Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-22 | 76ers v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
These teams are in pretty similar spots. Philadelphia, third in the East with a 31-20 record, is a little better off right now. But Dallas, fifth in the West with a 29-23 record, has the home court edge for tonight. The Mavs can’t be too happy about the fact they’ve lost two in a row and that those losses were to the Magic and Thunder. Something else I quickly noticed is how their games have been higher scoring of late. The last five, all of which have gone Over, averaged 231.0 points. That’s up, by a lot, from 209.9 for the year. So my instinct tells me that Dallas is probably due to have a lower-scoring game. Enter the Sixers, who typically do a terrific job defensively. They allow just 105.5 points per game. Only once in the last seven games has Philly given up more than 109. The Under is 18-7 in all Dallas’ home games. Philadelphia is 15-5 Under when they are an underdog. The Mavericks allow the fifth-fewest number of points per possession in the league. Their last game, a 120-114 loss to OKC, went to overtime. It was tied at 103 at the end of regulation. Take the Under here. |
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02-01-22 | Pelicans v. Pistons OVER 214.5 | Top | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The Pelicans and Pistons’ combined record is 30-69 (straight up). But both have been playing (somewhat) better recently. Since a horrible 3-16 start to the year, the Pelicans have basically played .500 ball. The Pistons are 5-7 in their last 12 games, still not good, but a marked improvement from losing 30 of their first 37 games. So expect some points in this Tuesday night matchup. Now I know the Pelicans have lost four in a row and haven’t scored 100 in the last two. But expect better shooting here, especially if leading scorer Brandon Ingram returns. The Pelicans also have to start making some threes. In the last three games, they’ve gone 19 of 96 from long-range. That’s just 19.8 percent! Detroit is not known as an offensive force, but they just scored 115 in a win over Cleveland on Sunday. The past six games, a stretch where the team is 5-1 ATS, has shown sizable improvement at the offensive end. Neither team is all that good defensively. New Orleans just gave up 27 points in the final nine minutes in a loss to Cleveland last night. By the way, when playing with zero days rest, the Pelicans give up 113 points per game and have won just once. The Over is 16-6 the last 22 times Detroit has been favored. |
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02-01-22 | Panthers v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
A very potent Panthers offense lit up the goal light 8 times last night and 22 times in their last 4 games. They are playing on back to back games, are not quite as dominant on the road, and will be without Bobrovsky in the net tonight. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and even with Shesterkin in net are averaging over 3 goals a game against. It will be hard to slow the Panthers down, even on the road, and the Rangers are down a couple of starting D-men. Look for lots of offense from both sides. The total is very high, but a high score has been the norm when these two teams meet. Even with the total at 6.5 goals, I am still wagering on this gamel to go over. |
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01-31-22 | Raptors v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Both these teams are coming off wins as they jockey for playoff position. Atlanta has won seven in a row, its longest streak of the season and currently the longest active win streak in the Eastern Conference. They played yesterday, defeating the Lakers by a score of 129-121. Toronto was a 124-120 winner Saturday in Miami. That game went to triple overtime and everyone in the Raptors’ starting five played at least 53 minutes. I’m looking for this to be a much lower-scoring contest. Toronto & Miami were tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. The Hawks shot 58.3% yesterday, which is something I don’t see happening again. The Under is 8-2 when the Hawks face an Atlantic Division opponent. This includes a 108-92 win over Boston that took place on Friday. Before Sunday, each of the Hawks’ previous four games stayed Under. Going into 3 OT’s with Miami stopped the Raptors’ 6-0 Under run in road games. This team only shoots 43.8% from the field, for the season, and has topped 105 in regulation only two times since January 7th. Go with the Under in this one. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
The Rams face the 49ers for the third time this season, and many reputations rest on the outcome. The two defenses will have a huge impact on this game. Yes, Stafford is on a roll, but the 49ers are tough on quarterbacks, averaging 5 sacks a game in the last three games, are 6th in passing yards allowed this year, and hold opposing Qbs to a rating of 83 over the last three weeks. A rattled Stafford is not nearly the same quarterback. He is not immune to throwing the ball away. Should the Rams look to the running game, it doesn’t get any easier. The 49ers have only allowed 69 rush yards on average in their last three games. What can we expect from the 49ers’ offense on Sunday? Probably a concentrated effort to run the ball, slowing the game down, and keeping Stafford off the field. It worked for them in their last win against the Rams. Their Qb, Garappolo has not impressed lately, with a QB rating of only 79 in his last three games. The 49ers appear to have more faith in their running game. A note to bear in mind. Their double threat magician Deebo Samuel, terrific lately, may not be 100%. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Rams’ defense. They are strong against the run; fifth and improving in rush yards/game and rush yards/attempt. They are equally tough on Qbs, holding opposing Qbs to a rating of 71 over the last three games. The 49ers are a very good road team, and have dominated the Rams for some time. I am not confident in their ability to outscore the Rams, but I do think they will hold the final score down. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
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01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls OVER 229 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Over the last couple of weeks, Portland and Chicago have both undergone a reversal of fortunes. Portland got off to a bad start, but has won 7 of its last 11 games. This run now has them 10th in the Western Conference, which would be a play-in spot. Out in the East, Chicago had occupied the top spot for a bit. But now the Bulls are in second after dropping 7 of 10. I expect this Sunday matchup to be pretty high-scoring. The Bulls are having issues defensively. Friday was the third time this month that they surrendered more than 130 points. They let the Spurs shoot 52.6% and lost 131-122. On the bright side, the Bulls are still scoring. Three straight games with 111 or more points and they are top 11 in the league, scoring 110.6 points per game.. Now Portland also has issues defensively. They are bottom five in the league, giving up 112.3 points per game. Even with their recent resurgence, the problems at the defensive end have largely persisted. They gave up 132 points in a loss to Dallas earlier in the week. Four of the Blazers’ last five games have gone Over the total and this one should as well. This season, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 to the Over, at home, when the total is 220 pts or higher. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -112 | 78 h 46 m | Show |
Bengals vs Chiefs It is hard to see this as anything other than a shootout. Mahomes, Burrow and their various stellar targets appear to be at peak form. The Bills, who possess much better defense than the Bengals, could not control Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bengals are 26th in pass yards against, and 8th but sinking badly in rushing yards allowed and sacks. It is hard to imagine them in any way controlling Mahomes and Co. The Bengals beat the Chiefs at their own game 4 weeks ago, and the number of points given up by KC to high-octane pass offenses this year is very high. Burrow takes a lickin’ and still keeps kickin’ every week and one of these days the Bengals lack of an O-line is going to bite them. It may not be this week as KC is only 29th in sacks. I’m looking forward to this game. Who knows, it may even surpass the Bills/Chiefs barn-burner last week. I do think the points will pile up in a big way. Take the over. |
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01-29-22 | Tennessee v. Texas OVER 126.5 | Top | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Tennessee and Texas, two ranked teams, do battle in Austin Saturday night as part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. This is Rick Barnes’ return to Austin, where he coached for 17 seasons. I anticipate this being a higher-scoring affair than expected. The Volunteers have won their last three games, but still in my mind is the memory of them giving up 107 points to Kentucky not that long ago. I suppose you could try and call that an aberration, but the fact is three of the last four times the Vols have gone on the road, they’ve allowed 70 or more points. They also just gave up 71 to Florida Wednesday night. Texas tends not to give up many points, but they also rarely face a team that is as good offensively as Tennessee is. Consider that, against Florida, the Vols put up 78 points and that was despite having a five minute stretch where they didn’t even attempt a single shot! The Longhorns were very dominant in their last game, rolling TCU in what was a 23-point win. I just think that both teams are capable of scoring 65 points tonight. That would mean the Over hits. |
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01-29-22 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 139 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
We’ve got Michigan State coming off a loss and Michigan needing this game pretty badly. The unranked Wolverines have put together a nice three-game win streak, but are still only 10-7 on the season. They need more wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Winning at East Lansing would be a big help. But the Spartans just dropped a one-point decision at Illinois earlier in the week. It was low-scoring, 56-55, and that’s what I think this game will be as well. During the three-game win streak, Michigan has shot better than 57 percent from the floor. There’s simply no way that can continue. Not against a MSU team that is keeping its opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season. Visiting teams are hitting less than 30 percent from three at the Breslin Center. Of course, MSU shot very poorly in the Illinois game, making just 34.5 percent of its attempts. The Under has hit each of the previous four times Sparty has been a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. |
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01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Spurs’ home games tend to be rather high scoring, so I’ll bet this one to “go high.” An average of 226.5 total points per game is scored when they open the doors at the Alamo. While we need a few more than that tonight, I think we get it. Chicago is getting back to full strength and has scored 111 points in each of its last two contests. They are top ten in the league in scoring and had a very efficient night vs. Toronto on Wednesday. Both DeRozan and LaVine had 23 or more points. San Antonio is also top ten in scoring. They could only manage 110 points in their last game, which was the second night of a back to back against Memphis. But the game before that, against Houston, they finished with 134 points. Expect the Spurs to shoot better here than they did against the Grizzlies from long distance. Making only 24% of their attempts in the Memphis game was their worst effort on threes since November 18th. The Bulls also haven’t shot it that well from long range of late. But they are 37.7% for the season, so expect a turnaround from them as well. Take the Over. |
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01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers OVER 219 | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
The Lakers now have Anthony Davis back, so maybe they finally get going? With Davis logging 25 minutes in his first game in more than a month, the Lakers downed the Nets 106-96 back on Tuesday. LA had gone 7-10 in the 17 games that Davis missed. Problem is that tonight the Lakers still have to deal with Joel Embiid. Embiid has been a beast lately. Tuesday marked the sixth time this year that Embiid has gone for 40+ points and 10+ rebounds in a game. The 76ers won 117-107, beating the New Orleans Pelicans. I think that both the Lakers and Sixers are ready to put up some points Thursday night on TNT. Let’s not forget LeBron James, who has been scoring at will recently. He has 18 straight games with 26 or more points. He went for 33 in the win at Brooklyn. Three of the last four games, Philly has scored 115 or more points. They shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring on the Lakers, who are bottom five in scoring defense. The Over has hit in four of the Lakers' last five road games and seven of their last 10 overall. That’s how I see this one going. |
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01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Both of these teams could badly use a win. Washington is off what coach Wes Unseld Jr termed the team’s “worst loss of the season,” a 116-87 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics (I had Boston!) While the Wizards have lost three in a row and four of their last five, the Clippers have dropped four of their last six, including a 110-102 decision at New York on Sunday. Keep in mind that LA’s last win saw them rally from a 24-point deficit to beat Philadelphia by one on the road. If nothing else, Washington will shoot better in this game compared to Sunday when they made just 35.5 percent of their attempts from the floor. Three of their key scorers - Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - combined to shoot 0 for 14 from three-point range. Giving up an average of 111.4 points over their last five games, the Wizards will HAVE to shoot better. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Washington has been favored, with all those games taking place at home. The Over has also hit 23 of the previous 32 meetings. So go with that here. |
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01-24-22 | Blues v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
St Louis has been a sharp 7-2 in January, but Binnington has been in the net for both of losses. He seems to have lost his luster this year, and had not played regularly in January. In the Flames net, Markstrom has had his moments, but has been off more often than on lately. Wins have been rare for the Flames in January with both offense and defense struggling. Not so the Blues, but they are on the wrong side of a back to back. The total is average today, and doesn’t accurately reflect the performance of the net-minders at this moment. Expect some goal production from both teams and take the over. |
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01-24-22 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 204 | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Knicks are playing the second game of a back to back after defeating the Clippers 110-102 at home yesterday. That was a fairly “high scoring” result by their standard. Going back to Christmas, New York has held nine different opponents below 100 points. At the same time, there have been six occasions where they failed to crack the century mark themselves. Cleveland is coming off a really low scoring win. They defeated Oklahoma City 94-87 on Saturday, holding the Thunder’s starting frontcourt to 5 of 25 shooting. It was the sixth win the last seven games for the surprising Cavaliers. This promises to be a low-scoring affair as well. These are two of the top five scoring defenses in the NBA right now. The Cavs are allowing just 101.5 points/game at home. The Knicks are allowing just 103.3 points/game on the road. The Knicks typically don’t shoot the ball very well. Their FG% for the year is only 43.6 and they’ve been below that three of the previous four games, including yesterday. The Under is 14-7 in Cavs’ home games. In addition to possibly being without PG Rajon Rondo (questionable), who has missed the last six games, the team will definitely be without Lauri Markkanen as he sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win. Look for this game to stay UNDER. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total. |
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01-21-22 | Thunder v. Hornets OVER 221.5 | Top | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is not strong offensively. They actually rank dead last in the NBA in points per game as well as three-point shooting, and have scored 97 points or less in six of their last 11 games. But I think they’ve got an opportunity to break out tonight against Charlotte, who allows the second most points per game in the league. The Hornets’ defense has been a bit more sound of late while winning six of their last seven games. Three of those games have seen them allow fewer than 100 points. Five times they’ve allowed no more than 106. But eventually they’re going to revert back to their “old ways” and tonight might just be that night. The Thunder are coming off three consecutive games where they shot below 44%. It’s tough to shoot any worse than they did Wednesday in San Antonio when they made only 38.8% of their field goal attempts. That included 25% from three. I predict OKC will in fact shoot better tonight, leading to more points scored. Charlotte is 11-4 Over this season when facing a team that has a losing record. That’s the way I’m going here. |
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01-20-22 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 121-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Something you probably did not expect to hear is that each of the last eight games involving the Warriors have seen the losing team fail to score 100 points. Twice the winning team didn’t either. The Under is somehow only 5-3 in that stretch of games for Golden State. That seems surprising. They scored 138 points in a win over Chicago last week. But other than that, only one of the other seven games has seen more than 218 total points scored. Indiana is just searching for wins. They got one yesterday by beating the Lakers 111-104. But that was just the second time the Pacers have been victorious since Christmas. The Under is 5-2 when they are in the second night of a back to back this season. Golden State has been a bit of an Under machine this year. All but 15 games have gone low this season. They are 24-9 Under as a favorite. Conversely, Indiana is 17-6 Under when they are an underdog. So this has all the makings of a low-scoring game. In just their second home game together in 2 ½ years, Curry, Thompson and Green combined to shoot 20 of 37 in the last game, against Detroit. Collectively, they probably aren’t going to shoot that well again. Grab the UNDER |
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01-19-22 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M OVER 143.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The last time Kentucky played, they put up 107 points. That would be impressive against anyone, but to do that against Tennessee, a nationally ranked team that’s also fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, well that’s just awesome. Proud to say I had the Wildcats against Tennessee. Look for them to score a lot again tonight as they visit Texas A&M. Kentucky is averaging 84 points per game this season. They’ve gone over 90 in five of the last eight games. But A&M can score too. Especially when they’re at home. The Aggies average 80.9 points here in College Station. I know that the last two games, both Unders, were low-scoring. But before that A&M had a streak of six straight games scoring at least 80 points. Frankly, I’m stunned this total isn’t higher. A&M, who is on an eight-game win streak, has gone Over all four times they’ve been an underdog this year. Kentucky won’t shoot as well as they did against Tennessee. But they will still score 75 or more points and that’s all we need. Take the OVER |
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01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I was “spot on” calling for the Knicks’ game to go Under yesterday. They scored just 87 points in a loss to the Hornets, here at home. They only gave up 97. As I wrote in the analysis, many of the Knicks recent contests have been low-scoring affairs. In the last 12 games, they’ve held the opponent under 100 points. Five of those 12 games have seen them fail to get to 100 themselves. But a matchup against Minnesota on Tuesday should change all of that. The Timberwolves are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA. They are putting up 110.1 points per contest and that number grows to 114.1 on the road. Over the last five games, the T’wolves have averaged 125.6 points. Minny blew out Golden State Sunday to move within a game of .500. But don’t read that much into them holding the Warriors to just 99 points. Neither Steph Curry or Draymond Green played in that game. The Knicks are now right at .500 after Monday’s loss. When these teams met right before the New Year, it was a 96-88 Knicks victory. But that game saw both sides shoot very poorly, especially at the free throw line where they combined to miss 17 of 36 attempts. I look for the rematch to be a lot higher scoring, so take the OVER |
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01-17-22 | Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 97-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Two teams fighting for position in the Eastern Conference meet in this early Monday tip. Charlotte is 7th with a 23-20 record and New York is 10th with a 22-21 record. As you can tell, it’s a tightly packed race for those play-in spots to the playoff tournament. Charlotte had a four-game win streak snapped on Friday with a bad loss to Orlando. They were 11-point favorites in the 116-109 setback. I expect the Hornets to tighten up their defense here, after allowing the Magic to shoot 51% from the field. The Under is 4-0 this season when the Hornets play on exactly two days' rest. The Knicks are also coming off a relatively high scoring game, only they won, 117-108 at Atlanta. It was the third straight win for the Knicks and they’ve covered the spread in all three games. High-scoring games have been uncommon for them, however. Their last five games have averaged just 202.6 total points. Saturday’s win over the Hawks was NY’s highest scoring game since before Christmas. Going back to X-Mas, the Knicks have held 8 of 11 opponents below 100 points. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-17-22 | Purdue v. Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
For the first time this season, Purdue is an underdog. That’s because Monday’s opponent, Illinois, is no joke. The Fighting Illini deserve to be ranked much higher than #25. No need to spend much time singing the Illini’s praises to Boilermaker fans though. Illinois has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points. But Purdue is also very good and I don’t want to fade them either. What I will do though is take the Over. Neither team has much trouble scoring and you should expect plenty of points in this early Monday tipoff. Purdue is putting up 85.6 points per contest. That’s sixth most in the country. They scored 92 on Friday in a blowout win over Nebraska. It was the fourth straight Boilermakers’ game to go Over the total. Illinois is averaging 79.7 points this season, 83.8 when at home. Their last game, a 68-53 win over Michigan, was pretty low-scoring. But that was after putting up at least 76 points in 10 straight games. My view is that Purdue is the better team, but Illinois is undoubtedly hotter. Both teams can obviously score. The Over is 10-2 in the Boilermakers’ previous 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER here. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 15-31 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
The Eagles are not going to be scared off their run-focused game plan easily; the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense is not quite what it was last year or even earlier in the season. The Bucs haven’t faced a quarterback who runs as well as Hurts does lately, and the Eagles have the best run offense in the league, with two solid RBs who will figure into the picture. Still, Tampa does not give points up easily. Fifth in the league in points allowed, they do allow passing yards, but not so many points, and do pressure the opposing quarterback very well. The Eagles have been successful at limiting pass and run yards this year, but between the Eagles’ lack of QB pressure, and the Buc’s very good O-line, Brady will likely be a force to be reckoned with. Throwing into the wind and the rain will likely have some impact on Brady’s game, and the Buccaneers are far less effective moving the football on the ground. I like the total in this game. The Buccaneers have some key players who are still banged up. The weather conditions suggest a slower than usual game, and possibly more of a running game from the Buccaneers. The Eagles may find points hard to come by on Saturday, and may have a little success limiting Brady. The total seems high in this situation. Take the Eagles and Buccaneers to go under on Sunday. |
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01-15-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 224.5 | Top | 96-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Lakers and Nuggets are both fighting to get into the top six in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently occupy sixth position, but are just a game up on Saturday’s opponent. The home team looked very good its last time out as they blasted an undermanned Portland team 140-108. Los Angeles hasn’t been as lucky of late. The Lakers have lost two in a row and in doing so have given up 125 and 127 points. They let Memphis and Sacramento shoot 54.5% from the field. With Anthony Davis and others out, the scoring burden has fallen on LeBron James. But James has been up to the task, even playing center at times, and he’s scored 30 or more in 11 of the last 12 games. Given how the Lakers have played defense recently and how the Nuggets shot in their last game, there’s no doubt in my mind that the home team will score a bunch tonight. The Lakers should follow suit though. The Over is 4-0 their last four games and 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off a loss. The Over is also 4-0 the last four Lakers-Nuggets matchups in Denver. Take the OVER |
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01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia has already gone Under in each of its last three games. But they did allow Charlotte to shoot 51.7% Wednesday in a loss. I don’t think they’ll let Boston shoot that well. The Celtics are off a game where they shot 51.3%, so they are probably due for a downturn anway. That 51.3% shooting performance led to a 119-110 win in Indiana for the Celtics on Wednesday. Boston had three 30+ point quarters, made 18 three-pointers and went 21 of 25 from the line. Tatum and Brown combined for 67 points. No way the team will be that prolific again here. But Boston can rely on its defense, which has held the last five opponents to just 96 points per game. You’d have to go back to before Christmas to find the last time a team shot 50% or better against the Celtics. Before facing Charlotte, the Sixers hadn’t let an opponent hit 50% or better since December 13th! The Under is 7-1 in Philly’s last eight home games. They only scored 98 points on Wednesday, despite getting 31 from Joel Embiid. Getting back to what I was saying earlier about Boston not being able to match its prolific shooting from the last game. They are 33-15-1 Under following a straight-up win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-12-22 | Mavs v. Knicks UNDER 206 | Top | 85-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The Under has now hit in six of Dallas’ last seven games. The lone exception came when they hung 130 points on a lousy Houston team. The last six games have all been wins for the Mavericks and in five of them, they have held their opponent below 100 points. The Under has hit in seven of New York’s last nine games. One of the two exceptions came in a miracle comeback over Boston. In all seven Unders, the Knicks were able to hold their opponents below 100 points. So we’ve got two teams that are consistently doing something you don’t see all that often in the modern NBA - hold the opposition to double digits. Furthermore, you’ve got the Knicks often struggling to score 100 themselves. Four times in the last eight games, they have scored 96 points or less. These recent defensive efforts - from both teams - are not new. Both rank in the top five in scoring defense for the season. So take the UNDER here. |
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01-11-22 | Penguins v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The Penguins have played well on the road and are one loss away from a very lengthy win streak. They have very solid defense and a terrific starting goaltender in Jarry, but just lost their hottest scorer since the break to covid. The Ducks struggle to score on the top tier teams, but are very good at home. The last meeting of these two teams ended 1-0, and they have a history of other low totals. While low-scoring games haven't been common in the new year, here is a situation where it just might happen. Take the Penguins and Ducks to go under. |
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01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Toronto’s long stretch of Overs (had hit 10 in a row) finally came to an end on Sunday. Their game vs. New Orleans ended up 105-101, coming nowhere close to the 221-point total. The Raptors were a bit lucky to win that one as they trailed by three with three minutes to go in what was a back and forth game. But at the end of the day, the Raptors did win. The Over streak may have ended, but of greater significance to them was that it was their seventh straight win. This streak has catapulted them to seventh in the East. It will be a tough game here vs. Phoenix, who is off a shocking 23-point loss to a Miami team that was without several players. The Suns don’t lose often - just six times in the last 35 games - so the Raptors are in for a tough one on Tuesday. Look for the Suns to tighten the screws defensively after allowing 123 points in their last game. That matched their most allowed in any game since October. Over the full season, teams only score 105 PPG on Phoenix. I expect to see some more Unders out of Toronto games in the near future, this one included. Of the ten straight that went Over, only one game had a higher O/U line than this one does. Play UNDER |
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01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Though Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the league, a matchup with Washington should lead to more points than usual. The Wizards don’t defend particularly well. In the last game that they played, the Wizards held the Magic to 100 points and 39.6% shooting. But that is atypical. The previous four games saw the Wiz allow 120, 121, 114 and 130 points. The Thunder are long overdue to hot night shooting as it’s been seven straight games with a field goal percentage no higher than 43.2. One player to watch from the Thunder is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has only made 5 of his last 24 three-point attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting a career-low from three this season, but I’m banking on him having a bit of a breakout performance tonight. The problem for Oklahoma City in this game is that it is highly unlikely they will hold Washington to a similar shooting percentage as they did Denver on Sunday. They kept the Nuggets under 100 points as a result of 41.6% shooting, but remember the game before that Minnesota shot 55% against OKC. The Wizards are also FINALLY getting back Rui Hachimura, who should help improve the team’s woeful shooting from the last game where they made only 40%. The bottom line is both these teams are going to shoot better than they did in their last games. So take the OVER. |
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01-10-22 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 234.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Bucks and Hornets just played on Saturday and surprisingly it was Charlotte coming out ahead 114-106 as a one-point home favorite. Milwaukee was a bit short-handed for that one. Two of the three players that were out because of COVID-19 could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if they do or not, I like this rematch to be a lot higher scoring than Saturday. The Bucks got 43 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo on Saturday, but that wasn’t enough as the rest of the team scored just 63 and was 24 of 70 from the field. That’s just 34%, a truly horrible number and something you should expect they’ll improve upon for tonight. Milwaukee puts up 112.1 points per contest. Expect them to best that season average here as Charlotte has the worst scoring defense in the East at 116.3 points allowed per game. But the Hornets can score with the best of them. They average 115.5 points per contest, making them one of two teams to average more than the Bucks. It’s a little surprising to see the Hornets are “just” 20-13 Over on the year. Then again, this is going to be the 14th time that one of their games has a total that’s higher than 230. The last game, with Milwaukee shooting so poorly, saw only 220 points scored. But the first time the teams met this year, there were a combined 252 points scored. Look for something along those lines in the rubber match and take the OVER. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This “win or done” matchup features two very good quarterbacks and a pair of often unimpressive offenses. The Raiders have been tough to score on lately. Their pass defense has been surprisingly good in their last three games, but they haven’t faced a strong pass-first offense since the Chiefs, who badly mauled them. The Chargers, as good as their offense has been, give up a ton of points, and often to unlikely teams (41 points to Houston). They also struggled against the Chiefs. Both these teams defend poorly in the red zone. Herbert is the wonder boy these days but he is still relatively inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a the Raiders’ loud and hostile stadium in playoff-like conditions. Carr is very much the veteran and at home. How is this one going to play out? I think Carr and the Raiders will put up points against a weak and regressing Chargers defense. I also think that the Raiders will not be able to handle the ‘Herbert and Ekeler’ duo as easily as their last three opponents. Tough call on the winner, but look for plenty of points. Take the Chargers and Raiders to go over the total. |
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01-09-22 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
The Colts really need this win, and will be all in. The Jaguars? Who knows? They've played the Colts tough, with an embarrassingly ( for the Colts) long streak of home victories, and with a relatively close game earlier in the season. There is also their ranking and the #1 draft pick situation to consider. I am sure that the Colts will win this game, but by how much is the question. The Colts don't need to grind the Jaguars into the ground, so playing full out for the full 60 minutes may not be necessary. The Jaguars don't put up a ton of points, and the Colts' offensive numbers have regressed somewhat. Where the Colts have improved is that they are tougher to score against. They are a run-first offense, and it would make no sense to change the game plan for the sake of running up the score. Of all the options in this game, I am most comfortable with a lower total. I am wagering the Colts lead comfortably, then shut the Jaguars down. Take the UNDER today. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The Chiefs meet the Broncos in a very meaningful game for K.C., but not really for Denver. After limiting opposing teams' offense in the extreme, the Chiefs have given up two high totals in three games, and seen their defensive stats plummet. As much as the Chiefs need a win, this is also their last chance to right the ship on defense before the post season. The good news is that they face Drew Lock, rather than Burrow or Herbert. While this is not a really meaningful game for the Broncos other than Lock, it is a home game, so look for some effort. The Denver defense stumbled last week but has held most teams to under 20 points, or in the case of the Chiefs last time out, 22 points. Their offense has stumbled for more than a week, averaging only 12 points for the last 3 games. Both teams appear to be over the worst of covid, touch wood, but the Chiefs are missing their best RB, and the Broncos, their QB and other significant players. Look for the Chiefs to focus on defense in this game. Look for a return to the tight defense they showed for much of the year, with the Broncos struggling to put points on the board. If the Broncos do play all out, they have the potential to slow the Chiefs' potentially explosive offense. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
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01-08-22 | Wichita State v. Houston OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
more analysis to come |
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01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The Spurs and 76ers are going in opposite directions right now. The former had lost four in a row before picking up a low-scoring, 99-97 win over Boston. The latter has now won five in a row after winning 116-106 in Orlando 48 hours ago. I anticipate tonight’s clash being relatively low-scoring and am hopping on the Under. Philadelphia’s win streak has coincided with an uptick in scoring. They’ve averaged 118 points in the five wins. But four of the wins have come on the road. At home, this team is only 7-8 straight up and 11-4 to the Under. San Antonio is 13-6 Under in road games this season. This will be their fifth straight road game. Even though they did win the last one, we saw them struggle to score with just 99 points. That was with four starters putting up double figures. Going back to December 27th, the only team that the Spurs have scored more than 105 against was the Pistons. The 76ers have limited the last five opponents to 105.2 PPG on 42.8% shooting. Go with the UNDER in this one. |
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01-07-22 | Flames v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
These are the two best defenses in the NHL, with, not surprisingly, two of the premier goaltenders. Calgary has had trouble scoring on this road trip, but the Canes haven't. Calgary is on a back to back, and off a loss. The total is high, reflecting the number of high scoring games since the break. I like the under today. It should be something of a goaltenders duel, with Marky and Andersen, mano a mano, showing their stuff. |
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01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Boston has seen the Under hit in six of its previous eight games. Last night’s game, a 99-97 loss to San Antonio, obviously stayed Under the total. The Celtics attempted only nine free throws in that loss and missed 19 of 28 threes. Tonight, the Celtics are in New York to face a Knicks team that is on a 5-1 Under run. The Knicks also struggled from long-range in their last game, missing 22 of 28 threes. But they still won, beating Indiana 104-94. There were a lot of free throws attempted in that game (60) and I don’t see that number repeating itself for this game. Case in point, there were 47 and 50 combined free throws attempted the first two times these teams met this year. Both games did go Over, but one was a 2OT game. Boston is shooting only 42.8% its last five games, so they are in a slump. Their last three road games all stayed Under. New York has averaged only 95.8 points over its past five games. But they’ve also only given up an average of 96.4 points. I’d say this has all the makings of a low-scoring game, so take the UNDER. |
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01-05-22 | Blues v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Although Jarry has been terrific in the net for the Penguins for most of the season, he wasn't at his best before the break and has now been off for 2 weeks+. Binnington allowed 4 goals in his first game back. Low scoring affairs have been few and far between in the NHL since the overlong play stoppage. Both these teams can put the puck in the net and proved it in their last games; the Blues scoring 6 and the Penguins 8. The Blues are as healthy as they have been in ages, and have a mean PP going. The Penguins still have the odd injury but that has not fazed them this season. Whether Jarry is in the net or not, I am still wagering on the over. Too much firepower here for returning goalies. |
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01-05-22 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 210.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia scored 133 points its last time out. I don’t see them doing that again here. The 76ers shot 52% Monday against Houston, who were without a true center and thus had no answers for Joel Embiid, who went for 31 points and had his third career triple double. Embiid has averaged 36.3 points in his last seven road games. Impressive, but not a number he’ll be able to sustain. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Only the Pistons and Thunder have scored less. The Magic failed to hit 100 in their last game, losing 102-98 to Chicago. That was the eighth time since Thanksgiving that they were held under triple digits. It’s happened 17 times this season and they’ve lost every time. A likely offensive decline from Embiid and Phily, plus the fact Orlando just isn’t very good, has me on the Under in this matchup. The last time these teams met, they combined to score 197 points. The 76ers won 101-96. The Under is 22-14 in all Sixers’ games this season. That includes 16-8 when having exactly one day of rest in between games as they do here. |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 146.5 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day. Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER |
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01-03-22 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 213 | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
These are two teams trying to cement their status in the Western Conference top six. Denver is already there, with an 18-16 overall record. The Nuggets have won three straight to move into fifth position. A couple spots lower is Dallas, who is 18-18 and in eighth place. But the Mavericks have won two straight themselves. I’m liking the Over here. Denver scored 124 points in its last game, despite being undermanned. Road games have been higher scoring than home games this year for the Nuggets. They average 107.4 points away from home, but also give up an average of 108.8. The Over is 7-3 in the Nuggets’ last 10 games following a straight up win. Dallas is getting players back, most notably Luka Doncic. It was a really low-scoring game last night with Oklahoma City, but the Mavericks still won 95-86. I want to point out that last night’s opponent is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. The Mavs will certainly give up more points tonight as I can’t see them holding four straight opponents below 100 points. But also look for the Mavs to score more points tonight than they did last night. No one on the team scored more than 15 against the Thunder. They got only seven free throw attempts. Now at home, you got to figure they’ll get a lot more than that in tonight’s game. This is a low total, so play the Over. |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Both the Browns and the Steelers are teetering on the edge of a playoff-less season. Who ever loses on Monday is finished. The Browns are at their healthiest in some time. They have one of the best running backs in the business. The Steelers rank dead last in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt. Browns’ quarterback is playing wounded and it shows in his passing stats. Look for the Browns to deliver a steady diet of Nick Chubb and slow this game down. The Pittsburgh defense excels in sacks, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense, which with a rush-first opponent like the Browns, plays to a low total. There is a fair bit of hype about this being Roethlisberger’s swansong, but lets face it; he is retiring for a reason. While he is still accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over, his yards per game and yards/attempt have dropped. He is a bit of a sitting duck back there, and has been sacked with regularity this season. The flip side of Big Ben’s retirement is that there are a whole lot of Browns players who would like to make his last home game a memorable one, with a little payback. Pittsburgh has been running the ball more but they are up against a very stiff Browns run offense. The Browns are very solid against the pass as well, so don’t look for the Steelers, lower than average in points scored per game, to pile up the points. I like the total in this game. Look for a result similar to the Titans/Steelers. Take the under. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Baylor/Iowa State These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game. The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame UNDER 46 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame Oklahoma State went 11-2. The Cowboys would ultimately go on to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Title game. Normally OKS is known for its high-octane offense, but they held opponents to just 17 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. The Cowboys were ranked second in the country on allowed third down conversions, conceding just 25 percent of such instances. They also led the nation in sacks with 55. The offense took a step back this sesaon though, entering averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 50th. QB Spencer Sanders had a pedestrian season, throwing for 2,468 yards, but with a 16:14 TD:INT ratio. Brian Kelly has already left Notre Dame and several key players have opted out. Marcus Freeman is the new coach. Kyren Williams has left for the NFL. He was the team's leading rusher and had the second most TD's only behidn QB Jack Coan. The Irish rank ninth overall on the defensive end, conceding 18.3 PPG. Many new faces, but these defenses are elite. Each ranks in the Top 10. Expect them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama UNDER 57.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
No one but the BearCats think they have a chance in this game, but they are unbeaten, and playing against a Crimson Tide team that is not without stumbles this year. What does Cincinnati need to do to stay close to Alabama? Alabama is a pass- first offense generating over 400 yards avg. in their last three games, and they blew out Georgia’s fine pass defense last game. The Bearcats’ run defense has improved over the last three games and they are exceptional in red zone defense, so the Tide’s running game is not such a threat. Slowing the passing game is possible: the Bearcats’ sack totals over the last three games have risen dramatically, and they have limited opposing Qbs in yards and yard per attempt.. As far as the Crimson Tide’s defense goes, two things stand out; nobody has much success running on them, and they are tough on opposing Qbs. Cincinnati’s pass offense does not compare. They have had success running the ball in their last three games, but that likely will not wash against Alabama. Of all options in this game I like the total. The Alabama/Georgia game will be a roadmap for Cincinnati of where not to go. I don’t see the Bearcats scoring a ton of points, but I do see them holding Alabama to respectable levels. Look for the Bearcats to key on Bryce Young, and take away some of those huge plays. Take the total to go Under. |
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12-29-21 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 143 | Top | 84-85 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Memphis/Tulane Memphis is 6-4, but it's 0-2 on the road. Tulane is 3-6 overall, including 2-2 at home. When these teams played last year, Memphis pulled away for a 61-46 win and the total stayed well "under" the posted number of 130. I expect a similar final combined score this season as well. The Green Wave average 72.1 PPG, while Memphis averages 77.7. However, each is underrated on the defensive end of the floor as well. Each also comes in rested after having a few games postponed due to COVID. Look for this conference matchup to be a competitive one, but also a lower-scoring defensive affair. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane. |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ben is no longer the formidable opponent he once was, but he is still the only show in town as far as the Steelers’ offense goes. The pass game is definitely middle of the pack, but the Steelers just don’t run. Period. They are 31st in the NFL in rush yards, and 30th in rush 1st downs. They don’t defend the run well either; their rush defense is 31st on average, and abysmal in their last two games. What the Steelers do well on defense is defend against the pass (12th rated and improving) and get to opposing Qbs (2nd and improving). How does this stack up against the Chiefs? The Chiefs can run, and will if pressed, but it is usually a second choice. The Steelers’ offense may shift the Chiefs to more of a run-first style of offense, so likely no 413 yards passing this week and maybe a lot less points scored. Other than last week, the Chiefs have held opposing teams to less than 9 points a game over a 5 game stretch. They are a “bend but don’t break” defense. Roethlisberger may have some success against them but I don’t see him stacking up the points. Considering the matchup and the Chiefs’ ability to keep the score down, I think the game’s total is high. Take the Steelers and Chiefs to go under the total. |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
The Browns have had a tough season to date but are starting to get healthier. One thing that hasn't suffered lately is their defense, giving up less than 16 points on average over their last four games. The Browns are in desperation mode, and while you can't expect Rodgers and Co. to take it easy today, they know where they are headed already. The Browns have one of the very best running backs in the league and the Packers can be run against. The best way to control Rodgers is to keep him off the field. The Browns are tough against opposing QBs, both in yards allowed and in pressuring QBs. The Packers have not protected Rodgers particularily well lately. Mayfield may be back today but hasn't practised, and the Browns are very poor at scoring on the road. Look for this game to produce less points that expected. Take the total to go under.. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
Georgia State/Ball State While both teams looked decent defensively at times down the stretch of the regular season, that side of the ball was each their weak points. Georgia State is 7-5. It's coming off a 37-10 win over Troy. QB Darren Grainger is a dual-threat that finished with 1,512 yards passing, 16 TD's and four INT's, while also rushing for 524 yards (4.3 YPC), and two rushing TD's. Defensively though they allow 27.7 PPG. Drew Pitt and the Cardinals will look to take advantage. Pitt finished with 2,248 yards passing, 17 TD's and finve IT's this year (also had 150 rushing yards.) However, like their opponent today, the Cardinals weakness this season was on the defensive side of the ball where they allowed 26.5 PPG on average (the Bulls were 9 of 18 on third down in their last game and they converted their only fourth down attempt as well.) Expect these two well-rested sides to push the pace from the start. This one flies over the number. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on over. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The Titans are up against a very hot 49ers team with first place in the AFC south now in jeopardy. They have not been scoring enough points to win with any regularity. Off a disappointing loss, and with far too many turnovers lately, is there any likelihood that the Titans can bounce back? The Titans are still a rush-first offense and are running for yards with success, but they are up against a solid 49ers rush defense. Their pass offense is very weak, down 80 yards per game over their last 3 starts when compared to their season average. It is uncertain if one or both of WRs Brown or Jones will be starting this week. Tannehill has been sacked 37 times this year and will likely spend more time on his back as the 49ers are 10th in the league and improving in sacks. The 49ers have seen growth in their rush offense lately but are up against a very tough Titans rush defense that has been lights out in their last three starts. Garoppolo has silenced a few of his critics with some decent numbers lately. He is accurate and has cut down on hi turnovers. The 49ers have protected him well this season. Of note, the 49ers are best in the league in red zone scoring %. That said, the Titans’ pass defense has been much improved lately, allowing fewer yards and Tds against. Their sack totals have also picked up. Given their recent success, the 49ers have not faced a really tough defense lately. The Titans are hard to score against, but are only averaging 15 points per game over the last 4 games, and I don’t expect a significant improvement this week. Take the 49ers and Titans to go UNDER THE TOTAL ON THURSDAY |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Vikings/Bears The Bears have scored 52 points in their last two games, a huge improvement over their lowly 17 point scored average. The Bears have a solid run game, but the improvement has come in the passing game, with good increases in passing yards and points in the last three games. Unfortunately the Bears defense, already 28th rated, is much worse over their last three games. The Vikings haven’t had a low scoring game since week 4. They are 10th and climbing in points scored, with an average of 30 points in their last three games. Like the Bears, their points allowed, never low, has climbed to 29 over the last three games. On the field, the Vikings defense is 26th and 27th rated against the pass and run respectively, but they are top in the league at applying QB pressure. Luckily for the Bears, Field has handled the blitz well and has the advantage of scrambling impressively. The Bears defense struggle against the run but generally handle the pass well. The Vikings put up monster numbers with the run offense last week and have shown improvement well above average with their run game lately. Against Cousins, the Bears face a well protected, dynamic, and accurate QB, with high TD totals and low interception and sack numbers. Cousins could very well pick the Bears offense apart, just as Rogers did last week. Lets see, both teams are scoring more on offense and allowing more on defense. It doesn’t take rocket science to see the potential for a high scoring affair. This game is a definite total over selection |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Charlotte UNDER 131.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Maryland Eastern Shore/Charlotte Both teams enter at 5-5. The Hawks enter off a 79-43 win over St. Mary's AD. Nathaniel Pollard had 16 points and 8 boards. I was impressed by their defensive play and I believe that confidence/momentum is carried over here. In fact, Maryland Eastern Shore enters having won three straight. Charlotte will be out to rebound from an 82-79 loss to Wake Forest. Jahmir Young exploded for 27 points, 9 boards and 4 assists for the 49ers. Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in two straight, but I expect this competitive contest to be a tighter defensive one in the end. 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the under. |
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12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | Top | 78-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Dartmouth/Stanford Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring "overs" of late, but I think this non-conference matchup will produce a lower-scoring game finally. Dartmouth is out to snap a four-game slide. The Big Green average 70.9 PPG, while allowing 70.8. Clearly the margin of error is razor slim for Dartmouth most nights. The Big Green's defense catchs somewhat of a break today facing Stanford's methodical attack that produces 69.9 PPG on average. The Cardinal though will need to get things figured out on the defensive end before conference play gets underway if they have any hopes of competing this season, as they allow 70 PPG on average so far. Stanford will have to be cautious to not get caught looking ahead here, despite this being an important final tune-up. I say the last thing that the home side can do is to turn this into a "track meet." I expect a defensive affair. 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Dartmouth/Stanford. |
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12-12-21 | Hurricanes v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
The Canucks have been on a roll but face a stiff opponent in the Hurricanes, even on a back to back. Raanta is in the net, and has been solid when he plays. Demko has kept the Canucks in many games and is much better than his save % would suggest. The Canes have knocked off the Oilers and the Flames on this road trip, so i don't think they will let this game get away.. The Canucks still aren't scoring, and the under has bee a trend for both teams. Stick with that trend and take the under tonight. |
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12-11-21 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 218.5 | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Kings/Cavs I base my picks on many, many different things. Common sense is some times the best approach I've found in handicapping a contest, and that's what I'm going to use here. The Kings are off a heart-breaking 124-123 road loss at Charlotte just last night. I think they'll struggle to find energy this evening in the second game of the B2B. Kings have also seen the total go under in eight of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 120 or more points in. Cleveland is off a 123-106 road win at Minnesota just last night. The Cavaliers are the hottest team in the league right now, but they still only average 105.6 PPG, getting the job done on the defensive end. With both teams having played just last night, look for a slower overall pace. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under. |
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12-10-21 | Red Wings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
After a 5 game win streak, the Red Wings have lost two in a row. Detroit is very streaky, facing the high flying Avs on a back to back and on the road, so I wouldn't look for a Wings win tonight. Greiss is likely starting against Kuemper. Neither has been particularly effective this year, with Greiss the real underachiever here. Detroit's recent games have all gone over, as have Colorado's. With the AVs' offense performing as well as it has against a tired Red Wings team, I would stick with the trend and take this game to go over the total. Shop around as there is some variability in this line. |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Dallas/Memphis Dallas is off a 102-99 loss at home to Brooklyn just last night. The Mavs have now seen the total go under in three straight. Dallas though has seen the total fly over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which was held to 99 or fewer points in. The Mavericks are injured and playing the second game of the back to back, but I say it's their defense which struggles tonight, not the offense this time. The Grizz will look to take advantage and push the pace from start to finish. Memphis is playing its best basketball of the season, as it's gone 5-0 SU/ATS in its last five. With the Lakers coming to town tomorrow, the Grizz will have to be careful here to not get caught looking ahead. While each side has played to several lower-scoring games of late, the value on this total has now finally swung the other way in my opinion. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the over. |
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12-08-21 | Avalanche v. Rangers OVER 6 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
The Rangers are 4th in the league in defense but a good part of that has been Shesterkin's stellar play. He is out, which will change the Rangers' goals against figures. The AVs, with their potent offense now firing on all cylinders, score a ton, but also allow plenty. Kuemper has been dicy, and with him out, the alternative is likely Johansson. He has been wildly inconsistent when he has played. To make matters worse the AVs could be missing a couple of their D men. Rangers are on a back to back, but everyone, including Ottawa, has been scoring against the AVs. The total is a bit high, but the over is still a very strong bet. |
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12-06-21 | Avalanche v. Flyers OVER 6 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Tonight will be and opportunity for the Flyers to score some goals. With Kuemper injured, Johansson will start again for Colorado and he has not been sharp. Flyers goalie Jones is on a back to back and has been very average. The AVs were embarrassed by the Senators, and have a day's rest. Expect them to come out firing on all cylinders and do what they do best; put the puck in the net. This game features two of the poorer defenses in the NHL, sand while the total is high, there is every likelyhood that this one will still finish over. |
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12-01-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are healthier, with Stone and Pacioretty returning, and very well rested. The Ducks are on the wrong end of a back to back, with Stolarz likely in net. He has been sharp when he has played, but has only faced the NHL's bottom feeders, so facing the Knights might be an eye-opener. His opponent Lehner is still not excelling, giving up a couple of goals a game. Anaheim has better than expected offense this year, and the Knights offense has finally been rounding into form. Neither defense is better than average. The Total tonight is set at 5.5. I can see this one going over easily |
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11-29-21 | Magic v. 76ers OVER 208.5 | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Magic/76ers As with most of my O/U picks, this one is a great situational release. I don't think Philadelphia will "look past" the Magic today, especially after tow straight losses. That includes a 121-120 OT loss here at home to the Wolves in their latest outing. This is also the final home game before a tough five-game Eastern road swing for Philly. The Magic are in a rebuilding year. They're off a 105-92 loss at Cleveland. They've seen the total dip "under" in five straight games. Orlando though has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. With the home side pushing the pace like I expect from start to finish, everything does indeed point to the higher number as the correct call in this one. 10* total of the week on the over. |
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11-28-21 | Pistons v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Pistons/Lakers A great 'spot' wager on the lower number here. Detroit is out for revenge here after losing 121-116 to the Lakers at home in OT last week. The Pistons come here off a 107-97 loss here to the Clippers on Friday. I have a hard time seeing the undermanned visiting side reaching the century makr here today either. Note that Detroit averages only 98.6 PPG. The hungry Lakers are off a terrible 141-137 triple OT loss here to the Kings. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the league the last three years, but they've taken a step back in that departemnt this season. But after the exhausting extra time loss last time out, we can expect the hungry home side to double down on the defensive end this evening as it looks to take advantage of this matchup. This number his high. 10* TOTAL OF MONTH on the under. |
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11-28-21 | Lightning v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 101 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
The last time these two teams played it ended up a high scoring overtime win for the Lighning, but that was a back to back with second string goalies. The Lightning have been impressive of late but they have been feeding on the small fry with a pair of shutouts. The Wild have a solid home record, and very good offense; The can score a ton, but they do give up a lot of goals. Talbot has not been as sharp as he was early. Minnesota is a" win big, lose big" team and the over is just average. Take this one to go over. |
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11-24-21 | Wild v. Devils OVER 6 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
After a very hot start, the Wild netminder Talbot has struggled in net, and while the Wild have plenty of offense (4th) they have been scored upon more than average of late. The Devils are also giving up a lot of goals, 18 in their last 4 games to be exact, and are only middling in defense at the best of times. Both teams are struggling right now. I like the Wild's chances tonight but i like the total's possibilities better. Take the total in this game to go over |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 47.5 | 37-41 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
An injury-ridden Steelers team limps into LA to face the relatively healthy but struggling Chargers team in a key matchup for both teams. And yes, Ben will be in the stadium. Much of the Steelers’ defense will not start, including TJ Watt. Justin Herbert will likely be breathing a sigh of relief. Herbert, after a very strong start, has struggled badly in his last four games, with a QB rating of under 75 in three of them. Last week he threw for only 195 yards, and the Chargers ARE a pass driven offense. That may change this week as Pittsburgh’s defense is 9th against the pass, but 24th against the run. Look for more from Ekeler, who is more than capable, in Week 11. With Big Ben back, memories of the Steelers’ pathetic efforts in week 10 can slide into the distance. Not that he has been overwhelming, but the Steelers’ offense certainly appeared rudderless last week. Roethlisberger has improved as the season progressed. The Steelers will likely look to their stellar RB Najee Harris and their running game this weekend. Last week aside, when they didn’t defend well against either,, the Chargers defend well against the pass but are 31st in YPC and dead last in rushing yards allowed. The Steelers are a good road team, but the number of injuries is a real concern. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from embarrassing week ten efforts. This is a must win for Herbert and the Chargers. There is a good chance that much of this game will be on the ground, slowing the pace, and lowering the total. Take the total to go under on Sunday night. |
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11-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Vegas and Columbus have both been scoring and allowing a ton of goals lately. This game will match the 20th vs the 24th ranked defenses. 24 goals were scored for and against for Vegas and 25 for the Jackets in the last three games respectively. Neither goaltender has exactly stood on their head this season. That said, the total is an average 5.5 today. Take the total to continue the trend and go over tonight. |
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11-19-21 | Jets v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
With the Jets off a tough loss in a shootout last night, one would think that this would be an opportunity for the beleaguered Canucks to step up and show something. They face Comrie in the net. Comrie is the third string netminder for the Jets, but he has been playing surprisingly well in his few appearances. The Jets will be tired, but have superior scoring and a very solid defense this year. The Canucks can’t score, and can’t defend, ranked 27th in both categories. Their PK is shockingly bad and their PP not much better. Can the Canucks take advantage of the Jets on a back to back? I am not convinced. There are a couple of possible scenarios. Either the Canucks show some bounce and pot a few for a change, or completely fall to pieces. Both involve goals scored. Take the total to go over. |
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11-18-21 | Red Wings v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
These two teams played a week or so back, resulting in a Red Wings victory and an over total. Vegas has picked it up since then, scoring more often. Neither goaltender has been startling, and the defenses rank 21st and 27th in goals allowed. Detroit has allowed 10 goals in their last 2 games, and Vegas 8 goals. The total is set at 5.5 today which is surprising as all 6 of the Knights last games' have surpassed that. I expect this game to go over the total again. |
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11-18-21 | Wizards v. Heat OVER 209.5 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Washington/Miami It's almost impossible to find a game with a total in the 230's anymore. That's a stark contrast from last season's scoring pace. Note that the Opening Night Nets game had a posted total of 244.5! Two of the best in the East collide in Miami tonight and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks finally. Washington has so far allowed just 103.5 PPG, but I expect this up-tempo Heat offense to push the pace from the opening tip. The Wizards average 108.4 PPG, which ranks 12th, while the Hea average 110.1, which ranks sixth. Miami has also been good defensively, allowing 103 PPG this season. But I think this total is now a little too low. The books have overadjusted, as note that the Heat have seen the total fly "over" in ten of their last 14 as a home favorite in the -5.5 to -7.5 points range. Everything points to a high-scoring shootout. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the over Wizards/Heat. |
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11-16-21 | 76ers v. Jazz UNDER 218.5 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
76ers/Jazz Philadelphia is still missing its best player in Joel Embiid due to injury, but it still can't be too happy with its current four-game slide. Obviously. While their last three games have flown "over" the number, I expect a more methodically-paced affair here in Utah. The Jazz are off a 111-105 loss here three nights ago. They're rested and I expect a "return to the norm" on the defensive end this evening. Philly has seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 13 as well after three or more straight losses in a row. This number is high. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER. |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The Sabres, off a tough loss against the Leafs, travel to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins. The Penguins have Crosby back, and while that will undoubredly help the offense and the struggling PP, it won't solve defensive issues. This game pits the Sabres' 21st rated defense vs the Penguins' 26th rated defense. Niether Jarry nor Tokarski had been bombproof this season. The Sabres' offense has been unexpectedly good, and we can expect un uptick in the Penguins' scoring numbers. The total is slightly inflated, but still the way to go. Take the over today. |
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11-13-21 | Maple Leafs v. Sabres OVER 6 | 5-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Leafs/Sabres Two untested third string goal tenders are in the net by necessity for the Leafs and Sabres and both teams are in back to back situations tonight. At this point the Sabres score and allow more goals, but there are signs of the Leafs’ offense opening up. The Leafs are a hot 7-1 in their last 8 games, while the Sabres are almost the reverse. This is the first NHL experience for both goalies, and with two tired defenses, the score could mount up. Take the total, which is slightly inflated to still go over. |
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11-12-21 | Oilers v. Sabres OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
The Oilers are on a back to back on the road, with Skinner (.921) facing the Sabres' goalie Tokarski (.902 SV%). The Sabres have fallen back to earth after their hot start, and have now lost 6 straight. More to the point, they have allowed nearly 5 goals a game over their last 4 starts, while scoring 11. One thing you can count on from the Oilers is offense. They are first in the league in goals scored, facing a 22nd rated Sabres defense. This will be Skinner's second start this season, so he is a bit of a wild card, and the Oilers are hardly defensive paragons, having allowed 11 goals in their last three games. The Total is slightly inflated, but the over is still the way to go tonight. |
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11-09-21 | Sharks v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
The Sharks will be very shorthanded due to Covid protocols on the road against the Flames. They've started well, but this game will be tough, especially with Adin Hill in net (.886 SV%), and the long list of players out. Calgary is healthy, rested, and playing a very balanced and disciplined game right now. The Flames have the 5th rated offense in the NHL at the moment, with scoring from a variety of sources. The Sharks are scoring just under 3 goals a game, and allowing 2.6. With Hill in net, it is likely that Calgary will continue to pot a few. Markstrom hasn't been quite as lights out in 2 of his last 3, and the Flames have allowed 2 of 3 to go into overtime, adding to the total. This will be a very overworked team on Tuesday night. Take the total to go over. |
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11-09-21 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 220 | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Bucks/76ers Yes, Joel Embiid is out for the 76ers, but I'm still expecting a faster-paced shootout between these two Eastern Conference heavyweights. Philaldelphia is out to rebound off last night's 103-96 loss here at home to the Knicks (it's seen the total go 'over' in ten of its last 13 after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to fewer than 99 points in though.) Milwaukee is just 4-6. It's playing terribly. It's lost 113-98 to New York, then 101-94 at Washington. With the White House visit out of the way though, I think the Bucks' offense returns to form here (amazingly the Bucks have seen the total go 'under' in eight of their ten games this season.) It's next man up in Philadelphia. This number is low, the play is the over. |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss OVER 66.5 | 14-27 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Ole Miss Two teams that are already bowl eligible will look to close out the regular season strong and improve their berth in the process. Liberty is 7-2 and off a 62-17 crushing of UMass. QB Malik Willis had 307 passing yards and four TD's. The Rebels moved to 6-2, but they then fell flat in last week's 31-20 road loss against No. 18 Auburn. QB Matt Corral was a bright spot with 289 yards passing. I don't expect a heavy emphasis put on the defensive side by either club. Look for this to fly over in the latter stages. The play is the over. |
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11-05-21 | Predators v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Predators/Canucks The Predators, on the road and with their third game in 4 nights face the struggling Canucks. While the new additions to the Vancouver lineup have largely been successful, the top scoring line of the Canucks has been slow to start. The Canucks are scoring only 2.4 goals per game, and with a struggling power play. The Predators at 5-5 are middle of the pack in many regards, with goals for at 2.7 and goals allowed at 2.9. They are getting solid goaltending from Saros, who has been very sharp, particularly against Calgary 2 games back. The Canucks have also had solid goaltending. But for Thatcher Demko, the Canucks would really be in the dumpster. Allowing 2.6 goals a game, the defense is an improvement over last year but is still a work in progress. The Predators are missing Forsberg which is a blow. The Canucks are missing a pair of fourthliners, who are important in the PK. With the low-scoring Canucks and two topnotch goalies, I’m looking at the total in the ‘Nucks/Preds and thinking under. |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62) As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief. I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest. The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides. I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over. |
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11-01-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Take the high octane Oilers, extraordinary on the PP so far, and with more than the usual 1-2 punch for offense this year. Add the Kraken on the road, on the butt end of a back to back and with a back up goalie, and what do you get? A recipe for a high total. And don't forget. While Edmonton has potted 29, the Kraken have 22 goals themselves this season. Take the total to go over. |
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10-31-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 224 | Top | 85-95 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers The Rockets are 1-4 and the Lakers are 3-3. Neither team is happy where it sits as far as its win/loss record is concerned. The Lakers are a massive favorite here, but they've been terribly inconsistent from game-to-game. Off a 113-101 win and cover at home here over the Cavaliers, LeBron James and company will be cautious to not lose focus or to take the foot off the gas. The schedule is different for both clubs, as they'll have a night off before playing here again on Tuesday night. Houston's off a poor 122-91 home loss to Utah. Note though that it's seen the total go over in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or less points in. I don't expect a huge emphasis by either team on the defensive end. Look for this one to produce and exciting, high-scoring outcome and take the over. |
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10-28-21 | Troy v. Coastal Carolina OVER 52 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 40 m | Show | |
Troy @ Coastal Carolina Troy is 4-3. It's a big underdog on the road here against 6-1 Coastal Carolina. The Trojans won't be just rolling over here though. Troy is off a confidence-building 31-28 road win over Texas State. QB Gunnar Watson was 22 of 29 passing for 182 yards and a TD in the victory. The Chanticleers though are coming off their first loss of the season in last week's 30-27 road loss at Appalachian State. Clearly, Coastal Carolina will be looking to take out its frustrations this week on this weak Trojans defense as it looks to make an immediate return to the winners circle. The Trojans have been decent defensively this year in conceding only 19.6 PPG, but they just allowed 28 to the Bobcats, so I believe they're going to be in trouble again here on the road. CC QB Grayson McCall owns the sixth-highest QBR in college football at 85.8 and he's completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 1,769 yards with 15 touchdowns to a single pick. I think these two offenses move the chains from start to finish. Look for this total to fly over before the final whistle sounds. The play is the over. |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.77) vs. Astros (Valdez, 1-0, 4.20) The Braves, the national league’s unexpected champs, start Charlie Morton against the powerhouse Astros. Morton has started three games in the postseason, and while he hasn’t been overpowering, he has kept the score down. He is well rested and a very experienced post-season starter, and if he is on his game, capable of pitching for length. His opponent is Framber Valdez, who will be remembered for his 8 inning 3 hit, 1 ER outing that broke the backs of the Red Sox. But let’s not forget the previous 2 post season starts that were not pretty, allowing 6 runs over 7+ innings. So, which Valdez shows up on Tuesday? If Valdez can get out of the second inning he also could go pitch late into the game. The Astros’ bullpen has much better than usual with an ERA of 2.63/L7, although it has been relied upon heavily. The Braves bullpen has not been as sharp, although their starters fared much better than the Astros starters to date. Both bullpens should be adequately rested. The Braves are a good road team, and solid vs lefties, but were very poor in interleague games this year. The Astros were dominant at home and vs. right-handers in the regular season. Looking at the batting stats for the postseason, there are a whole lot of Astros high in the list. The Braves are no slouches for offense and have some hot hitters right now. I like the total on Tuesday, in particular the early one. I can't see the offenses being completely shutdown early. Take the total to go over in the first five innings. |
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10-26-21 | Flames v. Devils OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Flames/Devils The Flames, off a big win last night, are on the road again against the Devils, in back to back games. They were 4-6 in back to backs hast season, and have backup goaltender Vladar in the net. Vladar has blayed one game this season, and has an .880 save %. The Flames have won 3 straight and are injury free at the moment. The Devils are rested but not injury free at the moment, missing a pair of goaltenders and a pair of forwards, including Jack Hughes. They are running out a third string goalie tonight. Wedgewood is 0-1 with an .852 save%. These are not high scoring teams although Calgary did notch 6 last night vs. the Rangers. The Devils’ defense has shown improvement this year, but without regular goaltending the total seems like the best bet. Shop around and take the total to go over. |
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10-23-21 | LSU v. Ole Miss OVER 76 | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
LSU @ Ole Miss LSU is 4-3. It's offense has played well and it's defense hasn't. QB Max Johnson has stepped up under center with 1863 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. That offense has been forced to play well for the Tigers to stay competitive though each week, as the defense is allowing 28.7 PPG. Ole Miss is on a misson to win the SEC and it'll look to take advntage of this suspect Tigers' offense. The Running Rebels average 43.7 PPG. QB Matt Corral has 1728 passing yards and 14 touchdowns while also leading the Rebels in rushing with 450 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. The one down fall for Ole Miss? Like its counterpart today, it's on the defensive side of the ball where the Rebels are conceding 30.2 PPG. Look for these offenses to pile on the points quickly. This number is low, the play is the over. |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Oilers vs Golden Knights: The red-hot Oilers face the subdued Golden Knights in Las Vegas on Friday. The Oilers are 3-0, on the backs of their dynamic duo, and scoring more than 4 goals a game so far. Goalie Mike Smith is out and the Oilers have been allowing a ton of shots on net. Their backup, Koskinen, has not played very much this season, and the Oilers have back to back games, so the goalie issue is up in flux. Vegas is 1-2, off a loss, and not performing as expected. Missing two key offense components, Pacioretty and Stone, to injuries already, they have not been scoring. They have not been defending either, allowing a 25th in the league average of 4 goals a game. Neither Golden Knights goalie has started well. There is little doubt that the Oilers will score, but unless they play a better brand of defense, there is little doubt they will be scored upon. I like the total in this situation. Take the Oilers and Knights to go over the total. |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Eovaldi, 2-0) vs Astros (Garcia, 0-1) The Red Sox face elimination and have Eovaldi, their only successful starter, on the mound. Eovaldi has already started three games in the postseason, winning two of them. He was not quite as dominant in the start vs. the Astros, and was then called upon to pitch a very unwise bullpen 2/3 of an inning and was shelled for 4 ER. How this will impact on his start on Friday remains to be seen, but he will be pitching on 3 days rest twice. Luis Garcia has started 2 games, lasted 3 2/3 innings and has an ERA well into the 20’s. He was also roughed up in his last regular season start. He has a history of inflated ERA in the first innings, but is a much better pitcher at home. The Astros are no doubt hoping for a turnaround similar to Valdez’s in the previous game, but it is less likely. Valdez’s stellar start gave the Astros pen a solid day of rest, while the Red Sox used five relievers. The Red Sox pen has a collective ERA of 6.25 in their last 7 games, and has been relied on for over 4 innings of relief per game. The Astros bullpen is better at 4.08 ERA/7 games. Both teams obviously have the ability to score runs in a hurry. The Red Sox, in the regular season, were not a terrific road team. Both teams hit right-handers very well. I am doubtful of Garcia’s success today and can’t see Eovaldi lasting, Take the Sox/Astros total today to go over. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
Broncos/Browns The Browns have a slew of injuries, including QB, a pair of running backs, and key pieces in the offensive line. When your leaders in passing, rushing and TDs are all out, the offense is in trouble. Not to mention a short week for Keenum to put things together. They are still 3 point favorites. Which doesn’t say much for the 3-3 Broncos, off three straight losses. Bridgewater will start for the Broncos, but he is limping as well. He was sacked five times, and was hit well in the double figures last game. While he threw for three touchdowns, he also had three interceptions. The highly touted Browns defense has stumbled badly two games in a row. Two stats to note; the Browns are 29th in the NFL in takeaways, and they are only averaging 2 sacks per game in their last two starts. The Broncos defense is rated at 9th which may be generous. They have been solid against the run. The Browns defense is reasonably intact, and may show up after two poor games. With an injury-weakened offensive line and a reserve quarterback, the Browns may not be putting up many points. Give Keenum at least the first half to find his feet. Take this game to go under the total in the first half. |
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10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Astros (Valdez) vs. Red Sox (Sale) Can we expect a return to normalcy in Game 5? If this game goes as others in the series have then expect another high scoring affair. Both pitchers are starting on five days’ rest and both have not thrown a lot of innings in the post season. Both are left-handers which should statistically be an advantage. Sale looked better in his second post season start, but was pulled after just 2+ innings. He has struggled vs. right-handers recently, which plays to the Astros’ strength. Valdez was roughed up in both his postseason starts, lasting just a total of 7 innings. The Astros’ bullpen has been, surprisingly, somewhat better than average. Most of the damage the Red Sox have done has been against starters. The Boston pen is struggling, with an ERA of 4.75 and has been used heavily, more than 5 innings a game on average. The total has been over in 12 0f 14 of these two teams’ games. Will today be any different? Possibly in the first five innings, but neither of these starters are destined to pitch long, and the offenses are just too potent for a low total. Take this game to go over. |
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10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 106 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.34) vs. Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1, 3.38) Down an unexpected 0-2, today is an absolute must win for the Dodgers. Buehler is back on the mound, with some extra day’s rest. He struggled somewhat in his first post-season start but was better against the Giants in his 2nd short outing. Buehler and Morton met in late August, with Buehler slightly the better pitcher. Morton finished the regular season strongly allowing 3 runs over 15+ innings in his last three starts. He has not been quite as sharp in the post-season, allowing 4 runs over 9 innings. He too is well rested. The Braves bullpen has been nothing short of exceptional in this series, which might have come as a surprise to many. The Dodgers pen has been as expected, although they have coughed up a couple of clutch Atlanta runs. I hate to say it, but the Dodgers have been unlucky in this series. Now back at home where they have been almost unbeatable down the stretch, they are a big favorite to win today. The totals are predictably low. I am looking for the Dodgers’ bats to wake up today, and I believe it will come at the expense of Morton and the Atlanta relievers. Take the total to go over in the first five innings. |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Astros (Urquidy) vs Red Sox (Rodriguez, 0-1) Will the bats continue to reign in the Astros’ and Red Sox’ game 3? It is Urquidy and Rodriguez on the mound on Monday. Urquidy hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and didn’t finish the regular season strongly. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher since shoulder trouble in July and August. He has pitched well in previous post seasons, and held the Red Sox to only 1 run over 6 innings in his only start against them. Rodriguez improved as the season progressed, finishing the season with an ERA of just over three in his last 7 games. His 2 appearances against the Rays were poor (2 ER over 1.2 innings) then better (2 ER over 5 innings). Houston knocked him around twice in quick succession early in the season. He pitches much better away from Fenway. The offenses are 1 + 2 in team batting in the post season and the three hottest hitters are all Red Sox. The bullpens have been average in this series; it is mainly the starters who have been knocked around. The Red Sox are very strong vs right-handed starters, the Astros less so vs. lefties. These are two very good offenses and two starters with question marks beside them. I like the total early. Take this game to go over in the first five innings. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers UNDER 43 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Seattle Seahawks/Pittsburgh Steelers For me, this one is simple. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both going to be trying to establish the run game today. The Seahawks especially since QB Russell Wilson went down with injury last week. Geno Smith has always been a "game manager," and that'll again be the case today as he's thrust into the spotlight in this difficult road venue. Pittsburgh rookie RB Najee Harris ran for a career-best 122 yards and a TD in last week's 27-19 win over the Broncos and I expect him to have another big day here against this weak Seattle defensvie front. The total has gone under in Pittsburgh's last eight games against the NFC and I expect that trend to continue here in the first half on Sunday night. The play is the under in the first half. |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA) The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter. The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue. The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested. Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest? Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers? Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings. This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under. |
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10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers UNDER 45.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
Vikings vs Panthers Off a pair of losses, the Panthers need a win here. The big bad news for the Panthers is that McCaffrey is not, as was expected, back for the Panthers. This impacts the running game, but it also limits QB Darnold. There is no easy out from the exceptional pressure he has faced this season. The Panthers’ offensive line has not been effective. Darnold had a very poor game in week 5, but it is hard to compete with your butt on the turf. He’s had 5 turnovers in the last two games and has been sacked 14 times this season. Without McCaffrey, the Panthers offense is really sputtering. A telling stat; Carolina is only converting 38% of third down situations. As much as the Panthers need a win, The Vikings need a road victory in week 6 for any chance of a successful season. The big good news for QB Cousins and the Vikings is that RB Dalvin Cook is returning. From a low point against the Browns and just 7 points scored, Cousins has been on something of a rebound. But will we still see the methodical and conservative approach to offense of previous weeks? Likely so.. Two very strong defenses will put their mark on this game. Both defenses have been very successful in limiting passing and rushing this season. The Vikings defense are third in the league in sacks and the Panthers just 1 back at 16. The Panthers excel at applying quick pressure on the passer. Both defenses are very good in limiting third down conversions. This match up does not look conducive to a high points total. Take the Vikings and Panthers to go under the total. |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Knebel 0-0, ) vs. Braves (Fried, 1-0, 0.00) Game 1 in the NL championship series matches Max Fried vs. all comers. Fried has shone this year, especially late in the season and in his magnificent start vs. the Brewers. If anyone can pitch for length vs. the Dodgers, it is he. Knebel is the named starter for the Dodgers, but it will likely be a bullpen game today. Knebel is not unfamiliar with the opener role, and was successful in it in the Dodgers’ last series. He has been highly effective as an opener/reliever this season. A bullpen day might be alarming for any team but the Dodgers. Relievers collectively have had an ERA of 1.86 in their last 7 games. The Braves pen has also been effective, however they were facing a weak-hitting Brewers team rather than the Giants. The Dodgers had their moment of offense vs the Giants. The Braves were stymied for the most part by the Brewers’ fine starters, but can score some runs, especially with the long ball. I like the total in this game, and the best odds are for the first half. The Dodgers have enough options to prevent the game from getting out of hand, and Fried is as good a bet for a low total as there is. Take this game to go under in the first five. |
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10-16-21 | Chelsea v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Chelsea vs Brentford Coming into this game, Chelsea has scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 games. The addition of Romelu Lukaku has made this team nearly unstoppable. After 7 matches, they have eight players with more than 2 points, including three with 4. Brentford has looked very solid in their first season in the EPL. With only one defeat, they've proved to everyone that they can compete. In their 7 games, they've scored atleast 2 in 4 of those. With both teams scoring a lot, and both looking for a huge boost in confidence, I expect a highly contested, lots of goals scored game here on Saturday. Take the OVER. |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Sale) vs Astros (Valdes) If you look at the stats from the last series, the Sox/Astros matchup will likely be decided by the bats. The Red Sox offense is red hot, and the two teams are 1-2 in the post season in offense. Not so for the pitchers; both teams’ ERAs are over 4. Sox starter Chris Sale struggled in his first postseason start, lasting only 1 inning, and in his previous regular season start. For such a strong starter, he has been historically poor in post season play. The talk is that “some mechanics adjustments have been made”, but it is hard to know what to expect from Sale today. Valdes didn’t pitch well in his PS start either, nor his previous regular season start, but is very good at home and in previous post season action. The Astros are a very good home team, and good vs left-handed pitching. Their relievers struggled in the White Sox series. The Red Sox are not the best road team, are poor as a road underdog and average vs. lefties. That said, it is the post season, and one wonders about the value of stats at the moment. After their last outings, these two starters are wildcards today. The Astros are a favorite, and totals are about average. The Astros dominated the Red Sox this year in regular season play. I am banking on offense and Sale's inability to bounce back today. Take the over in the first five innings. |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Dodgers (Urias) vs Giants (Webb) Julio Urias, a 20 game winner is 1-0 for the postseason, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings.. He had a very strong finish to the regular season with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.20 in September. He twice faced the Giants in July, allowing 2 runs total over 12+ innings. Urias is tried and tested in postseason play. For the Giants, Logan Webb allowed no runs over 7.2 innings in the most dominant start of this series. This will certainly be the 24 year old’s biggest game. The Giants have not lost against the Dodgers with Webb on the mound. The question is can Webb repeat. He will likely need to, as the Dodgers have had good success against the Giants’ relievers. Plan B, should Webb falter, would be Gausman, who fared poorly in his start. Everyone and anyone will be available in relief, so bull pen stats are useless in a game like this one. The Giants are historically good against lefties, but this is not the case in recent weeks. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have outhit the Giants by a considerable margin in this series. A very low total is available for the first half of the game. Lightning or Webb could strike twice, but the second time around might not go quite so smoothly for these two starters. Take the over in the first five innings. |
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10-13-21 | Canucks v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
Canucks vs Oilers After a rough season last year, the Canucks have made many changes with the expectation of improving the team. Training camp didn’t work out quite as expected. Their two best players were late starts at training camp due to contract issues. Defenseman Harmonic is still a no-show. There will undoubtedly be a settling in period for all the new faces. The Canucks may be very weak in their own zone early, if not for the whole season. The Oilers still sport two of the top players in the league and managed to beat the Canucks 3-2 in exhibition without McDavid and Draisaitl even in the lineup. The Canucks should be good for a couple of goals, and the Oilers may take the opportunity to run wild in their fans-in-building home opener. Take this game to go over the total. |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon) With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history. Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday. Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4. The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens OVER 46 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens The Colts are not having the season that they had hoped for so far. After losing 3 straight, they finally cracked the winning collumn in last weeks victory over the Dolphins. Indy has now seen 4 of thier last 5 games finish OVER the Total. For thw Ravens, the've stated 3-1, undefeated since the OT loss in week 1. In last week's win, they scored 17 points themselves in the first half. I expect them to have their foot on the gas again in this one. With the Colts needing a win and the Ravens looking to put up points right out of the gate, I believe there's no question that this game should be a hugh scoring game right from the start. Take the 1st Half OVER |