Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-23-14 | Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers -4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Orlando on the road. It doesn't come much worse than that. The Magic have lost 33 of their 37 away contests this season. They are 1-22 during their last 23 road matchups.
The Lakers are enduring one of their most miserable seasons ever, but this is a perfect situation for a stop-the-pain game - a Sunday night home game against a tired patsy. The Magic nearly pulled out a road win at Utah last night, but fell 89-88. This marked the third straight game the Magic have failed to break the 93-point barrier. The Lakers are 12th in scoring averaging just under 102 points per game. Their up-tempo, fast style should work well against Orlando, which is playing without rest and could be missing point guard Jameer Nelson for a third straight game. While the Lakers don't have Kobe Bryant they will be dressing 12 players for one of the rare times this season. Back are Steve Nash and Nick Young, who has enjoyed a solid season as the Lakers' second-leading scorer at 16.8 points per game. |
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03-22-14 | Orlando Magic v. Utah Jazz OVER 196 | Top | 88-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Two very bad teams playing out the string here should provide more offense than defense. Both teams are not in good form defensively.
Orlando is giving up an average of 110.5 points per game during its last six games. If you discount the Magic's game against Philadelphia, Orlando has surrendered a minimum of 103 points during each of its last seven road contests. Utah is giving up an average of 109.6 points per game during its last six matchups. The Jazz are 8-0-1 to the over when hosting opponents with a losing road record. |
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03-19-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +6.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is the type of situation the Bobcats have excelled in. Charlotte is off a horrendous 97-83 home loss to the Hawks two nights ago.
The Bobcats have covered nine of the last 12 times following a loss. They are 8-0 ATS the past eight times when taking seven or fewer points. Yes, Brooklyn is playing well with eight wins in its last 10 games. The Nets have won their last nine home games, too. The veteran Nets, though, are far from a dominant team. This is a pivotal game for the Bobcats in their playoff quest. A victory here moves them to within 1 1/2 games of the Nets. The Bobcats have other strong motivation factors, too. They are off their worst shooting game of 2014. The Bobcats still have won four of their last five so it's not like they're in a slump. They just had an off-night against Atlanta. It happens in the NBA. Charlotte has a strong revenge motive. The Nets pasted the Bobcats, 105-89, in Brooklyn in the last game before All-Star break. The Bobcats should be far more focused this time around. Al Jefferson is one of the best big men in basketball. The Nets rank 29th in rebounding so Jefferson should be a huge factor. |
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03-18-14 | Washington Wizards -130 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
It's not a fluke the Wizards are playing for home-court advantage in the playoffs just 1 1/2 games behind the Bulls for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Washington has five above average players, one of the more underrated starting backcourts and have upgraded their bench with the additions of grizzled veterans Drew Gooden and Andre Miller. The Wizards have been money in the bank away from Verizon Center covering 17 of their last 23 away games for 74 percent. Washington begins a four-game road swing here. The Wizards are rested having been idle the last two days. They are 6-1 during their past seven road contests and have covered in six of their past seven visits to Sacramento. The Kings are lottery-bound once again and in a dangerous situational spot. This is their first home game since March 3. Sacramento has had only one day of rest since returning home following a season-high seven-game road trip where it went 2-5. Sacramento is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when going on one day's rest. Center DeMarcus Cousins is Sacramento's key player. He missed the Kings' last game because of tendinitis in his right knee. Cousins is a major talent, but has proven to be a head case who doesn't go all out all the time. He's likely to play, but it's not a given that he will perform at a high level. The Wizards caused Cousins to have his worst shooting game of the season missing 13 of 16 shots from the field when the teams met for the first time with Washington winning, 93-84, at home on Feb. 9. |
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03-17-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Charlotte Bobcats -135 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Let's get something straight right away. Atlanta isn't good anymore especially on the road where until eking out a 112-110 win against Utah it had dropped 10 straight.
This isn't the Hawks of years past. Gone are Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford, out for the season with an injury. Paul Millsap is their lone above average player. Atlanta doesn't play defense on the road where it has given up triple-digits in each of its last 11 away matchups. The Hawks are surrendering an average of 109.8 points per game during this road span. This is a long-term problem for the Hawks, who are 7-18-1 ATS during their past 26 road contests. Charlotte is much improved and is dead set on making the playoffs. The Bobcats are the seventh-seed in the East 2 1/2 games ahead of Atlanta. They have lost 10 in a row to the Hawks. So the Bobcats should have plenty of motivation. Charlotte also is playing well having won four in a row. The Bobcats have won eight consecutive home contests. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home matchups and 7-0-1 ATS when facing an opponent with a losing record. The Hawks are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus Eastern Conference teams. Even with Millsap, the Hawks are going to have problems with their battered front line containing Al Jefferson. |
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03-16-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Clippers -11 | Top | 80-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The Clippers are a little banged-up but they are deep, playing tremendous basketball and have a strong revenge motive.
Cleveland stunned the Clippers, 88-82, at home back in December holding Los Angeles to its lowest-scoring effort of the season and worst shooting game of the season. The Cavaliers are a low C level team taking on a club that has a legitimate chance of winning the NBA championship. Cleveland is a slightly below average defensive club and a bad offensive team ranking last in field goal percentage. Cleveland is a surprising 2-0 in its West Coast trip pulling off upsets against the Suns and Warriors. The Clippers aren't going to take them lightly and have the strong bench to keep the backdoor closed. Los Angeles has won 10 in a row while going 7-2-1 ATS. The Clippers were averaging 115 points during their first nine games of their win streak before encountering a flat spot in their last game, a 96-87 win against Utah. I don't see the Clippers being flat a second straight game. The Clippers play at Denver on Monday, but after that are idle until Saturday. The Cavaliers are feeling fat and happy after pulling off two improbable straight-up victories. They return to Cleveland following this matchup and have Miami and old teammate LeBron James on Tuesday. That's always an emotional spot for the Cavaliers when they host James and the Heat. |
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03-15-14 | Indiana Pacers -5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
After losing four in a row, the Pacers are getting back on track. In their last two games they defeated the Celtics by 11 points this past Tuesday and then defeated the 76ers by seven points last night after leading by 17 points.
I see the Pacers continuing to reach their earlier high standards taking on the disjointed Pistons, a team they won't take lightly and have a history of being motivated against. The Pacers have covered five of their last six against the Pistons, but lost 101-96 at home on Dec. 16 to Detroit. That loss halted Indiana's franchise-best 11-0 start at home. Indiana has a huge coaching edge, plays far stronger defense and has much better chemistry. The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at Detroit. |
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03-14-14 | Phoenix Suns -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 87-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This not only is a stop-the-pain game for Phoenix, but a crucial one as well.
The Suns have lost three in a row to fall two games behind gaining the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Now the Suns begin a three-game road trip. After this game, the Suns play two far stronger Eastern Conference teams - Toronto and Brooklyn. Despite the return of Eric Bledsoe, the Suns suffered a shocking 110-101 home loss to Cleveland this past Wednesday. That was only the second time since Jan. 5 that Phoenix had lost to a sub-.500 team. Rajon Rondo is expected to play for Boston, but the Celtics are still one of the weakest teams in the league definitely committed to youth and playing for ping pong balls. The Celtics have lost nine of their last 12 with their victories coming against the Pistons, Nets and Hawks during this span. Boston rarely has been competitive with the quicker more athletic teams from the West. The Celtics are 4-23 against Western Conference teams this season and have failed to cover in six of their last seven versus Western Conference opponents. Boston is 0-4 in its last four games versus Western Conference foes since Feb. 21 losing by nine to the Lakers, by seven to the Kings, by 12 to the Jazz and by 20 to the Warriors at home. Rondo isn't shooting well missing 21 of 30 shots from the floor in his last two games. The Celtics also don't have injured Avery Bradley in the backcourt. The Suns are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road contests and 7-3 ATS the past 10 times facing Eastern Conference foes. They also are 20-7 ATS following not covering the spread during their last game. Bledsoe returned this past Wednesday after missing 33 games following knee surgery. He played 32 minutes against the Cavaliers and had 15 points and nine assists although his shot was rusty. Bledsoe, who averages 17.8 points and 6.0 assists, should get his shot back soon. He's a high energy player and a very good defender. The Suns are 16-9 when Bledsoe plays. Bledsoe didn't play when the Suns defeated the Celtics, 100-94, at home on Feb. 19. |
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03-12-14 | Dallas Mavericks -4.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
The veteran Mavericks know they need to focus for this matchup. A motivated Dallas club should cover this number against a bad Utah team playing the lottery game.
Utah has dropped six of its last seven with its lone win during this time coming versus 76ers, which should be noted with an asterisk considering how much Philadelphia is tanking. The Jazz's latest defeat came two night ago at home, 112-110, to the Hawks, who had lost 14 of 15 entering that matchup. Dallas has a top 10 offense and can definitely take advantage of Utah's lack of defense. The Jazz are giving up 106 points during their last five games allowing opponents to make better than 51 percent of their shots from the field. The line is lower than normal because the Mavericks played last night and got hammered by Golden State, 108-85, on the road. The veteran Mavericks are in a dogfight for a playoff spot battling both Memphis and Phoenix. They know they have a much more difficult game on tap against Oklahoma City on the road. They can't take a loss here. So I'm expecting a focused and professional effort from a professional group of veterans. Before losing to the Warriors, the Mavericks had defeated the Pacers and Trail Blazers at home winning those games by an average of seven points. Utah is a major step down from those teams. The Mavericks have been solid money-makers on the road covering 21 of 34 for 62 percent. They have defeated Utah in 10 of the past 13 meetings, including going 2-0 this season winning by a combined margin of 32 points while sinking 17 of 35 shots from 3-point range. |
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03-10-14 | Atlanta Hawks -115 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The Jazz are playing at home for the first time since Feb. 25 following a six-game road trip that ended two days ago with a win against hapless Philadelphia.
Utah is a young team that figures to have problems adjusting in its first home game following being away for so long. The Hawks are on the flip side playing in their last of a six-game road trip. Atlanta is desperate for a win being 0-5 on their trip. The Hawks nearly upset the Clippers in their last game. Now they step way down in class. They are a much better team now that Paul Millsap has returned from an injury. Millsap will be especially motivated going against his former team. The Jazz have failed to cover in their last five games versus the Hawks. |
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03-09-14 | Toronto Raptors +5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Both teams are playing well, but it's hard not to back the Raptors. Consider these trends about Toronto: 16-6-1 ATS on one day's rest. 20-7 ATS last 27 road contests. 11-4 ATS versus foes with a winning mark. Five consecutive victories against the Timberwolves.
The situation lays out well, too, for the Raptors as this is just their second game in a week and first road matchup since Feb. 25. The Raptors have the stronger bench and superior defense. They've held their past nine opponents to an average of 92.7 points in regulation. Amir Johnson is one of the few defenders who has had past success containing Kevin Love. Only once during their past nine games have the Raptors allowed an opponent to score 100 points. I like Toronto coach Dwane Casey much more than Rick Adelman. The Timberwolves lack discipline under Adelman. That's not the case with the Raptors, who have the second-best point spread mark in the NBA at 36-23-1. |
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03-09-14 | Denver Nuggets +2 v. New Orleans Pelicans | 107-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are a much stronger team with point guard Ty Lawson back running the show. The Nuggets are healthy now for one of the rare times this season.
The Pelicans are missing Ryan Anderson, Jrue Holiday and key big man reserve Jason Smith. They are in tank mode as coach Monty Williams continues to provide minutes to his younger players. New Orleans has won two in a row - but those victories were achieved against the Bucks and Lakers. Prior to that the Pelicans had dropped eight in a row. They are 0-6-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on one day rest. |
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03-07-14 | Brooklyn Nets -4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Have to ride the Nets here. Brooklyn is 20-8 since January, the best record in the Eastern Conference during this span. The Nets have won four in a row, holding foes to 90.3 points a game during this span.
The Nets are at their best when playing bad teams such as Boston going 15-1 the past 16 times when playing foes currently under .500. Brooklyn just got done beating two hot teams - the Bulls by 16 on Monday and Grizzlies by nine on Wednesday - and now step way down in class. Boston is 1-7 in its last eight and 2-23 the past 25 times when meeting an opponent with a winning record. The Celtics had a perfect situational spot in their last game this past Wednesday hosting a tired Warriors team playing without rest after having upset Indiana the night before on the road and lost by 20. The Nets have covered seven of the last 10 in Boston, including beating the Celtics 85-79 in their last visit on Jan. 26. |
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03-05-14 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 105-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Bulls are a well-coached, veteran team that plays great defense and is focused on gaining the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. The Pistons are disjointed with a lame duck coach. They sit around on defense and on offense watch Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings hoist up bad shots.
The Bulls are 9-2 in their last 11 games, but off a bad 96-80 road loss to the Nets two nights ago. They should be primed for a strong effort after committing a season-high in turnovers versus Brooklyn. Chicago is 6-1 ATS following a loss. The Bulls have been solid on the road, too, covering 13 of their last 19 away matchups. After this game, the Bulls return home. However, their next four opponents are the Grizzlies, Heat, Spurs and Rockets. So Chicago can't afford to slip in this matchup. The Pistons are in just the opposite frame of mind after snapping a four-game losing streak with a 96-85 home win against the Knicks, another team in disarray. Despite that victory, Detroit has covered only 42 percent of its home contests. Only four times since Dec. 8 have the Pistons won in their next game following a victory that ended a losing streak. Before beating the equally inept Knicks, the Pistons were giving up 112.3 points in their last seven games following All-Star break. They are last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Bulls have revenge for a December 92-75 home loss to the Pistons in the last meeting. The Bulls have a strong history against Detroit winning 19 of the last 21 meetings while going 18-7-1 ATS during their past 26 games in the series. |
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03-03-14 | Memphis Grizzlies -125 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
The Wizards have won six in a row, but four of those victories have come against bad teams (76ers, Magic, Cavaliers and Pelicans) and a fifth was against the struggling Hawks.
Now Washington is stepping up in class to face the Grizzlies, who are hot, too, with six wins in their last eight games. Memphis usually does the job against Eastern Conference opponents going 14-6. The Grizzlies also are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record. Washington hasn't been a good home team all season going 11-17-1 ATS, including 1-4-1 ATS during its past six at Verizon Center. The Grizzlies nipped the Wizards, 92-89, at home on Feb. 11. The Wizards had Nene in that game while the Grizzlies were missing Mike Conley and Tony Allen. Conley and Allen are back now while the Wizards are missing Nene. Washington has a losing record this season when Nene hasn't play. |
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03-02-14 | Atlanta Hawks +8 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 120-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The Suns got back on track with a 116-104 win against New Orleans two days ago. Previously, the Suns had dropped three in a row. Phoenix has failed to cover five of the last seven times following a double-digit victory.
Phoenix certainly isn't sneaking up on opponents like it did during the first half of the season. The Suns are a legitimate contender for the last spot in the Western Conference. They are the most improved team in the league, but they are far from elite. The Hawks are at low ebb, five games below .500 as they battle injuries. Paul Millsap, their All-Star big man, is out again. However, I see the Hawks turning things around in this matchup. Giving the situational circumstances and matchup makeup, Atlanta can definitely stay with in this number. The Suns aren't a strong enough rebounding team to fully exploit Atlanta's front-court injuries. Atlanta will get its points off the Suns, who rank 23rd in scoring defense. The Hawks are averaging 105.2 points in their last four games. If they averaged that for the season they would rank as the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Hawks also have been idle since Wednesday and won't play again until this Wednesday. They are rested and focused. Phoenix, though, is playing for the fourth time in six days. |
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03-01-14 | Washington Wizards v. Philadelphia 76ers +12 | Top | 122-103 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Yes, I'm holding my nose way high taking the 76ers fully aware Philly has lost 12 in a row with an average loss of more than 20 points as they race to get their lottery ticket.
But this is a complete fade on the Wizards, who are off their most physically draining game of the year a triple overtime victory against the Raptors this past Thursday night. That was a huge road victory. The Wizards host the Grizzlies on Monday in what figures to be a much tougher matchup. So it's a big letdown spot for Washington. A number of Wizards played huge minutes against Toronto. Marcin Gortat played 51 minutes. Bradley Beal also logged 51 minutes. Trevor Ariza went 50 minutes and John Wall clocked in at 49 minutes. I can't see these key players being in top shape for this letdown matchup. The Wizards have failed to cover in five of their last six games in Philadelphia. |
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02-28-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +9 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 82-92 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The Bobcats are a legitimate playoff contender for the first time. They are playing their best ball with a four-game winning streak, including a victory against hot Memphis. Charlotte is well-rested and greatly anticipating this step-up game having had six days to prepare for this matchup.
The Bobcats are 23-12 ATS when taking three or more points. They hung in against the Spurs at home three weeks ago losing, 104-100. The Bobcats are 17-8-1 ATS during their past 26 road contests. Al Jefferson is playing as well as any big man in the league. San Antonio is playing just its second home game since Feb. 1. The Spurs host Dallas on Saturday in a much bigger game for them. |
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02-25-14 | Orlando Magic +10 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Yes, I'm aware of Orlando losing AND failing to cover in its last 15 road games. But I see the Magic ending that streak with this high of a spread.
The Wizards are both 14-14 on the road and at home. They have been a far better ATS team on the road. At Verizon Center they are 11-17 ATS on the season. This includes a 1-9 ATS mark the past 10 times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. The Magic will be without their leading scorer, Arron Affalo. However, the Wizards have a bigger injury loss with Nene out around six weeks after suffering a sprained MCL. Nene has been with the Wizards for the past three seasons. Washington is one game below .500 when Nene has played and 26 games below .500 when he's been out. The Wizards are 1-6 this season minus Nene. Orlando has defeated the Thunder, Pacers, Knicks and Pistons while losing by five to the hot Grizzlies during their past eight games. That's not a sign of a team that has quit. |
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02-24-14 | Boston Celtics v. Utah Jazz -3 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
Boston is bad and banged-up. Not a good combination. The Celtics also are weary as this marks their third game in four days and the end of their four-game Western Conference trip. Making it worse is Utah is up in the mountains meaning the Celtics are playing in higher altitude. Boston is 1-6 ATS the past seven times when playing on one day's rest.
The Celtics have lost four in a row. All the defeats have been by six or more points. They are 3-14 in their last 17 road games. The Celtics' only victories during this span were against the Bucks, 76ers and Wizards in overtime. The Bucks and 76ers are the two worst teams in the NBA. Boston especially has trouble with Western Conference opponents. They have failed to cover in seven of their last nine meetings versus Western foes, including losing their last two by seven points to the Kings and by nine points to the Lakers. Utah is right on par with those teams. The Jazz have played better at home winning nine of their last 15 in Salt Lake City, including upsetting the Thunder and Heat during this span. Utah still may be missing Derrick Favors, but the Celtics are in far worse injury shape even though Rajon Rondo is expected back tonight. The Celtics' backcourt is still down Avery Bradley and they will be without their best frontcourt player, Jared Sullinger. He's out with a concussion. Like Boston, Utah played this past Saturday and was embarrassed at home by the Timberwolves losing, 121-104. So the Jazz should be pumped for this matchup. They are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times after suffering a double-digit home defeat. |
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02-23-14 | Brooklyn Nets -300 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
I see a veteran Nets squad taking care of a beat-up Lakers team that isn't very good and still missing key players. |
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02-22-14 | Memphis Grizzlies -130 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 89-92 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Both teams are playing well but there is a clear class difference here. The Grizzlies are 16-4 in their last 20 games, back to playing great defense and finally are fully healthy. They have the big men to control Al Jefferson, the Bobcats' key player.
While Charlotte is thinking playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference, the Grizzlies trail Dallas by one game for the final playoff spot in the much stronger Western Conference. The Grizzlies beat the Clippers last night in impressive fashion, 102-96. They don't want to give that game back against a much weaker foe. A noteworthy thing about that victory was the return of defensive whiz guard Tony Allen. He hadn't played since Jan. 3. Point guard Mike Conley, enjoying his finest season, has been back now for two games after being out with a sprained ankle. It has been 18 games since reigning defensive player of the year Marc Gasol returned from a knee injury. Memphis is 14-4 since Gasol returned. Memphis ranks No. 3 defensively allowing 94.5 points a game. The Grizzlies have held 14 of their last 17 opponents to fewer than 94 points. |
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02-21-14 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 202 | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Portland is 3-7 in its last 10 games yet stood pat at the trade deadline. The Trail Blazers obviously believe they have enough to be a serious title contender. This is a stop-the-pain game for them and they have the offense to put up a lot of points against a weak opponent.
Portland leads the NBA in scoring and free throw percentage. The Trail Blazers are likely to be missing leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge for a second straight game. Despite not having Aldridge in their last game, the Trail Blazers still scored 109 points versus San Antonio even though they had an average shooting game and below average free throw shooting performance. The Spurs rank seventh in defense while Utah is 14th, giving up an average of more than 100 points per game. The Trail Blazers are averaging 117.5 points in two games against the Jazz this season. The Jazz are getting excellent backcourt production from their now healthy guards. Portland is one of the four worst defensive clubs in the NBA allowing an average of 103.9 points per game. So Utah should be able to get its share of points. The over has cashed 10 of the last 11 times the Trail Blazers have hosted Utah. Portland also has been an over machine at home going 30-14-1 above the total during its last 45 home contests. |
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02-19-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Charlotte Bobcats -134 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Charlotte buried the Pistons 108-96 at Detroit last night and it wasn't a fluke.
The Bobcats may not have the better individual talent, but they play much better team basketball. They want a playoff berth. Detroit doesn't. Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings have been far more down than up for Detroit. Charlotte has the stronger defense and the best scoring inside player of the two teams in Al Jefferson. I don't see the Pistons responding well to their thrashing last night. They lack character and are 4-10 ATS following a loss. |
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02-18-14 | Miami Heat -133 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
It's post All-Star time. Time for the two-time world champion Heat to step things up trailing the Pacers by 2 1/2 games.
Miami wouldn't lack for motivation in this game anyways always remembering the Mavericks defeating them in six games during the 2011 NBA finals. Miami has won the last five in the series. Both teams enter this matchup playing well. But I'll take Miami's best against Dallas' best especially since the Heat enter this matchup fully healthy for one of the rare times. The Mavericks have a losing home spread record and are 2-8-1 ATS the past 11 times hosting Miami. Dallas also has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times when home against a foe with a winning road mark. |
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02-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
I can't see the Lakers being competitive at all against the Thunder in this last game before the All-Star break.
Decimated with injuries, including missing five of their top six scorers and point guards Steve Nash and Jordan Farmar, the Lakes are no match for a hot Oklahoma City squad. The Thunder have won 14 of their last 16 while covering 12 of the 16. The Lakers just want to get to break and then hopefully get back some of their walking wounded, including Pau Gasol and maybe even Kobe Bryant. In the meantime, the overmatched Lakers have dropped 21 of 26. This includes losing in their last six home games. The Thunder have always taken the Lakers seriously and usually don't let up when playing weaker competition. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road contests. Kevin Durant has been on a shooting tear as he battles for Most Valuable Player honors. Durant is averaging 35.2 points while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor during the last 21 games. He shouldn't have any letup here since the Thunder won't play again until next week. |
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02-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a cheap number. It doesn't matter that San Antonio is banged-up. The Spurs are deep and coming off a horrible 109-100 road loss against the Pistons two nights ago. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said it might have been the worst defense his team has played all season.
The veteran and proud Spurs will come out fired up. The Celtics, on the other hand, have won of their past five. They are fat and happy heading into All-Star break. Their victories during this span have come against four of the worst teams in the league - the Kings, Magic, 76ers and Bucks. The Spurs still are far superior to Boston. They won by double-digits in the first meetings and are likely to win by an easy margin this time, too. |
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02-11-14 | Dallas Mavericks -3 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 89-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Dallas is playing well and has dominated Charlotte winning 17 of the past 18 meetings, including the past five. The Mavericks have covered in six of their last seven road matchups versus the Bobcats.
Dallas has put together five solid efforts - all victories - the last four coming against the Cavaliers, Grizzlies, Jazz and Celtics by an average victory margin of 16 points. Last season, Dallas was 17-24 at the halfway point. The Mavericks have made it a priority to play better during the first half and they've succeeded winning 31 of their first 52 games. On tap for the Mavericks is a game tomorrow night at Indiana - a probable loss. So the Mavericks should be primed for an all-out effort in this very winnable game. Dallas has a strong road track record at 38-13 ATS and is 36-15 ATS when playing sub .500 teams. |
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02-09-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +16 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 78-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Chris Paul is expected to play for the first time since injuring his shoulder on Jan. 3. Paul isn't going to have his rhythm yet after being out for so long.
Yes, the Clippers can name their score - if they wanted. But I can't see their focus and concentration being there especially after they followed up their home loss to the Heat with a resounding home win against Toronto in their last game. The Clippers have allowed an average of 112.3 points during their last three games. The 76ers are the worst defensive team in the league, but they are averaging a respectable 101 points a game. They have talent with Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and prime rookie of the year candidate Michael Carter-Williams. The 76ers have played better on the road than at home. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road contests and have won their past three West Coast road matchups beating the Kings, Trail Blazers and Nuggets. The teams met on Dec. 9 in Philadelphia and the Clippers won, 94-83. Paul played and had a big game. But the 76ers shot less than 36 percent from the floor - missing 18 of 21 shots from beyond the arc - and didn't have Carter-Williams for that game. Surely they can shoot better in this game and having Carter-Williams play makes a difference for the 76ers. |
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02-08-14 | Denver Nuggets +1 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
Denver is the superior team and is in a good spot despite being on the road.
The Pistons are fat and happy after beating Brooklyn at home last night. Even with that win, the dysfunctional and poorly-coached Pistons are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games at The Palace at Auburn Hills. The Pistons also might not have Josh Smith, who suffered an ankle injury against the Nets. Denver is off a bad loss to the Knicks last night at Madison Square Garden. The Nuggets were held to under 101 points for just the third time in their last 18 games. The Nuggets have a winning spread record during their past seven away matchups. The Nuggets have defeated Detroit in each of the last six meetings. They should be primed to do it again. |
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02-08-14 | San Antonio Spurs -4.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 104-100 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
The Spurs should be highly motivated after suffering a blowout loss to Brooklyn in their last game.
They draw Charlotte in its first game back from a successful 3-1 West Coast trip. The Bobcats are 0-5 the past five times playing following a road win. Their average losing margin during this span is by 10 points. The Spurs have beaten Charlotte four straight times by double digits. The Spurs aren't 100 percent, but they have most of their injured players back. Tim Duncan is expected to play today. That's huge. |
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02-07-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 204 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Toronto plays more up-tempo when facing the athletic and quick Western Conference teams. The over has cashed 70 percent of the time during the Raptors' past 20 games versus Western Conference opponents. The over also has cashed six of the last seven times the Raptors have met Pacific Division foes.
The Raptors and Clippers recently met on Jan. 25 and there were a combined 244 points scored with the Clippers winning, 126-118. That was the game Terrence Ross came out of nowhere to tie a Toronto franchise record with 51 points. The Clippers will be paying more attention to him, which will open things up for Toronto's other players. If you discount a 92-point performance against Golden State, an improved defensive club, the Clippers are averaging 113 points during their last seven games. The Clippers have gone above the total in 23 of their last 33 home contests. The Raptors are coming off a 109-101 loss at Sacramento two nights ago when the Kings shot 39.5 percent from the floor and Toronto shot just 42.9 percent from the field. Yet the total still flew over. There are numerous players from both teams playing at high levels. So it's doubtful those shooting percentages will be anywhere near that low in this matchup. |
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02-07-14 | Denver Nuggets -110 v. New York Knicks | 90-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are the superior team and in better form than New York, which has dropped three in a row and is averaging only 93 points during this span.
Denver has scored at least 101 points in 15 of its last 17 games. The Knicks have failed to step going 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus above .500 opponents. The Knicks' 11-17 home record also is far from intimidating. |
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02-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Indiana Pacers -5.5 | 113-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Indiana is seeking revenge and has covered 25 of its last 34 games.
The Pacers rank first in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They catch Portland playing poorly. The Trail Blazers rely on offense. However, they have failed to break the 94-point barrier in three of their last four games. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. |
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02-05-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -7.5 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Suns have overachieved all season. But they could be hitting the wall heading into next week's All-Star break. Phoenix lost 101-92 at home to slumping Chicago last night.
This marks the Suns' seventh game in the last 11 days. The Suns, especially minus Eric Bledsoe, don't have the offense to keep up with the Rockets. Houston is rested, too, having last played on Saturday. James Harden should be back to 100 percent, Jeremy Lin is off a triple-double and Dwight Howard has made 15 of his last 19 free throws during the past two games. |
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02-04-14 | Chicago Bulls +8 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Chicago has lost two in a row. That hasn't happened to the Bulls since the week before Christmas.
The Bulls are well-coached under Tom Thibodeau. They are a gritty, determined team that has overcome adversity having lost Derrick Rose and given away Luol Deng. It's rare for the Bulls to play three straight poor games. I see them bouncing back against Phoenix, which has been outstanding this season but hasn't laid this big of a number to a team as good as the Bulls all season. The Bulls are 7-1 following a loss, 6-2 ATS. Chicago also has covered in eight of its last 11 road games. The Bulls have matched up well against the Suns with their rugged front line winning eight of the past 10 meetings. Chicago has won and covered during its past four visits to Phoenix. The Bulls defeated Phoenix, 92-87, at home this season on Jan. 7. |
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02-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings +2 | Top | 70-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
On paper, the Kings don't look like the right side. They have lost seven in a row. But the Kings are home and the Bulls are dragging playing in their third consecutive road game.
During their losing streak the Kings have been beaten by the Rockets, Pacers in overtime, Nuggets, Jazz at Utah, Grizzlies and then road defeats to Dallas by four and to San Antonio by two this past Saturday after blowing a nine-point fourth quarter lead. Now the Kings finally step down in class. Rudy Gay is playing well. He's the best player on the court. It's a plus if DeMarcus Cousins can play, but I still like the Kings in this spot even without their rising big man star. |
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02-01-14 | Chicago Bulls -116 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Bulls have regrouped following the loss of Derrick Rose and the trading of Luol Deng. They completed January going 11-4.
Chicago is playing outstanding defense and is well rested having last played on Wednesday. If you discount their game against the high-scoring Clippers, the Bulls are giving up an average of 87.6 points per game in regulation during their last six matchups. The Bulls have revenge for a triple overtime home loss to the Pelicans. Chicago has defeated the Pelicans the past five times on the road. Anthony Davis should return to New Orleans' lineup, but the Pelicans remain without Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith. |
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01-31-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz +5 | Top | 95-90 | Push | 0 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
Golden State is off a highly-satisfying grudge match win against the Clippers last night.
Now the Warriors, playing for the third time in four days and without rest, have to travel into high altitude to catch the improved and well-rested Jazz. Utah has been idle since Monday. The Jazz are finally healthy. Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter are providing good inside production and Utah has an underrated backcourt with Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke. The Jazz have won seven of their last nine home contests. During this span, the Jazz have defeated the Nuggets by 15 and Thunder by 11. They are fully capable of defeating a tired Warriors squad that is in a letdown spot and despite their win last night are just 3-7 ATS during their past 10 games. |
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01-30-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Indiana Pacers -10 | Top | 102-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is the revenge game of the year for Indiana after the Suns dealt them their worst loss of the season, 124-100, in the desert just eight days ago. The Pacers had never surrendered that many points in a game under defensive-minded Frank Vogel.
The Suns were unconscious in that game making 11 of 16 3-point shots while shooting 54.2 percent from the floor. Now, though, the Pacers are back in Indiana where they have one of the toughest home-courts in the NBA and catch the Suns in a road weary situation and with their best player, Goran Dragic, banged-up. The Pacers have won 21 of their 22 home contests, including the past 10. The key question, though, is can they cover a double-digit spread? The evidence says yes. None of their last 10 road opponents have put up more than 92 points on them. The Pacers' average win margin at home this season is by 15.8 points. They have covered 77 percent of their last 31 games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Phoenix just beat Milwaukee, 126-117, last night. Now the Suns are playing their fourth road game in five days. They also are going from playing the worst team in basketball to the best team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA. Dragic injured his elbow late in the victory against the Bucks. So his status is up in the air. Keep in mind, too, the Suns are without guard Eric Bledsoe. The time to play this game is now as I can only see the line rising. |
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01-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The Mavericks have won the past seven times when hosting the Rockets. Dallas has covered in their last five home games versus Houston.
The rested Mavericks have been home since Sunday when they played. Houston gutted out a 97-90 victory against San Antonio last night despite missing its leading scorer James Harden, who has a thumb injury. I like the Mavericks in this spot even if Harden suits up. The Rockets are 5-11-1 ATS following a victory. Houston relies heavily on its high octane offense that ranks fifth averaging 104.4 points a game. However, the Rockets are averaging just 88.3 points on 40.4 percent shooting from the floor during their last three games. I like Dallas' advantage on the free throw line, too. The Mavericks rank third in the NBA in free throw percentage while Houston is 29th. |
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01-27-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 190.5 | 104-103 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
The Nets have stepped up defensively this month. They held Boston to 79 points on the road Sunday.
Toronto plays more half-court against Eastern Conference foes especially on the road. The Raptors have gone under in seven of their last eight away matchups. DeMar DeRozan's, Toronto's top offensive threat, is out with a foot injury. |
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01-27-14 | Toronto Raptors +3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Raptors have been a great road value covering 10 of their last 13 away matchups. They are an underrated team even without breakout star DeMar DeRozan, who is out with a foot injury. Toronto is tough on the boards, getting a strong year from point guard Kyle Lowry and excellent bench play following their deal of Rudy Gay to Sacramento.
Unsung Terrance Ross more than made up for DeRozan's absence in Toronto's last game scoring 51 points this past Saturday in a 126-118 home loss to the Clippers. The Nets are playing without rest and off an emotional road victory against the Celtics. Paul Pierce said it was the toughest game he ever had to play in. |
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01-26-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Cleveland Cavaliers -113 | 99-90 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Cleveland is on the upswing with Luol Deng while the Suns are regressing minus Eric Bledsoe and with opponents no longer taking them lightly.
Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers' key man, is stepping up averaging 11.3 points, 14.1 rebounds and shooting 53.2 percent from the floor during this month. Phoenix averages nearly 10 fewer points on the road per game than at home and is 1-4 in its last five away matchups. It's the Suns' first road game in two weeks. Cleveland has covered six of its last eight home games while covering 57 percent of its home contests this season. |
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01-26-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks OVER 207 | Top | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The oddsmaker has set this total way too low.
The Lakers' don't play defense under normal circumstances and now their legs are gone as this marks the final stop of a brutal seven-game road trip. LA is giving up an average of 114.4 points in its last 11 games. The Lakers have surrendered at least 109 points in eight of these 11 matchups. Carmelo Anthony scored 62 points in 38 minutes in his last game. That was against Charlotte, a team that gives up nine fewer points per game than the Lakers. The Lakers are full of one-way players such as Pau Gasol who are just offensive-minded. The Knicks rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. They've allowed an average of 107.1 points in their last six games. This is a nationally televised afternoon game at Madison Square Garden. You know these players are going to be thinking offense. |
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01-25-14 | Washington Wizards v. Utah Jazz +1 | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Washington is better on the road than at home. Understood. But I don't see the Wizards following up their impressive victory at Phoenix last night with another win against the rested Jazz, who are off embarrassing back-to-back losses to Minnesota.
Utah matches up better to Washington and hopes to have Derrick Favors in the lineup. He missed Utah's last game, this past Tuesday, with a hip injury. The Jazz do have Gordon Hayward back. Hayward and Trey Burke give the Jazz an underrated backcourt. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS following a victory. |
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01-25-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Toronto Raptors OVER 197.5 | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
Blake Griffin and DeMar DeRozan are producing monster offensive numbers. That bodes well for the over.
The Clippers haven't missed a beat minus Chris Paul. They have gone over in five of their last six and scored at least 109 points in six of their past eight. Toronto plays far more up-tempo against Western Conference clubs. This is reflected in the total going over in 11 of Toronto's last 15 versus Western clubs. |
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01-24-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +6 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 88-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
The Grizzlies have been idle since Monday. They draw Houston fat and happy following three straight double-digit victories.
Houston, though, has a thin bench. Ronnie Brewer, Terrence Jones and Francisco Garcia are all injured. The Grizzlies have had five days to stew about losing their last game, 95-92, to New Orleans. That snapped a five game winning streak. Memphis is back playing tough defense holding their last four foes to an average of 87.2 points. On the season, the Grizzlies are allowing six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Memphis has won nine of its last 13 road contests and is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 games. Marc Gasol has been back for more than a week now after missing 23 games with a knee injury. Gasol is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA, if not the best, and can keep Dwight Howard in check. |
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01-24-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -1 | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Both of these are real bad, but the Magic are healthier and in a far better situational spot.
The Lakers played hard last night against Miami. This is their sixth of seven straight road games. They have covered six in a row. The Lakers were taking seven or more points in each of their last five games. A flat spot is due especially when they need to win to cover. Los Angeles finishes its long road swing Sunday against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, a team and place the Lakers are far more likely to be motivated for than Orlando. The Lakers have lost nine of their last 12 are minus Kobe Bryant and have a cluster injury problem at point guard. Kendall Marshall is racking up major minutes with Steve Nash, Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar all out. He could wear down as the Lakers' long trip nears a conclusion. Orlando should be able to get its share of points. Rookie Victor Oladipo is beginning to live up to his hype coming off a 24-point scoring game and the Lakers were yielding an average of 114.5 points in their last 10 games. Opponents were connecting on 48.4 percent from the floor against the Lakers during this span. |
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01-23-14 | Los Angeles Lakers +11.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
Miami has been less than stellar surrendering more than 98 points per game. The Heat often are overpriced, as is the case again. Miami has failed to cover eight of the past 11 times when laying points at home.
The Heat have much bigger games on tap - facing San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Dwayne Wade is expected to sit out again. Miami is merely 6-6 without Wade. Sparked by unsung point Kendall Marshall, the Lakers have covered five in a row. In their last three games they have beaten Boston, Toronto and lost to Chicago in overtime by two. |
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01-22-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks OVER 204 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
The 76ers are the worst defensive team in the NBA giving up 109 points per game. They are the perfect patsy for the Knicks' offense to get back in gear.
The Knicks haven't been playing much defense either giving up an average of 109.3 points during their past four games. The 76ers need Michael Carter-Williams to have a big game. He'd been in a slump, but broke out of it with 31 points this past Monday against Washington. |
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01-21-14 | Orlando Magic +10 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Brooklyn is playing its finest basketball winning and covering seven of its last eight, including blasting the Knicks, 103-80, on Monday. That was the Nets' first game back from their London trip when they buried the Hawks.
Now the Nets get Orlando, which is 3-17 on the road. A letdown is in order for the Nets. The Magic rank a respectable 18th in defensive efficiency and their offense is much better with Arron Affalo back in the lineup. Affalo is Orlando's most consistent player and in the discussion for a berth in the All-Star Game. Orlando can't beat Western Conference clubs on the road. The Magic's horrendous road mark is skewed by just having lost all five away matchups on their recently concluded West Coast trip. However, Orlando can hold its own with the less athletic Eastern Conference clubs on the road. In their last eight road matchups versus Eastern Conference opponents, the Magic have posted victories against Atlanta, Chicago and Charlotte. They also lost by just two at Miami and in overtime at Cleveland. |
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01-19-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +16 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 82-110 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
The Spurs have injuries, just played a tough game against Portland and have Oklahoma City on deck in a game far more meaningful than this one. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS the past five times versus foes with a losing record.
Tony Parker is out with a bruised shin. The Spurs also are without contributing reserves Tiago Splitter and Danny Green. Milwaukee is healthier now and should beginning performing better because of it. John Henson and Larry Sanders, who is getting back untracked, provide the Bucks with two of the better shot blockers. Brandon Knight has been turning in some underrated performances at point guard. The Bucks aren't in action until Wednesday so a full effort should be forthcoming. |
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01-18-14 | Detroit Pistons +5.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Expect a much stronger effort from the Pistons after they were embarrassed, 110-89, at home last night by Utah. The Pistons had bee idle the previous four days and were rusty.
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Wizards have been better on the road. Detroit has a much better spread record on the road than when playing at home. Josh Smith had a bad game against the Jazz, but he's been playing much better. The Wizards aren't as strong as Detroit in the paint and on the glass and are in a letdown spot after impressive victories against the Bulls and Heat. |
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01-15-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Philadelphia 76ers +1 | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
You have to really pick your spots carefully if backing the 76ers. This is one of those spots.
The 76ers desperately need a win having lost four in a row, three straight at home. They have been idle since Saturday. Philadelphia catches Charlotte playing for the fourth time in six days and for the second consecutive night. The Bobcats beat the Knicks at home Tuesday night, a hugely satisfying win for them. The Bobcats shouldn't be that hungry going into this matchup. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road matchups and have lost five straight times at Philadelphia. This will be the fifth time since Dec. 20 that the Bobcats are playing without rest. They are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in those games. |
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01-15-14 | Miami Heat -5.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
After meeting with President Obama on Tuesday, the Heat don't want to embarrass themselves by losing to the Wizards. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Heat off losses to the Knicks and Nets. LeBron James fouled out for the first time in a regular season since 2008 in the loss to the Nets. Expect a big game from James.
The Heat haven't been healthy. Neither Dwayne Wade nor Shane Battier played against the Nets. Both are expected to play today. There's a chance, too, the Heat could get back injured Mario Chalmers. The Heat have only lost once to the Wizards with James in the lineup. Washington has struggled at home losing seven of the past eight times. The Wizards have also failed to cover six of the last eight times when playing a foe with a winning record. Miami is 17-6 ATS following a loss. |
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01-13-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 185.5 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Toronto has improved its defense since dealing Rudy Gay ranking among the leaders in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions. The under has cashed in six of Toronto's last seven games.
Milwaukee is last in field goal percentage and second from the bottom in scoring. The Bucks are averaging 79 points during their last three games. Don't expect the Bucks' scoring to start increasing by a lot either as Milwaukee is playing rookies in what clearly is a rebuilding season. The Bucks, though, are a respectable 14th in points allowed. They have the shot blockers to not give up easy points in the paint. Toronto is just 25th in field goal percentage. |
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01-11-14 | Boston Celtics v. Portland Trail Blazers -12 | Top | 104-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Kill spot for Portland. The Celtics nearly upset Golden State last night, but lost by two. Boston has now lost 13 in a row to Western Conference clubs. It's obvious the Celtics can't match Western Conference clubs' athleticism, speed and talent.
Portland is 16-7-1 ATS versus Eastern Conference foes. The Trail Blazers last played on Wednesday and won't play again until next Wednesday. Boston, though, is playing its fourth road game in five days and second in two nights. So both the situation and matchup are bad for the Celtics. |
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01-10-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
The Suns have been one of the biggest surprises in the league going 21-13. However, the Suns are 0-2 versus the Grizzlies losing to Memphis by an average of 14 points.
The Grizzlies are playing better, covering seven of their last nine including the past four, and catch the Suns dealing with a major injury. Phoenix is 5-5 without guard Eric Bledsoe, its second leading scorer. Bledsoe is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Suns are 5-5 without him. Phoenix pulled out a victory at Minnesota two nights ago scoring the last seven points en route to a 104-103 win against the Timberwolves. This spot isn't so favorable as it marks Phoenix's third road game in four days. The Suns are at Detroit on Saturday, which is an easier game for them so coach Jeff Hornacek may gear up for that matchup by playing his reserves more. Mike Conley is having a career year for the Grizzlies, who have received improved bench play and solid scoring and rebounding from veteran Zach Randolph. |
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01-08-14 | Washington Wizards v. New Orleans Pelicans -3 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are a horrible road team. But they have a winning spread record in New Orleans where they've won four in a row defeating the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Pistons.
Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely with a herniated disk, but center Jason Smith is back after missing seven of the last eight games with a shoulder injury. The Wizards are going to have trouble up front containing emerging superstar Anthony Davis. The Pelicans step way down in class after suffering losses to Indiana and Miami in their last two games. Washington's strength is its backcourt. But New Orleans' point guard Jrue Holiday is much better at home where he averages 17.4 points and has made better than 51 percent of his 3-point shots. |
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01-05-14 | Boston Celtics +9.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Oklahoma City isn't the same team without Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have lost their last two home games - falling to Portland and Brooklyn.
The Thunder should be primed to end their home losing streak, but have to deal with some fatigue playing for the third time in four days and second in two days after coming from 13 points behind in the fourth quarter to beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are playing tough defense holding their last foes - the Pelicans, Bulls and Hawks - to an average of 93.6 points. Boston usually can be counted on for a strong effort under first-year coach Brad Stevens. The Celtics have proven tough in defending against the 3-point shot ranking second in the league. |
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01-03-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Atlanta Hawks +3 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Atlanta is a much stronger team at home where it has gone 12-4 while averaging 103.3 points. The Hawks have covered 62 percent of their home contests this season.
Atlanta's star power is down with Josh Smith and Joe Johnson on other teams and Al Horford out for probably the season. But the Hawks are a decent team that is resourceful and knows how to spread the floor and frustrate a run-and-gun opponent such as Golden State. The Warriors are playing well, but this is a bad spot for them. They just upset Miami in overtime last night and now have to play again, their third road game in four days. All of their starters except one had to play big minutes in the victory against the Heat. Atlanta, on the other hand, comes in well rested and well prepared having last played on Tuesday. |
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12-28-13 | New Orleans Pelicans +9 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 98-107 | Push | 0 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Pelicans have won two in a row. Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans are back from injuries and playing well. Davis is going to be highly motivated
facing Dwight Howard. The Rockets are caught in a difficult situational spot. This is their third game in four days. The Rockets have beaten the Spurs and Grizzlies in their last two games. They have a far bigger matchup than this one on tap at Oklahoma City on Sunday. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory and missing injured point guard Patrick Beverly. The absence of Beverly means more minutes for the highly overrated Jeremy Lin. |
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12-27-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Charlotte Bobcats +9 | Top | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Classic sandwich spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are off an impressive 123-94 victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and have far more important games on tap - hosting Houston on Sunday and Portland on Tuesday.
This is a rest spot for the Thunder and it couldn't happen against a better 'dog team than the Bobcats, who have covered 11 of the past 13 times when taking points. The Thunder are red-hot, but the Bobcats are playing well, too, winning four of their last five. Charlotte has perhaps the most underrated defense in the league ranking third in fewest points and defensive field goal percentage. |
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12-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 207 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
The Clippers have been idle since Sunday. That's too much time off and means rust. The Clippers also have the largest drop on offensive efficiency of any team when playing on the road compared to being at home in Staples Center.
Los Angeles has been playing stronger defense lately under Doc Rivers, too. The under has cashed in seven of the Clippers' last 10 games. The Warriors have been playing much better, too, since their best defender, Andre Iguodala, returned from injury. They have held three of their last four foes under 40 percent shooting from the floor. |
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12-23-13 | Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -11 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
The new-look Raptors don't know they're supposed to be a lottery team after dealing Rudy Gay. They've won five of seven after nipping Dallas in overtime on the road then posting a monster upset of Oklahoma City on Sunday dealing the Thunder its first home defeat of the season.
But the timing is all wrong in this matchup for Toronto. They draw a rested and healthy Spurs team itching to get back on the winning side after an embarrassing 13-point home loss to Oklahoma City this past Saturday. The Spurs aren't in the class of Oklahoma City, Indiana, Portland and Miami right now. But they still are darn good and at their best crushing inferior foes covering four the past five times when laying more than nine points. San Antonio is 9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes and has beaten Toronto six straight times. The Spurs rank second in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Toronto is weak defending against 3-pointers and is a cold shooting team. The Raptors return home for the holidays after this matchup not playing again until Friday. I don't see them being as emotionally up for this matchup after two straight impressive road victories. It's going to take a strong effort for Toronto to hang close and that's not likely to happen. The Spurs should be up for this home matchup and they have the shooters to take advantage of Toronto's weaknesses. |
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12-21-13 | Dallas Mavericks +3 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Suns did it again last night. They came from behind to upset Denver on the road. The Mavericks also played last night, but they blew a huge lead and lost to Toronto in overtime.
So a focused effort should be forthcoming from the Mavericks, who have won and covered in 11 of their last 13 games versus Phoenix. Dallas has covered in five of its last six visits to Phoenix. The Mavericks have proven excellent value on the road covering 73 percent of their last 37 away contests. They also have been a huge money-maker without rest going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times in that situation. I like Phoenix far more in an underdog role. The Suns have lost straight-up four of the past five times when playing in the second of back-to-back games. |
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12-19-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors -3 | Top | 104-102 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Spurs just nipped the Warriors 76-74 at home last month. The Warriors were missing Stephen Curry in that game while the Spurs had Tony Parker.
Now that situation is reversed with the Spurs minus the injured Parker. The Warriors also have Andre Iguodala back in their lineup. The Spurs are playing their third road game in four nights and second in two nights after getting past Phoenix last night. San Antonio has lost 11 of the past 14 times in the last three years with zero rest as a road 'dog. This is a statement game for the Warriors, who now that they are healthy want to prove they can beat an elite team. This is their opportunity. |
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12-18-13 | Detroit Pistons +1 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Rookie coach Brad Stevens is dong a nice job with youthful Boston. But the Celtics aren't as good as Detroit and playing at home isn't enough to compensate for that. The Pistons, with their physical interior play, are a bad matchup for Boston.
The Pistons have proven themselves against elite competition. Just two nights ago, Detroit ended Indiana's 11-0 home star with a five-point victory outrebounding the physical Pacers, 55-40. This was just one day after the Pistons nearly upset Portland losing by two in overtime. Those two teams have the two best records in the NBA. They are a combined 42-8. Boston is a whole another planet away from being in the class of the Pacers and Trail Blazers. Already this month the Pistons have not only won at Indiana, but also at Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee. Detroit is the only team in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in rebounding margin, blocked shots and forced turnovers. The Pistons rate fourth in rebounding margin. Boston is 18th. The Celtics have proven vulnerable in the paint. The teams met in Detroit on Nov. 3 and the Pistons won 87-77 holding the Celtics to their lowest point total and forcing a Boston high in turnovers. The Celtics could not handle highly improved Andre Drummond, who had 10 dunks. |
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12-14-13 | Los Angeles Clippers -4 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The Wizards are off a tough road overtime loss to Atlanta last night. They nearly pulled the victory out after being down 15 points in the fourth quarter. Now they are playing without rest. The Clippers were idle last night, but struggled in a loss to the Nets on Thursday.
This is the Clippers' final game of a seven-game road trip. They are 3-3 during the trip. Following the loss to the Nets, Chris Paul said it was crucial the Clippers finish with a winning road trip and that this matchup against the Wizards is crucial. I'm taking Paul at his word. I'm expecting a focused and strong effort from the Clippers. Los Angeles has covered seven of the past 10 times following a non-cover. The Clippers and Doc Rivers have faced a lot of distractions on this road trip, including playing his former team the Celtics and two of his key former players, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, when playing the Nets. The Clippers are far more talented than the Wizards and a focused effort should enable them to cover this spread. |
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12-13-13 | Houston Rockets +3.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Golden State doesn't match up well to the Rockets. That's evident in the Rockets defeating the Warriors in 18 of the last 21 matchups while covering 15 times.
The latest matchup came this past Friday in Houston with the Rockets burying the Warriors, 105-83. Golden State lacks the perimeter defense to slow down James Harden, who scored 34 during the last meeting, nor the interior defenders to control Dwight Howard, who scored 22 points and pulled down 18 rebounds in that last game. Houston blocked nine shots in that victory and forced 22 turnovers. Houston lost to the Trail Blazers last night on the road. However, the Rockets have won four of five times this season when playing without rest and were idle this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. They also have Jeremy Lin back to bolster their backcourt. |
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12-13-13 | New York Knicks +4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
It may be a stretch to assume the Knicks have much pride, but they sure can't forget about being totally humiliated at home this past Sunday in losing 114-73 to Boston. That was the most lopsided loss of the season.
Feeling less pressure away from the Big Apple, the Knicks have a winning spread record on the road compared to being 2-9 ATS at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks surrender eight fewer points per game when on the road. Despite their slow start, the Knicks are just 2 1/2 games behind the Celtics in the weakened Atlantic Division. So the intensity level should be very high. The Knicks have covered in four of their last five visits to Boston. They also are 7-0 ATS the past seven times they've played on Friday. |
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12-11-13 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
The Kings are a much higher scoring team with the addition of Rudy Gay and Derrick Williams upgrading the frontline. They make DeMarcus Cousins even more of an inside scoring threat.
The Kings also are better off offensively with Isaiah Thomas now installed as the full-time point guard. Utah has picked up its scoring since Alec Burks became healthy. Utah has scored at least 98 points in five of its last seven. |
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12-10-13 | Phoenix Suns +3 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
So much for the Suns tanking. Phoenix is 11-9 and owners of a two-game win streak. I like them to keep their win streak going against a banged-up Lakers team breaking in a rusty Kobe Bryant.
Phoenix should be well-rested and prepared having been idle since beating the Raptors, 106-97, five days ago. The Lakers just lost to the Raptors, 106-94, at home this past Sunday in Bryant's season-debut. Bryant missed seven of nine shots from the field and turned the ball over eight times. It's going to take more than one game for Bryant to get comfortable returning from a torn Achilles' tendon. It's not just Bryant. The Lakers' backcourt is near depleted with Steve Nash sidelined and Jordan Farmar out with a hamstring injury. Steve Blake is their only available true point guard. Pau Gasol's defense has slipped as he deals with an ankle injury. The Lakers have received decent bench play, but Phoenix is deep, too, with eight players averaging 9.7 points a game or more. The Suns hold a strong backcourt edge with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. The Lakers have had matchup problems with Dragic in the past. Phoenix has tightened its defense under first-year head coach Jeff Hornacek ranking first in defending against 3-pointers and rating 10th in defensive field-goal percentage. The Suns held Houston to 88 points in its second-to-last game. The Rockets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game. The Suns have covered 82 percent of their past 11 road games going 9-2 ATS. Phoenix also is 5-1 ATS in its past six meetings versus the Lakers. |
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12-01-13 | New Orleans Pelicans v. New York Knicks +1 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
Yes, the Knicks are mired in a deep slump having dropped eight in a row.
But I see this as a stop-the-pain game for New York. Many of the Knicks' losses during their losing streak were against foes on major upticks. The Knicks very well could have won some of those games losing to Indiana in overtime and to the Nuggets, who are playing outstanding now with five straight victories, by two when Carmelo Anthony missed a shot in the final seconds. Now the Knicks return home following that narrow loss to Denver desperate for a victory. They draw the Pelicans, a foe they've beaten eight of the last nine times. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS on the road with straight-up away losses to the Jazz, Suns and Magic. The Pelicans buried the 76ers, 121-105, in their last road contest. However, New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory of more than 10 points. The Knicks are coming very close to ending their losing streak. This is that time. |
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11-27-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
By now it's obvious that the 76ers aren't going to be the worst team in the NBA as some had projected before the season. Philadelphia is a respectable 6-9 and well-rested for this matchup against Orlando, which is in a bad situational spot.
The 76ers have been idle since Saturday. Orlando snapped a 17-game road losing streak and an 11-game losing streak to the Hawks by upsetting Atlanta, 109-92, Tuesday night. The Magic now return home for their fourth game in five days. The Magic have failed to cover in their last five home matchups. Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS on the road this season. The 76ers aren't likely to have Thaddeus Young back. But center Spencer Hawes and Tony Wroten are expected back after missing the 76ers' last game. Hawes is averaging 26.5 points on 72.4 percent shooting from the floor and 11 rebounds per game during his last two games. The 76ers rank eighth in scoring at 103.7 points per game. The Magic are 0-8 when surrendering more than 92 points a game. |
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11-25-13 | Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 83-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Bulls were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Clippers on Sunday in their first game without injured Derrick Rose. They are now 0-3 on their road trip and in desperate need of a victory.
Now comes Utah, a team the Bulls destroyed 97-73 earlier this month at home. Utah is 1-14. The Jazz have lost 10 of those games by double-digits. They have lost six in a row. The Jazz are playing the lottery game in what is shaping up to be a huge draft. The Bulls have done well without Rose before. They still have a far more talented lineup than Utah with Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, Kirk Hinrich and Mike Dunleavy. |
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11-25-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | 110-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Dallas nearly beat the Nuggets in Denver on Saturday losing 102-100 following a late 3-point basket by Denver in the final moments.
Now the teams meet again. This time in Dallas where the Mavericks are 7-0 and averaging 111.4 points while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Denver isn't nearly as good on the road. The Nuggets have dropped four of five away games surrendering 114 points or more in more than half of those matchups. Dallas missed 14 of 21 shots from beyond the arc against the Nuggets on Saturday. The Mavericks shoot much better from 3-point range, especially at home. The Mavericks also rank No. 2 in the NBA in free throw percentage at 81 percent while the Nuggets rank 27th making less than 70 percent from the charity stripe. |
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11-22-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Minnesota Timberwolves -9 | 81-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
The marketplace is steaming Minnesota and the money is right. The Nets are in free fall having lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The Nets won't have Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, Andrei Kirilenko and Jason Terry. All are banged-up. The Nets lack any kind of scoring inside the paint minus Lopez.
Minnesota is not going to be in a charitable mood. The Timberwolves have lost two in a row. This is a Stop-The-Pain game for them. The Timberwolves are a playoff caliber team with a healthy Kevin Love. |
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11-22-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | 102-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
After a slow start under new coach David Joerger the Grizzlies are playing their best ball. They are coming off a 4-0 road trip that included victories against the Clippers and Warriors.
San Antonio is hot, too, with eight straight victories. But the Spurs have been beating cupcakes with all but one of their victories during their winning streak coming against below .500 teams. The Grizzlies desperately want to win this game. They've been pointing to this home matchup ever since being swept in the Western Conference finals by San Antonio and also losing their season-opener on the road to the Spurs. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, the Grizzlies' main two key inside forces, are playing well and the Grizzlies are back playing strong defense. This is the right spot for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs. |
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11-22-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New Orleans Pelicans -7 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The Pelicans are playing their best ball with the return of underrated Ryan Anderson, their leading scorer from last season. Cleveland is down in the dumps with morale issues.
Anderson has given a big boost to New Orleans' offense which is averaging 120 points in its last two games. Anderson being back has freed up emerging Anthony Davis to be even better. The Cavaliers were expected to be improved this season, even a playoff contender for the first time in the post-LeBron James era, but have failed to meet expectations at 4-8. They are 1-6 on the road. Cleveland has failed to cover in eight of its last nine road games. Andrew Bynum has done nothing and Dion Waiters has regressed shooting less than 38 percent. This is my Play of the Month. |
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11-21-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
This is a big early-season revenge spot for the rested Thunder. They lost to the Clippers, 111-103, on Nov. 13. That was the game where Serge Ibaka and Matt Barnes got ejected for fighting.
The Thunder didn't have Ibaka for the second half in that game and also was missing Kendrick Perkins, who was attending his grandfather's funeral. Both will be in action tonight for the Thunder, who have been idle for the past two days. The Clippers had to play last night and nipped Minnesota, 102-98, on the road. Oklahoma City has been pointing to this matchup ever since that controversial game eight days ago against the Clippers. The Thunder are healthy this time around and rested. |
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11-20-13 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic +7.5 | 120-92 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
This game means far more in prestige for Orlando than Miami. The Magic have had a four-day layoff to rest and game plan for this matchup. The Heat had to play on Tuesday night, rolling over Atlanta, 104-88, at home.
This marks the Heat's fourth game in six days and second in two nights. Miami is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games at Orlando. The Magic have won four of their six home contests with two of their home victories coming against the Clippers and Nets. Orlando ranks ninth in field goal percentage defense and is 10th in field goal percentage. |
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11-20-13 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | 98-91 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
Cleveland is 3-1 at home, beat Washington on the road this past Saturday and catch the Wizards coming off a 104-100 overtime win at home last night against Minnesota.
The Cavaliers are the superior team and in a good situational spot. They've defeated the Wizards four consecutive times. The Cavaliers are healthier than Washington, too, with guard Dion Waiters returning to practice after missing the past two games. The Wizards have been without Trevor Ariza in their last two games. Cleveland had posted three consecutive home victories beating Brooklyn, Minnesota and Philadelphia before being upset by Charlotte. That home loss to the Bobcats should be a wake-up call. The Cavaliers don't want to be upset at home a second straight time. |
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11-19-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Sacramento Kings -118 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Phoenix has surprised a lot of people opening 5-4. The Kings have been their usual disappointing selves opening 2-7.
But I like the Kings to beat Phoenix in this home-and-away matchup. The two teams meet again Wednesday night in Phoenix. The Kings don't want to be swept by the Suns. Phoenix has dropped three of four on the road. The Suns are 5-15-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento is coming off a 97-86 Sunday night home loss to Memphis. The Kings caught the Grizzlies at a bad time as Memphis is heating up after a slow start. New Kings coach Michael Malone pulled four of his starters just five minutes into the third quarter. I'm looking for the Kings to be fired-up for this game. They have a chance to reward their loyal fans against a bottom-tier team they have defeated during the past two meetings. Sacramento is 7-2 ATS the last nine times after losing by double-digits. The Suns have trouble matching up against DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging 24.8 points in six home games against Phoenix. |
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11-15-13 | Brooklyn Nets -105 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The Nets are playing well below their capabilities while the Suns have been just the exact opposite. I see that changing in this matchup.
The Nets received a rude wake-up call at Sacramento two nights ago getting blasted by the lowly Kings, 107-86. The Nets have a lot of prideful veterans and that loss stung. Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS following a loss. One bright spot for the Nets is center Brook Lopez, he could dominate against the Suns' weak inside defense. This is the middle game of the Nets' three-game West Coast trip. Their trip concludes tomorrow night against the Clippers, a much more difficult game for the Nets. This is the game Brooklyn needs to win - and its players know it. |
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11-15-13 | Portland Trail Blazers -119 v. Boston Celtics | 109-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers enter Boston playing at a high level having won four in a row. The Celtics don't have anyone close to matching LaMarcus Aldridge and Damion Lillard. The Trail Blazers also have been getting strong contributions from Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez inside.
I believe the Celtics are far closer to the team that lost 89-83 to Charlotte at home two days ago than the one that upset the Heat on a buzzer-beater. Portland has not been a good road team traditionally, but the Trail Blazers have won their past two away games beating the Nuggets by 15 and Kings by 11. |
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11-15-13 | Chicago Bulls +1 v. Toronto Raptors | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Chicago hasn't played well on the road and Derrick Rose is slowed by a hamstring injury. But given four days to rest and prepare for this matchup I trust defensive whiz Tom Thibodeau to have an excellent, specific game plan to stop the Raptors.
The Bulls last played on Monday. They won't lack for energy or motivation having dropped their past two games to Toronto. The Bulls are holding foes to 78.3 points at home on 35.4 percent shooting from the floor so their defense still is there. The Raptors need a big game from Rudy Gay, who has shot less than 40 percent career-wise versus Chicago. Gay is having a terrible shooting season making only 36.5 percent from the floor. |
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11-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a much bigger game for the Clippers than it is for the Thunder. The Clippers have much to prove here after being swept in the season series by Oklahoma City last season.
The Clippers' offense is in high gear leading the NBA in scoring at just under 110 points a game. Their defense has shown improvement the past four games. Chris Paul is playing better than any point guard. He's leading the league in assists at 12.4 and has produced a double-double in each of Los Angeles' first eight games. The Clippers have yet to lose in three home games. They've blown out the Rockets by 19 and Warriors by 11 at Staples Center. The emergence of center DeAndre Jordan gives the Clippers one of the top rebounding tandems in the NBA. Both Jordan and Blake Griffin are high-percentage scorers. The Thunder didn't have to game plan against Jordan last season. Now Jordan's a factor. Oklahoma City is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games. The Thunder have failed to cover seven of the past eight times when going up against an opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook has returned from knee surgery, but is struggling to find his shooting touch hitting less than 34 percent from the field. By the end of the season, Oklahoma City very well could be the superior team. But right now this is the Clippers' spot. |
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11-11-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -8 | 104-110 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
The Rockets shouldn't lack for motivation after losing consecutive home games to the Lakers and Clippers. They catch the Raptors playing their fifth game in seven days and third in four days.
After this matchup, the Rockets go on the road for two games. So they should be fully focused for a kill spot. Toronto's big star is Rudy Gay, but its most irreplaceable player is point guard Kyle Lowry. Not only is Lowry playing with a sprained tendon in his finger, but he sprained his ankle in the Raptors' last game this past Saturday. The Raptors would take a serious hit if Lowry can't go lacking quality backups at point guard. Lowry is expected to play. How effective he is, though, remains to be seen. Jonas Valanciunas hasn't been playing well and now he's matched up against Dwight Howard. The home team has dominated in the series going 10-1-1 ATS. Houston has beaten the Raptors the past six times when hosting them. |
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11-11-13 | Orlando Magic +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Magic are angry after losing to Boston, 91-89, at home this past Friday. The Magic felt they should have won despite shooting a season-low 20 percent from 3-point range. Orlando also committed a season-high 20 turnovers against Boston.
I like the Magic's young talent more than Boston's and the situation is good, too, for the Magic. The Celtics are off their biggest win of the season, a stunning 111-110 road victory against the two-time defending world champion Heat scoring the win in dramatic fashion on a three-pointer at the buzzer. The Magic didn't play well in their last game, a 104-94 road loss to Atlanta two nights ago. Orlando was playing in the second of back-to-back games in that loss. In their previous four games, though, the Magic held the Pelicans, Nets, Clippers and Celtics to a combined average of 89.2 points. Not one of those teams scored more than 91 points on Orlando. The Clippers shot just 37.9 percent from the floor against the Magic. That also is the Clippers' season low point total. |
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11-08-13 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 191 | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Bobcats winning, 102-97, for a total of 199 points.
I see at least that many points being scored in this rematch. The Knicks shot only 42.7 percent from the floor. Carmelo Anthony was 10-for-28 from the field. Raymond Felton was 6-for-15 from the floor. The Knicks had only two fast-break points. The pace should be faster this time around without Tyson Chandler, a strong defensive player and shot blocker who has a limited offensive game. He's out with a broken bone in his leg suffered against the Bobcats. Charlotte shot worse than New York hitting only 42.3 percent from the floor. The Bobcats should find scoring easier without Chandler patrolling the middle. |
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11-06-13 | Washington Wizards -125 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
The winless Wizards are already desperate for a victory. They have been idle since Sunday and won't lack for motivation in this early-season revenge game.
The 76ers have been the surprise talk of the league reeling off three wins to open the season, including shocking the Heat and Bulls. But the 76ers' bubble burst in a big way during their last game, a 20-point home loss to the Warriors two days ago. The Wizards have a far stronger backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal than the 76ers and a better bench. Philadelphia's reserves are being outscored by three points a game despite the team's early success. It's a plus for the Wizards if Nene is able to play. He's been out with a calf injury. The Wizards are an emerging team that has been saddled by their traditional slow start. The 76ers have been playing way, way above their heads. I look for a correction here with the Wizards getting their first victory. |
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11-06-13 | Toronto Raptors -130 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
The Bobcats shocked the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last night, while Toronto lost a tough game to the two-time defending world champion Heat in a game closer than the final score indicates.
Now the two teams get together tonight in a matchup that favors Toronto. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS following a loss. They catch the Bobcats in a rare letdown spot. The young Bobcats are not mature enough yet to avoid this kind of letdown situation. The Raptors are the better team and match up well against the Bobcats especially if Charlotte center Al Jefferson is forced to miss a fourth straight game due to a sprained ankle. Another Bobcats big man, Brandon Haywood, is out. Toronto ranks No. 1 in rebounding margin. Charlotte is 20th. The Raptors should control the boards. DeMar DeRozan is off to a hot scoring start for Toronto. The Bobcats have to watch out for him and Rudy Gay. Charlotte's leading scorer, Kemba Walker, could be less than 100 percent after injuring his shoulder last night versus New York. |
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11-05-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Sacramento Kings -128 | 105-100 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
When the Kings are favored against a playoff team you know something is up. What's up are the Kings are motivated to reward their loyal fans with a strong effort and to take advantage of a struggling Hawks squad.
The Hawks are in transition with a new coach. They have looked confused and unimpressive in dropping their first two road games. Atlanta is giving up 106 points per game and allowing foes to hit 48 percent of their shots from the floor. The Kings' morale is much better now that they know they are staying in Sacramento. They want to atone for a nine-point loss to the Clippers in their last home game. The Kings match up well to the Hawks. Atlanta is vulnerable to smaller lineups like the Kings with Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll in its starting lineup. Atlanta has failed to cover in its last six road contests. |
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11-05-13 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -121 | Top | 116-101 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Portland is playing well and is in a favorable situational spot. The Trail Blazers are off impressive victories against the Nuggets and Spurs. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday at home so they are well-rested and have had ample time to game plan for the Rockets. Portland doesn't play again until Friday so an all-out effort should be forthcoming.
The Rockets, on the other hand, suffered their first loss last night giving up 137 points on the road to the Clippers. This marks their fourth game in five days. The Rockets could limit Dwight Howard's minutes because of this since Howard has had back problems in the past. He's the league's top rebounder, but one of the worst free throw shooters in the league. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damion Lillard are off to fast starts entering the week as the No. 1 scoring duo in the NBA. They've helped Portland average 106.3 points a game and ranked fourth in 3-point percentage and No. 6 in assists. Aldridge is the NBA's fourth leading scorer at 25.7 points a game. Beating Portland at Rose Garden is always a difficult task. It's made worse for the Rockets because of the fatigue factor and the Trail Blazers playing well. |
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11-01-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 198 | 113-98 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
Denver is much more defensive-minded and not nearly as up-tempo under new head coach Brian Shaw.
Shaw is emphasizing pounding the ball into the post rather than play at break neck speed, the style point guard Ty Lawson prefers. It's going to take the Nuggets a while to make this adjustment. This is just their second game. In their first game, they scored only 88 points against Sacramento, which has been one of the worst defensive teams. The Nuggets are missing injured Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Those two were their second and third leading scorers last season. Shaw is a defensive-minded coach and the Nuggets held the Kings to 90 points and 40.7 percent shooting from the floor. |
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11-01-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -5 | 113-98 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
The Nuggets aren't fully healthy and are learning a new offense, but they're still a several levels better than Portland.
The Trail Blazers have lost their last 14 regular season games. They are 2-12 ATS. The Trail Blazers showed their late season collapse wasn't a fluke by losing 104-91 to the Suns in their opener two days ago. The Suns could be one of the three worst teams in the NBA. The Nuggets have owned the Trail Blazers in Denver winning 18 of the last 19 times there, including the past nine. The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS during their last nine road games versus the Nuggets. |
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11-01-13 | Miami Heat -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 100-101 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The Nets have loaded up with veterans in order to make a run at Miami. But the time isn't right for Brooklyn to beat the Heat.
Miami is off an embarrassing and stunning 114-110 road loss at Philadelphia this past Wednesday. There may not be a bigger upset all season. The Heat will be out for redemption and have Dwayne Wade, who didn't play against Philadelphia, in this matchup. When motivated, the Heat can bury any team. The Nets are breaking in a number of new players. They have yet to establish any rhythm and chemistry because star point guard Deron Williams has been extremely limited with an ankle sprain. Williams played less than 30 minutes during preseason and only could log 22 minutes in the Nets' opener, a loss to Cleveland. Williams won't play big minutes either in this game. The Nets also won't have head coach Jason Kidd for a second straight game. Kidd is serving the second of a two-game suspension. The Heat have owned the Nets. They haven't lost to the Nets since 2009. Miami swept the Nets last season winning the three games by an average of 21 points. |
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11-01-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189.5 | 105-98 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Both teams are devoid of star offensive players. They are two rebuilding clubs with point guard problems and a bunch of lunch pail type of bangers in the front court.
Rajon Rondo remains out indefinitely for Boston leaving the Celtics without a true point guard. The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with Brandon Knight and Luke Ridnour unlikely to play. |