Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-30-17 | Nationals v. Giants -119 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Giants - I really like the value here with San Francisco as a short home favorite against the Nationals tonight. These two teams were involved in a heated game yesterday, which included a minor brawl with SF pitcher Hunter Strickland and Nationals star outfield Bryce Harper. I believe there's a decent chance Harper gets suspended and won't play, but even if he does, I really like San Francisco in this spot. Giants will be sending out one of the more underrated starters in baseball in Jeff Samardzija, who has pitched so much better than his 1-6 record and 4.50 ERA in 10 starts. That's evident by Samardzija's 1.118 WHIP in those 10 starts. He's been starting to get the results of late, as he has a 2.49 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It also doesn't hurt that home plate umpire has a history of the home team finishing on top. The home team is 24-15 over the last 3 seasons and 7-2 this year with Mike Dimuro behind home plate. Take San Francisco! |
|||||||
05-29-17 | Mariners +132 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 132 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
5* MLB VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Mariners + I absolutely love the value here with Seattle as a big dog against the Rockies. It's been a rough go of things for the Mariners of late, but they come in off a 5-0 win in yesterday's' series finale against the Red Sox and I look for them to keep it going here against the Rockies, who are getting a little too much love from the books right now. Colorado has actually done most of their damage on the road, where they are 18-8, as they are just 15-11 at home. The big key here is today's starter for the Rockies isn't in good form. Tyler Chatwood is 4-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 starts and has been much worse at home, where his ERA climbs to 6.18 and WHIP jumps to 1.663. Seattle is countering with Sam Gaviglio, who has pitched very well in his two big league starts and that includes an outing against the loaded Nationals lineup. I think he does just enough here, while the offense delivers enough runs to secure the win. Take Seattle! |
|||||||
05-28-17 | Rays v. Twins -104 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Twins - I really like the value here with the Twins at home against the Rays. Minnesota has been rolling of late, as they come in off a 5-3 win on Saturday and are now 7-2 over their last 9. On paper this is going to look like Tampa has the edge on the mount, but I don't think that's the case at all given how well Minnesota is playing. The Twins are averaging 5.6 runs/game and hitting .292 as a team over their last 7 games. Rays are a mere 4-10 in Cobb's last 14 starts during Game 3 of a series and 3-7 in his last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record. Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 against a right-handed starter. Take Minnesota! |
|||||||
05-27-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers +128 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 128 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
5* MLB Situational NO LIMIT Top Play on Brewers + I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced home dog against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is poised for a letdown after winning 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 overall, while the Brewers are in line for a win after dropping their last 5. I know Arizona has Greinke on the mound, but he's not nearly as good on the road as he is at home. In fact, he's got a 2.49 ERA at home this season and 3.60 ERA on the road. Milwaukee's countering with Chase Anderson, who has pitched effectively at home, where he has a 2.78 ERA in 4 starts. Take Milwaukee! |
|||||||
05-26-17 | Orioles +124 v. Astros | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Orioles + I really like the value here with Baltimore as a decently priced road dog against the Astros. The Orioles have lost 4 straight and were just swept in a 3-game series at home by the Twins. I'm expecting to see Baltimore 100% locked in this entire series and the series opener is definitely one they have to feel like they can win with Houston sending out Joe Musgrove, who is 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP in 6 home starts (1-5 team record). I know the numbers aren't great for Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman, but the talent is there and he's coming off one of his better outings, giving up just 2 runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. Many would be surprised to know that the Astros are just 5-16 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning record. Orioles on the other hand are 20-12 in their last 32 games played at night and 33-18 in their last 51 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Baltimore! |
|||||||
05-26-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -114 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* MLB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Brewers - I really like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Brewers are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting shutout in the opener and suffering their 4th straight loss overall. Milwaukee will be getting a big boost to the rotation tonight, as they welcome back Junior Guerra, who was one of the stars of this rotation in 2016, as he went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 20 starts. It's worth noting that he was much better at home than on the road in 2016, posting a 2.23 ERA over 9 home outings. Arizona is countering with Zack Godley, who has some great numbers through 4 starts, but I just don't trust him. There's been some concerning signs for me the last two time outs. Two starts ago he walked 5 hitters and last time out he managed just 1 strikeout after totaling no fewer than 6 in each of his first 3 starts. Keep in mind this is a Brewers team that is averaging a solid 5.5 runs/game at home this season. Take Milwaukee! |
|||||||
05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins -121 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line Heavy Hitter on Marlins - I really like the value here with Miami as a short home favorite against the Angels. The Marlins will send out Daniel Straily, who isn't getting near the respect he deserves given how well he's thrown the ball at home this season. Straily has a 1.95 ERA and 0.832 WHIP over 5 home starts. The Angels offense had been clicking, but they have scored 4 or fewer in 4 straight games, with just 2 combined runs over their last 2. Angels will send out Jesse Chavez, who has a 4.36 ERA overall, 4.81 ERA on the road and 4.91 ERA over his last 3. Chavez is 0-11 in his last 11 road starts as an underdog, while Straily has gone 15-6 against the money line in his last 21 starts on his home field. Take Miami! |
|||||||
05-25-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -146 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night Money Line Annihilator on Dodgers - I got no problem playing LA at this price tonight against the Cardinals. The Dodgers are going to send out Kenta Maeda, who had a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in his final 3 starts before a trip to the DL. I look for him to come out and return right to form, as the injury was to his legs and not his arm. Even if Maeda isn't on top of his game, I look for LA's offense to provide him with some decent run support here. St Louis is sending out Michael Wacha, who hasn't looked good on the road, posting a 3.75 ERA along with an ugly 1.500 WHIP in 2 starts. Cardinals won yesterday, but that's actually good thing here, as the Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 following a loss. LA is also 46-16 in their last 62 home games against a right-handed starter. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-24-17 | Angels -102 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
5* MLB Game of the Month on Angels - I'm sticking with LA, as they continue to cash for me on the bases. The Angels have taken each of the first two games in this series and have won 3 straight and 7 of 9 overall. Tampa Bay has lost 3 in a row and a big part of their struggles has been their ability to get anything going at the plate. The Rays were shutout yesterday and have scored just 4 runs over their last 3 games combined. I look for Tampa's offense to continue to struggle here against LA's Ricky Nolasco, who has been throwing much better of late. Nolasco has a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Rays are going to counter with Erasmo Ramirez, who has pitched well in his 2 starts in 2017, but doesn't go deep in games and with the way Mike Trout is swinging the bat, I like the Angels' chances of getting to him early. Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in their last 10 home games and 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less. Angels are 20-7 in their last 27 games played on astroturf, 6-2 after allowing 2 runs or less and 5-1 in their last 7 after a win. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-23-17 | Padres +120 v. Mets | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego in this one. It's no surprise to see the Padres struggling this season, but they are just 2-games back in the win column of the Mets. San Diego was able to snap a 5-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Diamondbacks on Sunday and I look for them to carry over that momentum on the road against a struggling Mets team that is a mere 2-8 in their last 10 games. New York is starting Matt Harvey, who simply isn't the same guy anymore, at least not right now. Harvey has a 5.56 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 8 starts (2-6 team record) and is trending in the wrong direction with a 8.05 ERA and 2.107 WHIP in his last 3 starts. San Diego will counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who has been lights out of late, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
05-22-17 | Angels -101 v. Rays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational No Brainer on Angels - Los Angeles is showing some great value here against the Rays on Monday. The Angels have been playing much better baseball of late and a lot of that has to do with the play of Mike Trout, who has 6 homers and 13 RBI, while hitting .333 with a ridiculous .522 OBP over the last 14 days. When he has it going like he does right now, he can carry this team on his back. He's certainly enjoyed playing at Tropicana Field, where he's hitting a cool .362 over his career. While Trout gets the offense going, I look for Angels starter J.C. Ramirez to keep the Rays' bats in check. Ramirez has a not so great 1-3 record, but has a solid 3.80 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 7 starts and will have an advantage here with this being his first career start against the Rays. Take Los Angeles! We also have a strong system in play favoring the Angeles. We want to play against teams that scored and allowed 3 runs or less in their last game with a money line of +125 to -125 against an opponent that just played in a game where 15 or more runs were scored. These teams are just 16-41 over the last 5 seasons, which turns into a 72% system in favor of the Angels. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-22-17 | Rockies v. Phillies -117 | 8-1 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Heavy Hitter on Phillies - I really like the value here with the Phillies as a short home favorite against the Rockies today. This is a tough spot for Colorado who just had to travel again an is playing their 7th straight game away from home. The Rockies also are sending out spot starter Jeff Hoffman, who struggled in his first outing of 2017, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits in 5 1/3. Philadelphia is countering here with Jerad Eickhoff, who is way undervalued right now beacuse of his 0-4 record and 4.73 ERA in 8 starts. Eickhoff is coming off a strong start in his outing at Texas, giving up just 2 earned runs in 6 innings of work. While Colorado is continuing on their road trip, the Phillies are returning home from there's and are 55-26 over their last 81 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. It's also worth noting that the Rockies are a mere 1-6 in Hoffman's last 7 starts. Take Philadelphia! |
|||||||
05-21-17 | Indians +100 v. Astros | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
5* Indians/Astros NO LIMIT Top Play on Indians + I really like the value here on Cleveland at a pick'em in Sunday's series finale against the Astros. The Indians have already taken the first two games of the series and I look for them to finish off the sweep. I know it's been a rough go of things for Cleveland starter Danny Salazar of late, but he's owned the free-swinging Astros in his career, posting a 1.47 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 3 career starts. He's also facing a slumping Houston offense, which has scored a mere 6 runs in their last 3 games combined. Indians are 8-1 in Salazar's last 9 starts after losing in his previous start and 7-1 in his last 8 against a team with a winning record. Houston is 3-12 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
05-20-17 | Rockies v. Reds -121 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Heavy Hitter on Reds - I'm not afraid to back Cincinnati on a 7-game losing streak. If anything the Reds are due for a win, but that's not why I'm playing them. It's the value in backing Cincinnati at this price on their home field, where they have played well (6-2 L8 home games). The offense for the Reds has been producing, which is typically not what you see for a team that has lost 7 in a row, as they have scored 21 runs over their last 4 games. I like their chances of keeping it going at the plate against the struggling Antonio Senzatela, who enters with a 4.24 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Tim Adleman will take the mound for the Reds and he's got a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 3 home starts and will have a live arm in this one, as he had to leave his last start early with back tightness, which is no longer a problem. Take Cincinnati! |
|||||||
05-19-17 | Indians +125 v. Astros | 5-3 | Win | 125 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Indians + The Astros come into this one having won 4 straight and 9 of 10 overall, while Cleveland has stumbled to a 2-5 record over their last 7. On paper it looks like Houston has the big edge on the mound here. Trevor Bauer of the Indians is 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA in 4 road starts and Charlie Morton of the Astros is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in 5 home starts. All of this and Houston is a short home favorite. The books are begging for action on the Astros. I'm not taking the bait. Bauer has owned Houston in his career, going a perfect 6-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 6 starts. That includes an earlier start this season, where he struck out 8 in a Indians win. Take Cleveland! |
|||||||
05-19-17 | Blue Jays +103 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Heavy Hitter on Blue Jays + I like the value here with Toronto, who has started to play up to their potential, going 8-4 over their last 12 games. Baltimore, on the other hand, lost the final 2 games of a 3 game series at Detroit and are just 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Blue Jays are going to send out Aaron Sanchez, who has a 2.95 ERA in 4 starts and is going to be motivated here, as 5 of the 6 earned runs he has allowed this season have come against these Orioles. Keep in mind he allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his previous 5 starts against Baltimore. Orioles counter with their veteran ace Chris Tillman. He's making just his 3rd start of the season and while the numbers are strong over the first two outings, they came against the White Sox and Royals, who are both in the bottom 3 in runs scored in the AL. Tillman has also struggled with control (5 walks in 9 1/3 innings) and has yet to complete more than 5 innings in a start. Take Toronto! |
|||||||
05-18-17 | Red Sox v. A's -106 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
5* AL Game of the Month on A's - I really like the value here with the A's at basically a pick'em at home against the Red Sox. Oakland isn't a great team and are sitting at 17-23 overall, but are a respectable 11-8 at home and will be sending out their ace in Sonny Gray, who is getting better and better with each start. In his 3 starts so far, Gray has posted a 3.78 ERA and was really sharp in lone outing at home, giving up just 1 earned run. He's made one start at home against Boston and it was a good one, holding the Red Sox to just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings. Boston comes in off a thrilling 5-4 come-from-behind win last night in St. Louis, which went 13 innings. They didn't get much time to relax before taking the long flight out west and I look for them to come out a little flat here. They also are bringing up Hector Velazquez to make his major league debut. I don't think he goes very deep here and the bullpen is a bit taxed after throwing 16 innings in their last 3 games. Take Oakland! |
|||||||
05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -125 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line No Brainer on Padres - I like the value here with San Diego behind today's starter Jhoulys Chacin, who has been nearly unhitable at home this season. Chacin has made 3 starts at Petco Park and allowed a mere 1 run on 10 hits over 20 innings of work. That comes out to a 0.45 ERA. Those 3 starts have come against the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks, so it's not like he's just taking advantage of bad teams. The same can't be said for Milwaukee starter Matt Garza, who has made 4 starts all against teams that currently don't have a winning record. It's also worth noting that pitching on the road early in the year has been a bit of a problem for Garza in his career, as his team has gone just 3-17 in his last 20 starts in the month of May. The Brewers are just 4-12 in his last 16 starts overall and 3-10 in his last 13 road starts against a team with a losing record. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
05-16-17 | Brewers v. Padres -115 | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night Money Line Annihilator on Padres - I cashed in my free pick on the Padres yesterday and I like the value once again with San Diego in the second game of this 4-game set. I just felt this would be a tough series for the Brewers, who just played so well at home and had to make the long trip out west before returning back east for a huge series at Chicago. San Diego starter Clayton Richard is coming off a very strong outing against the Rangers and I look for him to carry over that success here. Milwaukee counters with Jimmy Nelson, who just isn't the same on the road as he is at home and just 1-3 in 4 career starts against the Padres. San Diego is 7-2 in Richards last 9 starts against a team with a winning record, while the Brewers are 4-11 in Nelson's last 15 road starts and 1-9 in his last 10 starts when pitching on only 4 days of rest. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
05-16-17 | Orioles v. Tigers -117 | 13-11 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Orioles/Tigers MLB Heavy Hitter on Tigers - I like the value here with Detroit as a short home favorite against the Orioles. The Tigers will send out lefty Matt Boyd, who has been excellent at home, posting a 2.61 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 3 starts. Baltimore's Wade Miley has pitched better than expected so far, but there's been some real concerning signs of late, most notably his 2.343 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a part of that is 9 walks in his last 2 road outings. Baltimore as a team is just 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 when playing after a day off. Tigers just finished up a long road trip and are 7-1 in their last 8 home games after playing on a road trip that lasted 7 or more days. They are also 14-3 in their last 17 following an off day and 36-16 in their last 52 in Game 1 of a series. Take Detroit! |
|||||||
05-15-17 | Mets +103 v. Diamondbacks | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Vegas Insider on Mets + Like the value here with New York at basically a pick'em on the road against the Diamondbacks. While the Mets come in having lost 4 straight, it hasn't been from a lack of offense. New York has scored no fewer than 4 and a combined 23 runs during their losing streak. The offense has really been rolling since the beginning of May, which included a 5-1 stretch before this recent skid. They take that hot offense to one of the more hitter-friendly parks in Chase Field and a pissed off attitude after being swept in their most recent 3-game series at Milwaukee. Arizona got off to that hot start, but are just 4-7 in their last 11 games and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of those 11 games. Zack Wheeler for the Mets has a not so great 4.17 ERA on the season, but owns a 3.06 ERA over his last 3 and a 2.33 ERA in 3 career starts against the Diamondbacks. Take New York! |
|||||||
05-14-17 | A's +117 v. Rangers | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on A's - I really like the value here with Oakland as a decently priced road dog. The A's will send out Kendall Graveman, who has a solid 3.67 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 6 starts and has owned the Rangers in his last two outings against them,including one this season where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits over 7 innings of a 6-1 win at Texas against their ace Yu Darvish. This time he faces A.J. Griffin, who I believe has pitched above his true ability here in the first month and is going to regress. He threw a complete game shutout last time out, but also threw a season-high 104 pitches in the process. Note he had only threw more than 90 pitches in 1 other starts and that as a mere 91. Take Oakland! |
|||||||
05-13-17 | Reds v. Giants -128 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants - I really like the value here with San Francisco as a short home favorite against the Reds. The Giants will be sending out Matt Moore, who has been sensational when taking the mound at AT&T Park since coming to San Francisco. Moore is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 8 starts at AT&T Park. His most recent home start was against the Dodgers on 4/27 and he held them to 1 run on a mere 2 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. On the flip side of this, the Reds are going to be countering with Lisalverto Bonilla, who hadn't pitched in the majors the previous two year before making a relief appearance with the Reds this season. He went 5 innings in relief and allowed 4 runs with 3 walks. I just don't see him going deep here and I look for the nerves to get the best of him in his first start since Sept. 24th of 2015. Take San Francisco! |
|||||||
05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockies/Dodgers UNDER It can be hard to even think about backing the OVER with Kershaw on the mound, but I believe that thought process by the public has created some great value here. Kershaw isn't super human at Coors Field, where he has a 4.71 ERA in 18 career starts. That includes a start at Colorado in early April, where he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits (3 HRs). The ball is flying even better at Coors now, as temps are starting to creep up, plus tonight there's a 13 mph wind blowing straight out to left. Even if Kershaw is great, there's a decent chance the Dodgers could put up 10 runs on their own, as they face Tyler Chatwood, who has a 5.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. LA's offense has scored 7 or more in 4 of their last 6 and at least 4 runs in each of those 6 games. Take the OVER! |
|||||||
05-12-17 | Orioles v. Royals +108 | 2-3 | Win | 108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Heavy Hitter on Royals + I really like the value here with Kansas City at home. It's been a brutal start for the Royals, who are 13-21 overall. However, they are right around .500 at home and are playing well right now having just won 3 of 4 on the road against the Rays. They will send out their ace in the opener against the Orioles in Danny Duffy, who was sharp last time out and has a solid 3.50 ERA in 7 starts. Most importantly is Duffy's success against Baltimore, as he owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 5 career starts against them. Orioles are coming off a highly competitive home and home series against the Nationals and I look for a bit of a letdown here in the opener. Note the Orioles are just 2-11 in their last 13 after playing 3 straight interleague games against the same opponent. Take Kansas City! |
|||||||
05-11-17 | Pirates +111 v. Diamondbacks | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Pirates + I really like the value here with Pittsburgh as a decently priced road dog against the Diamondbacks. Pirates will send out Gerrit Cole, who is the ace of this staff and back to form in 2017 with a 3.14 ERA in 7 starts. Clearly he's pitched much better than his 1-3 record and he comes in with a 1.35 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That includes a strong outing at Cincinnati, which like Arizona has a very hitter-friendly park. Diamondbacks counter with the well known Zack Greinke, who has been solid to start the season, but owns a 5.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Pirates. Take Pittsburgh! |
|||||||
05-10-17 | Red Sox v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Red Sox/Brewers OVER 9.5 The Red Sox and Brewers should have no problem combining for 10 or more runs tonight. These two put up 18 in the series opener last night with two of the better pitchers for both teams on the mound. Tonight it's Kyle Kendrick for Boston, who is one of a few guys who could start for the Red Sox and not be listed as a favorite against a team like the Brewers. Milwaukee's starter is Chase Anderson, who does have a respectable 2.86 ERA in 6 starts, but is not an elite guy and is trending in the wrong direction with a 4.32 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's facing a Boston offense that is on fire, scoring 35 runs on 43 hits in their last 3 games. Both teams have the potential to put up a big number in this one. Take the OVER 9.5! |
|||||||
05-09-17 | Giants +106 v. Mets | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Giants + It's been a troubling start for the Giants, who are now 11-22 through their first 33 games. The poor start is going to have San Francisco showing a lot of value, as they are a lot better than their record right now and I believe there's a ton of value here with the Giants. San Francisco is sending out Jeff Samardzija, who has been straight dealing in his last two outings. He allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits over 7 innings at home against the Padres on 4/28 and followed that up in his most recent start with an outing on the road against the Dodgers, where he gave up 1 run (0 earned) on 3 hits with 11 strikeouts in 8 innings. He's going up against Zack Wheeler, who didn't even last 5 innings in his last outing and has a 5.62 ERA in 3 home starts. Take San Francisco! |
|||||||
05-09-17 | Cardinals v. Marlins -111 | 6-5 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* MLB No Doubt Heavy Hitter on Marlins - I like the value here with Miami as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. The Marlins are going to be extra motivated here after dropping the series opener last night and I also think we are seeing St Louis getting a little more respect than they should with veteran Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright was the former ace of this staff, but he's certainly not pitching like one in 2017. He's 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.967 WHIP in 6 starts and has a 7.24 ERA and 2.268 WHIP in 3 road starts. Marlins counter with Daniel Straily, who is one of the more underrated starters when pitching at home, where he owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 3 starts. Take Miami! |
|||||||
05-08-17 | Cardinals v. Marlins +110 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
5* NL Game of the Month on Marlins + I really like the value here with Miami as a home dog against the Cardinals. Most will want to back Carlos Martinez off a quality start last time out, but he's been erratic so far this season and owns a 6.10 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in 2 road starts. Marlins will counter with Adam Conley, who has a not so great 6.00 ERA in 5 starts, but really one has one bad outing. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts. On top of that the Cardinals as a team average just 2.2 runs/game with a ugly .198 batting average against left-handed starters this season. Take Miami! |
|||||||
05-07-17 | Giants v. Reds +100 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Reds + I like the value here with Cincinnati at home against the Giants. San Francisco is suppose to be the better team in 2017, but the Reds are playing the better baseball over the first month. Cincinnati comes in having won 4 straight and are absolutely on fire at the plate, totaling 10 or more hits in 4 straight games. Giants will send out Johnny Cueto, who is a big name, but he's not pitched like an ace early, despite a 4-1 record. Cueto owns a 4.86 ERA in 6 starts, 5.62 ERA in 4 starts on the road and 6.00 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Cincinnati! |
|||||||
05-06-17 | Tigers v. A's -135 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night Heavy Hitter on A's - I like this spot for Oakland at home with one of their best pitchers on the mound. The A's are sending out Jesse Hahn, who has a 2.08 ERA and sensational 0.962 WHIP in 4 starts this season. On the flip side of this the Tigers are giving the rock to Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 6.18 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 5 starts. It's also worth noting here that Hahn is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 3 career starts against Detroit. Take Oakland! |
|||||||
05-06-17 | Astros v. Angels +115 | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* MLB Undervalued Underdog on Angels + I really like the value here with LA as a home dog against the Astros. Houston is sitting at 20-10 and are going to be overvalued by the books. I just feel like this the Angels have a big enough edge on the mound that this worth a shot. The Astros are going to start Lance McCullers, who has made two starts on the road this season and has an ugly 9.65 ERA and 2.036 WHIP in those two outings. On the flip side of this, LA is giving the rock to J.C. Ramirez, who has a 2.55 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in his last 3 starts and tossed 7 scoreless in his only start at home this season. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-05-17 | Giants v. Reds -113 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Reds - I like the value here with Cincinnati as a small home favorite against the Giants. The Reds are playing well at the moment, as they have won 4 of their last 5. San Fran just took 2 of 3 against the Dodgers in LA, but haven't won back-to-back games since early April. In fact, they are 1-9 this season off a win. The Giants are also just 5-10 on the road and a mere 4-10 against right-handed starters. They send out veteran Matt Cain, who hasn't been nearly as sharp on the road, where he owns a 3.97 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in two starts. Cain has allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 6 starts against the Reds and faces a confident Cincinnati offense that has racked up 21 hits over their last two games. Take Cincinnati! |
|||||||
05-05-17 | Cardinals v. Braves -114 | 10-0 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB No Doubt Money Line Annihilator on Braves - I like the value here with Atlanta as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. St Louis comes in having lost 3 of 4 against the likes of the Brewers and Reds, who I would put on a similar level in terms of talent as the Braves. While Atlanta is 11-15 overall they are .500 at home and the Cardinals have a losing road record at 4-6. Cardinals will send out Lance Lynn, who despite a 2.45 ERA overall, has a 4.09 ERA in 2 road starts. Atlanta counters with Mike Foltynewicz, who has pitched better than his record. Foltynewicz is 0-3 in 4 starts, but owns a 2.28 ERA and 1.183 WHIP. He's been even better than that of late, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Atlanta! |
|||||||
05-04-17 | Rockies v. Padres -109 | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Padres - I really like the value here with the Padres at basically a pick'em at home against the Rockies. These two teams have split the first two in the series and I give the emotional edge here to San Diego. Colorado is finishing up a 6-game road trip that they have already secured a .500 record on and will find it difficult to not look ahead to their return home after this game. It's been a good start to the season for Kyle Freeland, who is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA, but it's not as good as the numbers would suggest. Freeland's been fortunate to not give up more runs, as he owns an ugly 1.446 WHIP and has just 8 strikeouts in his last 17 innings of work. It's also worth noting that he faced these same Padres back on 4/12 and was rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 4 2/3 innings. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
05-03-17 | Angels +103 v. Mariners | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line Heavy Hitter on Angels + I really like the value here with the Angels at basically a pick'em against the Mariners. The public is backing the Mariners at more than a 60% clip, yet we have seen this line drop from Seattle -125 down to less than -110. The sharp money is on LA and I couldn't agree more. The Angels rallied late to take the series opener 6-4 last night and are now 7-1 over their last 8 games. Ricky Nolasco will get his second crack at the Mariners. He held them to just 2 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings of a 5-4 Angels win back on 4/8. Nolasco has had just one poor outing in 5 starts this season and comes in having pitched well in each of his last two outings. Seattle will counter with the veteran Hisashi Iwakuma, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Iwakuma has walked 11 and surrendered 6 home runs in 5 starts. I look for the Angels offense to stay hot and score enough to secure the win. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
05-02-17 | Pirates v. Reds -125 | 12-3 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Reds - I really like the value here with Cincinnati as a short home favorite against the Pirates. I cashed in a free pick yesterday on the Reds. A lot of the same reasons to why I liked them apply here. I think the books are treating Pittsburgh like an NL Wild Card contender, when this is clearly not the same team without Starling Marte. They are also missing David Freese (DL) right now. Cincinnati isn't a playoff team either, but I like that at home here. Pirates are going to send out youngster Tyler Glasnow, who is regarded as a top prospect, but not pitching like one. Glasnow is 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.454 WHIP in 4 starts. He's allowed 23 hits and 13 walks in a mere 14 2/3 innings of work. I'll take my chances here with Reds starter Scott Feldman, who has pitched well in 3 home starts (3.24 ERA). Take Cincinnati! |
|||||||
05-01-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under Total Annihilator on Red Sox/Orioles UNDER I like the value here on the total and Monday's game going under the mark set by the books. While the calendar turns to May, it's going to feel like an early April game tonight, as temps are in the low 50's with winds blowing straight in from center at roughly 10 mph. On top of that, we have two very capable starters going in this one. Boston sends out reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, who has pitched well in all but one start and comes in off two strong outings. Porcello was dominant in his last two starts against the Orioles, allowing 3 runs on a mere 8 hits over 17 innings. Baltimore will counter with one of the elite young starters in the game in Dylan Bundy, who is 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 5 starts. That includes a recent start at home against these Red Sox, where he tossed 7 shutout innings. UNDER is 11-2 in Bundy's last 13 starts in night games. Take the UNDER! |
|||||||
04-30-17 | Angels -105 v. Rangers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
4* MLB Afternoon Money Line Smash on Angels - I like the value here with Los Angeles in their series finale against the Rangers. The Angels lost yesterdays' game 3-6, but are still 5-1 over their last 7. LA will send out JC Ramirez, who was sensational in his last outing, allowing just 2 hits over 7 shutout innings. Ramirez has struck out an impressive 16 batters over his last 2 starts, which spans just 12 1/3 innings. LA has been much better at the plate against left-handed starters and I look for them to put up a decent number here against Rangers starter Martin Perez, who has a 4.91 ERA and 1.840 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Perez does have a 3.81 ERA overall, but his 1.731 WHIP on the year lets us know he's not pitched as well as the ERA would suggest. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
04-29-17 | Padres +124 v. Giants | 12-4 | Win | 124 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Padres + I like the value here with San Diego as a decently priced road dog against the struggling Giants. San Francisco is a mere 9-15 overall and just 3-6 in their last 9. The Giants simply aren't producing at the plate, as they haven't had more than 8 hits in 7 straight games. When you can't score runs it's hard to win, even against a poor team like San Diego. Giants won yesterday, but are a mere 16-35 in their last 51 off a win. They are also 3-7 in their last 10 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-12 in Cain's last 16 home starts against a team with a losing record. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
04-29-17 | Rockies +128 v. Diamondbacks | 7-6 | Win | 128 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line Heavy Hitter on Rockies + I like the value here with Colorado as a decently priced road dog against the Diamondbacks. The Rockies have been a big surprise early, as they are 15-9 through their first 24 games. This is going to look like a pitching mismatch in favor of Arizona with them sending out Zack Greinke, but I don't see it that way. Greinke has pitched well in his last few starts, but hasn't been the same guy since coming to Arizona and owns a less than impressive 4.14 ERA and 1.398 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Rockies. Note that Colorado is 8-3 on the road and 11-5 against division opponents. Diamondbacks are also a mere 3-13 in their last 16 home games against a teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game. Take Colorado! |
|||||||
04-29-17 | Pirates v. Marlins -119 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* National League Game of the Month on Marlins - I really like the value here with the Marlins as a short home favorite against the Pirates. Miami has held the difficult task of playing 14 of their first 21 games on the road, which makes their 10-11 record look a lot better. Pittsburgh isn't the same team without Starling Marte and are getting way to much respect on the road here. Pirates will send out Ivan Nova, who has pitched well so far, but Miami counters with Daniel Straily, who has a 2.08 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.74 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in his two starts at home. Straily has gone an impressive 10-1 on the money line when starting at home with a money line of +125 to -125 and is a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts on Saturday. Take Miami! |
|||||||
04-28-17 | Angels -117 v. Rangers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Sharp Action Heavy Hitter on Angels - Oddsmakers are making it pretty clear who has the edge in this one, making the Rangers a home dog off a 14-3 win last time out and with a starter in Nick Martinez who just allowed 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. The public will be all over Texas here, but I'm going the other way with LA. The Angels are playing well, having won 4 straight and send out a red-hot Tyler Skaggs , who has allowed just 2 runs on 11 hits in his last two stats (went 7 innings in both starts). Let's also not overlook the fact that Martinez owns a 4.37 ERA in his career, which includes 51 starts. Texas is a mere 1-6 in Martinez's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
04-28-17 | White Sox +118 v. Tigers | 7-3 | Win | 118 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on White Sox + I really like the value here with the White Sox as a road dog against the Tigers. Not much was expected of Chicago, but they are 11-9 and enter this game having won 4 straight. The White Sox will have a little extra motivation here, as starter Mike Pelfrey will be facing the team that cut him at the end of spring training. They are also catching Detroit at a good time, as Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez are both on the DL. Tigers will give the ball to Matt Boyd, who has solid numbers at 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA, but he's been a bit fortunate and his 1.554 WHIP backs that up. Simply too much value to pass up. Take Chicago! |
|||||||
04-27-17 | Mariners +131 v. Tigers | 2-1 | Win | 131 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird Money Line Annihilator on Mariners + I really like the value here with Mariners as a big road dog against the Tigers. Detroit is getting a ton of respect from the books here because of the fact that they send out their ace Justin Verlander, but he's not been throwing like an ace of late. Verlander has failed to make it past the 5th inning in each of his last two starts, where he allowed 13 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks. He will be facing a Seattle offense that has score 8 or more runs in 3 straight games. The Mariners will counter Verlander with veteran Hisashi Iwakuma, who hasn't been great through 4 starts, but has thrown it much better on the road than at home. Iwakuma has a 3.12 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 3 road starts. He faces a Tigers offense that is lacking confidence after getting shutout yesterday and still playing without star first baseman Miguel Cabrera. Take Seattle! |
|||||||
04-27-17 | Marlins -107 v. Phillies | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Oddsmakers Line Mistake on Marlins - I like the value here with Miami at basically a pick'em on the road against the Phillies. While these two teams come in with identical records, I believe the Marlins are the more talented team. I know the Phillies enter having won 5 straight and will be sending out a red-hot Jeremy Hellickson, but I still like Miami in this one. The Marlins are an impressive 16-7 in their last 23 against a NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better. Take Miami! |
|||||||
04-26-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -125 | 8-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
4* MLB Situational Money Line Smash on Diamondbacks - I really like the value here with Arizona as a short home favorite against the Padres. The Diamondbacks are off to a respectable 14-8 start and come in having gone 7-3 over their last 10 games. The Padres on the other hand have lost 4 straight and are a mere 3-9 over their last 12. San Diego is one of, if not, the worst team in baseball. I'll gladly take my chances here with Arizona behind today's starter Zach Godley, who has looked sharp early for Triple-A Reno. San Diego counters with Trevor Cahill, who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 2 road starts and figures to be in for a long day here against a red-hot Diamondbacks offense that has produced 42 runs over their last 5 games. Take Arizona! |
|||||||
04-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Angels -121 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Oddsmakers Error on Angels - I really like the value here with the Angels as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays. While Toronto has played better of late, they are still just 3-4 in their last 7. I'll take my chances here with the Angels against Blue Jays starter Francisco Liriano, who comes in with a 5.11 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in 3 starts. This will be just the second start away from home for Liriano and the first was not good, as he recorded just 1 out before being pulled after allowing 5 runs. He pitched better at home in his last two starts, but I look for the road woes to continue. Angels have been a great bet when the books have them listed as a favorite, as long as they aren't a massive one. Los Angeles is 55-25 over the last 3 seasons when listed as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 45-19 in this same spot at home. Take Los Angeles! |
|||||||
04-23-17 | Cardinals -110 v. Brewers | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
4* MLB Vegas Oddsmakers Error on Cardinals - I really like the value here with St Louis as a short road favorite against the Brewers. The Cardinals have won the last two games of the series after dropping the opener and are now 5-1 since that dreadful 2-9 start to the season. The offense is finally starting to heat up and that's a big reason I like St. Louis on Sunday. The Cardinals don't figure to need a big day offensively to win this game, as they send out Mike Leake, who is quietly off to a sensational start to 2017. He's made 3 starts and allowed a total of just 2 runs with 1 walk over 21 1/3 innings (at least 6 1/3 in all 3 starts). I have respect for Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson, but he's hit or miss and has had a miserable time against these Cardinals. Nelson is 0-6 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Cardinals. Take St Louis! |
|||||||
04-22-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles -112 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line Massacre on Orioles - This is an excellent price to back the Orioles at home against the Red Sox, especially when you factor in the edge Baltimore has on the mound in this one. Boston will send out Steven Wright, who I just don't trust early on. Wright pitched well in his last start at home against the Rays, but was atrocious in his first two outings, which includes a start at home against these Orioles. In the outing against Baltimore, Wright allowed 8 runs on 8 hits (4 HRs) before he was yanked from the game with 1 out in the 2nd inning. It's also worth noting the Red Sox as a team are just 3-11 in their last 14 road games and 1-6 in their last 7 road game against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Baltimore will be calling up Jayson Aquino to make a start here. Typically this would be a cause for concern, but the 24-year-old impressed enough in spring training and early on this season to earn this opportunity. The Orioles as a team have won 3 straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. They are also 9-1 in their last 10 at home 14-3 in their last 17 during game 2 of a series and 8-3 in their last 11 off a win. Take Baltimore! |
|||||||
04-21-17 | Marlins v. Padres +103 | 3-5 | Win | 103 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Late Night Vegas Sharp Play on Padres + I like the value we are getting with San Diego as a short dog at home against the Marlins. I know the Padres aren't expected to do much this year, but it's not like Miami is a serious playoff contender. San Diego is a respectable 4-2 at home this year and come in having just won the final 2 games at home in their series against the Diamondbacks. Not a great spot for the Marlins, who are a long way from home on their current 9-game road trip. Miami's Adam Conley isn't anything special and while he's pitched well in his two starts both came against division rival New York. His ERA was more than a full run higher (4.43) on the road compared to at home (3.26) last year. Take San Diego! |
|||||||
04-21-17 | Astros -110 v. Rays | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Oddsmakers Play of the Day on Astros - I like the value here with Astros as a short road dog against the Rays. Houston is one of the elite teams in the AL and are playing lights out right now, having gone 7-1 over their last 8 games. The Rays aren't as bad as people think, but are outclassed here. Tampa will send out Alex Cobb, who I just don't trust early on. Cobb pitched great in his first start against the Yankees, but has really struggled since. He gave up 4 runs on 6 hits against the same Yankees team in his second outing and then allowed 4 runs no 11 hits without a single strikeout in his last start at Boston. I'll take my chances that Houston's offense will be able to put up a big enough number here to secure the win behind today's starter Michael Fiers, who pitched very well against these Rays in two starts last year. Take Houston! |
|||||||
04-20-17 | Royals v. Rangers +107 | 0-1 | Win | 107 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line Smash on Rangers + I really like the value here with Texas as a short home dog against the Royals. The Rangers come in having gone just 1-5 in their last 6, but a big reason for the struggles was the fact that they were in the midst of a 9-game road trip. Texas has answered in this spot in the past, as they are 4-1 in their last 5 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days. The Rangers also are a strong bet to open any series, as they are 15-6 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. Royals aren't the same team on the road as they are at home and are just getting a little too much respect here with Duffy on the mound. KC is 1-7 in their last 8 road games against a right-handed starter, 1-4 in Duffy's last 5 road starts and 1-9 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. Take Texas! |
|||||||
04-20-17 | Orioles v. Reds +107 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MLB Undervalued Underdog on Reds + I really like the value here with Cincinnati as a home dog against the Orioles. While Baltimore won yesterday's game, they have scored just 5 runs in the first two games of this series and the lack of a DH is certainly not helping them. I'll take my chances here with the Reds behind Scott Feldman, who has a strong 2.87 ERA in 3 starts and has allowed just 2 runs over his last 11 inning. Baltimore counters with Wade Miley, who I don't trust on the road. It's also worth noting that Miley has gone 5-12 against the money line in his last 17 starts as a favorite of -150 or less. Reds on the other hand are an impressive 12-4 in their last 16 home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less in their previous game. Take Cincinnati! |