Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 204 h 3 m | Show |
10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia. They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEMSON Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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12-28-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 503 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEVADA No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them. Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY AAA |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 272 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA AAA |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BYU BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was 0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU. AAA |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army AAA |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK STATE #5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP. While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTAH It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-27-21 | Maryland -1.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 40-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARYLAND You’ve got two 5-6 teams facing off in a regular season finale. That means the winner gets to be bowl eligible while the loser is done for the year. Maryland has not covered a single Big 10 game this season. So the fact they have a chance to be bowl eligible seems pretty fortunate. Their two conference wins were by three over Indiana and by three over Illinois. The past six losses have all been by 17 or more points. But we’re taking them against a Rutgers team whose only two Big 10 victories happen to be at the expense of Indiana and Illinois. The Scarlet Knights, who haven’t won a conference game at home since 2017, were shutout 28-0 last week by Penn State. That was the third time in five games that they didn’t score more than seven points. Other than a 38-3 win at Indiana, Rutgers has not scored more than 20 points in any Big 10 game this year. They just don’t have enough offense to be taken seriously. Six of the last eight games have seen the Scarlet Knights score 13 or less. Maryland QB Tagovailoa had three straight 350+ yard games before running into Michigan last Saturday. All the Terps offense needs here is 21 points and that seems pretty attainable. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB -13.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB AAA |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NIU The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 9* on HAWAII We can’t see a Colorado State team that’s lost four straight games and has no shot at a bowl performing very well out in Hawaii this week. The home team is 2-0-1 ATS as a dog in Honolulu this year. That record could be 3-0 ATS depending on your closing line for the San Diego State game. The Rainbow Warriors are on a three-game losing streak themselves, but unlike CSU, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they win the final two games. This is also the final home game of the year, which is always a special atmosphere. Injuries are starting to pile up for the visitors and the defense just gave up over 500 yards last week in a loss to Air Force. Hawaii is the healthier team at this juncture of the season and has a winning record at home. The only team that Colorado State has beaten on the road is New Mexico, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Oregon, despite being the #3 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, is an underdog this week at Utah. We agree with the linesmakers on this one. The Utes are #23 in the country, so they’re obviously a team to be respected. They average (ever so slightly) more points per game than do the Ducks. They give up only slightly more. The number of yards gained per game by the two offenses is nearly identical. The Utes have scored 34 or more points each of their last six games. So, despite what the rankings say, you’ve got two pretty identical teams here. Both offenses will look to establish the run. But Utah has the home field edge. They’ve won 17 of their last 18 games in Salt Lake City. In the last three head to head meetings between Utah and Oregon, whomever has been at home has won. Oregon has lost a game in the month of November each of the previous six seasons. If you’re like us and you don’t think that the Ducks are going to make the Playoff, then it stands to reason that this is the game they are likely to lose. Play on UTAH AAA |
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11-20-21 | Washington -6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington has had a rough couple of weeks with coach Jimmy Lake being fired. The Huskies are 4-6 and one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. But they can still make a bowl game if they win out for interim coach Bob Gregory, who previously served as defensive coordinator. Such motivation does not exist in Boulder where Colorado is 3-7 following a 44-20 defeat at the hands of UCLA last week. Two key players - LB Gustav and WR Lemonious-Craig - both suffered season-ending injuries in that game. So a bad team just got worse. Since joining the Pac 12, the Buffaloes have beaten UW just one time - back in 2019 as 14-point underdogs. Prior to that, it had been seven consecutive double digit losses by an average of 28.9 points/game. Washington seemingly was on its way to a win over Arizona State last week before giving away the game in the fourth quarter. The defense has allowed the second fewest yards in the Pac 12. We think the Huskies keep their bowl hopes alive with a big win on Saturday. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-20-21 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -35.5 | Top | 16-56 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in the country, heads to Lexington this week to face a Kentucky team that was once ranked as high as #11. NMSU just got done facing another SEC team, Alabama, and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. The Aggies lost 59-3 and thus didn’t even cover as 50.5 point underdogs. It’s been a long season in Las Cruces as the team is 1-9 and that one win was against South Carolina State, who is not even a FBS program. The nine games versus FBS foes have not only all resulted in defeat, but seven of them have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Kentucky started the year at 7-0 (this is when they were ranked 11th), but then lost to Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee. They got back in the win column last week with a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. That game was 31-3 at halftime. The Wildcats are on a 14-game win streak against non-conference teams and are done with SEC play for the year. Because they are honoring the 22 seniors beforehand, UK will be “up” for this game. A defense that’s quite good could pitch a shutout here. The offense will have no problem scoring 40 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -15 | Top | 35-19 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on La Tech Our view is that Louisiana Tech should roll in this Friday night Conference USA battle. Their opponent, Southern Miss, is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Golden Eagles have just one win all year and that was against a FCS school (Grambling) back in September. Eight of their nine losses this year have been by double digits, five of them coming by 24 points or greater. USM did hang tough last week in a surprising showing at UTSA. But they used a “gimmicky” offense to do so and it resulted in their best player (RB Frank Gore Jr) getting injured. The offense still only gained 189 yards vs. UTSA and would have lost by 17 if not for the defense returning an interception for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech at least has some confidence after beating Charlotte 42-32 last week. This is their final home game, so the Bulldogs should be plenty motivated to go out and win big. They are 12-5 ATS following a straight up win. Louisiana Tech had over 500 yards of offense last week and a similar effort is quite possible tonight, which would likely mean a comfortable victory. Play on LOUISIANA TECH AAA |
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11-18-21 | Louisville -19.5 v. Duke | Top | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville Louisville should not have any problem beating up on a sorry Duke team Thursday night. The Cardinals enter this game off an impressive 41-3 win over Syracuse. That was a Syracuse team that had covered its previous seven games. As impressive as last week’s performance was, the Cardinals are still in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. Next week is the final regular season game and it’s against Kentucky. While at home, that is by no means a guaranteed win. So we look for L’vile to handle it’s business on Thursday against a Duke team that is 0-6 its last six games. Five of the six losses have been by 25 points or more! On Saturday it was a 48-17 loss at Virginia Tech. We see no reason to expect the Blue Devils to keep this one any closer. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback. The win over Syracuse may have been Louisville’s largest over a FBS team in six years. But we see no reason why they can’t repeat the effort tonight against a much worse team. After facing six straight opponents that had winning records, this should be a “walk in the park” for the road team. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The won-loss records of these two teams are quite misleading. Northern Illinois is 7-3 but has allowed more points than it has scored. Buffalo is 4-6 but has scored more than it has allowed. Hence the short number for this bit of Wednesday night “MAC-tion.” We’re going to side with the home team here, even though it is coming off back to back losses. Buffalo still has something to play for; if they were to win the next two games, then they become bowl eligible with six wins. The Bulls were MAC East Champs last year and would love to spoil Northern Illinois’ dreams of getting to the Conference Championship Game. The Huskies have won four games this year by a total of five points, which is nothing short of incredible and also very lucky. Last week was their third one-point win of 2021 as they kicked a last season FG to get by Ball State 30-29. But that was at home. The Huskies’ defense ranks ninth in the MAC in yards allowed (448.3 ypg) and seventh in scoring (30.8 points/game). Two weeks ago, they surrendered 52 points and 688 yards to Kent State! Buffalo’s defense is first in sacks while NIU is last (among MAC teams). Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-13-21 | Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME People seem to have forgotten about Notre Dame? The Irish have won four straight since losing to Cincinnati. They’ve covered the spread in all four of those wins as well. That Cincinnati game is their only loss and we certainly don’t see them losing Saturday night in Charlottesville to Virginia. The Hoos had their own four-game winning run snapped two weeks ago. They gave up 66 points in a loss to BYU. While they did score 48 or more for a third straight game - and are now coming off a bye - we just don’t see the home team having enough to stay inside the number against a clearly more talented football team. Even with the bye, Virginia may not have QB Brennan Armstrong, who sustained a rib injury against BYU. That would be a crushing blow to the home team’s hopes here. Notre Dame is already 3-0 this season vs. ACC teams need a big win to impress the playoff committee. They get it here. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -10.5 | Top | 42-40 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina starting quarterback Grayson McCall is out with an injury. He missed last week’s game against Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers still won 28-8. We liked them in that game and will take them again here, laying the points as this line is a bargain. Backup QB Bryce Carpenter didn’t have to do much last week. However, he ended up completing 66% of his passes. Were McCall in the lineup, we’d project this spread to be close to three touchdowns. Is McCall really worth almost 10 points? Probably not! Georgia State has the 103rd ranked pass defense in the country as it gives up 257 yards/game through the air. Carpenter will probably play well. Coastal has scored 27 or more points in all nine games this season. Georgia State has topped 28 just once. The Chants have won 12 straight home games and last year they beat GSU on the road by 51 points. AAA |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA November is when Oklahoma typically starts to roll. The Sooners haven’t lost a November game since 2014, well before current head coach Lincoln Riley first arrived in Norman. They’ve won 23 straight November games, including 21 when favored. OU enters this game against Baylor with an undefeated record in 2021 (9-0) and we think they’ll stay that way. This is the second shortest line for one of their games all year. They were four point favorites for the Texas game, which they came back and won 55-48. At the time, that was the Sooners third straight close victory. Since then, they’ve won by double digits three straight times. It was 52-21 over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Last week they were off. Baylor suffered just its second loss of the year last weekend as they went down 30-28 at the hands of TCU. Coming off a loss and facing a rested OU team is not what we’d call a “good situation” for the Bears. Since the switch at quarterback to Caleb Williams, the Sooners have averaged 48.5 points/game. They are still only 8th in the CFP rankings, so look for them to make a definitive “statement” to the committee here. Lay it! Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13.5 | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Boise State is 14-1 all-time vs. Wyoming with the lone loss taking place in Laramie back in 2016. The first 10 meetings, all won by Boise, were decided by an average of 26 points/game. The last five have been closer games with four decided by single digits. The visiting team has covered 11 of the last 15 times. While we do acknowledge that this Boise team isn’t as good as years past, they are coming off their two most impressive wins of the 2021 season. They went to Colorado State and won 28-19 then last Saturday went to Fresno State and won 40-14 as a 4.5 point underdog. Wyoming also won as an underdog (+3) last week. They beat Colorado State 31-17. But the Cowboys’ previous four conference games had all ended in defeat and they went 0-4 ATS as well. This is a team that also struggled to beat UConn. While Boise has the same 5-4 SU record as Wyoming, the Broncos are at least 3-2 in conference play. They’ve lost two games this year where they had a double digit lead. So their record could be better. We like this to be a three touchdown win for the home side. Before last week’s win, Wyoming had not scored more than 21 points in any conference game. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh is having a better season than North Carolina. The Panthers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread while the Tar Heels are just 5-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. But UNC is coming off an impressive come from behind win over Wake Forest, who was undefeated. Impressive as the win was, the Tar Heels still gave up 55 points. They’ve allowed an average of 47 points their last three games. That is never good, but going up against a Pitt offense that scores 45 per game means real trouble. There have been four times this year that the Panthers have scored 50 or more points. One of those was last week as they beat Duke 54-29. That game would have ended up as an even bigger blowout had Pitt not allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. It hasn’t been just the last three games where UNC has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 33.4 points/game for the entire season and that number is second worst in the entire ACC. The Tar Heels haven’t won on the road in 2021 (0-3), are 1-5 ATS their last six games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS their last eight games following an ATS win. Lay it. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NIU Northern Illinois suffered its first conference loss of the season last week. It was 52-47 to Kent State. The Huskies sure don’t seem to have the oddsmakers’ respect. They were underdogs at Kent State and they are underdogs here to Ball State, even though they’re at home. Ball State is just 3-6 ATS. The Cardinals did not cover the spread in a 31-25 win over Akron last Tuesday. The week before that saw them lose at home to Miami OH. We remember BSU winning the MAC Championship last season, but this year’s team hasn’t been as good. NIU put up season highs in points and yards last week, despite losing. The Huskies have been in every game besides the loss to Michigan. They’re looking to end a two-year losing streak to Ball State. Before losing the last two meetings, they’d won 10 in a row. This game is going to go a long way in deciding the MAC West. We believe the home team gets the job done as they are 9-2 ATS L11 games after an ATS loss. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Home field advantage has not meant much in previous Ohio-Eastern Michigan meetings. Each of the last three times these teams have met, whoever has been the road team has covered the spread. The last two times the road team was an underdog and won straight up. So recent history is on Ohio’s side tonight. Long-term history is as well with the Bobcats owning a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS advantage over EMU going back to 1997. Ohio can’t make a bowl this year, but has covered four of its last five games and pulled an upset last Tuesday against Miami. They were 35-33 winners as seven point home underdogs. The defense shut Miami out in the first half. Eastern Michigan was also an upset winner last Tuesday as they downed Toledo 52-49 as a nine point dog. But their defense yielded a somewhat shocking 672 yards. With four losses by seven points or less, Ohio is better than its 2-7 record. We like them to keep this one close. Play on OHIO AAA |
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11-06-21 | UTSA -11 v. UTEP | Top | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTSA There are six undefeated teams left in College Football. Five of them sit among the top nine in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The sixth is little-known UTSA out of Conference USA, who did not even make the Top 25. Now the Roadrunners are in the Top 20 of both the AP and Coaches Polls. They are 8-0 and - for the most part - blown out the teams on their schedule. They’ve played three games decided by seven points or less. The last one was not one of those. In their first game ever as a ranked team, UTSA crushed Louisiana Tech 45-16 two weeks ago. Coming off a bye, the Roadrunners next face UTEP, another surprising team at 6-2. The Miners have covered five in a row, but lost last week 28-25 at Florida Atlantic. UTSA is actually better than UTEP against the spread, holding a 7-1 season mark in that regard. We think the bye week is big for them coming into the Sun Bowl and they’ve already beaten UTEP four years in a row. Three of the wins have been by double digits. The last time they visited, UTSA was also off a bye and they won handily. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FIU Yes, we’re taking a team that has not won a game all season. Butch Davis’ Florida International Panthers are 0-7 currently. They host a 2-6 Old Dominion team this week. FIU has been on quite the nosedive for some time now. They didn’t win a game last year either. Although that’s somewhat misleading as they played only five games in the pandemic shortened season. It’s been 14 straight losses (including a bowl) for FIU since they pulled a shocking upset over Miami FL (Davis’ former employer) as 20-point underdogs in the second to last game of the 2019 regular season. But Old Dominion has only three wins during that same time frame and two were against FCS programs. The other came last week against Louisiana Tech when they were four point home underdogs. The Monarchs have not won a road game since midway through the 2018 season. (They opted out of 2020). ODU is 1-15 straight up its last 16 road games. Now they are favored on the road. No thank you. Old Dominion has gone 25 straight games without winning by more than a field goal. FIU has won the last two meetings by 7 and 8 points. Play on FIU AAA |
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11-06-21 | Coastal Carolina -17.5 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 28-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina was in a tough spot in their last game. They were coming off a crushing last second loss to Appalachian State, which cost them an unbeaten season. Facing Troy, the Chanticleers overcame a slow start to win 35-28 but did not cover the 17-point spread. It was the first game this season where they did not score on their opening possession. But they still racked up over 500 yards of offense. With a couple extra days to prepare (Troy game was on a Thursday), Coastal should come out and lay it to Georgia Southern this week. At least that’s what we think. Georgia Southern is a program in flux right now. Earlier this week, they announced Clay Helton will take over as coach … next season. So acting coach Kevin Whitley is a bit of lame duck these last four games. The Eagles have won only once in their last seven tries. It was a tough loss last week to Georgia State and Coastal will be arguably the toughest opponent of the year. Earlier in 2021, the Eagles lost 45-10 to Arkansas. It’s probably going to be “one of those kinds of games” for them again here as Coastal Carolina averages 44.4 points/game. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-06-21 | Army +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 21-14 | Win | 101 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY This game takes place in Arlington, Texas. Army marches into this week’s combat with a 4-3 record. But they’ve also lost three in a row. The most recent loss was two weeks ago against Wake Forest. It was a 70-56 game that featured more than 1,200 yards of offense. Typically, the kind of performance that Army turned in would be most teams. Two of the Black Knights’ losses have been to Power 5 teams. The other was to Wisconsin. Air Force is 6-2 and its losses came to Utah State and San Diego State. The San Diego State loss was two weeks ago and that’s the last time the Falcons have taken the field. So both service academies are coming off losses. As always, you’ve got to figure this will be a low scoring game. Underdogs have covered 12 of the previous 15 meetings of service academy teams (Army, Navy, Air Force) and won outright eight times. The last seven Army-Air Force games have averaged only 28 points. So you’ve almost got to take the points. Especially with Army beating Air Force three of the last four times they have played. Army needs two more wins to become bowl eligible, so this one matters more to them. Play on ARMY AAA |
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11-05-21 | Utah v. Stanford +9 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STANFORD With a 4-1 record in conference play, Utah essentially controls its own destiny in the Pac 12 South. They just defeated UCLA, in a 44-24 rout, last week. That win put the Utes in sole possession of first place in its division. If they were to win tonight and against Arizona and Colorado, who are the South’s two worst teams, they are guaranteed a spot in the Pac 12 Championship Game, no matter what happens against Oregon on 11/20. That being said, this is a lot of points that the Utes are laying here on Friday night. We understand that Stanford has lost three in a row. But the Cardinal are the one team to defeat Oregon this year and that win came here in Palo Alto. Stanford has NEVER beaten Utah in four previous tries at home (also 0-4 ATS), so you know David Shaw is going to have his team hungry “after dark” tonight. The Cardinal were 21 seconds away from a win last week, but gave up a touchdown and a two-point conversion to lose 20-13 to Washington. They were -3 in turnovers in that game, which cost them dearly. Shaw’s team has stepped up in big spots this season, not just against Oregon, but also beating USC. We think they make this a close game. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL Louisiana goes for its eighth straight win Thursday night and we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty getting it. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0 at home this season, winning by an average of almost four touchdowns per game. They have put more than 40 on the board each of the last three times they’ve played at Cajun Field. This run includes a very impressive 41-13 bushwhacking of Appalachian State in another mid-week contest. Georgia State is the opponent tonight. The Panthers have won three straight games, but all were against teams at the bottom of the Sun Belt. It was a pretty lucky 21-14 victory last week at Georgia Southern, who turned the ball over three different times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly, that was the difference in the game. Remember that we said Louisiana has scored more than 40 in three straight home games? Unfortunately for Georgia State, they have scored more than 28 points in only one game this season and that was against a really bad Louisiana Monroe team. Look for this game to develop into a blowout. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State +1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO STATE San Diego State still has an undefeated record. The Aztecs are 7-0. Linesmakers did not believe in them last week. They were three point underdogs at Air Force but won 20-14. It was the second game in a row where the Aztecs won in low-scoring fashion while being outgained. This week they’re back at home to face Fresno State. Fresno State was lucky to beat Nevada 34-32 last week. They had to stop a two-point try on the final play. San Diego State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game. They are seventh in the country with just 15.7 points/game allowed. The Aztecs are also better on special teams so they have distinct edges in two of the three phases of the game. Watch the line as SDSU is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as a home underdog. FSU is 0-6 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more pass yards. They allowed 476 last week. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY The only game Kentucky hasn’t covered is when they were a 31-point favorite vs. a FCS team. The Wildcats hadn’t lost a game straight up until two weeks ago when they fell 30-13 at Georgia. We took them with the points there. Fresh off a bye week and looking to get back in the win column, we look for UK to get the job done here against Mississippi State. The home team in this one has lost three of five. Two losses were close while the Alabama game wasn’t. Kentucky will badly want to win Saturday night as the last time they came away with a victory in Starkville was 2008. We love this spot for Kentucky, especially if they end up closing as the favorite. That’s because Top 15 teams favored by three or less over an unranked foe are 3-0 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS the past five seasons. The Wildcats have covered six straight SEC games, which is the longest active ATS win streak in the conference. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GEORGIA Georgia has never been a favorite of 14 or more points against Florida. But this is a special Bulldogs team ranked #1 in the country. The defense is making history, giving up only 6.6 points/game. No defense allows fewer yards/game than this one. It gives up only 208.3 and is also #1 in first downs allowed for the year (just 84). They rank #2 nationally both against the run and the pass. Georgia’s seven wins have been by a combined 220 points and they’ve beaten four ranked teams, the last three all by 17 points or more. This is obviously the best team in the country right now. They have won 11 consecutive games. So we don’t want to bet against them - even if Florida is better than its overall record (4-3). The Gators lost two of three before the bye. Making matters worse for them is that Georgia certainly remembers last year’s 44-28 loss that cost them a fourth straight SEC East Title. Seven of the last eight times these rivals have played, the game has been decided by 14 points or more. This one will be no different. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 8* on MICHIGAN STATE This weekend’s only matchup of undefeated teams takes place in the state of Michigan. It’s Michigan State facing Michigan. Both teams are in the top 10 and love to run the ball. They also share 6-1 ATS records. But the game takes place in East Lansing and the Spartans are coming off a bye. They are no strangers to being underdogs in this rivalry. All seven times they’ve faced a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team, Sparty has been the dog. They’ve won three of the games straight up. We think they can do that again. They’ve really proven to be just as good - on both sides of the ball - as compared to the Wolverines. We think they have an edge at quarterback too. For Michigan, McNamara is averaging just 7.64 yards/attempt, which is 61st in the FBS. Michigan State’s Thorne averages 243 yards/game and has 15 TD passes against just four interceptions. This is usually the kind of game Michigan loses under Harbaugh. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE 6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY AAA |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |