02-05-16 |
Pacers +5.5 v. Hawks |
|
96-102 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are playing better and their lineup is littered with All-Stars. But Indiana is a bad matchup for Atlanta because of the Hawks' rebounding problems. This is proven in the two matchups played this season. The Pacers won 93-87 on Dec. 28 as a 1 1/2-point home favorite and buried the Hawks, 111-92, just eight days ago as 3-point home chalk. Now look at the line. I think it's out of whack. Rookie center Myles Turner is showing big improvement for the Pacers, while the Hawks will be down one of their top big man reserves in Tiago Splitter, out with a hip injury. The Pacers are at their best versus Eastern Conference opponents covering 76 percent of their last 26 games against fellow conference foes.
|
02-04-16 |
Knicks v. Pistons -4 |
|
105-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
Detroit is very underrated at home where it is 22-8-1 ATS the past 31 times for 73 percent. The Pistons are particularly strong at home when going against weak opponents covering eight of the past nine times versus foes with a losing road mark. New York has lost 16 of its 25 road contests and is 1-6 in its last seven overall games. The Knicks' morale and confidence is at low ebb. New York is hitting the wall nearing All-Star break having lost four times by double digits during their current 1-6 swoon and have been short-handed in the backcourt with Jose Calderon missing the last four games due to a groin injury. Yet early money has been on the Knicks. Calderon could return for this game and the Pistons won't have shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who injured his groin in the Pistons' road loss last night against the Celtics. Expect Detroit to bounce back, though, even minus Caldwell-Pope. The Pistons should be super motivated as this is the first time they are playing in a game televised by TNT since 2009. Detroit also has revenge for a 108-96 road loss to the Knicks on Dec. 29.
|
02-03-16 |
Pacers -6.5 v. Nets |
|
114-100 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
The apathetic Nets are limping toward the All-Star break having lost 14 of their last 16. They also have dropped 15 of their last 17 at home. Brooklyn is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games. Indiana is a far better team and will be fired-up after suffering a tough overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday that halted their two-game win streak. The Pacers have gotten more physical on their front line and Paul George and Monta Ellis are due for big scoring games. Indiana is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games versus Eastern Conference foes while the Nets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Eastern Conference foes. The Pacers defeated the Nets, 104-97, at home in their last meeting on Dec. 18 despite not being pleased with the officiating, shooting 41.6 percent from the floor and missing 21 of 28 shots from 3-point range.
|
02-01-16 |
Raptors v. Nuggets OVER 204 |
|
93-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are studs and Toronto is an underrated offensive team. This line is another example of that.
The Raptors have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The over has cashed in seven of Toronto's last nine road contests.
The Nuggets aren't playing good defense during this span surrendering an average of 111.4 points during their last eight games. Denver, though, has scored 100 or more points during its last eight games. The over has cashed in six of Denver's past seven home games.
|
02-01-16 |
Bulls +4.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
96-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are due to play better and Utah hasn't won three games in a row all season. Chicago should be fired-up after giving up an embarrassing 69 points in the second half during its 120-93 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That was a day game giving the Bulls a few extra hours in this second of consecutive games. The Bulls should be accustomed to the time difference as this is their third consecutive West Coast game. Chicago opened its road trip with a 114-91 victory against the Lakers this past Thursday. The Jazz are healthier than they have been, but I like the Bulls' talent better especially in the backcourt with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. The Jazz have played a very weak recent schedule - having faced the Timberwolves this past Friday in their last game, Hornets twice, Pistons, Nets, Knicks, Lakers and Kings. Detroit is the only one of those teams above .500. Utah is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest. The Bulls have beaten Utah in seven of the past nine meetings.
|
02-01-16 |
Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 198.5 |
|
97-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
Neither team is in good offensive form. Dallas hasn't broken the 92-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Hawks are averaging 87.3 points during their last three games. If you discount their game against the Warriors, the Mavericks are giving up 82.3 points per game during their last three games. The under has cashed in seven of Atlanta's last nine games. The under has cashed in eight of Dallas' past 10 road games. The under also has won the past four times these teams have met. Expect a slow pace with each team having played yesterday and trying to work out their offensive problems. The Hawks are in action for the fourth time in six days. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in seven days. So the tempo does not figure to be fast.
|
01-31-16 |
Warriors -10 v. Knicks |
Top |
116-95 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 34 m |
Show
|
I see a kill spot here for the Warriors after they narrowly escaped the 76ers last night, winning 108-105. The Warriors almost blew a 24-point lead. Look for a more focused effort after that scare especially now that they've settled into East Coast time playing their second of three road games in a row. Stephen Curry and Co. would like to prove themselves in the media center of the country with a big performance. The Warriors could be at full strength, too, with center Festus Ezeli possibly returning after missing two games with an injured knee and Andre Iguodala back after being rested for the first time this season in last night's game. Golden State is 10-1 when playing without rest. The Warriors also are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 11-2 ATS following a non-cover. The Warriors lead the league in scoring and have been at their offensive-best averaging a staggering 122.3 points in their last seven games. The Knicks are much improved this season, but they have only managed to defeat the hapless Suns during their last five games.
|
01-30-16 |
Kings v. Grizzlies -140 |
Top |
117-121 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 40 m |
Show
|
Memphis is coming on winning six of its last seven. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 home games and have scored at least 101 points in each of their past seven games. Since December, the Grizzlies' defensive statistics would rank among the top three. Sacramento ranks last defensively surrendering an NBA-worst 107.9 points per contest. That's nine more points per game than Memphis allows. The Kings are in terrible form, too, yielding an average of 118.3 points in their last three games. This marks the Kings' third consecutive road game. They've lost their last two by an average of 12 points falling to the Pelicans - who were missing three starters - and to the Trail Blazers. Sacramento returns home to face the Bucks on Monday so focus may be an issue for a team that has a history of being weak on the road and lacking maturity. The Kings have dropped their last 10 games at Memphis. Sacramento has been minus its second-leading scorer, Rudy Gay, for the last two games because of an eye injury. Gay, however, is likely to play against the Grizzlies. Kings coach George Karl also wasn't at practice on Friday because of gastroenteritis.
|
01-30-16 |
Warriors v. 76ers +18 |
|
108-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
Golden State has failed to cover in nine of the last 12 times it has played an opponent with a losing home record.
The 76ers are better than perceived with the additions of Ish Smith at point guard and Mike D'Antoni to the assistant coaching ranks. Since Smith came on board, the 76ers have gone 6-10 straight-up and 10-6 against the spread. Two of the 76ers' losses during this time came in overtime.
Philly has had two days off to gear up for this ultimate home challenge. The 76ers are idle then until Wednesday so a full effort should be forthcoming while the Warriors play at the Knicks on Sunday.
|
01-29-16 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 192 |
|
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
Minnesota is giving up an average of 113.6 points in its last three games and isn't trustworthy defensively on the road where the over has cashed in all but one of the last eight times when the Timberwolves have played a foe with a winning home record. The Timberwolves are getting major scoring contributions from their young players and Ricky Rubio is doing a good job setting up his teammates.
Utah has picked up its offense scoring 101 or more points in six of its last seven games. The over has cashed 12 of the last 15 times the Jazz have hosted the Timberwolves.
|
01-29-16 |
Nets v. Mavs OVER 199 |
|
79-91 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
The last time these two teams met was Dec. 23. Dallas nipped Brooklyn, 119-118. While I don't expect that many points to be scored, I do believe this game will go over 200 points. The Nets aren't winning, but they are playing at a faster pace under interim coach Tony Brown, who spent three seasons as an assistant coach to Mavericks head man Rick Carlisle. Dallas is surrendering an average of 110.3 points during their last four games. This has coincided with underrated center Zaza Pachulia missing the past four games because of a sore Achilles. Brook Lopez should be line for a big game if Pachulia remains out. Dallas is averaging 105.5 points in its last six games. Chandler Parsons is playing his best ball during this stretch averaging 25.4 points on 58.7 percent shooting during his last five games. Dirk Nowitzki should have more energy having been rested in Dallas' last game this past Wednesday and Deron Williams is due to face his former teammates for the first time having missed the earlier meeting. Williams certainly won't lack incentive. The Nets haven't been playing any defense lately allowing 107 points and 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during their last seven games.
|
01-29-16 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 222 |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
It's not that I think Houston and Oklahoma City aren't going to score a lot of points. But a lot has to go right offensively for these teams to combine to reach a total this high. It didn't happen when they first met this season with the Rockets winning, 110-105, on Nov. 2. In fact, rarely have these teams gone over when meeting. The under has cashed 10 of the past 14 times in the series, including six of the last seven times in Oklahoma City. Houston's defense should be better with Dwight Howard patrolling the middle again after returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for three games. The Thunder's offense may be off playing for the fourth time in six days and being home for the first time in a week following a four-game road trip. Oklahoma City should have great defensive motivation after giving up 120 points or more in back-to-back games for the first time since 2009. The Thunder are justifiably getting ripped for this - and it's also a factor in the oddsmaker assigning such a high total. The Thunder's interior defense is better with big man Steven Adams back healthy and prepared to log big minutes again.
|
01-29-16 |
Magic +8.5 v. Celtics |
|
94-113 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
No knock here on Boston. The Celtics are playing well winning seven of their last nine. But this line is inflated. Yes, the record shows the Magic are 1-7 during their past eight games with just a victory against the lowly Nets during this span. But a closer look shows the Magic having lost their last game to the Bucks, 107-100, this past Tuesday. That score is misleading as the Magic trailed by just one point with 30 seconds left. Only two of Orlando's recent seven defeats have been by a lopsided margin. The Magic fell to the Wizards - a team they never beat - by six points and lost in overtime to the Raptors, Hornets and Grizzlies on the road. The Magic have excellent young talent. Their talent is too good to keep losing. Orlando has a strong recent history against Atlantic Division foes covering eight of the last 10 times against them. Nobody has a higher percentage from 3-point range since Jan. 1 than the Magic's Victor Oladipo. The Magic have been idle the past two days so there should be no excuses. Boston is playing well offensively, but giving up an average of 102.4 points in regulation during its last seven games. It's going to be difficult for the Celtics to cover this big of a margin when allowing that many points per game. Note that the teams turn right around and meet again on Sunday in Orlando. So there shouldn't be any running up a score and showing off. The Celtics would be happy to just come away with a victory.
|
01-27-16 |
Mavs +18 v. Warriors |
|
107-127 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
Zaza Pachulia, Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris aren't going to play for Dallas, which is playing without rest. Golden State is awesome. But c'mon this kind of point spread is reserved for dregs like the Suns and 76ers. The Mavericks are a borderline playoff team with prideful veterans and a deep backcourt. They actually beat the Warriors, 114-91, in Dallas back on Dec. 30. The Warriors have to feel good crushing the Spurs, 120-90, in their last game. They can't be as high for this matchup. The Warriors have their own big man injury, too, as center Festus Ezeli is doubtful with a knee injury.
|
01-27-16 |
Thunder v. Wolves +8 |
Top |
126-123 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
Spot, situation and double revenge motivation factor heavily in this matchup for the Timberwolves. Minnesota is home where it has beaten the Suns and Grizzlies in its last two games, rested after being idle on Tuesday and psyched to beat the Thunder after losing to them twice already this month and nine times in a row. Oklahoma City is playing its fourth away game in six days. The Thunder had to go overtime to get past the Knicks, 128-122, at Madison Square Garden last night. All but one of the Thunder's starters played at least 42 minutes. Center Steven Adams returned from a two-game absence and logged more than 35 minutes. He might not be able to play nearly that many minutes in this short turnaround. The Thunder are without guard Andre Roberson. He was replaced by Dion Waiters, who played a season-high 42:31 minutes. The Thunder's defense is down without Robertson and it will be weakened even more if Adams is limited. The Timberwolves like to compare themselves to the Thunder with their promising second-year players Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns. The hope for the Timberwolves is these players can become stars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now here Wiggins, LaVine and Towns have a chance to compete against their benchmark right at home. All three are playing well with Towns averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last four games, Wiggins is scoring at a 23.5 per game clip in his last four contests and LaVine is averaging 17 points during his last four games. Focus, along with fatigue, could be a problem for the Thunder. They return home after being gone for nearly a week following the game and host the Rockets, a far tougher challenge, on Friday.
|
01-26-16 |
Kings v. Blazers UNDER 214 |
|
97-112 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a big game for both teams with the Kings ahead of the Trail Blazers by one game for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Kings rely onDeMarcus Cousins as their main offensive cog. Cousins is coming off an NBA season-high 56 points. That occurred last night in double overtime. Cousins isn't going to be able to log major minutes and his offensive figures to be off because of the fatigue factor.
The teams last met on Dec. 27 and there were just 192 points scored between the two teams. The under has cashed 14 of the last 16 times the teams have met in Portland.
|
01-26-16 |
Thunder v. Knicks OVER 208.5 |
Top |
128-122 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Knicks should bring plenty of offensive energy into tonight's game having been idle for two days. Those two days off are huge, too, for Carmelo Anthony, who has had a chance to rest his sore knees. The Knicks have gone over 57 percent of the time at home this season, including 10 of their last 12. Before having an off-game against the Clippers during their last home games, the Knicks had averaged 112.7 points during their previous six games at Madison Square Garden. The Thunder rank No. 2 in scoring. In their last four games, they have allowed 110, 109, 109 and 106 points. Part of why the Thunder's defense hasn't been very good lately is injuries to big man Steven Adams and backcourt defensive specialist Andre Roberson. Neither is expected to play today. Their replacements are more offensive-minded. The over has cashed in five of Oklahoma City's past six road games.
|
01-25-16 |
Celtics v. Wizards -130 |
|
116-91 |
Loss |
-130 |
10 h 29 m |
Show
|
The Wizards are well rested having last played on Wednesday and are in triple revenge mode with the latest defeat to the Celtics coming nine days ago at home, 119-117, in a physical and intense matchup. Washington lost that game minus Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. Beal is back now and there's a chance Porter returns, too. The Wizards are playing better winning five of their last seven. Their last three victories have been against the Bulls, Pacers and Heat. The Celtics carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and second straight day. Boston beat the hapless 76ers on Sunday. That marked just the Celtics' second win during their last seven road matchups. This also marks Boston's sixth game in nine days.
|
01-25-16 |
Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-91 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
Oddsmakers were influenced in making this line so high because of the team's last meeting, which the Celtics won, 119-117, just nine days ago. The dynamics are different this time around with different players in the lineup and injured players returning. That last game left a lot of lingering resentment so both teams should produce focused defensive efforts. Washington has gone under in nine of its last 11 at Verizon Center. Boston ranks No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Wizards rely on their perimeter shooting. The under has cashed seven of the last 10 times the Celtics have played on zero rest. There's a chance the Wizards get back Drew Gooden. That would be good for the under as he's a plodding big man, who likes to hog the ball.
|
01-24-16 |
Clippers v. Raptors OVER 204.5 |
Top |
94-112 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
Both teams are playing well - winning with offense. The Clippers are averaging 110.2 points during their last 14 games while the Raptors are putting up an average of 108.4 points in their last five games. Chris Paul is back playing at a high level for the Clippers. DeMar DeRozan has been hot for the Raptors scoring 30 or more points in his last three games.
|
01-23-16 |
Pistons v. Nuggets OVER 206.5 |
Top |
101-104 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
Detroit's defense has been slipping lately. The Pistons are giving up an average of 113.3 points during their last three games. The Nuggets are averaging 111.3 points in their last three games.
Some corrections are in order, but not drastic enough to keep this game under. The Nuggets are much stronger offensively now that Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are healthy. The over has cashed in Denver's last five home games and also has cashed five of the last six times Denver has hosted Detroit.
|
01-22-16 |
Jazz v. Nets OVER 189 |
|
108-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Nets aren't playing better, but they are playing at a faster pace under interim coach Tony Brown, who replaced fired Lionel Hollins. The Nets have surpassed 100 points in three of their last five games. The Nets, though, remain bad defensively giving up 103 or more points in all but one of their last seven games. They rank third from last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Jazz have picked up their offense averaging 101 points in regulation during their last four games.
|
01-22-16 |
Clippers -124 v. Knicks |
|
116-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are in a vulnerable spot for this matchup. New York got past the 76ers, 119-113, in double overtime at home this past Monday and then escaped Utah in overtime at home two nights ago, 118-111. Now the Knicks host the Clippers. New York isn't close to being as good as the Clippers. Yet the line is around pick because the Clippers played and lost last night at the Cavaliers, 115-102. There shouldn't be a fatigue factor, though. None of the Clippers played more than 34 minutes and the team had been idle the previous two days. Chris Paul is playing at a high level giving the Clippers a huge edge at point guard. Expect a strong defensive effort, too, from the Clippers after Paul expressed his displeasure with LA's defense last night. The Clippers have a history of taking care of business versus sub .500 teams going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times against them. The Clippers have beaten the Knicks six times in a row, covering the past four. LA also is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight Eastern Conference games and 9-3 ATS following a non-cover.
|
01-21-16 |
Grizzlies -120 v. Nuggets |
|
102-101 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies are a season-best five games above .500, brimming with confidence and have point guard Mike Conley back from an Achilles injury that caused him to miss six games. Conley had 15 points and 10 assists in his return helping Memphis defeat New Orleans, 101-99, at home two nights ago. The Grizzlies rank sixth defensively giving up 98.7 points per game, which is five less points per game than Denver allows. During the last five weeks, the Grizzlies have played even tighter defense surrendering 95.2 during their past 18 games. That would rank No. 2 in the league if computed for the entire season. Denver is 0-14 when outrebounded. The Grizzlies have outrebounded their last two foes by a combined 14 boards. They are one of the most physical teams in the league with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The Nuggets rank second-to-last in 3-point defense. The Grizzlies have been hot from beyond the arc hitting 48.9 percent during their last three games. The Grizzlies also have defeated the Nuggets in five of the last six meetings, including 91-84 on Jan. 8 at home.
|
01-21-16 |
Pistons v. Pelicans -120 |
Top |
99-115 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 20 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans are trying to launch a desperate bid to gain the final Western Conference playoff spot. New Orleans is playing better lately winning three of four with the one defeat during this span occurring by two points on the road to Memphis. New Orleans has been hit hard by injuries this season, with the latest loss being Eric Gordon. However, the rest of the key Pelicans are healthy, including Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans. Holiday no longer is under a minutes restriction. The Pelicans catch the Pistons playing without rest and in a letdown spot after they upset the Rockets on the road last night. Detroit caught a break because the Rockets lost center Dwight Howard just one minute into the game. Andre Drummond may have tired arms after shooting a franchise-record 36 free throws against Houston. Anthony Davis is one of the few big men who trumps Drummond. The Pistons were 1-4 SU and ATS during their previous five road contests before surprising Houston. Detroit is 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest and has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to New Orleans.
|
01-20-16 |
Pistons v. Rockets -2.5 |
|
123-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 6 m |
Show
|
Detroit is one of those good at home, bad on the road clubs. Detroit is 14-7 at home, but 8-12 SU and ATS away. The Pistons have had particular problems at Houston losing nine in a row there going 2-6-1 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in their last six visits. The Pistons have failed to cover seven of the last nine times versus opponents with a winning home record and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. Sparked by a revitalized Dwight Howard, the Rockets are playing well winning six of their last eight. Howard is averaging 20.6 points and 14.7 rebounds during the past three weeks posting 10 double-doubles in a row. He will be highly motivated to face Andre Drummond, who has resembled Howard in his prime while enjoying a breakout superstar season. Detroit received a lot of accolades for beating the Warriors at home this past Saturday, but that was its only victory during the past four games.
|
01-20-16 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 200 |
|
109-115 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
Boston has cranked up its offense averaging 113.2 points during its last five games. However, the Celtics are surrendering an average of 110.4 points during this span.
Toronto is in a good scoring groove, too, averaging 108.6 points in its last three games. The over has cashed in nine of Toronto's last 12 games.
|
01-20-16 |
Heat v. Wizards -4 |
Top |
87-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
Washington has revenge for an embarrassing 97-75 home loss suffered to the Heat early this month. Look for the Wizards to get their revenge in a big way as this is a horrendous spot for the banged-up Heat. Miami is enduring its worst stretch going 1-5, including losing 91-79 to the Bucks at home last night. The Heat had just returned from a six-game road trip that had concluded Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Now the Heat go right back on the road. The Heat have been outscored by 37 points in their last two games. While the Wizards are healthy with Bradley Beal back, the Heat are down several big men and have a cluster injury problem at point guard with starter Goran Dragic and backup Beno Udrih out. This leaves the Heat inexperienced in the backcourt. Dwayne Wade is trying to take over some of the ball handling, but he's bothered by a sore shoulder. John Wall against Tyler Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. The Wizards have been playing better winning four of their last six. However, they are off a double-digit home loss to Portland this past Monday. So the Wizards should be rested and ready.
|
01-19-16 |
Pacers v. Suns UNDER 209 |
Top |
97-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
These two teams just met a week ago at Indiana and the total was lined at 205. The Pacers won, 116-97. That game went over and Indiana has surrendered 118 points to the Wizards and 129 to the Nuggets during its last two games. So now we have a total four points higher that it was just seven days ago. That makes sense. But it also makes sense that the Pacers - who rank in the top 10 defensively and are the sixth-stingiest 3-point defense - will play better defense especially after allowing an NBA-high 45 fourth quarter points to the Nuggets. Defense was the focus of the Pacers' Monday practice. The Suns' offense has gone downhill with their leading scorer Eric Bledsoe out. Phoenix is averaging 95.5 points in its last four games. Indiana could be without its point guard and fourth-leading scorer, George Hill, for a second straight game due to a personal matter. Hill is questionable.
|
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -3 |
Top |
132-98 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland are without question the elite of the NBA right now. The timing of this matchup, though, is well suited for the Cavaliers. The Warriors are 37-4, but playing their worst ball dropping two of their last three. The latest defeat being an eye-popping 113-95 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Pistons are an outstanding home team and were sky-high for the matchup. But Golden State has no excuses being healthy. The Warriors shot a season-low from the floor and had their fewest assists, just 18, of the season. While I certainly wouldn't expect the Warriors to be that bad again - perhaps not all season - this is another tough spot for them. The revenge-minded Cavaliers are 15-1 at home, riding a six-game winning streak at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is well rested having completed a 5-1 road trip with an impressive 91-77 victory against Houston on Friday. That followed a tough 99-95 loss to the Spurs that halted the Cavaliers' eight game win streak. The prideful Cavaliers don't want to lose to the Spurs and Warriors in the same week. They also have payback for an 89-83 Christmas Day loss to the Warriors and for losing to Golden State in the Championship Series while missing Kevin Love and losing Kyrie Irving for the series when he suffered a broken left kneecap in Game 1. Irving was just returning from his injury when the Cavaliers lost to Golden State on Christmas. Now he's healthy as are the rest of the Cavaliers. Irving led the Cavaliers against the Rockets with 23 points. LeBron James usually can be counted on in revenge spots. James is on a hot run, too, averaging 25.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists while hitting 54.8 percent of his shots from the field during the last six games.
|
01-16-16 |
Blazers v. 76ers OVER 207 |
|
89-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
Sparked by hot-shooting Damian Lillard, the Trail Blazers are averaging 109.5 points in their last four games. The 76ers rank 26th defensively and 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are giving up 112.1 points in their last six games, but their offense is better now with Ish Smith at point guard. It's helped the 76ers go over the total in five of their last six games.
|
01-16-16 |
Nets v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
86-114 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
|
Brooklyn has failed to reach 100 points in 65 percent of its games this season. The Nets have gone under the total in seven of their last nine games and in 15 of their past 22 road contests. Those figures should stand up here. The Nets are a disjointed, morale-challenged club that is going nowhere. They have one of the worst point guard situations in the league with Jarrett Jack out. Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin are trying to run the team at the point. Sloan logged 32 minutes last night in another disappointing home loss this time to Portland. The Hawks played overtime last night losing to Milwaukee. Atlanta scored just 10 points during the final 9:44 of the game, including overtime. These teams know each other well having gone six games in the playoffs last season. Already they've played twice this season with 188 points being scored in the first meeting and 178 in the second game. The under has cashed in six of the last eight games in this series. Both teams are loaded with veterans, which probably means a slow pace considering each team was in action last night.
|
01-15-16 |
Heat -2.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
98-95 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest. Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league.
|
01-15-16 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Bucks |
|
101-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have regressed a great deal from last season. They are 16-25 and headed back to the lottery. Milwaukee's defense has slipped, veteran leadership is missing and lack of rebounding has hurt. Not helping matters is Jason Kidd being away from the team on medical leave. The Hawks have regressed, too, from last season, but not nearly as much as the Bucks. The Bucks lack the consistent offense and rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's weaknesses. The Hawks have beaten the Bucks in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past six at Bradley Center. The Hawks should be fired up after suffering their second-worst defeat to the season, 107-84, two nights ago at Charlotte. The Bucks couldn't follow through on their 106-101 win against the Bulls this past Tuesday losing by that same score to the banged-up Wizards on Wednesday night.
|
01-15-16 |
Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 201.5 |
|
107-109 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
The Hornets are playing better defense surrendering an average of 92 points during their last three games. Charlotte is getting some underrated defensive play from center Cody Zeller, important when taking on the Pelicans and their star big man, Anthony Davis.
The under has cashed in five of Charlotte's last six games.
The Pelicans rank 25th in field goal percentage and could be without one of its major scorers as Tyreke Evans suffered a knee injury this past Wednesday.
|
01-14-16 |
Cavs +7 v. Spurs |
Top |
95-99 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.
Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape.
|
01-14-16 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 202.5 |
|
115-111 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Bulls have reached triple digits in 12 straight games. The 76ers aren't going to stop Chicago from getting its points no matter if Derrick Rose plays or doesn't.
The 76ers rank among the bottom five in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers' offense is better with Ish Smith at point guard.
The over has cashed in the last five meetings between the two teams.
|
01-13-16 |
Pacers +2.5 v. Celtics |
|
94-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Celtics aren't playing well enough to lay points against Indiana. Boston is 1-6 in its last seven games and has lost a season-high four games in a row. The Celtics have dropped their last three home games - to the Pistons, Nets and Lakers. All of these defeats were by three or more points. The Celtics don't have a lot of height so they need their outside shooting game working. However, the Celtics are shooting just 25.5 percent from 3-point range during their last seven games. Indiana ranks sixth in fewest points allowed at 98.2 and are sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. The Pacers are holding foes to 93.5 points on 39.2 percent field goal shooting during their last six games. Indiana would be leading the NBA in defense if its statistics accumulated this month were counted for the entire season. The Pacers are 4-2 in their last six games. Their past five defeats have all come by four points or fewer. Indiana is 2-0 versus Boston this season, including winning by 11 points during their last visit to Boston on Nov. 11. The Pacers are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Celtics and have covered 74 percent of their last 27 Eastern Conference matchups.
|
01-13-16 |
Wolves +8.5 v. Rockets |
|
104-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
The Rockets have been playing much better than earlier this season when they ranked as one of the league's biggest disappointments. However, this is a flat sport for Houston. The Rockets are playing for the third time in four days and just won an important road game, 107-91, at Memphis last night. The Rockets have a much more challenging game up next - hosting the Cavaliers on Friday. The Rockets get back point guard Ty Lawson today following his three-game suspension. That's not necessarily a plus for the Rockets, though, as Lawson has not fit in especially alongside James Harden. Minnesota has dropped 11 of its last 12. This is far more a fade on Houston, but the Timberwolves do have talent and showed they are playing hard cutting an 18-point third-quarter deficit against Oklahoma City to lose by five points last night at home. Houston is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage and has failed to cover four of five times this season laying nine or more points. Minnesota, on the other hand, has covered eight of the last nine times it has been on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record.
|
01-09-16 |
Raptors v. 76ers OVER 201 |
|
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
The 76ers are healthy and playing more up-tempo with Mike D'Antoni an assistant coach and Ish Smith settling in at point guard.
One thing that hasn't changed with the 76ers is their lack of defense. The 76ers are giving up an average of 110.1 points per game during their last 13 games. DeMar DeRozan is hot for Toronto averaging more than 25 points per game during his last 12 games.
|
01-09-16 |
Wizards +2 v. Magic |
|
105-99 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 38 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved while Washington has been disappointing up to this point. But what hasn't changed in the Wizards' huge point guard edge with John Wall and the dominance Washington has had in this series. The Wizards have defeated the Magic 11 times in a row. That includes three victories this season with the last coming 11 days ago at Verizon Center, 103-91. Wall scored 24 points and dished off 13 assists in that victory. Wall is averaging 19.1 points and 10.5 assists against the Magic. The Magic are playing without rest after beating Brooklyn, 83-77, on the road last night and aren't likely to have their point guard, Elfird Payton. He's missed the last three games with an ankle bruise. The Magic were lucky to play such a weak opponent last night as they are scoring only 85.6 points per game during their last five games while shooting 42.1 percent from the floor during this span. Washington also is playing for the second consecutive night after losing to Toronto. The Wizards have gotten healthy with the exception of being without injured shooting guard Bradley Beal, who is nearing a return. It would be an unexpected bonus if he were to play today. This is the Wizards' first road game of 2016. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road matchups, including straight-up victories against the Cavaliers, Heat and Mavericks.
|
01-08-16 |
Knicks v. Spurs OVER 195 |
|
99-100 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
The Spurs certainly are going to get their share of points. But what about the Knicks? Can they hold up their end? Well, the Knicks are averaging 105.3 points in their last three games while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. It's their hottest stretch.
The Spurs lead the NBA in field goal percentage and are No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 118.7 points in their last three games while shooting 56.5 percent from the floor. Certainly these two teams can't keep up this great shooting, but they don't have to have their "A" offenses to go above this total.
|
01-08-16 |
Mavs +1.5 v. Bucks |
|
95-96 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 18 m |
Show
|
Maybe it's because coach Jason Kidd is out recovering from hip surgery. But the Bucks have been playing zero defense lately under interim coach Joe Prunty allowing 114.4 points per game during their last five games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Milwaukee surrendered 123 points and 54.4 percent shooting to San Antonio in losing by 25 points this past Monday. Then the following night, the Bucks lost 117-106 on the road to Chicago. Now the Bucks take on a rested and confident Mavericks team that has won the past six times in this series. The last time the Bucks defeated the Mavericks in Milwaukee was on New Year's Day, 2011. Milwaukee also is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on two days rest. The Mavericks are facing a crucial part of their schedule. They got past improved Sacramento, 117-116, in double overtime at home on Tuesday. The following night Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle took a chance giving the night off to four starters - Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Zaza Pachulia and Wesley Matthews - in a road game against New Orleans. The Mavericks displayed their excellent depth by defeating the Pelicans, 100-91. Dallas can't afford a loss here in its quest to reach the playoffs in the always fierce Western Conference. After this matchup, four of Dallas' next five games are against Cleveland and then on the road versus Oklahoma City, Chicago and San Antonio.
|
01-06-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 202 |
|
78-74 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
I see the Timberwolves breaking out of their scoring slump against the Nuggets, who are allowing an average of 108.2 points during their last six games. The Nuggets have gone over the total in four of their last five games, including the past three.
The teams combined for 222 points when they last played on Dec. 15 with the Nuggets winning, 112-110.
I like the Nuggets' offense much more with Danilo Gallinari back in the lineup. He's averaging 26.5 points in two games since returning from an ankle injury. The Nuggets have averaged 10 more free throws per game when Gallinari has played.
|
01-05-16 |
Kings v. Mavs -5 |
Top |
116-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season. Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back.
|
01-04-16 |
Rockets -126 v. Jazz |
|
93-91 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
Houston has won eight of the last 10 meetings against Utah, covering four of the last five. The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode with a four-game losing streak. The last two have come against the Warriors and Spurs, the two best teams in basketball. Now they're stepping way down in class. Utah has gotten supreme efforts in winning its last two games defeating Portland and Memphis at home. The Jazz are without Rudy Gobert, Alec Burks and Derrick Favors, who has missed the last five games with back spasms. Dwight Howard should be in line for a big performance with Utah missing its top two big men. The Rockets have too much offense for the Jazz. Houston has reached triple digits in 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz ranks 27th in scoring averaging less than 97 points a game.
|
01-04-16 |
Spurs v. Bucks OVER 191 |
|
123-98 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Spurs are No. 1 in field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 108.7 points during their last four games.
The Bucks rank 24th in defensive field goal percentage. But are in the top eight in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The over has cashed in seven of the Bucks' last 10 home games.
|
01-04-16 |
Celtics -6.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-94 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups.
|
01-04-16 |
Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 204 |
|
99-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves will be fired up to play strong defense after blowing a huge lead against the Bucks in their last game and getting ripped by their coach, Sam Mitchell.
Minnesota has failed to reach triple digits in its last seven games. The Timberwolves are averaging only 89.1 points in their last six games.
The 76ers rank 25th in points scored and 28th in free throw shooting. They are in a flat spot after returning from a six-game road trip. Philadelphia is averaging just 91.5 points in its last two games.
|
01-01-16 |
Mavs v. Heat OVER 196.5 |
|
82-106 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
Dallas is averaging 113 1/2 points during its last four games. The Mavericks offense is better without over-the-hill Deron Williams slowing it down. It's not surprising that Williams has missed the last four games. J.J. Barera, Williams' point guard replacement, has sparked the offensive surge averaging 22.3 points a game during this span while shooting 63 percent from the floor.
The over has cashed in 8 of the last 10 games between these two teams.
|
12-25-15 |
Clippers -11.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
94-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points. The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center.
|
12-23-15 |
Pistons v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-107 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
Atlanta is playing well averaging 111.3 points in winning its last four games while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during this span. The Hawks catch a scheduling break as the Pistons are facing major fatigue issues coming from 18 points down to upset Miami, 93-92, on the road last night. The Pistons have a thin bench. That's one reason why they are 0-3 when they've played the second of consecutive games on the road this season.
|
12-23-15 |
Mavs v. Nets UNDER 199.5 |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
Dallas is thin at point guard down Deron Williams and Devin Harris, their two best point guards.
The Nets have only reached triple digits once in their last five games. They average 96 points on the season. Only one team scores less points per game than Brooklyn.
The under has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the Nets have played a Western Conference foe. The under also is 4-1 during the Nets' last five home contests.
|
12-23-15 |
Mavs -3 v. Nets |
|
119-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
The Mavericks are going to be missing Deron Williams and Devin Harris, but I have confidence veterans Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea can handle point guard duties. The Nets have been playing terrible defense allowing 100 or more points in six straight games. They rank second to last in offense so they can't make up for it on the offensive end. Brooklyn has lost its last four home games. The Nets need Joe Johnson to step up, but he's been ice cold shooting 28.3 percent from the floor in his last five games.
|
12-23-15 |
Kings v. Pacers -6.5 |
Top |
108-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right. Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State. Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.
|
12-18-15 |
Grizzlies +2.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
88-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 1 m |
Show
|
Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24. The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs.
|
12-18-15 |
Clippers v. Spurs OVER 194 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
The marketplace has taken this total down too low. Not enough respect is being given to the caliber of the offenses of these two teams. The Spurs average better than 101 points per game and have the second-highest field goal percentage in the league. The Clippers average better than 102 points per game and are in the top 10 in field goal percentage. The over has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams.
|
12-16-15 |
Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 199.5 |
|
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Bucks know they can't play up-tempo against the far more talented Clippers. So I expect them to slow things down especially being short-handed at point guard with Greivis Vaszuez and Jerryd Bayless out. Michael Carter-Williams is more about defense than offense. The Bucks are second-to-last in the league in scoring. The Clippers just returned home following a five-game, 10-day road trip. So they're going to have tired legs. Their concentration could be off, too, especially with their next game looming against San Antonio on Friday.
|
12-16-15 |
Bucks +11.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
90-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night. Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road.
|
12-15-15 |
Rockets +2 v. Kings |
Top |
97-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento. Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory.
|
12-14-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
108-114 |
Loss |
-102 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt.
|
12-14-15 |
Heat v. Hawks -5 |
|
100-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 46 m |
Show
|
Atlanta has had Miami's number winning the past seven meetings, including going 4-0 ATS the last four times in Atlanta. The Heat haven't covered during their last eight meetings versus the Hawks. Miami has played only seven road games so far going 2-5. The Heat have scored 83 points or less in three of their past four away contests. On the season, Miami is averaging 88.1 points away from American Airlines Arena. This is a bad spot, too, for the Heat. They are coming off a 100-97 home win against Memphis on Sunday in which they rallied from 16 points down. This will be just the second time the Heat are playing without rest. The last time was back on Nov. 6 when they lost and failed to cover on the road against the Pacers. The Hawks, on the other hand, were idle yesterday. They are motivated to perform much better than they did when they were buried, 103-78, at home by San Antonio two days ago. That was the Hawks' first game back after being on the road last Wednesday and Thursday. They are fully rested and settled in now.
|
12-12-15 |
Celtics v. Hornets -2 |
Top |
98-93 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot.
|
12-11-15 |
Heat v. Pacers UNDER 198 |
|
83-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
After giving up the highest defensive rating in the NBA during their last three-game span, the Pacers have worked hard on improving their defense during the past two days following their 131-123 home loss to unbeaten Golden State this past Tuesday. The Pacers are in a physical, take no-prisoners mood trying to end a three-game losing streak. Their opponent, Miami, is a defensive-minded team, too. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game and in defensive field goal percentage. They also rank fifth in defending against 3-pointers, a key when playing the Pacers. The Heat, however, rank 27th in scoring and 28th in possessions per game. They really struggle to score on the road. The most they've scored away from home is 92 points. Indiana is 11-1 to the under the past 12 times when playing on two days rest.
|
12-11-15 |
Cavs -3 v. Magic |
Top |
111-76 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too. But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando. The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that. Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent. The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.
|
12-10-15 |
Clippers v. Bulls UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
80-83 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 44 m |
Show
|
Clippers at Bulls Under 201 Both teams played last night in fast-paced game breaking 100 points each. The Bulls lost 105-100 to the Celtics on the road while the Clippers buried the Bucks, 109-95, on the road. Both games went over the total. Now look for a much slower tempo in this matchup since the Clippers and Bulls both played last night and each are in action for the third time in four days. The under has cashed four of the last five times the Clippers have played with zero rest.
Chicago is averaging 95.8 points in its last eight games. The Bulls have lost three in a row so this is a stop-the-pain game for them. Their defensive intensity should be up. As for their offense, they're still not sure what they're doing under rookie coach Fred Hoiberg. The Bulls are 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games at United Center. They also have gone under seven of the past eight times they've faced a Western Conference opponent.
|
12-10-15 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 197.5 |
|
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
This total is too high for these two teams. The recent scoring average for each team is inflated by both having played Houston.
If you discount their game versus the Rockets, the 76ers are averaging 86.6 points in their last eight road games. If you discount their matchup against the Rockets, the Nets are averaging 91.6 points in their last five games.
Philadelphia is the lowest scoring team in the league and second to last in field goal percentage. The Nets have the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA and rank 25th in scoring.
|
12-09-15 |
Lakers +6.5 v. Wolves |
|
122-123 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
As bad as the Lakers are, the Timberwolves can't be laying these many points. Minnesota have lost four in a row. They are 2-9 at home and 4-22-1 ATS during their last 27 games at Target Center versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Lakers have revenge for a one-point home loss to Minnesota in which they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. LA has won during its last two visits to Minnesota. Kobe Bryant actually made half of his field goal attempts in the Lakers' last game helping the Lakers cover against the Raptors. The Lakers are going to have few winnable road matchups. This is one of them.
|
12-09-15 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Pistons |
|
93-92 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies haven't yet reverted to their past consistent form. But they still are a level above the Pistons. This is a bounce back spot for Memphis after being embarrassed, 125-88, by Oklahoma City at home last night. The lone bright spot for Memphis from that game is that only Zach Randolph played more than 30 minutes. Memphis has followed up each of its last four defeats with a victory in its next game. The Pistons have matchup problems against the Grizzlies lacking the perimeter game to draw the Grizzlies' big front line out of the paint. Only two teams are shooting worse from the floor than the Pistons, who make less than 42 percent of their field goals. The Pistons also are 21st in defensive field goal percentage at 45.1 percent. Memphis is 10-0 when shooting above 42 percent from the field.
|
12-08-15 |
Rockets -4 v. Nets |
Top |
105-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well.
The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games.
|
12-07-15 |
Suns v. Bulls -6 |
Top |
103-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that.
Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender.
The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat.
|
12-06-15 |
Suns v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
93-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis. That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games.
|
12-05-15 |
Magic v. Clippers -2.5 |
Top |
101-103 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul. The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday.
|
12-05-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 191 |
|
91-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are in a flat spot after a satisfying beat down of the Nets last night at home. This marks the Knicks' first road game since Nov. 25. The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with poor-shooting, turnover-prone Michael Carter-Williams their lone healthy point guard. Greivis Vasquez is out with an ankle injury. So is Jerryd Bayless, who sprained his ankle last night against the Pistons. Tyler Ennis is out, too, with an injured shoulder suffered in practice. The Bucks are averaging just 85.8 points during their last five games. The Knicks rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage.
|
12-05-15 |
Kings v. Rockets -3 |
|
113-120 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
This line is short given how bad the Kings are and how the Rockets are turning things around under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Sacramento is 1-3 in its last four games and coming off a dreadful second half effort against Boston this past Thursday night in a game played in Mexico. The Kings also lost rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein for four-to-six weeks after he suffered a dislocated right index finger in the loss to the Celtics. Houston has covered in five of its last six meetings versus the Kings winning all six. James Harden takes full advantage of the Kings' porous defense, which ranks 29th in defensive scoring and in defensive field goal percentage. Harden is averaging 46 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in his last three games against the Kings. The Rockets have picked up their play since firing Kevin McHale winning four of their last five. Houston defeated Dallas on the road last night without Dwight Howard. He's expected to play in this matchup going against DeMarcus Cousins.
|
12-04-15 |
Cavs v. Pelicans OVER 208 |
|
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
New Orleans really struggles defensively. The Pelicans have yielded triple digits in all but two of their 19 games.
The Pelicans can score, though, especially now with a healthy Tyreke Evans back. Jrue Holiday also will be playing in this game. Both players are more offensive than defensive minded.
The Pelicans average 109 points at home. Cleveland is going to get its points. The Cavaliers are 40-18 to the over when playing on two days rest.
|
12-04-15 |
Nets +3.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
91-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once. Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season. The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest.
|
12-02-15 |
Raptors v. Hawks OVER 196 |
|
96-86 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are much more efficient on offense when playing at home shooting 47.4 percent from the floor compared to 44 percent on the road. Their 3-point shooting is better, too, at home - 37.2 percent to 33.6 percent on the road. Atlanta is averaging 110 points during its last three home games. The Hawks are healthy and should put up triple digits again at home. Toronto has a strong history of going over the total (18-7-1 over) when playing at Atlanta. The Raptors have scored 100 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.
|
12-02-15 |
76ers v. Knicks -8.5 |
Top |
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
|
This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games.
|
12-01-15 |
Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 197.5 |
Top |
91-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
There could actually be some defensive intensity in this matchup as the 76ers try to end a 28-game losing streak, the longest losing streak in major U.S. team sports history. The 76ers are hosting the Lakers, the worst team in the Western Conference with a 2-14 mark. Both teams are offensively challenged. The Lakers rank last in the NBA in field goal percentage. They are averaging just 92 points in their last five games and are 6-1 under in their last seven games versus Eastern Conference opponents. This is Kobe Bryant's final game in Philadelphia. So expect him to fire up a lot of shots. That's good for the under, too, since Bryant is making only 30.5 percent of his shots from the field this season. That figure shrinks to 23.7 percent going on his last four games. Philadelphia is last in scoring in the NBA at 90.8 points per game. Only twice in their last 10 games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier.
|
11-30-15 |
Mavs -117 v. Kings |
|
98-112 |
Loss |
-117 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
I like the Mavericks enough to put them out at this price without DeMarcus Cousins' status being known yet. Cousins has missed the Kings' last three games with a back sprain. Sacramento is 1-7 without him this season. So obviously it's a huge plus if Cousins misses another game. Even if Cousins plays, though, the Mavericks are the better team. They certainly have more savvy and veteran experience being the second-oldest team in the league. Dallas has taken advantage of the Kings' immaturity for years winning nine of the past 11 times in Sacramento, including the last three. Cousins could be a little rusty if he gets the green light. He'll be defended by Zaza Pachulia, who is having a career year so far. Rojon Rondo is having a huge comeback season. He'll be motivated to do well against his former team having had multiple conflicts with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle last season. But this cuts both ways. The Mavs certainly are familiar with Rondo. Deron Williams is having his own nice comeback season for Dallas. The Kings rank last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games versus Western Conference foes, while the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus Western Conference opponents.
|
11-30-15 |
Mavs v. Kings UNDER 214.5 |
|
98-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
It now appears DeMarcus Cousins is going to play for the Kings. He's missed the last three games with a sore back. That's good and bad for the total. Cousins is a top scorer, but also is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He's not going to be rusty defensively. But he could rusty on offense. If Cousins doesn't play that's good, too, for the under because his fill-ins are not scorers. Dallas is averaging just 90.3 points in its last three games. The Mavericks do not have a strong inside scoring game. They are just 24th in 3-point shooting, though.
|
11-30-15 |
Nuggets v. Bucks -3 |
Top |
74-92 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games. The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.
The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game.
|
11-28-15 |
Nets +10 v. Cavs |
Top |
88-90 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points. The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season.
|
11-27-15 |
Bucks v. Magic OVER 199 |
Top |
90-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Bucks are horrible this season on defense. They've given up an average of 114 points during their last five games. Milwaukee has yielded at least 103 points per game in six of its last seven games. Sacramento scored 129 points on the Bucks two nights ago - without DeMarcus Cousins. Orlando is below average in field goal shooting, but the Magic have scorers in Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, who is coming off the bench now. Scott Skiles coached the Bucks before leaving by mutual agreement in Jan. of 2013. So you know he wants this game. Jason Kidd's answer to the Bucks' porous defense is to outscore the opposition. Kidd is trying to do this by increasing tempo having point guard Michael Carter-Williams force pace.
The Bucks have done this the past two games and put up 109 points versus the Pistons and 118 against the Kings.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks -4.5 |
|
129-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Bucks have the offense to take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranked defense that is yielding nearly 109 points per game. The Bucks are coming off a 109-point game against the Pistons two nights ago, the most they've scored since the second game of the season. Milwaukee's bench scoring is up with O.J. Mayo back after missing the first 11 games of the season. The Kings aren't likely to have star center DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't play - as expected - the Kings are weakened on both ends of the court. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint against the Pistons while shooting 52 percent from the field. Milwaukee's athleticism can hurt the Kings' too. Sacramento ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings have yet to win in five games without Cousins this season. They are 2-3 ATS without him. Their closest loss without Cousins was by six points. The Kings also are facing fatigue issues. This marks their fifth consecutive road game and fifth game in eight days. They return to California after the game so their focus could be off.
|
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks OVER 207 |
Top |
129-118 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking last in opposing field-goal percentage and second-to-last in points allowed per game at 108.3. The Kings not only play bad defense, but they play up-tempo - a great combination for an over. Rojon Rondo is having a big comeback season. He leads the NBA in triple-doubles and in assists at 10.8 per game. DeMarcus Cousins isn't likely to play. This cuts both ways, though. The Kings lose his offense, but become more vulnerable inside. The Bucks have talked about pushing pace more, which makes sense giving their athletic makeup. They showed a faster tempo in their last game, a 109-88, home win against the Pistons. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint and point guard Michael Carter-Williams played well with an aggressive mentality, something that had been lacking from him previously. The Bucks also have O.J. Mayo healthy to give them a big scorer off the bench.
|
11-24-15 |
Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 |
|
97-121 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
Boston is a well-coached, overachieving bunch that can't be taken for granted. The Hawks aren't about to do that in this revenge spot. The Hawks got pushed around 11 days ago in a 106-93 road loss to Boston. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer had to miss that game due to personal reasons. He's back and has had ample time to prepare since Atlanta last played on Saturday. The Hawks go on a three-game road trip immediately following this game. Then they return home to face Oklahoma City and Toronto. So this is a game they need to focus and win. Atlanta has lost four of its last five. But the Hawks are now finally healthy with point guard Jeff Teague back. Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were all All-Stars last season. The Hawks are due to start playing better. The Celtics' backcourt lost some of their depth with Marcus Smart out. He is Boston's top perimeter defensive guard.
|
11-24-15 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies -3 |
|
96-110 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Dallas has been better than expected. Credit to Rick Carlisle and veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. However, the Mavericks have match up problems in this game. Their weakness is inside where the Grizzlies are tough even if Zach Randolph remains out. Dallas has lost four of five times when surrendering 44 or more points in the paint. The Grizzlies have beaten the Mavericks 10 of the last 14 times, including four of the past five times. The Mavericks do not have a good road history when stepping up at 5-17 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies started slow, but are beginning to come on. If not for a road loss to power San Antonio they would be riding a five-game winning streak. Memphis is the more rested team, too, having been idle since Saturday. Dallas played two days ago losing a tough 117-114 road game to Oklahoma City.
|
11-24-15 |
Pacers v. Wizards -125 |
|
123-106 |
Loss |
-125 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
Indiana is hot. So is Washington with three straight victories. I'm getting involved with the Wizards because of the low number, they are home and having underrated Bradley Beal back in the lineup. He makes a difference. Indiana is off a couple of blowout victories against the 76ers and Bucks. Now the Pacers are stepping way up in class offensively as the 76ers rank last in scoring and the Bucks are 25th. Washington ranks in the top eight in scoring and field goal percentage. The Wizards are playing more up-tempo and I envision the Pacers having problems keeping up especially in the backcourt. Point guard George Hill has missed the last three games with an upper respiratory infection. He's likely to play today, but will be rusty and at a disadvantage going against John Wall.
|
11-21-15 |
Kings v. Magic -2.5 |
Top |
97-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games. There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game.
|
11-20-15 |
76ers +10.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
88-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points. The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell.
|
11-18-15 |
Bulls v. Suns -130 |
|
103-97 |
Loss |
-130 |
13 h 1 m |
Show
|
Each team has won three in a row. But I've been more impressed with the Suns. Plus Phoenix is home and has a coaching advantage with Jeff Hornacek over Fred Hoiberg. Chicago has defeated the 76ers, Hornets and Pacers, who were missing point guard George Hill, by one point during its winning streak going 1-2 ATS. Derrick Rose isn't expected to play today after spraining his ankle against the Pacers. Chicago is 0-5 ATS following a point spread cover. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They are getting outstanding backcourt play from Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, perhaps the most underrated guard tandem in the league. The Suns' frontcourt should be bolstered with the likely return of Markieff Morris, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee. The Suns have been home for more than a week. Their past three games all have blowout victories against the Clippers, Nuggets and Lakers. While the Suns have been impressive at home, the Bulls have been less than stellar on the road going 2-2 with victories versus bottom feeders the 76ers and Nets and losses to the Pistons and Hornets.
|
11-18-15 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 |
|
89-93 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a horrible spot for the Raptors, who went all out to try to upset Golden State last night. Their key players had to log huge minutes.
Now they face the rugged and physical defensive-minded Jazz with less than a full 24 hours to get reinvigorated. Playing in high altitude doesn't help either.
The Jazz have been idle since Sunday and been one of the better teams in the NBA since the All-Star break of last season. They rank No. 3 defensively in the league.
|
11-18-15 |
Wolves v. Magic -3 |
Top |
101-104 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
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Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot. The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup.
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11-17-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Nets |
Top |
88-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 37 m |
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This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday. Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game.
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11-15-15 |
Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 48 m |
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Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point. Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home.
Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota.
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11-13-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
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98-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 37 m |
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The Rockets are a bunch of talented head cases. So far they are underachieving at 4-4. But this spot and a correction in their outside shooting makes them worth backing here. Houston was stunned by the Nuggets in its opening home loss losing by 20 points. The Rockets may have got caught peeking ahead to this huge revenge spot in their last game when they were upset by the Nets at home, 106-98, this past Wednesday. The Rockets rely on James Harden and hitting their 3-point shots. The Rockets made 34.8 percent of their 3-point shots last season. This season they are making just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc. Denver ranks 24th in 3-point defense allowing opponents to make 36.8 percent. That total goes up to 41.1 if you count the Nuggets' last six games. The Nuggets heavily rely on turnover-prone rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. The Rockets hold a strong backcourt edge with James Harden while Dwight Howard has looked better each game giving the Rockets an inside force. The Nuggets could be thin again in the backcourt if veteran backup point guard Jameer Nelson has to miss a third straight game because of a lower back injury. Before losing to the Nuggets, the Rockets had covered the past four times they played Denver.
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11-13-15 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
100-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 56 m |
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Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game.
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11-12-15 |
Clippers -145 v. Suns |
Top |
104-118 |
Loss |
-145 |
16 h 26 m |
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The Clippers are several levels higher than the Suns. But the line is short here because the Suns have been idle since Sunday and the Clippers are 1-3 in their last four games and playing without rest after losing, 118-108, on the road to Dallas last night. The Clippers' negatives can be explained. Let's start five games ago when the Clippers hosted the Suns 10 days ago. LA won, 102-96, for its eighth consecutive victory in the series. Once again the Suns didn't have an answer for Blake Griffin, who is averaging 26.4 points while shooting 58.6 percent during the Clippers' eight game winning streak versus Phoenix. Since then the Clippers have played a brutal schedule of Golden State, Houston, Memphis and aroused Dallas, which was fired up because of being spurred during the off-season by DeAndre Jordan. The Mavericks played their finest game of the season against the Clippers. Now the Clippers step down in class. Phoenix is struggling, too, losing three of its last four. The Suns haven't played the caliber of opponent the Clippers have either. The spot is favorable to Phoenix, although this early in the season having too much time off keeps you from establishing a rhythm. The Clippers' fatigue factor, though, is negated by their strong bench. The Clippers' reserves outscored the Suns bench, 41-29, in their earlier win this season. The Clippers' main bench players - Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson - are all starter quality. They are far superior to Phoenix's reserves. The Suns also have yet to find a way to stop Griffin.
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