Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks.
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.
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03-30-17 | Clippers v. Suns +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Writeup available shortly. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant.
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03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 90-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight.
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03-26-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort.
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Expect a lot of defensive intensity and flat offensive play in this game. It's not just the Jazz ranking No. 1 in defense holding foes to 96.5 points a game while also ranking second in defensive field goal percentage and that the Clippers are an above average defensive club themselves. This is a day game. So the teams could be sluggish with an unusual early start time. The Clippers just flew in from Dallas where they were upset by the Mavericks, 97-95, Thursday night. So it's almost a back-to-back spot for them due to the 12:30 local tip-off. The matchup also carries serious playoff ramifications. Both are battling to gain the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. That's huge because the fourth seed avoids the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets in the first round. Those three teams are a clear cut above the rest of the Western playoff contenders.
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03-24-17 | Nuggets v. Pacers -123 | 125-117 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pacers are one of those bad road/good home teams. They are 25-10 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and 11-25 on the road. Denver is 13-20 away from Pepsi Center and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times facing a foe with a winning home mark. Indiana has won four in a row at home, winning those games by an average of 12.3 points. Paul George is back playing at his All-Star level. He's averaging nearly 27 points this month. Not only are both teams involved in playoff runs, but the Pacers have an added revenge motive for an embarrassing 140-112 road loss to Denver on Jan. 12. Denver is a bit fat and happy after upsetting the defending champion Cavaliers by 13 points at home this past Wednesday. They are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Hawks plus 5 1/2 at Bucks It takes a lot of zigging and zagging to beat a don't-make-sense league such as the NBA. We have a perfect example today: Take Atlanta plus the points at Milwaukee. The Hawks have lost five in a row. The Bucks are returning from a 4-2 road trip, marking the first time since the 1988-'89 season Milwaukee won four games during a single road trip. Logic says lay the points with the Bucks. Logic, though, doesn't work too often in the NBA. If it did the sport would be easy to win at instead of being what many pro gamblers consider the most difficult sport to beat. Still, why get involved with the cold Hawks? We go back a little more than two weeks ago to help get the answer. Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak from March 8-12 defeating the Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies in Memphis. Then the Hawks lost to the Spurs. No shame in that. The Grizzlies got their revenge against the Hawks following that game. Again, no shame in losing to Memphis. But then in their next game - home against Portland this past Saturday - the Hawks lost by 16 points. Paul Millsap injured his knee during warmups prior to that game and the Hawks had trouble adjusting without their best player. Millsap, a four-time All-Star, leads Atlanta in scoring and is second in rebounding, assists and steals. Coupled with the loss of underrated Kent Bazemore, the Hawks proceeded to drop their next game, 105-90, to the Hornets in Charlotte. That was the Hawks' fourth straight loss with the defeats coming by an average of 12.8 points per game. These are the short windows of opportunity that come and go in the NBA. They don't stay open long as team and oddsmaker adjust. The Hawks covered as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Wizards in losing, 104-100, two days ago in their last game. Atlanta is not going to have Millsap nor Bazemore against the Bucks. But the team has made the proper adjustments. The Hawks showed progress against the Wizards and are now less depended on Millsap. The Hawks have a strong track record against the Bucks and draw Milwaukee in a vulnerable situational spot. The Bucks are a bit fat and happy following their successful six-game, 11-day road journey that concluded with a blowout victory against the Kings in Sacramento this past Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on pace to join Ocar Robertson and Magic Johnson as the only player to average more than 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists under the age of 22. If my Rotisserie fantasy basketball draft were being held now I would rank Antetokounmpo as the fourth overall player behind Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Bucks are a young team whose maturity is under question. The Bucks have their long-time arch rivals, the Bulls, on deck Sunday at home. I wouln't trust the Bucks to bring their "A" game here considering the circumstanes. They still could be getting used to the time change having been on the West Coast the past week. It should be noted the Bucks may be without backup center John Henson. He missed Milwauke's last game with a thumb injury. If Henson can't play that would be one less big man to hack Dwight Howard. The Hawks need point guard Dennis Schroder to return to his earlier solid form. He's been terrible during the Hawks' losing streak. Point guard is not one of the Bucks' strengths. Veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova also needs to step up. He's a former Buck so he should be psyched for this matchup. The Hawlks are in stop-the-pain mode. They have just a one-game lead on the Bucks and Pacers for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has a winning straight-up and spread record on the road. They have defeated the Buck in seven of the past nine meetings, including all three this season winning by an average of eight points. The Hawks have covered in seven of their last eight visits to Milwaukee. |
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03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
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03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
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03-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 205 | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
New Orleans went 2-6 during its first eight games with DeMarcus Cousins. But now Cousins and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are far more in sync. The result has been four wins in their last five games for the Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing at a faster pace now, too. That's helped them average 117.6 points during their last five games of which four have gone over. The Grizzlies are getting career seasons from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They are firing more 3-points than ever before. Memphis has reached triple digits in eight of its last 11 games. New Orleans is a below average defensive team. So I see this total as being set too low. |
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03-20-17 | Warriors -113 v. Thunder | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City isn't easy. But I see the Warriors doing it making the point they don't need Kevin Durant to be able to beat Oklahoma City. Golden State is 3-0 versus the Thunder this season, including breezing past the Thunder, 130-114, at Oklahoma City last month. Going back to last season, the Warriors have covered in each of the last six meetings versus the Thunder. The Warriors have gotten back their mojo since losing Durant to injury winning three in a row. Golden State is at the elite level. It's not asking too much for the Warriors to win this game straight-up.
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03-18-17 | Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler. |
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03-17-17 | Magic +2.5 v. Suns | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Magic should be up for this game after their no-show last night against the Warriors. Orlando coach Frank Vogel reamed his team out for that dreadful performance. Orlando has covered eight of the last 10 times in Phoenix. The Suns are going with youth with the latest casualty being their best player, Eric Bledsoe. The Suns have decided to sit him for the rest of the season so he can rest his sore knee.
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03-17-17 | Raptors +4 v. Pistons | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Not only does Toronto have revenge for a 102-101 road loss last month to the Pistons after blowing a 16-point leading entering the fourth quarter, but they played horrible last night in getting blown out by the Thunder, 123-102, at home. That loss was so bad Raptors coach Dwane Casey apologized to the Toronto fans ripping his team's lack of effort. The good news from that defeat is none of the Raptors played big minutes, DeMarre Carroll return from an ankle injury and the Raptors should be primed for a monster effort today. The Pistons haven't been playing well and don't deserve to be this big of a favorite against the veteran Raptors, who have won six more games than Detroit.
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03-16-17 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 221.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
It's easy to think this total is too low judging by this past Sunday when the two teams met in Brooklyn and the Nets won, 120-112. But a look inside that game reveals the Nets made 19 of 38 3-point shots. That's 50 percent from long range. The Nets hoist a lot of shots from beyond the arc with their helter-skelter offense, but they rarely connect ranking 24th in 3-point percentage at 34.6 percent. So I see far fewer points being scored in this quick rematch at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks aren't going to the playoffs. But their intensity should be up here after losing to their arch rival. The Knicks just held Indiana to 81 points two days ago. That was the Pacers' lowest point total of the season. So the Knicks are capable of strong defense. The Pacers average just one point fewer per game than the Nets, who rank 13th in scoring at 105.7. Brooklyn is the worst defensive team in the league. However, the Knicks are likely to be without their second-leading scorer, Kristaps Porzingis. He suffered a thigh injury against the Pacers. The Knicks probably don't want to rush their future franchise player back into the lineup in a lost season. The Nets have an injury, too, that could hurt their offense. Shooting guard Sean Kilpatrick, the Nets' third-leading scorer, is questionable due to a sore hamstring. Both teams played this past Tuesday. It's interesting to note that the under has cashed the past eight times the Knicks have played on one day's rest and the under is 17-7-2 the last 26 times the Nets have played with one day's rest.
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03-15-17 | Blazers +11 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Off an embarrassing loss and with every game crucial in their bid to make the playoffs, I believe the Trail Blazers give the Spurs a close game here. San Anotnio is playing well. But the Spurs continually are overpriced. They are 1-6 ATS following a victory. Portland trails Denver by 2 1/2 games for the last playoff spot in the West. The Trail Blazers were held to a season-low 77 points in a 23-point road loss to New Orleans last night. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS the past four times when playing without rest. They are still 5-2 in their last seven games despite that humilitating defeat. I see the Trail Blazers bouncing back to play a strong game. Gregg Popovich doesn't care about winning by margins. He just wants to win and move on. The Spurs also have a tendency to play to the level of competion. During their last seven victories they've beaten the Pacers by one as 10-point favorites, the Pelicans by three in overtime as 6 1/2-point chalk, the Timberwolves by seven in overtime as 7 1/2-point favorites, the Rockets by 12, the Kings by 10 as 11 1/2-point favorites after falling behind by 28 points, the Warriors by 22 and the Hawks by eight as seven-point favorites despite committing 21 turnovers. All of these games were at home except the Pelicans matchup. So you get the pattern of the Spurs playing to the level of competition. Minus the Rockets and Warriors - the two opponents the Spurs got excited about - San Antonio went 1-4 ATS with the lone cover coming by one point against Atlanta. |
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03-14-17 | Pacers -3 v. Knicks | 81-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rarely are the Pacers a road bargain. But this is the exception. Indiana is in the playoff hunt and Paul George is back playing at his superstar level. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on New York. If it weren't for playing Orlando - which has the fourth-worst record in the NBA - the Knicks would be winless since Feb. 27. The Knicks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 games. The playoffs are a foregone conclusion for the Knicks and morale is suffering. Team president Phil Jackson continues to try to shove his triangle offense down the players' throats leading to confusion and young star Kristpas Porzingis saying how difficult it is to play under these conditions.
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03-14-17 | Thunder -6 v. Nets | 122-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
This is likely the only time I can write this all season but the Nets actually are fat and happy. They just beat their long-time arch rivals the Knicks, 120-112, at home this past Sunday. Brooklyn hasn't won two games in a row all season. The Nets had not won at home since Dec. 26 before defeating the Knicks. They are 3-12 during their past 15 home contests. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. But the Thunder are three tiers above the Nets and won't be overlooking them. Oklahoma City needs victories to overtake the Jazz and Clippers to gain the fourth-seed in the playoffs. The Thunder should have their full focus having been idle since Saturday and not playing again until Thursday. Russell Westbrook is having a record season. He should put up monster numbers against the Nets' last-ranked defense. The Thunder also are getting outstanding play from shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who is averaging 19.3 points while connecting on 55.3 percent of his shots from the floor since returning from a back inju
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03-13-17 | Magic v. Kings UNDER 207 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This total is too high considering how inept these offenses are. Orlando ranks second-to-last in scoring averaging less than 100 points a game. The Magic rank among the bottom four teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. The Magic beat Sacramento, 102-94, when the teams previously met back in November. The Kings had DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay back then while Orlando had Serge Ibaka. Those three players all had good scoring games in that first meeting. None of them will be playing here. Orlando is trying to rely on unreliable Terrence Ross. He's shooting 38.3 percent from the floor in nine games since joining the Magic from the Raptors in a trade involving Ibaka. Ross is a decent defender, though, so he's a plus for the under. Ross is going to see big minutes because the Magic are committed to finding out if he can be a legitimate starter for next season. Sacramento virtually has no weapons minus Cousins and Gay. The Kings have lost eight of nine since giving Cousins away to the Pelicans. Sacramento is lost offensively. Darren Collison and Willie Cauley-Stein have failed to step up as hoped. The under has cashed in nine of Sacramento's last 12 games. In their last eight games, the Kings have scored 85 points against the Hornets. Charlotte allows 104.3 points per game. Sacramento put up 88 points on the Timberwolves, who give up an average of 104.8 points. Sacramento could only manage 100 points versus the Nets, who have the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.1 points. The Kings played the Nuggets twice during this span. Denver yields 110.9 points a game. Yet the Kings could manage just 92 and 96 points against the Nuggets. I do see the Kings playing hard here trying to stop an eight-game losing streak. But that intensity will be on the defensive end. The Magic have a rare victory opportunity, too, but I see that translating more into a defensive battle. |
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03-13-17 | Bulls +7.5 v. Hornets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm a go at 7 1/2 for the Bulls. Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade have too much pride not to show up following the Bulls' awful 100-80 loss to the Celtics on Sunday. At least that was an early start time so there will be less fatigue on Chicago. The Bulls are in desperation mode having lost a season-high fifth consecutive game and hanging on to a playoff spot just barely ahead of the Hornets. It's not like Charlotte has been playing well going 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games and 3-10-1 ATS versus foes with a losing straight-up record. This also marks the Hornets' fourth game in six days and they may not have Nicolas Batum, who is questionable due to a migraine headache.
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03-12-17 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 231 | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers aren't going to look to run with the Suns after last night's overtime game against the Wizards. It's also Portland's third game in four days. The Suns are a terrible defensive team, but they have held four of their last eight opponents to 106 points or less, including limiting the Mavericks to 98 points during their last game. This has been an under series, too, recently with six of the past eight going below the total.
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03-12-17 | Knicks -112 v. Nets | 112-120 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Even though this is a rivalry game, the Nets may not have their full focus. That's because this is the Nets' first home game since All-Star break ended. Brooklyn has been on the road for its past eight games. The Nets have been terrible when they've been at home going 0-16 SU, 3-13 ATS. The Knicks are just 3-5 since the All-Star break and off a bad 112-92 road loss to the Pistons on Saturday. But the Knicks still hold playoff hopes and are superior to the Nets with the two best players on the court in Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks are 2-0 this season versus the Nets winning by five points at Brooklyn and by 15 at home. The Knicks have covered six of the last eight in the series.
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03-11-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -3 | 125-124 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Both Washington and Portland are playing well. But the Wizards are in a vulnerable spot here. The Wizards went to 3-0 on their current road trip after rallying from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Kings in overtime last night. Portland has won four in a row. This is a crucial game for the Trail Blazers, who go on the road for five games following this matchup. The Trail Blazers have one of the few starting backcourts that can match the Wizards' star power and their front line has been upgraded with the addition of Jusuf Nurkic, who's playing the best ball of his career. The Trail Blazers have dominated the Wizards in Portland winning nine of the past 11 times there while going 8-3 ATS. Portland also has revenge for a 120-101 road loss to the Wizards on Jan. 16 when it had to play an usual early start day game due to Martin Luther King Day. That probably contributed to a very flat effort.
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03-10-17 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 207.5 | Top | 85-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams prefer an up-tempo pace and it's definitely not too much to ask each to reach at least 104 points. The Pacers average 105 points. The Bucks surrender just under 105 points. Milwaukee is averaging 107.2 points during its last four games. On the season, the Bucks average 105.2 points. The Pacers have a below average defense. There were 216 points scored when the teams met in Indiana last month and there were 232 points put up when the Bucks hosted the Pacers early in the season. The Pacers are off one of their best offensive games of the season, a 115-98 victory against the Pistons. Indiana had 27 assists in that game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Paul George is shooting 61 percent from the field during his last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up great offensive numbers and he's getting help from a now-healthy-back-in-sync Kris Middleton, who is shooting above 58 percent from the floor in his last five games.
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03-09-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 114-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
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03-08-17 | Celtics +9 v. Warriors | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Golden State isn't the same powerhouse without Kevin Durant. The Warriors still can win, but they're having trouble covering margins going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. This isn't an ideal spot for Golden State either. The Warriors just returned from a five-game road trip that ended Monday night. This is their first home game since Feb. 25 and then they go right back on the road for two games, including a big Saturday night game at San Antonio. Boston usually steps up in situations like this going 13-6-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning home record. The Celtics are a frustrated lot right now losing on a buzzer-beater to the Suns on Sunday and then letting a 13-point second-half lead slip against the Clippers on Monday. The Celtics played both of those games without Al Horford, who is expected back from an elbow injury for this game. Boston already has underrated guard Avery Bradley back from injury.
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03-08-17 | Kings +15 v. Spurs | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
The record shows the Spurs have won eight in a row. But San Antonio has just been getting by and has much bigger games on deck than this one. In their last four games, the Spurs have defeated the Pacers by one point at home, defeated the Timberwolves at home in overtime, edged the Pelicans in overtime on the road and slipped past the Rockets by two at home. The Spurs covered none of these games. The Kings are in stop-the-pain mode losers of five in a row. Sacramento is capable of providing a scare. The Kings no longer have DeMarcus Cousins, their best player. But the trade-off is extra line value. Just two games ago, the Kings lost by only one point in overtime to the Jazz. The Kings have covered in five of their last six visits to San Antonio. The Spurs just got done holding off the Rockets in a marquee matchup two days ago. They are at the Thunder on Thursday. Oklahoma City is extremely tough at home. Following that matchup, the Spurs return home to host Golden State on Saturday in what shapes up as the biggest game of the season. So this is a prime letdown and look ahead spot for San Antonio. It wouldn't be surprising if Gregg Popovich rested some of his starters, or at least drastically reduced their minutes in this game. Note, too, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've hosted a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Note that word just has come out that Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge will be rested and won't play. The line has come down because of that information. I still like the Kings at plus 11 1/2 and higher. |
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -6.5 | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
It's difficult to take Oklahoma City as a serious contender in the Western Conference because of its 12-20 road mark. But the Thunder are near elite status when playing at home going 23-8 at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder return home in stop-the-pain mode after going 0-3 SU and ATS in their three-game road trip that ended Sunday. The Thunder began that trip with a 114-109 loss to Portland this past Thursday. So add short revenge motivation to the list of incentives for Oklahoma City. Portland is similar to Oklahoma City in being terrible on the road losing 22 of 32. Translating into point spreads, the Trail Blazers are 8-20 ATS during their past 28 away contests. Oklahoma City is 21-8-1 ATS during its past 30 home games. The Thunder have covered 16 of the last 22 times versus opponents with a losing record. It's a plus for the Thunder that they should have back shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who didn't go on their three-game road trip because of back spasms. He practiced Monday. Portland was supposed to play last night, but its game at Minnesota was postponed due to condensation on the floor. So the Trail Blazers flew to Minnesota, sat around and then flew to Oklahoma City. They might be fresher physically by not playing, but not necessarily mentally with the rare postponement of a game after the trip already was made.
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Thunder coach Billy Donovan is really stressing defense in this game, the Thunder's first game back from an 0-3 road trip. Oklahoma City lost all three games by playing poor defense. Look for the Thunder to step up defensively now that they're back at home where they've held their past three opponents to an average of 103 points. Oklahoma City upgraded its backcourt defense by recently signing veteran Norris Cole. He could see more minutes than usual because of Portland's high-scoring backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Oklahoma City hosted Portland on Feb. 5 and won, 105-99. The teams last played against each other this past Thursday in Portland. The Trail Blazers won, 114-109. That total opened a tick lower at 221. Portland shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in that game and the teams combined to shoot 68 free throws making 81.3 percent from the line. Now the total opened higher and it's doubtful the teams will shoot that many free throws again. There were 49 free throws attempted during the Feb. 5 game. That 81.3 percent free throw percentage is high, too. Portland shoots 77.9 percent from the free throw line on the season while the Thunder are a bottom-six free throw shooting club at 74.8 percent. |
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03-06-17 | Pacers v. Hornets -3.5 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Charlotte has been playing better since coming out of the All-Star break. The Hornets have played their first six games on the road following the All-Star Game. They went 3-3, but could have gone 5-1 losing two of the games in overtime. Now the Hornets are home for the first time in three weeks, out of a playoff spot by three games. The Hornets trail the sixth-place Pacers by five games making this matchup crucial for them. Charlotte isn't going to lack for motivation and the Hornets catch the Pacers without rest and in a letdown spot. Indiana came from six down with 1:43 left to nip Atlanta, 97-96, on Sunday. The Pacers pulled the road victory out on a 3-pointer by Glenn Robinson III with 0.6 seconds left. This marks the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, too. Paul George is the best player on the court, but the Hornets have the next two best players in Kemba Walker and Nicholas Batum. The Hornets also have a defensive stopper to slow down George in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Monday Free Play Rockets plus 4 at Spurs Kevin Durant's injury has opened up the gate for San Antonio - and Houston. The Rockets are in the argument now for best team in the NBA. Houston has won eight of its last 10 games. James Harden has a league-best 49 double-doubles. The Rockets have more firepower on their bench adding Lou Williams to go with Eric Gordon. Those are the two leading scorers in the league among reserves. Unsung big man Clint Capela is healthy again and playing well. Houston is 2-0 this month crushing a pair of Western Conference contenders - the Clippers with Chris Paul on the road, 122-103, and Grizzlies at home, 123-108, two days ago. San Antonio has won seven in a row. However, the Spurs' current form doesn't match the Rockets. The Spurs' last three games were a one-point home win against the Pacers, an overtime road victory against the Pelicans and an overtime triumph versus the Timberwolves. San Antonio failed to cover any of those games. Yes, you can say the Rockets are stepping up going from playing good teams to an elite one. But the Spurs are stepping up even more in class. The Rockets are at least two levels higher than the Pacers, Pelicans and Timberwolves. The Rockets have covered 21 of their last 31 road games. They are the fresher team coming off two blowout victories. Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 115.3 points, nine points more game than what the Spurs average. San Antonio is 2-1 versus Houston this season. The Spurs' victories have been by an average of four points with the last occurring on Dec. 20. Houston has improved since then. |
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03-06-17 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 213 | 112-98 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
The over has cashed the past four times these teams have met. Look for that trend to continue. |
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03-05-17 | Jazz v. Kings +9.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
This isn't the best of spots for the Jazz. They beat the Nets at home by 15 points this past Friday and host the Pelicans on Monday. It's easy for them to look past the rebuilding Kings. Sacramento should prove dangerous here, though. The Kings have been idle for three days. That not only has given them some much needed rest time, but also a chance to get more in sync following the trade of DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento has covered the past seven times following having three days rest. The Kings were embarrassed at home in their last game, a 109-100 loss to the Nets this past Wednesday. Shooting guard Aarron Affalo returned in that game after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. Utah could be short-handed in the backcourt if Rodney Hood has to miss a third consecutive game. The Jazz have failed to cover in 17 of their last 21 Western Conference games and are overpriced here.
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03-04-17 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 205 | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau is finally getting his Timberwolves to play tough defense. Minnesota has held four of its last five foes under 100 points and three of them under 90 points. The only exception was a shootout against the high-scoring Rockets. I don't see a shootout here at all. The Spurs are off a grueling overtime road win against the Pelicans last night. Gregg Popovich isn't going to want his team running against the young legs of the Timberwolves. So look for a slow-paced, deliberate type attack from San Antonio. The Spurs are playing tough defense themselves holding seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 points.
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03-03-17 | Thunder -4 v. Suns | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Look for order to be restored following last night when the Suns upset the Hornets and the Thunder lost to the Trail Blazers. Oklahoma City isn't nearly as good on the road, but the Thunder are still several tiers above the Suns when playing away. Phoenix is tied with the Lakers for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Suns are going with youth at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Thunder got stronger at the trade deadline picking up Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott to go with the return from injury of Enes Kanther, who is averaging 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in his last three games. I see the fired-up and more experienced Thunder dominating the boards while Russell Westbrook has another big game against the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Oklahoma City has dominated this series winning 19 of the last 22, including the past six.
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03-02-17 | Hornets -3 v. Suns | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.
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03-01-17 | Pacers v. Spurs OVER 207.5 | 99-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
The two teams just met on Feb. 13 and 216 points were scored with San Antonio winning, 110-106. The Spurs played that game without rest and in action for the fourth time in six days. Now they're home and haven't played since Sunday. The Spurs are averaging 105.2 points in their last four games. The Pacers have a bottom 10 defense. |
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03-01-17 | Nuggets v. Bucks -2.5 | 110-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot in their respective conferences. The setting is ripe for Milwaukee to get this home victory, while covering this small spread. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Bulls on the road in grand fashion last night, 125-107. Following this road matchup, the Nuggets get to play seven of their next eight games at Pepsi Center their home court. Denver has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. The Nuggets also are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when playing in the second of back-to-back games. The Nuggets will be minus injured power forward Kenneth Faried. That's a key missing player because the Bucks' strength is frontcourt scoring and the greatness of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who should be pumped coming off a rare bad game. The Bucks also will have shooting guard Khris Middleton back in the lineup after he missed their last game with a hamstring injury. The Bucks are in revenge mode for a road loss to the Nuggets last month. They have defeated the Nuggets by an average of 13 points the past two times they've hosted them.
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03-01-17 | Pistons v. Pelicans -133 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Pelicans have yet to win in three games since acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, who is suspended for this game. I see the Pelicans stepping up without Cousins to post this home victory behind Anthony Davis and point guard Jrue Holiday, who was playing much better before Cousins came on board. Not only do I see the Pelicans stepping up at home while finding a better offensive rhythm, but also factoring that the Pistons are caught in a flat spot. Detroit is 2-7 in its last nine road games and has covered only once in its last five visits to New Orleans. The Pistons also are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. Detroit is off a home overtime victory against Portland last night. The Pistons had lost eight in a row to New Orleans before beating the Pelicans,118-98, at the start of February. That gives the Pelicans revenge motivation, too, along with trying to earn a playoff spot. Free Wednesday Play Raptors minus 4 hosting Wizards Great win for the Wizards last night at home against the Warriors. Unfortunately for Washington it doesn't get any time to savor beating the best team in basketball. That's because the Wizards take to the road to meet the hot again Raptors. Toronto has won four in a row and is highly motivated to hold home-court in this important home-and-away matchup, which resumes again on Friday with the two teams playing at Verizon Center, home of the Wizards. The Raptors are strong at home as evidenced by their 21-10 record at Air Canada Centre. Washington is 10-15 on the road. The Wizards are 3-7 when playing without rest. This also is their third game in four days. Guards John Wall and Bradley Beal each logged more than 39 minutes last night. Otto Porter, the Wizards' third-best player behind the two guards, played nearly 38 minutes. The Wizards needed those big minutes from their key players in their physical, hard-fought, leave-it-all-on-the-court 112-108 win against the Warriors. When the Wizards nearly upset the Cavaliers at home before losing in overtime on Feb. 6, they nearly were upset by the Nets in their following game. The Nets have the worst record in the NBA by far, but the Wizards just nipped them 114-110 in overtime as 10-point road favorites. The Wizards clearly were coming down from their huge effort against Cleveland, the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have adjusted to life without Kyle Lowry. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire averaging 37.7 points and shooting 53.6 percent in the three games following All-Star break. Toronto is better defensively and stronger in the frontcourt since acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline and having power forward Patrick Patterson return from injury. Toronto has dominated the Wizards winning the past eight meetings. Certainly the Wizards are much improved. They are deserving of respect and major props. However, this is a terrible spot for them and Toronto also is much improved. This isn't the same Raptors team that was so bad before the break.
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02-28-17 | Jazz v. Thunder | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Yes, that was an impressive road victory the Jazz had on Sunday beating the Wizards, 102-92. The Jazz turned in their "A" game. They also played an Eastern Conference opponent not familiar with them. It's hard to envision the Jazz playing a second straight "A" road game this one against one of the better teams in the Western Conference. Utah has failed to cover in 14 of its last 16 games versus Western Conference opponents. Oklahoma City is mediocre on the road, but very strong at Chesapeake Arena. The Thunder are 22-8 at home this season going 20-8-1 ATS during their past 29 home contests. The Jazz haven't won at Oklahoma City since 2010 losing 10 in a row there. Russell Westbrook is going for his 30th triple-double of the season and the Thunder beefed up their frontcourt depth landing Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott in a trade with the Bulls and getting Enes Kanter healthy again. So they match up well to the physical Jazz. It's an added plus if shooting guard Victor Oladipo is able to play after practicing on Monday. He's missed the last two games. It's not too much to ask the Thunder to simply just win this game.
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02-28-17 | Blazers +5 v. Pistons | 113-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
I don't consider the Pistons better than the Trail Blazers. Portland ranks ninth in scoring at 107.3 points a game. That's six points more per game than the Pistons, who rank 26th in scoring and 27th in free throw shooting. Portland ranks 13th in free throw percentage. The Trail Blazers also compete in the stronger Western Conference. This does mark the Trail Blazers' third consecutive road game following the All-Star break, but is just their second game in five days. It's also the final game of their road trip. Portland should be fueled not only by chasing a playoff spot, but revenge for a 125-124 double overtime home loss to the Pistons last month. The Trail Blazers were laying 3 1/2 points in that matchup. Damian Lillard has been on a monster tear since the break averaging 30.5 points while shooting 51 percent from the floor during this span. He's playing far better than Detroit's two best players, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson.
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02-27-17 | Wolves v. Kings UNDER 212 | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau continues to preach defense to his young Timberwolves. Minnesota drops way down in class today after losing 142-130 on the road to the Rockets this past Saturday night. The Rockets are the second-highest team in the league. However, in their two previous games before the Rockets matchup, the Timberwolves held the Nuggets - the fourth-highest scoring team in the league at 110 points - to 99 points and the Mavericks to 84 points. Dallas was averaging 102.8 points in its prior five games before falling to the Timberwolves. Minnesota should have an easier defensive task with the Kings no longer having DeMarcus Cousins and with Rudy Gay injured. Those were the Kings' only two consistent respectable scoring threats. The Kings are in major adjustment mode after dismantling their team at the trade deadline with Cousins going to New Orleans. The Kings could only manage just 85 points at home in their last game this past Saturday against Charlotte. The Kings have gone under in 10 of their last 11 Western Conference games. They aren't going to get into any kind of track meet with the Timberwolves. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have been hot for Minnesota, but the team is without its third-best scorer, injured Zach LaVine. So more of the scoring load has fallen on Wiggins and Towns.
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02-26-17 | Celtics -120 v. Pistons | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Counting a controversial loss to the Bulls on the final day before All-Star break, the Celtics have lost two in a row. Boston blew a 17-point lead in a road loss to the Raptors this past Friday. I see this as a stop-the-pain game for Boston. The Celtics are at least one level higher than Detroit. The Pistons don't have a defensive stopper to corral Isaiah Thomas. Detroit's two best players, Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, are enduring a terrible month. Jackson's scoring is down 10 points per game in February. Detroit opened post All-Star break with a 114-108 overtime win against the Hornets. The Pistons, however, are 5-12 ATS following a win. It's an added bonus if Avery Bradley is ready to play for the Celtics here.
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02-25-17 | Nets +22.5 v. Warriors | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
Yes, this game definitely has a Harlem Globetrotters-Washington Generals mismatch quality to it. The Warriors likely can name their score. But there is no reason for them to do that. Beating any NBA team by more than 20 points is difficult even when it's the best versus the worst, which is the case here. Only once in their last 17 games have the Nets lost by more than 20 points. Golden State beat the Nets by 16 points in the first meeting between the two teams this season on Dec. 22. The Nets actually led by 16 points during that game. Brooklyn now has Jeremy Lin back. He played last night for the first time after missing the previous 26 games with a hamstring injury. Lin is Brooklyn's best guard. He'll by highly motivated since he comes from the Bay Area. The Nets should play hard hoping not to embarrass their teammate, who still has a chance to become the face of the franchise. The Warriors are fully healthy. In this case, that's a good thing for the Nets because Steve Kerr can frequently substitute. Kerr has the Warriors in excellent shape to finish with the best record. His trick is keeping his stars fresh. This is a perfect spot for Kerr to limit the minutes of his superstars - playing an easy opponent and with a five-game road trip looming for the Warriors beginning on Monday. Golden State doesn't have a good track record either in these types of mismatches going 4-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents.
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02-25-17 | Bulls v. Cavs -11 | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
I'll lay double-digits with the Cavaliers in rare double-revenge mode and catching the Bulls off a 128-121 overtime home win against the Suns last night in which Jimmy Butler logged more than 43 minutes of court time. The Bulls are 2-0 versus the Cavaliers this season, including handing them one of their five losses at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers came out of break in impressive fashion rolling past the Knicks, 119-104, on Thursday with LeBron James getting a triple-double. Streak shooter Kyle Korver is hot right now for Cleveland hitting 12 of 18 3-pointers in his last two games. The Bulls got worse at the trade deadline dealing Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott. The Cavaliers are more than capable of blowing out just about any team at home when properly motivated. They should have high incentive for this game.
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02-25-17 | Hawks -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Both Atlanta and Orlando opened post All-Star break with losses. The difference is the Hawks are far superior to Orlando and have their key cog back in the lineup. The Hawks were blasted by the Heat, 108-90, at home Friday night. The Heat were red-hot hitting 17 of 37 3-pointers while Atlanta made just 38 percent of its shots from the field. The Hawks were minus their floor general, point guard Dennis Schroder. Schroder, who is averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 assists, will play today. He was suspended just for the Magic game for failing to report back to the team on time after the All-Star break. The Magic played on Thursday losing at home to the Trail Blazers, 112-103. The Magic are 5-18 in their last 23 games, a demoralized bottom-feeder playing out the string while missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Orlando is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven home games. Long-term, the Magic are 6-19-1 ATS during their past 26 home contests. The Hawks helped themselves at break picking up Ersan Ilyasova, a heady veteran who can rebound and hit 3-pointers. The Hawks are 12-3 ATS when playing without rest. They should play much better today with Schroder back and with a chip on his shoulder and Ilyasova having played 16 minutes in his Hawks debut last night. The Magic have gotten even worse since All-Star break after trading Serge Ibaka. The Magic have had trouble containing former teammate Dwight Howard, who is shooting 76 percent against Orlando this season. The Hawks have beaten the Magic in their last two meetings winning by an average of 23 points.
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02-24-17 | Nets v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 109-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
This handicap works both ways. The Nets are the worst team in the NBA losers of 25 of their last 26, including their last 14. The Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the postseason began now. But Denver is in a precarious spot with the Kings, Trail Blazers and Pelicans all close behind. Denver suffered an embarrassing 116-100 road loss to the Kings last night. But playing last night is a huge plus for the Nuggets because they got their post All-Star break rust off. Three of their key players also returned to the lineup - Danilo Gallinari (groin), Kenneth Faried (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (illness) - after being out. Gallinari and Chandler played decently. The Nets now are the ones that are going to be rusty. A horrendous road team anyways with a 2-23 away mark, the Nets got even worse during All-Star break trading away their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic in order to play for the future. The youthful, immature and sure-to-be rusty Nets could have trouble focusing after being idle since Feb. 15. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have revenge motivation for a five-point road loss to the Nets. The Nuggets have a good coach, Michael Malone. He'll be stressing that the Nuggets can't afford to lose this home game to such a bad team. So Denver's urgency should be extremely high. Certainly the Nuggets have the firepower to blow out the Nets ranking fourth in scoring at 110.5 points a game. Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.2 points per game. Denver has covered in eight of its last 10 home games. The Nuggets also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times after losing by more than 10 points.
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02-23-17 | Nuggets v. Kings +7.5 | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
The Kings have received lots of negative feedback for dealing DeMarcus Cousins. It's obvious the Kings are playing for the future despite trailing the Nuggets by just 1 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, the Kings should be especially fired-up for this matchup - their first game minus Cousins. The remaining Kings have pride and want to prove themselves. The Kings are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They've defeated Denver four consecutive times. The Nuggets have a lot of youth. They're not accustomed to be favored to take care of business on the road laying these many points. Focus could be an issue for the Nuggets here, while the Kings have something to prove. Sacramento figures to be the more motivated team. Denver also has a number of injured players due back who could be rusty, including streak shooter Danilo Gallnari and Kenneth Faried.
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02-23-17 | Rockets -3 v. Pelicans | 129-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Houston has defeated New Orleans six of the past seven times, including burying the Pelicans, 122-100, when the teams last met in mid-December at Houston. A lot is different now. This will be DeMarcus Cousins' debut with New Orleans. He'll team up with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans an imposing front line. However, it's going to take time for Cousins, Davis and the rest of the Pelicans to adjust. It remains to be seen if Alvin Gentry can make this a good fit. I have my doubts since I don't consider Gentry a good coach. There's going to be a lot of fanfare for this game being Cousins' debut with New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't used to these type of distractions and lack the poise and experience to handle them. The Rockets certainly won't be taking the Pelicans lightly now. Houston made an NBA-record 24 3-points in the earlier victory against New Orleans. The Rockets rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 114.4 points and they do it by firing 3-pointers all the time. They should have success shooting their 3's against the Pelicans' Twin Towers new look. The Rockets are a bad matchup for the Pelicans. Houston's offense should be even better after acquiring guard Louis Williams from the Lakers. Williams is having an excellent season and will fit right in with the Rockets. The Rockets have covered 19 of their last 27 Western Conference games. The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when playing on three or more days rest.
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02-23-17 | Blazers -2.5 v. Magic | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Portland is the superior team and should be rejuvenated coming out of the break. The Trail Blazers trailed the Nuggets by two games for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Orlando is a bottom-feeder from the inferior Eastern Conference. The demoralized Magic have lost 17 of their last 22 games and will be missing the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. The Magic rank 29th in scoring and Frank Vogel has not upgraded their defense. The Trail Blazers hold a monster backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Portland upgraded its frontcourt trading for Jusuf Nurkic while the the Magic got worse by dealing away big man Serge Ibaka.
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02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 212 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The figure is 29 out of the last 30. That's how many times Boston has reached triple digits during its last 30 games. The Celtics have scored a minimum of 107 points in 13 of their last 14 games and are averaging 114.7 points during their past four games. The over is 9-2-1 in Boston's last 12 road games. So I see the Celtics during their part to get this total to go over. But how about the Bulls? Well, their defense had been atrocious up until their last game, a 105-94 home win versus Toronto two days ago. The Bulls had surrendered 100 or more points in nine consecutive games until beating the Raptors, allowing their previous four opponents before Toronto to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. The key to making this over work is Chicago's offense, which ranks 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting. The over buy sign is there on the Bulls, though, following that Raptors victory. The Bulls played at a faster than usual pace for them resulting in 20 fast-break points. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg was quite pleased with the up-tempo style particularly how effective it was for bench players Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine. So expect the Bulls to play quick again especially trying to take advantage of Boston having to play without rest. This is the last game before the All-Star break, too, so both teams should be holding nothing back. Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago and is slated to play without any minutes restrictions. Dwayne Wade has been ruled out, but Nikola Mirotic is expected to play after missing the last two games. |
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02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed.
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02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers -127 | 97-96 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Lakers last were home on Jan. 31. They won't play at home again until 12 days from now. So this game is a big deal to LA. The Lakers have won their last two home games beating the Pacers by 13 points and Nuggets by four. LA actually has covered seven of its last eight. This includes road victories by 14 against the Knicks and by eight against the Bucks during the past eight days. The Kings are down Rudy Gay and may also be without backup point guard Ty Lawson.
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02-13-17 | Celtics v. Mavs OVER 208.5 | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
I have to ride the Celtics and over here. Boston has scored at least 106 points in 13 of its last 14 games. The Celtics have put up 112 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of Boston's last 11 road games. |
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02-13-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test.
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02-11-17 | Celtics v. Jazz OVER 205.5 | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jazz are playing their most consistent on offense reaching triple digits in 11 of their last 15 games, including the past five. Boston has reached triple digits in 26 of its last 27 games. The over has cashed in eight of the Celtics' last 10 road games. The teams met early last month and Boston won 115-104 for a combined 219 points. The teams have a history of going over the total when playing in Utah with the over cashing five of the past six times.
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02-10-17 | Hawks -125 v. Kings | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
Not only does Atlanta hold a class difference here, but the Hawks match up well to the Kings. That's continually proven with the Hawks covering 14 of the last 17 in the series, including winning 106-95 in the team's first meeting this season. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Sacramento. The Hawks are playing well winning 16 of their last 22. They have covered 10 of their last 14 on the road. Atlanta holds a backcourt edge with Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr., both of whom are playing at high levels. The Kings' backcourt may be down Ty Lawson, who suffered a leg injury in the Kings' 108-92 win against the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Kings' major weapon - and only consistent one with Rudy Gay out for the season - is big man DeMarcus Cousins. Dwight Howard can neutralize Cousins, though. Howard had 18 points, 11 rebounds and four blocked shots when the Hawks won the earlier meeting by 11 points. Howard limited Cousins to just 14 points in that game. The Kings always have maturity questions. They could be in a major letdown mood after their impressive 16-point victory versus Boston. The Kings achieved that win without Cousins, who was suspended for that game. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS following a victory.
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02-10-17 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves still aren't playing good defense. They've allowed triple digits during their past 12 games. Minnesota gave up 117 points to the Pelicans in the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Pelicans rank 23rd defensively. They just yielded 127 points to the offensively-challenge Jazz. The over has cashed the last five times the teams have met.
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02-10-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 216 | 122-107 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Do not expect a repeat of the Grizzlies 128-119 overtime victory against the Warriors from Jan. 6. The Warriors blew a huge lead in that game and have had this matchup circled ever since. Golden State can play defense ranking No. 1 in 3-point defense and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis allows only 99.1 points per game. Just two teams give up fewer points per game. This is the Grizzlies' third straight home game. They are playing outstanding defense during this homestand holding the Spurs to 74 points and the Suns to 91 points.
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02-09-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 193.5 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Given the current form of these two teams, the total is too low. The Jazz are averaging 114 ponts during their last four games. They are off their two highest scoring games of the season. |
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02-08-17 | Raptors -3 v. Wolves | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
DeMar DeRozan is back and so are the Raptors. Toronto has won two in a row and is looking to reclaim the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. DeRozan had missed seven of eight games with an ankle injury, but returned on Monday in the Raptors' last game and scored 31 points in a 118-109 home win versus the Clippers. Minnesota has dropped four in a row. The Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 115.8 points during their losing streak, most in the league during this span. The team is in a funk after finding that promising guard Zach LaVine is out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. The Raptors can take advantage of Minnesota's lack of depth. Minnesota shot 51.1 percent from the floor when the teams last met on Dec. 8 in Toronto. The Raptors still won, 124-110. That was the ninth time in the last 11 meetings the Raptors have covered versus the Timberwolves, who have failed to also cover in five of their last six games at Target Center.
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02-08-17 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 210 | 91-110 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the 11th-highest scoring team in the NBA, but allows the second-most points per game at 112.6. Memphis has picked up its scoring. The Grizzlies have scored at least 101 points in 11 of their last 13 games. Part of their offensive transformation comes from Marc Gasol enjoying his finest all-around offensive season. The Suns have scored 105 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. Eric Booker is having a monster season for them. However, the Suns have also surrendered at least 111 points in seven of their last eight games. Note, too, that the over has cashed seven of the past eight times the teams have played in Memphis.
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02-08-17 | Suns +10 v. Grizzlies | 91-110 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have a history of playing to the level of their competition and are in a prime flat spot. Memphis just defeated San Antonio, 89-74, at home on Monday and hosts Golden State on Friday. So the Grizzlies can be excused if they overlook the Suns. Phoenix averages 106.6 points a game, 11th-best in the NBA. The Suns shouldn't lack motivation with revenge for a 19-point home loss suffered to the Grizzlies on Jan. 30 and have covered four of their last five road games.
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02-08-17 | Wizards v. Nets +10 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though.
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02-07-17 | Blazers -125 v. Mavs | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas is in a tough spot. The Mavericks just played in Denver's high altitude last night and lost by 23 points. Wesley Matthews limped off the floor in that game so he might not play today. The Mavericks have won only once in 10 tries when playing without rest this season. Portland is in short revenge having lost 108-104 to the Mavericks at home this past Friday. All-Star Damian Lillard was outplayed in that game by unheralded Yogi Ferrell. That's not going to happen again.
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02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
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02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 205 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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02-04-17 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 224.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense. |
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02-04-17 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the day after Christmas to find the last time Orlando won consecutive games. I see a big letdown in store here for the Magic following their 102-94 home win against Toronto Friday night. That victory was just Orlando's third in its last 11 games and fifth in its past 19 games. This is the first time in three weeks the Magic are playing without rest. Orlando averages fewer than 100 points a game. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively. The Hawks have been inconsistent, but should be motivated following a 113-108 win at Houston two days ago when they came from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. A loss to the lowly Magic would just give that victory back. Atlanta has covered the last two times it was laying more than seven points. Saturday Free Play Jazz minus 7 1/2 hosting Hornets The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.
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02-03-17 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break. The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA. |
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02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
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02-02-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Rockets | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't going to go quietly here after getting whipped 116-93 by Miami last night. Look for the Hawks to ramp up their intensity level. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing without rest. Houston has had problems with the Hawks in the past losing the past six times against them while covering only once. The Hawks beat the Rockets by 15 points in their first meeting this season. The Rockets aren't playing as well as they were before when they went 20-2. They are just 5-7 during their last 12 games. Houston has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. James Harden hasn't been 100 percent either dealing with a sore knee. His poor shooting - 6 of 26 from the floor the past two games - reflects that.
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02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. |
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02-01-17 | Hawks -125 v. Heat | 93-116 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami is hot, but Atlanta is the better team. The Hawks have proven that twice already this season beating the Heat in both meetings by three and eight points, respectively. The Heat have won eight in a row, but their last four victories have been against the Nets, Pistons, Bulls and Nets again. This is a step up. Miami also is playing for the fourth time in six days, while the Hawks have had two full days to recover from their four overtime win against the Knicks this past Sunday. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.
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02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +3 | 98-88 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time. Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached. Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here.
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01-31-17 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The spot isn't ideal for either team setting up an under play. The Kings are concluding an eight-game road trip. This is their fourth game in five days and second in two nights. They are not going to look to run with Houston. The Kings will want to slow tempo and try to patiently feed DeMarcus Cousins inside. Cousins is having a huge season, but the Kings do not have a reliable second scoring option with Rudy Gay out with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Houston just got back from five straight road games. So the Rockets might not have their full focus. There is a strong below the total history in this type of situation for Houston with the under cashing 22 of the last 29 times the Rockets have played at home following being away from seven or more days. The Kings have been playing underrated defense, too, surrendering 107 or fewer points during regulation in seven of their last eight games.
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01-30-17 | Cavs -4 v. Mavs | 97-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
In a word, no Dallas can't upset San Antonio and Cleveland on back-to-back days. The Cavaliers are playing better now. Dallas is playing better, too, after a 4-17 start. But the Mavericks don't have near the Cavaliers' talent being two-to-three levels behind them. Deron Williams isn't likely to play leaving the short-handed Dallas backcourt in the hands of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Neither is an NBA starting caliber guard. Cleveland buried Dallas, 128-90, when the teams last met on Nov. 25.
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01-30-17 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 210.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games. |
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01-29-17 | Mavs v. Spurs OVER 195 | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games. However, San Antonio scored just 103 points in a 119-103 road loss to the Pelicans on Friday. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker had just gotten back into the lineup and were rusty. They should be much better now and the Spurs will be motivated to put that loss to the Pelicans behind them with a big scoring effort. San Antonio is weaker defensively with David Lee at center replacing injured Pau Gasol. |
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01-29-17 | Rockets v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Considering the circumstances and matchup, this total is too high. Houston is an up-tempo, high-energy team that launches more 3-pointer than any team. But this marks the end of the Rockets' five-game, nine-day road swing so energy could be lacking. The Pacers also have the necessary perimeter defense to slow down Houston ranking fifth in 3-point defense. The Rockets might be without Eric Gordon, their second-leading scorer, for a third consecutive game. He's dealing with a sore back. Trevor Ariza, the Rockets' fourth-leading scorer, is mired in an 8-for-32 shooting slump during the last four games. Indiana has a reputation as a high-scoring team. But the Pacers are averaging 102.4 points in regulation during their last five games and rank just 14th in scoring.
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01-28-17 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 232 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Even with these two high-scoring teams it's going to be tough to go over a total this high. The Nuggets are going to be without Nikola Jokic, who has been an absolute monster. He has a left hip strain and is out. Denver also could be missing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. He's sat out the last three games with back problems. The teams just met on Thursday and the Nuggets won, 127-120, in Denver. Ancient Jameer Nelson filled in for Mudiay and logged 41:47. He's going to be in trouble trying to handle the pace if Mudiay can't play and he has to log major minutes like that again. This is the team's fourth meeting. So they certainly are familiar with each other, a plus for the under. The Suns are in a triple-revenge spot having lost the first three games of the seasons series to the Nuggets so their intensity level should be raised. It's also the sixth different venue in a row for the Suns so that's another plus for the under.
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01-28-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Heat | 103-116 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the Pistons, who haven't played since Monday when they lost 109-104 at home to the Kings. The Pistons have been pointing to this game since. Miami is off an upset of the Bulls in Chicago last night. The Heat accomplished that without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable here. The Heat have lost six of the past eight times when playing without rest. The Pistons have matched up well to the Heat winning by nine and 23 points.
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01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Despite losing Rudy Gay, the Kings have proven tough on the road in their last three games upsetting the Pistons as a seven-point 'dog, stunning the Cavaliers as a 10 1/2-point 'dog and covering as a 4 1/2-point 'dog in a 115-111 overtime loss to the Pacers last night. But now the Kings have reached the end of their long road swing. This marks their sixth away matchup in nine days. It's too much of a leap of faith to believe the Kings - traditionally a horrible road club - can have much left for Charlotte. The Hornets desperately need this game. They've lost three in a row and take off for a three-game West Coast road trip following this game where they will take on the Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Charlotte has dropped its past seven road games. Hence, the importance of this home matchup for the Hornets. Charlotte has won four of its last six home contests with one of the losses coming to the Warriors. During this span, the Hornets have defeated the Thunder by 11, Trail Blazers by 22 and Raptors by 35. So they're certainly capable of covering this mid-size number against the lottery-bound Kings.
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01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
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01-25-17 | Kings v. Cavs -11 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. |
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01-24-17 | Clippers -3 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
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01-23-17 | Kings v. Pistons -5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
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01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors -11.5 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games and off a 113-78 embarrassing loss to the Hornets on the road this past Friday. That was Toronto's lowest-scoring game of the season. I see the Raptors bouncing back in a big way against the Suns, who are in a rare fat-and-happy state. The Suns just nipped the Knicks, 107-105, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. They return to the desert for a four-game homestand following this matchup. Despite only scoring 78 points against the Hornets, the Raptors are the third-highest scoring team in the league. Phoenix allows the second-most points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. They also are 7-3 ATS following a SU loss. The Raptors have added revenge motivation, too. The Suns defeated them 99-91 on Dec. 29. This marks the Suns' third road game in four days. It's also an early start time for the Suns.
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 224.5 | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under. It's easy to think of offense when thinking about the Warriors with Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But Golden State is No. 1 in defense per 100 possession. The under has cashed in 11 of Golden State's last 12 road games. Orlando ranks 25th offensively. The Magic have failed to break the 98-point barrier in five of their last nine games. The Warriors just defeated the Rockets on the road on Friday night They played at Miami on Monday and at Charlotte on Wednesday. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the Warriors' stars were rested, or had their minutes greatly reduced here. |
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01-21-17 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Maybe it was celebrating Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming the first Milwaukee All-Star starter in 31 years. Maybe it was because the Bucks are young. Maybe it was because Orlando was long overdue. Whatever the case, the Bucks were buried 112-96 by the Magic in Orlando Friday. That was a bad loss for the Bucks and their coach, Jason Kidd, let them know holding a closed locker room meeting for more than a half hour following that defeat. The Bucks hold a talent edge against the Heat and I expect Milwaukee to play much better today. The Bucks have won and covered in seven of their last nine games against Miami, including defeating the Heat, 116-108, eight days ago at home. Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker - who has scored 20 or more points six times in the last eight games - give Milwaukee two of the three best players on the court. The Bucks also have a frontcourt scoring advantage on the Heat despite Miami having Hassan Whiteside and a stronger bench courtesy of Greg Monroe and former Heat Michael Beasley. The Bucks have proven themselves on the road as since Christmas they have beaten the Pistons, Bulls, Knicks and Spurs away from Bradley Center. All of those teams are better than the Heat.
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01-20-17 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | 112-107 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Not only does Utah have the No. 1 defense and Dallas the worst offense, but the spot highly favors the Jazz. Utah last played on Monday. The Mavericks played last night losing 99-95 to Miami on the road. Dallas is 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back games. This also marks Dallas' third game in four days. The Mavericks are ill equipped to handle this kind of load with a veteran, over-the-hill roster. The Jazz are playing at a high level having won four in a row. Not only do the Jazz have the stingiest defense in the league, but their offense has picked up. They are averaging 107.5 points during their winning streak helped by having George Hill back at point guard.
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01-20-17 | Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 125-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
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01-19-17 | Wolves v. Clippers -135 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games. LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
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01-17-17 | Rockets v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3. So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives. Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game. The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty. Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under. |
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01-16-17 | Blazers v. Wizards -3.5 | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington is red-hot at home winning 11 in a row at Verizon Center while going 10-1 ATS in those games. Portland is not a good road club losing 15 of 22 away from home. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 against Eastern Conference foes and are going to be bothered by this early East Coast starting time. The Trail Blazers' strength is their backcourt, but the Wizards match that with John Wall and Bradley Beal.
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01-15-17 | Thunder -120 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
The records show Oklahoma City to be 24-17 and Sacramento to be 16-23. The won-lost marks don't lie. The Thunder are a much superior team to the Kings. Oklahoma City isn't going to overlook, or let down, against the Kings either having lost to Sacramento the last time they met. Following this game, the Thunder are at the Clippers, Warriors and Jazz. The Thunder just lost to the Timberwolves on Friday playing one of their worst games. So this matchup is of great importance to Oklahoma City. As usual, Sacramento isn't playing well. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games and 1-4 in their last five home games. The excitement of playing in their new state-of-the-art arena has worn off. Matchup-wise a big key is rebounding. The Thunder have the third-best rebounding margin in the NBA while the Kings rank 23rd. The Thunder can dominated the boards, which in turns ignites their dangerous fast break headed by Russell Westbrook.
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