Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) The bookmakers are just begging people to take the Giants here. The vast majority of the bets are on New York, but I'm going the other way here and predicting that that desperate home side will not only win, but win big. I also expect a letdown here finally from the over-acheiving Giants who enter at 5-1, fresh off an upset win at home over Baltimore. The Giants will have to be careful to not get caught looking ahead here to their game at Seattle next week. At 2-4 the Jaguars simply NEED to win this game. Jacksonville actually enters off three straight losses. Trevor Lawrence could easily have a winning record right now if not for an unlucky bounce here or there. This is do or die for the home side and I expect that to the be the difference-maker; lay the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10* SAINTS (GOW) The Cardinals have lost four of their last six overall, and three straight at home. They're averaging less than 20 PPG. Their run game is "OK," but they lack a passing offense with Murray as QB. DeAndre Hopkins does return from suspension this week, but I don't think he'll make much of an impact having sit out the last six weeks. New Orleans has been strong against the pass, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air while on the road. That turns Arizona really one-dimensional still. New Orleans on the other hand has averaged over 150 rushing yards per game. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (AFC WEST GOY) Denver is 2-3 and LA is 3-2. Clearly this is a big game for each team. Neither side has lived up to the offseasno expectations. Especially Denver. Russell Wilson signed a nearly $250 million dollar contract and his performance to this point has been very weak. The veteran will be out to reverse his fortunes here against Christian Herbert and the Chargers. So far Denver is only averaging 15 PPG, but making up for it on the other side by allowing just 16. The Chargers enter having won two straight. The Chargers score 24.4 PPG, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 27.2. That's music to Wilson's ears finally. LA routinely plays down to the level of its competition. It's hard to imagine that Wilson has fallen off his skill set this quickly. I expect to see his best game of the season so far and while I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab the points; the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 40 m | Show |
10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY) I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC GOM) At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Jets +4 v. Steelers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 149 h 42 m | Show |
10* JETS (AFC GOY) Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! AAA Sports |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM) They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOW) Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 132 h 38 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY) The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY) Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Titans +10.5 v. Bills | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -130 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
10* TITANS (MNF GOY) Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee! AAA Sports |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY) I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
10* CHARGERS (GOW) These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points. AAA Sports |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 297 h 29 m | Show |
10* BENGALS (GOM) The Bengals have been consistently underestimated by their opponents and the bookmakers throughout the post-season, and I believe that's still the case here in the Super Bowl. Both the Rams and Bengals have played to some tight games throughout the postseason and that trend is going to continue here. LA had to come from behind to knock off the 49ers by a score of 20-17, while Cincinnati also rallied in its conference championship game to beat the Chiefs 27-24 in OT. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are very similar. LA averages 27.1 PPG, while the Bengals average 27.1 as well. Cincinnati allows 22.1 PPG, while LA concedes 21.9. This is going to be a great game, but another one that I expect to come right down to the wire; because of that, let's grab the points with the Bengals! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 50 m | Show |
10* 49ERS (GOW) The 49ers continue to get little respect here. They just dismantled the Green Bay Packers on their own field by a score of 13-10. This 49ers defense, especially the secondary and pass rush, are on a whole other level right now. LA lost to San Francisco 27-24 in OT in Week 18, and frankly I see an almost identical outcome here as well. The Rams crushed the Cardinals, but they had a much more difficult time with the Bucs in Tampa last weekend. The 49ers' offensive numbers are comparable over the last month, but San Francisco's vast superiority on the defensive side of the ball makes it the correct call in the NFC Championship game in my opinion; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 0 m | Show |
10* EAGLES (A$$A$$IN) The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philadelphia back on October 14th. You've heard that old saying right, that "revenge is a dish best served cold?!" Outright victory?! Anything is possible, but in reality I am expecting this one to be extremely competitive. With a record of 9-8, the Eagles are happy to be here. Jalen Hurts and Jordan Howard are ready to go for the visiting side, but Tampa will be without RB Leonard Fournette and WR Antonio Brown (the former out with injury, the latter released from the team.) Philly won four of its last five games and I expect it to push Tom Brady and the defending champs to the brink today. The Bucs are filled with talent and experience, but I'll argue that the Eagles are the much "hungrier" team in this fight. No outright, but all signs point to this one being decided late; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 20 m | Show |
10* PATRIOTS (WC GOY) I feel as if this play is slightly contrarian. The Patriots stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, while the Bills won their final 4 games to claim the AFC East title. These teams split their season series, each winning on the others field. If you're wagering on this contest, then you know the cast of characters on both sides. You know the strengths and the weaknesses of each team. You know the story lines. So why is Mac Jones and Bill Bellichick going to bounce back here and find a way to deliver? The Patriots have the offense (27.2 points) to keep pace with the Bills (28.4.) Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game as well from the visiting side as it looks to duplicate the success it had here in the first game between the clubs this season. I give a big nod to Josh Allen at QB in this matchup, but the Patriots get the nod for their run game. Defenses are equal. This one really is going to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so because of that gentlemen, let's grab up as many points as we can! AAA Sports |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 204 h 3 m | Show |
10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia. They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
10* LIONS (NFC NORTH GOY). Green Bay has already wrapped up the NFC No. 1 seed, so QB Aaron Rodgers may or may not see any time under center today. Why would Green Bay risk their top asset in a meaningless game? Or any of its assets, like WR Davante Adams. Jared Goff will likely sit for the Lions as well today, as there's no point risking his contract in this contest. That means that Tim Boyle will get another shot after facing the Seahawks last weekend (he had 262 yards passing, but also three picks.) Dan Campbell's men play hard for him and this will be a rare opportunity for his team to "steal" a win against Green Bay. The Packers could care less about this contest, while it would be a big boost to this Detroit side if it could pull off a SU upset and have something to build on after such a terrible season. Outright? Possibly! But let's grab the points, as the play is indeed on Detroit! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
CHIEFS (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Chiefs were upset 34-31 to Cincinnati last weekend, but I think they'll bounce back here in this favorable spot. Denver has been eliminated from playoff contention after last weekend's 34-13 loss to the Chargers. KC is now in second spot in the AFC behind Tennessee, so this is a big game for Patrick Mahomes and company. What can the Broncos play spoiler for here? The Chiefs are in the playoffs already. There's zero motivating factors working for Drew Lock and the Broncos today. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while KC is 14-4 in its last 18 on the road and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 in this series. Look for KC to go up huge early and then coast to a relatively simple win and cover! AAA Sports |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* Steelers (BLOOD-BATH) I don't particularly "like" either of these starting quarterbacks (or teams for that matter!) in this matchup. That said, despite his age and the "ups and downs" he's experienced this year, I trust veteran Ben Roethlisberger at home over Browns' starter Baker Mayfield. The Browns have lost two straight, most recently a tough 24-22 loss to Green Bay. The Steelers are off a 36-10 loss to Kansas City. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be loving their chances as they're 6-3-1 the last ten in this series. Each teams averages and concedes roughly the same amount of points. This is Roethlisberger's final game at Heinz Field though, as he's all but announced that he'll be retiring at the end of the year. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, but look for "home field" to be the difference today. The play is Pittsburgh! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* AFC GAME OF YEAR Miami Dolphins. Miami has won seven straight, most recently beatting New Orleans 20-3. The Dolphins current win streak has vaulted them into the final playoff spot in the AFC. Overall Miami averages 20.3 PPG, while allowing 21. On paper, that doesn't sound like a recipie for success, but those numbers are skewed after its terrible start to the season. In last weekend's win, QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 19 of 26 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown. Tennessee is off a 20-17 win over San Francisco. The Titans average 23.8 PPG, while allowing 21.7. QB Ryan Tannehill had 209 yards passing and one TD in last weekend's victory. The Fish don't run the ball particularly well, but Tagovailoa is going to be able to exploit this Titans' secondary. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm going to grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEMSON Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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12-28-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 503 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI New Orleans was kind to us last Sunday night, so we almost feel a bit bad playing against them here. But the situation has gotten bleak for the 7-7 Saints, who placed quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the COVID-19 list Thursday. That means fourth string rookie Ian Book will be making his first NFL start Monday night. Keep in mind that the Saints’ offense only scored nine points last week. The defense, which shut out Tom Brady, is also now dealing with multiple COVID-related absences. Now Miami, another 7-7 team, was kind to us last week as well, in that they didn’t cover the spread. But the Dolphins still picked up their sixth straight win, beating the Jets 24-17. It shouldn’t be much trouble for a red-hot team to beat a COVID-depleted opponent, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS during their six-game win streak. Shockingly, the Saints defense gives up 402 yards/game at home, most in the NFL. Once a power-house in primetime, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight night games, including 1-3 this year. Miami is the call here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEVADA No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them. Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON These teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. Dallas won in Week 14, 27-20, just barely covering as 6.5 point favorites thanks to Washington missing an extra point. A second win over the Football Team would clinch the NFC East for the Cowboys, who are already in the playoffs by virtue of a 21-6 win last week over the Giants. Entering this week, Dallas is tied with Green Bay for the best ATS record in the league. Washington, now 6-8, is fighting for its playoff life after a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The short week does the Football Team no favors, but they are at home and set to get QB Heinicke back from the COVID list. We also think this number is too big. Dallas scored just two offensive touchdowns last week. Washington is 4-1-1 its past six games as an underdog. The Cowboys have not won back to back games by double digits at any point this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct 24 at Green Bay. The Cowboys have been very lucky to force four turnovers in each of the last games. Grab the points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KC Pittsburgh has no business having a winning record as all seven wins this year have been one-score games and they’re -44 in point differential. This is a team that's being outgained by 50 yards/game. In four of their last five games, the Steelers have been down by double digits. They were able to overcome a 13-3 deficit last week to beat Tennessee, but are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins. Their only other SU win since early November (other than last week) was by one point over Baltimore, who went for two and the win instead of forcing overtime. The Steelers lost by 31 to Cincinnati, trailed the Chargers by 17 in the second half and the Vikings 29-0. Kansas City is not having any such issues at the moment. They have seven in a row and covered the spread five straight times. Before last week’s overtime win over the Chargers, the KC defense had allowed 17 points or less six weeks in a row. The Steelers’ offense isn’t good at all. For the Chiefs’ offense, Tyreke Hill has been activated from the COVID list. Take the far better team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY No matter if it’s Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum or Bernie Kosar, the Browns don’t stand a chance at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in 2021 home games. The six wins have come by an average of 13.7 points. Last week’s win in Baltimore got too close for comfort at the end, but Green Bay was up big in that one and we don’t see them making the same mistake of letting Cleveland hang around here. The Browns are getting their COVID players back this week, but that comes at a bit of a price. With so many players out last week, the game was moved to Monday. That now puts them on a very short week. In the last six games, the Browns are averaging 13.6 points, which would rank 30th in the league ahead of just the Giants and Jaguars. Also, the team’s best defensive player, Myles Garrett, may not play in this game. Green Bay has put up 31 or more points each of the last four weeks. This is no contest. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF We really like San Francisco in this Thursday night matchup. They are playing much better than Tennessee at the moment and the Titans’ alarming number of absences only continues to grow. It was announced Wednesday that the entire starting left side of the Titans’ offensive line - tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold - will miss this game. That seems particularly ill-timed as the 49ers have Nick Bosa, who has recorded 15 sacks this year and one in each of the last six games. Of course, the Titans were already without Derrick Henry and we’ve seen the effect on their offense as they’ve gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points. Their only win in those four games was over the hapless Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games and now control their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. Go back to the start of the season and you may remember that many were predicting the Niners to be one of this year’s most improved teams. They just rocked Atlanta 31-13 at home last week. On the road, SF has been a covering machine for Kyle Shanahan, going 15-8 ATS including 4-1 when favored by three or less. The Niners have won 17 of their last 23 road games. They are the better team, so we will lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY AAA |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHI With Minnesota desperately needing a win tonight, this line has skyrocketed. The Vikings are one of five NFC teams currently with six or seven wins and the Saints shocking upset of the Buccaneers last night puts even more pressure on the road team to win here. While it is true that the Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to suffer a defeat by more than eight points, they also have just one win by more than eight points and that was back in Week 3 against Seattle. Not sure how you can trust this team laying more than a field goal on the road after watching them blow nearly all of a 29-0 lead last week at home to Pittsburgh. Minnesota is never as good away from home where they are giving up 29.2 points/game as opposed to the 21.2 per game they allow at home. They have just two road wins all year. Plus they are just 5-16 at Soldier Field this century and 1-5 overall in the last six meetings with the Bears. QB Cousins has a terrible 1-9 record on Monday Night Football. The Bears were winning at halftime last week at Green Bay, so don’t be fooled by that final score. Three of the four previous games were decided by three points or less. We’re grabbing the points. How can you trust Minnesota to win big on the road? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS So much has changed since the Saints defeated the Buccaneers 36-27 as four point home dogs back in Week 8. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to injury in that win and hasn’t really gotten great quarterback play since. After beating Tampa, the Saints lost their next five games, a streak which finally ended last week by beating the Jets 30-9. The Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS as double digit favorites this season and have a 6-0 record at home. So it’s not a surprise that they are such big favorites for Sunday Night Football. But we still like this Saints’ defense and think they can keep it close. Trevor Siemian took a lot of the snaps for NO in the first game vs. the Bucs. Now it’s going to be Taysom Hill, who adds a different dimension to the offense. Tampa’s defense showed that it was not very good last week, letting Buffalo come back from a 21-point halftime deficit to force overtime. Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup last week after missing four games. The Saints have won the last six regular season meetings with the Bucs. Do they win here? Probably not. But they will stay within the number. So take the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Last week, the SuperBook had the look-ahead line for this game at Bengals -3. But due to last week’s results, we’re now a long ways away from that look-ahead line. Denver definitely didn’t have any problem winning 38-10 last week, but that was against a 1-win Detroit team that was playing shorthanded. As for Cincinnati, they came all the way back from a 20-6 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime. But after kicking a FG to go up 23-20, the defense gave up a TD to lose 26-23. With both the Bengals and Broncos coming in at 7-6, this is a massive game for both teams’ playoff hopes. The bloom has come off the “Cincinnati rose” a bit in recent weeks as the Bengals have lost two straight at home. But they still have a +61 point differential and are 4-1 on the road. We think the Bengals are better than the Broncos. No team has scored more touchdowns outside the red zone than Cincy. Joe Burrow’s finger injury doesn’t look to be a problem as he threw for over 300 yards last week. We really can’t see the Bengals losing three straight after such a good start to the year. Home favorites of less than a field goal have performed quite poorly this NFL season. They are 6-14 straight up and ATS. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-19-21 | Jets +9.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NY JETS Miami returns from its bye on a five-game win streak (also 5-0 ATS) and at 6-7 for the year. They are just one game behind the Bills for second place in the AFC East and very much still alive in the playoff hunt. Down at the bottom of the division is the Jets, who are 3-10 and coming off a rather ugly 30-9 home loss to New Orleans. While we can understand the lack of enticement for the Jets in this spot, this is a lot of points for Miami to lay. The Dolphins still only average 19.5 points/game. They were 6.5 point favorites in their last game and did cover, but that’s the only game this season where the ‘Fins were a favorite of more than 3.5 points. During the win streak, Miami’s average of 2.9 yards per carry ranked dead last in the league and they may not have any of their top three running backs on Sunday. Are the Jets bad? In a word, yes. But only three teams in NFL history have gotten back to .500 after falling six or more games below and it’s happened only once since 1984. If this line reaches double digits, it will be only the second time since 2010 that Miami is favored by 10 or more. What we are saying here is that the line is just too high. The Jets will keep this one close. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Tennessee is 9-4, which believe it or not has them tied with the Patriots and Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. We understand that the Titans beat the Chiefs as well as the likes of the Colts, Bills and Rams. But does this really “feel” like the top team in the AFC? We don’t think so. Do not forget they lost to the Texans. With only a +34 point point differential on the year, Tennessee should probably feel lucky to be 9-4. Remember their point differential was only +14 before sending Urban Meyer to an early retirement last week. The Titans have four wins by three points or less. Now Pittsburgh’s also been a bit lucky in close games. But with their record at only 6-6-1, they are in much more dire need of a win Sunday. At home, we think they get the win they need. Lots of injuries on the Titans' side. There’s no Derrick Henry and no AJ Brown. That’s part of the reason the offense could only manage 3.8 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Key for the Steelers is getting off to a good start. They’ve scored zero first half touchdowns the last three games and found themselves in a 28-0 hole vs. Minnesota last week. But that was a Thursday game, just four days removed from a physical win over the Ravens. Now they’ve had more time to prepare and are at home. As a small favorite, they’ll come up big. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 272 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA AAA |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND The Colts are actually favored here. While they are a good team and probably better than their 7-6 record, Indy isn’t as good as New England, who is the hottest team in the league. The Patriots opened this season at 2-4. Since then, they have both won and covered seven in a row. Both teams are off byes here. But we like the Patriots defense, which has allowed no more than 13 points in six of those last seven wins. That defense is why the Pats were able to get away with throwing just three passes two Mondays ago in Buffalo. It also helped that they ran for 222 yards. Now it’s not as if the Colts aren’t hot themselves. They’ve won four of five and seven of 10 (two losses in overtime). However, three of their last four wins were over the Jets, Jags and Texans aka the three worst teams in the NFL, New England is on an 8-0 run against Indianapolis. While many of the players have changed, Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach for all of those wins. NE has also won all six of its road games this year. The Colts are only 3-4 here at home. The Patriots should be the favorites in this game. Because they are not, we are definitely “getting down.” Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BYU BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was 0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU. AAA |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City has won its last six games and it’s been the defense leading the charge. The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 points/game during the six-game win streak with no opponent scoring more than 17 on them. The last three weeks have seen KC give up exactly nine points in every game. It’s also on a 4-0 ATS run at the betting window. Tonight’s game shapes up as the biggest of the year. The Chiefs have revenge for a 30-24 loss back in Week 3. If they win tonight, then it’s a two-game lead in the AFC West. But if they lose, they’re tied with the Chargers and would lose the tiebreak. We believe in KC, not just because of the defense, but also Patrick Mahomes. Despite having what is considered a “down year,” Mahomes is still fifth in the league with 3,642 passing yards. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week on the Raiders. They were -4 in turnovers in the first meeting with the Chargers and got outscored 16-7 in the fourth quarter. That turnover margin negated a 437-352 edge in total yards and 33-21 edge in first downs. The Chiefs have won seven straight road games over the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the sport. On the COVID front, LA could be without 2-3 starting offensive linemen. Look for Kansas City to get its revenge tonight and keep rolling. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS After enduring an 0-3 November (SU and ATS), the Rams had what amounted to a “get well game” last week as they throttled the Jaguars 37-7. That leaves them two games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West and tonight is pretty much a “must win” if the Rams have any hope of winning the division. That’s because they lost the first meeting with Arizona, 37-20, back in Week 4 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Here’s why we think tonight will be different for the Rams. For starters, the Cardinals are just 3-2 since a 7-0 start. Also, while Arizona is 7-0 SU on the road, they are just 3-2 at home. Going back further, the Cards are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home favorite. Going into Sunday, any home favorite of three points or less was just 6-13 straight up and against the spread this year in the NFL. Sean McVay was 8-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals prior to the Week 4 loss. Don’t be fooled by the fact Arizona won 33-22 last week. They were outgained 329-257 and had 12 fewer first downs than the Bears. The key to the Cardinals winning at Soldier Field was being +4 in the turnover department. Thanks to roster additions like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr, the Rams are a stronger team now than they were back in Week 4. This game is more important to them, so we are taking the points. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Back in Week 6, Green Bay (-5.5) defeated Chicago 24-14 at Soldier Field. It was during that game Packers QB Aaron Rodgers quipped about “owning” the Bears. Rodgers has a point. Only Brett Favre has more wins over Chicago during the Super Bowl era. Favre went 23-13 vs. the Bears in his career. Rodgers might have fewer wins than his predecessor, but has been more profitable to bet on with a 19-6 ATS (21-5 SU) head to head record against the “Monsters of the Midway.” The Bears have won just one game since that Week 6 loss. That was on Thanksgiving against the Lions where they needed a last second field goal to win 16-14. Justin Fields is expected to start Sunday night for Chicago. But honestly who cares? The Bears offense is no better with Fields than it is with Andy Dalton. Lame duck coach Matt Nagy is calling the plays either way. Green Bay is playing at home and coming off the bye. The Pack are 5-0 SU and ATS in Lambeau, scoring 27.8 points/game while allowing just 14.4. In the last two games, GB has scored 31 and 36 points. The Bears have yet to score more than 27 in any game all season and have scored 20 or less a total of eight times. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO In blustery conditions, the Bills went down 14-10 at the hands of the Patriots Monday night. It’s a loss that leaves them at 7-5 and two games off the pace in the division. Given how this season started, it’s kind of shocking to see Buffalo with five losses right now. Even more strange is that New England was able to win despite attempting only three passes! You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attempt a lot more than that. But fortunately, the Bills’ pass defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game (165.3) and fewest touchdowns allowed (8). The Bills’ offense won’t have to contend with horrible weather conditions here in Tampa Bay, so look for Josh Allen and the passing attack to be revitalized. Even after Monday, Buffalo still averages 28.0 points/game, placing them in the top five in the league. Tampa is undefeated at home, but they’ve previously hosted the Giants, Bears, Dolphins, Falcons and Cowboys. Only the Cowboys have a winning record out of that group and the Bucs beat them by just two points. Buffalo has been an underdog only one other time this season. It was against Kansas City, a game they won 38-20. The perception right now is that the Bucs are a lot better than the Bills. But we don’t agree with that and will take the points. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army AAA |
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12-09-21 | Steelers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT These are two teams desperately needing a win as each tries to remain relevant in their respective conference’s playoff race. There’s no doubt that the Steelers are in better shape right now at 6-5-1 and coming off a surprise 20-19 win over the Ravens. While Pittsburgh now has to hit the road on a short week, they are facing a 5-7 Vikings team that just lost to the Lions and has two key playmakers on offense banged up. WR Thielen will not play for Minnesota tonight. RB Dalvin Cook reportedly will, but we don’t think he’ll be all that effective after suffering a dislocated left shoulder 11 days ago. You’ve got to think this will end up being a close game. The Steelers and Vikings have combined to play 24 games this season. Of those, 19 have been one-score games. That’s one of the reasons we’re taking the points tonight. The other is that the Steelers have a much better defense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in half of their games. Minnesota has kept only three opponents under 20 points and over the last seven games they’ve allowed 28 or more five times. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUF Two of the best teams in the NFL face off Monday night as the 7-4 Bills host the 8-4 Patriots. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve won and covered six straight games with five of those victories coming by at least 18 points. But tonight is easily the Patriots’ toughest matchup of the season, let alone since they got hot. Having not played since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. Conversely, New England is yet to have a bye (they are off next week). So that would really seem to favor the home team. We know that the Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but those wins have been against the Jets, Texans, Chargers, Panthers and Falcons. Only one of those five (Chargers) has a winning record. Three of the other four are among the worst teams in the league. With a visit to Tampa Bay scheduled for next week and a future visit to New England also on the docket, tonight is “must win” for the Bills at home. It should be a fired-up crowd and after being embarrassed (41-15 by the Colts) in their last home game, Buffalo is going to look to make a “statement” Monday night. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS We know the Rams have lost three in a row. But we can’t see them struggling to beat a 2-9 Jacksonville outfit that has not cleared 17 points in any of its last five games. Despite being only 1.5 point home dogs, the Jaguars lost last week 21-14 to the Falcons. That was their third straight loss since a stunning 9-6 win over the Bills in Week 9. The Rams' last three losses have all been to winning teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers), which doesn’t make it any better, especially because they closed as favorites in all three games. Going back even further, LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. But this has all the makings of a “get well” game for the NFC West contingent. The Jags are second to last in offense at 15.7 points/game. The Rams average 27.2 points/game and that’s when facing better competition than they’ll see on Sunday. Against sub-.500 teams, LA is 5-0 this year with the average win coming by 16.2 points. This is their firs game at home since acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham. It should be an inspired effort. Jacksonville has lost 15 straight non-conference games and knows its season is basically “over” at this point. We don’t expect the underdog to put up much resistance in this one. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA Minnesota needs to string a couple wins together or they run the risk of falling out of playoff contention. Fortunately, the Vikings are facing the winless Lions this week. Coming up short in San Francisco last week leaves the Vikes at 5-6 SU overall. All six losses have been one-possession games, four by four points or less and two in overtime. As for Detroit, they just let their best chance at a win slip away on Thanksgiving, losing 16-14 to the Bears. The Lions have also dropped four games by four points or less. One was at Minnesota, 19-17 in Week 5, which came down to a last second FG. We don’t think the rematch will be quite as close as the Vikings should be “out for blood” this Sunday. Look for WR Jefferson to have a big game as not only was he named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, but he had seven catches for 124 yards in the first meeting. This terrible Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1. Neither team will have its starting RB. But Detroit has lost eight straight times to Minnesota, a streak that goes all the way back to 2017. Dan Campbell is not the man for the job nor is Jared Goff. Lay the number is this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK STATE #5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP. While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTAH It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It’s not the most attractive matchup on Monday night, but we like the Seahawks to cover against the Washington Football Team. While Seattle is a very disappointing 3-7, this is a game they can certainly win. Last week, the ‘Hawks were favored to beat 9-2 Arizona. We know that game was at home and the Cardinals didn’t have Kyler Murray. But it’s certainly a bit jarring to see them go from being favored to beat the team with the best record in the league to underdogs against a 4-6 Football Team. Now Washington has won two straight. One of those was against Tampa Bay. Then they went on the road to upset Carolina last week. But the Football Team is still a subpar outfit. Seattle might have some injuries, but they have Russell Wilson. They also have the highest win percentage in the history of Monday Night Football, including 11 wins in the past 14 appearances. We see this as a classic buy low spot on the Seahawks, who are the better team. We’re getting a good number as the lookahead line had them favored by 3.5 points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JAX Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Panthers -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAR Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-27-21 | Maryland -1.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 40-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARYLAND You’ve got two 5-6 teams facing off in a regular season finale. That means the winner gets to be bowl eligible while the loser is done for the year. Maryland has not covered a single Big 10 game this season. So the fact they have a chance to be bowl eligible seems pretty fortunate. Their two conference wins were by three over Indiana and by three over Illinois. The past six losses have all been by 17 or more points. But we’re taking them against a Rutgers team whose only two Big 10 victories happen to be at the expense of Indiana and Illinois. The Scarlet Knights, who haven’t won a conference game at home since 2017, were shutout 28-0 last week by Penn State. That was the third time in five games that they didn’t score more than seven points. Other than a 38-3 win at Indiana, Rutgers has not scored more than 20 points in any Big 10 game this year. They just don’t have enough offense to be taken seriously. Six of the last eight games have seen the Scarlet Knights score 13 or less. Maryland QB Tagovailoa had three straight 350+ yard games before running into Michigan last Saturday. All the Terps offense needs here is 21 points and that seems pretty attainable. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB -13.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB AAA |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-25-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO At one time, Buffalo looked to be the best team in the NFL. Three losses in the last five games have really tempered enthusiasm though. Yet we still believe in the team from upstate NY. The Bills have the league’s second best point differential at +119. Their top ranked defense was shredded on Sunday by Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored five touchdowns. But that was a very misleading 41-15 final score. What if we told you that the Bills gained more yards per play than the Colts in that game? They did. The problem was they were -4 in the turnover battle. We think they bounce back Thanksgiving Night against the reeling Saints. New Orleans has lost three in a row. They were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles on Sunday in a 40-29 loss. Trevor Siemian, filling in for an injured Jameis Winston, is not getting it done at quarterback. The injuries are starting to pile up in the Big Easy as TE Trautman is out 4-6 weeks and OT Young will have season-ending foot surgery. The Saints are pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. Buffalo, who is 3-0 ATS off a straight up loss this year, is the only team in the league to be top three in both scoring offense and defense. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NIU The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -5 | Top | 37-41 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAC Ben Roethlisberger passed COVID-19 protocols on Saturday and the expectation is that he will start tonight. But the Steelers aren’t a very good team. Without Big Ben, they tied the Lions last week in a very ugly game. While their record is 5-3-1, the Steelers have been outscored. We mentioned last week that none of their five wins this year have come by more than eight points. So they are probably a bit lucky to have a winning record coming into this game with the Chargers, who are looking to bounce back from a loss to Minnesota that leaves them at 5-4. The Chargers also have a slightly negative point differential on the year. But they’ve impressed us more as they’ve played only one bad game (at Baltimore). West coast teams usually have the edge in night games. The Steelers are banged up on the defensive side of the ball (no TJ Watt) while the Chargers may be getting Joey Bosa back. The Steelers average only 18.3 points/game on the road. The Chargers average 27.3 points/game. Justin Herbert is simply a much better QB than Big Ben at this stage of the game. Herbert will take advantage of that banged up Steelers defense. Lay the points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEA It’s looking like Kyler Murray won’t play for Arizona. That’s bad news for a Cardinals team that lost last week to Carolina, 34-10. If Murray can’t go, then Colt McCoy will again be at the helm. McCoy suffered a pectoral injury in the loss last week, so Arizona is really banged up at QB. They’ve also lost two of their last three games after a 7-0 start. Now Seattle obviously has its own set of problems as they are 3-6 and were shut out by the Packers 17-0 last week. Russell Wilson’s return to the lineup proved to be a real ‘dud’, but at least he’s back. Wilson threw two interceptions in the end zone against the Packers, which really proved to be the difference in the game. We expect Wilson will play a lot better this week in a game the Seahawks really “have to have.” The Seahawks’ offense scored 28 or more points in three of the first four weeks of the season, all with Wilson healthy. Having their starting QB back at the same time Arizona has major injury issues at the position is pretty fortuitous. We will take advantage of the situation here by taking the Seahawks, who are 36-15-4 ATS their last 55 games off a loss. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-21-21 | Lions +13 v. Browns | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT The Lions are still winless, but they covered for us last week in Pittsburgh. We had them as nine-point underdogs in a game that ended up being a 16-16 tie. Now that line came down, by a lot, when it was announced Ben Roethlisberger wouldn’t play for the Steelers. But no matter what number you got the Lions at, it was an ATS win. The opponent this week (Cleveland) doesn’t have a backup QB, but they are a mess (lost 45-7 at New England last week) and should not be this large of a favorite against anyone right now. The Browns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and one of the two games they covered was a three-point win. They did not cover the previous time they were double digit favorites (-13.5 vs. Houston). They have just two wins by more than 10 points this season. Meanwhile, as poor as this season has gone for the Lions, they’ve lost by more than 10 points only three times. They are 5-1 ATS when getting four or more points and have covered three straight road games. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 9* on HAWAII We can’t see a Colorado State team that’s lost four straight games and has no shot at a bowl performing very well out in Hawaii this week. The home team is 2-0-1 ATS as a dog in Honolulu this year. That record could be 3-0 ATS depending on your closing line for the San Diego State game. The Rainbow Warriors are on a three-game losing streak themselves, but unlike CSU, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they win the final two games. This is also the final home game of the year, which is always a special atmosphere. Injuries are starting to pile up for the visitors and the defense just gave up over 500 yards last week in a loss to Air Force. Hawaii is the healthier team at this juncture of the season and has a winning record at home. The only team that Colorado State has beaten on the road is New Mexico, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Oregon, despite being the #3 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, is an underdog this week at Utah. We agree with the linesmakers on this one. The Utes are #23 in the country, so they’re obviously a team to be respected. They average (ever so slightly) more points per game than do the Ducks. They give up only slightly more. The number of yards gained per game by the two offenses is nearly identical. The Utes have scored 34 or more points each of their last six games. So, despite what the rankings say, you’ve got two pretty identical teams here. Both offenses will look to establish the run. But Utah has the home field edge. They’ve won 17 of their last 18 games in Salt Lake City. In the last three head to head meetings between Utah and Oregon, whomever has been at home has won. Oregon has lost a game in the month of November each of the previous six seasons. If you’re like us and you don’t think that the Ducks are going to make the Playoff, then it stands to reason that this is the game they are likely to lose. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-20-21 | Washington -6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington has had a rough couple of weeks with coach Jimmy Lake being fired. The Huskies are 4-6 and one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. But they can still make a bowl game if they win out for interim coach Bob Gregory, who previously served as defensive coordinator. Such motivation does not exist in Boulder where Colorado is 3-7 following a 44-20 defeat at the hands of UCLA last week. Two key players - LB Gustav and WR Lemonious-Craig - both suffered season-ending injuries in that game. So a bad team just got worse. Since joining the Pac 12, the Buffaloes have beaten UW just one time - back in 2019 as 14-point underdogs. Prior to that, it had been seven consecutive double digit losses by an average of 28.9 points/game. Washington seemingly was on its way to a win over Arizona State last week before giving away the game in the fourth quarter. The defense has allowed the second fewest yards in the Pac 12. We think the Huskies keep their bowl hopes alive with a big win on Saturday. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-21 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -35.5 | Top | 16-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in the country, heads to Lexington this week to face a Kentucky team that was once ranked as high as #11. NMSU just got done facing another SEC team, Alabama, and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. The Aggies lost 59-3 and thus didn’t even cover as 50.5 point underdogs. It’s been a long season in Las Cruces as the team is 1-9 and that one win was against South Carolina State, who is not even a FBS program. The nine games versus FBS foes have not only all resulted in defeat, but seven of them have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Kentucky started the year at 7-0 (this is when they were ranked 11th), but then lost to Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee. They got back in the win column last week with a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. That game was 31-3 at halftime. The Wildcats are on a 14-game win streak against non-conference teams and are done with SEC play for the year. Because they are honoring the 22 seniors beforehand, UK will be “up” for this game. A defense that’s quite good could pitch a shutout here. The offense will have no problem scoring 40 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -15 | Top | 35-19 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Our view is that Louisiana Tech should roll in this Friday night Conference USA battle. Their opponent, Southern Miss, is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Golden Eagles have just one win all year and that was against a FCS school (Grambling) back in September. Eight of their nine losses this year have been by double digits, five of them coming by 24 points or greater. USM did hang tough last week in a surprising showing at UTSA. But they used a “gimmicky” offense to do so and it resulted in their best player (RB Frank Gore Jr) getting injured. The offense still only gained 189 yards vs. UTSA and would have lost by 17 if not for the defense returning an interception for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech at least has some confidence after beating Charlotte 42-32 last week. This is their final home game, so the Bulldogs should be plenty motivated to go out and win big. They are 12-5 ATS following a straight up win. Louisiana Tech had over 500 yards of offense last week and a similar effort is quite possible tonight, which would likely mean a comfortable victory. Play on LOUISIANA TECH AAA |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NE It seems safe to say that all signs point to a New England blowout tonight. The Patriots have won their last four games by a combined 100 points. They beat Cleveland 45-7 on Sunday, outgaining the Browns 2:1 and not allowing any points after the opening drive. Going on the road has not been a problem for these Patriots as they are 4-0 SU away from Foxboro with those four wins coming by an average of 10.5 points/game. Atlanta is 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home. They just got beat 43-3 in Dallas. Their top receiver Calvin Ridley is out and running back Cordarrelle Patterson is a game-time decision. Even if Patterson plays, we expect the Falcons offense to be ineffective in this game. They are 25th in scoring and 29th in rush yards. It doesn’t help that the defense is also 29th in points allowed. Though the 4-5 record doesn’t seem bad, Atlanta has been outscored by 85 points this year. This is a top five team against a bottom five team. Lay the points. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |