Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: LA's 'free-fall' has been sudden and dramatic. Los Angeles was outscored 19-2 during a three-game home sweep at the hands of wild card-leading Arizona D'backs, trimming its lead in the NL West to 10 1/2 games. While the Diamondbacks have won 13 straight games, the Dodgers have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests. Colorado missed a chance to distance themselves from the pack in the NL wild-card race by going just 3-6 on its just-completed nine-game homestand. Colorado has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the red-hot D'backs for the No. 1 wild card spot and now is looking over its shoulder at the Cards (two back) and Brewers ( 21/2 games back). Can Colorado gain some separation on the road as it begins a crucial eight-game road trip on Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against the major league-best but suddenly struggling 92-47 LA Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (6-4 & 4.26 ERA) steps to the mound for Colorado and Clayton Kershaw (16-2 & 1.95 ERA) for LA. Gray has been very solid by allowing three runs or less in each of his last eight starts but is just 3-3 in that span (Rockies are only 3-5). Gray is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 4-3) against Los Angeles, including a no-decision on April 8 in which he allowed one run over 5 1/3 frames despite yielding four hits and three walks. Kershaw makes just his second start since missing over one month with a lower back strain. He showed no ill effects from the injury in his return, as he allowed two hits and struck out seven over six scoreless innings of a 1-0 triumph at San Diego on Friday (LA's lone win in the team's last 12 games). Kershaw yielded four runs over six frames in a loss at Colorado on April 8 but won his next three starts against the Rockies in 2017, allowing a total of four runs over 20 innings, to improve to 21-6 (3.05 ERA) lifetime versus the Rockies in 36 starts (Dodgers are 27-9). The pick: Kershaw has been un-hittable in 2017, as he'll take a 12-game winning streak into this contest (last loss was back on May 1, with the Dodgers going in 16-0 his starts over that span). Kershaw has allowed just 103 hits in 147 1/3 innings with a 175-24 KW ratio, an 0.86 WHIP and a BAA of .193! Meanwhile, Gray enters pitching well too, a job made easier by the LA bats suddenly going 'silent.' The Dodgers have lost five straight at home, while scoring just four runs (note; LA has averaged just 2.2 5 RPG in losing 11 of 12). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 155 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots open up the 2017 NFL season Thursday at Gillette Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday night on NBC. The Pats were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this preseason plus saw Julian Edelman go down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs, coming off a 12-4 record in 2016 (won AFC West), were 2-2 SU & ATS this preseason. Kansas City: Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in KC (arrived in 2013), winning 11, 11 and 12 games in his postseason years, while missing in 2014 at 9-7. The offense will look similar to last year's unit with Alex Smith at QB (1st-round pick Pat Mahomes II is in the wings) plus WR Tyreek Hill doing a little bit of everything and TE Travis Kelce continuing to prove he's one of the best at his position in the NFL. RB Spencer Ware may be lost for the season (injured in Week 3 of the preseason) but a combination of Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller may work. The Chiefs own one of the best secondary’s in the league and in Reid's four season has allowed 19.1, 17.6, 17.9 and 19.4 PPG. New England: Sure, Edelman's loss hurts but hasn't Tom Brady consistently been great under almost all circumstances? The addition of deep-threat WR Brandin Cooks from the Saints plus a now-healthy Gronk will surely give him ample targets. Defensively, the Patriots allowed a league-low 250 points last year (15.6 per) and have three all-pros from a year ago in Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Dont'a Hightower. The pick: The Pats, including the postseason, were 16-3 ATS last season and enter 2017 having lost only four regular season home games since the 2014 season. However, the Chiefs have gone 12-7 ATS as underdogs under Reid plus open the 2017 on a six-game road winning streak from 2016. Take the points and make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's 14-game winning streak has helped them all but run away and hide in the AL Central at 83-56, leaving the 72-67 Tins and the 69-69 Royals battling for a wild card spot. The Twins currently hold down the No. 2 AL wild card spot, while the Royals are one of SIX teams lurking behind Minnesota, no more than three games behind (Royals are 2 1/2 back). The two division rivals open a pivotal four-game series on Thursday in Kansas City. The Royals return home off a 4-2 road trip, while the Twins come to KC after losing two of three at home to the Royals last weekend, before opening the new week by losing two of three at Tampa Bay. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (9-10 & 5.33 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Sam Gaviglio (3-5 & 4.62 ERA) for KC. Gibson tossed six scoreless innings in a 17-0 rout of the Royals last Friday, his third consecutive win. He's allowed only three runs over 19 2/3 innings during his winning streak (1.37 ERA), dropping his ERA below 5.40 for the first time this season! He's pitched reasonably well against KC in his career, posting a 6-4 record and 3.53 ERA in 14 starts (1team is 10-4). Gaviglio was claimed off waivers from Seattle last week and will be thrust into a big spot in his Royals debut. He makes his first start in the majors since losing four straight starts with the Mariners from June 24-July 18 (allowed 17 ERs over 23 innings in that span for a 6.65 ERA). He will be seeking his first win since beating the Twins in Minnesota on June 14 (his only career start vs. the Twins), although note that Gaviglio surrendered three HRs in that win. The pick: I'm not sure what KC may have seen in Gaviglio in claiming off waivers? I see a 6.65 ERA in his last four starts while with the Mariners. As for Gibson, he owns a 1.61 WHIP and .300 BAA to go along with his 5.33 ERA on the season for the Twins. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Phillies v. Nationals -162 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals come off a three-game sweep at Miami, putting them on the fast track to their fourth NL East title in six years (currently 18 games up on the Marlins). The Nats welcome Philadelphia for a four-game series beginning tonight, in what will be a season-high 10-game homestand. The Phillies have been going nowhere most of the season and remain owners of MLB's worst record at 53-86, 32 games back of the Nats. The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (10-10 & 3.72 ERA) goes for Philadelphia and Tanner Roark (11-9 & 4.48 ERA) for Washington. Nola was shelled for the third time in four outings on Saturday, allowing six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-9 loss at Miami. In losing three of those four outings, he has allowed 19 runs on 31 hits over 23 1/3 innings for a 7.33 ERA. Nola is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings against the Nationals (team is 2-6). Roark comes in pitching well, having delivered quality starts in seven of his last nine outings. Roark owns a 4-4 record and 3.46 ERA in 13 career starts versus Philadelphia (team is 6-7). The pick: The Phillies are a woeful 25-49 on the road and while Roark's career record is not all that impressive against Philadelphia, look a little closer. He was 3-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2016 and while he has three no-decisions vs. Philly in 2017, he owns a 2.75 ERA in those games, holding the Phillies to a collective .194 batting average. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
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09-06-17 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians made it a 'lucky' 13th straight win last night, rolling over the AL-worst White Sox, 9-4. Cleveland can now match the franchise record of 14 consecutive victories (set by last season's team) when they take on Chicago in the third contest of this four-game series on Wednesday. Jose Ramirez hit two HRs in Tuesday's win (13 straight wins is the majors' longest in 2017), making him 19-for-38 with seven HRs over his last nine games. The White Sox have dropped six of their last eight and are a horrific 29 games below .500 at 54-83. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (13-6 & 3.67 ERA) starts for Cleveland and Reynaldo Lopez (0-2 & 6.06 ERA) for Chicago. Carrasco is 3-1 over his last five outings (team is 4-1) and has allowed two runs or less in four of those starts. He is just one victory away from matching the career high he set in 2015 (14-12) and 17 strikeouts shy of his second campaign with 200. Carrasco has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts (Indians are 3-0), improving his carrer record to 5-9 with a 4.82 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 8-11) against Chicago. Lopez makes his fourth start of the season for the White Sox. He seeks his first win since Sept. 29, 2016, against Arizona while with the Nationals. Lopez was acquired by the White Sox last December as part of a trade that sent outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was called up from Triple-A on Aug. 11 and placed on the disabled list due to a strained back eight days later. Lopez was reinstated Friday and took the 3-1 loss that night against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing three runs, five hits and a walk while striking out a season-high seven over six innings. The pick: Cleveland has outscored opponents 93-25 during its winning streak, has won 17 of its past 19 games away from Progressive Field (9-0 on its current 11-game road trip that ends Thursday) and the Indians now lead the AL Central by 11 games over the Twins. Cleveland prices are now 'sky-high' but I'll look to the Under to be an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Brewers v. Reds -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs have opened the week with back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh, leaving the 'door wide open' for the Brewers, who traveled to Cincinnati to play the last-place Reds (NL Central) for a three-game series. However, it's been "Opportunity Lost" for the Brewers, who lost a 5-4 squeaker on Monday and then fell again last night, 9-3. Staff ace Zach Davies did his job (allowed two runs, one earned, over 5 2/3 innings) but four relievers allowed seven runs over 2 1/3 innings. Scooter Gennett's three-run HR (8th inning) was the decisive blow in Tuesday's victory for the 60-79 Reds, who will now go for a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon. Milwaukee enters this contest 3 1/2 games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (6-8 & 4.77 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Luis Castillo (2-7 & 3.32 ERA) for Cincinnati. Garza was scheduled to pitch Sunday versus Washington but had that start skipped in the wake of another rocky outing, in which he gave up six runs (three earned) and walked five in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis on Aug. 29. Garza has been OK at home (he's 5-3 with a 3.92 ERA and the team 7-5) but on the road, it's been another story. Garza is 1-5 over nine starts (team is 2-7) with a 5.81 ERA. Garza overcame five walks to beat the Reds with 5 1/3 innings of four-run ball (three earned) on Aug. 13 but is just 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 16 starts against Cincinnati all-time (teams are 8-8). Castillo owns a respectable 3.32 ERA on the season but his win-less drought reached six starts (he's 0-3 but the Reds are 3-3) in a no-decision at Pittsburgh this past Friday, when he lasted only four innings and gave up two runs on three hits. He was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 setback to Pittsburgh in his previous outing, tying his season high with nine strikeouts and yielding one run on three hits in seven innings. He also had nine strikeouts versus Milwaukee on June 28, his lone start against the Brewers (0-0 with a 3.17 ERA in game the Reds won). The pick: Garza had that breakout season at Tampa Bay back in 2010 (15-10) but in seven-plus seasons since leaving the Rays, has won 10 games just once, pitching for the Cubs, Rangers and now Brewers. Since the beginning of 2015, his ERA is a bloated 5.05. As noted above, it's 5.81 in 2017 in nine road starts, so why trust Garza here? Meanwhile, in 14 starts in 2017, Castillo owns a 3.32 ERA, has allowed a modest 60 hits in 81 1/3 innings plus owns an opponents BA of .208. Make the Reds an 8*! |
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09-05-17 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 35 runs on 46 hits during their five-game winning streak, after they opened a 10-game road trip witha 6-2 win last night in Seattle. Houston owns the American League's best record (84-53), as well as a commanding 13 1/2-game lead in the NL West. Seattle has now dropped six of its last nine contests and sits three games behind Minnesota for the AL's second wild-card berth plus has three teams between themselves and the Twins..
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09-05-17 | Nationals -160 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Nationals won 7-2 last night in Miami over the Marlins, as Giancarlo Stanton's 53rd HR of the season (sixth in 17 games this season vs. Washington) was not nearly enough for Miami. The NL East-leading Nationals stand at 83-54 through Labor Day and while the Dodgers (92-45) and Astros (just barely at 84-53) own better record than the Nats, Washington's 16-game lead is the largest of any in MLB. The Marlins clearly have zero chance to catch Washington and the team is starting to lose touch in the NL wild card race as well, falling six games back with two teams between the Marlins and that second-wild card team (currently, Colorado). The pitching matchup: This three-game series continues tonight with Stephen Strasburg (11-4 & 2.90 ERA) going for the Nats and Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2 & 4.13 ERA) for the Marlins. Strasburg comes into this game having thrown 15 scoreless innings over his last two starts and has posted a stellar 1.35 ERA over his last seven outings, a stretch interrupted by about a three-week stay on the DL. Strasburg is 14-7 with a 3.26 ERA in 27 career starts versus the Marlins (Nats are 18-9). Despaigne is making his fourth start for the Marlins in 2017 (three in a row now), after lasting only four innings in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia last time out. Despaigne is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in five career appearances (one start / 0-1 & 21.00 ERA!) against the Nationals. The pick: Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two starts against Miami this season (both in Washington) but he 's been a better pitcher on the road this season, going 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 road starts (Nats are 9-3). Miami actually won six of the first 11 meetings of 2017 against Washington but Monday's win was the Nats' sixth in a row over the Marlins. Miami has Stanton but Washington has TOO much for the Marlins (note: Stanton was hit-less in four at-bats last Wednesday against Strasburg). Make the Nats a 10* play. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the 2017 season 2-11 and by the end of April, sat at 8-17. Toronto has never recovered from its poor start. The team which has appeared in each of the last two ALCS matchups beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Boston on Monday but through Labor Day, the Blue Jays are 64-74 (that's 56-57 since May 1). Toronto has fallen 13 games back in the AL East and while the deficit is about half of that in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Twins), the Jays would have to first climb over SIX teams before challenging Minnesota for that second wild card spot. Boston's loss was its eighth time in 12 contests and saw the team's lead in the American League East shrink to 2 1/2 games over the Yankees, who just took three of four from the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-8 & 5.23 ERA) will start for Toronto and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5 & 4.40 ERA) for Boston. Estrada has hardly been sharp in his last two starts (nine ERs allowed on 15 hits over 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA) but with the benefit of 21 runs of support, he's won them both to reach 7-8 on the season. He does own 156 strikeouts over 156 1/3 innings but he's also surrendered 26 homers in his 28 starts. Estrada is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 4-6). Rodriguez took the loss in each of his last two starts (allowed five runs in both outings) and is win-less in his last 10 outings with four defeats during that stretch (team is 3-7). Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / teams are 1-5) against Toronto. The pick: Toronto has all but been relegated to playing the spoiler role in September but that's just what the Jays did on Labor Day with 14 hits, including four HRs. Most of Boston’s problems have been on the mound in its current rough patch, as it has surrendered at least five runs in eight of the team's last 12 contests. Anyone truly expect Rodriguez to turn that roaund with his and 10 ERs allowed on 17 hits (three HRs) over 11 2/3 innings of his last two starts (7.71 ERA)? Note that Estrada has faced Boston twice in 2017 and while he's left with two no-decisions, he also owns a 1.74 ERA in those two starts. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The "unbeatable" LA Dodgers suddenly look very 'human,' as Labor Day dawns. The team opens a three-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost eight of its last nine games (lone win came 1-0, in Clayton Kershaw's Sep. 1 return from the DL). The Dodgers opened last week by getting swept in Arizona by these same D'backs, who have now solidified their position atop the National League wild-card standings by winning 10 in a row (73-58 D'backs have opened a 6 1/2-game lead on the Rockies). After scoring 21 runs in a three-game sweep last week, Arizona has evened its season series with LA at 8-8, while outscoring the Dodgers 78-66. The pick: I must admit I'm somewhat leery of Hill but this LA team is just too good to continue struggling. After all, while Arizona checks in at 34-35 on the road in 2017, LA is 52-16 at Dodger Stadium, outscoring opponents 5.13-to-3.09 RPG. Make LA a 10* play. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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09-04-17 | Astros v. Mariners +143 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Hurricane Harvey forced the Astros to move a three-game home series with the Rangers to Tropicana Field, the home of the TB Rays. Houston llsyt the first two games of that series but salavaged the finale, 5-1 on Thursday. The team returned to Houston for a three-game series with the Mets, postponing Friday's first game, then played a Saturday doubleheader and a single game on Sunday. The Astros swept the Mets and will now take a four-game winning streak (as well as the AL's best overall record of 83-53) when they begin a 10-game trek with the first of three games against the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 29 runs on 46 hits during their four-game winning streak. Seattle 'stopped the bleeding' by opening its nine-game homestand with a much-needed three-game sweep of the A's this past weekend. On Labor Day morn, the Mariners are 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the AL’s second wild card spot. The pitching matchup; Dallas Keuchel (11-3 & 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Erasmo Ramirez (5-5 & 4.43 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle. Keuchel struggled in his last start against Texas (at Tropicana Field), allowing six runs on five hits and three walks in six innings of a loss. However, that game followed three straight quality starts. Still, the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner has not been the same pitcher since returning from the disabled list on July 28, going 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in seven starts (Astros are 3-4). He is 6-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts / team is 6-6) versus Seattle. Ramirez takes the mound looking for his fifth straight quality start after permitting two runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss at Baltimore on Tuesday. He has given up only six ERs in 24 innings ( ERA) over his last four starts, yet has earned just one victory. Ramirez is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts / teams are 2-2 ) against Houston. The pick: Seattle isn't going to catch Houston in the American League West race (trail by 14 1/2 games) but the Mariners are still desperately trying to stay in the postseason hunt and the team's three-game sweep of the A's on Sunday pulled them within 2 1/2 games of the Minnesota Twins. Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the break but as noted above, his second half has not measured up. Meanwhile, since being re-acquired by the Mariners in a late-July deal, Ramirez owns a 3.62 ERA in six outings. Each of his past four outings were quality starts and I expect a fifth one here, making Seattle an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs returned from the All Star break to go 14-3, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago did hit a small rough patch right after that but now, even with a Sunday 5-1 loss to the Braves, owns a run of 12 wins in their last 16 games. Chicago opens a four-game series Monday in Pittsburgh with an overall 32-16 since the break and a 3 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh made a little 'noise' for itself right after the All Star break by winning seven of eight (reaching 49-48) but since sitting at 58-58 after play on Aug. 11, has gone 7-14 to sit seven games under .500 at 65-72. Chicago's three-game sweep of Pittsburgh last week at Wrigley Field by a combined 27-5, effectively took the Pirates out of consideration for a shot at the postseason. The Pirates have fallen 10 1/2 games back in the NL Central and are 7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who own the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (14-8 & 3.36 ERA) has easily been Chicago's pitching star since the break and opens this series, opposed by Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl (6-10 & 4.54 ERA). Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA since the break, with eight quality starts in nine outings. He takes the mound having won his last four decisions. Arrieta beat the Pirates 4-1 n his last outing (Sep 29), allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless frames. That leaves him 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 14-6). In contrast to Arrieta, Kuhl has lost two straight starts and three of his last four, failing to get through six innings in any of those four outings. Kuhl lost to the Cubs last time out (opposite Arrieta) and is 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in six career meetings (team is 2-4). The pick: Kuhl and Arrieta opposed each other last Tuesday in Chicago, with each pitching five shutout innings before Chicago scored three in the six of a 4-1 Cubs win. Hard to ignore Arrieta's 1.59 ERA since the break but also note that Kuhl owns a 3.44 ERA over his past 12 starts. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NYY Yankees lost 10-0 at home to the Red Sox on Friday but rebounded with a 5-1 Saturday win. The rubber match of this three-game series is set for Sunday night (on ESPN) and New York needs a win, not only to stay within striking distance of Boston in the AL East (a win and the Yanks will be 3 1/2 back but a loss drops them 5 1/2 back) but the Yankees also need to be very much aware that the Twins are just one game back in the battle for the top wild card spot plus New York is only a modest 2 1/2 games clear of the AL playoff 'cut line.' The Red Sox are heading back to Boston for a nine-game homestand beginning Monday and you know a 5 1/2 game lead would be much sweeter than a 3 1/2 ga.me lead. The pitching matchup: Boston will send ace Chris Sale (15-6 & 2.77 ERA) to the mound in this series finale, as the Yankees counter with Luis Severino (11-6 & 3.14 ERA), who I believe most regard as New York's best starter in 2017. Sale ended a three-start win-less streak with a dominating effort at Toronto this past Tuesday, when he struck out 11 without walking a batter and scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 Boston win. He may be the AL's Cy Young front-runner, as he leads the majors with 264 strikeouts and is 10 away from matching his career high, set with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. Sale owns a 1.69 career ERA against the Yankees but is a modest 4-3, plus his teams are only 5-6 in his 11 all-time starts against the Yanks. Severino is fourth in the AL with 192 strikeouts and struck out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Monday but could not come away with a win. He owns a 1.10 WHIP and .220 BAA in 2017 but the Yanks are a modest 15-11 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$5 (you read that correctly!). Severino is just 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA over six career starts vs. Boston (team is 2-4) and his worst start of the season came at home against Boston on Aug. 12, when he was ripped for 10 runs -- eight earned -- over 4 1/3 innings. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA was ranked 16th in the 2016 preseason poll and opened its season at College Station with a game against unranked Texas A&M. The Aggies came away with a 31-24 upset in OT (the Bruins were favored by 3 1/2 points), a win which jump-started A&M's season. Texas A&M would open 6-0, rising to No. 6 in the AP poll before losing 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama. A&M's season unraveled from there, finishing 8-5 after a 33-28 Texas Bowl loss to Kansas State. UCLA never recovered from its season-opening loss to A&M. Things went from bad to worse when starting QB Josh Rosen suffered shoulder and leg injuries at Arizona State in a 23-20 loss. He never returned to the field of play and UCLA would finish 4-8, its first losing season under Jim More (he had led UCLA to a 37-16 record from 2012-1015). UCLA and Texas A&M meet in a season opener for the second consecutive season on Sunday, this time at the Rose Bowl. Neither team is ranked and both will be looking for strong starts after poor finishes last season (the Aggies lost four of their final five games, while the Bruins dropped six of their last seven). Texas A&M: Former Aggies QB Trevor Knight is now trying to claim a roster spot with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals and the Aggies have yet to name a starting QB as Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel, and Kellen Mond have continued to battle to earn the starting nod. A bigger loss is DE Myles Garrett, who was the NFL's overall No. 1 draft pick in April (Browns). He was a huge part in Rosen being pressure all game last season (Rosen was sacked five times and threw three INTs). Two key offensive performers do return, sophomore RB Trayveon Williams (1,057 yards 6.8 YPC and eight TDs) plus WR Christian Kirk for his junior year. He caught 83 passes last season (nine TDs), after making 80 receptions as a freshman. The defense returns seven starters but obviously can't replace Garrett. UCLA: Naturally, the return of Rosen is a key for the Bruins. Expect him to be eager to play well after last year's injuries preventing him from improving on his 3,670-yard, 23-TD effort as a freshman (he garnered Heisman Trophy conversation at this time last year). A MUST for UCLA will be improving a rushing attack which averaged a pathetic 84.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC to rank 127th in the nation. In Mora's first four years in LA, his Bruin teams had averaged about 194 YPG on the ground.. The pick: It would be easy to say UCLA here, based strictly on the revenge motive. However, Mora replaced some of his top offensive coaches after last year's disappointing campaign but lo and behold, Noel Mazzone (former OC at UCLA) and former backup QB Jerry Neuheisel, are both now employed by A&M. Kevin Sumlin opens his sixth season at A&M and he owns quite a record against non-SEC teams in his tenure, going 18-2 SU. I'll take any points available and make A&M a 10* play. |
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09-03-17 | Blue Jays +119 v. Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles came into their four-game series with the Blue Jays on a seven-game winning streak. That streak was snapped with Toronto's 11-8 win on Thursday. Baltimore did rebound with a 1-0 (13 inn.) victory on Friday but the Baltimore bats remained quiet again on Saturday, as the Orioles fell 7-2. After averaging 6.03 RPG in August, Baltimore has totaled just three in the first two games of September and are now 2 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot. With Saturday's win, the Blue Jays have put themselves in a position to snap a streak of four straight losing series. Toronto has fallen 8 1/2 games back in the wild card race and its playoff hopes have been all but dashed, as they have SIX teams between themselves and the Twins! The pitching matchup: Brett Anderson (2-3 & 6.83 ERA) will be back on the mound for Toronto on Sunday, after making his Toronto debut this past Tuesday. Taking the mound for Baltimore will be the struggling Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.91 ERA). Anderson began the season with the Chicago Cubs before being waived on August 1, after which he was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto. He was a tough-luck loser against the Red Sox, allowing just one run on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in losing 3-0 to Boston and Chris Sale. Anderson is seeing Baltimore for the first time since 2010 (while with Oakland), in what has been his lone career appearance against the Orioles. Tillman allowed six runs over 5 1/3 innings to Seattle on Monday (lucky to get a no-decision), although Baltimore won 7-6. That outing means he'll take the mound this afternoon still searching for his first win since May 7 (he's 0- 7 and the team 5-11 in those 16 starts). He had a quality start against the Blue Jays back on May 19, but did not factor in the decision while allowing three runs in six innings. In his career, he's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA against Toronto, with the Orioles going 11-15. The pick: Sure, the Blue Jays are all but out of wild card consideration and it's difficult to be too confident in Anderson but how can one back Tillman. He as not won since his first start of the year (back on May 7) plus owns a 1.95 WHIP and .332 BAA to go along with his 7.91 ERA. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | A's v. Mariners -132 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jharel Cotton (7-10 & 5.40 ERA) starts for Oakland and Yovani Gallardo (5-10 & 5.78 ERA) for Seattle. Cotton allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win at Houston back on Aug. 20 and then limited Texas to two runs (one earned) while matching a career high with nine strikeouts en route to an 8-3 victory seven days later. Cotton now looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his major-league. This rookie has faced the Mariners at home twice this season, giving up two runs in a 4-3 win on April 22 before getting tagged for six runs and eight hits, including three HRs, in a 6-3 loss on Aug. 9. The Mariners had hoped that Gallardo would find some of his past 'magic' (he won 72 games for Milwaukee from 2009-13) here in Seattle but that has not been the case. Gallardo's 'ugly' August (0-3 with a 7.46 ERA in five starts / team was 1-4), leaves him with just FIVE win in starts, as21 well as a 1.50 WHIP and .270 BAA to go along with a 5.78 ERA on the season (25 appearances). The pick: OK, one can say that Gallardo can't be trusted. However, while he entered the 2017 season with an 0-5 career record against Oakland, he is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in four starts (Seattle is 3-1) against them this year. Seattle's wild-card chances are on the verge of vanishing and the Mariners know that a sweep here against Oakland is a priority. The A's have lost each of the first four contests on their current six-game road trip to fall to 21-45 away from home on the season, while getting outscored 5.27-to-3.86 RPG. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -135 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: It's safe to say that Saturday's showdown between preseason No. 3 Florida State and No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta (at Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium) is the marquee matchup of the opening week of CFB 2017. To say the least, this is a special game, as it marks just the fourth-ever opener all-time of top-five opponents and the first-ever between top-three opponents. Alabama lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second TD in the College Football Playoff title game last January, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season and a second straight national championship. The Florida State Seminoles finished 10-3 last season, capped by an impressive 33-32 victory over Michigan in the Orange Bowl as a seven-point TD.
Florida State: The Seminoles will not have RB Dalvin Cook, who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. However, QB Deondre Francois is back, after throwing for 3,350 yards and 20 TDs as a red-shirt freshman. Replacing Cook (FSU's all-time leading rusher) will not be easy but junior Jacques Patrick and freshman Cam Akers are talented. However, the OL needs to improve over last year’s bunch is FSU wants to be in the national title discussion. FSU's defense allowed 25.0 PPG last season, just the second time in the last seven years that an FSU defense had allowed more than 20 points. The good news is that nine regulars return on defense plus will have star safety Derwin James back at full strength after he played just two games in 2016 because of a knee injury. Alabama: The superlatives are endless when discussing the Crimson Tide, as Saban's team seeks its fifth national title in nine seasons. Alabama lost 11 players to the NFL draft. Jalen Hurts returns and is the first Tide QB to return since AJ McCarron in 2013. He accounted for 36 TDs last season, passing for 2,780 yards and rushing for 954. RBs Damien Harris (1,007 yards) and Bo Scarbrough (954 yards) both return but TE Howard and WR Stewart are both gone. The OL figures to be just as good in 2017. Sure the defense has lost seven starters to the NFL Draft (three in the first round) but no one doubts that the Tide will once again feature one of the nation's best defense units. The pick: The College Football Playoff will be decided this season in Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium and it seems only fitting that the first college game at the $1.5 billion replacement for the Georgia Dome will likely help determine who is playing on Jan. 8. I won't ignore the fact that Alabama has won by 10 points or more in 40 of its last 45 regular season games but....These are the two winningest college programs since 2010 and FSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons. Make FSU an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue UNDER 68 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals, ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, will open the 2017 season against the Purdue Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm. The game will be played at at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), the home of the Colts. It's only fitting that Brohm's first game as Purdue's head coach comes against his alma mater, where he was Louisville's starting QB for two seasons in the early 1990s. Louisville: Bobby Petrino can coach (forget about the off-field stuff) and his Cardinals were 9-1 through 10 games last season (lone loss at Clemson by six points) and ranked No. 3, before imploding. However, a 36-10 loss at Houston was followed by an embarrassing 41-38 loss at home to Kentucky (as a nearly four-TD favorite) to end the regular season. Louisville was then man-handled by LSU, 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. However, the team's late-season collapse didn't prevent QB Lamar Jackson from winning the Heisman (it shouldn't have). Jackson passed for 3,543 yards and 30 TDs last year while rushing for 1,571 yards and another 21 scores! Jackson lost a few key contributors but he's so talented, don't expect too much of a drop-off in 2017. That said, don't expect a second straight Heisman, either. Purdue. Brohm come to Purdue from Western Ky, where he turned the the Hilltoppers into the nation's highest-scoring team at 45.5 PPG in 2016. David Blough is Purdue's returning starter at QB but Brohm says he likes three of his QBs and would not be afraid to use all of them with Blough struggling with a sore shoulder (he suffered a strained right shoulder during an August 12 scrimmage). To be competitive, Purdue needs to score, as its defense ranked 117th in the nation last year, allowing 38.3 PPG. The pick: Brohm was an asistant at Western Ky when Petrino was hired as the Hilltoppers head coach. Petrino has said he is thrilled that Brohm landed a Power-5 conference coaching position. He expects his former assistant will turn around a Purdue program that has gone just 9-39 the past four seasons with only three victories in Big Ten conference play. However, that may be wishful thinking right now. Louisville has the best QB on the field (in the country?) but did lose a lot of key players, including most of the offensive line. It may take Louisville a few games to jell. The Boilermakers have lost nine of their last 10 non-home games and are a near-4 TD underdog here, so expect a loss. However, don't expect Petrino to run up the score and thisov er/under number is too high. Make Louisville/Purdue a 10* Under play. |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two CFB superpowers open Saturday in this game at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, Texas, with No. 11 Michigan taking on No. 17 Florida. This marks the first time these two legendary programs have met in regular season, although Michigan has won all three bowl meetings, including a 41-7 beat-down of an injury-riddled Florida offense in the Citrus Bowl following the 2015 season. Michigan: Jim Harbaugh took over Michigan in 2015, inheriting a team which was just 5-7 the previous year. His first team went 10-3, including that previously-mentioned bowl win over Florida and then last year's team again went 10-3. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. Michigan opened 9-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the nation when it lost 14-13 at Iowa. An unimpressive 20-10 win over Indiana followed and then Michigan lost a controversial double-OT at Columbus to Ohio State, 30-27. The Wolverines capped its season with a 33-32 loss to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Harbaugh's an intense coach and will be looking to quickly establish his team after last year's poor finish (three losses in its last four games). Harbaugh can easily rub people the wrong way. He refused to release his team's playing roster until Wednesday, declined to formally announce his quarterback and then went overboard by insinuating Florida coach Jim McElwain was the one playing games by initially not revealing his team's signal-caller. Harbaugh can play all the "head games" he wants but he needs to replace 10 starters off last year unit, which was one of the nation's best (allowed 14.1 PPG on just over 262 yards per). I'm still not quite sure who will be Michigan's starting QB for most of this year. Florida: Jim McElwain begins his third season with the Gators, after going 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016. He is dealing with two key issues in this contest. The big story is the suspension of seven players, including 2016 leading receiver and special teams stud Antonio Callaway (54 catches and 721 receiving yards with four TDs in 2016) and defensive lineman Keivonnis Davis, for misuse of school funds. The other question mark is who will start under center. RS freshman Feleipe Franks started the spring game for the Gators and played well enough to be considered for the starting job, while Luke Del Rio is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and then there’s the wild card in Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. In the end, McElwain named Franks as the starter on Wednesday. Franks threw for 2,766 yards and 35 TDs during his senior season at Wakulla High School in Crawfordville, Fla. The defense took a big on hit, with only five starters returning from last season and don't expect the Gators to match last year's numbers of 16.8 PPG on about 293 YPG. The pick: I'm no fan of either of Michigan's two QBs, Wilton Speight or John O’Korn and I believe Michigan's preseason ranking of No. 11 is based more on Harbuagh's notoriety. After all, Michigan had a school-record 11 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, meaning there are many new faces in new roles all over the field. Let me add that Florida has won 27 consecutive season openers, the best streak in the nation. The Gators will likely remember that recent Citrus Bowl loss to the Wolverines but after careful consideration I prefer to make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | Los Angeles Dodgers - Game #1 -137 v. San Diego Padres - Game #1 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -137 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Clayton Kershaw returned just in time for the Dodgers, as MLB's best pitcher allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings to lead LA to a 1-0 win in his first appearance since July 23 (due to a back injury). Kershaw upped his record to 16-2 and lowered his ERA to 1.95, while the Dodgers are now 20-2 and plus-$1560 in his 2017 starts. LA pitchers combined for 13 strikeouts in halting the team's five-game losing streak. The Padres lost for the fifth time in seven games and enter Saturday's doubleheader with LA at 59-75 on the season, 33 1/2 games back in the NL West. The pitching matchup; Brock Stewart (0-0 & 3.38 ERA) will take the mound for LA in Game 1 of the doubleheader, opposed by San Diego's Clayton Richard (6-13 & 4.96 ERA). Stewart will be making his fourth start of the season (ninth of his career). He didn't fare well in his last outing and was fortunate to walk away with a no-decision as Pittsburgh reached him for five runs on four hits in just two-plus innings (LA won 8-5). Stewart worked two hit-less innings of relief against the Padres on July 1 and has given up one hit in three career innings versus San Diego (no starts). Richard lost to Miami in his last outing, as he allowed five runs on eight hits over seven innings. Richard owns just one win over his last 13 starts (he's 1-6 and San Diego is 4-9). The 33-year-old lefty is 7-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 23 career appearances (21 starts / teams are 13-8) against the Dodgers. The pick: LA was able to win last night despite scoring just one run. The Dodgers will surely need more runs to win here but with Richard owning a 5.79 ERA in four outings vs. LA in 2017, why shouldn't they score? The Dodgers have not had much trouble against the Padres in 2017, as they are 10-3 against San Diego this season, including a 5-1 record at Petco Park. Make LA an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State v. Illinois -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 116 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ball State Cardinals will visit Memorial Stadium in Champaign-Urbana to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois in Saturday college football action. The Illini are coming off a 3-9 season and last finished with a winning year back in 2011 (7-6). Ball State is off a 4-8 season and has won just 12 combined games the last three seasons, after going to back-to-back bowl games in 2012 (10-3) and 2013 (9-4). The two schools have met just once before, back in 2007 with Illinois winning 28-17 at home. Ball State: The Cardinals return eight starters, although Jack Milas is replacing Riley Neal as the starting QB. Milas has 314 career pass attempts but the bulk of those reps came during the 2014 season, as he attempted only 38 passes in 2016 ((Neal attempted 394 in 2016 but had just 13 TDs and 12 INTs). While Milas gets back in the swing of things, he can rely on RB James Gilbert, who had 1,220 yards last season (5.3 YPC) and 12 TDs. The defense has just four returning starters but maybe that's a good thing, after allowing 35.8 and 30.1 PPG the last two seasons. Illinois: Lovie's Smith first season at Illinois hardly went well, as the Illini were 3-9 (5-7 ATS) and just 2-7 in Big Ten play. There was a QB 'battle' in the spring and Smith has named inexperienced junior Chayce Crouch the starting QB. This year's offense can't be as bad as last year's, which averaged a woeful 19.7 PPG, getting held to 10 or less points four times last year. Crouch is more of a dual-threat and RB Kendrick Foster returns after rushing for 720 yards (5.7 YPC) and seven TDs. More will be expected from WRs Malik Turner and Sam Mays (especially Turner, who caught 46 balls with six TDs). Lovie must improve his defense, as the team allowed 31.9 PPG in Smith's first season, more than a TD higher than the 2015 unit did (23.9). The pick: This line opened has high as minus-11 in some places but it's down to about a TD as of Friday afternoon. Not sure what the attraction of Ball State is, as the Cardinals are on a 3-18 SU run in true road openers. What's more, Ball State is 3-26-1 SU vs. current Big Ten teams with all three of those wins coming against Indiana (how the little school from Muncie, Indian has loved upsetting the boys from Bloomington!). Meanwhile, Lovie needs a win here, as high-scoring and dangerous Western Ky is up next, before a road game at ranked USF. Note that Indiana has won 19 straight home openers and the average margin of victory has been almost four TDs (26 points)! Ball State is a team the Illini can handle. Make Illinois an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Cardinals v. Giants +102 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals came to the Bay Area for a four-game series with the sad-sack Giants, hoping to revive their playoff hopes. So far, so good. Thursday’s 5-2 victory keeps the Cards six games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and they gained a half-game on the idle Colorado Rockies (now five back) for the second wild-card spot. The NL West cellar-dwelling Giants have now lost nine of their last 12 games (are 53-83) and along with being 40 games back of the Dodgers in the division, own MLB's worst moneyline mark (minus-$3549), as well. The pitching matchup: Jack Flaherty will make his MLB debut for the Cards and will square off against Johnny Cueto (6-7 & 4.59 ERA), who will make his first start since mid-July after battling blister issues and a strained flexor tendon. The Cardinals are calling up Flaherty to take the place of Mike Leake, who was traded to Seattle on Wednesday. He has split time between Double- and Triple-A this season, posting a 2.18 ERA with 147 strikeouts and 35 walks in 25 starts covering 148 2/3 innings. Cueto struggled in a minor-league rehab outing for Class-A San Jose last Sunday, allowing eight runs (five earned) and nine hits over 3 2/3 innings. He' seen plenty of St. Louis in his career, going 7-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 22 career starts against the Cards. The pick: This is no easy spot for the 21-year-old Flaherty. He not only makes his major league debut in the heat of a playoff race but he will also be the youngest Cardinals pitcher to start in his first game since Rick Ankiel debuted as a 20-year-old in 1999. He doesn't turn 22 until Oct. 15 and will be the 14th-youngest Cardinal ever to appear in a major league game. His opponent is Cueto, a 10-year veteran who landed in the majors back in 2008 as a 22-year-old. Like all San Francisco pitchers, it's been a disappointing 2017 for Cueto as well but here's a guy who has made 227 career starts and owns 120 wins. This is first start against the Cards in 2017 but he was 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two outings against them last season. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Huskies will make the long cross-country trip to the East Coast on Friday night, where they will take on Rutgers in New Brunswick. Chris Peterson 'hit gold' in his third season at Seattle, leading the Huskies into the CFP, before they lost 24-7 to Alabama. Washington would finish 12-2 and has opened the 2017 season ranked No. 8 in the AP's preseason poll. Chris Ash, a key assistant under Urban Meyer at Ohio State, knew taking the Rutgers job wouldn’t be a 'walk in the park' but it's doubtful he anticipated the bottom falling out to the extent it did last season. Rutgers 2016 season opened with a 48-13 loss at Washington (Huskies led 48-3 into the fourth quarter) and after two home wins over Howard and New Mexico, Rutgers would go on to lose all nine games in Big Ten play to finish 2-10. I'm not sure Ash and Rutgers are all too happy to see Washington again, in the team's 2017 opener, even if it is in New Brunswick. Washington: The Huskies' defense allowed just 17.7 PPG in 2016 (on 316.1 YPG) but lost five starters to the NFL. CBs Kevin King (Packers) and Sidney Jones (Eagles) plus S Budda Baker (Cardinals) all went in the top-43. Clearly, the Husky secondary needs some rebuilding. Washington also lost speedy WR John Ross (81 catches and 17 TDs), as he was chosen ninth overall by the Bengals. However, the Huskies are still deep in proven play-makers. That starts will QB Jake Browning, who threw for 3430 yards with 43 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, helping the Huskies roll up a school-record 585 points (41.8 PPG on 456.9 YPG). RB Gaskin is off back-to-back 1300-yard rushing seasons. Ross is gone at WR but Dante Pettis and Chico McClatcher will keep Rutgers' secondary busy. Pettis is also an outstanding kick-returner, who has five career punt return TDs, one off the Pac-12 record held by California's DeSean Jackson. Rutgers: Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new OC at Rutgers and he gets a new QB in Louisville graduate Kyle Bolin and word is, he's fitting in well. Dangerous WR/KR Janarion Grant is back after missing the last eight games of last season with an ankle injury (when he went down, the Rutgers offense went 'south!'). Rutgers also owns a deep stable of RBs, the best of whom is Robert Martin. The defense was often over-matched last season (allowed 37.5 PPG and just over 450 YPG) but eight starters do return. With Kill on board to take over the offense, Ash (a DC under Meyer), will devote most of his energy on that defense. The pick: It should be noted that Rutgers' defense suffered as a result of the team's offensive ineptitude last season, being forced to stay on the field far too long and in terrible field position. With a much better QB situation and the return of play-maker Grant, that should change in 2017. Can it change enough to compete with a team like Washington? If the question is, will there be an upset, the answer is no. However, while Rutgers has virtually no chance of winning, staying within this HUGE number is more than realistic. Make Rutgers a 10* play. |
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09-01-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 -162 v. Detroit Tigers - Game #2 | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians swept a doubleheader at the New York Yankees on Wednesday and the AL Central leaders (Indians are up 6 1/2 games on the Twins) will try to pull the same trick on Friday, when they open a four-game series at the Detroit Tigers with a split doubleheader. Cleveland did not negatively impacting its pitching rotation on Wednesday and the Indians own the AL's lowest team ERA (3.57), as well as its lowest bullpen ERA (3.01). The big news out of Detroit on Thursday was that the Tigers traded 13-year vet Justin Verlander (former AL MVP and Cy Young winner) to the Houston Astros. Detroit opens this series 58-74 (the AL's third-worst record), a whopping 18 games back of the Indians, who by the way, have crept to within 3 1/2 games of the Houston Astros for the AL's best record (Astros could use Verlander to hold off the Indians). The pitching matchup: It looks like Mike Clevinger (7-5 & 3.72 ERA) and Buck Farmer (3-1 & 6.17 ERA) for Detroit in Friday's nightcap. Clevinger is coming off a strong outing against Kansas City on Saturday, in which he scattered four hits over six scoreless innings and matched a season high with nine strikeouts in a 4-0 win. Clevinger has pitched well for Cleveland in 2017, and enters having allowed one or no earned runs in SIX of his last 11 appearances. Two of those outings came in back-to-back starts against Detroit on July 2 and 8, during which Clevinger yielded a total of one run on five hits in 12 innings (0.75 ERA), picking up victories in each. He's 2-1 with a 3.86 in three career starts vs. Detroit. Farmer is in his second stint with the Tigers this season and earned a win at the Chicago White Sox after being recalled on Saturday, allowing three runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 Detroit victory. He's in his fourth season of bouncing back and forth between Detroit and Triple-A. He is 6-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 21 starts for the Triple-A Toledo in 2017 but he owns a 6.17 ERA in five big league starts this season. The pick: It won't inspire confidence in Farmer considering he's seeing Cleveland for the first time this season and is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in four career appearances - two starts (both losses) - against this division rival. The Indians are 40-27 on the road in 2017 and if Carrasco "takes care of business" in Game 1, I expect the Indians to earn a second straight doubleheader sweep. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Mike Foltynewicz (10-10 & 4.84 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta up against the veteran John Lackey (10-10 & 4.98 ERA). Foltynewicz has been a nice surprise for the Braves in 2017 (more later), although he does limp in on a four-start losing streak. Foltynewicz has faced the Cubs just once, back in August of 2015, and it wasn't pretty. He was pounded for seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings at Chicago. Lackey returned from the break to go 5-0 in his first six starts (Cubs were 6-0) but he has struggled badly in his last two outings, allowing 10 ERs on 15 hits in just 10 innings (that's a 9.00 ERA). Lackey improved to 2-1 in five career starts (his teams are3-2) against the Braves on July 18, when he gave up one run on five hits in five innings at Atlanta. The pick: Lackey's last two outings have both been on the road, so he's hoping a return to Wrigley (he's allowed three runs or less in his last four home starts) will help him turn things around. He may, but I "have a feeling" with Foltynewicz. As noted above, he's on a four-start win-less streak but after allowing 20 runs on 25 hits and nine walks over 11 2/3 innings of three consecutive starts, he showed signs of breaking out of his funk Sunday, when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings in a 3-0 setback against Colorado. Foltynewicz has been "under the radar" all season, with Atlanta going 13-12 in his starts, giving him a plus-$495 moneyline mark which ranks 23rd among all starters. Take Atlanta and the 1 1/2 runs for an 8* play |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This Week 4 game at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland features a game between the Seahawks and Raiders. Both were playoff teams in 2016, with Seattle going 10-5-1 in winning the NFC West. Seattle beat Detroit in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs but then lost to the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round. The Raiders finished 12-4, giving them a second-place finish in the AFC West (ending a 13-year playoff drought) but with QB Derek Carr sidelined, they lost in the Wild Card Game to the Texans. However, as both teams wrap up their respective preseasons, the Seahawks are 3-0 SU & ATS, while the Raiders are 0-3 & 0-3 ATS. Seattle: The Seahawks have beaten the Chargers 48-17, the Vikings 20-13 and the Chiefs 26-13. QB Russell Wilson was sharp the last two weeks and went 13-of-19 for 200 yards and a TD against KC. Seattle has looked impressive in the preseason due in no small part to its deep group of players. The Seahawks escaped Week 3 with no new injuries. Oakland: It's been a lost preseason for the Raiders, as they've lost 20-10 to the Cardinals, 24-21 to the Rams and 24-20 the Cowboys 24-20. Against Dallas, QB Derek Carr got a nice workout, going 13-of-17 for 144 yards with two TDs. The pick: As the teams' respective record reveal, Oakland doesn’t care much about winning preseason games, while Pete Carroll tends to treat every game like a playoff game. Most of the starters will be sitting out Game 4 but I expect many of the backups going all out, in extended action. The over/under is way too low here, with Seattle averaging 31.3 PPG this preseason. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-31-17 | Ravens v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens are one of four NFL teams looking to complete a perfect 4-0 preseason, as they head to New Orleans off a 13-9 home win over Buffalo in Week 3 win that gave them a 3-0 SU & ATS record. The Saints are 2-1 SU & ATS, after a 13-0 home win over Houston last Saturday. Both teams are hoping to return to the playoffs in 2017, after going 8-8 (Baltimore) and 7-9 (New Orleans) in 2016. Baltimore: The Ravens are 3-0 despite the fact that Joe Flacco has not taken a snap in the preseason. Ryan Mallett led the team with 58 yards on 8 of 10 passing while Josh Woodrum completed 8 of his 13 pass attempts for 55 yards and a TD in last week's win. Flacco is dealing with a back injury and he and the rest of the starters will sit this one out. Backup QB Ryan Mallett and third-stringer Josh Woodrum will continue to handle duties under center on Thursday. New Orleans: Chase Daniel led the Saints with 108 yards on 9 of 12 passing while Drew Brees completed 11 of 15 for 76 yards in last week's win. It should be noted that with Drew Brees at the helm, New Orleans managed to score only three points while gaining 124 yards against Texans. The pick: In a rare twist, the Saints may actually play some starters in their fourth and final preseason contest. After all, RBs Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson have not taken the field yet and the offense looked flat in last Saturday’s date with Houston. With that in mind, I'm making the Saints a 10* play. |
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08-31-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are 2-1 SU & ATS this preseason and play their final game Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers (also 2-1 SU & ATS). The Steelers advanced to last year's AFC championship game before losing to the Pats, while Carolina followed a 15-1 regular season and Super Bowl appearance in 2015, by laying an egg in 2016 with a 6-10 record. Pittsburgh: Most of Pittsburgh's starters will be rested in an effort to be ready for the team's regular season Week 1 visit to Cleveland (note: Browns are a surprising 3-0 this preseason) but that's not much of a change, considering the Steelers haven’t played their starters much anyway this preseason. Big Ben's backup, Landry Jones, is coming off a game in which he completed 21 of 31 passes and he’ll get majority of the snaps again, with rookie Joshua Dobbs (Tenn.) playing in the fourth quarter Carolina: Cam Newton didn't play all that much last week but the team seems convinced that he is ready to go. However, seeing some good production from backups Derek Anderson and Joe Webb would be a nice 'safety blanket.' Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey has had his moments this preseason and expect him to be a significant contributor to Carolina's offense in 2017. A bigger key could be the fact that Carolina’s patched up offensive line looks to be coming together. The pick: Carolina may go off as the biggest favorite here in Week 4 and I ask why? Pittsburgh has allowed just 14.7 PPG this preseason and Landry and Dobbs are a better QB duo in this contest than Anderson and Webb. Pittsburgh is the deeper team and that makes them an 8* play plus the points in this game. |
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +28 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 1729 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Bulls kick off their 2017 season with a road trip to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Head coach HC Lance Leipold led the Bulls to a 5-7 season in his first year at the school but the Bulls clearly regressed in 2016, falling to 2-10, which included a season-opening home loss to Albany (as a three-TD favorite!). It would seem that there is no way to go but up in 2017. Minnesota has been to five consecutive bowl games, after back-to-back 3-9 seasons in 2010 and 2011. P.J. Fleck, who worked a minor miracle at Western Michigan, represents a 180-degree turn from previous “old school” coaches Tracy Claeys and Jerry Kill in Minneapolis. Fleck now moves to a bigger stage with his “row the boat” attitude. Buffalo: Buffalo was terrible on both sides of the ball last season, ranking 126th in averaging 16.5 PPG, while allowing and 32.0 PPG. The good news is, 14 starters return (plus both kickers) but the Bulls do have a long way to go. QB Tyree Jackson returns and at 6-7, 245-lbs, he can be an imposing presence. It sure will help that four OL starters are also back. Eight starters return from LY's pourus defense. Is it a "glass half full" outlook or, “same-old, same-old?” Minnesota: Fleck used his ingenuity on the field and his youthful enthusiasm on the recruiting trail to raise the Broncos to new heights. As noted, Minnesota's been to five straight bowl games and last year's nine wins marks the second-most wins in a season since the school entered the Big 10 back in 1953 (the 2003 team went 10-3). This is NOT a "re-build." The first hurdle for Fleck will be finding an answer at QB. Will it be RS senior Conor Rhoda for one season, 6-5 RS soph QB Demry Croft, or juco Neil McLaurin for a few seasons, or one of five freshmen QBs for down the road? RBs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks combined for 1808 rushing yards and 21 TDs last season, the top two TEs are back and the left side of the OL is a wall with T Donnell Greene and G Garrison Wright. The Gophers ranked 22nd in points allowed (22.1 per) in 2016 but just five starers return. The key returnees are LBs Jonathan Celestin (2nd with 80 tackles LY) and Blake Cashman (led the team with 7½ sacks), plus safeties Duke McGhee and Antoine Winfield Jr. The pick: I'll note that Buffalo is on a 2-17 SU run in road openers, with seven straight losses by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, please note that the line is this contest opened with Buffalo about a four-TD favorite. Sure, Minnesota was 6-1 SU last season at home but note that the Gophers were 0-5 ATS as a home favorite against FBS opponents in 2016. Take those 'monster' points and make Buffalo a 10* play. |
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08-31-17 | White Sox v. Twins -153 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost more games (103) than any team in MLB in 2016 but spent most of the first half of the 2017 season battling for first place in the AL Central. However, when Minnesota lost 4-1 on August 4 to the Texas Rangers, the Twins owned a 51-55 on the season and found themselves looking up in the American League standings at Texas and nine other teams! No one was surprised that Minnesota traded left-handed starter Jaime Garcia and All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler, as the playoffs appeared to be a long shot. As the saying goes, "That was then and this is now!" Minnesota is on a current 18-8 run and owns the second wild-card spot in the American League. In fact, the Twins are just one game behind the NY Yankees for the first wild card after beating Chicago 11-1 on Wednesday and head into Thursday afternoon's game with a chance to sweep the Chicago White Sox, who by the way, own the AL's worst record at 52-79 The pitching matchup: Miguel Gonzalez (7-10 & 4.30 ERA) goes for the White Sox and Bartolo Colon (6-10 & 6.35 ERA) for the Twins. Gonzalez has suddenly pitched much better since coming off the disabled list with AC joint inflammation in his right shoulder. He owns a 2.93 ERA in his eight starts since, including going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last four starts (team is 3-1). Gonzalez is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins. Colon was a 'nightmare' for Atlanta (2-8 with an 8.18 ERA) but has been much better with Minnesota (4-2 with a 4.04 ERA). In fact, he's won four of his last five starts, posting a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts. He is 11-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 23 career starts against the White Sox (teams are 12-11). The pick: "My speed is not there anymore, so it makes sense that I don't strike out as many hitters as I used to. I'd much rather get an easy out than throw three strikes," Colon told the Minneapolis Star Tribune after his zero-strikeout game. "If they come, they come. But if they don't, that's fine too." The truth is, Colon is now pitching the way the Braves expected him to pitch when they signed him in the off-season. The Twins took a chance on him after atlanta released him (for good reason) and the twins have to be pleasantly surprised. The White Sox are a dreadful 22-45 away from home, so make the Twins an 8* play. |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels will wrap up a 10-game homestand looking for a three-game sweep of the A's. LA was 2-5 after the Rangers and Astros visited Anaheim but can now The pitching matchup: Kendall Graveman (4-4 & 4.24 ERA) goes for Oakland and Parker Bridwell (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for LA. Graveman was on the DL for two-plus months and his return on Aug. 2 was a disatser. He allowed seven ERs in juts two innings of an 11-2 loss at San Francisco. A no-decision followed but he's won two of his last three, allowing just five ERs over 20 innings (2.25 ERA). Graveman is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Angels (team is 5-4). Bridwell just continues to impress. He did suffer his first loss in nine starts this past Friday but allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings against Houston in a 2-1 loss. He has yielded fewer than three ERs in four consecutive starts and in 10 of his last 12 while issuing more than one walk only once in his last eight outings. The Angels are 11-2 in Bridwell's 13 starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1232). He will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Graveman has pitched well his last three and Bridwell has been just terrific, since joining the rotation back on May 30. The Under is an 8* play. |
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08-30-17 | Rangers v. Astros -187 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -187 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (7-9 & 3.44 ERA) will take the mound for Texas and Dallas Keuchel (11-2 & 2.58 ERA) for Houston. Cashner is win-less in his last three starts (he's 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA / team is 1-2) but had won four of five prior to his current drought. Cashner has 'laid an egg' against Houston this season, losing all four of his starts. He's 0-5 lifeftime (4.21 ERA) in six starts (teams are 1-5). Keuchel has bounced back nicely from a road loss to the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 8 in which he was battered for eight runs on 10 hits and three walks over four innings. He's now 2-0 (team is 2-1) while allowing just three ERs over 20 2/3 innings (1.31 ERA) in three outings since. Keuchel is just 7-7 with a 3.90 ERA in 20 career starts versus the Texas (team is 10-10). The pick: Keuchel bested Cashner and the Rangers back on Aug. 13, when he gave up one run and six hits in 6 2/3 frames of a 2-1 vctory. Keuchel also scattered three hits over six scoreless innings of a 7-1 win at Texas on June 2. As for Cashner, while he pitched well in losing to Houston on Aug. 13, he's also lost his other three starts against the Astros in 2017, allowing 12 ERs over a modest 16 innings (6.75 ERA). Make Houston a 6* play. |
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08-30-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -108 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox got swept at home over the weekend by the Orioles but have rebounded to take the first two of a four-game series in Toronto, Monday and Tuesday. 6-5 and 3-0 wins have ended a four-game slide and allowed Boston to open a four-game lead over the NY Yankees atop the AL East. Toronto's playoff hopes are all but gone now, as the Blue Jays have lost three in a row and nine of 11 to fall 10 games under .500 at 61-71, leaving them 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot, as well as having to climb over seven teams. The pitching matchup: A pair of 20-game winners from 2016 square off in this one, although the phrase "what a difference a year makes," is surely applicable. Rick Porcello (8-15 & 4.57 ERA) starts for Boston and J.A. Happ (6-10 & 4.10 ERA) for Toronto. Porcello led the major leagues in victories with 22 in 2016, while winning the AL's Cy Young award. Boston was 25-8 in all of his starts, giving him MLB's third-best moneyline mark at plus-$1470. However, he takes the mound tonight looking to avoid his major league-worst 16th loss. He owns just eight wins and Boston is 12-15 in his starts, giving him MLB's sixth-worst moneyline mark (minus-$816). Porcello is 7-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 career starts against Toronto (teams are 8-9). Happ opened with a three-start winning streak (permitting one run in each) but he has been pounded in his last two outings. In losses to Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs, he's allowed 10 ERs on 17 hits in just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). Happ is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 8-5). The pick: Porcello was ripped in his last outing (10 runs on 11 hits, although only four runs were earned) and I just don't trust him. Happ was unbeaten in three starts against Boston last year (he was 2-0 and Toronto 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA) and in one start against them in 2017, allowed two ERs over five innings of a no-decision. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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08-29-17 | A's v. Angels -153 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels were without Mike Trout (stiff neck) but came away with a 3-1 victory over the A's on Monday, which allowed them to climb within one game of Minnesota for the second wild card in the American League. Trout is expected back in the lineup Tuesday and although he's stuck in an 0-for-17 slump, his 24 HRs against Oakland is his highest total against any opponent. The A's had only four hits in the loss, while falling to 21-42 away from home on the season. Oakland's 58-73 record leaves them better than only the 57-73 Tigers and 52-77 White Sox in the American League. The pitching matchup: Chris Smith (0-3 & 5.56 ERA) steps to the mound for Oakland and Troy Scribner (2-1 & 4.00 ERA) for LA. Smith has made eight appearances (seven starts) in 2017 and remains in search of his first win of the season. He lost 7-3 in Baltimore on Aug. 21, allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits over 4 1/3 innings in his shortest start of the year. Smith has made two career relief appearances against the Angels, allowing two hits with four walks and five strikeouts in 3 1/3 scoreless innings. Scribner will be making his fourth consecutive start of 2017, after beginning his major-league career with a pair of relief outings. He suffered his first loss on Thursday (3-0), when he gave up three runs on three hits in five innings against Texas. Scribner escaped with a no-decision in his first career turn versus Oakland on Aug. 4 after yielding five runs but just two earned on two hits and four walks over four innings (Angels won 8-6). The pick: The A's are (as noted above) a poor road team and Smith finds himself starting in 2017, after entering this season having come out of the bullpen in all of his previous 63 major-league-appearances. Scribner has been solid in his last two starts (3.60 ERA) and another similar effort should be more than enough for the Angels to pick up a much-needed win. If LA is to stay in the wild card race, the Angels will have to beat teams like Oakland on their home field. Make the Angels a 10* play. |
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08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona D'backs host the LA Dodgers in a three-game series beginning tonight and although Arizona boasts the NL's third-best overall record at 73-58 (including an excellent 42-23 home mark), the Dodgers are so far ahead of them in the NL West (91-39, giving them a 19-game lead!), that this is not much of a "showdown series." However, while the Dodgers have pretty much 'lapped' all MLB teams in 2017, the D'backs could sure use a series win, as they are fighting to hold on to their playoff position. Arizona currently owns the NL's No. 1 wild card spot, two games clear of the Rockies. The D'backs should also be aware that the Brewers are three games back of the Rockies, meaning that the D'backs are five games inside the NL playoff 'cut line.' That's a nice lead with 31 games left to play but surely not one which is completely 'safe.' The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-5 & 3.32 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Zack Godley (5-7 & 3.15 ERA) for Arizona. Hill entered his last start 5-0 over his previous eight (Dodgers were 7-1) and took a perfect game into the ninth inning at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. An error ruined his perfect game in the 9th and then a walk-off HR ended the no-hitter in the 10th! Hill is just 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA against the D'backs in eight career starts (teams are 2-6) but he did toss seven innings of one-run ball against them on July 6 (he got a no-decision in a 5-4 LA win). Godley lost his third straight start by giving up three runs over five innings at the New York Mets on Wednesday (D'backs lost 4-2), an outing which followed a 10-strikeout performance in a 10-3 loss at Minnesota The pick: Note that Godley has allowed three ERs or less in five of his last six starts, with the under going 4-0-1 in those five sold efforts. Also, he owns a pair of solid starts against the Dodgers this season, giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings on July 5 and tossing 6 2/3 innings of three-run ball on Aug. 8. As for Hill, his recent numbers speak loud and clear. He's made nine starts since July 1, allowing 14 ERs on 37 hits over 56 innings, giving him a 2.25 ERA plus a 72-11 KW ratio. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-29-17 | Mets v. Reds -157 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The Mets have lost 11 of their last 15 and with a 57-73 record on the season, are just "playing out the string." However, as they take the field tonight in the opener of a three-game series with the Reds, they may just find some solace (and hope) in the fact that they have won 19 of their last 21 games against Cincinnati, including 14 straight going back to September 2014. Like the Mets, the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds (55-76) are also just counting the days until October 1, MLB's final regular season day. |
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08-28-17 | Braves v. Phillies -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Philles may own MLB's worst record (48-81) but Rhys Hoskins has gotten the attention of the baseball world in the opening month of his major league career. Hoskins became the fastest player to reach 10 HRs in baseball’s modern era on Saturday, when he reached double digits in the 17th game of his career. He followed with his 11th career HR in Sunday’s 6-3 victory over the Cubs, giving him five consecutive games with a round-tripper. The Phillies come off taking two of three against the Cubs and now continue their homestand with a three-game series against the Braves. Atlanta has lost 12 of 18 contests, after the Rockies completed a three-game sweep of the Braves with Sunday's 3-0 shutout in Atlanta. The Braves returned from the All Star break to sweep the Arizona D'backs in a three-game home series to reach 45-45 but have since fallen 14-games under .500 (57-71) by dropping 26 of their last 38 games. The pitching matchup: Rookie Lucas Sims (2-3 & 4.13 ERA) goes for Atlanta to open the series tonight, opposed by Philly's Aaron Nola (9-9 & 3.58 ERA). Sims lost his first three major-league starts (5.71 ERA) but has given up only two runs on eight hits across 11 innings (1.64 ERA) to defeat Colorado and Seattle. This marks his first start against the Phillies. Nola is hoping to rebound from two consecutive poor starts, allowing 12 ERs on 16 hits and five walks over 11 1/3 innings (9.53 ERA) while losing to San Francisco and Miami. However, let's not forget that even after those two brutal outings, his ERA is a respectable 3.58 on the season. That's because prior to his back-to-back defeats, he produced a 10-start stretch (from June 22 through August 12) in which he posted a 1.71 ERA while going 6-2 (Phils were 7-3). Nola beat the Braves in his only appearance against them this season (3-1 back on June 6), and is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in six career starts against Atlanta (team is 4-2). The pick: Sure, the Phillies own MLB's worst record but as noted above, the Braves 'limp into' this series playing very poorly the last month-and-a-half. What's more, the Phillies have dominated their NL East rival in 2017, beating the Braves 11 times in 13 games and in all seven meetings at Philadelphia. Make the Phillies an 8* play. |
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08-28-17 | Mariners v. Orioles UNDER 11 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a three-game series on the road against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The Mariners are 66-65 and the Orioles 65-65 plus each team owns an identical minus-23 run differential. The duo is among a very crowded race that sees seven teams within three-games of the AL's final wild card spot (Seattle is 1 1/2 games back and Baltimore two back of the Twins, who currently own that No. 2 spot). Baltimore welcomes Seattle to town after completing a three-game sweep in Boston over the weekend, outscoring the AL East-leading Red Sox 25-4 in the process. Meanwhile, Seattle committed five errors in one inning during Sunday's 10-1 loss to the NY Yankees, while losing the rubber match of that three-game series. Baltimore owns a four-game winning streak overall but has fared poorly against Seattle in recent meeting, losing eight of the last 10. The pitching matchup :Marco Gonzales (0-1 & 7.40 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle and Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.75 ERA) for Baltimore. Gonzales was acquired from the Cardinals on July 21 and failed to make it through five innings for the fifth time in as many starts this past Tuesday at Atlanta. He took the 4-0 loss, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks while throwing 99 pitches over 4 2/3 innings. He's made five starts in 2017 (four with Seattle and one with St. Louis / teams are 2-3) in which opponents are batting .352 against him. Gonzales settled for a no-decision versus the Orioles on August 16, when he permitted four runs over 4 1/3 innings, although Seattle won 7-6. Tillman did not factor in the decision in his return to the rotation on August 20 versus the LA Angels. He allowed four runs and issued a career high-tying six walks across 5 1/3 innings in a game the Angels won 5-4. Tillman won 56 games for Baltimore the previous four seasons, winning 16 times in both 2013 and 2016. However, it's been a 'lost season' for the 2013 All Star, who owns a 1.99 WHIP and .342 opponents BA to go along with his 7.75 ERA. The pick: Looking at these two starting pitchers, an "over" would be the knee-jerk response. However, note that Tillman is an impressive 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts / team is 8-2) versus Seattle. Let's take a "leap of faith" and make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-27-17 | New York Mets - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals will host the NY Mets in a Sunday doubleheader, with the second game being the Sunday night ESPN contest. The 77-50 Nats are cruising to a NL East crown (lead the division by 12 1/2 games), despite a long injury list. The 56-72 Mets are 21 1/2 games back of the Nats and have lost 10 of their 14 meetings with Washington this season.
The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (5-3 & 4.85 ERA) will start tonight's second game for New York, opposed by Washington's Tanner Roark (10-8 & 4.64 ERA). Lugo will be making his first appearance since August 11 and will attempt trying to snap a run of three consecutive poor starts. He failed to complete six innings in any of those three outings (he's 0-1 and the Mets 1-2), allowing 13 ERs over just 16 innings (7.31 ERA). He last saw Washington back on July 4 and that did not go well, as Lugo gave up six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss. That leaves him 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Roark comes in pitching fairly well, having allowed more than three ERs in just one of his last eight starts (he's 4-3 and Washington 4-4). Roark is making his second start of the season against the Mets and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings against the division rivals without factoring in the decision back on April 21. He's 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Mets (team is 7-3). |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The final game of NFL preseason action goes Sunday night at US Bank Stadium, as the 1-1 San Francisco 49ers meet the 1-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Niners surprised the Chiefs 27-17 in KC in Week 1 but then lost badly at home in Week 2, 33-14 to the Broncos. Minnesota beat the Bills 17-10 in their opener but then fell to the Seahawks last Friday by a score of 20-13. That defeat was just Minnesota's second in 15 preseason game sunder head coach Mike Zimmer. San Francisco: The 49ers finished 2-14 last season and Chip Kelly was fired after just one season,replaced by Kyle Shanahan. Some notable signings in the off-season by the Niners concentrated on an offense which averaged only 19.3 PPG in 2016 (27th). Those signings included WR DeAndre Carter, WR Pierre Garcon, QB Brian Hoyer, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Aldrich Robinson and RB Tim Hightower. Brian Hoyer is taking over as the new starter with C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley fighting for the backup role. RB Carlos Hyde had a solid 2016 season, rushing for 988 rushing yards while averaging 4.6 YPC. Not sure what to make of the team's defense though, as the 49ers allowed 30.0 PPG in 2016, to rank dead-last in the NFL. Minnesota: The Vikings were an early season surprise in 2016, opening 5-0 but in the end the team finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. It was quite a collapse and it will be interesting to see how the team responds in 2017.Sam Bradford is the starting QB and Case Keenum was signed to backup Bradford until Teddy Bridgewater returns. A.P. is no longer around but it looks like FSU's Dalvin Cook (rushed for 1765 yards with Florida State in 2016), will be the starter. The offense must improve, after averaging 20.4 PPG (23rd). The Minnesota defense was very good in 2016, giving up an average of just 19.2 PPG (6th). The pick; I noted Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer at the top but I'm not so sure we can expect more of teh same from the Vikings. Expect to see a heavy dose of first-team starters in this one on both sides and I want all the points I can get in this one. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
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08-27-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -130 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays led the Twins 8-2 in Saturday's game but needed to hold on for a 10-9 win. Toronto is 61-68 on the season and while the Blue Jays are five games back of the final wild card spot in the AL, with SIX teams to 'climb over,' the team's playoff hopes are not exactly realistic. Holding on to that No. 2 wild card spot is the Minnesota Twins, who after losing for the seventh time in their last 21 games, sit at 66-63, a half-game up on the Angels and Mariners. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (7-10 & 5.76 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Joe Biagini (3-8 & 5.11 ERA). Gibson had a season-high eight Ks in his last outing, a 4-1 victory over the White Sox in Chicago on Tuesday. However, he had gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his previous three starts (Twins were 1-2). Gibson is 1-1 with a 4.94 ERA in four career starts against Toronto (teams are 1-2). Biagini is being recalled from Triple-A to make his first start since July 2. He pitched strictly out of the bullpen after that ugly July 2 start and then was sent to the minors in early August. However, he returns after making four starts with Buffalo, going 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. Biagini has not performed well for Toronto in 2017, going 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts with the Blue Jays this season (jays are 4-7) and in his last ML start, allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 15-1 loss to Boston on July 2. Biagini has not made a career start against teh Twins but allowed one run and three hits over two innings in a pair of relief appearances versus Minnesota last season. The pick: It's hard to make a strong case for Toronto but the same can be said about Minnesota's Gibson. The 'kicker' is that when the Twins won 6-1 Friday night in Toronto, it ended a seven-game losing streak at Rogers Centre for Minnesota. The rubber match of the series goes this afternoon but looking at the record book we find the Twins have won just one series at Rogers Centre over the past 10 years (back in 2014 when they rook two out of three from the Blue Jays on June 9-11). Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers are in LA for a three-game series with the Dodgers and were held to one hit in Friday’s 3-1 loss. However, they remained three games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, as the Cubs lost 7-1 in Philadelphia to the ML-worst Phillies (47-70). Kenta Maeda tossed six strong innings and Yasiel Puig hit his 23rd homer Friday as the Dodgers improved to 56-11 since June 7 and 91-36, overall. The pitching matchup: Milwaukee ace Zach Davies (14-7 & 4.09 ERA) squares off against LA's Ross Stripling (3-4 & 3.41 ERA), who will be making his first start of 2017, after 35 relief appearances. Davies recorded his sixth quality start in his past seven outings last Monday, allowing two runs over six innings in a 2-0 loss to San Francisco. He owns a 7-3 record and 2.65 ERA in his last 11 outings and his plus-$755 moneyline mark (16-10 in team starts) ranks 8th-best among all starters. Davies is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles (team is ), including six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory back on June 4. Stripling will move into the rotation to start in place of Alex Wood, who landed on the 10-day disabled list last Tuesday with a left shoulder injury. Stripling is making his first start for the Dodgers this season after going back and forth between the rotation and bullpen in 2016, finishing 5-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 games (14 starts). He owns a 6-5 record and 3.80 ERA in 28 career games (eight starts) at Dodger Stadium. The pick: Davies has started 13 games at home and 13 on the road here in 2017. His home ERA is 5.97 and road WHIP is 1.63, which is in stark contrast to his 2.33 road ERA and 1.16 road WHIP! Stripling is expected to pitch three or four innings and throw about 40-50 pitches, with the Dodgers planning to have a "bullpen game." Josh Ravin, Edward Paredes and Tony Cingrani are all expected to back up Stripling. Let's not forget that the Dodgers own MLB's best bullpen ERA at 2.97 or that Milwaukee has scored a total of just seven runs over its last four contests. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Chargers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Here in LA circa 2017, it's "Back to the Future." When the AFL was formed back in 1960, the Chargers were located in LA, before moving to San Diego in 1961 and remained there when the leagues merged in 1970. The Rams began in Cleveland but moved to LA in 1946. The Rams left the West Coast to relocate in St. Louis in 1995 and just returned to LA for the 2016 season. Lo and behold, the Chargers moved north to LA after last season and now the Rams and Chargers are both LA-based teams once again. The Chargers have opened 0-2 SU & ATS (lost 48-17 to Seattle in Week 1 and then 13-7 loss to the Saints in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Rams who are coming off a 4-12 season in the team's first year back in LA, have begun their preseason 2-0 SU & ATS, edging the Cowboys 13-10 in Week 1 and the Raiders 24-21 in Week 2. LA Chargers: Philip Rivers sat out last week, with Kellen Clemens seeing a good amount of action. However, he completed 10 of 17 passes for only 99 yards without a TD or INT. Cardale Jones went 7 for 15 with 61 yards and an interception in the loss. RB Melvin Gordon only had three carries for eight yards last week. The Chargers could get nothing going on the ground last week, rushing for a team total of only 66 yards (29 carries) and finished the game with only 158 total yards and 13 FDs. The offense wasn't much better in Week 1 (14 FDs on 322 yards), although the defense rebound by allowing just 13 points after giving up 48 points in Week 1. LA Rams: Jared Goff was sharp in last week's three-point win over the Raiders, completing 16 of 20 for 160 yards and a TD. Sean Mannion was also very good, throwing for 132 yards and a touchdown on 15 of 22 passing. Mannion got most of the work in LA's 13-10 Week 1 win over Dallas, completing 18 of 25 for 144 yards (no TDs or INTs). The Rams' D allowed 21 points but just 261 yards against Oakland, which followed them holding Dallas to just 10 points on 248 yards (just 9 FDs) in Week 1. The pick: That Rams' D is the key to this play, as I've been very impressed. Yes, the Rams will see more of Rivers (he was 5 of 6 for 56 yards and one TD in Week 10) and also RB Gordon but the Chargers are averaging only 12.0 PPG through their first two. Goff and Mannion have looked good so far for the Rams but here, that duo will see much more defensive regulars than they have in the first two weeks. Remember, the Rams averaged an NFL low 14.0 PPG in 2016. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-26-17 | Colts +6 v. Steelers | Top | 19-15 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts 0-2 (0-2 ATS) visit Heinz Field for a Week 3 preseason contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0 (2-0 ATS). Indianapolis is coming off a disappointing 8-8 season in 2016 which saw them finish third in the AFC South and the Colts, still playing without QB Andrew Luck, have scored a modest 29 points in their two losses. The Steelers won the AFC North with an 11-5 record in 2016 and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 36-17 to the Patriots. Pittsburgh opened the preseason with a 20-12 win at the NY Giants and followed with a 17-13 home win over the Falcons, the defending NFC champs. Indianapolis: Andrew Luck had shoulder surgery over eight months ago and while reports having him back to throwing the football, Jim Irsay told the Indianapolis Star that there is no guarantee that he will be back in time for the regular season. The Colts have scaled back the playbook for backup Scott Tolzien, who got the start and completed 10 of 14 passes for 70 yards and led his team to a FG in one of his five drives at the helm in last week's loss to the Cowboys. The Colts' lone TD came on a pass from Stephen Morris, who finished 11-for-15 for 111 yards and the score. The Indy D was terrible though, allowing 489 total yards (328 through the air)! Pittsburgh: The Steelers found themselves trailing the Atlanta Falcons 13-3 at halftime last week but rallied in the second half with two TDs to pull out the four-point comeback victory. Rookie QB Josh Dobbs (Tennessee ) got the start for the Steelers, completing 10 of his 19 passes for 70 yards and an interception. However, it was un-drafted free agent QB Bart Houston who would provide the winning touchdown pass. However, Pittsburgh's offense was able to generate just 189 total yards. The pick: Bell has still not reported but Big Ben should see extended playing time, after sitting out last week. Yes, the Steelers are a deep and well-coached unit (nothing new there) but I expect a good effort here from the Colts. Tomlin's an intense coach but after a 2-0 start, what's the big deal about beating the Luck-less 0-2 Colts? Surprise! Make the Colts a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State +2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-58 | Loss | -110 | 1604 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oregon State Beavers, coming off a 4-8 season, will play the Colorado State Rams (7-6 in 2016) at Fort Collins, in the Ram's new on-campus stadium (yet to be named). It's rare that a Pac-12 team visits a MWC school and this marks Oregon State's first-ever visit to Fort Collins, as the two schools meet for just the third time ever (last meeting was in Corvallis back in 1975!). Oregon State: The Beavers are off a 4-8 season but that was an improvement from the 2-10 record the school posted in head coach Gary Anderson's first year at Corvallis (2015). However, the former Utah State and Wisconsin head coach is feeling quite optimistic heading going into 2017. The Beavers finished their season with impressive wins against Arizona and Oregon. The season-ending win over the University of Oregon, which allowed OSU to finish ahead of the Ducks in the Pac-12 North, provided a singular, long-lasting pleasure in Corvallis, which has helped fuel this year's optimism. Utah State transfer QB Darell Garretson started the first six games of 2016 for the Beavers, going 2-4 SU in a mixed performance (50.0% with three TDs and four INTs), before suffering a fractured ankle. That forced Marcus Maryion into action, with the then-sophomore also going 2-4 SU, but with a much stronger arm. He completed 59.4% with 10 TDs and five INTs. He threw five TD passes in the win over Arizona and had one TD pass plus 81 yards rushing in the win over Oregon). That said, Jake Luton, a JUCO transfer, has been named the starter for opening day. Oregon State will rely heavily on RB Ryan Nall, who finished last season with 13 TDs and 951 rushing yards. To compete in the Pac-12, OSU will have to improve offensively, after averaging 26.2 PPG (105th in the nation). The defense has allowed more than 30.5 PPG (last year's average) in four consecutive seasons, as well as an average of about 440.0 YPG in that span, as well. Colorado State: The Rams have gone 7-6 in each of Mike Bobo's first two years at CSU, with both years ending in a bowl loss. The Rams finished the season strong winning four of their last five regular season games. The offense averaged 35.5 PPG on 462.5 (217.8 rushing and 244.7 passing). Dual threat QB Nick Stevens (64.2% with 19 TD passes) completed 75% in four straight games last year and accounted for five scores in 61-50 loss to Idaho in the Potato Bowl. WR Michael Gallup (76 catches for 1,272 receiving yards and 14 TDs) is Stevens' top weapon plus RBs Dalyn Dawkins (919 rush yards) and Izzy Matthews (734 yards & 13 TDs) are both back. The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 30.4 PPG (81st) on 419.2 YPG (69th). The pick: The Rams have won their last four home openers, as part of a current 20-3 run in home openers plus Oregon State visits Fort Collins looking to end a steak of 13 consecutive road losses. However, the modest pointspread alerts us to that fact that Oregon State is no longer a pushover. I'm a big fan of Gary Andersen and it was in his third year at Utah State that he got that program turned around. 2017 is his third year in Corvallis and I expect Oregon Sate to spring the minor upset, jump-staring what could be a 3-0 start for the Beavers in 2017 (home games with Portland St. and Minnesota are up next). Make OSU a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -135 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins opened their eight-game week (played a doubleheader Monday in Chicago) by losing three of five to the AL-worst White Sox but began their three-game weekend series in Toronto with a 6-1 win over the Blue Jays. Minnesota's 14 wins since August 6 are the most in the majors over that span and the 66-62 Twins maintained their one-half game lead in the AL wild-card chase over the 66-63 Mariners with last night's victory. The Blue Jays' loss ended a seven-game home winning streak over the Twins (dated back to June 11, 2014,) to fall to 60-68. It was Toronto's sixth loss in its last seven outings and while the Blue Jays are only six games back of Minnesota, there are a whopping SIX teams between Toronto and Minnesota! |
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08-25-17 | Rays v. Cardinals -156 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -156 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This weekend's lone IL series features a pair of playoff contenders, the 63-66 Tampa Bay Rays visiting the 64-63 St. Louis Cardinals for a three-game series beginning Friday night. This marks the first contest of a nine-game road trip for the Rays, who are three games back of the AL's second wild card spot but it's a very crowded field. Meanwhile, the Cards are five games out in the NL wild card race but also just 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. By comparison, the Rays are 11 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The pitching matchup: Jake Odorizzi (6-7 & 4.74 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and Michael Wacha (9-6 & 4.08 ERA) for the Cardinals. Odorizzi looks to rebound after getting pounded for seven runs on eight hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings against Seattle on Saturday in a 7-6 loss. That marked the third time in his last four starts that he hasn't completed five innings, going 0-3 with a 6.63 ERA in that stretch (Rays are 0-4). Odorizzi, who is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against St. Louis and has gone 6-3 with a 3.17 mark in interleague play. Wacha has also completed more than five innings just once in his last four starts (Cards are 1-3) and allowed five runs over four innings last Saturday in a 6-4 loss at Pittsburgh. Wacha had been pitching pretty well prior to his last four starts, as the Cards had gone 6-2 in his previous eight outings. Wacha permitted four runs in five innings of his only start against Tampa Bay(back in in 2014 / 0-1 & 7.20 ERA) and is 5-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 interleague games. The pick: The Rays could very well fall out of wild card contention with a poor road trip and I don't much like their chances in this one. Wacha has struggled on the road with a 5.57 ERA but here in St. Louis, it's 2.99. Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 26 m | Show |
he set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an impressive 30-12 win last week in Cincinnati, evening their record at 1-1 (lost 27-17 at home in Week 1 to the 49ers). The Chiefs travel to CenturyLink Field in Seattle Friday for an ESPN televised game with the 2-0 Seahawks, who crushed the LA Chargers 48-17 in Week 1 and then handed the Vikings a rare preseason loss last Friday night at home, 20-13. These teams used to be division rivals (AFC West) but since 2002 have played in opposite conferences. Kansas City: Alex Smith completed eight of nine passes for 83 yards and one TD in last week's win plus rookie Patrick Mahomes II threw for 88 yards and two TDs. KC's offense was hitting on all cylinders against the Bengals, as Charcandrick West topped 100 rushing yards (113 yards on just seven carries), a feat not often accomplished in the preseason. The Chiefs out-gained the Bengals 410-257 in total yards in the contest, won the FD battle 22-13 and controlled the time of possession battle by a 34:17 to 25:43 margin. Seattle: The Seahawks have had little trouble moving the football and scoring in this preseason. Seattle exploded for 48 points (458 yards) in Week 1, as Russell Wilson played just one series (3 of 4 for 41 yards). However, Seattle's starting QB looked to be in regular season form after completing 13 of 18 passes for 206 yards and two TDs in last Friday's win. Seattle only scored 20 points against the Vikings but did roll up 406 yards. The Seattle D has also looked good (backups and all), allowing 15.0 PPG in its two wins. The pick: It’s a Week 3 preseason matchup, so expect the starters to play "serious minutes" for both team, as they try to find a groove. Smith is looking over his shoulder for KC, as Mahomes has shined in back-to-back games. Both QBs will be looking to impress, testing Seattle's D. As noted, Seattle's offense is clicking on all cylinders making this a 10* play on the Over. |
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08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins fell seven games below .500 (53-60) after dropping three of four at Washington from Aug. 7-10. However, a surprising sweep of Colorado jump-started a 10-3 run over their last three contests. Miami followed up its three-game sweep of the Rockies by taking seven of 10 from a trio of the NL's worst teams, the Giants, Mets and Phillies. Thursday's wild 9-8 victory over the Phillies (Miami hit three of its four HRs after falling behind 8-3 in the fourth inning) kept them 5 1/2 games behind the Rockies for the NL's second wild card spot). The Marlins now face another sub-.500 team in the 57-70 Padres, who took the rubber match of their three-game series with St. Louis on Thursday, allowing Miami to move within one-half game of one of the two teams (the Cardinals) it has to leapfrog in order to make a run at Colorado. |
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08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -119 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels will host the Texas Rangers Thursday night in the finale of a four-game series between the two AL wild card contenders. The Rangers won 7-5 (10-innings) on Wednesday, giving them wins in two of the first three in this series, as well as seven wins over their last 10, overall. At 63-63, Texas sits two games out of the final AL wild card spot, held by the Twins. Meanwhile, the 65-62 Angels sit one-half game back of the Twins, in a virtual tie with the 64-61 Royals. This AL wild card chase will likely go down to the final weekend of the season. The pitching matchup: Martin Perez (8-10 & 5.26 ERA) starts for Texas and Troy Scribner (2-0 & 3.46) for LA. Perez received ample support Saturday against the Chicago White Sox (Rangers won 17-7) and won his third straight start despite allowing six runs over six innings. He owns a 6.86 ERA in his last seven starts (since July 19) but is somehow 3-4. Perez is 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 career games (nine starts / Rangers are 4-5) against Los Angeles, including 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in four outings at Angel Stadium. Scribner will be recalled from Triple-A to start in place of JC Ramirez, who is out indefinitely with a right elbow strain. The 26-year-old rookie made his second career start on Aug. 9 against Baltimore, allowing one run with no walks over five innings of a 5-1 victory. Scribner owns an 11-4 record and 4.35 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) for Salt Lake this season. The pick: Perez may own three straight wins but in a team-leading 24 starts, he owns a 1.57 WHIP and .306 BAA to go along with his bloated 5.26 ERA in 2017. Mike Trout and Co. should have few problems with this lefty. Make LA an 8* play. |
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08-24-17 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
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08-24-17 | Panthers +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars are both 1-1 as the two teams get set to square off in this Week 3 meeting Thursday night at EverBank Field. As most know, Week 3 games are typically called "dress rehearsal" contests. However, Cam Newton has yet to dress for the first two games, as the Panthers are being extra cautious with his shoulder. As for the Jags, they couldn't generate any offense in their 12-8 loss to the Buccaneers last week, and after the game head coach Doug Marrone voiced his displeasure with Blake Bortles. It appears the Jags now have a battle brewing for the starting QB role in the last two weeks of the preseason. Carolina: Head coach Ron Rivera confirmed Tuesday that his star QB will take first snaps against the Jacksonville Jaguars, barring a setback with Newton's surgically repaired shoulder. That said, Newton is only expected to play about eight to 10 snaps against the Jaguars. So far, Derek Anderson (11 of 17 for 164 yards with one TD and one INT) and Joe Webb (12 of 20 for 195 yards with three TDs and one INT) have seen the most work. After a brief appearance by Newton, those two should be competing for the backup role. The Panthers have shown great promise on the offensive side, combining for 54 points in two games, despite no Newton. Jacksonville: Clearly, the Jags are becoming frustrated with Blake Bortles but do they have a Plan B? Chad Henne has had very little success in the NFL, posting 58:63 TD to INT ratio and 75.5 QB rating in his career to-date. As for Brandon Allen, he's in his second season (from Arkansas) and has yet to attempt an NFL regular season pass. The pick: The 'talk' is that moving on from Bortles would breathe life into the entire Jacksonville team from a confidence standpoint. However, I just don't see that considering the options Jacksonville currently has. After scoring 31 points in an upset of the Pats, the Jags 'laid an egg' with an eight-point effort vs. Tampa Bay. This hardly 'feels' like a team ready for a dress rehearsal. I'm making the Panthers a 10* play. |
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08-24-17 | Dodgers -152 v. Pirates | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-6 & 3.45 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Chad Kuhl (6-8 & 4.52 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Ryu's 4-6 record hardly tells the story of his 2017 season. Ryu opened the season by losing his first four starts but he has gone more than 2 1/2 months without tasting defeat, since. He will carry a nine-start unbeaten streak into Thursday afternoon's finale. Yes, victories continue to elude Ryu but while he's just 2-0 in his nine-game unbeaten streak, the Dodgers have won EIGHT of those nine starts (2.77 ERA). Kuhl won his 2017 debut but then went 12 starts without a victory (he was 0-6 and Pittsburgh 2-10). However, he's turned things around by posting a 5-2 record over the past two months, although teh Pirates are 7-5 in that 12-start stretch. Kuhl took the 5-2 loss at Dodger Stadium on May 10 by giving up four runs on six hits over five innings. That leaves him 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA against LA in three career starts The pick: Ryu also owns three career starts against tonight's opponent but is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Throw in LA winning eight of his last nine outings and the Dodgers' overall dominating play and a bounce back from last night's 1-0 loss comes as no surprise. Make LA a 10* play. |
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08-24-17 | Marlins -120 v. Phillies | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: There have been very few "rays of light" in 2017 for the Phillies, who own MLB's worst record at 46-79. However, Rhys Hoskins just extended his hitting streak to five games with a three-run HR to highlight a five-run third inning and added a two-run double in the sixth in Wednesday's 8-0 rout. He's 7-for-18 with four HRs, 11 RBI and six runs scored during his streak, as the Phillies have won three of the five games. The Phillies will go for a split of their four-game series with the Marlins this afternoon and enter a respectable 5-6 versus the Marlins this season, not bad for a team playing .368 baseball on the season. Miami scored 19 runs on 27 hits in Tuesday's doubleheader sweep plus had scored 64 runs total during a 9-2 stretch (5.82 RPG) but then managed a measly two hits in Wednesday's shutout loss. Miami is out of the division race (Nats lead by 13 1/2 games in the NL East) but Marlins are 5 1/2 games behind Colorado for the second wild-card spotThe pitching matchup: Vance Worley (2-3 & 4.82 ERA) will face his former team for the fifth time in his career (just a third start) when he takes the mound for Miami and he'll be opposed by Jake Thompson (1-1 & 4.20 ERA). Worley allowed two runs on three hits in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 defeat at the New York Mets in his last outing, dropping to 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA this month in four starts. Worley will receive his third look at his former team this season, yielding three runs on seven hits in four innings of two relief stints. He's made two career starts against the Phillies, going 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA. Thompson is being called up from Triple-A to make Thursday's start with Philadelphia in the midst of playing six games in a five-day stretch due to Tuesday's doubleheader. He was shredded in his last outing with the Phillies on Aug. 2, surrendering seven runs on nine hits (including three HRs) in a 7-0 loss at the Los Angeles Angels. Thompson will be making his 16th career appearance and 13th start on Thursday, albeit his first versus Miami.
The pick: Worley spent his first three major league seasons (2010-12) with the Phillies. He was traded to the Twins in late 2012, spending 2013 with Minnesota, 2014-15 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, 2016 with the Baltimore Orioles and now returning to the NL East when he was signed last off-season by the Marlins to a minor league deal. He got called up in May, first as a starter before moving to the bullpen. He made 10 appearances as a reliever between May 30 and July 25 but got another chance in the rotation after Tom Koehler's late-July demotion to Triple-A. He has made the most of that chance by going 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA in five starts since then (Marlins are 4-1). Thompson owns a 5.37 career ERA, a 1.57 career WHIP and opponents have batted .281 against him in his 15 career appearances, including .333 in 2017. Make the Marlins an 8* play.. |
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08-23-17 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins were caught from behind and passed by the defending AL Champs (Cleveland Indians) in the AL Central but they have righted the ship with a 13-4 run which has not enabled them to catch the Indians (Cleveland leads the division by 4 1/2 games) but has allowed them to keep their playoff hopes alive. The 65-60 Twins currently own the No. 2 wild card spot, led by a power surge which has seen them hit 17 HRs in their last six games, while averaging more than two per contest during their 13-4 run. Minnesota hit three HRs in Tuesday's 4-1 victory in Chicago against the White Sox and the five-game series (teams played a doubleheader on Monday) continues tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The 48-76 White Sox own the AL's worst record and have been "playing out the string" for quire awhile now. |
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08-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
The-set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays opened August with three straight wins but until last night's 6-3 win over the Blue Jays, the Rays hadn't won back-to-back games (TB beat Sea 3-0 on Sunday) since that three-game run to open the month. Tampa Bay is 62-65 on the season and is currently four games back in the race for the American League’s second wild card spot but the bigger problem may be that the Rays are one of five teams vying for that spot, not to mention the Orioles, who are just a half-game behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are two games back of the Rays (six back of the No. 2 wild card spot) but are fading out of the AL wild card race with four straight losses to start their road trip, as they continue this three-game series at Tropicana Field. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (11-6 & 2.99 ERA) has been pitching well and takes the mound tonight for Toronto, squaring off against Tampa Bay rookie Austin Pruitt (6-4 & 5.37 ERA). Stroman comes in off three straight quality starts and six in his last eight games overall (Jays are 5-3), after limiting Tampa Bay to two runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings last Wednesday in a 3-2 Toronto victory. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rays (team is 5-5). Pruitt registered a career-high seven innings last time out against Seattle, but allowed six runs on 11 hits and two walks in his second straight loss. The rookie had strung together three consecutive quality starts before his last game while permitting a modest four runs on 16 hits over 18 1/3 innings combined in that span (1.96 ERA). This will be his first career start vs. Toronto but he is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in three previous relief appearances against the Blue Jays The pick: The Tampa Bay offense has come alive lately (15 runs in its last three games), while the Toronto lineup will face a rookie with a 1.50 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with his 5.37 ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-23-17 | Brewers v. Giants -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers wasted an excellent pitching effort Monday by Zach Davies (two unearned runs allowed over six innings) in a 2-0 Loss, as Milwaukee's lineup managed just four singles. The loss meant that the Brewers had dropped 10 of their last 11 at AT&T Park but Milwaukee to erased a 3-2 deficit with a two-run seventh inning and won, 4-3 last night. The Brewers remained 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central (Chicago won 13-9 at Cincy) and climbed within three of Colorado for the second wild-card spot (Rockies lost 3-2 at KC). The teams play the rubber match of the series this afternoon, with the Giants 'limping along' with the MLB's second-worst record (51-77) and its worst moneyline mark at minus-$3149 ($640 worse than than the Phillies). |
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08-22-17 | Brewers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers coughed up a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs at the All Star break in the NL Central. However, after losing six straight from Aug. 6-11, Milwaukee had won six of seven to climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as they began a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. The good news was that the Giants owned MLB's third-worst record plus MLB's worst moneyline mark but the kicker was that the Brewers had dropped 35 of their last 55 games in San Francisco, including nine of their last 10. "Lightning didn't strike," as the Giants shut out the Brewers 2-0 last night, as Milwaukee managed only four singles in the defeat (ruined a solid effort by Davies, who allowed two uneraned runs in six innings). The setback was Milwaukee's 10th in its last 11 meetings at AT&T Park, dropping them 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and 3 1/2 back of Arizona for the second wild-card spot. San Francisco improved to 3-2 on its seven-game homestand as rookie Chris Stratton and three relievers combined on the four-hit shutout. |
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08-22-17 | Mariners -104 v. Braves | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners opened a four-city, 13-day, 12-game road trip this past weekend and took two of three from the Rays in Tampa. The Mariners arrived in Atlanta for a three-game series on Monday and were able win win 6-5. At 64-62, they are one game back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot, with the Angels just a half-game ahead of them. The Mariners have their work cut out for themselves, as in order to stay in the wild card chase, they will have to navigate a stretch that has them playing 21 away games in 28 contests. The good news is, that after opening 8-20 on the road, the Mariners have gone 22-10 on the road since that awful start. Atlanta fell to 55-68 on the season with the defeat, losing for the 23rd time in 33 games since July 17, the most losses by any team during that stretch. |
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08-22-17 | Cubs -154 v. Reds | Top | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
The Chicago Cubs sprinted out of the gate right after the All Sta break, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. However, a 3-7 run (from Aug. 2-9) brought them back to the pack, but they are hopeful that they have righted the ship by winning eight of the their last 11, including a three-game IL series sweep over the Blue Jays this past weekend. Coming off a day of rest on Monday, the Cubs were helped by the Giants who beat the Brewers 2-0 and Chicago currently sits 2 1/2 games up on the Brewers and 3 1/2 up on the Cards in the division. The Cubs have a golden opportunity to pad their lead with a six-game road trip to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, which are both last-place teams. “It’s that time of year, sink or swim now,” Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. “We’ve got to just keep going and play clean baseball. I think we are.” The Reds have played better of late, winning four of their last six and splitting a four-game series in Chicago last week. However, the Reds are 53-72, a record better than only the 51-win Giants and 45-win Phils in the National League. |
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08-21-17 | Brewers -117 v. Giants | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers coughed up a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs at the All Star break in the NL Central. However, after losing six straight from Aug. 6-11, Milwaukee has managed to win six of seven and climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as they begin a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. Now the Giants own MLB's third-worst record at 50-76 plus MLB's owrst moneyline mark (minus-$3157) but the kicker is, the Brewers have dropped 35 of their last 55 games in San Francisco, including nine of their last 10. The pitching matchup: Milwaukee gives the ball to staff ace Zach Davies (14-6 & 4.26 ERA), while the Giants send Chris Stratton (1-2 & 4.91 ERA) to the mound, making just the fourth start of this season (seventh of his career). Davies is coming off a strong outing on Tuesday in which he allowed one run and six hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 3-1 home victory over Pittsburgh. The Brewers are 16-9 in all of Davies' 2017 starts, giving him MLB's seventh-best moneyline mark (plus-$-872). Davies been superb on the road this season, posting a 7-0 record and 2.52 ERA in 12 outings (Brewers are 9-3). He will be facing San Francisco for the first time. Stratton takes the mound after posting his first win of 2017 on Aug. 13. He registered 10 strikeouts while scattering five hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings at Washington for his first major-league triumph as a starter (Giants won 4-2). Stratton made a relief appearance against Milwaukee last season, giving up one hit and one walk over two scoreless frames. The pick: The Brewers just may have "righted the ship" and winning this series here in San Francisco against the struggling Giants seems like a must, as three games at Dodger Stadium are up this coming weekend! In Davies I will trust. Make Milwaukee an 8* play. |
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08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Monday Night Football on ESPN at FirstEnergy Stadium, as the 0-1 New York Giants and the 1-0 Cleveland Browns wrap up NFL Week 2 preseason action. The Giants ended a four-year playoff drought in 2016 by finishing 11-5 and earning wild card berth. However, the team's postseason hopes were dashed in a 38-13 loss at Green Bay. The postseason has eluded the Browns for 14 straight years, after they finished 1-15 in 2016. Cleveland has had 13 losing season in that span and hit rock bottom with last year's franchise-worst record. |
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08-21-17 | Mariners v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners opened a four-city, 13-day, 12-game road trip this past weekend and took two of three from the Rays in Tampa. The 63-62 Mariners arrive in Atlanta for the first contest of a three-game series on Monday, 1 1/2 games out of the second AL wild-card spot. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz singled Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 12 games and is batting .422 during that stretch with seven HRs and 16 RBI. The Mariners have their work cut out for themselves, as in order to stay in the wild card chase, they will have to navigate a stretch that has them playing 21 away games in 28 contests. The good news is, that after opening 8-20 on the road, the Mariners arrive in Atlanta having gone 21-10 on the road since that awful start. Atlanta salvaged the finale of a three-game home series with Cincinnati on Sunday, winning 8-1 but sit 55-67 on the season with no playoff hopes, having lost 19 of their last 27 games. The pitching matchup: Andrew Albers (1-0 & 1.80 ERA), who was just purchased from the Braves on Aug. 11 for cash considerations, will face his ex-teammates here for Seattle and match up against Mike Foltynewicz (10-8 & 4.75 ERA). Albers made the most of his first major-league appearance of the season while holding Baltimore to one run over five innings to earn his first big-league victory since his rookie season in 2013. Albers had made 17 appearances in the majors from 2013-2016 with Minnesota and Toronto (2-5 & 4.41 ERA), posted a 2.61 ERA in 26 games for Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate while going 12-3! Foltynewicz has gotten pounded in his last two starts, allowing 14 runs on 16 hits with seven walks in six innings during losses at St. Louis and Colorado (7.88 ERA). However, those two outings followed a 12-start stretch during which he had posted a 3.58 ERA and went 7-1 (Atlanta won 10 of those starts). Foltynewicz enters this contest with the Braves 13-10 in his 2017 starts, giving him an impressive plus-$695 moneyline mark (10th-best). He is 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 47 strikeouts against 19 walks in nine home starts this season (Braves are 7-2). The pick: Albers pitched well in Triple-A this year (see above) and was sharp in his first start for Seattle. He faces his ex-team here and the lefty faces an Atlanta team which has played just 20 games against a left-handed starter in 2017 (10-10). Foltynewicz is off two 'ugly' starts but both came on the road. He's been very good in SunTrust Park in 2017 (again, see above) and I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers -158 v. Pirates | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers saw their six-game winning streak ended by Justin Verlander, as they lost 6-1 Sunday afternoon in Detroit. The defeat also ended LA's streak of 13 consecutive interleague wins (it's been quite a season, so far, for LA, which owns a 20-game lead in the NL West). The Dodgers look to begin a new winning streak and further damage the playoff hopes of the Pirates, when they begin a four-game series in Pittsburgh on Monday. Pittsburgh earned a split of its four-game series against St. Louis by winning the final two contests (won 6-3 last night in Williamsport) but that came on the heels of a six-game losing streak. Sunday's win kept Pittsburgh 6 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central (Pirates are seven games back of the second wild-card spot). . The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (14-1 & 2.30 ERA) continues his "career year" by taking the mound for LA and will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole (10-8 & 4.04 ERA). Wood settled for a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday despite allowing just one run and six hits over seven innings (Dodgers would win 6-1). Wood suffered his first (only) loss of 2017 on July 28, allowing seven ERs over 4 2/3 innings of a 12-3 loss to teh Braves. However, he's 3-0 (team is 4-0) over his last four starts, with Wood posting a 1.89 ERA over his last three. Wood evened his career record against Pittsburgh at 2-2 with a 12-1 home victory on May 8, when he registered a season-high 11 strikeouts while giving up only two hits in five scoreless innings. His ERA is 2.50 in six career starts against the Pirates (teams are just 2-4). Cole has been streaky in 2017 and escaped with a no-decision at Milwaukee on Wednesday after surrendering four runs on five hits (including three HRs) in six innings of a 7-6 Milwaukee win. He has served up six HRs over his last four outings and 26 on the season, which is more than double his previous career high (11). Cole has posted a 5.22 ERA in five career starts against Los Angeles but owns a 3-1 record (Pirtaes are 4-1). The pick: Cole's 5.22 career ERA against the Dodgers hardly bodes well against MLB's best team, one averaging 5.09 RPG while owning a .793 OPS (3rd-best). The Dodgers are 15-4 in Wood's 19 starts in 2017, giving him MLB's sixth-best moneyline mark (plus-$893). Factoring in that the Dodgers are 8-1 in their past nine meetings against the Pirates, I'll make them an 8* play. |
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08-20-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a special game between the Cards and Pirates on Sunday night, as the teams meet at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pa. as part of the Little League Classic. The Pirates will be the host team and yesterday afternoon snapped a six-game slide with a 6-4 victory, The Cardinals took the first two of this four-game series by scoring 11 runs each on Thursday and Friday but were held in check yesterday and with the loss, fell 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central (are also a half-game back of the second-place Brewers). |
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08-20-17 | Falcons v. Steelers +3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Atlanta: Matt Ryan saw limited action last week but made the most of it, going 3 for 3 with 32 yards and a TD. RB Devonta Freeman caught that 15-yard TD pass from Ryan but had just one rushing attempt, as did the backfield partner, Tevin Colemn (the two combined for four rushing yards). Simms, who owns just 39 regular season pass attempts in his NFL career (none since 2014), saw the most action at QB (10 of 20 for 104 yards). The Atlanta D had two 'picks' but also allowed two TD passes in the fourth quarter of the three-point loss. Pittsburgh: The Steelers won 20-12 last week but made just 10 FDs and gained a pathetic 226 yards. Fourth-round pick Joshua Dobbs saw the bulk of the game action at QB, going 8 for 15 with 100 yards, a touchdown but also two INTs. Pittsburgh's D led the way to victory, coming up with seven sacks, two takeaways (1 INT & 1 fumble) but consistently were able to stall New York possessions, holding the Giants to four FGs. The pick: Neither team showed much on offense in their respective Week 1 games and it's expected that both teams' starters will not see significant action until the third game of the preseason. That leaves me with the better defensive team which is the Steelers. Make Pittsburgh |
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08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -158 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets came into Saturday's game with the Marlins on a 1-8 run at home in Citi Field, a span in which they had averaged a paltry 2.3 RPG. It was more of the same through five innings on Saturday for New York but then, a seven-run outburst in the sixth led to an 8-1 win. It was the most runs New York has scored at home since July 15 and it snapped the club's five-game overall losing streak overall. The Mets now set their sights on a series win when they host the Miami Marlins in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday afternoon. Miami lost for just the second time in eight games, as Giancarlo Stanton was walked three times while being kept in the ballpark for the third straight game, which follows his string of six straight contests with a HR. |
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08-19-17 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
full analysis |
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08-19-17 | White Sox v. Rangers UNDER 12 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers took a four-game winning streak, one in which they had scored 37 runs (9.25 per), into Friday night's second contest of a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox, owners of the American League's worst record. However, Texas was held to just three runs on six hits in the one-run loss. It was just the Rangers' second loss in their last nine games, as the club sits 1 1/2 games behind Minnesota and the LA Angels in the battle for the American League's second wild card. Chicago ended a five-game losing streak but the White Sox have been in a free-fall since July 4, going 9-32 to leave them with a 46-73 record (only the Phillies, at 43-77, are worse in all of MLB!). |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Twins | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -138 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins took the first of their three-game IL series with the D'backs last night, winning 10-3. Minnesota has come out of a slump post-break to win nine of 12 and move into a tie with the LA Angels for the second wild card in the American League. Meanwhile, while the Diamondbacks also hold down the same spot in the NL but with a four-game cushion over St. Louis. However, while Minnesota is streaking, Arizona is fighting a slump, having lost nine of its last 3.The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (14-5 & 3.01 ERA) gets the ball on Saturday for Arizona and the Twins will counter with Jose Berrios (10-5 & 4.27 ERA). Greinke threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings while fanning nine to defeat Houston 2-0 his last time out. It was the fifth straight start in which he has finished at least six innings and left him one win shy of tying Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the lead in the National League. Greinke saw plenty of the Twins from his days in Kansas City and is just 4-8 with a 4.50 ERA over 10 career starts (teams are 5-14). Berrios is coming off poor starts in back-to-back outings, allowing five runs in five innings but escaped with a 6-5 win August 6. He then lasted just 3 1/3 innings while giving up six runs in a wild 12-11 Minnesota los to Detroit on Aug 12 (escaped with a no-decision). This is Berrios' second season (joined the rotation in mid-May of 2017) and after a strong start in which he went 7-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his first eight starts, he's gone 3-4 over his last nine (Twins are 3-6), with his ERA rising to 4.27 on the season. This is his first career start vs. Arizona.
The pick: The good news for Minnesota fans is that Berrios sports a 2.89 ERA in five career interleague starts but I don't believe that's a good enough reason to go against Greinke. Greinke is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA in his last nine starts (D'backs are 7-2), giving him MLB's fifth-best moneyline mark of plus-$912 (17-7 in all starts). Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Panthers opened with a 27-17 home win over the Texans last week and will be in Nashville Saturday afternoon to take on the Tennessee Titans at LP Field. The Titans opened their 2017 preseason by scoring just three points and a modest 223 gaining yards in a 7-3 loss against the NY Jets. The Panthers entered 2016 as the defending NFC champions (15-1 regular season) but stumbled to a 1-5 start that eventually doomed them to a 6-10 finish and last place in the NFC South. It was Carolina’s first missed postseason since 2012. The Titans are off a 9-7 season last year, when they lost the AFC Central title to Houston in a tie-breaker. |
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08-18-17 | Calgary v. BC OVER 56.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
The pick: Bo Kevi Mitchell led Calgray to the Grey Cup Final last season (lost 39-33 in OT to Ottawa), when he threw for 5,392 yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs. He and his team is starting resemble last year's club (we'll know more when the Stampeders finally face off against the Eskimos) but at the moment, I won't buck Calgary. The Stampeders have won eight of their last nine meetings against the Lions and may make it nine of 10 but I see both offenses having HUGE games and prefer the Over. Make it |
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08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday features just one NFL preseason contest, the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. The Vikings are off a 17-10 Week 1 win at Buffalo, as the team improved to an almost hard to believe 13-1 record in preseason contests under Mike Zimmer. Meanwhile the Seahawks opened their 2017 preseason schedule with a 48-17 pasting over the now-LA Chargers last Sunday, ruining the Chargers "return to LA" (Chargers played the AFL's 1960 season in LA before moving to San Diego in 1961).
Minnesota: Staring QB Sam Bradford saw very little action in Week 1 (5 for 7 for 35 yards) as Case Keenum saw the bulk of the workload and completed 11 of 16 passes for 121 yards. Taylor Heinicke completed three passes and a touchdown but also threw an interception. A.P. is now in New Orleans and second round pick Dalvin Cook (FSU) had five carries for 13 yards but also caught 4 balls out of the backfield for 30 yards. The Minnesota defense was solid, allowing 309 yards of total offense and just 10 points. Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer is mind-boggling but I'm backing Seattle in this one, after the team's outstanding Week 1 effort. I don't believe Minnesota can match Seattle's 'firepower.' Make the Seahawks a 10* play. |
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08-18-17 | Brewers v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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08-17-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +1 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-0 Edmonton Eskimos look to keep their perfect record intact when they visit the 5-2 Winnipeg Blue Bombers Thursday at Investors Group Field. QB Mike Reilly is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 2,329 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. He leads an offense which ranks first in YPG (429.3 per) and first in passing yards(332.7 YPG). The Eskimos average 29.1 PPG (3rd-best) but just one of the team's seven wins have come by more than seven points (an 11-point win), hence the team's mediocre 3-3-1 ATS mark. The defense allows 333.9 YPG to also rank third-best. Winnipeg is 5-2 SU & ATS and enters off three straight wins, scoring 41, 33 and 39 points, respectively. QB Matt Nichols completes 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,024 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. Winnipeg scored just 10 points in losing its second game of the season but has scored 33 points or more in its other six games. Defensively, the Blue Bombers allow 31.6 PPG (8th) on 402.1 YPG (7th). |
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08-17-17 | White Sox v. Rangers -153 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers remain in the AL wild card hunt, although they are hardly alone. Texas rolled up 28 runs in a three-game home sweep of the Detroit Tigers to pull within two games of the LA Angels for the second wild card but they are one of SEVEN teams withing 3 1/2 games of that final playoff spot.The Rangers now welcome the Chicago White Sox to Arlington having won six of their last seven games and with hope of continuing their momentum against the White Sox. Chicago has lost four straight and seven of 35 since July 4, leaving them with the AL's worst record at 45-72. Chicago's latest loss was painful, as the White Sox allowed three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning Wednesday to suffer a 5-4 loss to the LA Dodgers, giving them a 20-41 road record.. |
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08-17-17 | Bucs v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 23-12 at Cincinnati last Friday and tonight will travel to play in Jacksonville against the Jaguars (on ESPN), who won 31-24 last Thursday in New England. The Buccaneers lost to the Bengals in their preseason opener after being outscored 17-3 in the second half. However, QB Jameis Winston looked sharp with nine completions on 13 attempts and WR Mike Evans had four receptions for 58 yards. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles had just five pass attempts in the upset of the Pats but backups Chad Henne and Brandon Allen combined for 224 passing yards and two TDs. RB Corey Grant stole the show with 120 rushing yards and one TD on just eight carries, while Leonard Fournette didn’t exactly impress with nine rushes for 31 yards and a one-yard TD run. Tampa Bay: The team's offensive starters are fine and will be even better once RB Doug Martin gets back on the field after his suspension. A worry here is that backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played poorly, completing 6 of 13 for just 45 yards and one INT. Don't expect to see much of Winston in this one (he'll get more time in Week 3), meaning inexperienced QBs like Griffin and Liufau may get extra reps, as it's possible Tampa Bay is questioning whether Fitzpatrick is the team's No. 2 QB. Jacksonville: The Jaguars have to be pleased with what they showed in their first preseason game. Yes, it's just an "exhibition game" but there could be a feeling of "building off beating the champs." The Jags did rack up 447 total yards in the game and that was with little or no contributions from the team's expected top-two offensive players, QB Bortles and first-round draft pick RB Leonard Fournette (LSU). The pick: I'm expecting Winston to see very little action and after the former Heisman Trophy-winner, Tampa Bay's QB rotation is troublesome. The Jags have a losing culture which needs to be turned a round and following an upset of the Pats in Foxboro, a win in front of the home fans (against an in-state rival like the Bucs), would be good 'medicine.' Make the Jags an 8* play. |
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08-16-17 | Tigers v. Rangers -172 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
accidentally entered. Not a play. |
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08-16-17 | Giants v. Marlins -159 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Giancarlo Stanton has homered in six consecutive games (two short of the major league record) and has homered in 23 of his last 35, giving 44 on the season. However, his solo shot in last night's game didn't much help, as the Marlins lost 9-4 at home to the Giants. Miami is 57-61 on the season, 14 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East and the Giants are 48-73, an incredible 37 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The teams play the rubber match of this three-game series early this afternoon at Marlins Park. |
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08-15-17 | Indians -165 v. Twins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians won the final three of their four-game series at Tampa Bay this past weekend and were to continue their 10-game road trip with six games this week (at Minnesota and Kansas City), beginning tonight. However, Cleveland had to make a 'pit stop' Monday at Fenway to make up a rain out with the Red Sox, who were on a 9-1 run. Edwin Encarnacion hit pair of two-run HRs in Monday's 7-3 win over Boston, extending Cleveland's winning streak to four games. Monday's make-up date means the Indians haven't had a day off since July 20 and won't have another one until August 31. However, the busy schedule has worked well for the Indians, who are 16-7 since the team's last off day and in the process, have opened a five-game lead in the AL Central. The 59-57 Twins, along with the Royals, are both five games back of the Indians and Minnesota will open this series having won seven of eight.
The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (4-5 & 4.15 ERA) gets the start for Cleveland and Bartolo Colón (4-9 & 6.77 ERA) for Minnesota. Salazar has permitted four runs in four starts since returning from a seven-week stint on the disabled list (1.42 ERA) but has been able to win just once (Indians are just 2-2). Salazar also has 36 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings in that span. He gave up one run in six innings to win at Minnesota on April 17, making him 4-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Minnesota (team is 7-4). The Twins picked up Colon after he was waived by Atlanta, where he was 2-8 with an 8.14 ERA. The Twins lost Colon's first three starts (5.87 ERA) but then Colon won 8-4 over Texas on Aug. 4 with a complete game. He followed with seven scoreless innings of a 4-0 win at Milwaukee. He takes the mound 2-1 in five starts with Minnesota (team is 2-3) but his ERA of 4.02 has cut in half his ERA with the Braves. The veteran has 12 career starts against the Indians, going 7-4 with a 3.81 ERA (teams are 8-4). The pick: Minnesota swept a three game series at Cleveland in late June but is 0-7 at home against the Indians this season while getting outscored 48-15. That's in line with how these two teams have performed all season, as the Indians own a better road record than home record and the Twins own a better road record than home mark. What changes here? Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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08-14-17 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 7-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox visited the Bronx for a three-game weekend series with the hated Yankees, beginning on Friday. Boston came to Yankees Stadium on an eight-game winning streak and with a 4 1/2 games lead in the AL East. However, the team's bullpen, which is having an outstanding season, imploded Friday night, allowing a five-run Yankee eighth-inning, as Boston's winning streak was snapped 5-4. The Red Sox recovered nicely though, winning 10-5 on Saturday afternoon and then last night on ESPN, Andrew Benintendi, who hit a pair of three-run HRs on Saturday, drove in the winning run in Sunday's 3-2 win. Boston has now won 10 of its last 11, while opening a 5 1/2-game lead over New York. Benintendi has played a big part in Boston’s surge, going 13-for-27 with four HRs and 11 RBI during a seven-game hitting streak. The Indians make a one-day visit to Fenway Park on Monday, for the makeup of a rained-out game back on August 2. Cleveland took the final three contests of its four-game set in Tampa Bay over the weekend to increase its lead in the AL Central to 4 1.2 games, as new acquisition Jay Bruce (from the Mets) made an immediate impact by going 5-for-12 with three RBI. |
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08-13-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees ended Boston's eight-game winning streak with a five-run 8th inning leading to a comeback 5-4 Friday night victory. However, rookie Andrew Benintendi hit a pair of three-run HRs in Saturday's 10-5 Boston win, giving the Red Sox nine wins in their last 10 and regaining the 4 1/2 game lead in the AL East the team had when this series began Friday night. The rubber match of a three-game series goes Sunday night on ESPN, as Boston looks to increase its lead in the East to 5 1/2 games while New York, which leads the AL wild card race by 2 1/2 games, looks to avoid a fourth straight non-winning series (Yankees are 5-7 in that stretch). The pitching matchup: Chris Sale (14-4 & 2.57 ERA) goes for Boston and the Yanks send rookie Jordan Montgomery (7-6 & 4.05 ERA) to the mound. Sale is coming off a dominating outing in which he struck out 13 while limiting the Tampa Bay Rays to two hits in eight scoreless innings of a 2-0 win this past Tuesday. The AL Cy Young favorite has not allowed an earned run in four of his five starts since the All-Star break and has not suffered a loss since July 6. Sale had no trouble with the New York lineup back on July 15, when he scattered three hits and struck out 13 over 7 2/3 scoreless innings (note: the Yanks won 4-1 in 16 innings). That follows a theme, as although Sale owns a 1.36 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Yanks, his teams are just 4-5! Montgomery made a brief trip to the minors this week but came back when CC Sabathia went on the disabled list and is trying to pick up where he left off after holding the Cleveland Indians to one run and three hits over five innings on Aug. 5. He was hit in the head with a line drive during batting practice on Saturday but went through tests and is expected to make the start. Montgomery was not at his best at Boston on July 14, when he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks in four innings (Boston won 5-4). The pick: I realize Sale comes in on a roll but the Yankees have averaged 5.69 RPG at home. As for Boston, the Red Sox have averaged 6.40 RPG during a 9-1 stretch and I'll make the over a 10* play. |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks will be in Los Angeles Sunday night, as the now-LA Chargers begin a new era in "The City of Angels (AFL fans may remember that the Chargers began in LA back in 1960, before moving to San Diego the in their second season of 1961). The Seahawks won the AFC West at 10-5-1 and reached the divisional round before falling to the eventual NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons. The Chargers hope to turn things around in their new home, after finishing dead last in the AFC West with a 5-11 record in 2016. While the Chargers have been to the playoffs just once in the last seven season, the Seahawks enter the 2017 season having played in the postseason six times over that same seven-year span (two SB appearances, including one win). |
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08-13-17 | BC -2 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-2 BC Lions visit Mosaic Stadium on Sunday to take on the 2-4 Saskatchewan Roughriders. The BC Lions are unbeaten against all CFL teams not named Edmonton, which by the way is a perfect 7-0. Jonathon Jennings began the season as BC's No. 1 QB but was injured in Week 4. Veteran Travis Lulay took over and threw for 436 yards in that Week 4 contest. He's completing 73.7% of his passes and averaging 359.3 YPG while lead the Lions to 35.3 PPG. Defensively, BC is allowing 27.7 points and 397.3 yards per game. The Roughriders have split their last four games, including 30-15 at BC last week. Saskatchewan enters this contest 2-4. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 1,784 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. |
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08-13-17 | Astros -145 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: No team will be able to catch the Houston Astros in the AL West but the Angels, Mariners and Rangers are all still alive in the wild card hunt. The Rangers followed Friday's 6-4 win over the Astros with an 8-3 win Saturday night and have now moved within 2 1/2 games of the AL's second wild card by posting three straight wins. Texas goes for its fourth win in a row, as well as a three-game sweep of the first-place Astros Sunday afternoon in Arlington. Houston has lost the first five of its eight-game road trip and while the Astros still own a 12-game margin tin the division, they have lost 11 of their last 14 games. |
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08-12-17 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles have fought their way back into the wild card discussion in recent weeks but squandered a late lead last night and fell 5-4 in Oakland. and dropped a 5-4 decision. Baltimore missed an opportunity to reach the .500 mark for the season on Friday and now (at 57-59), must win the remaining two of this four-games series with the A's to achieve that mark. The setback was the third in four contests for the Orioles, who are now two games back of the Minnesota Twins in the race for the second wild-card spot in the American League. Oakland staged an eighth-inning rally to halt its three-game slide, earning their first win on their current nine-game homestand (1-3 so far). The A's are going nowhere in 2017, as the team's 51-65 record is better than only the White Sox's 45-68 mark in the American League. The pitching matchup: Dylan Bundy (11-8 & 4.15 ERA) starts for Baltimore and Sean Manaea (8-6 & 4.15 ERA) for Oakland. Bundy recorded a career-high 10 strikeouts over seven innings in Monday's 6-2 win in LA over the Angels. He's allowed just two ERs over his last two starts (15 innings for a 1.20 ERA) but that comes after allowing 19 runs in 20 1/3 innings (8.55 ERA) over his previous four outings. This is Bundy's first-ever start against Oakland. Manaea hasn't won in any of his last four starts (he's 0-1 with a 6.63 ERA and the A's are 1-3). Like Bundy, Manaea will be facing Baltimore for the first time in his brief career. The pick: I played last night's Bal/Oak game under and despite some late bullpen woes, cashed that ticket by a half-run. Tonight's win will come easier. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-12-17 | Titans v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 127 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 1 of the 2-017 NFL preseason continues with three games on Saturday, including the Titans visiting the Jets at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Tennessee is coming off a 9-7 season and while the Titans missed the playoffs for the eight consecutive year, it was Tennessee’s first winning season since 2011. Meanwhile, the Jets stumbled to a 5-11 record in 2016 (last-place in the AFC East) and missed the postseason for the sixth consecutive year. Tennessee: The Titans lost a few notable players in TE Anthony Fasano, G Chance Warmack and WR Kendall Wright but was also busy, signing SS Johnathan Cyprien, G Tim Belito and CB Logan Ryan, while retaining QB Matt Cassel and TE Phillip Supernaw. Tennessee went 3-1 in the preseason last year but stumbled out of the gate in the regular season, losing three of their first four games. However, the Titans recovered to win four of their final five to end up 9-7, tied with the Texans atop the AFC South (Houston won the tie-breaker). If QB Marcus Mariota (3426 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT plus 349 rushing yards and two TDs) been healthy in the final two games, things may have been different. If he can play all 16 games this season, the Titans are in good shape. The running game is in good hands with the tandem of DeMarco Murray (293 carries, 1287 yards, 4 TD, 53 catches, 377 yards, 3 TD) and Derrick Henry (110 carries, 490 yards, TD, 13 cathches, 137 yards). The Titans bolstered their receiving corps via the draft and free agency. In the draft, Tennessee picked WRs Corey Davis in the first round and Taywan Taylor in the third round plus added TE Jonnu Smith with a third round selection. Eric Decker was signed as a FA after the Jets cut him. NY Jets: Head coach Todd Bowles is back for his third year. The Jets were 3-5 at the midway point before losing six of their seven, before a meaningless Week 17 win over to finish 5-11. Gone are QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eric Decker, as well as longtime center Nick Mangold. Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Marcus Gilchrist and Calvin Pryor are gone from the defense. Bowles will oversee a rebuilding process this season but will he be around to see it completed? The QB position will be a three-way battle between grizzled veteran Josh McCown, former second-round pick Christian Hackenberg and former fourth-round pick Bryce Petty. The 'winner' joins aging Matt Forte (218 carries, 813 yards, 7 TD) and Bilal Powell (131 carries, 722 yards, 3 TD, 58 catches, 388 yards, 2 TD) in the backfield. When it comes to the receiving corps, the Jets feature a host of unproven ones. The pick: The Titans have a shot at the 2017 playoffs while the Jets are going nowhere. However, for this meaningless contest, I prefer the Jets who have a real QB 'battle,' while the Titans look forward to the opening of the regular season, as they can't afford to open by losing three of their first four, again. Make the Jets a 10* play. |
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08-12-17 | Royals -153 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Royals were within 1 1/2 games of the AL Central lead as recently as July 26 but they've dropping five straight and 10 of their last 12 after a 6-3 loss in Friday’s series opener at Chicago. Kansas City is now five games back of Cleveland in the AL Central and while te Royals are just 1 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, four teams are ahead of them, plus Baltimore is one back of KC and Texas two games back. The White Sox still own the AL's worst record at 45-68, but Friday's victory gives them four straight wins. |
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08-12-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -155 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox had opened a 4 1/2 game lead over the Yankees entering this weekend's three-game series, on teh strength of an eight-game winning streak (Yanks entered having lost six of nine). Boston held a 3-0 lead going into the eighth inning in Friday's series opener and the Red Sox looked safe, considering they owned the best bullpen (according to ERA) in all of MLB. However, Addison Reed, the latest addition to the relief corps, was charged with four runs without recording an out as the Red Sox bullpen had a 19-inning scoreless streak come to an end,as the team went on to suffer a 5-4 loss. Boston's lead over the Yankees in the American League East was trimmed to 3 1/2 games and the etam's eight-game winning streak was snapped. Maybe the Yanks are pulling out of a funk, as they now own four wins over their last six games, afdter a four-game slide. The series continues this afternoon in the Bronx, as the Yankees still get plenty of head-to-head chances to make up ground in the East with nine more games against the Red Sox. |
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08-11-17 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles opened the 2017 season 22-10 but by the All Star break, were just 42-46. Baltimore returned from the break and lost all three games at home to the Cubs (falling to 42-49) but have since gone 15-9 to climb back in the wild card race. Currently, the Orioles sit just 1 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, although it's a log-jam with six teams within 1 1/2 games of each other vying for ONE spot! The Orioles will attempt to move closer to a wild-card spot tonight in Oakland for the second contest of their four-game series. Baltimore began the series on Thursday with a 7-2 win and the fact that the A's are 50-65 on the season (owners of the AL's second-worst record), has to give Baltimore confidence. |
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08-11-17 | Bucs +2 v. Bengals | Top | 12-23 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 preseason action Friday night from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The Buccaneers are viewed as a team on the rise by many with QB Jameis Winston entering his third season. The Bucs were 6-10 in Winston's rookie season but went 9-7 last year, ending a run of five consecutive losing seasons Cincinnati is led by QB Andy Dalton, coming off a season in which he threw for 4206 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs, although the Bengals missed the playoffs for the first tim e since 2010, going just 6-9-1. Tampa Bay was 2-2 in last year’s preseason, while Cincy posted a 1-3 record. Tampa Bay: Winston threw 28 TD passes in 2016 (up from 22) but his interception total also rose from 15 to 18 (The Bucs need to see that number fall not rise, in 2017). WR Mike Evans is blossoming into an elite pass-catcher, with receptions for 1,321 receiving yards and 12 TDs. DeSean Jackson joins as a FA plus the Bucs also added a few promising receivers in the draft. Tampa Bay’s featured RB Doug Martin will be suspended the first three weeks of the season meaning Jacquizz Rodgers could see a bulk of the carries to start the regular season (Rodgers is an able replacement). The Buccaneers averaged 22.1 PPG (19th) and allowed 23.1 PPG (15th). Both figures need to improve. Cincinnati: When healthy, A.J. Green is one of the NFL's top WRs. The Bengals have depth at RB in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill plus bolstered their running game by drafting the controversial Joe Mixon with their second round pick. Cincinnati's defense showed great improvement as the 2016 season progressed (finished eight overall in scoring D at 19.7 PPG). Has the Bengals' 'playoff window' closed? The offense must average more than the 20.3 PPG of last season (ranked 23rd). The pick: Like most preseason Week 1 games, we will see little from the respective No. 1 QBs for each team, Winston and Dalton. Tampa Bay's backup is veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is good at winning meaningless games. Meanwhile, A.J. McCarron has not played in a regular season game since 2015 plus third stringer Jeff Driskel wasn't much of a college QB. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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08-11-17 | Pirates v. Blue Jays -136 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates have so far had little trouble in this week of interleague contests. The Pirates took three of four in a home-and-home set with the Tigers and now move on to Toronto to wrap up a week of seven IL games with the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Pirates pounded out 13 hits in a 7-5 win over the Tigers on Thursday The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon (6-5 & 4.60 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh and Marcus Stroman (10-5 & 3.17 ERA) for Toronto. After not making it through four innings in either of his previous two starts in which he allowed 17 ERs on 20 hits in 6 2/3 innings (woeful 22.95 ERA), Taillon struck out eight in 6 1/3 innings while allowing two runs on five hits in a win in his last start against San Diego (Pittsburgh would win 5-4 in 12 innings last Sunday). Taillon will be facing Toronto for the first time in his career but note he is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in five career interleague starts. Stroman surrendered 11 hits at Houston on Sunday but limited the damage to two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings without factoring in the decision (Jays lost 7-6). In fact, he has not been part of the decision in four of his last five starts despite surrendering three runs or less in each of those no decisions. Stroman appeared once in relief previously against Pittsburgh (no starts) but is 8-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 14 career interleague games, including 11 starts. The pick: Pittsburgh has won six of its last eight games but will face a tough test here against Stroman. He may have just two wins over his last six starts but he deserves much better, posting a 2.50 ERA. His 8-1 record and 2.38 ERA in IL games speaks volumes and here in 2017, he's 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA in four interleague starts. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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08-10-17 | Dodgers -160 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers lost 6-3 at Chase Field on Tuesday but rebounded last night with a 3-2 victory, becoming the first team to record 80 wins this season. The accolades just keep piling up for this LA team. Los Angeles has won five of its last six contests to improve to 6-2 on its nine-game road trip and became the first team since 1913 to reach the 80-win mark in its first 113 contests. The Dodgers have won 14 of 16 games and 45 of 53. They have won 14 of their past 17 series, splitting the three others. The rubber match of this three-game series goes tonight and LA has not dropped a series since losing two of three to Washington from June 5-7. Arizona has lost three of its last four contests to fall one-half game behind the Rockies for the first NL wild card spot but the D'backs own a 6 1/2-game lead for the second wild card. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (7-9 & 3.81 ERA overall in 2017) will start for LA and Anthony Banda (1-1 & 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for Arizona. Darvish had a brilliant debut with Los Angeles this past Friday, scattering three hits and striking out 10 over seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory over the Mets at Citi Field. It was an enormous turnaround, as he had been battered for 10 runs over 3 2/3 innings of a 22-10 loss to Miami on July 26 in his final outing with Texas before being traded five days later. Darvish has made two career starts against Arizona, going 1-0 while allowing four runs (2.45 ERA) and recording 28 strikeouts over just 14 2/3 innings (Rangers were 1-1). Banda is coming off a 2-1 triumph at San Francisco on Friday in which he gave up one run and three hits over six innings in his second major-league start. Banda will be facing Los Angeles for the first time and has posted a 7-6 record and 5.13 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A this season. The pick: The contrast on the mound could not be much greater, as Banda makes his third career start and one can hardly be impressed by his 5.13 ERA in Triple-A in 2017. Meanwhile, Darvish is a No. 1 starter on most teams (he'll be No. 2 for LA when Kershaw returns) and rose to the occasion in his first start for LA. Expect another quality outing here and that LA lineup will teach Banda a thing or two. Make the Dodgers a 10* play. |
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08-10-17 | Saints v. Browns OVER 37.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Saints face off against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night at Cleveland in Week 1 NFL preseason action. Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have owned one of the NFL's best passing offenses for more than a decade. However, the Saints have added RB Adrian Peterson and for the first time, A.P. will dress in gold and black. As for the Browns, they will enter the 2017 season off a 1-15 season last year, the team's ninth consecutive losing one. The Browns have averaged a modest 4.2 wins per season in that nine-year run and also take a 14-season playoff drought into 2017. New Orleans: The Saints continue to rely on the ageless Drew Brees, who completed 70.0 percent of his passes for 5,208 yards with 37 TDs and just 15 interceptions in 673 throws at age 37 last season. Brandin Cooks was traded to the New England Patriots but the Saints still have Michael Thomas (92 catches for 1,137 yards and nine TDs as a rookie last season) and Willie Snead (72 catches, 895 yards, 4 TDs) plus free agent acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. (he'll love Brees!). New Orleans finished 7-9 last season, as while they were the NFL's second-highest scoring team (29.3 PPG), the Sainst also allowed 28.4 PPG (31 of 32 teams). New Orleans gave up at least 34 points in six games last season. Cleveland: The Browns bumbled their way to a 1-15 mark last season, giving them the top pick in the NFL Draft. They selected DE Myles Garrett from Texas A&M. The Browns also went out and picked up the versatile Jabrill Peppers from Michigan along with TE David Njoku from Miami (FL) in the first round. However, the Browns still have plenty of question marks to address, as they finished next to last in the league in scoring offense (16.5 PPG) and third-worst in scoring defense (28.3 PPG) in 2016. Cleveland didn’t score more than 28 points in a game last season while allowing at least 30 points on seven occasions. The pick: No position has been seen greater turmoil in Cleveland than at QB. Cody Kessler (128 of 195, 1380 yards, six TD, two INT, 0-8 as a starter) is the de facto #1 on the depth chart but Cleveland also picked up Brock Osweiler (301 of 510, 2957 yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs for Houston) in a salary dump deal that netted the Browns a pair of picks and drafted DeShone Kizer from Notre Dame in the second round. Osweiler will get the start in this one but expect to see all three. Plenty of players will see action tonight but it's hard to see how either team will have much trouble putting points on the board. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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08-10-17 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals elected to 'stay pat' at the non-waiver trade deadline and all of a sudden, have surged into contention in the NL Central. The Cardinals go for a four-game sweep of their I-70 Series with the Royals Thursday night, while looking to make it six wins in a row, overall. The Cardinals outscored the Royals 21-6 in two wins at Kansas City to open the series, then won 8-5 last night back in St. Louis. The Cards are now 58-56 (in a virtual tie with the 59-57 Brewers) and have inched within 1 1/2 games of the first-place Cubs. Meanwhile, the Royals have dropped five of their last six to fall four games behind first-place Cleveland in the AL Central and one back of Seattle for the second wild-card spot The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (5-9 & 4.73 ERA) takes the mound for KC and Lance Lynn (10-6 & 3.12 ERA) for StL. Hammel has recorded quality starts in each of his last two outings and four of his last six but it's been a looong year for him, as the Royals are 7-15 in his 2017 starts (minus-$658). Hammel is 4-6 with a 5.69 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 5-8). Lynn enters on a roll, having gone 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his last six starts and has allowed more than one run only once during that stretch (Cards are 5-1). Lynn has made just three career starts against the Royals, without much success (6.38 ERA). The pick: The Cards are looking for a season-high sixth straight win and come in swinging the bats very well, averaging 9.2 RPG in their five consecutive wins. No reason to expect Hammel to slow them down here and while Lynn is "on a roll," his 6.38 career ERA against the Royals make me say Over in this one (8* play). |
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08-10-17 | Vikings v. Bills | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings had 'tongues wagging' by opening teh 2016 season 5-0 SU & ATS. However, after a Week 6 bye, the Vikings lost their mojo, losing four in a row SU & ATS. The team never recovered, losing eight of its final 11 games to finish teh season 8-8 (9-7 ATS). Minnesota is out to prove its hot start wasn’t a fluke and that the Vikings can challenge the Packers for the division title (we'll see). The Bills gave up on Rex Ryan and would finish 7-9, extending to 17 seasons, the NFL's longest playoff drought. The Bills have employed nine different head coaches during their playoff drought and I wish Sean McDermott "the best of luck," as he's been named the 20th head coach in team history. Minnesota: It’s a new era in Minnesota, as Adrian Peterson is no longer roaming the backfield. The Vikings will feature Jerick McKinnon, rookie Dalvin Cook, Bishop Sankey and Terrell Newby running behind fullback C.J. Ham. QB Sam Bradford completed 71.6 percent of his passes last season with 20 TDs and just five INTs but rarely threw downfield. That has to change. Buffalo: Tyrod Taylor is entering his third season as Buffalo’s starting QB and he has passed for more than 3,000 yards in each of the past two years and has 37 TD passes against just 12 interceptions during that span, yet most feel he isn't truly Buffalo's answer at the position. Buffalo was a force on the ground last season as LeSean McCoy had a bounce back season (1,267 yards / 5.4 YPC / 13 TDs) behind an excellent OL. However, the he oft-injured Sammy Watkins remains a big question mark at WR. The pick: Word is that he Vikings are doing the best they can to avoid preseason injuries but one can't ignore that they have played to win these relatively meaningless contests. Minnesota went undefeated in the preseason in 2016 and is 12-1 SU in its last 13 preseason outings dating back to 2013. Make the Vikings an 8* play. |
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08-10-17 | Pirates -143 v. Tigers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers managed just three runs in two losses at Pittsburgh (Monday and Tuesday) against the Pirates but pounded out 14 hits in Wednesday 10-0 win at Comerica Park last night. Justin Verlander rolled back the clock (8 IP / 1 hit / 0 runs) and now Detroit will look to earn a sweep of the home portion of its four-game, home-and-home interleague set with Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon. The 52-61 Tigers aren't much of a threat to play this postseason, as they sit six games out of the final wild card spot in the AL, with EIGHT teams ahead of them. As for the 56-58 Pirates, they still remain in striking distance in the NL Central, a mere 3 1/2 games back of the Cubs. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (9-8 & 4.00 ERA) will take the hill for Pittsburgh and Drew VerHagen (0-1 & 5.00 ERA) for Detroit. Cole turned in his sixth straight quality start this past Saturday against San Diego but suffered his first loss in that span while allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks in six innings of a 5-2 Padres win. The former No. 1 overall pick had surrendered a total of eight ER in 32 innings over his previous five starts (2.25 ERA with Cole going 3-0 and Pittsburgh 5-0). Cole is 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 career interleague starts, including 1-1 with a 2.41 mark in three starts against Detroit (Pirates are 2-1). VerHagen, who made 40 relief appearances from 2014-2016, is getting a second chance to start after allowing two runs on four hits in five innings without factoring in the decision at Baltimore on Saturday (Orioles won 5-2). He made two appearances out of the bullpen after being recalled in July and surrendered a total of three runs in four innings in that role. VerHagen went 7-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A Toledo before being recalled. The pick: Cole will be making his 24th start this season, three more than he had during his injury-marred 2016 campaign."It's been nice to be healthy and contribute," Cole said. "That's our goal here, so it's been fortunate to be given this opportunity. I've just got to keep plugging away at it." One could easily argue that he's become Pittsburgh's ace, as he's 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA over his last 10 starts (Pirates are 8-2). Cole and Pittsburgh are the bet (8*). |
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08-09-17 | Dodgers -117 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers are wrapping up a nine-game road trip with a three-game series in Arizona against the D'backs. Arizona posted a 6-3 triumph in Tuesday's opener, snapping LaAs string of four straight victories and dropping the Dodgers to 5-2 on their nine-game trip. The 64-48 Diamondbacks won't be catching the Dodgers this season (are 15 games back) but for a team which went 69-93 in 2016, Arizona has to be pretty satisfied with its performance in 2017. Arizona currently holds down the No. 1 wild card spot in the NL (just a half-game up on Colorado) and is 6 1/2 games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line.' The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (13-1 & 2.33 ERA) continues his "career year" for LA when he takes the mound tonight against Zack Greinke (13-4 & 3.10 ERA), who spurned the Dodgers by signing a FA deal with the D'backs after the 2015 season. Wood suffered his only loss of the season on July 21 vs. the Braves but has rebounded with back-to-back wins, including a 7-4 triumph in Atlanta last Thursday in which he allowed one run over six innings. Wood is 3-3 with a 3.46 ERA in seven career starts against Arizona (teams are 3-4). Greinke managed to extend his unbeaten streak to seven starts on Thursday, as he escaped Chicago with a no-decision after being ripped by the Cubs for six runs on nine hits over six innings. He has gone 5-0 since suffering his last loss on June 20, with the D'backs going 6-1. Greinke recorded 51 wins with Los Angeles from 2013-15 but fell to 3-3 lifetime against the Dodgers in eight starts (teams are 5-3), after giving up five runs on 10 hits and three walks over five innings of a road loss on April 14 of this season. The pick: Greinke is 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA in 12 starts at home this season (D'backs are 11-1) but note that he owns a 5.60 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers since leaving them to sign with the D'backs. Wood owns a 1.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight road starts this year and in case you haven't heard, he pitches for MLB's best team. Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |