Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits. At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings. Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday. Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under. 9*. |
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08-10-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting. He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching. The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under. |
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08-08-22 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing. Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately. The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home. Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over. |
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08-06-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent. The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on. He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched. He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season. His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle. In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games. Saturday's total is generous. Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late. Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*. |
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08-06-22 | Yankees v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp. The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average. Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA. Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday. The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over. |
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07-29-22 | Twins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles. Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length. The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month. While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres. Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*. |
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07-26-22 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
It is hard to know what to think about the Rays this season. They’ve lost three straight, scoring just 6 runs total. This is a team seriously depleted by injury on the offense and pitching sides, with their usually exceptional bullpen not quite up to standard. They are not particularly good on the road this season, however they run out their ace McClananhan (10-3, 1.71). He hasn’t given up more than one run per 6 or 7 inning start in his last five appearances, with a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 8 to 1 in June and July. The 6-4 Orioles are impressing lately, especially at home. They beat the Yankees in their last series and downed the Rays last night. The O’s are getting solid offense and fine support from their relievers lately. Watkins pitches on Tuesday, His season blew up in May, but since returning to the big leagues he has put up 4 straight quality starts, giving up just 3 runs total. He has held opposing batters to a .177 BA in July. Nobody has solved either of these two pitchers recently, and at least one team is struggling on offense. McClanahan is good for length and the Orioles’ pen is very good lately. I am taking the under today, and so should you! |
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07-25-22 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July. The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start. We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9* |
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07-24-22 | Marlins v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday. Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening. The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats. Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday. |
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07-23-22 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 34 m | Show |
The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35. The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late. I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under. |
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07-22-22 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately. The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball. Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars. |
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07-17-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count. The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole. The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road. It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low. This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals. Take the over on Sunday> |
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07-17-22 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half. We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total. He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard. The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series. It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season. Berrios is the big question tomorrow. Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each. Take the Total to go over on Sunday. 9 stars. |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total. His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts. The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games. Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over. Take the total to go over 6.5 |
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07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light? The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under. |
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07-03-22 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games. The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue. Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today. |
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07-01-22 | Red Sox v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400. But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week. Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! \The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday. |
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06-28-22 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game. Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits. Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well. Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one. |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The “never say die” Lightning have stretched the series to a sixth game at home, on the backs of Vasilevskiy and a tight style of play. They have managed to control the Av’s offense to the tune of just 2 goals allowed in their last three games, much better than I expected. They have the advantage of the final change tonight, and may have the Av’s wondering just what they have to do to beat Tampa’s goal-tender. Kuemper has played well but not at the same standard as the Tampa net-minder. The Av’s gave up twice the number of penalties in game five and it burned them. They too will have to play a tighter game; their success came when they limited the Lightning’s shot totals in games one and two. Those totals have crept up closer to 30 lately. Kuemper’s play can’t stand the impact of too many mistakes. I expect to see an even tighter game today. I am sticking with the total, but have been burned on the over. Find the highest available line tonight and take the under. |
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06-26-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians. The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins. Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching. I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy! |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Av’s at home were a force at home this season. They are better rested and probably healthier, if the rumors around the Lightning are true. Kadri is back and made an impact, and Kuemper looked much better, especially in the early going when the Avalanche were badly outshot. Even with an early goal against and the Lightning all in, the Avalanche managed to turn the tide, and were back to their dynamic selves by the finish. It was a demoralizing loss for the Lightning, and I don’t know if they have a road win in them, but they won’t give up easily, and there is always the Vasilevskiy factor to consider. The odds on the Av’s are very high. I am sticking with the total in Game Five. At home, with the better energy, and the Cup in sight, I expect Colorado to be on fire on offense from the opening faceoff. Game Five could be a more wide open affair. If the Av’s score early, the Lightning will be force to follow. Shop around and take the total to go over. |
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06-24-22 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings. The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19! Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under. |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
What a difference home ice has meant in this series! It would be easy to blame Kuemper for the Game Three loss; a .773 Save %is unacceptable at any time. A finger can also be pointed at the Av’s defense, who after a brilliant effort in Game 2, allowed double the number of shots and had obvious gaffes and missed coverages. More disciplined disciplined play is vital; the Av’s allowed far too many PP opportunities. Kudos must go to the Lightning. A proud and experienced team answered back in a big way, with a much better game from their offense and from Vasilevskiy. What can we expect in Game Four? The Av’s goaltending is the biggest issue, but I expect a much better effort from the Colorado defense. I don’t expect to see the Av’s held to 2 goals, Vasilevskiy or no. If the Lightning can deliver another effort similar to Game 3’s, a second home win is not out of the question. This is the first time in the play-offs that the Av’s have been shut down, and I expect a huge response tonight. A winner is very much up in the air, but I was burned badly in underestimating Tampa Bay at home, and I am not about to be struck twice. I am sticking to the total tonight. Take Game Four to go over. |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
After the Avs' shelling of Vasilevskiy and the Lightning on the road in Game two, a home-side rebound is expected from Tampa. No one expected seven goals against from the “best goalie on the planet” any more than a 16 shot shutout from Kuemper. The scoring chances in game two were completely lopsided; the Lightning will do everything in their power to slow Colorado down on home ice, and with the final change will at least have the player match up they want. I expect a better game from Vasilevskiy and tighter play from Tampa, but the Lightning are going to be awfullyy hard to slow down. Game 2 was a masterful demonstration of defense by the Avs. I expect them to attempt more of the same disciplined play on defense, but I am sure the Lightning will be better in Game three and test Kuemper more often. A total of over 5.5 is available. In this case, take the over. |
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06-19-22 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well. Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts. The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week. I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under. |
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06-18-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
What do I expect in game two of the Stanley Cup final? A tighter game, with Tampa Bay attempting to control more of the Av's "turn on the afterburners" style of play. A better game from Vasilevskiy, who also took a game to get going vs. the Rangers. The Lightning allowed 37 shots and Vasilevskiy was under .900 in save %. The Lightning can't win with that kind of performance from their star attraction. For the Av's, they will need to avoid a 2nd period slump, but they held the Lightning to just 23 shots, so they can continue with more of the same, and hope for a better performance from Kuemper. Kuemper had a long lay-off previous to Game one, and is capable of a much better game. It is easy to underestimate the Av's defense. They were 9th in the regular season, and started to play a tough play-off style in meaningful games late in the regular season. The Av's are a moderate favorite today, but if Vasilevskiy plays to his capabilities, an Avalanche win is certainly not assured. I can't see the Avs breaking this game open, and I expect Kuemper to rebound. The best bet today is still the total. Take the Avs and Lightning to go under 6 goals. |
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06-15-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The Avalanche are potent and fast on offense, well-rested, and have run over their opponents to date. The only issue on the horizon, other than the loss of Kadri, is their goal-tending. Kuemper has been nothing special to date, and could be too rested as we saw with Vasilevskiy in game one of the Rangers series. Speaking of Vasilevskiy, the Lightning net-minder came back and proved his worth in the rest of that series, and is the largest stumbling block between the Avs and the Stanley Cup. The Avs are a much better team on offense, and will exert far more pressure on the Lightnings’ defense and goal-tending. Tampa Bay limited the Rangers to under 25 shots in games 5 and 6. The Avs were over 40 shots in every game vs. the Oilers, and will have more than their share of attempts on the Tampa Bay net. The Lightning are the veterans in the playoff final series, but the Avalanche have under-achieved in past years and will have all the desire in the world coming in to this game. Colorado has been a monster on home ice. The Lightning were not prolific in goals-for vs. the Rangers, but faced a standout goaltender. I expect they will have more success vs. Kuemper, especially in Game one. Take the Over between the Lightning and Avalanche on Wednesday night. |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently. The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year. It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today. |
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06-11-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Lightning roll into Game 6 a heavy favorite, and are looking to keep that home ice advantage intact and finish the Rangers, but I can’t see New York rolling over easily. Shesterkin has perhaps been out-dueled lately by Vasilevskiy but is still a formidable goaltender. Games 4 and 5 were not easy wins for the Lightning; the young Rangers’ side has come a long way in the playoffs this year, and should not be counted out today. What we saw in game 5 was a tighter effort from both teams and a significant drop in shot totals, not to mention the 4th straight low total. I took the Lightning to win in Game 5, but won’t play them on today’s odds. With the same total line available today, I am back with the under. I expect game 6 to be even tighter and definitely more disciplined. Take the Rangers and Lightning to go under the total. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
OK. So we’re looking to make it 4-0 in the NBA Finals tonight and I like the Under. Both teams have seen a decline in their respective three-point shooting percentages each game and I don’t see the same kind of high-scoring first half (124 points) we had in the last game. Boston playoff games have averaged just 208.8 points. Game 2 of this series, which they lost, was well below that number. But the two Celtics wins over the Warriors both went Over. This despite them holding Golden State to an average of 104 points in those two games. The Celtics have averaged 118 points in their two wins in the series. Win or lose, I don’t think they’re hitting that number tonight. The Warriors allow just 105.6 points per game off a loss, which is slightly lower than their overall season average. During their entire playoff run, Boston has rarely seen two straight games go Over the total. The Over hit each of the first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals (low totals), but that’s the ONLY Over streak for the Celtics in the playoffs. Since that run of three straight Overs in the last round, the last three times the Celtics have been off an Over, the games have seen just 184, 196 and 195 total points scored. Play the Under. |
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06-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games). The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5. I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson. |
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06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The Lightning will be buoyed up by the last minute victory, and are a large favorite vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. For another win they will have to shut down a hot Zibanejad, and put a few past Shesterkin, and there are no guarantees of either. I am looking for another big game from Vasilevskiy and banking on another low total. |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Avs can finish the Oilers with a road win tonight. Injuries have now become an issue in the series. The Avalanche have weathered the loss of Kuemper, as Francouz has filled in very well. Missing Kadri and Burakovsky hurts, but the Oilers win miss Kane (suspended) and Yamamoto just as much. It is very impressive the way the Avs have controlled the Oilers’ explosive offense since game 1, managing McDavid on ice where no one else could. Credit is due especially to Toews and Makar. I expect an all-out siege by McDavid and Co. tonight, but have underestimated Colorado’s defense twice and won’t be burned again. The Oilers are missing two key pieces on offense today. With Draisatl still limping about, the Oilers were already limited in secondary scoring, and can ill afford to lose them. Good as he is, McDavid cannot win on his own. Take the under today. |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ streak of consecutive wins after losses was broken in Game 2. The question is, can they restart the streak tonight? They are at home, where they have been effective in both regular season and playoffs, and in a must-win situation. The Rangers badly out-played the Lightning in Game 2, and are healthier, but haven’t been the same team on the road for the season and the play-offs. Other than the outlier in Game 7, their goal production vs the Hurricanes dropped considerably in road appearances. The Rangers have a young team and are likely fired up, but the Lightning have experience on their side. Look for a bounce back from Tampa Bay’s top players, and expect a much better performance from the Lightning. The issue for Tampa is, of course, Shesterkin. Considering his play in this series and last, it is hard to believe that the Lightning can run up the score tonight. Rangers + 1 ½ is a likely outcome, but is prohibitively expensive. I am back on the total. Look for some thing of a goaltender’s duel, and take the under. |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Down 2-0, the Oilers are up against it, and need a win. With home ice, the Oilers will have that coveted last change, so expect to see more from the McDavid line tonight. The Oilers to date have managed to bounce back in these playoffs, but they face a very fine team who have been great on the road to date. Edmonton's defense and goaltending has not slowed the Avs down. While I expect the Oilers will test Francouz much more tonight, I am not confident of an Oiler win. As well as McKinnon's line has played, Kadre has been a beast in the playoffs, and no one has solved him yet. I do expect another fine game from McDavid, the best in the business. Look for a better result from the Oilers, and take the Over today. |
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06-03-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
I think everyone expects a much better game out of the Lightning in Game 2, particularly considering Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ near magical ability to bounce back after a loss. Vasilevskiy was rusty and he must be smarting after such a disappointing start. The Lightning need at least 1 win on Rangers ice, to win the series, but Shesterkin stands in their way. The Lightning had nearly 40 shots on him in game one with limited results. I expect a goalie duel tonight, but am not confident of a Lightning victory at MSG. A sharp goalie has and can steal a series, and Shesterkin has the hot hand at the moment. I was wrong on the total last time, but I think I have it right today. Take the total to go under. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
The Western Conference Finals was an unkind series for yours truly, but I went 4-2 in the L6 games of the Eastern Conference Finals. It was Boston coming through as a 10* play in Game 7. For Game 1 of the NBA Finals, I’m focusing on the total. In a series that figured to be low-scoring going in, the Celtics & Heat combined to score 212 or more points in four of the seven games. Now Boston faces a Golden State team that has averaged the most points per possession in the league during the playoffs. The Warriors have averaged 114.5 points/game in the playoffs, which is more than they averaged during the regular season. Assuming they can reach, or just come close to, that average, then it shouldn’t be much of a problem seeing this game go Over the total. The fewest points scored by the Warriors over their last six games is 109. This is the lowest O/U for any of their playoff games. The Warriors shot better than 51% in all three home games last round. That’s pretty significant as Dallas was the #2 team in points per game allowed in the regular season. Take the Over. |
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06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
It is hard to imagine the Av’s and Oilers in a low scoring game after game one’s results. The worst fears around goal-tending came to pass with Smith pulled and Kuemper out. Francouz saw action against Nashville and played effectively, but was overwhelmed, as were both of the starting goaltenders, on Tuesday night. The game finished with 84 shots. Short of a goalie absolutely standing on his head, it will be all about the offense again on Thursday. I expect we will see more from the Mc’s, (McDavid and McKinnon), and while I am sure both team will be working to adjust, I am confident of another high total. In fact I am surprised the total is not even higher for game 2. Take the Over again. |
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06-01-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The Rangers face the Lightning on a short turn around, and will finally face a #1 goaltender, and a hot one at that. Let’s not forget that the Rangers did not dominate on offense this year. The matchup between goaltenders will likely define this series. Tampa could be inconsistent in the regular season, but experience counts in the playoffs, and the Lightning have been very solid in their first two series. They were not the best road team in the regular season either, but again have turned that around in the playoffs. The Lightning stymied the Panthers, the league’s top offense in 4 straight, with Vasilevskiy allowing just 3 goals total, so Tampa stand a very good chance of shutting down the Rangers who were 17th in scoring this season. The Rangers had some success against the Lightning in th regular season, but are on a quick turn around after a tough seven game series against a very well-rested Lightning team. Their biggest weapon against the Canes was Shesterkin, and he will likely be just as tough in this series. The Rangers were badly out shot in the last series, and will not be facing a team like Carolina that could not win on the road. It is early days in this series, and I will wait and see on picking a side, but I am firm on the total today. Take Game 1 between the Lightning and Rangers to go UNDER. |
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06-01-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Jays are on a roll, the White Sox, no so much, however they have Kopech (8 starts, 1.29 ERA) on the mound today, who has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Kopech spent most of 2021 as a reliever, but it is as a starter this year that he has really shone. He has given up just 6 runs in 8 starts, with opposing batters hitting just .103. The Jays haven’t faced Kopech as a starter. His last outing was a 7 innning shutout. The Jays counter with Ryu, who has bounced back from a poor April and a stint on the IL. Ryu can be the master of the slow stuff, but when things go wrong, they go very wrong in a hurry. He has had 3 solid starts in a row now, giving up just 3 runs over 15 innings. The White Sox’ bullpen has struggled lately with an ERA of 5.26. The Jays’ has been better, but not stellar, and their slumbering offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks. The Sox are hitting well for average, but have been short on power for much of this season. With the Jays’ first real look at Kopech and Ryu on a roll, I like the sounds of the total today. Take the Sox and Jays to go under. |
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05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The Oilers are off an unexpected series win vs the Flames, and most certainly, it ws all about offense and speed. And McDavid. Other players came up big as well including late edition Kane. The Oilers will meet their match today in a well-rested Avalanche team, also exceptionally fast, and big, and with another very good Mc-player. Goaltending could be an issue in this series, although Smith got the job done, inspite of a couple of low moments. Kuemper gave up more than his share of goals in the series vs the Blues as well. I am not sure that low totals and a high octane series are very compatable. In the regular season, it was all about the home team and the over when the Av's and Oilers met. By all rights, this game should be fast and furious. I am banking on the expected to happen until I see otherwise. Shop around and take the over. |
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05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
The Hurricanes have been completely dominant at home this season and throughout the play-offs, but the goal-tending in Game six might put this streak in question. Shesterkin, if anything, appears to be improving, but Raanta’s breakdown in game six could be an issue. Raanta’s play in this series has been just as lopsided home vs. away as the Hurricanes’, with a much higher save percentage in Carolina. The combination of net-minding and/or defensive play really has been superlative in all of the Hurricanes’ home dates. Let’s not forget that it is not just the Canes who struggle on the road. The Rangers were not been the same team on the road, at 26-18 away and 33-10 at home this season. Even after last games’ higher total, I still think the most likely outcome today, is a low score. Look for Shesterkin to continue his fine play, Raanta to rebound, and Carolina to limit the Rangers’ opportunities. I am again wagering on the Under today. |
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05-29-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The Pirates face the home-team Padres today, and each team has a young and, so far, successful starter on the mound. Pirates’ right-hander Contreras has been up and down from Triple A a couple of times, but in between has pitched masterfully with just 1 run given up over 11 innings. His last outing was a five inning shutout. I doubt we can expect much more length than that today. Padres’ lefty, Gore is the more tested of the two, with 7 starts and an ERA of 2.06. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings once, but otherwise has been exceptional. As far as relief pitching goes, the Padres have a definite edge; the Pirates’ lair has struggled lately, where the Padres’ relievers have been razor sharp in their last ten games. Pittsburgh can’t seem to hit a lick this year, dragging up the rear for the full season. They are particularly feeble vs left- handed pitching of late. Th Padres aren’t much better for power, earning just 3.3 runs per start to date. Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher, usually an advantage to the pitcher. Both starters have looked very composed to date. While the Padres should be favored today, the lop-sided odds suggest a close look at the total. Offenses considered, I will take these two pitchers to continue their fine play. Take the Pirates and Padres to go under. |
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05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The Rangers are at home in a must win situation. This series has been remarkably consistent, with each team winning at home, and the NHL’s best and 2nd best defensive teams keeping the score down. Can we expect a Rangers win tonight? It likely depends on Shesterkin. Carolina has out-shot the Rangers in their last three games, limited NY to just 17 shots last time out, and finally broken through with a power play goal in game five. They have played much better on the road vs the Rangers than they did vs. the Bruins, without results. Yet. With Raanta 0-4 in away games, I expect Carolina to be even tighter-checking on Saturday, and look for some special teams success. The Rangers will be all in, but will have their hands full. With Shesterkin in net and the balanced defence of the Hurricanes to deal with, you can count on another low scoring affair. 5 ½ goals is still available. I am on the UNDER. Take it and run! |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
After a surprisingly high-scoring start, this series has become what we all thought it would be, a slugfest. The last two games, both Boston wins, have gone Under as only 184 and 173 total points were scored. We very well may see more than that here tonight, but expect Game 6 to still stay Under the total. The Heat are facing a must-win here to force a Game 7 in Miami. With their starting five having scored a total of just 60 points the last two games, it would be in the team's best interest to ratchet up the defensive intensity. Fortunately, I don’t think that will be much of a problem. The Celtics are just 18 of 67 from three-point range in the last two games. That’s well below 30%. Over the course of the entire postseason, the Heat are allowing just 100.2 points per game. But, for Miami, the problem is that they are only averaging 98.2 points themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals while barely shooting 40%. The Celtics allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season and have been just outstanding at the defensive end the last two games. With the teams combining to miss 61 of the 78 three-point attempts in Game 5, there’s no reason to expect either side to hit 100 tonight. The Under is 6-2 in the Celtics' last eight games when favored. |
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05-27-22 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Blues showed their mettle and beat the Av’s in Colorado in come from behind style in game five. The Avalanche have beaten the Blues twice in St. Louis this season and, given their history in the second round of the playoffs, will not want to take any chances on a game seven. Look for all out offense from the Avalanche, but as in game five, don’t underestimate the Blues. St Louis is built for the playoffs, and actually out-performed Colorado in offense in the regular season. I expect another high scoring game. The only two games that went under in this series were when Binnington was in net. Husso and Kuemper have not impressed, although the nature of this series has not favored defensive play. The Blues and Avalanche have a history of high-scoring games. We have seen three straight overs and I expect another one today. Take the Avalanche and Blues to go over in Game six. |
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05-27-22 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The Rays lost at home to the Yankees on Thursday, and will look to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1.32 ERA) to turn things around. Springs will have a pretty good chance in doing so. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 3 starts under his belt, and his 2nd and last starts were 5 inning shutouts. While not completely stretched out, he appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year. While the Rays’ pen failed them last night they are generally a very good bullpen, so Springs’ length is not critical today. The Yankees rely on Taillon (2.95 ERA) today. His worst start came just 2 appearances ago, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings, but in 7 other starts, it has been 2 runs or less. He gives up a fair number of hits, hut has limited hard contact to date. They Yankees generally have a very fine group of relievers, but are missing 3 key members and are struggling lately. The Yankees could be missing a trio of big boppers today, and while their offense has been dominant this year, they are just as fallible vs quality pitching as anyone else. They have little experience or success vs Springs. All things considered, I expect a relatively low scoring affair this evening. Take the Yankees and Rays to go Under today. |
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05-26-22 | Oilers v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Picking a winner tonight between the Flames and Oilers is a very tough call. The Flames are up against it, and have been dominant on home ice this season, but they have not been able to solve a high-flying McDavid and the rest of the Oilers offense. Goaltending has been a huge question mark for both teams, and an enormous pair of goalie gaffs in game four had a decided impact on the game. Markstrom's issues are unusual, but the Oilers' speed on offense has been phenomenal. I am not sure that any goaltender would have much success at this point. The Flames likely will regroup today, and do have a very fine and balanced attack themselves, and considering the play we have seen to date, a low scoring affair is unlikely. The Total has climbed as high as 7 today, and I too expect another high scoring game. Shop around for the best odds and take the total to go over. |
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05-26-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
With the series now tied, Carolina returns home where they have been dominant all season, and unbeaten in the playoffs. The Rangers are far less impressive on the road, but have the huge wildcard in this series which is Shesterkin. After mixed results in the Penguins series, he has been lights out in series two. Raanta and the Hurricanes allowed an uncharacteristic 4 goals last game, but their ability to dominate on home ice cannot be overlooked. Their inability to score in this series is also significant. A very low scoring win for the Hurricanes is the most likely result, but a Rangers’ victory is not out of the cards. The Canes have yet to give up more than 2 goals on home ice in the playoffs, and facing the League’s best goalie, another low total is a more dependable wager than picking a side on Thursday. I am sticking with the Under again today. |
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05-25-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
The Rangers unexpectedly swept the Angels in their home series, but have struggled since, losing 5 of 6 games. The Angels have been streaky, recently winning 3 straight. Yound lefty Detmers starts for the Angels. Famous now for his no hitter, he has otherwise been pretty average, with relatively short starts and a 4.15 ERA. Other than the one start, he has consistently struggled after the third inning. For Rangers starter Otto, it has been the reverse. One very bad outing (8 runs over 3.2 innings) has skewed an otherwise reasonable start. In his other 4 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. With rare exceptions, neither pitcher has thrown for length this season, and both bullpens have struggled recently. The Angels’ pen has an ERA of over 5.00 in their last ten games, whilethe Rangers relievers’ ERA is over 4.00 in their last five games. There is no contest on offense. The Angels are at the top of the heap in OPS with the Rangers bottom-feeders on offense for the season. I think it will be the Angels offense and both bullpens that decide this game. Look for plenty of runs late in the game, and take the OVER today. |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Do or die for the Mavericks tonight as it’s win or go home (rather, stay home). They face a seemingly insurmountable 0-3 series hole, something no team in NBA history has ever climbed out from. So how should you play Game 4? I like the Under. The Under is 33-14-1 in all Mavs’ home games this year and it did cash in Game 3 where only 209 total points were scored. While I do think Dallas is going to score more tonight than they did Sunday, let’s also not forget they are giving up just 101.1 points per game at home this season. That’s tops in the NBA. So don’t rule them out yet. The Under is 4-0 the last four times Dallas has been favored. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been an underdog. The Warriors have shot exceptionally well in this series. But Game 3 (46.9%) saw a steep decline from the first two games where they shot 56.1% at home. For tonight, expect shooting along the lines of Game 3, or probably an even lower percentage. Luka Doncic has put up 40 or more points each of the last two games. Only Hakeem Olajuwon and LeBron James have ever gone three straight Conference Finals games with 40+. So Doncic should cool off. We should also see fewer free throw attempts than we did in Game 3. There were 59 FT attempted Sunday, up from 54 and 37 in the first two games. |
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05-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
One very good and one exceptional goaltender, and the first and second-ranked defensive teams in the regular season have made this a very low-scoring series. The Hurricanes have been completely consistent to date, losing all road games, but game 3 was their best road effort yet, out-shooting the Rangers by a wide margin. Special teams played a big role. Essentially, the Rangers scored on their PP, and the Hurricanes couldn’t. I am not convinced that Carolina will not win on the road tonight, but Shesterkin in top form (as he seems to be now) is a huge limiting factor. Look for Carolina to do what they do best, and hinder the Rangers’ offense. They were the regular season’s best penalty-killers, so should have an edge in the limited penalty opportunities. All three previous games have gone under and 5 ½ goals is now available. Take today’s game to continue the pattern of low scoring meetings. I am wagering on the Under again. |
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05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
The Blues are at home, and undoubtedly stirred up by the questionable hit on Binnington. Husso is back in the net, and while he shone in the regular season, he hasn't shown as well in the playoffs. The Blues will be fired up, but are in a precarious position, and will need to focus on the game. Kadre will be a target today, but like him or not, he has been a force and a distraction in this series. The Avalanche bounced back after being stymied in the 2nd game in Denver, and can only benefit from the loss of Binnington. I am looking for a bit of a hornet's nest today, with a lack of discipline a real possibility, and more than the average numbers of goals scored. With two very good offenses ready and waiting today , take the Over. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This series continues to be higher scoring than expected, although Game 3 probably should NOT have gone Over the total. There were 22 points scored over the final 81 seconds of the game. That’s pretty ridiculous. The Over is now 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. I think that trend ends tonight. Miami jumped out to a huge early lead in Game 3 and never trailed, though Boston did get within one in the fourth quarter. Despite that wire to wire win, the Heat look to be at a major disadvantage heading into Game 4 as five key players are listed as questionable, among them Jimmy Butler. The others are Lowry, Tucker, Strus and Herro. I just don’t think Miami is going to score a lot of points tonight. Bam Adebayo did have 31 on Sunday. But that came after he scored just 16 points total in the first two games and 38 the previous four. Asking him to match, or even exceed his playoff-high (31), seems like asking a lot here. I also don’t think Boston’s Jaylen Brown is going to offer up a repeat of his Game 3 performance where he scored 40 - ten more than he’s had in any other game in these playoffs. Coming into this series, we all knew about the defensive prowess of the two teams. Miami is still only giving up 100.6 points per game in the playoffs while Boston is allowing 103.5. The oddsmakers were smart to set low totals for the first three games. But, with the Heat & Celtics now a combined 16-0 Over their last 16 Conf Finals games, I saw the Under is due for a turn. |
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05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This "barn burner' style series returns to Edmonton with the series tied up, not something the Flames wished for. The Oilers are very good at home, and the home team has been very successful when these two teams meet. The Flames appeared to have no real answer for the Oiler's blazing fast play, and Markstrom has not been his usual dominant self. The Oiler's goal-tending, although better in game two, is still an issue. I expect Sutter, the Flames' no nonsense coach, to have his club motivated tonight, but McDavid is really carrying the Oilers, and showing that he really is the very best. I wouldn't want to pick a winner tonight, but another high total seems likely. Take tonight's total to go over again. |
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05-22-22 | Panthers v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
Florida is a very good road team, and will need to be tonight, facing the Lightning down 2-0 and in Tampa Bay. That formidable and explosive offfense has not been evident yet, and the inept PP in a big issue. Vasilevskiy is an even bigger issue. He has been terrific in net for the Lightning, and appears to be peaking at just the right moment. As good as the Panthers are on the road, they face a very good home team tonight. The Lightning have won all three meetings between the two clubs this year, and are experienced play off performers, not something to be said about Florida. I like Tampa Bay's chances for 3-0, but I especially like the total today. Bet on Bobrovski and Vasilevskiy, and take the total to go under. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
It’s been a surprisingly high-scoring first two games in the Eastern Conference Finals with 225 and 229 total points scored. Each team won once in Miami and neither game was all that close. With each game going Over by more than 20 points, I’ve got a feeling the public will look at this number being too low. I think it’s too high. I had the Under in Game 1, which was a mistake. But banking on a Boston shooting resurgence for Game 2, I took the Over. That resurgence is exactly what took place Thursday night. The Celtics not only made 51.2 percent of all shots, they were also 20 of 40 from three. Even at home, they won’t match that kind of three-point output. The Celtics are only averaging 13 made threes per game for the year, same as Miami, who led the league in 3ptFG%. Boston started fast in the two games at Miami. They averaged 66 points in the first half. Look for Miami, who is allowing only 100.5 points per game in the playoffs, to slow them down. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Heat have been coming off a game where they gave up 125 or more points. The Celtics are of course also an elite defensive team. They led the league in scoring defense in the regular season. The Under was 3-1 in their home games in Round 2 vs. Milwaukee. All three Unders saw less than 200 total points scored. Take the Under here. |
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05-21-22 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
The Blues and Avalanche move to St Louis, with the series split. Binnington was solid again in game 2 as the Blues rebounded with a solid and deserving win. They shut down the Av’s dynamic offense, limiting them to just 31 shots-for after the 54 shots allowed in game one. The Blues are a good home team and the Av’s are much less dominating on the road. The Avs are still favored, and with that round two monkey on their back are expected to respond in a big way. Binnington seems to have found that “lights out” form, and the Blues’ size and structure make them a tough play-off match up. The Blues limited a very good Wild offense to just 5 goals in the last three games of the first round. Now with that critical Blues road win, this is a very different series. Tonight’s game could be tighter than expected. I think St Louis can keep this game close but the odds on the puck line are very high. Today's best bet is on the total. Take the Blues and Avs to go under today. |
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05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The Jays bats have been a big disappointment lately. Thought to possess a formidable offense this year, they are hitting just .215 vs right-handers, and have sunk to 27th in the league in OPS. To put this in perspective, the lowly Reds have climbed from near worst to 7th, with a .755 OPS in their last two weeks. The Jays are getting good results from starting pitching but have squandered some very fine outings. Manoah (1.71 ERA), who has arguably been their best starter was the victim of a poor effort from the offense plus questionable play in the field last time out. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 7 starts to date. The Reds have also getting good starting pitching, including rookie Hunter Greene’s first quality start of his career. Greene has monster stuff but has not been able to harness it until his last start. The result was a 7+inning no hit shutout. Just about anything is possible from Greene on Saturday, but the way the Jays have been hitting, another fine outing is a possibility. The Jays are a huge favorite against the Reds, an unwarranted favorite considering the two teams’ recent action. Friday’s game ended in a 2-1 final score. Greene is just the kind of pitcher the Jays have struggled with in the past. Take Saturday's total to go under. |
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05-20-22 | Oilers v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Game one was quite a ride, with a total of 15 goals scored. I expected the Flames to step out on offense, but 9 goals was a surprise. Markstrom allowing 6 was a second shock. Cooler heads will prevail today but considering the firepower here, a high total is still likely. The Oilers goal-tending had some very large question marks throughout the season, and those issues appear to be unresolved. I expect a much better performance from Markstrom and the Flames' defense today, but McDavid will likely still do some damage. The Flames have a balanced and potent offense, and likely will prevail, but the total is the better bet today. Take this game to go over. |
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05-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Shesterkin re-found his form and Raanta was excellent in game one, as he has often been in the playoffs. While the Rangers dominated play for much of the game, the Hurricanes, 1st in defense in the regular season, do not give up many goals. They are also unbeaten at home in the play offs. The Rangers were gifted the first series, scoring well against a third string goalie. Goals may be scarce today. Carolina has played a very disciplined style in their last two outings, staying out of the penalty box, but will struggle to put the puck in the net against Shesterkin. I like the Canes' chances, but prefer the total today. Take the New York and Carolina to go under the total. |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 207.5 | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Boston made almost 40 percent of its threes in Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee. That number fell to 32.4 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, who was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, made only 33.3 percent of its threes. Yet the game still went Over rather easily with the teams combining to score 225 points. The defensive reputations of the two squads are well known by the oddsmakers and looking back in retrospect, it seems they set a trap with the Game 1 total being so low. The O/U for Game 2 is now a few points higher, not a surprise, but it is not high enough. In addition to the expected improved three-point shooting from both teams, we know that Marcus Smart and Al Horford are both banged up for Boston. It’s not looking good for Horford in Game 2 while Smart is now “probable.” But dealing with a foot injury, you can’t expect Smart to resemble the same guy who won Defensive Player of the Year. Jimmy Butler scored 41 for Miami in Game 1. He probably won’t do that again, however his teammates are likely to lend more support, making up whatever “decline” there is from Butler. These teams have combined to go over in 12 straight Conference Finals games. Both are averaging 108 points per game in the playoffs. Go with the Over. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
The Celtics are 7-4 Under in the postseason with their games averaging 210.3 points. The Heat are 8-2-1 to the Under with their games averaging just 204.6 points. So it shouldn’t come as a shock to see a low total for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I believe the number should be even lower. Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season. Miami is #2 in defensive efficiency in the playoffs. The team that was #1 in defensive efficiency, Milwaukee, is who the Celtics just eliminated. But it was a low-scoring series with five of the games going Under and seeing no more than 204 total points scored. Going back to the first round, Miami has allowed less than 100 points in six of its last eight games. They’ve allowed more than 103 only one time. Look for Boston to rightfully focus on containing Jimmy Butler in this series. Butler has been excellent in the first two rounds, but his shooting - particularly from three-point range - seems likely to decline. I make that assessment based on his regular season numbers. Boston’s last three visits to Miami have all resulted in the game going Under. Don’t look for many points in Game 1 either. Take the Under. |
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05-15-22 | Stars v. Flames OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
I like the Flames chances today, but the odds are prohibitive considering how close the series has been. Hats off to the Stars for playing their tight defensive game successfuly against an offensively-gifted team and to Oettinger who has saved this series for the Stars to date. The Stars were not a good road team this year and with Markstrom in net, their offense will be limited today but the possibility of overtime or an empty net goal makes today's total look a little light. I expect an all-out assault by the Flames' forwards. Shop around and take the over today. |
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05-15-22 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
The Rangers are at home, facing the Penguins in the deciding game. Crosby is still questionable, a huge blow if he is out or compromised. Domingue will likely still be in goal for the Penguins, and the Rangers appear to have solved him; he has allowed 4 goals in his each of his last 2 games. Shesterkin has not been his Vezina-quality self in this series, giving up 3 goals in each of his last two games, and with a very unlikely save-percentage for the last part of the series. The Rangers will have the final change, a distinct advantage in a tight series. Every game in this series has gone over, and it isn’t unreasonable to expect the same today. Crosby or no, the Penguins won’t go easily. Take the Rangers and Penguins to go OVER again today. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 207 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
Taking the Under is typically a wise move in the NBA Playoffs when a series reaches a Game 7. That is precisely what I’ll do Sunday as it is winner take all between the Bucks and Celtics. Four of the six games in this particular series have been low-scoring with 204 or fewer total points scored. Games 4 and 5 both went Over, but then it was back to the Under in Game 6. I had the Under in that penultimate game. The first eight Milwaukee playoff games all stayed Under. The Bucks have played great defense in the playoffs, not only allowing just 100.5 points per game, but also the fewest number of points per possession (#1 in defensive efficiency). Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season (104.5 points per game allowed) and then have been slightly better here in the playoffs, giving up just 103.9 points per game. Will the Celtics hit 17 threes again as they did in Game 6? Not likely! This feels like a game where if either team gets to 100 (points), then they will come out the victor. I’m wagering on the Under in Game 7. |
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05-14-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Down to the wire, and on Toronto's home ice, the Leafs and Lightning will likely do what they do best, which is step on the gas on offense. Both Campbell and Vasilevskiy are allowing more than 3.3 goals a game,and with save percentages of below .900. The Leafs' fine forwards, and in particular, Austin Matthews are bound and determined to make it out of the first round this time, but the Lightning have been here before. Five of the six games in this series have gone over, and with an expected tight game, overtime or an empty net is a distinct possibility. Take the Leafs and Lightning to continue the trend and go OVER the total today. |
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05-14-22 | Padres v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off? Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately. These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday. I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable. I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over. |
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05-13-22 | Flames v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The Flames and Stars have been less than their namesakes as far as offense goes. With the Stars at home on Friday and with the final change, don't look for it to get any easier for the Flames' offense to break out. Both goaltenders have been terrific, and the Stars have continually set the pace of this series. Dallas is a far better team when playing at home. With Calgary's potential on offense, it is tempting to expect a break-out, but kudos to the Stars for sticking to their game plan. Expect more of the same slow tempo tonight and take the UNDER. |
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05-13-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings. Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start. While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot. The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 211 | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Boston gave Game 5 away at home and now finds itself in a situation where it must beat Milwaukee two straight times. The Celtics were up by 14 in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but could not hold and some really lousy play down the stretch cost them that game. The Bucks' last two wins in this series have been by five total points though and I don’t want to play them either tonight. After Milwaukee’s first eight playoff games all went Under, the Over has been the winning bet in each of the last two games here. There were 224 and 217 points scored in those games. Look for less tonight. Jayson Tatum had 34 points in the last game for Boston. But he’s clearly been bothered by a wrist injury and won’t match that in Game 6. It’s interesting that the two Overs in this series have come with Boston’s Robert Williams III on the bench. Williams could be back for Game 6. That would be huge for Boston to have one of its premier defenders back in the lineup. Remember though that the Celtics led the NBA in scoring defense during the regular season. Milwaukee is averaging only 101.6 points per game in this series while shooting 42.7%. Pretty amazing that they are in a position to move on. Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t be counted on for 40 points every night though and Kris Middleton remains out. Games in this series have averaged only 206 points. Take the Under. |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
We turn to the total for this critical Game 6 between the Suns and Mavericks. Dallas must win here to stay alive, or Phoenix moves on to its second straight Western Conference Final. I say to expect a low-scoring affair tonight in “Big D.: The Mavs only give up 101.3 points per game at home. That is #1 in the league, almost two points better than the second best team. Phoenix averaged 97.5 points in the two games here in the series. The Under has hit each of the last three games in this series. Dallas could only muster 80 in Game 5, a sad showing where they hit just eight threes. They certainly will score more tonight. But this is a team that over its last eight games has topped 103 just three times. After shooting above 50 percent in their first eight playoff games, the Suns have finished below that mark in each of the last three games. That shouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s hard to consistently make more shots than you miss. The Under is 31-14 this year in Dallas home games. It’s an average of 209.2 points per game scored here. Another Under is in the cards tonight. |
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05-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
If Vasilevskiy’s amazing record of rebounding after a loss is to continue and Tampa Bay is to stave off elimination, he and the Lightning will have to better control the Leafs’ impressive offense. I am not sure if the Lightning are ready to bow out, especially at home. The trend in this series since the second game has been towards the over, but I am expecting tighter, more conservative play in game 6. The Leafs’ addition of Giordano has solidified their defense, and Campbell, to date in the series at least, has arguably out-played Vasilevskiy. In the end defense and goal-tending wins games, and both teams will play that way today. Look for a result similar to game one and take the UNDER today. |
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05-12-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Home ice has ruled in the Carolina/Boston series, and the Bruins' big three have benefitted from the final change. The Over has also ruled; the tendency with such defensively successful regular season teams is to lean towards the under, but it hasn't been that kind of a play-off series. Carolina has given up 5 goals in each of the Boston dates, and has historically seen the over more often that not when facing the Bruins in Boston. I do expect more than 2 goals from the Hurricanes today, however the Big Bad Bruins are down to the wire. Look for all-out effort from the pest and the rest, and take the over today. |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
It is do or die for the Rangers tonight. They play against an aging but immensely talented and experienced Penguins team, running out its third string goalie, Louis Domingue. It ought to be no contest in net with Shesterkin in net for the Rangers, but he has not been effective in his last two starts. Maybe that 83 save multiple overtime loss broke Shesterkin, but for now the Penguins appear to have his number. The Penguins are firing on all cylinders at the moment with over 40 shots in their last 2 games, and if you allow Crosby and Co. that many shots, bad things will happen. I have no faith in new cult hero Domingue’s abilities. The total is very average, and has gone over in every game in this series. Take the OVER again today. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 209.5 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The Heat went cold from three in the two games at Philadelphia, going 7 of 30 and 7 of 35 in the two games there. That’s 21.5 percent, well below their league-leading average during the regular season. But they also shot 25% from three in Game 1 of this series, which was at home. Maybe you’ve just got to credit the Philly defense. This series has seen the Under and Over alternate, neither hitting back to back games. The Over hit in Game 4, so that means it’s time to go back to the Under. The 76ers shot much better in the two home games than they did in the first two in Miami. Some of that can be tied to the return of Joel Embiid. But I also don’t think you should expect the Sixers to shoot 54% overall and 48.5% from three again like they did in Game 4. The Under remains 6-2 in all Miami playoff games. Philadelphia failed to score more than 103 in any of the first three games of this series and we should see good Heat defense tonight. Philly is 6-0 Under off their previous six games scoring 100 or more. If you can believe it, the Sixers haven’t scored 100 points in regulation back to back games since the first two games vs. Toronto. Miami scored only 79 points when it lost Game 3. They bounced back a bit to score 108 in Game 4, but I don’t see them matching that number tonight. Jimmy Butler has had to carry too much of the scoring load. Play the Under here. |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 225 | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Golden State blitzed Memphis in Game 3, winning 142-112, and now it seems unlikely that Ja Morant will suit up for the Grizzlies in Game 4. In other words, it seems like the road team is in a tough spot. Although, they have gone 20-5 straight up this season when Morant is out of the lineup. The Warriors shooting as well as they did in Game 3 caught me by surprise. Not that I didn’t expect a slight uptick after their Game 2 performance, where they made only seven three-pointers. But shooting 63% overall and 53% from three is off the charts. It was one of the best postseason shooting performances in history. It won’t be matched tonight. Memphis made 16 threes of their own in Game 3. With Morant highly questionable to play tonight, they won’t be matching that number either. Morant hit 13 threes in the first three games. Even if does somehow play, remember he wasn’t making many threes in the first round vs. Minnesota. Golden State only allows 103.1 points per game at home. Defending a Grizzlies team that is in all likelihood going to be without its top scorer seems like a “walk in the park?” Morant had 47 of his team’s 106 points in Game 2. The Grizzlies will struggle to score without him. If the reports are wrong and Morant somehow does play, he won’t be 100 percent, and thus I wouldn’t expect a big game. Grab the Under. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
We’ve yet to see an Over in this series or, in the case of Milwaukee, the entire postseason! The Bucks are 8-0 Under here in the playoffs, allowing an average of just 96.9 points per game. I believe we’ll see that Under streak come to an end tonight in Game 4 vs. Boston. It was terrible all-around shooting in Game 3. The Celtics shot 36.8% while the Bucks weren’t much better at 40.4%. Both teams shot similarly from three with Boston only making 9 of 33 and Milwaukee making 9 of 34. Still, the game very nearly made it to the 212 point total (was a 103-101 final). You have to imagine we will see better shooting, from both teams, in this game. Therefore, there will be more than just a few added points and the Over seems likely. Boston made 38 three-pointers in the first two games, so a return to form there seems obvious. The four times these teams met in the regular season, every game had a minimum of 220 total points scored. I just think we’re destined for an Under. There haven’t been too many Milwaukee games this season where the O/U was lower than it is here. |
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05-07-22 | Flames v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I can imagine that Calgary coach had some choice words for his team after the home loss. Kudos to the Stars to do what was needed to slow the pace and gain a much needed victory. It hasn't been the most exciting hockey, but a win is a win. Dallas has been very impressive at home, and looks to have a hot goal-tender. Offense is the issue for them. I expect the hard-driving Flames will find a way to win tonight but like the odds on the total much better. Look for Markstrom and Oettinger to keep the puck out of the net again and take the UNDER! |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 112-142 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The Grizzlies and Warriors are squared away at one game each. The two games have been decided by a total of six points and Memphis has covered the spread both times. They were slight underdogs at home and only lost Game 1 by a single point. As they hit the road for the first time in the series, Memphis will do so without Dillon Brooks, who is suspended for Game 3 due to injuring Gary Payton II. Though Brooks had contributed only eight points in the second round, he is considered a major loss here. In the first round series with Minnesota, Brooks had three games of 23 or more points. Payton had been a surprise starter in the first two games for Golden State, after coming off the bench in the first round. The Warriors are now going to be forced to rely more on Andrew Wiggins - at both ends of the floor. Andre Iguodala is also out for the Warriors. But perhaps the greater concern is that the team shot 7 of 38 on three-pointers in Game 2. They’ll shoot a higher percentage tonight, but I don’t think it will be enough to send this game Over the total. Game 1 did go Over, but that total opened 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 2, which went Under. The Under is 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been off a loss. The Under is 6-2 in Memphis’ last eight road games. |
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05-05-22 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues. The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games. Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better. It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over. |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field. Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start. Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five. Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
These teams combined to shoot 21 percent from three in Game 1. They were 15 of 70. Miami, the top three-point shooting team in the league, was 9 of 36, well below their season average of 37.6 percent. Philadelphia was even worse, making only 6 of 34 (17.6%). You have to figure we’re getting better three-point shooting in Game 2. James Harden, who is expected to carry the scoring load with Joel Embiid still out, finished with only 16 points in Game 1. But it wasn’t just him that undeperformed. The 76ers’ bench chipped in only 21 points total and 10 of them came from Furkan Korkmaz. The reserves were a combined 1 of 12 on three point tries. Across the board, the Sixers should be more efficient on offense tonight. That means even if Tobias Harris can’t match his 27 point Game 1 effort, we’re in good shape on this side with the Over. Miami will obviously be better from three-point range as well and Jimmy Butler should bounce back from a 15-point Game 1 where he was just 5 of 16 shooting. Philadelphia is 13-7 Over after scoring less than 100 points or less. They are also 6-1 to the Over following an ATS loss. Until the Sixers fell apart offensively in the last quarter and a half, Game 1 seemed like it might be headed Over. Game 2 promises to be higher scoring and WILL go Over. |
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05-02-22 | Blues v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Much as I am a fan of the Wild, meeting the Blues in the first round is not a good fit for them. The Wild have beaten everyone and anyone lately, and limited good teams to low goals-against, but bring in the Blues and defense goes out the window. The Wild have lost the last 5 meetings, dating back to last year. These are two very good offensive teams, 3rd and 5th in the league, and when they play, a high total has been almost a given. Husso will likely start for the Blues, and a little of the shine has rubbed off him as the season ground down. The Wild have two fine options in net. Goaltenders aside, I suspect that both teams will do what they do best, which is score goals. Don’t overlook overtime figuring prominently in this series. I’ll delay picking winners until I have seen at least one game, but I do like the total on Monday. Shop around, then take the over. |
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05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 208.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
This series took a dramatic turn before even getting underway with the announcement that the 76ers’ Joel Embiid would be out indefinitely. It has since been reported that he could return for Games 3 or 4. But we know Embiid will miss Monday’s opener in Miami. Luckily for Philadelphia, they still have James Harden, not to mention Tyrese Maxey, who poured in 38 points the last time the Sixers were in a series opener. In both the first and last game of the Toronto series, the team topped 130 points. They are 4-2 Over the next game, the previous six times they scored 130+ in a game. They are also 8-2 Over when playing with three or more days rest. The loss of Embiid is significant, but I still believe the Sixers will score. Also, this is a low total for Game 1. Lower than the closing number for any game in the Philly-Toronto series or the Miami-Atlanta series. Jimmy Butler will be back for the Heat while Tyler Herro will also play. Kyle Lowry remains out. Miami had scored 110 or more in the first four games of the Atlanta series, before winning 97-94 in Game 5 to close things out. I look at this Game 1 and think both teams can score 105 points rather easily. That is all we need. When the Sixers beat the Heat 113-106 on March 21st, not only did they not have Embiid, but Harden was also out. Go with the OVER. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 220 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY. DISREGARD. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs. The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. The Over/Under was a 2-2 split in those four regular season games, but it’s interesting that they averaged 233.3 total points scored. Expect the games in this series to be a lot lower scoring. The Bucks were 5-0 Under in the first round while posting the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Remember that Milwaukee is without its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. Wesley Matthews has been starting in his place, but it was Grayson Allen stepping up to average 20+ points in the three games without Middleton. Allen made 11 threes in those three games. I don’t see that happening against a Boston team that defended Kevin Durant so well. On the other side, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury for the Celtics. I look for a low-scoring Game 1. Grab the UNDER. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 228.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
This was expected to be the highest scoring series of the first round with totals in the 230’s. But three of the first five games have stayed Under and oddsmakers have adjusted a bit, posting a total for Game 6 that is 10 points lower than Game 1. Personally, I’ve made just two wagers in this series. I won both. It was Minnesota (+6.5) winning Game 1 outright for me, then I had the Under in Game 3. The Timberwolves should probably be the team with the opportunity to close things out tonight. Honestly, you could make the argument that they could have already won the series. Twice they blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter and lost. The second time was Game 5, which ended up being a two-point loss. Minnesota is better defensively at home, but we are still talking about the two highest scoring teams from the regular season and of the eight first round playoff series, this one is - by far - averaging the highest number of possessions per game. Expect Memphis to shoot much better from three-point range than they did in Game 5 where they were only 25 percent. They’ve scored 111 or more in all but one of the five games. Minnesota is 18-8 to the Over following a straight up loss. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Utah should have Deron Williams for Game 6, but regardless I don’t expect them to play all that well. They’ve been a bit exposed in this series by the Mavericks, who didn’t even have Luka Doncic for the first three games. Do I expect the Jazz to shoot better than 10 percent on three-pointers? That was where they finished in Game 5. Obviously, they’ll shoot better in tonight’s game. But they are averaging less than 100 points in the series. Only one game have they scored more than 104. Dallas hasn’t exactly torn it up offensively either. The last two games have seen them score 102 and 99. The Mavs played at the slowest tempo in the regular season and of the eight first round series, this one has averaged the third fewest number of possessions. Utah has been able to hit better than 32% from three in just one of the five games so far. Mitchell is hurting and no one else seems able to step it up. Another low-scoring game should be in the cards |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 209.5 | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
When Philadelphia was up 3-0 in this series, it was considered a formality that they’d move on to the second round. After all, no team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit. But all of a sudden Toronto has won two in a row, to seize momentum, and Joel Embiid is hurt for the Sixers. Embiid, despite playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, still led the team with 20 points and 11 rebounds. James Harden finishing just 4 of 11 from the field was a problem and Embiid called him out afterwards. Also, Tyrese Maxey (who was the Game 1 hero with 38 points) has seen his scoring decline throughout the series. He’s scored just 23 points combined in the past two games. The Sixers scored only 88 points in Game 5 on 38.3 percent shooting. Expect a far better effort at the offensive end this evening. The team is 6-2 to the Over following its last eight straight up defeats. Toronto and Philly combined to shoot 18 of 68 on three-pointers in the last game. That’s just over 26 percent. For the year, they combined to shoot better than 35 percent. Again, we’ll pick up points in that regard tonight. I know this has been a low scoring series - the last four games have all gone Under - but this number looks too low given what the two sides are capable of doing. Both teams’ games average right around 216 points over the course of the season. Take the OVER. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
Golden State missed out on its chance to sweep Denver, losing Sunday by a score of 126-121. But the good news is that no team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (Warriors infamously blew a 3-1 series lead in the 2016 NBA Finals) and now they are back home for Game 5 and heavily favored to close out the series. The first four games have all gone Over. The Warriors and Nuggets have combined to average 245.4 points with every game seeing 230 or more points scored. Game 4 was the highest scoring one so far. The total for Game 5 has been set a little higher than the previous games. What I don’t think will happen Wednesday is Denver shooting 56.5 percent again like they did at home in Game 4. The last two games have seen both teams shoot better than 50 percent. I don’t see that happening again either. Golden State is an elite defensive team at home where they give up an average of just 103.3 points per game. The Under is still 25-17 in Warriors’ home games this season. Denver averaged only 106.5 points in the first two games here. So, with their season still on the line, it’s up to Denver defensively. They’ve yet to hold Golden State to less than 118 points, but if they can keep them closer to 111 (what the Nuggets are allowing per game, for the year), then we’ve got a great shot at this one going Under. |
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04-26-22 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date. Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league. While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date. These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 212.5 | Top | 77-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Even with an abundance of free throw attempts, Game 4 still saw only 199 total points scored. Part of the problem was that the Jazz missed 16 of their 42 attempts from the charity stripe. Playing on the road in Game 5, Utah won’t be getting to the FT line with such regularity tonight. But I do expect them to start sinking more threes. Games 2 and 3 of this series did make it Over the total with Game 3 being the highest-scoring, finishing with 244 total points. Luka Doncic finally suited up for Dallas in Game 4 and while he scored 30, only one other Mavs player had more than 11 and the team ended up with just 99. Both teams should increase their scoring tonight. It’s been especially strange to see Utah fail to hit its season average of 113.2 points in three of the four games. They are attempting a lot less three-point tries, but I imagine we’ll see a change there for Game 5. Utah shot only 30 percent from three in the two games at home, well below their season average. Neither team shot better than 43% overall in Game 4. Again, you’ve got to think we’ll see better shot-making this evening. The Over has been a winning bet five of the last six times that Dallas has been favored. They are favored tonight (first time in the series). The Mavs have attempted 42 or more threes each of the last three games. That volume coupled with the likelihood of improved long-distance shooting by the Jazz has me on the OVER. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216 | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The last two games of this series went Over. But that was with some real hot shooting, from New Orleans in Game 2 (56.7 percent from three!) and then Phoenix in Game 3 (67% from inside the arc). I had the ATS winner of each game, but it’s back to the Under (which I had in Game 1) for Game 4. Devin Booker being out for Phoenix is a big deal. The Suns still scored 114 points without their leading scorer on Friday, but were 4 of 26 on three-point attempts and are going to continue to struggle in that regard. Booker made seven threes (all in the first half) in Game 2. The Over has hit seven straight times when these teams have played in New Orleans. But there were a lot of free throws in Game 3. The Suns and Pelicans combined to make 46 of 58 from the line. Expect a decrease in this area for Game 4. We’ve seen great overall shooting the last two games with both teams hitting over 50 percent from the field. I just don’t think that can continue. I expect the Pelicans to start missing more threes. New Orleans is 15-8 under this season playing with revenge for a home loss. Take the Under. |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 223 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Brooklyn finds itself down 0-2 in this best of seven series and while they are now at home, the Nets’ ATS record at the Barclays Center this season (9-32) leaves a lot to be desired. It is in fact the worst home ATS record in the NBA. So I’m not interested in playing them in Game 3. Games 1 and 2 both finished close to the oddsmakers’ total. Game 1 just went Over while Game 2 just stayed Under. I think Game 3 is likely to be the lowest scoring game of the series. Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and on the road, they give up an average of just 105.2 points per game. Brooklyn is 4-0 Under when trailing in a playoff series. The Nets have actually shot better from the field than have the Celtics so far, 51.3% to 47.7%. I do not believe the Nets can stay over 50% against the defensive-minded Celtics. On the flip side, the Celtics won’t shoot as well as they did in Game 2 when they finished at 52.0%. Brooklyn is shooting 46% from three in the series, which will be a difficult percentage to maintain. The Under is 21-8 in Brooklyn home games when the total is 220 points or higher. Take the UNDER. |
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04-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season. Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight. The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under. |
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04-23-22 | Islanders v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
The Sabres can be counted on for goals, for and against. 9 of their last 10 games have gone over today’s total. Their scoring has been explosive. They are far over their season’s average of 2.8 goals a game, however their defense is 25th rated. The Islanders are known for defense and goal-tending, but 5 of their last 7 games have also have been on or over today’s total. The last game between these two teams resulted in 9 goals. The Sabres are hot, winning 4 of 5 games. They are a young team who are enjoying putting things together at this point in the season. Watch the Sabres drive today’s total up and over. |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 110-111 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
After Game 1 easily stayed Under, Game 2 finished right at the number and your result on the O/U may vary. Miami scored 115 in both games while Atlanta increased its offense from 91 to 105 points in Game 2. Expect the Hawks to increase their number of points scored again here in Game 3. I’m confident in that assessment because they’re now back home, for the first time since scoring 132 in the play-in tournament against Charlotte. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 117 points/game at State Farm Arena. That’s the second highest home average in the league, trailing only Memphis. Also, the Hawks finished the regular season tops in the NBA in number of points scored per possession. Bottom line - this team can score and will tonight. The problem for the Hawks comes on the defensive end. They give up 112.2 points/game and have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 45 points in Game 2. He probably won’t match that number here, but the Heat can easily score 115 as a team again. Six of the Heat’s last eight road games have gone Over. Atlanta is shooting below 30% from three in the series and that number is going to go up tonight. The Hawks have averaged 124.5 points in their last five home games. Take the OVER. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The first two games of this series both went Over. Game 1 seemed destined to go Under, but the teams combining for a 70-point fourth quarter changed that. Game 2 saw the Warriors turn in a 44-point quarter. Denver has averaged only 106.5 points in the two games, so they are not really getting the job done offensively. Nikola Jokic has yet to make a three (0 for 8). This isn’t too surprising as Golden State is one of the top defensive teams, something they do not get enough credit for. Now the Warriors only average 109.0 points on the road, so expect their scoring to go down tonight. Jordan Poole is enjoying a breakout series as he’s drained 19 of 29 field goal attempts, which includes a sick 10 of 17 from three point range. No longer shooting at home, Poole can’t continue those numbers. When playing with exactly two days of rest between games, the Warriors are 8-1 Under this season. They are 22-8 Under in that situation since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. I just think Denver will play better defensively tonight. Golden State is 5-2 Under its last seven trips here. |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 236.5 | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Despite Game 2 finishing well below the total, the O/U line remains high here for Memphis-Minnesota Game 3. It’s not nearly as high as it was for Game 2, but considering the Under hit by 20 points in that last game, I’m not sweating it. Plus I don’t think oddsmakers have properly adjusted for the series moving to Minnesota. Timberwolves’ road games have averaged 236.5 total points this season, which would certainly seem to justify the high totals we saw in Games 1 and 2. (Game 1 did go Over, by the way). But Timberwolves’ home games have averaged only 221.6 total points this season. That is a striking split. That split is clearly reflected in the O/U results. T’wolves road games are 31-12 to the Over. At home, it’s 21-20-1 Under. The big difference is on the defensive end where Minnesota allows 10 fewer points per game at home than what they give up on the road. Their own scoring also declines by about five points per game. Memphis is 8-2 to the Under in road games when the total is 230 or higher. The number is just too high. |