Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan +2 v. Toledo | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 29 m | Show | |
No surprise this line has dropped from the opener as this is sharp money driving it down. Toledo has had the Broncos number the last couple seasons no doubt about it. I just believe this year that Western is the better team. Where they will expose Toledo is on offense. Toledo has yet to play a powerhouse offense at all and their defensive number are terrible. Western Mich is averaging nearly 500 yards per game and Toledo is giving up nearly 500 yards per game. If those both go hand in hand here no doubt WMU will walk away with a victory here |
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10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 31-12 | Loss | -111 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
This seems to be a huge overreaction based on last weeks results. Baylor was a home dog to Iowa St and won outright, but blew a 20-0 lead in that game in the 4th quarter. They were also +2 in turnovers and couldn't put them away. Now they are saying if this game was played @ Baylor they would be a full TD dog. I'm not buying that considering Kansas St was less than that last week at a better Oklahoma St team. Kansas St should at least be -3.5 here in this game. They won't come out slow this week. |
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10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show | |
I think this is a discount here on Iowa St and maybe I'm on the wrong side here but this team is 3 points away from being 4-0 and if they were we all know this line would be at least a TD. Iowa St knows now they simply can't afford any slip ups if they want to play for the Big 12 title and especially this game. Iowa St started off very sluggish last week and I expect Campbell and company to come out hot here. Iowa St still has the best or if not the 2nd best offense in the conference. |
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10-05-19 | Kent State +36 v. Wisconsin | 0-48 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 34 m | Show | |
This number is simply too big for the Badgers to cover. Yes, we all know how good they are but it all boils down to motivation here. What exactly is their motivation here in this game to blowout this Kent St team? The Badgers are coming off back to back good home wins over Michigan and Northwestern and have Sparty on deck as well. Kent St has been tested by by a couple power 5 teams in @ Arizona St in which they covered and @ Auburn which they failed to by just 3 points at this same number. Kent St will get a couple scores and that will be all they need in order to cover this number |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
I love Michigan here in this game this weekend. People are simple overreacting here because they looked awful against Wisconsin. The game of the year line here was Michigan -14.5 and now after 4 games it has been adjusted this much? I think this is a rally the troops type of game for Big Blue and they put the hurt down. I'm also not sold on Iowa, this team was extremely lucky to have won the game @ Iowa St and failed to cover in the process. Michigan will be ready and I think that defense will rattle Stanley the QB who is vastly overrated IMO. Michigan covers this short number in a must win game fairly easily |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
There is no doubt who the betting public will be all over here and that is Central Florida. They are a very good team, but this Cincy team is nothing to hang your head on. In UCF only true road test they lost to a bad Pitt team. I know UCF has had their way with Cincy the last couple years, but this squad is healthy and they most definitely have this game circled. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show | |
The Rams to me are one of if not the most overrated teams in the league following last season and their Super Bowl appearance. They have been very lucky this season IMO. First week Carolina was the better team and they got lucky there. Against the Saints they knocked out Brees which was extremely beneficial. The Sunday night game @ the Browns that was a coin flip late. Now their luck finally got up with them getting destroyed by Winston and the Bucs. I also don't trust Goff to be one of the elite QB's and I think Wilson and company handle their own in this prime time spot and Seattle is a tough spot to play at |
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09-29-19 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | 6-16 | Loss | -125 | 102 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm going to be a square here I admit it, but this Bears team is no good. I don't think these teams are equal at all and that is what the line is suggesting here. The Bears rely so much on that defense which was clearly the case again on Monday night. The fact they weren't able to pull away and the Skins had a chance to cut the game down to under a TD says a lot about how bad that offense is. I think the Vikings are one of the most complete teams in the league. I know the big worry is Cousins, but I trust him a lot more thank Trubisky. I expect this line to drop big time throughout the week |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 23 m | Show |
This is a rally the troops here game for the Broncos before they throw in the towel for the year. They are 0-3 and clearly desperate and will look to back them here with the motivation edge. They should have beat the Bears who most are high on so I think they have enough film now on Minshew. While I love Minshew and what I have seen this, I just think this will be a tall task for him and company here. Denver was only outgained by the Packers by 2 yards last week and despite being -3 in turnovers they still nearly covered that game and actually should have. |
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09-29-19 | Bucs +10 v. Rams | 55-40 | Win | 100 | 77 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bucs should be 2-1 if it weren't for a missed FG at the end of the game last week. I also think the Rams are highly overrated right now. They were lucky week 1 @ Carolina, had the luck of Brees being knocked out week 2 and won in the final seconds against the Browns Sunday night. I also really like the spot here with the Bucs as the Rams have two big division games on deck. Simply too many points here with a Tampa team that is clearly improved |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Lions | 34-30 | Loss | -104 | 99 h 50 m | Show | |
I had the Chiefs last week and got the worst of the number as it dropped throughout the week and they ended up covering the final number at 4.5. I'm not a firm believer right now in the Lions as they were extremely lucky against the Chargers and also against the Eagles. Remember week 1 this team tied the Cardinals. Mahomes is just a whole different animal and I don't see how they can stop this offense. Also the Chiefs last week should have covered that game as they were up double digits for most of it but of course got back doored. The Lions defense doesn't present any problems to the Chiefs offense. |
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09-29-19 | Titans v. Falcons -3.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 43 m | Show | |
I think so far in the 3 games we saw the one outlier game with the Titans and that was week 1 @ the Browns. The next two games have been ugly for them as Marriota simply isn't the answer at QB anymore. The Falcons did play a good game against the Colts last week racking up just under 400 total yards. This team feels due for a major breakout game at home. With a high scoring team like Atlanta and a challenged offense like the Titans it will be hard for them to keep up. |
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09-29-19 | Raiders +7 v. Colts | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm going to take the Raiders here in this game. They are coming off a blowout loss @ Minnesota and the previous week vs Kansas City. Well both of those teams are playoff teams and super bowl contenders. I'm not going to hold that against them. Here is where I think Oakland can take control and that is on the ground here. The Colts defense is giving up some chunks of yards on the ground and with the rookie RB in Jacobs they love to run the ball. Indy also isn't an explosive offensive team here. If the Raiders take care of the ball I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright |
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09-28-19 | Houston v. North Texas -7 | 46-25 | Loss | -109 | 81 h 59 m | Show | |
Coming Later |
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09-28-19 | UNLV +9.5 v. Wyoming | 17-53 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 20 m | Show | |
I think UNLV is worth a look here at this price. UNLV is coming off a bye here and I think the perception of Wyoming is a little overrated as most remember their win over Missouri in week 1. Last week they covered vs Tulsa but had no business doing so as they were dominated. UNLV has the better athletes here along with the speed. This number is way too big |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +18 | 48-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 51 m | Show | |
This game is to is a crazy over reaction. Yes, the Buckeyes are steam rolling people right now and you can't take that away from them. Remind you though while they blew out Cincy they were favored by 17 and sharp money took that game down. Now they are laying more on the road in a night game against a lot better opponent. I also think the betting public is off Nebraska as well especially since they laid that egg on the road @ Colorado. This is a game where obviously the Cornhuskers will be up for. Also another thing here is that the Game Of The Year line was Ohio St -7.5 and now we are seeing a huge over reaction. |
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09-28-19 | Cincinnati v. Marshall +4 | 52-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
I think the wrong team is favored here. Reason is because Marshall barely won last week vs Ohio who was actually in a better spot. I just think this Marshall offense will be able to put up some points. I keep going back to that week 1 game against UCLA in which they were lucky to win and clearly this UCLA team is horrible. Marshall has been tested against a good Boise team on the road which they only lost by 7 and covered the number. I think both teams here are equal so give me the home dog. |
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09-28-19 | Iowa State -2.5 v. Baylor | 21-23 | Loss | -118 | 77 h 46 m | Show | |
This might be the public side here for sure but I just think Iowa St is the better team. They should have beat Iowa and were the better team on the field. I truly believe with them coming up a point short we are getting a discount. Baylor so far has played no one and are coming off an ugly game against a very bad Rice team. I think the Cyclones handle their own here in Waco. |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -9.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 24 m | Show | |
Last Friday we saw another USC QB go down and their 3rd stringer come in and beat a good Utah team. I will say that game was a very misleading final which is creating value now with Washington. I think this will be a similar case to when USC went on the road granted a 2nd string at this time @ BYU, but they came up short. What did Washington do @ BYU last week? I had them and they blew them out. This offense is rolling right now and I think the environment will be to much for a 3rd string QB. |
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09-28-19 | Northern Illinois v. Vanderbilt -6 | 18-24 | Push | 0 | 61 h 49 m | Show | |
This has all the feeling of a let the frustration out game. No one wants a part of Vandy right now after an 0-3 start and failing to cover in every game. Well they have played the toughest schedule in the country which I don't think is being taken into consideration. While they were blown out last week vs LSU they did still manage to score 38 points. Northern Illinois is coming off a bye which does help them but they gave up a fortune to Nebraska last time out. This team is down compared to most seasons and I think Vandy lets it all out here looking for their first win |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 53 m | Show | |
I was against Arizona St last week and they lost outright vs Colorado. I definitely see the value on them here against Cal on Friday night. I actually think both of these teams are very equal, but the fact that Cal is ranked and undefeated that betting public will love them. I like this spot for a bounce back for the Sun Devils and will take the points. I could also see Cal over look ASU here with a trip @ Oregon on deck |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
I think we get the max effort here from the Eagles tonight avoiding to go 1-4. They have lost back to back coin flip games in the final minutes and easily could be 3-0. Also they haven't covered the spread yet so the betting public wants nothing to do with them. I think the Packers are overrated here playing two bad teams in Chicago and Denver. The Denver game last week was a misleading final as well. Even when they jumped out to a big lead against the Vikings they couldn't put it away and that is a concern. I wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won outright tonight |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
I have to take the Redskins here in this game. The Bears have shown zero signs of an offense so far and were extremely lucky last week @ Denver who is a bad football team. I simply don't trust Trubisky on the road at all. The Skins despite not having big time play makers have shown some offense against the Eagles and Cowboys. Odds makers are saying that the Bears would be favored by double digits on @ Chicago and no way am I buying that |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 59 m | Show |
Coming Later |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +7 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 55 m | Show | |
We are seeing a big time over reaction here on this game. last week the look ahead line was Pittsburgh -1.5 and now with Big Ben going out, the line has moved 8 points? He isn't worth 8 points no way. People are also forgetting that Mason Rudolph played 70% of the game last week and still almost beat Seattle and would have had a great chance but a bad call at the end cost him the chance. San Fran goes from small dogs in both first two games to now TD favorites? Huge over reaction and I think Pitt keeps this very close. |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 103 h 54 m | Show | |
So the betting public will most definitely be off the Chargers here. The Chargers out played the Lions big time last week, but had some brutal mistakes like missing a couple field goals and a fumble at the 1 yard line that Detroit recovered. Based on the result though I think we get a really focused SD team that the betting public won't want anything to do with. The Texans are an overrated team and should have lost last week at home vs the Jags. The Texans still struggle big time on the OL as they gave up 4 sacks last week and I think the Chargers will get after Watson again here. |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5 | 28-33 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 29 m | Show | |
I will take the Chiefs here in their home opener for the season. Mahomes to me is the best QB in the league and just so dangerous with all the weapons around them. They are able to score points in a hurry and we saw that last week @ Oakland down 10-0 and then rattle off 28 straight. I'm also not sold on the Ravens at all here as they have played the Dolphins and Cardinals. They actually looked very sloppy last week and Murray threw for over 300 yards against them. I think everyone still remember Lamar lighting up the Dolphins in week 1 and see this @ 6.5 and instantly bet it. I don't think the Ravens are a come from behind team here and I like the Chiefs to really pour it on |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +6 v. Bills | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
I think the Bills are simply getting way too much respect here because they are 2-0 against an 0-2 team. The Bengals went on the road week 1 and should have Bearns Seattle, I think people are forgetting about that. Bills beat the Jets and Giants so which is nothing to impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised here if the Bengals won outright |
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09-21-19 | Utah State -4 v. San Diego State | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 13 m | Show | |
I think SDSU is being a little over valued here since they beat an awful UCLA team and then followed that up with another road win and cover last week over a bad New Mexico St team. This Utah St has the best QB in the Mountain West in Love. Utah St nearly won @ Wake who is clearly a very good team as we saw them beat North Carolina last week. Utah St will put up points here and I don't think SDSU can keep up. This is a short number and the Aggies are off a bye as well |
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09-21-19 | Colorado +8.5 v. Arizona State | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
Maybe this is a big time square play, but I simply can't back a team that just won a huge road over a ranked team but only scored 10 points in doing so. Mind you, the Sun Devils were a 14 point dog in that game and now favored by over a TD against Colorado. I also think another over reaction to that is since Colorado lost to Air Force last week. ASU struggles on offense with the young QB. I think the Buffs keep it close here |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia -14 | 17-23 | Loss | -114 | 74 h 58 m | Show | |
Coming Later |
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09-21-19 | Georgia State v. Texas State -3 | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 71 h 42 m | Show | |
So we are seeing a 2-1 team on the road as a dog to a 0-3 team. I actually think we will see some sharp money here late on this game. So, I think we can give a pass to the Texas St in two games losing to Texas AM and last week vs SMU. Let's look at the one competitive game they lost which they lost Wyoming as a 7 point dog. They actually out played Wyoming big time in that one and was a misleading final. I think people are still remembering the fact that Georgia St went on the road and won @ Tennessee. That is creating some value with Texas St here |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 78 h 2 m | Show | |
Pretty simple handicap here for me in this game. BYU is simply getting too much love for beating USC last week and I feel like that game was handed to them as BYU could barely escape in OT despite being +3 in turnovers. Also looking back last week odds makers are saying that on a neutral field Washington and USC are nearly equal? I'm not buying it at all. I know this is the Huskies first game on the road, but last week their offense broke open and I think this is a very good spot for Washington who won't be over looking this game |
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09-21-19 | SMU +9.5 v. TCU | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show | |
We have no choice but to be impressed with what SMU has done so far. They beat a very solid Arkansas St program and destroyed a good North Texas team. This game clearly means more to the Mustangs here than it does to TCU. SMU has a high powered offense going right now averaging over 40 ppg. TCU beat a down Purdue team last week, but covered in doing so giving us some value here. SMU is a better team than Purdue. I wouldn't be surprised at all if SMU pulled the upset |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -3.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 4 m | Show |
Really like the Aggies here in this game. I also think the betting public will be all over Auburn here. The reason they will be is because they remember the week 1 gross come back win and cover over Oregon in a game they were completely outplayed. The Aggies have a great home field advantage here in the 12th man and also this is will freshman QB Nix first true road game. Texas AM for sure has this game circled with two losses to this Auburn team. Aggies have the defense here and I think they cover this one fairly easily |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm not a believer here in the Titans at all and I think the wrong team is favored here. First, I think we get a big time desperate performance here from the Jags as they are 0-2 and return home. Minshew has been a great bright spot for the Jags and they should have won last week @ the Texans going for 2 and getting stopped at the half yard line. Titans are simply getting a ton of respect because of the week 1 performance at the Browns, but the defense rose with touchdowns and that was a misleading final. Their offense is no good here at all and I expect the jags to feast here. They held a great Texans offense to 13. Also the Titans were +2 in turnovers last week and still lost the game at home, that shows you how bad the offense is |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -4.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show | |
I missed a good opener here with Tulane but will back them here in this spot. I had the Green Wave in week 1 over FIU in an easy route. Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country and they are a tough option team to play against, but they actually have a good QB in McMillan. Houston is just in a very tough spot here coming off a game against Washington St and we all know their air raid style. Now they have one week to prepare for the total opposite in Tulane. Granted they are familiar to an extent but this is still tough to see total opposites in back to back weeks. Tulane has also played Auburn @ Auburn and held them to 24 points. Tulane has a better defense then most think and they can contain King |
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09-16-19 | Browns -3 v. Jets | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 104 h 54 m | Show | |
09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 106 h 11 m | Show | |
I just flat out think the wrong team is favored here in this game. Odds makers are telling you if going by the lines last week that the Falcons would roughly be -2.5 at home over Minnesota. Throw this Eagles line in the mix @ Atlanta and they are saying the Eagles would be -6 over the Vikings? I'm not buying that at all. The Eagles defense clearly has some issues as the Redskins with zero weapons torched them in the air with 380 yards by Keenum. I simply think the line is completely off here. Atlanta will bounce back here at home and put up some point on this Eagles team. |
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09-15-19 | Bears v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
Really like the Broncos here in this game. The perfect storm happened on Monday night as they lost to the Raiders and everyone has the Raiders pegged as a bad team, but they actually looked pretty decent. Denver had a hard time getting after the QB, but that won't be the case here in this game as we saw a Packer defense really get after Chicago. The Bears are one of the most over hyped teams coming into the season and I am completely shocked they are favored by this given what we saw from them. Now part of that I do realize is the fact Bears are on a longer week and the Broncos are on a shorter week, but I'm not worried. This Broncos D will eat up Trubisky and company |
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09-15-19 | 49ers v. Bengals +1 | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 46 m | Show | |
I really like the Bengals here and was on the right side of this move. Last week the Bengals went into a tough place @ Seattle and took them down to the wire. You can actually make the case that they were the better team out gaining them by over 200 yards, but the dreaded turnovers got the best of them losing that battle 3-1. The Niners weren't that impressive at all to me and benefited from Winston who still continues to throw picks. The Niners had two touchdowns off 2 pick sixes. You simply can't rely on that throughout the season in order to get things done. I wasn't impresses at all bother offense either. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 32 m | Show | |
I definitely think the betting public will want nothing to do with the Steelers here given the fact they looked awful on prime time. This is easily a get right game for Pitt here and they will bounce back. We saw how much Seattle gave up in the air to the Bengals and the Steelers have better weapons overall. I also don't trust this Seattle team much away from home especially playing early on the east coast. This is another line that will go up as the week goes on. |
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09-15-19 | Jaguars +10 v. Texans | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 93 h 18 m | Show | |
This to me is a huge overreaction here due to the fact that the Jags lost their QB Foles for quite some time now. This is now giving us some serious value here with the Jags as the look ahead line here was +3 and now a full TD adjustment? I was beyond impressed with backup QB Garner Minshew when he came in against the Chiefs and actually started 10/10. The Texans will be on a short week now after the Monday game which I think they have a hangover from losing that tough game. The Jags still have a tough defense and I expect them to play better against someone not named Mahomes |
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09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -14 | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
I was on Nebraska last week and they blew that game which was gross after being up 17-0 at halftime and in total control. I think this is the get right game here and just blow Northern Illinois out. I love that it's a night game as well so the players will be pumped. Frost knows the importance of the bounce back after that ugly loss. I think they are catching Northern Illinois in a good spot here with them playing a back to back road game. NIU is coming off a hard fought physical game against Utah in which they covered the 23.5 spread. I just don't see them stopping Nebraska here and while most people will be down on them I think it's a great buy low spot |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 73 h 19 m | Show | |
I just don't think Odds makers have adjusted enough here for Florida St. Sure they played one good half against Boise but since then they have been just flat out terrible. A large part of that is because of their defense. Well, we know the Virginia defense is loaded and probably is 2nd best I the ACC outside of Clemson. Blackmon isn't the answer the Notes had hoped for as they should have lost to La Monroe as 23 point favorites. This is a night game in Virginia and I think they rise here and put a beat down on FSU. |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State +3 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 6 m | Show |
I am just really surprised here by this crazy line movement. First, the Game Of The Year lines had Iowa St -3 or -4 and the Cyclones played one game, I repeat one game this season and the line has flipped a full touchdown which is crazy and clearly a big time overreaction. Also Iowa St dropped from the rankings while Iowa is 2-0 and have covered both games and coming off a shutout. I'm not impressed by Iowa honestly and the best QB on the field is Purdy for Iowa St. The Cyclones will be hungry here to end this little Iowa streak. Iowa actually has some question marks with injuries on defense. This will be the Hawkeyes first true test and I don't think they win and the wrong team is favored. |
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09-14-19 | Arizona State v. Michigan State -14 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
We have seen early so far how much the PAC 12 hasn't been quite that good. I think that is the case here with the Sun Devils as well. Their offense under a true freshman QB has been less than desirable. They have played two cupcakes in Kent St and Sacramento St and have managed a whopping 49 total points. I don't think they mustard up anything here against a very good Party defense that will be out for revenge from an ugly loss last season. True Freshman first road game won't be an easy and I expect Sparty to create a few turnovers and jump on them early |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State +8 v. Mississippi State | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 7 m | Show | |
So far I'm really liking what the new coach Chris Klieman is showing at Kansas St. Now, I know they haven't played anyone that may impress you but they have taken care of business in scoring 49 and 52 points in the first two games. Also I like what the Wildcats are doing in the run game and I think they can expose Miss St there as they have gave up yards on the ground so far and have played weak teams as well. The Bulldogs lost a ton from last season and even though they are 2-0 it is showing so far. They had a very ugly win week 1 over La Layayette beating them by only 10 despite being +3 in turnovers. They were also +3 in turnovers in game 2 which ultimately lead to them covering that game. The Wildcats have had one turnover so far and I believe they control the game here and also not to mention this is a nice revenge spot for Kansas St as well |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State +33.5 v. Georgia | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show | |
I think this is way too many points here for Georgia. We know the Bulldogs are a very good team, but this is now their 3rd week in a row playing a lower level team even though they played Candy week 1 and I doubt their interest level is too high here. Arkansas St will sure be motivated here and are coming off a very dominate win over UNLV. Another main reason here is that Georgia has a huge look ahead with Notre Dame coming to town next week |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show | |
This game here will easily be a sharp/square divide. Maryland is off to a great start right now but beating Howard and a bad Syracuse team isn't that great. I actually had them last week in that win over Cuse. Temple is more than a capable team here and have a defense that can contain the Terms. I also think Temple will have this game circled here now that Maryland has came on the scene an they are also coming off a bye |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 80 h 51 m | Show | |
I like the spot here for this Wake Forest team. Yes, UNC is riding high right now but following those those last two games and now playing their first true road game will be a tough task. Also I can't believe I'm saying this but Wake has a better offense than both South Carolina and Miami. Also UNC was extremely lucky against Miami completing that 4th and 17 or else the game is over. I think this is the perfect slip up for Wake Forest here |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
I have a hard time seeing one of these teams get to 30 points here tonight so with that I have to make a play on the under. Both defenses were actually a lot better than their final scores indicated. The Bucs had two pick sixes on offense and the Panthers had a bad ruling against them giving the Rams 1st and goal and setting up an easy score. I think both teams clean up the ugly turnovers here and we see a classic defensive division battle. The under has hit here 3 of the last 4 between these two teams |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
With this line now now hitting 3 this is a big time overreaction here. They are saying the Denver is nearly a double digit favorite @ Denver? I'm not buying into that at all. Sure, Oakland has had their distractions, but I think now that AB is gone this time will rise to the occasion and ball out tonight. I think they win this game outright |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 3-33 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 57 m | Show | |
I think the Steelers are being undervalued here. Yes, they lost Brown but I think that was for the better of the team. I know Tomlin has had his struggles against the Patriots but I think they can easily keep it within this number here. There are a lot of questions with the Patriots team with the loss of Gronk this season and Edelman another year older. Both teams have solid defenses and I think Big Ben will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this season and wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers won outright |
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09-08-19 | 49ers v. Bucs | 31-17 | Loss | -118 | 51 h 55 m | Show | |
I just really like the hire here of Bruce Arians and believe he will make a ton of difference as we saw first hand in Arizona. He can and will handle Winston and make him a better QB by cutting down on those turnovers. I t the Bucs wi be a competitive team and it’s not like they don’t have any weapons around him. 49ers are a team that seems to get love with Jimmy under the helm but I’m just not sold. He hasnt looked anything special this preseason. I definitely think this line rises. The only thing the Niners really have going for them in this situation is the later start. I just believe we see a much improved Bucs team |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 94 h 43 m | Show |
This is my favorite NFL play of the week. If you have listened to my NFL win totals podcast you know I am down on the Rams this season. I just don't think the Rams can repeat the season they had and I think Carolina will have a major bounce back. The Panthers were rolling last season before Newton went down. The defense for the Rams will take a step back this season and Carolina's offense will be even better now all healthy. I think the wrong team is favored here in this game |
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09-07-19 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. North Carolina | 25-28 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 13 m | Show | |
I didn't think we would see this line drop so much. I have to take Miami here now. So UNC beat a South Carolina that was clearly over valued. So give UNC some credit yes, but this line preseason would have been around the 10 range so clear value with Miami just based on 1 game. We saw UNC celebrating like they won the ACC and Coach Brown was even crying. I think Miami has a legit defense and Howell won't have as easy of time with this Miami team. Also worth mentioning Miami is coming off a bye as well |
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09-07-19 | Tulane +18 v. Auburn | 6-24 | Push | 0 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
I had this Tulane team in week 1 vs FIU and it was an easy winner as they dominated from the get go. Tulane racked up nearly 500 total yards of offense. Their game is clearly played on the ground and I think they can move the ball on Auburn. We saw a lucky Auburn team come back and somehow cover that game against Oregon as they covered for in the final minute of the game. This is a major letdown here for Auburn IMO and doubt they will be really motivated here coming off that win. |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
So Texas St was probably in over their heads in week 1 against a very good Texas AM squad. I think this week sets up perfect for them to grab a win. Even if they don't pull the upset I think very good chance they keep within a TD. Wyoming coming off a huge win for them over Missouri but they were completely out played in that game but the ball literally bounced their way. The Cowboys weren't a team that was expected to do anything this season and now it seems like a lot of respect given their way because of that win |
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09-07-19 | North Texas +3.5 v. SMU | 27-49 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 32 m | Show | |
The wrong team is simply favored here in this game. SMU is getting a lot of credit for winning on the road at Arkansas St. Arkansas St is facing an uphill battle this season as they are dealing with the death of the coaches wife. SMU was +2 in the turnover and still only won a by a touchdown. Also I love Fine , the QB for North Texas here and while some might say revenge here, NT blew them out of the water as only 3 point favorites. I think they win this outright as well |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -7 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
I think this line is pretty short here all things considered. UCLA was a 2.5-3 point dog @ Cincy a very well respected non power 5 team which means they would have been a 3 point favorite at home over them. Well based on that performance we are seeing IMO another overreaction in the line here. SDSU is only 4 point difference? UCLA had a lot of bad momentum swings in that Cincy and 2 turnovers were simply because the QB dropped the ball. I think they take care of business here and blow out this SDSU team who struggled with Weber St last week winning 6-0 |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 50 m | Show | |
Call me a sucker here but I will roll with Nebraska. I think this is way too much an overreaction from last week. Yes, the cornhuskers looked terrible on offense but I have to believe that part of that is because Frost didn't really want to show anything. This is also the ultimate revenge spot here with Colorado coming into Lincoln last year and winning. Colorado's defense was very poor against a bad Colorado St team. They gave up over 500 total yards of offense which has to be a concern. I think Nebraska can control the game and we see a whole different team from last week |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse v. Maryland -1.5 | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 42 h 47 m | Show | |
I like this Maryland team here and a large part of that is because of Va Tech transfer QB in Jackson. Maryland granted they played Howard, but they did score 79 points which is impressive. Also a thing you look at is when a road ranked team is a dog to an unranked team. If you just back that spot blindly over the years you would be extremely profitable. Cuse is clearly down from that 10 win season last year and are struggling on offense and still are getting credit from that season |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest -19 v. Rice | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
I was really impressed with Wake Forest even though I got bit buy the hook as they won by 3 over Utah St but not covering. Wake put up nearly 600 yards of offense in this game and now face a very bad Rice team. Rice were 23 point dogs to Army last week and covered only losing by 7. They are getting some respect because of that. I just think that Wake will put up big numbers and name their score here. |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | 14-45 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on this Texas team this season and think they will have their hands full here. I think people are giving them a ton of credit for beating Georgia in the bowl. The major concern is with the defense in this game only returning 3 starters from a flat out terrible defense especially against the pass. With a veteran QB in Smith for the Bulldogs I expect them to put up some points on that Texas D. This LA Tech team went on the road @ LSU last season and only lost by 17. I don't see them being caught up in the moment here @ Texas in a night game. Will take my chances with the veteran LA Tech offense vs the new Texas D. |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 67 h 45 m | Show | |
I think this Virginia team has high hope this season to represent the Coastal to play Clemson for the ACC Title. They have 14 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year. They could have easily won 9 in the regular season losing the last two games both in OT. Their worst performance last season was at home vs this Pitt team and I guarantee they want that revenge. Virginia returns 8 guys on defense that was a top 20 unit. Pitt only returns 11 total starters They were an average defense last year and below average on offense. Even though they are at home I don't think Virginia's D will have any trouble shutting them down. Pitt has been so one dimensional and I think we see a step back here from a team believe it or not played for the ACC title last season |
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08-31-19 | South Carolina -10.5 v. North Carolina | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 22 m | Show | |
I will admit little bummed I missed out on a better number here but I just can't ignore what I see on paper. I think North Carolina is in for another brutal season. This team only won two games last season and have a very inexperienced from 7 on defense which I think will hurt them big time. I South Carolina is a team that I think can surprise in the SEC East this season. QB Jake Bentley is surrounded by solid weapons. Their defense will improve a Toni because they were so young last season and also now are healthy. The talent gap between these two teams are huge. I think the Gamecocks roll UNC. The Mack Brown experiment is soon to be over. |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 | 36-31 | Loss | -103 | 60 h 2 m | Show | |
I think FSU is due for a prime bounce back year obviously. They have Briles in @ OC now and that is a huge addition to this offense as he has had a lot of success everywhere he has been. FSU by far has the better athletes and now in year 2 of Taggart you have to expect a major step forward. Even though Boise is now a house hold name and probably the best team in the Mountain West I think they will take a step back compared to most years. They have to replace their all do everything in Rypien at QB. While I'm not saying Boise isn't going to be good I just think they are out matched here and running into a very hungry team to start the season |
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08-31-19 | Toledo +12 v. Kentucky | 24-38 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 6 m | Show | |
I think Toledo is worth a look at this underdog price. The Rockets will be the best team in the MAC. They return 6 starters from an explosive offense and even though they lost some skilled players at WR, I think the return of QB Guadagni will provide the leadership to this team again. Kentucky is a team coming off a remarkable season going 11-2. They just simply can't repeat that because they have lost so much especially on defense. Their secondary is all new and they had to replace their stud LB Allen. With only 4 starters back on that side of the ball, I think Toledo can move it down the field and score some points. Also Kentucky their lost stud RB Snell to the draft as well. For a team not use to having that much talent it's very hard for them to replace. I'm not calling for the upset but I don't see Toledo getting blown out here |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest -3.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 46 m | Show | |
I like this Wake Forest team this season with 13 returning starters and are coming off a nice bowl win over Memphis. On offense I this team will still be solid as most people wouldn't have guessed but they finished ranked 28 total last year. Defense is where they need to improve especially right away given the fact they are healthy. I think we see a step back here from Utah St. Yes, they return their stud QB Love who is fun to watch, but he will have to carry the load the whole time and I don't see that happening as its just him with one other starter on offense. I also think they are getting a little to much love because of their year last season that they went 11-2. It's going to be an uphill battle for Utah St. |
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08-30-19 | UMass v. Rutgers -15 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
Rutgers won 1 game last year and it was their first and proceeded to lose 11 straight after that. They did play well at the end of the season covering 5 straight games. They return freshman QB Sitkowski who I think will make a nice step forward under 2nd year OC McNulty. Umass though I expect to be just a bad team this season. They return a total of 8 starters here and only 3 on defense that was horrible and gave up nearly 43 ppg. Rutgers will score point here and look for Rutgers to be a nice ATS team this season |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane -3 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
While FIU is coming off a very good season going 9-3 and they do return their leader Morgan @ QB. While FIU will be good on offense I think Tulane returning 8 starters will be able to slow them down and be much improved on that side of the ball. The main key here though is that Tulane can run it down your throat. They had a top 25 rushing attack last season and will again this season. FIU only returns 3 of the front 7 and they struggled big time against the run last season and clearly they will again IMO. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -135 | 76 h 30 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
Here is another game where I think the public will be all over the dog. The Rams werent a great team ATS this season, but they were 7-1 at home. The Cowboys were terrible on the road with a 3-5 record and that is counting a lucky comeback against the Giants in the final game. The Rams defense will have their way with Dak and shut Zeke down. |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
I actually think the betting public is on the Colts here. The Chiefs haven't been covering recently and a large part was because of the Hunt situation. I just think Mahomes and company with an extra week will get it done. I know Reid hasn't been great in the playoffs but this is also his first time with a QB like Mahomes. The betting public loved the Colts last week and cashed and will be on them again. I think KC wins easily |
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01-07-19 | Alabama -5 v. Clemson | 16-44 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 36 m | Show | |
With this number dropping I have to take Bama. I think people are quick to forget since Bama didn’t cover vs Oklahoma that they were up 28-0 and went very conservative as they had the game in wraps early. Clemson hasn’t seen a team like this Bama squad. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
I like the Texans here. I think the public love the Colts more because they remember them beating the Texans @ Houston. I just think the Texans will shut down the Colts run game and force Luck with throw 35+ times which means a couple turnovers will likely happen. Texans will make them pay and at this price we aren't covering a number just winning the game |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -5.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -113 | 655 h 47 m | Show |
Grabbed this one and really like Ohio St. First, Washington hasn't live up to expectations this year and the PAC 12 was really a down conference this season. The main factor here though is all motivation. Ohio St will want to win this one for Meyer as he is stepping down after this game. I think Ohio St gets on them early never lets up. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky v. Penn State -6 | 27-24 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
I just think Kentucky was a fraud all season long. This team can seriously only run the ball and with a lot of time to prepare for it I think Penn St can shut it down. Penn St has the better athletes and coach. I actually think they will be motivated here for this game. I will gladly lay this number |
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01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
I dont think Iowa has a chance in this game. When you look back at Iowa you realize they beat zero good teams. This is a total mis match IMO and Miss St will be able to shut down the very one dimensional Iowa team. Also Iowa is without their best offensive player who happens to play TE. I think Miss St puts a number on them |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M -7 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 146 h 27 m | Show | |
I like the Aggies here for the sure fact that they have a ton more talent here. The Aggies finished the season by beating LSU and I think under first year head coach Jimbo Fisher they will be excited here. NC ST had a pretty easy schedule and I dont think Finley their QB is anything special at all. This could get ugly |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern +7 v. Utah | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This is just too many points for a NW team who will be fired up for this game. They had a great year making to the Big Ten Championship. Utah is getting their QB back here for this game but these teams are so very similar that I dont see a blowout happening. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State v. Oregon -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
All I have heard is how good MSU is in the dog role. I just think that this Oregon will be ultra motivated here with their stud QB Herbert coming back next season. Michigan St has some major issues on offense as they had scored 24,6,6,14 to finish the season. Oregon is a lot better than people actually think and with this low spread they take care of business. |
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12-30-18 | Bears v. Vikings -4 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
I see no interest whatsoever from the Bears in this spot. They already will host a home playoff game next week and it will be against the Vikings. Their main concern will be keeping Trubisky healthy which means a very conservative game plan and I wouldn't be surprised to see him being pulled. Vikings have all the motivation here with a win and their in. I think they roll Chicago |
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12-30-18 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
I think the betting public will be all over the Browns here. While, I do love Baker and the Browns next year I just think they are in over their heads here. During this nice run by the Browns they have only played 2 playoff teams and lost both by double digits. Baltimore defense is just nasty as we saw them shut down the Chargers. I think they get to Baker cause some turnovers and control the clock. |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -3.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 52 m | Show | |
I grabbed this line early and no surprise it has climbed a lot. Buffalo is a team that is still playing very hard evidence last week even though they aren't in the mix for anything. Josh Allen provides a spark for them and their defense at home is flat out nasty. They also for sure have revenge on their minds here as they let one slip away in Miami just a few weeks ago in which they dominated the stats. |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
I think the odds makers have made a mistake here in this game. This game still means something for the Texans as they want to win the division. Also at risk is a first round home game which they want so the effort level will be at an all time high. Jags are done plain and simple and I dont think they show up even with Bortles who lead them to a win last week |
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12-30-18 | Jets +14.5 v. Patriots | 3-38 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
This is just too many points here for the Patriots especially given the fact that the total is 46. If the Jets can score 14 which I think they will they can cover this number. The Patriots just want to get the game over with a come away with a win. The division is wrapped up. Darnold is playing well for the Jets I still think we get a good effort from them |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma +14 v. Alabama | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
This is just a ton of points of here. I know Bama is the real deal but I also know how they looked without a healthy Tua. Clearly Bama has more talent and is better coached no denying that, but for them to cover two touchdowns. I just think Oklahoma can get a few stops and Oklahoma with Murray will give them all they want on defense. Murray is just a special player you dont see come around often and I trust him to keep this close |
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12-29-18 | Florida +6 v. Michigan | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
I like Florida here today playing in their home state. This is just a pure motivation game. Michigan had their dreams crushed when they were blown out vs Ohio St. They had hopes of playing for a National Title, but that isn't the case now. They are missing several key starters here who are sitting out. Florida does have a defense and with some guys out on Michigan's defense I think Florida can do just enough to get bye |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This game just simply means more to Iowa St who some would say this is their best bowl game ever. This program has taken a turn for the better under Campbell. Washington St on the other hand had their dreams crushed as they were alive for the Playoffs and lost to their rival Washington and now are playing here. Good bowl yes, but not what they had hoped for. Also Iowas St has faced teams like them all year long in the Big 12 with the pass happy offenses. |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse -1 v. West Virginia | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 53 h 17 m | Show | |
I really like Cuse here and all the motivation clearly lies with them. They are looking to finish their on a very high note while WVU has simply no motivation as their leader and starting QB Will Grier has decided to skip the game and go pro. WVU will fold here. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
So I think the wrong team is favored here in this game. The Badgers had a down year there is no taking that away from them, but does Miami have the motivation edge for a a bowl game played in New York? I sure dont think so at all. The fact that Hornibrook is out I actually think is better as he really hurt them based on his health. The Badgers will win this game on the ground and I wouldn't be surprised if it got ugly. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
Not much crazy in depth here, but I just trust Duke here coming from the ACC. The talent gap is on their side here as well. They have the better coach and will also have a lot bigger fan base traveling to Louisiana for this game. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
I like the Raiders here tonight to get the job done. This is a unique situation where this could be the last game ever in their stadium that has a very passionate fan base. With that being on everyone's mind I think we get the max effort here. The Raiders are playing tough covering 4 of their last 5 games. With revenge on their mind here from a 1 point loss earlier I think Oakland gets it done tonight. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
I really like the Seahawks here are can clinch a spot in the playoffs for sure even though they will be in either way. Seattle and Wilson have been a great home dog over the years and in a prime time game you have to take them. Ever since the hunt issue came along the Chiefs haven't covered a game without him and in fact the Chiefs haven't covered since the first week of November. Say what you want about KC being up a lot and teams racking up yards, but this defense doesnt pass the eye test at all. Seattle will control the game with long drives and scores and will win this game |
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12-23-18 | Bears v. 49ers +4.5 | 14-9 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
Yes, I know the 49ers line has been adjusted here from the previous weeks, but they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. While the Bears have been a surprise this season I think they come in this game with no care in the world after they just won their division for the first time in a while. This is a perfect flat spot for them coming off that hard fought division game vs the Packers with another division game on deck @ Minnesota. I know the Niners will play hard and at this home dog price again will take them |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -4 | 17-7 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 44 m | Show | |
I will take the Dolphins here as I just think odds makers are off on this one. I think last week was a pretty big indication of were the Jags players heads are. They laid an egg to a team that had to sign a 4th QB and he hadn't played in the NFL for quite some time. The Dolphins have been a very good home team and are still in playoff contention. I think they show up against a Jags team that has packed it in |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles -2.5 | 30-32 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 43 m | Show | |
Maybe I am a prisoner of the moment here with the Eagles, but this team is clearly better with Foles at QB as a hurt Wentz literally hurt this team by playing. Eagles now have all the motivation in the world here coming off that big win. I know people will say the Texans are motivated but they are basically in the playoffs. They will be without Miller tomorrow which is a huge loss for their running game. Eagles defense is playing well and they have a major home field advantage. |