Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-23 | Illinois State +4 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is the first of four first round matchups in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (aka “Arch Madness”) in St. Louis on Thursday. Note the early tip time of 1 PM ET.
I like Illinois State here in a battle of struggling teams. The Redbirds just snapped an 0-6 SU/ATS losing streak by routing Evansville 72-53 in the regular season finale. Northern Iowa has just one SU win over its last nine games, so they are hardly an ideal favorite.
That one win for UNI came at Missouri State on 2/18 and was by just three points. Going back to mid-January, the Panthers have just two wins by more than three points.
This is a double revenge spot for Illinois State, who lost both regular season matchups to UNI. But both games were close and decided by a total of just eight points. Actually, the revenge angle runs even deeper as ISU has lost NINE straight times to UNI, including two MVC Tourney exits. So you can bet the underdogs will be motivated coming into this one. Northern Iowa is 4-12 ATS if they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They lost 83-75 to Belmont on Sunday. Take the points. 8* |
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03-01-23 | Hurricanes -130 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Carolina suffered a no-rest road loss vs the Ducks last time out. They are still on the road, but have had 4 days off. The 'Canes are a very good road team this year, facing the Knights who are less effective at home. Carolina sports the second best defense and fifth-ranked PK, combined with a top nine offense. The Knights are good on defense (10th, 2.8 GA), poor on the PK, and only average on offense this season. They managed 0 goals against a stiff Colorado D last time out, and the Hurricanes are a definite step up from the Avs. The 'Canes are 8-2 lately, allowing just a minuscule 10 goals in those wins. Andersen had an off-game in the loss to the Ducks, but his previous three starts were superb. These two teams don't play each other often, but when they do it has been the 'Canes on top. I expect the same sort of result on Wednesday. Take the Hurricanes, rested and reset after that embarrassing Ducks loss, to steal this one on the road. |
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03-01-23 | Southern Indiana +2.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | Top | 54-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The OVC is down this year after losing the likes of Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay to the Missouri Valley and ASUN. Regular season champ Morehead State was incredibly lucky this season (#1 luck rating at KenPom), so I think this Tourney is pretty wide open. The second of two first round games Wednesday (the whole tournament is played in Evansville) pits Southern Indiana against SIU Edwardsville. These teams split their regular season series, each winning on the other’s floor. Neither has fared well at the betting window recently. Southern Indiana is 2-10 ATS L12 games. SIUE is 2-11 ATS L13. Southern Indiana transitioned into Division I this season and proved a lot of doubters wrong by posting a winning overall record (16-15 SU). The Screaming Eagles are the OVC’s third highest scoring team and second best three-point shooting team. They have four double digit scorers plus the conference’s leading rebounder (Polakovich). Plus there’s a bit of a edge to Southern Indiana, whose campus is just 13 miles from where this tournament is being played. SIU Edwardsville stumbled down the stretch, losing four straight before a 93-78 win over SEMO on Saturday. The line has already moved against the Cougars and I agree with that. Take the points. 8* |
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03-01-23 | 76ers -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 119-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The 76ers look to avenge a 101-99 loss to the Heat tonight. That two-point setback took place on Monday and was the Sixers second straight defeat. But prior to that, they’d won and covered five in a row. On the flip side, Miami was 0-4 SU/ATS its previous four games before beating Philly. The Heat are 4-12 ATS L16 games and haven’t covered two in a row since early January.
So I like the road team, playing with revenge, laying a short number. Miami has been terrible ATS at home this year, going 8-19-2.
It was a tough spot for Philadelphia on Monday, coming off another close loss at home (to Boston) on Saturday. The Sixers ended up turning the ball over 18 times and ended up trailing the Heat by as many as 11 points. But despite all that - and missing several layups in the second half - the Sixers still had a chance to win at the end of regulation when James Harden’s three-point try bounced off the back of the rim.
Neither Bam Adebayo nor Tyler Herro played particularly well for the Heat Monday, but they still had five players finish in double figures. Adebayo figures to struggle again here as he’s got the tough assignment of dealing with Joel Embiid. The Heat normally don’t shoot well from three (just 33.3% for the season) but were 15 of 37 on Monday. I don’t see a repeat of that shooting tonight. Philadelphia hasn’t dropped three in a row since early December. With so many road games looming and seeding on the line, I can’t see them losing this game. They are 18-7 ATS in revenge spots this season. 10* |
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03-01-23 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame +5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
As I wrote about yesterday, the ACC is way down this season. This has resulted in a team like Pittsburgh, picked to finish 14th in the preseason poll, currently topping the conference standings. The Panthers come into Tuesday ranked #25 in the country but I could probably name 50 teams that would be favored over them on a neutral court. Notre Dame isn’t one of them, but it does “speak volumes” that this line is so low (even in South Bend) considering the Fighting Irish are just 10-19 SU on the year and have lost seven in a row (and 11 of 12). For many years, Notre Dame had a tremendous home court edge at the Purcell Pavilion (Joyce Center). All 10 of their wins this season have come here and tonight marks HC Mike Brey’s final home game. Brey is stepping down after 23 years at the helm. It figures to be an emotional environment tonight. The Fighting Irish are hoping to get back a couple of key players (Starling and Hammond) for tonight as they were really short handed against Wake Forest on Saturday. Still, I like them getting points in this situation. Each of the L6 games have seen the Irish lose by eight points or less, four of those by four points or less. Plus, I think Pitt is completely overrated at the moment. 10* |
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02-28-23 | Islanders v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
The 25th and 26th ranked offense meet up when the Wild host the Islanders on Tuesday. The two teams sport top ten defenses and PKs, so goals may be scarce. It has been three straight unders for the Islanders who are missing their main scorer in Barzal. Minnesota has gone under the total in eight of nine games The Wild are just a very defense-driven club. Minnesota's Gustavsson held the Leafs to two goals in his last appearance, and has held the opposition to two or less goals in six of seven games. The Isles net-minder Sorokin has allowed just 2.4 goals a game this year, and has a .937 save % in his last five games. Look for the Isles and Wild to do what they do best and keep the puck out of the net on Tuesday. I'm wagering on another Under. |
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02-28-23 | Bulls v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 98-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Chicago went into the All Star Break as losers of six in a row and they failed to cover the number in all six defeats. But it’s been a much different team coming out of the Break as the Bulls have soundly beaten both the Nets (131-87) and Wizards (102-82).
Tonight, they go North of the Border to face Toronto, who is coming off a 25-point loss in Cleveland. I think this is a good time to sell high on the Bulls while simultaneously buying low on the Raptors (who are 4-1 ATS coming off a double digit loss).
Toronto is 19-13 SU at home this season. Chicago is just 10-20 SU on the road. The last time the Bulls won a road game was January 28th in Orlando. Excluding a win over in Europe, that is the Bulls’ only road win since January 6th!
The Raptors went 4-1 SU/ATS on a recent homestand, before going 0-2 ATS at Detroit and Cleveland (did win the Detroit game, straight up). Overall, this team has won seven of nine. They are 8-3 ATS L11 at home. After shooting over 50% at home each of the last two games, the Bulls are likely due for some shooting regression tonight. Washington also shot horribly against them on Sunday. Coming off back to back sub-100 point games, you’ve got to think Toronto is due for some positive regression at the offensive end. 10* |
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02-28-23 | NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The ACC is way down this year. Not a single team from the conference is currently in the KenPom Top 25. That speaks volumes.
Who is the best team in the ACC right now? Most would say Virginia, but they’ve lost two in a row and before that only beat Notre Dame by two and Louisville by three. The answer to the question may be … Duke.
The Blue Devils have won four straight and seven of nine. One of those two losses, at Virginia in overtime, they definitely should have won.
One game that Jon Scheyer’s team certainly did NOT deserve to win was January 4th at NC State when they were soundly beaten 84-60 as 4.5-point road favorites. But you’d have to go back almost 30 seasons (to 1994-95) to find the last time NC State swept Duke in a season series. Look for Duke to avenge that loss from January tonight in the final home game of the season. The Blue Devils have been bet up to 7-point favorites as of this writing, but I still like them to cover. NC State just lost by 25 at home to Clemson on Saturday, which says a lot about their squad. Duke turned it over a lot (21 times) in the first meeting, which won’t happen again tonight. They are undefeated at home (15-0) this season, winning by an average of 16.7 points/game. NC State has lost 20 straight times here in Durham and is just 6-14 SU overall vs. Duke the L20 meetings. Lay the points. 10* |
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02-28-23 | Green Bay +21.5 v. Wright State | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is an ugly matchup for my first conference tourney play, but I’m showing solid value on Green Bay tonight at Wright State in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament.
This game is being played at Wright State, but it’s just way too many points to lay in this situation, even if Green Bay is 3-28 this year. Wright State is coming off a tough four-game road trip where they won only once, that being Saturday at Detroit - by 11 points.
Now the Raiders did destroy Green Bay in both regular season meetings, winning by 32 and 31 points. But that can lead to a sense of overconfidence. They (Wright State) may already be thinking about Milwaukee, who would be their quarterfinal opponent (assuming they win here).
Conference tournaments give new life to teams, even those who had poor regular seasons like Green Bay. The Phoenix are basically playing with “house money” tonight. They have lost by more than 17 only once since the second meeting with Wright State. That was at Horizon League regular season champ Youngstown State. Wright State is 3-13 ATS the L16 home games following three or more consecutive road games. This is the most points the Raiders have been asked to lay in any game this season. 10* |
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02-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Avs and Knights both have top ten defenses and middling offenses this year. Vegas plays a tight-checking game on the road with great success. They are 17-5 away, and nine of their last ten road games have gone under the total. Meantime the Avs have limited the opposition to under 2 goals in 4 of 5 games. Georgiev has a save % of .960+ in his last two starts. Hill hasn't played in some days, but he has been very good this season. The two teams don't usually produce much offense when they meet. If I had to pick a final score based on their history, I'd jump on 3-2. With a total of six available, I am wagering on the the Avalanche and Golden Knights to go under the total. |
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02-27-23 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
It’s not been a good start to the second half of the NBA regular season from the New Orleans Pelicans, who have dropped two games, 115-110 at Toronto and then 128-106 at New York.
But the Pelicans should at least be thrilled tonight to be back at home, where they have not played in 17 days. Their next three games are also all out on the road.
It was a dismal shooting performance against the Knicks, especially from three (2 of 19). Speaking of dismal shooting performances, the Orlando Magic shot just 38.9% from the field and 20.7% on threes in their loss Saturday to the Indiana Pacers (121-108).
I anticipate we’re going to see better shooting from both teams here on Monday, particularly from three. New Orleans has scored less than its season average of 114.7 points/game in five straight, so they are definitely due some positive regression. I can’t see a sixth straight game with 110 points or fewer. The Pelicans are shooting 37.3% from three at home this season. Orlando is 16-6 to the Over in non-conference games this year. Those games have averaged 231.3 points. The Magic are also due some positive regression when it comes to their shooting as they’ve been below their season average in points four of the last five games. Take the Over here. |
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02-27-23 | Morgan State +8.5 v. Maryland-Eastern Shore | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
For a second time in three days, I’m looking to fade Maryland Eastern Shore. It didn’t work out Saturday as the Hawks ended up bludgeoning Coppin State 78-57 on the road. But this is a much tougher opponent that UMES is facing Monday.
After winning seven in a row from January 9th to February 2nd, UMES has dropped three of five overall. This includes a pair of losses here at home, to Norfolk State and NC Central, who are probably the best two teams in the MEAC this year.
UMES was an underdog in both of those losses. That’s obviously NOT the case here. While the Hawks have been profitable as chalk in 2022-23, it’s not often you see them laying this many points. Tonight will mark just the fourth time all season that they’ve been favored by six or more. Only once were they favored by eight or more and they did not cover the spread that time (beat Delaware State 68-66 as an 11.5-point favorite).
Morgan State is coming off back to back wins, both at home, over Howard and Delaware State. Howard is the co-leader in the MEAC right now. Both games saw the Bears score more than 80 points. They shot the lights out Saturday vs. Delaware State, making 58.9% of their FG attempts including 9 of 15 from three.
This is a revenge game for Morgan State, who lost at home to UMES by 14 back in January. It was a one-point game at half, but the Bears ended up going just 4 of 18 from three in that one. I expect better shooting tonight (maybe not as good as Sunday) and them to stay inside a generous number. Take the points. 10* |
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02-26-23 | Capitals v. Sabres -109 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The Sabres have won 4 of 5 games, beating the Panthers on Friday. The Capitals, with Ovechkin returning, beat the Rangers on Saturday, but must play on the road on Sunday morning. That win was the Capitals' first in 7 games. The Sabres have improved on defense over the season, but are still a very offense-driven team with the 3rd best goals against and a top 5 PP. The Capitals scored 6 goals against the Rangers but that has not at all been the norm. In their previous six games, the Caps' 21st ranked offense as been underachieving if anything. Buffalo beat the Capitals last time they met. Sunday morning will come around very quickly for an aging Capitals team. I will take the better and fresher Sabres to win at home. |
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02-26-23 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 88-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
I like Georgetown today as a good old fashioned contrarian home dog. This line has moved in the Hoyas’ direction despite Providence taking the majority of the bets, likely a sign of “sharp money” taking the points. I’m also not a huge believer in this Providence team.
The Friars just lost on Wednesday, 87-69 at UConn. All eight of their losses this second have come on the road. There’s obviously a big difference between UConn and Georgetown, but there’s also a difference between getting and laying 7.5 points.
Unranked home dogs of +8.5 or less vs. ranked opponents are 58-37 ATS (61%) this season.
Despite their paltry SU record, G’town has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games. Providence has lost three straight and five of six on the road. 10* |
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02-25-23 | Bruins -1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The Big Bad Bruins are 0-4 when playing in Vancouver, and I imagine that bugs them. The Canucks fans hate the Bruins for age-old reasons, from way back when Vancouver was something other than a laughing stock. The Canucks play one of their three overwhelmed fill-in net minders, probably Delia. The Bruins counter with Ullmark (1.88, .937 SV %), not to mention their 2nd ranked offense and top defense against the league's worst power play and 31st ranked defense. Take the Bruins on the puck line, at - 1 1/2. Great odds available.. |
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02-25-23 | Norfolk State v. South Carolina State +8.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
South Carolina State may have only five wins this season, but I think they are a live dog in this spot, hosting Norfolk State.
Norfolk State, who just had a six-game win streak ended Monday, has two big upcoming games after this. Both are on the road, against Howard and NC Central. Those will determine who finishes first in the MEAC.
The Spartans may have already been looking ahead when they lost outright at Coppin State Monday. They were 16-point home favorites for that game.
While 15-3 SU as a favorite this season, Norfolk State is just 8-8 against the spread. South Carolina State has won its last two home games and they are off a one-point loss at Delaware State. When they lost by 15 at Norfolk State earlier this year, the Bulldogs shot just 40.7% overall. Norfolk State was 53% overall and 53% from three! They won’t shoot as well this time. Take the points. 8* |
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02-25-23 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 78-57 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Not only will I fade Norfolk State on Saturday, I’m taking the team that just upset them on Monday, Coppin State, who is at home here facing MD Eastern Shore.
Coppin State was 0-9 SU/ATS its L9 games before shocking Norfolk State Monday. But I like the idea of grabbing points with them at home, off a win. The Eagles should finally have a bit of confidence here.
MD East Shore has lost three of four, so it’s not like they have much confidence. They aren’t road favorites very often. They are 5-9 SU on the road, getting outscored by 9.1 points/game this season.
The first meeting between these teams was a 19-point win for MDES. But they shot the lights out at home. On the road, they shoot just 39.3% and average only 62.2 PPG. The line closed -6.5 in that first meeting, so I’m showing value on the home team getting points in the rematch. 8* |
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02-25-23 | Texas v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
Following back to back double digit losses on the road, I am expecting Baylor to show up in a major way Saturday afternoon when it hosts Texas. Those back to back losses came at Kansas and Kansas State, and there’s really little shame in losing to two Top 25 teams on the road. Case in point; Texas has dropped four of its last six road games. This is a revenge game for Baylor as well. They lost 76-71 in Austin on January 30th. But they were without Langston Love and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua in that game, plus they shot just 8 of 26 from three. This is only the second time all year that Baylor has dropped two in a row. On the previous occasion, they went to West Virginia and won. Before the loss on 1/30, Baylor had won and covered the last six meetings with Texas. 8* |
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02-24-23 | Nevada v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 60-56 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I like the spot for Fresno State, even without Isaih Moore, in what will be their final conference home game of the season.
The Bulldogs just beat Air Force on the road, 74-69, as a 2.5-point underdog.
Nevada has won five of six, but their only loss was on the road (at Utah State) and the only other away game in that stretch was a one-point win. All seven Wolf Pack losses this year have come on the road (they are 14-0 in Reno).
The Wolf Pack have done remarkably well as a favorite this year. But they were actually down at the half at home to San Jose State Tuesday. This is a quick revenge spot for the home dog, who lost by 11 in Reno two weeks ago. Nevada shot very well in that game - 54.5% overall and 50% from three - percentages they will not match here. Take the points. 8* |
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02-24-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219 | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Miami won the Eastern Conference in 2020 while Milwaukee did it in 2021. This year, both teams enter the second half staring up at last season’s EC Champs, Boston. But, heading into the All-Star Break, nobody was hotter than Milwaukee, who has won 12 straight games to move within a game of the top spot in the Conference. Miami is 7th, 10.5 games back of top.
I expect this to be a lot lower-scoring than when these teams played three weeks ago. The final score was Bucks 123 Heat 115.
There could be some rust coming out of the ASB for both teams. Miami is averaging only 108.3 points/game this season.
Both teams are top four in the league in defensive efficiency (Milwaukee 3rd, Miami 4th). But the real key is Giannis being doubtful. Without him, the Bucks’ offensive efficiency drops way off. Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton are also both out. Miami also likes to play slow. They are 28th in pace. 10* |
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02-24-23 | Wild v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
The 6-4 Leafs are tough to beat at home with a superlative 22-6 record. They'll be home to the Wild who won against the Blue Jackets last night. It is the third game in four nights for the Wild. They've won four straight but do struggle when away, just 1-4 in recent road-work. The Wild have allowed just 5 goals in that winning streak, but have scored just 10. That is the story of the Wild this season; limited scoring and limited goals allowed. Gustavvson is in net for the Wild tomorrow. He has been super-sharp lately, with a .944 save % since the All-star break. The Leafs are just as good on defense, but with a much more potent offense. The Under has been the name of the game when these two teams meet in Toronto and when Minnesota is playing on short rest. Gustavvson has had such a hot hand that I think this game will go true to form. Take the Wild and Leafs to go under on Friday. |
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02-24-23 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +3.5 | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Old Dominion just upset Southern Miss, 69-64, here at home as a 2-point dog. It was the Monarchs second straight win as a dog after also defeating Appalachian State on the road, 74-63 (+3).
Now it’s time to host another of the Sun Belt’s best, Marshall, who is tied with Southern Miss for first place coming into the final game of the regular season. I think ODU pulls the upset again.
Marshall has won five straight, but the line is moving in the other direction as Old Dominion is now 11-4 SU at home where it gives up just 62.4 points/game.
This is Marshall’s second road game in three days. Defensively, the Thundering Herd are just not very good as they’ve let five of their last six opponents score 77 or more points. Now Marshall can definitely score, but look for ODU to slow down the tempo. 10* |
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02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights -136 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
the Flames knocked off the Coyotes on Wednesday, but are back to back and on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. Just 4-6 L10, and 12-9 on the road, they'll face a Knights team that has won 5 of 6 games since the break. The Knights were embarrassed by the lowly Black Hawks last time out, so are a fine candidate for a rebound win. Vegas has held most teams to 2 goals or less lately. The Flames broke out in the third period against the Coyotes, but have otherwise had trouble holding a lead. They are 1-6 when playing the third game in four nights and 0-7 when playing in Vegas. The Knights are healthier lately, and have an edge in all categories other than PK. You can add the Knights' extra days rest and the Flames lack of success in Vegas, leading me to take the Golden Knights to bounce back at home on Thursday. |
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02-23-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -1.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This season has turned into a disaster for Ohio State, who has won just once in their last 14 games! Even worse is that the Buckeyes are also 1-13 ATS in this stretch. Their only win came against Iowa, 93-77 here in Columbus back on January 21st. Since then, they are 0-8 SU/ATS.
But I still like OSU tonight laying a short number at home vs. Penn State, who is just 2-7 on the road. One of those two road wins came last time out against last place Minnesota. I just don’t see the Nittany Lions winning two straight on the road.
Big 10 home favorites are 64-19 SU at home this season. This is the ultimate “buy low” spot on Ohio State after they were humiliated by Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue the L3 games. Two of those were on the road. They are 8-5 SU at home.
Penn State is also just 2-8 SU as an underdog. Per KenPom, Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country this season and they still have a Top 30 offense. I’m rolling the dice and taking them. 10* |
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02-22-23 | Flames v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
By the numbers, Calgary should beat the Coyotes on Wednesday, but the 4-6 Flames are struggling, barely over .500 on the road, and 0-5 in recent games against sub-par teams. The Coyotes have been surprisingly good at home and winners of 3 of 4 games. Arizona has been very competitive in most games lately; 7 of 8 contests have been decided by one goal with 6 going to OT. The Flames have also had 5 of 6 one goal games. |
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02-22-23 | The Citadel +7 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
East Tennessee State just can’t cover the number at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 ATS at home this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the country.
The last time ETSU played at home, they only managed to beat lowly VMI by four points. Since then, they’ve played two tough road games, losing both by a combined six points.
Now The Citadel has just one win in its last eight games. But the Bulldogs have remained competitive during that stretch, losing four times by six points or fewer.
This matchup is all about wanting to take the points, no matter who is favored. In this case, ETSU is 2-10 ATS when laying points this season. A big revenge spot here for The Citadel, who lost by 22 at home to ETSU earlier in the year. ETSU won’t shoot that well again. As a conference fave, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS with four outright losses. 10* |
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02-21-23 | Red Wings +140 v. Capitals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 140 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The Red Wings lost their last game of a Western swing but won the previous five. In those games, the Wings outscored their opponents 25 -12. Still on the road, but with an extra day's rest, they'll play the 3-7 Capitals, who are still missing Ovechkin and have a hefty injury list. The Capitals have scored just nine goals in their last five games, more than a goal less than their season's average. It appears that the Caps are a poor bet until the Captain is back. Detroit's net-minder Husso wasn't terrific against the Kraken last time out, but that as not been the norm. His save % over the last six games is a heady .930. Washington's goalie, Kuemper, has been very steady this year but did give up 11 goals in his last 3 games. The Red Wings are a sizable underdog on Tuesday, but doing the math, I am all in on the Wings winning. |
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02-21-23 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Western Michigan just ended a nine-game losing streak on Saturday by upsetting Ball State on the road, 78-68 as 7.5 point underdogs. Truly remarkable is that the Broncos had failed to cover the number in their previous eight games.
So not only has WMU been losing, they’ve generally been getting blown out. But I like them here, getting points, against an Eastern Michigan team that is unaccustomed to being a favorite.
EMU has a 6-21 straight up record, one game worse than WMU. The last time the Eagles were favored was January 21st when they lost here at home to Northern Illinois by 21 points.
In fact, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU and ATS as favorites this season.
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02-21-23 | Baylor -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I’m going to come out and say that I think Kansas State has been a huge overachiever this season. My thinking is the Wildcats will be a good team to fade down the stretch.
Over their last 11 games, K-State is only 5-6 SU. Every time they’ve lost, they’ve been an underdog (as they are here).
Baylor is off an 87-71 loss at Kansas, but before that the Bears had won and covered four straight, not to mention were 10-1 SU their last 11 games.
Big 12 road favorites are 15-7 this season. Across the country, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite has gone 46-35 ATS this season. I just simply think Baylor is the better team here. They come in with revenge for a two-point, overtime loss in Waco back on January 7th where they were 7.5 point home favorites. 10* |
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02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU -2 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Gonna fade Kansas here, off their 87-71 beatdown of Baylor over the weekend. That was the fourth straight win and cover by the Jayhawks (also 6-1 SU/ATS L7) and as a result they’re only a short underdog for Big Monday in Fort Worth.
TCU got its best player (Mike Miles) back Saturday against Oklahoma State and delivered a vicious 100-75 beatdown on Oklahoma State. That put an end to a four-game SU/ATS losing streak for the Horned Frogs. All those losses occurred with Miles out of the lineup.
Miles led the way with 15 points Saturday. Five other TCU players finished in double figures. This is just a much better team with Miles in the lineup.
Kansas knows that as they were crushed 83-60 (in Lawrence!) a Miles-led TCU squad last month. I expect the Jayhawks to play better tonight, but it still won’t be enough to win. TCU is 12-3 SU at home this season and 10-5 ATS. Big 12 home favorites have cleaned up in general, going 43-14 SU. Lay the short number. 10* |
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02-20-23 | Jets v. Rangers -160 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -160 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
The Rangers lost last time out, breaking a seven game win streak. They are back home on Monday and will have an extra day's rest over the the opposition. The Rangers are a good home team this season and have really hit their stride lately, especially on offense. The visiting 5-5 Jets are on a back to back, and are experiencing something of a scoring drought, managing just 6 goals in their last three games. Both teams are top ten in defense; the Jets have the better penalty kill, but the Rangers have a decided advantage on offense and Power Play. Even including their solitary 3-2 loss to the Flames, the Jets have averaged just under five goals scored in their last eight games. The Jets aren't the best road team, and will get no breaks on offense with Shesterkin in net. Rittich will be in goal for Winnipeg; he's has been solid for the Jets as a back up, but he isn't Hellebuyck. At home and with better rest, this looks like yet another victory for the Rangers. Take New York to win outright. |
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02-19-23 | Oregon v. Washington State -1 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Two teams headed in opposite directions here. Washington State has won its last two games, both at home, 56-51 over Washington and 80-62 over Oregon State. The Cougars were favored in both wins, but only covered the last one. Oregon has lost two straight, one to the same Washington team that Wazzu just beat. The Ducks were 5.5 point favorites in Seattle Thursday, but lost 72-71 in overtime. That was after losing 70-63 at home to UCLA last week. Coming off an overtime loss is tough, especially when you’re only 3-5 on the road like the Ducks are. We’ve already seen Wazzu take money here and they are now a 1-point favorite. The Cougars are 9-3 straight up in Pullman this season. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost by 14 in Eugene way back in December. Wazzu could also be getting some players back Sunday, including Adrame Diongue. 10* |
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02-19-23 | Blues v. Senators -165 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
The Blues, now minus their captain and their former top scorer, were roughed up by the Avs last night. They'll travel to Ottawa to meet the 6-2 Senators in a back to back situation. Losing O'Reilly will be a serious blow, and they also have a couple of key injuries tonight. St. Louis is three games under .500 as a road team, and have lost their last three straight away games. |
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02-19-23 | Niagara -1.5 v. Marist | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Not only did both Niagara and Marist each lose on Friday, but they are on losing streaks entering this game. Niagara has lost two straight while Marist has lost three in a row. I expect the road team to get the victory in this one. Niagara fell 70-66 at Mount St. Mary’s Friday as a 1-point road dog. That was after losing 72-55 at home to Iona (as an eight-point dog). Iona is the best team in the MAAC. But the thing is, the Purple Eagles had won five in a row previous to the back to back losses. Then you have Marist, who has won just once over its last nine games. The Red Foxes lost to Fairfield 70-61 as 1.5 point dogs Friday right here at home. Niagara has revenge here for a two-point loss at home (as four-point favorites) last month. They shoot the ball a lot better than Marist does (45% to 40%). Play the better team laying a small number. 8* |
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02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State -2 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
At the end of the day, I just don’t believe North Carolina to be very good. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games, the most recent one at home to Miami, 80-72 as six-point favorites. Now NC State is also off a loss, at Syracuse, 75-72 as two-point underdogs. That was the Wolfpack’s second time losing in the last three games. But here in Raleigh, NC State is 12-1 straight up and averaging 83.4 points/game. Given that info, this line looks a bit short. Especially considering UNC has lost all four games in which it has been an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are also 1-6 ATS on the road. Over their last five games, UNC has shot just 40% from the field. They are shooting 30% from three for the full season. ACC home favorites are 58-15 straight up this season. I expect NC State to win and cover the spread Sunday. 8* |
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02-18-23 | Creighton v. St. John's +7.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Tricky spot here for #18 Creighton, who is coming off an OT loss at Providence and now laying points on the road. Sure, the Bluejays may very well win this game, but I do not see them covering the number. Now St. John’s got absolutely annihilated when they met Creighton earlier in the year. It was a 104-76 loss as a 10.5-point underdog for the Red Storm. But now look at this line by comparison. Sure, the magnitude of the blowout of the first go around needs to be factored in. But this number should not be any higher than -5, IMO. The Johnnies also come in as winners of two in a row. One of those wins came here at home against Providence, the same team that just knocked off Creighton. I also should mention how Creighton is a real geographical outlier in the Big East. This leads to a tremendous home court advantage in Omaha for them. But I think the conference road is a challenge, having to constantly go out East. All four conference losses have been on the road. St. John’s is 11-4 SU at home and plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. They are a tough matchup for the Bluejays here. Take the points. 10* |
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02-18-23 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -2 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Great spot to fade Texas A&M, IMO. We’re getting Missouri, at home, at a very cheap price due to the Tigers getting blown out earlier in the week at Auburn. But that was a very poor matchup for the Tigers. They are 14-2 SU here in Columbia and should bounce back. Meanwhile, A&M just won and covered for the fourth straight time Wednesday, outlasting Arkansas 62-56 as four-point favorites. The Aggies were not covering most of the way. In fact, they trailed 33-24 at halftime. A&M shot 50% from three against Arkansas, which will not happen again on the road. Six of the Aggies’ seven losses this season have been away from home. The four-game win streak has seen them win just once on the road and that was against last place LSU. To my earlier point, A&M shoots just 30% from three when not in College Station. Missouri puts up 86.3 points/game at home. Remember they went to Tennessee and won last Saturday, hitting 14 threes against the best 3-point defense in College Basketball history. This is a revenge spot for an 18-point loss in College Station last month where Mizzou shot poorly. 10* |
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02-18-23 | Islanders v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The Islanders knocked off the Penguins on Friday but face the big bad Bruins on no days rest on Saturday. It was the first win for the Islanders in 4 tries. They have given up 17 goals in 4 games, far more than their usual season's average of 2.7 goals per game. After a three game losing streak the Bruins seem to be back on track, winning 3 of 4 games and allowing just 6 goals against in that period. The Bruins have the top defense and PP in the league. On offense, they far outscore the Islanders, who are 24th in goals for and 26th on the Power Play. |
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02-17-23 | Abilene Christian v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total. Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0 As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively. After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10* |
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02-17-23 | Rangers v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The Rangers have won six straight games, scoring 31 goals while allowing 17. They continue to play on the road, where they are now 16-5, facing the Oilers on Friday night. The Oilers who were pressing for 1st in their division, are just 2-3 since the All-star break. Their league's best offense and Power Play have put up some high numbers, but they have also given up 14 goals in 3 games. With their recent offensive surge, the Rangers have moved into the top ten teams on offense, but the power surge appears to have come at the expense of more goals allowed than normal. The free-er style sure hasn't affected their winning percentage. Edmonton is worse than average on defense and a bottom feeder (27th ranked)on the penalty kill. Held to just 2 goals in their last game, look for the Oilers to bounce back on offense. Shesterkin has under-performed since the All-star break, with an .880 save % in his last three games. Oilers' net minder Skinner allowed 6 goals in his last time. |
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02-17-23 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -2 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The race at the top of the MAAC has gotten rather tight with Siena just one game back of both Iona and Rider in the loss column. The surging Saints have won two straight, though they failed to cover the 10-point spread against Marist last time out (won 73-65). I like them here, laying a much shorter number. While Siena is trending in a positive direction, Quinnipiac has dropped three in a row and just got blown out by last place Canisius 85-65 as a five-point road favorite. Siena captured the first meeting between these teams, 83-76 as a three-point road dog. They scored 52 points in the second half of that game. Given the trajectory of Quinnipiac’s play at the defensive end (allowing 78 or more points in five of the last seven games), I expect another big offensive showing from Siena here. After shooting just 40.4% their last five games, well below their season average, Siena is due for positive regression at the offensive end anyway. There was some sharp action on Siena overnight before we saw some buyback on Quinnipiac this morning. I feel very comfortable laying this short number with the home team. 10* |
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02-16-23 | Gonzaga -8 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 108-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
I like Gonzaga to roll here in a major revenge spot against Loyola Marymount.
LMU has wins over both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s this season, so they now have a target on their back when it comes to the top two teams in the WCC.
Gonzaga was a 16-point favorite when they lost at home to LMU last month. It was an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from the Zags as they went only 4 of 14 from three-point range. That was - by far - their lowest scoring effort in conference play.
Loyola Marymount comes into this rematch having dropped three of four overall, including 71-69 at Santa Clara over the weekend. The lone victory, which was against St. Mary’s, required overtime. They trailed 16-2 in that contest. The Lions are a good home team, but this number is just too low considering the revenge angle and the fact Gonzaga has won 51 of the previous 55 head to head encounters. 8* |
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02-16-23 | Clippers +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Phoenix returned home after a five-game road trip Wednesday and defeated Sacramento 120-109 as a two-point favorite. I don’t think tonight goes as well for the Suns.
Now the Suns have beaten the Clippers twice out in LA. But this is a different Clippers team now. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in either of those first two meetings while Paul George also sat out once. The Clips’ leading scorers in the losses to the Suns were Morris and Mann.
Phoenix has won 11 of 14 since an injury-induced slide last month. But they’ve been facing a lot of weak competition.
The Clippers just scored 134 on Wednesday night in a win over Golden State. They had a 44-point third quarter. Leonard led the way with 33 points in 34 minutes while George added 20 points and eight assists. Phoenix is 9-0 SU/ATS in division games, the only team in the league without a division loss. I think that ends here. 10* |
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02-16-23 | Panthers -114 v. Capitals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Panthers were embarrassed by the Blues in their last game so look for improved play, especially on defense, against the Capitals tonight. Washington is without Ovechkin tonight, has a heavy injury list, and hasn't had much recent success vs the Panthers. The Caps are off a pair of home losses and have managed to score just five goals in their last three games. It will very likely be Bobrovsky vs Kuemper in net tonight. Bobrovsky has been the hotter of the two lately with a sparkling .951 save % since the All-star break. The Panthers have a top seven offense but struggle to keep the puck out of the net. This may not be such an issue in this game. The Capitals manage to score just 3 goals a game on average this year, and the loss of their captain really hurts. Take the Panthers to prosper on the road tonight. |
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02-16-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 58-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves.
Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range.
Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight.
I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit. Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* |
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02-15-23 | Rangers v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The Rangers were impressive last time out, winning convincingly against Carolina. That is five straight victories now, with 4 of 5 going over and the Rangers scoring at least four times in each. The Canucks are just 1-4 since the break and have allowed a monstrous 25 goals in those five games. They managed just a trio of goals in the two games against Detroit, while allowing eleven. Since the loss of Demko, Vancouver's goal tending has been exceptionally poor, even allowing for a 31st ranked defense and the league's worst PK in front of them. I do expect something of a bounce back from the Canucks. They'll face Shesterkin in net, but he has been just average since the break. It is the offense, with the addition of Tarasenko, that has been overachieving lately. |
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02-15-23 | Drake -5.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Two teams going in totally opposite directions here. Drake has won seven straight while Northern Iowa has lost five straight.
Northern Iowa even lost to Evansville, the worst team in the Missouri Valley. They also lost at Drake by 7, 88-81. The last two games have seen the Panthers go down by 30 points.
Drake’s last two games have seen them win by 24 and 23. They don’t need to win by nearly that many to cover the spread here. Over the course of the seven-game win streak, Drake has scored 80 or more five times. Northern Iowa just gave up 80 its last time out. I think it’s important to note that Drake didn’t even shoot all that well in the first meeting (41%) and still put up 88 on UNI. 10* |
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02-15-23 | South Florida v. Tulsa +4.5 | Top | 96-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Tulsa has not been good at home … or really anywhere this season. The Golden Hurricane come into Wednesday night sporting a 5-19 straight up record. Four of those wins have come here at home, but they are just 1-8 ATS at the Donald W Reynolds Center.
Overall, Tulsa has actually been the worst pointspread team in the country this season. They are 3-18-3 ATS in all games! The team’s ONLY win since Christmas came here at home, on January 21st, 81-79 over Tulane.
But I’ll back the Golden Hurricane in this one as a short home dog vs. USF, who has only three wins since Christmas.
The Bulls are 7-1 ATS on the road, but only 2-6 straight up and have yet to be favored in any away game. Two of USF’s top four scorers missed the last game and they lost by 19. The status of both players (Bryant, Tchewa) remains questionable. 10* |
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02-15-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This shapes up to be a pretty important matchup in the Eastern Conference, right before the All-Star Break. Cleveland has the second best point differential in the league, trailing only Boston, but is fourth in the standings and one game behind Philadelphia.
The Cavaliers have won seven in a row. They covered the spread in six of those wins, but then couldn’t quite get the job done for their backers as huge 16-point favorites against San Antonio. They are underdogs here, the first time that’s been the case since a loss at Oklahoma City on 1/27.
You might be surprised to find out that the Cavs are only 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS when listed as the underdog this season.
Philadelphia has revenge coming into this game. They lost by 28 in Cleveland back in November. The Sixers are 16-5 ATS this season when playing with revenge. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak and are 12-3 SU L15 games. Cleveland also has a losing record on the road. I expect Philly to win and cover tonight. 10* |
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 239.5 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.
I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans.
The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field.
Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three. Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10* |
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02-14-23 | Butler v. Villanova -10 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Villanova team that is just 12-13 straight up on the season. But it is a revenge spot, at home, and the Wildcats are facing a Butler team in a prime letdown situation following an upset of Xavier over the weekend.
Now healthier, ‘Nova has won two straight. They beat Seton Hall 58-54 over the weekend. That was after crushing DePaul last Wednesday. Justin Moore (missed 20 games) being back is huge for this team.
Butler is coming off two straight two-point victories, one over St. John’s and the other against Xavier. Both of those wins came at home. Previous to that, the Bulldogs had lost five in a row, four of those games being decided by more than 20 points.
As an underdog, Butler has not fared well this season. They are not only 2-12 straight up, but 3-11 against the spread. Butler shot 56.5% from the field in the first meeting vs. Villanova, which won’t happen again here. The team shoots just 40.6% for the season away from home. 10* |
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02-14-23 | Celtics v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Boston is going to be shorthanded for this one, which is why the line has moved so dramatically. I’m still going to lay the points though with red hot Milwaukee, who should roll in this one.
The Bucks have won 10 straight and are 23-5 straight up at home. Early on in the season, the problem was the team was not all that healthy. But now Khris Middleton is back and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency has gone way up.
The Celtics’ projected starting five for this matchup is: Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Robert Williams. We know Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Danilo Galinari are all out. Additionally, Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful. Basically, I expect the Celtics to wave the proverbial “white flag” tonight. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogden are all listed as questionable, by the way.
The Bucks are just 1.5 games back of the Celtics. A win here pulls them even in the loss column. Boston has had Milwaukee’s number in the past, going 12-2 ATS L14 meetings including 6-0 here in Milwaukee. This is a chance for the Bucks to exact some revenge for a 21-point loss on Christmas. Fade a clearly shorthanded Celtics squad here. 10* |
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02-14-23 | Kent State v. Western Michigan +11.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Kent State has won two in a row since losing to Akron, a result I was on the right side of as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. The Golden Flashes are tied with Toledo atop the conference standings at 10-2.
Western Michigan, on the other hand, is having a pretty terrible year. The Broncos have lost eight in a row while failing to cover seven straight.
But I think that this is too many points for Kent State to be laying on the road. They’ve lost two of their last three road games and the one win, over Buffalo on Saturday, was by just seven points.
You have to figure we’re going to get WMU’s best effort Tuesday night with one of the high-profile teams in the conference coming to Kalamazoo. The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Take the points here. 10* |
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02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 126-135 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call. This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home. Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry. With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10* |
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02-13-23 | Red Wings +112 v. Canucks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 112 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The Red Wings thrashed the Canucks in the opening game of a home and home series in Detroit. They now meet 2 days later in Vancouver. The Canucks are equally poor at home or away this season. The Red Wings are just .500 on the road. The Canucks defense is still very questionable; they've given up 20 goals in their 4 games since the break, which is even worse than their season's average of 4 per game. While the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, They have a big edge on defense and in the net, especially when Husso is playing. He has won 5 of his last 7 games with a save %of .923. The Canucks still have some firepower, but losing Horvat has hurt. Even if Detroit's offense is a little anemic, Vancouver's defense and goalie can make any team's offense look like stars. I am on the Underdog today. Take Detroit to steal this one on the road. |
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02-13-23 | Prairie View A&M +5.5 v. Grambling State | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Grambling is 9-2 SU its last 11 games, all but two of which have seen them go off as the favorite. Coming into Monday, the Tigers have won and covered three straight. They are favored again here, but it’s worth noting the previous two times they have been on a three-game win streak, the next game ended up being an outright loss. One of those losses was at rival Southern, which was also one of the rare instances of Grambling catching points. The other loss came as a five-point home favorite to Alcorn State. Tonight, the Tigers face a Prairie View A&M team that already beat them, 61-60 back on January 2nd. Prairie View A&M was a 1.5-point favorite in that first matchup, so I’m seeing a little bit of value on them right away for tonight’s rematch. The Panthers have dropped five of seven overall, including a 79-65 loss at Southern over the weekend. But I’m not convinced this spread should be so large. Granted a lot has changed since these teams met in the conference opener. But Grambling has another revenge game on deck (Southern) and may be “looking ahead” to that game on Saturday. We’ve already seen this number get bet down at most shops and I expect that will continue throughout the day. 10* |
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02-13-23 | Jazz v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Coming into the season, the Jazz and Pacers were both expected to be among the worst teams in the NBA. They were each projected for just 23.5 wins. As you can see, both have wildly overachieved, already eclipsing their paltry projections. But there can be no denying that both teams have slowed down of late, especially Indiana, who comes into Monday having lost 15 of its last 17 games. Utah has lost four of five. The key for this game though is that Indiana is at home. They are 17-13 straight up and 18-11-1 ATS at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Utah is only 10-18 straight up on the road. They have a winning ATS record, but that’s because they are usually a dog, which is obviously not the case here. Even if the Pacers are bet to a favorite tonight, I’m sticking with them. (The Jazz are 2-5 SU/ATS as away favorites). The Jazz shook up the roster at the deadline and were down double digits to the Knicks Saturday before a late rally ultimately fell short. 10* |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 14 m | Show |
Here it comes! The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles. Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday? |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes. The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me this week. I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under. |
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02-12-23 | Pistons v. Raptors -10 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
The Raptors are curiously 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings with the Pistons and have lost six of the seven games straight up. I look for that to change on Sunday.
The one straight up win came in Detroit, earlier this season, as the Raptors prevailed 115-111.
On Friday, the Pistons needed double overtime to defeat the sorry Spurs 138-131. But that was just their third win in the last month. I have Detroit rated as the third worst team in the NBA, ahead of only the Rockets and Spurs.
Toronto also beat the Spurs this week, albeit much easier, 112-98. They followed that with a loss to Utah in a game that was decided in the fourth quarter. Even though they are 26-31, the Raptors have a positive point differential for the season. They are better than their record and should be able to blow out the Pistons here. 10* |
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02-12-23 | Robert Morris v. IUPU Ft Wayne -4.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Over the last month, Robert Morris has lost three in a row, won three in a row and now lost three in a row again. The Colonials are coming off a tough 57-55 loss at Cleveland State Friday, a game that was decided in the closing seconds. RMU was 4 of 21 from three in the two-point loss.
Fort Wayne also comes into Sunday on a bit of a losing streak. They’ve dropped two straight and four of six. This is a revenge spot for the Mastodons, who lost 75-70 at Robert Morris earlier in the season.
Fort Wayne was a three-point favorite when they made that visit to RMU. I know they lost, but it’s curious we are able to get them so cheap for this rematch.
Robert Morris only averages 64.0 points/game away from home where it is 4-11 straight up. Fort Wayne puts up 81.1 points/game at home. I like the home team to exact some revenge here. I know it’s been a disappointing season, but Fort Wayne was thought to be one of the top Horizon League teams coming into the season and I think we’re getting a discount here. 10* |
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02-12-23 | Oilers v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game. Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily. That was Montreal's first win in 5 games. The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season. Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game. Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely. Skinner likely starts for the Oilers. He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed. The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense. Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late. Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different. Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over. |
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02-11-23 | Arizona v. Stanford +9.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#4 Arizona has won seven in a row while going 6-0-1 ATS, but the trip to Palo Alto tonight could be a tricky one.
It’s been four straight blowouts for the Wildcats. As you know, it’s very difficult in grind of conference play to consistently win by double digit margins.
Stanford had won five in a row before losing the last two. It was a close call here at home vs. Arizona State Thursday where the Cardinal lost by four, 69-65 as a 2.5 point favorite.
That was a brutal result for Stanford considering they led by eight with five minutes to go. Other than a trip to Colorado on Sunday, the Cardinal haven’t played a bad game in a month. This is a possible upset. 10* |
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02-11-23 | Heat v. Magic OVER 215 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
I like the Over here. Last night’s Miami result is giving us some good value. The Heat won Friday, but it was not pretty as they beat the Rockets 97-95 as 12-point favorites. That obviously went way Under. (Total closed 220.5). There should be more offensive success in this game against an Orlando team that gives up nearly 115 points/game. The Magic have played two straight low scoring games and have had three in a row go Under overall. But they are 6-1 Over on Saturdays this season. The Magic’s last game, a 115-104 win over Denver, was 65-55 at halftime. 10* |
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02-11-23 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Columbus and the Leafs played each other on Friday, with the Leafs winning handily. On Saturday they face each other again, this time in Toronto. Columbus has won only four games on the road this season, while the Leafs are a dominant 20-5 at home. The Jackets are horrible in back to back situations and will likely play Merzlikins in net, who has won just four games this season and is giving up more than four goals a game. The Leafs are 4-1 when playing recently in back to backs. Their starter in net is unclear at this point. Columbus has joined the 30-30 club this season, not admirable in this case. They are 30th in offense and 30th ranked in defense with their power play only marginally better. The Leafs have a top nine offense and are a stingy 6th ranked on defense, with a very good power play. Now 2-8, and still with a very heavy injury list, the only competition the Jackets are in is the Bedard Cup. Here is one puck line prospect I feel safe in backing. Take the Maple Leafs at -1 1/2. |
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02-11-23 | Old Dominion v. Texas State -1 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Texas State got the win on Thursday, but could not cover as seven-point favorites against Arkansas State. The final score was 66-62. Over their last eight games, the Bobcats are just 2-6 straight up and against the spread.
But I will play them laying a much shorter number Saturday against Old Dominion.
ODU is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five games, but every result has been decided by six points or less. Three wins have been by three points or less, so the Monarchs are probably due for some regression in close games.
The reason Texas State didn’t cover is because Arkansas State was an abnormally good 9 of 18 from three-point range. ODU will not do the same. Plus, the Bobcats are due to start shooting better themselves from three. Old Dominion is not only playing its second straight game on the road, but this is the fourth time in the last six games they’re on the road. Their opponent went just 2 of 13 from three in the last game. 10* |
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02-11-23 | Providence v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Providence has a remarkable record in close games the last two seasons, but I’m going to look to fade the Friars as road favorites here as they pay a visit to a desperate St. John’s team.
The Johnnies started the year a perfect 8-0, but that was certainly the byproduct of a soft November schedule. Since that 8-0 start, the team is just 6-11. It’s an 0-3 start to February and they’ve failed to cover each of the last six games.
The Red Storm lost by two earlier this week at Butler (were 1.5 underdogs), dropping to 9-16 ATS overall this season. It was another close loss in the first meeting with Providence, which ended up being an 83-80 final. The Johnnies covered that one as seven-point dogs.
Providence may very well be looking past this game as they’ll be hosting Creighton on Tuesday. The Friars didn’t cover vs. Georgetown Wednesday and while they haven’t suffered back to back ATS losses since November, I see that happening here.
In all due respect, I do not think Providence is a Top 25 team in the country. 10* |
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02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Here we’ve got Wright State, who has covered five in a row, as a short home favorite against Northern Kentucky in a Friday night Horizon League matchup. The Raiders just dropped 103 in their last game. Now that was against the hideous IUPUI (one of the worst teams in the country), but it’s not like they aren’t normally a high scoring team. Coming into this game, Wright State is Top 20 in the country, averaging 81.3 points/game. At home, their scoring average rises to 85.8 points/game. Northern Kentucky has yet to show me they can “keep up” with a team that scores that many. The Norse are averaging just 61.0 points/game away from home. They finished with only 56 in a loss at Youngstown State in the last game. NKU did win the first meeting, back on December 29th, holding Wright State to just 64 points. But Wright State isn’t going to go 5 of 16 from three again nor will NKU go 11 of 23 again. Northern Kentucky has been an underdog five times this season. They’ve won and covered only once. Lay that short number. 10* |
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02-10-23 | New Mexico -6 v. Air Force | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-10-23 | Spurs v. Pistons OVER 235 | Top | 131-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an UGLY matchup with the worst team in the NBA (Spurs) taking on a Pistons team that is in the bottom four. While we’ve seen both teams struggle to score recently, it’s not like either is known for playing much defense. So let’s go Over the total here. Detroit is 29th (next to last) in the league in defensive efficiency. Would you like to guess who is last? That would be San Antonio. Neither of these teams play slow. In fact, both rank in the top 10 in pace. Combine that with the two worst defensive teams in terms of points allowed per possession and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for an Over. Oddsmakers are unfazed by the fact neither team scored 100 points in their last game. The Pistons had a horrific shooting night in Cleveland, including 8 of 32 from three. Three-point variance is something we can count on here, especially considering SA is allowing teams to hit over 40% from behind the arc. The Pistons are also “due” for an Over after six straight Unders. The Spurs have allowed 127 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games. They allowed “only” 112 at Toronto Wednesday. That’s notable because you’d have to go back to Jan 6th to find the last time the Spurs went back to back games without allowing 120 or more points. 10* |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers -180 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
A healthy and better rested Rangers team hosts the 4-6 Kraken at home tonight. the 7-3 Ranges have scored 9 goals in two straight wins since the break, allowing 7. The Kraken, usually offense-driven, have scored just a single goal in two straight losses. They are playing their third game in four days on the road. It should be Grubauer vs Shesterkin in net tonight. The Seattle goalie has been steadier than usual lately. The Rangers' Shesterkin is a very solid bet to bounce back from a rare sub-.900 effort last time out. |
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02-09-23 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga -13.5 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Gonzaga should be very motivated here as they are coming off an overtime loss to St. Mary’s last Saturday, 78-70 as three-point dogs. That was a game the Zags led for almost all of regulation. They were up eight at halftime and maintained that edge going into the final eight minutes.
Gonzaga doesn’t lose games back to back, but of course the oddsmakers know that and have them as double digit favorites tonight vs. San Francisco. This may seem like a steep number to lay Thursday, considering the “letdown factor” and that the Zags only won by two at San Francisco last month.
But I’m not afraid. If Gonzaga had lost to St. Mary’s on a, say Thursday, and was laying this many points two days later, then I’d be a bit more hesitant. But they’ve had plenty of time to “get over” that loss to SMU and regain their composure for what should be a full scale effort.
San Francisco has had a pretty frustrating season and comes in as losers of two straight. They lost by nine at St. Mary’s, then by 13 at home to Santa Clara (were three-point favorites). The Dons just cannot match Gonzaga’s explosive offense, which puts up 92.8 points/game at home. In their last home game, Gonzaga was laying a similar number to the Santa Clara team that just beat USF. The Zags won by 18. 8* |
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02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 231.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The Nuggets just put up 146 in their last game, a blowout win over Minnesota. Over their last six games, there’s been only one time where Denver and the opposition failed to combine for 235 or more points. That was a 128-98 loss at Minnesota where Jokic didn’t play.
Orlando’s last game was low scoring as they lost 102-98 to the Knicks. But the Magic are 16-5 to the Over this season when facing a team from the Western Conference.
Three of the last four games have seen the Magic shoot worse than their season average from three. Denver lets teams hit 38.1% from behind the arc on the road. So Orlando should find success from downtown in this matchup.
In fact, the Nuggets allow teams to shoot better than 50% overall when they are the road team. The Over is 8-3 L11 Magic home games as well as 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six overall. 10* |
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02-09-23 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State +1.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Georgia State has not had much success this season as they are 2-8 L10 games. But it’s the road that has given the Panthers trouble. All 10 of their wins in 2022-23 have come here at home and that’s where they are Thursday facing Old Dominion.
ODU has won four of six and just beat Georgia Southern 64-58 as a five-point favorite on Saturday. But be careful about reading “too much” into that 4-2 run. Two of the Monarchs’ wins were by a combined three points, both of those on the road.
This Old Dominion team does not shoot the ball well. They’ve been held under 34% overall in three of the last five games and have been below 32% from three in six of their last eight.
At home, Georgia State is allowing only 63.4 points/game. The first meeting, which was just under a month ago, saw ODU shoot the lights out from two-point range (24 of 34!) and Georgia State shot poorly overall. We won’t see that kind of dramatic split in the rematch now that ODU is the road team. 10* |
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02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 122-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Golden State just put up 141 in a win over Oklahoma City Monday night, but remember there’s no Steph Curry (out through the All-Star Break) and I just don’t see a repeat of that offensive effort from the Warriors tonight.
Against the Thunder, Golden State shot 57.7% overall and 52% from three. Klay Thompson made 12 threes himself. I’m on the record as saying none of that will be repeated here.
How much of a scoring decrease we see here from the Warriors remains to be seen. But considering this team is just 7-20 on the road, averaging 116.6 points/game, it should be rather substantial.
Portland saw a streak of four straight games with 120 or more points broken on Monday. They finished with just 108 in a blowout loss at the hands of Milwaukee. None of the previous five meetings between these teams would have gone Over this total. The Blazers are 29-11 Under following a game where they allowed 125 or more points. 10* |
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02-08-23 | Canucks v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The 3-10 Canucks have traded away their captain, fired their coach, and are missing their top net-minder. It has been a turbulent and disappointing season for the Canucks, but they were surprisingly competitive against the Devils in their first game back from the break. I doubt they will sustain that momentum tonight. The Rangers barely survived a road game vs the Flames, but are back home tonight. Shesterkin should be back in net. Behind a third-ranked defense, he has limited opposing teams to under 2.5 goals a game this year. Spencer Martin is expected in net for Vancouver. Martin has played poorly with an increased role this season, with little support from the Canucks' 31st ranked defense and the worst PK in the league. Martin gave up 6 goals in his last appearance. The Canucks have lost some heart and fire-power in trading away Horvat and are a poor team on the road this season. Tonight's game is a fine opportunity for the 6-4 Rangers, who haven't faced a bottom dweller in some time. NY needs to make a statement down the stretch, and this is the place to start. Take the Rangers to win on the Puck line at -1 1/2. |
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02-08-23 | Pistons +13.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Cleveland has been very good at home so far, going 22-6 straight up and 19-9 against the spread. But you’d have to go back to the LeBron days to find the last time they were favored by this many points.
It’s a good time to go against the Cavs, in my opinion. They’ve covered three in a row and are 2-0 vs. the Pistons this season. That all has conspired to inflate this number.
Over the 82-game grind that is the NBA regular season, you’re going to have some “off nights.” Cleveland has been pretty dialed in each of its last two games, but I don’t see that same kind of effort forthcoming here in what will be the team’s third game in four days.
Detroit, who is expected to be a seller at the trade deadline, could use a good effort. They’ve dropped four of five and 8 of their last 10. I think they come out strong here against a division rival. Note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS following a double digit win. Grab the points. 10* |
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02-08-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan -11.5 | Top | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Michigan thwarted rival Ohio State on Sunday, winning 77-69 as a 2.5 point favorite. That was the Wolverines’ second straight win after they also beat Northwestern 68-51 as a 3.5 point road dog last Thursday.
While I did fade Michigan on Sunday, and that ultimately proved to be unwise, I’ve learned from the “mistake.” There’s no denying the Wolverines look to be in a very favorable situation tonight, hosting a Nebraska team I rate as significantly worse than Ohio State.
The Cornhuskers are probably the second worst team in the Big 10. Now they too won Sunday, 72-63 vs. Penn State as five point home underdogs, but prior to that had lost four straight and six of seven. Both wins over the last month came in Lincoln.
On the road, Nebraska has been a bit of a disaster, going 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Michigan’s only home loss in conference play came to top ranked Purdue.
I’m fine laying double digits here as Nebraska has covered just 2 of its last 10 games overall and hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2018. Six of the seven straight Michigan wins over Nebraska have come by double digits. 10* |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.
Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.
New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.
Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10* |
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02-07-23 | Golden Knights v. Predators -102 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
The Predators ran up three straight victories, winning 5 of 6 leading up to the All-star break. While just .500 for the season, they have been much better in the second half. Vegas is a good road team but has struggled in the second half, and are still a victim of the injury bug. They continue to get solid goal-tending from Thompson, but are up against a rare game-altering net-minder in Saros, whose 92% save % has kept Nashville in many games. |
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02-07-23 | Drake -3 v. Murray State | Top | 92-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
There is currently a four-way tie for first place in the Missouri Valley. Drake is one of those four teams tied for the top spot following back to back double overtime wins.
The Bulldogs have won five straight and eight of nine overall. They did not cover in the three-point win at Valpo on Saturday as they were 8.5 point favorites. But the spread is smaller for tonight’s visit to Murray State and I think they cover this number.
Murray State is two games back of the top four and coming off a horrible loss, 99-56 at Indiana State. Things didn’t go much better when they faced Drake the first time as that was an 18-point loss for the Racers.
While they did recently beat Belmont (by 1) here at home, Murray State is just 4-5 SU over its last nine games and two of those four wins came by three points or less. It’s always tempting to take the points at home, but in this case Drake has already demonstrated it is the better team. Yes, coming off two straight 2OT games is tough as well. But the Bulldogs are being undervalued because of that. Lay it. 8* |
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02-07-23 | Knicks -1.5 v. Magic | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Orlando returns home, looking to make it three straight wins as a short dog. They’ve recently beaten Minnesota 127-120 (were +4) and Charlotte 119-113 (were +2), both on the road.
But I’m looking to fade the Magic here as the oddsmakers have started to give them too much respect. They are still just 12-19 SU vs. teams that are .500 or better.
The Knicks are 29-26 SU following a thrilling comeback win over the Sixers on Sunday. I had NY plus the points in that one. Now they go from home dogs to road favorites. This season, NY is 6-2 ATS laying points away from home. Earlier in the season, the Knicks beat the Magic 115-102 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Yes, the Magic are better now. But minus Mo Bamba (suspended), I don’t see them winning here. Lay it. 10* |
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02-06-23 | Texas v. Kansas -3.5 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
In what is clearly the premier matchup on Monday’s College Basketball card, I’ll ride with Kansas to beat Texas in a clash of Top 10 teams from the Big 12.
Kansas has lost four of six, so this result probably means more to them. Following wins over Kentucky and Kansas State, it looked like the Jayhawks had started to turn things around. But they lost at Iowa State over the weekend, 68-53.
After things got rather tumultuous, following the dismissal of Chris Beard, Texas has posted wins in seven of its last nine games. The Longhorns are coming off a couple close ones, however. They beat Baylor 76-71 last Monday and then came from behind to defeat Kansas State 69-66 on Saturday.
Against Kansas State, UT was down 11 at the half and didn’t take the lead until the final minute. So that’s a game they probably should have lost. Now turning around 48 hours later to play in Allen Fieldhouse is a tough situation, even for a team as talented as the ‘Horns. Kansas is 11-1 at home and this is a short number. This is the first time under Bill Self that the Jayhawks have lost four of five in conference play. It’s a good time to buy low. 8* |
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02-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets OVER 234.5 | Top | 140-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Sacramento suffered an embarrassing defeat on Sunday, going down 136-104 at the hands of New Orleans. That was a Pelicans team playing without Brandon Ingram, and in the second night of a back to back.
So it’s tempting to play the Kings here as they face the lowly Rockets. But there’s no indication (yet) that De’Aaron Fox will return. Nevertheless, I do expect there to be no shortage of scoring in this game.
Jalen Green is back for Houston and their defense only gets worse with him on the floor. In Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma City, the Rockets gave up 153 points and 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time. That’s atrocious.
Considering the Kings just allowed 136 to an undermanned Pelicans squad, defense seems like will be “optional” in this Monday night NBA tilt. In fact, the last time these teams met, they combined for 253 points. That was on January 13th, so not long ago. Two days before that, they combined for 250. This is an easy call on the Over. 10* |
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02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +3.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
After winning (and covering) six in a row, the Wizards have lost two straight. In both losses, they blew leads of 20+ points. So there’s an argument to be made that this team should be on an eight-game SU win streak entering Monday.
Against Portland on Friday, the Wizards saw their big lead quickly go away in the third quarter. Then on Saturday in Brooklyn, who didn’t have Durant, Irving, or Simmons, it was more of the same.
Here they are catching a small number at home and facing a Cleveland team that just played Sunday. The Cavs were successful yesterday, downing Indiana 122-103. But even with that result, they are just 11-16 SU on the road this season.
There is always a chance that Donovan Mitchell could sit tonight. Washington is poor as a home favorite (3-9 ATS) but 22-17-1 ATS otherwise. I like them as a dog tonight. 8* |
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02-06-23 | Lightning -120 v. Panthers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
We're back in business on the ice after the all-star break. My best NHL bet for Monday is the 8-2 Lightning roughing up the home side Panthers. The Lightning aren't as good on the road as at home, but they have had good success when visiting the Panthers. The Panthers are just 5-5 in recent games and are missing both of their top goalies. Journeyman goalie Lyon will likely be in net again. He has started 6 straight games, and has been better expected, but he'll face Tampa's potent top 4 offense and top 3 PK. The Panthers can put the puck in the net but their defense and PK has been suspect irregardless of whoever has tended the net this season. Lyon will face a ton of shots again. Vasilevsky will start for the Lightning. He has been super-sharp in his last couple of games, and is a winning machine again this season. The favorite usually wins when these two State rivals face off. The Lightning are definitely the better team this season, and their goalie superiority is the clincher. Take the Lightning to strike again on the road. |
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02-06-23 | UMass Lowell v. Hartford +16 | Top | 70-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Note the slightly earlier tip time for this one (6 PM ET).
Hartford finally won a game back on 1/25 when it upset Stonehill 73-56 as an eight-point underdog. But the Hawks had no real chance to build any sort of momentum, as they were off until Saturday - when they lost 62-49 to Chicago State, the only other D-I independent.
For Hartford, this long “homestand” continues Monday when they welcome in UMass-Lowell. I think it’s a good spot to take the Hawks as a big dog. All five of their wins this season have come at home.
Since Hartford is an independent, most opponents will not get “up” for them. In the case of UMass-Lowell, I believe it’s an especially good time to fade though. The River Hawks twice won by double digits last week and are probably peaking towards this weekend’s game at Vermont, which could decide first place in the America East. In road games where the total is 135 to 139.5, UMass Lowell is just 1-6 ATS this season. Take the points. 10* |
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02-05-23 | Stanford v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Stanford comes into Boulder on a five-game win streak, but one of those wins was out of conference (Chicago State) and they also beat the bottom two teams in the Pac 12 (Cal and Oregon State). So I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Cardinal recently. Colorado is a team that has been struggling; they’ve won just two of their last seven games while going 1-6 ATS. But almost all of their losses have been close and to top teams in the conference. I like the Buffaloes here as they’ve already gone on the road and beat Stanford 73-70 as a 2-point underdog. They did so despite making nine fewer free throws. This will also be Stanford’s second road game of the week. Credit them for pulling an upset in Utah Thursday, 78-72 as a six-point underdog, but that was also their first true road win of the season. (They’ve only played five!) Colorado hasn’t been very good as a favorite, but they are 10-2 SU at home and this is a pretty short number. 8* |
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02-05-23 | 76ers v. Knicks +5.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Philadelphia has won 9 of 10 and just beat San Antonio 137-125 as a 10-point favorite on Friday. New York has won just 3 of 10 after losing in overtime last night, 134-128 to the Clippers, as a 2.5-point home underdog. Despite those recent streaks, and this being the second night of a back to back, I’m siding with the Knicks on Sunday. I believe NY can exploit a Philly defense that has actually gotten worse while the team has been winning. In five of the last six games, the Sixers have allowed 119 or more points. The one exception was Wednesday’s home win over Orlando, who missed 32 of their 38 attempts from three. The Knicks’ 12-13 SU home record seems a bit misleading as they’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed. I know they were down 17 in the 4Q last night, before making a furious rally to force OT. But we’re also getting points here, which I like, as NY is 6-1 ATS its last seven games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* |
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02-05-23 | Ohio State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Ohio State has lost eight of nine, including a 65-60 loss to Wisconsin on Thursday where they were 7.5-point home favorites. However, I think we’ve hit the “bottom of the market” on the Buckeyes and this is the right time to “buy low.” Michigan just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 68-51 upset at Northwestern where the Wolverines were 3.5 point underdogs. But overall, the Maize and Blue have dropped five of eight, so it’s not like they are in significantly better form than their rivals heading into Sunday. KenPom has Ohio State rated as the unluckiest team in the country. That’s supported by the fact that five of their last eight losses have come by five points or fewer. The Buckeyes also boast a top 15 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. Michigan’s defense struggles to stop penetration, so look for the underdog to get plenty of points going to the rim in this Sunday matchup. I would not be the least bit surprised to see OSU win this game outright, then go on a nice late season run. I have them rated as a better team than Michigan so take those points. 10* |
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02-04-23 | Eastern Washington v. Portland State +5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Washington remains one of five teams in the country yet to lose a conference game. For the record, the others are: Alabama, Colgate, Oral Roberts and St. Mary’s. I will be fading Eastern Washington tonight as they visit Portland State.
These teams already met once and it was (obviously) Eastern Washington that won, 92-80. The Eagles shot 58% from the floor in that game and went 16 of 31 from three. They will not be doing that again here on the road.
Portland State got a much needed home victory on Thursday, beating Idaho 69-66. That ended a two-game losing streak. The Vikings had also previously dropped three in a row at home. While 1-6 ATS L7 games overall, I think there’s some real value in this team Saturday.
It’s a great spot with tonight being PSU’s fourth straight game at home. Eastern Washington is playing its second road game in three days. The only other time they had to do this and were favored, they did not cover at Northern Arizona. While 9-0 SU at home, EWU is just 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games. Portland State is the ONLY team in the country yet to cover a single spread at home. That changes tonight in a major way. Take the points. 10* |
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02-04-23 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222.5 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee scored only 106 in its last game, which is far from the norm for them. We're talking about a team that had previously scored 124 or more in six of eight games. The Bucks' offensive efficiency, over the last two weeks, is where you'd expect it to be. The Over is 14-8 this season in Bucks' games where the total is 220 or higher. I anticipate them scoring a ton tonight. Now Miami only scored 104 points in its last game. They've topped 110 just once in the last seven games, however, I think we can expect more than normal tonight given the Bucks' involvement. Two head to head meetings in January failed to produce more than 210 points. Neither Giannis Antekounmpo nor Khris Middleton played in those games though. Take the Over. 10* |
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02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls -4 | Top | 121-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Portland has won three straight and covered six of seven, but they had to come back from 20 down last night in Washington, so they are probably ripe to be blown out tonight in Chicago.
The Bulls won by 16 against Charlotte on Thursday and didn’t even get good games from either DeRozan or LaVine. Those two combined for just 25 points.
But the Bulls have won five of eight overall. In one of the three losses, they blew a big lead. I just think all signs point to a comfortable win for the home team. |
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02-04-23 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary +7.5 | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
For the past two seasons, UNC Wilmington has been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Their straight up record is to be respected, but there have been a lot of close wins. For that reason, I’ll fade the Spartans laying points on the road.
William & Mary has never been to the NCAA Tournament and they won’t get this year barring a run in the CAA Tournament. But the Tribe did beat UNCW 69-67 as a 12-point road underdog on January 14th.
That was the rare close loss for UNCW. Unfortunately for W&M, they haven’t covered a single spread since (0-6 ATS). But that ATS skid has this number inflated. I know the favorite is out for revenge, but the home team is desperate for a win as well.
Note W&M was just 2 for 14 from three when they beat UNCW last month. I certainly expect they’ll shoot better from three this afternoon. UNCW has a big showdown against Charleston looming and they could be looking ahead to that Wednesday contest. Take the points. 10* |
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02-03-23 | Kent State v. Akron -2 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This sets up as perhaps the biggest game of the season in the Mid American Conference as you’ve got first place Kent State traveling to face an Akron team that is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season.
The host Zips have won seven in a row overall, most recently destroying Buffalo on the road, 81-64 as short two-point favorites.
Kent State has lost just four games all season. Three of those losses were to Gonzaga, Houston and Charlotte, three teams that have a combined SU record of 61-9. The Golden Flashes only conference loss came last week at Northern Illinois, 86-76, and that was a real shocker considering they were 13-point favorites.
Now the Golden Flashes are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. But I feel that Akron’s home court advantage will be too difficult to overcome. The Zips are 31-4 SU L35 games here and we only have to lay a small number. They average 80.4 points/game at the J.A.R. This is a great team at defending the rim and Kent State is outside the Top 200 in 3-point shooting. Leading scorer Castaneda did not play against Ball State on January 6th, which is Akron’s only conference loss. He’s gone for 32 points in three of the last four games. 10* |
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02-03-23 | Kings -2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I cashed with the Pacers last night, but want NO part of them here in the second night of a back to back against Sacramento.
Indiana led most of the way Thursday against the Lakers, but succumbed to a 28-15 fourth quarter rally by LeBron and company and thus ended up losing by a final score of 112-111. At least they covered the spread (+2.5).
That was the Pacers fourth straight loss and 11th loss in the last 12 games. In the only win during that 12-game stretch (1/24 vs. Chicago), they trailed by 21 in the first half.
Sacramento is keen on ending what is the longest playoff drought for any team in the four “major” North American sports. The Kings are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They are currently third in the Western Conference with a 29-21 overall record and have won 9 of their last 12 games. Earlier this season, when the Pacers were playing better, they lost by 23 points to the Kings. These are now two teams trending in opposite directions. 10* |
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02-02-23 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 236.5 | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The Bulls and Hornets have already played twice this season. Both games went Under the total. I expect this one to be higher scoring though (as, obviously, so do the oddsmakers).
While five of the last six Bulls games have gone Under the total and four of the last five Hornets games have stayed Under as well, we are looking at a pair of teams more than capable of scoring - or allowing - a lot of points on any given night.
Charlotte takes a lot of threes and has scored 122 and 115 points its last two games. I’m confident they can score in that range again tonight.
The issue for the Hornets is they allow 120.5 points/game on the road. They just gave up 124 at Milwaukee. Chicago was just 4 of 25 from three the last time they played Charlotte. But that was on the road and I expect much better shooting tonight. Take the Over. |
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02-02-23 | Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -12.5 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Western Kentucky hosts UTSA in Conference USA action Thursday night. Whereas these schools played for the conference championship in football, the basketball programs are not pulling their weight.
WKU has dropped five in a row. They did cover Saturday’s game at FAU as 12.5 point underdogs. It was the second loss to FAU (C-USA’s #1 team) over those L5 games. The Hilltoppers have been one of the big disappointments in the league so far, but oddsmakers still expect them to win big tonight and so do I.
UTSA has lost eight straight overall and is 0-8 on the road. They have been outscored by 17.2 points/game away from home this season. In conference play, they are being outscored by 12.4 points/game.
The Roadrunners only conference win came all the way back on Jan 5 as a 10 point home underdog vs. Middle Tennessee. Since then, five of the eight losses have been by double digits. This includes a 10 point loss at home to Western Kentucky. Again, I expect WKU to roll here. The key here is the Hilltoppers are averaging 77.3 points/game at home. UTSA is giving up 80.6 on the road. I just don’t see a Roadrunners team averaging 63.4 points/game on the road scoring enough here to cover when the opposition is likely to put up somewhere around 80 points. 10* |
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02-02-23 | Lakers v. Pacers +2.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Indiana had been a real pleasant surprise this NBA season, but has now dropped 10 of its last 11 games. Just to illustrate how low expectations were here, the team has already exceeded its preseason win projection.
Expectations are always high for the Lakers, but they always seem to fall short. Right now, LeBron and company find themselves third from the bottom in the Western Conference standings.
LA did just go on the road and beat NY in what was the second night of a back to back for them. But now we’re talking about a fourth road game in six days. I just don’t have faith in this Lakers team.
They give up 121 points/game on the road and even with James & Davis on the floor, the net efficiency rating isn’t as high as you’d think. The Pacers are 16-9-1 ATS at home this year. I like them getting points. If Tyrese Haliburton could return (questionable), that would be an added bonus. 10* |
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02-02-23 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Robert Morris | Top | 65-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Northern Kentucky hits the road to face Robert Morris in Horizon League play Thursday night. The hosts have won and covered three straight. The visitors just had a four-game win streak snapped over the weekend.
It was a one-point loss for NKU at Milwaukee on Saturday, 75-74 as 6.5 point favorites. Just a brutal result for the Norse, who were up 20 - at home - at the half. Milwaukee used a stunning 24-4 second half run to turn the game on its head.
As a result, Northern Kentucky should be VERY motivated here. They know it should be a five-game win streak coming into tonight’s tilt.
Prior to their current three-game run, Robert Morris had lost five of six. So I’m not buying the Colonials. Especially since NKU already beat RMU this year, back in December, 60-56 as seven point favorites. While the Norse didn’t cover the spread at home, tonight all we need is a straight up victory. 10* |