruins have had a tough scheulde, which started with an OT loss to Texas A&M. UCLA then beat UNLV and BYU on the road, but then suffered a nine-point setback to Stanford, before beating Arizona by 21 and then falling to ASU this past weekend. Washington State has also had an up and down start, but we think is primed for a big letdown tonight. The Cougars began their season with a loss at home to FCS squad Eastern Washington. Then they lost in Boise to start the year 0-2. Washington State though has responded with three straight victories, including blowout wins over conference foes Oregon and Stanford. Last Saturday the team travelled to Stanford and hammered the 15th ranked Cardinal 42-16. After the string of recent success and off their huge win last weekend, we think these College kids are primed for a letdown this weekend. It’s also not hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to its next two games, both on the road, starting at PAC 12 South leading Arizona State. The bottom line: Note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Washington State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Whether Rosen plays or not, we think the “hungrier” and more focused BRUINS have a legitimate shot at scoring the outright upset today. That said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports
|
10-13-16 |
Broncos v. Chargers +3 |
Top |
13-21 |
Win
|
100 |
81 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers. Setting the scene: It’s a classic strength against strength matchup tonight, as San Diego possesses one of the best offenses in the league, while the Broncos own one of the best defenses. They say “defense wins championships,” but there’s nothing on the line of that magnitude tonight. We think the hungry home side does just enough to pull off the slight upset this evening. The Broncos: Denver comes to town on a short week and off its first loss of the year. It’s a prime situational “letdown” spot if we’ve ever seen one. In last week’s 23-16 loss to the Falcons, it was backup Paxton Lynch under center as Trevor Siemian was given the night off to recoup his non-throwing shoulder. It was a bigger loss than what the final score indicated, as Paxton would gain some production late when the game was already decided. Note that Paxton was sacked six times on Sunday. Siemian will be back directing the show tonight, so far he has six TD’s and three INT’s this season. The Chargers: San Diego could easily be 4-1 right now. Note that it entered Week 5 sitting at 1-3, having led every single game in the final two minutes. Clearly the team has defensive issues, but the unit catches a break in facing this vanilla Broncos offense, which has struggled with its ground game, turning the already one-dimensional offense even more so. But as mentioned above, the Bolts are in fact the AFC’s highest-scoring team with an average of 30.4 PPG. The bottom line: The short week always favors the home side. Not only does Denver have to worry about the four day turnaround, but head coach Gary Kubiak has been dealing with health issues all week after he was taken to hospital by an ambulance on Sunday night. This one has all of the situational factors in place for an outright upset, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on SAN DIEGO. AAA Sports
|
10-09-16 |
Bengals +1 v. Cowboys |
Top |
14-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
162 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR on the Cincinnati Bengals. Setting the scene: No one thought Dallas would be 3-1 after the first four games when starting QB Tony Romo was injured in the preseason. So far Cincinnati has struggled with consistency, but we think the 2-2 Bengals will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Cincinnati: They come to town off a confidence building 22-7 home win over the Dolphins. LB Vontaze Burfict returned from suspension and made an immediate impact. Expect the unit to get a ton of pressure on Cowboys’ rookie QB Dak Prescott. Note that over their last two games the Bengals have giving up a total of just 114 rushing yards. Dallas: Prescott was 23 of 32 for 245 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in the win over the toothless 49ers last week. The Cowboys though are still without the services of Romo, No. 1 WR Dez Bryant, starting LT Tyron Smith and their top CB Orlando Scandrick. The bottom line: Note that the Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 following a SU victory, while the Cowboys are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 in front of the home town crowd. We think the injuries finally catch up to the Cowboys this weekend and that Cincinnati’s defense continues to shine. Play on the BENGALS. AAA Sports
|
10-08-16 |
Northern Illinois +19 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
30-45 |
Win
|
100 |
145 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* MAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois. Setting the scene: We think the 5-0 Broncos come in a bit complacent today, leaving the back door open just enough for the hungry 1-4 Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Northern Illinois: The Huskies come into this one with a bit of confidence after picking up their first win of the year, 31-24 against Ball State last weekend. The offense really started to click and we’re expecting that momentum to be carried over tonight, note that the unit posted a whopping 653 total yards. Keep your eyes on WR Kenny Golladay, who had 13 catches for 184 yards and two TD’s. Western Michigan: The Broncos rolled over Central Michigan last week 49-10. The defense posted eight sacks and two turnovers, icnluding an INT pick-six. So far the offense averages 459.6 YPG, including 247 on the ground. The bottom line: With a date against 0-5 Akron next weekend, WMU has hit a soft part of its schedule and we think the home side comes in disinterested and takes its foot off the gas. Grab as many points as you can, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports
|
10-08-16 |
Indiana +32 v. Ohio State |
Top |
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
143 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Indiana. Setting the scene: Ohio State is a special team and one which barring epic disaster, will most assuredly be competing for the national title once it’s all said and done. The Hoosiers are a pretty good team too though and we think they’ll be able to keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch with the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Indiana: It’s 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State 24-21 at home last week. QB Richard Lagow was 16 of 26 for 276 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Devine Redding has posted over 100 yards in three of four games played. So far the Hoosiers average 29 PPG, ranked 67th in the country. The defense though is likely even better, as it’s conceding just 21.8 PPG. Ohio State: It’s 4-0 SU/ATS. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week. QB JT Barrett was 21 of 29 for 238 yards and four TD’s and one INT. RB Mike Weber had 144 yards rushing. The offense averages 57 PPG, ranked third overall, while the defense has been conceding an average of just 9.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the nation. The bottom line: The Hoosiers play with revenge today after falling 34-27 to the Buckeyes at home last year. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but 28 to 32 points better?! We don’t think so, as Indiana is no slouch, with offense and defense which both rank in the top 75. With back-to-back road games upcoming at Wisconsin and Penn State, we think the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on INDIANA. AAA Sports
|
10-05-16 |
Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7 |
Top |
26-27 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is the defending Sun Belt Champ, but it lost it’s QB in the offseason and has opened the 2016/17 campaign by going 0-4, including a humiliating loss to FCS Central Arkansas last time out. Georgia Southern comes out of a bye-week after getting smashed 59-31 on the road to Western Michigan. This is a great situational play though (which we’ll detail shortly) and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side is going to keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Eagles: Clearly they’re the better team today. Despite the lop-sided loss to WMU, Georgia Southern is still only giving up 305.8 YPG and 228 yards through the air. Four turnovers proved costly in the loss to the Broncos. QB Favian Upshaw was just 4 of 6, but did have two TD’s as well as one INT. Arkansas State will no doubt have its hands full trying to stop Georgia Southern’s ground attack, a unit which is so far averaging 317.8 YPG. Red Wolves: Coming off a 9-4 season, there were high expectations for Arkansas State this year. Clearly things haven’t gone the way that coach Blake Anderson envisioned, but despite the loss to Central Arkansas, there were a few silver linings to be taken from the setback, as QB Justice Hansen would go on to finish with 424 yards and three TD’s. Blake Mack also had eigth catches for 142 yards. Turnovers played a big part in the setback as well, as ASU had four, while unable to force any the other way. The bottom line: We think Georgia Southern gets caught “looking ahead” to its big matchup at Georgia Tech next week. While a non-conference game, clearly moving up to play in the Power 5 conference atmosphere is something these guys would have had circled on the calendar before the season started. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RED WOLVES. AAA Sports
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10-03-16 |
Giants +4 v. Vikings |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-101 |
153 h 27 m |
Show
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This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. Setting the scene: Minnesota is 3-0 because of its tough defensive play. The offensive unit has been horrible though. While far from perfect, the Giants are much more balanced, with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 3rd. We think the skill players and overall depth of the visitors will prove to be too much for the over-achieving Vikings to handle tonight and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Giants: New York had a mental lapse in last week’s 29-27 loss to the Redskins as Eli Manning was picked off three times. The offense would go on to finish with 28 first downs and 457 total yards (120 rushing). Manning was solid (other than the three INT’s), finishing with 350 yards on 25 of 38. WR Odell Beckham Jr. had 7 catches for 121 yards. So far the Giants average sixth in the NFL with 396.7 yards per game and 99 YPG on the ground. The defense isn’t far behind, allowing just 339.7 YPG, good for tenth in the league. The Vikes: We think that Minnesota suffers a classic letdown tonight, especially after its 22-10 road win in Carolina last week. So far the defense has been great, allowing just 295 yards per game, ranked 6th in the league. The offense though has been terrible. Last week it had just 13 first downs and 211 total yards. Sam Bradford was an unimpressive 17 of 28 for 171 yards and a TD. Minnesota managed just 45 yards on the ground off 16 carries. With the injury to Adrian Peterson, it’s not surprising to learn that the Vikes rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (note that they’re also 28th in passing yards per game at 265.3). The bottom line: The Giants play with revenge tonight after getting thumped 49-17 in Minnesota last season. Ultimately we believe that the Vikes’ “luck” runs out this evening as we’re expecting the veteran Manning to at the very least, keep his team in this one down the stretch. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW YORK (and consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well!). AAA Sports
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10-01-16 |
Louisville v. Clemson +2 |
Top |
36-42 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 44 m |
Show
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This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson. Setting the scene: It’s a battle of ACC heavyweights, as 4-0 Louisville takes on 4-0 Clemson on Saturday night. This line opened with the Tigers as 3.5 point favorites, but as of writing, Clemson is now the dog, getting a couple of points. So far Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable this year, but we think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue and against this top notch defense. Louisville: Jackson would finish with 417 yards and five passing TD’s, to go along with two more rushing scores in his team’s 59-28 win over Marshall last week. Jackson so far has 12 rushing TD’s, which is No. 1 in the country. The Clemson rush defense though is the most stout he’ll have faced yet this season. RB Brandon Radcliff is another dangerous weapon, to go along with WR James Quick, who has 360 receiving yards thus far. Their offense is No. 1, but the defense is ranked in the middle of the pack, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 47th in the nation. Clemson: The Tigers dismantled Georgia Tech last weekend, dominating on both sides of the ball in the 26-8 win. QB DeShaun Watson continues to slowly get better as the season has worn on, he was 32 of 48 for 304 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Wayne Gallman has yet to find his stride, rushing for 100 yards just once. Note though that offense averages 33.5 PPG, 57th overall in the country. Defensively though Clemson ranks among the best, last week it held the Yellow Jackets up-tempo attack to just 29 yards in the air and only 95 yards on the ground. Over the first four games the unit has given up an average of just 11 PPG. The bottom line: This clearly won’t be a cake walk, while it’s true that Jackson has yet to face a defense as good as Clemson’s, it’s also true that the Tigers have yet to face an offense as dynamic as this one. Note though that Louisville has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors in the past, going just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-5 ATS in its last eight in weeks 5 through 9. And note that this is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 10-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records. They say defense wins championships, and while nothing but a perfect record after five weeks is on the line in this one, we still feel that adage applies in this big conference matchup. Play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports
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09-29-16 |
Connecticut v. Houston -27.5 |
Top |
14-42 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 4 m |
Show
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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Houston. Setting the scene: It’s time for some revenge tonight as UConn managed a 20-17 win at home over Houston last year. The Huskies are 2-2 SU, while the Cougars are 4-0. Connecticut lost 31-24 at home to Syracuse last week, while Houston smashed Texas State 64-3. The Huskies: UConn failed to convert on a fourth down on the Orange two-yard line with just seconds left to play, spoiling the come from behind victory. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 264 yards with one TD and one INT. Shirreffs has struggled to open the year, with just two TD’s to go along with two INT’s. The Huskies have one great receiver in Noel Tomas, who had 14 catches for 111 yards last week, but beyond him, they’re pretty thin on the offensive side of the ball. Note that the unit is ranked 109th in the country at 21.2 PPG. The defense has done a better job, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 46th. The Cougars: QB Greg Ward Jr. was 20 of 26 against Texas State for 289 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. Ward Jr. didn’t play in Week 2 against FCS Lamar, but over the three games that he has been involved in, he’s thrown for 936 yards with five TD’s and two INT’s. The run game was also dominant with 243 total team yards last week, led by Duke Catalon with 70. So far the offense has averaged 44.8 PPG. The defense could arguably be even better, as it’s given up an average of 10.5 PPG thus far. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, while Houston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. We simply can’t see the Huskies matching pace with the Cougars high-powered offense. So far Shirreffs has been terrible and he’s about to go up against the best defense he’s seen all year. We like HOUSTON to put the foot on the gas from start to finish, lay the points. AAA Sports
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09-25-16 |
Bears v. Cowboys -7 |
Top |
17-31 |
Win
|
100 |
121 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Setting the scene: The 0-2 Bears will be desperate today as they try to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole, but Dallas can smell the blood in the water. We’re expecting the home side to win all three phases of this contest and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Chicago: A short week isn’t going to help the Bears, who fell at home to Philadelphia 29-14 on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler was just 12 of 17 for 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week, and then left in the second half with a thumb injury. Cutler will be a game time decision. Dallas: Back-to-back divisional games are out of the way and the Cowboys could easily been sitting at 2-0 right now, but a one-point loss to the Giants in Week 1 has the team batting .500. Regardless, Dak Prescott has been good under center and the run game, the defense and special teams have all been solid. The bottom line: The Bears have major issues at the most important position. Prescott has yet to throw a TD, but he also hasn’t thrown an INT. But the stage is now set for Prescott as we think Chicago is ripe for the picking (note that the Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a loss of more than 14 points). Lay the points, play on DALLAS. AAA Sports
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09-25-16 |
Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles |
Top |
3-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
117 h 32 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Setting the scene: Pittsburgh being at 2-0 SU/ATS to open the season comes as little surprise, but Philadelphia with the identical record definitely is. The Steelers rolled over Washington 38-16 in Week 1 and then pulled away for a 24-16 victory over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Eagles routed the Browns 29-10 in Week 1 and then cruised to a 29-14 win over the Bears on Monday night. The Steelers: Both sides of the ball have looked great. The defense has held two dangerous opponents to a combined 32 points. Not perfect, but 16 PPG average is obviously very good. Especially when the offense puts up the kind of numbers that it has. Note that the defense held the Bengals to just 34 rushing yards on the first 16 carries, while QB Andy Dalton was just 31 of 54. Dynamic WR AJ Green was held to just two catches for 38 yards. The Eagles: Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic over the first two games and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling. Wentz has so far gone 43 of 71 for 468 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s. Wentz has been carrying the load offensively, as the run game has stalled out of the gates, the unit averaging fewer than four yards per carry. The bottom line: Wentz faces his toughest test to date. How is he going to perform if Big Ben puts some points on the board and he’s forced to play from behind? With the run game struggling, we think Wentz is going to be overwhelmed this afternoon (note that the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games following a Monday night appearance the week before). We think that Wentz and the home side are getting too much respect and will therefore back the red hot STEELERS to keep things rolling in Week 3. AAA Sports
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09-22-16 |
Texans -1.5 v. Patriots |
Top |
0-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
97 h 32 m |
Show
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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Houston Texans. Setting the scene: Both teams are 2-0 SU/ATS and something has to give. If you asked Bill Belichick if he’d take a 2-2 record after the first four games of the season, we think he’d likely have jumped on it. The Pats won last week, but Jimmy Garoppolo injured his throwing shoulder. New England was already without the services of star TE Rob Gronkowski, who along with Garoppolo, is a game-time decision this evening. While we don’t have a ton of faith in turn-over prone Brock Osweiler, there’s no question in our minds that this is an opportunity that highly favors the Texans, a deep offensive team, backed by a superb defensive unit. New England: If Garoppolo does play, clearly he won’t be 100%. If Gronk does play, he also clearly won’t be in “game shape” right out of the gate. How effective can third string QB Jacoby Brissett be? Whoever gets the start, New England will clearly be looking to establish itself on the ground, LaGarrette Blount had 123 yards off 29 carries last week. The Patriots will also be hoping that their defense can once again answer the call, an above average unit, which has been a strength of the team early. Houston: Osweiler was 19 of 33 with one TD, but he also had two INT’s in last week’s 19-12 win over the Chiefs. WR DeAndre Hopkins is back and already dominating this season, he had seven catches for 113 yards and a TD last week. RB Lamar Miller was a force on the ground as well, rushing for 83 yards last Sunday, after going for 106 in Week 1. The Texans looked deadly defensively, as JJ Watt continues to make his comeback, last week he had 1.5 sacks and five tackles. So far the defense has five forced turnovers through the first two weeks. The bottom line: Belichick is a genius and is better than any coach in all of sports history in being able to get the most out of the least, but we think this is a hole too deep for even “The Hoodie” to get out of tonight. The short week favors the healthier Texans. New England has a game against division rival Buffalo next week, a much more important contest. We think that Belichick is already looking ahead to that one, making this a fantastic situational investment. Play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports
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09-17-16 |
South Florida v. Syracuse +12.5 |
Top |
45-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
142 h 20 m |
Show
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This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. Setting the scene: While we’ll stop short of calling for an outright upset, we do definitely feel this one sets up fantastic for the undervalued home side, so in the end we’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. USF: The Bulls are firing on all cylinders, they’re coming off back to back blowout SU/ATS victories, including in last week’s 48-17 win over NIU last weekend. But with a game at home against Florida State next Saturday, we think the visitors are going to have a predictable letdown this afternoon, unable to help themselves in “looking ahead” to that monstrous matchup. Syracuse: The Orange are 1-1 to start their season opening three-game home stand. The team will then embark on three straight on the road, so a victory today would clearly go a long way in perhaps shaping the rest of the year. The bottom line: We base our selections off many different criteria. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we’ll completely dissect a contest from top to bottom. We think this is a great “situational” play though. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports
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09-17-16 |
Georgia State +30 v. Wisconsin |
Top |
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
139 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State. Setting the scene: When the Sunday NFL games are going off, we’re already looking ahead to the following week’s College Football contests. We often jump on lines early and sometimes that works for us and other times that works against us. The latter is the case here, as we got Georgia State at +30 and that line has since gone up considerably, even +35.5 in some places. Regardless, we still love this selection as we feel that Wisconsin gets caught in a classic “trap” scenario this afternoon. Georgia State: Has nothing to lose here after a double-digit home loss to Ball State and a 48-14 setback on the road to Air Force. Note that Georgia State welcomes back 16 starters from last year. The Panthers though are not a good team and we won’t try to convince you that they are. However, as stated off the top we think this is a great spot for the visitor to sneak in through the back door down the stretch against a complacent home side that has bigger things on its mind. Wisconsin: A shocking 16-14 win over LSU in Week 1 as a 12.5 point underdog was followed up with a 54-10 beatdown victory over Akron as a 21.5 point favorite last Saturday. Now the Badgers have to play lowly Georgia State, before back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan. The bottom line: Note that Georgia State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 31 points or more. All signs point to a “trap,” so grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports
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09-10-16 |
California +8 v. San Diego State |
Top |
40-45 |
Win
|
100 |
128 h 59 m |
Show
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This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Cal. Setting the scene: Cal trounced Hawaii in Australia in the season opener and has now returned home for a much stiffer test this evening. SDSU has won six straight at home and is 15-2 its last 17 at Qualcomm Stadium. We think that California has the athletes to keep this one close and while we would not be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to the points as the savvy move in this matchup. Cal: The Bears are going to have their hands full with Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has 4,370 career rushing yards and who has 2,057 yards and 21 TD’s in his last 15 at home. But if ever there was an offense that could match pace with the high-powered Aztecs, it’s California, who has averaged 630.2 yards of total offense and 46.0 points per game in its last five dating to last season. QB Davis Webb had 441 yards and four TD’s on 38 of 54 passing last week. SDSU: This team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball. Beyond Pumphrey, the Aztecs also have standout sophomore QB Christian Chapman, who had 283 yards and two TD’s against the Wildcats last week. The defense has held 12 straight opponents to 400 yards or less, but clearly the home side faces a very stiff test today. The bottom line: These teams are in fact very similar, as SDSU ranked second among FBS teams both in turnovers gained (34) and INT’s (23) last season. But not to be outdone, note that Cal finished tied for 11th in the FBS in fumbles recovered (12) and tied for 13th in total turnovers gained (23). Ultimately we think that Webb gives his team a punchers chance at an upset today. Play on the GOLDEN BEARS. AAA Sports
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09-10-16 |
Nevada v. Notre Dame -26 |
Top |
10-39 |
Win
|
100 |
121 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Setting the scene: It’s the home opener for the Fighting Irish, who return home in a foul mood after falling 50-47 to Texas in overtime last weekend. The Wolfpack come in contented after taking care of Cal Poly in an unimpressive 30-27 effort in Week 1. In our opinion, all signs point to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Wolf Pack: Nevada won, but it didn’t look good last week against lowly Cal Poly. QB Tyler Stewart was a bright spot though, finishing 17 of 23 for 189 yards and two touchdowns. RB James Butler ran for 123 yards off 21 carries. Nevada is solid offensively, but has more questions than answers on the defensive side of the ball. Fighting Irish: QB DeShone Kizer was hot early on and head coach Brian Kelly would stick with him. Kizer would finish 15 of 24 for 215 yards and five touchdowns, also adding 77 on the ground. Kizer will get the start here and he has a ton of different weapons to utilize, including Torii Hunter Jr, who had four catches for 37 yards and one touchdown last week. Notre Dame lost a bunch of starters from last years smothering defensive unit and that was clearly evident in last week’s setback. However, we’re expecting Kelly to have the unit fired up and razor focused this afternoon. The bottom line: We base our picks off many different factors, but for this one we’re keeping it simple. We’re not going to read too much into last week’s setback and believe the Fighting Irish defense is much better than what we witnessed. The Longhorns caught some early momentum and Notre Dame was never able to catch its breath. With the offense leading the charge again this week, we’re looking for the home side defense to be the difference maker today. Lay the points on NOTRE DAME. AAA Sports
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09-09-16 |
Louisville v. Syracuse +14.5 |
Top |
62-28 |
Loss |
-106 |
105 h 55 m |
Show
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This is a 10* SCORPION on Syracuse. Setting the scene: Both teams come off victories, as Louisville rolled to an impressive 70-14 victory over light-weight Charlotte last week, while Syracuse handled Colgate 33-7. When these team’s played last year, Louisville pulled away for the 41-17 victory. The Orange are going to be competitive in this spot in our opinion though and they’re going to catch a Cardinals team “looking ahead” to its important matchup against high-powered Florida State next week. Louisville: Here’s a great spot to take advantage of. We find it almost impossible not to see the Cardinals looking ahead to their game against FSU next weekend, a team they lost 41-21 to last season. Syracuse: The Orange have the benefit of playing three straight at home to open the year. Next weekend they play USF. Syracuse has its sights set on a bowl game this season after a disastrous 2015/16 campaign. 16 players return, so new coach Dino Babers has a lot to work with this season. The bottom line: Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was outstanding in the win over the 49ers, but the step up in competition is significant in league play today. We think the Orange can hang with Louisville offensively and make this one a little more interesting than what Vegas believes. Also note that Louisville is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a fav in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Syracuse is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can on the ORANGE. AAA Sports
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09-05-16 |
Ole Miss +5 v. Florida State |
Top |
34-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
34 h 16 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ole Miss. Setting the scene: Both teams are ranked and each are coming off 10-3 seasons. We think this one is going to be war right down until the final whistle, a contest which could very likely be decided by whichever team has the ball in its possession in the final moments. In this expected competitive affair, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Mississippi: The Rebels catch a break as this is in fact a neutral site game, being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss put up an average of 334.7 YPG through the air last year and also racked up an additional 183.1 YPG on the ground. The offense is led by QB Chad Kelly, who notched 4042 passing yards and a 31:13 TD:INT ratio. The unit does have a couple of holes to fill because of players leaving to go to the NFL, but Markell Pack, DaMarkus Lodge and Damore’ea Stringfellow are set to the fill the void at the WR position. Defensively the team was pretty good, allowing 258.8 through the air and a much better 127.1 YPG on the ground. The run defense is going to have to be sharp today in facing one of the top RB’s in the nation. Florida State: FSU averaged 255.8 YPG passing last year and 168.2 YPG on the round. Heisman trophy candidate Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon heavily in this game and throughout the season. And that’s because the Seminoles will be starting a freshman under center, Deondre Francois is expected to be among the best in the conference by the end of the season, but he’s being thrown directly into the fire in having to face one of the best defensive units in the SEC in his first game. The bottom line: Note that the Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in the same position. We think Ole Miss can win the battle in the trenches and at the point of attack, putting the pressure on Francois to step up. Kelly is tested and proven and he’ll be the difference maker today. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, as stated off the top, we’re going to grab as many points as we can in this one. Play on OLE MISS. AAA Sports
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09-03-16 |
Clemson -7 v. Auburn |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-116 |
74 h 4 m |
Show
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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Clemson. Setting the scene: Clemson played in the College Football Championship Game last season and will be looking for a repeat performance this year as well. Auburn is expected to be much more competitive after finishing 7-6 last season, but still clearly has miles to go before being able to hang with the best in the nation. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we expect Clemson to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Clemson: Quarterback DeShaun Watson will be fired up and looking to make a statement to open the season, his only loss of the year came against Alabama in the Nat. Champ game. Watson completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 4,104 yards, 35 TDs and 13 INT’s last year. He was also the team’s second leading rusher with 1,105 yards on the ground and another 12 major scores. Leading rusher Wayne Gallman is also back and he totaled 1,527 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. Auburn: It finished dead last in the SEC West. It also finished ranked 85th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense last season. The bottom line: Auburn’s secondary should be much improved this year, but the unit is young and likely faces its stiffest test of the entire season right out of the gate. Too much Gallman and too much Watson in this one, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports
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02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +4.5 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
320 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos.
Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that's the approach we're taking in Super Bowl 50. This top rated 10* GAME OF THE MONTH selection is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors.
Experience: Cam Newton has experience playing Football, he's been doing it his entire life at the highest level possible. From high school, to College and now as one of the elite in the NFL, there's very little at this point that the Panthers' pivot hasn't experienced in his "Football" career. However, there is one thing that he has yet to experience and that's the weight of expectations in playing in the Super Bowl. Newton has risen to every occasion to this point, but nothing can prepare him for the media blitz the next two weeks and all of the hype surrounding this game. Peyton Manning on the other hand has been here and done that, one Super Bowl victory, one Super Bowl loss. As gifted as Newton is physically, we're giving Manning the big mental edge in this matchup. This alone would be reason enough for us to make this selection, but there is one other key factor working in our favor as well. ADVANTAGE Manning.
Defense: They say defense wins championships. Both teams have excellent defenses, but we think the Broncos' unit is something special and believe it will ultimately prove to be the difference maker in Super Bowl 50. After jumping out to a 31-0 lead over the Seahawks in the divisional round, Carolina had to hold on for dear life in the second to pull off the 31-24 victory. Carolina of course looked a lot better against Carson Palmer and the Cards in the conference championship, but we think it'll once again have its hands full with Manning and company. Manning doesn't scramble like Russell Wilson, but they are both very much alike when moving the ball in no the huddle, with plenty of short crossing passes, combined with a steady dose of hard running. While they were able to get to Palmer, who is always looking to air it out down-field at almost every opportunity, the Panthers' defense has looked pretty ordinary vs. offensive units like the Seahawks and Broncos. Denver on the other hand has a defensive unit which can adapt to any style, the Broncos just shut down Tom Brady and the high flying Patriots and suffice it to say, we're expecting a similar type of smothering performance in this one as well. ADVANTAGE Broncos.
The bottom line: And that's it. Manning having more experience in these situations, combined with what we feel to be a better overall defensive unit are the reasons why we're taking the BRONCOS to win Super Bowl 50.
AAA Sports
|
01-24-16 |
Patriots -3.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
18-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
163 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Quarterbacks: We love both of these veteran and proven pivots, but one is playing at the very top of his game, while the other can barely stand on his own two feet. Tom Brady threw 36 TD's to just seven INT's this season behind an offensive unit which was patched together for most of the year. That Patriots unit though is now almost back to 100% health. Peyton Manning had a tough season and missed a large chunk of it due to an injury; Manning looked particularly feeble vs. a wounded Steelers team in the divisional round, throwing for just 222 yards.
Offense vs. defense: Manning's shortcomings in the pocket were largely masked by the league's top defensive units and while the team obviously benefits from playing in front of the home town crowd, this strength is neutralized by the visitors truly dynamic offense, led by Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and WT Julian Edelman.
Revenge: The Pats lost to the Broncos in Week 12, despite Brady tossing three TD's and with Edelman watching from the sideline with injury.
The bottom line: Brady and the Patriots are just too experienced to be overwhelmed by this situation. In the loss earlier in the season, the Broncos were able to run the ball, but we look for the visiting side to come out much more prepared today and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, we do indeed look for NEW ENGLAND to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover.
AAA Sports
|
01-17-16 |
Steelers v. Broncos -6 |
Top |
16-23 |
Win
|
100 |
174 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Rested and healthy: No need to overanalyze this one, while the health of starting QB Peyton Manning may be a bit in question, there's no doubt that both he and his team come into this one well rested and prepared after the crucial bye-week in the Wildcard round. Pittsburgh barely made it past the Bengals last week and the win cost them No. 1 receiver Antonio Brown because of a concussion. QB Ben Roethlisberger also sustained a shoulder injury.
Revenge factor: Pittsburgh just beat the Broncos 34-27 less than a month ago, there's no question that the home side will be looking to avenge that setback.
Home field advantage and superior defense: The Broncos finished amongst the league leaders in most statistical defensive categories and they'll have a major advantage of playing at home in these blustery conditions.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive victories and 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win over a division rival, while Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest.
The bottom line: The stage is set for Manning to return to form and take advantage of this banged up Steelers team, we're expecting perhaps the biggest lop-sided rout of the entire postseason to date as we simply can't see the wounded visitors matching pace down the stretch. Play on the BRONCOS.
AAA Sports
|
01-09-16 |
Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 |
Top |
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
127 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
AJ McCarron: Obviously the QB has a big opportunity to finally break the Bengals playoff curse and since Andy Dalton went down, he has in fact been pretty sharp, completing 76 of 115 passes for 832 yards with six TD's, two INT's and a 97.4 passer rating.
DeAngelo Williams: The RB is out for the Steelers, which is massive to an offense which depends so strongly on the run to open up the passing game. The Bengals are tough against the pass AND the run, this turns the Steelers offense extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. Note that Williams had a major impact vs. the Bengals this year, rushing for 201 total yards and two scores in the two games the team's split.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.
The bottom line: We can't understate how important we feel that home field advantage will be today and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports
|
01-09-16 |
Chiefs -3 v. Texans |
Top |
30-0 |
Win
|
100 |
124 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: Just like in our play on the OVER in this same contest, these two are a big reason behind our reasoning for this play as well. The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
ATS statistics: Note that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival and 5-3 ATS on the road, while Houston is just 2-3 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: Hats off to Houston for turning its season around under such trying circumstances, but there's no question that it benefitted greatly from playing in the weak division. KC made early season adjustments and comes into the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. And certainly we're giving the nod to Smith over Brian Hoyer. We look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Vikings +3.5 v. Packers |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
129 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Adrian Peterson: the veteran back for the Vikings has been running roughshod over the league once again this year and that's not good news at all for Packers' backers today as Green Bay ranked 21st in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game.
- Dominant pass defense: the home side will clearly be leaning on QB Aaron Rodgers and his arm, but that strategy plays directly into the Vikings strength, who rank third in that regard for most of the year.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on the road and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: We think the combination of the Vikings superior defense and run will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest and while we clearly wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on MINNESOTA.
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Bucs +11 v. Panthers |
Top |
10-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
125 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Feeling the pressure: Carolina looked horrible in its loss to Atlanta last week, dropping the team to 14-1 and making this a must-win as far as securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The pressure is clearly on the home side, while Tampa Bay will have nothing to lose and would love nothing more than to play spoiler today.
- Redemption: Tampa has a shot at revenge today as well after losing an ugly game to the Panthers in Week 4.
- Motivation: Both teams are motivated, Tampa sits at 6-9 so a high playoff spot is not on the line; the Bucs will be just as hungry for a win today after dropping three straight and four of its last five.
- Doug Martin: The Bucs are 5-1 when their dynamic back has 20 or more carries and he's already proven that he can run against the Panthers, he's just one of two players to rush for more than 100 yards against Carolina all year.
- Deceptively good defense: Tampa would allow Carolina to score 37 points in Week 4, but the Bucs did manage to limit the Panthers offense to just 244 total yards, while also holding Cam Newton to his lowest passing total of the season.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Tampa is 4-3 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is 0-2 ATS its last two off a loss vs. a division rival.
The bottom line: While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think there are enough significant motivational, situational and ATS statistics working in the visitors favor to warrant pulling the trigger on this one; play on the BUCCANEERS.
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Jets v. Bills +3.5 |
Top |
17-22 |
Win
|
100 |
122 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: While his team won't be making the postseason and the entire campaign has to be viewed as a failure, Rex Ryan still has one last shot to cement a solid victory in front of the home town crowd, while also dealing a crippling blow to his old team at the same time. Buffalo will also be eager to stick it to former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- Letdown Spot: As crazy as it sounds with a playoff berth on the line, we feel this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the surging Jets, who have been lucky though to win five in a row: note that New York is just 1-2 ATS already this year off a divisional contest. Also just 1-2 ATS on the road this year.
Strong and relevant ATS stats for Buffalo: Despite some injuries on both sides of the ball, the Bills have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 4-3 ATS at home this year, 3-1 vs. the division and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: We think the wheels finally fall off the bus for New York, while Buffalo seizes the moment to play spoiler and take out its frustrations after another disappointing season. Play on the BILLS.
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Saints v. Falcons -4 |
Top |
20-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
122 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: Who is the more motivated team today? Neither will be playing in the postseason. We think the Saints will have a letdown here after beating the Jaguars 38-27 last week though. Conversely, the Falcons will be eager to post a victory for the home town crowd and to avenge a 31-21 loss to New Orleans at the Superdome earlier in the season.
- Injury: Mark Ingram was a huge part of the Saints success in the early victory, but the power back will be sitting this one out with injury.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs point to this one being a blowout for the home side, as note that New Orleans is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 on the road and is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. While note that Atlanta has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: This one opened at -2 and has since gone closer to -5.5 (we have -4), but regardless, the situational/motivational edges clearly favor the home side in our opinion, lay the points with confidence on the FALCONS!
AAA Sports
|
01-03-16 |
Steelers v. Browns +10 |
Top |
28-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
122 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Pressure: The Steelers choked last weekend in falling to lowly Baltimore and even if they win this game, they may still not make the playoffs now, as they'll need the Jets to lose in Buffalo today as well.
- Relish The Spoiler Role: While the Browns have nothing to play for today and a loss would actually help them as far as the draft is concerned, we still think Cleveland's backups come to play today; note that even though Big Ben torched the Browns through the air earlier in the year, Cleveland's run defense was stout in holding DeAngelo Williams to 54 yards on 17 carries. Cleveland's own run game has actually been impressive down the stretch as well, as Isaiah Crowell has 56 carries and 318 yards in that span (may come as a surprise to learn that Cleveland is the 19th ranked run team in the NFL and 15th in YPC).
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs do indeed point to a Steelers letdown here, as note that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a divisional contest, while Cleveland is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss vs. a divisional opponent.
The bottom line: A mountain of pressure and off-field distractions for the visitors leaves the back door open just enough for the home team to sneak through; play on CLEVELAND.
AAA Sports
|
01-02-16 |
TCU v. Oregon -7 |
Top |
47-41 |
Loss |
-102 |
33 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oregon.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- TCU will have to play this one without the services of QB Trevone Boykin and star WR Josh Doctson. Boykin was suspended after getting arrested last week, while Doctson has a wrist injury. Suffice it to say, we find it next to impossible for TCU to replace these two key pieces, especially Boykin, who is the backbone of the offense and the leader of the team.
- Also note though that TCU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three games played on a neutral field, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS its last five in the same position.
The Bottom Line: No need to overanalyze this one, the loss of Doctson and Boykin will prove to be too much for TCU to overcome, look for OREGON to take full advantage and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports
|
01-01-16 |
Iowa v. Stanford -6 |
Top |
16-45 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- The favorite is 6-2 SU in the last eight Rose Bowls
- Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. the Pac-12
- Cardinal RB Christian McCaffrey has a FBS record 3,496 all purpose yards; note that Stanford is one of just 13 teams in the nation that averages more than nine yards per pass attempt as well.
- Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.
The Bottom Line: We like the experience on Stanford and think rest leads to rust for the Hawkyes.
Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports
|
01-01-16 |
Notre Dame v. Ohio State -6.5 |
Top |
28-44 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Note that Ohio State Coach Urban Meyer is an amazing 42-3 with more then a week to prepare for an opponent and is 9-2 in bowl games, including last season's victory over Alabama and Oregon to take the first College Football Playoff title.
- Note that Ohio State junior Ezekiel Elliot has already said he's going to the NFL early, so here is his final chance to prove himself. He'll also be especially motivated after getting busted driving the other day without a licence.
- Ohio State's defense is awesome, it's second nationally in scoring defense in giving up just 14 points per game and over the last six games that's gone down to an average of just 10.7, which is lowest in the country over that span.
- Notre Dame has significant injuries, including to its starting QB Malike Zaire and RB Tarean Folston.
- The Irish are ranked No. 99 nationally in turnover margin with just 13 takeaways and 18 turnovers.
The Bottom Line: We think that Ohio State's 42-13 victory over Michigan a week after its chances of defending its national title were ended proves that the Buckeyes have not given up on this season. Notre Dame's injury issues finally catch up to it here.
Play on OHIO STATE.
|
12-31-15 |
Michigan State v. Alabama -9.5 |
Top |
0-38 |
Win
|
100 |
508 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Alabama.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State has struggled with teams outside of its conference for years, not only is it 0-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, but it's also just 6-8 ATS it last 14 over the last three. And note that Alabama is 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The bottom line: Michigan State won a couple of games it shouldn't have this year, while Alabama has gotten progressively better with each game this season. MSU has been good agains the run, but now faces the nation's No. 1 back in Derrick Henry. We think the Spartans "luck" runs out in this one and that the "better" team pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Play on ALABAMA.
AAA Sports
|
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma -3.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
17-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
504 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER Oklahoma.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Oklahoma is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after playing with two or more weeks of rest and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Clemson is already 0-1 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest and just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 after two or more consecutive SU wins.
And one injury to note: Clemson of course will be without the services of WR Mike Williams in this one.
The bottom line: We think Oklahoma's offense will be just too much for Clemson's defense to handle in the end. Play on OKLAHOMA.
AAA Sports
|
12-30-15 |
Wisconsin v. USC -3.5 |
Top |
23-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
37 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on USC.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a loss vs. a conference rival and 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. Play on SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AAA Sports
|
12-30-15 |
Memphis v. Auburn -3 |
Top |
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Auburn.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as some late line movement: Auburn opened as a -2.5 point favorite and has been steadily climbing, we got in at -3 and as of writing, the line has now moved to -4.5; regardless, we think the value is definitely still on the Tigers, and note that they have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS in their last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a win vs. a conference rival. Lay the short points on AUBURN.
AAA Sports
|
12-27-15 |
Texans v. Titans +5 |
Top |
34-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Houston is just 3-4 ATS on the road this season and only 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win vs. a division rival, while Tennessee is 3-2 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. While we wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the TITANS.
AAA Sports
|
12-26-15 |
Tulsa v. Virginia Tech -13.5 |
Top |
52-55 |
Loss |
-115 |
33 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia Tech.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Tulsa is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games and just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Virginia Tech is 6-4 ATS last ten as a favorite and 3-2 ATS last five non-conference contests. Play on VIRGINIA TECH.
AAA Sports
|
12-24-15 |
Chargers +5.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
80 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Diego Chargers.
Both of these teams are poor. The Chargers are 4-10, while the Raiders are 6-8. Each will miss the postseason. This is a revenge game for the Chargers though, who will look to take out their frustrations on their division rival after falling to them, 37-29 in Week 7. San Diego's secondary hasn't been horrible and we believe will have an opportunity to make some plays against the Raiders, who oddly enough have played much better on the road than at home this year. While San Diego's season has been an overall bigger disappointment, we actually think these teams are very evenly matched, but for this pick we're going to concentrate on the starting QB's and we'll give Philip Rivers the nod in this matchup over his younger counterpart Derek Carr. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as the Chargers are 4-0 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 4-2 ATS on the road this season, while Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite and just 2-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can with SAN DIEGO.
AAA Sports
|
12-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. San Diego State -1.5 |
Top |
7-42 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on San Diego State.
The Aztecs are making their sixth consecutive bowl appearance, while the Bearcats have gone bowling 13 times since 2000. The Bearcats season though has been a big disappointment and we think the team will simply go through the motions today. Cincinnati was picked by many to win the AAC, but it would stumble to a 7-5 record, snapping a streak of four consecutive seasons with at least nine wins. The Bearcats posted a minus-16 turnover margin in 12 games and there were also poor defensively, giving up an average of 5.8 yards per play and 30.3 points per contest. SDSU may not have faced the quality of opponents that Cincinnati did this year, but the team can tie a school record for the most victories in a season with a win over Cincinnati today. The Aztecs started 1-3, but finished 2015 by winning nine consecutive games, including the Mountain West Championship over Air Force. SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 scores this year; he also leads the team with 27 catches. Pumphrey though is joined by a stable of competent backs, including Chase Price and Rashaad Penny. Freshman QB Christian Chapman filled in for the injured Maxwell Smith in the win over Air Force and was an efficient 9 of 14 for 203 yards. Chapman will once again only be asked to manage this game, SDSU will be attacking on the ground, an area that the Bearcats struggled in mightily this year, ranking ninth in the AAC in giving up an average of 190.8 yards per game. Also note that Cincinnati would surrender at least 200 yards on the ground in four of its last five games to end the regular season. Cincinnati is also dealing with QB issues, Gunner Kiel won't be starting because of a personal matter, leaving Hayden Moore to carry the load today; Moore is not the same caliber of QB as Kiel is, while he did have four TD's vs. Memphis, he'd also throw eight INT's on 195 attempts. And that doesn't bode well vs. this tough Aztecs defensive unit which allowed only 4.68 yards per play, gave up only 17.2 PPG overall, generated 33 sacks while also forcing 31 takeaways. The Bearcats strength on offense is its receivers, but SDSU's strength on the defensive side of the ball is against the pass, anchored by Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Damontae Kazee. Too many question marks surrounding the Bearcats, our money is on the more complete team, play on SAN DIEGO STATE.
AAA Sports
|
12-23-15 |
Boise State v. Northern Illinois +8.5 |
Top |
55-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.
Both teams started the season strong, but faltered down the stretch, their reward is still a respectable spot in this year's Poinsettia Bowl. We took Western Kentucky on Monday, we thought the Hilltoppers dynamic offense would prove to be the difference vs. New Mexico and it was. Yesterday we also took an offensive minded school in Toledo, which proved to be too much for what seemed to be a disinterested Temple team. Both teams suffered injuries and both paid the price this year. Boise State opened the year with a big victory over Washington, but back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Air Force in the middle of November de-railed any hopes the team had at being a New Year's Six representative. NIU won the MAC West but was then blown out by Bowling Green, 34-14 in the Championship game. This game is going to feature a lot of running from both sides to set up the pass, NIU leans on Joel Bouagnon, who led the MAC with 1,270 rushing yards along with 18 rushing TD's, while Boise State hands off to Jeremy McNichols, who led the Mountain West with 18 rushing TD's off 1,244 rushing yards. Some may think that Boise State has a small advantage at QB, but note that the Huskies have just as many INT's (21) as TD passes allowed (22). Ultimately though, we don't think either team has too much of an advantage over one another and feel that field position will prove to be the difference in this "chess match." All signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AAA Sports
|
12-21-15 |
Western Kentucky -2.5 v. South Florida |
Top |
45-35 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky.
South Florida posted a 6-18 record over the previous two season's before going 8-4 in 2015, thanks in part to strong recruiting from head coach Willie Taggart. Western Kentucky is 19-7 in Jeff Brohm's first two years as head coach and the Hilltoppers have done very well against Power 5 competition, securing a win over Vanderbilt in their season opener, while also taking Indiana and LSU to the brink. With a full two weeks off to prepare for this one, we simply can't see how South Florida can match pace with WKU's high-flying offense, led by QB Brandon Doughty, the unit averaged 44.2 PPG and a large 7.19 yards per play. Doughty finished with 45 TD's and led the nation by completing 71.8 percent of his passes. Doughty is surrounded by talent, the Hilltoppers would be held to under 30 points only once this season. The Bulls strength lies on the defensive side of the ball where they held the opposition to just 21.1 PPG, but we definitely feel that the unit will have its hands full with this explosive Western Kentucky offense. The Bulls offense relies on its powerful run game, but WKU has held its last five opponents under 200 yards rushing. We're giving WKU the advantage across the board and look for the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports
|
12-20-15 |
Browns +14.5 v. Seahawks |
Top |
13-30 |
Loss |
-107 |
164 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.
Can anyone say "letdown" spot? After four straight victories, including back to back blowouts on the road, the Seahawks finally return home to play the lowly Browns, before finishing the season with games vs. St. Louis and at Arizona. Russell Wilson has been absolutely dominating over that stretch, but the big question exactly is: how has he been doing it? WR Doug Baldwin is on a torrid stretch for the Seahawks, but the team was already without the services of TE Jimmy Graham and has now also lost both of its starting RB's to injury. Cleveland actually matches up very well across the board with Seattle and we think that Johnny Manziel does indeed have more weaponry around him to utilize. Clearly Seattle has the defensive and home field advantages, but these are somewhat negated due to the above mentioned classic letdown/look ahead spot. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, this one sets up fantastically as well as Cleveland is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games, while Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. This is just a few too many points, so grab as many as you can with the BROWNS.
AAA Sports
|
12-13-15 |
Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
0-38 |
Loss |
-115 |
144 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.
While we won't be so bold as to call for the outright, straight-up victory, we do think that the weight of an undefeated season, combined with what we believe to be a classic "look-ahead/letdown" spot, will be enough of a distraction for the home side to let the visitors slip in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina gutted out a victory over a struggling Saints team last week, but only by the skin of its teeth. Things couldn't be more dire in Atlanta, a fifth straight loss against Tampa Bay last weekend means that the team is now in a do-or-die scenario every weekend, another loss and it'll be the nail in the coffin for Atlanta. Desperation breeds motivation. After opening the season 5-0, the Falcons have imploded; but that said, we think that Matt Rayan and company have a big opportunity today, as note that New Orleans' offense looked unstoppable last week, after being held to just six points in a 24-6 setback at Houston the week before. And with two road games, before a date at home vs. Tampa Bay at the end of the season, it's not too big a stretch to picture the home side "looking past" the lowly Falcons in some small way to the final part of its schedule. Also note that Atlanta is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while Carolina is just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year. Grab as many points as you can with the FALCONS.
AAA Sports
|
12-13-15 |
Chargers +10 v. Chiefs |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
144 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Diego Chargers.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers would lead us to believe. The Chargers play for pride at this point, they'll also be looking to avoid being swept by the Chiefs for a second straight season. San Diego was just embarrassed 33-3 at home to Kansas City in Week 11. Philip Rivers and the offense looked pretty horrible in last week's 17-3 loss to the Broncos, but so do many offenses obviously, Denver possesses the No. 1 overall defensive unit in the league. And on the flip-side, the Bolts did look decent defensively. And for us, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "trap game," for the suddenly surging home side, which comes in off six-straight victories, including a 34-20 decision over the Raiders last week. The Chiefs remaining schedule is extremely weak, and while surely the team will be looking to take advantage, with games at Baltimore, and at home vs. Cleveland and Oakland to finish the season, it's not too hard to imagine them "looking ahead" to what the future could hold. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for us; also note that San Diego is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to 12 points range and 13-9 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while Kansas City is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 at home and already 0-1 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 12 points range. Play on the CHARGERS.
AAA Sports
|
12-13-15 |
49ers v. Browns -1 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
144 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.
We think that Johnny Manziel and the home side do just enough to slow down the suddenly surging Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers. These teams are horrible, San Francisco is ranked 32nd overall on offense this year and 28th overall on the defensive side, while Cleveland ranks 26th overall on offense and 29th overall on defense. Manziel and Gabbert are playing for their future careers, so there's still a lot at stake for each pivot, despite their team's being out of the playoff picture. This sets up as a huge letdown spot for San Francisco in our professional opinion, which got a super-human effort out of Gabbert to snap a five-game road losing streak last week. Manziel is the better QB, he'll be plenty focused after being benched for two games for disciplinary reasons, the last time he suited up he had 372 yards vs. a vastly superior Pittsburgh defense back on November 15th. Also note that Cleveland will surely be looking to take out some frustrations after suffering its worst loss last week to the Bengals since 2005. Note that San Francisco is 2-4 ATS on the road this season and just 9-10 ATS its last 19 as an underdog, while Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. Lay the short points on the BROWNS.
AAA Sports
|
12-13-15 |
Titans +7.5 v. Jets |
Top |
8-30 |
Loss |
-124 |
144 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.
We are not entirely convinced of the suddenly surging Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets and think the visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive that what the oddsmaker are leading us to believe. Tennessee has the offense to match Fitzpatrick and WR's Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. After back-to-back victories, there's no question that this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the home side, and with games at Dallas, vs. New England and at Buffalo to end the year, there's also no doubt whatsoever that this sets up as a classic look ahead spot for the Jets as well. Two classic betting spots that are clearly working in our favor. Tennessee has been getting progressively better over the last few weeks, culminating in a break-out 42-39 victory over Jacksonville last week. Marcus Mariota and company will be looking to play spoiler down the stretch, with games at New England next week and vs. Houston and at Indianapolis to end the season. Note that Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while New York is just 4-5 ATS as a favorite this season and already 0-1 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. Play on the TITANS.
AAA Sports
|
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints +7 |
Top |
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
150 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think the home side keeps this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina is primed for a letdown here after hammering the Dallas Cowboys 33-14 on Thanksgiving Day. Conversely, with rumors now swirling around the Super Dome that head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees could be hurting the team, there's no question that the home side comes in desperate, hungry and with a chip on its shoulder, ready to play spoiler and prove the nay-sayers wrong. Indeed, do you think Brees has something to prove today? Last week's listless 24-6 loss to the Texans was the first time in 45 games that the veteran had failed to find the end zone. Note that Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven "dome" games, while New Orleans is already 3-0 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, 5-2 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS.
AAA Sports
|
12-06-15 |
Texans v. Bills -3 |
Top |
21-30 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo is 5-6 and will look to bounce back here off a 30-22 loss to Kansas City last week, while Houston is surging, winner of four straight, it's now at 6-5. Most of those wins came at home though against some pretty weak competition and now the team hits the road to play in frigid Buffalo in the middle of December. Suffice it to say, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we're constantly on the look out for. This is a do-or-die game for Buffalo, another loss will put the final nail in the coffin for its season, but a victory still gives Rex Ryan some hope. The Texans have been dominating defensively, but the offense is definitely no "World Beater," which means that the Bills beleaguered defensive unit will have a big opportunity at some redemption today (despite being banged up). Texans' QB Brian Hoyer isn't anything to write home about, expect the home side to isolate DeAndre Hopkins and to turn the visitors' already one dimensional offense, even more so. We're not saying this is going to be easy, obviously Houston's defense is one of the best in the league and Bills' QB Tyrod Taylor will have to be on top of his game, but we simply feel that the situation clearly favors the hungry home side. Also note that Houston is just 2-3 ATS on the road this year and 10-14 ATS in its last 24 when playing the role of underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home games. Play on the BILLS.
AAA Sports
|
12-06-15 |
Falcons +2.5 v. Bucs |
Top |
19-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
146 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.
After dropping four in a row, this is a must win game for the Atlanta Falcons if they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tampa is 5-6 and just beat the Falcons last month, making this an immediate revenge scenario which we can take advantage of today as well. With two dates vs. 11-0 Carolina still on the horizon, as well as arch rival New Orleans, which has already beaten the Falcons once this year, there's no question that the visitors will be risking life and limb to try and secure a victory today. We didn't jump on the Atlanta bandwagon when it started 5-0 and we also don't think the team is as bad as it looks right now after losing five of its last six. The situational factors working in favor of the Falcons are enormous here. Also note that from an ATS trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and already 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog, while Tampa is just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.
AAA Sports
|
12-05-15 |
Michigan State v. Iowa +3.5 |
Top |
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
149 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa.
These teams are very evenly matched as evidenced by the point spread and in a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. MSU is 11-1, while Iowa is 12-0. Look at the injury reports: Iowa: DE Drew Ott (knee), out for season. One player. Look at MSU: LB Ed Davis (knee), out for season; CB Vayante Copeland (fractured vertebra), out for season; OT Dennis Finley (leg), out for season; S Jalen Watts-Jackson (hip), out for season; S RJ Williamson (biceps), doubtful; FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), questionable. Both teams will be risking life and limb today, the winner is assured a spot in the second College Football Playoff. Spartans' QB Connor Cook has been as solid as the team could possibly ask for this year, but so to has Iowa pivot CJ Beathard, we're calling these two a "wash." The Hawkeyes defensive unit is a difference maker for us though, it has a Big Ten-best 17 INT's. Conversely, the Spartans' defense has been consistently inconsistent this year, which doesn't bode well vs. the Hawkeyes ground and pound run game. Note that MSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while Iowa is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. Play on the HAWKEYES.
AAA Sports
|
12-05-15 |
USC v. Stanford -4 |
Top |
22-41 |
Win
|
100 |
148 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford.
Many believe Stanford will be invited to the Final Four of College Football with a victory today and after already hammering the Trojans 41-31 on September 19th, snapping a two-game losing skid in the series, we believe the Cardinal will once again lay the law down in the PAC-12 Championship game and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Trojans have never played in the PAC-12 Championship Game, when the program last won a league title back in 2008, most of the players on the current roster were in elementary or middle school and we don't think this bodes well for newly crowned head coach Clay Helton and company. For Stanford, a victory means it will almost assuredly be playing in the College Football Championship. USC is just happy to be here and is definitely playing with "house money" at this point of the season. The mind set between the two teams is completely different and it's a factor which we feel that the oddsmakers have not properly quantified into this line. We also think Stanford is the more complete team on both sides of the ball and note, USC is just 1-4 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival, while Stanford is 5-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season and 3-0 ATS its last three games played on a neutral field. Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports
|
12-05-15 |
Florida +17.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
15-29 |
Win
|
100 |
144 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida.
Most are expecting a lop-sided destruction, but we are not, as we look for the Gators to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that's been afforded to them. Florida is 10-2, while the Tide are 11-1. Gators' QB Treon Harris will be looking for his special teams and defense to set him up with good field position today, the pivot won't be expected to do too much, rather just manage the offense, while also leaning heavily upon RB Kelvin Taylor who leads a unit which averages 137 yards per contest. While the Gators will surely be tested by the Alabama offense, note that Florida ranks among the best in the nation on that side of the ball, giving up a paltry 15.5 points and a mere 283.6 yards per game. We actually picked Alabama to win the SEC this year, but we simply feel this spread is a little large. The Crimson Tide are led by QB Jake Coker, who has four passing TD's in his last four games. The Tide will be looking to the ground game though obviously as Derrick Henry leads an attack which averages 206.1 yards per game. Note that Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field, while Alabama is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position. We think Florida's defense and special teams play a major factor and keep this on a lot closer than that the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on the GATORS.
AAA Sports
|
12-04-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green -8 |
Top |
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
127 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Bowling Green.
This is the third straight year that these two teams have met to play for the MAC Title. Last year NIU won 51-17. The year before that the Falcons won 47-27. This season however, we have a hard time imagining the Huskies matching pace with Bowling Green's high-powered offense and look for the Falcons to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Bowling Green ranks third in the nation in passing offense and third in total offense with an attack that's scored 41 points or more in eight of its last 11 games, a unit which is led by QB Matt Johnson. The Huskies are not the same team they were a year ago, especially after losing QB Drew Hare for the season, but somehow they managed to string together six straight wins and get a break right at the end, as Toledo blew its shot at the title game in the final week of the season. Bowling Green's defense is hardly a "World Beater," but it's good enough against both the run and the pass. Northern Illinois is going to have its hands full with this diverse Falcons offense though, which is now also getting significant contributions on the ground (236 yards vs. WMU and 337 vs. Ball State). Ohio gave the Falcons the blue print to slow down the Huskies attack last week and we look for the favorites to take heed. Note that NIU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field and 1-2 ATS in its last three off a loss vs. a conference rival, while BG is 5-1 ATS its last six as a fav of 10.5 to 21 points and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 off a win vs. a conference rival. Play on BOWLING GREEN.
AAA Sports
|
11-29-15 |
Cardinals v. 49ers +10.5 |
Top |
19-13 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Francisco 49ers.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset in this one, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. It's not too hard to imagine the streaking Cardinals coming into this one a bit complacent as well after winning four straight. To win this game outright, the 49ers will be looking to create turnovers, so far the team has only forced eight total. Note though that San Francisco has only committed nine total turnovers itself, so this is a team which knows how to protect the ball. This is also a big time revenge game for the 49ers after they were annihilated 47-7 in the first meeting between the teams. Note that the Cards defense is banged up, especially on the line as starter Frostee Rucker and backup Cory Redding will both be sitting. Ed Stinson is injured as well. CB Patrick Peterson is also injured. Note that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 11.5 points range, while San Francisco is already 3-2 ATS at home this season. We think the Cards come in a bit complacent and come out a bit flat, leaving the back door open just enough for the 49'ERS to sneak through.
AAA Sports
|
11-29-15 |
Saints +3 v. Texans |
Top |
6-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
97 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New Orleans Saints.
While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by the minor outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Saints are horrible on the defensive side of the ball, ranking dead last in many statistical categories, but the unit catches a major break this week in having to face the anemic Texans offense. Offensively though, Drew Brees and New Orleans are firing on all cylinders and will be looking to take advantage of a Texans defense which we think can best be described as: "inconsistent." Brees ranks first in completion percentage this season, fifth in QB rating and fifth in yards per attempt when facing pressure. Note that New Orleans is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and 2-0 ATS the last two season's following its bye week, while Houston is 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite and just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Play on the SAINTS.
AAA Sports
|
11-29-15 |
Vikings v. Falcons -2 |
Top |
20-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
97 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. The 7-3 Vikings vs. the 6-4 Falcons. The Vikes offense has stalled, RB Adrian Peterson has been awesome this year, but Teddy Bridgewater has just two TD passes over his last three games. Defensively the visitors have been good, allowing 18.4 points on 334.9 yards per game, but the Vikes now face a desperate Falcons team which has lost four of its last five. QB Matt Ryan continues to be a bright spot, he's posted six TD passes in his last three games. Defensively the team allows 21.4 points off 335.7 yards per game average. Atlanta is on the cusp, its last three losses have been decided by three points or less. Minnesota can only go so far as its QB will take it and Bridgewater and company looked pretty horrible at home vs. the Packers last week. The FALCONS are the better overall team in this one and they are playing with desperation; that's good enough for us.
AAA Sports
|
11-28-15 |
Notre Dame v. Stanford -3.5 |
Top |
36-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
80 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on Stanford.
This is a big game for both teams, but we simply can't understate how important we feel that the home field advantage will be and expect it to be the difference between these two very evenly matched opponents. Note that the home team has won the last four games in this matchup. While Notre Dame has enjoyed success against the Cardinal in Stanford Stadium for bettors in the past, it's important to note that the Irish are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after winning the previous game in a matchup, while the Cardinal are 16-6 SU in the same scenario. Also note that in the Fighting Irish's victory over Boston College last week, the team lost 1,000 yard rusher CJ Prosise and senior CB KeiVarae Russel to injury. Stanford's offensive line is a significant factor today as well, because its ability to control the line of scrimmage and win the time of possession battle invariably leads to leaving good offenses, like Notre Dame's, sitting on the sidelines. Also note that Notre Dame is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 0-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Stanford is already 5-1 ATS at home this season and 7-3 ATS when playing the role of favorite. Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports
|
11-28-15 |
Ohio State +1.5 v. Michigan |
Top |
42-13 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State.
After a perfect season a year ago which culminated in a College Football Playoff Championship, the Buckeyes finally suffered a setback last week. With the pressure of being undefeated now off their shoulders, we like the defending champs to bounce back in convincing style this afternoon. If history is any precedence, then Ohio State has to be liking its chances today, it's 4-1 SU/ATS in its last five visits to Michigan Stadium for "The Game." The Buckeyes fell apart down the stretch vs. Michigan State last week, but note that they're 12-0 SU after an ATS loss, as well as 10-3 ATS in their last 13 following a setback. Obviously it's not going to be a cake-walk, Michigan allows the second-fewest yards in the FBS, but the Wolverines come in having already exceeded expectations to this point at 9-2 in Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach. QB Jake Ruddock has been as solid as Michigan could possibly ask for, but he now faces one of the better defenses that he's seen this season. These teams are indeed very evenly matched on both sides of the ball and each is under the direction of a future hall of fame coach, but the difference is in the strong ATS trends listed above, and here: Note that Ohio State is 4-0 ATS its last four as an underdog and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Michigan is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a win vs. a conference rival and 5-6 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. We're backing OHIO STATE in this one.
AAA Sports
|
11-26-15 |
Bears v. Packers -8 |
Top |
17-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
85 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
We like the Packers to build off their best overall performance in weeks and bury the back-and-forth Bears once and for all on Thursday night. The 7-3 Packers ended a three-game slide with a big win over the Vikings last week; all three phases looked sharp, including QB Aaron Rodgers. The last time these team's met, note that Green Bay would pull away for the 31-23 victory in Week 1. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best game of the season, breaking the 100 yard mark for the first time in 2015. Chicago gets back RB Matt Forte and WR Alshon Jeffrey, but the team is coming off a heartbreaking 17-15 loss to the Broncos and with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin, we love the home side to kick the Bears while they're down. Chicago though is dealing with many other injuries, up and down the line and on both sides of the ball, while the Packers come into this one healthier than they've been all year. Chicago ranks 22nd in the league in rushing the QB, suffice it to say, we think Rodgers will put up some huge numbers today. Note that the Bears are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while the Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points and 5-2 ATS off a win vs. a division rival. A focused GREEN BAY team is the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
11-26-15 |
Texas Tech v. Texas -2 |
Top |
48-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
97 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas.
We played this one the moment the lines came out and got -2 and that number has since swung the other way as of writing this, but regardless, we like the desperate Longhorns to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Red Raiders have already clinched their bowl berth after a 59-44 win over K-State on November 14th. Texas on the other hand needs two wins to reach the postseason in head coach Charlie Strong's second year. With a date on the road vs. Baylor next week, this is a do-or-die game for the 'Horns. Desperation breeds motivation. Even if Texas doesn't make the postseason, finishing the season strong is still paramount for Strong and his staff moving into the 2016 campaign. The Longhorns have many issues on both sides of the ball, but the situational and motivational factors are simply too strong to turn down in our opinion. The Red Raiders dominate offensively, but as good as they are on that side of the ball, is as brutal as they are on the defensive side. Texas is going to have its opportunities to put points on the board and the defense catches a break vs. a complacent Red Raiders team. Also note that the Longhorns have looked a lot better against the pass of late, not allowing an opponent to throw for more than 234 yards in each of the last five games. And note that Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a conference rival and just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while Texas is 3-1 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season and 2-1 ATS off a loss vs. a conference foe. Play on the LONGHORNS.
AAA Sports
|
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys |
Top |
33-14 |
Loss |
-113 |
81 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Tony Romo and the Cowboys are coming off a solid 24-17 win over the Dolphins and we believe they'll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. the 10-0 Panthers. This is a do-or-die game for Dallas, who basically needs to win out to secure a spot in the playoffs. This is definitely not do-or-die for Carolina though, the team is already assured a playoff spot and it's not too hard to imagine the visitors finally having a letdown on the short-week. This is a fantastic situational factor that we're taking advantage of here and one which we believe the oddsmakers are not properly taking into account. Dallas possesses what many believe to be the best offensive line in the league and it also has the eighth-ranked rush unit. And now Romo is back. And the Cowboys have the advantage of playing at home as well. Additionally, it's not too hard to imagine the Panthers "looking ahead" to their game vs. division rival New Orleans next week. Desperation vs. contentedness. In our opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
|
11-22-15 |
Colts v. Falcons -4 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
162 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons
We think the bye week was the best thing that could have happened for the Falcons and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. After opening the season at 5-0, Atlanta has gone on to lose three of its last four, but comes out of its break rested and ready to take on a Colts team which will be without its starting QB. Indianapolis beat the Broncos before its bye week, but learned that Andrew Luck was lost to a lacerated kidney; note only that but the Colts also lost impressive rookie DE Henry Anderson for the season with an ACL tear. The Falcons though come back a lot healthier, the expected return of WR Leonard Hankerson will provide an immediate spark. Conversely, the Colts are once again forced to turn to 40-year old backup QB Matt Hasselbeck again this week, and while he's 2-0 in that role so far this year, he now faces his stiffest test, as note that those two victories came against struggling teams with losing records. And note that Indianapolis is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Atlanta is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the FALCONS.
AAA Sports
|
11-22-15 |
Broncos v. Bears +2 |
Top |
17-15 |
Push |
0 |
148 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bears.
It's true that Denver has played well despite the fact that Peyton Manning hasn't been at his best, but with their starting QB sitting this one out, we believe that his backup, Brock Osweiler, who is making his first career start, will stumble terribly. Manning has been diagnosed with a torn plantar fascia, which resulted in a 29-13 loss to KC last week. The problem for Osweiler is that the Broncos have no running game whatsoever, the unit is ranked 29th in the league in averaging 86 yards and has totalled 104 in the losses to the Colts and Chiefs. And now Denver faces a surging 4-5 Chicago team which is looking for its first three-game win streak in two seasons. The Bears also have an advantage with head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both who were together in Denver the last four seasons. Chicago's defense has looked much improved, after allowing an average of 35 points during an 0-3 start, the Bears are yielding just 21.5 since. QB Jay Cutler threw for three TD's last week and no INT's, while rookie Jeremy Langford has 145 rushing yards, caught ten passes for 179 yards and scored three TD's while replacing RB Matt Forte. Denver's vaunted defensive unit is still banged up, DeMarcus Ware is expected to sit this one out as well; note that the Broncos have been gashed for 668 yards, including 226 on the ground, over the last two games. We're expecting a rout from start to finish, play on CHICAGO.
AAA Sports
|
11-20-15 |
Air Force v. Boise State -12.5 |
Top |
37-30 |
Loss |
-106 |
105 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boise State.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Boise State is coming off a 31-24 loss to New Mexico. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a big bounce back for the Broncos, despite the loss QB Bretty Rypien passed for 503 yards, two TD's, but also had a costly three INT's. Note that Boise State averages 38.3 PPG and gives up just 19.6 PPG. The Falcons come to town complacent, they're coming off their fourth straight victory, this time a 35-28 win over Utah State, QB Karson Roberts threw for 271 yards and a TD. Note that Air Force averages 34.1 PPG and gives up 19.8. This is a revenge game for Boise State though, the Falcons at home defeated the Broncos by a 28-14 score on September 27th, 2014. Note that Air Force is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while Boise State is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 when playing with six days of rest. Play on BOISE STATE.
AAA Sports
|
11-16-15 |
Texans v. Bengals -10.5 |
Top |
10-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
58 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cincinnati Bengals.
We believe the 8-0 Bengals come in focused on the task at hand and look for the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It's true that the Texans still have a shot in the horrible AFC South race, trailing the Colts by just a half-game, but don't be mistaken, this is a horrible team. Cincinnati is too deep and too talented for the banged up visitors to compete with for a full four quarters; note that the Bengals dominate on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.6 PPG, they also possess the No. 4 ranked scoring defense, a unit which has allowed 20 total points in their last two contests. Texans' QB Brian Hoyer is one of the most inconsistent pivots in recent history and is completely outclassed in every department by his counterpart Andy Dalton today. Houston is completely one dimensional on offense as well as the running game is in shambles after the team lost RB Arian Foster for the season to injury, which puts added pressure onto an already swamped Hoyer. Ultimately we look for Dalton to shred this suspect Texans secondary and without enough weapons to match pace, all signs do indeed point to a long night for the visitors. Play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports
|
11-15-15 |
Chiefs +7.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
29-13 |
Win
|
100 |
148 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.
We played this one the moment the lines first came out and got +7.5 and it's since dropped, but regardless, we love the visitors to take this one down to the wire and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. This is a revenge game for Kansas City after it let a late lead slip away in a 31-24 setback to the Broncos back in Week 2. And now it appears that the two teams are indeed moving in opposite directions, as KC has won two straight, while the injured and aging Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season. The reason Denver has been so good is because of its defense, as QB Peyton Manning has thrown a league-high 13 INT's as part of an offense which is ranked 22nd in the NFL based on yards per game. And now Denver's vaunted defensive unit comes into this one severely injured, as key components Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware are both sidelined. And that's good news for the Chiefs offensive unit, QB Alex Smith has 4 TD passes in his last two games, while RB Charcandrick West has a combined 207 yards on the ground with two TD's. Note that Kansas City is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents and 12-9 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Denver is 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss after giving up 27 points or more. Play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports
|
11-08-15 |
Redskins +14 v. Patriots |
Top |
10-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
146 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Obviously we won't try to convince you that the Redskins are a great team which has gotten some unlucky breaks and that the Patriots are over-rated, we simply feel this is a great spot bet: after lowly Washington, New England has a prime-time game in New York next week, followed by a divisional contest vs. Buffalo and then a big game in Denver the week after that. It's not too hard to imagine the home side finally having a small mental letdown today as it looks ahead to the more gruelling part of its schedule (and note that the Patriots are 1-2 ATS their last three as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range). Washington on the other hand is coming out of its bye week focused on the task at hand and with some momentum of its own after beating Tampa Bay 31-30 in its last outing. Play on the REDSKINS.
AAA Sports
|
11-07-15 |
Arizona State +1 v. Washington State |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
125 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State.
We expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington State has so far been a big surprise this year, but it's coming off a heartbreaking loss to Stanford last week. ASU is also coming off a heartbreaker, losing a triple OT decision to Oregon, the Sun Devils still need two more victories to go bowling though. Ultimately we have a hard time seeing the Cougars containing Arizona State's potent run attack, which posted 344 yards on 55 carries last week. QB Mike Bercovici had 58 yards rushing and a massive night passing, completing 32 of 53 for 398 yards and five TD's. And that's bad news for the Cougars, who run defense is ranked 106th nationally, giving up an average of 5.5 YPC. Washington State QB Luke Falk had a poor outing vs. Stanford, who had a chance to lead a game-winning drive, only to be intercepted on a tough pass under pressure. The Cougars have also struggled on special teams, having already given up two kickoff returns for scores this year and they now face one of the countries most electrifying returners in ASU's Tim White. Washington State has been a nice mid-season story, but the loss to Stanford is a turning point in our opinion, whereas Arizona State will be risking life and limb today to try and earn a way to the postseason after last year's disappointing 3-9 finish. Note that Arizona State is 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Washington State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 in front of the home town crowd. Play on ARIZONA STATE.
AAA Sports
|
11-06-15 |
Temple v. SMU +11.5 |
Top |
60-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
125 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on SMU.
While we won't be so bold as to predict the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we expect the home side to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. SMU won't be playing in a bowl this year, but it will still be looking to score an upset here at home vs. a ranked opponent. Temple is ranked in the 90's in both rushing and passing yards per game. Sure, the Mustangs are ranked 124th nationally on the defensive side of the ball, but there's no question that the unit catches a big break today vs. the underwhelming Owls offensive unit. SMU will have to play with passion to keep this one close, Temple is an all around better team, but the conditions are now right for that to happen. Also note that the Owls are just 5-6 ATS their last 11 as a favorite, while SMU is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival and 10-9 ATS in its last 19 vs. conference opponents. Play on the MUSTANGS.
AAA Sports
|
11-05-15 |
Browns +10.5 v. Bengals |
Top |
10-31 |
Loss |
-118 |
82 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Browns.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with the large spread they've been afforded. Note, not since 1990, before any of its current players were even born, has Cincinnati covered ATS while being favored by 11 points or more. QB Andy Dalton and the Bengals have looked great to this point, but this one has "letdown" written all over it. Note that the Bengals run game is averaging just 3.9 YPC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, it doesn't matter who is under center for Cleveland as far as we're concerned tonight, it's the same thing. Note though that the Browns have dominated in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten as road underdogs and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 as dogs to the Bengals. Cincinnati has been decent against the run, but has injury concerns in its front seven; the pass defense has been poor this year, Cleveland TE Gary Barnridge and WR Travis Benjamin will have some opportunities to make some plays today. Grab as many points as you can with the BROWNS.
AAA Sports
|
11-02-15 |
Colts +6.5 v. Panthers |
Top |
26-29 |
Win
|
100 |
175 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Indianapolis Colts.
We think the visitors will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and while we wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Carolina is the hottest team in the league, but enters its toughest part of the schedule right now, with a game vs. the Packers next week. Conversely, the Colts are in trouble at 3-4 and desperately need a win to keep pace for a playoff spot. And with a date vs. the red hot Broncos next week, Indianapolis can ill afford to "look past" Carolina in this spot. Take a look at Carolina's victories thus far: Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia. Winning in the NFL is never easy, but none of the teams that the Panthers have beaten this year have played with any type of consistency from week to week whatsoever. Indianapolis was predicted by many to surpass the Patriots this year, but despite its 3-4 start, this is still a very good team and we think the real Andrew Luck and company finally show up tonight. If the Colts win this game outright and parlay that momentum to another victory next week at home vs. Denver, suddenly the team is in the drivers seat heading into its bye week. Conversely, if the Panthers lose tonight, it's certainly not a "do-or-die" scenario, they'll be able to move on and prepare for Green Bay next week without any worries or concerns. Desperation vs. contentedness. Note that Indianapolis is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Carolina is 5-6 ATS its last 11 as a favorite in the same points range. Play on the COLTS.
AAA Sports
|
10-26-15 |
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals |
Top |
18-26 |
Loss |
-114 |
178 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Ravens.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.
|
10-25-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2 |
Top |
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Steelers have done extremely well without Ben Roethlisberger under center, but the team now clearly faces its toughest challenge thus far in facing this desperate home side and in what is considered one of the toughest venues in the league to play in. Pittsburgh is 4-2. Surprising because Roethlisberger has been out with injury since Week 2. Backup Mike Vick was injured last week as well, which means that Landry Jones is likely to get his very first start today. NOTE: There is a chance that Roethlisberger will get the nod in this one, head coach Mike Tomlin is waiting an hour or so before game time to 100% confirm this, but if he is playing, we still love this selection. Whether it's Jones, Vick or a less than 100% Roethlisberger under center, we expect whoever it is to have his hands full today. So far the Steelers defense has been a strength for the team, looking sharp in slowing down gunslingers in Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer the past two weeks respectively, but that's about to change this week. On the other side of the field, the Chiefs are 1-5. Also surprising considering the way the team looked in the preseason (4-0), but note, the offense took a major hit with the loss of RB Jamaal Charles last week. Obviously that's not a good thing, but with the return of top WR Jeremy Maclin, we're looking for the struggling Alex Smith to have a big day today as we finally expect head coach Andy Reid to give his veteran pivot the green light to air things out. Also note, it's not too hard to imagine the Steelers getting caught "looking ahead" to their matchup at home vs. division leading Cincinnati next week, while conversely, both Smith and Reid are playing for their future careers today. From a situational standpoint, they don't get much stronger than this,and it's the reason why this play has been stamped with "RD" status, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports
|
10-18-15 |
New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +7.5 |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
164 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.
Andrew Luck is back and he'll look to keep the momentum rolling for an Indianapolis team which has won two in a row in his absence. Matt Hasselbeck and the offense looked great last week vs. the Texans and we expect that chemistry to be carried over with the team's true leader under center. Remember, Luck has been the top fantasy QB the last three years and while that's not been the case so far this season, we're expecting the hungry pivot to be at his best this evening. Every facet of Indianapolis' game has improved after a couple of duds to open the season and we think that the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing that fact, instead everyone is focusing on Luck and the QB issues. But with the rest of the team coming together, the table is now finally set for Luck to dominate. What more can be said about the Patriots which hasn't literally been said a thousand times at this point. The team comes out of its bye week ready to continue the onslaught, but we feel that rest and complacency are a legitimate factor to open this game, issues which we believe will leave the back door open wide enough for the home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Note that the Patriots are in fact just 8-11 ATS in their last 19 on the road, while the Colts are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 in front of the home town crowd and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 off a win vs. a division rival. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can with INDIANAPOLIS.
AAA Sports
|
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7 v. Michigan |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
142 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright straight up victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are the current flavor of the month and while we'll be the first to admit that the team has looked extremely good over the last three games, we haven't completely bought into the hype yet. And while MSU has struggled a bit over its last couple of games, it still comes into this one with one more win than the home side (6-0 compared to 5-1); and note that the Spartans looked very good in their win over Oregon earlier in year, this is a unit which has already proven that it can step up in the big moments. Will this be a cake walk for Michigan State? Obviously not, there's no question that the Wolverines' defense is playing at an extremely high level and its offense continues to make strides seemingly with every outing. But will this be a cake walk for Michigan? In our opinion, the answer is clearly: of course not! This will be Michigan's toughest opponent by far and in our opinion, Jake Rudock is nowhere close to Connor Cook's equal and that definitely counts for something. Note that Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while Michigan is 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can with MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports
|
10-16-15 |
UNLV v. Fresno State +3 |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
126 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Fresno State.
We wait every week for the "Football" lines to come out and often make our selections within minutes of their release. Sometimes this works favorably for us and other times, like last night where we had North Texas at +28, lucky to get the cover with the final line closing at +34.5 in some places, it works against us. And the latter is the case unfortunately here, we took the home side at +3 and that's since gone up to +7 in most places, but regardless, we still love this selection as we expect the Bulldogs to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UNLV is just 2-4 and is coming off a deflating 33-27 OT loss to visiting San Jose State last week; the Rebels were led by QB Kurt Palendech in that one, he'd go 15 of 30 with two TD's and a pair of costly INT's though. The Bulldogs have nothing to lose today, the team wasn't expected to dominate this season and it'll be especially eager to pull off an upset after five straight losses, including last week's 56-14 setback to visiting Utah State. Both teams are equally horrible, we just feel that UNLV's issues at QB are something the home side can take advantage of, also note that this is a spot in which the Rebels have struggled in for bettors recently, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road favorite in the 3 to 10 points range. And note that this is actually a position in which Fresno State has performed well in, going 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can with the BULLDOGS.
AAA Sports
|
10-15-15 |
Western Kentucky v. North Texas +28 |
Top |
55-28 |
Win
|
110 |
100 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on North Texas.
We watch the lines each week the very second they're released and often jump on one if we think the value is right. Sometimes this works for us and other times it works against us. The latter scenario is the case this week, but regardless, we still love this selection. We're on North Texas at +28. Some/most of you will be able to get +33 or possibly even better by kick-off. WKU's offense is firing on all cylinders, but we feel this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors and look for this complacency to ultimately prove to be the difference in the end. The Mean Green come in under the direction of interim coach Mike Canales after UNT cut ties with Dan McCarney following a 66-7 home loss to FCS top-25 team Portland State; coaching changes in the middle of the season can rally a team and that's exactly what we're expecting here. We look for Brandon Doughty to come out firing, to jump out to an early insurmountable lead and then to take the foot off the gas, leaving the backdoor open just enough for the now motivated home side to sneak through down the stretch: “We are going to try to bring some excitement and fun back,” Canales said. So not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the visitors in our opinion, but it's also no doubt a classic "look ahead" position as well with a game at LSU next Saturday. We're grabbing the points, play on NORTH TEXAS.
AAA Sports
|
10-15-15 |
Auburn -1 v. Kentucky |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Auburn.
Kentucky has the advantage at QB tonight, as Patrick Towles is fifth in the SEC in passing yards. Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson was supposed to be the new Cam Newton, but he was benched after three games for redshirt freshman Sean White, who has done well as a manager the past two games. Johnson is expected to get the start here. One big advantage that Auburn does have offensively is in the RB department, Kentucky's Boom Williams ran for 135 yards vs. Louisiana Lafayette and 107 at South Carolina, but the Tigers' Peyton Barber already has four 115-yards-plus games and is fourth in the SEC in rushing (111.6 yards per game), running for an amazing five TD's vs. San Jose State. We'll call the WR department a "wash," neither team has a significant advantage over the other. Both teams have big and bruising lines on both sides of the ball, but from a trend based stand point, there's no question that the visitors have a major advantage tonight, as note that Auburn is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 vs. conference opponents and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records, while Kentucky is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog, 8-10 ATS in its last 18 in front of the home town crowd and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. Play on AUBURN.
AAA Sports
|
10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3 |
Top |
24-20 |
Loss |
-120 |
155 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Diego Chargers.
Both teams are 2-2 and two games back of the 4-0 division leaders. The big difference of course is that the Steelers are without their No. 1 QB for at least a few more weeks, while Philip Rivers and the Chargers are returning to full strength and will be looking to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Pittsburgh backup Mike Vick is averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt and has yet to complete a pass past 20 yards, clearly he'll once again be leaning heavily upon RB Le'Veon Bell. Note that Vick has fumbled twice on 87 snaps and has already been sacked six times on 44 dropbacks, his sack rate of 15.8 is the highest in the league. The Chargers rank third in the NFL with 21 gains of 20 yards or more, while Rivers is on pace to finish with a career-high 8.9 yards per attempt, which spells trouble for a Steelers defense which ranked in the bottom ten in football with 83 missed tackles last year and suffered a ton of losses in the offseason. We have a hard time seeing the visitors slowing down San Diego's dynamic TE's, Ladarius Green who is now complimented by Antonio Gates. who makes his season debut tonight. Also note that the Steelers have not won on the West Coast since 2005. This is essentially a do-or-die game for the home side who can't afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent, we're laying the points and expecting a lop-sided destruction; play on the CHARGERS.
AAA Sports
|
10-11-15 |
San Francisco 49ers +7 v. NY Giants |
Top |
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
167 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.
We feel that the home side is set up for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, including a convincing win at Buffalo last week. The 49ers have had a rough start to the year, but the team had no delusions coming into the season, everyone knowing that this was going to be a rebuilding process. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick is playing for his career this year, and while he's struggled at time this season, he does have the very competent Carlos Hyde to hand off to, who is averaging 4.5 YPC. Giants' QB Eli Manning has looked a lot better of late, but New York is already famous this season for a couple of fourth quarter meltdowns. Also, with a game at division rival Philadelphia next Monday night, it's not too hard to imagine the home side looking ahead to that one. And note that San Francisco is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 on the road, while New York is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do feel that the 49'ERS can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
AAA Sports
|
10-11-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 |
Top |
31-38 |
Win
|
102 |
159 h 13 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We like the home side to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. It's hard to win on the road. It's hard to play on the road period, just ask the Jaguars, who will be playing their third straight away from friendly confines. Last week the Jags blew a golden opportunity to beat the Colts in the 16-13 OT setback and suffice it to say, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visiting side today. In the loss to Carolina, Bucs' QB Jameis Winston threw four INT's, but did finish 26 of 43 for 287 yards and two TD's as well. There's no question that Winston catches a break facing Jacksonville's secondary this week, and note, for the most part he's actually been pretty impressive this season having already thrown for 965 yards and six TD's. And despite the team's 1-3 record, the Buccaneers defense has given up an average of just 107.3 yards so far this year, which is the 16th best run defense in the league (bad news for Jags' rookie phenom RB TY Yeldon!). But not to be outdone, note that Tampa's pass defense is tied for second in the NFL with the Jets at 185.5 per game. The Bucs are also tied for ninth in the league with nine sacks. We think the Jags are deflated, while the Bucs are motivated, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided blowout; lay the points with confidence on TAMPA BAY.
AAA Sports
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10-11-15 |
Washington Redskins +9 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
19-25 |
Win
|
100 |
159 h 11 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.
We think that the red hot Falcons come into this one a bit complacent and leave the backdoor open just enough for the Redskins to sneak through. Washington sits atop the NFC East in a three way tie with the Giants and Cowboys, and could actually be 3-1 if not for one poor play. We primarily base our picks on "situations," and it's not too hard to imagine the Falcons, who are coming off a 48-21 annihilation of the Texans, having letdown in this spot (also note that this is also a "look ahead" scenario for the home side, which has a quick turnaround with a Thursday night game at division rival New Orleans). The Redskins have been getting the job done with their No. 1 ranked run game, led by Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson, which is bad news for a Falcons unit which has yet to be really tested this year. This will be all about controlling the clock for the visitors as they look to keep the home side's potent offense off the field of play. Clearly the Redskins can't get into a shootout with Julio Jones and the high-flying Falcons, but note that Washington's secondary has been surprisingly resilient considering some of the injury issues. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think this one will be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on WASHINGTON.
AAA Sports
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10-10-15 |
Michigan State -17 v. Rutgers |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
148 h 39 m |
Show
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This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State.
The Spartans are 5-0 SU but 0-5 ATS. Other than the victory over the Ducks, none of the Spartans wins have looked overly impressive. It's time to put up or shut up this weekend though, MSU has the the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Rutgers is banged up. When you dig a little deeper into Rutgers numbers, they are in fact misleading, with games vs. lightweights Norfolk State, Kansas and Washington State. QB Connor Cook and the offense have a big opportunity today, the Scarlet Knights' defense has major injury issues and has already been prone to giving up the big play this season; and note that the MSU run game has really developed over the last couple of outings, keep your eyes on RB's Madre London, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and LJ Scott who had two scores and 146 rushing yards in last week's win over Purdue. Don't let the win over inept Kansas fool you, this is a Rutgers team that has more questions than answers still. Offensively the Scarlet Knights are led by Chris Laviano, who has already thrown five INT's and while the MSU secondary has given up a few plays, we feel the advantage still lies with the visitors. And note, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS after playing a conference game. Conversely, this is a spot in which Rutgers has struggled in for bettors, just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 vs. conference opponents, only 6-9 ATS in its last 15 in front of the home town crowd and a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven when playing with two weeks or more of rest. We got in early and have a very unfavorable line (-17), but regardless, we love this selection and are expecting a wire-to-wire rout, unload with confidence on MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports
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10-04-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
110 |
100 h 13 m |
Show
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This is a 10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT on the Washington Redskins.
We played the Eagles last week and they'd barely hold on for the 24-17 win over the Jets, scoring all 24 points in the first half. Washington should have won in Week 1, but fell 17-10 at home to the Fish, before then trouncing the Rams 24-10 in Week 2, only to then fall 32-21 in New York last Sunday. Philadelphia looked poor offensively last Sunday, most of its points came from special teams and defensive play, we have a hard time seeing the Eagles getting a similar effort today vs. a Redskins team which plays much better in front of the home town crowd. This is essentially a do-or-die game for Washington as well and while we obviously wouldn't be surprised by an outright straight-up victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And note that from an ATS trend based stand point, this play is very strong as Philadelphia is a poor 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favorite and just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Washington is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the REDSKINS.
AAA Sports
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