Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +9 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas. Outright upset? Probably not, but we think the Mean Green will keep this one interesting late. UNT was 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the C-USA, while Utah State went 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Mountain West. UNT averages 36.4 PPG and it allows only 21.8. Utah State averages 47.2 PPG and it allows 23. On paper, this one favors Utah State, but with the extra time off to prepare and with nothing to lose, we expect the Mean Green to take this one down to the wire. Note as well that Utah State is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records, while UNT is still 10-3 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Grab the points; play on NORTH TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | Top | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. The bottom line: Texas already beat Oklahoma this year. The Longhorns have the better defense and while we’re not calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a tight battle. Grab the points, play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 59-7 | Win | 100 | 136 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a loss vs. a conference rival and still 10-5 ATS in its last 15 on eh road, while Duke is just 2-4 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year. The bottom line: Duke’s already punched its ticket to a bowl sitting at 7-4, but at 5-6, the Demon Deacons have one last shot. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +4 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 135 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Michigan is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 off a win vs. a conference rival and only 1-3 ATS on the road this season, while Ohio State is 3-1 ATS in its last four at home. The bottom line: Ohio State has been terrible overall against the spread this year, but it’s always had Michigan’s number, coming into this one having won 11 straight in the series. The Buckeyes’ offense is better and its defense is just as good. At home, we love OHIO STATE to pull off the slight upset. That said, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -18 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 115 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Cincinnati. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that ECU is a terrible 3-11 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records and 3-1 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The bottom line: After last week’s humbling loss to UCF, look for the BEARCATS to lay the hammer down from start to finish in their final regular season game at home; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas +21 v. Missouri | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -109 | 114 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arkansas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this year already off a loss vs. a conference rival and 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog, while Missouri is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival and only 2-4 ATS this season vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: We’re not calling for an outright upset, but we think the ARKANSAS offense can keep the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +10 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASSACRE on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Mississippi State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 9.5 to 21 points range and only 3-6 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 9.5 to 14 points range. The bottom line: OLE MISS won’t be going down without a fight today, as it still needs a victory to become eligible; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan. Both teams come in off losses, with the Huskies falling at home to NIU and WMU falling to Ball State 35-31. The Huskies six-game win streak was snapped and I think they’ll stumble here as well. WMU is without QB Jon Wassink the last three games and the result has been three straight losses. But the team has slowly been making adjustments and a date at home in its season finale is just what the doctor ordered for back Kaleb Eleby in our opinion. Note as well that NIU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WMU is still 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 140 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Virginia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia is already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 3-1 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records, while Georgia Tech is already just 2-3 ATS at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. We think the CAVALIERS’ defense keeps the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -108 | 137 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU wins and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, while Wake Forest is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Look for desperate WAKE FOREST to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on New Mexico. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Boise State is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing a conference game and just 6-11 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New Mexico is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. We think Boise gets caught looking past its lowly but hungry home opponent. Grab the points, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 99 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on North Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that FAU is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while UNT is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home fav of three points or less. The bottom line: FAU comes in off a nice win and UNT enters off an upset loss. Look for the high-flying MEAN GREEN to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +6.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami Ohio. After six straight wins, we think NIU comes up short here. Miami Ohio is the “hungrier” team here, as it still sits two games behind in the East race. The Redhawks though come in off a big win over Ohio last week and there’s no reason not to think that the team can’t carry that momentum over here as well. It sets up well from a situational stand point for an outright upset, but also note that MIAMI OHIO is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +8 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Ball State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that WMU is a horrible 9-12 ATS in its last 21 following a conference game (including just 1-4 ATS this year), while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: WMU is free falling after QB Jon Wassink went down. BALL STATE keeps this one competitive at home. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Oregon State v. Stanford -22.5 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 144 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Oregon State is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Wrong time, wrong place for Oregon State. Stanford comes in on a losing streak and desperate for victory. The situation and the numbers both point to STANFORD as the correct call in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 22-52 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia Tech is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Pittsburgh is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU wins and only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite. The bottom line: Virginia Tech is the more desperate team after its recent slide and we haven’t counted the Hokies out yet. Look for the visitors to go down fighting and grab the points; play on VIRGINIA TECH. AAA Sports |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +15 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Wake Forest. Wake Forest lost its starting QB and it’s struggled against the better competition, but it desperately needs a victory and after NC State broke a two-game slide with a win last week at home, we think the Wolfpack come in a tiny bit complacent here. Note that Wake has been “money in the bank” for bettors in this spot as well by going 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing on six or less days rest. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio. Ohio’s won four straight and it comes in off a big blowout victory as an underdog over WMU, but Miami Ohio plays with revenge and it’s still trying desperately to become bowl eligible. After two straight big wins, we absolutely believe the Bobcats have a letdown mentally here. Note that MIAMI OHIO is already 4-1 ATS against the conference this season, while Ohio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite. AAA Sports |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +22.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Kent State. We think the first place Bulls look past the lowly Kent State Golden Flashes tonight. Kent enters off a 35-28 road win over Bowling Green, while Buffalo pulled away for a 52-41 home win over Miami Ohio in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Kent after the Bulls posted the 27-13 road win last year. The Golden Flashes are averaging 24.3 PPG and allowing 34.2, while the Bulls are averaging 34.9 and allowing 24.3. But the Golden Flashes looked solid last week and we think they carry that momentum over here (QB Woody Barrett had two TD passes and also rushed for 77 yards.) Note that KENT STATE is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog on the 21.5 to 31 points range, while Buffalo is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a fav in the same points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -17 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 9-16 ATS in is last 16 games played on turf, while Ohio State is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks rest. The bottom line: The Buckeyes chances for a playoff spot are slim, but a top level bowl is still in their sites with a sweep of the season. Look for OHIO STATE to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence. AAA Sports |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -7 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -114 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia. We think the Panthers will stumble here after their big shootout win over the Blue Devils last weekend. The Cavaliers have been rolling along and have won three straight and we have a hard time seeing the Panthers’ offense getting much going tonight against Virginia’s elite defensive unit. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Cavs, as note that Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival, while Virginia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 3-1 ATS in its last four off a win against a conference rival. Lay the points, play on VIRGINIA. AAA Sports |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida -10 | Top | 40-52 | Win | 100 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Temple is just 3-4 ATS in its last seen as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while UCF is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The bottom line: UCF is the highest scoring team in the nation and we have a hard time seeing the Owls, as good as they’re playing right now, keeping pace in this important game. Lay the points, play on CENTRAL FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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10-30-18 | Kent State -1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Kent State. Two horrible teams, but Kent State has the better defense and we think that’ll be the difference maker in the end. Kent State enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron, while Bowling Green comes in off a 49-14 road loss at Ohio. Note that this is a “revenge” game for Kent after the Falcons destroyed it at home 44-16 last year. KSU is averaging 23 PPG and allowing 35. Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG and allowing 47.8. The Green Falcons have looked very bad defensively of late as well, allowing an average of 51.4 PPG over their last four. Note that Bowling Green is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 following an ATS loss, while KSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. Play on KENT STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -3 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Stanford. WSU has so far gone undefeated against the spread this season, but we think that string comes to an end here against a Stanford team which is tied with its opponent today, a half game behind Washington for the division lead. It’s a classic contrast of styles, with Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense for WSU, against Stanford’s more traditional “ground and pound” offense led by RB Bryce Love. Despite all of its “ATS” success this seasonal note that WSU is still only 2-4 ATS in its last six games played on a grass field and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog of three points or less, while Stanford is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records and already 3-1 ATS this season vs. conference opponents. Home field is an advantage at this time of year. Lay the points, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
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10-27-18 | NC State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. These are two talented teams which are clearly very evenly matched. We think that the “revenge factor” comes into play here after the Wolfpack earned the 33-25 home win in the series last year. NC State has only lost one game, but that setback came last weekend in a humbling 41-7 road loss in Clemson. Now NC State is being asked to bring that same energy on the road again against the revenge minded Orange, who broke a two-game slide with a much needed 40-37 double OT win over North Carolina last week. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Orange, but also note that NC State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a loss against a conference rival, while Syracuse is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 against schools with winning records and 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points, play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. We think this is a great overall “situational” play. Utah has won five in a row and it’ll become bowl eligible with a victory today, but the Utes still have plans to win the Pac 12 conference at the end of the year. But this sets up as a potential “trap” against the lowly Bruins, who come in looking much better after a disastrous start to the campaign, having won two straight. The Utes are clearly the better team, but the external factors are working against them today. UCLA will essentially have to “win out” to become eligible and while the odds are against it, it’ll be pulling out all the stops today in trying to keep its recent surge rolling. Note as well that Utah is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama +13 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on South Alabama. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while South Alabama is 5-2 ATS as an underdog in the same points range. The bottom line: Troy lost starting QB Caleb Barker to injury and last week the Trojans fell to lowly Liberty. South Alabama QB Evan Orth has a strong 7:3 TD:INT and we think he’ll help keep his team in this one late; play on SOUTH ALABAMA. AAA Sports |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV +10.5 | Top | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on UNLV. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Air Force is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six when playing against a team with a losing record, while UNLV is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: UNLV’s offense is the difference maker here. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State +14.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-51 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Georgia State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Georgia State is interestingly 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October and perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Arkansas State is 0-4 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival and 0-3 ATS at home already. The bottom line: Both teams have been horrible, but Georgia State in particular has struggled. That said, Arkansas State’s offense has been terrible as well and we think the hungry visitors will keep it interesting late. Grab the points, play on GEORGIA STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-13-18 | Colorado +7.5 v. USC | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Colorado. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Colorado is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road and interestingly 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in games played in Week 5 through 9, while USC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records. The bottom line: The Buffs are 5-0 and undefeated and they enter off their bye week. USC has looked susceptible at times already this season. We’re expecting a very tight battle, one which will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Texas State. Georgia Southern is the better team and it’s looking for a third straight victory against lowly Texas State, but we think the home side will keep it interesting against an Eagles team which we predict will get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Georgia Souther is averaging just 30.8 PPG, so Texas State is going to have its opportunities to match pace here. Keep your eyes on Bobcats’ QB Tyler Vitt, who has a 3:2 TD:INT. Texas State’s weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but as mentioned above, the unit definitely catches a break here facing the Eagles somewhat less than spectacular offense. Note as well that Georgia Southern is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive wins and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Texas State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records. Grab the points, play on TEXAS STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU -2.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU. BYU plays with revenge here after falling 40-24 to Utah State on the road last year. Utah State has been great so far, averaging 51.5 points and allowing 23.8. The numbers are a little skewed because of the competition. BYU comes in off a loss to Washington, but overall the Cougars have made significant strides, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they’re allowing just 20.6 PPG (ranked 35th). We think this sets up as a trap for Utah State, which is still a poor 1-7 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, wile BYU is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine against the Mountain West Conference. Lay the points as BYU finds a way to get the job done at home. AAA Sports |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State +17 v. Troy | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 97 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State. This is a revenge game for Georgia State after it fell 34-10 in this game at home last year. The Panthers enter with plenty of momentum though off a 46-14 win over UL Monroe. They had 308 yards on the ground and they’re now ranked ninth in the nation in rushing. Troy is ranked 82nd in the nation in defending the pass, so we think the visitors will have their opportunities today. Troy’s been rolling behind Kaleb Baker, who has completed 71.6 percent of his passes, but we think this sets up as a classic “trap” game for the Trojans. Note as well that Troy is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Georgia State is interestingly 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the point, play on GEORGIA STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on UCLA. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in is last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Colorado is 0-3 ATS in its last three following its bye-week. The bottom line: UCLA is desperate and its down men, but head coach Chip Kelly will have his team ready to compete in our opinion. They catch Colorado at a great time out of its bye-week. Grab the points and expect a nail-biter. Play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -18 | Top | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 81 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Florida. Miami Florida roared out to a 31-3 lead over FIU last week and then it took the foot of the gas and held on for the convincing 31-17 victory. UNC opened the year 1-2, but it salvaged its season with a big 38-35 win over Pitt at home last Saturday. Can anyone say letdown spot? In our opinion, this one sets up as a trap for UNC. The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted we feel. The Tar Heels are averaging 24.7 PPG and allowing 33.3, while Miami Florida is averaging 43.5 PPG and allowing 18.5. Note that the Hurricanes are 21-15 ATS in their last 26 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Lay the points and expect a rout; play on MIAMI FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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09-08-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Purdue -14.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. EMU smashed Monmouth 51-17 last week and it comes in contented, knowing it faces a stiff challenge today. Purdue though fell 31-27 at home to Northwestern as a favorite last week, so it’ll be risking life and limb today to punch its first one into the win column. An 0-2 start to the year, with consecutive setbacks at home would be disastrous for a Boilermakers’ team with big expectations. With a much more “winnable” and important conference matchup at Buffalo next week, would anyone fault the Eagles “looking ahead” here either. But Clearly the Boilermakers don’t have that same luxury. They’ll be looking to take out their frustrations on someone and because of that, we’re expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to roll this score up as much as possible. Note that Purdue is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference game and 8-2 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while EMU is just 4-17 ATS in its last 21 after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game. With the Bulls up next, we look for the visitors to pack up their tents early in this one. Lay the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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09-08-18 | Arizona +4.5 v. Houston | Top | 18-45 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Arizona. This is a revenge game for Arizona after Houston won 19-16 on the road last year. The Wildcats are hungry after falling 28-23 at home to BYU, while the Cougars come in complacent after their 45-27 him win over Rice. Kevin Sumlin came up short in his first game as head coach for the Wildcats, but with 16 starters returning from last year’s squad that went 7-6 and lost to Purdue 38-35 in their bowl game, we think they have a very real shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright. Arizona had an unstoppable offense last year that put up over 41 PPG and with seven starters back on that side of the ball, including QB Khalil Tate, we’re expecting a much more efficient effort from the unit in Week 2. Houston was 7-5 last year and it lost to Fresno State its Bowl game. Houston has five starters back on offense and they’d anchor a unit which put up 581 yards of offense against Rice. QB D’Eriq King had 320 yards and three TD’s. We think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, we’re grabbing the points. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +21.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on SMU. We think the improved home side can catch the complacent high-powered Horned Frogs a little complacent here. TCU smashed Southern 55-7 last week and it has to be feeling pretty good about itself. TCU QB Shawn Robinson had an easy time of it last week, going for 182 yards and three TD’s. Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it allowed only 19 PPG. Clearly the Horned Frogs are an elite squad, we simply feel that the visitors will get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. SMU feel 46-23 on the road to North Texas. QB Ben Hicks started slowly and put up some numbers in garbage time, but the final stat line was decent with 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. Last year he had 3,500 yards passing and a sharp 33:12 TD:INT. SMU looked impotent defensively last week and it’s going to have its hands full in this one as well, but after going up big early, we look for the Horned Frogs to take the foot off the gas. We like SMU to cover easily with this large spread. AAA Sports |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. LSU | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Miami Florida. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on common sense, as note that Miami Florida returns it’s starting QB and most of its key pieces on offense. It’s defense is also stacked and should be only better this season. LSU though has a change at QB this year and we think that fact alone will be the difference here in Week 1. We’re expecting an absolute blowout from start to finish. Lay the points, play on MIAMI FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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09-01-18 | BYU v. Arizona -11.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -106 | 303 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona. BYU was 4-9 last year. Six new assistants were hired and another rebuilding year is expected for the Cougars. BYU QB Tanner Magnum is back, but he’s played in just 13 games over the last two years due to injury. Arizona has a Heisman hopeful in QB Khalil Tate who finished with 1,591 passing yards, 1,441 rushing while being responsible for 26 TD’s himself. The defense was a weak point last year, but it returns nine starters this season. We think the combination of Tate and the Wildcats’ improvement on defense will prove to be too much for BYU to overcome. Lay the points, play on Arizona. AAA Sports |
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08-31-18 | San Diego State +14.5 v. Stanford | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 755 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego State. We like the Aztecs to keep this one closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. SDSU went 10-2 last year with an entirely new offensive line. Now that line returns in full much more experienced. Stanford had a great regular season, but stumbled in its final two games, including a heartbreaking 39-37 loss in the Fiesta Bowl to TCU. Stanford has dynamic RB Bryce Love, who will surely have a huge game here, but SDSU now has the fire-power to match pace against a Cardinal defense with a small question mark coming into the new season. We’re grabbing the points, play on SAN DIEGO STATE. AAA Sports |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State -14 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -106 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Colorado State. It’s a conference match-up on Saturday night between Hawaii and Colorado State. The Rams were 7-6 last year, while Hawaii went 3-9. Last year Colorado State hammered the Warriors 51-21 in Hawaii. Hawaii has just nine starters back from a 3-9 year and it draws another tough matchup on opening night on the road. Last year Hawaii averaged 22.8 PPG, but with so much turnover on offense, we have a hard time seeing the Warriors mustering much of an attack tonight. It’s going to be a rebuilding year for the Rams as well, but we still think they’ll have more than enough to dispatch Hawaii easily. The defense though has five starters back from a group which allowed 27.8 PPG. Last year the Rams were 11th in the country in total offense. Clearly there is going to be a major drop off this season, but we think the depth COLORADO STATE brings to the table will turn out to be the difference in the end. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -114 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Alabama. So why will No. 4 Alabama not only beat No. 3 Georgia, but also go on to cover the spread? The Crimson Tide made a statement in their 24-6 victory over the top seeded and defending CFP Champion Clemson Tigers in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers averaged 35.4 PPG this year and 448.2 YPG overall, but were limited to just two FG’s and 188 total yards. Georgia averages 36.3 PPG and allows just 15.7, but the Bulldogs have yet to face a defense as good as the Tides. Note as well that ‘Bama is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a neutral site favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a neutral site dog. We think ALABAMA’S defense is firing on all cylinders at the exact opportune moment and we look for it to be the difference maker in the National title game. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 518 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson. This is a rematch of last year’s National Title game and we’re expecting a similar final result here as well. Alabama has significant injuries to its defense, with DB Hootie Jones, LB Dylan Moses and and LB Shaun Dion Hamilton all out with injury. Clemson on the other hand has gotten healthier on the defensive side of the ball, with Tre Lamar returning after missing the final three games with an injury. He’s going to be big in stopping the Crimson Tide run game. Alabama allows just 11.5 PPG, while QB Jalen Hurts owns a sharp 15/1 TD/INT. Tide RB Damian Harris averages 8.2 YPC. The Tigers allows just 12.8 PPG and it lead the nation in sacks with 44. Clemson was 6-0 in games against ranked teams this year, which included a convincing 38-3 win over Miami in the ACC Championship. Note that Alabama is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss (lost 26-14 to Auburn in the SEC Title game), while Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral site contests. Grab as many points as you can, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -6.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 469 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin. The Hurricanes are down three starters in this one, with RB Mark Walton lost in October, TE Christopher Herndon suffered a season ending injury in Novmeber and WR Ahmmon Richards was just hurt before the ACC Championship game. The Badgers only loss this year came in the conference championship game to Ohio State. Wisconsin finished in the top 5 in every statistical defensive category, including No. 3 scoring defense in allowing just 13.2 PPG. Miami lost its last two games of the year, getting upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 over Thanksgiving and then getting annihilated by Clemson in the championship contest. Note that Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a loss, while Miami is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs. When taking into account all of the above factors, we definitely feel that the savvy move in this contest is on the BADGERS. AAA Sports |
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12-28-17 | Virginia +1.5 v. Navy | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Virginia. It’s been confirmed that Virginia senior starters Micah Kiser, Quin Blanding and Kurt Benkert will all be playing today. Blanding has four INT’s this year, while Kiser has 130 tackles. Virginia backed its way into the Bowl season after a hot start. Navy can empathize though, as it’s lost six of its last seven, including a deflating loss to Army in its regular-season finale. Note that Virginia is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing with three or more weeks rest, while Navy is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with three or more weeks rest. The situation and the numbers both point to VIRGINIA as the savvy move in this year’s Military Bowl. AAA Sports |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Iowa. Boston College posted consecutive victories to punch its ticket to the Pinstripe Bowl, with wins over UConn and Syracuse to close the regular season. Iowa went into its final game of the year on a two-game losing streak, but then smashed Nebraska 56-14 in its regular season finale. Iowa RB Akrum Wadley posted 1,021 rushing yards on the year. BC most recently crushed Syracuse 42-14 in the Carrier Dome back on November 25th. Eagles’ RB AJ Dillon has 1,432 rushing yards and 13 TD’s this year. As good as BC has looked of late, we’re calling these offenses a “wash.” The difference maker for us is the Hawkeyes’ defense. Lay the points, play on IOWA. AAA Sports |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Central Michigan. Wyoming will welcome back QB Josh Allen to the mix, but we still like CMU here. CMU won its fifth straight in a 31-24 home win over Northern Illinois in late November, while Wyoming backed its way into the bowls, losing its final two, including a 20-17 loss to San Jose State in its finale. The Chips average 29.7 PPG and allow 26.8. CMU QB Shane Morris finished a 26:13 TD:INT. The Cowboys average 22.3 points and allow 17.8. Allen finished with a 13:6 TD:INT. Note though that CMU is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Wyoming is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after a three week or more rest period. Although they haven’t played for almost a month, CMU has a ton of momentum with the five straight victories and we look for this well oiled machine to carry it over here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on Marshall. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Marshall is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog (including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season) and 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Colorado State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five when playing with two or more weeks of rest, 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral field contests and just 1-2 ATS in its last three non-conference games. The bottom line: This is the New Mexico Bowl from Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Herd dropped its final two games of the year, but we think they are the more complete team of these two. QB Chase Litton had a 23:13 TD:INT ratio. The Marshall defense though is its strength and we think the unit will prove to be the difference maker in the end in this one. Colorado State’s weakness is on the defensive side and it struggled against good passing teams. The offense led by QB Nick Stevens was impressive, as he’d finish with a 27:10 TD:INT. The Rams also have a powerful RB in Dalyn Dawkins, who we think will have major difficulty with this opportunistic Thundering Herd defense which allows just 125 rushing YPG (note that Marshall gives up just 19.2 PPG overall.) We’re grabbing the points, play on the THUNDERING HERD. AAA Sports |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State -6 v. Wisconsin | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 58 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Ohio State is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a neutral field favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Wisconsin is just 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field. The bottom line: The winner of this will get a ticket to the College Championship round. Ohio State edged Wisconsin 30-23 in OT last year. Both teams ended the regular season with victories (Wisconsin 31-0 over Minnesota, Ohio State 31-20 over Michigan.) The Badgers average 34.8 PPG and allow just 12.0. The Buckeyes average 43.8 PPG and allow just 19.8. With a chance to derail the Badgers hopes, we think the offensive depth that OHIO STATE brings to the table today will in the end prove to be the difference. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati -5.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Cincinnati. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that UConn is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 4-5 ATS this year as an underdog, while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. The bottom line: Both teams have been terrible this year and neither will be playing in a bowl. The Bearcats play with revenge though after falling to the Huskies 20-9 last year. The revenge factor, combined with home field advantage turns out to be the difference. Play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech v. Texas -9.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TV GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. The Red Raiders are an absolute disaster right now, most recently falling 27-3 to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech still needs one more win to become bowl eligibile, but we don’t expect a letdown from the Longhorns here. Texas enters off a 28-14 win over WVU and it’ll look to send off its seniors with a big victory in front of the home town crowd in the season finale. Last week Texas Tech threw for just 153 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The Texas defense just held the high-flying Mountaineers to 14 points, limiting WVU to only 56 rushing yards on 19 carries. Note that Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of 20 points or more, while Texas is 4-1-1 ATS in its las tsix following an ATS victory and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home. All signs point to a blowout, play on the LONGHORNS. AAA Sports |
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11-17-17 | UNLV v. New Mexico -2 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that UNLV is just 4-10 in its last 14 against teams with losing records, while New Mexico is already 2-1 ATS this season against teams with losing records. The bottom line: The Runnin’ Rebels are at 4-6 and need to win their last two games to become bowl eligible. Unfortunately for the Lobos though, at 3-7 their postseason hopes are now gone. This is New Mexico’s final home game of the year though and it will be looking to put on a show for the home crowd, while also putting a final nail in the coffin for UNLV’s bowl hopes. We love the LOBOS to play spoiler tonight, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-10-17 | Washington v. Stanford +6 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding its previous opponet to three points or less (beat Oregon 38-3 last weekend), while Stanford is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival (fell 24-21 at WSU last weekend.) The bottom line: The Cardinal became bowl eligible the week before last Saturday’s loss, but suffered a predictable letdown. Washington only has one loss on its resume so far, but we think it’ll have its hands full today in this tough atmosphere. Stanford plays with revenge as well after falling 44-6 in last year’s matchup. Time for the Cardinal to bounce back from last week’s upset loss and to try and avenge last year’s setback to the Huskies, while also dealing Washington a blow to its playoff/bowl rankings. Grab the points, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
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11-07-17 | Akron +5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Akron. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Akron is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS in that position this year) and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 against teams with losing records (including 3-0 ATS this season), while Miami Ohio is just 1-3 ATS at home this year and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning records (including just 1-2 ATS in that positoin this season.) The bottom line: The Redhawks need to win out for a chance at a bowl, while the Zips, who come in off a 21-20 win over Buffalo last week, need just one more victory to become eligible. With the daunting task of having to “run the table” ahead of it, we think that Miami Ohio stumbles here. AKRON has several strong ATS stats working in its favor and won’t be lacking for motivation. AAA Sports |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ASSASSIN on Western Michigan. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that CMU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its by week and just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while WMU is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and and 14-11 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. The bottom line: With a chance to punch its sixth win of the year, we look for WMU to rally here after losing its starting QB and to find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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10-14-17 | Connecticut +12 v. Temple | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut. UConn is the “hungrier” team here as it’s lost four straight. Temple comes in off its best performance of the year with a 34-10 win over East Carolina and looks primed for a major letdown in our opinion. But not only is this a “letdown” spot, this is also is a bit of a “look-ahead” spot for the home side with a much more difficult game at Army next weekend. It’s a classic “trap” for Temple and it’s the main reason why we love this play so much. For UConn, a bowl trip is likely out of the question, but if the team has any hopes whatsoever it’s going to need to win this game straight up. The Owls picked up the decent victory last weekend, but QB Logan Marchi would post just his first 300 yard game of the year. Temple has already struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going 1-2 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as a favorite. UConn has struggled in almost every ATS statistical category there is over the last few seasons, which makes it important to note that it’s 4-1 ATS in its last five after surrendering 600 yards or more in its previous contest. While we’re not calling for an outright upset, all signs point to a comfortable back door cover. Play on CONNECTICUT. AAA Sports |
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09-30-17 | Florida State -7.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -104 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State. Florida State is 0-2 SU/ATS, while Wake Forest is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Despite those lop-sided numbers which would suggest that the Demon Deacons have the upper-hand in this contest, we believe that FSU has enough situational factors working in its favor to finally get off the schneid in a big way on Saturday afternoon. Our September CFB “GAME OF MONTH” was on Appalachian State, which fell 20-19 at home to Wake Forest last week, securing the easy cover. The Seminoles come to town the hungrier team for sure after they fell 27-21 at home to NC State in their last game. FSU QB James Blackman was 22 of 38 for 278 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Cam Akers led the way on the ground with 57 yards. Auden Tate has 180 receiving yards over his last two games. FSU’s defense wasn’t horrible either, allowing 365 total yards. With last week’s contest cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, the visiting side comes in focused. Wake needed a cluth blocked FG to even earn the victory last week. John Wolford was 14 of 27 for 176 yards and two TD’s. Akeem Byrd so far has 233 yards rushing for the season. The defense looked suspect though in our opinion, allowing 501 total yards. Note as well that the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a loss against a conference rival, while Wake is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU victories. Blackman looked great in his role as starter and we think he’ll carry that progression over here. Lay the points, play on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-28-17 | Texas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. We think that Texas is going to be the “hungrier” side tonight, a factor which we foresee resulting in a comfortable cover for the visiting team. The Longhorns lost 27-24 to USC in OT last time out, while Iowa State rolled to a 42-14 win over Akron. Note though that when these teams faced each other last year, Texas scored the 27-6 road victory. But it was oh-so-close for the Longhorns against the No. 4 ranked Trojans last time out. Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. One other Texas offensive player to keep your eyes on this weekend is WR Collin Johnson, who had seven catches for 191 yards against USC. Ultimately though we feel that the Longhorns’ defense is flying under the radar in this one, as it looked great against the Trojans, holding them to 468 yards, while also making three sacks and two INT’s. The Cyclones’ Jacob Park had 317 yards and two TD’s last week. RB David Montgomery had 127 rushing yards. The defense looked sharp against the MAC team, but lining up against this Longhorns’ line (on both sides of the ball) is clearly a huge step up in overall caliber and size. We like TEXAS to step up defensively and to pull away for the cover. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State +3 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Appalachian State. The Demon Deacons are 3-0 after trashing Utah State 46-10 at home last weekend. Last week the Mountaineers beat Texas State on the road 20-13. App State’s lone loss comes in its opener, a 31-10 setback at Georgia. Wake Forest: QB John Wolford is playing his best ball of his career, so far going for 500 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s. He also has 192 rushing yards. RB Arkeem Byrd had 120 yards on 19 carries in last week’s win. The defense also looked sharp, so far the unit has allowed just 273.3 YPG. Appalachian State: Mountaineers QB Taylor Lamb was 17 of 28 for 167 yards, one TD and no INT’s last week. So far Lamb has 622 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s this year. App State gives up just 289 YPG thus far. Offensively the team averages 175.3 rushing YPG. The bottom line: With a big conference matchup at home against Florida State next weekend, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “look ahead/trap” game for the visitors. We’re grabbing the points, play on APPALACHIAN STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-21-17 | Temple +18 v. South Florida | Top | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASASSIN on Temple. While we’re not going to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect the talented visiting side to keep this one a lot closer than what Sin City is leading us to believe. The Owls: Temple enters off a 29-14 home win over UMass. QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. So far he has nearly 770 yards passing and a 5:0 TD:INT. WR Keith Kirkwood now has 185 receiving yards on the year, while RB Ryquell Armstead had 177 rushing yards through three games. The defense was decent, getting gouged for 377 passing yards, but allowing just 61 rushing yards. Massacusetts was behind most of the game though, so it was forced to air it out. The Bulls: South Florida enters off a 47-23 home victory over Illinois. QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT. So far he has 680 yards passing and an 8:2 TD:INT. RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries. USF looked strong defensively, allowing a total of 354 yards. The bottom line: When these teams met last year, the Owls posted a 46-30 victory. Temple had more turnover in the offseason, so these are different teams essentially. However, we think that the Owls’ high-octane offense can keep them in this one late. As mentioned off the top, we think these teams are more evenly matched than what Sin City is trying to lead everyone to believe. Grab the points, play on TEMPLE. AAA Sports When you think of these two teams, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Explosive offenses likely isn’t one of them. The reason this total is so low, is because there’s no question that these clubs struggle to put points on the board most nights. In fact, the 49ers have yet to score an offensive TD. The Rams looked good beating the injured Colts, but came back down to Earth against the Redskins at home last weekend. San Francisco was never going to make the playoffs this year, but with a three-game road trip looming, this could be its last/best chance to score a victory to open the season. Essentially, it’s a “do-or-die” scenario for the 49ers tonight. With an added 7 points to the UNDER and to the home side’s spread, this one has all the makings of an easy cash! AAA Sports |
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09-16-17 | Stanford -9.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford. Stanford will be looking to take out its frustration on someone tonight after falling 42-24 at USC last weekend. Enter SDSU. The Aztecs are 2-0, but they look primed for a letdown here in our opinion after upsetting Arizona State 30-20 on the road last Saturday. The Cardinal: Stanford smashed Rice in its opener, but was unable to keep pace with high-flying USC last weekend. In all the Cardinal were outgained 623-342. So far Stanford ranks 23rd in the country in scoring though with an average of 43 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side in allowing 24.5. QB Keller Chryst has 425 yards and four TD’s, while RB Bryce Love has 340 rushing yards and two scores. The Aztecs: SDSU held a slim 352-342 yardage advantage over Arizona State last Saturday. So far the Aztecs are ranked 54th overall in scoring with 34 PPG, while ranked 43rd in allowing 18.5. QB Christian Chapman has 293 yards, three TD’s and one INT. Rashaad Penny has 413 yards on the ground and three TD’s. The bottom line: Note that Stanford is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while SDSU is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against the Pac-12. The Cardinal don’t really have to respect the pass today, so can load the box to slow down Penny. We look for STANFORD to ride its superior defensive play to a decisive victory. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on New Mexico. New Mexico enters off a tough 30-28 home loss to a difficult New Mexico State team at home, while Boise State collapsed in the second half of its game against Washington State, eventually succumbing 47-44 in OT. Note that the Lobos play with revenge here after falling 49-21 at home to the Broncos last season. New Mexico: The Lobos were actually down 30-5 at the start of the fourth quarter, but alas their come back bid came up a bit short. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting New Mexico to carry over that momentum/confidence to this one. QB Tevaka Tuioti came in late and threw for 151 yards and two TD’s. The Lobos also had 176 yards on the ground, led by Jay Griffin IV with 64 and a TD. The defense looked poor, but will catch a small repreive in facing what should be a gassed Broncos side working on the short week. Boise State: Over the final ten minutes the Broncos allowed 21 unanswered points and then eventually lost in overtime to Washington State. QB Brett Rypien was injured, so Montell Cozart would take over and he’d go for 161 yards, two TD’s and an INT. In all the Broncos allowed 455 yards on defense, so the Lobos are going to have their chances here today as well. The bottom line: Rypien is a game time decision here. Note that New Mexico is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Boise State is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 1/2 to 21 points. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State. San Diego State beat UC Davis 34-17 last weekend, while Arizona State rallied for a 37-31 win over New Mexico State. Aztecs: SDSU has just 11 starters back from a team which went 11-3 last year, including a 34-10 victory over Houston in the LV Bowl. The ground game notched 276 yards against the lowly Aggies last week. Rashaad Penny had 197 yards and two TD’s on 21 carries. QB Christian Chapman was 16 of 21 for 221 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good, not spectacular and will now clearly have its hands full against the big arm of ASU QB Manny Wilikins, who had 300 yards against the Aggies last week. Sun Devils: New Mexico State is a damn good team, filled with veteran experience. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 331 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 for 300 yards and two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had a big day with 123 yards on seven receptions. ASU’s weakness last year was its defense and that once again appears to be the case this season. The bottom line: But Arizona State catches a break this week facing the run heavy offense of the Aztecs. The secondary is the weak point. SDSU has a game at home against Stanford next weekend, before then starting the conference part of its schedule with a tough one on the road against Air Force. All signs point to the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that gruelling part of their schedule. A great situational play, play on the SUN DEVILS. AAA Sports |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue +26.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. This is a great “situational” play in our opinion, as we’re expecting the Cardinals to “look past” their lowly opponent tonight to a much more important conference matchup on the road at UNC next weekend. Louisville: The Cardinals were 9-4 overall last year and 7-1 in the ACC, falling 29-9 to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. QB Lamar Jackson had 3,543 passing yards, alowing with a 30:9 TD:INT ratio and also posted 21 rushing TD’s, ultimately going on to win the Heisman. But Jackson only has three other starters returning to his offense from last year. The defensive line also has more questions than answers right now with many holes to fill. Despite the issues that Louisville must overcome, the team is once again expected to among the nation’s leaders on both sides of the ball. Purdue: The Boilermakers were 3-9 last season and had a 1-8 record in league action. Purdue is expected to be a lot better thi syear with several key players returning, including QB David Blough, who had 3,353 yards and a 25:21 TD:INT ratio. Purdue also returns all of its RB’s, including Markell Jones, who had 616 yards last year. The defense was a major issue last year, but the unit returns several starters as well. The bottom line: We like Blough to keep this one respectable. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BOILERMAKERS. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Boston College v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Northern Illinois. BC was 7-6 last year, winning three straight to end the season including defeating Maryland 36-30 in the Quicken Lane Bowl. NIU was just 5-7 and will be eager to return to a bowl this season. BC averaged only 20.4 PPG last year, but the team led the nation in many defensive categories. The Huskies started four different QB’s last year, but still managed to post 30.5 PPG. The defense was a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing BC’s vanilla offense. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we believe NIU’s offense will at the very least keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -27 | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 204 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH on Memphis. The Warhawks struggled on the defensive side of the ball last year, an area which is also expected to be a weak point this season. And that doesn’t bode well against the up-tempo Tigers, who we foresee pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Louisiana Monroe: The Warhawks were just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl. UL Monroe was disastrous on the defensive side of the ball last year, allowing at least 34 points in every game, with four games seeing the opposition put up at least 51. QB Garrett Smith finished with 1,237 yards, nine TD’s and seven INT’s. Memphis: The Tigers were 8-5 and then lost 51-31 to Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. Memphis is led by Riley Ferguson, who had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and ten INT’s. Ferguson is back for his senior year and we think he’ll be the big difference maker tonight. The offense also features a strong run game with Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. The bottom line: Note that Louisiana Monroe is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games in August, while Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference contests. All signs point to a rout from start to finish, lay the points with confidence, play on MEMPHIS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford -31 | Top | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 128 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Stanford. This game is being played in Sydney Australia. The Cardinal have some big holes to fill this year, but they have plenty of young talent in key positions, as well as plenty of veteran leadership on both sides of the line to fall back on. The Cardinal were 10-3 last year and then beat UNC in the Sun Bowl. Rice was just 3-9 overall. These teams actually met on November 26th last year and Stanford scored the 41-17 victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much bigger rout here today. Stanford turns to QB Keller Chryst, who had 905 yards and ten TD’s last season. Replacing RB Christian McCaffrey won’t be easy, but Bryce Love will try, he ran 112 times for 779 yards and three TD’s last year. The strength of Stanford though lies on both the offensive and defensive lines. And that doesn’t bode well for the undersized Owls, who were held to 17 points or less in half their games last season. The Rice defense struggled as well, with the opposition posting 41 points or more seven times. Note that the Owls also start a redshirt freshman at QB today in Sam Glaseman (also note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral field affairs.) Rice already has more questions than answers as we head into the season, which lines up perfectly for Stanford. Look for Chryst and company to shake off some early jitters/rust and pull away down the stretch for the comforable ATS cover. Play on the CARDINAL. AAA Sports |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 672 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State. REASONING: USC closed the season with eight straight wins, including beating Notre Dame 45-27 at home in its finale. Penn State started the year 2-2, but then rattled off nine straight victories. Ultimately we think that Penn State’s explosive offense will do just enough to take this one down to the wire. The Trojans actually started the year 1-3, including a 52-6 loss by No. 1 Alabama. USC is ranked 42nd in scoring offense with 32.9 PPG and tied for 24th in scoring defense in allowing 22.2 PPG. The Nittanly Lions are putting up 430 yards of offense and 36.2 PPG, which is ranked 26th in the FBS. Penn State is 35th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 23.4 PPG. Note that USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field, while Penn State is 4-2 ATS in the same position. These teams are very similar and all signs point to this one being decided by whoever has their hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on PENN STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -3 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 626 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. REASONING: Back in 2014, No. 11 Clemson upset Ohio State 40-35 in the Orange Bowl. That game featured a couple of great QB’s in Taj Boyd and Braxton Miller, and so too does this one, with Clemson’s DeShaun Watson and OSU’s JT Barrett. Both teams have just one loss on the year. Barrett finished with 3,275 yards, 33 TD’s and just five picks, while RB Mike Weber led the way with 1,072 yards and nine TD’s. Ohio State ranks amont the best in the country on the offensive end (42.7 PPG, ranked fourth) and on the defensive end. Watson is 30-3 as a starting QB for Clemson. Watson had a mediocre season though, finishing with 37 TD’s and 15 picks. Clemson posts 506 yards per game, but is about to face the toughest defense it’s seen all year. Note that Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Clemson is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. We think Watson struggles against this top ten defense and look for Barrett to do just enough to secure the victory today. Play on OHIO STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-31-16 | Washington +17 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Push | 0 | 622 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington. REASONING: We got down on this one early and have Washington at +17 and it’s since dropped. Regardless, we think the high-flying Huskies can test Alabama’s nation leading defense and keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Washington hammered Colorado 41-10 in the Pac-12 Champ game, while Alabama cruised to a 54-16 win over Florida in the SEC title contest. The Crimson Tide are No. 1 in points allowed this year, allowing just 11.8 per contest. But there were two offenses which Alabama was unable to contain, beating Ole Miss 48-42 on September 17th and Arkansas 49-30 later on. Washington has steamrolled every opponent this year with its dominant offense, except in its only loss, falling 26-12 to USC on November 12th. QB Jake Browning has 42 TD’s this year, to go along with just seven picks. But Washington’s defense is vastly underrated in our opinion, as it concedes only 17.2 PPG, ranked ninth overall. Bama QB Jalen Hurt was 11 of 20 for 137 yards and one score in the win over the Gators. Hurts has 33 combined rushing/throwing TD’s and nine picks. Note that Alabama is just 1-2 ATS in its last three dome games, while Washington is 2-0 ATS in its last two in the same position. With a month off to prepare, we think Chris Peterson has the Huskies ready to play today. Grab the points, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State. REASONING: NC State earned bowl eligibility in its final game of the season. So too did Vanderbilt. The Wolfpack would beat UNC 28-21 in their regular-season finale. The team was paced by RB Matthew Dayes, who had 103 yards rushing and two TD’s in the victory over the Tar Heels. In all Hayes would finish with 1,119 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Also note that NC State has five receivers collecting at least 400 receiving yards, led by Stephen Louis with 657. The Wolfpack average just 25.5 PPG, ranked 88th overall, but they’ve been exceptional on the defensive end, allowing just 23.2 PPG, which is ranked 33rd in the country. The Commodores would beat Tennessee 45-34 in their regular season finale. QB Kyle Shurmur had a big day with 416 yards passing and two TD’s. RB Ralph Webb is the focal point of the offense though, he finished with 1,172 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. These teams are similar in many respects, as note that Vanderbilt averages only 23.5 PPG, while conceding just 22.6 (ranked 28th). Note though that Vanderbilt is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games and only 1-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival, while NC State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest. We think the numbers all point to NC STATE as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13 v. Tulsa | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Central Michigan. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and “common sense:” As note that Central Michigan is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a conference rival, while Tulsa is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing with two weeks or more of rest and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. The bottom line: We think Cooper Rush can keep this one close and look for the trends listed above to continue over into the Beach Bowl. play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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12-03-16 | Florida v. Alabama -24 | Top | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Alabama. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Florida is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog (including just 1-2 ATS this year), while Alabama is 8-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 6-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. The bottom line: The Gators have a top 15 defense, but the offense is a disaster. And that doesn’t bode well for an Alabama team which leads the nation on defense in allowing under 12 PPG. The Crimson Tide also rank in the top 10 offensively. On the national stage, we look for the No. 1 team in the FBS to send a resounding message to the rest of the country. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +8 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Colorado. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense: Washington is 11-1 and with a victory tonight, will not only claim the Pac 12 title, but also punch its ticket to the playoff championship round. Colorado beat Utah at home last week and has been under valued all year in our opinion. The Buffs have a top 35 offense and a top 10 defense. The Huskies are 3rd in the nation in scoring and also have a top 10 defense. Will Washington get caught “looking ahead” to what might be? The pressure is on the Huskies and we think the spotlight is going to be a detractor tonight. Conversely, the Buffs clearly have nothing to lose. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a win against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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11-26-16 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -100 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Michigan is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year). It’s also a poor 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog and just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against conference opponents. Note that it’s also only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note that Ohio State has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS at home this year is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: Obviously a huge rivalry game, but we simply can’t see the home side taking a mis-step at this point. We look for OHIO STATE to do just enough to come away with the cover at the end of the afternoon. AAA Sports |
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11-25-16 | Washington -5.5 v. Washington State | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Washington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The bottom line: The Cougars are coming off their first conference loss of the season to Colorado and are primed for a letdown. The Huskies are hoping to play for the national title and we’re expecting their No. 1 Pac 12 offense and defense to do just enough today to secure the ATS victory in the tough environment. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M +4 | Top | 54-39 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Texas A&M. REASONING: LSU has little to play for as it closes out the season sitting at 6-4, most recently coming off a disappointing 16-10 home loss to Florida this past Saturday. Texas A&M is 8-3 SU and it’s gunning for a better bowl position at this point. The Aggies enter off a 23-10 win over UTSA last week. LSU RB Leonard Fournette played injured last week and it showed as he’d finish with just 40 yards on 12 carries. Derrius Guice had 83 yards on 19 carries to go along with a TD (Guice was stuffed for the winning attempt from one yard out though). The Tigers get the job done on the ground offensively as the passing attack has been a major issue for years, this season it’s averaged just 174 yards per game, ranked 109th in the country. The Aggies lost the services of QB Trevor Knight and backup Jake Hubenak has been decent in relief, posting 222 yards against Mississippit State, 213 yards against Ole Miss and 248 yards against UTSA last weekend. Last Saturday he was 19 of 32 with one TD and no INT’s. The Aggies run game has been the strength of the team though, averaging 220.2 YPG. Note that LSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten games played in the month of November, while Texas A&M is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. We like Hubenak here and think the home side will jump on this rattled Tigers team. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA Sports |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. REASONING: Memphis is bowl eligible, while Cincinnati desperately needs two more wins to join the party. While an outright win is obviously not out of the question, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points as we think the home side’s overall desperation will take this one down to the wire. The Bearcats come in on a three-game losing streak. Memphis though is backing its way into the postseason as it’s dropped three of its last four, most recently a 49-42 setback to USF last weekend. Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson was 29 of 46 for 331 yards, three TD’s and one pick last week. Cincinnati most recently fell 24-3 to Central Florida and is in danger of a missing a bowl game for the first time in six years. Note though that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 3-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite (also a horrible 1-5 ATS against the conference), while Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses. Desperation breeds motivation, play on the BEARCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Michigan. REASONING: Ohio is heading bowling this year, but still has its sights set on taking the MAC East Division and overall conference crown. The Bobcats most recently edged Buffalo 34-10 back on November 3rd. CMU on the other hand is just 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips will be in a foul mood after dropping three straight, most recently a 37-17 loss to Miami Ohio on November 4th. If we look a little deeper into Ohio’s last win, we find that it was definitely a little “lucky” as it was outgained 413-377 and lost the first down battle 19-18. It also dropped the time of possession battle 31:36 to 28:24. Note that Ohio stands 63rd in the nation in scoring offense at 29.3 PPG. The defense is ranked 35th in allowing 23 points. The Chips are a pass first team, they actually rank 27th in the country with an average of 279.3 YPG. Overall CMU is ranked 64th in scoring offense at 29 PPG. The defense isn’t horrible either, allowing 29.3 PPG, ranked 72nd overall. Note that Ohio is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while CMU is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. We think that despertion leads to motivation for the home side, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boston College. REASONING: BC still has a shot at a bowl, but will need to win two of its last three games and while an outright upset is almost assuredly out of the question, we think that the visitors can keep this one competitive enough to come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. BC will be especially motivated here after getting blown out at home to Louisville last weekend. FSU finally became bowl eligible last weekend with a 24-20 win at NC State and we think it’s going to have a small mental letdown tonight. A 52-7 loss to the Cardinals sounds horrific, until we remember that FSU was annihilated 63-20 to Louisville as well earlier in the year. Clearly FSU is better on paper and on the field, but we think it’s just a classically bad “spot” for the home side today. Note that BC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while FSU is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven in the same points range and just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite. Grab the points, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +5.5 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. REASONING: Utah is 7-2 and is still trying to win its division, but at just 5-4 and with losses in three of its last four games, the Arizona State Sun Devils are desperate for one more victory and to become bowl eligible. Both teams come out of their bye, which we think favors the hungry Sun Devils. But primarily from a scheduling stand-point, this has bascially become a “must win” game for ASU. And that’s because it ends the year with two straight incredibly tough road games at Washington and Arizona. For us this pick is entirely “situational.” Also note that Utah is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five following its bye week, while ASU is 4-1 ATS following its bye week. Grab as many points as you can, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Central Michigan. REASONING: CMU is 5-4 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It’s the wrong place at the wrong time for the Redhawks in our opinion as we expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Central Michigan comes into this one in a foul mood after losing its second straight, this time a 27-24 home loss to Kent State last week. Miami Ohio is primed for a letdown here after its third straight win though, including a shocking 28-15 road win over EMU last weekend. The Chippewas are 59th in the nation in scoring at 30.3 PPG. They’re 73rd in the nation on the defensive side, allowing 28.4 PPG. The RedHawks are 117th in the country in scoring at just 20.9 PPG, while the defense ranks 51st by allowing 25.7. Note that CMU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following a straight up loss, while Miami Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in it last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The situational and motivational factors favor the visitors and so too do the numbers and trends. We’re laying the points, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 SIDE OF THE MONTH on UCLA. REASONING: ULCA has had a tough year and losing starting QB Josh Rosen to injury hasn’t helped. We had a play on UCLA as our GAME OF THE YEAR a couple of weeks back and released the selection before the extent of Rosen’s injury was fully known. While we got saddled with a loss because of the poor opening line, almost everyone else would have cashed against the closing one. Colorado is putting together a special season, so far it’s 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS. But with its bowl berth now all sewn up, we’re expecting a bit of a drop off in intensity tonight. And while Bruins’ backup QB Mike Fafaul has been far from perfect (eight TD’s and eight INT’s over 2-plus games), UCLA will be leaving everything on the field tonight and until the end of the season as it desperately tries to win three more games and become bowl eligible. On paper this is a major mismatch, but situationally it sets up perfect for UCLA. Note that UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while Colorado is 0-2 ATS following its bye. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +16 | Top | 52-20 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State. REASONING: This line opened at 16 (that’s the line we have) and it climbed to as high as 18.5. It’s come down a point as of writing, but regardless, we think the hungry home side can do just enough to come away with a solid ATS victory tonight. Both teams come out of their bye week. We think this will work negatively for the 8-0 WMU Broncos, who most recently beat EMU 45-31 on October 22nd. However, we believe the extra week off to prepare for the final four games of the year will greatly benefit the 4-4 Cardinals. Ball State doesn’t have many chances left to become bowl eligible and we’re expecting the team to bring its best effort each and every week. A big upset win over WMU would pave the way to a bowl appearance and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, we do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a competitive game this evening. Defensively these teams are in fact pretty close, with WMU conceding 19.3 and Ball State allowing 25.4. This sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors today. Play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Connecticut v. East Carolina -5 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC SIDE OF THE YEAR on East Carolina. Setting the scene: The Huskies are 3-5. The Pirates are 2-5. The Huskies are 1-4 in the East Division of the AAC, while East Carolina is 0-3. Both teams come in off losses, UConn fell 24-16 to Central Florida, while East Carolina lost 31-19 at Cincinnati. The Huskies: UConn had a 13-0 lead with 9:41 in the second quarter last week, but fell apart and could never recover in the second half. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 242 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. UConn has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging only 131.2 YPG. The Huskies have also struggled against the pass, giving up 289.8 YPG. The Pirates: ECU struggled against Cincinnati and fifth-year senior QB Gunner Kiel, who made his season debut as a starter in that one. QB Phillip Nelson had 283 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The run game was strong with 221 yards, while the offense would post 504 overall. ECU ranks ninth in the nation with 513.7 YPG, but it’s allowed 32.4. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road and just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog, while ECU is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 2-1 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. We think the desperate Pirates finally play a bit of defense, while the offense continues to shine and helps the team to pull away down the stretch for the easy ATS cover. Play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. Setting the scene: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an epic SU victory for the lowly Boilermakers, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive against what we feel will be a slightly disinterested and contented Nebraska side. Purdue: The Boilermakers are 3-3, most recently coming off a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. The team promptly fired head coach Darrell Hazell afterwards. Purdue trailed 35-7 at half and its second half rally would eventually fall short. The Boilermakers were outgained by only a slim margin though, 520-504. Purdue can sling the ball, it’s tied for 19th in the country in passing at 305.5 YPG. Overall it averages 27.5 PPG, while the defense concedes 34.8. QB David Blough will once again be given the green light to operate today, he has 1,756 yards, 12 TD’s and ten picks. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 6-0 after holding on for a 27-22 road win over Indiana last week. Nebraska led by 17-0 after one quarter, but twice had its lead shaved to two points in the second half. The ‘Huskers won the yardage battle 360-333. Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring offense at 35.3 PPG and are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 PPG. QB Tommy Armstrong Jr has ten TD’s and four INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Purdeu is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall, 4-0 ATS in the same time span as road dog of 21.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival, while Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival. We think the shake up at head coach works in our favor today and the razor-focused Boilermakers catch the ‘Huskers a bit off guard. Grab the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | UCLA +3.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -100 | 154 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. Setting the scene: We’ve been holding off writing this analysis as we’ve been waiting on the status of UCLA QB Josh Rosen. We watched the Bruins fall 23-20 to Arizona State this past weekend. Rosen was injured twice in that game, but it did not look very serious. Afterwards, all initial reports indicated that the versatile pivot would be fine, but then the next day his status was downgraded to questionable. Backup Mike Fafaul took all of the snaps in practice this week and a line which opened at +3.5, has since moved to +7.5. The books at least are clearly expecting Fafaul to get the start today. While we’re not thrilled with the big QB change (clearly an unfortunate set of circumstances), this selection was based primarily on the “situation” and some extremely strong and relevant ATS trends to begin with anyways. Whether Rosen gets the start or not, we’re expecting the hungry Bruins to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Reasoning: The PAC 12 is not the conference it once was, as there has been a lot of inconsistent play. UCLA is 3-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS this year, while Washington State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. First off this is a “revenge” game for ULCA, which fell 21-17 in Pasedna last year. The Bruins have had a tough scheulde, which started with an OT loss to Texas A&M. UCLA then beat UNLV and BYU on the road, but then suffered a nine-point setback to Stanford, before beating Arizona by 21 and then falling to ASU this past weekend. Washington State has also had an up and down start, but we think is primed for a big letdown tonight. The Cougars began their season with a loss at home to FCS squad Eastern Washington. Then they lost in Boise to start the year 0-2. Washington State though has responded with three straight victories, including blowout wins over conference foes Oregon and Stanford. Last Saturday the team travelled to Stanford and hammered the 15th ranked Cardinal 42-16. After the string of recent success and off their huge win last weekend, we think these College kids are primed for a letdown this weekend. It’s also not hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to its next two games, both on the road, starting at PAC 12 South leading Arizona State. The bottom line: Note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Washington State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Whether Rosen plays or not, we think the “hungrier” and more focused BRUINS have a legitimate shot at scoring the outright upset today. That said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois. Setting the scene: We think the 5-0 Broncos come in a bit complacent today, leaving the back door open just enough for the hungry 1-4 Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Northern Illinois: The Huskies come into this one with a bit of confidence after picking up their first win of the year, 31-24 against Ball State last weekend. The offense really started to click and we’re expecting that momentum to be carried over tonight, note that the unit posted a whopping 653 total yards. Keep your eyes on WR Kenny Golladay, who had 13 catches for 184 yards and two TD’s. Western Michigan: The Broncos rolled over Central Michigan last week 49-10. The defense posted eight sacks and two turnovers, icnluding an INT pick-six. So far the offense averages 459.6 YPG, including 247 on the ground. The bottom line: With a date against 0-5 Akron next weekend, WMU has hit a soft part of its schedule and we think the home side comes in disinterested and takes its foot off the gas. Grab as many points as you can, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Indiana +32 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Indiana. Setting the scene: Ohio State is a special team and one which barring epic disaster, will most assuredly be competing for the national title once it’s all said and done. The Hoosiers are a pretty good team too though and we think they’ll be able to keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch with the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Indiana: It’s 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State 24-21 at home last week. QB Richard Lagow was 16 of 26 for 276 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Devine Redding has posted over 100 yards in three of four games played. So far the Hoosiers average 29 PPG, ranked 67th in the country. The defense though is likely even better, as it’s conceding just 21.8 PPG. Ohio State: It’s 4-0 SU/ATS. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week. QB JT Barrett was 21 of 29 for 238 yards and four TD’s and one INT. RB Mike Weber had 144 yards rushing. The offense averages 57 PPG, ranked third overall, while the defense has been conceding an average of just 9.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the nation. The bottom line: The Hoosiers play with revenge today after falling 34-27 to the Buckeyes at home last year. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but 28 to 32 points better?! We don’t think so, as Indiana is no slouch, with offense and defense which both rank in the top 75. With back-to-back road games upcoming at Wisconsin and Penn State, we think the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on INDIANA. AAA Sports |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is the defending Sun Belt Champ, but it lost it’s QB in the offseason and has opened the 2016/17 campaign by going 0-4, including a humiliating loss to FCS Central Arkansas last time out. Georgia Southern comes out of a bye-week after getting smashed 59-31 on the road to Western Michigan. This is a great situational play though (which we’ll detail shortly) and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side is going to keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Eagles: Clearly they’re the better team today. Despite the lop-sided loss to WMU, Georgia Southern is still only giving up 305.8 YPG and 228 yards through the air. Four turnovers proved costly in the loss to the Broncos. QB Favian Upshaw was just 4 of 6, but did have two TD’s as well as one INT. Arkansas State will no doubt have its hands full trying to stop Georgia Southern’s ground attack, a unit which is so far averaging 317.8 YPG. Red Wolves: Coming off a 9-4 season, there were high expectations for Arkansas State this year. Clearly things haven’t gone the way that coach Blake Anderson envisioned, but despite the loss to Central Arkansas, there were a few silver linings to be taken from the setback, as QB Justice Hansen would go on to finish with 424 yards and three TD’s. Blake Mack also had eigth catches for 142 yards. Turnovers played a big part in the setback as well, as ASU had four, while unable to force any the other way. The bottom line: We think Georgia Southern gets caught “looking ahead” to its big matchup at Georgia Tech next week. While a non-conference game, clearly moving up to play in the Power 5 conference atmosphere is something these guys would have had circled on the calendar before the season started. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RED WOLVES. AAA Sports |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson. Setting the scene: It’s a battle of ACC heavyweights, as 4-0 Louisville takes on 4-0 Clemson on Saturday night. This line opened with the Tigers as 3.5 point favorites, but as of writing, Clemson is now the dog, getting a couple of points. So far Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable this year, but we think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue and against this top notch defense. Louisville: Jackson would finish with 417 yards and five passing TD’s, to go along with two more rushing scores in his team’s 59-28 win over Marshall last week. Jackson so far has 12 rushing TD’s, which is No. 1 in the country. The Clemson rush defense though is the most stout he’ll have faced yet this season. RB Brandon Radcliff is another dangerous weapon, to go along with WR James Quick, who has 360 receiving yards thus far. Their offense is No. 1, but the defense is ranked in the middle of the pack, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 47th in the nation. Clemson: The Tigers dismantled Georgia Tech last weekend, dominating on both sides of the ball in the 26-8 win. QB DeShaun Watson continues to slowly get better as the season has worn on, he was 32 of 48 for 304 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Wayne Gallman has yet to find his stride, rushing for 100 yards just once. Note though that offense averages 33.5 PPG, 57th overall in the country. Defensively though Clemson ranks among the best, last week it held the Yellow Jackets up-tempo attack to just 29 yards in the air and only 95 yards on the ground. Over the first four games the unit has given up an average of just 11 PPG. The bottom line: This clearly won’t be a cake walk, while it’s true that Jackson has yet to face a defense as good as Clemson’s, it’s also true that the Tigers have yet to face an offense as dynamic as this one. Note though that Louisville has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors in the past, going just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-5 ATS in its last eight in weeks 5 through 9. And note that this is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 10-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records. They say defense wins championships, and while nothing but a perfect record after five weeks is on the line in this one, we still feel that adage applies in this big conference matchup. Play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut v. Houston -27.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Houston. Setting the scene: It’s time for some revenge tonight as UConn managed a 20-17 win at home over Houston last year. The Huskies are 2-2 SU, while the Cougars are 4-0. Connecticut lost 31-24 at home to Syracuse last week, while Houston smashed Texas State 64-3. The Huskies: UConn failed to convert on a fourth down on the Orange two-yard line with just seconds left to play, spoiling the come from behind victory. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 264 yards with one TD and one INT. Shirreffs has struggled to open the year, with just two TD’s to go along with two INT’s. The Huskies have one great receiver in Noel Tomas, who had 14 catches for 111 yards last week, but beyond him, they’re pretty thin on the offensive side of the ball. Note that the unit is ranked 109th in the country at 21.2 PPG. The defense has done a better job, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 46th. The Cougars: QB Greg Ward Jr. was 20 of 26 against Texas State for 289 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. Ward Jr. didn’t play in Week 2 against FCS Lamar, but over the three games that he has been involved in, he’s thrown for 936 yards with five TD’s and two INT’s. The run game was also dominant with 243 total team yards last week, led by Duke Catalon with 70. So far the offense has averaged 44.8 PPG. The defense could arguably be even better, as it’s given up an average of 10.5 PPG thus far. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, while Houston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. We simply can’t see the Huskies matching pace with the Cougars high-powered offense. So far Shirreffs has been terrible and he’s about to go up against the best defense he’s seen all year. We like HOUSTON to put the foot on the gas from start to finish, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse +12.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. Setting the scene: While we’ll stop short of calling for an outright upset, we do definitely feel this one sets up fantastic for the undervalued home side, so in the end we’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. USF: The Bulls are firing on all cylinders, they’re coming off back to back blowout SU/ATS victories, including in last week’s 48-17 win over NIU last weekend. But with a game at home against Florida State next Saturday, we think the visitors are going to have a predictable letdown this afternoon, unable to help themselves in “looking ahead” to that monstrous matchup. Syracuse: The Orange are 1-1 to start their season opening three-game home stand. The team will then embark on three straight on the road, so a victory today would clearly go a long way in perhaps shaping the rest of the year. The bottom line: We base our selections off many different criteria. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we’ll completely dissect a contest from top to bottom. We think this is a great “situational” play though. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | Georgia State +30 v. Wisconsin | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 139 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State. Setting the scene: When the Sunday NFL games are going off, we’re already looking ahead to the following week’s College Football contests. We often jump on lines early and sometimes that works for us and other times that works against us. The latter is the case here, as we got Georgia State at +30 and that line has since gone up considerably, even +35.5 in some places. Regardless, we still love this selection as we feel that Wisconsin gets caught in a classic “trap” scenario this afternoon. Georgia State: Has nothing to lose here after a double-digit home loss to Ball State and a 48-14 setback on the road to Air Force. Note that Georgia State welcomes back 16 starters from last year. The Panthers though are not a good team and we won’t try to convince you that they are. However, as stated off the top we think this is a great spot for the visitor to sneak in through the back door down the stretch against a complacent home side that has bigger things on its mind. Wisconsin: A shocking 16-14 win over LSU in Week 1 as a 12.5 point underdog was followed up with a 54-10 beatdown victory over Akron as a 21.5 point favorite last Saturday. Now the Badgers have to play lowly Georgia State, before back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan. The bottom line: Note that Georgia State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 31 points or more. All signs point to a “trap,” so grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | California +8 v. San Diego State | Top | 40-45 | Win | 100 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Cal. Setting the scene: Cal trounced Hawaii in Australia in the season opener and has now returned home for a much stiffer test this evening. SDSU has won six straight at home and is 15-2 its last 17 at Qualcomm Stadium. We think that California has the athletes to keep this one close and while we would not be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to the points as the savvy move in this matchup. Cal: The Bears are going to have their hands full with Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has 4,370 career rushing yards and who has 2,057 yards and 21 TD’s in his last 15 at home. But if ever there was an offense that could match pace with the high-powered Aztecs, it’s California, who has averaged 630.2 yards of total offense and 46.0 points per game in its last five dating to last season. QB Davis Webb had 441 yards and four TD’s on 38 of 54 passing last week. SDSU: This team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball. Beyond Pumphrey, the Aztecs also have standout sophomore QB Christian Chapman, who had 283 yards and two TD’s against the Wildcats last week. The defense has held 12 straight opponents to 400 yards or less, but clearly the home side faces a very stiff test today. The bottom line: These teams are in fact very similar, as SDSU ranked second among FBS teams both in turnovers gained (34) and INT’s (23) last season. But not to be outdone, note that Cal finished tied for 11th in the FBS in fumbles recovered (12) and tied for 13th in total turnovers gained (23). Ultimately we think that Webb gives his team a punchers chance at an upset today. Play on the GOLDEN BEARS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Nevada v. Notre Dame -26 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Setting the scene: It’s the home opener for the Fighting Irish, who return home in a foul mood after falling 50-47 to Texas in overtime last weekend. The Wolfpack come in contented after taking care of Cal Poly in an unimpressive 30-27 effort in Week 1. In our opinion, all signs point to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Wolf Pack: Nevada won, but it didn’t look good last week against lowly Cal Poly. QB Tyler Stewart was a bright spot though, finishing 17 of 23 for 189 yards and two touchdowns. RB James Butler ran for 123 yards off 21 carries. Nevada is solid offensively, but has more questions than answers on the defensive side of the ball. Fighting Irish: QB DeShone Kizer was hot early on and head coach Brian Kelly would stick with him. Kizer would finish 15 of 24 for 215 yards and five touchdowns, also adding 77 on the ground. Kizer will get the start here and he has a ton of different weapons to utilize, including Torii Hunter Jr, who had four catches for 37 yards and one touchdown last week. Notre Dame lost a bunch of starters from last years smothering defensive unit and that was clearly evident in last week’s setback. However, we’re expecting Kelly to have the unit fired up and razor focused this afternoon. The bottom line: We base our picks off many different factors, but for this one we’re keeping it simple. We’re not going to read too much into last week’s setback and believe the Fighting Irish defense is much better than what we witnessed. The Longhorns caught some early momentum and Notre Dame was never able to catch its breath. With the offense leading the charge again this week, we’re looking for the home side defense to be the difference maker today. Lay the points on NOTRE DAME. AAA Sports |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse +14.5 | Top | 62-28 | Loss | -106 | 105 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Syracuse. Setting the scene: Both teams come off victories, as Louisville rolled to an impressive 70-14 victory over light-weight Charlotte last week, while Syracuse handled Colgate 33-7. When these team’s played last year, Louisville pulled away for the 41-17 victory. The Orange are going to be competitive in this spot in our opinion though and they’re going to catch a Cardinals team “looking ahead” to its important matchup against high-powered Florida State next week. Louisville: Here’s a great spot to take advantage of. We find it almost impossible not to see the Cardinals looking ahead to their game against FSU next weekend, a team they lost 41-21 to last season. Syracuse: The Orange have the benefit of playing three straight at home to open the year. Next weekend they play USF. Syracuse has its sights set on a bowl game this season after a disastrous 2015/16 campaign. 16 players return, so new coach Dino Babers has a lot to work with this season. The bottom line: Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was outstanding in the win over the 49ers, but the step up in competition is significant in league play today. We think the Orange can hang with Louisville offensively and make this one a little more interesting than what Vegas believes. Also note that Louisville is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a fav in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Syracuse is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can on the ORANGE. AAA Sports |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss +5 v. Florida State | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ole Miss. Setting the scene: Both teams are ranked and each are coming off 10-3 seasons. We think this one is going to be war right down until the final whistle, a contest which could very likely be decided by whichever team has the ball in its possession in the final moments. In this expected competitive affair, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Mississippi: The Rebels catch a break as this is in fact a neutral site game, being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss put up an average of 334.7 YPG through the air last year and also racked up an additional 183.1 YPG on the ground. The offense is led by QB Chad Kelly, who notched 4042 passing yards and a 31:13 TD:INT ratio. The unit does have a couple of holes to fill because of players leaving to go to the NFL, but Markell Pack, DaMarkus Lodge and Damore’ea Stringfellow are set to the fill the void at the WR position. Defensively the team was pretty good, allowing 258.8 through the air and a much better 127.1 YPG on the ground. The run defense is going to have to be sharp today in facing one of the top RB’s in the nation. Florida State: FSU averaged 255.8 YPG passing last year and 168.2 YPG on the round. Heisman trophy candidate Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon heavily in this game and throughout the season. And that’s because the Seminoles will be starting a freshman under center, Deondre Francois is expected to be among the best in the conference by the end of the season, but he’s being thrown directly into the fire in having to face one of the best defensive units in the SEC in his first game. The bottom line: Note that the Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in the same position. We think Ole Miss can win the battle in the trenches and at the point of attack, putting the pressure on Francois to step up. Kelly is tested and proven and he’ll be the difference maker today. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, as stated off the top, we’re going to grab as many points as we can in this one. Play on OLE MISS. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -116 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Clemson. Setting the scene: Clemson played in the College Football Championship Game last season and will be looking for a repeat performance this year as well. Auburn is expected to be much more competitive after finishing 7-6 last season, but still clearly has miles to go before being able to hang with the best in the nation. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we expect Clemson to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Clemson: Quarterback DeShaun Watson will be fired up and looking to make a statement to open the season, his only loss of the year came against Alabama in the Nat. Champ game. Watson completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 4,104 yards, 35 TDs and 13 INT’s last year. He was also the team’s second leading rusher with 1,105 yards on the ground and another 12 major scores. Leading rusher Wayne Gallman is also back and he totaled 1,527 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. Auburn: It finished dead last in the SEC West. It also finished ranked 85th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense last season. The bottom line: Auburn’s secondary should be much improved this year, but the unit is young and likely faces its stiffest test of the entire season right out of the gate. Too much Gallman and too much Watson in this one, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |