Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon -7 | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oregon. |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford -6 | Top | 16-45 | Win | 100 | 78 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford. |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 508 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Alabama. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -110 | 504 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER Oklahoma. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin v. USC -3.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on USC. |
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12-30-15 | Memphis v. Auburn -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Auburn. |
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12-26-15 | Tulsa v. Virginia Tech -13.5 | Top | 52-55 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia Tech. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -1.5 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on San Diego State. |
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12-23-15 | Boise State v. Northern Illinois +8.5 | Top | 55-7 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois. |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky. |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 149 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa. |
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12-05-15 | USC v. Stanford -4 | Top | 22-41 | Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford. |
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12-05-15 | Florida +17.5 v. Alabama | Top | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida. |
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12-04-15 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Bowling Green. |
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11-28-15 | Notre Dame v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 36-38 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on Stanford. |
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11-28-15 | Ohio State +1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. |
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11-26-15 | Texas Tech v. Texas -2 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas. |
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11-20-15 | Air Force v. Boise State -12.5 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -106 | 105 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boise State. |
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11-07-15 | Arizona State +1 v. Washington State | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -106 | 125 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU +11.5 | Top | 60-40 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on SMU. |
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10-17-15 | Michigan State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 142 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State. |
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10-16-15 | UNLV v. Fresno State +3 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Fresno State. |
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10-15-15 | Western Kentucky v. North Texas +28 | Top | 55-28 | Win | 110 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on North Texas. |
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10-15-15 | Auburn -1 v. Kentucky | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Auburn. |
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10-10-15 | Michigan State -17 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State. |
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10-03-15 | Purdue v. Michigan State -24 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State. |
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10-03-15 | Minnesota +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Minnesota. |
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09-26-15 | Ball State +18 v. Northwestern | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ball State. |
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09-26-15 | BYU v. Michigan -4 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. |
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09-26-15 | Central Michigan v. Michigan State -28.5 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State. |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +16.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Oregon State. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +5.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Louisville. |
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09-12-15 | Oregon +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon. |
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09-12-15 | South Florida v. Florida State -28.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech +1.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Louisiana Tech. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +11 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 792 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Virginia Tech. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue v. Marshall -7 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 744 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Marshall. |
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09-05-15 | Arkansas State v. USC -28 | Top | 6-55 | Win | 100 | 733 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on USC. |
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09-05-15 | BYU v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 725 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Nebraska. |
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09-03-15 | Michigan +6 v. Utah | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 683 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. |
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09-03-15 | Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 682 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Western Kentucky. |
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09-03-15 | South Carolina -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 724 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on South Carolina. |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +10 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 531 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Ohio State. I chose Ohio State to win the Big Ten and while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Buckeyes will come to play today and expect them to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I also picked the Tide to win the SEC as Alabama comes to New Orleans on an eight-game win streak. Alabama endured a grueling schedule and survived some close calls along the way. The Tide allowed just 16.6 PPG this year, which is fourth in the Nation. But Alabama is about to run smack dab into the middle of the Buckeyes high octane offense, a unit which used a 59-0 destruction of Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game to punch its ticket to the semi finals of the inaugural College Football playoff. I don’t care who is under center for Ohio State, this is an offense that is running like a well oiled-machine and I absolutely think that Alabama is in for a big surprise today. The Buckeyes have battled through so much adversity this year that it’s not even funny, I think OHIO STATE keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +10 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 527 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Florida State. I played this line pretty much right when it came out and got 9.5 and it’s since come down a bit from then, but regardless, with more than a month off to prepare for Oregon’s high-octane offense, I think the FSU defense will prove to be a difference maker today and expect the Seminoles to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This game features the countries top two QB’s, the Ducks Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this season, while FSU’s Jameis Winston won it last year. Mariota was clearly the best QB in 2014, but the fact remains that Winston has not lost a single game in two years. Florida State though would finish with a 3-10 record ATS, which I think helped in inflating this line. The Ducks would lose early, but Oregon’s overall difficulty of schedule is the reason for its No. 1 ranking. Florida State was deceptively good this year though, it’s never easy to win at this level, but note that the Noles finished 29th in points per game and 30th in scoring defense. Florida State has won in shootouts and in defensive affairs, it’s ability to adapt to any situation is a big reason why the team is undefeated in two years. Oregon finished one spot ahead of FSU in scoring defense, but I think will be surprised today by the Seminoles versatility on the offensive side of the ball. While I won’t be so bold to predict an outright upset, I do think that FLORIDA STATE has the necessary weapons to hang with the Ducks and look for this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 505 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe that this is too many points to be giving up and expect Georgia Tech to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a matchup of strength vs. strength, as the Yellow Jackets high-octane triple-option offense takes on the hard-nosed defense of the Runnin Rebels. Mississippi State was dominant on the defensive side of the ball, but was not tested by anything like what Georgia Tech brings to the offensive table. The Yellow Jackets will be running today, and the team uses mismatches and clever offensive sets to get consistent production on almost every drive, ultimatley posting a ridiculous 333.6 yards of offense per game average on the ground this year. In all, fourteen players have recorded a carry for the team and twelve of those have at least 100 yards. However, if the defense cheats, then QB Justin Thomas can burn it through the air, the sophomore tallied 17 TD’s with just five INTs in 175 attempts. As good as the Bulldogs defense is, I have a hard time seeing their offense keeping pace. I like Georgia Tech to turn up the pressure early and while Mississippi State may in the end pull out the victory, I definitely expect this one to come down to the wire, indeed making the savvy move on the YELLOW JACKETS. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss v. TCU -3 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 497 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on TCU. I think TCU brings more to the table in this matchup and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. TCU is the No. 2 scoring offense in the country. Mississippi has the FBS No. 1 ranked defense. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength. However, I think the Horned Frogs’ defense has a big opportunity to make some noise today as well and ultimately think that Mississippi will finally stumble after having to play catch-up all day long. TCU is choked after getting passed over in the inaugural College Footbal Playoff and I think it takes its frustrations out on Mississippi, the Horned Frogs would rout Iowa State 55-3 on December 6th, an effort not good enough in the committee’s eyes to secure a position: “We feel like this is a playoff game," said coach Gary Patterson enthusiastically last week. "Ole Miss was as high as third in the nation, they play at a very high level." The Rebels were rolling, but a loss to LSU on October 25th, and a 35-31 setback to Auburn a week later, as well as losing star receiver Laquon Treadwell to injury, all culminated in Mississippi’s national title hopes going up in flames. The Rebels would then also go on to lose 30-0 at Arkansas in their next SEC game, but would in the end finally recover to beat Mississippi State 31-17 in the Egg Bowl in its finale. It’s very important to note that Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace struggled down the stretch without Treadwell, completing just 55 percent of his passes with five TDs and five INTs in the final five games, after throwing 17 TDs and averaging 9.1 YPA during his team’s 7-0 start. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, after taking all of the above situational and motivational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to TCU as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on BYU. As you can guess by the point-spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I ultimately think that the Cougars proficiency on the offensive end will prove to be too much for the Tigers and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Both teams come in with plenty of momentum, Memphis has won six straight games and has to be enjoying the lime light right now, it’s the team’s first bowl game since 1998. BYU comes in having won four straight games and six of its last nine bowl appearances and will be eager to atone for last year’s 31-16 loss to Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength, as BYU sports a high-scoring offense vs. Memphis’ stingy defensive unit. The Cougars average 36 points and 463 yards per game, while the Tigers are giving up just 17.1 points and 343 yards per game: “We don’t overlook a team," said BYU receiver Jordan Leslie earlier in the week. "When you look at their defense, it is a top-ranked defense. I mean, that’s a challenge for us. Our defense looking at their offense is just as much of a challenge. You can’t look at the name-brand of a team, because any team any year can be successful. They are 9-3 and their losses are against ranked teams and Houston. That’s a tough schedule. To have an opportunity to go 10-3 - that’s a great team." I think we’re getting great value here though, I am expecting BYU to set the tone early and it will be hard for Memphis to play catchup. In this case, great offense trumps great defense in my opinion, grab as many points as you can with BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -20.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Boise State. For a number of different reasons I like the Broncos to put their foot on the gas and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing SU/ATS victory. A win today and Boise State will punch its ticket to a New Year’s Day bowl, definitely added incentive which we can take advantage of. The Broncos certainly come in with momentum, they’ve won seven straight, including a 37-27 home victory over Fresno State back on October 17th. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked here either in my opinion. Note that Boise State has averaged 53.2 points in five games since defeating the Bulldgos and is coming off an epic 50-19 beatdown of Utah State last week, RB Jay Ajayi ran for 229 yards and five TD’s. Fresno State would start the season 0-3 and got back to .500 before again losing three in a row, but would then win three straight to clinch the conference’s West Division with last week’s 28-21 win over Hawaii, finishing 6-6 overall. While the Bulldogs have looked much better of late, they certainly aren’t on the same level as the Broncos and I think the visitors will have a lot of trouble containing Ajayi, who ranks third in the country in yards from scrimmage per game at 179.6 (note that Freno State ranks 10th in the 12-team conference in giving up 468.9 yards from scrimmage). In every way this is a mismatch, in my opinion this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on BOISE STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Florida State. For a number of different reasons I think that FSU will put it all together today and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It hasn’t been an easy year for the Seminoles and they’ve dropped a couple places in the College Football Playoff rankings after some lackluster efforts, but I think that FSU can knock off the No. 12 Yellow Jackets today and punch its ticket to the playoffs as it tries to defend its national championship. It’s not easy to win every single game, but guess what? Florida State just completed its first back-to-back undefeated regular seasons in school history after last week’s 24-19 victory over Florida last Saturday. Beating the Yellow Jackets won’t be easy, GT has won five in a row including a 30-24 victory over Georgia in its regular season finale. The Yellow Jackets will try to confuse the Seminoles with their triple-option offense, but FSU has done pretty well against run-heavy teams in Florida, Boston College and Miami already. The only question for me is whether or not QB Jameis Winston will be ready to go today or not, and after carefully analyzing the situation, I firmly believe he will. Despite a couple of shaky efforts, note that Florida State is 3-2 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while Georgia Tech is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Missouri v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Alabama. I chose Alabama to win the SEC this year. For a number of different reasons, I think the Tide will roll today, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. With a victory Alabama will punch its ticket to the inaugural NCAAF Playoff, added incentive for the Tide after last year’s disappointing end: “I think we have an outstanding league and we have a lot of good teams and the fact that we play each other and end up beating each other probably hurts a little bit," Alabama coach Nick Saban said earlier in the week. "I think some of the teams in our division are really, really good teams and I'm sure there are some other really good teams out there that I have not seen. Without looking at everyone, I would think that somebody in our league qualifies to be one of the better four teams in the country based on the quality of the league and the good teams that we all have to play." Alabama comes in with momentum as well after beating No. 15 Auburn 55-44 last Saturday. Missouri would secure its spot in the title game with a hard-fought 21-14 victory over Arkansas last Friday. Alabama is known for its tough defensive play, but after last weeks’ shootout, there’s no question that this is a Tide team which can move the ball quickly; expect Alabama to run the no-huddle: "I think it's scary for them," Tide safety Nick Perry said. "Usually `Bama beats you with defense and running the ball. Now, we can play a whole different type of game. We can put up points or we can shut them down with defense. I think that's scary for other teams." QB Blake Sims has 2,988 passing yards and not surprisingly, the Tide rank 21st nationally in passing offense with an average of 282.6 per game. Missouri didn’t look overly impressive in its victory last weekend as it fell behind 14-3 in the second quarter and then managed to claw back with 18 unanswered points. Also note that the Tigers were destroyed 59-42 in last year’s SEC championship game vs. Auburn, a team which the Tide just handled. To walk the heavenly streets of gold, you have to know the password: Roll Tide Roll! With a chance to cement its unquestionable dominance over the SEC once again, I like ALABAMA to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Northern Illinois. For a number of different reasons I believe that Northern Illinois will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and the MAC Championship title. This is a revenge game for NIU after Bowling Green took last season’s crown. Neither of these teams are the same ones from last year, but somehow each managed to navigate through the regular season to this point; note that BG finished 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference, while NIU was 10-2 overall and 7-1 in league play. Bowling Green got the job done with tough defensive play in 2013, but the unit has slipped to below average in the MAC, which I believe will spell doom today vs. this explosive Huskies offense. Also note that Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson, who threw for five TD’s in last year’s Championship game, obviously won’t be participating today after he was lost in the first outing of the year vs. Western Kentucky. Northern Illinois couldn’t get the job done last year with QB Jordan Lynch, but the Huskies have gotten progressively better on both sides of the ball as the season has worn on and I believe will prove to be just too much for the Falcons to repeat this year. Note that NIU ranks fifth in the MAC in total scoring offense and fourth in total scoring defense. The Huskies have also allowed the least sacks in the conference and have produced the third most overall; NIU is also second in third-down conversion percentage and first in turnover differential. Northern Illinois QB Drew Hare had some pretty big shoes to fill, but he’s thrown for 15 TD’s vs. a single INT has posted seven rushing major scores as well. Bowling Green made it back to the championship game by posting a 5-0 record vs. MAC East opposition, which is considered much weaker than the West (note that the Falcons were 0-3 vs. MAC West competition this season). As mentioned off the top, I think the difference will be BG’s inefficiences on the defensive end, it finished the year at the bottom of the MAC in pass defense, 10th in run defense and 12th in total defense. The Falcons’ offense is third overall in the MAC, but there’s no question that NIU can match pace with this team. Note that Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Bowling Green is just 1-2 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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11-29-14 | San Jose State +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST SIDE DESTRUCTION on San Jose State. San Diego State is 6-5 and is bowl eligible. At 3-8, the Spartans will just be playing for pride today. The last time these teams met, SDSU would have to hold on for a 34-30 victory and I firmly believe that we’ll see a similar outcome in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Spartans have lost five straight, but with QB Mitch Ravizza set to make his first collegiate start, I think the visitors come to play today; this is Ravizza’s audition for him to earn a role next year. Ravizza’s playbook should be a bit bigger this week as well and I think can catch the Aztecs off guard (note that San Jose State is actually fifth in the conference in total offense). The chances of SDSU advancing to the Mountain West championship game are pretty slim, not only does it have to win today, but it also has to hope that Hawaii upsets Fresno State. From a situational stand point, this selection is as solid as it gets. And from a trend based angle, the play gets even stronger as note that San Jose State is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while SDSU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the same points range. In my opinion, this is a few too many points to be giving up, play on SAN JOSE STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-27-14 | TCU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on TCU. No. 6 TCU is coming off a close victory against lowly Kansas before its bye week and must win and win big to impress for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The 9-1 Horned Frogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings after having to rally from a 10-point deficit vs. the Jayhawks for a 34-30 win on November 15th. So, barring a string of major upsets, TCU needs to close the regular season in dominant form to have a chance to get back into the top four (after today’s game it plays Iowa in its finale on December 6th): "Our job is to keep our nose down and to finish the journey. That's what we're trying to get accomplished," coach Gary Patterson assessed earlier in the week. TCU is also gunning for a Big 12 title, competing with Baylor and K-State and to keep its five game win skein in tact, it will have to end Texas’ three-game win streak. Texas comes in off a 28-7 win over Oklahoma State on November 15th, becoming bowl eligible under first year head coach Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have certainly looked pretty good over the last month, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, the Horned Frogs have one of the Big 12’s most dynamic offensive units, led by Trevone Boykin. In fact, TCU’s 45.9 PPG trail only Baylor’s 50.0 in the FBS, and its whopping 541.6 YPG ranks it in the Top five. Note that this also sets up as a revenge game for TCU after it had to deal with poor weather conditions, which caused a delay of almost four-hours, in a 30-7 home loss to the Longhorns back on October 26th, 2013. As good as Texas has been in November, the situational factors are clearly working in TCU’s favor; note that the Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six following a bye week. And note that Texas is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, all signs point to a blowout, play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio. The Battle of The Bricks gets ready to renew tonight, the Miami RedHawks are going to be honoring 13 seniors, but when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the Bobcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then Ohio has to be loving its chances today as it’s won seven of the last eight in the series. The ramifactions of these two teams meeting this year is not overly consequential, but at 5-6, the Bobcats still desperately need one more win to become bowl eligible for the sixth straight season. The RedHawks would love to play spoiler obviously, but I simply can’t see the team being able to handle OU’s running attack, AJ Ouellette leads Ohio with seven TD’s and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts. QB Derrius Vick is a dual threat and that spells bad news for Miami Ohio, which has struggled all season with mobile pivots. In fact, the RedHawks have gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, allowing an average of 245 rushing yards in November. Miami is a tough team at home and has a dangerous passing attack, but the situational edge still definitely lies with the visitors. From a trend based stand point, the Bobcats also get the nod; note that Ohio is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite, while Miami Ohio is just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the short points, play on the BOBCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Colorado. I think the Buffs can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel is a healthy amount of points they’ve been afforded here. Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks are inching their way closer in reaching the College Football Playoffs, but I think come in a bit complacent as the team enjoys senior day and all the festivities and hype surrounding the event. Note that Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game and is currently ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. I’m not going to try and convince you that Colorado is a good team, obviously it’s horrible, but I do think this a prime situational play and this is way too many points to be giving up. Note that Mariota is likely going to be forced to work with a new center today as Hroniss Grasu suffered a leg injury in the Ducks’ 51-27 win at then No. 20 Utah on November 8th. Also note that Oregon will be without the services of TE Pharaoh Brown, who was injured in the Utah win as well. Colorado is unsure at this point who will get the start under center, but one man to keep your eyes on is Nelson Spruce, the WR is tied for fourth in the country with 11 TD receptions and is seventh overall with 1,091 yards. One thing we can count on today from the Buffs while they’re on offesnse is a steady dose of the run game, not only because they are averaging 172.9 yards per contest in Pac-12 contests (good enough for third in the conference), but also so as to limit Oregon’s time of possession. Note, already 4-3 ATS this year as an underdog, Colorado is also 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents. And note that Oregon is already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 31 points or more this season and just 5-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs point to COLORADO as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Akron. This is a must-win game for Akron as it stil has bowl hopes, it’s coming off four straight SU losses and six straight ATS setbacks. Suffice it to say, I think the Zips take care of business at home tonight. Conversely, Massachusetts will not be going to a bowl game unless it sweeps out and gets some help, and while it’s won three of its last four SU, it’s been a covering machine all year, it comes into this contest having covered six-straight games. While Akron would secure the 14-13 win over UMass last season, it failed to cover the 7 point spread and this fact makes today’s play even stronger in my opinion. For the most part I am a situational handicapper, but one of the other main factors that I like to take advantage of are lop-sided trends and numbers and in this case, there’s no question that all signs point to Akron has the savvy move here. And from a trend based stand point, this play is super strong as well, not that Massachusetts is 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while Akron is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses. As I’ve mentioned many times already, I think this is a great situational play on AKRON. AAA Sports |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC SUPER-BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech. Duke is 8-1 overall and 4-1 in league play, while Virginia Tech is 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference action. While the Hokies will not be competing for the conference crown, they are still bowl hopeful, meaning that every game from this point on is almost a must win and it’s because of this fact that I think they’ll keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think this will be a one possession game in the end, this sets up perfectly as a letdown spot for Duke I think. This is the opener of a three-game home stand for the Blue Devils vs. teams that are a combined 10-17 right now. "They're for real," Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said yesterday. "Certainly for real." But as I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and this also sets up as a revenge game for the Hokies after Duke came into Lane Stadium to win 13-10 last year. I also think that Duke gets caught looking ahead to rival North Carolina on Thursday night, which will end the run of three games in a 13-day span for the home side. The visitors have something to build off, VT would outscore BC 21-10 in the final frame on November 1st, but it would not be enough in the 33-31 finale (you’ll remember that I had the OVER in that contest). Note that the Hokies have not dropped four straight in the ACC since joining the confernece in 2004 and have never lost five ACC games in a single season: “I hate losing," VT senior wide receiver Willie Byrn said earlier in the week. "The way it will be salvaged is if we learn something from it. I hate hearing people saying we're going to be great next year. The seniors put so much work into it." And note that Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think the conditions are definitely right for the HOKIES to escape with at least an ATS cover today. AAA Sports |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -1 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on East Carolina. I played this game the moment it came out and got a favorable -1 line, it’s climbed since then, however I still love it. East Carolina will look to move back atop the AAC on Friday after its five-game winning streak was snapped to Temple on November 1st, losing five fumbles and committing 12 penalties in a sloppy, windy and rainy 20-10 road setback. It was a freak loss, if we dig a little deeper we see that there is some definite room to read between the lines as the Pirates would outgain the Owls by 293 yards and collect 30 first downs compared to Temple’s 10. Cincinnati on the other hand would trash Tulane 38-14 on October 31st and has three straight wins of at least 17 points (note though that it’s come over teams in the bottom half of the conference). Ultimately though, I think after their last debacle that the Pirates come to play today, QB Shane Carden was held to a season-low 217 yards and was held without a TD throw for the first time since last year’s regular-season finale. For the home side, starting QB Gunner Kiel is still injured, meaning that Munchie Legaux will earn another start today. Legaux likes to get out of the pocket and run when he can, but note that East Carolina ranks eighth in the FBS in run defense and has held its last six opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Note that East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons off a loss vs. a conference foe, while Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing the role of underdog. I look for Carden and company to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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11-11-14 | Toledo +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Toledo. These teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it’s going to come down to a one score outcome and therefore definitely feel that the value lies in grabbing the points. Toledo is bowl eligible at 6-3 but will look to keep the momentum rolling, seeking a third straight victory today. While the Rockets have been winning, note they haven’t been covering; suffice it to say, I think that changes this week. Toledo is coming off a 7 point win over Massachusetts and a 10 point victory over Kent State. NIU is 7-2 and has won three-straight. The Huskies employ a run-first offense, Cameron Stingily has 625 yards on the ground with eight TD’s. QB Drew Hare can also get out of the pocket. NIU is one dimensional on offense, while Toledo is much more balanced, the team averages 250 on the ground and another 250 through the air, averaging a whopping 34 PPG. The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside who has 1,700 yards and 14 major score. Toledo has faced some incredibily stiff competition out of conference, which makes them that much more dangerous in MAC play in my opinion. From a trend based stand point, this is definitely a solid play, note that Toledo is 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Northern Illinois is already 1-2 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival. Obviously I feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can with TOLEDO. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern -1 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -106 | 139 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Northwestern. Both teams come in struggling, they have a combined seven total wins and four Big Ten victories. Each is still bowl eligible though and I think the home side comes to play today. While Michigan has won two if its last three, note that both of those victories came at home against weak opponents. The home side definitely comes in desperate, it’s off three straight losses, including a 41-point blowout defeat at Iowa last weekend. Michigan actually has a decent defense, but Northwestern’s offense will benefit greatly today in playing in front of the home town crowd, a place where it’s played well at times this year. Neither of these teams is very good, in fact, they are very evenly matched, but from a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid selection; note that Michigan is already 1-2 ATS on the road this year and 5-8 ATS in the same position over the last two; and note that Northwestern is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 vs. conference opponents. All signs point to a one possession game with NORTHWESTERN coming out on top. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS SUPER BLOWOUT on UTSA. While I won’t call for an outright win here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and look for the Roadrunners to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the red hot Rice Owls have a letdown here, just enough of one for the hungry Roadrunners to take advantage of. UTSA is coming off an embarrassing 34-0 setback at home to UTEP. After three straight losses, Rice has now won five straight, most recently a 31-17 decision on the road against FIU. Desperation breeds motivation though and this also sets up as a revenge game after Rice beat UTSA 27-21 in San Antonio last year. I won’t try to convince you that the Roadrunners are a good team, obviously they aren’t, offensively they’ve been a train wreck of late, but I simply feel this is a great situational play. Defensively though UTSA has been stellar, it’s fourth in the conference in total yards and scoring offense (and that is despite losing 34-0 to UTEP last week, still managing to hold the Miners to 351 yards of total offense). And the Owls aren’t one of the best offensive teams in the conference, they average 31.4 PPG, ranking sixth. Defensively the Owls are sound, ranked fifth in the league, but as I said, I think the conditions are right for a mental lapse this weekend; note that UTSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 points range, while Rice is 0-1 ATS as a home fave in the same price range. Grab as many point as you can in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State. What’s happened to the Cowboys? Oklahoma State opened the year at No. 15 and has since fallen to an unranked position in the polls after back to back losses. K-State comes into this contest as No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. So can OK State rally here, find a way to get the job done and pull off the upset?! I’m not going to go out on a limb and call for the outright upset here, but I do definitely feel that the Cowboys will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I jumped on the line when it first came out at +14, it’s since dropped, but I still do love this selection. The Cowboys have obviously been struggling, but I think there is room to read between the lines; note that OK State’s defense has in fact been better than anticipated. Creating turnovers, something the team excelled at last year in forcing 2.5 per contest, will be crucial for the visitors to keep this one close. If the Cowboys can force two or three, I feel they do in fact have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, K-State QB Jake Waters is on a big roll right now. But, the Cowboys have some weapons of their own, receiver James Washington is a game-changer. From a motivational standpoint, this is definitely a big game for OK State; obviously an outright victory would be a huge mental boost for the university, but it would also mean that the team would be come bowl eligible with games vs. Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma remaining. I also believe that this sets up as a bit of a “lookahead” spot for the home side, the team is already bowl eligible and still has to play three ranked teams, ALL of which are on the road. Note Okahoma State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two years as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while K-State is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points ranges. Grab as many points as you can, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the COWBOYS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Florida +13 v. Georgia | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida. I think the Gators keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge scenario, the Bulldogs have won three straight in the series after last year’s 23-20 victory. The Bulldogs will be without the services of RB Todd Gurley of course, it hasn’t mattered of late though as Georgia has rallied for back-to-back victories behind an opportunistic defense. The Gators are reeling, but I think come to play here today, Florida coach Will Muschamp’s job is on the line and desperation often brings out the best in teams and that will be the case today I feel. “It’s a critical game,” Muschamp said earlier in the week. “It’s an East rival. It’s an SEC rival. It’s a rival of the University of Florida. And it’s very important to our university.” The Gators will have to deal with Bulldogs’ QB Hutson Mason, who has been effecient this year with 10 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Nick Chubb has filled in decently for Gurley, averaging 172.5 yards per game in two starts in replacement. The visitors of course will be going with QB Treon Harris, in three career games he’s 12 of 18 for 263 yards and three TD’s with one INT. Harris will be looking early and often to WR Demarcus Robinson who has a team-high 34 catches, 524 receiving yards and four TDs. One other Gators’ player to keep your eyes on today is DE Alex McCalister, who has five tackles for a loss and a team-high four sacks. Note that Florida is 3-2 the last two seasons following a bye week, while Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -5.5 v. Louisville | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. I played the game early and got -5.5. It’s since come down to -3.5. Regardless, I still really love this play and look for FSU to punch one into the ATS win column tonight. It appears as if RB Karlos Williams will be available for this game, which is good news for the No. 2 Seminoles as they get ready to face the nation’s best defense. Williams leads the Seminoles with 82 carries, 378 rushing yards and seven TDs and he’s still 100% eligible to play in this one. So will this be a distraction for FSU? Hardly in my opinion. This program is used to this type of thing now after Jameis Winston’s issues last year, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has had multiple off-field issues, this team isn’t going to be phased whatsoever. In fact, I think it will be a rallying point this week and think Winston could have one of his most productive contests of the year so far. Louisville is a stout defense, it leads the nation in giving up just 245.8 YPG, but I think will have its hands full with Winston and company. FSU is playing for the first time since its thrilling 31-27 win over then No. 5 Notre Dame on October 18th. "We don't have anything to prove to anybody," said Winston, who is third in the country in completion percentage at 70.6. "We've just got to keep playing and hopefully things will go our way. But one thing we are consistently proving is that we are winners." Louisville has some talent on offense as well in WR DeVante Parker and RB Michael Dyer, but I think they’ll falter today against what I think is an underrated Seminoles defensive unit. I’m laying the points on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati. Neither of these teams are that good, but I think the home side’s passing offense will prove to be too much for the Bulls in the end and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. USF is 3-4, Cincinnati is 3-3. The Bulls are 2-1 in conference while the Bearcarts are 1-1 in league play. This is a “revenge” game as well for Cinncy though as USF pulled off the 26-20 upset last year. USF is coming off a 38-30 road win over Tulsa last week, it was a huge come from behind effort as it trailed 24-7 at halftime. The Bearcats are coming off a 41-3 road win over SMU last week, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. Offensively the Bulls are averageing just 311 yards per game, QB Mike White has completed only 47.6% of his passes for six TD’s and five INT’s. RB Marlon Mack is the focus of the offense, he has 727 yards and eight major scores so far. Note that four defensive players are questionable or out for the Bulls though. And that’s bad news for the visitors I think today; while Cincinnati’s defense is poor, it’s offense is ranked #38 in scoring. QB Gunner Kiel has completed almost 60% of his passes so far for 19 major scores and 6 INT’s. From a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid play as well, note that the Bearcats are 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. teams with losing records. I think this one turns into a track meet and the pass-happy home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night; play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina. I think UNC can catch Notre Dame a bit complacent here and like it to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Irish come into this game at 5-0 SU. UNC is just 2-3 and will have to start winning some games in a hurry if it has any shot at becoming bowl eligible. Long time clients and followers know that I am primarily a situational handicapper, but that I also like to exploit lop-sided trends and numbers, expecting these anomolies to “naturally correct” themselves. Therefore, it’s important to note that UNC is 0-5 ATS to open the year, while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS. UNC’s biggest issue has clearly been on the defensive side, but it catches a break here as the Fighting Irish are far from offensive juggernauts. UNC can put some points on the board, it will need to bring it’s “A” game today though vs. the stingy home side’s defensive unit. This also sets up as a classic “look ahead/letdown” spot for the Irish, who won’t be able to help themselves in thinking about next week’s matchup with top-ranked Florida State; this is definitely a crucial situational factor working on our side today as well. I think UNC does keep this one close, its dual-threat QB Marquise Williams will be a difference maker and while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do clearly believe this is way too many points to be giving up; play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -103 | 135 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh. Virginia has covered the spread in every game so far this year but I think will finally come up short here vs. the hungry visiting side; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. The Cavaliers are in position to make an early claim as division front-runners after an earlier upset of Louisville and close setbacks to No. 1 UCLA and No. 18 BYU. Virginia is 3-2 SU, including 1-0 in the ACC. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and 1-0 as well. But this sets up as a natural letdown/look ahead spot for Virginia with its bye week on the horizon. Pittsburgh is surely the “hungrier” team as well, it’s coming off back to back loss to Iowa and Akron which dampened its 3-0 start. Note that Virginia is hosting its first “night game” since 2012 here; also note that Pittsburgh beat Virgina 14-3 last season. I simply feel that the opportunistic Cavs defense will finally have its hands full today with Pitt RB James Conner; Conner is second in the nation with 791 rushing yards and leads the country with 135 carries. Another big question mark for Virginia is at QB; note, as of writing the team still has Greyson Lambert listed as questionable because of an ankle injury he suffered vs. BYU two weeks ago. Lambert wasn’t used in last week’s victory against Kent State, as sophomore Matt Johns stepped in and did an adequate job (finished 17 of 28 for 227 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s); in my opinion though, “adequate” won’t cut it today vs. Pittsburgh and if Lambert is able to go, I believe his injury will render him far less than 100%. I’m playing PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Kent State +24.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Kent State. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Northern Illinois and like the winless Golden Flashes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe. The Huskies return home after a long three game road trip and a bye week. Kent State is is 0-4 and will definitely be the “hungrier” team in this matchup. NIU was embarressed in its last game as well as Arkansas hammered it 52-14. Kent State’s run game is a weak point on offense, meaning it will have to throw the ball today to have any shot at the outright upset. That actually works in our favor, NIU is pretty good against the rush in allowing just 114 YPG. That means we can expect to see a lot of redshirt sophomore QB Colin Reardon who admittedly has been pretty mediocre to this point; Reardon will need some big plays from his receivers, namely James Brooks; Brooks and company have a big opportunity today though as NIU’s weakness on defense is definitely in the secondary, a unit which has already been beaten deep on several occasions this year. Kent State will have to run every now and then to keep the defense honest, look for Reardon to throw the ball to RB Nick Holley on some screens and dump offs. The Huskies definitely looked bad two weeks ago, QB Drew Hare was constantly under pressure and while he did finish with a decent QB rating, he failed to make any big or significant plays when they were needed. However, the entire team looked out of sorts. The Huskies will try to establish the run early and often, but the Golden Flashes are actually pretty good in stopping it. I’m not calling for the outright win today, but this is way too many points to be giving up in my opinion; all signs point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Kent State +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -106 | 134 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Kent State. Virginia may be off a loss to BYU, but the team has covered each week so far this season and suffice it to say, I believe that streak ends today. I think this sets up as a natural letdown sport for the home side as lowly Kent State comes to town for its final non-conference tilt. The ACC schedule is one littered with much stronger competition, I simply can’t see the Cavaliers not looking ahead this week. When this line opened, I jumped on it at 21.5. It’s since gone closer to 27. Regardless, I still really like this pick and think the Flashes can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded here. MAC teams have a history of giving Virginia difficulty, you only have to go back to last year when it lost 48-27 to Ball State in Charlottesville as an example. Kent State will be looking to bounce back after two home losses and then an embarrasing 66-0 loss at Ohio State. Offensively the Golden Flashes haven’t been spectacular, but certainly not horrible either, Colin Reardon has 553 yards and five TDs. Defensively the teams runs a 4-2-5, Cover 4 scheme which is led by athletic safety Nate Holley, who is top in the MAC with 13.7 tackles per game. Viriginia’s offense has been pretty good, the rotation of QB’s Greyson Lambert and Matt Johns has been pretty effective; defensively though the Cavs sure looked susceptible last week, they did not register a sack or create a turnover vs. BYU. I think this is a great spot for Kent State to come in under the radar, after the beat down by the Buckeyes, the team had last weekend off to focus and prepare: "Virginia is a very talented football team," said Coach Paul Haynes. "They’ve had a very tough schedule, playing 3 out of 4 ranked opponents and playing them well. So we’ll have a huge challenge this week, but our guys have a great attitude, we went back to a good worth ethic and our guys are looking forward to an ACC opponent." Note that Kent State is in fact 10-5 ATS its last 15 on the road, while Virginia is just 2-7 ATS its last nine as a favorite and a sub-par 7-11 ATS its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | Top | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Northwestern. I think 1-2 Northwestern keeps this one close enough to escape with a comfortable ATS cover. Penn State’s defense is its major strength, but other than that, this is a team with a lot of questions in all other facets and it’s these ineffeciencies which I feel the Wildcats can take advantage of this week. The Wildcats weakness is their run game. The Nittany Lions though will be susceptible to the pass I think, Northwestern senior QB Trevor Siemian will be given the green light today to air it out, so far he’s connected with 13 different receivers on the season, led by Cameraon Dickson, who has seven receptions for 129 yards. Defense is the one area where Penn State has a big advantage, and that’s why this spread is so large. However, that’s the only one; while the Nitanny Lions possess a strong run game, Northwestern is very solid against it in allowing just 139.7 yards per game on average thus far. The Wildcats front seven will be looking to take advantage of a very young Penn State offensive line, which will eleviate some of the pressure off the secondary. However, Northwestern catches a break here as Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has been all over the map as far as his performance so far this year, he struggled against UMass last week and he’ll have to keep his eyes on DE Dean Lowry who has collected 2.5 sackes on the season; you’ll also want to track Wildcats DE Ifeadi Odengibo, who has two sacks and three forced fumbles. Penn State is vulnerable for a letdown here I think, it has a struggling offensive line and a weak run game and I believe will have its hands full vs. Pat Fitzgerald, who is known for getting his teams to overacheive in these spots. Note that Northwestern is 6-4 ATS its last ten on the road and 4-3 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 11 points range; and note that Penn State is already 0-1 ATS this year as a favorite of 3.5 to 11 points and just 2-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to NORTHWESTERN as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | North Carolina +3 v. East Carolina | Top | 41-70 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina. North Carolina is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS this year. It’s had a week off after beating SDSU 31-27 as a 14.5 point favorite on September 6th. So with a week off to prepare and focus, I think the visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door. East Carolina is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS and I think is primed for a letdown here after last week’s emotional 28-21 outright win over Virginia Tech as a 10 point underdog. This is also a “revenge” scenario for the visitors who would fall 55-31 at home to ECU last year as 12.5 point favorites. So while the Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall, I definitely feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot, which is bad news vs. this confident Tar Heels team. UNC entered the season ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and has won its two games by a combined 31 points, but has since dropped out of the national rankings. The offense looks great, the defense needs some work though after giving up 29 and 27 points respectively. But as mentioned, the NC’s offense looks fantastic, it’s posted 87 total points so far behind a very balanced pass/rush attack. Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams has already thrown for 424 yards and four TDs behind a 67.2 percent pass completion. Williams though has also been deadly with his feet, he’s rushed for 115 yards and two major scores on 18 attempts. Pirates’ QB Shane Carden has also been great so far, he has 1,031 yards passing in three games, as well as thrown for seven scoring TD’s while completing 63.3 percent of his throws; that said, I think he’ll be in tough today vs. this revenge minded UNC unit. So not only do I feel this sets up as a letdown spot for ECU after its big upset last week, but I also believe that it’s a “look ahead” spot for it, as well as it won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to next week’s bye. Conversely, this is an ultra important game for the Tar Heels who are in No. 22 Clemson next week, then Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh, Duke and NC State to finish the season; in my opinion, this is a must-win contest for the visitors. Play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14.5 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on BYU. Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia’s numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with “smoke and mirrors.” The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I’ll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn’t been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD’s last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT’s in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he’s not put any fear into any opposing defense that he’s faced, BYU’s unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs’ pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side’s run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD’s while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD’s. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn’t want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I’ve proven so far that Virginia has been a little “lucky” this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that “luck” runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he’s averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia’s tough front seven; it’s on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year’s game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | USC v. Boston College +20 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on Boston College. Many different factors collide for the home side here, I look for Boston College to keep this one close enough to come away with the comfortable ATS cover. USC has won two straight, both SU and ATS but I think will come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door open for the home side to sneak through. The Trojans are coming off an emotional win at Stanford and I think the Eagles and coach Steve Addazio can take advantage of this letdown spot and keep it much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that combined with this non-conference road game, that USC won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to its bye next week, and then its important game at home vs. Oregon State on the 27th. I think the Trojans will be in for a bit of a surprise here, BC has a potent rush attack and will be able to control the ball for stretches while on offense; in fact, QB Tyler Murphy has been the team’s leading rusher with 210 yards and two TD’s in two games. Murphy will be a hand full today, he’s 27 of 52 for 307 yards so far and averages 7.2 yards per carry. USC looked great in its series opening win vs. a discombobulated Fresno State team, but I think will have difficulties in moving the ball so proficiently vs. this more sound Eagles defensive unit. Note that USC is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while BC is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in front of the home town crowd. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BOSTON COLLEGE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT on UCLA. This game is being played in Texas, but in a neutral location, I think the “vistors” have a big opportunity to shake off a somewhat lacklustre start and take advantage of this discombobulated Longhorns team. Texas is simply in free fall, coach Charlie Strong must wonder what the heck he got himself into after 34-point losses at home. A big reason why, starting QB David Ash is now out indefinitely with a concussion and so far backup Tyrone Swoops has been extremely inconsistent; it’s hardly been all Swoopes fault though as he is playing behind a severely depleted line. Those offensive line issues aren’t going to magically resolve themselves and its a point of weakness that the Bruins can attack. UCLA has been anything but impressive year as it has won two, one-possession games over Memphis and Virginia. The Bruins secondary has a big opportunity to redeem itself vs. the Longhorns backup this weekend. So while UCLA has looked pretty mediocre so far, there’s no question in my mind that Texas’ issues are much deeper. Note that UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while Texas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog; play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford. I had a big play on USC last week and it would pull away down the stretch for a convincing 52-13 win over Fresno State. Suffice it to say, I think the Trojan’s will have their hands full today though with this deep and well rested Stanford team and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a big game, the winner takes and early edge in the Pac-12 standings and the inaugural College Football Playoff race. “Revenge” definitely comes into play here as well, USC held off the Cardinal 20-17 at home last season as a 3.5 point underdog. Sure the Trojans looked good at home vs. Fresno State, but hitting the road for a divisional contest next time out is a tall task I believe, especially considering that Stanford is 13-1 SU at home vs. ranked opponents over the last five years. This is also a great situational play because Stanford was able to rest almost all of its starters in the second half of its 45-0 destruction of UC Davis. Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan will certainly be motivated and focused today, he had the worst game of his career in the loss to USC last year, he threw two critical INTs in the fourth quarter and was just 14 of 25 for 127 yards overall. No doubt Hogan was loving the performance of Ty Montgomery last week, who returned his first career punt for a TD while also catching five passes for 77 and another score. Both teams looked pretty good defensively vs. the weaker competition, we’ll call this area a “wash.” So while this contest is obviously crucial for both sides, I simply feel it means more to Stanford: as mentioned off the top, there is the revenge factor which must be taken into consideration, but also note that with road games at Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State coming up, this early divisional home contest almost becomes a “must win” scenario for the Cardinal. In my opinion, all signs point to STANFORD as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) +2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 1181 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* “ASSASSIN” on Miami. Here’s a great opportunity for Miami to avenge last season’s 36-9 setback in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. Miami gets its shot in the opening game of the season against a Louisville team making its debut in the ACC. Note that star QB Teddy Bridgewater, coach Charlie Strong and playmaker Marcus Smith are all gone for the Cardinals. While the Cardinals still possess a strong defensive unit, they’re going to be asked to do too much today vs. a revenge minded Hurricanes team which has some scary good offensive weapons in Stacy Coley and Duke Johnson, who I believe will be difference makers in the outcome of this contest. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are the types of gems I always keep my eyes open for and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -9 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 1131 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Georgia. As a situational handicapper, “revenge” is a big factor I take into account when studying College Football opportunties and there’s no question that this selection falls into that category. When you throw in the fact that Clemson is without perhaps the best offensive player in the league from 2013, I think that the writing is on the wall and look for Georgia to avenge last season’s thriller. The Tigers lost Tajh Boyd to the NFL, meaning Cole Stoudt will be making his first career start in this game. Stoudt has experience with the offense, but this is an entirely different situation with all of the expectations now heaped on his shoulders and he’s going to have a hell of a time playing in such a hostile environment. Clemson was unable to slow down RB Todd Gurley last year, who ran for 154 yards against it. With so much pressure on the defensive unit to carry the load, I’m predicting a classic letdown here. Georgia lost by a heart-breaking three-point margin last season, 38-35, but will benefit greatly here in playing in friendly confines. While Georgia will also be starting a new QB, overall the unit has had much less turnover and I don’t expect much of a drop off. Note that beyond Boyd, the Tigers will also be looking to replace playmakers Sammy Watkins, who was their second-best receiver, Martavius Bryand and leading rusher Roderick McDowell. The Bulldgos also return almost their entire defensive unit. I’m expecting GEORGIA to pull away down the stretch; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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08-28-14 | Tulane +4 v. Tulsa | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 1086 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EARLY AAC LINE-MOVER SPECIAL on Tulane. I am a situational handicapper at heart. When it comes to ATS sports and O/U’s, I mainly look at past statistics and numbers to base my selections, rarley do individual player match-ups play a role in my process (unless of course it involves a star player like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady etc). Tulsa has not gotten much better over the offseason, while Tulane comes into the 2014/15 campaign filled with confidence after its best effort in the last decade. The Green Wave had lost eight straight to the Golden Hurricane, both SU and ATS until they finally came out on top with the 14-7 victory as 3-point underdogs last year. It’s been a long hard road for Tulane, from 2003 to 2012 it won just a total of 33 games, an average of justt 3.3 wins per season during the 10-year span. Things changed when Curtis Johnson took over head coaching duties. Johnson had been the New Orleans Saints WR coach for six years before taking over in 2012. The Green Wave won just two games that season before Johnson would then lead them to a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last year. It’s true that Tulane clinched a bowl bid early and went just 1-4 down the stretch, but note that three of those came by a total of just 10 points. But with winning comes confidence, and also money; the Green Wave have an entirely new stadium ready to go this year. It will be a difficult switch from the Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, but Tulane catches a break in facing a familiar face in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane also come over from Conference USA. Tulsa dominated the conference for the better part of a decade before finally coming back down to Earth in 2013/14, finishing just 3-9. The biggest difference was clearly on offense, finishing No. 102 in the nation with just 21.1 points per game, six of its nine losses by 17 or more points. Tulsa is now in full rebuilding mode, it has a ton of new faces on both sides of the ball, several freshmen and sophomores will be playing a lot of minutes. Tulane is focused and has an identity, it played tough defense last year and while it will surely have its hands full in moving to the new conference, this first game sets up beautifully for it. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -8.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 707 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR" on Florida State.
Well you likely heard, read or seen all the build up to this National Championship game. The underdog Auburn team is coming off three heart stopping wins over Georgia, Alabama and Missouri to get to this point. Florida State has been rolling all opponents this season, winning by an average of more than 27 points. The Seminoles bring in arguably the biggest game changer in college football this year win Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and I think him, along with an underappreciated defense will make this an easy win for the favorites here. At some point the luck will run out for a Auburn that is playing little defense on its way the National Championship game. The Tigers ranked a disappointing 88th nationally in total defense (423.5 ypg allowed), while yielding 260.2 yards per game passing (104th nationally). They aren |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 535 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Alabama.
Oklahoma comes into the Sugar Bowl at 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS out of the Big 12. The Sooners played spoilers well in beating rival Oklahoma State 33-24. Sterling Shepard had seven receptions fo 112 yards and back up QB Blake Bell filled in lead the Sooners to win nicely. Alabama comes in 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS out of the SEC. I think everyone in the sporting world saw how the Crimson Tide fell 28-34 to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Tide lost on 99 yards missed FG return by Auburn. It |
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 508 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Michigan State.
Michigan State out of the Big Ten comes into the Rose Bowl at 12-1 SU and 8-4 off an upset win over Ohio State 34-24 to win the conference. Conner Cook finished 24-of-40 for a career-high 304 yards and three scores. Langford ran 24 times for 128 yards. Stanford won the PAC 12 with an 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS record after taking out Arizona State 38-14. Tyler Gaffney ran for 133 yards and scored three touchdowns to lead the Cardinal to its |
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -112 | 503 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOWOUT" on Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin Badgers come into the Capital One Bowl at 9-3 SU and 9-2 ATS out of the Big Ten. The Badgers were edged out 24-31 by Penn State the last time they saw action. The Badgers only have themselves to blame. They were uncharacteristically prone to mental errors and mistakes, turning over the ball three times. South Carolina out of the SEC comes in at 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS after a 31-17 win over Clemson. Conner Shaw threw for 152 yards and a TD and also ran for 92 yards and major in the win. Wisconsin's offense this season has been a potent one, boasting 35.8 points per game thanks largely to the nation's eighth-ranked rushing attack (283.0 ypg). Facing a number of SEC teams with high-powered rushing attacks, South Carolina allowed only 142.2 yards per game on the ground and clearly has the capacity to bottle up Gordon and White, which will give it a strong chance at the victory. However, Wisconsin's defense will be the difference-maker in this one against a Gamecocks' offense that lacks explosion. Its |
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12-07-13 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -10.5 | Top | 33-24 | Loss | -106 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* "DESTRUCTION" on Oklahoma State.
After a bye week the 17th ranked Oklahoma Sooners comes in the final week of the season at 9-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 42-31 win over Kansas State on the road. Trevor Knight threw for 196 yards, one TD and one INT while Brennan Clay rushed for 200 yards and two TDs in the win. The 6th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys sit at 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS after a bye week as well. Before the open date the Cowboys took down the powerful Baylor Bears 49-17 at home. Clint Chelf passed for a career-high 370 yards and accounted for four touchdowns and Tracy Moore finished with five catches for 126 for Oklahoma State. This is a big rivalry game for sure and both teams should get up for it. Although the Bedlam rivalry always brings out the best in the Sooners, they will be hard-pressed to tackle an Oklahoma State squad that has been nearly flawless since making the switch to Chelf under center. With a BCS bowl bid in their sights, expect the Cowboys to be focused on the task at hand. Oklahoma State is a 6-1 ATS at home this season and a perfect 6-0 ATS after a win over conference rival. The Sooners are just 3-5 ATS versus conference opponents. Lay the points. AAA |
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12-05-13 | Louisville -3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 31-24 | Win | 101 | 78 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Louisville.
Off a bye week Louisville is 10-1 SU and 4-7 ATS after a 24-17 win over Memphis. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 220 yards and a touchdown. Dominque Brown and Senorise Perry combined for 107 yards and a TD rushing. Louisville outgained Memphis 342-279 but still stumbled to the finish line in what wasn |
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11-30-13 | UCLA +4 v. USC | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* "UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR" on UCLA.
UCLA is 8-3 SU and 7-4 SU and after a 33-38 home loss to Arizona State last week. Brett Hundley passed for 253 yards and two touchdowns for UCLA. Myles Jack rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown while the freshman linebacker played almost exclusively on offense. USC is 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS after a 47-29 win over Colorado. Javorius Allen ran for a career-best 145 yards and three touchdowns while Cody Kessler passed for184 yards and two TDs. Even without the motivation of a conference title, both of these teams will have plenty to play for on Saturday. USC's ability to create havoc in the backfield could disrupt the normally unflappable Hundley just as Barr could keep Kessler from hitting his stride. Expect a game that comes down to the final minutes with the Bruins making enough plays on offense to grab a win. USC is 0-2 ATS this season when the spread is +3-3 while the Bruins are 3-1 in the same situation. Grab the points with UCLA, a 10* Under Dog Game of the Year selection. AAA |
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11-30-13 | Baylor -12.5 v. TCU | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Baylor.
Baylor is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS after getting crushed 17-49 at Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Bears were held to a season-worst 453 yards including 94 on the ground while committing three turnovers. Baylor had won the nine previous games by an average of 43.7 points but never led against the Cowboys. TCU is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS after a bye week. The Horned Frogs lost 31-33 to Kansas State on the road prior to the open date. Casey Pachall completed 23-of-33 passes for 243 yards, one TD and one INT in the place of Trevone Boykin. B.J. Catalone had 12 carries for 71 yards and one TD in the loss. Baylor suffered to embarrassing and crushing defeat last week, having its national championship chances crushed. I expect the Bears to bounce back with a vengeance this week. "We still have a lot to play for. We've got to go out and win these next two games. There are still goals and ambitions that we set prior to the season that we can still accomplish, " Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty said. Last weekend the Bears struggled to find offense in a hostile environment against one of the league's best defensive units in Oklahoma State. This week they face a Horned Frogs team that don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bears. Lay the points with Baylor. AAA |
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11-30-13 | Boston College v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Syracuse.
Boston College is 7-4 SU and ATS after a 29-26 win over Maryland last week. Andre Williams rushed for 263 yards to become the 16th player in NCAA history to top 2,000 in a single season. Williams had two TDs including the winning one. Race Rettig completed 6-14 passes for 120 yards, one TD and one INT. Syracuse continued to struggle, losing a 17-16 game to Pittsburgh to fall to 5-6 SU and 7-4 ATS. Terrel Hunt finished 18 of 28 for 159 yards and Jerome Smith gained 88 yards rushing for the Orange. The Orange has struggled but shouldn |
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11-30-13 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -115 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Michigan State.
Minnesota is 8-3 SU and ATS after 7-20 loss to Wisconsin last week at home. Philip Nelson finished just 7-for 23 for 83 yards. The Gophers only TD was an Aaron Hill 39 yard pick six return in the second quarter. Minnesota had just 185 total yards on the game. Michigan State won its seventh in a row with a 30-6 decision over Northwestern. Connor Cook threw for a career-high 293 yards, Jeremy Langford ran for 150 yards in the win. Michigan State is on fire with seven wins in row should be able to get a big win here at home. The Spartans are 9-0 SU and at home and 6-3 ATS. Minnesota is 7-7 ATS on the road the past three seasons. Michigan State won last years |
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11-29-13 | Washington State v. Washington -14.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Washington.
Washington State is 6-5 SU and 8-3 SU after a nice 49-37 win over Utah last weekend. Connor Halliday threw for 488 yards and four touchdowns while Dom Williams caught a pair of touchdown passes to go with 154 yards receiving for the Cougars. Washington is 1-4 SU and 6-5 ATS after a 69-27 win at Oregon State. Redshirt freshman Cyler Miles made his first college start and threw for 162 yards and a touchdown for Washington while Bishop Sankey ran for 179 yards and three touchdowns. Washington finished with 692 yards in total offense, compared to 414 for Oregon State. Hau'oli and the Huskies front line will be able to get pressure on Halliday and that could open up opportunities for the secondary to cash in on some errant throws. With the addition of Price to their offensive game plan, the Huskies' balance will prove too much for the one-sided Cougars. Lay the points with Washington AAA |
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11-29-13 | East Carolina v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 28-59 | Win | 100 | 97 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Marshall.
East Carolina is 9-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 42-28 win over North Carolina State last Saturday. Shane Carden threw three touchdown passes and ran for two scores to help the Pirates. Vintavious Cooper had 148 yards rushing while Justin Hardy added 83 yards and a TD receiving in the win. Marshall sits at 8-3 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 48-10 beat down Florida International. Rakeem Cato 241 yards passing and threw four TD passes in the win. Three of those TDs went to Gator Hoskins who also had 137 yards receiving. Both these teams come into this game on quite a nice roll having won six of seven. Note that East Carolina is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season while Marshall is a perfect 5-0 ATS and is undefeated in friendly confines. These are two of the top teams in Conference USA and I expect a close battle with Marshall coming out on top thanks to strong home field advantage. Take Marshall to win and cover the spread along the way. AAA |
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | Top | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* "TURKEY DAY TOP PLAY" on Texas.
Texas Tech sits at 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS off a bye week. Prior to the open date the Red Raiders fell to Baylor 34-63 on the road. Texas Tech scored touchdowns on its first three drives, and had No. 5 Baylor facing its first double-digit deficit of the season at the time but still the Red Raiders could not hold on. Texas sits at 7-3 SU and 4-5 ATS after a week off as well. The Long Horns are looking to bounce back off its |
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11-26-13 | Western Michigan +35 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on Western Michigan.
Western Michigan is 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS after a norrow 22-27 loss at home to Central Michigan. Dareyon Chance had 14 carries for 93 yards and one TD score. Zach Terrell completed just 14 of 35 passes for 147 yards zero TDs and one INT. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU and 7-4 ATS after a 35-17 win at Toledo. Star QB Jordan Lynch finished with three touchdowns- all in the second half, and 161 yards. I played on the Huskies last week as the slight favorite versus Toledo and was successful. This time I feel the value has jumped opposite of the Huskies as this is a massive spread. Yes the Huskies have won two straight versus Western Michigan but not last years |
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11-23-13 | Missouri -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 150 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Missouri.
The Missouri Tigers sit at 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS and are well rested after a bye week. The Tigers took care of Kentucky 48-17 prior to the bye. Maty Mauk completed 17 of 28 attempts for 203 yards and that included a massive five TD passes. Henry Josey had 113 yards rushing to go with a couple TD scores. Mississippi is 7-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 51-21 win over Troy last weekend. Bo Wallace was 17 for 26 for 272 yards and rushed for 66 yards on nine carries for a total of four TDS. Mississippi set a school record for total offense with 751 yards. This is looks to be good matchup on the Saturday Game Day as both teams are playing well and are in the Top 25 currently. Ole Miss has the home field advantage but they are going to be in tough with a Missouri offense that averages of 41.3 points and 492.6 yards per game and is getting their starting QB back in James Franklin. Defensively, Ole Miss has played much better than expected, as it holds foes to just 25.0 points per game but won |
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11-23-13 | Kentucky v. Georgia -23 | Top | 17-59 | Win | 100 | 149 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Georgia.
Kentucky is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS after a 6-22 loss at Vanderbilt. Jalen Whitlow threw four INTs but did rush for 69 yards as the main chain mover the Wildcats Kentucky lost its |
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11-23-13 | Idaho v. Florida State -56 | Top | 14-80 | Win | 100 | 146 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Florida State.
Idaho is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS after a 38-59 loss at home to Old Dominion. Taylor Davis finished the game 15-for-29 for 305 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Dezmon Epps had 175 yards receiving and a TD for the Vandals in a losing effort. Florida State continued its tear of FBS with a 56-3 win over Syracuse to move to 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS. Jameis Wintson completed 19-of-21 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The Seminoles scored 28 points before the Orange recorded 28 yards of total offense -- and Winston was the star in the rout. If Idaho was unable to shut down Old Dominion, there is little chance of stopping Florida State, which is one of the nation's top offensive squads. The Seminoles rank second nationally in scoring (52.7 ppg) and eighth in total offense (521.2 ypg). The spread looks large but Florida State hasn |
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11-23-13 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -6.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Wyoming.
Hawaii is 0-10 and 5-5 ATS after a 21-28 OT loss at San Diego State. John Schroeder finished 18-for-36 for 194 yards, two TDs and one INT. Joey Iosefa rushed 37 times for 150 yards and one TD. The Rainbow Warriors actually held the lead late in this game before OT. Wyoming is 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after getting killed 7-48 at Boise State. The Broncos put the game away early and scored 48 unanswered points after the Cowboys took an early 7-0 lead on their second possession of the game. Neither team is having a great season but its |
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11-23-13 | Cincinnati +4.5 v. Houston | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 142 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Cincinnati.
Cincinnati comes into this game at 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 52-17 win at Rutgers. Brendon Kay threw for a career-best 405 yards and four touchdowns, Mekale McKay caught three TDs in the win. Shaq Washington had 123 yards receiving and a TD on six receptions as well. Houston is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS after a 13-20 loss at Louisville. John Okorn completed 19-of 35 passes for 121 yards. While other teams like UCF and Louisville have gotten all the headlines in this conference, the Bearcats have gone quietly under the radar at 8-2 on the season. Brandon Kay owns the highest completion percentage on the season and should be effective in this game as it brings in an offense that averages 35 points a game. Houston has lost two in a row but granted they have been close games against tough opponents. A classic sense of offense versus defense but I like the way Kay is playing right now. Take Cincinnati as the underdog. AAA |
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11-23-13 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 142 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOCKBUSTER" on Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 48-10 beat down of Iowa State. Trevor Knight replaced the injured Blake Bell and help lead the team a 38-0 run in the second half. Knight was 8-of-14 passing for 61 yards and rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown. Damien Williams added 10 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns for the Sooners. Kansas State won its fourth in a row to move to 6-4 SU and ATS. The Wildcats won a thriller over TCU 33-31. Jack Cantele sent a 41-yard field goal attempt through the uprights with three seconds remaining to lift the team. Jake Waters finished 10-of-24 passing for 234 yards, two TDs and one INT. The Sooners bounced back nicely after a devastating loss to Baylor a week before and I expect them to continue good football this week. Kansas State looks to have found their groove with four straight wins. Both these teams lost to Baylor and Texas, but the Wildcats were competitive in their setbacks, while Oklahoma was routed. Still, the Sooners are looking from revenge after Kansas State won a 24-19 game last season as the underdog. Look for the Sooners not only to make it close, but have a good shot at the outright win. Take the points with Sooners. AAA |
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11-22-13 | Navy +3 v. San Jose State | Top | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SCORPION" on Navy.
Visiting Navy is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS after a 43-14 beat down of S. Alabama last week. Kneenan Reynolds converted 10-of-17 passes for 168 yards and a score to Matt Aiken, adding another 59 yards on the ground on 17 carries for a rushing attack that generated 351 yards and scored four TDs. Reynolds combined to take part in three TDs. San Jose State sits at 5-5 SU and ATS after a 16-38 loss at Nevada last week. David Fales completed 28-of-43 passes, but had just one touchdown and was sacked three times, with those negative 25 rushing yards bringing down the team's overall rushing output to a mere 58 yards on 30 attempts. This looks to be a close matchup as both teams are evenly matched. Navy has a better record but has played a weaker schedule. Still, the Midshipmen are on roll and Navy has won two straight games and three of the last four. Navy is also looking to avenge a 0-12 loss last season. Grab the points here in a game Navy has good chance of pulling out. AAA |